The Future of Work: Special Collection of Essays for the IMF Annual Meetings

D IPL O MAT ICO UR IE R .co m

A Global Affairs Media Network

THE FUTURE OF WORK A SPECIAL COLLECTION OF ESSAYS FOR THE IMF ANNUAL MEETINGS

THE FUTURE OF WORK ANA C. ROLD EDITOR

in collaboration with

A Global Affairs Media Network

Masthead Publishing house Medauras Global publisher & ceo Ana C. Rold Editorial Advisors Andrew M. Beato Sir Ian Forbes Lisa Gable Mary D. Kane Greg Lebedev Anita McBride Creative Director Christian Gilliham director of social media Madeline Terry un correspondent Akshan de Alwis DC Correspondent Jacqueline Christ DC EDITORS Michael Kofman Bailey Piazza Winona Roylance

Edition CONTRIBUTORS Stacie Nevadomski Berdan Fumbi Chima Scott Hartley Daniella Foster Saul Garlick Kristin Greene Allan Goodman Kris Gopalakrishnan Julie Kantor Margery Kraus Andrew Mack Lauren Maffeo Molly McCluskey Carol O’Donnell Bailey Piazza Ana C. Rold Cheryl-Anne Smith Mauricio Soto Constance St.Germain Lucian Tarnowski Arun Sundararajan Diane Whitehead Sharon Witherell

EDITORIAL ASSISTANTS Samantha Stafford Jacqueline Christ DC photographers Michelle Guillermin Sebastian Rich DC CONTRIBUTORS C. Naseer Ahmad Charles Crawford Madeline Bielski Justin Goldman Sarah Jones Arun S. Nair Uju Okoye Bailey Piazza Richard Rousseau Mary Utermohlen Erika Veberyte Download our Free Apps

PUBLISHING. Diplomatic Courier magazine is produced by Medauras Global LLC, an independent private publishing firm. The magazine is printed six times a year and publishes a blog and online commentary weekly at www.diplomaticourier.com.

PRINT. Print issues of Diplomatic Courier average 80-100 pages in length. Individual and back issues cost $10.00 per issue (plus S&H). Student rates are available to both part-time and full-time students with proof of school enrollment. New print issues of Diplomatic Courier are published and mailed in January, March, May, July, September, and November. Subscriptions commence with the next issue.

EDITORIAL. The articles in Diplomatic Courier both in print and online represent the views of their authors and do not reflect those of the editors and the publishers. While the editors assume responsibility for the selection, the authors are responsible for the facts and interpretations of their articles.

PERMISSIONS. Authors retain all copyrights to their articles. None of the articles can be reproduced without their permission and that of the publishers. For permissions please email info@medauras.com with your written request.

ISSN. The Library of Congress has assigned: ISSN 2161-7260 (Print); ISSN 2161-7287 (Online). ISBN: 978-1-942772-01-9 (Print); 978-1-942772-02 (Online).

LEGAL. Copyright Š2006-2017 Diplomatic Courier and Medauras Global. All rights reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced without written consent of the publishers. All trademarks that appear in this publication are the property of the respective owners. Any and all companies featured in this publication are contacted by Medauras Global and the Diplomatic Courier to provide advertising and/or services.

Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of information in this publication, however, Medauras Global and the Diplomatic Courier magazine make no warranties, express or implied in regards to the information, and disclaim all liability for any loss, damages, errors, or omissions.

CONTACT. Mailing Address: Diplomatic Courier, 1660 L Street, NW, Suite 501, Washington, DC 20036, United States. Fax: 202-659-5234. E-mail: editors@diplomaticourier.org.

ART/PHOTOGRAPHY/ILLUSTRATIONS. In order of appearance: Cover Photo by Bigstockphoto; page 3, logos by the International Monetary Fund; page 8, by Jeremy Perkins; pages 10-13 and page 18, charts by IMF; page 32, by Chuttersnap; page 40, by James Pond; page 48, by Baim Hanif; page 52, by Joshua Sortino; page 68, by Aman Bhargava; page 90, by Kamesh Vedula; page 120; by Geran de Klerk. All other images and photos by Bigstockphotos.com.

MEDAURAS GLOBAL PUBLISHING WASHINGTON, DC

Contents 009 I

The Future of Work

By: Arun Sundararajan

017 I

Pension Shock

020 I

Global Talent: The Role of Primary and Secondary Teachers and Leaders in Developing a Competitive STEM Workforce

By: Mauricio Soto

By: Carol O’Donnell

029 I

The Economic, Social, and Political Dimension of the Post-Employment World

By: Winonal Roylance

033 I

Employees Without Borders: Understanding the Impact of Migration on the Workplace

037 I

Youth Unemployment and the Role of Entrepreneurship

041 I

Tapping Into the Global Generational Talent Pool

045 I

How Robots Are Transforming the Way We Work

049 I

IT’s Next Top Job Won’t Be Done by Developers

053 I

Tomorrow’s Global Workers Need Global Education Today

057 I

How the Digital Enlightenment Has Created a New Era of Talentism

060 I

Employment Remains Elusive for Resettled Refugees

064 I

The Graveyard of Employment and the Future of Jobs

069 I

Emerging Technologies Will Achieve Employment Equity For People with Disabilities

073 I

The Need for Liberal Arts in the Post-Employment World

By: Ana C. Rold

By: Kris Gopalakrishnan By: Cheryl-Anne Smith By: Ana C. Rold

By: Lauren Maffeo

By: Stacie Nevadomski Berdan

By: Lucian Tarnowski By: Molly McCluskey By: Bailey Piazza

By: Lauren Maffeo

By: Constance St.Germain

06

Contents 077 I

Creating Tomorrow’s Talent: Transporting Human Potential

081 I

The Future of Talent: Understanding What Drives Generation Z

085 I

Bridging the Global Skills Divide to Develop a Workforce for the Future

By: Saul Garlick

By: Ana C. Rold

By: Allan Goodman & Sharon Witherell

089 I

How to Build a Stronger Global STEM Talent Marketplace

094 I

Is Universal Basic Income the Answer to Automation?

096 I

The Connection Between International Experiences and Employability

099 I

Talent Mobility for the 21st Century

103 I

The Future of Microfranchising

109 I

Value of Technology for Girls in Emerging Markets

By: Ana C. Rold

By: Bailey Piazza

By: Kristin Greene

By: Kris Gopalakrishnan By: Andrew Mack By: Fumbi Chima

113 I Education Diplomacy: A Way Forward for Workforce Development By: Diane Whitehead

117 I

When a Passport Teaches More Than a Diploma

By: Whitney Grespin

121 I

Want to Keep Your Millennials? Mentor Them

124 I

How Boomers Can Mentor Millennials

127 I

Learning Should Be More Like Angry Birds

130 I

How Millennials Are Disrupting the Workforce

By: Julie Kantor & Bridget McKeogh By: Margery Kraus By: Ana C. Rold

By: Daniella Foster

07

THE FUTURE OF WORK THE DIGITAL ECONOMY WILL SHARPLY ERODE THE TRADITIONAL EMPLOYER-EMPLOYEE RELATIONSHIP By: Arun Sundararajan

F

or today’s youth, the future of work may be more uncertain than ever. The confluence of two digital forces will dramatically reshape tomorrow’s workplace, leading to a sharp reduction in the traditional employeremployee relationship. New platforms allow economic activity to be organized in ways that shift much of what was traditionally accomplished by full-time workers within an organization to a crowd of individual entrepreneurs and on-demand workers. The result is an economy that increasingly relies on short-term freelance relationships rather than on full-time employment.

At the same time, artificial intelligence and robotics-enabled technologies are getting increasingly better at the cognitive and physical tasks that comprise much of today’s work, presaging the automation of complex human activities like driving a vehicle or managing a project and disrupting a range of occupations that include law, consulting, retailing, and transportation.

The confluence of these two factors leads to a labor market in which full-time jobs may be broken up into tasks and projects. This will make it easier to substitute capital in the form of automation technologies for human labor and talent, a trend that will be reinforced by the diminishing power of labor unions.

Society and government will have to keep pace with these changes in work arrangements. To avoid further increases in the income and wealth inequality that stem from the sustained concentration of capital over the past 50 years, we must aim for a future of crowd-based capitalism in which most of the workforce shifts from a full-time job as a talent or labor provider to running a business of one—in effect a microentrepreneur who owns a tiny slice of society’s capital.

As fewer people earn a living in the way now considered traditional and many, if not most, face changes several times during their careers, the emphasis of education must also shift (see “Education for Life,” in this issue of F&D). Instead of focusing primarily on two- or four-year postsecondary institutions that educate 09

early in life, as we did in the 20th century, society must create robust educational institutions that help workers make midcareer transitions. Moreover, the largely employer-funded portion of the social safety net—which often includes medical insurance, paid vacation time, workplace insurance, retirement contributions, and predictable salaries that stabilize earnings—must be rethought in an era of greater individual entrepreneurship.

Several studies over the past two years have documented a rise in the nonemployment labor force: people who derive their primary or supplemental income from freelance arrangements. Estimates of the total number of such independent workers in the United States range from 40 million to 68 million (see Chart 1). The variation reflects different definitions and methods; nevertheless, both the high and low estimates demonstrate that independent workers represent a significant fraction of the country’s civilian labor force of 160 million people.

The tendency to pursue nonemployment work is more pronounced among younger people. For example, 40 percent of independent workers who make their primary income this way are millennials, compared with about a third of the overall civilian workforce, according to a survey by MBO Partners.

The emergence of numerous digital platforms that facilitate earning nonemployment income is likely to accelerate this trend. Many of these platforms commercialize personal assets by putting them to more productive use. These include transportation platforms (like Uber and Lyft in the United States, Didi Chuxing in China, BlaBlaCar in France, Ola in India, and Grab in southeast Asia); those like Airbnb that enable individuals (over 3 million at the end of 2016) to run a commercial short-term accommodation business in their home, and peerto-peer car rental platforms like Drivy in Europe and Getaround in the United States.

10

They also include a growing number of on-demand and freelance labor platforms like Upwork, which operates globally and has more than 12 million registered freelancers offering skills ranging from administration and customer service to web development and accounting; country-specific platforms like CrowdWorks in Japan (over a million workers) and Giraffe in South Africa; and sector-specific professional labor platforms like Catalant for management consulting, Gigster for high-end software development, and UpCounsel for legal services.

A November 2016 JPMorgan Chase Institute study documents the change: at the end of 2013 about 0.5 percent of US adults had earned nonemployment income via such platforms; by mid-2016, that number had grown to 4 percent. Although there are no comparable global estimates, an October 2016 study by the McKinsey Global Institute documented a similar percentage: about 4 percent across France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Nonemployment work arrangements will expand further in coming years as sector-specific professional labor platforms proliferate, possibly taking full-time jobs out of companies and converting them into sets of projects or tasks. That will shift the source of commercial trust toward digital systems and increase the role for new enterprise software from companies like WorkMarket and SAP that manage complex on-demand task-based workflows.

Concerns about this on-demand technological onslaught on full-time employment are exacerbated by growing worries about labor automation made possible by advances in artificial intelligence and robotics. Of course, fears of technological unemployment are hardly new. In the so-called Luddite labor riots between 1811 and 1816 in Britain, textile workers destroyed weaving machinery they believed would replace their role in production.

A report titled “Technology and the American Economy,” prepared for the US president by the National Commission on Technology, Automation and Economic Progress, voiced similar concerns: “The fear has even been expressed by some that technological change would in the near future not only cause increasingly unemployment, but that eventually it would eliminate all but a few jobs, with the major portion of what we now call work being performed automatically by machine.”

This report was not prepared for President Barack Obama in 2016. Rather, it was presented to President Lyndon Johnson 50 years earlier. And although exaggerated in its prognosis, it was accurate about the long-term source of manufacturing job losses. Although US manufacturing employment continued to rise in the decade following this report, peaking at close to 20 million jobs in the late 1970s, it began to fall soon after.

Manufacturing jobs represented 22 percent of nonfarm payroll employment in 1977. In contrast, the 12 million manufacturing jobs today account for less than 10 11

percent of nonfarm payrolls. Although it is difficult to precisely disentangle trade effects from those of technological change, many believe that those US manufacturing job losses over the past 15 years reflect factory automation more than companies shifting production to low-cost foreign operations. In fact, even as jobs were declining, US manufacturing output was growing. As robotics technologies continue to improve, automation may be even more ominous for China, where urban manufacturing employment was at a massive 80 million in 2014, a level bound to drop steeply in coming decades.

Perhaps what strikes greater fear than manufacturing automation among today’s youth is the specter of the “second machine age” predicted by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee in their 2014 book, in which technologies start to perform the cognitive tasks once the exclusive domain of humans. IBM’s Watson technology promises artificial-intelligence-powered solutions for financial compliance, medical diagnostics, and legal services. Self-checkout counters at a growing number of retail stores already replace cashiers. Self-driving automobile technologies seem poised to threaten tens of millions of trucking jobs globally. These professions span the expertise spectrum, which portends a slowing or perhaps even reversal of wage increases for high-skill work that have accompanied skill-biased technical change in past decades. Furthermore, many worry that if machines go beyond automating physical labor and start to absorb the demand for cognitive capabilities as well, little will be left for humans to do.

A glance at the history of job displacement from automation provides some context and reassurance. As farming was steadily mechanized in the United States, the share of the workforce employed in agriculture fell from 41 percent in 1900 to less than 2 percent in 2000. Yet the specter of economy-wide unemployment did not materialize. Rather, progress in the underlying technologies themselves spawned new industries. As David Autor pointed out in a 2015 article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, as passenger cars displaced equestrian travel and its supporting industries, the automobile industry emerged—along with highways, gas stations, the roadside motel, and fast-food outlets. The broader point is that even as old industries shrink or disappear, new ones that fulfill different human desires and needs emerge and expand. The health care sector, virtually nonexistent 200 years ago, accounts for about 12 percent of US employment today (see Chart 2). Tourism, barely an industry in 1900, employed 235 million people in 2011, constituting 8 percent of global employment. A pattern has emerged of activities once informal or done within the household or local community (like communication, entertainment, travel, education, or tending to the ill) becoming industries in the formal economy.

As the labor demands of industries that fulfill contemporary societal needs are automated by new technologies, people will be free to fulfill underserved human 12

aspirations or new societal needs. Perhaps economic activity to counter climate change will scale up dramatically—or to educate the world or formalize the care economy.

So the myriad projections about the big chunk of today’s jobs that might be amenable to automation in coming decades are not cause for widespread and immediate panic. But the confluence of the twin forces of rising nonemployment work and the increasing cognitive capabilities of machines could call for a change in society’s model of earning a living. This is because the labor displacement

effects of automation are moderated by differences in how quickly it lowers the cost of doing different tasks that comprise a job. If organizations start to unbundle jobs and farm out tasks to on-demand labor platforms, the effect will be faster automation of such tasks when the technology is ready.

One solution is to redefine our basic model of how people earn a living: away from payment for labor and talent by a large organization that owns the capital associated with the economic activity and toward a system of tiny businesses that mix labor, talent, and capital inputs. Some inputs might come from the individuals themselves and some from other humans (perhaps via an on-demand platform); over time, a growing share might come from artificial intelligence and robotics technologies.

The emergence of sharing economy and other professional services platforms makes this future of crowd-based capitalism feasible at scale. Perhaps the best example is Airbnb, which matches owners of spare space with those seeking temporary quarters. By many measures, it is the world’s single largest provider of short-term accommodations. (On December 31, 2016, more than 2 million people around the globe were staying in Airbnb housing. The world’s largest hotel chain, Marriott-Starwood, has an inventory of roughly half that, or 1.1 million rooms.)

13

Airbnb gathers demand for space, provides the reassurance that comes with a global brand, and sets and enforces some standards (almost like a next generation franchising operation). But the actual running of the businesses that provide the short-term accommodations—the pricing, inventory management, positioning, merchandising, customer interaction—is done by the 3 million hosts, who build their own microbrands through Airbnb’s reputation system.

Airbnb could be a microcosm of the future of work—relatively immune to the displacement effects of automation. In younger and faster-growing economies, like those of Brazil, India, and Vietnam—where full-time institutional employment is not yet dominant and traditional economic institutions vary in effectiveness— platforms with robust digital trust systems that match demand for services with suppliers could stimulate a self-employed and entrepreneurial population, empower it to reach global markets, and raise its standard of living by building individual capital. In more mature economies, like Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which now rely primarily on full-time formal employment, such a model could maintain reasonable levels of individual income. In essence, these changes could partially insulate the workforce from higher capital-labor substitution because of automation by helping today’s workers make the transition from labor provider to capital owner.

In the future, today’s aspiring law associate might instead be a tiny law firm that operates through a legal services platform. That would give the young lawyer access to corporate clients the platform aggregates and cultivates while leveraging artificial-intelligence-enabled legal research capabilities. Microentrepreneurs might run urban transportation or local trucking businesses using fleets of autonomous cars or trucks through a platform. A global consulting firm might evolve into a platform through which millions of individuals run microconsulting practices (or even small partnerships).

Such a future of large-scale crowd-based capitalism will require fundamental rethinking of postsecondary education. Countries around the world, most prominently the United States, have invested heavily in universities and colleges that prepare their workforces early in life for a career of full-time employment.

Much of this focus must shift toward dramatically increasing the availability and quality of continuing education. Recent political developments in the United States and the United Kingdom reflect in part significant underinvestment in new opportunities for workers displaced by automation and ill equipped for a new world of work. To help those workers, new university-like institutions are needed to provide structured and pedagogically sound transition education. The instruction should be accompanied by a new professional network and access to new opportunities that help overcome the housing, credit, and community factors that often impede relocation to pursue a new career. Such an approach would give 14

workers in flux a new identity and sense of purpose and enable them to rebuild their self-worth. Seeking this sort of midcareer intervention should be as natural as choosing to go to college after high school.

The government of a country must lead the creation of such a system. It may also be prudent to reevaluate middle and high school curricula for the next generation. As the cognitive capabilities of digital machines expand, students may need less education in science, technology, engineering, and math and may benefit from a greater emphasis on design thinking, entrepreneurship, and creativity to prepare them for a microentrepreneurial career.

At the same time, the social contract must be refashioned to accommodate a different kind of workforce. During the second half of the 20th century, a variety of labor laws were developed to improve the quality of work life for full-time employees—including minimum wages, overtime, and insurance. Funding for a number of other incentives—stable salaries, paid vacation time, workplace training, and health care—in many countries is based on an assumption of full-time employment and on the employer providing all or part of the incentive. The design and funding of tomorrow’s social safety net must be adapted for a workforce that is increasingly independent. At the same time, substitutes are needed for the career paths and sense of community many workers now get from the company they work for. Perhaps the role of the postsecondary schools will evolve to include this kind of lifelong career planning.

The challenges facing today’s millennial workforce seem quite daunting.

However, if society plays its cards right, tomorrow may offer a better place. As we have learned from Thomas Piketty his 2014 book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, the most important driver of sustained inequality in modern economies is the concentration of capital ownership. Countries whose government policy steers an economy toward a future of genuine crowd-based capitalism and creates authentically decentralized capital ownership may also enjoy less inequality as a happy by-product. As digital machines compel us to reshape our world of work, perhaps they will also show us a path toward the more equitable society we’ve been seeking for years.

About the author: Arun Sundararajan is a professor at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and author of The Sharing Economy: The End of Employment and the Rise of Crowd-Based Capitalism.

Editor’s Note: The article was originally published in Finance & Development, June 2017, Vol. 54, No. 2. Republished with permission.

15

PENSION SHOCK

YOUNG ADULTS IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES MUST TAKE STEPS TO INCREASE THEIR RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY By: Mauricio Soto

P

ublic pensions have played a crucial role in ensuring retirement income security over the past few decades. But for the millennial generation coming of working age now, the prospect is that public pensions won’t provide as large a safety net as they did to earlier generations. As a result, millennials should take steps to supplement their retirement income.

Pensions and other types of public transfers have long been an important source of income for the elderly, accounting for more than 60 percent of their income in countries that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Pensions also reduce poverty. Without them, poverty rates among those over 65 also would be much higher in advanced economies.

Pressure on pensions But pensions are also costly to provide. Government spending on pensions has been increasing in advanced economies from an average of 4 percent of GDP in 1970 to close to 9 percent in 2015—largely reflecting population aging (see Chart 1, left panel).

Population aging puts pressure on pension systems by increasing the ratio of elderly beneficiaries to younger workers, who typically contribute to funding these benefits. The pressure on retirement systems is exacerbated by increasing longevity— life expectancy at age 65 is projected to increase by about one year a decade.

To deal with the costs of aging, many countries have initiated significant pension reforms, aiming largely at containing the growth in the number of pensioners— typically by increasing retirement ages or tightening eligibility rules—and reducing the size of pensions, usually by adjusting benefit formulas. Since the 1980s, public pension expenditure per elderly person as a percent of income per capita—the socalled economic replacement rate—has been about 35 percent. But that replacement rate is projected to decline to less than 20 percent by 2060 (see Chart 1, right panel).

17

This means that younger generations will have to work longer and save more for retirement to achieve replacement rates similar to those of today’s retirees (see Chart 2):

Working longer: To close the gap in the economic replacement rate relative to today’s retirees, one option for younger individuals is to lengthen their productive work lives. For those born between 1990 and 2009, who will start to retire in 2055, increasing retirement ages by five years—from today’s average of 63 to 68 in 2060—would close half of the gap relative to today’s retirees. A longer work life can be justified by increased longevity. But prolonging work lives also has many 18

benefits. It enhances long-term economic growth and helps governments’ ability to sustain tax and spending policies. Working longer can also help people maintain their physical, mental, and cognitive health (Staudinger and others 2016). However, efforts to promote longer work lives should be accompanied by adequate provisions to protect the poor, whose life expectancy tends to be shorter than average (Chetty and others 2016).

