D IPLOM ATICOURIER.com
A Global Affairs Media Network VO L UME 12 I ISSUE 4 I M AY 2018
TH E C ONNE CT E D CIT Y BLADE RUNNER, THE MATRIX, BACK TO THE FUTURE - OR DO WE WRITE OUR OWN SCRIPT?
SOCIETY
HUMANITY
FUTURISM
DIPLOMACY
GOVERNING THE ASCENT OF AI
KENYA’S SILENT CRISIS
THE FUTURE OF URBAN TRANSPORTATION
A CONCERT FOR UNITY
p12
p18
p38
p42
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m
Contents VO L UM E 12 I ISSUE 4 I M AY 2018
06 I Editor’s Note The World’s Smartest Cities By: Ana C. Rold
08 I Lead Feature Blade Runner, The Matrix, Back to the Future...Or Shall We Write Our Own Script?
24 I Photo Essay Kenya’s Silent Crisis: Africa’s Forgotten Refugees By: Emma Hall
By: Sarah Stokes & Jon Accarrino
28 I Feature Cooling Singapore By: Peter Edwards
By: Louise Merifield & Marc-Elian Bégin
12 I Special Report Governing the Ascent of Artificial Intelligence
32 I Feature Four Universal Language Predictions from Filmmakers By: Sarah Stokes & Jon Accarrino
By: Winona Roylance
16 I Photo Essay The Global City By: Lindsey Washington
38 I Feature What Movies Can Tell Us About the Future of Urban Transportation
36 I Feature Three Bizarre Energy Sources That Might Be Powering the Cities of the Future
42 I Diplomatic Life Concert for Unity Makes Case for Cultural Diplomacy By: Jacqueline Christ
44 I Report Review Data Driven Cities: 20 Stories of Innovation By: Lindsey Washington
By: Sarah Stokes & Jon Accarrino
Masthead Publishing house Medauras Global publisher & ceo Ana C. Rold Creative Director Christian Gilliham Chief Technology officer Chris Purifoy director of social media Madeline Terry un correspondent Akshan de Alwis DC EDITORS Michael Kofman Paul Nash Bailey Piazza Winona Roylance Shalini Trefzer
CONTRIBUTORS Jon Accarrino C. Naseer Ahmad Marc-Elian Bégin Jacqueline Christ Amb Charles Crawford Peter Edwards Amb Marc Ginsberg Justin Goldman Emma Hall Caroline Holmund Coby Jones Sarah Jones Louise Merifield Daniel Metz Arun S. Nair Uju Okoye Richard Rousseau Winona Roylance Sarah Stokes
photographers Michelle Guillermin Emma Hall Sebastian Rich Editorial Advisors Fumbi Chima Sir Ian Forbes Lisa Gable Anders Hedberg Mary D. Kane Greg Lebedev Anita McBride director of sales Henry Chung Marketing associate Sophie Kwisda Researchers Yulia Buynova Lindsey Washington
PUBLISHING. Diplomatic Courier magazine is produced by Medauras Global LLC, an independent private publishing firm. The magazine is printed six times a year and publishes a blog and online commentary weekly at www.diplomaticourier.com. PRINT. Print issues of Diplomatic Courier average 40-60 pages in length. Individual and back issues cost $10.00 per issue (plus S&H). Student rates are available to both part-time and full-time students with proof of school enrollment. New print issues of Diplomatic Courier are published and mailed in January, March, May, July, September, and November. Subscriptions commence with the next issue. EDITORIAL. The articles in Diplomatic Courier both in print and online represent the views of their authors and do not reflect those of the editors and the publishers. While the editors assume responsibility for the selection, the authors are responsible for the facts and interpretations of their articles. PERMISSIONS. Authors retain all copyrights to their articles. None of the articles can be reproduced without their permission and that of the publishers. For permissions please email info@medauras.com with your written request. ISSN. The Library of Congress has assigned: ISSN 2161-7260 (Print); ISSN 2161-7287 (Online). ISBN: 978-1-942772-01-9 (Print); 978-1-942772-02 (Online).
letters to the editor/editorial submissions Editors@diplomaticourier.org advertising/sponsorship/sales Info@medauras.com website/apps support ITsupport@medauras.com mailing address 1660 L Street, NW, Suite 501 Washington, DC 20036 United States download the app for free
LEGAL. Copyright ©2006-2018 Diplomatic Courier and Medauras Global. All rights reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced without written consent of the publishers. All trademarks that appear in this publication are the property of the respective owners. Any and all companies featured in this publication are contacted by Medauras Global and the Diplomatic Courier to provide advertising and/or services. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of information in this publication, however, Medauras Global and the Diplomatic Courier magazine make no warranties, express or implied in regards to the information, and disclaim all liability for any loss, damages, errors, or omissions. ART/PHOTOGRAPHY/ILLUSTRATIONS. In order of appearance: page 6, photo by Joyce Boghosian; page 10, image in the public domain/Blade Runner 2049; pages 12-13, photos courtesy of the International Monetary Fund; pages 17-21, photos by Alessio Lin, Alexandr Bormotin, Bibhu Behera, Bogdan Dada, Breno Assis, Cayetano Gil, Fahrul Azmi, Ivan Leung, Massimo Garanzelli, Mwangi Gatheca, and Sergio Rola, via Unsplash; pages 24-27, photos by Emma Hall; pages 28-30, photos by Chen Hu, Douglas Sanchez, and Fahrul Azmi, via Unsplash; page 33, image in the public domain/Star Trek; page 34, image in the public domain/Stargate; page 37, image in the public domain/The Matrix; pages 42-43, photos courtesy of Susan C. Lehrman. All other images and photos by Bigstockphotos.com.
M AY 2 0 1 8 04
Societal disrupter. Cultural mover. Game changer. At APCO, we bring the most dynamic and innovative communications solutions to help decision makers thrive in today’s uncertain and fractured world. It’s why we’re the partner of choice for our clients – we understand their stakeholders and the challenges of bringing together diverse interests.
Distinct Perspectives. Deliver Impact.
See how we help clients make an impact at apcoworldwide.com/our-work.
