Automotive Megatrends Magazine - Q2 2018 by Automotive World

AUTOMOTIVE MEGATRENDS

MAGAZINE

2018

WITHOUT

SMART MOBILITY, FORGET

SMART CITIES, SAYS FORD

Informing the decisions of automotive industry stakeholders since 1992. http://automotiveworld.com

Welcome... ...to Q2 2018 Megatrends – the smart cities issue

What if every city’s public transportation worked perfectly, on time, all the time? What if there were no congestion, just free-flowing traffic delivering people to their destination in comfort and style? …if all transportation were emissionfree? …if parking were banished to the annals of history? Sounds like utopia, right? It also sounds like the only way of combatting the growing threat of global gridlock. Cities need to get smart – and so too does mobility. Without smart mobility, city planners are wasting their time: ‘If cities can’t move, they can’t grow’, warns Ford’s City Solutions Director.

In this issue of Megatrends, we look at OEM and supplier initiatives to tackle the smart city challenge. We also talk to some of the world’s biggest suppliers about the auto industry of the future, and reﬂect on the key takeaways from recent Megatrends events in Detroit and California.

Martin Kahl, Editor www.automotivemegatrends.com

Welcome

Automotive Megatrends Magazine ISSN: 2053 776X Publisher: Automotive Megatrends Ltd 1-3 Washington Buildings Stanwell Road, Penarth CF64 2AD, UK www.automotivemegatrends.com T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 support@automotivemegatrends.com Registered number: 08000516 VAT number: GB 171 5423 23 Managing Director: Gareth Davies Editor: Martin Kahl Contributors: Celeste Dooley Freddie Holmes Megan Lampinen Thomas Dauner Xavier Boucherat Production: Anmol Mothy

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Contents

Ford on why smart mobility is essential for smart cities

New mobility tech changes the route to profitable growth

Smart cities on the rise as planners prepare for rapid urbanisation

Connectivity underpins the auto industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future

Where AR you going? Ambitious targets for nextgen navigation

The Industry 4.0 cookbook: uncertainty and ambition in equal measure?

21st century winter testing â&#x20AC;&#x201C; itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s about far more than tyres

32 40

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Contents

Autonomous cars will turn parking into an unpleasant memory

The modern dashboard must be a digital fortress, urge experts

OEMs need modular platform strategies for software

Artificial intelligence in smart cities – what’s the link?

Auto industry makes the CASE for the MaaS market car

From roadside assistance to digital assistants

Rapid turnaround: prototyping developments make RP indispensable

The shape of water: how soil and fluid simulation can save OEMs millions

The powertrain of the future is BEV (and HEV, and PHEV, and FCEV…)

Freight – there’s an app for that

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Cover feature

Ford on why smart mobility is essential for smart cities Smart mobility and smart cities are intrinsically linked – each beneﬁts the other, and Ford is working on both. Martin Kahl speaks to the ‘Ford Mobility Company’ about the challenges and opportunities presented by rapid urbanisation

n 2011, Ford Motor Company

Chairman Bill Ford gave a ground-

breaking TED Talk. Where once he

had been concerned about not selling

enough cars and trucks, he said, now

he was concerned about what might happen if all he did was sell more cars

and trucks, and the global light vehicle parc

doubled,

trebled

even

quadrupled. His fear, he revealed, was

that by mid-century, we could be

facing global gridlock.

For Ford, the solution is 'smart'; but

building smart cars is not enough, said

the great-grandson of Henry Ford,

whose ambition, a century earlier, was

to build cars “for the great multitude”;

we also need smart roads, smart

parking and smart transportation systems, in a future of zero emissions,

but with the freedom to move around

that we have today.

That TED Talk signalled a major

strategic shift at Ford. Fast forward to

2016, when Ford announced the creation of Ford Smart Mobility, a

subsidiary dedicated to developing and

commercialising mobility services and

Acquired by Ford in 2016, Chariot is a core component of Ford's Smart Mobility strategy 16

investing in mobility-related ventures.

The Chairman of the division was

announced as Jim Hackett, who now happens to be the Chief Executive of

the Dearborn-headquartered OEM.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

A guaranteed seat, Wi-Fi, device charging...and all for less than the price of a bus ride - could Ford’s Chariot present a serious challenge to public transportation? Ford’s senior leadership has for a few years

now

been

discussing

the

company’s transition into the ‘Ford

Mobility Company’, and the notion of

mobility runs top-down, not only in

thinking about traditional vehicle mobility,

alternative

but

also

mobility

providing

urban

environments. “Our CEO has talked

movement in cities but in ways that

projected to grow to US$94.2bn by

don’t contribute to the signiﬁcant

2026, representing a compound annual

around air quality and congestion.”

Global gridlock

challenges that cities already have Smart mobility and smart cities are

intrinsically linked – each beneﬁts the

other, for the greater good. And with

lucrative opportunities in both areas,

growth rate of 9.9%."

By 2050, around two thirds of the

world’s population will live in a city.

According to the UN, the top ten

about Ford becoming the most

it’s hardly surprising that Ford is

largest cities by population in 2015

says Sarah-Jayne Williams, who was

has identiﬁed 355 smart city projects

people. By 2025, that ten-city total is

Smart Mobility in Europe.

which 70 are in smart transportation

16.1% increase over ten years; and by

“Mobility means diﬀerent things to

There are 25 smart transportation

about how we get from A to B,”

and 11 in Asia-Paciﬁc. Smart city

trusted mobility brand in the world,”

appointed in 2017 as Director for

diﬀerent people but, essentially, it’s

Williams explains. “Henry Ford’s vision

was that freedom of movement

working on both. Navigant Research in 221 cities around the world, of

and

multi-sector

projects.

projects in North America, 24 in Europe

programs present a growing market opportunity, says Sam Abuelsamid,

had a combined total of 223 million

expected to rise to 259 million, a

2035, the increase will be 35.9% over

2015, taking the total to 303 million

people. Interestingly, the top three

cities will be the same, although

Tokyo will slip from first place to

second by 2035, overtaken by Delhi,

Sernior Analyst at Navigant. “Navigant

with Shanghai remaining in third.

take the environment of cities, that’s

market for smart city solutions and

To put that growth into a European

continue to provide freedom of

2017. Smart city market revenue is

population will grow by 2 million

drives human progress. In many ways, that’s still true today. But if you

no longer true. We want to be able to

www.automotivemegatrends.com

Research

estimates

the

global

services was worth US$40.1bn in

context,

2040,

London’s

Cover feature

Cover feature people, to more than 10 million. That

equates to about 6 million extra

believes

ride-hailing

alone

will

generate up to US$1.2trn in revenue

daily journeys – clearly unsustainable

by 2026. While Navigant believes the

not something that will be solved by

billion rides annually will be hailed in

under existing infrastructure, and

overwhelming majority of the 160

automatically, based on geofencing

technology, into EV mode when it goes

into the low emission zone. That way

we can meet city requirements and

our commercial vehicle customer

London’s commuters switching to

the Asia-Paciﬁc region, its forecast

congestion is still congestion.