Saving more: Simulations suggest that if those born between 1990 and 2009 put aside about 6 percent of their earnings each year, they would close half of the gap in economic replacement rate relative to today’s retirees. In practice, relying on people’s private savings for retirement requires a hard-to-achieve mix of fortune and savvy. First, individuals need continuous and stable earnings over their careers to be able to save sufficient amounts. Second, workers would have to be able to decide how much to put aside each year and how to invest their savings. Third, the risks from uncertain or low returns are borne by individuals. Finally, workers would have to decide how fast to consume their savings during retirement. These are all complex decisions, and people can make mistakes at each step along the way (Munnel and Sundén 2004).

For younger generations, acting early is crucial to ensure retirement income security, especially because longevity gains are projected to continue. As millennials start to enter the workforce, retirement might be the last thing on their mind. But with many governments retrenching their role in providing retirement income, younger workers need to work longer and step up their retirement savings.

Governments can make it easier for individuals to remain in the workforce at older ages by reviewing taxes and benefits that might favor early retirement.

Nudges to encourage workers to save can also help, for example by automatically enrolling them in private retirement saving plans. For example, starting in 2018, the United Kingdom will require employers to automatically enroll workers in a pension program. Boosting financial literacy and making the workplace more friendly to older workers can also be part of the solution.

The good news for younger workers is that retirement is some four decades away, allowing time to plan for longer careers and to put money aside for later. But they must start now.

About the author: Mauricio Soto is a senior economist in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department.

Editor’s Note: The article was originally published in Finance & Development, June 2017, Vol. 54, No. 2. Republished with permission.

19

GLOBAL TALENT

THE ROLE OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY TEACHERS AND LEADERS IN DEVELOPING A COMPETITIVE STEM WORKFORCE By: Carol O’Donnell

20

T

he global skills gap for filling science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) jobs that permeates today’s job market can only be reduced by developing STEM skills early in primary and secondary schools. The current trend of employers—only hiring the most talented individuals—has created a great demand for positions with little to no qualified individuals to fill them. By cultivating these STEM skills early in primary and secondary schools, however, educators and professionals in both the public and private sector are helping prospective employees become equipped with the foundational skills necessary to succeed in the STEM workplace.

The Role of Education in Global Competitiveness In 1983, a report from the United States, called “A Nation At Risk,” indicated that to maintain its global competitive edge, the U.S had to dedicate itself to the reform of its educational system for the benefit of all students (Gardner et al., 1983), not just the top few. More than 30 years ago this report indicated that the U.S. was at risk. On international tests that compared students’ math, science, or reading outcomes across nations, American students, compared with other industrialized nations, were “never first” and in many cases, were nearly “last” (p. 10, Gardner et al., 1983). Many 17-year-olds did not possess the higher order intellectual skills needed to compete globally. Almost half of U.S. students could not draw inferences from written material or solve a mathematics problem requiring several steps.

National assessments in the U.S. showed a steady decline in science achievement scores (Gardner et al., 1983). The report indicated that the future of the U.S. depended on its educational attainments as a nation.

Nearly 30 years later, in 2012, an Independent Task Force sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) produced a report on U.S. Education Reform and National Security, which came up with nearly the same conclusions as the 1983 “Nation at Risk.” The authors of the CFR report found that despite the fact that the United States invests more in K-12 public education than any other developed country, its failure to educate its students has put the country’s future economic prosperity, global position, and physical safety at risk--leaving the nation unprepared to compete and threatening the country’s ability to thrive in a global economy (Klein, Rice, & Levy, 2012). The report indicated that too many young people in the U.S. have inadequate levels of education and are therefore not employable in an increasingly high-skilled and global economy.

Problem: Today’s Education Challenge In a world that could be defined as “one global village,” many countries agree that collectively, we have made some progress in addressing the trends of educating 21

global talent, but there is still quite a way to go. For example, 20% of U.S. jobs require high levels of knowledge in STEM disciplines, and these demands are growing (Rothwell, 2013). A survey of 400 senior Human Resource professionals ranked “critical thinking” as the most important skill their employees would need in the next five years (Casner-Lotto & Benner, 2006). Over 93% of businesses and nonprofit leaders indicated that they wanted candidates that “demonstrate capacity to think critically, communicate clearly, and solve complex problems” (Hart Research Associates, 2013).

So, what does this all mean for teachers and education leaders in primary and secondary schools across the globe? It’s no longer good enough to just expect students to memorize content. Students have content at their fingertips in their phones and laptops. The real goal is to help students know what to do with that content to solve complex problems—not simple problems, not complicated problems, but truly complex problems. And it is no longer good enough to just give students problems to solve. We have to teach students to identify the problems that need solving, to come up with the solutions, and to engage in critical thinking. Yet, on international tests such as the Program for International Assessment (PISA), 15-year old students in many countries still lag behind in STEM skills (DeSilver, 2015). Similar results for primary and secondary school students were found by The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) (Martin, Mullis, Foy, & Stanco, 2012). These deficiencies come at a time when the demand for highly skilled workers in new STEM fields is accelerating rapidly (Rothwell, 2013).

Policy: Support for Developing Global Talent What role does primary and secondary education policy play in ensuring global talent? The Independent Task Force sponsored by the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations proposed three overarching policy recommendations for addressing the global skills gap (Klein, Rice, & Levy, 2012). First, with collaboration across both public and private sectors, a nation must implement educational expectations, standards, and assessments in subjects, like STEM, so that students master the necessary skills and knowledge vital to protecting national security. Second, in order to fuel innovation, a country must make structural changes that equitably distribute resources so that students have opportunities to compete and make good choices. Finally, schools and policy makers must be held accountable for results to raise public awareness.

National Policy Shifts Today, STEM standards include not only what students should know, but what skills are needed for success. Students must not only “understand” science, technology, 22

engineering and math, they must engage in the processes of the disciplines in an integrated way. Educators do this by engaging students in “authentic STEM experiences” defined as “designed experiences inside or outside of school in which learners engage directly in doing STEM…from ‘hands-on’ science, to problembased learning, to inquiry” that “have measureable impact on student motivation, persistence, and learning” (p. 10, U.S. Federal STEM Education: 5-Year Strategic Plan, 2013).

Teachers and researchers across the globe are working to design STEM curriculum materials that respond to this shift by giving students opportunities to: develop their own questions (not just answer questions they are given); explore phenomena; collect evidence; reflect on their learning; reason from evidence and construct explanations; think critically, solve problems, and form decisions; apply what they learn to novel situations; and, communicate logically and clearly. The bottom line— students who behave like scientists, technologists, computer scientists, engineers, and mathematicians during their primary and secondary school years should be better prepared for college and career, and become scientifically literate citizens.

These beliefs are universal. In the United States, for example, there is a national shift to Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). With these new standards, the nation is thinking more deeply about how to help students and teachers engage in scientific and engineering practices (NGSS Lead States, 2013).

To drive major policy shifts, many ministries of education put in place policy documents that provide funding for education reform efforts that spark innovation.

In the United States, for example, Congress reauthorized the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA) in 2015 to replace its predecessor (which most people in 2001 came to know as No Child Left Behind [NCLB]). It had been more than a decade since the NCLB law was enacted, and in December 2015 the U.S. Congress rewrote the education law, which was way overdue (U.S. Department of Education [ED], 2015). The new law—Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA)—came at an important moment. ED reported at the time that high school graduation rates had increased; dropout rates had lowered; more students were graduating from college; more STEM teachers were being trained than ever before; and, States were raising expectations for all students, which meant the U.S. was prepared to outcompete and out-teach other nations at a time when knowledge is the single determinant of economic performance (NCES, 2015).

The ESSA law prioritizes STEM education. It provides funding through grants to the States for STEM education engagement, courses, after-school programs, service-based and field opportunities, and other activities. It provides professional development and instructional materials for STEM teachers, and for the creation and enhancement of STEM-focused specialty schools (Henry, 2015). It allows schools to partner with institutions of higher education for professional 23

development for teachers, including in STEM. It establishes a nationwide STEM Master Teacher Corps, a state-led effort to recognize, reward, attract, and retain outstanding STEM teachers, particularly in high-need and rural schools. It also retains the requirement that States must test all students in mathematics in each of grades three through eight and again in high school; and once in science in grades 3-5, 6-8 and once in high school. And it adds computer science as a core academic subject that is part of what constitutes a “well-rounded education” (Henry, 2015).

But there is more work to be done. In today’s economy a high quality education is a “prerequisite for success” (White House, 2015). Students have to not only master the basics, but become critical thinkers, problem identifiers, and problem solvers.

Competitive advantage depends on whether a nation’s students are scientifically literate. Interest has grown in public-private partnerships and other forms of multistakeholder initiatives as ways to leverage resources and talents to address education. Although collaborations between corporations and NGOs are not a new phenomenon, there is a call for both an increase in the number of collaborations as well as an increase in the scale of these efforts. For example, in partnership with Johnson & Johnson, the Smithsonian Science Education Center SSEC is working to help girls of all ages to stay on the STEM track through WiSTEM2D, which stands for Women in Science, Technology, Engineering, Math, Manufacturing & Design.

The Youth Pillar of the program is aimed at engaging girls between the ages of 5 and 18 through initiatives designed to spark interest in STEM at a young age—both in the United States and throughout the globe.

International Efforts The InterAcademy Partnership (IAP) Science Education Programme (IAP SEP) and the Economic Cooperation Organization Science Foundation (ECOSF) have engaged science educators, scientists, curriculum design experts, health scientists, technologists, and historians from more than 110 countries in bringing Inquirybased Science Education (IBSE) approaches to countries that share a common belief that knowledge is not a privilege—it is a right. According to reform experts in Chile, for example, despite extraordinary advances of science and technology in the last decades and the increase of their influence, science continues to be a site of privileged knowledge (Devés & López, 2012). Devés and López argue that there is consensus at different levels that the achievement of a more equitable access to scientific knowledge requires improving the quality of science education in schools.

As a result, organizations like the InterAcademy Partnership and its members, as well as the World Science Academies, have called for “a stronger involvement of scientists to work as active partners with their local educational systems to ensure effective science education” (Mohamed, 2001).

24

The InterAcademy Partnership (IAP) Science Education Progamme (SEP) convened a series of meetings in Khartoum, Sudan (5-9 February 2017), including a two-day Inquiry-based Science Education (IBSE) Policy Forum (7-8 February). With the establishment of the IAP in 2016, ongoing projects and programmes, including across health and science education, are now starting to integrate. One example of this is a new project being led by IAP SEP Global Council member Dr. Carol O’Donnell of the Smithsonian Science Education Center, which will focus on Zika and other mosquito-borne diseases. The project aims to develop community-focused inquirybased curriculum materials for primary and middle-school-aged children aligned with the United Nations’ Global Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs). The goal is to help raise primary and secondary school students’ awareness of the dangers of mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit, and to help students understand how they can reduce the risks of becoming infected. This example is only one of many of the efforts by IAP. Another example, led by Dr. Pierre Lena of La Main a La Pate, along with several other scientists and science educators across the globe, will focus on developing climate change education materials that align with the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Together, the 110 countries represented by IAP SEP, believe that knowledge is not privilege, it is a right, and primary and secondary school educators play a key role in producing global talent that will help each country maintain its competitive edge.

Practice: Case Study of STEM Education Reform Policies are only as good as the implementers that put these policies into practice (O’Donnell, 2008). Success depends on everyone working together—the ministries of education, regional leaders, community leaders, school leaders, elected officials, philanthropists, corporations, and primary and secondary school teachers.

In the United States, for example, the federal government provides annual appropriations to the Smithsonian Institution—an instrument of the government—to “increase and diffuse knowledge.” The Smithsonian does this through its 19 museums (which are free to the public), 9 research centers, zoo, and numerous education and cultural centers. The Smithsonian Science Education Center—the only education unit within the Smithsonian that is fully dedicated to formal STEM education reform and a member of the InterAcademy Partnership that represents the United States on the IAP Science Education Programme’s Global Council--has reached into 50 states and Washington, DC, served 1454 school districts and 6.8 million students (Shuler, 2010), and distributed science curriculum to 25 countries, including Chile (IAP, SEP, 2016). The Smithsonian Science Education Center also has evidence from a five-year rigorous experiment, funded by the U.S. Department of Education’s (ED’s) Investing in Innovation (i3) grant, that its Leadership and Assistance for Science Education Reform (LASER) model—which engages teachers and students in authentic STEM experiences through five pillars of reform—works, not only in 25

the US (Alberg, 2015; Zoblotsky, 2017) but throughout the globe (Devés & López, 2012; Skogh & de Vries, 2015).

LASER stands for Leadership and Assistance for Science Education Reform and includes five pillars of reform—curriculum materials, professional development, materials support, community and administrative support, and assessment (Shuler, 2010). “LASER i3” refers to the study conducted by evaluators from the Center for Research in Educational Policy (CREP) at the University of Memphis that was paid for by the U.S. federal government through the i3 program. As a third-party evaluator of the Smithsonian Science Education Center’s LASER model, CREP examined student and teacher performance at both elementary and middle schools (students ages 5-13) implementing the LASER model, which theorizes that STEM education reform must be built on what the research tells us about best practices and developed around a shared vision of instructional improvement that is contextualized to a school, district, State, or region (Shuler, 2010). The LASER model also outlines that STEM reform must include not only good STEM curriculum materials, but it must also include supporting teacher professional development; materials support—the stuff of science; community, business, and administrative support; and solid assessment of student learning to ensure impact (Shuler, 2010).

A true STEM ecosystem.

During the i3 LASER study, CREP studied approximately 60,000 students across three States and assessed the impact of the Smithsonian Science Education Center’s curriculum and professional services on a longitudinal subsample of more than 9,000 elementary and middle school students and their teachers in three regions of the United States: (1) the Houston Independent School District in Texas, (2) eight school districts in northern New Mexico, and (3) seven school districts in North Carolina. Participating LASER teachers at grades 1–8 received a different Science and Technology Concepts (STC™) curriculum unit each year for three years. The STC curriculum—developed by the Smithsonian Science Education Center—was accompanied by another integral part of the LASER model: professional development. Teachers attended two professional learning workshops for each unit to better understand pedagogical strategies and gain deeper content knowledge for successful implementation (Alberg, 2015; Zoblotsky, Bertz, Gallagher, & Alberg, 2017).

What did CREP, as a third party evaluator, learn about student outcomes by studying the LASER model using a randomized control trial? Students who are the most underserved—who are English language learners, have disabilities, or are economically disadvantaged—received the most benefits from learning STEM by doing STEM. Teachers were more confident in their use of inquiry. Students were not only learning science, but their math and reading scores on State tests

26

improved as well (Alberg, 2015; Zoblotsky et al, 2017). Using the Partnership for the Assessment of Standards-Based Science (PASS), the evaluators found that the strongest gains by LASER students relative to the comparison group were seen in hands-on performance tasks. These gains are particularly noteworthy as they indicate students are able to apply what they have learned in science to hands-on tasks, just as professional scientists apply their expertise to conduct investigations and solve problems (Alberg, 2015; Zoblotsky et al, 2017).

Educators in both the public and private sector across the globe are preparing primary and secondary school students for the unprecedented changes they face in the future. Historical trends demonstrate that education problems must be addressed through primary and secondary education policy and practice. As experts have noted, a nation’s failure to educate its students can put the country’s future economic prosperity, global position, and physical safety at risk--leaving the nation unprepared to compete and threatening the country’s ability to thrive in a global economy.

Armed with a validation of its efforts at both the national and international levels, the Smithsonian Science Education Center, the InterAcademy Partnership, and others are transforming science education throughout the nation and world, with one goal in mind: to help improve student understanding of STEM disciplines, and to help prepare today’s students—all students—for the demands of the STEM workforce of tomorrow. Together, we need to ensure a skilled STEM workforce, and we recognize--both nationally and internationally--that what happens in primary and secondary schools today, makes a difference in our success as nations tomorrow.

About the author: Dr. Carol O’Donnell is Director of the Smithsonian Science Education Center, dedicated to transforming the learning and teaching of science throughout the nation and world. She is a member of the InterAcademy Partnership Science Education Programme Global Council. Previously, Carol was a leader in the Office of State Support at the US Department of Education, supporting States and districts to sustain education reforms and improve student outcomes. A former K-12 teacher, curriculum developer, and researcher, Dr. O’Donnell also serves on the faculty for the Physics Department at George Washington University.

27

THE ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND POLITICAL DIMENSION 0F THE POST EMPLOYMENT WORLD By: Winona Roylance

W

ithin the last 200 years, the world’s job market has evolved from a straightforward one-career track into a complex system of constant change and uncertainty. What kinds of jobs can we expect in 2050?

What will the demand curve be for these jobs? And most importantly, how can we prepare future generations for this non-stop market? With members from the economic, social, and political dimensions working together around the clock to answer these questions, many are hopeful that a solution will found that will help us understand the future of this increasingly complex job landscape. For now, however, only one thing remains certain: while the future of jobs may be uncertain, we must prepare for any and all possibilities.

Industries such as the manufacturing industry will face many challenges in the coming years. With the advancement of technology and new business models, the manufacturing industry is undergoing massive changes in all arenas, especially in production. Duane Dickson, vice chairman of Deloitte, explains how exactly this tech revolution will affect the industry: Production is becoming more decentralized, stackable, and scalable. As production moves away from the centralized major plants, factories will become more localized and produce materials based on immediate local needs.

The business infrastructure of manufacturing companies is changing. While the core of a company may produce cash flow and outcomes, the edge is where new materials will inevitably be created for technologies such as cars, water systems, and energy systems. And while the edge may bring much uncertainty, they are an essential part to solving many of the mass problems that plague us today, such as the environment and the planet’s ecosystem.

Forty five percent of workers in the materials industry is preparing to retire. With nearly half of the materials industry getting ready to retire in the US, Japan, and 29

Europe, many are worried about the future of manufacturing. This is due to the fact that while skills and knowledge can be passed down to a new generation, the artistry and mastery that comes with experience will have to be re-learned by the new workers.

There are several critical skills necessary to working in the manufacturing industry. Skills such as collaboration, critical thinking, platform and systems thinking, persuasion, and technological know-how will be essential to surviving in the new manufacturing industry. Ford, for example, is now hiring more software engineers than engineers who design cars, which shows just how critical it is for workers in all sectors to be tech savvy.

Companies need to change to a more consumer-driven approach. During the infancy of the car manufacturing industry, companies did not pay adequate attention to consumer needs. With other sectors becoming more consumercentered, however, it is crucial for manufacturing-based companies to listen to the needs of their consumers and pay attention to new statistics, such as the recent trend in environmentally safe cars.

We could experience overall economic inflation and sector deflation simultaneously. With the services component of the GDP at 60-65% and the goods component of the GDP resting at 30-35%, it is possible for the services economy to inflate much faster than the goods economy. This could cause overall inflation while the manufacturing sector simultaneously experiences deflation, a problem that could cause mass unemployment and employment dislocation.

New technologies and innovations will disrupt the entire economy. Although many fear that technology will ultimately destroy the future of jobs, Antoinette Porschung of Credit Suisse believes in a future of potential.

Innovation has always destroyed jobs, but it has also created new jobs too. While an Oxford study predicts that over the next few decades, 47% of jobs in the US labor market could be eliminated, the fact that new innovations have always managed to create new jobs is encouraging. During the smartphone revolution, for example, many jobs were rendered obsolete, but many more jobs – such as software programming, app development, and smartphone technology creation – was created in its place.

There needs to be a more stable worldwide banking structure. Reports from the World Economic Forum detail how more than 2 billion people in the world today do not have access to financial transaction accounts. Even more unsettling, it is estimated that 200 million micro, small, and medium businesses have unmet financial needs in excess of three trillion dollars.

30

Bigger companies need to become more flexible. Although big companies may have more assets and resources, startups will ultimately be more successful in the age of technology due to their flexibility and innovation. Therefore, big companies need to improve innovation and engagement with employees to increase flexibility and keep up with smaller companies in this new era of technology.

Programs such as Singularity University are working towards grand solutions.

Located in San Francisco, Singularity University is a program focused on solving today’s grand global challenges, such as problems with the ecosystem, health, and security. Students of the program work on projects designed to positively impact one billion people in ten years by insuring basic needs are met for all people, improving quality of life, and mitigating future risks.

Emerging technologies have the ability to harness the talents of those with disabilities. With advances in technology such as machine vision, gesture control devices, and emotion recognition succeeding in major advances, people who have been traditionally excluded from the workforce – such as those with disabilities – are benefitting from technology that not only helps them become more competitive in the workforce, but may also render their disabilities obsolete.

The International Labor Organization estimates that there are 785 million working-aged individuals (aged 15-59) with disabilities. Of those 785 million, 160 million currently participate in the workforce with an estimated 350 million more individuals able to participate in the coming years as emerging technology continues to advance.

The workforce participation rate of individuals with disabilities is too low. In the United States, the workforce participation rate of individuals with disabilities is at a mere 20%, with the general population rate at 69%. Conversely, the Netherlands has a workforce participation rate of 40% for individuals with disabilities while the general population has a participation rate of 80%. Therefore, it is crucial – and also entirely possible – for workforce participation rates to increase for individuals with disabilities.

