GEOPOLITICAL
HANDBOOKS Climate Change Proof to Convince Even an Irrational Skeptic How Increased Carbon Dioxide Levels Are Detrimental To Food and Nutrition
Disasters sweep world while Trump scorns global warming … and grows an inch!
What Humans, Bees and Koala Bears Have in Common is Driven by Climate Change
Proof of Human Impotence and Agency in Climate Change While Disasters Multiply
Seven Reasons Why Climate Change Is Not a Hoax, Mr. Trump
Disasters, Climate Change and the Rational Option for Mankind Does the Latest IPCC Report Offer Hope For Earth Weather Disasters, Global Warming and the Potential for Conflict
moderndiplomacy www.moderndiplomacy.eu
WHY CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT A HOAX DR. ARSHAD M. KHAN
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Dr. Arshad M. Khan Dr. Arshad M. Khan is a former Professor based in the US. Educated at King's College London, OSU and The University of Chicago, he has a multidisciplinary background that has frequently informed his research. Thus he headed the analysis of an innovation survey of Norway, and his work on SMEs published in major journals has been widely cited. He has for several decades also written for the press: These articles and occasional comments have appeared in print media such as The Dallas Morning News, Dawn (Pakistan), The Fort Worth Star Telegram, The Monitor, The Wall Street Journal and others. On the internet, he has written for Antiwar.com, Asia Times, Common Dreams, Counterpunch, Countercurrents, Dissident Voice, Eurasia Review and Modern Diplomacy among many. His work has been quoted in the U.S. Congress and published in its Congressional Record.
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introduction
WE HUMANS ARE PROGRAMMED to respond to dangers apparent and immediate, but the long term, the incipient, and to our eyes invisible elude us. Climate change evidenced as global warming falls in this elusive category. It is for this reason demagogues and fossil fuel interests can continue to deny or minimize the dangers so clearly presented in the latest InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released on October 8, 2018.
The articles in this handbook furnish conclusive evidence of climate change and its effects. Unabated, it will devastate life on the planet. As it is extreme weather events have worsened in intensity in recent years causing loss of life and billions of dollars in property damage. Floods that happened once in a hundred years can be expected to occur once in 50 or 25 years. Low-lying countries are already experiencing partial inundation through rising sea levels. These could disappear completely.
The principal greenhouse gas culprit, carbon dioxide (CO2), has reached record levels in the atmosphere exceeding 400 parts per million for the ďŹ rst time during the existence of modern man.
What are we to do? Well, the new IPCC report offers clues. Its compromise of accepting a 1.5 degree Celsius rise in global mean temperature -- somewhere between the 2C rise of the Paris agreement and the present rise above preindustrial levels -- is exactly that ... a compromise. Severe weather consequences can still be expected to worsen. Logic then dictates the argument for the most interventionist scenarios where the atmospheric CO2 is eventually reduced. To that end it is abundantly clear that we as individuals must continue to pressure our elected representatives to act, and to vote out those who persist in denial or inaction.
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Climate Change Proof to Convince Even an Irrational Skeptic
The People’s Climate March on Saturday, April 29, 2017, flooded Washington, DC, with over 100,000 protesters. Organizers claimed 150,000, with marches in 330 other cities across the country and in three dozen solidarity events abroad. Coinciding with President Trump’s 100th day in office, the marchers also protested his anti-environmental actions.
him to all kinds of toxins generally orange colored. When have scientists marched like this? They are clearly worried.
Contrary to the administration’s cavalier attitude, climate change is not a belief; it is a determined fact, measurable and rationally undeniable. Just about every major international scientific academy endorses it, including the US National AcadThe previous Saturday (April 22, emy of Sciences. 2017), thousands of scientists marched to protest the Trump The melting Arctic ice, the administration’s belittling of sci- plight of polar bears, the polluence. The demonstrations were tion registered even in Arctic planned for Earth Day to signal snow … none of it has been a particular concern with the enough to deter this president. enormity of current climate pol- He asked theEnvironmental icy. Across the US and in hun- Protection Agency (EPA) in Jandreds of cities across the globe, uary to remove the climate more than 600 actions on every change page from its website, continent including Antarctica, which also carried links to they excoriated the president emission data and scientific rewith disparaging signs likening search. GEOPOLITICAL HANDBOOKS
He wants to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, arrived at after great effort and now ratified by 144 countries out of the 197 participants. In typical Trump fashion, he later added he might stay on if the US got a better deal.
There is a good reason. The CPP generated discussion at all levels of society when it was proposed. The initial draft produced more than 4.3 million comments because the Environmental Protection Agency made extraordinary efforts to inform, conduct public hearings, hold joint discussions between regulators and power producers, and encourage collaborations between federal energy bodies.