rides in Europe and North America are

The Transit Custom PHEV trial is

enthusiasm for Ford to become part

Moving stuﬀ

20 prototype vehicles in use by major

problem. In Europe, in line with the

One of the ﬁrst moves by Ford’s

autonomous vehicles: autonomous

Hence Bill Ford’s concern, and his of the solution, rather than part of the

shows that the revenue generated by far from insigniﬁcant.

requirements as well.”

already under way in London, with fleets; a similar trial, using ten

prototypes, will begin in Valencia,

Spain later in 2018. The Transit

OEM’s commitment to become the

European Smart Mobility team was

Ford has opened a new oﬃce in the

Van trial in London. With a steadily

range extending 1.0-litre EcoBoost

Europe implementing low and ultra-

GoRide and Chariot – Ford’s people carriers

world’s ‘most trusted mobility brand’,

Olympic Park in Stratford, London, dedicated to smart mobility, with a

the launch of the Urban Electriﬁed growing number of cities across

team of experts operating under a

low emissions zones, commercial

mobility solutions. As well as the

operate in cities, cleanly, and without

solutions also come with a lucrative

European remit to investigate future

moral

opportunity,

new

mobility

ﬁnancial incentive for any stakeholder

the range anxiety still associated with

PHEV

has

electric

range of 50km (31 miles), as well as a

gasoline engine.

Where the Urban Electriﬁed Van

vehicle,

moves goods, Ford’s Chariot ride-

electric van in the trial can switch

Originally a San Francisco start-up, the

pure

battery

electric

explains Williams. “The plug-in hybrid

hailing

activity

moves

people.

that gets it right; Navigant Research

vehicles still need to be able to

Custom

Ford's Transit Custom PHEV trial began in London with 20 prototype vehicles operated by big-fleet customers. A further ten will go into service in the Spanish city of Valencia in the second half of 2018 18

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Cover feature

Smart mobility is foundational for smart cities. If cities can’t move, they won't grow, says Jessica Robinson, Director of City Solutions within Ford Smart Mobility shared mobility shuttle service was

acquired by Ford Smart Mobility in 2016. In the US, Chariot operates in San Francisco, New York, Seattle,

Columbus and Austin, and in early

2018,

London

became

its

ﬁrst

overseas city. The Ford-branded 14-

seater vehicles operate along ﬁxed routes, stopping if hailed by a Chariot

customer using the Chariot app. A seat in a Chariot is guaranteed, as is

Wi-Fi, USB sockets for device charging,

and a notably low single ride fare, paid

software

company,

develops

the

software for Ford’s global connected car

operating that service? The counter

to that is, of course: does it matter?

platform, which it refers to as its

Some vehicle manufacturers have

and GoRide – the non-emergency

pool their various activities, including

Ford in North America – are powered by

Free2Move. Ford has chosen for now

Transportation Mobility Cloud. Chariot

medical transport (NEMT) service run by Autonomic’s technology.

The brand versus the brand experience

customer uses a Chariot, there is

barely a hint that they are being moved by Ford.

ride in London, it costs less than the

world of future mobility, yet there

US where there was more publicity

additional Charter and Enterprise

terms of monetising mobility, and

services enable Ford to add further

value for Chariot customers, and maximise use of the Chariot vehicles.

In early 2018, Ford announced the

acquisition of two smart mobility startups, TransLoc and Autonomic. Durham,

North Carolina-based TransLoc develops

apps for connecting with public transit

networks. Autonomic, a Palo Alto-based

www.automotivemegatrends.com

manufacturers

to run separate activities. When a

“Obviously, there’s a Ford badge on

price of a single bus journey. The

vehicle

Volkswagen Group’s Moia, and PSA’s

are

via the app. At £1.70 (US$2.25) per

All

established sub-brands in which to

considering their options for the

remains little in the way of clarity in

the front of the vehicle but, even in the [about

Chariot]

because

was

acquired by Ford, many of the

even less in terms of defining it.

customers wouldn’t know that it’s

might incorporate anything from zero

branding is Chariot. And it’s interesting,

ride-hailing and ride-sharing to smart

over brand, particularly as we evolve

Depending on who you ask, ‘mobility’

emission propulsion to automation,

Ford-owned,”

says

Williams.

“The

because I think experience will triumph

public transportation. How, then,

into an AV world.”

mobility activities? If people no

Asked whether this could present an

ride, how will they know who is

leadership in smart mobility, Williams

does an OEM go about branding its

longer own the vehicles in which they

opportunity for Ford to show its

Cover feature nods. “Yes, I think that’s a good point

and I think it is part of the journey that

we are on as well, as a big company

looking to try new things. We’re known for cars, and one of the strategies that

gives big companies more freedom to

Collaborate and listen

true globally.”

existing

Those

smart cities strategy is to tackle challenges,

such

congestion. But stakeholders quickly

need to move into being an active part

couple of years in, and the business

Ford is keen to be involved. “We’re not

model is beginning to prove itself. I

think it’s good to challenge it and ask whether we will make it a more active

of a smart city’s development, and a specialist traﬃc-planning consulting

ﬁrm and can’t bring the depth of

expertise that some companies can.

part of the Ford branding so that we

But we are certainly becoming part of

become the most trusted mobility

increasing part of it. I think we’ve got

can deliver on our objective to

that conversation and want to be an

brand in the world.

good experiences to add to that and,

“Over time, I think we will begin to see

rather than part of the problem.”

certainly

Deﬁning mobility might be a challenge,

more branded experiences, but it will be

interspersed

with

experiments and trials. And even what

we’re doing in London at the moment

with Chariot is a trial – we have an initial

12-month licence, but it is a trial, and it’s

hopefully, can be part of the solution

European

cities

have

very diﬀerent societal structures, and

very diﬀerent existing infrastructure, from

those

with

well-established

transportation such as London to

others

with

underground

networks, or limited overground rail

networks, and diﬀerent densities of

taxi populations.

