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A Global Affairs Media Network A PR IL 2 0 1 7 I S PE CIAL REPORT ON TH E GLOBAL TALEN T SUM M IT
THE FUTURE OF WORK SPECIAL COLLECTION FROM THE 2017 GLOBAL TALENT SUMMIT
DIPLOMATIC COURIER MAGAZINE PRESENTS
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Contents VO L UME 1 1 I S PE CIA L R E PO R T ON TH E GLOBAL TALEN T SUM M IT I APRIL 2017
06 I Editor’s Note: Impressions From the 2017 Global Talent Summit
By: Ana C. Rold
08 I Augmented Creativity
Review by: Winona Roylance Presenter: Bob Sumner
10 I The Future of Work: The Connectivity Dimension
Review by: Winona Roylance Presenter: Vint Cerf
12 I The Future of Work: The Technology Dimension
18 I Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth
Review by: Winona Roylance
Review by: Winona Roylance
Presenters: Susan Kish; Patrick Warnking;
Presenter: Robin Hanson
Marcus Gross; Alessandro Curioni; James Hodson
14 I Creating Tomorrow’s Talent
20 I The Economic, Social and Political Dimension
Review by: Winona Roylance
Review by: Winona Roylance
Presenters: Duane Dickson; Lauren Maffeo;
Presenter: Saul Garlick
Martin Naville; Antoinette Poschung
24 I How Education 16 I Education and Can Prepare You Virtual Reality Review by: Winona Roylance For the Future
Presenter: Michael Bodekaer
Review by: Winona Roylance
Presenters: Michael Bodekaer; Saul Garlick;
Manu Kapur; Chris Luebkeman; Carol O’Donnell
Masthead Publishing house Medauras Global publisher & ceo Ana C. Rold Editorial Advisors Andrew M. Beato Sir Ian Forbes Lisa Gable Mary D. Kane Greg Lebedev Anita McBride Creative Director Christian Gilliham director of social media Alexcia Chambers un correspondent Akshan de Alwis
GTS PRESENTERS Featured in report Michael Bodekaer Vint Cerf Alessandro Curioni Duane Dickson Saul Garlick Marcus Gross Robin Hanson James Hodson Manu Kapur Susan Kish Chris Luebkeman Lauren Maffeo Martin Naville Carol O’Donnell Antoinette Poschung Bob Sumner Patrick Warnking
DC EDITORS Michael Kofman Paul Nash Report author & Contributing editor Winona Roylance senior photographers Michelle Guillermin Sebastian Rich CONTRIBUTORS David Clemens Charles Crawford Justin Goldman Joshua Huminski Sarah Jones Arun S. Nair Bailey Piazza Richard Rousseau
PUBLISHING. Diplomatic Courier magazine is produced by Medauras Global LLC, an independent private publishing firm. The magazine is printed 10 times a year and publishes a blog and online commentary weekly at www.diplomaticourier.com. PRINT. Print issues of Diplomatic Courier average 100 pages in length. Individual and back issues cost $20.00 per issue (plus S&H). Student rates are available to both part-time and full-time students with proof of school enrollment. New print issues of Diplomatic Courier are published and mailed in January, February, March, April, May, June, July, September, October, and November. Subscriptions commence with the next issue. EDITORIAL. The articles in Diplomatic Courier both in print and online represent the views of their authors and do not reflect those of the editors and the publishers. While the editors assume responsibility for the selection, the authors are responsible for the facts and interpretations of their articles. PERMISSIONS. Authors retain all copyrights to their articles. None of the articles can be reproduced without their permission and that of the publishers. For permissions please email info@medauras.com with your written request.
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ISSN. The Library of Congress has assigned: ISSN 2161-7260 (Print); ISSN 2161-7287 (Online). ISBN: 978-1-942772-01-9 (Print); 978-1-942772-02 (Online). LEGAL. Copyright ©2006-2017 Diplomatic Courier and Medauras Global. All rights reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced without written consent of the publishers. All trademarks that appear in this publication are the property of the respective owners. Any and all companies featured in this publication are contacted by Medauras Global and the Diplomatic Courier to provide advertising and/or services. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of information in this publication, however, Medauras Global and the Diplomatic Courier magazine make no warranties, express or implied in regards to the information, and disclaim all liability for any loss, damages, errors, or omissions. CONTACT. Mailing Address: Diplomatic Courier, 1660 L Street, NW, Suite 501, Washington, DC 20036, U.S. Fax: 202-659-5234. E-mail: editors@diplomaticourier.org. ART/PHOTOGRAPHY/ILLUSTRATIONS. Cover photo courtesy of ETH Zurich. All images used in the report are by ThinkStock Photos.com, BigStockPhotos.com, the Public Domain, and Wikimedia Commons (Creative Commons).
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IMPRESSIONS O FROM THE 2017 GLOBAL TALENT SUMMIT By: Ana C. Rold
ne of the largest concerns of today’s world is the future of jobs. What will the job market be like in 2050? How will technology have changed the workplace? And most importantly, will there be enough jobs for everyone? A recent Gallup world poll reveals that when asked to rank important factors in their lives, respondents said that jobs – specifically, great jobs – were at the top of the list. With the exponential growth of technology, however, many are left to wonder whether the job landscape of the future will be too dependent upon artificial intelligence and robotics to have room for a human element. And although these concerns are justified, there is still hope for a future where humans and technology work together toward a better world for all. Technology’s advancement will impact the workforce. From the printing press that enabled the Reformation to the computers of today’s technological boom, technology has been evolving at unprecedented rates. But whether or not the trajectory of these advancements will continue to APRIL 2017 06
bring abundance – or change course toward a more dystopian landscape – is still unknown. We are moving toward a fully interconnected society. Through technology, information can now flow freely and is readily almost anywhere. And with technology such as sensors, smart systems, and the Internet of things, virtual reality, machines, and the real world are becoming increasingly interconnected and interdependendent.
