thE dArk sidE of thE CAspiAn DEspAir AnD DEAth in huMAn-trAfficking stAcEY cottonE hEll’s Conduit trAfficking through thE cAspiAn DAYnA ricE
fighting thE shAdow silk roAd Anti-trAfficking Efforts Across thE cAspiAn JEAnEttE "JJ" hArpEr hiC drAConEs corruption Across thE cAspiAn Dr. MAtthEW crosston CAviAr diplomACy Working thE us-AzErbAiJAn rElAtionship to frEEDoM’s DEtriMEnt EVAn thoMsEn
ContEnts ArCtiC gEopolitiCs futurE conflict bEYonD thE cAspiAn AnDY DEAhn BACk or wrECk to thE futurE ? cAspiAn roADMAp pEtrA posEgA
dAEsh’s nEw CAuCAsiAn provinCE sociAl MEDiA tErrorisM briAn hughEs
13
thE CAspiAn proJECt Bi-wEEkly digitAl Edition Dimitris Giannakopoulos Modern Diplomacy, Editor-in-chief Dr. matthew Crosston The Caspian Project, Director
proJeCt team
www.moderndiplomacy.eu Caspian@moderndiplomacy.eu
petra poseGa teJa palko luisa monteiro nina lavrenteva Gabriela pasCholati Do amaral bruCe aDrianCe GreGory brew staCey Cottone anDy Deahn JareD s. easton laura GarriDo amy hanlon Jeanette "JJ" harper Jonathan hartner brian huGhes paula malott meGan munoz taylor morse Joshua patterson Dayna riCe JessiCa reeD evan thomsen Dianne a. valDez Christopher white
bandits and badlands
t Prof. Dr. Matthew Crosston Senior Editor, Director, The Caspian Project
his issue takes us into the dark corners of the Caspian region, into the shadow hinterlands where rules often do not apply and laws act, at best, like guidelines to be transgressed rather than a code of behavior dutifully followed. While no country or region of the world is immune to criminal activity and underworld gangs, the Caspian countries are unfortunately victim to an unholy nexus of negative factors: the collapse of the Soviet Union allowed a plethora of organized crime networks to flourish; long-term sanctions against Iran nearly begged for the creation of state-sponsored efforts to circumvent rules and laws, thereby institutionalizing a system of illegality across the population in general; the rural areas of Central Asia, where development and prosperity are always last and slowest to emerge, provided ample supplies of ‘human capital’ to fuel the lascivious and insidious desires of lesser men; and finally, emerging capital and natural resource markets throughout the region created de facto ‘piggyback’ routes for organized crime to efficiently and easily propagate its influence far beyond the Caspian.
This edition of the Caspian Project pulls no punches and tackles some fairly disturbing subjects: it is not for readers who are faint of heart. We do this not to paint a starkly negative light over the region. On the contrary, it is the fervent belief of all the contributors within that only the open transparency and greater international awareness of efforts like this can provide the region with the fuel, motivation, and knowledge of how to make new pathways to prevent and suppress such horrible activities from becoming only more and more commonplace. It is no easy fight: there are too many structural, societal, and systemic factors, as you will read, which seem to immensely favor those looking to abuse and subjugate rather than helping those trying to prevent and rescue. But that does not mean the situation is hopeless. Editions like this one make all who care more aware and more knowledgeable, pointing out the mistakes of the past and the flaws of the present, so that moving forward into the future can signal new ideas and new innovations meant to stop evil. The famous Edmund Burke quote – The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing – was a fundamental building point for this issue. I know that every author, editor, and staffer associated with the Caspian Project hopes sincerely that this can be considered in at least a small way as our effort as good people to do something. May it one day produce real hope and real change for all those lost and enslaved in the darkest corners of the Caspian.
Despair anD Death in human-trafficking
the Dark siDe of the caspian
STACEY COTTONE Stacey Cottone, a recent graduate of Bellevue University with a Master’s degree in Cybersecurity and Bachelor’s degree in International Security and Intelligence Studies, just completed an internship with the United States Department of State in Washington, DC.
t
he Caspian region presents individuals with an array of options for those seeking better opportunities. Unfortunately nefarious individuals are well aware of people’s hopes and dreams of a better, safer life and devastatingly use this knowledge to their advantage. Individuals who fall victim to these criminals typically have been forced to leave their homes due to fighting or instability in their home region. A common scenario is when, unknowingly, the victim agrees to the perpetrator’s terms for safe transport and new jobs in a different country. Once they have given their trust, as well as their identification documents of course, the criminal exploits them in such a manner that it is nearly impossible for the person(s) to leave or escape their tragic new circumstances. Welcome to the new insidious form of de facto 21st century industrial slavery.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
The Caspian region has well-documented human-trafficking routes. What makes this region popular for trafficking specifically is the Caspian Sea. Smugglers who are able to transport their human chattel across the sea save themselves time and money to reach their destination. Bypassing land routes is beneficial as they avoid many checkpoints that are intent on finding drug-traffickers and increasingly seeking to expose humantraffickers as well.
What makes this region popular for trafficking specifically is the caspian sea. smugglers Who are able to transport their human chattel across the sea save themselves time anD money to reach their Destination Over the last decade, a few of the littoral states have created several initiatives primarily centered on combatting drug-trafficking and organized crime that is pervasive throughout their countries. Turkmenistan appears to be the main driving force behind several of these initiatives. Actions taken, however, as a result of the initiatives to curtail drug and human-trafficking have not yet been sufficient enough to prevent victims from living through a horrifying ordeal. Aside from transporting victims across the sea there are several other factors that create the prevalence of human-trafficking in the Caspian region. One of the main drivers is the abundance of energy resources in the region, which results in an increased need for laborers.
Many individuals seeking work travel to the region and while some individuals are fortunate and are able to obtain legitimate work, many others become trapped in a system of de facto forced labor, debt bondage, restriction of movement, nonpayment of wages, physical abuse, and sexual exploitation. The U.S. State Department monitors and publishes a yearly report that depicts trends in trafficking patterns throughout the world as well as the severity of human trafficking for each country. The countries that surround the Caspian region and beyond, unfortunately, factor heavily in the report. Men, women and children obtained in Central Asia, for example, are often trafficked to Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE); men, women and children from Uzbekistan are often first trafficked to Kazakhstan; within Kazakhstan they are internally trafficked for forced prostitution as well as forced labor; men, women and children from Azerbaijan are trafficked not only within Azerbaijan but also trafficked to Turkey and the UAE for the sexual exploitation of women and children; men and boys may also be trafficked from there to Russia; Uzbek men and women are trafficked to Iran, Pakistan, and the UAE; Iran subjects Iranian women and children, both girls and boys, into sex trafficking in Iran, Europe and the UAE, as well as being sexually exploited in the Iraqi, Kurdistan and Gulf regions; traffickers force Afghanistan migrants into slave labor; Afghan boys are subjected to sexual abuse by their employers as well as being harassed or blackmailed by Iranian security services. The victims are a United Nations of victimology, coming from Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, other Eastern European countries, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. Iran and Russia are both Tier 3 offenders, the ranking given to the worst perpetrators in the world per the U.S. State Department.