Individuals with disabilities are competitive candidates for the workforce. With the help of technology, many individuals with disabilities may not only match the performance rate of their able-bodied peers, but may also be able to surpass them with potential super abilities granted by their augmented technology, such as superior strength and flexibility.

Editor’s Note: The preceding excerpt is from the 2017 Global Talent Summit Report in Zurich, Switzerland. Republished with permission.

31

EMPLOYEES WITHOUT BORDERS: UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON THE WORKPLACE By: Ana C. Rold

W

hile the issue of human migration continues to create polarizing tensions between political parties in the United States, it is undeniable that immigration has historically had a deep and profound impact on the political, social, and economic landscape globally. With globalization continuing to dominate every aspect of modern life, migration— including immigration, emigration, and the displacement of refugees—has had an especially large influence on the world economy and the job market. From the migrant workers that make up a large percentage of the U.S. workforce, to the multinational employees that work in international corporations, now more than ever we are beginning to see how jobs transcend borders. While the everchanging job landscape appears to be leading toward a borderless job marketplace, it is important to keep in mind the steps the private sector and governments will have to take to get there without conflict.

In the United States, immigration and refugee issues have become an especially hot topic in recent months. Despite current political tensions, however, the fact remains that immigrants perform a large percentage of jobs in the U.S., with sectors such as private households, textile and apparel manufacturing, agriculture, accommodation, and food manufacturing employing the most immigrants out of all industries. In total, a 2014 Pew report shows that 17.1% of the total U.S. workforce—or 27.6 million out of 161.4 million workers—is made up of immigrants, with 12.1% entering the U.S. legally and 5% entering undocumented. The same 2014 Pew report also shows that while no specific industry is made up by a majority of immigrants, in terms of specific jobs, 63% of personal appearance workers (a category that includes jobs such as manicurists, makeup artists and the like) 60% of agricultural work and 55% of sewing machine worker jobs are performed by immigrants.

33

While immigrants may not make up a majority of job holders in the U.S., the fact that over 17% of jobs are performed by foreigners shows that the dismissal of foreign-born peoples would have disastrous consequences. This past February, a U.S. nationwide protest known as “A Day Without Immigrants” was held in order to demonstrate the potential effects of tightened immigration laws in the U.S., with restaurants, daycare centers, markets and other businesses closing for the day in protest of these prospective immigration bans. In the restaurant industry, for example, statistics show that nearly 23% of restaurant employees—and 45% of chefs in particular—are immigrants, and with the closure of dozens of restaurants throughout cities like Washington DC and New York City on “A Day Without Immigrants,” a simulation of what a migrant-less workforce would be like could be felt throughout these cities.

But what is it exactly about migrant workers that make them uniquely important to the U.S. economy? A recent Sodexo Workplace Trends Report highlights three key reasons why these foreign-born workers are valuable to U.S. economic growth: first, the free movement of skilled workers between countries contributes to both national and global economic growth and competitiveness; second, the easy flow of labor can be used to fill job shortages in specific sectors; and third, migrants who are empowered with the freedoms of U.S. citizens are oftentimes better consumers who create new and untapped markets. Perhaps most importantly, a WEF report shows that contrary to popular belief, the U.S. population is projected to grow much slower in the next few decades, leading to an aging U.S. population that will be unable to fill the 54.8 million jobs that are expected to open up. Immigrants will be necessary to filling this long-term worker shortage, and perhaps most encouraging of all, evidence suggests that increases in foreign-born workers will not decrease wages and employment available to U.S. citizens, but will instead complement it.

While the U.S. may continue to struggle with the issue of immigration for a while more, on a global scale, international businesses have been hiring multinational workforces for decades—a model that demonstrates a potential solution to the U.S. issue of migrant workers. In the UK and Luxembourg, for example, language programs—such as pairing up foreign-speaking workers with English-speaking colleagues, or providing employees with no-cost language classes—are being introduced by companies in an effort to bridge any cultural and language gaps in their workforce as well as increase the inclusivity of foreign-born workers. Similarly, companies such as McDonald’s, Microsoft, and Chobani also claim to employ a large number of refugees, with McDonald’s Deutschland employing over 900 refugees since 2015, Microsoft donating desktop computers to refugees in Germany, and Chobani’s workforce comprising of roughly 30% immigrants and refugees. Ultimately, these companies

34

demonstrate potential practices that U.S. businesses can adopt in order to create a space where migrant workers can not only adapt, but also thrive.

In the end, it will be of utmost importance for U.S. businesses to promote safer and more inclusive environments for both citizen and migrant workers in an effort to remain competitive in the global market. On the flipside, it is crucial for migrant workers to invest in language skills and proper assessment of existing professional skills in order to gain employment in a field most suited to them.

With both parties working together to create a better work culture, businesses will prosper from the unique edge migrant workers can give them, and workers can gain the benefits of a secured livelihood. Ultimately, globalization continues to dominate the international economy, and it is critical that the U.S.—both supported and led by foreign-born workers—join in on this trend.

About the author: Ana C. Rold is Founder and CEO of Diplomatic Courier, a Global Affairs Media Network. She teaches political science courses at Northeastern University and is the Host of The World in 2050–A Forum About Our Future. To engage with her on this article follow her on Twitter @ACRold.

35

YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE ROLE OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP By: Kris Gopalakrishnan

T

he global economy is still reeling under the impact of the recent financial crisis. Advanced and developing economies alike are grappling with the fact that the global economic recovery has not only been a jobless recovery but also a weakening one. Although each region has its unique challenges, a common threat, which the global economy at large is facing, is the rising unemployment—particularly youth unemployment. The International Labor Organization recently published its Global Employment Trends for Youth 2013 report. According to the report, the global youth unemployment rate was estimated at around 12.6% in 2013, which is close to the peak crisis-level unemployment. An estimated 73 million youth, aged 15-24 were unemployed in 2013. The challenge is not limited to developing economies alone, which is home to close to 90% of the global youth population. In developed economies and the European Union too, youth unemployment was estimated to have increased by as much as 24.9% between 2008 and 2012. It is without doubt that an entire generation, across developed and developing economies alike is facing the risk of lifetime unemployment with no access to an acceptable standard of living. Needless to say, this unprecedented crisis severely impacts the competitiveness and socio-economic growth prospects of nations at large.

The scale of the problem is too huge and too complex for any single stakeholder to work in isolation and hope to move the needle. Businesses, societies and governments across the world must act together and act now to address the challenge. The challenge is not limited to employment but also employability. On the one hand, the slowing economic recovery is not creating enough ‘new’ jobs to cater to the large number of youth graduating every year and joining the ‘employable labor force’. On the other hand however, contrary to popular belief, millions of ‘existing jobs’ go unfilled due to the growing skills mismatch. In the U.S. alone, which is home to 11 million unemployed people, 37

there are an estimated 4 million unfilled jobs, in view of the ‘employability’ challenge of the available talent.

Governments across the world have acknowledged the severity of the crisis and are working to alleviate the situation. The G20 nations to begin with, are looking at tackling the unemployment challenge as one of the key priorities in their agenda. Businesses from within the G20 nations, which have formed the B20 coalition, are working closely with the G20 governments to develop business-led solutions to address the challenge. The short-term focus of these efforts is to foster job creation through economic growth and conducive macroeconomic and labor market policies.

There is a concerted effort to promote apprenticeships and foster talent mobility at the inter-governmental level. National governments are focused on creating networks comprising the government, policy makers, business leaders, financial institutions, academia, training providers and citizens. These networks enable all stakeholders to work together to cater to aspects such as – reskilling and continuous skilling, aligning the skill sets of the labor force to the needs of the industry, providing unemployed youth the support needed to find suitable apprenticeships and jobs and also providing small and medium enterprises with access to credit which will allow them to scale their business and create more jobs.

In the long-term, in addition to all these efforts at the global and national levels, there is a strong need to promote the culture of entrepreneurship.

Creating entrepreneurs allows job seekers to become job creators. Entrepreneurs also have the ability to leverage emerging trends to create business value and in the process, create more jobs. However, this is easier said than done.

Governments, businesses and academia need to work together to provide the conducive eco-system that promotes entrepreneurship. There are several interventions needed. For instance, Tier I and Tier II cities need to create entrepreneurship incubators supported by the government (conducive policies), businesses (technical and process expertise) and financial institutions (access to credit and angel investments) catering to the needs of budding entrepreneurs.

To provide scale to the efforts of spreading the entrepreneurship culture, academic universities need to embrace and promote entrepreneurship. In emerging economies like India and China in particular, such interventions will play a crucial role in leveraging their demographic dividend, which would otherwise become a potential demographic burden.

The early signs are extremely positive. In India for instance, in several states, including the southern state of Kerala, universities have been actively promoting the entrepreneurship culture amongst its students. The Kerala University set up

38

the Entrepreneurship Development Cell in its campus as early as in 2007 to create enthusiasm in entrepreneurship and also to provide a platform which brings the supporting stakeholders on board. The state government also announced the setting up of a state-of-the-art Technology Innovation Zone in the country’s first telecom business incubator—the Startup Village. The government has also allocated funds to support its flagship programme, Startup Village to Silicon Valley, which aims to build a bridge between the state and Silicon Valley.

These are only a few examples from the several pockets of excellence that exist across developing and developed economies. These early signs are very encouraging and are a step in the right direction. We certainly have a long way to go in our pursuit of addressing the challenge of structural global unemployment. There are no easy answers and one size certainly does not fit all. However, we need to continue our concerted efforts across and within governments with all stakeholders playing their part. This is the only way we can ensure that the youth of today’s generation get an opportunity to scripting and benefit from the growth story of the global economy.

About the author: S. Gopalakrishnan (Kris) is Executive Co-Chairman and one of the co-founders of Infosys. Kris has been voted top CEO (IT Services category) in Institutional Investor’s inaugural ranking of Asia’s Top Executives; selected as a winner of the 2nd Asian Corporate Director Recognition Awards

by Corporate Governance Asia and was selected to Thinkers 50, an elite list of global business thinkers. In January 2011, the Government of India awarded Kris the Padma Bhushan, India’s third highest civilian honor.

39

TAPPING INTO THE GLOBAL GENERATIONAL TALENT POOL By: Cheryl-Anne Smith

T

imes are changing and the competition between businesses for the brightest and talent is going to get fiercer in the coming years. As many economies face declining birth-rates and aging populations, the shortage of skilled workers is set to rise. This means that companies who intend expanding and sustaining their competitive advantage on a global scale will increasingly have to battle it out to attract the best up-and-coming talent in the harshest talent climate. To access the best from the global generational talent pool, businesses should be prepared to understand what makes each generation unique, employ innovative strategies such as virtual platforms, and have the ability to manage flexible teams of remote employees.

Understanding generational needs Working abroad still remains a driving factor for many talented individuals aiming to enhance their career development. However, understanding what makes each generation unique could better prepare recruiters and organizations to source the best of the best talent. In a report released by Price Water House Coopers on Talent Mobility by 2020 , three generation of workers be it the Baby Boomers, Generation Xers and Millennials, will have various career and remuneration expectations that will result in their different mobility practices.

According to the report, by 2020, Baby Boomers would have realized their career objectives. Yet as the rate of life expectancy increases, this group will be more than willing to continue working in a bid to accumulate more income that could see them through to retirement. Their decision to relocate abroad for a job opportunity will stem from the long-term financial package offered, the location, or opportunity.

41

Generation Xers on the other hand will be more selective of international job offers by 2020. This generation will be near, or at the height of their earning potential and careers. They will be concerned about job security, pension entitlements and financial stability that will allow them to support their children’s educational needs. Accepting an international job offer with the intent on relocating will more than likely occur if it is a senior position and a long-term job offer. An international job offer will also have to include benefits and allowances or flexible travel arrangements to balance this group’s private and working life.

By 2020, Millenials will be the generation eager and more inclined to accept international job offers and relocate. Not only do they think differently but they view the world and the organizations they work for differently. If employment prospects are better abroad, they will not hesitate to start their careers far from home. They are more flexible and more willing to move from one opportunity to another, across multiple cultures and economies, pursuing well-paid opportunities abroad and for various lengths of time. However, they will also be much more demanding when it comes to their earning potential and their career advancement.

Yet not every individual will be willing to board a plane to a foreign country.

This could be related to costs of international deployment, fear of new locations, breaking family and social networks or regulatory barriers such as awaiting work permits that could take unusually long and end up deterring prospective employees from wanting to leave at all etc. Where such cases exists, companies should consider accessing talented individuals eager for global experiences but yet not willing to relocate, by means of delivering international work opportunities in innovative and alternative ways.

Virtualization This can be accomplished by making use of technology, such as broadband, cloud computing or online collaboration tools that incorporate virtual teams operating on virtual platforms. Such virtual platforms will allow individuals to work effectively from their home-base with their employees in initial host countries. The advantage to companies means no costs incurred for redeployment and accessing a wider variety of global talent from across the generational divide. This trend seems to be taking off according to KPMGs report on Rethinking Human Resources in a Changing World. Their findings indicate that 60% of businesses surveyed have incorporated virtual workspaces and 72% maintain that increases in both virtual and flexible workers are required.

42

Nevertheless, challenges do exist when companies opt to go virtual. The challenge is retaining remote employees. Monetary rewards and incentives will have to be adjusted in a bid to keep remote employees loyal and highly productive. Companies will also have to be prepared to invest in training and development to make workers feel included in their organizational culture, as well as, continuously engage with remote workers via other technological tools, such as, video conferencing and instant messaging as a means of building and maintaining relationships. Yet, as Professor Ulrich states, “employees want to do work that is meaningful. If remote work is meaningful, people will stay.�

Managing remote flexible teams McKinsey indicates that in Preparing for a New Era of Work, jobs can be broken up into compartments, while others can be virtualized. In so doing, companies stand a better chance of accessing a wide variety of highly skilled global generational talent. However, according to KMPG, only 24% of businesses indicate that their HR departments are equipped in dealing with and supporting an increase of both virtual and flexible workers.

This means that companies will have to rethink how they intend managing a flexible remote workforce. As such, McKinsey recommends that managers become coordinators and coaches that ensure information gets dispersed to groups or individuals effectively. Over communicating is also stressed, so that employees have clear roles. Furthermore, managers should be willing to define objectives, observe and listen to employees and then be willing to get out of their employees’ way so that they can get the job done.

There is no doubt that the needs of generations will change over the course of time. Yet companies that are prepared to go the extra mile and think-out-ofthe-box by making use of technological tools and managing remote teams of employees will be at the forefront of tapping into the best generational talent pool the world has to offer.

About the author: Cheryl-Anne Smith is a Cape Town, South Africa based researcher for Wikistrat. She holds a Masters of Philosophy degree specialising in Public Policy and Administration, an Honours degree in International Relations, and an undergraduate degree in Political Studies and Governance from the University of Cape Town.

43

HOW ROBOTS ARE TRANSFORMING THE WAY WE WORK By: Ana C. Rold

F

or the past six years (or more) we have been hearing about the unprecedented advancement in robotics and artificial intelligence. But it wasn’t until earlier this year that AI and robots grabbed the attention of a much wider general audience. Sex robots aside, the biggest development in robotics has all of us wonder: how will this ever-evolving technology change the way we work?

While many robot-centered films depict robots as being machines of destruction bent on not only taking over the workplace, but the entire world— such as I, Robot’s army of NS-5 helper robots whose awakening brings about a thirst for the destruction of humanity—many other robot films are centered around the more positive and humanistic aspects of machines, such as Pixar’s Wall-E or the titular gentle robot in The Iron Giant. Opinions are divided on whether the future of robots will be one of coexistence or of a master-slave relationship, but one thing is for certain: robots are transforming the world, and more importantly, the way we work.

Much like I, Robot’s depiction of sentient robots as the end to human society, there is often a sense of fear in the general public’s understanding of robots and their role in the job economy. With current trends leaning towards increasing numbers of robots in the workforce as well as increased rates of unemployment for human workers, robots involved in low-skilled labor such as assembly and production-related jobs are often pinpointed as one of the main factors behind this concerning trend. Even as recent as this past March, companies such as Domino’s have announced the creation of robots capable of delivering pizzas to residents nearby any Domino’s franchise, an invention that many believe could put delivery drivers out of business and lead to potentially larger conflicts between self-driving automation technologies and those whose livelihood depends on working in the transportation industry.

45

Unfortunately, this fear isn’t completely unfounded. In the 1970’s, for example, the popularization of self-serve gas pumps rendered the majority of gas station attendants’ jobs obsolete. Since then, the rapid evolution of machinery has put to rest many classic forms of labor and in its place installed more efficient robotic technologies, such as Rethink Robotics’ Baxter robot, which is capable of not only basic assembly-line techniques, but also possesses the ability to learn new movements from hands-on learning in order to become widely applicable and flexible to the needs of different industries. The never-ending evolution of these machines often points to potential mass unemployment, with a 2016 study by the World Bank predicting that nearly two-thirds of jobs in developing nations will be replaced by automation. In the next 10 years alone, a Roland Berger study anticipates that robots could replace hundreds of thousands of unskilled jobs, potentially affecting up to 1.5 million positions in the Eurozone.

If movies such as Wall-E are to be trusted, however, a future of robots in the workplace does not necessarily spell out devastating losses for humans. While it is true that robots will take up many of the activities that unskilled workers currently perform, the amount of jobs won’t necessarily decrease as dramatically.

First, the increasing demand for robots in the workplace will create countless jobs for people to design and assemble them, as well as skilled workers who can operate and maintain both current and future robots—something that could potentially lead to the introduction of an estimated 2 million jobs in the next eight years alone. Similarly, a Forrester Big Idea report forecasts that while 16% of jobs will disappear due to automation by 2025, there will be a simultaneous 9% increase in jobs, leading to a total net loss of 7%—much less than the devastating percentages of unemployment many people fear. While automation is inevitable and concerning, it is the automation of automation that will likely be the real change maker.

Relatedly, the increase in automation-based technologies working in unskilled labor positions will lead to a decrease the amount of employees working in more dangerous work positions, such as those that deal with repetitive tasks or unsafe working conditions. In Poland and Brazil, for example, drones are beginning to be used more frequently to inspect unsafe buildings, while others are being used to remove snow from roofs. Even more encouraging, the increasing intelligence of automation can be used to complement and augment the capabilities of human workers, such as robots working alongside human workers on assembly lines, a practice that is already being put into place in Ford factories throughout Germany. With this ever-increasing co-dependency between humans and robots, it is easy to view robots more as collaborative coworkers—or “co-bots,” as they are often coined—and less as the evil competitors many movies make them out to be.

46

In order to reach this ideal state of co-habitation in the workplace, however, it is imperative that we educate and prepare workers for an unpredictable future. With the vast majority of robots set to take over the more low-skilled jobs, having a human workforce of highly skilled workers to fill higher job roles is crucial—and therefore, both general education and specialized training is key to creating meaningful and important jobs for human workers.

On a more general scale, it is important to not only prepare the workers themselves, but also the job economy itself for the unpredictable effects that robotics will have on all industries. With the widespread introduction of home computers in the 1980’s and 1990’s, for example, training programs that focused on training workers to fix typewriters and other older technologies had to quickly adapt in order to train workers in computer repair and maintenance instead, lest these programs become obsolete. As we move forward, it is all too likely that reaction time to robotic innovations will have to increase dramatically both within and throughout all industries—and in order to accomplish this, training programs and educational institutions must remain flexible and prepare for an uncertain future.

Ultimately, the future of jobs and how robots will play a part in the job economy is completely dependent upon how humans proceed. While we should remain cautious and aware of the unpredictable nature of technology in the workplace, with proper preparation and a focus on creating a more educated human workforce, the benefits of working alongside automated technologies are endless. Instead of the dreary potential of a robot apocalypse that movies like I, Robot caution against, then, it is equally safe to say that our future partnership with robots will be one augmented by opportunities for advanced intelligence, unimaginable innovations, and prosperity for all involved.

About the author: Ana C. Rold is Founder and CEO of Diplomatic Courier, a Global Affairs Media Network. She teaches political science courses at Northeastern University and is the Host of The World in 2050–A Forum About Our Future. To engage with her on this article follow her on Twitter @ACRold.

47

IT’S NEXT TOP JOB WON’T BE DONE BY DEVELOPERS By: Lauren Maffeo

T

he robots aren’t coming—they’re already here. The Oxford English dictionary defines artificial intelligence as “The theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and translation between languages.” From Facebook using bots for suicide prevention to Mark Cuban’s prediction that the world’s first trillionaire will work in AI, this topic has earned exponential interest. That’s due to an equal dose of fear and fascination.

Gartner’s “Predicts 2017: Artificial Intelligence” report shares that client inquiries about AI grew 500 percent from 2014 to 2015. Executives want to know which AI tools they should invest in and how to deploy them across organizations. These are big questions in themselves. But there’s also widespread fear that AI will get too good and start stealing jobs.

This fear is not unfounded. If we’ve already reached a point where some AI tools outperform humans, what will the future of work look like? If Gartner’s forecast proves to be correct, it looks full of opportunity for some surprising players.

The first core prediction is that tech’s biggest names won’t lead the AI revolution. Instead, a slew of small vendors who provide chatbots for specific industries will give more business value than the likes of Google. This is a twist on the traditional “big corporate” conundrum where an industry giant overtakes small businesses. Instead, Gartner’s report argues that enterprises should seek proposals from smaller AI vendors who can teach them new ways to innovate.