“Our perception of privacy, social interaction, and working conditions needs to be revised to fix the connected society that is now emerging.” –Lino Guzzella Technology is changing the job landscape. While scientific and technological advancements have brought substantial benefits thus far, the future of jobs may not be so great.
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With advances in new technology such as artificial intelligence, both blue collar and white collar jobs may be in competition with sophisticated machines and intelligent technology. However, it is also possible that the future of humans and machines may very well be one of symbiosis. There are many different perspectives on the future. While some foresee a utopian paradise enabled by efficient systems and robotics assistants, many view the advancement of technology as a gateway to a digital doomsday where robots have surpassed humans and taken over the workplace. However, the realist approach of acknowledging the dangers of technology while embracing their ability to help us may be the most beneficial of all. Creativity and critical thinking are key to improving the human element in the workforce. In order to keep up with advancing technology in the workforce, individuals need to acquire more creativity, critical thinking, and entrepreneurial skills to become indispensable assets in the age of technology.
Higher education needs to expand its curriculum.
Creativity and critical thinking skills can be learned.
In addition to teaching students about core competencies, higher education institutions should also begin to focus on extracurricular qualifications, such as critical thinking, creative thinking, and entrepreneurial action, as well as how to become an economic actor and a productive member of society.
From questioning tradition to trying new things to entering creative spaces, critical thinking and creativity can be taught not only in school, but also at home. ●
“Imagine the world you want for yourself and your loved ones: is this a dystopian world where we give in to the challenges of the technological revolution? Or is this a world of abundance, where life and work become easier, more efficient, and better? Which world would you want to live in and work hard for?” –Ana C. Rold 07
ABOUT THE HOST Ana C. Rold is the Founder and CEO of Diplomatic Courier. Since 2009 Rold has served as the Editor-in-Chief of the G7, G20, and APEC Summit Magazines. Rold teaches Comparative Politics and Political Science at Northeastern University. At Northeastern, she has also served as the Director of the Cyprus Program and co-Director of the Egypt Program for Northeastern’s Dialogue of Civilizations Initiative. Rold is a member of the National Press Club, a Board Member of the Center for Education Diplomacy, and a Member of the Council of Women’s Democracy Network in Washington, DC.
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AUGMENTED T CREATIVITY Presenter: Bob Sumner
hrough the evolution of technology, the expansion of both virtual reality and augmented reality has increased exponentially in the past decade. While virtual reality has made large strides in recent years, it is the up-and-coming augmented reality systems that will be disrupting sectors across the board. From healthcare to engineering to education and everything in between, augmented reality has the ability to shape our imaginations, upgrade our toolboxes, and revolutionize the way we approach education, entrepreneurship, and especially creativity. And with augmented reality becoming more and more common on all devices – especially smartphones – it is only a matter of time before everyone’s reality is augmented by technology. Augmented reality has a plethora of potential uses. Because augmented reality can be easily accessed on almost all camera-enabled devices, the amount of potential uses for this technology is unending. From designing a complex building and its framework to planning how to decorate your home, augmented APRIL 2017 08
reality can be used in any sector and by any person who has access to a smartphone. There is a difference between virtual reality and augmented reality. While virtual reality brings participants into a technologically synthetic environment, augmented reality does the exact opposite – it projects virtual objects into the real world by simply using a camera. Augmented reality can directly interact with physical objects in the real world. Beyond simply projecting virtual objects into real space, augmented reality now has the ability to directly interact with reality. One such example is a software system that is built in conjunction with physical coloring books in order to create a game where children can turn the characters on their coloring book pages into three-dimensional characters. Augmented reality is the perfect holistic approach to creativity. With augmented reality’s ability to alter a user’s environment in a
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nearly infinite number of ways, this technology is especially well suited to the nurturing of creativity and imagination. Through Disney Research’s partnership with the ETH game technology center, programs are being developed to holistically teach children how to be creative on their own terms.
puzzles and word searches that project 3D characters onto paper, an app that augments real world art by allowing the user to change the specifications of the piece to their liking, and a pack of cards that creates 3D musical ensembles with a variety of instruments, characters, and tunes.
Creativity is becoming less common due to passive consumer culture.
These technologies are already widely available.
Due to the ease with which entertainment and one’s environment can be consumed, children no longer have an incentive to directly interact with their environment in creative ways. Through augmented reality, however, virtual objects and games can augment a child’s direct interaction with the world around them in order to turn rudimentary tasks into creative playgrounds. There are several games and apps that have already been developed to increase creativity. Disney Research has not only created an interactive 3D coloring book, but also interactive maze
With several augmented reality apps already available for smartphones and tablets, it is only a matter of time before augmented reality becomes a staple consumer product. ●
ABOUT THE presenter
“Augmented reality allows us to combine physical interaction with the power of digital tools. When you put these two together, there’s an exponential increase in our power to create.” –Bob Sumner 09
Bob Sumner is the Associate Director of Disney Research Zurich (DRZ) and an Adjunct Professor at ETH Zurich. At DRZ, Bob leads the lab’s research in animation and games. His research group strives to bypass technical barriers in animation and game production pipelines with new algorithms that expand the designer’s creative toolbox in terms of depiction, movement, deformation, stylization, control, and efficiency. Bob received a B.S. degree in computer science from the Georgia Institute of Technology and his M.S. and Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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THE FUTURE W OF WORK: THE CONNECTIVITY DIMENSION Presenter: Vint Cerf
hile technology will undoubtedly disrupt the future of jobs in a major way, many are left to wonder exactly how this change will occur. Will our future be one of peace and progress, or will the advancement of technology overtake the workforce? Vint Cerf, vice president and chief Internet evangelist at Google, believes it is best to be hopeful, if not a little cautious. While technology may radically alter the job landscape of the near future, it is not absolutely certain that these changes will create a purely negative impact; in fact, it is more than likely that as certain jobs are lost, more will be created, leading to a future of abundant, technology-enhanced jobs. In order to make this dream a reality, however, we will need to take caution with complicated work infrastructures, societal issues, and our own human frailties.