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m
Welcome V O L UM E 12 I ISSUE 4 I M ay 2018
Ana C. Rold Publisher & CEO
The World’s Smartest Cities It is not news that the urban sphere is becoming ever important. But more than that, urbanization—just like globalization—has become a fundamental process defining the human experience in the 21st century as never before. Cities currently house over 50% of the world’s population and generate 80% of the world’s GDP. The UN estimates that continuing urbanization and population growth will add 2.5 billion people to the world’s urban population by 2050, with nearly 90% of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa. By 2035, the demand for energy will increase by 33%. And by 2050, demand for water and energy will increase by 55%. As people migrate to cities, existing infrastructure will need to be improved or we will face significant shortages. In this Spring edition of Diplomatic Courier, we wondered what makes cities smart and what makes them global. For the answer on the first, we looked for inspiration in pop culture: how did films imagine future cities? It appears the world of film has made some great predictions in the fields of transportation, language, city planning, energy solutions, and more. We also delved deeply into the 2018 edition of the Future Today Institute’s annual emerging tech trends report. According to the report, in 2016 78 cities applied for the U.S. Department of Transportation’s “Smart City” challenge, which would award the winner $40 million in federal grant money to upgrade their urban transit systems. DoT selected Columbus, Ohio, as the winner for its proposal to deploy self-driving electric shuttles, launch smart cards to provide free car-sharing services, and develop a connected traffic light system to reduce traffic jams throughout the city. And in Australia, the City of Melbourne has launched a Smart City Office, which includes open data projects, a 24-hour pedestrian counting system and city-wide free public Wi-Fi. Public-private partnerships, affordable technology, long-term urban and budget planning, and equal access to all citizens are just a few things that make cities smart. And it should come as no surprise to our readers that the world’s smartest cities in 2018 include Dubai, Boston, Berlin, Doha, Zurich, Hong Kong, New York, Seoul, Osaka, San Francisco, and Vancouver. After all, these are also global cities—according to AT Kearney, they firm that ranks them. What will the smart, connected, global city of the future look like? We can write our own script, say the authors of our lead feature. With big data, ubiquitous sensors, computer intelligence, and transportation technology (autonomous cars, flying cars, Hyperloop, etc.) we can imagine central systems that are far more efficient and offer far greater performance than the ones around today. The implications of exponential technologies on cities is vast, and in our lifetimes, we will see exciting developments that blur the lines between science fiction and reality. ●
M AY 2 0 1 8 06
KPMG supports the Global Goals for Sustainable Development KPMG works to lift people out of poverty, build resilience, and help ensure sustainable economic growth. kpmg.com/IDAS
© 2016 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved. Printed in the U.S.A. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. NDPPS 612252
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m
l e a d f e at u r e CITIES
blade runner, the matrix, back to the future... or shall we write our own script? By Louise Merifield & Marc-Elian Bégin
M AY 2 0 1 8 08
lR e aEdF fUeGatEuErSe CITIES
“Picture the cities in your favorite futuristic movie. They probably include hover boards, flying driverless transport capsules, selfdiagnosing machines, life changing personal medicine and many more time-saving, transformative, energy-efficient amazing inventions.�
09
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m
l e a d f e at u r e CITIES
P
icture the cities in your favorite futuristic movie. They probably include hover boards, flying driverless transport capsules, self-diagnosing machines, life changing personal medicine and many more timesaving, transformative, energyefficient amazing inventions. However, these movies always include an arch villain, draconian controls on personal freedom, and at the very least, depressing weather. Are we now at the point where we can decide which of those things we want to become reality and steer ourselves away from the less desirable issues? We believe so. There may even be something we can do about the depressing weather. We are already well on the way to driverless transport and self-diagnosing machines—although we may have to wait some time for the hover board. The Internet of Things (IoT), edge and cloud computing, as well as artificial intelligence, will deliver municipalities with the opportunity to provide citizens with improved services, such as smart traffic, transport, lighting, medical data sharing, entertainment and personal security. Indeed, using sensors, data and connected devices, traffic will flow more smoothly and emergency services will be able to respond more quickly. With less cars on the streets and public transport becoming more personal, as point-to-point driverless options become available, we will be able to achieve not only a less stressful journey to work, but also higher air quality. Electric cars will also lower noise pollution and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. And finally, with fast mediumdistance transport solutions such as hyperloop-style partial vacuum train systems, we will be able to rethink daily commutes and intercity transport strategies. This should lead to more lifestyle options as well as our ability to remodel public spaces as exchange and interaction spaces, and as a new outlet for urban art, visuals, sound and music.
MANAGING THE NEED FOR CORPORATE INVESTMENT Yet, as with any technological leap, there will be winners and losers unless we are ready to protect citizens’ rights, avoid marginalization, and enforce freedom of information. This last point is key, since the investment to deliver such a high level of innovation will be colossal and although taxpayers are ready to enjoy the benefits, they are less willing to foot the bill. The efficiency and investment capabilities of the private sector will probably be required, involving the promotion of co-funding models such as public-private partnerships. However, improving services via connected devices, IoT and advanced analytics involves collecting vast amounts of data. We have already seen that data is becoming a valuable currency. It can be of great economic value to large businesses, and this is where citizens start to get jittery. Corporations will be tempted to retain ownership of data produced by the smart city in order to create new business opportunities, and no-one wants to see their personal information sold off for marketing or other purposes without consent. Laws such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which has the intention of strengthening and unifying data protection for all individuals within the European Union, are welcome but are nevertheless very complex and opaque to most citizens. One
M AY 2 0 1 8 10
challenge for governments is to produce legislation which is digestible by the average citizen, and thereby engages them, yet still covers all loopholes. A more daunting challenge is to bridge the digital divide by ensuring technology benefits rich and poor alike. Corporations are less interested in developing solutions for people with little or no budget, as we see already in fields such as pharmaceuticals. A VOICE FOR THE PEOPLE In contrast, the smart city also has the potential to promote direct engagement between the city’s authorities, political elite and its citizens. By promoting open data and clear governance policies, citizens and civil society will be able to leverage precious data in order to inform themselves and engage with the city and its various stakeholders. In an era plagued with fake news and dubious practices taking hold of social media, we could argue that access to truth is becoming a citizen’s fundamental right. Your digital identity should be your property, not that of a faceless technocrat. It has to be made easier for smaller players to compete and succeed in this field, creating a healthier balance for companies. Watchdogs and not-for-profit organizations must also have access to funding which will allow them to monitor and report objectively on the use and misuse of data. Only in this way will we build
lR e aEdF fUeGatEuErSe CITIES
trust and feel confident that our privacy is being respected. HOW DO YOU WANT IT TO END? Although we all have our own idea of Utopia, we have to accept that cities will play a huge role in our future. With the current rate of population growth, mass urbanization is inevitable. We can continue to head for the mega city with sprawling housing and crowded spaces. Or we can grab the opportunity innovative technologies
are now offering us and build a web of interlinked communities, connected by fast and affordable transport, which facilitate access to services, recreation and employment, as well as a wonderful range of diverse cultures, technologies, arts and ideas. “Then man made the machine in his own likeness. Thus, did man become the architect of his own demise.” Let’s make sure The Instructor from The Animatrix was wrong and build the cities that this planet deserves. And maybe by doing so we’ll deserve it too. ●
It has to be made easier for smaller players to compete and succeed in this field, creating a healthier balance for companies.
11
ABOUT THE AUTHORs Marc-Elian Bégin is CEO and co-founder of SixSq, an SME based in Geneva, Switzerland. He has worked with the Canadian and European Space Agencies, as well as CERN, on distributed software systems, grid and cloud computing development projects. His current focus is edge computing technologies and is passionate about building smart city solutions and open data access. Louise Merifield is Operations Manager and co-founder of SixSq. She has worked for the UK public service and the European Central Bank and now focuses on communications, hoping to improve everyone’s understanding of technology.