Smart cities, living streets

As well as developing the products and

business models that operate within

the city of tomorrow, Ford is active in

but deﬁning a typical city is nigh on

the discussions about the development

not it,” says Williams. “There are 99

discussions from a very simple angle: “It

impossible. “And London is deﬁnitely

cities in Europe with a population of

about learning how to do things and

more than 500,000. And they are

mobility in cities.”

density, existing infrastructure and

understanding our role in the future of

typical European city, but that’s also

Clearly, the ﬁrst step in developing a

experiment is to operate it under a

diﬀerent brand. With Chariot, we’re a

political landscape. There is no single

hugely diverse in terms of population

of such cities. And it approaches those

starts with the people that live in the

cities that we call home,” says Jessica

Robinson, Director of City Solutions

within Ford Smart Mobility. “We believe

ﬁrmly that freedom of movement

drives human progress outside of any one technology solution within the

mobility space. You’ve seen us talk

recently about the idea of designing

smart vehicles for a smart world. In our

City Solutions team, we partner with

some of the major stakeholders in

cities, including transit agencies, other

large enterprises, start-ups and citizens

to explore and understand new

approaches to ideas, technology and

data. We’re after greater access for

everyone in those cities.” Collaboration

essential,

says

Robinson, echoing comments by SarahJayne Williams. “This is not something

we’re going to solve on our own. The

GoRide - Ford's non-emergency medical transit (NEMT) service - uses technology supplied by Autonomic, the global connected car platform software supplier acquired by Ford in 2018 20

challenge is just too big. Our team goes

out and has individual conversations

with those people at cities who are

responsible

for

transportation.

number of groups have come together

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Ford CEO Jim Hackett outlined his vision of a future smart city at CES 2018. As Sarah-Jayne Williams, Ford's Director of Smart Mobility in Europe is keen to point out, "It really helps that the former head of Smart Mobility is now the CEO of the company!” internationally to look at what it means

to be a smart city, including private

sector companies like Ford, public

sector organisations, planners and communities.” Ford is one of the

infrastructure, the connectivity layer

says Robinson. “We’re focused on

“There is a transportation drag and lack

future, smart cities, aren’t built solely

and digital services,” says Robinson.

of eﬃciency in the systems that we

have today. Whether it’s a smart vehicle

partner companies involved in the

or a smart public transit system, we

Bloomberg Philanthropies and the

those things together in the smart cities

convention of city mayors organised by

Aspen Institute, to consider the role

and impact of autonomous vehicles.

With her expertise in smart city

making sure cities today, and in the

around automobiles, but they take into account the people who live there.”

have an opportunity to bring all of

Looking ahead, Robinson says that

of the future.”

advances

Ford, notes Robinson, looks at the

although there will be transformational in

autonomous

vehicle

technology and the application of artiﬁcial intelligence, the greatest

concept of a smart city from the

progress in the development of smart

co-founders of Detroit Mobility Lab,

quality of life, safety, time and

other aspects of life in the mobility

one of the world’s foremost future

OEM, she adds, has “matured from

initiatives, Robinson is also one of the established to help Detroit “become

mobility ecosystems”; at the end of May 2018, Detroit Mobility Lab announced a

strategic

initiative

create

the

Michigan Mobility Institute (MMI), which will focus on seeking out and educating

new talent within artiﬁcial intelligence,

robotics, cyber security “and other

ﬁelds that will be vital to making the

City of Detroit a global centre for future

mobility”. The aim is for Detroit Mobility

Lab to expand its team and form a

perspective of “intended outcome,

convenience, and access to jobs.” The

looking at technology deployment to

looking at some of those intended

outcomes. At Ford, we are looking at

the idea of a living street – the street,

mobility and housing costs. There will important aspect of a city as an

communities, and so it’s important to

certain capacity for vehicles, but the

streets themselves really should be

designed for people.”

A crucial step in deﬁning the role of the

“We’re looking at delivering a broad

move away from designing cities

www.automotivemegatrends.com

in the context of health issues,

remember that roads must have a

public and private sector.

of the transportation system – vehicles,

other factors. It will be mobility plus

connectivity and infrastructure, mobility be an increased recognition that

A new way of thinking

range of mobility services across layers

debate. “I think we will start to see

conversations about mobility include

road and sidewalk are the soul of our

steering committee for the MMI made

up of local and global leaders from the

cities will come from the inclusion of

mobility is an underlying and critically economically vibrant place. That will

lay the groundwork for all the new self-driving technology that we will undoubtedly see.”

And, as Sarah-Jayne Williams is keen to

underline, there is support from the

car in the city of tomorrow will be the

most senior levels of the company’s

around cars, to designing cars around

former head of Smart Mobility is now

cities. But is this happening? “It has to!”

leadership: “It really helps that the

the CEO of the company!”

Cover feature

Monetising mobility

New mobility tech changes the route to proﬁtable growth The sources of profitability will change dramatically over the next decade and beyond. Preparation for the new market landscape must begin now, writes Thomas Dauner, Senior Partner at The Boston Consulting Group

dramatic shift in automotive

proﬁt pools is underway. The convergence of three trends –

Consulting Group (BCG) found that, in

the most likely scenario, the share of

vehicle electriﬁcation, autonomous

industry proﬁts generated by new

profoundly change the automotive

only 1% last year to 17% in 2025 and

driving, and shared mobility – will industry over the next ten to 15 years.

A recent study by The Boston

mobility technology would grow from 40% in 2035.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Monetising mobility

Exhibit 1: The Mobility Industry Will Continue to Grow, But Profit Pools Will Shift to New Technology Revenues ($trillions) 4.7

5.3

Profits, $billion

5.8

2.9% per year

380

336

303 17%

26%

40%

99%

83%

74%

60%

2017

2025

2030

2035

226 1%

Emerging profit pools (includes (includes AV and BEV component suppliers, BEV car sales, data and connectivity, and on-demand mobility) Classic profit pools (includes classic component supply, ICE car sales, financing, and aftermarket) Source : BCG analysis AV=autonomous vehicles; BEV=battery -powered electric vehicles; ICE=internal combustion engine

As profit pools shift, incumbent OEMs

BCG estimates that global annual

reach 40% in 2035. By then, traditional

until the mid-2020s and then stall

components,

period, the global annual volume of

electric

could grow to more than 10 million

only 60% of industry proﬁts, down from

will find their competitive positions

sales volume for new cars will grow

market players, including suppliers,

through 2035. During the same

under pressure by newly empowered

on-demand platforms, and tech giants, as well as cities that play an

vehicles sold for on-demand services

Although the changes will occur

units. Indeed, by 2035, almost one in

groundwork today in order to thrive

vehicles shared on demand, primarily

increasingly active role in mobility.

gradually, incumbents must lay the in a market that will undergo

3.7

ﬁve passenger miles will be driven in

proﬁt pools – including traditional sales

internal

combustion engine (ICE) and hybridvehicles,

ﬁnancing,

and

aftermarket business – will represent

99% in 2017. Among the emerging

proﬁt pools, on-demand mobility is

expected to be the largest, reaching

autonomous electric cars. By that

US$76bn in 2035 (see Exhibit 2).

be battery-powered electric vehicles

A review of the factors underlying the

autonomous vehicles (AVs).

market is developing:

technology increasingly dominates

Even with these disruptions, industry

New car sales. Economic growth

New sources of proﬁtability emerge

However, as AV and BEV adoption

volume will remain relatively ﬂat from

expand the industry’s boundaries, the

promoted by the continued growth

fundamental changes. By exploring

time, 30% of new cars sold globally will

development, they can define a

(BEVs) and more than 20% will be fully

scenarios

for

the

market’s

strategy for capturing the lion’s share

of the profits as new mobility the industry.

