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HAUNTED BY WAR: NAGORNO-KARABAKH US-RUSSIA REDUX: THE PROBLEM WITH INTELLECTUAL INSINCERITY
THE CASPIAN PROJECT A WEEKLY EDITION BY
AZERBAIJAN: WHAT AWAITS BEYOND STICKS AND CARROTS THE NEXT GREAT EMERGING MARKET BOOK REVIEWS ASTANA: A CITY ANALYSIS AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENT NO ‘LOVE ME NOT’ FOR THE BLOSSOMING CULTURAL SCENE IN BAKU
www.moderndiplomacy.eu PROJECT TEAM DIMITRIS GIANNAKOPOuLOS DR. MATTHEW CROSSTON TEJA PALKO PETRA POSEGA LuíSA MONTEIRO GABRIELA PASCHOLATI DO AMARAL
HAUNTED bY WAR: NAgORNO-KARAbAKH No formal or iNTErNaTioNal rEcogNiTioN of sovereignty, no peace and no solution in foreseeable future. The international importance of territory and the whole region leading to unsuccessful involvement of international organizations, neighboring countries and world powers is reality that describes Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Defense Editor Teja Palko is a Slovenian writer. She finished studies on Master’s Degree programme in Defense Science at the Faculty of Social Science at University in Ljubljana.
Ethnic “frozen” conflict between the formal Soviet countries Republic of Armenia and Azerbaijan has been going on since the year of 1988 with the region’s legislature passed to join Armenia, and resulted in fullscale war in the 1990s. Occupation of Azerbaijan territories happened during the time of gaining independence in both of the countries. Since the break-up of the Soviet Union Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is self-declared independent republic with primary ethnic Armenians. Nagorno-Karabakh was established as an autonomous region inside Soviet Azerbaijan way back in 1923. In 1992 with the declaration of independence and with the help of Armenia, NagornoKarabakh occupied over 20% of Azerbaijan internationally recognized territories, the war began. The overall war resulted in over 20.000 Azerbaijanis deaths, around 5.000 missing persons, more than 100.000 wounded and half of formal number disabled.Ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population on the entire territory of Azerbaijan began and also virtually all ethnic Azeri’s had fled or been forced out of the region.
More than one million were Internal Displaced persons (IDPs) or refugees. Based on international Crisis Group reporting around 30 people die every year because of the conflict. End of the fighting did not bring an end to the conflict. Mediation initiatives and different proposals to resolve pivotal problems and to achieve peace came from different countries, politicians and organizations over different timeframes. Four United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions were passed demanding withdrawal of Armenia from Azerbaijan. Beside the neighboring countries and the West one of the international organization is also Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) that has been meditating with OSCE Minsk Group ever since the conflict erupted, from the year 1992 on. The group was created in order to resolve the conflict, but so far no improvement has been seen. In OSCE Minsk Group Russia, USA and France proposed several options of proposals, but none has been accepted by all sides.
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One step towards solution could be uphold of the International community to the nonbinding UN and OSCE arms embargoes on Armenia and Azerbaijan. Some progress was made in May of 1994 when Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia signed a ceasefire, which is still effective regardless the everyday violations. All initiatives are fruitless since each side has its own claims and views on how the conflict should be resolved.
THE CONfLICT HAD, HAS AND COULD fURTHER HAvE CONSEqUENCES ON THE bROADER REgIONAL SITUATION WITH DIvERSE ACTORS INvOLvED Azerbaijan considers Nagorno-Karabakh as illegally occupied territory by Armenia and does not recognize it as a state since the enclave has not even been by the end of 21. Century internationally recognized. Azerbaijan is striving to perused world opinion that Nagorno-Karabakh is just aggression of Armenia not a struggle for self-determination. Meanwhile, Armenia believes that conflict must be resolved with recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh people’s right to self-de termination. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan recognizes the republic’s territorial sovereignty.
The formal and Russia does not regard Nagorno-Karabakh as a full negotiating partner. All three sides have different expectations. First Nagorno-Karabakh with a population of about 14.000 persons, wants recognition of its independence before the negotiations. Second Azerbaijan wants Armenia to end its occupation of the territories and withdraw of forces before discussing the republic final status. And third Armenia wants resolution first on the status before backing out of disputed territories. The conflict had, has and could further have consequences on the broader regional situation with diverse actors involved. Broad regional relations between countries must be taken into an account. The most important actor that has influence in this region is Russia, which supports Armenia, while Azerbaijan forged alliances with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), with Partnership for Peace program (PFP) in 1994 and the West. It is also true that both Armenia and Azerbaijan are politically and economically recovering from war and another escalation would bring no benefits to the either of opposing sides. Despite being members of the Minsk Group, Russia and the US are among the main suppliers of military equipment to both countries. In the region we can see that world leading states such as Russia and US have also other strategic issues and goals that should be considered while looking for a solution. Armenia on one hand is very depended of Russia also because of closed border with Turkey. The Turkey-Armenia border was closed in 1993 when Armenian forces occupied districts of Azerbaijan surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan based on the International Crisis Group even threaten Turkey's preferential price for its Shah Deniz natural gas supplies and chances of greater volume to feed the planned Nabucco transit pipeline to Europe. Increased trade would result in Yerevan less depend on Moscow. Even though Turkey had officially proclaimed its neutrality in the conflict, it sides with Azerbaijan. We need to have in mind that the South Caucasus region is crossed by major oil and gas pipelines which represents great importance for Europe’s and also Central Asia energy security. The BP-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline runs through territory less than 100 kilometers from the cease-fire line. Therefore territory is an important energy corridor and whole region is growing in importance in oil and gas sector.