On March 28, he signed an executive order attempting to roll back the Clean Power Plan (CPP) and its restrictions on coal. He said it would bring jobs back to the coal mining communities. It was all designed to change the perspectives and motivaWhile of much concern, it may tions of stakeholders. In this, not be as easy as he thinks. the EPA succeeded, so much One might also have noticed so that even if the Trump adthe power companies (the main ministration prevails in its roll users of coal) are not rushing in back, it is unlikely to find many takers. to support Mr. Trump. MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU
At present, a full 44 percent of the US power supply is generated in coal-fired power plants. As of 2012, there were 572 such operational stations generating an average of 547 megawatts. The pollution from this coal burning comes in many forms: toxic emissions, smog, soot, acid rain and global warming. To those who deny man-made CO2 as a contributor to global warming, there is an irrefutable answer. Carbon in CO2 released from the burning of fossil fuels presents a unique signature through delta13C negation. This is because plants have less of the 13C isotope of carbon than that in the atmosphere so that the burning of fossil fuels reduces the isotope in the atmosphere.
It is measured as negative delta13C. The more negative the delta13C (as atmospheric CO2 increases), the higher the proportion of carbon from fossil fuels. Since 1980, delta13C has been on a consistent negative slope from -7.5 per mil to a -8.3 per mil in 2012 imputing human hands. Before the industrial revolution, it was -6.5 per mil. Put another way, our fingerprints are all over this crime scene. The current EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt, has repeatedly expressed doubts about the issue. Yet the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (2013) has enough detail to convince any rational skeptic.
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For the Trump administration’s climate change deniers, one can only present measurable, undeniable facts. The latest Arctic Report Card released December 13, 2016, by the National Oceanic and Atmo spheric Administration does exactly that. The peer-reviewed report brings together the work of 61 scientists from 11 nations, and is key to tracking changes in the Arctic.
Even Indonesian farmers are responding to the effects of climate change. Surely the American public has the right to expect public officials to be better informed than farmers, although the latter naturally observe the problems first hand.
What is happening in the Arctic is frightening. The region has experienced record-setting surface temperatures for three years in a row accelerating the ice and snow melt. In the past quarter-century it has lost twothirds of the volume of sea ice as well as snow cover. The result is increased exposure of water to sunlight and greater absorption of heat, which in turn melts more ice and snow in a vicious cycle (Martin Jeffries, James Overland and Don Perovich, Physics Today, October 2013). Worth noting of course is that the Antarctic is not immune.
There is a disturbing photograph of the Arctic showing a large green area in the middle. Ice cover is now so thin, sun-
light is able to penetrate through, enabling plankton to grow in the water below.The effect of Arctic warming on weather in the mid-latitudes is another issue. As yet the scientific community is ambivalent because mathematical computer simulations have not proved significant, at least not on a global scale. Local effects are another matter: Loss of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas in the Arctic have been linked to cold, stormy conditions in Eastern Asia through both simulations and field observations. It can, of course, be a harbinger of future global effects when the Arctic ice melts further.
Local effects are another matter: Loss of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas in the Arctic have been linked to cold, stormy conditions in Eastern Asia through both simulations and field observations. It can, of course, be a harbinger of future global effects when the Arctic ice melts further.
Whether all the evidence and the logic will gather much traction among the climate change deniers of the Trump administration is another matter. That is why the People’s Climate March protesters were marching. So were the scientists. Their discipline, resilient yet based on fact, theoretical yet based on empirical evidence, The effect of Arctic warming on bringing benefits to society as weather in the mid-latitudes is a whole, forces them to. another issue. As yet the scientific community is ambivalent because mathematical computer simulations have not proved significant, at least not on a global scale.
How Increased Carbon Dioxide Levels Are Detrimental To Food and Nutrition
The UN has announced record average levels of CO2. So states the annual agship report released October 30 by its World Meteorological Organization. The average levels measured using ships, aircraft and land stations have reached over 400 parts per million (ppm), prompting the authors and other scientists to urge strong action.
At the 23rd Conference of the Parties (COP23) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) taking place Nov 6-17 at UNFCCC headquarters in Bonn, local and regional leaders have signed the Bonn-Fiji Commit-
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ment for faster climate action to help deliver the Paris Accords. Such efforts are increasingly urgent.
That climate change will affect food production is intuitive. Rising global temperatures and the consequent extreme weather events and changes in climate patterns impact production, distribution and potential for spoilage. Some of the worst hurt will be people in a broad tropical belt of countries in Africa, Asia and the Americas. And ever more severe hurricanes and typhoons due to rising ocean temperatures will do their damage to coastal areas.
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But there is another effect related to rising CO2 levels: Higher CO2 concentration stimulates plant growth. Plants are larger, producing more carbohydrates, but this fast growth lowers the concentration of protein and essential minerals. As this also affects food crops like rice, wheat, potatoes and vegetables, it is likely to impact negatively on nutrition and health.