Both countries do not comply with the minimum standards to eliminate trafficking, protect trafficking victims, nor have they made significant attempts to do so. Russia has a significant amount of foreign labor workers in-country that is estimated between 5 and 12 million persons. Labor trafficking is the predominate problem in Russia to the extent that there have been criminal cases in which Russian officials were suspected of assisting human traffickers openly. Allegedly these officials have protected the traffickers and have even returned trafficking victims to the criminals, in a weird example of an international Dred Scott decision, while other officials were accused of accepting bribes from employers in order to prevent being fined for their undocumented workers.
When authorities do get involved, suspected victims have often been charged with living illegally in Russia and were deported without any assistance or investigation to determine if they were in fact trafficking victims. Iranian government officials have reportedly been involved in the ever-growing sex trafficking of women and girls. Officials overseeing shelters for runaway girls in Iran have been accused of forcing these girls, who were seeking safety and protection, into prostitution rings. Trafficking victims in Iran have continued to be punished for the unlawful acts they are forced to commit against their will. Female victims of trafficking and sexual exploitation rarely receive justice due to the fact that a woman’s testimony in Iranian courts is weighted to only half of what a man’s testimony is.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
Women are also liable to be prosecuted for adultery even if they were victims of sexual abuse, forced prostitution, or sex trafficking. Their victimization is punished by the courts, which then condemn them to death. The nuclear deal with Iran certainly has the potential to create an escalation of human trafficking in the Caspian region. It would once again allow Iran to export its natural resources. More laborers will be needed in the region to produce, refine and transport the crude oil and natural gas, in addition to building the newly required pipelines. Individuals not willing to pay decent wages to workers will rely on trafficked victims subjected to forced labor. The incidents of sextrafficking and forced prostitution in Iran are also likely to increase as more people will be conducting business in Iran.
Men seeking these victims are not discouraged from their desires but rather catered to. Their craven demand only increases the need to locate more victims to sexually exploit. Tragically the majority of the world continues to overlook the evil of human-trafficking in the Caspian region. The victims become merely an afterthought of doing business there. Their words and stories of horrific abuse and exploitation fall on deaf ears. Disturbingly, the world has failed to recognize that sexual exploitation and modern labor slavery seems to evolve lock-step with developing regions, especially areas with ample supplies of natural resources to be extracted, refined, and distributed. This means the Caspian region might only become more of a hub for modern slavery and human-trafficking as the economic consequences emerge from the new Iranian nuclear accord. If the global community doesn’t make it clear that emerging prosperity shouldn’t be built upon the back of exploited men, women, and children, then it will have no one to blame but itself for the dark side of the Caspian descending further into shadow.
Trafficking Through The caspian
hell’s conduiT DAYNA RICE Dayna Rice is a recent graduate of the International Security and Intelligence Studies Program at Bellevue University in Omaha, NE, USA. She is also a veteran of the United States Army.
T
ajikistan unfortunately has all of the pre-conditions that make trafficking in persons there a perfect opportunity for the growing trade of human commodities. The state has poor governance, is rife with corruption, unemployment is high, and a large portion of the population is uneducated. This combination of variables makes ‘acquiring’ human commodities very easy for the traffickers. The fact that the Caspian region, a major conduit and facilitator of such underworld activities, sits right on Tajikistan’s doorstep gives traffickers an easy route out of Central Asia and on to more lucrative and manipulative markets. Madina, like thousands of other Tajik women who have been trafficked, had fallen on hard times. She was a single mother working in her local market and barely scraping by. Madina was enticed into the lurid world of the sex trade when a stranger approached her and promised that he would take her abroad and she would be able to earn large sums of money in just a few months and return home to her children. Of course, this was a lie.
The man, who was a trafficker, took Madina to Turkey (through the Caspian region first, as most trafficked victims from Central Asia are) where he enslaved her at a brothel for over a year. Women, however, usually do not stay in their original destination country. Madina saw people transported on to Russia and Kazakhstan while others went to the Middle East, Iran, and even China.
Traffickers can use cell phones To make and Take bids on Their human commodiTies, While buyers are able To make Their purchase - documenTaTion and Travel included no less To anyWhere in The World Economic changes account for sexual exploitation as the number one trafficking concern in Tajikistan. The financial crisis of 2008 played an extraordinarily large role in the rise of trafficking along with the lack of border controls and complicity of the local governmental agents. As Louise Shelley states, “one-third of Tajik households now have a family member working outside of their country, most often in [the Caspian littoral states of ] Russia or Kazakhstan.” (Shelley 2010) They are living in harsh conditions with many people housed in a single room. The conditions are filthy, exposing workers to dangerous jobs with little protection from the heat or cold, and employers that show little to no regard for the workers’ safety. An often unseen aspect to Caspian trafficking is how it leaves the families left back in Tajikistan vulnerable to internal trafficking. These children left behind in Tajikistan, now devoid of their matriarchal authority figure, are often forced to work in the cotton fields within Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Even though officially adopted legislation is in place that prohibits the use of child and forced labor, especially in rural areas, many of the schools remain closed during picking season and the children are forced to work. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) remains the top agency in Tajikistan to monitor and fight the practice of trafficking in persons. For the years of 2010 and 2011, the IOM produced lengthy reports explaining their findings on the cotton harvests. Working together with local government and law enforcement, the IOM was able to determine that while there was a drop in the number of students participating in the harvest, trafficking in child labor was still high. There is a pernicious secondary trafficking market through the Caspian region that is also under-researched: children are not only vulnerable to the pressures of forced labor within Tajikistan once an adult figure is stolen away. They themselves are sometimes then consequently trafficked out-of-country as domestic servants.Many of the children will end up in places where children are used in the sex trade as well. Russia and Iran are some of the strongest ‘middle organizers’ of this secondary market, acting as conduits through the Caspian and onward to, for example, the Arab Gulf States. Also, because of the massive numbers of adults that are migrant workers, many children find themselves taken by parents to places like Russia and then actually abandoned when their parents find they can no longer support them. Uneducated children who know little to no Russian at all and have no papers to identify who they are or find their parents often end up extremely vulnerable. The transient homes throughout Russia that are set up as temporary places of safety more often serve as de facto recruiting grounds for organized crime groups that utilize trafficking as a major cash resource.
These children become the victims of sexual exploitation, forced labor, forced begging, and even conscripted as child soldiers to conflicts all around the globe. Some children end up in places as far away as Latin America. And all of them, almost without exception, start that horrible journey by transiting through the Caspian. The ties that human traffickers have to organized crime offer them ways to forge documents and utilize illicit trade routes. It should be no surprise that the prosperous natural resource routes of the Caspian often double as illicit trade routes for ‘Dark Net’ activities. Advertising of ‘human inventory’ is now cheap, secret, and easily accessible because of modern technology. Consumers of trafficked persons are able to shop for their perfect victims with just the
click of a button on their computer, tablet, or cell phone. Traffickers can use cell phones to make and take bids on their human commodities, while buyers are able to make their purchase - documentation and travel included no less - to anywhere in the world. Unfortunately, the decreased costs of transportation in the Caspian, as it has become more and more integrated into the global economy, have also made it easier to export these unfortunate souls. Many countries, including Tajikistan, rely solely on the human-trafficking protocols set forth by the United Nations. Cooperation across many United Nations groups, academia, and private institutions are coming together to bring recognition to the problem of human-trafficking.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
unTil These governmenTs Take a serious sTance againsT corrupTion and place a higher value on fundamenTal human righTs and basic sTandards of decency, Trafficking Will conTinue To be a problem for years To come The list of organizations that are participating in the initiatives include the United Nations Global Initiative to Fight Human Trafficking (UN-GIFT), the UNODC, the International Labor Organization (ILO), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), International Organization for Migration (IOM), and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). After rescuing victims of trafficking from their lives of servitude, the most difficult part is to reintegrate them back into their home societies. In Tajikistan, women who have been trafficked across the Caspian face a strong stigma related to the sexual activities they may have been involved in while being trafficked. This makes the reintegration process difficult because the community shuns the women, leaving strong feelings of inadequacy, guilt, and shame.
