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BAITING THE BEAR U.S. CONGRESSIONAL ATTITUDES KEEPING RUSSIA THE ENEMY AZERBAIJAN AS A MODEL OF CIVILITY IN THE CASPIAN REGION KAZAKHSTAN BEYOND BORAT BRICS BANK COULD CHANGE THE GAME CULT OF PERSONALITY CREEP THE CAUCASIAN COLD WAR TURKMENISTAN A BRAND IN THE MAKING? FOOTBALL, MONEY AND POLITICS
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THE CASPIAN PROJECT WEEKLY EDITION www.moderndiplomacy.eu PROJECT TEAM DImITrIS GIaNNaKOpOuLOS Dr. maTThEW CrOSSTON TEJa paLKO pETra pOSEGa LuíSa mONTEIrO NINa LavrENTEva GabrIELa paSChOLaTI DO amaraL TaYLOr mOrSE JJ harpEr
Baiting the Bear
U.S. CongreSSional attitUdeS Keeping rUSSia the enemy
AMeriCA seeMs reluCtAnt in accepting the fairly benign fact that countries do not like to be dictated to and thus misses opportunities for creating new dialogues. This is especially prominent in explaining the poor relationship at the moment with Russia.
Dr. Matthew Crosston Matthew Crosston is Professor of Political Science, Director of the International Security and Intelligence Studies Program, and the Miller Chair at Bellevue University
There seems to be an element of purposeful animosity in the way Russia is viewed, analyzed, and engaged, especially at the so-called expert level and most prominently within the now Republican-controlled United States Congress. Perhaps one of the worst examples of this ‘analytical animosity’ comes with the over-reliance on ‘insider knowledge’ without actually vetting the source’s objectivity. As we will see below, what would be automatically deemed a horribly flawed research structure in academia, full of selection bias, too often ends up powering the opinions of major decision-makers in Washington DC. The recent exit of Alexander Sytnik as a senior fellow from the Russian Institute for Strategic Research is a prime example of this problem. Upon his exit early in 2015, Reshetnikov unleashed a torrent of information that, while interesting, really does not amount to more than just gossip and hearsay.
Worse, American media and political analysts adopted it almost wholly as fact rather than as one perspective from a motivated source to talk badly about Russia: “The Russian analyst’s scathing remarks about the country’s leadership and about the community of government experts confirm that the concept of Russian supremacy has a strong hold on the Russian leadership. These supremacist views are not limited to the post-Soviet space, where ‘only ethnic Russians are capable of creating statehood.’ The West is also seen as decadent and somewhat spiritually inferior to the Russians. The spread of such views in Russia, especially among the country’s leaders, precludes easy and quick solutions to the Ukrainian crisis, but rather suggests a relatively lengthy period of tensions between Russia and the West, even if Russian strongman Vladimir Putin were, for some reason, to step down.” (Italics mine)
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The tendency here is to use personal opinion as confirmation of fact when it could be easily rejected as biased material. The only confirmation taking place is the affirming of preconceived ideas and a particular agenda that undermines any new attitudinal environment developing between Russia and the United States. As a consequence, it is easy to find ‘research’ proclaiming Russian goals that have never been formulated or addressing Putin objectives that have never been stated. This is not to say that Russia is incapable of having ulterior motives or secret agendas. Truly every country to one degree or another has them. The criticism here is the propensity in the Russian analytical sphere to presume such agendas and then cherry picking information to affirm the assumption. In pure methodological terms, selection bias is rife within the community that analyzes Russia, leaving those analyses decidedly weak. This bias is only more pronounced when you leave academically- oriented think tanks/ news monitors and observe opinions within the corridors of American power. Traditionally, this focus has been on a decidedly antiRussian fervor coming from the Republican Party. However, this analysis would argue that except for a very brief and ultimately dashed Obama ‘reset’ Russian-American relations within Washington DC has always been dominated in both parties by this supposedly Republican mindset. That mindset sets a fairly stark characterization: Russia is an aggressive and untrustworthy dictatorship that is an innate contra diction to American values. As such it will inevitably always be a threat to U.S. interests and global security.
By all indicators, Russia is a threat not just to itself and its immediate neighbors but to the entire world, masking its own domestic failings and instabilities with an aggressive foreign policy that will never acquiesce to a more peaceful and cooperative global community. Indeed, in an American political world that specializes in ambiguous statements and plausible deniability, it is rather remarkable how freely the American Congress seems to deride Russia: John Boehner: “It is increasingly evident that Russia is intent on expanding its boundaries and power through hostile acts.” ted Poe: “The Russian bear is coming out of its cave because it got its feelings hurt because of the fall of the Soviet Union, and not it is trying to regain its territories.” Chris smith: accused a “repressive Russian regime” of “coddling dictators” around the globe from Central Asia to Syria to Cuba and Venezuela. trent Franks: After the conclusion of an arms deal between Russia and Venezuela, President Putin was called a “thugocrat” engaged in “dangerous alliances. Keep in mind all of the above statements were uttered before the 2014 crisis in Ukraine even broke out. So before the U.S. Congress received what has been portrayed as undeniable and irrefutable proof of Russian aggression in Ukraine, it was already quite prepared to view Russia solely as a corrupt kleptocracy willfully abusing human rights and powered by an irrational and paranoid hatred of the United States as the sole driver of its foreign policy.
While much hope was initially placed on the so-called Obama ‘reset’ in American relations with Russia in 2008, the reality is that enthusiasm quickly faded and subsequently placed the Democratic Party as squarely pessimistic and adversarial in its attitude toward Russia as the Republicans. Indeed, in today’s environment of divided government having a problem with Russia seems to be one of the few happy consensus points in Washington. The only problem, of course, is how that consensus is built more upon partisan posturing, each side trying to one-up the other in order to earn foreign policy merit points. There are voices that decry a picture being painted that combines inaccuracy with heightened rhetoric while purposely ignoring mitigating contexts and less negative observations. However, those voices are extremely rare and at the moment easily drowned out by the drumbeat of Russian derision.
Until those voices get louder or strive to become more prominent public figures in Washington, it seems there is little hope for an improvement in relations between the United States and Russia based on actual events in the real world. Image and attitude, unfortunately, seem to carry greater weight. Even more important to remember: in global affairs, at the super power level, every image is an amalgamation of competing perceptions and managed talking points that usually maintain only a passing resemblance to actual facts or empirical reality. It is not so much about communicating events as they really are, but rather how the rival powers wish reality to be seen. The job of analysts and policymakers alike should be to get past such myth-making when it becomes the actual impediment to greater cooperation.
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AzERbAIJAN AS A MODEL Of CIvILITY IN THE CASPIAN REgION To many around THe world, Azerbaijan is considered a remote and mysterious place. If they have even heard of it. This is surprising because it borders four countries that have commanded much global attention over the past few years; Russia, Georgia, Armenia, and Iran. This may be because, save for its conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the country doesn’t have as much drama to offer the world. They are much more concerned about peace, security, sovereignty, and political independence; things that don’t normally dominate headlines. JJ Harper
JJ Harper is a graduate student in the International Security and Intelligence Studies program at Bellevue University in Omaha, NE, USA.
Azerbaijan was the first and one of the very few Muslim-majority countries that is both truly democratic and secular. It has a separation of powers among three branches: executive, legislative, and judicial. It is one of the few Shia-majority countries. It has also proven to be very strategic geopolitically in that it has several important alliances both regionally and internationally. Turkey, a Sunni-majority country is one of these important alliances. The two are very culturally and linguistically similar and Turkey has backed Azerbaijan in all its major disputes including the conflict over the NagornoKarabakh region.
Strikingly, Azerbaijan has robust relations and a hearty trade agreement with Israel and still somehow has a warm relationship with Iran – even in the face of recent accusations that Israel is using Azerbaijan as a base for its military operations against Iran. There was some tension between the two countries when Ahmadinejad was Iran’s president but things have gotten much better since President Rouhani took the reins. Even though there are some issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and international sanctions, the border between Azerbaijan and Iran is open and they have pretty solid trade agreements. They share a lot of history, culture, ethnicity, and religion – even though Azerbaijan is much more secular and allows religious freedom. It is also much friendlier towards the West and even allows women to wear whatever they choose.
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There have been some minor tensions between Baku and Tehran over these issues but because Azerbaijan has been so gracious towards Iran in regards to joint exploration and production of oil in the Caspian Sea, these disagreements have not become too serious. Since most of the Caspian Sea’s deposits are either in the center or to the north of the Sea and this agreement would give Iran a more equal share, this has given them a considerable opportunity to boost their economy.
THE WAY AzERbAIJAN IS HANDLINg THEIR TRANSITION fROM A SOvIET REPUbLIC TO A MODERN, SOvEREIgN NATION IS ADMIRAbLE Speaking of economies, Azerbaijan’s economy is very strong due to its vast oil and natural gas reserves. The country has a complex system of trestles, pipelines, and causeways that connect the oil reservoirs off-shore in the middle of the Caspian Sea. This isn’t too surprising as they’ve been at it for a long time. In fact, Azerbaijan is the builder of the world’s first off-shore oil platform and the Baku port is the largest and busiest harbor in the Caspian Sea. Even though it has been more than a decade since the country declared its independence, the transfer of ownership of land and businesses from the state to individuals has been delayed.
While most agricultural ventures are privatized, the government controls the oil and energy industries. Contrary to government track records, it is doing a surprisingly good job at it. It has paired with Western companies that will use less damaging methods and equipment to extract its natural gas and petroleum deposits. The same goes for the oil and natural gas found beneath the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijan, with the help of more than twenty companies, led by the United States and Britain, are in the process of building a three billion dollar pipeline from Baku through the republic of Georgia to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. From there, the oil will be shipped to the United States which will even further boost Azerbaijan’s economy. In addition to Azerbaijan’s oil industry, it also has rich supplies of other natural resources, a highly profitable and diversified agricultural industry, and fisheries – another benefit from the Caspian Sea. The country is a major source of caviar, which is considered a very valuable export. Even with problems stemming from pollution and overfishing, Beluga caviar – which comes from a very particular species of sturgeon found here – still fetches a high price and contributes to the country’s economy. The Azeris, who enjoy a very low unemployment rate by world standards, take great pride in their country and place a very high value on sovereignty. While there have been ethnic conflicts and clashes over religion, most minorities – including Jews and Christians - have lived in relative peace. With the exception of the violence that erupted in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan has a very casual and relaxed atmosphere.
This contradictory approach to Islam is most likely due to new ideas that are increasingly challenging the traditional ways of doing things. Their rapidly changing environment may be forcing them to make adjustments to their attitudes and way of life. And there are no doubts here that their willingness to adapt will ultimately pay off. In fact, almost everything about the way Azerbaijan is handling their transition from a Soviet Republic to a modern, sovereign nation is admirable. From their ambitious efforts to preserve their ancient history to their desire to promote peace and stability in the region to their ability to build and maintain diplomatic relationships with key players in the Caspian Sea region (and beyond), Azerbaijan appears to have a very promising future. Their approach may have the potential to change the way the West and the Muslim world relate. After all, they were the first Muslim country to embrace theaters, operas, and modern-day universities.
Now, they hold membership with 38 international organizations including the United Nations and work closely with NATO. The annual Caspian Oil and Gas Show held in Baku helps bring important visitors into the country and, even though some political activists have used the high-profile EU games event to shine a light on government corruption within the country, Azerbaijan will still gain a lot of positive visibility and will, in the near future, prove to the world it has earned the right to be recognized as – thanks to the Caspian Sea – one of the great producers of oil and natural gas. While there are of course challenges involving the fight against corruption, more equitable economic development, and continued relations in the often troubled Caucasus, on the whole there is much to praise in Azerbaijan. Though relatively small, it may just one day be able to accurately consider itself a model for civil and open interstate relations in this critical part of the world. WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT
KazaKhStan Beyond Borat KAzAKhstAn, it seeMs, hAs A very CleAr and coherent idea of what kind of image does it want to project on the international stage and more so, what kind it does not.
Petra Posega MD Editor Petra Posega is a Master`s degree student at the University for Criminal justice and Security in Ljubljana with a Bachelor`s degree in Political Science- Defense studies.
After the infamous movie Borat, which once again showed how powerful of a tool branding can be, Kazakhstan was left to a PR disaster, significantly fuelled with the public`s educational deficiency. The unfolding events were interesting because the movie itself was actually targeting the stereotyping and ignorance of (mainly) American audience, but had a different effect, especially in the western countries, for precisely the same reasons. That resulted in a branding fiasco for Kazakhstan, for many were left convinced that there were leaving and breathing Borats all over the place. This was a warning sign for all those countries who did not yet establish a powerful image of themselves in the international community, for these so called unbranded countries always run the risk of not being in full control of their image and reputation (and, as in the case of Borat, someone else can quickly do that for them). In reality, Kazakhstan has been trying since the early years of independence to introduce the country to the awareness of the global community.
Although reluctantly declaring independence from the Soviet Union, it has become vital for the country to differentiate itself from Russia to gain significantly in its soft power repertoire of tools. This process, along with the strategic positioning of the country, gave rise to the well- known Kazakhstan image of being able to balance the interests of many great powers, intersecting in the Central Asia, including Russia, China, US, EU, Turkey and Iran. Thus, Kazakhstan developed the approach of multi- vector foreign policy, enabling the country to fruitfully cooperate with various international players. Many of its sustained efforts on the image building go into the promotion of constructing bridges between the East and the West, which is becoming ever more important in the light of the recent Ukrainian crisis. By positioning itself as the sort of regional mediator, Kazakhstan is asserting that it could be able to some degree defuse the simmering conflict between Kremlin and the West.
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The process of winning the hearts and minds is especially focused on evading the possibility of Kazakhstan being dragged down by Western sanctions imposed on Russia. The balancing of the powerful interests on the axis East- West is surely not easy, but beneficial for the world striving to break from such black and white divisions. The country therefore seeks its external legitimization and is pursuing its aim via variety of different avenues. It is already represented in the UN Human Rights Council and has successfully bid for chairmanship of OSCE in 2010. In addition to that, Kazakhstan is bidding for the non- permanent seat in the UN Security Council for 2017 and hoping to host the Winter Olympics in 2022.All these efforts are concerned with presenting a good role model for the former Soviet republics, other countries with similar backgrounds and developing nations in general. The fruits of Kazakhstan multi- vector foreign policy and successful engagement in the international affairs are definitely one of the images Kazakhstan wants to be renowned for.
“Kazakhstan- the honest broker” is therefore surely one of the loudest mantras in the country PR machine. In addition to prolific regional and global involvement, Kazakhstan also has a long track-record of promoting nuclear non- proliferation and supporting peaceful resolutions and dialogue. Last year, Astana co- founded the launch of a Brussels- based think- tank, Eurasian Council of Foreign Affairs and is also preparing for the imminent launch of an official development aid program called KazAID, initially intended to focus on the immediate neighborhood with the help of the UN Development Program. KazAID does not mark the first time that the country has decided to embark upon providing development aid, but it is the first organized attempt to do so. Kazakhstan has provided millions of dollars worth of medicines, fuel, seeds and other basic supplies for Kyrgyzstan during its political and humanitarian crisis in 2010 and has funded a scholarship program for Afghan students for several years now.
By poSitioning itSelf aS the Sort of regional mediator, KazaKhStan iS aSSerting that it CoUld Be aBle to Some degree defUSe the Simmering ConfliCt BetWeen Kremlin and the WeSt
The new agency, KazAID, will therefore provide organization and systematization on a higher level for upcoming projects of such nature and align them with the country`s other foreign policy and economic goals. Since Kazakhstan is commonly referred to as the most developed and economically stable nation of the Central Asia and Caucasus it might be, combined with its rising international profile, optimally enabled to provide such help in order to assist in securing a broader regional stability and development. In addition to widening the regional and global involvement, Kazakhstan Is looking into another tool for introducing the country Rather, Kazakhstan focuses on achieving exto the wider population and boost the soft ternal legitimization as a cooperative, develpower strength; tourism. oped and reliable actor on the international stage. The country supposedly intents to invest Being an authoritarian country on the slow some 10 billion $ to develop its tourism sec- path towards democratization, internal legittor by 2020 and has dropped the strict visa imization is a dierent story than that of exregime to introduce a temporary visa- free ternal. Like in many other similar regimes, the regime for 10 selected countries, including regime`s success lies in the capability to United States, Britain, Japan, the U.A.E., Ger- build a plausible narrative on the outlined many, and Malaysia. It has been said that if development path for the country and connothing else, Borat sparked the interest for sequently gain substantial support from the the country among the travelling souls, put- overall population. For now, the economic ting the country on the map for the go- to growth, substantial FDIs, multi- vector forplaces and Kazakhstan has been trying ever eign policy, successful regional and internasince to capitalize on this. tional engagement, good neighborhood Similar to other Central Asian states, but policy, border delimitation treaties with all rather other developing countries of the neighboring countries as well as the celebraworld, too, Kazakhstan does not rely on its tion of multinational character of the popuhard power. Its military is focused on regional lation, equal rights to dierent religions and common security structures and peacekeep- strict prohibition of voicing overly radical ing support operations and is domestically views, be it religious or political, have kept under reforms to become capable of han- the population in consent with the regime, dling low- intensity conflicts, therefore estab- even though the latter has a track record of lishing smaller, more specialized and more human rights violations and oppression of mobile units. democratic values.
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Many analysts agree that the current economic crisis, combined with the Western sanctions on Russian economy, could harm the social contract between the people of Kazakhstan and the regime in Astana. Clearly, this reality has not escaped its leadership for there have been many incentives and initiatives to boost the economy that found itself at a standstill. Holding early presidential elections this year was therefore a logical step for the country`s president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who won yet another term in the office. His victory (although not meeting all the requirements for free and fair elections) has reassured him on his position, immobilize any attempts from outsiders to instrumentalize internal political dissent and strengthen the social trust of the population. Henceforth, everything depends on the regime`s capability to meet the promised ends. Accordingly, Kazakhstan might have to reconsider the strategy of attracting the attention from the international community through costly, big and ambitious events.
Another issues Kazakhstan may have in the future is the fact that much of the approval the country receives for its work and attitude in the international community can be turned into a PR campaign of its leadership. Consequently, it is not the country that gets promoted, but the president. That might not be a step into the right direction, especially since it is largely seen as a diversion from the topics of human rights abuses inside the country, although the recently signed Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the EU brings about hopes for improvement. Or, as Kazakhstan Minister of Foreign Affairs Erlan Idrissov said: “Rare among Eastern countries, Kazakhstan is a secular state that is making progress towards creating our own distinct and culturally attuned democracy. As with all young countries, we may sometimes falter, but I have no doubt that we are on the right road”.
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BRICS BANk COULD CHANgE THE gAME In full-fledged preparatIon for the official launch of BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) as an extraordinary highlight event during the July Summit under his chairmanship, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ratified an agreement on the establishment of a $100 billion BRICS pool of currency reserves, according to a document published early May on Kremlin’s official website.
Kester Kenn Klomegah Kester Kenn Klomegah is an independent researcher and writer on African affairs in the EurAsian region and former Soviet republics.
Putin signed the federal law “On ratification of the Treaty establishing the pool contingent of foreign exchange reserves of the BRICS countries.” The federal law was first passed by the State Duma (Lower House) on April 24 after series of parliamentary deliberations and was finally approved by the Federation Council (Upper House) on April 29, 2015. The agreement provides for the establishment BRICS pool contingent of foreign exchange reserves in order to provide financial support in the event of the partners of the BRICS problems with dollar liquidity in their domestic financial systems. This means that the $100 billion pool will maintain financial stability of the BRICS countries and allow for defenses against market volatility. The fund is meant to shield the BRICS against “short-term liquidity pressures” and promote greater cooperation between the five member countries. On July 15 last year, in the city of Fortaleza (Brazil), BRICS members (Russia, China, Brazil, India and South Africa) signed an agreement to establish the $100 billion development bank, as well as a $100 billion reserve currency pool. China is set to
provide the largest share of $41 billion to the pool, while Russia, Brazil and India will provide $18 billion each. South Africa is set to chip in the remaining $5 billion. The headquarter is expected to be based in China’s Shanghai. The group agreed that India will preside as president on its first year. Russia, meantime, will be the chairman of the representatives. Professor Georgy Toloraya, an Executive Secretary at the National Committee on BRICS Studies, in an interview with Buziness Africa notes the significance of BRICS bank as a catalyst to other international financial institutions, and explains further that “the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (АIIB) is a regional bank while the New Development Bank (NDB) is supposed to have a global outreach.” “The AIIB is technically Chinadominated and will center on projects, interesting to China. The New Development Bank (NDB) will have equal representation. Thus, it’s influence in changing the global financial architecture can be bigger.
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But competition is a good thing for these two banks as well,” the Executive Director wrote in an email comment to Buziness Africa. He also recalls Russia’s suggestion to reform the international financial and economic architecture (including the International Monetary Fund) in the context of new developments in the world economy taking into account the legitimate interests of all the countries in order to create a more representative, stable and predictable system, reduce risks of destabilization of monetary and stock markets related to the massive cross-border movements of capital. Toloraya points out assertively that an effort should be to create the road map of investment cooperation in the BRICS framework, conclude a multilateral agreement on the encouragement and protection of investments, and to single out areas for intra-BRICS cooperation and to develop cooperation in new technologies. Contributing to this discussion, Professor David Shinn, who is an Adjunct Professor of International Affairs at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, argues in an email interview that “the BRICS New Development Bank is not yet functioning and it is not clear how the five original partners will share power. Other countries have been invited to join the bank, which could further alter the decision making process.” The idea is that the five countries contribute a total of $100 billion for an initial capitalization pool for the bank. Should some countries contribute more than others, it is safe to assume those countries will have more leverage than those who put in lesser amounts, the former U.S. Ambassador and now Professor argues, adding that “the devil is always in the detail.”
It is also important to remember that the bank is the first tangible result of the BRICS, five countries that have only one thing in common: at the time they joined BRICS they were the largest economies in their geographical regions. The Nigerian economy has now surpassed South Africa’s economy, so even this commonality is in question, he says. “I don’t really see the BRICS New Development Bank as operating in competition with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. There is much to be done in the developing world generally and Africa specifically that will accommodate both banks in addition to the contributions of the World Bank and African Development Bank. So long as the BRICS bank is run competently and follows international standards, I expect it will make a positive contribution. But first it has to open its doors and start making loans,” concluded Professor Shinn According to the biographical history, David Shinn is an American diplomat and professor. He is currently an Adjunct Professor of International Affairs at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. He offers consultancy to the U.S. Government on the Horn of Africa and Sino-African relations. He served previously as an Ambassador to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso. Undoubtedly, South Africa is a minority contributor to the total currency reserve pool (contingent reserve arrangement - CRA) but an equal contributor to the New Development Bank (NDB or BRICS Bank). With the CRA, the funds committed remain in possession of South Africa.
“The rhetoric is that South Africa’s voice in BRICS financial matters is not going to be compromised, despite being a minority contributor to the CRA, yet South Africa has been shut down in BRICS negotiation processes before and there is a strong tendency for this arrangement as well as the NDB, which will be headquartered in Shanghai, to be driven by China,” says Hannah Edinger, a Director at Frontier Advisory (a research, strategy and investment advisory firm that assists clients to improve their competitiveness in emerging market economies) headquartered in South Africa. Similarly, Edinger further explains, the AIIB is China’s brainchild and one more initiative to give China a greater leadership voice in the region, given that reform of existing institutions such as the World Bank and broadly speaking global governance has been slow and not that reflective of China’s economic rise.
While focus of both the NDB and the AIIB will be on infrastructure project financing, I don’t think these two banks will necessarily go head to head in terms of competition. Even with the existing Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the region, there is room for co-financing of projects, given that in Asia the infrastructure funding gap is multiple trillions of dollars. Underlining the high relevance of these two banks, Edinger told me that “in fact, India’s infrastructure deficit alone is already in the multiple trillions of dollars…. Current lending institutions in the regions are unlikely to fill this gap, and even when the NDB and the AIIB are at full lending capacity they might still not plug the deficit. Also, the NDB’s mandate will not only focus on Asia, but also on Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. I think the challenge for both banks will be to find good projects.” WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT
Alex Vines, a Director for the Africa Programme at Chatham House in London, explains to Buziness Africa that South Africa’s inclusion in the BRICS has been a way for the ANC government to leverage its foreign policy, and position itself within the emerging narrative on South-South cooperation and trade. Their support for the creation of a New Development Bank is a continuation of this, and although only Russia has ratified it so far, the South African’s are in the final stages of ratifications.
THE BANk’S SHORT TERM CHALLENgES WILL BE LOgISTICAL, COMPLETINg BASIC THINgS LIkE HIRINg STAff, BUILDINg INTERNAL OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES The Agreement on the New Development Bank that formerly established the bank at the VI BRICS summit in Brazil last year stated that each of the founding members will initially subscribe to an equal number of shares, indicating equal voting rights on those shares. The bank will invest primarily in infrastructure projects in both BRICS and nonBRICS countries, and the establishment of the first regional office in Johannesburg will give access to the African continent where infrastructure development needs are highest.
The establishment of the first regional office in Johannesburg will give a boost to South Africa’s attempts to market itself as the ‘gateway to Africa’, a position it has had difficulty maintaining against emerging regional hubs such as Lagos and Nairobi. The bank will also deepen the political relationship between China and South Africa. “The NDB is the first tangible outcome from the BRICS organization, but the political relationship between China and South Africa extends outside the organization. China has become South Africa’s main trade partner, and South Africa is China’s largest partner on the African continent,” he wrote in an email to Buziness Africa. Plans for the Asian infrastructure Investment Bank are still in their infancy, the MOU was only signed last October, but it looks like these institutions will complement, rather than compete with, each other. Vines also said: “the establishment of the NDB was in part a reaction to under-representation in the existing international financial institutions, but it is unlikely that they will become direct competitors. It is estimated that the infrastructure investment requirement developing countries tops $1trillion per year, so there is plenty of room for new players in the marketplace, including the World Bank’s proposed Global Infrastructure Facility.” In the case of the BRICS bank, Christopher Wood, a Researcher on Economic Diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), also explains in an email discussion recently…“China does not actually contribute more.
All five countries are contributing $10 billion of callable capital to start with, giving them equal say in the decisions of the banks. Where China does contribute more is in the case of the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, which is a separate agreement that is a pool money that the five BRICS can draw on in times of financial crisis. The best way to think about the relationship between the two is that the BRICS New Development Bank is like the World Bank (providing funding for development projects), while the CRA is like the IMF (providing emergency funding in times of crisis).” In the case of the CRA, South Africa does have a very small voice, but it’s not so important in this type of organization. The only decisions that will be made will be over whether to release funds to a country that requests help, and this would usually be an easy decision to make, based on hard economic evidence, according to Wood. There are challenges to overcome. Researcher Wood thinks that “the bank’s short term challenges will be logistical, completing basic things like hiring staff, building internal operational procedures, and so on. Once this is completed, two larger challenges will present themselves.
First, making a decision on what projects to fund, which will involve answering difficult questions on what type of projects the bank prioritizes, where it most wants to operate, and what role political priorities might play. Second, would be in building relationships with existing funders, like the World Bank and AIIB, to assure the BRICS bank doesn’t have to bear all the risk of the projects it gets involved in.” On the other hand, Wood does not think China’s position in both the AIIA and BRICS bank indicates it wants to dominate the global space of these institutions, but certainly indicates it wants to play a bigger role. Traditional institutions are still dominated by developed countries and reforms that would give a bigger voice to countries like China have been very slow. In the Asian Development Bank, for example, the US and Japan each have more than twice as much voting power as China.
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The new institutions represent China’s frustration with the lack of reform and the persistence of a voting structure that doesn’t reflect its growth into a global superpower. Chris Weafer, a Senior Partner with Macro Advisory, a consultancy advising macro hedge funds and foreign companies looking at investment opportunities in Russia, said in comments published recently that “within this new group, Russia certainly has a role because the country is the world’s biggest energy exporter and, on aggregate, the world’s biggest minerals exporter. Neither China nor India could sustain their current high pace of growth without either direct materials imports from Russia or, indirectly, from the global marketplace.” He says “that alone justifies a seat at the BRICS table. Beyond that, Russia is already one of the largest consumer markets in the world and is, on a per capita and per household basis, the largest in the emerging market world.”
The idea to set up BRICS bank was first proposed by India and that topped the agenda at the summit of the group in New Delhi in March 2012. India believes a joint bank would be in line with the growing economic power of the five-nation group. The bank could firm up the position of BRICS as a powerful player in global decision-making. India believes that a BRICS bank could, among others, issue convertible debt, which would arguably be top-rated and can be bought by central banks of all BRICS countries. BRICS countries would thus have a vessel for investment risk-sharing. The BRICS countries collectively represent about 26% of the world’s geographic area and are home to 42% of the world’s population. The BRICS consumer market is the largest in the world and is growing by $500 billion a year. Since the start of April, Russia has assumed the presidency of the BRICS group, taking over the position from Brazil. The next BRICS summit will take place in Ufa, the capital of Russia’s Volga republic Bashkiria, on July 8-10, 2015.
CULT Of PERSONALITY CREEP In 2006, when TurkMenbashI (“Father of all Turkmens”), President Saparmurat Niyazov, suddenly died and was replaced by former Health Minister and dentist Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, there was hope and open discussion that some of the more farcical eccentricities of the previous president would be removed.
Dr. Matthew Crosston Matthew Crosston is Professor of Political Science, Director of the International Security and Intelligence Studies Program, and the Miller Chair at Bellevue University
Indeed, President Berdymukhamedov seem to give fuel to those hopes when some of his first moves in office were to rename the months of the calendar back to their original names (Niyazov had given them all new names based off of his own and mother’s), replacing the image of the former president from Turkmen currency except for the highest denomination, the 500 manat note (before that Niyazov’s image adorned EVERY single bank note issued by the Turkmen central bank), and even lessoning the ‘testing standards’ needed by students and teachers when it came to memorizing and knowing the Rukhnama (The Book of the Soul), which was basically a treatise supposedly written by Niyazov and meant to de facto replace all forms of holy books for the Turkmen people. Heady times indeed and cause for optimism for the Central Asian nation that is the world’s fourth-largest producer of natural gas and sometimes considered as having the potential for being a Central Asian UAE.
Unfortunately, the progression of time and the lure of megalomania have proven to be too seductive a temptress. As a result, Turkmenistan may be headed back into the abyss of political dementia. A country that once had pictures and posters of Niyazov adorning everything, from buildings to streets to books to bus stops, now seems to have a similar frequency of Berdymukhamedov posters. There is discussion that there ‘might be a need’ for the Turkmen central bank to issue a new higher denomination note, the 1000 manat, and I bet it won’t be a surprise to many readers as to whose visage is going to adorn it.While the current president repealed the rather odd ban on opera enacted by Niyazov, he has inexplicably enforced a new ban on ballet (no logical explanation seems to be offered for this thought process, humorously, although personally I would have favored the ban to be switched back). The renaming of streets and schools, especially in rural areas across the countryside, has begun in earnest, honoring either the president or members of his family.
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Vanity construction projects abound throughout the country, including the most recent park which contains a massive fountain holding a giant golden statue of Berdymukhamedov riding a fierce stallion (rumors persist that the statue is of course not goldplated but solid gold).
TURkMENISTAN HAS TAkEN A SMALL STEP AWAY fROM THE AbYSS THAT ONCE CHARACTERIzED THOSE ISSUES UNDER NIYAzOv While the laundry list of ego-stroking could go on forever, perhaps the fact that the Turkmen President had the Council of Elders bestow the formal title of Arkadag (The Patron) on himself while fervently praising the new publication, Adamnama (Book for All Humanity), which he of course wrote, is the most telling: in these last two examples I would argue it is no longer about trying to replace one cult of personality for another or the attempt to erase from collective cultural memory his predecessor, but rather it is the embracing and institutionalization of such cults to a truly astounding level. The Father is now succeeded by The Patron. After having memorized and adopted your Book of the Soul, young Turkmen citizens can focus on understanding the profundities of the Book for All Humanity.
The hope of a new dawn of global community normalcy and international economic engagement is dashed against the rocks of cult of personality creep. Indeed, while it may be amusing and Willy Wonka fascinating for outside readers to learn of these strange goings-on in Turkmenistan, one should not underestimate the seriousness such creep has on the future of the country. For every street renaming or school rededication, for every statue unveiling and banknote pressing, regular everyday citizens feel essential freedoms limited and constrained. Some on the local scene would have you believe it is now more difficult as a citizen of Turkmenistan to leave the country, even for vacation, than it is for foreigners to get permission to come in to the country. While formal state statistics declare unemployment at a globally admirable 5%, most rational international agencies estimate it to be far closer to 50%. The US Peace Corps, hardly what anyone would consider a radical politically-motivated foreign agency, was banned from the country, while media and freedom of speech remains under tight state control. Security in general remains at a permanent high level. Unfortunately for the state, people no longer believe the government-propelled messages to remain a ‘stable island’ in a sea that has them surrounded by countries like Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.In the frantic height of America’s Global War on Terror both Niyazov and Berdymukhamedov utilized that opportunity to maximum ‘domestic control’ effect. The popular support and belief in such heavy-handedness today, however, seems to be dramatically dissipating.
Whether that actually translates into civil unrest or disobedience seems unlikely, however: breaking a cult of personality is sometimes more complicated and more difficult than transitioning from a more ‘simple’ autocratic regime. This is not to say nothing done by the Arkadag has been good or successful. But these accomplishments, I think, need to be placed more firmly in their contextual relativism: when people praise improvements made in schools, hospitals, internet access, or domestic travel, it is not saying Turkmenistan has become a model of democratic liberalism for other Central Asian or Caspian countries to follow. Rather, it is simply saying it has taken a small step away from the abyss that once characterized those issues under Niyazov.Normally, jumping from a -3 to a +3 on a scale of 1 to 10 is indeed cause for careful optimism.
As we know, consolidated institutionalized democratic principles are not built in a day. But the worry, it seems to me, is in getting to that +3 on the scale might now be deemed ‘good enough’ by those in power. Thus the ensuing emphasis on all of these vanity projects and side endeavors that really won’t result in the improvement of any normal citizen’s standard of living or quality of life. Turkmenistan could indeed be a UAE for Central Asia, Ashgabat its Dubai. But it is not. Not today. Such is the constant and continuous burden for a Turkmen: you keep getting a Papa and a Patron, with a Rukhnama and an Adamnama, when all you really want and need is a President with a Constitution that truly measures up to the global standards and stops worrying about the cult of personality creep.
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THE CAUCASIAN COLD WAR The phrase ‘ColD war’ typically brings about thoughts of a worldwide geopolitical struggle. However there is a new ‘Cold War’ brewing in the Caucasus with Turkey’s growing relations in the region. Through the new establishment of close military ties with Georgia and Azerbaijan, Turkey is showing its geostrategic goal of dominating the Caucasus region. Georgia and Azerbaijan’s individual interests that are adversarial to Russia align with Turkey’s goal of being the dominant player in the region thus beginning the Caucasian Cold War between Russia and Turkey.
Taylor Morse Taylor Morse is currently a graduate student in the International Security and Intelligence Studies Program at Bellevue University in Omaha, NE, USA.
Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Turkey has been seeking to expand its influence in the former Soviet Republics in the Eurasian region. This has typically come through economic ventures and cultural exchanges due to many of these states having Turkish backgrounds or minorities. These moves have been of great importance to the growing Turkish economy and for the expansion of Turkish soft power within the region. However forging large scale military ties in this region highlights Turkey’s desire to secure these interests. Turkey has much to gain economically from solidifying its relationships with Georgia and Azerbaijan. The elephant in the room of this relationship pertains to the involvement in the pipeline system from the Caspian Sea onward.
In addition to this access to the pipeline there are other economic incentives that can be built upon such as the free trade agreement with Georgia. Azerbaijan also does significant trade with Turkey as well. Ensuring the security of the pipelines through these alliances will benefit Turkey most of all. Through establishing these closer relationships with Georgia and Azerbaijan, Turkey will grow its soft power in the Caucasus region. There are few cultural links with Georgia to build upon, but keeping the Russians out is a shared interest which Turkey can build upon through this defense cooperation. Azerbaijan is a majority Muslim state, though it is Shia and Turkey is Sunni, but this and shared cultural backgrounds have already paved the way for Turkish influence in Azerbaijan. Like in Georgia, keeping the Russians out will cement Turkey’s stance in the region. Therefore Turkey is seeking to continue steering these states away from Russian and into its umbrella of influence through this defense cooperation.
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Georgia has perhaps the most to gain from this defense cooperation. Having suffered a defeat from the massive Russian military in the 2008 war, with Russian forces occupying Georgian claimed lands, Georgia has been seeking further security guarantees. Before that war and after it has sought NATO membership to no avail thus far. This defense cooperation could get Georgia what it wants though.
TURkEY IS SEEkINg TO CONTINUE STEERINg THESE STATES AWAY fROM RUSSIAN AND INTO ITS UMbRELLA Of INfLUENCE Turkey has one of the best militaries in the world. Having a security guarantee from Turkey would ease the Georgian stress concerning their neighbor to the north. This defense cooperation accomplishes their shared goal. Turkey will increase its power in the Caucasus region through keeping Russia out. Georgia will keep Russia out through teaming up with Turkey. Although Turkey and Georgia have this shared goal, Georgia has other motives as well.
Before and after the 2008 war, Georgia has sought NATO membership to no avail. By increasing their ties with Turkey, a NATO member, Georgia will also build its rapport with the alliance. NATO’s unofficial strategy of moving into former Soviet States to deny Russian influence is in alignment with Turkey’s strategy to gain influence in the Caucasus. Therefore in addition to securing itself through Turkey, Georgia may make headway with getting its NATO membership. Azerbaijan is set to benefit from the new defense cooperation with Turkey as well. Since its independence it has moved closer and closer to Turkey, much to Moscow’s chagrin. This has been due to the cultural links between these states. The defense cooperation will ensure the integrity of Azerbaijan’s economy and will ensure their security against Russia. Although Azerbaijan hasn’t come into direct conflict with Russia as Georgia has, it still remains threatened. Moves away from Russia by former Soviet states such as in the Georgian or Ukrainian case have been met with aggression from Russia. This necessitates the need for Azerbaijan to ensure its security through an external backer which works for Turkey since it wants to increase its own influence in the region. The main security concern for Azerbaijan comes from Armenia. Conflicts in the 1990s and recent border clashes still are fresh wounds in Azerbaijan. Having a defense relationship with a regional power like Turkey will act as a deterrent for Azerbaijan. This deterrent is particularly in regards to Armenia’s relationship with Russia that involves large amounts of Russian troops being stationed in Armenia.
Therefore similarly to the Georgian case, Azerbaijan and Turkey both want to keep the Russians out to ensure security and influence in the Caucasus respectively. Ever since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has sought to retain influence in the former Soviet republics. This has been done through attempts at forging economic ties and alliances. This has also been done through shows of force and aggression. Being that this has been the Russian modus operandi since the end of the Soviet Union, this behavior has set the stage for this Caucasian Cold War. Russia has been linked to both Georgia and Azerbaijan since Soviet times. As time has passed, like other former Soviet states, Georgia and Azerbaijan have moved further and further away. Russia went to war with Georgia in 2008 in part due to Georgian movement away from Russia which has created a permanent strain upon their relationship. In 2014 this occurred in Ukraine as well. Both of these cases still have unresolved grievances though the guns have fallen silent in Georgia and not Ukraine. Being that Russia is willing to use force to get what it wants, it only makes sense for former Soviet states to seek external security guarantees.
Russia has been seeking to be the preeminent power in the Caucasus region since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. This has been done through courting Georgia and Azerbaijan economically, but to no avail. It has also been done militarily through the 2008 war with Georgia and the military ties with Azerbaijan’s rival Armenia. Also since the end of the Soviet Union, Turkey has been seeking to increase its influence in the Caucasus. Up until now this influence was restricted to economic and some cultural links. However since Turkey now has a defense agreement with Georgia and Azerbaijan, the wheels are in motion for a Caucasian Cold War. Only time will tell how Russia reacts to the growing Turkish influence in the region. At a minimum this Caucasian Cold War will pit Russia against Turkey through these states, despite their Turkish leaning, but Russia has shown recently that it is willing to use force to retain influence in its former Soviet territories.
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TURkMENISTAN A bRAND IN THE MAkINg? TurkMenIsTan Can be labeleD as the most traditional society in the Caspian area. As a country, somewhere between historical tribalism and current authoritarianism, Turkmenistan has yet to establish a clear image of itself beyond state borders.
petra posega MD Editor Petra Posega is a Master`s degree student at the University for Criminal justice and Security in Ljubljana with a Bachelor`s degree in Political Science- Defense studies.
With the power change in 2007, following the death of the former presidentfor-life Niyazov, many political analysts claim Turkmenistan entered a new era of alternated and to some extent softened internal politics, accompanied with the process of establishing the country`s image on the international stage, as a reassuring sign of the country`s willingness to open up to the world. Turkmenistan is also one of the most homogenous countries of Central Asia and is fiercely proud of its traditions and culture. Turkmen people are well known for their generosity and hospitality, as witnessed by the growing number of tourists in the country. Besides the many historical and cultural sights the country can offer, some even protected as UNESCO world heritage sites, along with the famous authentic horse breed AkhaliTeke and world renowned rugs, one of the well-known ones is definitely the so called Door to hell, a burning natural gas field in the middle of the Karakum desert, burning continuously after being lit by the Soviet petroleum engineers back in 1971.
More vivid tourism activity in the future would arguably benefit the soft power of the country, but for now remains only one possible future outcome. Many prospective tourists are namely deterred by the very strict visa regime. This seems to be perpetually more and more understood by the Turkmenistan regime that is looking for ways to diversify and strengthen the soft power tools of the country. After being somewhat isolated for a long period of time, this goal seems a bit distant for now, but there are signs of setting the course for different trends in the future. For example, with a new megaproject named “Avaza National Touristic Zone”, which started back in 2009, country wishes to establish a chain of hotels, entertainment structure and casinos to transform the area by the Caspian Sea to Turkmenistan Las Vegas in the next decade.
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First important international event was held there last year, when 12th of August was marked as “The day of the Caspian Sea” and the ceremony was attended by the diplomatic delegations of Caspian littoral countries and representatives from Asia Development Bank, World Bank, UNDP, OSCE and German Society for International Cooperation. Accompanied conferences on the ecological issues of the Caspian Sea were also held. Besides tourism attractions and renowned hospitality of local people, Turkmenistan has various other means to help boost the soft power country has in international community, which is for now still to a large extent power in the making. One of them is certainly expanding and enlarging the prospects for (still very careful and monitored) cooperation with international scientific community on various topics, but most prolifically on the cultural identity of peoples, dialogue of civilizations and preserving the national heritage
Most of the international scholarly mingling is still being held inside the Turkmenistan state borders, for example, in 2015 only we can list almost 30 different international exhibitions and conferences on vastly different array of topics, from sports, trade, tourism, art to gas and oil. This can be identified as the first step towards a broader and more prolific international engagement. Turkmenistan is also very proud of its neutral foreign policy and is highlighting their direction of positive neutrality in international relations as many times as possible. The regime proclaimed the year 2015 as the Year of Peace and Neutrality and President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov was promoting this brand in a series of official visits to Austria, Italia and Slovenia, in addition to exploring possibilities for energy cooperation with the selected countries. One of the most fruitful cooperations and arguably an additional display of attention the soft power tactics have in the country`s establishment is the relationship with Germany.
Bilateral cultural links include Turkmen- German Forum and the Turkmen- German Cultural Institute, founded for attaining the goal of closer ties between the countries` people. The latter is based in Cologne, Germany, with a special endeavor of promoting Turkmen culture and cultural heritage in Germany and concentrating on creating and enhancing ties between Turkmen and German artists, poets, sportsmen and students by organizing events, festivals and exhibitions. Similar events were held this year in May in Zagreb, Croatia and in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan titled “Days of the Turkmenistan Culture”, presenting work from various Turkmenistan artists, poets, singers and musicians. In addition to substantial cultural exchange there were also events, focusing on the economics. One was the so called “The Day of Turkmenistan Economy in France”, held last year in Paris and an economic forum in Ashgabat, titled “The Day of the German Economy in Turkmenistan”, attended by some 350 people, including representatives from around 90 German companies. Germany is arguably the biggest European presence in Turkmenistan with businesses in oil and textile industry, healthcare, communication, transportation and agriculture. With the current (ongoing) desire of the EU to diversify its energy supply chain, the significance of bond between Germany, as one of the leading countries of the EU, and Turkmenistan is even more important. If Turkmenistan is a country somewhere between tribalism and authoritarianism, then its energy policy is somewhere in between soft and hard power tactics. Traditionally, the buyer of the Turkmen gas was Russia, which left the country with little maneuvering space.
HARD POWER IN ANY SENSE Of THE WORD, bOTH ECONOMIC AND ESPECIALLY MILITARY, IS NOT A vIAbLE OPTION fOR TURkMENISTAN After a dispute with Gazprom on the prices and quantity of the purchased Turkmen gas, which reached its high in an explosion on the common pipeline infrastructure in 2009 that the Turkmen authority labeled as a deliberate act of technical sabotage, Turkmenistan had to reduce its gas production and distribution, causing a big hole in the country`s budget. Consequently, Turkmenistan started looking east and west to diversify its options, making China the number 1 supplier of its gas and vocally lobbying for the TransCaspian Pipeline, also supported by Azerbaijan, which is very intriguing for European markets. Here, we enter another important loop for Turkmenistan; the not yet agreed upon border limitation on the energy-rich Caspian Sea. The clearly marked borders between the five littoral states would immensely strengthen the negotiating position of the country when closing and proposing new gas deals to potential buyers, be it Iran, China or the EU. Therefore, we can mark the latest alleged agreement on the maritime border between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan as a great success for both. WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT
TURkMENISTAN IS vERY PROUD Of ITS NEUTRAL fOREIgN POLICY AND IS HIgHLIgHTINg THEIR DIRECTION Of POSITIvE NEUTRALITY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AS MANY TIMES AS POSSIbLE
Relationship with Kazakhstan can be described as the warmest of all the Caspian states with countries having good railroad and highway infrastructural connectivity. Arguably, the toughest issue with demarcating the border has been between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and this issue has pitted the countries against each- other since the 1990s. It reached a very hostile stage in 2001, when the rhetoric on both sides implied gestures aiming at military threats and the leadership of both countries publicly accusing each other of illegal exploration, development and/or operation on the disputed oil fields, in addition to violation of territorial waters with military and non- military vessels. Situation worsened with Baku purchasing two American military boats, which was viewed as a provocation on the Turkmen side and ignited the arms race between the countries, the only significant time Turkmenistan applied somewhat hard power tactics since becoming independent.
Luckily, in 2003 and 2004 the situation shifted towards efforts for the diplomatic solution, but the countries have yet to find a satisfactory long-term answer to these pending issues, which is also of great importance for the feasibility of the Trans- Caspian Pipeline. Armed conflict seems unlikely though, especially (but not exclusively) because of the Turkmenistan devotion to its policy of positive neutrality. So hard power in any sense of the word, both economic and especially military, is not a viable option for Turkmenistan. After years of isolation, the new president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is making great efforts to increase the ties Turkmenistan has with the outside world. Mainly, we have to mention the relationship and regional cooperation with Central Asian states, Russia and many high level commercial ties and political visits to China. Additionally important are financial investments from Iran and Saudi Arabia, but Turkmenistan has to carefully balance out the potential islamization spill-over effect within the country`s (preferred secular) borders. Also very crucial are the ties with neighboring Afghanistan, where Turkmenistan is helping with the reconstruction process, investing in schools, hospitals and other vital infrastructure projects, providing electricity and issuing grants for Afghan students to study on Turkmenistan university programs. Turkmenistan also, although staying loyal to its neutral status, enhanced its activities inside the Commonwealth of Independent States, cooperation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an observer member and within NATO infrastructure as a Partnershipfor- Peace country.
Arguably then, with the new leadership, Turkmenistan is reforming its relationship with the broader international community and trying to establish a specific kind of brand for the country and its internationallyrecognized image. With enhanced relationship with various countries, Turkmenistan is hoping to enhance its soft power capabilities, which could result in more prolific FDIs to important infrastructure and technological projects and the reinforcing of the negotiating power when it comes to pipeline diplomacy for country`s rich energy resources. We have yet to witness the success and outreach of the changes in Turkmenistan and whether or not they represent a successful tactic for deviating away from the isolationistic status the country was confined in for a significant amount of time.
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Football, money and politics Several dayS before the fIfa’S presidential elections, one of the biggest corruption scandals in the history of the organization has burst out. At the request of US authorities seven football officials allegedly involved in moneylaundering and bribery have been arrested by Swiss police. Nevertheless, Joseph Blatter, the 79-years old head of the wallowing in corruption Football Empire has been reelected. The Russian president Vladimir Putin was the only head of state to congratulate Blatter on winning his fifth term as FIFA head publicly. When the US filed charges against the FIFA’s functionaries for signing over $150 million worth of illegal contracts, Putin claimed that this was “clearly an attempt to block the reelection of Blatter as president of FIFA”. He also said that Blatter was under pressure of those who want Russia to be banned from hosting the 2018 World Cup.
Nina lavrenteva MD Russia Editor Nina Lavrenteva is finishing her Master studies in “History of international relations and integration processes: cross-border cooperation” at the Institute of Political Studies, the University of Strasbourg
The Russian officials are sure – the US uses just an opportunity to “extend their jurisdiction to other states”. Why does Putin back Blatter? There are many reasons for their friendship. Sepp Blatter became an ideal “business partner” for Putin, who was ready to get the right to host the World Cup at any price. Blatter was the first to organize the championships in Asia and Africa and first to turn the noble idea of promoting football worldwide into a well-run money-laundering scheme. The International Federation of Association Football most of the time works with its partners inside the country hosting the World Cup. The government of the country may ignore or even change some of the laws for instance those concerning construction of sport facilities or ensuring security. Having exceeded his authority while serving as Prime Minister, Putin signed the Federal Law “On the preparation and holding of the FIFA 2018 World Cup in the Russian Federation and Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation”. The law gives a lot of financial and commercial guarantees to the FIFA’s partner companies and organizations. Exemptions from paying taxes and customs duties, possibility to conduct banking transactions and convert currencies without any restrictions, “protection of commercial rights”, obligation to provide an insurance coverage and compensations to FIFA or any of its partners in case of economic losses is not a complete list of preferences Russia granted to the organization. FIFA thus got enormous business opportunities in the country.
As the FBI’s investigation continues, Russia and Qatar could lose the right to host the World Cup, if bribery is found in the bidding process. Though Russian authorities claim that the investigation will not prevent the country from the preparations for the 2018 championship, Putin’s reaction displayed his fears. The World Cup means a lot to him and loosing it could become another failure on the international scene. Football has long turned into something more than just a sport. It is now a real instrument of soft power and yet another sticking point between Russia and the West. Confronting it once again, the President shows to the world and especially to his people that a strong leader can defend interests of the country, even if they are useless for the country itself.
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