replaced by newer jobs with more complicated skillsets. While many jobs may become irrelevant due to technology, many more jobs will be created by the same technology. Jobs related to designing, implementing, and maintaining new technologies will most likely keep the demand for skilled labor high. Similarly, Cerf predicts that jobs related to maintaining the environment that the technology inhabits as well as jobs related to communication will always be essential to the workforce.
“Education and the learning of new skills is going to be essential to keep up with new innovations.” –Vint Cerf
Work and education will change as new technologies are developed.
Technology has always destroyed old jobs and created new ones.
As the job landscape experiences drastic changes as new technologies are developed, out-of-date jobs and education will inevitably be
With the Industrial Revolution, for example, millions of jobs related to the maintenance of new machines, factory work, and new modes
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of transportation were created. Therefore, future technologies will most likely have the same effect. Our current education system will need to change as jobs change. With the traditional idea of a lifelong job slowly becoming less realistic, companies and higher education institutions need to begin focusing more on continuous learning and less on static skills. Due to both the increasing rate of change in the job market as well as an increase in human lifespan, it is crucial that workers be educated on how to continuously learn in order to keep up with innovations. We need to be cautious about the increasing fragility of job infrastructures. While the future of jobs is promising, the kind of infrastructure necessary to maintaining increasingly sophisticated systems is leading to a new avenue of potential hazards. The increasing complexity of today’s world is leading to more fragile job ecosystems.
Because many jobs depend on complex technology, their stability is becoming more and more fragile. For example, jobs that depend on the Internet would be put into jeopardy if the Internet were to ever cease working. Similarly, the workforce’s increasing interdependency on other job sectors has made this a largescale hazard that would affect workers across the board. Focus needs to be shifted from the amount of jobs to the maintenance of job infrastructure. Because of the increasing fragility of jobs based on complex systems as well as an increasing interdependency between different job sectors, it is crucial that more focus be put into maintaining and strengthening job infrastructures. ●
“Jobs that will exist five years from now don’t exist today, and a significant amount of this work will be new work requiring new skills.” –Vint Cerf 11
ABOUT THE presenter Vint Cerf is vice president and Chief Internet Evangelist for Google. He contributes to global policy development and continued spread of the Internet. Widely known as one of the “Fathers of the Internet,” Cerf is the co-designer of the TCP/IP protocols and the architecture of the Internet. Cerf is a recipient of numerous awards and commendations in connection with his work on the Internet, including the U.S. Presidential Medal of Freedom, U.S. National Medal of Technology, the Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering, the Prince of Asturias Award, the Tunisian National Medal of Science, the Japan Prize, the Charles Stark Draper award, the ACM Turing Award, Officer of the Legion d’Honneur and 29 honorary degrees.
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THE FUTURE W OF WORK: THE TECHNOLOGY DIMENSION Moderator: Susan Kish Presenters: Patrick Warnking Markus Gross Alessandro Curioni James Hodson
hile there are many who are wary of the soon-upon-us age of technology and artificial intelligence, technology companies such as Google, IBM, Disney Research, and the AI for Good Foundation foresee a beneficial future where technology and humans work together toward progress, rather than competing against each other. In order to harness the power of technology, however, it is imperative that not only tech companies, but all industries begin cultivating the talent necessary to creating and using this continuously evolving technology. The question then, is: how can we foster this talent? Where can we find this talent? And most importantly, how will this talent shape our future?
companies to promote lifelong learning in their employees to nurture current talents, create new talents, and help them understand new technology. Talent is: creative qualities and intellectual capacities. Rather than compartmentalizing talent into those who are purely creative or purely intellectual, individuals who demonstrate both traits tend to be more talented. This is due to the fact that people who are both smart and creative are able to adapt to new environments and challenges more than their counterparts, and therefore end up being the most successful. Talent is: adapting to technology.
“Talent� can be defined in many different ways. While it is universally accepted that talent is a crucial component to creating and implementing new ideas, there are many different ways in which this elusive term can be defined: Talent is: lifelong learning. While inherent aptitude is beneficial, true talent stems from constant and never ending learning. In order to become talented, then, it is vital for APRIL 2017 12
As technology progress, talent will become increasingly augmented and altered by technology. With artificial assistants, for example, researchers will no longer have to read several papers a week; instead, their artificial counterparts will be able to read a plethora of papers quickly and relay important information back to the researchers, thereby creating a more efficient system of research. However, these workers will have to continuously adapt to not only what they learn,
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Within sectors such as health care, entertainment, and R&D, technologies are being developed at unprecedented rates. Technologies such as IBM’s Watson are being developed to revolutionize healthcare. With terabytes of unstructured data available but unorganized, technologies such as Watson are being developed and implemented to extract important pieces of information from this data and bring this essential knowledge to doctors and researchers. This not only creates a large, organized data pool, but also gives doctors more time to spend with their patients. Technology is being developed that can enhance storytelling.
but also how they learn it in order to increase their talent potential.