As CO2 rises, plant stomata (pores that facilitate gas exchange) close up. Less water transpiring through the stomata results in less water from the roots, and less minerals brought up to build the proteins and vitamins.
A Harvard study reports that under elevated concentrations of CO2 (eCO2) as projected for 2050-2100, protein content decreased as follows: rice (7.6 percent), wheat (7.8 percent), barley (14.1 percent) and potatoes (6 .4 percent). It estimated an additional 148 million of the world’s population could risk protein deficiency. Plant-based diets (such as those prevalent in India) increase vulnerability in the population. The study also projects that a billion-plus mothers and 354 million children could be affected by a dietary drop in iron and subsequent anemia.
The levels of CO2 have been rising steadily since the industrial revolution. In the nearly 60 years since 1958, they have increased from 316 ppm to the latest figure of 406.58 ppm
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measured on January 22, 2017. It is the highest figure in human history. The Harvard study noted above predicts CO2 to increase in the range 500-700 ppm for 2050-2100. Meanwhile, the US Global Change Research Program projects CO2 levels to reach anywhere from 540-958 ppm by 2100 — the latter figure a truly disconcerting scenario.
ton could not eat enough to thrive. Another way growth speeds up is through increased levels of atmospheric CO2, and that also increases levels of carbohydrates through plant sugars, thereby diluting other nutrients. Loladze had moved to a post-doctorate position at Princeton, and while there, published his findings as “Rising CO2 and Human Nutrition: Towards Globally Imbalanced Vegetables too, are not im- Plant Stoichiometry.” mune. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), It was the first to propose that in studying the food content of rising CO2 levels cause a 43 garden crops, found signifi- change in plant quality, reduccant decline in nutrients. They ing essential minerals and profound statistically reliable de- tein, thus affecting human clines in protein, calcium, phos- nutrition. A later article backed phorous, iron, riboflavin and up his assertions with solid reascorbic acid, ranging from 6 search. percent for protein to 38 percent for riboflavin. To maintain Many researchers are now inhealth, humans will have to volved in the area. Thus, a supplement their diet with vita- paper by Swedish and German mins and minerals. It is a academics published this year prospect not very feasible in examined wheat crops under the less developed countries, elevated levels of CO2. Its findleaving those populations ex- ings confirm increasing yields posed to malnutrition and early but decreasing nutrients, indeath. cluding significant reductions in the dietary important eleIrakli Loladze noted the effects ments N, Fe, S, Zn and Mg. of speeded up growth on plant nutrients while pursuing a Ph.D. If humans are impacted, then at Arizona State University. The surely other species are as well. subject was green algae, and Lewis Ziska, a noted researcher how, when they were bom- with the USDA, planned an exbarded with light, they grew periment to allay another confaster. Yet the plankton that fed cern: that of plant breeding and on it, and had now more than its effect on nutrients. He enough to eat, began to strug- chose the goldenrod, a wild gle to survive. The cause was flower for which there is a long soon evident. Speeded up history. The Smithsonian has in growth had so reduced the nu- its archive samples dating back tritional content that the plank- as far as 1842. GEOPOLITICAL HANDBOOKS
Since no human plant breeding is involved in the goldenrod, it afforded the Ziska team a clear path to look at environmental effects. They discovered the protein content had reduced by a third through increasing CO2.
It also happens the goldenrod is critical to bees. It owers late and the protein in its pollen is an important source of nutrition for bees as they build themselves up to weather the winter. Thus, a drastic drop like a third of protein content could easily contribute to the serious decline in bee populations around the globe.
Moreover, strenuous replenishment efforts by beekeepers have helped to stabilize somewhat these domesticated colonies. Of course, wild bee losses are another matter. Bees are critically important as they pollinate over 80 percent of cultivated fruit, vegetable and grain crops, not to mention nuts, herbs, oils, forage for dairy and beef cattle, and medicinal plants.
One ďŹ nal sobering thought: The nutrient content of food is expected to continue to fall as CO2 levels increase this century. There is no doubt that this decline will impact a wide range Now with its own acronym, of species, including us. CCD for Colony Collapse Disorder, it continues, although thankfully has declined from a high of 60 percent in 2008 to 31.1 percent in 2013, as reported by beekeepers to the Environmental Protection Agency.
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What Humans, Bees and Koala Bears Have in Common is Driven by Climate Change
The koala is an engaging, docile, cuddly and lovable animal. It is also, tragically, undergoing a decline in numbers. To the extent climate change and a degraded environment are responsible, we can be blamed for not heeding the repeated warnings of scientists and others.