The IOM has played the largest role in aiding victims of trafficking (VoTs) to reintegrate back into society. Unfortunately, these efforts are small in comparison to the estimated numbers of people that are actually trafficked. The complexity of retrieving victims from across international borders makes rescue near impossible in most cases. Traffickers have become experts at hiding and manipulating the victims into obedient compliance. The governments of the Caspian littoral states still do not take the issue of trafficking seriously enough in my opinion. Until these governments take a serious stance against corruption and place a higher value on fundamental human rights and basic standards of decency, trafficking will continue to be a problem for years to come. The lives of these invisible citizens will be lost in a world of darkness. It is not just a problem for the Caspian. It is a problem for all of the countries adjacent to the Caspian Five as well. Until progress is made the Caspian region will not just be a 21st century channel for a new Silk Road into Central Asia. It will quite literally for some be a conduit to Hell.
The 10 mosT impoRTanT Things you need To know on Caspian sea Region
the caspian daily newsletter Receive your daily roundup of Caspian Region news and analysis from sources around the globe
#CaspianDaily
fighting thE shAdow silk roAd
Anti-trAfficking Efforts Across thE cAspiAn
JEANETTE “JJ” HARPER Jeanette “JJ” Harper is a graduate student in the International Security and Intelligence Studies program at Bellevue University in Omaha, NE, USA.
M
ost conversations about the Caspian countries revolve around the region’s political and economic developments and Central Asia’s new Silk Road initiatives that seek to facilitate regional cooperation in the areas of energy, transportation and trade. Despite all of these commendable advancements, there is a dark side that is rarely explored because many find the topic rather unpalatable. There is an underground and subversive “shadow” Silk Road that has become a source of prosperity for those that would seek to enslave humans – many of them among some of the most vulnerable – for the purpose of exploitation and abuse. Human-trafficking, a type of slavery that involves the transport or trade of human beings for the purpose of labor, affects virtually every country in the world. Despite the fact that slavery was abolished well over a century ago, there are more slaves in the world now than at any other time in history.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
Unfortunately, none of the Caspian Five countries are immune to the proliferation of human-trafficking and corruption within their borders. In fact, the Caspian makes up a very significant part of a human-trafficking network that has, at any given time, ensnared about two and a half million people around the globe.
thE AvErAgE lifE spAn of A victiM of huMAn trAfficking AftEr bEing EnsnArEd is soMEwhErE bEtwEEn thrEE to sEvEn yEArs. in MAny of thEsE cAsEs thE victiM is litErAlly workEd to dEAth Overall, human-trafficking is estimated to be a $32 billion a year industry and shows no signs of slowing down, despite – thanks to the rise in the production of documentaries and the release of blockbuster Hollywood movies like Taken - the growing awareness of the public. The victims of human-trafficking include people of all backgrounds and are trafficked for a variety of purposes. Men are trafficked to be used in hard labor jobs and women and children are trafficked to work in the agriculture, fishing, and textile industries. Men, women, and children are all trafficked into the commercial sex industry and used for prostitution, pornography, or other forms of sexual exploitation. Human beings are smuggled within national or across international borders, work out of both public and private organizations, and are ‘sold’ over and over again across time. While not all human-trafficking victims are acquired in the same way, the common theme among those that are ‘recruited’ is extreme poverty.
When a person is trafficked, the victim is removed from everything that is familiar and finds himself or herself isolated and powerless. They often don’t speak the same language – or understand the culture – of their captors, ‘customers,’ or fellow victims and, in many cases, even travel through multiple countries before they end up at their final destination, making most efforts to track and rescue almost impossible. Once in the custody of their kidnappers – who are often part of a larger, more organized group of criminals – victims are stripped of their documentation, told that they are breaking the country’s laws by being there, and threatened with harm to their loved ones if they try to escape. They are subjected to physical and psychological abuse ranging from degradation to food and sleep deprivation to torture. As a result, the victims often become confused, disoriented, frustrated, and ultimately compliant from sheer despair. The average life span of a victim of human-trafficking after being ensnared is somewhere between three to seven years. In many of these cases the victim is literally worked to death. The proliferation of human-trafficking is fueled by widespread corruption and greed. In some parts of the world the life of a female holds so little value that there is not much opposition to the idea of purchasing them for sexual services across the general population according to several disturbing survey polls. Prostitution is often considered a victimless crime and in many countries there is a perception that it is a woman’s choice to enter the commercial sex trade as their preferred profession. Despite the efforts of governments – including formally the governments of the Caspian Five countries – to regulate and enforce anti-trafficking legislation, local governments and police forces have been known to not only protect sextrafficking rings but to participate in them.
There are also lucrative benefits to countries because of the practice of sex tourism – where travelers vacation to a particular country for the purpose of having sex with an exotic and/or underage male or female. Azerbaijan, known as a ‘destination country’ for women from Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Russia for forced prostitution, is also identified as a transit country for victims of sex and labor-trafficking from Central Asia to the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Iran. According to the U.S. Department of State, Azerbaijan is classified as a TIER 2 country, which means its government does not fully comply with the TVPA’s minimum standards but is making significant efforts to do so. According to the 15th annual Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report, Azerbaijan’s government did increase the number of trafficking investigations and convictions,, enacted a new national action plan, and introduced new legislation to provide reintegration assistance to vulnerable populations.
Kazakhstan, also identified as a TIER 2 country, is to a lesser extent a destination and transit country for sex-trafficking and forced labor. Unlike neighboring countries, most victims of trafficking in Kazakhstan are lured there with promises of legitimate employment. People from the country’s rural villages are attracted to the economic prosperity they perceive in Kazakhstan’s major cities, like Astana and Almaty. Upon arrival, many are deceived and made victims. According to the TIP report, Kazakhstan’s government is committed to combating the problem by improving its anti-trafficking legislation, training law enforcement officials, and investigating and prosecuting suspected police officers that participate in trafficking activities. Kazakhstan has also significantly increased its funding for victim assistance and continues to cooperate with international organizations and NGOs to protect victims and raise awareness of trafficking crimes.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
Turkmenistan, recognized as a TIER 2 Watchlist country, is a ‘source’ country for people subjected to forced labor and sex-trafficking. Most of the Turkmen people that become victims are mainly taken to Turkey and Russia, where they are often forced to work in the cotton and construction industries. Even though Turkmenistan is supposedly ‘making significant efforts’ to comply with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking, its government has not been particularly committed to devoting sufficient resources to implement such plans to bring about compliance. While Turkmenistan has continued to convict traffickers, it does not demonstrate very adequate efforts to identify and protect victims and, in some cases, even punish victims for their ‘crimes.’ Both Russia and Iran, which have been identified as TIER 3 countries, are source, transit, and destination countries. Neither country’s government makes much of an effort to eliminate trafficking.