“Talent is something that today we like to describe in very specific verticals. But talent transcends anything that a human can do that brings value to themselves and others in society.” –James Hodson Talent is: understanding and creativity. Everyone has the potential to be creative. For example, while language is constrained by finite mechanisms, the creation of words, sentences, and meanings is infinite and purely up to the creativity of the speaker. Therefore, it can be said that everyone posses creative potential. Talent is innovation. Talent can be defined as the ability to create new things and significantly increase value for other people. The future of technology is fast approaching.
With better technology comes better storytelling, and Disney Research is currently developing several different platforms that both enhance and create a better storytelling experience. This not only fosters an environment in which consumers become active participants in the story, but also allows them to create their own stories within preexisting complex universes, such as Star Wars. Technology is being developed that can create its own stories. Not only can technology enhance already existing stories, it has now almost reached the point of creating stories on its own through deep learning and machine learning technologies. This can be accomplished by a bottom-up learning process where computers will be programmed to understand story genome and craft, how characters evolve over time, and have access to large databases of stories. Smart technology and sensors are revolutionizing healthcare. From sensors to smart devices, physical technology is becoming much less evasive and much more efficient. The decreasing size of sensors, for example, enables doctors to examine patients more thoroughly as the sensor transmits information back to the doctor. Technology is revolutionizing research and development. While the average researcher can read 1-5 papers per
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week on a particular field of interest, an average of over 50 papers a day are published in each field. With advancing technology, however, researchers will soon be able to sift through papers much faster as virtual assistants will be able to help them sort through large pools of data and provide them with key information.
“You need people who are curious, creative, and really want to be innovative. This has always been the case, but today it’s becoming much more important.” –Patrick Warnking Society will need more than just STEM education. While STEM education is a necessity in today’s economy, we need to think more broadly about what traits and skills we will need as technology progresses. In addition to STEM training, traits such as leadership, creativity, and social skills will also be vital to keeping up with the technological revolution. Not everyone is built for a university system. While universities have become the staple of today’s higher education, programs such as trade school and coding academies are essential to training those with a skillset different from what is learned in a university setting. Machine learning can personalize the learning experience. Eventually, machine learning may be able to develop mathematical models of individual brains to show how each individual’s brain takes in information. This way, individuals can learn in a much more personalized manner. ● ABOUT THE presenters Alessandro Curioni is Director of IBM Research in Zurich; Markus Gross is Professor of Computer Science at ETH Zurich and Director of Disney Research in Zurich; James Hodson is the CEO of the AI for Good Foundation; Susan Kish is a Fellow at Connection Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); and, Patrick Warnking is Country Director of Google Switzerland.
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CREATING O TOMORROW’S TALENT Presenter: Saul Garlick
ne of the biggest issues facing today’s job landscape is the global skills gap. With nearly 95 million underemployed and unemployed low skilled workers unable meet the requirements of over 85 million open positions, both individuals and the economy are desperate for a solution. While this gap doesn’t appear to be shrinking anytime soon, leaders from all sectors are working hard to find potential answers to this disastrous problem. Saul Garlick and his team at Unleesh are one such organization dedicated to training potential workers, as well as providing a platform of knowledge gathering for current employees. Through Unleesh and other similar organizations’ dedication to talent building, then, it is only a matter of time before long-term solutions begin to fill the global skills gap. The way we define “people” needs to be changed. When it comes to work, employees are often viewed as commodities, inputs, machines, and things that simply do things. However, viewing workers more as humans and less as robots is beneficial to both individuals and the organizations they work for. APRIL 2017 14
Even low-skilled workers have something to offer. Whether it is the context of a local area, social connections, access to certain institutions, or a specific set of skills, all workers have something to offer. And through exposure and experiential learning, any worker can be trained to a specific task. People around the world view themselves as human, not simply as workers. While many companies may treat their employees as a means to an end, employees don’t necessarily view themselves as such. If organizations can learn to treat their workers as multifaceted humans, they will be able to not only strengthen their bond with their employees, but also potentially discover new skills and talents that could be beneficial to the company. Immersion, collaboration and knowledge sharing is essential to successful companies. Immersion is the best tool for working and learning. During a trip to rural South Africa to develop social impact projects, Garlick discovered several key insights into
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immersive learning: first, that students develop meaningful, life-long relationships with each other and locals when working as a team; second, that anywhere you go, people are looking for a decent job; and lastly, that people learn a tremendous amount when they are deeply engaged in a collaborative process.
“The companies that are going to be successful in the knowledge economy are the ones who know how to capture their proprietary knowledge and transfer that information seamlessly to their workforce.” – Saul Garlick By making company knowledge public to their employees, organizations are able to not only pass down key knowledge to future generations, but also harness the brain power of their entire organization to create new solutions and opportunities.
mobile platform that enables workers to engage with each other and their companies in an effort to continuously gather knowledge and learn new skills. In the near future, every individual will have access to a smartphone. GSMA Intelligence projects that Africa will have 720 million smartphone users by 2020, with areas such as Latin America and Asia nearing this as well. Similarly, it is estimated that smartphone broadband will cover 60% of all cellphone users by 2020. Continuous learning through continuous training. In order to increase retention of information, Unleesh provides users with bit-sized pieces of information to encourage micro learning. They also provide training and engagement of teams in simultaneous locations in order to promote similar learning experiences for all employees. Increase socialization.