The late Henry Kendall was the winner of a Nobel Prize in physics, a founding member of the Union of Concerned Scientists, and the chairman of its governing board. He spearheaded the effort leading to the 1992 warning signed by 1700 eminent scientists, including then a majority of science Nobel Laureates. It appealed Warnings to humanity are for the help of the world’s peomuch in the news again as the ples, its scientists, religious, inlatest, signed by over 15,000 dustrial and business leaders. scientists from 184 countries, appeared in the journal Bio- Earlier still, there was Rachel science not long ago on No- Carson’s 1962 canary in the vember 13. But before, much coal mine, The Silent Spring, fabefore, there was an earlier one, mous for its attack on pestinow a quarter century past. cides like DDT. GEOPOLITICAL HANDBOOKS
While these warnings caution us on the degradation of our planet, there is one area that might be implied but is not specifically mentioned: the negative impact on the quality of our food. Noted first by Irakli Loladze, the relatively new discovery was hypothesized in 2002.
fered a drastic loss of about a third as atmospheric CO2 levels have increased. There may be other causes like pesticides and parasitic mites but lack of nutrition has to be a major candidate.
This distressing and unhappy prospect is not confined to humans. Bees rely on the goldenrod plant. It flowers late, and the protein in its pollen is vitally important for them to build themselves up to weather the winter. Unfortunately, as scientists have learned, the protein content in goldenrod has suf-
Many causes are attributed to the serious drop in koala bear numbers, including habitat destruction, road kills, bush fires and loss of genetic fitness due to inbreeding, but also chlamydia. This STD has found a fertile field in its complicated genetic apparatus, aided possibly by weakened immunity.
In the parts of the world relying on a plant-based diet, people cannot easily compensate for the loss of nutrients. The proven decline of protein, iron and zinc in grains, potatoes and vegetables will inevitably lead to stunted growth, anemia and more disease.
On the other side of the world lives the harmless Koala bear. A marsupial, it is truly unique for feeding only on eucalyptus leaves. Most unusually the female has three vaginas, the outer two leading each to a separate uterus while the center passage is for delivery of its young. To complement this anatomy, the male is endowed with a double-pronged penis.
In some places infection rates are as high as 90 percent. Sadly, the little joeys pick it up suckling in their pouch. Moreover, the infection can also leave mothers infertile.
Now a new threat has been identified leaving them on the brink. The koalas source of all nourishment, the eucalyptus tree, has been affected by increasing CO2 levels. The koalas rely on the mildly toxic leaves for food and water and up to now have been able to tolerate the toxicity — they sleep up to 20 hours to work it out. But the rise in CO2 has decreased nutrition content leaving them more poisonous. Feeding on these, the koalas are ingesting ever more poison. Worse, the Australian drought, blamed on global warming for its intensity, has left the leaves with reduced moisture content. The stresses have left the koalas dying from kidney failure.
How long before they are added to the ever-increasing endangered list? Unless the world really sits up and takes notice, we will be soon adding our pollinator bee friends and, eventually, ourselves to that list. It is what we have in common.
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Seven Reasons Why Climate Change Is Not a Hoax, Mr. Trump
REASON #1: Consider the category 4 and 5 hurricanes that have developed in one season — the intensity attributed to climate change. The latest, hurricane Maria devastated Dominica lost some of its force but still hit Puerto Rico as a category four — the worst in living memory. About two weeks earlier, hurricane Irma flattened St. Maarten with 225 mph winds. Including Matthew last October, there have been three of category 5 strength within the period of a year.
REASON #2: Harvey had been downgraded below a tropical storm in the Atlantic. Unfortunately, the waters of the Gulf near the coast were 2.7 to 7.2 degrees F warmer than usual, and it regained strength returning to hurricane force. By the time it reached Houston, it had intensified to a category 4, the
second most severe. Not only are waters warming but sea levels are rising exacerbating the effects of the storms — the storm surge rears up over a higher sea level increasing the height of the flood waters.
The heartrending television coverage of Houston shows the tragedy of residents who have lost everything. Schools and universities are closed. Rescuers have arrived from faraway states to help, as among other things there is a shortage of boats to ferry stranded homeowners. Many had never been flooded ever before and figured they were on high enough ground to be safe.
The ravages of hurricane Harvey and the record 50 inches of rain in its wake is the result of what is described as a 500-year event. GEOPOLITICAL HANDBOOKS
REASON#6: Hear just about any scientist working in the field. Every major international scientific academy endorses it including the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. And the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report What is happening there is (2013) has enough detail to frightening. The region has ex- convince any rational skeptic — perienced record-setting sur- no one can convince the nuts. face temperatures for three years in a row accelerating the REASON#7: Look at the scienice and snow melt. In the past tists who have been protesting. quarter-century it has lost two- Thousands of them have thirds of the volume of sea ice marched to protest your adminas well as snow cover. The re- istration’s belittling of science. sult is increased exposure of The demonstrations were water to sunlight and greater planned for Earth Day to signal absorption of heat, which in a particular concern with the turn melts more ice and snow enormity of current climate polin a vicious cycle (Martin Jef- icy — across the US and in hunfries, James Overland and Don dreds of cities across the globe, Perovich, Physics Today, Octo- more than 600 actions on every ber 2013). continent including Antarctica. Your irrational skepticism has There is a really worrying pho- them baffled and clearly wortograph of the Arctic showing a ried. large green patch in the middle. Green in the middle of the Arc- Look at all the evidence and the tic you ask yourself! The text logic for there is only a small explains what is happening. Ice window, which is closing rapcover is now so thin sunlight is idly. That is why the scientists able to penetrate through. That were marching. Their discienables plankton to grow in the pline, resilient yet based on water below. fact, theoretical yet based on empirical evidence, brings benREASON #5: Look at the efits to society as a whole. Antarctic. It, too, is not im- Their conscience forces them mune. Antarctica is featured in to march. the July 2017 National Geographic. Dramatic satellite pho- You don’t fix your car yourself, tos show how a 225 square do you? The experts know mile chunk of ice breaks off more. So, listen to them. It is from the Pine Island ice shelf, the only way we can leave a which supports a massive gla- habitable world for future gencier. A second rift is forming al- erations. ready.