The second core prediction is a new IT role that AI will create. “By 2019, more than 10 percent of IT hires in customer services will write scripts for bot interactions,” the report predicts.

49

Advances in forms of machine learning - like natural-language processing mean that chatbots hold potential to make the customer experience easier, faster, and more satisfying. This is because chatbots can access knowledge about each customer and how similar customers replied in the past.

But chatbots are not enough in themselves. To reach their full potential, they need a great “navigator” to provide the best results. And although “chatbot scripter” might be IT’s next top job, it won’t be done by developers.

“Programmers are not the best choice to design customer service interfaces,” the report claims. Instead, its authors advise hiring people with customer experience who excel at internal communications and process articulation. These employees are best positioned to lead bot scripting for tools like live chat software. That’s due to the intricate, oddly human way that bot interactions work.

Chatbots are underpinned by a “decision tree” that’s built to direct customers to the results they need. AI has advanced this tree by introducing highly reliable speech to text. This creates “text tags” that are more effective at directing users where they need to go. Chatbot scripters can take this even further by tailoring each tree to meet unique customer needs. Their customer empathy and experience can help them find the most relevant customer keywords to move users throughout the tree.

Businesses that invest in hiring chatbot scripters stand to earn huge gains. If the right “navigator” can be hired to direct customers through the chatbot tree, then the next wave of customer interactions might have much less friction. The combination of human talent with smart machines means that contextual data can be used to skip steps in the tree as needed. It could even detect when user frustration signals the need for a human representative.

This is important since customers aren’t sold on chatbots yet. Research conducted by GetApp earlier this year found that more than one in three customers (37 percent) value talking to a person above all else. By contrast, just 12 percent prefer having no human contact at all.

These results imply that while customers expect better service, they don’t trust robots alone to provide it. They still value a human touch that understands their needs. To bring this to life, businesses of all sizes should hire chatbot scripters with deep customer and business insights.

These essential skills are not within the scope of a traditional programmer’s role. That’s why Gartner’s forecast for the future of AI confirms previous

50

predictions that to have a job in the automation age, employees must use strategy and communications skills that a robot can’t replace.

“Smart machines won’t run themselves, no matter what the movies and TV have shown since Fritz Lang’s Metropolis,” Gartner’s report says. “AI continues to drive change in how businesses and governments interact with customers and constituents. And our 2017 predictions show that the humans—as is always the case in computing change—are the pivot on which AI can turn.”

About the author: Lauren Maffeo covers trends in the project management, finance, and accounting software industries for GetApp, a Gartner company.

She focuses her research on strategies and tools to help small and midsize businesses create unique value. Lauren previously covered technology trends for The Guardian and The Next Web.

51

TOMORROW’S GLOBAL WORKERS NEED GLOBAL EDUCATION TODAY By: Stacie Nevadomski Berdan

I

n order for today’s young people to succeed, they must develop the flexible qualities of character and mind necessary to handling the challenges that globalization poses. To become global citizens, they must learn how to communicate and interact with people around the world. Failing to teach them to embrace it for all it is worth will only condemn them to being left further behind since millions of others throughout the rest of the world will.

In order to give our young people the best opportunity to thrive in the new global world, we need to give them a global education. A global education provides learners with the opportunity and competencies to reflect and share their own point of view and role with a global, interconnected society, as well as to understand and discuss complex relationships of common social, ecological, political and economic issues, so as to develop new ways of thinking. Global learning should start at a young age, with the introduction of learning foreign languages and about other cultures throughout the K-12 curriculum. And it should extend to the expectation that all college students should be able to have an international experience during their college careers–either study abroad or an international internship, volunteer or experiential learning opportunity.

“Young Americans will depend on and most likely work in a world far beyond our borders,” said Dr. Allan E. Goodman, President and CEO of the Institute of International Education. “Early exposure to different languages and cultures prepares young people for the constant transformation that will be required in their future careers. Acquiring the kind of intercultural communication skills that today’s employers value will offer them an economic, as well as intellectual advantage.”

In the words of a Committee for Economic Development Report, “Globalization is driving the demand for a U.S. workforce that possesses knowledge of other 53

countries and cultures and is competent in languages other than English…

Most of the growth potential for U.S. businesses lies in overseas markets [while] our own markets are facing greater competition from foreign-owned firms, many of which manufacture products on U.S. soil.” Goldman-Sachs predicts that by 2030, when today’s toddlers are slated to finish college, the four BRIC nations [Brazil, Russia, India, and China] will own more global gross domestic product (GDP) than the G7 [the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan]. The National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends Report shows that China will surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy by that same year. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that by 2050, the E7 [China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey] will be more than 50% larger than the G7 countries when measured by GDP at market exchange rates.

Tomorrow’s college graduates are just as likely to compete for jobs in and with people from as far away as Beijing, and Bangalore, as they are from Boston or Boise. But the ability to work across cultures is no longer a nice-to-have skill set for elite executives or diplomats; every year it becomes more essential to finding any job at all. A machine operator at a plant in Wichita that exports aircraft parts to Brazil needs to know how to interact effectively when Brazilian customers visit. A nurse’s aide at a Houston hospital who serves a large Hispanic community has to deal with family members in ways that encourage, rather than discourage, patient compliance with doctor’s orders. A farmer in Western Pennsylvania can open up potentially rich new revenue streams by understanding exactly what qualities in wild-crafted American ginseng appeal most to the Korean market. The examples go on and on.

Unfortunately, not enough young Americans have the skills and aptitudes that global organizations feel they need. One HR executive quoted in a Randstad study called American students “strong technically” but “cross-culturally shortchanged” and “linguistically deprived.”

“Having the opportunity to learn about other countries at a young age–and even better, to prepare them to study abroad as part of their college education– opens students’ eyes to a new way of thinking about the world, instilling a more informed approach to problem-solving in cross-cultural contexts,” advised Goodman. “Today’s students need as much international exposure as they can get whether they wish to work in business, government, academia or in the notfor-profit sector. Currently, only about 10% of college graduates will have studied abroad by the time they graduate. It is our ambitious goal to double the number of students studying abroad by the end of the decade, in order to be better prepared to succeed in the global economy.”

54

Neither global education nor learning a second language is a component of the standard American school curriculum. Research on global education shows that it benefits general education by supporting critical thinking, especially in terms of encouraging a consideration of multiple perspectives, a skill identified in much research as supporting success across a range of academic disciplines and careers. According to the National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) Global Trends Report, the reflective practices and consideration of varying perspectives that well-designed global education programs foster have been demonstrated to support analytical skills in all areas of education.

Global education should begin as early as possible and extend through college or university to include study abroad – study abroad that includes the proper preparation, intervention on the ground and reintegrating guidance once back on campus. Studying abroad takes global learning up a notch in that it requires students to get out of their comfort zones and experience another culture and education system firsthand. Studying abroad shouldn’t be considered as a tangential or separate part of the college education, but as an integral part of it.

The landscape of study abroad has changed significantly in recent years.

With more flexible and accessible options, the barriers previously posed by disabilities, race and ethnicity, sexual orientation and financial need are crumbling. Scholarships and financial aid make programs more affordable.

Excellent, substantive programs and inspiring role models exist for every type of student in all academic fields, and it is important that parents and educators encourage them to take advantage of these opportunities. Study abroad and experiential education abroad should be seen as the capstone experience or culmination of a lifetime of global learning.

Clearly, those who are best prepared for the new realities of the job market are the ones most likely to first be hired, and then to succeed. And of course, more than any other kind of work, finding solutions to global problems requires the ability to forge solutions through international dialogue and collaboration.

We need global education to develop global workers who will make a positive difference in the world.

About the author: Stacie Nevadomski Berdan is a seasoned global executive and award-winning author of four books on the intersection of globalization and careers. A Student Guide to Study Abroad was published by the Institute of International Education (IIE) in 2013. Her work has appeared in leading newspapers and magazines, and she frequently speaks on college campuses. www.stacieberdan.com

55

WELCOME TO THE SECOND HUMAN POTENTIAL MOVEMENT: HOW THE DIGITAL ENLIGHTENMENT HAS CREATED A NEW ERA OF TALENTISM By: Lucian Tarnowski

M

ark Twain once said, “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.” Let’s recognize the unique moment in history that we currently find ourselves.

We are experiencing the Second Human Potential Movement, and this time it has the potential to be much more inclusive. The first Human Potential Movement started in the 1960’s with places like Esalen in Big Sur and people like Aldous Huxley, Abraham Maslow, and Alan Watts. It was formed around the belief that humans have extraordinary untapped potential that can be cultivated to enable our lives to be filled with happiness, creativity, and fulfillment.

Now we are experiencing a similar Enlightenment moment. However, there is something historically unique about this moment–technology is democratizing access to it. The Internet is enabling much larger numbers than ever before to benefit from this “Digital Enlightenment” period, which is giving birth to the Second Human Potential Movement.

Not all moments throughout history were equally important. We see moments that matter, moments that shaped the arc of history. When one studies those moments we notice two things in particular: 1. Location matters. All enlightenment periods happened in a geographically hyper-located place. Think Rome, Athens, Venice, Florence, London, and so on.

57

2. Community matters. When we look through the history of any moment that mattered, we see that every person that played a role in shaping the time somehow was friends with all the other influential people of their time. Think about Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle. Think Da Vinci, Michelangelo, and the Medici’s. Think Freud and Jung. Think of Paris in the 1920’s with Hemingway, Picasso, Fitzgerald, Dali, and Stein.

Throughout history we can see these two points as a constant. This leads to the question–Why would this Enlightenment period be any different? I would argue that its not. We still have a small number of individuals that are writing the history of our time–people like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, and Elon Musk. Notice how they also all know each other, and location remains equally important. The difference is that the fruits of their creations are now accessible to billions of people. We are experiencing the most inclusive Enlightenment period in history.

What is the impact of this Enlightenment period on our lives? As we enter a Machine Age, we need to ask whether we are creating a positive, abundant world or if we are in danger of creating a negative and destructive world. Are we creating something the dystopian futurist writers warned us about—are we creating an Elysium, a Brave New World, or something like 1984? We are experiencing an era of unprecedented wealth creation, but unfortunately it is not as inclusive as it should be. The prospect of machines taking over the jobs of billions of people is a very real one, and one that we need to be extremely cognizant of.

Professor Klaus Schwab, Creator of the World Economic Forum, has argued that the leading economic ideology is shifting from Capitalism to Talentism—a new era where human capital has become more important to countries, cities, and companies than financial capital. Professor Schwab argued, “Capital is being superseded by creativity and the ability to innovate—and therefore by human talents—as the most important factors of production. If talent is becoming the decisive competitive factor, we can be confident in stating that capitalism is being replaced by “Talentism.” Just as capital replaced manual trades during the process of industrialization, capital is now giving way to human talent.”

I remain optimistic that as our primary economic ideology shifts to “Talentism,” we are in fact giving birth to a Second Human Potential Movement. But as with any other major society shift throughout history there are winners and losers. Change gives birth to opportunity, but it is important to be on the right side of change.

Humans have always made sense of the world in which we find ourselves through the communities we belong to. In many ways technology has had a 58

destructive impact on our communities and has left people searching for the meaning behind it all. It is my hope that we will “go back to the future” and see a re-emergence of strong and supportive communities both offline and online. It is through our communities that we can provide ourselves with the context and knowledge with which to stay relevant and be on the right side of this change.

The choices society makes about how we leverage technology, artificial intelligence, and the Machine Age will shape the whether the future of our world will be a positive or a negative experience. As Franklin D. Roosevelt said, “The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much it is whether we provide enough for those who have little.” The Second Human Potential Movement should provide an opportunity to create a more inclusive and abundant world.

About the author: Lucian Tarnowski is the Founder and CEO of Brave New. He was recognized by the World Economic Forum as a Young Global Leader.

59

EMPLOYMENT REMAINS ELUSIVE FOR RESETTLED REFUGEES By: Molly McCluskey

Z

ATAARI REFUGEE CAMP. Here, in one of the world’s largest refugee camps, a thriving marketplace named Champs Elysees rivals those found in Istanbul or Athens, or even the Paris thoroughfare after which it’s named. Where once was only dirt, residents have opened market stands, or barber shops, or bakeries. When the city of Amsterdam donated 500 bicycles to the camp, entrepreneurs opened bicycle repair shops. It’s a testimony not only to the resiliency of the refugees stranded here year after year, but to their refusal to sit idle.

It’s a quality that stands in stark contrast to the reality of many refugees once they leave the camps; whether settled into nearby urban centers or across the world in a new country, many struggle to find employment, and are forced to depend on charity, government stipends, or other, less reputable means of subsistence.

The dream of resettlement—and subsequent employment—propels many refugees. But while nations around the world debate how many refugees to take in, and from which country and/or crisis, many fail to integrate employment plans into the mix. The result is a generation of refugees struggling to assimilate through one of the most universal of human desires—that of meaningful work.

In Jordan alone, 85 percent of the Syrian refugees are living outside of camps such as Zataari, in the country’s urban centers. “Most of the refugees living in urban areas are in debt. Ninety three percent are living below the poverty line,” Aoife McDonald, an external relations director with UNHCR Jordan, told Diplomatic Courier. “They use their savings attempting to reach safety, then go into debt waiting for their asylum to be processed.”

60

According to a report issued by the UNHCR, Syrian refugees are borrowing funds from friends and family, shopkeepers, and landlords for basic needs— rent, food, utilities—and those seemingly small amounts loom larger as they can’t be repaid. Many opt not to receive medical care because of the costs, and are reducing the number of meals they eat per day. When assistance does come, it’s barely enough to keep the roof over their heads, let alone help them get ahead of what they owe.

Even those lucky enough to make their way to an economically prosperous country often find the cycle of poverty continues.

Germany has absorbed more than 1.1 million migrants since the beginning of 2015, from the Middle East, Africa, and other economically-challenged or wartorn nations. But by January 2016, only 13 percent of them had found employment.

“What we know from the administrative data is that the majority of these people, irrespective of their educational background in their home country, are working in hotels, restaurants, these kind of sectors, and other kind of service occupations, like cleaning and security,” Dr. Ehsan Vallizadeh, a research associate at the German Federal Employment Agency’s Institute for Employment Research (IAB) told Diplomatic Courier. “One key issue is that they might not have an educational background, or if they do have an educational background, they might not have their certificates, because they left them behind or they were destroyed.”

The German government offers language classes and vocational training courses for refugees, however, the courses are managed by different branches of the government. Integrating them under one department would allow for faster integration of the labour market, and assimilation in general.

“The language barriers are also much higher for this group because they have only recently come to Germany, so irrespective of their educational background, they have to first learn the German language, which is not an easy language, so they face different types of limitations,” Vallizadeh said.

In nearby Switzerland, applicants seeking asylum are prohibited from working for at least three, and up to six months, after filing their application. After the first six months, “the applicant can be authorized to take up a temporary gainful employment if the economic and labour market situation allows it and if the wage and working conditions and the priority accorded to nationals are respected,” according to the State Secretariat for Migration. According to Stefan Frey, the spokesperson at the non-profit organization Schweizerische Flüchtlingshilfe in Bern, these barriers can be too difficult for many refugees to navigate.

61

“About 50 percent of asylum seekers receive only a provisional admission to Switzerland,” Frey says. “They can work but the obstacles are considerable because they need permission, and the employer also needs to demand a permission to engage them, and they have to pay an extra tax for employing somebody with provisional admission.”

This tax, which accounts for 10 percent of the income of the worker, must be paid to the Secretariat of Migration. “Officially it’s the employer who makes the transfer of money, but it’s dedicated from the salary. And this amount is up to 15,000 Swiss francs that must be paid by the employee,” Frey says. “This makes the procedure very complicated and this is a real obstacle for employers to engage somebody with a provisional visa.”

“Politically we don’t want Switzerland to make it a practice for refugees to come to Switzerland. This is one of the reasons that until now these conditions are very severe against especially provisional admission,” Frey says.

While there are some discussions in Switzerland about changing the political landscape to open the labour market for more provisional visa holders, traditionally, there have been policies to limit migration to the Alpine nation.

“The Swiss economy has more and more difficulties to receive a sufficient number of workers as a result of these policies.”

While applications for asylum are approved, or rejected at the national level, it’s the role of the individual cantons—the 26 member states of the Swiss confederation—to see to assimilation. While the federal government provides funding for many programs, it provides no requirements on the offerings.

Consequently, laws and programs can vary greatly per canton.

“It depends a little bit on the political atmosphere. In some cantons, the extreme right party is very strong, and you’ll not find a very strong will to improve the life of refugees,” Frey says. “Each canton can more or less do what it wants.”

And herein lies one of the greatest conundrums of the world’s massive refugee crisis: because obtaining permission to remain, in any of its forms, is often such a difficult task the world over, people are hesitant to forfeit it in the search for employment in another country. To do so begins the often years-long process from the beginning, again with no certainty of finding meaningful work at the end of it.

“Many people, especially with provisional visas, never find a work place, and therefore they have to be integrated into the social system, which produces enormous cost,” Frey says.

62

In Switzerland, supporting one adult entirely by social services can cost between 25,000-35,000 Swiss francs per year. Providing language courses, vocational training, and other assimilation support services carries a significantly lesser cost, both on an annual basis, and over the lifetime of an average refugee.

Like in Germany, language barriers create a challenge in Switzerland, even more so with its three national languages. And like Germany, there is a delay while refugees await news of their status. Essentially wasted time now, Frey suggests that time is better spent if refugees are allowed to engage in language courses immediately, before their status is approved or even denied.

“The real problem in Switzerland is not the arrival of refugees,” Frey says.

“The real issue is the integration of these people.”

Here, at Zataari, it’s nearly impossible to believe that the people who escaped a civil war, made their way into a new country, and helped build a city where once was only dirt, wouldn’t be able to find meaningful work through sheer willpower and dedication. That their wits, and education, and work ethic wouldn’t be enough to help them start a new life in a new country.

But few people could be plucked out of one life and dropped into another— another culture, another language, another climate, another social circle— without guidance. Few would think ahead, as the bombs were dropping and shots were being fired, to bring more than the clothes on their back, to bring copies of their educational records and multiple forms of identification. Few walked in the dead of night across the border while listening to German or French or English lessons on their earbuds. Few expected to have to integrate into a labour market that wouldn’t want them, except, if they were lucky, as housecleaners, or security guards, or hoteliers.

“When you ask them how long they expected to be gone, they’ll tell you weeks,” McDonald says. “Many of them have been here for years.”

63

THE GRAVEYARD OF EMPLOYMENT AND THE FUTURE OF JOBS By: Bailey Piazza

L

ooking upon the graveyard of fluorescently lit cubicles abandoned by a generation of the tele-abled, the “new machine age” has revolutionized the way we work and demands a reevaluation of the Future of Jobs. With each groundbreaking innovation unleashed unto the world, labor becomes more and more obsolete while society benefits. Given the current trajectory, the journey to 2050 encroaches upon the job market with each new advancement in technology, economics, education, and war.

A crowd of voices have attempted to define what the future of jobs looks like. On one side of the debate, Digital Optimists champion robots replacing humans in the workplace, resulting in human flourishing, as people will have more free time to do what they enjoy with more technology to benefit the entire world and bring individuals together. New York Times columnist Ross Douthat predicts “a society where leisure becomes universally accessible, where part-time jobs replace the regimented workweek, and where living standards keep rising even though more people have left the work force altogether.”

Digital Pessimists, however, maintain that replacing human labor with robots will mean labor is no longer enough to achieve social mobility, the social gap will increase between those who have technological jobs and those who do not. Ethical thought will be at risk as more people focus on the next technological advancement and less on the impact it will have on humanity. David Thompson, senior editor at The Atlantic, sees “… an era of technological unemployment, in which computer scientists and software engineers essentially invent us out of work, and the total number of jobs declines steadily and permanently.” When predicting the future of the cybernetic world, the plot runs both ways: grand or grim.

64

The Technological Dimension With over 47% of today’s jobs susceptible to computerization, we are confronted with the reality of a world where the majority of people are unemployed because of technology. This allows output of products to increase, prices to drop, volume/ quality of products to exponentially increase in a state of abundance. In the case of the world’s most common jobs (i.e. retail, cashiers, clerks, and drivers), computerization of these jobs means scores of unemployed people who do not need to work anymore to survive.

Without a 40-hour workweek to fulfill, humans have more time and resources to dedicate to innovation, and inventing better medical technology means we live longer, healthier lives. However, without an earned salary, there is no means to purchase the abundance of goods, even if prices are low. Humans loose a sense of purpose without work. In the case of Youngstown, Ohio, where once-ubiquitous manufacturing jobs shifted overseas, the sudden regional economic depression resulted in a cultural collapse, breeding depression, suicide, spousal abuse, higher crime rates/incarcerations, and mental health cases.

Limitless information technology can expedite the deterioration of our health as well, rewiring our brains to retrieve information quickly but not retain or deeply digest ideas, a condition similar to dementia patients.

The Economic Dimension Offering labor in a 2050 machine market will be exceedingly difficult as computerization rivals human intelligence and efficiency. In 2008, approximately half of the 7.55 million jobs that disappeared in Europe were mid-wage positions.

A society without work (and thus an earned income) will continue to drive down the median income, as it has been for the past 16 years by approximately three percent. This causes the socioeconomic gap to increase and inequality and polarization in the world’s societies to skyrocket.