Mobile-first platforms are key to building talent in companies. Due to the near-universality of smartphones, Unleesh has created a
Studies show that 80% of workforce learning happens through interactions with peers, teammates, and managers. Therefore, social
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interaction and engagement is crucial to continuous learning. Collect and leverage deep data analytics. In order to help companies best understand their employees, Unleesh runs reports to find key insights into an organization’s employees and how they can better maximize continuous learning. Unleesh is only one part of the solution to the global skills gap. In addition to talent development companies, government and nonprofit involvement is also crucial to filling the global skills gap. In order to do this, investment needs to be made in people, not automation. ●
ABOUT THE presenter Saul Garlick is an internationally respected entrepreneur and leader who had the idea for the workforce development technology platform, Unleesh, while sitting in a rural village in Africa during a program with another company he founded, ThinkImpact, where he currently serves as Chairman. Saul is a Truman Scholar, an Inc. Magazine 30 Under 30 entrepreneur. His work has been endorsed by President Nelson Mandela.
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EDUCATION W AND VIRTUAL REALITY Presenter: Michael Bodekaer
ith the rise of virtual reality, virtual simulations are becoming increasingly prominent in nearly all sectors. In science education specifically, virtual laboratories are being used to educate high school and college students in a variety of different procedures, including laboratory safety guidelines, microscopic cell and cancer research, and real world simulations. In conjunction with hardware designed to help users interact with their virtual environments – such as virtual reality goggles and glove sensors - virtual simulations are quickly approaching a reality nearly as detailed as our own. And with virtual technology’s ease of distribution and cost-effective methods, VR-centered education may provide potential solutions to many of the problems faced by today’s educational institutions.
Virtual simulation is already the preferred teaching method in many disciplines.
Virtual simulation technology provides many solutions for problems in education.
Only 41% of STEM students finish their degree.
With the help of virtual reality technology, issues related to gaining relevant work experience in a school setting and keeping students active and engaged can be addressed with VR tech.
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In flight schools around the world, flight simulators are being used in conjunction with traditional teaching methods in an effort to educate students as they gain relevant flight experience without the dangers of actually flying. In fact, over 90% of experimental comparisons favored flight simulation and training instead of just training alone. Virtual simulations can be used in almost any field. In addition to its applicability in flight schools, virtual simulations can also be used in almost any sector, including architecture, politics, and science education.
With less than half of STEM students finishing their degree, there is a need for new technology to be developed in order to keep students interested and engaged. Through virtual simulation technology, however, students not only stay constantly engaged with their
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education, but also develop a skillset that will be relevant to the workforce upon graduation. Virtual reality is easily distributable and cost-effective. Unlike traditional laboratory settings that cost time, money, and space, virtual laboratories are available to anyone with a smart device such as a smartphone, tablet, or even a simple Internet browser. Therefore, virtual simulation technology has the ability to alleviate issues with costs, time, and space that so many educational institutions experience. Virtual reality is especially effective in science education. While virtual reality is nearly universally applicable, companies like Labster are demonstrating the extremely effective power of virtual simulations in science and education. Labster has developed a fully simulated 1:1 laboratory simulation for students to explore and learn. Using both realistic settings and mathematical equations, Labster has developed a virtual simulation laboratory that mirrors
much of our own reality’s laws of probability and outcomes. Labster takes virtual simulation one step beyond reality. Though Labster can mirror reality when needed, its software also possesses the ability for users to “shrink” to the molecular level and explore simulations on the micro level. This can be applied to research related to cancer, viruses, and diseases enabled by the user’s ability to explore the body in an extremely detailed manner. There needs to be meaning and identification in these simulations for students to retain learning and stay engaged. For example, in one of Labster’s simulations, students are placed in a crime scene where they must gather evidence and analyze it in a lab to solve the mystery of the murder. It is through settings such as this that students are truly able to take an interest in the content of the simulation, and retain knowledge for much longer. Labster allows users to create their own simulations. Because of Labster’s easy customization, users can create their own simulations to test out hypotheses and communicate their research. ●
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“These simulations empower students in their belief to go out there with their skills and solve really important global challenges.” –Michael Bodekaer
ABOUT THE presenter Michael Bodekaer is a serial entrepreneur with a passion for building innovative technology companies that have the potential to change the world. Born and raised in Denmark, Michael Bodekaer’s first business venture came to life when he was just 14 years old. Fast forward to 2016 and Michael is the founder of five unique organizations with offices spanning the globe. With the ambition of leveraging cutting-edge technology to improve learning quality, Michael partnered with co-founder Dr. Mads Bonde to create Labster, a groundbreaking platform that gives students worldwide the opportunity to learn life sciences through gamified education in immersive 3D virtual worlds and laboratories.