At ﬁrst, incumbents will enjoy a

deceptively smooth ride. New car

proﬁts will grow at a rate of about 3%

per year through 2035 (see Exhibit 1).

increases

and

new

technologies

sales volume will grow substantially

sources of proﬁtability will change. In

volume growth in China and other

development that BCG views as most

through 2025, driven largely by

the

scenario

for

the

industry’s

forecast provides insight into how the

could add more than 17 million units

to the new car market by 2035, but 2025 onward. Sales volume will be

(albeit at a slower rate) of China and other emerging markets. The higher

utilisation

self-driving

developing markets. Thereafter, as

likely, the share of industry proﬁts

compared

with

breakthroughs in autonomous driving

including components for AVs and

volume,

despite

on-demand mobility services, new car

connectivity services, and on-demand

volume growth in China slows and enable cheaper and more convenient sales growth will stall.

www.automotivemegatrends.com

represented by emerging proﬁt pools – BEVs,

sales

BEVs,

data

and

mobility oﬀerings – is projected to

privately

taxis

owned

vehicles will negatively impact sales

replacement

cycle.

shorter

Additionally,

revenues will be boosted by higher

prices for vehicles.

Monetising mobility

Ex Exhibit 2: Emerging Profit Pools Will Grow Dramatically Profit pools ($billions)

Classic profit pools Classic components

New car sales (ICE & hybrids)

Emerging profit pools

Financing

Aftermarket

AV and BEV components

New car sales (BEV)

Data & Connectivity

On-demand mobility

70 (+3)

60 (-19)

33 (+9)

66 (+12)

26 (+25)

21 (+21)

28 (+27)

76 (+76)

2017

2035

Source: BCG analysis AV=autonomous vehicles; BEV=battery -powered electric vehicles; ICE=internal combustion engine

Component supply. OEMs’ share of

the component value per vehicle is

expected to fall to 15% in 2030, just

over half of what it was in 2015 (27%). BCG forecasts that new AV and BEV

components, primarily manufactured by suppliers, will represent 50% of the

component value of autonomous EVs.

Today, the ICE powertrain is the

Classic

Emerging

ﬂeets establish their own maintenance

sharing services. Indeed, instead of

commercial ﬂeet operators today.

hail an autonomous vehicle wherever

prepare for these developments by

will be more economical for 30% of

workshops,

similar

those

Even so, OEMs have suﬃcient time to devising ways to leverage the higher

complexity of AV and BEV components to capture value in the aftermarket.

component for which OEMs create the

Data

appears that most OEMs will not

tremendous growth in revenues

components for AVs and BEVs in-

forecasts that revenues will increase

most value. However, it currently

produce battery cells and other new

and

adoption

connectivity. AVs

will

The

enable

related to connectivity services. BCG

house. In that scenario, suppliers of

from US$4bn in 2017 to US$157bn in

winners, while traditional suppliers of

generated by in-car advertisements

the new components would be the big ICE-related components would face a

stagnant market. Aftermarket.

OEMs’

high-margin

aftermarket business will be hurt by

the adoption of BEVs, which need nearly 60% less maintenance per year

2035. Connectivity revenues will be

and

recommendations

(such

currently available in some taxi

fleets);

digitally-enabled

services,

feature unlocks, and subscriptions

customer survey data, BCG forecasts

that approximately half of those for

whom it will be economical to make

the switch will do so.

A “double whammy’” investment challenge

To unlock the promised value of mobility technology, industry players will

need

invest

than

US$900bn in new growth areas by

2030 and more than US$2.4trn by 2035. Key areas for investment

an OEM sells vehicle-related data to

infrastructure, and self-driving taxi

to-business data brokerage (in which

the vehicles on the road by 2035, the

On-demand mobility. Self-driving

negative impact will occur slowly.

taxis will substantially reduce the cost

suﬀer as operators of on-demand

with today’s ride-hailing and car-

Europe’s population to use self-driving

taxis than to purchase a car. Based on

include

third parties).

OEMs’ aftermarket business will also

and whenever they need it. In 2030, it

(such as GM’s OnStar); and business-

than ICE vehicles. However, because

BEVs will comprise only about 10% of

using a personal car, many people will

of on-demand mobility, compared

technology,

battery

production facilities, EV charging ﬂeets. For example, by 2035, the

industry will need to build 57 battery production facilities equivalent to Tesla’s new ‘Gigafactory’, which has enough capacity to build batteries for

BEVs produced today. The industry

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Monetising mobility

Executives should not leave it to the next generation of leaders to prepare their companies for the new market landscape. Now is the time to get ready

will also need to invest US$130bn to

build more than 38 million additional public charging stations by 2035. OEMs

face

double-whammy

challenge of needing to make their

share of the investments in growth

digital attackers will enter the race to

the model is essential to assess the

cities will emerge as the gatekeepers

as battery cost, energy prices, and

oﬀer vehicle-centred services. And

impact of changes to variables such

to local services.

adoption rates for AVs and BEVs.

Likely winners will be those market

Armed

participants that are well positioned

with

in-depth

understanding of the scenarios, a

areas at the same time that margins

company considers how to best

BCG’s analysis found that OEMs are

electronics and software suppliers);

capture a large share of the emerging

in their core business are declining.

future

growth

technology

providers

areas:

(including

likely to see their return on sales

battery cell makers; and on-demand

compared with 2017. Among the

Potential

drop by 1 percentage point in 2025 factors

driving

the

platform providers and operators. losers

could

vehicles;

identifying the most important assets

BEVs and hybrid vehicles and the

incumbent OEMs without a strong

cost of compliance with emission

regulations. period,

the

Over

ratio

the of

same

capital

expenditures to revenue will climb by

1 percentage point, as OEMs address the

imperative

growth areas.

fund

future

A transformed market structure

As a result of these developments,

for

ICE

position in AV and BEV technology;

and

dealerships

and

service

stations that cannot expand their service offerings.

Scenario modelling is the starting point

By defining and modelling different

scenarios, a company can explore

how the industry and its profit pools

will develop. The modelling should

OEMs will ﬁnd their market position

consider the full range of scenarios,

next 15 years. Suppliers, especially

aggressive. The development of

challenged on multiple fronts over the

makers of AV and BEV components,

will gain greater inﬂuence. Ride-

hailing companies and tech giants will

battle to capture the customer

interface and data. Start-ups and

www.automotivemegatrends.com

establishing strategic priorities with

respect to products and services.

incumbent suppliers that focus on components

proﬁt pools. It decides where to play,

include

contraction

will be the lower profitability of

leverage its current strengths to

Next, it focuses on how to win,

and competitive diﬀerentiators and

the potential partners and acquisition targets. Finally, it determines how to

execute, setting out the required

initiatives in an action plan for pursuing the opportunities.

Most important, incumbents must

avoid having a false sense of security about the market’s development. It is

true that industry revenues will

continue to grow and that emerging proﬁt pools will expand slowly at ﬁrst.

