SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE Emilian M. Dobrescu Senior scientific researcher with the Institute of National Economy, scientific secretary of the Economic, Juridical and Sociological Sciences Section of the Romanian Academy, member of the Academy of Scientists of Romania Edith Mihaela Dobrescu Scientific researcher with the Institute of World Economy of the Romanian Academy
www.moderndiplomacy.eu GEO GRAPHY S HORT HI S TO RY T HE P OP ULAT ION PARAd Ox ANd RE LIGION O N GOvERNA Nc E T HE EcO NOMY ARA McO ’ S AvATA RS L E S S ER kNOwN fAc TS THE REv EALE d SEc RET Of A ME RIcAN BONdS Ed Uc ATI ON ANd c ULT URE k I NGd OM’S O UT LO Ok BY 2 0 30
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GEOGRAPHY
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audi Arabia covers 20% of the Arabic Peninsula’s area . Great portions of the boundaries with the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Yemen are not well defined – as they are in desert areas; due to this reason the exact dimension of the country is estimated to be approximately 2.240.000 km². The climate is dry and hot. Half of the country is desolate being a desert with extreme temperatures and some areas with oasis. The vegetation is scarce with a limited number of herbs and bushes in Saudi Arabia’s greatest part. Fauna includes wild cats, baboons, lions and hyenas. Red Sea coast has an important maritime fauna, mainly coral reefs. The coastal area stretches 2.640 km. The south-western region has mountains reaching 3.000 meters in altitude and is the greenest and the freshest area of the country. An average yearly temperature of 42°C and 14°C in January prevails in the capital city Ryiadh. Conversely, in Jeddah on the western coast there are temperatures of 31°C in July and 23°C in January. Saudi Arabia’s main towns are Riyadh, the capital, Dammam, Jeddah, Mecca, Medina. Mecca and Medina are notable for their religious significance for the Muslims or the followers of Islam. Jeddah is an important port at the Red Sea and the entry place for the African pilgrims.
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The Arabic Peninsula was inhabited since the first millemnium B.C. by Arab tribes who established small, evanescent kingdoms and was unified for the first time between 630635 A.D. by Muhammad, the founder of Islam. It is from there the Arab knight were set in move to spread the new religion through North Africa to Spain and in Asia to the heart of India. Mercy and learning were once attribited to the Arab World as well as the main elements of the revolution launched by Muhammad at a time Europe went through the dark ages. Those were for the Arabs and for the Islamic world glorious times of creativity characterized by an opening for knowledge and science. The main discoveries were made in the IX-th century when the scientists in Baghdad began translating the main scientific and philosophical works of foreign cultures and of classical antiquity. Together with the Indian mathematicians, the erudite Arabs perfected the modern numerical system, wrote the first treaties on algebra and defined geometry as a formal discipline.
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When the Abbasid Caliphate declined, small feudal emirates were established in the Arabic Peninsula in the IX-th and Xth centuries, emirates which in the XIVth century were subjected to Ottoman Empire’s suzerainty (with interludes) untill 1918. After 1740, Muhammad Ibn alWahhab established a puritanical and militant Islamic sect in Nejd and won on his side the Emir of Daraiyya, Muhammad Ibn Saud, the founder of the current ruling dinasty of Saudi Arabia. Ibn Saud and his son conquered Nejd and unified almost the entire peninsula under the rule of the Saudi dinasty but the Wahhabite state was defeated in 1818 by British and Egyptian troops.
SHORT HISTORY
The first attempt of establishing a Saudi state failed. Starting with 1902, Abd al-Aziz II Ibn Saud (1902-1953), the Emir of Nejd and imam of the Wahhabites restored the Wahhabite state and unified under his authority the greatest part of the Arabic Peninsula. On September 23rd, 1932 he took the title of King of Arabia. History scholars acknowledged England’s assistance during and after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, at the end of the First World War which made the emergence of the Saudi state possible. In 1933, a year after Saudi Arabia with its capital in Riyadh was founded, Ibn Saud licenced the exclusive oil exploitation to Standard Oil of California (USA).