To reduce tremendous gaps between classes in the present day, Germany, Sweden, and Canada have provided universal/guaranteed national incomes (GNI), which other countries may replicate in the future. A GNI is an unconditional, regularly given lump sum of income to subsidize the existing capital flow of the individual. GNI can be provided either by the government or other public institutions to everyone, regardless of their bracket or means requirements. It replaces the welfare system with a simple, transparent, effective program, allowing people the freedom to buy what they need and want with the money they now have. A GNI could also reduce government paternalism in the lives of

65

poorer people, who would now have to learn financial skills not available through in-kind aid.

It is argued that under the guaranteed income system, the future economy can survive and technology will maintain its flourishing. People will continue to enjoy plentiful resources to buy and enjoy the constant creation of new technology, thus closing class gaps altogether.

However, some democratic countries are heavily resistant to socialism making the likelihood of universal income laws being passed by government improbable.

A guaranteed income could mean the collapse of social mobility with no means of promotion, locking people in a social class. A GNI is also an expensive undertaking, costing just the U.S., for example, $4.4 trillion.

The Education Dimension Sixty-five percent of children entering primary school this year will ultimately end up working in completely new jobs that have yet to be created. To prepare young students for this still-invisible job market, educational systems will encounter substantial overhaul, computerizing classrooms and restructuring curricula.

The past decade has seen a big push on STEM disciplines, since a constellation of actors—from educators to employers—assert STEM will solve the unemployment problems many countries are facing. As a result, since 2007, there has been a 48% increase of university students majoring in STEM subjects.

Echoing the evocations of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, while pushing children of the future to pursue STEM careers, society is in danger of starving the next generation intellectually by robbing them of the exposure to liberal arts. One UK study observes that kids who use their home Internet, play video games, or are otherwise fixated on a screen for more than four hours/day do not have the same sense of mental wellbeing, emotional/social intelligence, and ability to retain information long-term as those who use that technology for less than an hour/day.

With so much focus on the scientific and technological innovation of learning in the classroom, humanities are pushed to the background. As more dangerous technology is created, teaching ethics encourages students to question how technology could benefit/inhibit society. Backgrounds in political science, sociology, semantics, communications, human rights, and theology combined with software and computer engineering provide the technical and ethical backgrounds employers of the future will desire for the sake of the business and preservation of values irreplaceable by science.

66

Forward to 2050!

In 2050, we can expect machinery like networks of Hyperloops around the world propelling travelers at 700 mph between cities via magnets. Clothing and prosthetics that give the human body new abilities will fly off department store shelves. Space expeditions will send people to Mars and beyond. Artificial intelligence, like Google’s Deepmind project, will mimic human consciousness, opening the doors to entirely new branches of technology.

The economics of the Post-Employment World will challenge the way society makes, spends, and spreads capital. A new economic order will be established with China topping the charts and India rivaling among the top five global economies. With technological and economical advancement, our society must educate upcoming generations to adapt to a reshaping of culture, often heavily based on the religion of labor.

Books will be fossilized as digitization claims their place. Children will experience a digital divide that limits intellectual capacity and the ability to understand why such technology was needed at all. Finally, as countries improve their military methods and equipment, the threat of such technology in possible war scenarios is a theoretical yet valid fear, especially as autonomous weapons are in the process of being banned before their prototypes have been finalized.

The midcentury poses many woes and wonders for the world. Now is the time to prepare for and carefully co-create our world of 2050.

67

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES WILL ACHIEVE EMPLOYMENT EQUITY FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES By: Lauren Maffeo

Y

ou would be forgiven for worrying that a robot might steal your job.

Entrepreneur Daniel Nadler predicts that between 33 and 50 percent of financiers will lose their jobs to automation software by 2026. And U.S. President Barack Obama’s February 2016 economic report to Congress showed an 0.83 median probability that the lowest-paid workers will see their jobs be automated.

But what if emerging technologies are actually the key to increase employment for those who have often been excluded from the workforce? A new report published by Gartner makes the case that techniques like voice recognition and machine vision will not only help people with disabilities enter the workforce they will make disability obsolete.

In Maverick* Research: From Disability to Superability, Society and the Workplace Are Changing (content available to Gartner clients), authors Melanie Lougee, Andrew Johnson, and Pete Basiliere write that people with disabilities are benefiting from diverse technologies that are being adapted to their unique needs. This is occurring alongside cultural shifts that prioritize diversity and flexible work. Their projected end result is that emerging technologies will allow 350 million people with disabilities to enter the global workforce over the next decade.

“The International Labour Organization estimates that there are 785 million people of working age (15 to 59 years old) with disabilities,” the report reads.

“160 million currently participate in the workforce. 350 million could participate given advances in technology.” If this forecast proves to be correct, emerging technologies will help the global workforce employ a total of 520 million people with disabilities. This number would match the general population’s workforce participation rate.

69

Lougee is quick to clarify that she believes the issue of technology as a threat to jobs is a separate issue from equally employing people with disabilities. The report also admits that growth will be slow at first, and employment of people with disabilities will vary depending on which countries and sectors people work in.

But Lougee also believes that the rise of remote work - coupled with growth in certain sectors and increased emphasis on diversity initiatives - offers new ways to grow the talents of people with disabilities.

“If certain job markets grow or decline, the impact to both [people with disabilities] and people without disabilities would be the same,” Lougee explains. “So if technology prompts a decline in low-skilled jobs or growth in other areas, everyone would be impacted the same.

“The jobs [for people with disabilities] may not come primarily from lowskilled jobs if those opportunities shrink, but there could be a lot more growth from jobs that can now be done remotely. Customer service reps, freelancers, or claims processors are all high growth job markets which could all be supported by now available accessibility technologies.”

The concept of disability defines the intersection between human limitations and societal barriers. Disabilities range from genetic disorders that begin in utero (like Down syndrome) to physical injuries later in life (like losing a limb in a car crash). It therefore follows that the technologies and processes used to assist people with disabilities at work will be equally diverse. This is not an abstract idea with no proof of concept. Some tools and workforce initiatives are helping people with disabilities prosper at work today.

“HR software vendors are already moving beyond the bare minimum of meeting compliance standards by including features such as voice controlled self-service transactions or virtual reality adapters,” Lougee says. “There is also a proliferation of highly innovative apps being built out for iOS and Android devices that can perform a variety of functions such as translating impaired speech to easily recognizable speech (Talkitt) or translating visual to audio (Aipoly).”

Examples of balancing apprentice training for in-demand roles with holistic HR practices also exist today. The Gartner report cites Autism at Work - a program launched by enterprise software giant SAP - as one example. In 2013, SAP partnered with Danish company Specialisterne to help design and find candidates for the Autism at Work program. Specialisterne provides software

70

testing, quality control, and data conversion for businesses. The company also teaches these same skills to people with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).

Together, SAP and Specialisterne designed a holistic program to recruit, onboard, provide peer networks, and offer support to people with ASD. Three years later, SAP has hired more than 100 people with ASD to work in roles across HR, finance, IT, and marketing. One of them filed for a patent within one year of employment.

The report’s most bold claim is its assertion that emerging technologies will erase the concept of disability. The cost of such technologies has already dropped drastically; mechanical hands can now be 3D-printed from home for a mere $25. And Gartner’s 2016 Hype Cycle for Human-Machine Interface predicts that many of the most crucial technologies - including gesture control devices and emotion recognition - will reach mainstream status within 10 years.

Mainstream technologies become more affordable and widely integrated into other popular tech tools. Both factors are crucial for people with disabilities.

All of this will lead technology to do the opposite of what many fear: create new employment opportunities and mitigate disabilities via mass adoption.

Rather than worrying what machines will take, we should create new tools and nurture company cultures to harness untapped opportunities.

About the author: Lauren Maffeo covers trends in the project management, finance, and accounting software industries for GetApp, a Gartner company.

She focuses her research on strategies and tools to help small and midsize businesses create unique value. Lauren previously covered technology trends for The Guardian and The Next Web.

71

THE NEED FOR LIBERAL ARTS IN THE POST-EMPLOYMENT WORLD By: Constance St.Germain

A

t the intersection of politics, technology and economics is education and the need to prepare students to succeed not only in a global society, but also in a “post-employment world,” in which technology replaces work humans have traditionally performed. However, as technology continues to increase and influence our daily lives, little has yet been done to address its long-ranging implications and potentially negative impact on the workforce. As artificial intelligence continues to evolve, the Internet of Things continues to expand and reliance on robotic technology increases, more jobs will become automated under the guise of operational efficiency.

What happens when these jobs disappear? Such an economic breakdown could lead to a variety of issues such as the decentralization of “work” as the defining feature of an adult’s life, as well as social, psychological and financial implications to individuals. It could also force a cultural shift in how we define “work” as a society. On the negative side, the resulting job loss in a postemployment world has potential physical and mental ramifications, negative financial impact related to governmental support services and individual consumerism, and alters the very fabric of society. On the positive side, it can provide people with more free time to pursue their passions, take care of their families and give back their communities.

So what does this mean for workers? What skills should they cultivate, if they want to be relevant and ready for a post-employment world?

Education prepares students for the future. As technology advances at a breakneck speed, employers who formerly placed great emphasis on technical skills have begun to embrace the value of a liberal arts education. Liberal arts study has always focused on developing an individual’s intellectual ability through a knowledge of a broad range of subjects. This empowers students to 73

deal with complexity, promotes critical thinking and social responsibility, and develops problem solving and communication skills across a wide variety of settings. It provides students with a strong foundation, allowing them to be agile and adapt to changing circumstances in an ever-changing world.

A liberal arts education ensures that we not only have knowledge of the past, but provides skill sets that are fundamentally tied to our human nature such as empathy, relationship building, adaptability, conscientiousness, perseverance, and creativity. These skills form the foundation of our social fabric and are nearly impossible to replicate with technology.

Evidence of the growing importance of soft skills can be seen in recent study by the Pew Research Center, which showed the strongest future employment growth projected for jobs requiring above average social skills. Additionally, the National Association of Colleges and Employers’ most recent First-Destination Survey noted an uptick in employment and salaries among humanities graduates between 2014 and 2015. Of even more importance, in 2015, graduates of area studies (e.g. cultural or gender studies), who entered the workforce full-time did so at a starting salary 26 percent higher than the previous year, marking the biggest increase of any category considered.

Not only is employment growth more rapid in jobs requiring a high level of social skills, but STEM fields are taking note of the value-add a liberal arts education brings to the table. There is a talent war afoot in the technology field and employees with non-technical backgrounds are highly sought after: as one recent article quipped: “The next hot job in Silicon Valley is speechwriting.” The recognition that technological skills alone aren’t enough to prepare our workforce has led to a growing movement to add the arts into STEM education— also known as STEAM. History itself suggests that technological progress and the movement toward the post-workforce economy, can spur progress and opportunity for those well trained in the humanities. It is important to remember that the Renaissance was an age of great progress in both the arts and sciences. In our current age, technological advancement should be viewed as an opportunity to provide society with greater bandwidth to engage in inquiry and art. In the postemployment world, there should be more time spent engaging with people, culture and ideas. A post-employment society will require social interaction and community building. Technology alone cannot cure serious challenges facing humanity (e.g. poverty, homelessness, mental illness, drug addiction, criminal rehabilitation) and it cannot replace true emotional connection; however, it can enhance and help provide solutions to some of our greater societal challenges.

74

The majority of students at University of Phoenix are working adults seeking to enhance their careers and provide a better life for their families. The institution takes a holistic approach to teaching and learning in that its curriculum is not only career-relevant, but also provides the soft skills employers are seeking in today’s workforce. The world is changing, and University of Phoenix is ready to meet this change head on to ensure its students are developing the skills to change with it. Whether pursuing a degree in the arts and sciences, social sciences, healthcare, business, or technology, the institution is committed to empowering its students with the kind of knowledge needed to help them navigate a post-employment society.

About the author: Constance St. Germain, Ed.D., J.D. is Executive Dean, Colleges of Humanities & Sciences and Social Sciences at the University of Phoenix.

75

CREATING TOMORROW’S TALENT: TRANSPORTING HUMAN POTENTIAL By: Saul Garlick

T

he global workforce is playing a game of chutes and ladders. Each of us starts on our own ground floor. Some start life towards the top, though most do not.

In today’s economy, individuals are neither doomed to their starting ladder, nor able to stay on it if they desire to. Rather, every one of us is required to hop to other ladders – to collaborate, to iterate, to explore – to make progress.

As a result, our workforce continues to suffer. The 2016 US election reflected a widespread dissatisfaction with business as usual among working and middle class Americans that can be summed up in a word: frustration. Frustrated were the millions who felt that their economic gains were being taken from them in the form of higher prices on health care. Frustrated were the millions who feel encumbered by debt and have limited access to educational opportunities and career advancement.

The same sentiment is felt throughout the world. There are hundreds of millions of people out of work who want a job while there are millions of jobs that go unfilled due to an unskilled workforce. The jobs-skills mismatch is threatening the fabric of democracy across the globe.

The global skills gap, where the people looking for work lack the required skills for the available jobs and those looking to hire are unable to find ready talent, is the largest it has been in human history. We need a new vehicle to transport human potential from today’s ladder to tomorrow’s infinite possibilities.

We need to innovate within the workplace, leveraging the power of technology to enable a solution, gather and analyze data, and work with the public sector and non-governmental organizations to develop employee capacity. The urgency is for soft skills leadership, communication and collaboration to become common capabilities throughout the workforce.

77

Here’s how the doomsday story reads if we fail to meet the moment: As the global population grows to a staggering 10 billion people by 2050, an overburdened education system will falter and the absolute number of individuals that lack the necessary skills to be competitive will rapidly rise.

Meanwhile the connected and educated will continue to capture value, selling and reselling to the wealthy but desperately seeking new markets where populations are expanding, not shrinking or stagnant. Major firms will want to make money by operating in Africa, South Asia or Latin America but wages in those places will have stagnated because the value an employee with few skills can provide will never justify substantial raises. Just the same, the population gets larger, less educated by percentage, and ultimately, the world ends up with a frustrated youth population that deems its future hopeless. Unemployment grows from 95 million to 500 million in short order as more people are left out of the exclusive club of critical thinkers and soft-skill doers.

Come to think of it, hasn’t this story been the seed of every revolution or global disruption caused by terrorists and insurgents?

The alternative is more compelling and can be solved through creativity and the application of simple technology solutions in the appropriate learning context to meet low skilled workers where they are, and upskill them.

Take the example of a distributor of healthcare products in the developing world. With smartphones, employees can get continuous training on the job, starting in positions that require basic skills or even experiencing immersive learning programs at the beginning of their job to get daily guidance and learning by doing. This type of learning will not only add new skills to the employee’s repertoire, it will empower them to further engage in their work and build loyalty and commitment around the firm while reducing turnover that costs firms millions in retraining and recruitment efforts. This will be particularly critical for the millions of jobs that require soft skills, ethics and collaboration.

Most of the talk around education innovation assumes that employees need to show up prepared to conquer the tasks at hand – after all you are paying them to bring value to the firm. The thinking goes that if we can create colleges, universities or vocational training programs that are better, leaner and freer then we can prepare the massive and growing population for tomorrows workforce. Spotted across the developing world are institutes, universities, conferences, programs and trainings that are designed to prepare otherwise unprepared individuals for jobs that pay a decent wage.

This logic is actually getting in the way of profit and some sectors are getting wise to this reality. There are high skilled positions that do not benefit from 4 78

years of a college education. Not surprisingly, disruption is coming from the tech sector. Rather than complete 4 years of college, some tech schools teach coding for 6 months at an affordable rate and build job acquisition into the program itself. Those who don’t get jobs don’t pay for the education. This feels materially similar to the vocational training model applied to high skills work (coding) but also integrates seamlessly with the jobs of the future.

Consider the prestigious rotational programs offered at many of the world’s largest firms from IBM to Johnson and Johnson and even governments like the US Department of State. In each of these places of work, high potential individuals are given the opportunity to work within different departments of the same company, hopping from ladder to ladder for two years, and developing a set of cross-departmental skills that make them more valuable as strategic thinkers and more networked across the firm.

When I founded Unleesh, I knew there was a massive problem that needed to be solved that began with the dignity of a job. Unleesh is a technology platform in the form of a web and mobile app, on a mission to solve the global skills gap.

The problem is borderless and reaches every industry. Unleesh recognizes its role and responsibility as a convener of partnerships that bring together brilliant 21st century learning content, data analytics and investment in partnerships with corporations, governments, non-profits, academia, and others to make sure that every person who wants a job gets a job that they will, ultimately, earn.

By using Unleesh as a technology platform, companies, governments and NGOs can supplant the traditional expectations around job readiness and build that capacity internally and to their specific requirements. The collection of data from employee learning uncovers myriad opportunities for speeding up the learning process, upskilling workers to leapfrog into roles that they are not yet qualified for. The ability to engage populations regardless of geography opens the door for empowering women and engaging populations that have been left behind by traditional education systems.

The only resource on earth that is unlimited is human potential. No government or company can afford to be left behind.

About the author: An internationally respected entrepreneur and leader who had the idea for the workforce development technology platform, Unleesh, while sitting in a rural village in Africa during a program with another company he founded, ThinkImpact, where he currently serves as Chairman. He also serves as President of More Than Me, which is building a public charter school network in Liberia.

79

THE FUTURE OF TALENT: UNDERSTANDING WHAT DRIVES GENERATION Z By: Ana C. Rold

G

eneration Z: despite the fact that they are often described as one of the most tech-savvy and entrepreneurial generations to date, there is surprisingly little information about this up-and-coming generation compared to their predecessors. With the oldest just beginning to enter adulthood and the youngest still toddling their way through babyhood, it is difficult to say exactly how Gen Z will influence the future of jobs. But factors such as technology, the economy and a shifting belief system are beginning to reveal how the prototypical Gen Z-er may behave, with a focus on self-reliance, cautious economic practices, and technology-centered communication. While the future remains foggy, one thing is certain: Gen Z is forecasted to reach 2.56 billion people by 2020, and with a current total spending power of $829.5 per year and growing, this generation is at the heart of the coming war for talent.

As the first generation to have truly grown up with in a more intimate way, Gen Z has an exceptional grasp on the digital world. From social media to programming all the way to developing new hardware, Gen Z’s understanding of, and dependence on technology has created a unique set of characteristics that future employers will ultimately benefit from. First, Gen Z are multitasking gurus—with access to mobile phones, computers, and tablets, today’s youth manage to pack a total of 10 hours and 45 minutes’ worth of media content into 7 ½ hours of media usage per day, with a reported 66% of teens using more than one device at any given time. This ability to switch between not only different types of media but also different platforms—such as simultaneously using a mobile phone and a laptop—has created a population of digital natives with the ability to navigate several tasks on several devices at once.

Second, Gen Z’s overall dependence on social media has crafted a generation that is both more socially connected and capable of lightning fast communication than previous generations—surpassing even Millennials. With messaging, social 81

media, and entertainment listed as the top three activities teens say they participate in when accessing the internet, it is easy to see how the digital world has enabled instant, global communication between different social groups.

However, this speedy online communication comes with a price—46% of teachers say these digital tools make students more likely to write carelessly, with 68% concerned that they will decrease this generation’s ability to communicate deeply and effectively. Even more concerning, apprehension about situational awareness and real life social ability leads many to worry about how digital communication will affect interpersonal communication in the real world.

However, Gen Z’s desire for independence and entrepreneurship may be enough to make up for their potential lack of real world social prowess. Indeed, many Gen Z-ers are already beginning to make waves in technology, with applications such as Summly—which uses natural language processing and machine learning to generate news summaries from web pages—being sold for millions of U.S. dollars by teen and even tween moguls. Similarly, avenues such as YouTube channels, online boutiques and even fashion magazines are being created and run successfully by Gen Z-ers all around the world and all under the age of 18, with some as young as 8 years old able to successfully navigate the intricacies of business and begin to turn a profit.

It is this entrepreneurial spirit that will ultimately determine how Gen Z will affect the future of jobs. With a reported 72% of high school students determined to start a business during their lifetime and 61% yearning to work for themselves rather than an employer, Gen Z is posed to create an explosive set of independent, tech-savvy entrepreneurs enabled by their ability to use online resources (including social media) as a research tool along with other forms of technology.

Because they were born into, and influenced by a world of economic uncertainty, studies show that Gen Z tends to be more economically cautious than their daring Millennial predecessors. With over 80% of teens reporting that the economy and how much things cost are the two most harrowing issues they face in today’s world—beating out other issues such as the environment, war, and even terrorism—Gen Z tends to focus more heavily on education and work opportunities in order to safely enter the job marketplace. In fact, it is estimated that 1 in 2 Generation Z-ers will be college-educated, a stark contrast to the 1 in 3 Millennials and 1 in 4 Generation X-ers that have completed a university education.

Despite this strong focus on education, those in Gen Z don’t necessarily want a traditional university experience. A survey by Northeastern University found

82

that nearly ¾ (72%) of those surveyed believed that colleges should allow students to design their own course of study, with nearly half (42%) expecting to work for themselves in their future careers. With an overwhelming 81% stating that college is very or extremely important to having the career they want, it is easy to see that those in Gen Z want a strong—and self-guided— education experience in order to find a job that fulfills both their own individual passions as well as the needs of society.

Perhaps most hopeful of all, Gen Z appears determined to make a difference.

Born into an age of economic uncertainty but with the individual self-confidence and a will to change the world, 38% of teens report that they are confident they will invent something that changes the world, with special focus placed on issues such as the environment, world hunger, and human’s impact on the planet. And Gen Z isn’t just talk—with an estimated 26% of 16 to 19-year-olds currently volunteering, career tracks such as social entrepreneurship and other socially-engaged careers are on the rise.