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m THE ASCENT OF AI
GOVERNING A THE ASCENT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE By: Winona Roylance
s the Fourth Industrial Revolution continues to see technology advance at unprecedented rates, it can be argued that it is artificial intelligence that is moving at the fastest pace—and perhaps with the most promise. Indeed, while artificial intelligence seems like a technology of the distant future, it is in fact already disrupting every facet of life, from law to warfare to the very concept of what it means to be human. At the recent IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings—specifically, the IMF’s New Economy Forum—Nicolas Economou, Chairman and Chief Executive of H5, argued that due to the rapid transformations artificial intelligence is beginning to create, it is absolutely critical that we begin discussing the governance of AI and the framework by which societies should delegate decisions to machines in an effort to mitigate the impact of risks as we move forward—lest we begin to see the beginnings of a dystopian-like future. Moderated by Diplomatic Courier’s own Ana C. Rold, here are the key takeaways. There is a plethora of definitions of artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence today is broadly defined as big data-driven, massively M AY 2 0 1 8 12
computerized, machine learningcentric algorithmic systems. However, such definitions fail to account for unexpected sources of innovation and also remain inaccessible to the ordinary citizen. Therefore, it may be preferable to define artificial intelligence in simpler terms as the science and engineering of intelligent systems. Despite these working definitions, however, it is most likely futile that we’ll come to an all-agreed definition of AI anytime soon. After all, we still don’t have a settled definition of human intelligence after 3,000 years of scientific and philosophical debates. The more important question is what artificial intelligence is NOT. Rather than focusing on the complexity of what AI is, it may be more useful to keep in mind what it is not. AI does not have empathy— it cannot mourn a deceased family member, for example. AI cannot feel nostalgia about its childhood, dream about its future, or feel any of the joys and sorrows that are so central to the human experience. Therefore, it is important to remember that while artificial intelligence may be many things, it is not artificial humanity—a crucial aspect to take
S P E C I A L R E P O RT
“While the pace of change is rapid, we still have time to establish global, but culturally adaptive, norms for the beneficial governance of AI.”
“Artificial intelligence is many things to many people. but artificial intelligence is not artificial humanity.”
into consideration when thinking about how to govern AI. There are different types of artificial intelligence. While the AI of today can be extremely well suited to certain discrete tasks—such as playing chess—modern AI’s inability to intuitively solve a range of versatile problems makes it unlikely that artificial intelligence will reach a level of cognition similar to human intelligence anytime soon. Artificial general intelligence (AGI) will most likely not be realized in the foreseeable future, but more narrow forms of AI will continue to evolve at a rapid pace, with progressively less human supervision. The Fourth Industrial Revolution is different in many ways from past industrial revolutions. While the Fourth Industrial Revolution is similar to past revolutions in its system-wide impact and universal disruption of power, there are many new challenges we must also face. There is a difference in magnitude and velocity. During the First Industrial Revolution, there were approximately one billion people alive; in the 1970’s,
that number increased to around three billion. Today there are seven billion people worldwide, with artificial intelligence set to affect them all in immense ways. More importantly, the speed at which this transformation is happening is unprecedented, with McKinsey predicting that by 2030, 30% of the workforce in the developed world will need to adjust to new or different types of work due to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
13
The tolerance for violence is different. During the First Industrial Revolution, the distress and disruption caused by dramatic changes in the manufacturing process brought about a great deal of suffering— most of which society was able to tolerate. Today, societies’ tolerance for violence is far lower, which raises considerable public policy and public order questions in how citizens may respond to radical change. ➣
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m THE ASCENT OF AI
➣ The Fourth Industrial Revolution will force us to reevaluate our very nature. While prior industrial revolutions forced us to reexamine our relationship to work and how society is organized, the advent of artificial intelligence will confront us instead with our very conception of what it means to be human. The risks and opportunities associated with artificial intelligence are intertwined. While there is much fear over the inherent risks of artificial intelligence, these risks mirror groundbreaking opportunities for the future of humanity. It is this high stakes intertwining of risks and opportunities that make AI governance so important. Already, AI is being used in the court system. In the legal system, for example, in a recent case in Wisconsin, a judge relied in part on a black box algorithm to determine the length of the sentence for a person who committed a crime. The defendant was denied the right to examine the algorithm. An AI algorithm was thus used to determine the length of a sentence, without any review of its decision-making pathways, any scientific evidence of its effectiveness, or any evidence that anyone in the courtroom was competent to understand it. This example illustrates the risks of AI adoption in the absence of norms. But one can envision the sound deployment of AI in the legal system to facilitate access to justice
and to produce more consistent system-wide outcomes. There are opportunities and risks in “social” artificial intelligence. Studies in psychology have revealed that humans interact with human-like machines much the same way they interact with humans, which has numerous potential benefits in providing care for children, the elderly and the socially isolated, and for education. However, this same mechanism carries risks as well, and we should ask questions of what kind of values, perspectives and political alignments such artificial intelligence would carry that could affect the people they interact with, but also our democratic institutions. We need to begin discussing how we should approach the governance of artificial intelligence. An effective, adaptable and legitimate framework for the governance of AI is indispensable. The goal of governing artificial intelligence, explained Economou, is precisely to prevent the possibility that AI governs us. AI must remain an instrument in the hands of humans for the benefit of humans. In order to build a framework, we need to address important questions first. First, to what extend should societies delegate to machines decisions that affect people? What central values should artificial intelligence be advancing? What
M AY 2 0 1 8 14
principles, ethical values, public policy recommendations, technical standards and codes of practice should a framework that governs AI entail? And what methodology should be used to go about creating this framework? Creating a consensus AI governance framework is challenging, but our experience governing human intelligence can help. AI brings up some entirely new ethical challenges, in particular the surrender of human agency to non-ethical agents. Even so, in developing a governance framework for AI, we can learn a lot from three thousand years of experience in governing human intelligence. Many of the principles, laws, norms, regulations, codes of practice, and even international agreements we have applied to “HI” can translate to the governance of AI. There is a lack of international cooperation. While there is tremendously good research surrounding AI both at the national and international levels, international cooperation on governance of AI is insufficient. Some emerging endeavors in this respect are laudable, including the IEEE Global Initiative on Ethics of Autonomous and Intelligent Systems, the Dubai Global Governance of AI Roundtable, President Macron’s proposal for an IPCC for AI, as well as the emergence of international think tanks such as The Future Society, which are exclusively focused on addressing the governance of AI. ●
Where nations connect Effective diplomacy requires influence and in DC’s international circles no place says influence like the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. Whether an economic summit, trade negotiation or a private diplomatic affair, our international trade experts and expansive network of leaders enable embassies and governments to amplify their message and strengthen their impact, locally and globally. Expand your reach. Grow your influence with us.
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m G
A
L
L
E
R
Y
the global city
Introduction by Lindsey Washington
A
t its core, the term “global city” is rooted in economics. Beginning in the fifteenth century globalization took root and the world’s disparate regional economies began to converge. As a result, economic hubs began to emerge in key cities around the world. It is to this phenomenon that the term “global city” refers to. As Saskia Sassen defines them in her seminal 2001 analysis, global cities are significant production points that are integral to the global economy. They contain highly specialized production services and have almost universally developed advanced financial markets. However, global cities encompass more than just their economic roots. The opportunities these cities present
act as magnets for people from all walks of life and cultures, creating meeting points at which cultures may coexist and mix together. Consequently, global cities are defined as much by their diversity as they are by their economic importance. Moreover, global cities have come to be known for their iconic cultural landmarks. For example, the Louvre and Eiffel Tower in Paris and the Statue of Liberty in New York City are world famous. For this reason, the global city’s skyline is an integral to its global recognition. In addition to culture, global cities are characterized by their political importance and media presence. It is hard to imagine a truly global city that does not play some significant role in the international political arena
or have an established media outlet. In this way, global cities are gateways through which the world’s economies, cultures, politics, news, and people may pass, creating the wholly unique atmosphere for which they are known. But why do we study cities in international affairs? The Census Bureau counts 232,581,397 Americans—82.6 percent of the population—living in the nation’s cities. Urbanization has also become a fundamental process affecting the landscape of international affairs. Now we see cities and mayors with more clout—and power—than entire countries. The city can no longer be appreciated for its architecture; it has to be appreciated for its position in global affairs. ●
“Most people think that a (city) state in order to be happy ought to be large, but even if they are right, they have no idea what is a large and what is a small state. For they judge the size of the city by the number of inhabitants, whereas they ought to regard not their number but their power.” -ARISTOTLE, POLITICS (C. 330 BC: ATHENS) M AY 2 0 1 8 16
G
SHANGHAI, CHINA
A
L
L
E
R
Y
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m G
A
L
L
E
HONG KONG
BARRA DA TIJUCA, BRAZIL
M AY 2 0 1 8 18
R
Y
G
A
L
L
E
R
Y
BOLOGNA, ITALY
SHANGHAI, CHINA
NEW ORLEANS, USA
DELHI, INDIA
19
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m G
A
L
L
E
R
Y
KUALA LUMPUR
MATERA, ITALY
SUZHOU, CHINA
M AY 2 0 1 8 20
G
A
L
L
E
R
Y
BANGKOK, THAILAND
Unify & Amplify Global Voices Hyperdrive Global Solutions Version 1 [SOCRATES] Hashtag Library uniďŹ es global sentiment to surface the most meaningful voices, ideas, content and solutions. It synchronizes our thinkers, doers and research, to supercharge global solutions and power tribes.
