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HAMMER AND NAIL SPINNING WAR FROM PEACE IN IRAN’S NUKE DEAL SECURITY AND STABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS THE TWO TURBANS WHAT TO EXPECT FROM HARD POWER IN IRAN IRAN`S SOFT SOLUTIONS FOR HARD REALITIES AZERBAIJAN CELEBRATES THE REPUBLIC DAY
THE CASPIAN PROJECT WEEKLY EDITION www.moderndiplomacy.eu PROJECT TEAM DIMITRIS GIANNAKOPOuLOS DR. MATTHEW CROSSTON TEJA PALKO PETRA POSEGA LuíSA MONTEIRO GAbRIELA PASCHOLATI DO AMARAL
Hammer anD nail
Spinning War from peace in iran’S nuke Deal
HErE iS tHE ultiMatE axioM for all aspiring diplomats and foreign policy experts to know: there is no such thing as a simple quest for peace. Before anyone goes apoplectic with disgust and disdain at such cynicism, allow me to explain.
Dr. Matthew Crosston Senior Editor Matthew Crosston is Professor of Political Science, Director of the International Security and Intelligence Studies Program, and the Miller Chair at Bellevue University
I am not saying diplomats and foreign policy analysts do not have the best of intentions when trying to broker treaties, reinvigorate relations or institute long-term cooperation. In fact, it is exactly because the road for global affairs is paved most often with nothing but the best of intentions that the axiom above rings more bitterly true: nothing is unidirectional; everything is multifaceted; and every situation is never contained by minimal players. Consequently, every initial intention is ultimately transformed and/or mutated by others into something else. You need look no further than the recent Iranian negotiations trying to conclude a new agreement about nuclear energy. The point of negotiations was to place formal curbs and oversight mechanisms on the Iranian government as it tries to develop a nuclear energy program. Those curbs are of course meant to make sure that only nuclear energy for domestic use can come from any Iranian effort and no possibility could emerge to transform that effort into the production of nuclear weapons of any kind
Almost immediately the American domestic audience has been passionately split: one side welcomed the opportunity to consider a new approach for actual engagement, trying to bring Iran more into the global community responsibility fold. The opposing side is convinced Iran can never be trusted and that any program involving nuclear energy is destined to be a mere ruse to secretly develop nuclear weapons and ultimately destabilize the Middle East region and beyond. The international reaction has been no less contentious: for every state that thinks engagement with Iran is the only real way to broker responsible nuclear behavior from it, there are powerful opponents (Israel and Saudi Arabia just to name two very outspoken ones) who will likely never feel any brokered deal will provide enough real oversight or enough true curbs.
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In a diplomatic Utopia the next course of action would be to include all actors with a stake in the game to come together and hammer out not only consensus, but a sense of repeatable trust so that there is both the likelihood of good behavior and belief in legal redress for any violation of said behavior. But we do not live in a diplomatic Utopia, far from it. In fact, we live in a global affairs world where we speak about peace but expect war; where we declare good intentions but anticipate subterfuge; where we extend the hand of friendship while making sure the other hand is behind our backs with fingers crossed, just in case. Most say this is just cautious statesmanship, a necessary but healthy skepticism so as to not be overwhelmed if things go poorly.
america Will TrY To ‘SooTHe’ HurT feelingS bY giving iSrael a maSSive increaSe in DefenSe aiD, likelY folloWeD bY Similar poSSibiliTieS for SauDi arabia anD TurkeY Sometimes, however, that cautious statesmanship seems to doom those best intentions to the trash heap of chaos. In this case, that chaos might be triggered by the barely contained secret that the United States will not only renew its defense aid agreement with Israel when it expires in 2017, but that it will likely be INCREASED significantly beyond its current three billion USD.