Ultimately, Gen Z’s innate technological abilities, cautious economic activity and social activism have the potential to not only create a path to success for themselves, but also create the environment necessary to enable real social change. In this age of global talent scarcity and war for talent, the job marketplace needs to prepare and understand this generation’s potential to bring about transformative change.

About the author: Ana C. Rold is Founder and CEO of Diplomatic Courier, a Global Affairs Media Network. She teaches political science courses at Northeastern University and is the Host of The World in 2050–A Forum About Our Future. To engage with her on this article follow her on Twitter @ACRold.

83

BRIDGING THE GLOBAL SKILLS DIVIDE TO DEVELOP A WORKFORCE FOR THE FUTURE By: Allan Goodman & Sharon Witherell

W

ith globalization and technology changing the way the world works and how we work, how can educators and employers prepare today’s students and professionals to succeed in the 21st-century workforce?

Already some forecast that 40 percent of the workforce in the United States— nearly 60 million workers—will be freelance by 2020. Moreover, the upcoming Generation Z tends to be more entrepreneurial and self-directed. At the same time, today’s employers in the United States and around the globe are under strong pressure to find employees who have both the technical knowledge that is in such high demand and “soft skills” such as critical thinking, problem solving, time management and good communication.

Non-traditional employment calls for a new infrastructure, strategy, and attitude for workers, companies, and communities alike, according to Jeremy Neuner, co-author of “The Rise of the Naked Economy.” It may seem like there is a tug of war between companies and workers, he notes, but in fact they share common goals: using technology and mobility to maximize productivity, innovation, and well-being.

The success of the global economy will depend on how well these common goals are met. At IIE, we believe international education has a powerful role to play in bridging the global skills divide to develop the future workforce.

Today, “international education” goes far beyond the traditional concept of academic exchange. In a society that is increasingly interconnected, international education has expanded to encompass any program of study, scholarship or training that involves moving people and ideas from one nation or culture to another in order to gain the profound benefits of intellectual and cultural engagement. Most importantly, in today’s world, international education enables people to go beyond building connections to solving problems together.

85

International experience has become one of the most important components of a 21st century education. At IIE, we believe that individuals who have international experience are best prepared to contribute to the workforce of the future. They bring cross-cultural awareness, which is critical to diverse teams; language skills needed to work with colleagues and customers in a multilingual world; and the ability to bring global thinking skills to bear on complex issues.

Governments are turning to international education to expand research and development and cultivate a national workforce able to compete in the global economy. Socially responsible companies are developing international education strategies to leverage their assets for social impact and cultivate the talent to support innovation and growth and advance their business goals. Universities are building partnerships and creating international programs to expand their worldwide reach and effectiveness. And international opportunities are inspiring students to grow intellectually and professionally and preparing them to flourish in our global society.

At IIE’s Summit on Generation Study Abroad last October, educators from universities around the world joined together with government and corporate leaders to address how to make it possible for more students to access these opportunities, and how to change the paradigm so study abroad is viewed as a necessity rather than a luxury. With only ten percent of U.S. undergraduate students studying abroad, far too many are graduating from college without gaining the international experience they will need.

Worldwide, IIE has had the privilege to work with corporations and foundations to design programs that will develop the next generation of leaders, and to work with governments to meet the diverse training needs of their populations, ensuring that a pipeline of individuals are prepared for in-demand careers.

Initiatives such as WeTech (Women Enhancing Technology) build and support a robust pipeline of women and girls in STEM globally, providing access and skills needed to use technology while becoming innovators and creators who will have the capacity to address industry and society’s most critical challenges.

Designing and leading programs with committed companies like Qualcomm, Goldman Sachs, and Verizon, we have seen the impact of activities that engage women from under-served groups and those who may not otherwise have access to leadership training and professional development opportunities, resulting in significant social and economic returns and expanded workforce participation.

From Qualcomm’s Global Scholars program of scholarships and mentoring in China, India, and Korea, to the Government of Brazil’s Scientific Mobility 86

Program, and USAID’s Scholarships and Training for Egyptian Professionals (STEP) in Egypt, the common goal of many of the hundreds of diverse programs we implement is to build a skilled and entrepreneurial workforce, developing the world’s talent to meet the complex needs of the global market.

There are no limits to the types of opportunities that can be created. We worked with ExxonMobil to develop and manage scholarship and training programs in engineering and geoscience to develop human capacity in countries where they do business around the world. And we helped Alcoa create its Advancing Each Generation: Global Internships for Unemployed Youth to provide workforce development opportunities to nearly 750 unemployed youth in Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Spain, United Kingdom and the United States with the aim of building private-public partnerships to increase their employability through access to work-related experience, leadership skills, and resources on post-secondary career and training education.

IIE team members around the world shape the international exchange experience of some 30,000+ students, scholars, and professional entrusted to us annually, connecting them to beneficial academic and professional opportunities that will enable them to bridge the workforce development gap in many emerging economies, including their host and home countries.

As governments and employers in both developed and emerging economies look to the future, we urge them to consider providing the kind of international education experiences that will enable a new generation of professionals to meet their workforce needs.

About the authors: Allan E. Goodman is president and CEO of the Institute of International Education (IIE)—the leading not-for-profit organization in the field of international educational exchange and development training. Goodman has a PhD in government from Harvard, an MPA from the John F. Kennedy School of Government, and a BS from Northwestern University. Sharon Witherell is Director of Public Affairs at IIE.

87

HOW TO BUILD A STRONGER GLOBAL STEM TALENT MARKETPLACE By: Anders Hedberg

T

he STEM talent pipeline starts in the home of pre-K students and ends in the workplace, but much disappears on the way. Prognostics about future talent needs will force us to plug some leaks and increase the flow, particularly with emphasis on K-12 education.

Since 2000, the OECD has provided comparative information about high school graduates’ readiness for life in 60 countries though PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) reports on student skills in reading, math, science and problem solving, released every three years. TIMSS (Trends in Mathematics and Science Study administered by the National Center for Education Statistics, NCES) adds a picture of progress in 4th and 8th grade student achievement in science and math, also comparing 60 nations, but in four-year increments. Both studies rank countries on all outcomes, and education analysts have flocked to nations that consistently come out on top.

Much has therefore been written about Singapore, Japan and Finland, but little about the low performing nations. They are left to figure out how to catch up, which is heavy lifting since the variations are huge.

OECD and NCES have helped guide our attention to the importance of knowledge and skills of particular importance for the future workforce, namely Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM). Pulling in the same direction, Academies of Science in Australia, Chile, France, Sweden, the U.S. and other nations have led IBSE (Inquiry-Based Science Education) initiatives in partnership with organizations like the US-Mexico Science Foundation (FUMEC), the Smithsonian Institution and a number of multinational corporations with support from EC, NSF and World Bank, among others. It is now widely accepted that IBSE leads to increased student interest and learning of science.

89

Does this mean that we are beginning to close the workforce skills gap?

In one word, no. A recent survey by the OECD of adult skills in 20 countries offers a sobering perspective on literacy, numeracy, and problem solving skills with which 16-65 year-olds are able to contribute to workplace productivity: •

Between 5 and 28% of adults are at the lowest literacy skill levels and 8-32% are at the same numeracy skill level. Between 7 and 23% have no experience with, or lack the basic skills needed to use information/ communication technology for many everyday tasks. Only 3-9% of adults in technology-rich environments have the highest problem solving skills.

•

Skill levels in all areas are directly correlated with likelihood of employment and pay level.

•

Persons with low literacy skills more often report poor health and little impact on the political process.

•

Poor education and lack of opportunities to improve skills combine to create a vicious cycle in which low proficiency leads to even fewer opportunities and vice versa.

Not surprisingly, this skills deficit is reflected in a 2013 survey of Fortune 1000 recruiters. Many report difficulty in finding qualified candidates with a 2-year STEM college degree (55%) or a four-year degree (50%). Sixty-eight percent have vacant four-year STEM degree positions and 48% report two-year STEM degree vacancies.

The majority (75%) project that ten years from now, there will be more new STEMjobs than non-STEM jobs, leading to a worsening of the talent shortage.

Is STEM education important for workplace skill development and productivity?

Innovation is frequently hailed as a driver of business productivity and economic growth. In 1996 OECD stated in its Jobs Strategy: Technology, Productivity and Job creation: “To realize the full potential of technological change in improving economywide productivity, growth and job creation, governments need to make innovation and technology diffusion policies an integral part of overall economic policy”.

The Opportunity Equation, a 2009 call to action by the Carnegie Corporation and the Institute for Advanced Study emphasized the urgency to reform STEM education and strengthen U.S. innovation capacity: “Knowledge and skills from the so-called STEM fields are crucial to virtually every endeavor of individual and community life.” Later that year, President Obama launched the Educate to Innovate Campaign for Excellence in STEM Education: “Reaffirming and 90

strengthening America’s role as the world’s engine of scientific discovery and technological innovation is essential to meeting the challenges of this century.

That’s why I am committed to making the improvement of STEM education over the next decade a national priority.”

Innovation is now a ubiquitous element in the measurement of productivity, and no longer restricted to economically privileged nations, as shown by the annually published Global Innovation Index, Cornell University, INSEAD, and World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). In large part this is attributable to the Global Partnership for Education, funded by the World Bank.

Table 1: Biggest jumps in the GII rankings from 2012 to 2013 (142 Nations) Country Uganda Costa Rica Bolivia Cambodia Mexico Uruguay Indonesia Ecuador

GII 2012 rank 117 60 114 129 79 67 100 98

GII 2013 rank 89 39 95 110 63 52 85 83

Jump +28 +21 +19 +19 +16 +15 +15 +15

The 2013 OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard reports that nations and people have become more interdependent than ever before. Countries rely increasingly on imports from other nations to maintain or improve their export performance and consumers in one country sustain jobs in countries further up the value chain. International institutional R&D collaboration networks are expanding and researcher mobility is increasing, helping to fuel the innovation power and economic growth in emerging economies.

So, we agree on how to sustain global innovation. What about the early innovation talent pipeline?

This intense international collaboration and exchange in advanced talent preparation and innovation stand in stark contrast to the tentative cross-border exchange and collaboration in K-12 education—the early pipeline for innovation talent. Yet, there is a clear positive correlation between domestic spending on primary/secondary education and national wealth, a fact often cited in arguments for urgent improvement of K-12 education in the face of economic challenge.

Interest is growing in education practices of leading innovation nations, such as the German apprenticeship model and the Finnish teacher preparation system.

91

However, quick fixes through emulation of these best practices of nurturing talent will be difficult since they are deeply rooted in culture and tradition through many generations with high values of education and mastery of craftsmanship skills.

We must not let this discourage us. PISA, TIMSS, and other multinational studies offer priceless guidance. Even in the face of needs for normative change and cultural shift, which takes time, nations that now fail to offer K-12 students effective education, must learn from the global community through collaboration and exchange. This has been done before. The Pollen and Fibonacci Programs, supported by the EC brought best practices in IBSE to lagging European countries with strong results.

The global STEM talent marketplace is not defined by equal opportunity. How can we change this?

On the demand side, multinational enterprises (MNEs) drive international talent flow by recruiting skilled workers from where in the world they are best trained.

But importing talent, with consideration to dual careers, family relocation and assimilation is very expensive. Often, it is cost-effective to simply move a business to where skills are abundant, intensifying the competition for talent among local employers and leaving small business and public services at a disadvantage.

On the supply side, it is survival for the fittest. Students at leading STEM high schools have their future careers secured. However, most are at the mercy of public education, which varies greatly between, districts, states and nations. Few can afford to relocate to where education and employment opportunities are better.

But STEM education can be strengthened everywhere through IBSE and by increasing proximity to the workplace. An open window between the classroom and the workplace will help teachers and students understand employers’ needs for knowledge and skills and how these needs change with new technology and innovation. Employers gain opportunities to positively influence learning, much to their own advantage.

Someday soon, every young person will be able to graduate prepared for the global talent marketplace. This will be made possible by increasing collaboration at the international K-12 level, and between educators and employers everywhere.

About the author: Anders Hedberg, Ph.D., is an experienced pharmaceutical industry executive, who now applies his science and corporate social responsibility expertise to international STEM education.

93

IS UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME THE ANSWER TO AUTOMATION? By: Bailey Piazza

W

hether epidemic or enhancement, a clear trend has swept the globe: robots seem to be replacing the jobs formerly held by hardworking humans. According to one report, U.S. factories on average employ about two robots for every one hundred employees. Meanwhile, in Korea approximately five robots join the ranks of every one hundred workers. As these numbers continue to escalate worldwide, the market expands and the cost to implement machines plummets. While this speaks volumes to the increased global development and innovation in technology, the rapid computerization of jobs has resulted in about 57 percent of the world’s jobs to be at risk of extinction.

This means people with narrow/focused skillsets and little education will be forced out of employment with slim opportunities to find careers elsewhere in the same field. While increased automation points to the manufacturing industry as the most significant victim, the problem extends into the elimination of jobs in other sectors. Ninety-seven percent of farm laborers and fast food cooks will have their jobs at risk of extinction. Seventy-nine percent of truck driver jobs are at risk, as well as 80 percent of construction laborer jobs.

A society without work (and thus an earned income) will continue to drive down the median income, as it has for the past 16 years by approximately three percent.

This causes the socioeconomic gap to increase and inequality and polarization in the world’s societies to skyrocket.

Among the flurry of solutions gaining traction recently are proposals for some form of a universal basic income (UBI). Those proposals can take a variety of forms, including universal grants, a negative income tax (NIT), or a type of wage supplement. The case for replacing the current welfare system with a guaranteed national income is intriguing. It promises an anti-poverty effort that is simple and transparent, that treats recipients like adults by eliminating the current complex paternalistic system, and that has a better set of incentives when 94

it comes to work, marriage, and savings. In theory such an income could be set high enough that no citizen would live in poverty.

But what sounds good in theory tends to break down when one scrutinizes the implementation. There appears to be serious trade-offs among cost, simplicity, and incentive structure. According to the Economist, a country the size of the United States would need to raise collected taxes that go into GDP by nearly 10% to pay every child and adult about $10,000 per year. While noble in theory, the universal basic income could be exceptionally costly, costing just the U.S., for example, an approximate $4.4 trillion.

Costs aside, another downside of implementing such a policy is its potential impact on productivity, the labor force, and human purpose. Making it possible to live without working for a wage will discourage citizens from obtaining long-term security in the job market. Work is also one of the few defining aspects of most societies and to make it obsolete would have both productive and social repercussions. In many cultures across the globe, one’s career defines oneself. A profession breeds sharper skill and a sense of purpose in the universe. Without the need to learn and adapt to new skills, what will humanity do to fill the void? Some argue a technological renaissance will emerge, granting humans the opportunity to shed their financial stresses and enjoy the limitless capabilities of the automation age. However, a guaranteed income could mean the collapse of social mobility with no means of promotion, locking people in a social class with no means to escape— The American Nightmare.

While the UBI is a plausible solution for a future crisis, versions of a UBI are already being implemented. The Netherlands, Kenya, and Namibia have made the trial list. In 2016, The Netherlands launched a program that would give it’s citizens $980. Also in 2016, a $30 million program funded by GiveDirectly gave an unconditional monthly benefit to 6,000 people in Kenya. In 2008, Otjivero-Omitara, a Namibian village riddled with high crime and poverty rates, launched a pilot program that provided every resident of the village with a basic monthly stipend.

The money was collected from church groups, NGOs, and labor unions. Since implementation childhood malnourishment dropped 32 percent, the poverty rate dropped by 18 percent, and the crime rate plummeted by 36 percent. In addition, the average income earned outside of the stipend increased 29 percent.

While the trials show positive results, there is still much to be determined before a universal basic income can be applied to America and the rest of the international community. The future of an automated labor force and machinedriven economy poses many woes and wonders for the world. Now is the time to prepare for, discuss, experiment, and carefully co-create our future world.

95

CONNECTION BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES AND EMPLOYABILITY By: Kristin Greene

M

ost MBA programs teach that you find room for opportunity when there are gaps between markets or inefficiencies in markets. Usually they are referring to products, services, or the delivery of products and services. However, in the past 20 years, a new gap has risen that has been coined “the war for talent”.

This term suggests there is a finite amount of potential staff in the market as well as a finite amount of staff with the right skills. This vision of recruitment leads to high recruitment costs, continuous hiring cycles, and partnerships that are not necessarily made for sound business reasons. On the flipside, beyond automation and building efficiencies, there are ways that industries can broaden their understanding of skills and value-add and hence their access to talent.

A specific example is the Japan-IMF Scholarship Program for Advanced Studies.

With financial support from the Japanese government, IIE in partnership with the IMF administers the Japan-IMF Scholarship Program for Advanced Studies. The goal of the program is to train Japanese nationals as applied economists to work either at the IMF or in their home administrations through a study abroad program at a leading university outside of Japan. The students are able to connect with peers in their field and learn different and global perspectives. Through this scholarship program, the IMF gains access to an additional pool of talent, which the Japanese government gains employees with international economic perspectives.

In a 2015 survey of employers by the Association of American Colleges and Universities, more than half of employers place the greatest priority on demonstrated proficiency of the following skills in hiring decisions: • • • •

Oral and written communication skills.

Work effectively in teams.

Critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and good decision-making skills.

Solve complex problems and apply knowledge to real-world settings.

96

• •

Innovation and creativity.

Solve problems with people from different background and cultures.

It is counterintuitive then that in the same survey only 13% of employers indicated that they were more likely to hire a recent college graduate who had participated in a study abroad program.

In a study just released this month by IIE, “Gaining an Employment Edge: The Impact of Study Abroad on 21st Century Skills and Prospects”, the connection between study abroad and employment outcomes are revealed. The survey indicated that a study abroad experience has a very positive impact on 21st century job skills like intercultural skills, interpersonal skills, adaptability, problem-solving, confidence, language skills, curiosity, communication skills, and self-awareness.

These are the same types of competencies that employers look for when evaluating a candidate.

The survey also revealed that many employers don’t systematically ask about study abroad experiences during interviews, unless they also had a study abroad experience or have an interest in the country. Rather, it is up to the interviewee to broach the topic.

There is a clear disconnect between the skills students gain on a study abroad experience and how employers view those experiences. This presents an opportunity to look at talent management in a new way and potentially address some of the talent gap.

Universities should take measures to help students better understand and verbalize how their experience dovetails with their career aspirations. At the same time, industries just beginning to invest to address the international growth of the sector have the opportunity to broaden their recruiting pool.

The Financial Services sector, for example, is going through a growth spurt with the advent of Fintech and a booming middle class in Asia. PricewaterhouseCoopers reports that by 2020 “we expect many U.S. financial Institutions will have a fully functional Asia hub….” Even accountants are being asked to think more globally as they work on cross border operations as CFOs are pushed into a more strategic role.

Harvard Business Review indicates that members of the C-Suite are now required to have international experience. The value of international skills should appreciate as the Financial Sector gains traction in the global markets. Those who add international competencies in their recruitment profile may just win the war for talent.

About the author: Kristin Greene is Head of Consulting at the Institute of International Education (IIE).

97

TALENT MOBILITY FOR THE 21ST CENTURY By: Kris Gopalakrishan

B

usinesses and governments across the world are just beginning to come to terms with the new reality of the post-crisis era. On the one hand, we are grappling with the challenges of operating in an environment of macro-economic uncertainty. On the other hand, we are striving to leverage emerging trends in business, technology and society to build our enterprises and economies of tomorrow. Unlike earlier crises, our success will be determined not only by the availability of financial capital but increasingly—human capital.

The services sector, which is an important engine of job creation, continues to play a key role in most economies. This will require a large workforce that is highly skilled in newer skills like IT, Healthcare, Customer Service etc.

Given this increasing demand, there is a global war for talent and at the heart of it are three key issues: 1. Changing demographic profiles. Emerging economies like India and China are increasingly becoming the new hubs for talent due to their large demographic dividend. Advanced economies like Japan, the U.S. and also several European countries on the other hand are facing challenges of an aging workforce. By 2050, it is estimated that the percentage of population above the age of 65 will be close to 67% in Japan, 53% in Germany and 39% in the US. India on the contrast will have only 19% above the age of 65. These disparities are causing a talent imbalance with surplus in a few countries and shortages in others.

2. Technology development and a consequent productivity increase. Advances in technology, especially Information Technology, will disrupt societies faster in the coming years. Cloud, mobile technology, social network and collaboration technologies and big data will provide almost infinite computing, infinite storage and infinite bandwidth at very low cost in the hands of individuals. This will increase the amount of innovation in every sector and aspect of our lives.

99

These developments are redefining jobs of the future and with it, the talent needed for the future.

3. Skill gaps and Demand-Supply mismatches. It is ironic that at a time when close to 200 million people across the world (40 million of which are in the advanced economies alone) are unemployed, global businesses are still struggling with jobs that remain vacant. Moreover, 75 million of these unemployed are youth. The inability to fill jobs despite huge unemployment is not only due to geographic imbalances in demand and supply but also due to large skill gaps between the needs of the industry and the output of the education systems.

It is evident that the talent challenge of the 21st century is global and that each country has its regional peculiarities. It is also clear that the scope of the problem is so diverse and complex that no single stakeholder can address it.

Therefore, there is an impending need for collaborative, multi-stakeholder and systemic interventions by governments, industry and academia across advanced and developing nations to overcome the talent challenge.