Aramco company was a result of the said partnership, the Saudi state company controlling now reserves of 260 billion of oil barrels and more than 6000 billion of cu.m. of natural gas which generates almost three quarters of Kingdom’s GDP. This huge fortune financed the most modern and best equiped army in the Arab World, an ample system of social security, a missionary religious network spread all over the Muslim world and the spectacular Royal residences in Beverly Hills, London and south of France. The milestone of Saudi’s history could be precisely defined – March the 3rd, 1938, at Dammam town of the Persian Gulf where
after 15 months of drillings the American engineers commisioned the first commercially viable oil drill. The association between the oil companies of the United States and the ruler of Saudi Arabia, King Abdul Aziz ibn Saud placed Saudi Arabia on the world’s economic map. Almost 80 years elapsed since then. Nobody can detrmine now from which period the Royal House of Saud tried to disengage from and become independent of the USA.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
T H E P O P U L AT I O N PA R A D O x AND RELIGION
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audi Arabia’s population was in July, 2010 around 25.7 million persons including 5.6 million foreign workers. Kingdom’s population exploded from 6.2 million in 1970 to 24 million in 2003, one of the most rapid demographic growths in the world. On an average, a Saudi woman gives birth to more than 6 children. 97% of the population is Muslim. Practicing other religion except Islam is allowed only in private dwellings and places and the government does not guarantee any right or religious protection to non-Muslims. The religious police called mutawaeen is a tool of a theocratic system based on law and order. Mutawaeen or the Committee for Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice
enjoins practicing any other religion than Islam. A muslim’s conversion to other religion is considered a crime punishable by death in case the accused does not recant. The Saudi government does not allow non-Muslim clergy entering the country for rendering religious services. According to CIA Factbook, the inhabitants of Saudi Arabia are 100% Muslims. According to the State Department of the USA and to “2008 International Report on Religious Freedom” for Saudi Arabia, approximately 90% of Saudi Arabia’s residents are Sunni Muslims who predominantly adopt the government’s interpretation and sanctioning of Islam while 10% of the citizens are Shia Muslims.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
According to the Catholic portal AsiaNews.it, it is estimated that there are more than 1 million Romano-Catholics in Saudi Arabia; most of them are Philippinos working there and who have no Arab citizenship. The percentage of Christians of all confessions among the Philippinos who are 1.2 million in Saudi Arabia exceeds probably 90%. Saudi Arabia allows the Christians to enter the country as foreign workers for temporary jobs and does not allow them to openly practice their faith except only secretly in private houses. Elements and items belonging to other religions than Islam are forbidden (Bibles, crucifixes, statues, sculptures, objects with religious symbols a.s.o.). A second major religion in Saudi Arabia is Christianity, numbering according to estimates of 2015 approximately 1.5 million faithfuls; their great majority are foreign workers coming from Philippines, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and African states such as Ethiopia, Nigeria and Kenya. Except for the mosques, there are no authorized places of worship. Conversion to other religion than Islam is forbidden as well and is punishable by death. Christians and other non-Muslims are not allowed in Mecca and Medina, the holliest places of Islam.
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There are no official churches of any Christian denomination in Saudi Arabia. The Christians in Saudi Arabia gather in chat rooms on the Internet or in private reunions taking place in school sport holls. The Christians coming from abroad may gather at church meetings taking place at one of the embassies after their passports have been checked and holders identified so that the respective persons prove their foreign nationality. The government estimates the number of foreign workers in Saudi Arabia to over 6 million, almost half the population of active life in the Kingdom. Among them there is an elite class made up of physicians, engineers, researchers and managers who are given luxurious residences, ”stratospheric” salaries and two months paid holidays yearly for their jobs in Riyadh, Jeddah or Dhahran. Areas like Al Bahah city which has a surreal appearance with coffee shops and restaurants managed by Afghan chefs, where the barbers and the mechanics are Indians or Turks while the taxicabs are driven by Egyptians and Pakistani belong to the thousands of workers coming from the Third World and who enjoy the jobs so many young Saudis reject. The unemployment rate among Saudis is estimated to be over 15% and reaches 30% among the 20 to 24 years age brackets.