They do not share information with NGOs, the media, international organizations, and other governments in order to address the extensive trafficking problem found within their borders (and beyond) and neither have a national action plan in place to combat trafficking. While Iran did make a small effort to work with other countries in the region to combat other types of transnational crime, Russia has refused to take major public steps to combat root human-trafficking causes that often originate within its own borders through its extensive organized criminal groups. As seen after the collapse of the USSR, economic systems were completely transformed and many people, especially women, found themselves facing unemployment and poverty. These people flocked to the cities in search of work opportunities, higher wages and a better future. Unfortunately, many found themselves swept up in the sexslavery trade and modern-day indentured servitude. Now that sanctions have been lifted on Iran there are so many new opportunities across the entire Caspian region that will no doubt prove to be irresistible for people in search of a better life. People will thus find themselves looking to leave home to make the voyage to a ‘nearby new world’ where they hope new opportunities that weren’t there a few short months ago can transform their lives. Unfortunately, wherever there is hope there is also an accompanying fear. Wherever there is opportunity there is also exploitation. As hopefuls flood back and forth across the Caspian Five, governmental efforts must not simply continue to formally declare their animosity to trafficking but they must begin to truly fight the predators waiting in the shadows. If they do not, then fighting the Shadow Silk Road will likely remain a losing battle.
Corruption aCross the Caspian
hiC DraCones DR. MATTHEW CROSSTON Senior Editor, Caspian Project Director Matthew Crosston is Professor of Political Science, Director of the International Security and Intelligence Studies Program, and the Miller Chair at Bellevue University
C
orruption is an issue and dilemma for every country in the world. No state is immune. No culture has developed a vaccine. Despite this, the issue of corruption and systemic criminality is arguably more important in regions of the world currently undergoing in one form or another democratic transition and entrance into the global market economy. Their successful consolidation and emergence signals opportunity and prosperity not just for the titular nations in question but for the global community as a whole: the world is indeed a truly interdependent economic amalgamation. As such success or failure does not just elevate or degrade one particular region but carries with it cascade eects that can potentially impact the lives of countless hundreds of millions of people the world over. By utilizing statistical rankings and indexes covering no less than ten categories, a fairly stark picture emerges for the Caspian littoral nations.
What it shows is a region clearly struggling to make progress in fundamental aspects of structural freedom and guarantees, which signal a lack of real opportunity for popular prosperity and stability. Worse, when these general rankings are conceptualized within a single graphic at the end of the article, and compared against a modern consolidated democracy fully integrated into the global economy (Germany), the journey still left for the Caspian Five is seen as both long and rocky. This does not mean it cannot be traversed or the Caspian is doomed to eternal political and economic doldrums. But it does arguably mean the road taken so far is likely not the best path to the greatest future.
Most fasCinating of all is to see how regional ‘brotherhooD’ really Does oCCur, regarDless of Culture, religion, ethniCity, or history Below are the rankings provided from numerous quantitative studies collected and freely published by Transparency International. I have compiled the ones most significant for the purposes of ascertaining corruption and structural criminality for the Caspian Five in specific. The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) ranks 175 countries around the world, giving a very sharp and important estimation of how people within the examined countries themselves consider their own problems and challenges. The average Caspian score is a dismal 138 out of 175. Put another way, the Caspian Five score a ‘25’ on a 100-point scale in terms of a general societal corruption perception.
The region averages only 13% in terms of controlling corruption governmentally, with Turkmenistan standing out in particular by scoring an absolutely abysmal 2% overall. The average Rule of Law percentile score for the Caspian region is a low 25%, with Turkmenistan again somewhat wrecking the curve by scoring only 4%. The very interesting Voice and Accountability percentile rank puts the region as a whole at only 13%. While it is true Turkmenistan continues its tradition of bringing up the rear for Caspian countries, scoring a quite laughable 1% overall, Iran also scored in the single digits, achieving only 7% as a score. Ironically, it was Russia that scored the highest in this category, though it was still a relatively poor 21%. Press freedom is a particularly egregious subject matter for the Caspian littoral states: out of 179 evaluated countries around the world, the region averages only 162nd place. Again, Iran and Turkmenistan are the worst offenders, scoring an amazing 175th and 177th respectively out of 179 countries. But again, with the average score of 162, this means every single country surrounding the Caspian has quite a long way to go before it can consider its access to information and freedom of expression to be even slightly adequate. Finally, the undervalued but crucially important survey of judicial independence gives the Caspian region a less-than-stellar 95th out of 142 ranked countries. This score, however, comes with a mitigating caveat as Turkmenistan simply was not able to be included in the evaluation for lack of verifiable data. This of course allows one to conclude that if Turkmenistan had been able to produce a score it would have inevitably only made the regional index worse.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
In vivid contrast to the statistics above, an exemplar country study is provided below in Germany. Each of the ten categories used to evaluate the Caspian littoral states were similarly used on Germany. While it is arguably unfair to compare the Caspian Five with an advanced and stable Western European country, it is nonetheless important to provide a counter-balance case study to show how it is possible to score at the other end of the spectrum with these indexes. Some of the comparative contrast between the two sides is quite dramatic: Germany has a CPI of 12, with corruption control, voice and accountability, and rule of law percentiles all above 90%. Accordingly, both press freedom and judicial independence rankings are extremely high in Germany. In my opinion this is not explained as a testimony to a longer period of time under democratized rule and free-market capitalism in Germany: after all, it was only the middle of the 20th century when that country was under the thumb of extreme fascism. Rather, it indicates that when a country transparently and systematically commits to holistic structural transformation, then dramatic improvement can occur and concretize. In that way the case study can be an inspiration for the Caspian region, if also a rather demanding and uncompromising one.