United States Department of Energy data shows that the proven reserves in the Caspian Basin for oil reserves of the entire region are equal to those of Iran or Iraq and proven gas reserves are about half as much as Qatar’s, but much has been unexplored. Neighboring countries, including Iran try to influence on or resolve the conflict. Also neighboring country Georgia is a strategic partner of Azerbaijan and upholds the preservation of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. Standpoint and pro-Azerbaijan stance has roots in problems that it has on its own territory and disputes involving Abkhazia and South Ossetia and also plans of making a transit route for Caspian oil through its territory.
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THE DANgER Of ESCALATION PERSISTS TO THIS DAY AND POTENTIAL Of INCREASE IN CASUALTIES ON THE fRONTLINES IS gROWINg
Both are clinging to NATO, but Georgia as one of many failed states in the world has no influence on resolving the conflict. The Western states and the US access to Caspian oil and gas resources serves as minimization the West’s dependence on Middle East oil. There are activities that are leading to minimize Iran’s and Russia influence in the region. Stability in the South Caucasus cannot be achieved without finding a lasting solution for Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Nagorno-Karabakh maybe has no future as a part of Azerbaijan and whatever the solution is, it must emanate from the will of the Karabakh people. Maybe meeting of the Azerbaijan and Armenia in Saint Petersburg in June this year will shine a new light into long lasting problems and conflict. Even though a conflict escalation is in many ways seen unlikely and the chances of war are not high, the tensions and distrusts between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue. The danger of escalation persists to this day and potential of increase in casualties on the frontlines is growing. Both states can with its armed forces, Azerbaijan with around 95.000 and Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh 70.000 personnel, hit large population centres, communications and critical infrastructure. Regional alliances could pull in Russia, Turkey and Iran, which all play an important role in keeping the region stable. Furthermore, important oil and gas pipelines near the front lines could be threatened. Instead of peace based on Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)we see growing military expenditures, state-fuelled propaganda, and political ineffectiveness to achieve permanent solution, ceasefire violations and lack of diplomatic progress.
US-RUSSIA REDUX: THE PROBLEM WITH INTELLECTUAL INSINCERITY There are nuMerous intellectual sources, from think tanks to governmental agencies, both in the United States and Russia, which are deeply concerned about the state of Russian-American relations. Places like the Moscow Carnegie Centre or the Brookings Institution in Washington DC are regular go-to places for the media when seeking expert opinion and analysis. However, these centers of independent knowledge production have had a decided slant in allocating blame for the poor bilateral relations to the Russian side, with the explanations ranging from the fairly simple to the rather mystically esoteric. Matthew Crosston is Professor of Political Science, Director of the International Security and Intelligence Studies Program, and the Miller Chair at Bellevue University
“If America did not exist, Russia would have to invent it. In a sense it already has: first as a dream, then as a nightmare. No other country looms so large in the Russian psyche. To Kremlin ideologists, the very concept of Russia’s sovereignty depends on being free of America’s influence. Anti-Americanism has long been a staple of Vladimir Putin, but it has undergone an important shift. Gone are the days when the Kremlin craved recognition and lashed out at the West for not recognizing Russia as one of its own. Now it neither pretends nor aspires to be like the West. Instead, it wants to exorcise all traces of American influence.”
It is not difficult to find this Freudian-type of political psycho-babble today when it comes to ‘analyzing’ Russian positions. The United States tries to portray itself as the victim of a global oedipal complex when it comes to Russia: first Putin desperately craves daddy’s attention; then defiantly and recklessly rejects him; only to then petulantly try to run away from home. Most countries around the world would actually find it dangerously myopic and unhealthy to base its foreign policy on earning the ‘approval’ of another country. The far more standard approach to foreign policy formulation is to determine a country’s own national interests and craft an independent position best able to achieve its own optimal goals. And that, incredulously, is what is being described above in America as a ‘shift:’ from craving attention to striving to exorcise American demons. In reality there is no shift at all: Russia has always been about Russia, as it expects America to be about America, France to be about France, Nigeria to be about Nigeria, so forth and so on.
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What Russia finds so irksome is that when it does what everyone else does on the issue of global positioning, it is judged as psychologically unstable or mentally deficient. What the American media outlets and think tank personalities fail to recognize is how much of this judgment is not from observable behavior or direct quotes from relevant actors, but is instead from so-called experts pushing a decidedly one-sided interpretation of the agenda.
RUSSIA IS NOT SUPPOSED TO ASPIRE TO BE A COPY Of OR MIMIC fOR THE WEST. NOR SHOULD IT BE ALLOWINg ANY PARTICULAR AMERICAN INfLUENCE OvER ITS POLICY DECISIONS Russia is not supposed to aspire to be a copy of or mimic for the West. Nor should it be allowing any particular American influence over its policy decisions. This is not said as an anti-American statement but rather as simple foreign policy logic: America would never strive to copy another country and it most certainly does not endorse another country trying to force-influence its foreign policy. So why should Russia? It is this very straightforward question that seems to never be asked by what are otherwise august media institutions and impressive political think tanks in the West.
Sometimes this tendency can reach near farcical levels. When Alexei Pushkov, chairman of the Russian parliament’s foreign-relations committee, spoke about ridding Russia of dependence on America and even ridiculously commenting about fining cinemas that show too many foreign films, it was up to Western experts on Russia to recognize the absurd for what it is: just absurdity. Failure to do so is especially egregious given so much Western political analysis over the past fifteen years has lamented the strengthening and deepening of Putin’s own presidential power system. Decrying how little power sits within the legislative or judiciary branches of Russian government means it is nonsensical to then highlight parliamentarians as having real impact and relevance on Russian-American relations. But this happens quite a bit in American media outlets and think tanks without anyone ever taking the time to point out the blatant contradiction. This bias is only more pronounced when you leave academically- oriented think tanks/ news monitors and observe opinions within the corridors of American power. Traditionally, this decidedly anti-Russian fervor came from the Republican Party. However, this analysis would argue that except for a very brief and ultimately dashed Obama ‘reset,’ attitudes about Russian-American interaction within Washington DC has always been dominated in both parties by a largely Republican mindset. That mindset sets a fairly stark characterization: Russia is an aggressive and untrustworthy dictatorship that is an innate contradiction to American values. As such it will inevitably always be a threat to U.S. interests and global security.