It is quite the same in the EU countries. The unemployment rate among women is 54% as compared to 21% only among men. Every year 340000 Saudi men compete for the 175000 locally available jobs. The discarded ones thicken the lines of the apathetic young who waste their days and nights like tardy teenagers wandering about shopping malls, changing mobile phones and strolling all over the streets. The solution seems obvious: replacing foreign workers with Saudis. In the framework of �Saudization�, the government is trying to do that since the mid of '80s of the last century, namely since more than three decades.
The aim is to replace 60% of foreign labour with local labour in a wide range of jobs from cab drivers to managers. Nevertheless, after three decades of implementing this policy, the foreigners stil counts for more than 90% of the employees of the Saudi private sector. According to Sharia (Islamic law) women are not allowed to drive, cannot walk on the street unaccompanied by a male relative or without veil, cannot travel abroad without a mahram, a male of among her close relatives. Otherwise, she risks a showdown with mutawaeen.
The government grants large loans with no interest to any citizen wishing to start his own business and pays salaries to students opting for a vocational qualification.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
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audi Arabia is divided in 13 provinces subdivided in their turn in 118 governorates; the 13 provincial capitals are considered municipalities (amanah) and are ruled by a mayor (amin). The governorates are divided in sub-governorates or centers (marakiz, markaz at singular). Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy. Succession to the throne is hereditary and the King is descendant of Ibn Saud but elective as well as he is elected by a Committee of Emirs (princes) of the Royal family. As a rule, the eldest son of Ibn Saud is elected.
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The Basic Law adopted in 1992 states that Saudi Arabia is a monarchy ruled by male descendants of the first King, Abd Al Aziz Al Saud (or Abdulaziz Al Saud). Majlis ash-Shura, the Consultative Council was established by King Fahd in 1992 and set in a huge hall of the Royal Palace in Ryiadh. Of the 150 members of the Consultative Council, all Arab citizens appointed by the King for a 4 years period, 77 have a Doctor’s degree or medicine diplomas and 87 graduated prized western universities. And, astonishingly for Saudi Arabia, 12 members only have religious studies.
ON GOvERNANCE
For the time being, Shura’s members are appointed by the King and some observers see it as a predecessor to an elected legislative body which will share the power with the Monarchy at a certain moment. The number of the members of the Consultative Council increased constantly over the years; the Council has its own committees and a limited capacity of discussing proposed legislation as its main role is to advise the King. The Royal audiences are granted by all the Emirs members of the Consultative Council. Anyone can take part and it is not strange at all that a Beduin camels shepherd complaining of the pasture place
be received before a real estate tycoon seeking a building licence. In both cases, the Emir listens attentively and then hands over the issue to one of his aides-de-camp attending the meeting in the majlis. Outside the palace walls, such meetings are never ending. The Royal majlis resembles the ones held in the old Bedouin tents. Men were gathering there for sipping an Arabic coee, eating dates and having ginger tea. On October 20th, 2006 the committee of Princes (Emirs) was established and appointed to vote for the eligibility of future Kings and crown princes.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
The committee includes the most important sons and nephews of King Abdul Aziz. King’s powers are limited in theory by Sharia and by other Saudi traditions. The King should as well preserve a consensus of the Royal family on the religious leaders (ulema) and on other important elements of the Arab society. No political parties or trade unions are allowed in Saudi Arabia. In 2013, the government expelled thousands of non-Saudis, many of them working illegally in the country or holding expired residence visas. Saudi Arabia has a ”Program against Radicalization”, aimed at ”preventing the spread of extremist ideologies to the population” and to ”instil the true values of the Islamic faith such as tolerance and moderation”. Even if it has an area 14.5 times bigger than Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia has a population six times smaller that Banladesh’s. 80% of Saudis live in towns. In an endeavour to diversify its economy, Saudi Arabia is building ”six economic cities”; the cities could bring a 150 billion dollars a year contribution to the country’s GDP.
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THE ECONOMY
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audi Arabia has an oil based economy generating 45% of the country’s GDP and the government keeps a tight control on the main economic activities. Saudi Arabia has 25% of the world’s known oil reserves and that makes the Royal family very rich and influential. To the revenues resulted from oil and oil dervatives exports (90% of its exports) the revenues of its exports of the rich resources of natural gas are added.