However, it is equally true that the

from conservative to most likely to

sources of proﬁtability will change

specific growth areas within each

years. Executives should not leave it to

profit pool should also be evaluated

in detail, including the potential

opportunities within each role in the

value chain. The ability to customize

dramatically in the next ten to 15

the next generation of leaders to

prepare their companies for the new

market landscape. Now is the time to

get ready.

Smart cities on the rise as planners prepare for rapid urbanisation It may seem an as yet poorly deďŹ ned concept, but the smart city is slowly becoming a reality, and various municipalities are already prepping their streets for a world where connectivity is synonymous with mobility. By Freddie Holmes

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

ÂŠ TomTom

Smart city planning

Smart city planning t is not only vehicles that are

an accepted norm both within and

the term ‘smart city’ may seem a

Not only that, but the process is seen

getting smart – cities are too. While

somewhat broad characterisation for

the wealth of changes going on behind the scenes, deﬁning the criteria for a smart city can be tricky.

However, understanding what a smart

outside of the automotive industry.

as a snowballing effort to add new

technologies within the vehicle as

starts to feel more tangible.

London is competing with Paris for

With this in mind, the smart city

automotive stakeholders share many

Monroy, Strategic Marketing Manager

safety, reduced air pollution and

greater access to aﬀordable and eﬃcient means of mobility.

The majority of the earth’s population

“Cities are making these changes to

remain competitive, because with

globalisation, more and more cities are

“Smart city is a very broad and vague

of the same common goals: improved

incentive to make the city smart.

opposed to a sudden transformation.

city is all about becomes easier when considering that municipalities and

that there is also an economic

term,” commented Louis Debatte-

at TomTom, “but I think it describes

competing at an international level;

ﬁnancial institutions at the moment,

for instance,” he observed. “We understand the movement to smart cities

eﬀort

leverage

technology in order to be more

the fact that cities are trying to

competitive and eﬃcient.”

However, with various players at the

leverage new technologies in order to more

efficient.

That

means

providing better services at lower

costs, because we’re talking about

table, it can take time for these visions

to gel. “Today, in many cases, the

is likely to live in, or near a city in future,

taxpayers’ money.”

interests of the cities and the interests

not wish to own a car in future. Thus,

Large cities are faced with a number

explained. “Our vision at TomTom is to

“

from rapid urban growth. According

and many of those new residents may there is a mutual interest in oﬀering

shared mobility services to supplement

existing public transport links. Then

there is the next iteration of the bus

of challenges, many of which stem

see if we can play a role in aligning

to the United Nations, urban areas

the communication can ﬂow.”

will house more than 60% of people

lane – the rapid transit system – which

globally

lanes

through increased private vehicle

in future may run alongside dedicated for

autonomous

vehicles.

2030.

people

usually equates to more cars, either

According to projections from Navigant

ownership or an expansion of taxi

ﬂeet will be used as part of an

customers,

Research, 21% of the global vehicle automated mobility service by 2035.

of individual drivers conﬂict,” he those interests by making sure that

Up and comers

As a mapping and navigation expert,

TomTom is able to collect data from

new

consenting drivers to help city planers

pressure on road networks and thus

leverages data from around half a

services

accommodate

well

greater

manage traﬃc. Today, the company

Smart city is a very broad and vague term, but I think it describes the fact that cities are trying to leverage new technologies in order to be more eﬃcient

Keeping pace with technology

Just as the phrase ‘connected car’

may have raised a few eyebrows

initially, the concept has now become

www.automotivemegatrends.com

increased

congestion

and

air

pollution. Then there are other

billion devices globally in real time. All

of this data is anonymised, validated,

factors such as zero emissions

and then merged through a process

meeting these challenges may be

stored, and oﬀers a valuable insight

delivery services and parking. While

tough, Debatte-Monroy highlighted

called ‘fusion’. This data is then

into how a city ticks.

“

Smart city planning

Vehicle autonomy is classified according to the SAE scale of automation; there are no such guidelines for smart cities

In many cases, the interests of the cities and the interests of individual drivers conﬂict. Our vision at TomTom is to see if we can play a role in aligning those interests by making sure that the communication can ﬂow

“A big use case we have with smart

time.” This can help city planners to

agreement

where people go, at what speed, and

comes to updating infrastructure, for

transportation programme’.

quite interested in that historical

TomTom announced that it had

Indeed, cities around the world are

“They use it for things like network

which

smart city solutions to varying degrees.

understand how well the network is

city’s road network. Earlier that

cities is basically Big Data on traffic – when – and a number of cities are

traffic data,” said Debatte-Monroy. performance

measurements

behaving, and how it evolves over

make informed decisions when it example. ‘joined

forces’

would

November with

2016,

Amsterdam,

leverage

TomTom

traffic data to better manage the year, TomTom had reached an

with

the

city

Moscow to implement an ‘intelligent

openly implementing, or developing,

Barcelona, Spain has been described as a ‘blessing’ for smart city projects by

SEAT, and in Saudi Arabia, the capital

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Smart city planning

A number of cities use historical traﬃc data for things like network performance measurements to understand how well the network is behaving, and how it evolves over time

city, Riyadh, has been working with

Cisco on smart parking and lighting. In

December 2015, the US Department of

Transportation (DOT) backed a Smart

City Challenge that would see 78 cities

propose plans for an intelligent

transportation system, the winner of

which would receive a US$40m federal

grant. Columbus, Ohio won the challenge

with

its

multi-faceted

proposal that included the creation of

a data platform to underpin the city’s

smart city eﬀorts, a connected vehicle

environment and a connected trip planning and payment system.

But according to Debatte-Monroy,

Singapore has become ‘the role model’ for smart cities globally. “Amazing stuﬀ

is happening there, and they are working on several interesting things around

traﬃc

management,”

noted. Singapore has also become

a hotbed for autonomous driving testing. For example, nuTonomy – the

autonomous driving software start-up acquired by Delphi (now Aptiv) in

October 2017 – has already run a driverless taxi pilot in the city.

“We’re also working with most of the

large cities in Europe in one way or the

the city of Madrid in Spain.” Maybe

will

emerging market. “A city to watch

the ﬂick of a switch, it will be a gradual

and coming smart cities is in an

“

Rather than turning a smart city on at

would deﬁnitely be Pune in India; the

process over the coming decades.

and plans to invest billions of rupees

“The shift to smart cities will entail

Indian government has a major policy in smart city projects,” he explained.

small changes that are happening

“There’s also been a contest where

around us every day, and we will not

Smart City Projects.”

become part of our everyday life,”

various cities were asked to submit

necessarily notice them because they

A city to watch would deﬁnitely be Pune in India. The Indian government has a major policy and plans to invest billions of rupees in smart city projects

A gradual shift Unlike autonomous vehicles, which can

be ranked via the Society of Automotive

Engineers (SAE) scale of automation,

Frankfurt and Düsseldorf, and with

smart city. In fact, many of the

www.automotivemegatrends.com

advances

unnoticed by the average citizen.

other,” continued Debatte-Monroy.

“We work a lot in Germany with

technological

most interestingly, one of the key up

there are no speciﬁc milestones for a

concluded

Debatte-Monroy.