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“While Emulations may be distinctly technological, their psychological and even emotional makeup would cause them to feel as human as the individuals they mirror.” –Robin Hanson
WORK, LOVE AND LIFE WHEN ROBOTS RULE THE EARTH Presenter: Robin Hanson
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f you were to scan a human brain and run a model with the same connections on a superfast computer, would the resulting intelligence be more human or robotic in design? Robin Hanson, author of The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life when Robots Rule the Earth, argues that while these emulations may be distinctly technological, their psychological and even emotional makeup would cause them to feel as human as the individuals they mirror. This implication of a potential future of human-technology hybrids raises several questions: First, will emulations behave more as humans or robots? And what will happen to humans in this emulation-filled future society? Even with these questions unanswered, many argue that we are undoubtedly heading towards a future of artificial intelligence, with one big exception to the mainstream conception of AI – namely, that artificial intelligence will not be new intelligence, but virtual versions of ourselves. The history of civilization contains key insights into the future of artificial intelligence. Throughout human history, progress has been characterized by steady growth rates and sudden bursts of activity where growth rates will increase dramatically APRIL 2017 18
by a factor of 50. Foragers, for example, doubled in growth every quarter of a million years; then, farmers every 10,000 years; and now, industry doubles in growth every 15 years. If this pattern were to continue, straightforward projections show that within the next century, economic growth would begin to double every month. Smart robots are our next Industrial Revolution. With increasingly complex and effective software, we are an estimated two to four centuries away from full artificial intelligence capabilities; however, the possibility of undiscovered theories of intelligence may provide a catalyst for even sooner full AI capabilities. Transitioning from one era to the next has always been a challenge. During the forager’s transition into farmers, emphasis on natural instincts was replaced by ideals like progress and culture. Within the last few hundred years, however, the issues that compelled us to become farmers have died down, and we’ve begun to reclaim some of our forager ideals, namely increased emphasis on democracy and art, and decreased emphasis on religion and war.
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Rather than a forager-like future, predictions show that emulations will behave more as farmers. Due to the social-centered construction of emulations, AI technologies will most likely behave more like farmers – with a class system, hierarchy, and order – due to their low subsistence level income and lack of basic natural instincts that drive humans.
several universal traits that all emulations share:
Emulations are the most likely form of artificial intelligence. Because it is easier to copy and paste intelligence than to build it from the ground up, our nearest form of artificial intelligence is most likely ourselves.
Emulations will work and reside within virtual reality. Because emulations reside within the virtual realm, their deference towards objects in reality such as nature and travelling will be nearly nonexistent. Instead, emulations will be able to create limitless cities and landscapes within the virtual world, and alter these areas to their liking. They will also not have to experience things like hunger, pain, disease or dying.
Emulating an already existing intelligence is easier than building a new intelligence from the ground up. If you have an old computer’s software that you want to run on a new computer, for example, you can either attempt to write new software that mimics the old software, or simply write an emulation of the old software. With the second (and more easy) option, the new computer appears to be the old computer to the new software, and the new computer can run this new software without having to understand its origins. Artificial intelligence emulations require three technologies to become a possibility. First, computers need to become cheaper, faster and more parallel; second, technology needs to be thorough enough to scan an individual human’s brain to find spatial and chemical details and connections; and third, intricate models need to be created for each kind of cell in the human brain while also detailing how the brain takes input signals, changes internal state, and makes output signals. With good enough models and scans, software can be developed to mimic the same input/output behavior as a human brain. And once this software is cheap, the age of emulations will be upon us. A world of emulations only requires a few brains. In order to create an intricate system of self-aware emulations, only 12 people would be needed out of the seven billion humans today for brain scans and models. All emulations share universal traits. Although emulations may take many different shapes and forms, there are
Emulations are files. Because emulations are, in essence, software, they have all of the capabilities that software has, plus more. First, they are “immortal”; second, they can travel at the speed of light; and third, they can be easily copied.
Emulation population expands much faster than human population. Due to emulations’ ease of copying, population can expand fast, and this extreme growth rate can consequently create an extreme increase in economic growth rates. However, this will also eventually lead to the emulations experiencing Malthusian subsistence levels much lower than human subsistence levels, as well as the inability to retire until a much later age than humans. Emulations are social units. Because of their inherent multiplicity, emulations will be able to congregate and socialize with millions of other emulations just like them. These social units can then be used for government, law, and finance, and also as a means of giving and receiving advice and knowledge from their counterparts. Emulations may begin as humans, but their software will enable them to become so much more. While an emulation’s style and characteristics will remain within the human range, these emulations will be based on our more productive counterparts – billionaires, gold medalists, Nobel Prize winners, etc. – in order to create as efficient an emulation population as possible. They will be made up of human traits such as intelligence, conscientiousness, agreeableness, cooperativeness, and extraversion, which are some of the core traits that comprise the most successful humans.
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The way an emulation views life will be different than how we view life. Unlike humans, emulations have the ability to create copies of themselves to accomplish both temporary and long-term tasks, a trait that will undoubtedly help them both in work and life. Emulations can work in both serial and parallel. Whether it be several copies at once to carry out immediate tasks or one copy at a time to look over a long-term project, emulations can use their copies in a variety of ways. While master planner emulations may oversee a whole system of their own copies and sub-copies working together on a large task, general worker emulations will create thousands of identical copies of themselves in order to accomplish different menial tasks. Emulations will retire differently than humans. Because emulations are based on humans whose ability to adapt wanes with age, emulations will also most likely become specialized in only one or two areas. And although they have an infinite lifespan, their limited career life – which will span a mere one or two centuries – will end in indefinite retirement. An emulation’s life plan is not linear. While humans generally follow a pattern of education, work, and retirement, an emulation’s ability to copy itself alters this typical life plan. For example, an emulation may split into three copies who are then educated by the original emulation, do three times the work, and then retire as three copies at a much faster rate than the original, who continues to work and create copies who then work and create copies in an endless cycle. ●
ABOUT THE presenter Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University, and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. Professor Hanson has master’s degrees in physics and philosophy from the University of Chicago, nine years’ experience in artificial intelligence research at Lockheed and N.A.S.A., a doctorate in social science from California Institute of Technology, 2800 citations, and sixty academic publications, in economics, physics, computer science, philosophy, and more. He blogs at OvercomingBias.com, and has pioneered the field of prediction markets since 1988.