The posturing and denial swirling around this poorly concealed secret is almost fodder for a tragic comedy: no one is willing to admit this is meant to be a ‘kiss and make-up’ defense deal to put Israel more at ease with the Americans engaging Iran. Netanyahu himself staunchly declares that even if a new deal is reached and for significantly more money that it will still not change Israel’s overall opposition to American engagement with Iran. In other words, the U.S. is going to give more money and weapons to an irritated Israel in order to keep it ‘calm’ about allowing Iran the chance to dabble with nuclear energy. Iran, of course, is not going to be blind to this development. From its side it will no doubt see its own international agreement as trying to constrain its ‘national defense sovereignty’ while then watching the Americans follow it with another with Israel that will subsequently arm it to the teeth, with an anticipation and expectation of Iranian misbehavior. Saudi Arabia will undoubtedly clamor onto Israel’s coattails to also gain new advantages and ‘cooperation.’ Keep in mind this current situation emerges from the ‘positive’ diplomacy of engaging Iran, with the intention to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons capability and making it more responsibly tied to the global community. One man’s cooperation can indeed be another man’s conflict. So if anyone is standing by trying to read the tea leaves of future peace as it concerns the Iranian agreement, be careful with your enthusiasm: the cascade effects of the eternal Security Dilemma, innate to global affairs writ large, means this ‘new day dawning’ in American-Iranian relations could ultimately also be the cause for
worsening interaction with Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, just to name a few. To recap: •america opens discussions as it is domestically conflicted as to whether this deal with Iran is positive or negative. Regardless, negotiations and an anticipated deal is expected. •israel will never see it as anything but negative, leading to an increased sense of insecurity. •Saudi arabia will agree, on this one thing at least, with Israel. •turkey will hedge its bets but also look upon the agreement with concern and ‘healthy skepticism.’ •america will try to ‘soothe’ hurt feelings by giving Israel a massive increase in defense aid, likely followed by similar possibilities for Saudi Arabia and Turkey. All three will use this ‘defense’ aid in a manner that will seem decidedly ‘offensive’ in military capacity terms. •iran will see those actions as a direct act of ‘potential aggression’ against itself, subsequently causing internal domestic pressure to not honor the new agreement that set all of this behavior off in the first place.
•israel, Saudi arabia, and perhaps turkey will see this Iranian ‘reaction’ as actually ‘action,’ the EXACT action in fact they always warned about and had been waiting for from the very first moment the Americans engaged Iran. •america will reopen discussions domestically, perhaps even elevating to a formal legal level, to consider if this deal was not just negative or positive, but if someone somewhere somehow had done something illegal to broker it. Expect those accusations to come from whichever party is not currently holding the White House. It is both fascinating and disconcerting to witness how fast the spinning wheel of cooperation and peace can turn into the rotating blades of mistrust and war. And always with the ‘best of intentions’ motivating everyone’s diplomats and foreign policy analysts. I hope I am wrong. I hope such possibilities do not turn into realities. I hope, for once, that ‘skeptical optimism’ can in fact turn into legitimate optimism. I hope. But I won’t hold my breath. WWW.moDernDiplomacY.eu THe caSpian proJecT
SECURITY AND STAbILITY IN THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS MorE tHan tWEnty yEarS ago, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted Recommendation 1247 (1994). The Recommendation read: “In view of their cultural links with Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia would have the possibility of applying for membership provided they clearly indicate their will to be considered as part of Europe”.
H.E. Dr. Walter Schwimmer Vice Chair of the MD’s Advisory Board Former Secretary General of the Council of Europe Chairman of the International Coordinating Committee of the World Public Forum – Dialogue of Civilizations
This proposition was an invitation to the South Caucasian States to remember, rethink and rebuild their European roots and identity. At that time, the Russian Federation was still two years away from membership. Russia joined the Council of Europe in 1996. Georgia followed in 1999 and, in January 2001, Armenia and Azerbaijan completed the membership as regards the Caucasus region. From the political point of view the Caucasus is part of Europe. That has been confirmed not only by the Pan-European Council of Europe but also by its smaller sister, the European Union, e.g. just recently when the summit of the Eastern Partnership took place in Riga with the participation of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. We often speak about European family of democratically-minded nations, about European, or Council of Europe standards. But what it is to be European? What is the meaning of Europe in the 21st century?
What does it mean with regard to stability and security in a region belonging to Europe? Seen from Baku, Yerevan or Tbilisi, the Europe of Berlin, Paris, London, Vienna may seem impossibly prosperous and peaceful. Let me remind that Europe of 1949, when the Council of Europe was created, was quite different: war-torn cities, ruined economy and uncertain future. The Council of Europe was created as a reaction to the horrors of war. What was the remedy? Respect for Human Rights, pluralistic democracy and the Rule of Law. These were the principles enshrined in Article 3 of the Statute. And Strasbourg, long the centre of bitter Franco-German conflicts, was chosen as the headquarters of the Organisation. I invite you to pause and think for a moment: the guns of the Second World War went silent 70 years ago on 9 May 1945. Four years later, on 5 May 1949, the Statute of the Council of Europe was signed.