Dammam is the main exploitation center of the rich oil fields the country has. The economy is based on oil exploitation and, more recently, on oil processing. Saudi Arabia is a typical example of a country that witnessed a substantial economic development as a result of capitalizing on its fuel resources in great demand on the global markets. Currently, more than a third of its oil production is off-shore based.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
In parallel it developed its own petrochemical industry and the platform of oil processing in Dhahran is the biggest in the world. Saudi Arabia has other industries too: ferrous and non-ferrous metal industry (aluminium), machine building industry, electronics, building materials, textiles etc.As it is poor in water resources, Saudi Arabia developed the most powerful industry of water desalination in the world. The water resulted covers more than two thirds of country’s needs while the salt is used as raw material for the chemical industry. The agriculture which was traditionally based on nomadic animal breeding diversified as a result of irrigations while crop culture got a bigger share; for instance, from a former net importer of cereals, Saudi Arabia became a cereal exporter. Date palm cultures have an important role as well. Horned animal (sheep and goats) and camels breeding is prevalent in zootechnics. Saudi Arabia has one of the most modern transportation networks on the Asian continent. We mention here the modern highways network and airports (Riyadh, Jeddah and Mecca) and the oil terminals at Ras Tannurah on the Persian Gulf, the biggest in the world, and Yanbu, on the Red Sea.
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It has also huge pipelines carrying the oil to the Mediterranean Sea and to the Red Sea from where it is transported by tankers to Europe and in particular to North America. Saudi Arabia underwent during the last 8 decades more changes than did the tribes it comprises during the 13 centuries before. Until 1950, Riyadh was still a sleepy oasis of 60000 inhabitants, most of them living in adobe houses. The oil boom of mid '70s withessed a construction wave unprecedented in the Middle East. According to the estimates of the officials of the Authority for Urban Development, Riyadh has now around 5 million inhabitants and became a megalopolis of the Arab World. On April 25th, 2016 Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Deputy Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia who is in charge this year with the country’s economy presented Saudi Vision 2030, an ambitious project for the Kingdom’s future. The program provides for transforming Saudi Arabia from a more than 70% dependent state on oil sales and quotations into a nation where certain sectors of the economy will be privatized (airports, health and education systems) and where state subsidies (water and electricity) will be diminished.
Another source of revenues would be listing 5% of the assets of the national oil and gas company, Saudi Aramco on international stock exchanges. New taxes and duties will be levied on refreshment beverages, luxury items and undeveloped real estates. All social measures of the reform and those related to economic rights are aimed mainly at the Saudi young generation as Riyadh hopes thus to win their confidence in a better future for their country. Oil granted Saudi Arabia during time economic prosperity and a substantial regional and international political influence.
Immediately after the Bretton Woods Conference the United States secured its oil imports from the Kingdom and offered in exchange to the Saudi Kingdom the safety of military protection. There was always a confrontation in the Gulf area for securing regional supremacy between the Sunni monarchy in Riyadh and the Islamic (Shia) Republic in Tehran. The “Arab spring” brought yet a series of reconfigurations of the strategic positions in the area and determined new regional dynamics. All the players in the area are struggling under different forms, even through oil supply to secure an as better as possible position within the new power configuration.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
In 2013 Iran was seen as a threat to the Gulf region. In that framework, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were to purchase from the USA weapons and ammunition worth 10.8 billion dollars. The announcement came from the Pentagon. The sale of the weapons “will contribute to the national and international security of the United States” as it will contribute to strengthening the security of friendly countries (which are) poles of stability in the Gulf area” the Pentagon emphasized at the time in its press releases. In the meantime, the USA adapted its policy to the changes taking place in the Gulf area and found out that shale processing is a quicker process when compared to oil drilling and developed its shale oil production to 4.5 million bpd according to PIRA Energy Group. As the oil quotations decreased from 115 UD dollars to 80 US dollars per barrel during June-November 2014, many of the oil producing companies in the world hoped OPEC will intervene for fixing the situation. Through a collective reduction of their output the Organization members would have brought about a balance on the oil market and determined a stimulus for the price increase. Nevertheles, Saudi Arabia which dominated historically the Gulf region had some other
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considerable Saudi Arabia’s oil share on world’s markets. Saudi Arabia’s oil production increased by 660000 bpd until March 2015 and the oil quotations decreased further reaching the level of 45 dollars per barrel. Iran’s oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh declared in November 2015 that the decision "is not in line with what we wished for". OPEC’s decision and the USA’s increase of shale oil production to the highest level of the last decades brought a surplus on the market. The oil reached a minimum of 27 dollars per barrel in January 2016 but lately the international quotations increased to around 45 dollars after the February 2016 agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela for ”freezing” the output at January’s level, as Reuters’ communiques claims. That was the first concrete cooperation concerning the output levels among OPEC’s member states and those outside OPEC during the last 15 years. Besides, many other big oil producers outside the OPEC announced their participation (Kazakhstan, Azerbaidjan, Oman or Bahrain). According to adevarulfinanciar.ro, although everybody agreed to freeze the output, Russia pumped 10.91 mbd in March, the highest level of the last 30 years and Iraq, the second OPEC producer, drilled daily 4.55 mpd in March as compared to 4.46 mbp in February.
