The Caspian Project .06

Page 1


www.moderndiplomacy.eu


CONTENTS

06

MEHRIBAN ARIF QIZI ALIYEVA THE VERSED LADY OF AZERBAIJAN PUTIN-MONGERING SONS OF ORTHODOXY: EU AUSTERITY AND A RUSSIAN-GREEK ORTHODOX ALLIANCE PRIMAKOV: THE MAN WHO CREATED MULTIPOLARITY

THE CASPIAN PROJECT A WEEKLY EDITION FROM THE MODERN DIPLOMACY

www.moderndiplomacy.eu Caspian@moderndiplomacy.eu

PROJECT TEAM DiMiTRis GiAnnAkOPOulOs DR. MATThEw CROssTOn PETRA POsEGA TEJA PAlkO luísA MOnTEiRO ninA lAvREnTEvA GAbRiElA PAsChOlATi DO AMARAl RAkEsh kRishnAn siMhA bRiAn huGhEs TAylOR MORsE JEAnETTE JJ hARPER DiAnnE A. vAlDEz



The verSeD laDy Of azerbaiJan Mehriban arif qizi aliyeva

We Are All FAMiliAr WiTh The SAying, behind every successful man there is a woman. When it comes to Mehriban Arif qizi Aliyeva, first lady of Azerbaijan, we could paraphrase that into: Beside every successful man, there is an equally successful woman.

MD STAFF

First lady was never one to bathe in the reflected glory of her husband, Ilham Aliyev. She has earned a degree from the 1st Moscow State Medical Institute and has at first pursued her career at the Eye Disease Scientific Research Institute in Moscow for some years. In 1995 came the turning point, when she recognized her calling that took her away from practicing medicine and into the fields of charity and politics. “Friends of Azerbaijani Culture” Charitable Foundation was established by her initiative and that set her strongly on the humanitarian course. She is running the foundation to this day. After the death of Heydar Aliyev, her fatherin-law, Aliyeva also established the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, which, at least according to Azerbaijan news article, »builds more schools than Azerbaijan's Ministry of Education, more hospitals than the Ministry of Health, and conducts more cultural events than the Ministry of Culture”.

In addition to the charitable work, holding events and the continuous promotion of Heydar Aliyev`s political ideology, Foundation does work outside state boundaries, too. Most high profile are, among many others, financing renovations at the Louvre Museum, palace of Versailles and Strasbourg Cathedral. But that is only the tip of the iceberg of her impressive career. She has also founded the “Azerbaijan Heritage” magazine, which presides over promoting the Azerbaijan culture and is published in three languages, Azerbaijani, English and Russian. She was awarded high honour for her continuous efforts in Azerbaijan culture promotion, especially in the fields of folk literature and music, when she was given the title UNESCO`s Goodwill Ambassador in 2004.

WWW.MODernDiPlOMaCy.eU The CaSPian PrOJeCT


She iS even COnSiDereD aS a highly likely SUCCeSSOr Of her hUSbanD aS The PreSiDenT Of azerbaiJan, if a ThirD COnSeCUTive TerM WOUlD PrOve TO be TOO COnTrOverSial fOr ilhaM aliyev

Additionally, she was the recipient of countless other international honours and prizes for her charitable work, including the ISESCO`s (Islamic Educational, Scientific and Cultural education) title of Goodwill Ambassador, award from the World Health Organization for exceptional services, international award “Golden Heart” for extensive charity activities, the “Golden Mozart” award from UNESCO, the “Star of the Commonwealth Award” for activities in the humanitarian area and “Olympic Excellence” Special honorary Prize for the promotion of Olympic values. At this year`s first ever European Games, held in Baku, Aliyeva commenced with a welcome speech at the grand opening of the Games. She was also awarded the Grand Commander’s Cross of the Order of Merit of the Polish Republic Sept. 14, 2009, which she received for her contribution to development of friendly ties between Azerbaijan and Poland; the ''Ruby Cross'' order of ''Philanthropists of the Century'' from International Charity Foundation of Russia; Order of Legion of Honour by French President's order; the award for “Service to Turkic world” established by the Turkic World musician and writers Union; conferred on the order "Hilal-e Pakistan" of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan; conferred on a high state award of the Serbian Republic – the Sreten Order – for her special services before Serbia in public, cultural and humanitarian fieldand an honorary prize of the Turkish-German Friendship Federation for the contributions made to dialogue between civilizations, as well as for the services to promotion of the Turkic world in Germany and development of Azerbaijan-Germany relations.


She has also begun her career in politics in 2005, when she was elected to the National Assembly with 94 % vote under the flag of New Azerbaijan Party and has been a deputy chairperson since 2013. According to some western media, she is even considered as a highly likely successor of her husband as the president of Azerbaijan, if a third consecutive term would prove to be too controversial for Ilham Aliyev. Despite shade, thrown at her in the light of leaked diplomatic cables, revealing that many of her western counterparts feel like she is not properly informed or educated on political issues and does not even attend the parliament sessions, she has become a rolemodel for women in her own country and beyond over the years.

In Muslim societies, the way a public female figure presents herself, her level of success, the way she dresses, wears her hair or puts on make- up is always about something more than just general appearance. Aliyeva`s impeccable fashion sense, her impressive public career as a highly educated humanitarian with a PhD in Philosophy, a charity worker, a Goodwill Ambassador and now a politician, many in the western media speculate could be the next president of Azerbaijan, could therefore as well become the first Muslim female President in the future. Due to her successful career and a strong public persona, it is of little wonder that she has been sometimes referred to as the Hillary Clinton of Azerbaijan.

WWW.MODernDiPlOMaCy.eU The CaSPian PrOJeCT



PUTIN-MONgERINg

If you spenD soMe tIMe lIstenIng to reputable news shows all across the West you will start to notice several recurring ‘interpretations’ that explain all things Russian and Vladimir Putin.

Dr. Matthew Crosston Senior Editor Matthew Crosston is Professor of Political Science, Director of the International Security and Intelligence Studies Program, and the Miller Chair at Bellevue University

Rather than being enlightening about this complex country and perhaps even more complex leader, a series of increasingly incredulous ‘pop-psychology-analyses’ emerge instead. What follows are just five of the most commonly touted, with subsequent breakdowns for those who wish to read more accurate alternative considerations: 1.putin fantasizes about returning to the ‘glorious soviet’ past. ukraine is just the first step. Putin has made many comments and started many symbolic initiatives over the last decade that in some ways have reclaimed the accomplishments and history of the Soviet Union. What most in the West miss about this is the internal perception in Russia that the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 was not just a historical and political transition to a new stage or new evolution for the state as a whole.

Since the dissolution took place within the context of the Cold War and the ideological ‘war’ that was capitalism versus communism, with communism losing, most of the world felt the dissolution was also an ERASING of history. As in, nothing that took place from 1918 to 1991 was worth remembering, commemorating, or observing. Many of the leaders in the initial Yeltsin years at least partially supported this, if not directly then by simple omission. In short, the ways in which Putin has ‘reclaimed’ the partially erased Soviet history is his denial of the Western demand that losing the Cold War means nearly 75 years of history no longer counts for Russia, unless it is to emphasize negative events and incidents done by the Soviet Union. That concept is rejected by Putin, which he considers a sort of emotional Treaty of Versailles put upon Russia unfairly by the West. But there is nothing about Ukraine that connects to this reclamation of history.

WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT


PUTIN fEELS AbSOLUTELY CERTAIN THAT HIS ACTIONS IN UkRAINE ARE A PERfECT MIRROR TO HOW THE UNITED STATES HAS CONDUCTED ITS bUSINESS IN OTHER AREAS, LIkE IRAq, AfgHANISTAN, AND LIbYA, JUST TO NAME A fEW The concept is actually rather absurd: if the Russian Federation truly wanted to ‘reinstitute’ the Soviet Union in full there are few competent strategic plans that get there by first taking over Eastern Ukraine and causing that country to disintegrate into chaos. 2.putin is obsessed with getting attention from the united states. this is just his way of acting out. I like to call this the ‘infantilist theory’ of Russian politics here in the United States. It is littered with the breathless condemnations of so-called experts who have spent little time actually in Russia, have questionable language skills when it comes to Russian, and most certainly have never spent significant time with Putin or anyone within his close circle. Despite these rather daunting limitations, these experts do not hesitate to appear on numerous radio and television talk shows and write countless newspaper and magazine op-ed pieces, giving a detailed and intimate psychological profile of the Russian leader that basically amounts to characterizing the Russian president as a petulant child who is hopelessly needy and demands that the United States recognize him as an ‘unequal equal partner.’

What most in this camp fail to see is that the position of Russia in Ukraine has been largely based on a strategic plan that IGNORES the relevance or power of the United States. If the so-called ‘Ukraine initiative’ was about Russia getting attention from the United States, then Russia seems to be doing an outstanding job of misdirection, feigning total ambivalence on statements, sanctions, and initiatives coming out of Washington DC. 3.putin demands the rest of the world accords russia ‘superpower’ status. ukraine is his reminder to the rest of the world. This leans a bit on the logic of the first rumor, in that, how exactly does any initiative in Ukraine signal superpower-status to anyone anywhere? By now even the most hardened Russian critics in the West have admitted that Ukraine basically squandered two decades of political, economic, and geostrategic promise with complete mismanagement and dysfunctional governance. To admit that on the one hand and then try to connect Russian initiatives within Ukraine as a socalled grand plan springboard to being taken more seriously by the global community is inane and lacking in strategic common sense. This is even more ridiculous when one simply looks to other areas of Russian hard power that have monumentally increased under Putin since 2000, whether that be in military restructuring, federal budgetary strengthening, or natural resource development.If Putin was going to lean on something to make the world understand Russia should remain or once again be considered a superpower in the 21st century, it is those areas of real domestic strength that would power the argument. Getting involved with Ukraine after the Maidan revolution has absolutely zero chance of accomplishing that goal. Putin clearly acknowledges this, so it is a mystery why the West won’t as well.


4.putin is violating international law by in- states would like to follow international law, may even prefer to follow it, and for the most terfering with ukrainian affairs. part do follow it. UNTIL, that is, international One of the most successful movie franchises law comes in direct opposition to national inin history, The Pirates of the Caribbean, is ac- terest and foreign policy priorities. At which tually a fantastic teaching tool for this accu- time international law can pretty much be sation. In the very first film, when Elizabeth told to go hang. Now, the part of this that alwas taken aboard the Black Pearl to face the ways gives the United States consternation dreaded Captain Barbosa, she was dismayed (or is it political indigestion?), is when Russia to learn he was not going to follow the so- is adamant that the chief model for this semicalled holy Pirate’s Code. To which, rather be- respectful, semi-dismissive attitude toward musedly, Captain Barbosa explained that the international law is none other than the US. Pirate’s Code was not so much a code as a set If you want to stop a dinner party dead in its of guidelines. And guidelines are to be fol- tracks in Washington, casually mention how lowed pretty much as one sees fit…or sees Putin feels absolutely certain that his actions not to, as the case may be. This is an ab- in Ukraine are a perfect mirror to how the solutely spot-on description of how interna- United States has conducted its business in tional law measures up against actual other areas, like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, just to name a few. strategic foreign policy and global affairs: WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT


Only Putin believes his ‘interference’ in Ukraine is FAR more justified and explainable than American ‘interference’ in those aforementioned countries. In short, international law is a grab-bag of mysterious and contradictory interpretations based on power and priority. Russia simply admits it more readily, and more publicly, than the United States. 5.putin has put hundreds, if not thousands, of intelligence agents into eastern ukraine and they are causing all of the unrest. This last one is disheartening simply because it is an avoidance of political and military reality on the ground in Ukraine and as a result could be influential in the continuing violence and bloodshed. There is no doubt that Russia has an intelligence presence inside of Ukraine. Russia has always had one. So has the United States. The US also has an intelligence presence inside of Russia, some of it with permission, some of it without. But to take this basic principle of intelligence reality all around the world (for example, China has intelligence agents in Taiwan, Japan has agents in China, India has them in Pakistan, and Pakistan in India, and the United States basically has agents everywhere) and distort it so that it is the chief culprit of events spiraling out of control in Eastern Ukraine is irresponsible. Dissembling of this sort removes most of the focus from the Ukrainian authorities who are struggling to regain control across their territory, sometimes wisely, sometimes foolishly, sometimes peacefully, and sometimes violently.

It also eliminates the existence of actual proRussian factions within Ukraine that no longer wish to be part of it. The West is dominated by stories of pro-Russian groups engaging in violence in Ukraine and within a day those pro-Russian factions are magically ‘littered with Russian agents and/or provocateurs,’ ie, there is no legitimate anti-Ukrainian authority movement, there is only Russian intelligence forces manipulating events on the ground to the detriment of Ukrainian territorial integrity. This is overstatement at best, political fabrication at worst, as the West has made it clear it does not want to see any disintegration of Ukraine. What’s not being said is how that position is not so much based on the desire for peace and tranquility as it is based on the fact that any dissolution of Ukraine will undoubtedly end up benefiting Russia. And that has been silently acknowledged as the least optimal outcome to the West. Russia is not perfect. Russia is not blameless. No country is. But when reputable news sources and so-called experts with decades of experience examining Russia all seem to cater to the same storyboard, and that storyboard seems a bit far-fetched if not actually fantastical, then it is time to signal the call for a new generation of leaders and experts who are willing to examine not just from old prejudices but from cold-hearted objective foreign policy reality. In that crucible no one is absolved but no one is also unfairly prejudged. Right now the future of RussianAmerican relations depends on the emergence of these new voices.


The 10 mosT impoRTanT Things you need To know on Caspian sea Region

the caspian daily newsletter Receive your daily roundup of Caspian Region news and analysis from sources around the globe

#CaspianDaily



sOns Of OrthOdOxy EU AUstErity And A rUssiAn-GrEEk OrthOdOx AlliAncE

THe BiTTer figHT that has been raging between the European Union and Greece has now extended for five long months. With the referendum on July 6th it may all be mercifully put to an end.

Brian HugHes Brian Hughes is currently a student in the International Security and Intelligence Studies program at Bellevue University in Omaha, NE, USA.

With strong indications that the public will resoundingly reject another bailout and the crippling austerity that comes with it, Greece will finally be free of the hated ‘institutions’ that, as they repeatedly claimed, paralyzed their economy. However, the path that leads to a once again stable and prosperous economy is likely not to be found quickly. When the vote finally arrives, Greece will most likely revert to the drachma and default, wherein the economy will enter yet another depression. As of now, the EU appears to be washing its hands of Greece. Fascinatingly, Russia may be the only country that has the immense means and political savvy to navigate this break-up to the benefit of Greece and to its own global positioning interests and national security priorities beyond the Caspian. This was never a two-sided fight. Greece and the EU stared down at each other while forgetting that Russia was patiently waiting on the periphery. The EU adamantly stated that austerity would eventually work, while Greece equally weighed in against the ‘indecency’ that such economic measures were forcing on the Greek people.

So much focus has been on rhetoric and horribly complex political posturing inside of the 28-country EU, it quietly missed the fact that Russia could emerge the only real winner, leaving the EU to struggle with the consequences of basically being rejected by a fallen EU member that chose an alternative path. Russia and Western European powers are in the midst of a tumultuous relationship at the moment diplomatically and it’s difficult to argue that Russia isn’t coming away with the upper hand. Vladimir Putin has shrugged off sanctions, recession, and drastic inflation, all while increasing personal popularity and national territory. He likewise out-flanked the morehawkish Western voices in Syria by utilizing Russian soft power, coordinating a chemical weapons disarmament.With a meager 18% debt-to-GDP ratio, Russia has the financial depth and flexibility to do as they please. Lending a helping hand to Greece would be a simple first step to begin prying Greece away from the EU and into a welcoming Russian sphere of influence.

WWW.MOdErndiPlOMAcy.EU thE cAsPiAn PrOJEct


thE EU is GivinG EvEry OPPOrtUnity tO rUssiA tO AdvAncE in thE EcOnOMic vAcUUM thAt Will bE lEft bEhind As dEfAUlt sWEEPs thrOUGh thE MArkEts Of GrEEcE Greece has recently been torn between Russia, an ‘Orthodox brother nation,’ and it’s EU counterparts. The economy was exploding with prosperity before the global recession of 2007-2008 and this newfound wealth was largely facilitated by its close relationship to the EU and inclusion in the Euro currency. Conversely, Greece has historical, cultural, and religious connection with Russia. In addition, tourism and diaspora between the two countries is quite high. Thus, with six years of economic downturn and multiple recessions following the initial depression, Greek positive sentiment toward the EU has plummeted to roughly 25%. Meanwhile, two-thirds of Greeks have a favorable view of Russia, a unique antithesis with much of the EU. Russia’s relationship with the current Greek political hierarchy began on strong footing, as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras attempted to block sanctions against Russia just days into office. After sanctions were imposed with the United States’ urging, Greece reportedly told Russia that they were able to reduce their intensity.

This may be the strongest leverage that Greece can offer Russia: while still being a member of the EU, even without its currency, Greece can use its vote to sway sanctions. While a difficult task for Greece to diametrically oppose the wishes of stronger Western powers, one dissenting vote to new sanctions significantly weakens impending ones. Previously, the EU warned of isolationism if Greece bowed to Russia with respect to sanctions and warned not to challenge the EU position. In the wake of default this threat will prove hollow, while isolation from the EU may drive Greece further to the side of Russia. The Greek government would be walking a dangerous tightrope between Russia and the EU, but with little options for an immediately stable economic future they may gamble. In addition to challenging sanctions, Greece has also fought against the position held by the EU in regard to Russian natural gas. EU members are attempting to move away from reliance on Russian gas and the Gazprom empire. In April, Greece signed on for inclusion in the Turkish Stream gas line project (although that project has yet to begin). Many anticipated that this was a ploy to bluff Europe into accepting easier loan terms, but deciphering what was political brinksmanship and genuine agreements may prove difficult: Russia is going to accept the contract either way. The EU is stuck between offering Greece the demanded debt write down and further bailouts or gambling with the standard line of austerity and possible ‘moral hazard.’ This was certainly a fight the creditors never wanted to face, with the political implications singularly negative and no positive outcomes readily imaginable.


The EU outcome that would have subdued Russian influence would have been to keep the status quo. When it became clear that the Syriza party had no interest in doing so, the EU could only keep pressing Greece until it broke. Unfortunately, the break may certainly occur, but may consequently create a new alliance the EU never anticipated: an Orthodox alliance that renders EU influence in the Adriatic severely compromised. Greece has until July 20th to decide whether to accept bailout funds or simply fall out of the Euro. The latter move will show the rest of the EU that membership is not a strictly one-way road and any prospective members may be hesitant in accepting membership. Highlighting the weakness of European partnerships and rigidity of monetary control would represent a large prize to Russia, always interested in embarrassing Western powers when it has opportunity to do so, given what it considers to be like behavior from the US and EU. Make no mistake: the EU is giving every opportunity to Russia to advance in the economic vacuum that will be left behind as default sweeps through the markets of Greece. For six months it has let the confidence in the Euro, and the EU itself, be shaken through vicious back-and-forth political rhetoric. While the concessions that Greece demanded were far more than the EU felt allowable, Greeks understandably balked at even more austerity. With Russia actively participating in Greece’s alternative plans, the EU needs to be legitimately concerned about watching Russia slowly embrace Greece away from Western Europe and more towards its Orthodox brother and the more East-leaning shift it is trying to create in the Caspian and beyond to China.

If Greece rebounds as a result of Russian influence, it will give pause to other newer and potential EU members facing similarly severe austerity measures. The EU can still salvage this situation, but it will take drastic compromise since Greek voters appear resolved to accept a Euro exit. With severe austerity the question simply becomes, “how can a state effectively govern when it has little decisions over its budget?” Greece seems to be saying it cannot and therefore is seeking alternative answers to this European economic stick. It proclaims to want economic dignity back. And Russia just might be the country holding the dignity carrot.

WWW.MOdErndiPlOMAcy.EU thE cAsPiAn PrOJEct



THE MAN WHO CREATED MULTIPOLARITY On maRch 24, 1999, Yevgeni Maximovich Primakov was heading to the United States for an official visit. Midway over the Atlantic Ocean, the Russian Prime Minister learned the combined forces of NATO had started bombing Serbia, a close ally. Primakov immediately ordered the plane to turn around, and returned to Moscow in a manoeuvre dubbed “Primakov’s Loop”.

Rakesh kRishnan simha Advisory Board Member New Zealand-based journalist and foreign affairs analyst. According to him, he writes on stuff the media distorts, misses or ignores.

Primakov’s decision was in sync with what he had set out to achieve. In 1996, as Foreign Minister he had presented before the Kremlin elites a plan to develop a strategic three-way pivot between Russia, India and China. This doctrine of multipolarity would be an alternative to the US-imposed unipolarity of the post Cold War period. Back then the Kremlin was crawling with pro-western Muscovites. Rotten to the core, many were in the pay of motley American think tanks (read: spy agencies). It was not a time or place to sell an idea as radical as uniting three disparate countries in a strategic embrace. But like most great ideas, Primakov’s was simple. First, Russia must end its subservient foreign policy guided by the US. Secondly, he emphasised the necessity of renewing old ties with India and fostering the newly discovered friendship with China. Primakov argued that a Russia-India-China (RIC) troika in a multipolar world would allow some protection for free minded nations not allied to the West. He said the economic crisis in Russia had presented a rare convergence of conditions in the RIC.

Leonid Fituni, Director of the Moscow-based Centre for Strategic and Global Studies, explains: “China is practically the only state in the contemporary world that enjoys over 3000 years of uninterrupted statehood. It has its own rich traditions of state governance, not identical to those existing in the (West) today, but by no means inferior. Through millennia, China has accumulated unparalleled experience of social and political organisation and development.” Fituni adds: “India, being different in many respects, enjoys a similar wealth of historical experience, often incomprehensible to westerners. The last couple of centuries have been a time of degradation and humiliation for these two great nations. In the eyes of the Chinese and the Indians, this was inextricably linked to the European/ western expansion: colonialism and imperial dominance, including the imposition of a normative and economic servitude that still keeps then trapped in the semi-periphery even after the era colonialism.”

WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT


RUSSIA LEfT THE PATH OUR WESTERN PARTNERS HAD TRIED TO MAkE IT fOLLOW AfTER THE bREAkUP Of THE SOvIET UNION AND EMbARkED ON A TRACk Of ITS OWN Russia found itself in a similar state. It was a time when the former planned economies were "ruthlessly looted by the victorious democracies under the guise of economic reforms or liberalisation. Russian social thinkers and historians noted similarities to the historic period of the destruction and pillage of China and India in the 19th and early 20th centuries”, writes Prof Li Xing writes in The BRICS and Beyond. Primakov – a former journalist, Orientalist and spymaster – predicted an inevitable degradation of the Russian economy, reduction to "third world" country status, and the continued drain of resources (natural, financial, technological and human) to the victorious West in its attempt to postpone the imminent crisis in the (western core) enfeebled by decades of Cold War competition. (This has an uncanny parallel to the drain of India’s resources – black money and high tech talent – to the West.) slow start In 1998, Primakov visited India and pushed the proposal for creating the RIC strategic triangle. The new Russian leadership under Vladimir Putin reversed the Boris Yeltsin era drift in Russia-India ties, signed a major strategic partnership treaty and established the institution of annual summit meetings.

Fourteen years after Russia had abandoned its old ally, Indians heard friendly voices emanating from Moscow. “India is number one,” Putin said, referring to India’s primacy in the subcontinent. To be sure, the troika took a long time to reach a basic agreement. A key reason for RIC not getting early traction is the India-China border dispute, which has spun off an Asian version of the arms race between the two giants. Secondly, in any trilateral partnership, the weakest member – in this case India – acquires prestige and power out of proportion to its actual strength. Beijing – which has traditionally viewed India as weak, divided, slavishly pro-West and above all as a potential strategic rival – clearly did not want to help India achieve that status. Initially, RIC leaders only met on the sidelines of global summits. “Once the format was underway in 2003, broadening it to include Brazil did not present insurmountable challenges,” write Nikolas K. Gvosdev and Christopher Marsh in ‘Russian Foreign Policy: Interests, Vectors, and Sectors.’ (Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill's term – rapidly adopted by financial and emergingmarket analysts around the world – happened to be released at that exact opportune time. O'Neill or not, BRICS would have been a reality, minus that clunky name.) It wasn’t until 2012 – coinciding with India successfully testing long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching China’s eastern seaboard – that RIC talks took off. Finally, the February 2015 meeting in Beijing imparted a fresh momentum, with China endorsing Russia’s move to include India in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).


Wider footprint Large as its scope is, Primakov went beyond RIC. “The Primakov doctrine is designed primarily to dilute America’s strength and influence while increasing Russia’s influence and position in the Middle East and Eurasia,” writes policy analyst Ariel Cohen of the USbased Heritage Foundation in a report titled ‘The Primakov Doctrine: Russia’s Zero-Sum Game with the US’. “Primakov has shown himself to be a master at exploiting anti-American sentiments of the Iranian Shiite establishment, the Arab nationalists, and even the French foreign policy elite.

On visits to Japan and Latin American, Primakov promised Russia's support for their efforts to secure permanent seats on UN Security Council.” But Primakov was not letting American hawks go unchallenged. In a 2006 speech he thundered: “The collapse of the US policies pursued in Iraq delivered a fatal blow on the American doctrine of unilateralism.” “Having captured more and more countries the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation has approached our borders, and this cannot fail to make us uneasy,” Primakov added

WWW.MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU THE CASPIAN PROJECT


fIRST, RUSSIA MUST END ITS SUbSERvIENT fOREIgN POLICY gUIDED bY THE US. SECONDLY, HE EMPHASISED THE NECESSITY Of RENEWINg OLD TIES WITH INDIA AND fOSTERINg In a sideswipe at Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilisations, he said Russia would not acTHE NEWLY DISCOvERED cept the division of the world based on civilfRIENDSHIP WITH CHINA isation-related and religious principles, but would instead pursue its own policies, “cooling hotheads who fail to learn their lessons in Iraq but are all but ready to repeat pernicious combat techniques against unwanted “All the more so NATO extension is accompa- regimes”. In fact, his defining credo was: nied by anti-Russian rhetoric, as well as ag- “Those who do good will be rewarded. Life gressive policies pursued by the US in the gets even with those who do bad.” former Soviet republics. Moscow cannot fail to regard all this as activities bred by the dis- Primakov’s legacy was best summed up by pleasure of certain circles in the West by the current Russian Foreign Minister Sergei fact that restoring its enormous prospective Lavrov: “The moment he took over, the Russpotential, Russia is regaining its status of a ian Foreign Ministry heralded a dramatic turn superpower.” of Russia’s foreign policy. Russia left the path our western partners had tried to make it folnew era in Russian diplomacy low after the breakup of the Soviet Union Another key contribution was Primakov and embarked on a track of its own.” ended the age of Russia’s post-Soviet inno- Pointing to the success of BRICS, which cence. Taking advantage of Moscow’s concil- emerged from the RIC, Lavrov said the line of iatory – and overly trusting nature – the countries eager to join the five-member Americans had hoodwinked Moscow in sev- group “keeps getting longer”. eral theatres, including Iraq, Libya, NATO expansion and the ABM Treaty. “We are too One day when they chronicle the “Decline honest in these matters and such naivety in and Fall of America”, substantial credit would the political arena does not lead to good re- go to the man who came in from the Cold sults,” he said in an interview. “I hope that our War – and changed the map of the New policy changes.” World Order.


The 10 mosT impoRTanT Things you need To know on Caspian sea Region

the caspian daily newsletter Receive your daily roundup of Caspian Region news and analysis from sources around the globe

#CaspianDaily


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.