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Now imagine that four years after the Armenian-Azerbaijan cease-fire of 9 May 1994, on 5 May 1998, a regional Organization for the respect of Human Rights, democracy and the rule of law was created and the town of Shusha was chosen for its seat. That is the meaning of Europe. Perhaps not everybody saw that back in 1949, but today there is no doubt: Europe is all about renouncing war, once and for all – also in the minds of political establishment and the public.
THE POLITICAL COURAgE, THE DIffICULT COMPROMISES, THE RECONCILIATION EffORTS – THIS IS ALL fOR THE REgION TO ACCOMPLISH Europe is all about reconciliation, assuming past history, learning how to live with one’s neighbors, accepting and enjoying diversity. Europe is by far not yet perfect. There is still a lot to be done, not only in the Southern Caucasus, in Europe and its neighborhood. And what about the South Caucasus as part of Europe? Even without detailed knowledge of history, a look at the map is enough - with Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhichevan, with their interspersed and mixed populations,
Azerbaijan and Armenia are tied together like Siamese twins. As late as 2001, it was manifested in the “joint Council of Europe accession option for Azerbaijan and Armenia”, chosen by all Council member States. When I spoke in 2002 to an audience in the Yerevan State University I used for the first time the metaphor of the Siamese twins. It was not to the liking of everybody. Several weeks later, the Armenian Ambassador to the OSCE mentioned it in Vienna and argued against my message. I found no reason to change my mind: yes, Azerbaijan and Armenia are inseparably linked together, as I pointed out also at the Baku University. trying to separate Siamese twins by the sword will inevitably lead to death for both. Azerbaijan and Armenia have only one future – to live together, as one organism, as two neighbours separated by borders which have lost all meaning in everyday life, as two states within the larger European family. As Secretary General I was used to organize workshops of young people from still existing conflict regions, e.g. Kosovo, Cyprus, Israel and Palestine in our proximity and of course the Southern Caucasus. In general it was always refreshing and promising how fast young people can overcome prejudices and stereotypes. E.g., when I had invited youngsters from Kosovo and the Middle East, on the first day the Albanians and Serbs from Kosovo told me how surprised they were seeing Israelis and Palestinians talking to each other, while the participants from the Middle East were shocked that the relations between different people living in the same area could be worse than in their part of the world. But after one week they all became friends!
Another year I brought together again young Israelis and Palestinians, Greeks and Turks from Cyprus and … Armenians and Azerbaijanis. I asked them to sit together in regional groups and work on conflict resolution. But not on their own conflict, but on one of the other regions, the ones from the Middle East on the Cyprus conflict, the Cypriots on the Nagorno Karabakh issue and the Caucasians on the Middle East case. All of them elaborated reasonable suggestions, for Cyprus a blue print of the Kofi Annan plan – but one year before the Secretary General of the UN came out with it, for Armenia and Azerbaijan a compromise which seemed for me to be acceptable for the partners and a very interesting approach for the Middle East.
What did young Armenians and Azerbaijanis suggest to Israel and the Palestinians? The essence was, don’t argue about the past, don’t waste time by blaming each other for mistakes of the past – just start where you are now. This is of course the only way to solve the Middle East conflict – if you are going to the past you end up with the Holy Books as land register, arguments used by the extremists of both sides. But then I asked my young friends from the Southern Caucasus – why shouldn’t we apply the same principle for your region. You do not need to deal with the past looking for problems.There are current problems enough. Of course, they are rooted in the past, and several of them belong to what I would call the Soviet legacy. WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT
A LOOk AT THE MAP IS ENOUgH WITH NAgORNO-kARAbAkH AND NAkHICHEvAN, WITH THEIR INTERSPERSED AND MIxED POPULATIONS, AzERbAIJAN AND ARMENIA ARE TIED TOgETHER LIkE SIAMESE TWINS There is the problem of Georgia, with two separatist entities, protected and supported by Russia. Hundreds of thousands refugees from these entities are staying in the rest of Georgia, dismantled of their property, separated from their homes, now nearly since a quarter of a century. The result of the attempt of former Georgian president Mikhail Sakashvili to solve one of the conflicts with military means is well known. The situation with Southern Ossetia became worse than before when there was a kind of status quo for ethnic Ossetians and ethnic Georgians. Azerbaijan is still suffering from the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. A large part of the country beside Nagorno Karabakh is occupied by Armenian forces, more than 1 million people had to flee from these 7 Azerbaijani districts and are living now as IDPs, far from their destroyed homes.. I visited refugees in 2004 and about 9 years later. I realized that Azerbaijan did a lot to provide for a life of dignity for these people. They have suffered enough; they should not endure alone the consequences of an unsolved conflict.