After Irans’s economic sanctions for its nuclear program were lifted in January, the country intents to reach the 4 mbd level it was pumping before the oil embargo. As a result of these developments, Prince Mohammed bin Salman who is in charge with the economic activity of the state declared that his country can increase immediately the production to 12.5 bpd and that it can even reach 20 billion bpd. Saudi Arabia’s output was 10.2 mbd in April this year and, if we add the associated gas or other hidrocarbons then the real extraction was 11.5 mbd.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are deeply entrenched in a geopolitical struggle as the two sides are supporting hostile forces in the Syrian and the Yemeni conflicts. Tehran assists the president Bashar al-Assad in Siria while the Saudis back up the ”moderate” rebels. In Yemen, Riyadh helps president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi while Iran is allied with the Houthis who occupied great part of the country. Moreover, the two countries were at loggerheads few months ago after Saudi Arabia executed an influential Shia cleric and its embassy in Tehran was vandalized by a mob as a result of the cleric’s execution. During that time the oil price was kept at over 40 dolars a barrel as a result of the strike in Kuwait. Kuwait’s oil output before the strike was 3 mbd. According to the same source, Kuwait intends to raise its output up to 4 mbd by 2020 and the United Arab Emirates seek an increase of its output from 3 to 3.5 mbd by 2017.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
A R A M C O ’ S AvATA R S
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audi Arabia revenues from its oil exports amounted to 285 billion dollars in 2014. Oil quotations dwindled to 30 dollars a barrel in 2015 and as a result the ”Oil Kingdom” needs money. At the times when oil prices exceeded 100 US dollars a barrel, Riyadh’s budged was cashing in more than 900 billion Saudi riyals a year (the equivalent of 240 billion dollars). Now, with oil prices unlikely to rise above 50 dollars per barrel during the next few years, the Kingdom may expect to cash in half of that amount. Its yearly expenses are much more than this amount; in 2014, the expenses reached almost 1,1 trillion riyals. If oil prices continue to hoover around 40 dollars a barrel, Saudi Arabia will have the same expenses so the budget deficit will be of around 150 billion dollars every year according to Reuters.
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Saudi Arabian Oil Co (Aramco), the biggest oil producer in the world controlled by the Saudi state studied a possible listing on the stock exchange through IPO as the company’s value estimated by the analysts ranges between 1000 and 10000 thousands billion dollars. The company’s value is extremely difficult to assess and that makes it the world’s most valuable company according to Jason Tuvey, analyst of Capital Economics research company. Danilo Onorino, portfolio manager of Dogma Capital investment office in Lugano assessed Aramco at 2500 billion dollars based on the company’s oil reserves and counting it at only 10 dollars a barrel... It is considered that up to 5% of Saudi Aramco shares be privatized through a local company which is to remain a state oil company. The remaining Aramco’s shares will be transferred to a public investment fund to be established according to the model of the Norwegian Sovereign Investment Fund.
L E S S E R k N O w N fA C T S
Business Insider presented 12 novel facts about Saudi Arabia : The camels market. Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia is a large camels market. Approximately 100 camels are sold there every day. Around 80% of labor force of Saudi Arabia comes from abroad. Saudi Arabia’s labor force is 8.4 million – but 80% or around 6 million people come from other countries. Many of them ar working in the oil sector. Ghawar oil area has oil reserves for filling in 4.7 million Olympic pools. Ghawar oil area of Saudi Arabia is the world’s vastest such area. It has oil reserves of 75 billion barrels.