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is peer-reviewed, and brings together the work of 61 scientists from 11 nations, and is key to tracking changes in the Arctic.
The only trouble with that is there have now been three in the last three years. The rainfall almost doubles each time, and this is by far the worst.
REASON #3: One consequence of the increased frequency of extreme events is scientific scrutiny of the hydrological cycle. Just published in Science (August 11, pp. 58890), the prestigious organ of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), is research on a vast continental scale in Europe. The 46 authors are one measure of the scope of the work, which looks at flood timing changes. Never previously observed with smaller studies, the authors have been the first to identify a clear climate change signal.
REASON #4: Look at what is happening in the Arctic. The plight of the polar bears, the pollution registered even in Arctic snow, the melting Arctic ice are just some of the symptoms. The latest Arctic Report Card released December 13, 2016 by
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Disasters sweep world while Trump scorns global warming … and grows an inch!
The presidential tweet scorning climate change, namely “We could do with some of that climate change here,” after severe blizzards hit the U.S. east coast, could not have been more inopportune!
ward trend accelerating from 1975 is obvious, even to any naive observer. Why is it not obvious to Mr. Trump? The answer to that question might lie in electioneering, politics, constituencies, supporters — both voters and financial contribuFigures published last Thurs- tors — and a host or reasons day (January 16) by the world’s that have nothing to do with scithree main organizations mon- ence. itoring global temperatures (NASA, NOAA and the UK Met While a warming globe does Office) show 2017 to be the not actually cause weather warmest on record for a year in events, it does certainly amplify which temperatures were not them. Parched forests and boosted by El Niño. If one fac- record-breaking wild fires in tors in El Niño, it was still one of Australia and California. the top three hottest years Last year hurricanes of surprisrecorded. Looking at the graph of global ing intensity devastating Houstemperatures from pre-indus- ton or Puerto Rico — how much trial times on, an inexorable up- has Trump done for the latter? GEOPOLITICAL HANDBOOKS
If 2017 was a non-El Niño year and still a record-breaker, the onus is on manmade causes. What will future generations think of us if we do nothing and their habitats are washed away into the oceans?
This week a battered Netherlands with hurricane force storms toppling shipping containers, ripping off roofs, blowing pedestrians across roads, dislodged flying roof tiles closing airport terminals, sweeping a bus off the road into a canal, stopping train services — the latter also in the North RhineWestphalia region of Germany.
Filtered through the alembic of Donald Trump’s brain, where a lie is a convenient ploy, it is all transformed into a hoax, and the U.S. is pulled out of the Paris climate accord — now the sole such country in the world.
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Environmental records and disasters might have been swirling around the news circuit, Mr. Trump’s mind was elsewhere, focused on his corpus — now a disputed enormity. After his physical, he was reported to be an inch taller than his selfclaimed height or that on his driver’s license — a miracle or an ‘incredible’ coiffure?– a crucial issue for the Donald because the extra inch reduces his BMI (body mass index) classifying him ‘overweight’ instead of ‘obese’ — ‘vanity of vanity; all is vanity,’ said the preacher (Ecclesiastes 1:2). It’s just an arbitrary classification by doctors, yet of such critical importance in the highest office The closest epoch when aver- in the land. age concentrations of CO2 ranged from 380 to 450 ppm — Meanwhile, ahead of Davos, we are now above 407 ppm — now in progress, a survey of was the middle Pliocene 1000 experts from government, around 3.6 million years ago. business and academia has reThe area around the North Pole ported the risk of war in 2018 was much warmer, as much as has risen sharply. 19 degrees Celsius higher than the present. The surrounding land area was forested and ungulates roamed free. It is not going to happen tomorrow but over hundreds and thousands of years that is the future. What happens to the ice melt? That is the problem for coastlines and low-lying islands.