Due to the conflict Azerbaijan has to spend more than 4% of its GDP for the army. Another consequence of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is that the province of Nakhichevan is separated from Azerbaijan by Armenian territory and cannot be reached on land. But Armenia is suffering from the conflict too: The economies of both sides have been hurt by their inability to make substantial progress toward a peaceful resolution. Also here more than 4% of GDP goes to the military. The border to Turkey has been closed by Ankara in support of Azerbaijan as retaliation to the conflict with Azerbaijan. Between Yerevan and Ankara is also the open question of the recognition of the genocide of 1,5 million Armenians in the Ottoman empire. Allegedly up to half of the population has left the country due to the circumstances. The situation seems even worse in Nagorno Karabakh where 180,000 ethnic Armenians lived before the armed conflict and according to well-informed sources only one third is left. Due to the conflict Armenia is to a large extent dependent on Russian support. Talking about stability and security in the region one should not forget that Russia despite its involvement in Georgia and in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has its own problems in the Northern Caucasus, being confronted with islamist extremism. The international community succeeded in my view only to freeze the conflicts. The OSCE is involved in mediation efforts in several unresolved conflicts:The conflict in and around Nagorno-Karabakh - through the Minsk Group (co-chaired by France, the Russian Federation and the United States) and a Personal Representative of the Chairman-inOffice on the Conflict Dealt with by the OSCE Minsk Conference.
In the post-2008 conflict in Georgia - the OSCE, together with the UN and EU, cochairs the international Geneva Discussions in the wake of the conflict in Georgia. It also, with EUMM, co-facilitates the meetings of the Dvani/Ergneti Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) dealing with matters that affect the daily life of populations on the ground. You see what I mean when I say one does not need to deal with the past looking for problems. There are current problems enough. Priority should be given to solve the current problems the population of the whole region is suffering from. I admit that I don’t have a perfect recipe. But what I certainly know is that there is no military solution for any of the conflicts. The key words are dialogue, cooperation and reconciliation. This is what was happening in Europe, earlier or later. France and Germany have led the way. Shortly after Azerbaijan and Armenia joined the Council of Europe, the remaining border control facilities on the Bridge of Europe, connecting the neighbouring cities of Strasbourg in France and Kehl in Germany were completely dismantled and two new bridges were built. This was my first message – Europe is all about reconciliation, tolerance and enjoyment of diversity. I am deeply convinced – with political will and courage, within only one generation the South Caucasus can be a completely different place. My second message is about caring of the interest of the people. Fighting poverty, improving education and health services should be given priority to military expenditure. My third message is about cultural and regional co-operation. Here again, I wish to speak the exact words I spoke in Baku, in Tbilisi and in Yerevan:
Regional and transborder co-operation have given a remarkable contribution to the reunification and prosperity of Europe, we believe they can do much more so in the Caucasus region. This works not only between France and Germany. We can see that in another troubled region of Europe, the Western Balkans. Former enemies in SEE formed a Regional Council as well as CEFTA. By far not all problems have been solved including very serious ones such as the dispute over Kosovo. Nevertheless Serbia and Kosovo can both participate in these activities. However, the political courage, the difficult compromises, the reconciliation efforts – this is all for the region to accomplish. But Europe can help. The events in Ukraine have demonstrated that we would need a genuine PanEuropean security system – including Russia. Such a system should have a conflict management instrument which can be applied without further discussions. And such a system should cover of course the Southern Caucasus too. I am convinced that peace and reconciliation in the Southern Caucasus is feasible. In Baku as well as in Yerewan I expressed my wish to go one day by train from one capital to the other. And perhaps, like Strasbourg, one day the town of Shusha will become the symbol of reconciliation.
THE TWO TURbANS
WHAT TO ExPECT fROM HARD POWER IN IRAN
tHE ISLaMIc rEpubLIc of Iran has, undoubtedly, faced hard times and what came lately is no exception to that. The country, governed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (military, judiciary, broadcasting services) and President Hassan Rouhani, undergoes a period of suffocated economy, alert troops and pressured judiciary. It has now become a boiling cauldron where national security, journalism, money and energy sources intersect and interfere with each other; unfortunately, there is no better spell than time to give it a chance to recover and a clear direction to follow.