By all indicators, Russia is a threat not just to itself and its immediate neighbors but to the entire world, masking its own domestic failings and instabilities with an aggressive foreign policy that will never acquiesce to a more peaceful and cooperative global community. Indeed, when American politicians specialize in ambiguous statements and plausible deniability, it is rather remarkable how freely the American Congress seems to deride Russia: John Boehner: “It is increasingly evident that Russia is intent on expanding its boundaries and power through hostile acts.” Ted Poe: “The Russian bear is coming out of its cave because it got its feelings hurt because of the fall of the Soviet Union, and not it is trying to regain its territories.”
Chris Smith: accused a “repressive Russian regime” of “coddling dictators” around the globe from Central Asia to Syria to Cuba and Venezuela. Trent Franks: After the conclusion of an arms deal between Russia and Venezuela, President Putin was called a “thugocrat” engaged in “dangerous alliances. Keep in mind all of the above statements were uttered before the 2014 crisis in Ukraine even broke out. So before the U.S. Congress saw what it considers undeniable and irrefutable proof of Russian aggression, it already viewed Russia as a corrupt kleptocracy willfully abusing human rights, powered by an irrational and paranoid hatred of the United States. WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT
ATTITUDES ABOUT RUSSIAN-AMERICAN INTERACTION WITHIN WASHINgTON DC HAS ALWAYS BEEN DOMINATED IN BOTH PARTIES BY A LARgELY REPUBLICAN MINDSET
There also tends to be a failure to place Russian analysis through the looking glass of reciprocity. What this means is that current American thinking emphasizes how untrustworthy Moscow decision-makers are, or how there is no real point in talking with the Kremlin, while completely ignoring or dismissing the very real Russian criticism that lobs the same complaint back at Washington. President Putin openly and publicly discusses his lack of trust in American power and in the specific policy decisions emanating from the White House. It is because of this skepticism, even cynicism, that he claims forces his own lack of desire to engage the United States.
There are simply too few voices at present trying to analyze this declared mindset as a legitimate position. As far as can be determined, the only reason this is not analyzed more seriously is because the competing alternative – that Putin is untrustworthy and Moscow is the cause of all communication breakdowns – is simply too powerfully accepted as a de facto axiom. In short, if the United States does not trust Russia, it is because of how Russia behaves on the global stage and because of its own history on said stage. If Russia does not trust the United States, that is simply Russian posturing and a case of political transference, wanting to blame its own self-made problems on someone else so that it can avoid any accountability or being held responsible for poor performance. The issue at hand is how this is simply accepted rather than investigated. And how few so-called Russian experts are at present willing to step forward and shine a light on this intellectual insincerity. There are voices that decry a picture being painted that combines inaccuracy with heightened rhetoric while purposely ignoring mitigating contexts and less negative observations. However, those voices are extremely rare and at the moment easily drowned out by the drumbeat of Russian derision. Until those voices get louder or strive to become more prominent public figures in Washington, it seems there is little hope for an improvement in relations between the United States and Russia based on actual events in the real world.
AzERbAIJAN: WHAT AWAITS bEYOND STICkS AND CARROTS ThE counTry`s PowEr in international relations rests upon various things and the principal distinction into hard and soft power displays particular means to influence the behavior of others.
MD Editor Petra Posega is a Master`s degree student at the University for Criminal justice and Security in Ljubljana with a Bachelor`s degree in Political ScienceDefense studies.
Essentially, power applies to country`s ability to obtain the desired goals in international community, the main difference is therefore in the means to acquire them. In hard power, the name of the game is coercion; tactics and applied mechanisms include military and economic power, manifesting in threats to oblige to certain policy or succumb to undesired actions. Soft power applies to attracting others to co-opt specific goals and it rests on three different resources: country`s culture, its political values and its foreign policies. Soft power therefore depends on ability to create certain attraction to presented actions and stated goals. Many argue that whereas coercion has credible means to force compliant behavior, the means of soft power can be more long- lasting and cost efficient. As with propaganda, the best power is when you feel no power at all. We can also connect both concepts to two prevailing blocks of theories on international relations: realism and liberal, constructivist (whereas there are clear distinctions to both when it comes to theoretical basics, we can apply soft power tactics to both of them).
Realism emphasizes on the inevitable struggle of one country and its national security vrs the other, citing states as rational actors pursuing and acting in their self interest. Main means to achieving the ends are material resources such as rough military might, energy resources and population quota. Clearly, this is a nod to hard power and its role in the global political system. Liberal theories enunciate cooperation between different countries as the main characteristic of the international system and the benefits of such behavior for all the involved players, for increased interdependence supposedly eliminates the danger of resorting to aggressive means; on the other hand, constructivists indicate that people give means to different institutions and instruments by their compliance, aspiration to, defiance or ignorance to certain rules or institutions. We can see how soft power is synchronized with the latter two theories, emphasizing cooperation, attraction and struggle for similar interpretation of goals.
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International community is a very dynamic entity, not comprising anymore just from nation states but also other players (multinational organizations, corporations, NGOs…) and at the same time exercising very strict codes of conduct when it comes to applying hard military power; (although arguably some conveniently like to forget that part in the US vrs them strategies) therefore, there is a vast scale of different means and different attitudes one player can adopt when it comes to reciprocal relations. Smaller actors often resort to soft power mechanisms, whereas great powers also often apply hard power in their grand strategies, which complies to the fact that one can only make use of what one has.
WE COULD SAY THAT AzERbAIJAN OffERS MOSTLY CARROTS, ALMOST NEvER STICkS When it comes to Azerbaijan, the country has many different aspects of applicable power tactics. Since hard power relies on displays of military might and economic strength, we can argue that Azerbaijan displayed both in the armed conflict over the Nagorno- Karabakh region with neighbouring Armenia (at this point solely pointing out to the use of power, not the wider implications and causes of the conflict).
