ing momentum of vaccine rollouts, both nationally and internationally, raising the prospects of the easing of border restrictions. The most cited reasons for caution were the prospect of rising interest rates and the possibility of further lockdowns resulting from a re-emergence of COVID-19 in the community. It is likely that the latest survey results will show optimism at or close to the peak of confidence in this cycle as monetary policy becomes less accommodative. With positive property market fundamentals in play though, a moderation in optimism, as opposed to a sharp correction, is the most likely scenario. However, we still expect to see high levels of net positive confidence ahead.
March 2021, the June 2021 quarter’s rating of 62.5% is the fourth highest on record and significantly ahead of the long-term average of 35.2%. Results of surveys over the last year illustrate the rapid change in sentiment surrounding the residential market. A net negative score of -15% in the June 2020 survey reflected initial concerns that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic could result in a significant fall in values. A majority of respondents in nine of the 13 regions surveyed expected values to fall over the year
ahead while values were expected to rise in just two. Concerns, however, dissipated quickly as value growth accelerated in the second half of the year, supported by a lower interest rate environment. By December 2020 the outlook for values was heavily skewed towards growth in all regions. Sentiment buoyed by market’s strong performance The positive sentiment across the country was again reflected in the June 2021 survey. The regions generating the highest net
positive scores were Hamilton at 69.2% and Hawkes Bay at 67.1%. Both have edged ahead of Tauranga / Mt Maunganui which topped the rankings in both the December 2020 and March 2021 surveys. Confidence has also remained high across the major centres with Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch all generating net positive scores of between 52% and 58% in the latest survey. Regulatory changes moderate views... Changes in government and Reserve Bank policies
Residential market confidence remains at elevated levels Confidence in the outlook for residential property market pricing uplifts across the country remained at elevated levels in the second quarter of 2021, according to results from Colliers’ latest residential property market outlook survey. While down from the record high net positive score of 72.8% recorded in
National residential median price outlook 80% Net Percent
New Zealand Overall
Average
60% 40% 20% Jun-21
Mar-21
Dec-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Dec-19
Sep-19
Jun-19
Mar-19
Dec-18
Sep-18
Jun-18
Mar-18
Dec-17
Sep-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
-20%
Sep-16
0% Jun-16
RESIDENTIAL
August - September 2021
Source: Colliers Research Note: Net percentage of respondents who expect the median price to increase versus decrease in the next 12 months
62 propertyandbuild.com
Reasons for optimism and caution evolving