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Proof of Human Impotence and Agency in Climate Change While Disasters Multiply
To be rational is to know that weather events cannot be causally related to climate change, although exacerbation is another issue. Yet when the news is full of record setting fires in California and Greece and Australia, temperature records tumbling, and typhoons and hurricanes relentless in their intensity, one might be forgiven for wondering.
Now there is new climate research on the troposphere, a region extending from the surface of the earth to 16 km (10 miles) at the tropics and 13 km at the poles.
Researchers have studied the amplitudes of the annual cycle of tropospheric temperatures, the highs and the lows, and how these have changed over time. Above all, they have exThose who are not climate sci- amined human agency. entists can only interpret research done by others for the The news, as they say, is not general public and form opin- good. Their results the authors ions colored by their work. That state, “provide powerful and sum of work as it develops be- novel evidence for a statisticomes more frightening by the cally significant human effect day, with a strong fear the pre- on earth’s climate.” They call it dictions will come true earlier ‘anthropogenic forcing’. than anticipated. GEOPOLITICAL HANDBOOKS
As a consequence we have “pronounced midlatitude increases in annual cycle amplitudes in both hemispheres.” These are repeated in satellite data. It means higher tropospheric temperatures in summer and lower in winter.
Not only is there “seasonality in some of the climate feedbacks triggered by external forcings” (read human fingerprint), say the authors, but worse “there are widespread signals of seasonal changes in the distribution and abundance of plant and animal species.” In other words, we are screwing up wildlife, both plant and animal.
It is as if the air in the earth’s attic is warmer in summer and colder in winter. And its air conditioner, the tropical rainforest is on the blink. Greed for hardwoods and farmland has resulted in serious depletion.
Meanwhile, carbon dioxide levels continue to soar, exceeding 412 ppm on May 14, 2018. The last time the earth reached a 400 ppm threshold was several million years ago. The human footprint here is proven through the negative delta13C levels caused by fossil fuel use because plants are lacking in the 13C isotope of carbon. Combining the CO2 rise with increasing tropospheric temper ature cycle amplitudes can only magnify the problem. A new report in the Proceedings of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences lays out a scenario for a self-reinforcing feedback loop,
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a ‘hothouse earth’ at which point no human action could prevent catastrophe. A quick glance at recent weather disaster reports, several within a week, should satisfy skeptics of the exacer bation of extreme events:
The climate story is not new; from Svante Arrhenius, the Swedish scientist who foresaw global warming from the use of fossil fuel (and thought it to be fortunate for Northern Europe) to James E. Hansen the climate scientist who, in historic Senate testimony on June 23, 1988, The Mendocino Complex fire in gave clear warning of the California is the largest in the greenhouse effect that was state’s history. It is uncontrol- changing the earth’s climate. lable and expected to burn through August. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was estabRecord breaking rains in West- lished later that year, although ern Japan have resulted in the Montreal Protocol a year floods causing over 150 fatali- earlier had set the stage. The ties and mudslides knocking Fifth IPCC Assessment was over and destroying homes. published in 2014 and the next “We’ve never experienced this one is due in 2022. Yet, what kind of rain before,” said a have we learned? weather official. On July 19, 2018, the House of Floods in France have led to the Representatives passed a nonevacuation of 1600 people. binding resolution, H.Con. Res. The flooding comes after the 119, denouncing a carbon tax area and much of Europe suf- as detrimental to the U.S. econfered extremely hot weather. omy. As we march to climate Thus in July, devastating wild- self-destruction, the president fires in Greece killed 92 people. wants to increase the use of And as warning in Southeast- coal and has withdrawn from ern Australia, the bushfire sea- the Paris Agreement. son has been brought forward two months from October due So there we are … the ostrich to excessively dry hot weather. syndrome in full effect.
Extremely heavy rains in Toronto have flooded the city. Two men trapped in a basement elevator were rescued through the heroic efforts of first responders, who swam to the elevator and used a crowbar to open the doors. There was just a foot of breathable air when the men swam out.
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Disasters, Climate Change and the Rational Option for Mankind
The phenomenon of a random pattern of winds coalescing into a hurricane may not be caused by global warming, but warmer ocean temperatures powering it up is entirely possible. Hawaii is experiencing one of the two worst hurricanes in its history, and last week Kerala in India, was flooded almost in its entirety by a record-breaking monsoon season leaving a million people homeless.
Not only is CO2 rising to levels not seen heretofore in several million years, but the human fingerprint is indelible and irrefutable. The consistent delta 13C negation proves it through the absence of this carbon isotope in the fossil fuels used. Magnifying the problem are the newly-observed increasing amplitudes of the tropospheric temperature cycle; here the re-
searchers refer to the trigger of ‘external forcings’ implying a human hand.