The fighting officially ended in 1994 and the OSCE Minsk Group is now responsible for the peaceful resolution of the conflict. Although officially a frozen issue, in 2014 alone as many as 60 people were killed in border clashes, making it the worst annual record in two decades and evidently the matter far from over. Azerbaijan also displayed hard power when it imposed full economic embargo on Armenia together with Turkey and closed the borders to the country. In 2012, Azerbaijani leadership expressed their desire to upgrade the army according to NATO standards, which would present a significant increase of country`s hard power, especially in the light of decades long unsuccessful peace talks with Armenia over the Nagorno- Karabakh region. Therefore, arguably, Azerbaijani military hard power relates to the conflict over Nagorno- Karabakh region and is standing at a little over 65 000 men strong navy, land and air forces. Otherwise, it is composed of economic strength, gained from energy- related profits, which are able to open a wide range of possibilities when it comes to various economic incentives, also part of the hard power repertoire. Arguably, we could also interpret Azerbaijani pipeline diplomacy as a sort of hard power tactic, because it significantly decreases the economic gains for targeted players, mainly Armenia (with BTC and BTE oil and gas pipelines also Russia), another such project that diminishes the prospects of Armenia is the Trans- Anatolian pipeline. Undeniably helpful in this application of power is Azerbaijani strategic positioning in the Caspian region, sandwiched in the midst of Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Azerbaijani hard power was therefore applicable to neighboring Armenia in the past however, when thinking globally, the possibility spectrum of hard power diminishes to economic incentives, such as development aid, reduced tax policies, FDI etc. We could say that Azerbaijan oers mostly carrots, almost never sticks. When dealing with the broader international community, Azerbaijan is prone to think soft, presenting ways to co-opt their goals and attracting other countries with set of examples and agendas. With appeals such as a strong secular government, religious tolerance, orientation towards open, democratic society and independent energy, economic and security policies, Azerbaijan makes a strong case for a soft power spill- over to other countries, striving to achieve the same level of development.
Surely so, Azerbaijan has also become a prominent model for Muslim- majority countries seeking to manage religious, cultural and ethnic dierences in a productive and harmonious manner. Thanks to its secular policies and an embracing approach towards religious and ethnic diversity, the country has gathered substantial soft power as a role model for other (Muslim) countries to follow suit. Besides setting the example, Azerbaijan is also very active in promoting its culture, education and people. With many student and university sta exchange programs, promotion of major cultural events (such as the first Islamic opera and first Islamic ballet in the US), hosting international conferences and round tables, Azerbaijan is following in the footsteps of other world countries.
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bAkU IS HOPINg TO bUILD AN ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC CAPITAL IN THE EYES Of THE gLObAL COMMUNITY AND PREPARE fOR ITS fUTURE bEYOND JUST gAS AND OIL SELLS
When thinking about Azerbaijan, embracing the many cultural and ethnic differences as much on paper as in real life, arguably, Baku is the best place to host the first European Olympics Games. Additionally, the hosting of games is aligned with Baku`s desire to successfully put Azerbaijan on the map of Europe and the world and surely, culture and sporting events are the best and most efficient way to do so. Baku is hoping to build an economic, political and diplomatic capital in the eyes of the global community and prepare for its future beyond just gas and oil sells. Accordingly, all will not be over after the European games; Azerbaijan is also set to host the first Baku One of the latest significant public diplo- Formula one race and four matches in the macy efforts of the country was also partici- 2020 UEFA European Football Champipation in the Eurovision song context, most onship. widely- watched non sporting event in the world, that awarded Azerbaijan victory in We can conclude that Azerbaijan is success2012 and consequently brought the compe- fully implementing various soft power tactics tition to Baku in 2013. After successfully host- to win the hearts and minds of world couning the contest, Azerbaijan was prepared for tries. Besides just setting examples, it is also another big undertaking: inaugural Euro- very active with its cultural and public diplopean Olympic Games, which will be held in macy, hosting away important events from Baku this June. Azerbaijan has taken this task many different specters of contemporary life. very seriously and over the past two years, By continuously doing so, we can expect many state- of-the-art sporting venues were Azerbaijan to fix its position as a country to build in the country, to fit the requirements reckon with, expanding its activity from reof top European athletes coming to the gional to global aspirations. Games.
THE NEXT gREAT EMERgINg MARkET "a journey of a Thousand Miles begins with a single step," Chinese Philosopher Lao-tzu once said. When it comes to bringing Iran -- the heir of the great Persian civilization -- out of the cold, the recently announced Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) framework agreement, after days of grueling 11th-hour haggling in Lausanne, Switzerland, between Tehran and the major powers, may very well count as that proverbial "single step."
A final, comprehensive agreement is yet to be drafted and signed before the June 30 deadline, but by all indications we may have finally achieved a breakthrough in the decade-and-a-half-long Iranian nuclear negotiations, paving the way for an end to the Iranian nuclear hysteria and a decisive rollback of punitive Western sanctions, which have collectively punished tens of millions of ordinary Iranian citizens. richard javad heydarian Academic, policy advisor, and author of "How Capitalism Failed the Arab World: The Economic Roots and Precarious Future of the Middle East Uprisings"
Ending punitive Western sanctions against Iran, in exchange for substantial concessions on its nuclear program, will most likely have a dramatic impact on the global economy -- unlocking the world's hottest emerging-markets-inwaiting. Iran combines the consumer market and human capital potential of Turkey, with the hydrocarbon riches of Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the mineral resources of Australia. As the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) struggle with various manifestations of the notorious 'middle income trap,'
Iran represents the next great destination for foreign investors. In the near future, we may end up talking about a new, cooler acronym: The "iBRICS", with Iran, of course, as the "i." withstanding stagflation While the war-weary American people can rejoice in preventing another conflict in the Middle East, the Iranian people have wasted no chance at celebrating the promise of economic recovery and re integration into the global community. Horns, chants and cheers have filled the air across Tehran, echoing the country's celebrations during the 2014 World Cup. The historic Nixon-Mao opening in the early-1970s cemented the foundations of a decadeslong economically symbiotic relationship between Washington and Beijing, allowing one of the world's most sophisticated civilizations to rejoin the community of nations -- and transform the global economy along the way. The Obama-Rouhani negotiations could produce a similar outcome, allowing the Persian civilization to retake its pride of place on the global stage, unleashing the talents and potentials of 75 million Iranians, who have been besieged and isolated for years under unimaginable external pressure.