A Living Archive of Humanity Find Out More hashtaglibrary.com
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m G
A
L
L
E
R
Y
K enya’s Silent Crisis: Africa’s forgotten refugees Essay & Photos by Emma Hall
A
ccording to the UNHCR, there have been 483,597 registered refugees and asylum-seekers since February 28, 2018. From that number, 27,825 have been Ethiopians. But the global public— even Kenyan citizens—don’t seem to know much about the 10,000 Ethiopians entering Kenya. This photo project ties in both the intimacy and grief of the daily life as a refugee. Staying the night in a refugee shelter was an aspect that makes this perspective unique. There was the ability to form trusting relationships and expose the vulnerability of one family affected.
On March 10th, 2018, Ethiopian citizens witnessed 13 innocent people of the Oromo tribe, get murdered by their own police. In August of 2017, Ethiopia lifted a 10-month state of emergency. since the Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, stepped down from his position in February of this year, Ethiopia has reclaimed a state of emergency. After the death of the 13 people, the melting pot of Ethiopia and Kenya’s border mixed a little more than usual. Thousands fled to Kenya to find refuge, 80% of them women and children, and 1,500 children
under the age of five. Families came with nothing but the clothes on their backs, sometimes walking for 12 hours, or more, straight. Locals in Kenyan villages took the first refugees in, aiding them in any way they could. The Kenyan Red Cross, UNHCR, and UNICEF were immediately notified and took action. Providing refugees with shelters, basic food, blankets, and water. Refugees grew to 9,667, says County Secretary Malich Boru, since they first arrived. Located in one of the four refugee camps, Dambala Fachana (DF), a 50-year-old woman by the name
“It happened in the night. We were eating and then we heard gun shots. We ran for our lives.” Molu, her granddaughter, and her daughter walked across the border together.
M AY 2 0 1 8 24
G
A
L
L
E
R
Y
➣ Refugee women wait in line to receive food and water rations for the next two weeks.
of Darmi Molu was one of the many civilians that witnessed the massacre of her people. She told me, “It happened in the night. We were eating and then we heard gun shots. We ran for our lives.” Molu, her granddaughter, and her daughter walked across the border together. Starting at 6 a.m. and finally entering into the camp at 6 p.m. The Red Cross volunteer, Diid Jarso, told me they were among the first people to arrive. Women line up to receive their rations of food every two weeks and in order to receive it; they first need to prove they had registered
in the camp. Waiting for hours in line, they circle around a volunteer in a plastic chair who checks their names. In his hands is a list of all of the registered refugees. In their hands they carry dirty UNICEF water jugs and empty bags to be filled with maze. The line of bare feet leads to their fingerprints being stamped as they go back to their shelters with food, water, and vegetable oil. A small hospital operated by volunteers through the Red Cross, occupies a concrete building where there were two ladies on wooden beds hooked up to IV
25
drips. They were both suffering from dehydration, the most common medical problem within the camp. In the next room over was a small girl, only one and a half years old getting a bloodied bandage removed from her left leg. Comforted by the arms of her father, she shed tears as the doctor removed the bandage and held her leg over a small metal bowl, letting the puss drain. Since this, Ethiopia has appointed a new prime minister in hopes of resurrecting peace within the country. Refugees are expected to stay in Kenya for another two months. ●
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m G
A
L
L
E
R
Y
➣ A young girl asks her mother to help put the jerrycan full of water on her back.
➣ Ethiopian refugees prove their identification in
➣ One of the most common medical problems
order to receive rations of food.
within the camp is dehydration. A woman is hooked up to an IV drip as her relative waits for her recovery.
M AY 2 0 1 8 26
G
A
L
L
E
R
Y
➣ Vegetable oil is given
as rations for the refugees to cook with.
➣ Two siblings are
held by their father.
27
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m COOLING SINGAPORE
COOLING O SINGAPORE By: Peter Edwards
ne of the delights of the tropics is the delicious cool air in the evening. As the sun goes down, people move gratefully to their gardens or balconies, or flock to parks to enjoy the remains of the day—but not in Singapore. The city is too hot, especially in the evening, with temperatures that often remain in the high 20’s or low 30’s Celsius (82° – 86°F) throughout the night. This is not just, because Singapore has a tropical climate, but because the city has grown warmer in recent years due to the “Urban Heat Island” effect (UHI). The reasons for UHI are well known. Cities have less vegetation than rural areas to provide shade and to cool the air; they consume huge amounts of energy in electricity and fuel; they trap the sun’s radiation in deep urban canyons between high buildings; and they contain massive amounts of steel and concrete that store the sun’s warmth. To be clear, UHI is not the same as climate change, although both cause Singapore to get warmer. According to a recent study by Singapore’s meteorological service, the Centre for Climate Research Singapore and the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre, by the end of the century, average temperatures will rise by between 1.4°C and 4.6°C. In response to the global M AY 2 0 1 8 28
concern about climate change, Singapore has developed strong policies for understanding and addressing the potential problems. In particular, it is a signatory of the Paris Agreement that calls for capping the rise in global average temperature to, “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels,” while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. Few would dispute that this concern for climate change is right and responsible. However, the effect of climate change upon temperatures in Singapore is currently much smaller than that of the Urban Heat Island effect. While the effects of UHI vary across the city, the difference compared to rural areas averages 3°C to 4°C, and in the evening can be as much as 8°C. Such elevated temperatures should also be a matter for concern. Higher temperatures not only reduce thermal comfort, but also discourage people from outdoor activities such as walking and cycling. As the temperature rises, so does the demand for air-conditioning, which now accounts for over half of all electricity consumed in commercial buildings and a large percentage of residential buildings. Urban warming also has unwanted environmental effects,
F E AT U R E
“Cities have less vegetation than rural areas to provide shade and to cool the air; they consume huge amounts of energy in electricity and fuel; they trap the sun’s radiation in deep urban canyons between high buildings; and they contain massive amounts of steel and concrete that store the sun’s warmth.”
such as reducing the availability of water and trapping pollution and; therefore, reducing air quality. It also increases the occurrence of heavy storms and flash floods. If nothing is done to curb it, Singapore’s UHI will only get worse as the population grows and the size and density of buildings increase. Indeed, average temperatures could well increase by 6°C by the end of the century through a combination of climate change and a growing UHI. Such an increase would severely impair the quality of life for Singaporeans, as well as pose a threat to the country’s environmental sustainability and economic activity. Thankfully, further warming of Singapore is not inevitable. There are many ways to mitigate the UHI effect, some of which have been known for centuries. Before the advent of air conditioning, builders showed great skill in designing structures that remained cool even in the hottest climates, in an approach known as “passive cooling.” A large suite of tried and tested measures are known, including green roofs, green corridors, passive cooling systems, reflective materials, permeable pavements, and so on. Today, we also have modelling tools that enable us to assess the
contribution of these different measures to thermal comfort. In addition, new technologies offer exciting new possibilities, such as novel coating materials that reduce the absorption of solar energy or promote the re-radiation of energy. However, despite all of these promising technological advances, there are important gaps in our knowledge. For instance, how do we estimate the cumulative effect of many small measures upon the overall climate of the city? What steps should take the highest priority if we are to achieve a significant reduction in urban temperatures?
