August - September 2021 and to faster deployment of wind and solar PV. Another 14% is achieved with greater use of electricity in transport, in heating for buildings and in providing lower-temperature heat in industry. Greater recycling in steel, aluminum and plastics
accounts for a 2% drop in emissions, greater building efficiency 0.5%, and growth of bioenergy for sustainable aviation fuel and shipping another 2%. The following milestones will need to be achieved by 2030 to be on track to reach net-zero by mid-century:
• 505GW of new wind power per year • 455GW of solar per year • 245GWh of batteries per year • 35 million new EVs on the road each year • 18% of all aviation fuel becomes sutainable • 18 million heat pumps deployed each year • 70% of all coal-fired power is retired
ENERGY
Hydrogen Hydrogen must scale rapidly from its current very small base, but the size of its role varies widely by scenario. New demand for hydrogen in 2050 is just 190 million metric tons in the Gray Scenario, compared with 1,318 million tons in the Green Scenario, where it increases to around 22% of total final energy consumption, compared with less than 0.002% today. Carbon capture and storage technologies These can be applied across a variety of processes that emit carbon dioxide, including power generation and aluminum, steel and cement production. Widespread use of these technologies captures over 174 gigatons of carbon dioxide over the outlook to 2050, in the Gray scenario.
80 infrastructurenews.co.nz
Nuclear In the Red Scenario, which prioritizes nuclear power, there is 7,080GW of nuclear capacity by 2050. This is about 19-times the nuclear power capacity installed globally today. Just under half of that is used to generate electricity in the end-use economy, where smaller, more modular reactors complement renewables. The rest is made up of dedicated nuclear plants that power electrolyzers producing so-called ‘red hydrogen’. Fossil fuels Demand for fossil fuels sees a significant decline over the next 30 years in all scenarios. The Green and Red Scenarios show demand for coal, oil and gas for combustion drop to zero by 2050, replaced by renewables, electricity and hydrogen. Fossil fuels fare better in the Gray Scenario, where carbon capture and storage offer a way forward for coal in power generation and industry, and reverses some of the decline seen in gas from 2030. However, it does little to support oil, which is predominantly used in transport, where CCS can barely play a role.