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The unilateral Western sanctions against Iran were particularly devastating, since they combined targeted sanctions against Iran's financial and oil sector with an intense diplomatic effort to convince/pressure Iran's major Asian trade partners -- namely, South Korea, Japan, China, Turkey and India -- to dramatically reduce their oil imports from Iran. Washington rallied the support of major Arab oil-producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to supplant any potential shortfall in oil supply when Iran's oil would be squeezed out of international markets.
THE COMBINATION Of MARkET SIzE, NATURAL RESOURCES, AND HUMAN CAPITAL HAS MADE IRAN A HUgELY ATTRACTIvE MARkET PROSPECT
Under growing American pressure, Iran's most important regional trade partner, the UAE, progressively severed financial ties with Tehran, undermining Iran's ability to import essential primary products, especially food. To up the ante, EU also imposed sanctions on Iran's most important port operator, Tidewater Middle East Co., which has been responsible for handling much of Iran's external trade. These moves were clearly designed to strangle the Iranian economy, going well beyond the scope of the nuclear issue -- causing tremendous difficulty for ordinary Iranians.
As a result of the concerted punitive measures, Iran fell into "stagflation," with a spike in inflation coinciding with a dip in GDP growth. Its oil exports, the chief source of foreign currency earnings, halved, while sanctions on Iran's financial sector, including the Banke-e-Markazi (Central Bank), meant that Tehran struggled to collect its payments in international currency. Up to $100 billion of Iranian overseas assets were virtually frozen. Inflation reached as high as 40 percent, and Iran's currency (rial) lost 60 percent of its value. Iran suffered two years of economic contraction, in 2012 and 2013. Iran's econMeanwhile, by pressuring Iran's Asian oil omy would have been 15-20 percent larger partners, the West limited Iran's pool of cus- today if it were not for the sanctions. tomers, therefore giving immense leverage to Tehran's narrowing circle of buyers to de- The next hot destination mand heavy discounts and unfavorable The expected removal of Western sanctions, terms. South Korea and Japan agreed to cut particularly the targeted measures against their Iranian oil imports, while India and Iran's oil and financial sector, could pave the China began exploiting the situation by forc- way for a huge and much-needed inflow of ing Iran to offer discounts and settle for foreign investors and recovery of Iran's oil sector and heavily-battered currency. barter trade.
Within the region, Iran possesses the most sophisticated and expansive industrial base. It is among the world's top 15 steel producers, top 5 cement producers, and has one of world's biggest auto-manufacturing industries (ranked 13th in the world), churning out as many as 1.6 million cars annually in recent years, representing the second biggest source of employment-generation after the oil sector and accounting for 10 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). With the removal of sanctions, Iran can tremendously benefit from cheaper and easier access to intermediate goods and technology for its manufacturing sector. Despite suering from decades of Western sanctions, Iran has astonishingly managed to stand as among the world's leading countries in cutting-edge sciences such as nanotechnology and stem cell research. Its universities, particularly University of Tehran (Iran's Harvard) and Sharif University of Technology (Iran's MIT), have produced one of the best engineering, science and mathematics graduates, including Maryam Mirzakhani, who became the first woman to win the Fields Medal, the "Nobel Prize" of mathematics. In 2012, Iran cemented its position as the leading Middle Eastern scientific power, ranking as the world's 17th biggest producer of scientific papers, outshining Turkey and Israel. In terms of human development, Iran stands among the top countries in Asia, featuring in the "high" human development index category.
The combination of market size, natural resources, and human capital has made Iran a hugely attractive market prospect. And there hasn't been a shortfall of interest from foreign investors, particularly from oil giants, which are considering huge investment in a post-sanctions Iran. In recent years, Iran has hosted one of the biggest European business delegations in its modern history. Ending the sanctions, and reviving Iran's economy, has been the key promise of the Rouhani administration, which aims to make Iran among the world's top 10 biggest economies in the near future. With Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on Iran's domestic and foreign aairs, repeatedly expressing his support for Iran's negotiators, much of the Iranian establishment has rallied behind the Rouhani administration's eort to resolve the nuclear crisis.
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THE kEY PROMISE Of THE ROUHANI ADMINISTRATION, TO MAkE IRAN AMONg THE WORLD'S TOP 10 BIggEST ECONOMIES IN THE NEAR fUTURE
A final nuclear agreement will also provide Iran much-needed strategic space to diversify its external relations, allowing it to get out of the shadow of Eastern powers such as China and Russia, which have exploited Iran's isolation in recent years. In light of sanctions against Tehran, China eectively gained privileged access to Iran's vast energy and infrastructure sector. Meanwhile, Russia is yet to honor its earlier agreement to deliver advanced missile-defense-systems to Iran, which Tehran has desperately sought for years.