The yearly military expenditures are three times bigger than Afghanistan’s GDP (which reached 21 billion dollars in 2013). Saudi Arabia spent on military in 2013 67 billion dollars, an increase of 14% compared to 2012. Saudi Arabia is globally on the fourth place in this field after the USA, China and Russia. Saudi Arabia is six times bigger than Germany, but almost all its territory is a desert. Saudi Arabia is the 13st biggest country in the world and the second among Arab countries, after Algeria. Yet 95% of its territory is considered to be desert or semi-desert. 1,45% only of its land is arable. The highest tower in the world. Saudi Arabia is building Kingdom Tower, which will be the highest tower in the world in 2018. It will be one kilometer high. China intends too to build an one kilometer high building. Building Kingdom Tower will cost 1.23 billion dollars.
Saudi Arabia is the only country in the world where the women are not allowed to drive a car. There isn’t any written interdiction banning women from driving a car in the conservative Islamic state but the law requests the citizens to use a licence issued locally. Such licences are not issued to women making actually illegal for a woman to drive a car. Young population. 47% of Saudi Arabia’s population is under 24. More than a quarter of Saudi Arabia’s population is under 14. Health budget represents 3.7% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Pilgrims. Hundreds of thousands of Muslims go to Mecca for the Muslim pilgrimage – Hadj - one of the five pillars of Islamic faith. In 2012, around 3.16 million people paricipated at the Muslim pilgrimage and almost 1.7 million of them came from outside Saudi Arabia.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
THE REvEALED SECRET Of AMERICAN BONDS
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he US Department of Treasury published recently Saudi Arabia’s holdings of American debt ending a long term blackout policy of such figures . So the holdings of the world biggest oil exporter of American Treasury bonds amounted to 116.8 billion dollars in March 2016 from 82.7 billion dollars in March 2015, representing 20% of Saudi Arabia’s currency reserves of 587 billion dollars. The Kingdom is among the biggest foreign holders of American bonds. China holds 1200 billion dollars worth of American bonds, Japan 1100 billion dollars and Saudi Arabia – 117 billion dollars on the 13400 billion dollars of American Treasury bonds. Now the issue of the Saudi monarchy holdings is of greater importance as the Kingdom feels fiscal pressures as a result of oil price slump and of costly wars in the Middle East. In 2015 only Saudi Arabia withdrew 16% of its currency reserves to cover its biggest budget deficit of the last quarter of century.
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E D U C AT I O N A N D C U LT U R E
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he education system of the Kingdom is not up to the demands of the modern industry: „The companies coming here need qualified workers, graduates of economic studies, engineers and technicians“ – explains Nasser Salih al-Homoud, manager of a recruiting company in Buraydah, a quiet settlement of farmers in central Saudi Arabia with 350000 residents but few qualified Saudis. One of his clients is Abdulrahman al-Ali, a 25 years old. ”I am trying since one year to find a job“ – he says. His problem resides in his studies: as many other young Saudis he graduated Islamic philosophy. Saudi Arabia remained extreemely conservative from VIIth century A.D. to the XXIst century. The stakes are enormous as Saudi Arabia is not only a traditionalist country confronted with changes.