Luísa Monteiro MD Editor
the long-lasting flavour of biting the uranium bullet The multilateral discussion about Iran’s uranium enrichment program has been in vogue for over a decade. After suffering sanctions related to a supposedly pacific energy program since 2006, negotiations with F5+1 (France, United States, United Kingdom, Russia, China and Germany) were expected to reach a result on June 30th, after some previous agreements in Lausanne, on April 2nd. On a sad note, the conjoint signature of an official document does not seem to be possible for now, since some primordial and most sensitive points were still not discussed nor accorded.
It is true that Iran does not use its hard power to take countries into accepting its nuclear condition. Whether it could or not do so is still a mystery. In early February this year, Ayatollah Khamenei told economists and officials in Tabriz that the western sanctions will never come to an end, since the countries do not approve the Islamic revolution in the first place. Additionally, he said that if the embargoes were to be maintained, Iran could also follow this path and stop commercializing gas with the European nations, among others. In this point, hard and soft power strategies – or, at least, intentions - in Iran are not balanced, but mixed. President Rouhani’s negotiators try to diplomatically find a solution to the impasse, whereas the supreme leader accuses ‘the enemy’ of using sanctions to the hilt – for that reason, some even predict that there might be a rift between those two sides of the government, instead of the so called ‘smart power’, the ideal soft-hard power balance. Despite of making its own threats, the country continues to face embargoes due to refusing the proposal of an international team interviewing its scientists as well as an ‘anywhere, anytime’ inspection in military sites by foreign experts.
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As a signatory of the NPT (1968), it could not develop nuclear activities that do not meet pacific ends; even so, the sort of the researches made in Iranian territory has been doubted since 2002. It is impossible to say and useless to speculate what is being produced there, however it must be taken into account that the technology used to generate nuclear energy for pacifistic purposes takes a lot of time and funding to convert into military one (costs are connected mainly to the uranium enrichment process and actually building a sophisticated weapon system; a reason why countries start off with a military nuclear programme to obtain the nuclear weapon in the first place and afterwards comes the pacifistic nuclear energy part of the story).
IRAN SEEMS TO bE THE ONLY NATION gEOgRAPHICALLY PRESENT AND MILITARILY MIgHT ENOUgH TO fIgHT THE ISIS SPREADINg
It is also militarily well-equipped and prepared, counting on a strong Army and Navy, which makes the other countries very uncomfortable, especially those from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) (this is not to say that they are not making Iran nervous with their close bond to the US). Tehran has ambitions of fully controlling the Strait of Hormuz, an important choke point from the Persian Gulf, that would not only enable the country economical control over the whole region, controlling the exports of energy reserves by sea routes, but also militarily one, by barring the American presence there. It also has great ambition towards its due part of the rich Caspian Sea, claiming 20% of it against the 12% already offered by its Caspian neighbours. In all of those cases, it seems right to say that having a nuke would be, in turn, a way of reassuring its power, but, more than meaning the rise of its hard power, a way of coercing and threatening the Gulf countries, the thought creating friction with their main Western ally, the US. In this equation, we cannot forget about the one regional force that has both, nuclear weapons and a very offensive foreign policy strategies: Israel.
Lately, the mounting tension among these nations resulted in the use of Saudi-led forces to control a group of rebels based in Yemen, allegedly supported by Iran. That shows the power of the forces in Saudi Arabia, but it also evidences a paramilitary camIran is a great regional force in the Middle paign from Iran’s side that has been East and has a profound influence over its developed long ago and all its influence over Arab neighbours, having trained various mili- the region – and it is not because of dialogue. tias around the Arab World.
In addition to all of the above mentioned reasons and the fact that Iran is on the “wrong” side of the alliance axis in the Middle East, standing opposite to Saudi Arabia, Israel and the US, help build arguments – veiled or not- for the continuous and gradual use of hard power towards Iran, through economic bans. On the other hand, it is still to be thought why such countries do not seem to worry so much about the non-signatory nations of the NPT, where the presence of nukes is concrete and not a secret. It is even more ironical if the affinities between those territories and the Western, principally the American leadership, are perceived. the perks of being a military wall As a country of regional importance, Iran seems to be the only nation geographically present and militarily might enough to fight the ISIS spreading – it counts on a huge reservoir of manpower (according to the CIA factbook, 1,4 million people reach military significant age annually and, according to the Iran Intelligence website, 520,000 people are in active duty, being, by far, the most significant number in the region), masters the use of drones and counts on missiles, too – an arsenal that tends to increase, once Russia opted for lifting its 5-year ban and proceed with the sales of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. Also, the Persian nation has an old and close liaison with the militias in Iraq and Syria, in addition to Hezbollah and other groups. Its main influence can be noticed in the training of the soldiers, the financing of weapons and staff.