To protect its national economic welfare, Iran has reportedly agreed to significant concessions on its nuclear program: reduction of its installed centrifuges by two-thirds; halting uranium enrichment over 3.67 percent (only useful for power generation) for at least 15 years; reduction of its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to 300 kg; and not building any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years. It has also agreed to subject itself to the history's most robust inspection regime, under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which will even have access to uranium mines and exercise continuous surveillance at Iran's uranium mills for 25 years. Facilities in Arak, Natanz, and Fordow will also be subject to significant inspection and reconfiguration. As Iran open up to the world, the Obama administrations and its partners face an unprecedented opportunity to not only advance the cause of non-proliferation and avert an unnecessary and destructive conflict, but also to tap one of the world's most promising economies. The stakes couldn't be any higher.
the legal status of the caspian seacuRRent challenges and pRospects foR futuRe development BarBara Janusz- Pawletta (sPringer- 2015- 176 Pages)
“is it PossiBle for the CasPian sea, which has become a bone of contention between the five bordering countries Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, to turn into an area of- literally speaking- fruitful cooperation in the legal sense? This question remains open for the time being, but we may have reason to hope, considering the recent state of the negotiations, that the long awaited consensus can still be found. More than 10 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the newly independent republics of the Caspian Sea, a comprehensive solution to the problem of the international legal status of the Caspian Sea has still not been found. The unclear legal situation of the Caspian Sea and the consequent uncertainty of the coastal states about the issue of territorial demarcation, their uncertainty about the extent of their sovereign rights to the exploitation of natural resources and the uncertainty of the neighboring states with regard to shipping in the Caspian prevent continuous economic development of the region, destabilize political situation and result in a lack of security in the Caspian region.
The ineffective attempts to define the legal framework of the Caspian sea should be explained by pointing to the existing deep differences between geopolitical and economic interests of the five littoral states. Along with the change of the geopolitical situation in the region after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the region`s opening to international collaboration in the area of oil and gas resources, the Caspian sea region has come to the center of attention even for China, the US and the EU, which has intensified the competition of powers existing in the region.”
Petra Posega
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euRasian coRRidoRs of inteRconnection: fRom the south china to the caspian sea Walcott, s. m. and Johnson, c. (eds.) (2013) 1st edn. United KinGdom: roUtledGe
eUrasian corridors of Interconnection: From the South China to the Caspian Sea provides a comprehensive outlook on the Eurasian region set between the Caucasus countries and China.
This book focuses mainly on Chinese and Russian interests and activities in the region and in relation to its neighbours, as well as touching upon topics such as natural resources (where the Caspian Sea Countries figure prominently) and religion (as is the case with Muslims in otherwise secular societies). The book works in providing an overview of the region through a myriad of angles, most notably discussing the concept of borders and cross-border congruence, ultimately providing their own original concept of “Eurasia as an area linked by vital interests and overlapping histories” (Walcott and Johnson, 2013, p. 11). The book spends most of its pages dealing with Chinese interests and relationships with its neighbours, particularly Vietnam, the Himalayan Hinterlands and one of its Autonomous Regions.
It then moves on to Russia, mapping its attempt at repositioning itself in this recent post-soviet arrangement of the region. The Caspian Sea countries and their abundance of natural resources, namely oil and gas, gains a chapter of its own, followed by the discussion of Islam in the region as a way to elicit debate regarding the “transboundary demographic challenge from ethnic minorities feeling disempowered and discriminated against” (Idem, p.9). In summary, it is a far-reaching manuscript ideal to those that not only want to expand their knowledge into already established notions about the region, but also those looking for a new light on old topics.
Gabriela Pascholati do amaral
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caspian eneRgy politics: azeRbaijan, KazaKhstan and tuRKmenistan overland, i., Kjaernet, h. and Kendall-taylor, a. (eds) (2009) new yorK: routledGe
offerinG an exPansion on the discussion about energy politics and Russian and Chinese interests in the Caspian-Eurasian region started out in Eurasian Corridors of Interconnection, this book, Caspian Energy Politics: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, provides an in-depth analysis of three of the most resource-intensive countries in the region.
The book offers enlightening contributions by noted professors and researchers, and covers both the domestic and international sphere of these three countries. It starts off with a polemic discussion regarding the “curse” of being a resource intensive country with an authoritarian government, as the authors perceive Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. It then enters into the individual and collective relations these countries have with China, Russia or both, and how this dynamic plays out in the region and in relation to their domestic situation. Caspian Energy Politics provides a thoughtprovoking picture of these three countries and how they are dealing with their new found wealth from oil and gas exports, how this affects their national governments, and the relationships with two of the region’s
biggest players, Russia and China. It offers a broad panorama while also threading on a controversial path of debate that is sure to inspire many discussions. In the author’s words, “[…] it is too early to count all the blessings and curses they [revenues] entail for the development of these countries. The ultimate impact of oil and gas […] will be determined largely by the ability of the governments to manage de dilemmas associated with the production and export of petroleum resources and the resulting revenues” (Overland, Kjaernet, and KendallTaylor, 2009. pp. 1), dilemmas which are thoroughly debated throughout the book. A recommended read for anyone wants to understand the domestic and regional dynamics playing out between substantial players in the energy sector.
Gabriela Pascholati do amaral
www.modeRndiplomacy.eu the caspian pRoject
ASTANA: A CITY ANALYSIS AND FUTURE DEvELOPMENT FuturiStic, expanSive, cold, frigid, and even the “the space station in the steppes” are some words that are used to describe Kazakhstan’s capital of Astana.
Samantha Brletich is a current graduate student studying peace operations policy at George Mason University, Arlington, VA. Ms. Brletich focuses on Russia and Central Asia focusing on extremism and terrorism, regional relations, strategic relations, Kyrgyz and Western relations, and governance. Ms. Brletich is an employee of the US Department of Defense.