Having the two Holy places of Islam, Mecca and Medina it is the custodian of Islam and the spiritual home of the 1.3 billion Muslims of the world. Hadj is the annual pilgrimage that means for the Muslims fulfilling a lifelong spiritual end. It attracts every year more than 2 million people in Mecca and Medina. Many pilgrims are Saudis or Arabs of the Persian Gulf. Among them there are groups of Indonesians and Malaysians, Algerians and Morrocans, Senegaleses and Nigerians, Somalis, Uzbekhs, Pakistanis and Bengalis, Turks displaying red crescent flags printed on their shirts, Chinese with yellow jackets with slogans of tourism companies of Xinjiang. Satelite TV is technically illegal in Saudi Arabia but it is very popular so satelite antennas are omnipresent on the roofs of the Saudi towns.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
kINGDOM’S OUTLOOk BY 2030
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audi Arabia posted a Strategy by 2030 according to like examples of the Kingdom of Bahrein (it posted a like vision in 2008) and Abu Dhabi Emirate (in 2009), both strategies reasoned by the respective Crown Princes who wanted to associate themserves with the strictly necessary economic transformations their countries have to undergo now, at the beginning of the millenium. Saudi Arabia’s Vision for 2030 was launched at the beginning of May by Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, the Chairman of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs and comprises an ”ambitious new repackaging of different Gulf countries’ policies which were developed over the years” . Most of the policies are not new and
reflect the long term direction of the economic reform which must be reasoned and implemented by the new generation of politicians who are at the helm of the Kingdom. A new tendency necessary to be carried out is that non-Arab workers could obtain transitional green cards for permanent residence in the Kingdom for ending the current system of subsidising the Arab population with state funds, a system that facilitated a lot of abuses of human rights. Bahrain Emirate lifted technically its sponsorship system” of the Arab population but gradually phasing out the abusive working practices is a process on a much longer term. The change would be welcome in the Arab World and would be a positive result for concentrating the Saudi power in the region and for the flexibility of the work force at the place of residence.
SAUDI ARABIA AND THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
The ambitious tourism objective of increasing five times the number of visitors, to 30 million by 2030 is also promoted based on a strategy already developed by another son of the King for encouraging the religious pilgrims to travel more, on a large scale, in the entire country. The abovementioned measures are part of a wider plan for increasing the role the private sector plays including the privatization of state goods and services meant to attract more talents, visitors and investment the way the United Arab Emirates and other Arab stated did already long ago. Now, and for the first time in Saudi Arabia, such measures are promoted by a leader who is at the same time a member of the Royal family and very young, Prince Mohammed bin Salman who is part of the generation which will face during its lifetime the post-petroleum journey.
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Previously, such policies were usually communicated by senior technocrats such as the specialists of the Investment Authority or the ministers of Finance, Economy or Industry of the Kingdom Government. The ambitions of diversifying the economy and developing the private sector are not new in Saudi Arabia. There are four reasons for implementing the said strategy: a) the proposed initiatives were not yet correlated within the government; b) the government didn’t assumed the legitimate interests of the traditional commercial and business elite of the Royal family, namely persons who want to maintain the status-quo i.e. a business model adicted to cheap energy, cheap labor and endorsed by the Government’s patronage which is essential for accessing land property contracts and obtaining working or other licences necesarry in an economy under Royal House’s complete control;
c) the public at large expects traditionally to get state benefits such as jobs heavily subsidized in the public and services sectors; d) oil price slump of the last two years lead to phasing out or to putting brakes to important parts of planned reforms’ Prince Mohammed bin Salman trusts this Strategy and has the public support of his father. Thus, the changes in the economic relations, the changes between citizens and state will inevitably alter the level of political relations. The young population should be better and better educated and connected globally and with economic expectations exceeding the chances of getting a job only. The traditional social contract is under pressure and should be reinvented.
CONCLUSIONS
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY
In the opinion of analyst Frank Viviano, ”Saudi Arabia is now the center of a cultural and geopolitical tumult. What happens with the Saudis made rich by petrol and who are struggling with their own confusions at the very heart of Islam worries the entire world”. One dreams in the Kingdom of a new golden age in which any conflict – between past and future, between mutawaeen and the mobile phone, between the Prophet’s VIIth century and the rapidly changing world of the Muslims of today will be reconciled. The result of this reconcilliation will decide Saudi Arabia’s fate and, very possibly, the very future of Islamism in this world
Al-Rasheed, Madawi, A History of Saudi Arabia, 2010, ISBN 978-0521-74854-7 Cookson, Catharine, Encyclopedia of Religious Freedom, Taylor & Francis Editions, 2003, p. 207, ISBN 0-415-94181-4 Long, David E., Culture and Customs of Saudi Arabia, 2005 ISBN 978-0-313-32021-7 Otto, Jan Michiel (2010). Sharia Incorporated: A Comparative Overview of the Legal Systems of Twelve Muslim Countries in Past and Present. 2010, ISBN 978-908728-057-4
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“The society that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting by fools� Thucydides
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