Finally, for the sake of clarity and graphical review for the readers, all six countries are presented together across six of the most important structural indexes. When done in this way a decidedly negative tendency can be seen within the comparison: when a high positive ranking is desired, Germany stands alone; when a high negative ranking is possible, the Caspian states all seem to score in lock-step with each other, whereas Germany is far off the mark. Most fascinating of all is to see how regional ‘brotherhood’ really does occur, regardless of culture, religion, ethnicity, or history: across the board all five littoral states score remarkably similarly in the six documented categories. This seems to demand that future analysis and research needs to be done on just how pervasive and pernicious corruption tends to be and that solutions and strategies to combat it really cannot rely on traditional sociological or cultural traits and traditions. This investigation was not conducted to spite or humiliate the Caspian littoral states. Rather it sought to shine an insightful light into the immensity of the problem of corruption across the region, within every state. Ways to fix this issue are likely not forthcoming anytime soon. But that may also be partly explained by an individualistic approach that has prevented the Caspian Five from realizing they are much more likely to be effective by creating strategies that bridge across the region. Just as negative trends tend to breed more negative, so can positive success become a catalyst for future successes across new areas. One can hope this will be the case for the Caspian. Otherwise, the region will remain best designated on corruption maps with the warning Hic Dracones: Here be dragons.
a portrait of anti-progress? the Caspian Corruption table
Key: ConCorr% : Control of Corruption Percentage (out of 100%) Judicial: Assessment of an Independent Judiciary (sample size: 142 nations) CPI: Corruption Perception Index (sample size: 175 nations) Rule of Law: Percentile of Structural Commitment to the Rule of Law (out of 100%) V and A%: Voice and Accountability Percentile (out of 100%) Free Press: Overall Ranking Estimating Freedom of the Press vs. Government Control (sample size: 179 nations)
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
CAviAr diplomACy Working the US-AzerbAijAn relAtionShip to Freedom’S detriment
EVAN THOMSEN Evan Thomsen is a graduate of the International Security and Intelligence Studies Program at Bellevue University in Omaha, NE and is currently a Master’s student at the world-renown Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University in Washington, DC. He has just joined with the Eastern Congo Initiative as Strategic Partnerships Officer.
i
deally located between George Washington University, my office at the Eastern Congo Initiative, and the White House is a $12 million mansion owned by the State Oil-Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR). Depending on your degree of cynicism, this location at 1319 18th St. NW is either expected, ironic, or an affront to an American foreign policy that intends to protect and enshrine human rights around the world. For the purpose of this article I will remain agnostic on the perspective and will instead focus on the complex and at times contradictory political and economic engagement policies between the US and Azerbaijan. The complexity can in part be described by the recent history of the building itself. In the 1980s the building housed the offices of Jeane Kirkpatrick, who was the longtime Reagan administration official and US ambassador to the UN. In 1992, the building became the headquarters of the journal of post-Soviet democratization, Demokratizatsiya.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
More recently, the building was occupied by Freedom House, which is a global human rights watchdog that publishes a highly regarded annual report titled Freedom in the World. Azerbaijan is and always has been since the report’s inception in 1995 regarded as ‘not free.’ Rather than view this as a strange and somewhat dark comedy, I am inclined to see the realpolitik so typical of controversy and PR campaigns. Just like all wars are supposedly waged for peace, all market expansion is meant to be waged for economic freedom.
AzerbAijAn iS not only A Semi-impediment to rUSSiAn And irAniAn StrAtegy, bUt An inCreASingly poWerFUl CheSS pieCe in the US ArSenAl The question needed to be asked the White House is why are we giving up prime DC real estate to Azerbaijan while waging economic warfare against OPEC? The question needed to be asked Azerbaijan is what do you offer the US in order to get not only a turned cheek to political and economic repression, but also a certain degree of geographical preferential treatment in terms of real estate? A good place to always start is to follow the money, or in this case, the energy. Azerbaijan, which is situated perfectly between Russia and Iran, could readily serve as a land bridge of military, economic, and political partnerships between ambitious counterpowers to Western hegemony.
Instead, Azerbaijan maintains a healthy political distance from the two regional hegemons and moves its energy resources to the Western world - in direct adherence to US foreign policy. Azerbaijan is not only a semiimpediment to Russian and Iranian strategy, but an increasingly powerful chess piece in the US arsenal. This relationship has developed for decades but soon will be permanently bound through the $35 billion Shah Deniz-2 project and the creation of the Trans-Anatolian and Trans-Adriatic gas pipelines, deals signed in December 2013. The small Caspian state currently supplies 2% of the EU’s energy needs but is now the heart of what is described as the ‘Southern Gas Corridor.’ This aims to challenge Russia’s Nord Stream. Parallel to the geostrategic march, corporate actors are also falling in line as BP leads the Deniz-2 project in direct contestation with Gazprom’s dominance in Nord Stream. While the lion’s share of Azerbaijan’s oil and natural gas wealth is delivered to the EU, there is one non-EU country that receives a substantial portion as well - Israel. Over 30% of Israel’s energy imports come from Azerbaijan. Perhaps this point alone grants Azerbaijan its rather curious political and real estate advantage in Washington DC? In addition to the friends-with-energy-benefits relationship, Azerbaijan holds a few other get-out-of-diplomatic-pressure-free cards. Most notably, Azerbaijan is the only majority Muslim state that is a military ally of the US and NATO in the war on terror. Azerbaijan has both committed troops to anti-terrorism conflicts and provides a strategic entry and exit point for US and NATO troop movements. Furthermore, Azerbaijan exports not only energy but its own flavor of political corruption to Western states. This flavor, which the European Stability Initiative (ESI) has coined ‘Caviar Diplomacy,’ has effectively silenced the Council of Europe.
ESI’s report on this further criticized the Council of Europe by calling its members ‘apologists’ in the face of Azerbaijan’s political repression. What is most surprising, however, is the general coherence between Western actions and words relative to Azerbaijan. One example of this is took place at the signing of Shah Deniz-2. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev did not describe this as some new and wondrous opportunity for increased economic and diplomatic engagement. Instead, he said “the agreements will change the energy map of Europe.” The EU Energy Commissioner Gunther Oettinger affirmed President Aliyev’s assessment by projecting that the corridor could “in the long term supply 20%
of the EU’s gas needs.” British Foreign Secretary William Hague was also in attendance and described the deal as “welcome news.” Prior to the signing ceremony Amnesty International called on Foreign Secretary Hague to raise human rights concerns due to Azerbaijan’s “appalling human rights record.” No such issue was raised. Thus, human rights advocates were simply ignored, left out of the proceedings, and not allowed to be a priority. Another example comes from American diplomatic signaling. The National Security Strategy (NSS), State Department country fact sheets, and the Trafficking in Person’s (TIP) report all turn a relative blind diplomatic eye to these issues.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
over 30% oF iSrAel’S energy importS Come From AzerbAijAn perhApS thiS point Alone grAntS AzerbAijAn itS rAther CUrioUS politiCAl And reAl eStAte AdvAntAge in WAShington dC?
The beginning of the State Department's fact sheet on US-Azerbaijan relations exemplifies both America’s interests and indifference: “The United States is committed to strengthening democracy and the formation of an open market economy in Azerbaijan. It stands to gain benefits from an Azerbaijan that is peaceful, democratic, prosperous, and strategically linked to the United States and U.S. allies in Europe.”(Bold text is my own) Comparative analysis between the language and volume of diplomatic rhetoric also highlights a double-standard: the US “condemns” Iran for imprisoning journalists and activists and often does so through direct statements made by President Obama or Secretary Kerry. The US only “is troubled,’ however, when Azerbaijan violates the same international law – and voices this concern via blog posts on the US embassy’s website in Azerbaijan.
It is here where we have come to the true Dark Side of the Caspian – implicit Western support of oppressive regimes in the name of geostrategic and economic advantage. It is here where Human Rights Watch both identifies the primary cause and misses the mark - “Azerbaijan’s International partners have failed to secure human rights improvements.” Azerbaijan’s human rights have not improved, but one feels compelled to ask if that was ever the West’s goal to begin with? Freedom isn’t free as the American cliche goes. Azerbaijan is undermining the freedom and human rights of its people and avoiding punishment by providing the West with cheaper energy, strategic benefits, and fine caviar. We would all do well, therefore, to don our realist thinking caps and remember that we are a community of political nations, not human rights advocates. Until liberal social policy provides greater economic benefit (or dialectically, presents significant economic loss in its absence) we will continue to see Azerbaijan succeed in political repression via the strategically-induced apathy of the West. Until those changes happen, Azerbaijani energy barons will continue to sit comfortably in their Dupont Circle mansion in the toniest section of the world’s freedom capitol. What a bitter irony indeed.
ARctic Geopolitics ANDY DEAHN Andy Deahn is a 2015 graduate with a Bachelor of Science degree from Bellevue University’s International Security and Intelligence Studies program. He is currently employed as a Field Service Engineer at the Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC) providing aerial surveillance and intelligence analysis for the Department of Defense throughout various worldwide locations. He had previously worked as Special Tactics-Tactical Air Control Party member in the U.S. Air Force supporting Army Special Forces ground teams as a Joint Terminal Attack Controller.
R
ussia is not a littoral nation of just one great body of water in the Caspian. It also has its entire northern expanse along the Arctic Circle. In August 2007, the Russian expedition Arktika 2007 planted a titanium pole with the Russian flag at the bottom of the North Pole seabed in an effort to project Russian power. It was meant to promote its ambitions of development in the Arctic. One third of the Russian nation is located above the Arctic Circle, an area known to have an extensive amount of untapped natural resources—a commodity that the Russian economy is highly dependent upon. In terms of domestic agendas, any nation democratic or not - would pursue interests that provide an economic benefit. This is apparent in the claims made by other countries for the same Arctic areas that Russia believes are its own rightful territory. In Russia's case, natural resources account for an average of 15-20% of their GDP. Therefore if Arctic findings proved successful, the rewards would be highly beneficial for its economy.
In Russia's case, natural resources account for an average of 15-20% of their GDP. Therefore if Arctic findings proved successful, the rewards would be highly beneficial for its economy. Due to recent global developments caused by ecological shifts throughout the world - the melting of the polar ice caps and new advanced technologies - it has become much easier for Russia to satisfy its heightened ambitions as well as allow increased opportunities for development in the North. So what geopolitical impact might this agenda have and exactly what might be hindering these Russian pursuits in the Arctic Region?
RussiA in Response hAs Adopted A new militARy doctRine, one thAt hAs foR the fiRst time estAblished the pRotection of nAtionAl inteRests in the ARctic As one of the countRy's top GeostRAteGic And GeopoliticAl pRioRities Russia is not the only player in the race to secure the North Pole. This vast, desolate, and cold landscape has remained at the center of each Arctic coastal nation's geostrategic and geopolitical initiatives throughout the past few decades. It is only the fact that recently the Arctic has become easier to explore that has driven the increase in Arctic ambitions. As it currently stands, the Arctic Ocean is classified as international waters and is beyond any country's single control. Additionally, the Arctic is governed according to domestic laws and the regulations of each coastal border state, making the region also subjected to bilateral, regional, and international agreements.
For example, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) regulates the Arctic coastal nations’ jurisdiction over resources found within specifically defined or demarcated areas. Known as Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), they grant exclusive rights to defined geographical areas for each nation in question. These EEZs guarantee a legal justification to both explore and exploit natural resources within the zones and establish each country as the sole economic proprietor. The EEZs extend 200 nautical miles from the coast of each nation. Certain stipulations within the law allow legallygranted additional rights, however, if a nation can provide proof that its continental shelf extends beyond the denoted EEZ. Russia has attempted to capitalize on this stipulation. Since 2001 Moscow has attempted to convince the UN that the Lomonosov Ridge, a 1,240 mile long underwater mountain range that spans the length of its polar region, is actually an extension of the Siberian shelf and therefore Russia should be granted exclusive economic rights to it. The formal submission by Moscow to the UN was rejected. However, when Russia planted its flag under the North Pole, it was not just making a prideful statement to the international community: it was also conducting an expedition to gain scientific evidence that the Lomonosov Ridge was in fact directly connected to the Siberian shelf. Russia resubmitted its claim to the UN again in 2015, utilizing the scientific data it collected during the Arktika 2007 expedition. However, this new claim now encompasses an area of over 1.2 million square kilometers and includes not only the Lomonosov Ridge but also the Mendeleev-Alpha Rise and the Chukchi Plateau—areas that both Denmark and Canada also claim as native to their territories.
The addition of these areas was based upon Russian evidence suggesting the territories are natural components of the continental periphery. If the new proposal submitted to the UN is accepted, Russia would be guaranteed the exclusive right to all natural resources and mineral deposits in these underwater territories of the Arctic region. This would also allow for the country to increase its already heavy military developments in the region, a scenario that would escalate tensions among the other littoral Arctic nations and shape the future dynamics of Arctic insecurity, perhaps making it even more dangerous and tense than the issues presently aicting the Caspian Sea nations. There are five littoral nations that encircle the Arctic Ocean. These include: the United States, Russia, Canada,
Norway, and Denmark (Greenland). It should be noted that of these nations Russia is the only Non-NATO member and its ambitions for developing the Arctic Region have outpaced all other regional players. President Vladimir Putin even professed his ambitions to secure the Arctic when he was quoted as saying, "I want to stress the importance of the Northern Sea Route as an international transport artery that will rival traditional trade lanes." Russian pursuits and its aim for Arctic supremacy has created a new security dynamic--as with any resource race—which has sparked a response from the other regional states as they also attempt to increase their military presence in the Arctic to secure and develop the region, preventing Russia from establishing itself as the sole dominant regional power.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
Russia in response has adopted a new military doctrine, one that has for the first time established the protection of national interests in the Arctic as one of the country's top geostrategic and geopolitical priorities. Snap military exercises in the area conducted by Russia have increased in size, scope, and frequency, sparking counter-responses from the militaries of several NATO members. For example, the Arctic Challenge Exercise in May 2015 was Europe's largest military exercise ever conducted in the region. It encompassed ten dierent NATO nations putting on various displays of military muscle in the form of air and naval interoperability maneuvers. The intent of the exercise was to balance the competing spheres of influence in the Arctic and prevent Russia from thinking its right to supremacy there would go unchallenged.
The impact of Russia Arctic supremacy would undoubtedly alter trans-Atlantic shipping routes and commitments, revamp relations between Northern European countries, and evolve relations between China and Russia. This is because as trade routes through the Arctic Ocean become more accessible, oil companies and the nations they belong to will capitalize on this new freedom of movement to both secure and protect the large supply of natural resources emerging from beneath the sea bed. For now, a UN acceptance of Moscow's territorial submission will not be decided until the designated UN commission meets in 2016. Until then, we can expect the military gambit on all sides to continue to escalate in size, scope, and frequency. As each player attempts to establish its dominance in what can be known as the race to the top of the world, it should be disconcerting to the global community that the likelihood of major power discord and/or confrontation might exceed that other geopolitically influential natural resource body of water, the Caspian Sea.