Like Rip Van Winkle, Donald Trump is fast asleep, seemingly unaware of the window for action on climate change closing, while he recommends increased coal consumption — a preposterous throwback supported by Republicans in Congress. What will it take to stir him from his sleep of childish vain glory?– water balloons thrown at Mar-a-Lago by a 100,000 demonstrators strikes a suitably puerile note … Our global temperatures are up 1.2 degrees Celsius changing weather patterns. The dry spells are longer and worsened by high temperature records in numerous places including Portugal and Greece. GEOPOLITICAL HANDBOOKS
And the world seems to be burning up: Wildfires in Greece, Australia, Central Africa, eastern China, Brazil and in the U.S. According to the U.S. Department of the Interior, 71,449 wildfires occurred here in 2017 burning 10 million acres. Each year over 300,000 people die as a consequence of wildfires, over half that number in Sub-Saharan Africa, the lessdeveloped countries suffering disasters the worst.
Now that Trump has cut the budget for Regional Climate Centers, which generate the weather early warning information helping to control and prevent wildfires, the U.S. might be adding more to this macabre body count.
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Extended dry spells are followed by rain, pouring down in the copious quantities carried by warmer air, and in weatherevents once uncommon but now more frequent. The refrain, ‘We have never experienced this before’ is repeated often — in Japan last month, in Kerala last week, and in Hawaii now … Hawaii, which also had 50 inches of rain earlier this year. Weather events supposed to occur once in a hundred years are destined to become more frequent.
of Pakistan’s land area was affected. The long-term problem, however, is scarcity as warming affects its source, the ice-melt in the Himalayas.
Climate change will force cooperating and understanding between countries or will lead to devastating wars. Both India and Pakistan use the Indus and its tributaries. The Mekong river is shared by six countries, and upstream China has built dams causing problems downstream. The Nile was monopolized by Egypt but now Ethiopia Monsoon floods as in Kerala is building a dam upstream. are an annual event on the Indian subcontinent but not in The world has to find a way to their present devastating form. deal purposefully with climate In 2010, the Indus in Pakistan change and in the peaceful flooded in biblical proportions: sharing of resources. Conse20 million people were dis- quences otherwise are too unplaced, 2000 died, and one-fifth settling to contemplate.
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Does the Latest IPCC Report Offer Hope For Earth
Hurricanes and storms on both sides of the Atlantic appeared to encore the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change. It had just concluded the finalization of a special report on the impact of a 1.5 degree Celsius global warming above preindustrial levels.
Two earlier versions (January and June 2018) of the report were depressing to frightening. They were made available for about a month for comment by experts and interested parties. The real problem is a narrow window because human activity in the world emits 40 billion tons of CO2 per year — about Meeting in Incheon, South 90 times the emission from volKorea (October 1-5), its three canoes. working groups of experts and government officials have hud- At some point, there will be dled and jousted to strike a con- enough in the atmosphere sensus on what will be where the 1.5 degree rise will necessary to restrict warming be a foregone conclusion. to 1.5 degrees Celsius when While guesswork to some exthe globe is already up one de- tent, it appears we have about gree. What will earth be like 12 years before we exhaust the with this level of warmth and ‘carbon budget’; if we accept a 2C rise the date is 2045. what will happen if we fail? GEOPOLITICAL HANDBOOKS
The tone may have been softened in the second report, but there is ‘substantial’ certainty the 2 degrees C target of the 2015 Paris Agreement, once considered safe, would be dangerous for humanity. As the agreement also required governments to pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C, the remit to IPCC was to prepare a report comparing the consequences of the two alternatives as well as the feasibility and effort required to limit the rise to the lower figure. The final report released on Oct 8, 2018 reviews 30,000 publications. The fact that parts of the earth are already warmer than the 2 degree C figure and the results are observable should be a driver for governments. In the Arctic, for example, where temperatures have risen up to 3 degrees C, the effort has seen chunks of icebergs breaking off and polar bears having difficulty in catching seals because of fewer blowholes — where they normally wait in ambush. Current temperatures are higher than they ever have been in the past two millennia.
For low-lying Pacific Islands the 1.5C goal is critical for many there would lose habitat and some islands are expected to disappear under the 2C target. The Maldives in the Indian ocean are partly under water, and some Pacific islands have already disappeared as average world sea levels rise by 3 mm a year. Yet Tuvalu has become
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an exception and its land area, studied from 1971 to 2014, is growing. Eight of its nine atolls are found to be still rising, increasing the “area by 29 percent, even though sea levels in the country rose by twice the global average.”
Even so the consequences of the earth already being 1 degree C higher than preindustrial times are apparent in the proliferation of extreme weather events. Unduly powerful hurricanes as in Puerto Rico or Houston, record-breaking forest fires in the U.S. and Australia, monsoons in South India this year that in Kerala have been the worst in this century, and the record temperatures in northern Europe are a few examples.
Last week the 155 mph Category 5 Hurricane Michael, 5 mph short of Category 6, devastated the Florida panhandle and continued its destruction onward into Georgia and beyond. It was the strongest to hit this part of Florida since records began in 1881. On the other side of the Atlantic within a week, storms and hurricanes battered Europe:
The IPCC report presents four pathways (p.19 Executive Summary) each with net zero CO2 emissions within the next quarter century. The least interventionist scenario utilizes only afforestation to remove CO2. The report is optimistic in demonstrating synergies (p.27) with sustainable development goals. That CO2 removal technologies known as direct air capture (DAC) are also being developed successfully adds to the optimism.
At the same time the warnings are clear. All the options require a rapid decarbonization of the fuel s:upply i.e. no fossil fuels — coal just about gone by 2050 and three-quarters of the energy from renewables (p.19 after four pathways graphs). The risks for fisheries and coral reefs will remain high (p.13) even with the 1.5C scenario and coastal populations and farming will be worse off than now. Severe weather consequences can be expected to worsen. But all that is the world to be. Hence the argument for the most interventionist scenarios where the atmospheric CO2 is eventually reduced.
For all this the need to act now Hurricane Leslie in Portugal, is clear in the facts and numstorm Callum in Britain and bers. heavy rains in France causing flash floods in the Aude region of south-west France. All of which can be expected to worsen as the earth’s mean temperature rises, increasing in both frequency and intensity.
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Weather Disasters, Global Warming and the Potential for Conflict
East Island was an uninhabited remote island in the Hawaiian chain, but it was an important refuge for wildlife: Many of the endangered Hawaiian monk seals numbering about 1400 raised their young on that island; others like the green sea turtle and the albatross used it as a shelter. Not any more because Hurricane Walaka washed away most of the island a few days ago.
It was not the only major Pacific storm last week for category 5 Typhoon Yutu devastated the Northern Marianas, a U.S. territory. It was reputedly the worst U.S. storm since 1935.
Perhaps happenstance, but the rise in mean temperature due to global warming also exacerbates storms.
In September, Hurricane Florence hit North Carolina — 51 people died. The next month Hurricane Michael slammed the Florida panhandle at 5 mph short of a category 5, a record for the area. Following just a few days after the IPCC (October 8, 2018) report on restricting global warming to 1.5 C, it seemed like nature’s affirmation. The residents of the area have not yet recovered from the devastation. The same is true in Puerto Rico and the other affected areas where over 3000 people reportedly have lost their lives due to Hurricane Maria a year ago. It followed on the heels of Irma tearing through several other Carib bean islands before arriving in Florida. And Harvey flooded Houston causing a record $125 billion in damage. GEOPOLITICAL HANDBOOKS
The Mekong river passes through China, Burma, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. It is entwined in the livelihood and culture of the region, and upstream dams now threaten centuries-old agricultural and fishing practices downstream.
Across the Atlantic, there have been heavy rains in Turkey where a 300 year-old bridge was washed away, and flooding in France, Wales and Scotland. Hurricane Leslie targeted Portugal weakening fortunately to a tropical storm before landfall, and last year Hurricane Ophelia skirted past, its winds fanning wild fires in Portugal and Spain before becoming the worst storm to hit Ireland in 50 years although not at hurricane force, having dissipated in the colder northern waters.
How can such problems be resolved? They are also not the only ones. Parched or flooded farmlands, rising seas, and persistent severe weather will cause large areas to become uninhabitable. Should then the mandate of bodies like the IPCC be expanded to deal with such consequences of climate change? It is a possibility although government representatives are inherently biased. More appropriate perhaps would be neutral international commissions composed of experts. But how should affected people be settled? We have a caravan of 1000 headed to the U.S. and causing much discomfiture in the Trump administration. Imagine the numbers multiplied by 100 or a 1000.
Other threats to crops include water shortages. Countries relying on rivers for irrigation are threatened when the head waters are under the control of rivals. Nuclear armed India and Pakistan are a case in point. The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty lays down a mechanism for joint management, but Narendra Modi, India’s current nationalist Hindu prime minister aborted all engagement albeit temporarily. India is building dams upstream which worries Pakistan, and in the latest row Pakistan has banned all Indian Then there are the insidious ef- TV channels — Indian movies fects usually unearthed by sci- and TV are popular in Pakistan. entists. A warmer earth makes hungry insects hungrier i.e. There are other regions with po- All of which reminds us again those voracious caterpillars will tential water conflicts. Ethiopia that global warming is the most be munching even more. So is building a grand dam on the important issue we face. predict scientists in a study Nile for electricity generation. published in the August 31, The water used for electricity 2018 issue of Science and re- will continue to flow downported on elsewhere. Insects stream but irrigation water if will be causing 10 to 25 percent any is bled off — possible when more damage to wheat, maize there is a colossal reservoir and rice crops with a 2 degrees that will take 5 to 15 years to C rise in mean temperature fill. Egypt’s life-blood is the Nile, above preindustrial levels as and water flow can be seriously per the Paris agreement. affected depending on the fill rate.
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