29
Many people believe it is becoming urgent for Singapore to find answers to these questions and develop a concerted strategy to reducing its UHI. Such a strategy would be a major undertaking, and would affect many planning functions, including urban planning, building, transport, energy, and the environment, among others. To contribute to such a strategy, a research project, “Cooling Singapore,” was recently launched with the aim of providing actionable knowledge for policymakers. The project forms part of the National Research Foundation’s CREATE program and brings ➣
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m COOLING SINGAPORE
“new technologies offer exciting new possibilities, such as novel coating materials that reduce the absorption of solar energy or promote the re-radiation of energy.” ➣ together research teams from the Singapore-ETH Centre, SMART, TUM CREATE and NUS. One of its goals is to build an expert community within academia and government that can help guide policy in mitigating UHI in the longer term. To meet this goal, it has set up a ‘UHI task force’ composed of representatives from government agencies and universities to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and to jointly develop an effective and realistic policy ‘roadmap’. The challenge of reversing urban warming is both daunting and rewarding. There is much to be done, but if we succeed, we can make future cities places where people feel comfortable outdoors as well as indoors, encouraging them to pursue more active lifestyles, while using less energy for cooling and transport. Best of all, we can enjoy sitting on the balcony with a cool beer, watching the sun go down! ●
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Peter Edwards is a Professor Emeritus of ETH Zurich and former Director of the Singapore-ETH Centre, which manages two major programs: The Future Cities Laboratory and Future Resilient Systems. He was professor of Plant Ecology at ETH Zurich and an adjunct professor in the Asian School of the Environment at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore.
M AY 2 0 1 8 30
IMF Publications‌ Keeping readers in touch with global economic issues
Visit Bookstore.imf.org/DC18 I
N
T
E
R
N
A
T
I
O
N
A
L
M
O
N
E
T
A
R
Y
F
U
N
D
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m UNIVERSAL LANGUAGE
FOUR F UNIVERSAL LANGUAGE PREDICTIONS FROM FILMMAKERS
rom highway signs to emergency announcements, information needs to be communicated to both city inhabitants as well as visiting populations. So what language(s) should city planners consider making part of their city’s future? Television and movie scriptwriters spend a lot of time brainstorming about this exact subject. Let’s look at four entertainment properties and examine their predictions on the future of spoken language in our society. ELYSIUM (2013) A Universal Language for Business, Politics, Computer Systems & Aviation
By: Sarah Stokes & Jon Accarrino
In addition to being a thrilling sci-fi action movie starring Matt Damon and Jodie Foster, the film Elysium explores several themes relevant to city planners including healthcare, immigration, overpopulation and language. According to the film, in the year 2154, the upper class will migrate away from a devastated Earth to a luxury space habitat called Elysium where many of the wealthy speak French. The lower class lives on an overpopulated, ravaged Earth M AY 2 0 1 8 32
where Spanish is the primary language. However, both classes speak English. Residents on both Earth and Elysium use English when discussing business and politics. Additionally, all computer screens and flight control information is displayed in English. Essentially, English is the universal language of this society. Seeing a future where English is the standard language for computer systems and flight isn’t entirely unthinkable. The airline industry currently uses English as a “universal language.” In 2008, the UN agency, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) decreed that all Air Traffic Controllers and Flight Crew Members, engaged in or in contact with international flights, must be proficient in the English language. Also, almost all computer programming is currently done in English. Over a third of all programming languages were developed in a country with English as the primary language. In addition, many computer languages developed in nonEnglish-speaking countries, use English as their base to appeal to an international audience.
F E AT U R E
STARGATE (1994-2011) Doesn’t everyone already speak English? In the popular sci-fi film and television franchise, Stargate (Stargate, Stargate SG-1, Stargate Atlantis and Stargate Universe), everyone knows how to speak English in the totality of existence, including human cultures and aliens. According to Stargate, English is truly a “universal language.” It’s a silly and unexplained assumption by the show’s creators, but it actually raises a fair point. Can we expect everyone to know how to speak English? It many seem strange to ask that question, but how often have you seen this happen or assumed so yourself? It’s not uncommon for an Englishspeaking traveler to attempt to speak English to someone in a foreign country... and get a response! Even though there are more native Mandarin Chinese and Spanish speakers globally, English has become our lingua franca, or bridge language, used by people to communicate who speak different languages. English is also the most common second language spoken by people around the world. It’s
considered the easiest to learn and the most practical for business. Right now, over 1 billion people are currently learning English in a variety of counties around the world. BLADE RUNNER (1982) Mixed Languages & Cityspeak Ridley Scott’s cinematic film, Blade Runner, takes place in a futuristic Los Angeles where the streets have become a giant overcrowded slum. English is the main language used by the wealthy, business owners, police officials, and even robot workers known as replicants. However, the language spoken by the average person on the streets is a hybrid language called “Cityspeak,” a mixture of Spanish, French, Chinese, German, Hungarian, and Japanese. It’s not inconceivable that an overcrowded society, with people from many different cultures, might organically create their own hybrid or mixed language. Jamaican Patois, Cappadocian Greek, and Kormakiti Arabic are just a few examples of mixed languages created from similar circumstances.
33
STAR TREK (1966) Universal Translator What if learning languages was no longer necessary and technology was able to automatically translate everything for us? In sci-fi television and film franchise, Star Trek, a technology called the Universal Translator is used to allow both organic and non-organic species to communicate seamlessly with each other.
“From highway signs to emergency announcements, information needs to be communicated to both city inhabitants as well as visiting populations. So what language(s) should city planners consider making part of their city’s future?” Language translation technology was true science fiction in the 1960’s when the show debuted, but today, your average smartphone or tablet can provide sophisticated speech ➣
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m UNIVERSAL LANGUAGE
➣ or image translation services. An iPad app called TableTop translator enables two people sitting across from each other to have their conversation translated. And the World Lens app can even translate images from a smartphone camera. Just take a picture of a sign or an item from a restaurant menu and World Lens can translate the text for you in the matter of moments. Both of these apps have a delay and make real-time conversations awkward. But a real-time translation solution might be right around the corner. Microsoft is already demoing real-time voice translation services using their popular video conferencing application Skype. Once perfected, the technology will enable a new era in global communication. And as wearable technology evolves, it’s only a matter of time until translation services are integrated into everything from hearing aids to Google Glass-like eyewear that can display subtitles from conversations in real-time. Technology aside, there’s obviously a need for a universal language. So why don’t we already have one? It’s not for lack of trying. In 1887, Ludwig Lazarus Zamenhof created an international auxiliary language called Esperanto that would be easy-to-learn and politically neutral.