Even though it is the ideal nation to recur to – either for its experience in fighting ISIS on the ground level, or for being the one which is aiding military efforts against it – the Western coalition against ISIS, led by the United States, resists Iran`s joining in the effort of mitigating the actions of the jihadists. It is clear that the ISIS threat to the Arab world tends to bring historical foes closer, as it may happen to Iran and Iraq due to the Iranian help during the Iraqi occupation – commander and national figure Qassim Soleimani, from the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, was a resource offered by Iran to direct the Shiite militias against the extremists. This is not the first time Iran uses its military power in Iraq, though.. The Iran-Iraq war, that was long, albeit not beneficial for any of the parts involved, was a major example of how both of these countries were able to use their hard power on each other for eight years.
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The media worldwide speaks of strong governmental presence in the charges pressed, and the need for such a case is also put into question. Double citizenship of Rezaian is not recognized either, which makes it impossible for the diplomatic service of America to interfere. If convicted, the journalist can face up to six years in prison. But we are still to follow how the community is going to claim his rights – if at all.
The United States that, at the time, was politically and financially involved in the conflict, now assumes a more discrete role with air strikes and assistance to the local Iraqi Army, partly because of its unhealed wounds from the war in Iraq (ended in 2011), partly because of its own internal conflicts at the Finally, what can be said about Iran is that it Congress. is a country that has been through hard probations since 1979 with the fall of Reza Say it all or not at all Pahlevi. The latest elections, though, show a War and firepower are not the only issues moment in which the republican governthat currently worry Iran. Since ten months ment is more open to dialogue and, thereago, when the Iranian-American journalist fore, can be expected to soothe some of its Jason Rezaian, his wife and a photographer positions, yet it must count on gradual and were arrested under the charges of betrayal homeopathic changes once it is also adminand spying, the world turns its eyes with an- istrated by the ‘divine’, religious power, that tipathy to Ayatollah Kahmeini’s judiciary. tends to be stricter because of its doctrines. Both of the ladies were set free after paying Therefore, a fee, but the Iran-based Washington Post reporter was kept in prison and, since May Tehran still has a way to go when it comes to 25th, is being judged in a court that could choosing its weapons in order to achieve an only be attended by himself, the judge, the objective. Maybe this is the time for it to start prosecutor and an attorney who he could boosting its willingness to dialogue and its not choose, in a room reserved for the pros- impressive influence with a wiser, more goalecution of political crimes. oriented mindset.
IRAN`S SOfT SOLUTIONS fOR HARD REALITIES EvEn bEforE Soft poWEr was officially introduced into the vocabulary of international relations, its core principles were nevertheless exercised by state entities all over the world and although formally a new term, it was pragmatically speaking just a fresh term for old practices.
petra posega MD Editor Petra Posega is a Master`s degree student at the University for Criminal justice and Security in Ljubljana with a Bachelor`s degree in Political Science- Defense studies.
Iran is a good example for this argument; well into the Iranian revolution in 1979, ayatollah Khomeini understood perfectly well the principles of soft power, although the game had yet no name; he masterfully synchronized the various opposition forces against the Shah`s regime, utilizing the broader definition of a cultural identity rather than a parochial, nationalistic/political one and promoting the “revolution without borders”. An important extension of this identity bridge between broader Muslim populations also became the clear animosities towards Israel, or “Zionist colonizer”, that introduced Iran as an opposition force toward the established structures of power in the region. In addition to that, soft power of contemporary Iran is based upon religion, ethics, beliefs, ideology and science. Much of its influence originates in the country`s culture, beauty and spirituality, not to forget its literature, music, folklore and traditions. An element to reckon with is also the historical one for Iranians are ancestors of the great Persian Empire, dating back to 550 BC.
What is more, for a country, where the power of the supreme leader is believed to be derived from spiritual sources and based on divine, soft power is arguably a much more influential power than hard power itself. Soft power is here not only a political tool or a herald of national interests, but also a foundation for the national character, able to influence public opinions well beyond the state and regional borders. Iran is one of those countries that has been a subject to mounting pressure from the global community for at least a couple of decades now, most recently on the supposed military nuclear programme, making the success of soft power policy methods even more vitally important for the achievment of its foreign and dome stic policy goals. Country`s rich historical and manifold cultural identity has been an ideal and prolific source for the extended outreach to the world and a well exercised diplomatic practice.