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THE ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND POLITICAL DIMENSION Moderator: Martin Naville Presenters: Duane Dickson Lauren Maffeo Antoinette Poschung
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ithin the last 200 years, the world’s job market has evolved from a straightforward one-career track into a complex system of constant change and uncertainty. What kinds of jobs can we expect in 2050? What will the demand curve be for these jobs? And most importantly, how can we prepare future generations for this non-stop market? With members from the economic, social, and political dimensions working together around the clock to answer these questions, many are hopeful that a solution will found that will help us understand the future of this increasingly complex job landscape. For now, however, only one thing remains certain: while the future of jobs may be uncertain, we must prepare for any and all possibilities. Industries such as the manufacturing industry will face many challenges in the coming years. With the advancement of technology and new business models, the manufacturing industry is undergoing massive changes in all arenas, especially in production. Duane Dickson, vice chairman of Deloitte, explains how exactly this tech revolution will affect the industry: APRIL 2017 20
Production is becoming more decentralized, stackable, and scalable. As production moves away from the centralized major plants, factories will become more localized and produce materials based on immediate local needs. The business infrastructure of manufacturing companies is changing. While the core of a company may produce cash flow and outcomes, the edge is where new materials will inevitably be created for technologies such as cars, water systems, and energy systems. And while the edge may bring much uncertainty, they are an essential part to solving many of the mass problems that plague us today, such as the environment and the planet’s ecosystem. 45% of workers in the materials industry is preparing to retire. With nearly half of the materials industry getting ready to retire in the US, Japan, and Europe, many are worried about the future of manufacturing. This is due to the fact that while skills and knowledge can be passed down to a new generation, the artistry and mastery that comes with experience will have to be re-learned by the new workers.
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There are several critical skills necessary to working in the manufacturing industry. Skills such as collaboration, critical thinking, platform and systems thinking, persuasion, and technological know-how will be essential to surviving in the new manufacturing industry. Ford, for example, is now hiring more software engineers than engineers who design cars, which shows just how critical it is for workers in all sectors to be tech savvy. Companies need to change to a more consumer-driven approach. During the infancy of the car manufacturing industry, companies did not pay adequate attention to consumer needs. With other sectors becoming more consumer-centered, however, it is crucial for manufacturing-based companies to listen to the needs of their consumers and pay attention to new statistics, such as the recent trend in environmentally safe cars. We could experience overall economic inflation and sector deflation simultaneously. With the services component of the GDP at 60-65% and the goods component of the GDP resting at 30-35%, it is
possible for the services economy to inflate much faster than the goods economy. This could cause overall inflation in the economy while the manufacturing sector simultaneously experiences deflation, a problem that could cause mass unemployment and employment dislocation.
“If everyone thinks they need to work for the same big companies all of their lives, or that they need to have a big company or a big title somewhere, its going to be harder because that’s not where jobs are going to be.” –Duane Dickson New technologies and innovations will disrupt the entire economy. Although many fear that technology will ultimately destroy the future of jobs, Antoinette Porschung of Credit Suisse believes in a future of potential. Innovation has always destroyed jobs, but it has also created new jobs too. While an Oxford study predicts that over the next few decades, 47% of
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jobs in the US labor market could be eliminated, the fact that new innovations have always managed to create new jobs is encouraging. During the smartphone revolution, for example, many jobs were rendered obsolete, but many more jobs – such as software programming, app development, and smartphone technology creation – was created in its place. There needs to be a more stable worldwide banking structure. Reports from the World Economic Forum detail how more than 2 billion people in the world today do not have access to financial transaction accounts. Even more unsettling, it is estimated that 200 million micro, small, and medium businesses have unmet financial needs in excess of 3 trillion dollars. Bigger companies need to become more flexible. Although big companies may have more assets and resources, startups will ultimately be more successful in the age of technology due to their flexibility and innovation. Therefore, big companies need to improve innovation and engagement with employees to increase flexibility and keep up with
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smaller companies in this new era of technology. Programs such as Singularity University are working towards grand solutions. Singularity University is a program focused on solving today’s grand global challenges, such as problems with the ecosystem, health, and security. Students of the program work on projects designed to positively impact one billion people in ten years by insuring basic needs are met for all people, improving quality of life, and mitigating future risks.
“The rise of remote work coupled with growth in certain sectors and increased emphasis on diversity initiatives offer new ways to harness the talents of people with disabilities.” –Lauren Maffeo Emerging technologies have the ability to harness the talents of those with disabilities. With advances in technology such as machine vision, gesture control devices, and emotion recognition succeeding in major advances, people who have been
traditionally excluded from the workforce – such as those with disabilities – are benefitting from technology that not only helps them become more competitive in the workforce, but may also render their disabilities obsolete. The International Labor Organization estimates that there are 785 million working-aged individuals (aged 15-59) with disabilities. Of those 785 million, 160 million currently participate in the workforce with an estimated 350 million more individuals able to participate in the coming years as emerging technology continues to advance. The workforce participation rate of individuals with disabilities is too low. In the United States, the workforce participation rate of individuals with disabilities is at a mere 20%, with the general population rate at 69%. Conversely, the Netherlands has a workforce participation rate of 40% for individuals with disabilities while the general population has a participation rate of 80%. Therefore, it is crucial – and also entirely possible – for workforce participation rates to increase for individuals with disabilities. APRIL 2017 22
The rise of remote work and increased emphasis on diversity offers new ways to harness the abilities of people with disabilities. With remote work sectors such as customer service and freelance expected to grow, workforce participation of individuals with disabilities may be able to increase due to the remote nature of the work. There are many different kinds of disabilities. The term disability is defined as the intersection between human limitations and social barriers, which encompasses both genetic disorders and physical disabilities. Individuals with disabilities are competitive candidates for the workforce. With the help of technology, many individuals with disabilities may not only match the performance rate of their able-bodied peers, but may also be able to surpass them with potential super abilities granted by their augmented technology, such as superior strength and flexibility. ●
ABOUT THE presenters Duane Dickson is Vice Chairman of Deloitte; Lauren Maffeo is Content Editor (GetApp) of Gartner Digital Markets; Martin Naville is CEO of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce; and, Antoinette Poschung is Managing Director at Credit Suisse.