“Will a universal language eventually exist? Having a universal language would certainly be helpful for all city planners. Imagine if everyone could read the same signs, follow transit information or communicate in emergency situations? Will it be English? Will technology inspired by the Star Trek Universal Translator eventually bridge our global communication gap?”
M AY 2 0 1 8 34
Esperanto started to gain in popularity in parts of Europe but was aggressively halted during World War II. In Adolf Hitler’s book, Mein Kampf, he calls Esperanto an international conspiracy language and Esperantists were one of the groups actively killed during the Holocaust by the Nazis. There have been coordinated efforts to revive Esperanto, however despite those efforts, few of us have enthusiastically embraced the language. Although international organizations and businesses, including the European Union and the airline industry, have made the English language their standard, would English make sense for everyday global citizens? Will a universal language eventually exist? Having a universal language would certainly be helpful for all city planners. Imagine if everyone could read the same signs, follow transit information or communicate in emergency situations? Will it be English? Will technology inspired by the Star Trek Universal Translator eventually bridge our global communication gap? ●
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m ENERGY SOURCES
THREE W BIZARRE ENERGY SOURCES THAT MIGHT BE POWERING THE CITIES OF THE FUTURE
hat will be the future energy needs of our cities? According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the world averages an energy increase of 1.5 quadrillion BTUs annually. That number is much higher in developing regions and especially in non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. Although it’s impossible to accurately predict exact energy needs, one thing is for sure, energy will be both massive and critical for the future of any major city. So how can city administrators help prepare for the energy needs of the future? Let’s look to Hollywood for inspiration. Some of their ideas may surprise you in their probability. Here are three alternate power sources that every city planner should be thinking about. HUMAN ENERGY The Matrix (1999)
By: Sarah Stokes & Jon Accarrino
In the groundbreaking sci-fi film, The Matrix (1999), sentient Machines have defeated the human race and now rule the planet. Powering this mechanical army are massive human “farms” capable of harvesting our body heat and bioelectrical energy. M AY 2 0 1 8 36
Maybe, the Machines were on to something. Eighty percent of our body power is given off as heat. Even a sleeping human generates as much as 100 to 120 watts of energy. This is enough energy to power most popular electronics—if it could be harnessed. While no one is proposing installing outlets in the back of our heads just yet, clever engineers are experimenting with ways that the human body can help generate power. As far back as 1998, Japanese manufacturer Seiko, experimented with a watch, the Seiko Thermic, that operated almost entirely off of energy derived from body heat. Though the model was only available for a short while, it was a true pioneer in the field of thermal energy. In addition to body heat, everyday human movement can generate power. Pannekoekstraat, a dance club in the Netherlands, has a sustainable dance floor that converts the kinetic energy of people dancing into electrical power. Energy Floors, the Dutch company behind the innovative dance floor, also creates energy generating surfaces for high traffic pedestrian walkways as well as paved motorways. Installing piezo-electric materials, that produce electricity when they are put under pressure in high traffic areas,
F E AT U R E
“Maybe, the Machines were on to something. Eighty percent of our body power is given off as heat. Even a sleeping human generates as much as 100 to 120 watts of energy. This is enough energy to power most popular electronics— if it could be harnessed.” locations like bars, busy streets or stadiums. Everything from car horns, concerts, restaurant chatter and don’t forget about screams and laughs could be contributing energy to our power grids. BEER & BANANAS Back to the Future II (1989)
is a clever way to match supply with demand. For example, venues like sports stadiums only need large amounts of power when large amounts of people visit them. Energy generating floors would supply increased amounts of power based on increased amounts of visitors. SCREAMS & LAUGHS Monsters Inc. (2001) In the Pixar film Monsters Inc. (2001), monsters live in a world powered by human screams. A “Scarer” would enter children’s bedrooms and collect their screams for energy. As we find out later in the film, human laughs are also an effective energy source, even surpassing the power of screams. Does powering the cities of tomorrow with screams and laughs sound outlandish? It’s actually not all that far-fetched. Researchers in Japan and Germany have managed to convert sound waves into electromagnetic energy. The process involves trapping a magnetic “spin current” between metal layers. Once captured, three layers of metal pick up the sound waves where the reverse Spin Hall Effect transforms them into an electrical voltage. Imagine installing sound-to-energy converting devices in noisy city
In Back to the Future Part II (1989), Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) is just getting reoriented to life in 1985 after Back to the Future Part I when Doc Brown returns in the time traveling DeLorean. While Doc explains to Marty why they urgently need to go “back to the future” he begins rummaging through trashcans. What is Doc Brown in search of? Fuel! Doc is able to scrounge around and find a few banana peels and what’s left of a beer can. He quickly dumps them into the DeLorean’s “Mr. Fusion” fuel tank and takes off. Those simple household waste items were all that was required to power a time machine. Deriving fuel from biological waste— biowaste—is hardly a new idea. While we’ve yet to create technology capable of turning banana peels specifically into fuel, there is a close alternative. Scientists have been able to create something called cellulosic ethanol. Cellulose is a fiber found in leaves, stems, branches etc. It can be broken down by enzymes into fermentable sugars that are then heated and turned into gas that can later be converted into biofuel. While the process is easy enough to explain, it remains quite expensive, hindering it from being popular commercially. The U.S. has set a goal to make cellulosic ethanol a competitively
37
priced gas alternative and eventually displace gasoline use by 30% by the year 2030. Waste is one thing that cities never have a shortage of. Just imagine the possibilities for cities able to convert their waste into energy? UNOBTANIUM Avatar (2009) In the award-winning James Cameron film, Avatar (2009), humans explore the universe looking for valuable materials, including an ore called Unobtanium that holds the key to human space exploration and survival… and is worth 20M a kilo. “Unobtanium” is obviously a tonguein-cheek term used to describe a difficult or unobtainable resource. We have plenty of Unobtanium-like energy sources right here on Earth. Instead of journeying to distant planets, we can just look to our oceans. Scientists in Japan have been researching ways to gather gas from methane hydrates 1,000 feet below the ocean seabed. If we can reach them, these methane hydrates have the potential to generate over 100,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, each. By comparison, U.S. shale reserves contain only approximately 827 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Just harnessing a handful of these hydrates has the potential to power not just our future cities, but nations as well. As technology advances, previously unobtainable energy resources, like sub-oceanic methane hydrates, may all of a sudden be within our reach. While these examples may not be final solutions to the world’s energy crisis, they do provoke valuable discussion. ●
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m U R B A N T R A N S P O RTAT I O N
WHAT F MOVIES CAN TELL US ABOUT THE FUTURE OF URBAN TRANSPORTATION
rom Japanese bullet trains and electric sports cars, like the Tesla, to passenger flights into space on Virgin Galactic, our society has made great advances in transportation during the last 50 years. Progress is always exciting, especially for the average citizen. Unfortunately, it’s the exact opposite for city planners and administrators. They have to make tough decisions on what new transportation infrastructure needs to be built, eminent domain decisions, and what to do with out-of-date and abandoned transportation systems. What will be the future transportation needs of our society? Let’s see what kinds of transportation solutions the entertainment industry has predicted for our future. NO MORE CARS Her (2013)