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From the celebrations of the greatness of Persian Empire to the Shiite imbued identity spill over, Iranian heads of state, diplomats, prominent public figures and businessman have utilized Iran`s historical, civilizational and religious weight to pursue economic, political and strategic goals of Iran in the international community. Therefore, Iran has been very active in combining its geopolitics and cultural might to form a unique mixture of soft power tools, now able to even counter the omnipresent American influence in the region, with broader global implications. Many of the leverage in the Iranian soft power rests in the values of the Islamic republic, deriving from the Shiite Muslim traditions. The influence is two-fold: one part is composed from creating bonds with Shiite communities all over the world, forming a good basis for support of the country`s policies.
The other is centered around promoting the particular Islamic revolution culture and traditions abroad through the Islamic Culture and Relations Organization (ICRO), subordinated directly to the Supreme Leader`s Office. Because of its wide-spread activities and work, away from the spotlight and daily news, the ICRO can be seen as Iran`s leading network of soft power and an important tool for the dispersed recognition of ayatollah`s belief system beyond state borders. The ICRO institute is therefore mainly preoccupied with promoting the values, traditions and views of the country, concentrating on grooming ties with many Shiite Muslim communities around the world, most prolifically in states such as Iraq, Pakistan, Lebanon and Syria.The ICRO seeks to develop strong ties with local religious communities, establish links with local clerics and hold events on the various key dates in the Shiite Muslim calendar.
Additionally, the ICRO has established operating offices in many European countries, promoting the Persian language and literature and according to studies, Iran has reached its peak time of influence over the Persian speaking world population. The Islamic Republic has also been actively bolstering its economic opportunities in the region, soft power style, forming ties with numerous local businesses and providing energy needs to neighboring countries, particularly Iraq. Iranian business infrastructure exists also as far as Turkey and to a lesser degree in Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania. With energy ties expanding thorough Central Asia and all the way to China, the opportunities to influence regional policies are ever emerging. Accordingly, we can recognize many Iranian trade connections and deals as highly strategic in their nature. A good example for this is a state owned car manufacturing factory Khodoro, which is collaborating with Turkey and Malaysia to build cars for Muslim markets. Additionally, the factory is emerging as one of the biggest ones in the Middle Eastern car building industries. Strategic infrastructure is also part of the Iranian collage of soft power policies. The planned railroad connection between Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran is part of broader efforts to connect Iran to Central Asian republics and also China and Russia; therefore, aligning the country with the recent Chinese idea to revive and apply the old Silk Road concept to modern age options.
All of this can be intertwined with an alternative outlook on the world, not comprising anymore just out of the supposedly supreme power of the US but from many regional great powers, shaping the international political and strategic balance and the countering of American superiority has to be acknowledged as an additional great source for the Iranian soft power.
IRAN HAS bEEN vERY ACTIvE IN COMbININg ITS gEOPOLITICS AND CULTURAL MIgHT TO fORM A UNIqUE MIxTURE Of SOfT POWER TOOLS In the black and white world, powered by the alliance of the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel which is presenting Iran as belligerent, dangerous, heretical, non- Arab nation, Iran is striving towards the policy of “Neither West or East”, originating from the cold war era of the Islamic revolution, displaying an array of colors in the prism of Middle-Eastern relations. Accordingly, Iran has been masterfully exploiting its many and rich soft power means for forging closer ties with regional neighbors as well as other global allies. WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT
MANY Of THE LEvERAgE IN THE IRANIAN SOfT POWER RESTS IN THE vALUES Of THE ISLAMIC REPUbLIC, DERIvINg fROM THE SHIITE MUSLIM TRADITIONS The most slippery terrain for Iranian soft power influence will continue to be the regional religious abyss and misinterpretation of world politics. The profound case for the latter was most blatantly visible in the recent Arab spring uprisings, when Iranian Supreme Leader was widely criticized for labeling the wave of protests and revolutions as “Islamic” instead of revolutions of people of different religions, ethnicities and beliefs, striving for changes particularly in their socio- economic and political regimes.
Such oversimplifications do very little for Iranian public image and should be widely avoided in the future. Iran should therefore continue to rely on its soft power tactics to keep and obtain alliances, promote the non- western establishment, refrain from “over-religioulating” world politics and support the multipolar world order. Additionally, the recent agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue has arguably even strengthen the Iranian disposition as a strong regional actor in the Middle East and the Lausanne agreement has successfully started to crack the propaganda- filled image of an evil and uncooperative Iran, bolstered by the unholy trinity of US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Henceforth, we will hopefully be able to see how old realities fade into oblivion, if confronted with many smart decisions, soft moves and hard victories.