The city is beautiful, with futuristic and colorful buildings reflecting Kazakh folklore, history, and culture and a look into Kazakhstan will be. Attracting large domestic and international investments, Kazakhstan’s nearly twodecade old capital, Astana, strives to be a worldly and international city welcoming investors, but the city lacks many features characteristic of other bustling and global cities. The mayor’s 2015 development plan, proposing fast food restaurants and strip malls already flooding a city with countless shopping malls and cafes, will fail to attract “global citizens” and those who want to experience authentic Kazakh culture. Astana is a relatively new city. Established in 1997 and renamed in 1998 (was called Akmola), Astana has a population of 851,000 and is currently the second largest city in Kazakhstan.The city is 722 km2 (279 sq. mi.) as compared to Washington D.C. with a population of 658,893 and the size of 177 km2 (68.3 sq. mi.). Washington D.C.’s population is roughly two-thirds of Astana’s, but the size is of Astana is more than four times the size of D.C. Astana has
potential to grow not only in population, but in the commercial and residential sectors as well. The city, upon construction, took upon an ambitious urban development and capital relocation program to transform the Siberian steppe area. Astana was built over an already existing city and was a “planned city.” Astana is a “brand city” to project Kazakhstan’s influence well beyond its borders as Nazarbayev is poised to make Kazakhstan the Eurasian bridge connecting Europe and Asia while seeking recognition for Kazakhstan politically, economically and culturally. As Nazarbayev promotes Astana, he is also distinguishing Kazakhstan from other Central Asia states, but also from the Former Soviet Union. The relocation of the capital from Almaty to Astana highlights the need for a more central location to quell tensions notably the ethnic tension between ethnic Kazakhs and ethnic Russians and celebrating Astana’s independence leaving the Soviet identity marred by memories of violence and poor governance behind.
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Astana’s city variations and the desire to attract foreign investors echo Nazarbayev’s political and diplomatic strategy of multi-vector foreign policy. The interesting observation was made regarding Sir Norman Foster’s design of the Palace of Peace and Reconciliation: “the president’s determination to have the rest of the world perceive Kazakhstan as neutral host to international affairs is writ upon the Astana landscape—while the conference meets once every three years, the locals are confronted daily with a giant glass pyramid.”
MORE DEvELOPMENT WILL HAvE TO bE DONE SURROUNDINg ASTANA IF ASTANA WANTS TO bE A gLObAL CITY The mayor’s plans to adhere to the 2015 Astana Development plan are to include a system of a fast food chains and to replace shopping malls. Shops, restaurants, and shopping centers are equally distributed throughout Astana. Astana, if more strip malls were to be constructed, would be a “strip mall city.” The city’s current land-use is focused on commercial and residential areas. There is abundant green space (parks and tree-filled areas), but this green space primarily lies outside the city (and behind Khan Shatyr and around Turan Avenue) and it is mixed in around Astana’s buildings including Bayterek tower/monument and around the Presidential Palace.
Residential land use focuses primarily on Western-style apartments built for expatriates and young professionals. Traditional houses are expected to be built, but are hard to find currently. Due the city’s design, houses would have to be on the periphery and not able to be incorporated among apartments. To the north (referred to the as Old Center) of the Ishim River, the buildings are built during the Soviet times reflected in the outside aesthetics and most of the words are in Russia. To the South of the Ishim River, is new which has newer apartments. Construction on apartment buildings has already begun in South Astana on the outskirts of the main town. The apartments will mostly attract expats and young professionals as “2,507 apartments totaling 1,588,000 square [meters] will be put into operation during the first quarter of the current year.” Astana lacks many Kazakh culture staples such as bazaars. They are more like a supermarket in a concrete building. Bazaars are part of Kazakh heritage and Central Asian history as the region was part of the historical trading route, the Great Silk Road. Kazakhstan’s appeal to be a global city should not include dismissing its culture and catering to people who may or may not visit. The loss of Kazakh cultural identity should be considered when planning. Many of the shopping malls contain the same stores. The Keruen shopping center including high end retailers such as Max Mara and Escada. Nazarbayev University, named after President Nursultan Nazarbayev, is on the outskirts of the city blocking off a key demographic away from South Astana and its economy.
The school was established in 2009. Cities in America, Europe, and Southeast Asia have student populations which contribute significantly to the local economies. Nazarbayev University, upon establishment, had partnered with seven schools to develop its programs, including the University WisconsinMadison. This is ironic as UW has been considered an institution that embodies democratic ideals, something that Nazarbayev’s Administration has not always complied with. Newly constructed buildings are to contain parking lots. Parking in Astana is limited and atrocious. Luxury vehicles and imported vehicles crowed the narrow roads and vehicles are parked strategically on curbs blocking pedestrian foot traffic especially in busy areas near KazMunaiGas headquarters and the shopping area near Keruen shopping center.
Many busy intersections do not have crosswalk signals and drivers without indication (no traffic lights) have to stop to let pedestrians cross the street. The businesses and shopping centers would best benefit from parking garages similar to the parking garage in Sary Arka (or Sary Arka) shopping mall. Astana’s public transportation system relies on buses and private cars. There is only one cab service approved by Astana, Komandir, which operates a fleet of crossovers and sedans. There are also private car companies many which pick up drivers from the airport; airport drivers are known to inflate prices. Astana, to better connect the North and the South, would benefit from a subway system. The city’s roads will be improved by reconstructing/repairing 108 kilometers of roads including 30 streets in 11 districts and more video cameras will be installed. WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT
THE CITY IS bEAUTIFUL, WITH FUTURISTIC AND COLORFUL bUILDINgS REFLECTINg KAzAKH FOLKLORE, HISTORY, CULTURE AND A LOOK INTO KAzAKHSTAN WILL bE
Two other large cities in northern Kazakhstan are Karaganda (2009 population: 456,634 according to UN data) and Pavlodar (population: 307,880 according to UN data).Astana attempts to mimic the bright lights and screens of New York City, but instead of showing advertisements (some do), one screen on Qabanbay Batyr Avenue shows prominent Kazakh historical figures
Compared to other new planned cities such as Putrajaya in Malaysia and Brasilia in Brazil, Astana was relocated to serve a federal administrative function. Putrajaya is located 25km south of Kuala Lumpur and is the federal administrative center for Malaysia because of overcrowding in the capital. Putrajaya was planned as a garden and a smart city—uses technology to better wellbeing and to reduce consumption—as 38% of the city is green space; the city has land designated as open space. Astana is the new Kazakh culture capital and business center. Just like Kazakhstan the development was slowed down because of economic factors: the 1997/1998 Asia Economic Crisis and the Plans were signed in 2013 for a light rail sys- collapse of the Soviet Union respectively. tem to be rolled out in three stages according to the “New transport system of Astana Brasilia is considered a modernist city and city” and connected with the bus system. like Astana was built into the country’s reThis is needed as Astana has experienced mote interior and was a capital relocation efrapid traffic congestion and a growing pop- fort and was built quickly—Brasilia was ulation expected to be 1.2 million in 2020. completed in three years. Like Astana, Brasilia The light rail would have to sustain Astana’s is a “civitas” encompassing administrative and urban functions. Astana has many govharsh winter temperatures. Astana is not a metropolitan area. More de- ernment structures adjacent to shopping velopment will have to be done surrounding centers and strip malls. Brasilia and Astana Astana if Astana wants to be a global city, share a division of “urban fabric between the and the closest populated places are Koschi, civic space” and “was intended to make posand Vishnevka, and Izhevskoe located along sible the speedy completion of the most prominent civic structures to create an emthe Karaganda-Astana Highway. blematic vision of the nation's new capital.”
NO ‘LOvE ME NOT’ FOR THE bLOSSOMINg CULTURAL SCENE IN bAKU Being a pLace where modern and traditional coexist, interact and collide, Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, proves to be an alluring cultural intersection on the Caspian shore by portraying the ever developing art scene that give us an insight into the county’s aspirations for the 21st century. After seven decades under the Soviet regime, the streets in the city still present the marks of a past that permeates the collective imaginary, but does not refrain it from absorbing contemporary trends, thus creating a modern, meaningful scene.
Luísa Monteiro MD Editor
Locally and abroad, Azerbaijanis have been proving their value with new artists, while at the same time never forgetting those who came before. Whether in music, dance or contemporary arts, Azerbaijan spreads its production and embarks upon hosting foreign events, showing us its true (multi) colours. From the caspian to the world For the second time at the Venice Biennale (held until November 22nd), Azerbaijani pavilion now holds two exhibitions. The first, Vita Vitale, explores ecological issues in the country and how they are currently addressed, in an IDEA (International Dialogue for Environmental Action) initiative.
Simultaneously, the exposition Beyond the Line touches the much stigmatized URSS and its deeds before the lifting of the Iron Curtain, exploring pieces from seven at the time considered rebellious artists from the 60s, 70s and 80s that were not killed nor punished, but were instead consigned to oblivion. The aim of such work is to reveal the non-uniformity of the so called Soviet production to the world, shedding some light on the variety in the obscure underground scene. Many artists have also been known worldwide due to initiatives like Fly to Baku – an exposition of contemporary art held in several countries and created by the Heydar Aliyev Foundation. Even though the focus is on what is currently produced there, the foundation does not ignore the rich history related to the country, which was once a trade spot on the Silk Road, around the 11th century and conversion point of the Zoroastrian, Christian and Islamic cultures.
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This consciousness is not restricted to a curatorial text on a website, though. A cultural clash or a syncretism is also present in what those artists excel at creating today. One of the most prominent Azerbaijani artists, Faig Ahmed, gathers two opposite poles in his oeuvres- he works with rugs garnished with traditional patterns that encounter technology through pixilation and dissolution into blocks of colour. He and many other artists were incited by the opening of the YAMAT Contemporary Art Centre. In the Azerbaijan context, this nonprofitable organization is held responsible for encouraging and helping local artists, both the firmly established and those taking the first steps in the art world, exposing their work around the world.
However, if on the one hand Azerbaijan revisits and modernises its culture, on the other hand it does not fall short of the high standards of the European pop culture. Proof of that was the presence and chances of the second time entrant Elnur Huseynov at Eurovision 2015 (that will have its champion announced on May 23rd). The contestant has also participated in the fourth season of the Turkish edition of The Voice, winning the first place. and back It is to say that Baku is also opened to the world. Ever since its independence, Azerbaijan has been working towards several agreements with international organizations. It also reflects the posture of a country that wishes to reaďŹƒrm its political and territorial integrity.
Speaking of culture, the country hosts several foreign events, at the same time it recognizes natives whose fame was built overseas. The eighth Rostropovich Festival, coming to an end on May 24th, pays tribute to the homonym Azerbaijani musician, who was the conductor and artistic director of the National Symphony Orchestra in Washington for 17 seasons. Whereas the festival cannot neglect its erudite core, it also counts with presentations such as ‘Jazz and not only’ and ‘Russian rising stars’. The capital also welcomes this year the ‘Chocolate Museum of Nikola’ exhibition that stays in town until June 28th, after touring 40 cities around the world. The exhibition counts with personalized sculptures for this very occasion, such as the Maiden Tower 70kilogram chocolate miniature.
THE COUNTRY HOSTS SEvERAL FOREIgN EvENTS, AT THE SAME TIME IT RECOgNIzES NATIvES WHOSE FAME WAS bUILT OvERSEAS
Finally, in communion with the principles of honoring local culture without tethering it, Yarat and the French Institute in Azerbaijan have brought the spectacle of contemporary dance ‘Faun and Majestic Nymph’, played by the French dancer and choreographer Emmanuelle Huynh. The presentation was inspired by the one-act ballet ‘The Afternoon of a Faun’, created by Ukrainian choreographer Vaslav Nijinsky and first presented in 1902. In the end, be that for the inspirational historic environment or the ‘glocallity’ of movements nowadays, the cultural scene in Azerbaijan sizzles and joyfully plays with the amount of influences, delivering unique experiences to onlookers.
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