By: Sarah Stokes & Jon Accarrino
Can you imagine a city without cars where everyone uses mass transit? Although you might not notice it at first, the 2013 Spike Jones film, Her, predicts just that—a car-less city. In the futuristic comedy-drama about a man who has a love affair with his phone’s operating system, the streets have become giant pedestrian sidewalks and regardless of socioeconomic status, everyone rides the subway. M AY 2 0 1 8 38
In cities with comprehensive transit systems, like Manhattan, people from all walks of life use mass transit. It’s often faster and more convenient than any other form of transportation. Even former New York City Mayor, Michael Bloomberg, routinely rode the subway to/from work each day during his 12-years in office. However, a city completely without cars isn’t without problems. For example, how would goods be delivered to stores? Or how would you move to a new apartment? COMPUTER-GUIDED CARS Demolition Man (1993) Knight Rider (1982-1986) The autonomous or self-driving car has long been a favorite prediction in both television and film. Although the reality of having cars with artificial intelligence, like KITT from the 1980’s TV series Knight Rider, talking and jumping through the air seem a little far fetched, it’s likely only a matter of time until it’s routine to see driverless vehicles on our roadways. For the better part of a decade, Google has been experimenting with self-driving cars. Their efforts began in the build-up for the 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge where 15 teams created self-driving cars to traverse
F E AT U R E
a 150-mile course in the Mojave Desert. Google has acquired members of several DARPA challenges (and they aren’t alone). DARPA challenge alumni are scattered throughout the auto industry and all of the major auto manufacturers now have self-driving test labs. As the technology began advancing beyond closed track experiments, state governments started paving the way for the autonomous vehicle industry. In 2011, Nevada’s state legislature passed bill AB 511, making it the first law in the United States to officially sanction driverless technology. Since then, three other states have followed: Florida, California, and Michigan. Google has been very forthcoming on their progress with autonomous vehicle technology. In 2014, the Google Chauffeur team had completed over 700,000 accident free autonomousdriving miles. Google’s “lidar,” or light radar, technology has the ability to watch for other vehicles, pedestrians and other road hazards. While having the capability to be driverless, Google’s first round of self-driving car prototypes had a steering wheel making it possible for human passengers to take over if desired. This is similar to Sandra Bullock’s character in the 1993 film Demolition Man who takes over driving
“In the futuristic comedydrama about a man who has a love affair with his phone’s operating system, the streets have become giant pedestrian sidewalks and regardless of socioeconomic status, everyone rides the subway.” her car during her morning commute due to boredom. Google’s engineers have since removed the steering wheel altogether. They found that expecting a human passenger to take over control of the vehicle during an emergency, when they were previously sleeping or occupied, wouldn’t work. It’s unlikely that computer-guided cars will eliminate 100% of all automobile accidents, but a driverless world would no doubt be safer and make our roadways less congested. It would also enable the elderly and blind to be more mobile and self-reliant. In addition, it would be a major relief to city and state police and emergency crews, to see the elimination of things like rubbernecking, texting while
39
driving, and drunk driving. They would all become things of the past. When will we see driverless cars become commonplace in our cities? Sebastian Thrun, project leader for Stanford’s DARPA Urban Challenge team, believes we will see self-driven cars hitting the streets by 2030. VERTICAL URBAN TRANSPORTATION Minority Report (2002) In one of the most memorable scenes from the 2002 Steven Spielberg film, Minority Report, Tom Cruise jumps between vertical lanes of autonomous cars driving down the side of a skyscraper. Will the cities of the future eventually become so crowded that we will have to use the sides of buildings for transportation? Although it might seem unlikely, it’s a transportation concept that has already been explored for the city of London. Architects Christopher Christophi and Lucas Mazarrasa’s Vertical Hyper-Speed Train Hub project would enable a major transportation hub to be added to any city footprint using a minimal amount of street space. To accomplish this, they would use the sides of specially designed skyscrapers as the passenger platforms. Train passengers would ➣
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m U R B A N T R A N S P O RTAT I O N
“a driverless world would no doubt be safer and make our roadways less congested.” ➣ ride in compartments designed to rotate as the train changes orientation similar to a Ferris wheel. The thinking behind the project is, as our cities get bigger and more complex, it will become increasingly difficult for city planners to find space for public transportation infrastructure. Christophi and Mazarrasa received an Honorable Mention for their Vertical Train Hub concept from eVolo’s 2014 Skyscraper Competition. They hope that a series of these vertical train hubs will be built around the world enabling people to travel on a hyper-speed network between cities in a matter of minutes. FLYING CARS Blade Runner (1982) The idea of the flying car has been around for decades. And in the 1960’s, the popular cartoon, The Jetsons really got people thinking about the future of personal air-based travel. Fast forward a couple decades, and director Ridley Scott took a more realistic look at the flying car. In his 1982 film Blade Runner, the streets of Los Angeles are so overcrowded that flying vehicles are the primary form of transportation. But unlike other films with flying cars, Blade Runner’s skies aren’t a wild free-for-all. In the film, drivers wear helmets and communicate with air traffic control
during their journey. Take off and landings are also computer guided. If flying cars were plausible, the pilots would likely need both human and automated guidance. With this in mind, the aerospace company Terrafugia is not only working on a flying car concept, but one that doesn’t require the operator to be a trained pilot. In theory, Terrafugia’s main control center would do everything from planning complicated flight paths to avoiding other air traffic and air space restrictions. It’s a good thing too, as a fender bender in mid-air is a lot more serious than one on the ground. But city planners shouldn’t start planning landing pads for public parking garages just yet. Terrafugia’s TF-X prototype, a 4-seat flying electric car with vertical-takeoff-and-landing (VTOL) capabilities, isn’t expected to be a reality for at least another decade. COMMERCIAL SPACE FLIGHT 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) Stanley Kubrick’s 1968 groundbreaking film, 2001: A Space Odyssey, envisions what commercial space flight might look like. In the film, a Pam Am flight to a space station is such a common occurrence, that the main character, William Sylvester, sleeps though his journey while a stewardess has to retrieve a weightless pen drifting through the cabin.
M AY 2 0 1 8 40
Billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson’s company, Virgin Galactic, wants to be the worlds first commercial space airline and is selling seats for a future trip into “space.” Virgin Galactic is still building the plane that will make the flight possible, and there’s currently no set date for the first trip, but you can make your reservation now for only $250,000. As it stands, space tourism has more in common with a rollercoaster ride than a commercial flight. A trip on SpaceShipTwo, Serial Two will only last a few minutes as the craft skims the upper atmosphere. But once intergalactic destinations become a reality, it will only be a matter of time until our airports have three main terminals: domestic, international, and intergalactic. When looking back on how much transportation has evolved during the last 100-years, there are two factors that remain consistent: faster and farther. And based on projects like the TF-X, Vertical Hyper-Speed Train Hub and SpaceShipTwo, there’s no doubt these trends will continue. From flying cars and vertical trains, to autonomous vehicles and intergalactic flight, the future of transportation is going to be a wild ride. ●
“
This book is both a tonic and a manifesto. As we enter the age of artificial intelligence, we will need more and more of the human kind, nurtured not by the sciences but by the humanities. A compelling and convincing read!”