AzERbAIJAN CELEbRATES THE REPUbLIC DAY The first temporary government of Azerbaijan Democratic Republic under the leadership of Fatali Khan Khoyski was confirmed at that meeting of Azerbaijan National Council. 97 yearS have paSSed since the first democratic republic was Azerbaijani government was temporarily based in Gandja, as established in the East. Baku was under BolshevikDashnak control headed by Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was de- Stepan Shaumyan. On Septemclared on May 28, 1918 in Tbilisi by the ber 15, 1918 after the heavy Azerbaijan National Council headed by battles Azerbaijani National Mahammad Amin Rasulzade. The Decla- Army and Caucasian Islamic ration of Independence adopted by the Army led by Nuru Pasha liberNational Council of Azerbaijan said: Azer- ated Baku from Bolshevik, dashbaijani People have a power and Azerbai- nak and English military units jan located in the South-Eastern and independent Azerbaijani Caucasus is fully legitimate independent Government moved to Baku. country from today. The National Council elected by the people and the Temporary Azerbaijani Parliament was Government, which is responsible before solemnly inaugurated in Haji the National Council, will lead Azerbaijan Zeynalabdin Tagiyev’s school until the Assembly of Founders is estab- for girls (now the building of Manuscripts Institute named lished. after Fuzuli) at 13.00 on DecemAs Rasulzade was holding negotiations ber 7, 1918. Chairman of AzerNational Council on Azerbaijan’s independence with the baijan Ottoman Empire in Batumi, deputy chair- Rasulzadeh made a congratulaman of Azerbaijan National Council tory speech. Alimardan bey Hasan bey Agayev chaired the meeting, Topchubashov was elected where the Declaration of Independence chairman of the parliament, was announced. Mustafa Mahmudov Hasan bey Agayev first deputy chairman of the parliament. was secretary at the meeting.
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Topchubashov was attending the Paris Peace Conference and therefore Hasan bey agayev chaired the parliament. At the first meeting of the parliament Fatali Khan Khoyski’s government resigned and decision was made to form a new government. Fatali Khan Khoyski led the government again.
THE CREATION Of THE AzERbAIJAN DEMOCRATIC REPUbLIC WAS A HISTORICAL EvENT Of gLObAL IMPORTANCE. bECAUSE IT WAS THE fIRST DEMOCRATIC REPUbLIC IN THE MUSLIM WORLD
During the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, the parliament held 155 meetings. 10 meetings were held by the Azerbaijan National Council (May 27-November 19, 1918) and 145 – by the parliament of Azerbaijan (December 7, 1918 – April 27, 1920). More than 270 draft laws were discussed by the parliament and 230 of them were adopted. Members of the parliament represented in 11 factions and groups participated in the elaboration, discussion and approval of the legislation. 11 commissions were working at the parliament.
Now, the founding day of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic is celebrated as the National Holiday of Azerbaijan- the Republic Day and is non-working day in the country. By order of President Ilham Aliyev, the monument was erected in honor of ADR in the center of Baku. At the same time, by order of the Head of State, the anniversaries of founders of ADR Mamed Emin Rasulzade, Alimardanbey Topchubashov, Fatali Khan Khoysky memorialized and marked at the state level.
Azerbaijan Democratic Republic reached great achievements in the short period of its history. It was the first republic given voting right to the women and securing the equality between men and women. A great work has been done in the spheres of national army building, issuing national currency, establishing national bank, democratization, free elections, international relations and recognition of the independence of Azerbaijan by the international community, securing the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, conducting economic reforms and other fields. Unfortunately 23-month ADR was overthrown by the bolsheviks on April 28, 1920. The independence was officially recognized first by the Ottoman Empire on June 4, 1918.
President of Azerbaijan holds an annual reception dedicated to the Republic Day. Speaking at the recent ceremony held on May 27, the President said: "The creation of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic was a historical event of global importance. Because it was the first democratic republic in the Muslim world. We are proud that this history was written by the people of Azerbaijan. Founding ADR showed that Azerbaijanis are talented and progressive people."The head of state emphasized that the Azerbaijani state and the people revere the memory of the founders of the ADR. Due to the Republic Day, all the institutions in the country, diplomatic representations abroad and diaspora organizations are holding events. WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT