Findings from the Statistical Audit

Overview of the Mid and East Antrim labour market

Despite being a highly rural and second least populated Local Government District in Northern Ireland (139,443 residents), MEA is the fifth most economically active council area in Northern Ireland with over 74% of the working population actively contributing to a successful local economy1 .

The region is home to over five thousand registered businesses, with 98.7% of these being local, indigenous SMEs. The MEA economy is estimated to be worth over £2bn (GVA) with manufacturing, agriculture, retail, and social care being four of its key employment sectors.

Figure 5 below illustrates the profile of MEA’s working age population.

Source: NISRA, Food for Thought bespoke data request, 2020

Figure 5: MEA’s Working Age Population Profile

Employability challenges

Unemployment in the region is relatively low at 2.3%, although Covid-19 has had an impact and has caused an increase in job benefit claimants in the last two years.

Over one quarter (25.6%) of the adult working age population are economically inactive, with almost a third of that figure relating to the students living in the region (6,000 people).

Health and disability is the most significant cause of economic inactivity in the region – excluding students, this group represents 47% of the economically inactive (estimated 7,000 people).

Family caring commitments and early retirees make up a further 40% of the economically inactive (excluding students).

Job claimants

Similar to many other Council regions, Covid-19 caused a significant spike in job benefit claimants in early 2020, when the claimant numbers rose from a pre-Covid baseline of 2,380 to a peak of 4,235 in May 2020 – a 78% increase.

Source: NISRA, Claimant Count Monthly Data

Figure 6: MEA Job Claimant numbers

The ending of the Furlough scheme in September 2021 had no negative impact on employment and claimant numbers have fallen on a gradual basis over the past 18 months.

However, despite a reported high number of unfilled job vacancies and strong employer demand for workers in MEA, the claimant numbers have remained persistently high at some 30% above pre-Covid levels, with an additional 700 claims being made.

The Executive’s policy decision not to enforce Universal Credit conditionality requirements is suspected as a key factor influencing this trend, and although conditionality rules were reinstated in December 2021, it remains the case that full enforcement procedures have yet to be applied.

Addressing this persistently elevated job claimant number will be a priority focus point for MEA LMP’s 2022/23 Action Plan.

Qualification achievements

Percentage of residents aged 16 - 64 with no qualifications

Figure 7 shows a clear correlation between the level of economic activity in a given Council region, and the percentage of working age residents with no qualifications. MEA is Northern Ireland’s best performing Council region in relation to the percentage of residents with no qualifications, with only 6.1% of the working age population holding no formal qualifications2 .

Source: NISRA, Labour Force Survey, 2020

Figure 7: Correlation of economic activity and % no qualifications

In consideration of higher qualifications, it could be argued that MEA over-indexes on the percentage of residents achieving below NVQ level 4 and at the expense of the percentage of residents holding higher qualifications (see figures 8a, and 8b respectively).

Source: NISRA, Labour Force Survey, 2020 Figure 8a: Below NVQ level 4

Source: NISRA, Labour Force Survey, 2020 Figure 8b: Level 4 and above

The above statistics would support a view that investment in upskilling could help drive improved economic activity and lead to MEA residents achieving higher paid, better quality jobs.

Better quality jobs

With regard to median full time pay rates, MEA ranks as one of the lowest paid regions in Northern Ireland, second only to Causeway Coast and Glens.

Figure 9: Median pay rates by Council (Source: NISRA 2018)

Pay rates in the region have shown very little growth over time, with the Newsletter recently reporting the region had one of the UK’s slowest salary increases with a rise of just 14% since 20143 .

Figure 10 shows that over the last four years, MEA median pay rates have barely increased (0.2%), whilst Northern Ireland median pay has grown by almost ten and a half percent during the same period.

Source: NISRA, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2020

Figure 10: MEA Median Full Time Pay

This differential rate of change in pay rates is leading to a growing MEA pay gap relative to the Northern Ireland median.

3 https://www.newsletter.co.uk/business/mid-east-antrim-among-worst-in-uk-for-pay-rises-similar-to-scottish-isles-3325544

Source: Food for Thought analysis: NISRA, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2020

Figure 11: MEA’s growing pay gap

It will be important for MEA’s LMP Action Plan to support investment in new and emerging sectors that are likely to generate better quality, higher paid jobs (e.g. Clean energy and hydrogen economy technologies).

Recent trends in MEA economic inactivity

MEA has suffered a number of significant economic shocks in recent years as a consequence of closures and redundancies in its manufacturing sector, including Michelin (2015), JTI (2015), and Wrightbus (2019). Despite these events, in the years prior to Covid-19 the region had made significant improvement in a reduction of economic inactivity, with rates falling by 2.3% from a recent peak of 26.2% to 23.9% in 2019.

However, as Figure 12 shows, the Covid-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on economic inactivity in the region, largely reversing recent progress and causing a 1.7% adverse change from 2019 to 2020.

Source: NISRA, Labour Force Survey

Figure 12: MEA economic inactivity rates

Previously ranked as the fourth most economically active region, MEA now ranks in fifth place - largely as a consequence of Covid-19 albeit the region remains 1.4% better than the Northern Ireland average.

Figure 13: Economic inactivity by LGD

Reversing the negative impact of Covid-19 will be a key objective for the MEA LMP Action Plan.

Economic Activity Gender Gap

An analysis of MEA economic activity by gender shows a growing gender gap driven by a steady decrease in female economic participation over time.

Source: NISRA, Labour Force Annual Report

Figure 14: MEA’s growing economic activity gender gap

As at 2020, the gender gap stood at 12.9%, which is significantly higher than the Northern Ireland average of 9%.

Whilst the growth in the gender gap levelled off between 2019 and 2020, this was driven by a reduction in male economic activity – female economic activity continues in a downward trend at a year-on-year rate of -1.7%.

The 2022/23 Action Plan provides an opportunity for the MEA LMP to turn the curve on this trend by investing in targeted initiatives that encourage women to return to work.

Disability Employment Gap

This review has conducted an analysis of the Disability Employment Gap across the eleven council regions – calculated as the difference in employment rates for those individuals with a recorded disability, compared to those with none.

Figure 15 shows that MEA is one of the highest performing regions in Northern Ireland, with the third smallest Disability Employment Gap of any Council at 36.3%.

Source: NISRA, Labour Market Status, 2020

Figure 15: MEA’s disability employment gap

MEA has clearly been successful with a range of existing programmes to support the employability status of people with disabilities, including:

• Stride - a programme delivered by USEL designed to help people living with a disability or health-related condition who are out of work move towards employment or further education;

• Verve - a training and employment programme delivered by the NOW

Group that is open to anyone over 16 who has a learning difficulty, learning disability, autism or associated health condition and would like support in gaining employment.

Although MEA currently enjoys a strong performance relative to other council regions in Northern Ireland, it is recognised that a significant gap (8.4%) continues to exist to the UK average, and MEA will seek to ensure inclusive programmes are designed that provide opportunity for all, with ring-fenced provisions made for those with a disability or suffering from long term illness.