“Will

there be a ‘day one’ where we notice

the diﬀerence? Probably not. These little

things

that

are

being

implemented day after day will be

making our lives easier without us necessarily realising it.”

Connected Car Detroit 2018

Connectivity underpins the auto industry’s future Soon all cars will be connected, oﬀering owners and users a multitude of convenience and eﬃciency-related services, as well as on-demand infotainment. But that’s in the future – right now, OEMs need to work out how to get there, and how to make it pay. Martin Kahl heard auto industry experts discuss all of this and more at Connected Car Detroit FROM ‘CONNECTED CAR’ TO ‘CAR’ To date, the car has been a standalone

break in service. Less connected car,

usage-based insurance to ADAS-related

‘connected car’, read ‘car’. Once an

always online – why should that stop for

your car pay automatically at car parks,

aspect of daily life. No longer. For internet

black

spot,

the

car

increasingly just another place to sit and

connected

customer.

We're

the sake of a tedious commute? A well-

developed connectivity strategy oﬀers

surf. OEMs and suppliers want car users

potentially endless possibilities, noted

home to car and back again without a

Emerging Services – Connectivity; from

to be able to move seamlessly from

Mike Tinskey, Ford’s Director of Global

THE vOiCE OF THE CONSUMER Distraction-free infotainment, a great

to connect all its vehicles between

for OEMs to get right. However, get it

2020 and 2025.” Amazon’s Alexa is

of GM’s Connected Car division.

technology, and Curic noted that the

discussion around the connected car is one that could be relatively short-lived.

home experiences. With Alexa on-

going to happen. Every OEM is going

Linking all of these attributes is voice,

years, all cars will be connected, the

at the event. “The connected car is just

vehicle; this may be all that customers

right they must, insisted Kurt Hoppe

booths. And given that within just a few

one use-case for connected voice.

Amazon Alexa in his keynote address

want, but it’s a major set of challenges

fast food drive-throughs and tool

said Ned Curic, Vice President of

user experience, and a connection – a

bond even – between driver and

safety improvements, and even having

known for its home infotainment

smart home is currently the number

Now he wants to connect the car and board, natural voice will address those

aforementioned challenges - whilst of course also ensuring a continuation of

the Amazon service that in the US

alone already accounts for 44 cents in every dollar spent online.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Photo credit: Jeﬀrey Charles Photography, Inc.

Connected Car Detroit 2018

USER ExPERiENCE iS KEy It may be true that in future, all OEMs

experience will spend up to 141%

connected

Dealerware’s Russ Lemmer. And a

will connect their cars, but if that car

experience

more than one who does not, said

inadequate, customers – whether

lack of trust in the technology is

make

“Without trust, there is no brand

private buyers or mobility ﬂeets – will an

immediate

association

between technology and brand. That

experience can impact future sales; a

reﬂected

brand

perception:

success,” warned Kai Adolphs of

Kantar TNS. “The two most important

personalisation and contextualisation,”

said Olaf Gietelink of TomTom; and if

the user experience is limited to getting

into

and

out

eﬀectively

anonymous vehicle, with no discernible

or memorable traits, then OEMs might

as well prepare to build white goods,

was the damning conclusion of Mayer

considerations for connectivity are

Brown’s Marjorie Loeb.

A picture of a snapping turtle opened

designed from the inside out. The

change in culture, agreed Geoﬀrey

Software; heavily armoured they may

of cars may be transforming the auto

customer who has a good brand

CybER SECURiTy – CHANGE iN CUlTURE NEEDED a talk by Chuck Brokish of Green Hills

be, but they have a weakness, namely

a soft underbelly. Cyber security cannot

aﬀord

industry’s

snapping

the

turtle,

auto

cautioned. A vehicle needs to be

heavily

fortiﬁed,

with

security

increasingly software-oriented nature

industry, as Ozgur Tohumcu, CEO of Tantalum suggested, but Brokish’s concern

that

“A

well-funded

attacker could get past a ﬁrewall in a

matter

minutes

and

bypass

intrusion detection easily.” We need a

GET READy FOR MAAS TRANSPORTATiON Whether Transport as a Service (TaaS)

or Mobility as a Service (MaaS), OEMs

must prepare for an automotive

concurred: “Security needs to be built-

from

connectivity

the

beginning,

must

begin

and the

architecture and design of a vehicle.”

the automotive industry is undergoing

better use of their time. But none of

Puvvala, CEO of Savari, advocated a

from costly ownership models, and

services: “I’d like to pay for a monthly

to own them – and later without even

www.automotivemegatrends.com

development.” Derek Prentice of FEV

needing to drive them – will enable

a paradigm shift, as it moves from

Netﬂix-style subscription for mobility

cyber security is not an afterthought,

but part of the fabric of product

service to be able to take any transport

service I like.” Allaa Hilal of IMS agreed:

industry future in which people use,

rather than buy their vehicles. Ravi

Wood of TowerSec Harman, “so that

vehicle users to save money and make that

will

possible

without

ownership to usership. Moving away

connectivity, emphasised TomTom’s

being able to use cars without having

foundation of all the new services in

Gietelink:

“Connectivity

the

the automotive industry.”

Next-gen navigation

Where AR you going? Ambitious targets for next-gen navigation Safety, simplicity and convenience are at the heart of the latest developments in navigation technology, writes Megan lampinen

ehicle navigation and mapping

the accuracy of the data it uses. The

rapidly. The past few years have

inaccurate or even non-existent. UN

technology

are

advancing

seen tremendous progress in terms of

location referencing, communication protocols, user interface and even the

trouble is that this data can be vague,

ﬁgures suggest that 75% of countries

don't have a reliable addressing system. Even in those that do,

Speciﬁcally,

the

company

has

developed an algorithm that breaks

down every location on the planet into

3-metre by 3-metre squares and

assigns each square its own unique

three-word marker. "We thought

travellers frequently ﬁnd themselves

about using latitude and longitude, but

single large city may have ten streets

like it," explained what3words Co-

also position the industry that much

code can cover a wide area. This isn't

emergence of lucrative new business

models. These developments not only

make

driving

safer

and

convenient for drivers today, but they closer to an autonomous future.

location precision

misled by their navigation system. A with the same name and a single post

good for frustrated travellers, but it's particularly

challenging

for

booming e-commerce industry.

the

It's easy to type an address into a

The founder of London start-up

accurate is that address? The quality

with the shortcomings of the current

navigation system, but just how

of any navigation system hinges on

it was too awkward and people didn't

founder and Chief Executive Chris

Sheldrick. "We decided to simplify the

entry of latitude and longitude by

making it as easy as possible, and we

did that by naming each square with

three words."

what3words became so frustrated

The approach introduces greater

systems that he designed a new one.

process in a way that could prove

precision into the whole navigation

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Next-gen navigation What three words would get you home?

“

We decided to simplify the entry of latitude and longitude by making it as easy as possible, and we did that by naming each square with three words - Chris Sheldrick, what3words

pivotal to the arrival of self-driving

or a three-word address. "It should

Service robustness and reliability are

term, it means greater convenience

including voice, touch, handwriting

recognition can become a problem

conﬁrm

gesture control," elaborated Nuance's

would be highly frustrating for users if

vehicles in the future. In the near-

for drivers. Daimler is the ﬁrst OEM to address

plans

system

navigation

introduce

solution

Mercedes-Benz models.

the

standard certain

input modalities

support diﬀerent input modalities, and new modalities such as gaze or Fatima

Vital,

Senior

Marketing Automotive. One

the

biggest

technical

Cloud-only

speech

when network connectivity is poor. "It they could not enter their destination by voice in areas of poor connectivity such as underground parking garages,

rural areas, or dense cities like

London," Vital pointed out. Nuance,

Nuance has been working with

recognition. In the car, Nuance’s

hybrid, embedded-Cloud solution,

voice control and digital assistants. An

technology removes environmental

in-vehicle digital assistant needs to support multiple ways of entering a

destination by providing a street

address, a POI, a combination of both

www.automotivemegatrends.com

from

pivotal.

Nuance's

what3words, lending its expertise in

challenges

Director,

also

perspective is the accuracy of the

speech

signal

enhancement

he explained, always recommends a

combining the ﬂexibility of Cloud

speech

and

the

reliability

noise to better identify the speaker.

embedded speech recognition, and

from other passengers in the car

user experience”, no matter where

That helps to ensure that utterances

don’t interfere with the recognition.

ensuring users always have “a great they are.

Next-gen navigation The Mercedes MBUX infotainment system, developed in conjunction with Harman, uses AR for improved driver communication - and in the future, information could be projected onto the windscreen

ÂŠ Daimler

â&#x20AC;&#x153;

AR changes the way drivers will use navigation in the future. It points out real world destinations, or what POI is behind the walls of a house. It also guides the driver very accurately in inner-city driving - Gerhard Neussle, Harman

location-based advertising

working with automotive advertising

platform PureCars to capitalise on

Some early movers are tapping navigation

and

user

experience

strategies to provide targeted invehicle marketing. Apps like Waze

are making a notable contribution on

this

front.

Waze

combines

customer search data with location information to provide targeted

recommendations and offers. The navigation

specialist

has

been

advertising potential.

treatment in terms of the ranking,

provided the user remains within the

parameters of 'nearby'.

"Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s great to serve relevant ads based

Augmented reality

Chief Executive Sam Mylrea. If a user

Navigation isn't just becoming more

on location," commented PureCars

goes into Waze and searches for

convenient, it's also becoming safer

look at where that consumer is and

augmented

tyres, for example, the system will

thanks

the

incorporation

reality

(AR)

visuals.

pull up the most relevant places that

Harman and Mercedes-Benz have

advertising will receive preferential

Mercedes-Benz

sell tyres in a nearby area. Paid

brought AR navigation into the new User

Experience

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Next-gen navigation

The digital maps required for automated driving must be much more detailed and precise than navigation maps, down to the number of lanes, the curvature of the road, etc - Martin Schleicher, Elektrobit

(MBUX) infotainment system to more

car passes a theatre, AR can provide

piece of the wider puzzle that also

a video image of the surroundings,

Towards autonomy

LiDAR.

navigation information. For example,

Elektrobit is also preparing for an

inputs," Schleicher told Megatrends.

clearly and intuitively communicate

actions to drivers. A camera provides which is then augmented with helpful

information on show times.

autonomous future and is readying the

touchscreen of the display.

systems. "The digital maps required for

directly

onto

the

"AR changes the way drivers will use

navigation in the future," asserted

Gerhard

Neussle,

Senior

Vice

President, Operations Daimler in

Harman’s Connected Car Division. "It

necessary navigation and mapping

automated driving must be much more

detailed and precise than navigation

maps, down to the number of lanes,

the curvature of the road, etc," noted

Martin Schleicher, Head of Business

used

for

showing

evolves

AR it

but

will

projected onto the windscreen. "In just a couple of years the car's windscreen

will

become

transparent display and offer new

opportunities," Neussle predicted. As cars become increasingly autonomous

and drivers monitor the navigation

system less frequently, AR could be used to display various types of

information.

"The

system

could

inform vehicle occupants about all sorts

information

from

the

environment or their destination and

Before

the

industry

achieves

widespread Level 5 autonomy, many

cars may offer limited self-driving functionality such as on motorways. In this case, the navigation system

will need to be able to detect when

entering

and

exiting

the

information in a map, you may know

the driver."

technology

accuracy of the camera and the radar

standard navigation as we still rely on

house. It also guides the driver very At the moment, the in-car display is

another

motorway, and hence when to allow

these things are not terribly relevant for

accurately in inner-city driving."

become

Management at Elektrobit. "Many of

points out real world destinations, or

what POI is behind the walls of a

"Maps

element to increase conﬁdence in the

arrows or house numbers could be superimposed

includes a mix of cameras, radar and

Maps for autonomous vehicles (AVs)

the self-driving option. "From the

that the highway will end five miles

ahead. The car's sensors cannot

identify that information and there is

also need to be up-to-date in real-

no way that a camera can look that

lane closure, it needs to be reﬂected

this case, the navigation system

time. If there is road construction or a

in the map. To keep these maps up-to-

date,

makes

sense

use

information from the vehicles on the

road. "We need to enable cars to collect

information

they

ﬁnd

something. If there is a front camera

in the car that can identifychanges on the road ahead, then the map needs to be updated so that it can send the

right information to the Cloud. That

allows the map provider to update the map accordingly," he elaborated.

far ahead," warned Schleicher. In

would need to alert to driver in time

to re-engage so he can safely resume control.

These are areas on which Elektrobit is working together with OEM partners.

In parallel, map providers are working

on collecting and enhancing the map

data they already have with the sort of

detailed information required for

automated driving. The wide variety of

developments taking place with these and other players should ensure that,

POIs along the way," he suggested. All

Maps alone won't be enough to

in the race to autonomy, safety,

the real world. For example, as the

operation, but they will provide a

lost along the way.

this information can be mapped to

www.automotivemegatrends.com

ensure

safe

and

eﬀective

convenience and proﬁtability are not

Factory of the future

The Industry 4.0 cookbook: uncertainty and ambition in equal measure? Automotive manufacturing experts are bullish on the potential beneﬁts of Industry 4.0, yet they still struggle to outline exactly how, or when, this transition will take place. By Freddie Holmes

longside

many

other

buzzwords today, ‘Industry 4.0’

term

has become a widely accepted for

the

manufacturing.

digitalisation

However,

whilst

various tiers of the automotive

industry are vocal on the benefits of

a ‘smart factory’, it is difficult to

quantify exactly what these benefits

will be for a large supplier or OEM at this point. At the same time, it is also

unclear as to when Industry 4.0 will

become a reality.