Caspian Roadmap
BaCk oR wReCk to the futuRe ? PETRA POSEGA MD Editor Petra Posega is a Master`s degree student at the University for Criminal justice and Security in Ljubljana with a Bachelor`s degree in Political Science- Defense studies.
R
ecently, I came across an interesting outlined roadmap for Caspian countries, written in 2010 with predictions for 2025. 5 years down and 10 years to go, let us review the scenarios and elaborate on which one is the most eligible for the future of the Caspian Sea region. It is year 2025 and the Caspia Inc. is in formation. We are witnessing a multi-polar global world order with multiple regional power- centers, where economic competition is much more highlighted than the old geopolitical one, sort of reminiscent of the cold-war era. Great powers of the world are cooperative instead of competitive in the world aairs. Caspian Sea region is a globally recognized and significant oil and gas exporting region while Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are enjoying the most FDI- friendly profile and a semidemocratic regime. When it comes to foreign interest in the region, Western and Russian entities are dominating over the others.
Apart from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, geographically and resource- wise Turkmenistan is also a significant part of the Caspian Sea region. Due to the long, dark years of authoritarian regime and isolated style of governing, the country is unable to attract significant FDIs and stretch its outreach of influence. Another troubling sign are the instabilities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, having a spillover eect on other Central Asian border countries. The regime in Turkmenistan is weak and with practically no popular support, therefore susceptible to social uprisings. The opium trade, originating in Afghanistan, is booming.
the CuRRent tRends seem to indiCate a stRongeR Russian tuRn to asia, again suppoRting the theoRy of a multi- polaR woRld oRdeR, gaining in CRediBility, man poweR and Capital Russia is still the biggest power in the region, but showcases no interest in reinstating its former control over Central Asia. The most prolific trading exchange is still between Russia and Kazakhstan, although relations with the EU are also at the highest level. Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey are now all member states of the EU and integrated in the European common market. Apart from Russia, another major force in the region in China, serving as a trading partner for the Central Asian authoritarian regimes, including Turkmenistan. Same goes for Iran which is not actively involved in the region, apart from gas collaborations with Turkmenistan and occasional cooperation with Armenia. The US is less important than the other outlined players.
Trans- Caspian pipeline has not (yet) been constructed. Azerbaijan is mostly capitalizing on the BTC and the new Nabucco pipeline, also pumping Russian gas. Turkmenistan is mostly transiting its gas to China, although Russia and its Gazprom is also still an important partner. Kazakhstan is mostly reliant on the CPC pipeline and the gas pipeline to China. Because the world economic crisis has been combated on every level with much international cooperation in the global community, there are no negative eects and over-politicizing of economic and other aairs. China and India are the main generators of growth. Oil price is stable and the LNG market has expanded to the level that makes gas an increasingly global commodity. Henceforth, geopolitical competition has become obsolete; however, there is still competition at the company level. In this overview, the world in 2025 in my opinion looks like the scenario everyone pacifistic and optimistic at heart dreams of, but not something that is likely ever to happen, let alone in 10- years time. Realistically speaking, the most viable part of the forecast, judging from the current situation in international politics, is the part on the multi- polar world order; we see signs and struggles for it on a daily basis. From the collaborations within the BRICS format, clearly underpinning the American dominance, Asia rising and Latin America moving further away from the dominance of the Northern Hemisphere, and to many other numerous regional outlets gaining momentum and credibility (such as, for example, the ASEAN common market initiative), the world is clearly escaping the reins of the leftovers from the cold war era and the supporting premise of the lone superpower.
I believe that these trends will become even more vibrant and affective in 2025, with: - fully working and prolific BRICS bank and monetary fund, successfully overshadowing the current dominance of IMF and the World Bank; - integrated and economically more efficient South- East Asia (The US`s foreign policy feature “pivot to Asia” will likely become a global redirection); - strong regional hegemons instead of one world superpower and much more vibrant and balanced world politics. I also think that the prediction for Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan sustaining the high momentum of foreign FDIs is likely to be true in 2025 as it is in 2015. Additionally, as the current trends show, countries are very likely to have escaped the Dutch disease due to the establishment of stabilization oil funds. In Azerbaijan, growth of the non- oil sector has surpassed the growth of the oil sector for the first time in 2012, signaling the success of such policies.
Of course, such directions and policies can be subject to change in the future, depending on the governmental preferences, world economic situation and energy trends of the future (green vs. fossil fuels). When it comes to Turkmenistan, the new president Berdimuhamedov seems to be redirecting the country onto a different course. With an enhanced relationship with other Central Asian nations, Russia and many high- level visits to China, the country seems to be opening up. The most significant investments are made from Saudi Arabia and Iran, but these have to be carefully balanced in order not to spill over the stronger and more significant religious standpoint to otherwise very secular Turkmenistan. But the data from the country does not seem to match these efforts and many fear that a lot of it is just smoke and mirrors. In 2014, overview of the country`s economic freedom showed a small decline from the previous year.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
ReCent events show gReateR tendenCy of Caspian littoRal states and tuRkey to seRve as majoR eneRgy/ tRanspoRtation playeRs and theRefoRe gaining moRe independenCe and pRofit fRom this status
It showed no significant gain in the FDIs to the country`s economic sector, which matched the still present relative disengagement from the international community, apart from the gas trade. With the recently erected avant-garde monuments for the president, the country seems to have fallen back to its old trail. Highlighting the destabilizing factors in the near vicinity of the region, the authors of course could not predict the two major ones: the Ukrainian crisis, poisoning the interstate and inter- continental relations, damaging the overall economic progress and stability, and the rise of ISIS; the latter has been caused by the security loophole, left by the American forces in the Middle- Eastern region, and fueled by various extremisms, resulting from the overall failed western policies in this part of the world. Afghanistan of course is not to be neglected, the country is still very volatile to changes and the concerns over the overall rise in the international terrorist activities, many of which is supported and organized by ISIS, are also worth every consideration.
When it comes to the overall relationship between Russia, Caspian littoral states and the EU, the scenario is utterly wrong. Unfortunately, due to the Ukrainian crisis, the relations between Russia and the West are at its worst since the fall of the Berlin wall. The current trends seem to indicate a stronger Russian turn to Asia, again supporting the theory of a multi- polar world order, gaining in credibility, man power and capital. Additionally, the vision of Turkey and Azerbaijan being part of the EU common market seems outrageous for the moment, especially with the increased Islamophobia in Europe. When it comes to pipelines, the prediction of the Caspia, Inc. scenario definitely has some misperceptions. Although BTC will stay an important infrastructural pathway, Nabucco pipeline and the Russian counterpart, South Stream, were both cancelled and future projects are manifold and depending on the at-the-moment political support. Since the Trans- Caspian pipeline largely rests upon the potentially resolved issue of the status of the Caspian Sea, it is hard to tell what will happen in the upcoming 10 years. The last major breakthrough was reached last year, when all the Caspian littoral states agreed to lock foreign (military) vessels out of the Sea, therefore not fully applying the UNCLOS anytime in the future. This was a great strategic victory for Iran and Russia and it makes one wonder what can be found between the lines of this agreement. It might be possible that both, Russia as well as Iran, will agree on the border limitations sooner than expected as a compensation for this agreement, therefore granting full access to hidden natural resources to all the littoral states for exploitaton.