EDINBURGH | NOV. 12-14, 2017
WHERE ENTREPRENEURS AND THOUGHT-LEADERS GATHER
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HOW J EDUCATION CAN PREPARE YOU FOR THE FUTURE Moderator: Chris Luebkeman Presenters: Michael Bodekaer Saul Garlick Manu Kapur Carol O’Donnell
ust as education has been in a constant state of transformation since the dawn of learning, education will continue to transform in the new era of technology. While we don’t know what the future of education will look like in 2050 or how exactly it will change from our current system, we do know that concepts such as creativity, critical thinking, and productive failure need to be taught to student to prepare them for this future of uncertainty. With new and emerging technologies such as virtual simulations and emulations, however, educational institutions are being given opportunities to guide this educational revolution through new methods of teaching and learning. Ultimately, with the help of this technology, educators will be able to teach students the necessary skills needed to tackle a future of uncertainty. Productive failure is the key to success. By inducing failure in students in controlled safe environments, teachers are able to prepare students for future failures, how to successfully navigate past them, and APRIL 2017 24
ultimately avoid them altogether when it matters most.
“You learn by failing forward.” –Saul Garlick Productive failure induces deep learning. Studies show that after a student has failed at a particular task, skills such as creative problem solving and conceptual learning kick in that increases understanding of the overall task as well as enhances the student’s critical thinking skills. Productive failure is not a new teaching method – it is a culture. Rather than directly teaching students how to fail, productive failure focuses on creating a safe environment where students can understand failure initially in order to reduce the chance of failure in the real world later. Virtual simulations are being developed to teach productive failure. Unlike the perils of real world failure, virtual simulations create an environment that is both safe and induces fast failure for faster learning.
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Education faces several challenges moving forward. With the advent of technology and new theories of learning, it is becoming increasingly apparent that current modes of education are in dire need of change. Education needs to prepare students for an uncertain future. Despite the fact that 30 years ago it was easier to pick a career from a few set paths, the students of today’s world are now subject to a job landscape that changes almost daily. Therefore, it is crucial that students be taught skills such as problem solving, critical thinking, communication and collaboration in order to prepare them for the unknown future. Education needs to be switched from application mode to design mode. In today’s education system, students are taught to apply their knowledge immediately to classroom problems as soon as they have a grasp of the material. However, education needs to focus more on a design mode where students are constantly engaged in what they are learning.
Schools need to teach skills, not content. With technologies such as the Internet, students now have more access to information than ever before. Therefore, it is crucial for teaching methods to switch from teaching students what to learn and instead teach them how to learn and think. Teachers need to facilitate, not just educate. Escuela Nueva, a foundation in Colombia, focuses on personalized and collaborative learning by placing students in a Montessori-style setting and allowing them to learn from each other through learning guides with real life example problems and potential solutions. Technology will lead to more personalized forms learning. The biggest opportunity technology will afford humans is capturing human experiences. While skills such as collaboration, critical thinking, and problem solving are inherently human, education systems seem to continuously fail at teaching these skills. With emerging technologies, however, machines will be able to observe
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data sets from both the general population as well as individuals, thereby creating a personalized learning experience. Emerging technology will be able to learn how you learn. With machines becoming increasingly closer to understanding human patterns to learning, there will soon be technology that can monitor and explain individual learning methods and thereby know how to induce moments of insight with more frequency. Technology will not overtake education, but simply augment it. While technology will undoubtedly revolutionize education, learning will most likely remain hands-on and human-centered with technology being used as an augmentation device instead a replacement for education as so many fear. Machine learning and big data will allow us to create theories of the particular. With current models of psychology defining learning and cognition in terms of averages – the average individual, average
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“What machine learning and big data will allow us to do is to create theories of the particular.” –Manu Kapur population, etc. – machine learning will become so personalized that learning and cognition will become a theory of the particular.
accepting failure, and not being afraid to question things – you won’t last long in the world of work.
You can prepare for the future starting today. While the future is uncertain, you can start preparing for it by following these simple tasks:
Travel widely and live around the world. Nothing gives you an education like travelling the world, and the world needs you just as much as you need it.
Gain a learner mindset. Make sure to focus on what you’re interested in and allocate time for constant learning.
Never lose your inner child. Qualities such as inventiveness, creativity, play, and learning new things are all things we have naturally as children. Interestingly, these are the same skills that you will need as an adult to be successful. ●
Question belief systems. As high school students enter college, they begin to solidify their beliefs in ideals and how the world works However, these ideals are culturallybound and are constraints on potential opportunities, so make sure to constantly challenge your own belief systems. Pay attention to soft skills. While hard skills may land you a job, if you don’t have the right soft skills – collaboration, communication,
ABOUT THE presenters Michael Bodekaer is Founder of Labster; Saul Garlick is Founder and CEO of Unleesh; Manu Kapur is Professor of Learning Sciences and Higher Education at ETH Zurich; Chris Luebkeman is Arup Fellow and Global Director of Arup Foresight; and, Carol O’Donnell is Director of the Smithsonian Science Education Center at the Smithsonian Institution.
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