Long-term and sustainable solutions will require structural and systemic interventions. Governments have to make strategic investments in improving the basic educational infrastructure needed to produce high-skill talent on a large-scale and in a sustainable manner. Businesses have to work with the academia to ensure that the talent output is relevant to the needs of the industry and therefore more employable. However, while these are much needed, they require a substantial lead-time to produce the desired results.

This is where talent mobility plays a critical role in addressing the current talent challenges in the short to medium term.

To begin with, demographic profiles cannot be changed in the short term to cater to the needs of the industry. Secondly, addressing the academia-industry skill-gap challenge also requires long-term collaboration between the industry, academia and the governments. Therefore, mobility of talent between countries (of surplus and shortage of talent) as well as mobility of talent within countries provides a feasible alternative. Contrary to popular belief, research indicates that talent mobility benefits nations of surplus such as India as much as it benefits nations that receive this talent like Europe, the U.S. and other advanced economies.

Finally, the challenges of skill redundancy due to technology developments and productivity improvements impact advanced economies as much as, if not more than developing economies. Countries like India and China have been consistently producing large-scale, high-skilled talent in recent years. Advanced 100

economies can and should tap into this pool in the short-term until they are able to scale their own educational infrastructure to cater to the changing needs of their industries in the long-term. Moreover, talent mobility also provides competitive advantages to both the countries of surplus and countries of shortage. Highly skilled immigrants contribute to the competitiveness and productivity of countries that they migrate to. When they return to their home countries, they leverage the business and technological skills that they have gained abroad.

However, effective talent mobility requires concerted efforts between governments and businesses across countries sending and receiving talent.

Multilateral agreements are needed that foster labor market reforms and allow easy recognition of skills across countries. Pre-requisite to it all is the need for businesses and governments to assess current skill shortages and also to anticipate potential needs of the future. Businesses have to find means to attract, train and retain the right talent themselves and foster talent mobility within. Finally, student mobility should be promoted as a stepping-stone to talent mobility.

Talent Mobility is not the solution to some of the most pressing challenges in the need for large-scale, high-skill talent. It also brings with it a fair share of challenges, particularly in seamless implementation. However, talent mobility is an ideal and much-needed alternative in the interim until the long-term structural reforms in education and labor markets reap its dividends. This is critical not only to stimulate economic growth but also to foster long-term, sustainable growth and human capital strategies.

About the author: S. Gopalakrishnan (Kris) is Executive Co-Chairman and one of the co-founders of Infosys. Kris has been voted top CEO (IT Services category) in Institutional Investor’s inaugural ranking of Asia’s Top Executives; selected as a winner of the 2nd Asian Corporate Director Recognition Awards

by Corporate Governance Asia and was selected to Thinkers 50, an elite list of global business thinkers. In January 2011, the Government of India awarded Kris the Padma Bhushan, India’s third highest civilian honor.

101

THE FUTURE OF MICROFRANCHISING By: Andrew Mack

A

merica’s biggest problem is that we don’t have enough good jobs. Yes, unemployment has gone “down” to 5.9%, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. But that percentage is almost meaningless, as it doesn’t count people who’ve quit looking for work. A staggering 20 million people or more are still jobless or grossly underemployed, and many are deeply frustrated or depressed—they’re not celebrating “declining” unemployment.

Youth unemployment around the world is a full-blown crisis. Young adults 18-25 make up some 40% of world’s unemployed, with jobless rates over 50% in countries as diverse as South Africa and Spain. By all accounts, the lack of work is a major driver of gang violence and extremism, and a major cause of migration for young adults in developing nations from Central America to West Africa and the Middle East. Still, our current challenges are nothing like the crisis to come: a virtual tsunami of new job applicants–literally hundreds of millions of new job seekers that will need to find work in the next 15 years–and we are unprepared.

We need a new way of looking at employment based not on preparing young adults to join our current way of work – which values experience and age – but a new dynamic structure based on youth that values the capacities and energy they bring, an accessible system that is for the large number of new entrants that are coming soon. That system is microfranchising.

Why not stick with past approaches to job creation?

We know the next generation of jobs can’t–and shouldn’t–come from government.

Large-scale government employment comes in two forms: bullets (the military) or bureaucracy, and both are problematic. Experience shows that a reliance on either can stunt economic growth.

103

At the same time, while major multinationals and large regional companies are expanding in the global south, their actual employment footprint is (and is likely to remain) limited. Around the world executives get rewarded for cutting – not increasing–headcount, and MNCs are investing massively in technology, from factory automation to drones, to data systems. They are moving away from hiring large numbers of people, especially young, relatively less skilled, workers.

Consider the oil and gas sector, one of the most dominant forces in the world economy for generations today employs by most estimates less than 40 million people. Now compare this to new job seekers in just 3 countries–Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo–whose population aged 10-24 is estimated at over 108 million.

If employment through government and large companies isn’t a solution, what about small business? Focusing on entrepreneurship makes sense, after all it fits the culture–some might even say the cult–of entrepreneurship in the global north. It values initiative, and it has a rich panoply of high visibility heroes, from Bill Gates, to Richard Branson, to the founder of Apple, whose name was, well… JOBS. Still, we’ve seen hundreds of millions spent promoting entrepreneurship from donors and foundations–prizes, contests, grants, training and lots of press… but with limited results. Why? Because the programs simply don’t scale fast enough. Because in most markets, even with training, the obstacles to entrepreneurship are simply too great. And because of one simple fact–though most youth are entrepreneurial, very few are real entrepreneurs.

Why Microfranchising? And why now?

We know that franchises work in nations with high youth unemployment like South Africa, Tunisia and Egypt, and that franchises generally succeed at a much higher rate than other businesses around the world. Franchises don’t rely on age or experience– and are perfect for people with drive and the ability to follow a plan. And they can scale quickly. Franchising works because it is built on a powerful mix, designed to help the franchisee and the whole ecosystem create value and reward effort: System + Training + Branding + Help with Finance + Teaming and Mentorship Still most franchises are significantly too expensive for young adults, and in any case, having more KFC outlets will hardly create sustainable growth around the world.

In its basic form, a microfranchise is like a franchise, just smaller. And there are a number of small microfranchises out in the marketplace already–selling eyeglasses and medicines in Uganda, beauty products in India. Most have some connection 104

to a charity or NGO, or some sort of donor. Many focus on reaching clients in rural or other underserved areas, but none has reached the kind of scale we need –or know is possible.

We know from the headlines that microfranchising can work. ISIS, Boko Haram, MS-13 and other Central American drug gangs – these are all thriving microfranchises aimed at youth, providing training, tools and branding and help with finance. It is time to compete, building microfranchises that work for the good guys.

Creating a Microfranchise revolution What would a next generation Microfranchise look like? The goal would be to create a series of microbusiness systems accessible to nearly anyone–based on a powerful partnership with the most interested parties–the young adults themselves.

The buy-in for each microfranchise might be as low as $2,000, and come with technology, tools and training to launch and manage the business.

Microfranchises could focus on underserved regions, rural areas and slums where larger companies typically don’t and can’t go, using simple technology– especially the cellphone–as the key component for management, service delivery, and data collection.

We could further reduce barriers to entry through cofinancing, by re-targeting CSR, foundation, donor funding to help cover part of start up cost and by encouraging banks to provide special financing windows for microfranchisees– because trained microfranchisees would be legitimately better risks.

Importantly, microfranchising can do more than just provide a better burger. It can solve real societal problems and unlock new markets.

•

In Agriculture, by providing ag extension services of all sorts, helping test soil, choose crops or improve the use of water or fertilizer

•

In Education, offering tutoring, test prep, financial advising and tax services

•

In Healthcare, from eyeglasses to heart monitoring, blood tests–especially with chronic conditions like heart disease and diabetes that are exploding in countries around the developing world

The key lies in capturing money wasted today–days of work missed through poor healthcare, lower crop yields, time, money and danger involved in traveling to wait 105

for often inadequate government services… Bringing service to the underserved can be good business and create the conditions for future employment and growth.

What’s different today?

Five years ago microfranchising was a great idea. Today it can be so much more.

Improved technology, connectivity, infrastructure and new sources of finance can help make microfranchises successful and scalable like never before. Marketers and policymakers need the kind of data that microfranchisees could generate about citizen consumers they want to reach at the end of the road.

Today we face a global crisis around employment. To solve it we must redefine the model, literally reshaping the way we look at employment. No combination of immigration and simple growth will provide enough places at the economic table for tomorrow’s millions of new job seekers. The choices are stark: will tomorrow’s young adults be future markets or future migrants? In 5 years will they be working in tourism or terrorism? It’s time for a microfranchising revolution!

About the author: Andrew Mack is Principal of AMGlobal Consulting, a specialized Washington, DC-based consulting firm that helps companies and NGOs do more business in Emerging Markets. A former World Bank project manager and banker with experience in more than 80 countries, Mack is internationally-recognized for his work on economic development issues and technology policy in Africa, Latin America and other underserved regions.

107

VALUE OF TECHNOLOGY FOR GIRLS IN EMERGING MARKETS By: Fumbi Chima

T

he most recent Global Gender Gap report by the World Economic Forum highlighted which countries continued to make strides towards ending gender inequality. Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, Nicaragua, the Philippines and Rwanda were all top performers. The report also revealed that 35 countries have closed the health and survival gap entirely and 25 countries have closed the educational attainment gap.

Despite the positive news, too many countries still lag behind, particularly emerging or developing countries.

Women in developing countries spend a great deal of time taking care of their families and on commercial activities in communities. These communities can serve as incubators for positive change and governments and civil societies should support programs, centers for community development and social activities that empower women and help to bridge the gender gap.

At the heart of the solution is technology. Technology plays an increasingly important role as part of the equation in alleviating gender inequality. Simply put, technology and access to technology can liberate women from isolation. There are many organizations recently that are championing this and have demonstrated the power. For example, expanding women’s use of mobile telephones enables their access to information for healthcare, legal rights, security and banking, offering women de facto independence.

However, barriers such as gender discrimination, lack of confidence, language difficulties, low literacy and lack of time and money continue to prevent girls and young women from taking full advantage of technology.

109

Overcoming the Barriers The solutions start at school. Educational establishments need to encourage critical thinking and innovation; they need to accommodate ways for girls to participate in extra-curricular activities in order to stimulate new ways of thinking which can help these girls gain skills for jobs in the IT sector.

The solutions also come from the government and private industries if they work together. We need greater advocacy and support policies to make internet more accessible and affordable to girls in the developing countries. Offering opportunities such as tools for engaging students in the classroom, making teaching more participatory would encourage student-led research and builds media and digital literacy skills in the process. Most importantly to ensure that girls have equal access to the equipment. In instances where these girls do not have access to the classroom and or school, it can be brought to them through vocational training or extra-curricular activities. A growing number of countries are including gender as a key component of their National Broadband Plans, for example Nigeria has recently implemented plans that promotes access and incentives for training women to use internet.

Education and awareness with the family is critical. Men and boys need to be engaged as allies in the process. Their behaviors have to change. When fathers, brothers and male peers are aware, engaged and supportive of the girls’ development and rights, they will be instrumental in changing broader perceptions.

Girls Need to Have Access to Female Role Models A recent example comes to mind. A woman in the Philippines went from being a domestic helper to running her own graphic design company. As a result her children now have choices and opportunities she never had. We often hear stories of rare women at the top of their profession, such as Nombulelo Moholi; Thoko MokgosiMwantembe or Doreen Ramphaleng-Motlaleng and we celebrate their unique stories. But we need to start celebrating women because of their capabilities, not because they are an exception to the rule.

We hear it time and again: to empower a woman is to empower a nation. You invest in a woman and she will invest in her family and her community. It goes without saying that women who have access to an education are more likely to contribute to economic growth as well as make better decisions on health and wealth management. Awareness, advocacy and the education of women is essential if we have any hope of empowering girls in patriarchal societies that traditionally do not treat women as equals.

110

According to a 2010 report by the GSMA and the Cherie Blair Foundation, mobile phone ownership can transform the lives of women in the developing world: Of the more than 2,000 women surveyed from four low- to middle-income countries (Bolivia, Egypt, India, and Kenya,) 41 percent of women reported increased income or professional opportunities, 85 percent reported higher independence, and 93 percent reported feeling safer because of mobile phone ownership.

Similarly, Intel’s Women and the Web study—which surveyed 2,200 women from India, Egypt, Mexico, and Uganda—reports that 77 percent of the women surveyed used the internet to further their education. Among other examples, 54 percent of women surveyed in India used the internet for financial services and banking, and 68 percent of women surveyed in Egypt reported that they felt access to the internet gave them greater freedom.

These studies have demonstrated the importance for women to be able to understand and use technologies, can have a positive impact on women’s freedom of expression, education and employment opportunities. The business opportunity for getting women and girls online and connected is huge. For example the Women and Web report showed that with150 millions girls and women being online it would create approximately betweenUS$50 Billion and US$70 Billion market opportunity and could contribute to an estimated US$13 Billion to US$18 Billion annually to developing countries’ GDP. The potential for technology to improve lives of women and girls is too large an opportunity to miss. The failure to make use of women’s talent will continue to undermine emerging markets economic development.

About the Author: Fumbi Chima is a top executive whose career spans the technology, innovation, and global affairs sphere. She serves on the board of Global Affairs Council in Washington, DC and the Diplomatic Courier. Ms. Chima has been honored with many awards, including the 2015 Trailblazer Award by the Face-toFace Africa and as one of the Top 100 Women in STEM.

111

EDUCATION DIPLOMACY: A WAY FORWARD FOR WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT By: Diane Whitehead

W

orkforce development has traditionally been viewed as a way to strengthen human resource capacity in order to boost the economic development of nations. However, as concerns for promoting economic equity has grown, workforce development has been considered increasingly important in the area of human rights. Today, expanding the opportunities for workforce participation is recognized as a way to address a wider range of human needs, particularly poverty reduction. Therefore, workforce development has taken on a role of increasing importance in the 21st century.

Education is widely regarded as the primary vehicle for developing a skilled and competent workforce. Higher levels of education can increase a nation’s productivity in considerable ways, while also improving citizen participation rates and engagement with human rights. Through education, individuals gain a greater sense of inclusion, feel more respected for the skills and knowledge they possess, and can translate their skills into work opportunities. Individuals who feel included in the workforce of a nation often have a greater sense of commitment to ensuring the success of that nation; therefore, education may boost civic participation. Networks of regionally and locally based universities, human service organizations, and community-based agencies are often involved in the education and training of workers which can have an added benefit of strengthening regional and community knowledge sharing infrastructure.

Workforce development is a vital component of the success of nations that goes beyond economic development, and education is the best conduit available for increasing worker skills and knowledge.

In the dialogue surrounding the newly adopted United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), education is being elevated to a position of primary importance as it is viewed as fundamental to achieving the SDG goals and supporting critical global efforts, including workforce development of nations.

113

However, in order to advance education in the 21st century, we need new methods of advocating for, and promoting, the value of education. The Center for Education Diplomacy, begun by ACEI in 2012, outlines a new approach for promoting and securing access to quality education. This new approach is called Education Diplomacy and it is designed specifically for addressing 21st century education needs and for addressing broader development goals as well that rely on education, such as achievement of the SDG goals. It should be noted that education diplomacy has a dual role to play as both a tool to advance education more broadly, for purposes such as workforce development, and as a workforce advancement opportunity itself for those who wish to expand and enhance their skills in the constantly changing field of education.

Since Education Diplomacy is a new concept, there is no one fixed definition.

One suggested definition is as follows: Education Diplomacy cultivates trust to achieve mutual benefits in the pursuit of context-specific education goals using negotiation and other diplomatic skills to communicate across regional or national boundaries or with local communities responsible for education delivery. The practice of Education Diplomacy can encompass interactions with multiple actors at multiple levels that aim to shape a positive policy environment for education and manage issues of education on a local, bilateral, regional, or global level.

Education Diplomacy goes beyond typical approaches to education advocacy and leadership. It employs a broader set of diplomatic skills to reach agreement and find solutions to education challenges. Education Diplomacy always takes place between at least two actors and it has both conceptual and practical value. In practice, Education Diplomacy can be used to negotiate agreements between parties, which can help parties to reach consensus and develop collaborative relationships that expand opportunities in the education sector.

This form of “new diplomacy� borrows skills from traditional diplomacy, but applies those skills beyond a narrow conception of foreign policy and international relations to a broader set of issues and actors.

Education Diplomacy can be employed at the international level to formulate global initiatives and movements, or at the national and local levels to translate international policies into appropriate local practice. Alternatively, Education Diplomacy can be used at local levels to educate those operating at international and national levels about local education needs and challenges. This interplay illustrates the broad scope of Education Diplomacy in practice.

In order to advance education in innovative ways, educators today need to be well versed in strategies that go beyond typical education advocacy and 114

leadership methods. Education Diplomacy is a new strategy that will help educators everywhere to design and implement education in exciting, yet appropriate and effective, ways. Understanding and cultivating a disposition of diplomatic engagement moves educators to a new place where they can be even more successful in establishing partnerships, mediating differences, negotiating agreements, developing meaningful and contextualized education goals, designing suitable measures of education achievement, increasing access to education, and ensuring that education remains relevant to critical issues including ever-changing workforce development needs.

Education Diplomacy has the potential to serve as the leading approach to dynamic education change in this century. Among other critical issues, Education Diplomacy can be used to effectively promote issues relating to workforce development, such as improving skills and opportunities. It can also be used for the purposes of enhancing education as a human right or as the vehicle for expanding the knowledge that will be needed to resolve other crucial international development challenges. Education Diplomacy is a new strategy for new times.

About the author: Diane Whitehead is the Executive Director of the Association for Childhood Education International and leads the development of the Center for Education Diplomacy. Washington DC. To learn more about Education Diplomacy visit the Center for Education Diplomacy at educationdiplomacy.org.

115

WHEN A PASSPORT TEACHES MORE THAN A DIPLOMA By: Whitney Grespin

I

f a picture is worth a thousand words, then it must be nearly impossible to articulate the value of an experience. In a world that is increasingly interconnected though globalization that now touches every aspect of our lives, the importance of having an informed global frame of reference is important to individuals who identify themselves as global citizens. The standards and values that pervade American culture do not easily translate and, in some cases, are unintelligible to citizens of other countries. In an interconnected and globalized world, understanding of these different worldviews is critical to diplomacy and commerce at the individual, community, and national levels.

Spending time overseas during the early years of adulthood is fast gaining popularity as a rite of passage. From study abroad programs at universities to independent providers, passports are becoming as necessary a credential as diplomas. As Americans, most of these young adults are used to looking at the outside world from a singular point of view—an American one. Paul Burnore, Managing Director of the disaster relief organization All Hands, articulated this point succinctly, “Every American citizen, regardless of demographic circumstance, runs the risk of presuming their own economic situation, values, and viewpoints are the only ones worth thinking about or contributing to if they are never exposed to other cultures, ways of living, and belief systems.” A structured international experience—or anything more intentionally engaging than a touristy pass-through of a community—allows individuals to learn about communities in ways that may otherwise prove to be inaccessible.

The takeaways of structured or facilitated international experiences—be they ecotourism, service-learning, or small scale business incubation programs—inherently inform a global citizenry. Experiential learning engages minds and shapes outcomes to a degree that no other form of learning does, and facilitated programs have measurable outcomes that are often unattainable through independent travel alone.

117

While independent travel is also educational—indeed, any experience abroad is going to be transformational in some way—there is indisputably value added by programs that integrate intentional reflection and learning. Longtime international educator Dr. Eric Hartman, Visiting Assistant Professor of Global Studies at Providence College and lead author for the forthcoming Building a Better World: The Pedagogy and Practice of Global Service-Learning, summed up the value of facilitated programs with his observation, “Educational, reflective international experiences have profound power to unsettle assumptions and have participants look anew at the world around them. It is not the case, however, that crossing borders alone leads to greater acceptance of others, embrace of global social responsibility, or interest in peace.” The most effective processes encourage provocative reflection to derive the greatest takeaways.

Often it is a rude awakening for young Americans going abroad that the autonomous nature of American lifestyles is not the base unit of societal function elsewhere in the world. The community often emerges as the basic unit of society— be that a community of family (either immediate or extended), or a community of neighbors who share everything but DNA. This is important when students grow to be businesspeople and politicians, as it serves as a reminder that what we think is normal as Americans is not necessarily the standard elsewhere.

Ironically, as these experiences readjust perceptions beyond the individual level, that is where most of the learning occurs for the traveler. They realize that they are a being that is independent of where they have grown up and what they are used to, and in that way can realize the value of the privilege of selfdetermination that they may have never been conscious of before. They know that they can go back home and step outside a comfort zone they thought (knowingly or unknowingly) they were confined to, and they know that they will be fine. Participants in international service and education programs learn adaptability, responsiveness, and maturity that is nearly impossible to learn in a traditional educational experience.

Sara Noel, Outreach Director of the service-learning organization Amizade, observed, “When students return from an experience like this they are intimately connected with the countries and communities they visit. A protest, a war, an election, or a famine are no longer, ‘Terrible things that happen over there;’ they become real events that happened to your friends and [host] family… even if no one they knew was directly impacted by the event, it is the community that they are connected to. This can affect how they vote, the causes they support, and the direction their careers may take.” In America it often seems that narrowmindedness is easy to understand and hard to fix until there is personal exposure to foreign cultures and communities.