Such silver lining makes it easier to understand why the newcomers to the Caspian club, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, would agree to such terms in the first place, especially considering how some of them, namely Azerbaijan, were lobbying for the complete application of UNCLOS for the Caspian. But there are no clear signs on the agreement for the Caspian Sea status just yet, but these recent events show it might be one of a kind, sui generis status. The cancelation of the Nabucco pipeline project meant new life for the Azerbaijan/ Turkey financed Trans- Anatolian pipeline, with the Baku- chosen Trans- Adriatic pipeline to serve as the western leg of the project to Europe. Recent events show greater tendency of Caspian littoral states and Turkey to serve as major energy/ transportation players and therefore gaining more independence and profit from this status.
It might happen in the future that the new pipeline infrastructure to Europe will be neither Russian nor European, but Central Asian. Therefore, we can conclude that the scenario of Caspia, Inc is not likely to ever fully realize because the relations in the international community are what they are. Although the cold war is long over that does not mean the old geopolitical rivalries are likely to be forgotten anytime soon. And while the Caspian littoral countries are seemingly headed into a more independent and successful future, there are still many obstacles in the way regarding economy and internal politics and all have to be considered with great care. The future of the Caspian therefore seems less harmonious, especially when considering the international community as a whole, and not surprisingly, much more susceptible to political and economic realities to come.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
DAESH’S NEw CAuCASiAN ProviNCE
BRIAN HUGHES Brian Hughes is currently a student in the International Security and Intelligence Studies program at Bellevue University in Omaha, NE, USA.
T
he militant group Islamic State (DAESH) has filled power vacuums from Syria to Iraq. As its advances struggle forward due to increasing external resistance, it is continually searching for new recruits and new territory to push its message and power. One of the most important new regions for this militant message is the Russian Federation’s North Caucasus, a formerly wartorn region that knows its share of terrorist strife and has seen Russia use drastic force to incorporate a proKremlin government and keep the region from gaining radical Islamic independence on its southern flanks. The youngest Chechen generation has slowly become begrudging Russian supporters as the spiral of war mercifully ended and the region has witnessed the economic benefits of a rebuilt and slowly stabilizing economy. Conversely, older generations and the most devout of local Muslims reject Russian influence and continue to strive for separation from not only the Soviet past but from modern Russian governance. In this space of little autonomy and reliance on Moscow, DAESH has tried to initiate an alternative voice of independence, declaring a new Islamic province, ‘Wilayat Qawqaz,’ spanning the North Caucasus region.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
DAESH relies heavily on an innovative and polarizing message to recruit and expand its illusory borders. In the North Caucasus, it has relied on sympathy for the so-called fight for Islamic independence and an ardent rejection of Kremlin influence. With this message, it has aligned itself with al-Qaeda’s Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus, with four of the six most powerful divisions formally aligning themselves with DAESH after the announcement. While it’s unclear how the divisions of allegiance with other al-Qaeda affiliates will ultimately affect the region, the declaration of Wilayat Qawqaz and loyalty with some alQaeda affiliates clearly demonstrates the brazen and confident nature of DAESH to operate away from its base in Iraq. Interestingly, DAESH did not declare the new Wilayat in any simple or crude way, but advanced the announcement through an impressive technological and media blitz.
iN THE NorTH CAuCASuS, iT HAS rEliED oN SymPATHy for THE So-CAllED figHT for iSlAmiC iNDEPENDENCE AND AN ArDENT rEjECTioN of KrEmliN iNfluENCE The most visual and advanced propaganda tool for this in Russia, released just weeks after declaring Wilayat Qawqaz, is an Android-only app simply titled ‘Caucas,’ (sic) and provides daily news from DAESH offensives in Syria and Iraq. Additionally, it provides Russian translated videos of DAESH leaders, such as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.It’s not clear who precisely is behind the app, but it clearly shows that DAESH factions are increasingly interested in the future of the North Caucasus.
Although a technologically simple app, it marks the first time a Russian-only DAESH app has been created and maintained daily. Another DAESH media outlet in Russia, Furat Media, made its debut just weeks before the announcement of the new province. Furat appears to be a professionally-managed organization that propagates DAESH viewpoints along with traditional news and wartime updates. Along with a website, Furat utilizes Twitter, Facebook, and Tumblr accounts and used these platforms to initially announce the establishment of Wilayat Qawqaz. DAESH factions created outlets to not only announce the establishment of the new province, but to unify its Russian base with up-to-date news coverage from the socalled Caliphate’s front lines. Thus, the release of these two new media platforms weeks from each other and timed with the declaration of the new Caucasian province signals that DAESH clearly wants to expand its influence into the post-Soviet space, where admittedly there are plenty of radical Islamic terrorists waiting for new support. This marks a bold progression in DAESH’s vision. With thousands of Chechen separatists and terrorists potentially filling the ranks of DAESH, it must consider Russian-speaking initiatives of great importance. These apps, videos, and media outlets have allowed the Arabic-speaking leadership to engage Russian-speaking zealots, communicating daily a dangerous unifying mission to all fighters. Current estimates of the combined DAESH forces of Wilayat Qawqaz stands at 15,000 combatants. With recruitment becoming the primary focus, those numbers could ultimately swell in the coming years. With terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus dwindling drastically from 2010 to 2014, DAESH has deftly stoked dying embers into a real potentiality for renewed insurgency.
It’s unclear what the implications for Russia will be in the coming months as DAESH pushes for general population acceptance of the new Wilayat. While the Chechen population has long strived for independence throughout their history, a large majority now accept a somewhat autonomous role under the Russian Federation. For Russia to recreate a heavy-handed security state inside Chechnya in response to the DAESH threat would only recall echoes of the first and second Chechen Wars of the 1990s and 2000s. In addition to North Caucasus terrorists, Moscow’s Security Council chief in June stated that there was a real problem with containing the flow of Chechen fighters to Syria and Iraq. While estimates vary, there is some consensus that there are at least 2,000 Russian nationals fighting alongside DAESH. However, it is unclear if the goal of the new media platforms is to bolster the North Caucasian causes or for DAESH recruitment efforts for the Levant Caliphate. Either way, Russia may eventually need to address its national security concerns there, but will be
hard-pressed to find a solution that honors the relatively effective soft power approaches Moscow has used since the Chechen ceasefire of 2009. More likely, security will once again be tightened, with human rights restricted, and Russian soldiers free to act on their own discretion. This will only bolster DAESH’s cause and degrade the influence Russia has built in the North Caucasus. For the Kremlin, it marks yet another challenge in an atmosphere of lowered Russian morale, declining support for Vladimir Putin in the southern region, and the realities of a fairly severe economic recession because of Western sanctions. Ultimately, it is unclear if DAESH can truly begin a dangerous and more intense offensive in Chechnya and beyond or if the ultimate goal is advancing just recruitment bases. Either way, there is no doubt that Russia will need to address this new threat as DAESH is proving its technological savvy and media-support efforts are highly effective in spilling influential propaganda and deadly terrorism across any borders.
THE CASPIAN PROJECT | ISSUE 13
www.moderndiplomacy.eu