– Anne-Marie Slaughter President and CEO of New America
A Financial Times Business Book of the Month
Financial Times and McKinsey & Company Bracken Bower Prize Finalist
THE FUZZY AND THE TECHIE Why the liberal arts will rule the digital world Scott Hartley
www.fuzzytechie.com
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m
D I P L O M AT I C LIFE
Concert for Unity Makes Case for Cultural Diplomacy Written by Jacqueline Christ
W
here politics fail to mend tensions between nations, a case can be made for cultural diplomacy—an approach in which the combination of artistic conventions bridge relations. Despite current tensions as exhibited in the media, the exhibition of such an event occurred between two of the most powerful countries in the world: Russia and the U.S. Throughout the past century, diplomacy between the countries has been riddled with controversy and friction regarding foreign affairs and policy, with little
room for recognition of shared artistic values. With no better time like the present, Russia and the U.S. have found a way to appreciate culture despite current political dissention surrounding the state of affairs.The unlikely source of common ground was found in the realm not usually employed in diplomacy: music. At the Concert for Unity, which took place at the Washington National Cathedral this past November, the collaboration between Russian and American music emulated the movement toward improving relations.
M AY 2 0 1 8 42
The Cathedral was filled to capacity. The Unity concert was sponsored and chaired by cultural diplomacy devotee Susan Carmel Lehrman, who highlighted the importance of the evening at the start: “In challenging times, it is increasingly important to maintain cultural dialogue. Without dialogue there is no hope, and without hope there is no future because only person to person dialogue can resolve issues so prevalent in this environment. The Concert for Unity showcases the importance of cultural diplomacy. We are demonstrating the strength of
D I P L O M AT I C LIFE
cultural cooperation through great artistry and wonderful music, which gives us the opportunity to elevate each other to an even greater understanding. The artistic world works cooperatively, and we are highlighting this cooperation and mutual respect.” The Unity concert enjoyed the support of a long list of Washington’s top cultural organizations, including the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, the Washington Performing Arts, the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, the American-Russian Cultural Cooperation Foundation, the Carmel Institute of Russian Culture and History, and the Sustained Dialogue Institute. The concert displayed unification found in the symphony orchestra of Russian and American music. The celebrated compositions from Russia, such as the Nutcracker Suite and the Polovtsian Dances from Prince Igor by Russian composer Aleksandr
Borodin, were played in the same orchestra that performed American composer George Gershwin’s Rhapsody in Blue. The sense of union that was housed in the harmony of joined Russian and American works was also seen in the performances by Russia’s Mariinsky orchestra performing with the National Cathedral choir, organist and carillonneur. Maestro Valery Gergiev and his orchestra of the Mariinsky Theatre in Saint Petersburg played in the house of the Washington National Cathedral, which represents a house of prayer and peace for all people. The concert also represented a new era in foreign policy relations sparked by the new Russian Ambassador to the U.S., Anatoly Antonov. At the event, Antonov said that the concert was dedicated toward unifying cultures between the U.S. and Russia. “This concert is remarkable for the fact that it gathers under the same roof many guests representing different countries and cultures. Tonight, we are united
by our passion for music. Music is a universal language that all of us understand in our souls. It has the power to bind together hearts, and to fill them with peace and hope,” said Ambassador Antonov. Case studies have indicated that Russian cultural diplomacy has been successful in mending relations in other areas, such as Europe. In a 2016 study on the effects of Russian cultural diplomacy in Europe by the University of Houston and the University of Oklahoma, researchers found that Russia was able to improve relations with several countries with “soft cultural power” in the form of literature, art, television, and music. In case studies of Russian cultural diplomacy in Ukraine and in cultural foundations throughout Europe, the study found that “understanding how soft power enabling or disabling environment can unlock better understanding of cultural and public diplomacy efforts of countries, such as Russia.” In addition, the study found that overall “countries may be quite successful in appealing to publics within specific regions of another country, in which the favorable soft power environment enables them to connect with shared cultural values.” Soft power was in full bloom at the Concert for Unity, at a time in which the lack of a definitive political stance from the U.S. government on relations with Russia opened an opportunity for progress in joining for cultural purpose. With public dissention in the political realm, the concert exemplified a step toward fostering a better unification in culture. As the future of global politics remains unclear, the certainty of the success cultural diplomacy has on countries’ relations is an essential lesson for the future. ●
“The Concert for Unity showcases the importance of cultural diplomacy. We are demonstrating the strength of cultural cooperation through great artistry and wonderful music, which gives us the opportunity to elevate each other to an even greater understanding.” 43
D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m R
E
P
O
R
T
R
E
V
I
E
W
DATA DRIVEN CITIES: 20 STORIES OF INNOVATION Report review by Lindsey Washington
T
he report on World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Cities and Urbanization analyzes the impact the Fourth Industrial Revolution will have on cities, citizens, and urban policy through the lens of data. The report provides 20 stories of technological innovation across the themes of people, economies, governance, infrastructure, and environment. Cities can use the digital revolution to start behavior-changing campaigns at low cost. For example, Cityscore, an online dashboard in Boston, improves government officials’ performance by collecting data from sensors city government to gauge how they are performing against targets in 24 areas. Second, mobile platforms, such as Bájale al Acoso, lowers harassment on public transportation by making it easier to contact authorities. Third, online portals and apps allow for citizens to easily file complaints about public officials. Finally, large data surveys can increase productivity in cities by unveiling more efficient methods. New technology can help economies adapt to shifting consumption trends by increasing efficiency and access to economic data. For example, adoption of blockchain capacities, the
technology behind cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, can increase efficiency of transactions in both the private and public sector. Also, opening up government and bank data will allow businesses to more quickly and efficiently adapt to changing economic trends and economists to more accurately predict macroeconomic trends. Finally, card and face technology can make paying for public transportation much more efficient. Governments can use data to increase its own efficiency and foster civic engagement. By providing citizens with open data, governments can promote civic participation in prioritizing budget issues. Also, online platforms with information on future and current projects increase transparency. Finally, use of geographic information systems (GIS) allows governments in countries with unsettled land to track and provide addresses for citizens in informal settlements. Governments can take advantage of technological innovation to improve infrastructure. Data culled from GIS systems in taxis allows governments to minimize congestion. And data on water usage and weather patterns allows cities to reduce waste water M AY 2 0 1 8 44
and optimize rainwater. With accessible patient information first responders can increase their efficiency by redirecting non-emergent patients to alternative healthcare sources such as primary healthcare providers. And, finally, by tracking how tourists take advantage of city attractions, governments can optimize tourist utility and improve the tourism sector. Cities can use data to make small, environmentally positive changes that have large global consequences. Case in point: the annual publication of the energy and water use data for architecture and planning firm Gensler is used to create models that analyze how local codes, market forces, and green buildings affect emission goals. Another example: treepedia uses google maps to allow residents to view the size and location of trees in their community. On a large scale, treepedia will allow citizens to work with government to create more green space. Dynamic cycling signage and mobile apps increases cyclist safety and thereby increases cycling. Increased cycling decreases automobile emissions. Finally, natural disaster data will help cities model the effect of potential disasters on infrastructure to better prepare buildings and city codes. ●
PRESENTS
THE WORLD IN 2050 A FORUM ABOUT OUR FUTURE
TO LEARN MORE VISIT:
WWW.COCREATE.WORLD
Ranked among the top ten universities in the world, this Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland is where the future begins! www.ethz.ch/en
“A good university not only imparts knowledge, it also teaches people to think.” Lino Guzzella, President – ETH Zurich
GALLUP ANALYTICS: ANALYZE THE WORLD IN ONE CLICK.
GET MORE INFORMATION ABOUT GALLUP ANALYTICS TODAY – EMAIL GALLUPANALYTICS@GALLUP.COM OR CALL +1-202-715-3131
Analytics