118

Dr. Hartman, of Providence College, commented of the vast majority of his students who participated in programs in developing countries, “They wish others could know that many of those people work as hard and dream as beautifully as we do, and that—due to circumstances beyond their control—they nonetheless have far fewer options than we do.” The Kenya-focused service organization Carolina for Kibera has embraced this realization in their slogan, “Talent is universal, opportunity is not.”

Young ThinkImpact scholar Becca Liebman’s reflection of her time settling into working in Kenya is insightful: “This week has been shocking and a huge adjustment for everyone; people are people. We are not that different. We use the resources we have to make the best we can. And that’s pretty universal. So there you have it—a diploma would ask me to list differences I have noticed. A passport has taught me that there is no point.” It is the differences between cultures that students prepare for and expect, but more often it’s the nuanced human-level similarities that are the most educational. Those are the most valuable lessons, and they are the ones that cannot be learned in a classroom.

119

WANT TO KEEP YOUR MILLENNIALS? MENTOR THEM By: Julie Kantor & Bridget McKeogh

T

here seems to be a profound disconnect in the workforce between Millennials (1984-2012), Generation Xers (1965-1983), Baby Boomers (1946-1964) and Greatest Generation/Traditionalists (1930-1946). The complaints are rampant.

But there is also something pretty clear across the board that we can all own.

Every Gallup study shows that the overall workforce is disengaged to some extent.

Yes, that means you or someone who works in close proximity to you is likely counting the minutes to five pm. Last week Gallup reported that the U.S employee engagement average for November was 32.1%. That’s one out of every three people! And the number ticks up higher the older you are. In 2014 Gallup reported Traditionalists have 42.2% engagement, 32.7% for Baby boomers, 32.2% for Generation X, and just 28.9% of Millennials report that they are engaged at work.

By 2020, Millennials will become the largest generation in the workforce.

Millennials tend to frustrate corporate America with a sense of ‘entitlement.’ It is widely viewed that they are ‘coddled’ by their Baby Boomer parents, told they could be anything, not willing to pay their dues. One friend, an entrepreneur Julie Beck, shared how she had been so ‘Millennialed’ this year, she even coined the phrase. Two Millennials transitioned in unprofessional manners, one by a text message! Don’t they care about having a positive reference? Millennials tend to stay in jobs for under two years and don’t seem as motivated by the career track, raises and other incentives that are the mainstay of corporate America.

Over the past few years, I have seen and worked with a great number of Millennials and observed the lack of mentoring the ‘older’ generations are offering them. Why are we not investing? Are we threatened by their confidence, desire to lead? Given our own low engagement scores in the workplace, have we

121

become too cranky? But let’s go deeper into the issues, the problems, and mentoring as part of the solution to train and retain our newer and highpotential talent. According to a key study by Intelligence Group (a division of the Creative Artist Agency), we get some keen insight: 72% of Millennials would like to be their own boss, but if they have to work for a boss, 79% would want that boss to serve more as a coach or a mentor. The study also shows that 88% of Millennials prefer a collaborative culture over a competitive culture and they are looking to make a difference in their professional lives. I think of Millennials often as the ‘purpose generation’.

As the workforce shifts, our society is challenged in finding enough STEM talent. STEM talent refers to skills needed for almost every job (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math). For example, there are millions of unfilled jobs that require STEM skills and STEM jobs tend to pay better (at 40% so it’s a much clearer pathway to the middle class and arguably, the American Dream).

Goldman Sachs is among the first put some big cards on the table publicly. On the front page of the Wall Street Journal earlier this month, they asked their Millennials to stay and promised that things will improve by offering clearer paths to promotions, experiences in different banking environments and mandating “No Work Saturdays”.

Another solution: creating Mentoring Cultures. This is what we focus on around the clock at Twomentor, LLC. Aligning mentoring to the whole fabric of the company, and part of people’s performance reviews. PGi released a study that dove into the millennial mindset. Of those millennials surveryed, 71% stated that they wanted meaningful connections at work and hope to find a “second family” in their coworkers. Additionally, 75% not only want mentors, but deem it crucial for success. In the same survey, 70% of non-millennials say they are open to reverse mentoring. They acknowledge that 20-somethings have first-hand knowledge of social media and other technical practices and older employees want to learn! A majority of Millennials sited “not a good cultural fit” as a reason they left their job in the first three years. To retain the new majority in the workforce, companies need to align culture more to Millennial needs, and perhaps all of our needs to have more meaningful support and connection at work.

An Economic Burden Each time you lose someone good, you lose time and money. Forbes reported that the average cost to replace a millennial is 15k-25k. Goldman Sachs isn’t trying to retain Millennials solely out of the goodness of their hearts, retention is an significant economic issue. It’s good for business. Companies pour significant money into recruitment but programing around development and retention is 122

given less attention and some of the behavior patterns of Millennials reflects that.

So, bottom line, it’s time to get the human back in human capital.

Companies are made up of human beings not human doings, and an engaged workforce = ROI for the company and the people who make up the company.

The business case for mentoring is so strong that in a Wharton study, people who mentor got promoted 6x more than people who didn’t and mentees were promoted 5x more. And retention was 20% higher in both groups five years later. Most companies have informal mentoring programs or aspirations, if you want to capture ROI, look at metrics that can be captured- after all, you get what you measure.

The way we see it, there is no downside to mentoring. Mentors and mentees are more engaged and better positioned for advancement. Engagement equals retention and retention saves time and money. Put in a little time and effort now, to save big headaches later. What is there to lose?

About the authors: Julie Kantor is a global speaker on women in STEM, Championing our Millennial Workforce, and building MentoringCultures. She is President & CEO of Twomentor, LLC offering mentor training and strategy to multinational corporations. She is based in Washington, DC. Bridget McKeogh is a Senior Associate at Twomentor, LLC and experienced STEM Teacher with a Master’s Degree in Statistics from Georgetown University.

123

HOW BOOMERS CAN MENTOR MILLENIALS By: Margery Kraus

A

s I have often said, I have been fortunate throughout my career. When I started APCO over 30 years ago, I had little more than a vision and the courage to pursue it. Nothing quite like APCO had ever really existed before, and starting a business from scratch is especially challenging. Like any person starting down a new path, I needed guidance to help me address things I had never encountered. Fortunately, I have never been afraid to ask for help, and many senior professionals from the Greatest Generation were willing to help me and serve as mentors when I reached out. I learned a lot from being exposed to their thinking and their experience over the years.

This is one of the many reasons why I have always valued mentoring as a core priority at APCO. Professional development is an important element for any company, especially for firms dependent on human capital. To build a firm like APCO, you have to continually go out and seek the best and brightest. Cultivating and retaining young professionals and growing them into senior business leaders is the secret to success in any professional services organization. Now, more than three decades after I founded the company, I can see how well this investment has paid off. Most of APCO’s senior leaders have been with the firm for many years, and I can see an even greater generation rising within the company. They carry with them not only the skills they developed over the years, but also the culture, which is the glue to our future.

This is one of the reasons why it is so important for Baby Boomer business leaders to mentor Millennials, who will soon account for nearly half of all employees worldwide. With this generation comes not only a set of new skills for a new age, but also a set of values important to the future of the world. Millennials and Baby Boomers are not the vastly different groups that we often see portrayed in public.

Though differences are certainly there, both are determined generations that are constantly seeking to learn. Both generations also grew up in a time of great change and transition. They had values different from the generation before, and brought a

124

new energy and passion to the workplace as well as new demands to society. We have a lot to learn from each other. Being trained as a teacher, I have a special appreciation for this.

Baby Boomers have adapted, sometimes more slowly than desired, to the changing technologies and cultures of the world in order to continue succeeding in their careers, rather than being phased out; and they have no intention of quietly retiring any time soon. They are dependent upon the knowledge that Millennials bring to work, especially that special “chip” in their DNA that makes them digital natives. Likewise, Millennials are constantly seeking out new information to maintain their adaptive advantage, while proving the value of their unique insights, and they show no indication of meekly staying out of the limelight. What they lack is experience. Successful leaders will capitalize on these commonalities and mutual needs to mentor this younger generation while inspiring older workers.

Mentoring is not a formal process, and it does not happen in regularly scheduled times. Like most relationships in life, it has to be authentic and organically grown. It has to grow out of mutual respect. While the beginning might feel awkward, soon a natural rhythm and comfort can be found. To me, mentoring is a constant process involving everything from showing an employee the edits you made to their document, to convening regular lunch and learn sessions with junior staff, to taking more junior people along to meetings and inviting them to brainstorm at senior level meetings.

There also has to be receptivity for the older generations to listen and learn from their younger colleagues. As CEO, I formed a “CEO Council” to ensure that younger employees always have access and an opportunity to interact with APCO’s CEO, and I have the benefit of their thinking and good ideas. Some of the best new ideas in the firm have come from these sessions. At APCO, programs like this help to reinforce our more collegial culture that makes make working across borders, offices and generations more seamless.

With age, we become more comfortable with who we are and what we have accomplished. Boomers have learned a lot through our successes and failures, and we have much to impart to Millennials. We were an optimistic generation that had some hard life lessons. Similarly, Millennials are coming of age in challenging conditions, and they are constantly innovating to make their mark on the world.

There is much they can teach us. By being more collegial and candid with Millennials, we can encourage them to make the best choices for themselves, and in turn we can learn a great deal by better understanding their values and aspirations. Indeed, doing this might produce the greatest generation of leaders the world has ever seen.

About the Author: Margery Kraus is the Founder and Chairman of Apco Worldwide.

125

LEARNING SHOULD BE MORE LIKE ANGRY BIRDS By: Ana C. Rold

W

hile the idea of gamification of learning has been around for quite some time, new and emerging technologies—such as VR headsets and mobile applications—are allowing the concept of gamification to impact education and workforce training in new ways. In fact, gamification— which is the approach to instruction that facilitates learning and encourages motivation using game elements such as mechanics, game-based thinking, and reward systems—has recently moved beyond the limits of video games and into a broader sphere. From K-12 education to employee development to the government and its communities, gamification has taken hold of all forms of learning, enabling students to engage in a more creative and productive manner.

Due to gamification’s fairly new popularization within mainstream education, there still remain many myths that surround it. First, many people often confuse gamification with technology-based learning—and while gamification is usually augmented by technology, game mechanics such as receiving badges for accomplishing a work-related task could also be considered gamification.

Second, many believe that gamification is only effective on younger people, but several studies show that all age groups are interested in games, such as an Entertainment Software Association’s report which reveals that 48% of adults aged 50 and older play video games and more traditional card and board games on a weekly or even daily basis. Finally, there is a common misconception that there is a lack of science behind gamification, but a Georgia Southern University study discovered that using brief, spaced quizzes as a form of gamification increased retention of quiz material by as much as 40 percent, an outcome which ultimately shows that gamification can make use of a plethora of established learning practices—such as retrieval practice and spaced retrieval—to enhance retention of knowledge and learning rates.

127

Gamification has proven to not only be effective, but also enjoyable. Pep Boys, for example, recorded a 95 percent employee voluntary participation rate for its gamification efforts for all employees. Similarly, popular food chain KFC has recently announced a virtual reality training program designed to educate newly hired employees on how to inspect, rinse, bread, rack, and pressure fry virtual chickens through the use of a virtual reality headset in a mere 10 minutes, as compared to the 25 minutes it traditionally took to train employees. Through virtual reality, companies can step away from traditional training videos and instead focus on training new employees in both company practice and handson experience while also gamifying elements such as employee onboarding and staff re-training, cooperation and collaboration, and informing on company policy—thereby allowing employees to retain new knowledge in fun and sustainable ways.

A recent Futuresource Consulting report estimates that the number of students who will have access to virtual reality and augmented reality will increase from 2.1 million in 2016 to 83 million in 2021. With the rapid expansion of this new technology will come a plethora of potential uses of gamification, including the creation of virtual labs, mobile applications tailored toward individual learning, and expansive virtual libraries. The Library of Miss Gadish, for example, is a mobile app that has gamified reading through the use of animations and a reward system to incentivize readers to read books to completion. While there are many other potential applications for gamification, the use of creativity and engaged learning will engage younger students on a deeper level and increase retention rates of information.

Perhaps one of the most interesting institutions involved in gamification, Quest to Learn—a grade 6-12 charter school located in New York—is an educational establishment whose entire curriculum is founded upon game-based learning.

In a 9th grade biology class, for example, students may spend the entire school year role playing as workers in a fictional bio-tech company whose job revolves around the creation and maintenance of dinosaur clones, while in an English class, students may work together as “storyweavers” to create collaborative stories through role play. These forms of gamification are not only engaging, but also allow for more flexible learning, and while most institutions do not include as in-depth gamification-based curriculum as the charter school, Quest to Learn’s program demonstrates that gamification can be applied to nearly every classroom.

Interestingly, gamification can also be used to increase engagement between both national and local governments and their communities. In Santiago, Chile, for example, in order to combat childhood obesity, the city created local-level competitions in which 10- to 12-year-olds form teams to earn points for healthy 128

behavior that can be used towards prizes such as a trip to the pool or new playground equipment—a program whose success has spurred involvement from parents as well. In terms of civic engagement, the city of Salem, Massachusetts has created a game called “What’s the Point” that seeks out resident ideas for neighborhood improvements and rewards posts with virtual currency, which can then be used to fund real causes in the community. And in Hawaii, the government has gamified its government employees’ online services by creating a website used by all departments in which employees can create a profile and keep track of how much time, paper, and mileage they saved by completing government transactions digitally—and through a community board, employees can then compete against each other with these stats in order to win prizes.

Ultimately, gamification can apply to all forms of learning, whether it is in training new employees, teaching 6th graders math, or bringing together communities and their leaders. Indeed, through the engaging and entertaining nature of gamification, learners will not only be able to retain knowledge better, but have an enjoyable time doing it—and with new discoveries in technology each day, technology-driven gamification may very well be the staple educational tool of the future.

About the author: Ana C. Rold is Founder and CEO of Diplomatic Courier, a Global Affairs Media Network. She teaches political science courses at Northeastern University and is the Host of The World in 2050–A Forum About Our Future. To engage with her on this article follow her on Twitter @ACRold.

129

HOW MILLENNIALS ARE DISRUPTING THE WORKFORCE By: Daniella Foster

T

he next engineer, software developer, pharmacist or freelance writer you hire will likely be a millennial. With millennials, American adults ages 1935 in 2016, rapidly surpassing Gen Xers and the Baby Boomer generation as the largest portion of the American workforce, there will be a subtle, but noticeable shift in the way companies attract and retain top talent. Each generation brings with them a set of working preferences—where they want to work, for whom, how they want to work, what they want to work on, and for how much. While investment bankers were icons of success in the 1980s, startups, technology companies and organizations disrupting the status quo, top the list of desirable employers for millennials.

As millennials enter the workforce in record numbers, here are three trends to watch that will change the way companies work, and shape the future of the job market: 1. Reputation race and the authenticity test - We live in an era of crowdsourced reputation, where the collective wisdom of the crowd provides input into everything from the restaurants where we eat to the products we buy to the professional services we seek and the politicians we vote for. As the first digitally native generation, millennials have grown up networked to social media, online reviews, and instant access to global information. With data easily available, savvy job candidates can quickly learn about everything from an organization’s leadership, mission, and priorities to their reputation, employee experience, salary ranges—and even prospective interview questions. Independent online reviews have become the go-to source for millennials for information about companies, jobs, and bosses. If online reviews from disgruntled restaurant patrons or hotel guests can dissuade future customers, imagine how first-hand reviews from an employee might form a lasting impression about an organization’s reputation, impacting their ability to attract top talent.

130

It’s the organizations that have been at the forefront of the digital evolution that are rapidly adapting and capturing the attention of millennials who use their products or services. Fortune’s first list of the 100 Best Workplaces for Millennials was published in 2015, and the outcomes were surprising. If you expected to see Google top the list, think again—they came in at number 25.

The top ten companies earning the great workplace title (and reputational boost) were not the household technology names that have become synonymous with millennial talent—Google, Facebook and Apple. Instead, you’ll find a collection of less-know but authentically rated companies. The inaugural list was determined by employee reviews, providing first-hand insight into the work environment, culture and employee experience.

While the list is still in its infancy, the message is clear, this generation of workers can’t be swayed by large salaries and Fortune 500 might alone. They want a working environment suited to their skills, work style, and career goals.

Having strong global brand recognition is also not enough to entice millennials.

Over half of the companies on the top ten list are private companies and are not well known. The status quo and play it safe mentality that can come with the pressure of public companies may be a barrier for many millennials who are now turning to innovative companies less beholden to the short-term ebbs and flows of quarterly results.

Breaking through the constant barrage of information means that organizations can no longer rely solely on professional advertising, marketing or competitive benefits packages to entice top talent. Rather it is the actual experience employees have with the company—and the online reviews they share—that bring authenticity to a company, brand, product or service. Online reviews are the new incarnation of “word of mouth”, providing a window into the employee experience and an aggregate rating of the employer’s reputation.

While corporate reputation is going to become even more critical for organizations looking to attract top talent, mission statements and corporate branding alone won’t be a draw. Organizations will actually have to live their principles if they are going to pass the authenticity test with millennials.

2. Fewer politics, more flexibility – Millennials have witnessed the failure of the some of the largest institutions shaping our modern economy, from the Great Recession and the fall of global banks to the gridlock in Washington and near shutdown of the federal government. The results of the Pew Research Center’s surveys on “Millennials in Adulthood” show that millennials have little faith in traditional institutions, with 83% of millennials agreeing with the following statement: “there is too much power concentrated in the hands of a few big companies.” This coupled with the 2015 Gallup “Confidence in Institutions”

131

survey results show that confidence in corporate American is waning, ranking only slightly higher than congress—slotted in the last place.

Millennials have grown up less attached to traditional institutions (whether they be religious or political institutions), and they are leery of investing in the stock market, cynical towards politics, and allergic to hierarchy and bureaucracy.

The organizations that millennial talent tends to gravitate towards all have one thing in common: they enable millennials to express themselves. Whether it is through meaningful purpose-driven work or limited bureaucracy and no pressure to conform, millennials want to be themselves, learning and growing with their job. The millennial generation views work through a slightly different lens, opting to first ask: will the working environment be entrepreneurial and unencumbered by politics?; is the work meaningful, societally relevant, or constructively disruptive?; and, is the organization supportive of my growth?

As employees, millennials want will gravitate towards environments that enable them to tap into technology and social networks to source new ideas.

They want to use their knowledge and networks to tackle problems, leaning on the wisdom of the crowd to help curate opportunities and develop collaborative approaches to intractable problems. Millennials want to work the way they shop—online, anytime, from anywhere, and on their phone (and then they may share their experiences or best practices with their networks). While an open office concept may have been revolutionary in its day, the mobile office (anywhere, anytime) will become the prevailing norm. Work from home options and hoteling offices are already taking over companies—and even government agencies—as lean business models and limited budgets change the way organizations work.

Socially conscious, impact-driven millennials will be drawn to companies and jobs that appeal to their sense of purpose, provide them flexible opportunities to grow, and are free from office bureaucracy.

3. “Gig” economics – Millennials are at the center of the rapidly growing gig economy, whether as consumers opting out of owning cars in favor of car sharing and bike sharing options, or as freelance workers and entrepreneurs leaving behind traditional office environments in favor of shared working spaces and short-term job assignments. They are fueling a new wave of self-employment that is a response to both a dismal job market and a preference for an entrepreneurial, flexible way of working.

Millennials entering the workforce during the great recession (2007-2009) were faced with stagnant wages, layoffs, and dismal job prospects. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics clocking unemployment rates above 10% in 2009, the 132

number of part-time and underemployed workers has been on the rise since the great depression. Limited full-time job options and minimal opportunities for career advancement (despite an increase in student loan debt) have led millennials to embrace short-term gigs, opting to take on short-term assignments and micro-work—or gigs, as they are commonly referred to—to earn a living.

With millennials staying at home longer to conserve funds (and for many, to pay off student loan debt), the prospect of working from anywhere, at their own pace, has an appeal. This coupled with the growing number of online businesses that make microwork readily available has fueled the rise of the gig economy.

As the job market rebounds, many millennials used to the culture of the gig economy are opting out of a salaried job and all of the benefits that come with it—healthcare, retirement plans, paid time off—to go their own way. Millennials that can’t find organizations free from office politics, confining cubicles, and stagnant thinking, have turned to freelancing, setting their own work environment and schedule. With startups such as Uber and Fiverr, anyone can freelance from almost anywhere, bringing added flexibility to when and where you work.

Adapting to disruption Whether it’s finding a new generation of government employees and civil servants to restore trust in government agencies or attracting top MBAs to Fortune 500 companies, the talent war is coming. As millennials overtake the American workforce, organizations that embrace the shift and adapt, will survive. And organizations that don’t will lose their appeal and ability to attract top talent. Without a pipeline of top talent to fill leadership roles and future business needs, innovation will slow and bureaucracy will rule.

Employers don’t have to philosophically agree with the idiosyncratic way millennials work or with their preferences, but they do have to adapt. And the organizations that are successful at attracting—and retaining—top millennial talent will win the talent war.

About the author: Daniella Foster is an executive with Hilton Worldwide.

133

JOIN US FOR THE ANNUAL

GLOBAL TALENT SUMMIT ZURICH, SWITZERLAND | 20 JANUARY 2018 TO RSVP VISIT: GTS18.SPLASHTHAT.COM

ETH Zürich / Gian Marco Castelberg

The Olympics of Innovation

Begins January 2018 2050challenge.com