That was the sentiment shared by many industry figures during a panel

discussion

Bosch

Connected

World 2018, a conference hosted by the German Tier 1 supplier in Berlin.

Some cautioned that it is vital to

develop

defined

understanding of how Industry 4.0 will affect automotive manufacturing in order to realise its full range

of benefits.

“Industry 4.0 is not a deﬁned process,

It's currently easier to find a company that claims to be Industry 4.0 ready than it is to find a company that can explain what that means 36

or a deﬁned product,” remarked Rolf

Najork, President of the Executive

Board at Bosch Rexroth. “There are individual solutions that make sense,

and many diﬀerent use cases. But why

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Factory of the future should a customer invest billions to

ensure a plant is 4.0 ready? This needs

to be clear.”

In January 2018, Bosch formed a dedicated Connected Industry business unit to focus on Industry 4.0 activities and link the trend to Bosch’s various other business areas

The head of Daimler’s Industry 4.0 –

Smart Operations unit, Günter Kruth,

noted that Industry 4.0 has been

interpreted as a marketing ploy by some, but highlighted some basic

principles to the concept. “This digital transformation is about a dramatic

change in demand. We not only have more

products,

but

also

diﬀerentiated products,” he explained.

“In terms of the potential, it is a

dedicated

most it simply boils down to increased

components at scale, but also adapt to

Rexroth’s Najork explained that even

new small-batch vehicle. Factories will

this increased complexity.” Pushed

further on his views, he conceded

that “there is no single number

that

outlines

the

beneﬁts

manufacturing digitalisation.”

Jörg Gnamm, Partner and Director

at Bain & Company, underlined that there is still widespread uncertainty as

what

Industry

4.0

can

oﬀer

manufacturers in quantitative terms.

“What do we mean when we talk about

manufacturing 4.0? When I talk to ten people, I get 12 answers,” he remarked. “It varies between companies.”

increased eﬃciency Despite such uncertainty, the industry

January

2018,

Bosch

Connected

formed

Industry

is taking this trend seriously. In

“

question of eﬃciency and coping with

Why should a customer invest billions to ensure a plant is 4.0 ready? This needs to be clear - Rolf Najork, President of the Executive Board, Bosch Rexroth

business unit to focus on Industry 4.0

manufacturing eﬃciency, but Bosch

various other business areas. By 2020,

this is diﬃcult to quantify. “If I gave

become

4.0 to grow annual sales by more than

wrong

in part by new advances in 3D printing.

activities and link the trend to Bosch’s

the supplier aims to ‘exploit’ Industry a billion euros.

In qualitative terms, the underlying

beneﬁts of Industry 4.0 are a little

more distinct: increased productivity,

better capability to react to changes in demand and a faster time to market

at a lower overall cost. Indeed, for

www.automotivemegatrends.com

you a number, it would probably be anyway,”

said,

but

certain ‘custom’ products such as a ‘highly

variable’

with

changeover times of minutes, helped

suggested “a double-digit percentage

Conductive charging could even be

a reasonable target as a result of

power certain machines and robots.

improvement in eﬃciency” would be Industry 4.0.

As for the factories themselves, Najork

suggested that they will not only be

able

process

vehicles

and

provided by the factory ﬂoor itself to He also suggested that as part of this

highly

ﬂexible

approach

manufacturing, there would only be six

ﬁxed parts to the smart factory: four

Factory of the future

“

Daimler defines Industry 4.0 as the comprehensive digitalisation of all processes, and says it marks the next stage in the industrial revolution

There is no single number that outlines the beneﬁts of manufacturing digitalisation - Günter Kruth, Industry 4.0 – Smart Operations, Daimler

walls, the ceiling and the ﬂoor.

a greater role, not only in the

would enable many new connected

dynamic,” said Najork. “But these

welding robotics but also through

puts it, this would create a ‘wireless’

“Everything

else

ﬂexible

and

operation

machines

such

trends are quite contradictory: high

predictive maintenance. This will allow

observed. “In automotive, customers

and tear calculations to see how long

automation, but with high ﬂexibility,” he

work with an eight to ten-year

investment period, whereas the tech

industry works in months or years.”

There will also be greater reliance on transport robots known as automated

guided vehicles (AGVs) – which are

already used by many factories today

to transport parts around the factory. Artiﬁcial intelligence (AI) will also play

devices to run in harmony. As Najork factory. “This will be the biggest

machines to carry out their own wear

hurdle - we should not underestimate

they will last between services or to

More automation, fewer people?

provide early warning of a shutdown.

“If an operation comes to a standstill,

that is a problem,” aﬃrmed Najork. “We need predictive tools to make

sure that does not happen.”

that,” he admitted.

There are concerns that Industry 4.0 may also have wider societal impacts,

with greater use of automation and

Bosch Rexroth is currently working on

robotics

be provided within factories, which

factory floor. However, the dystopian

a 5G internal connectivity service to

eating

employment

opportunities for humans on the

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Factory of the future view of a robot-run factory is unlikely.

Instead, there will simply be a shift

of competencies.

Assembly line operations are currently carried out by people or by robots. At Mercedes-Benz, the vision is for for human-robot collaboration, with humans in ultimate control

“We need to take people with us when

we move to automation, and educate

them about the impact and how it will work,” advised Daimler’s Kruth. He

also

pointed

the

invaluable

ﬂexibility of a human operator, which

cannot be aﬀected by a glitch in

process will get more complex, but

nobody is more ﬂexible than our

people,” he continued. “At the shop

ﬂoor level, the manufacturing line is

becoming more complex and we have

to give our employees the tools to

better handle that.” This should entail

a mixture of both new skills and ‘tweaks’ to existing ones, he suggested.

Others agreed that while certain

human roles could be phased out in

the factory, they will be replaced by new opportunities elsewhere. “We will see a

loss of jobs due to automation and robots, but also an increase in new ones,” remarked Bosch’s Widmer.

Jon Sobel, Chief Executive of Californian

manufacturing analytics ﬁrm, Sight

Machine agreed, noting that “when

bank tellers were replaced by ATMs,

that opened up new opportunities

elsewhere in the banking business.”

There’s no cookbook for Industry 4.0

“

software or a drop in power. “People

are the focus. The manufacturing

There’s no cookbook to provide steps in the move toward Industry 4.0 - Jon Sobel, Chief Executive of Californian manufacturing analytics firm, Sight Machine

to bring in innovation,” explained

Sobel. “There’s no cookbook to provide steps in the move toward Industry 4.0,

and investments need to bring beneﬁts

very quickly,” he said. “It can’t take ten years to see the transformation.”

One of the primary hurdles in rolling

but the best practices for Industry 4.0

automotive sphere is encouraging

strong leadership to knock down those

towards

he continued. “Companies need to

Strategies and Investment Planning at

out

Industry

4.0

across

the

change at a corporate level. Speakers at

the

event

urged

corporate

from a corporate level would include

walls and adopt these technologies,”

As for the current state of progress Industry

4.0,

Thorsten

Widmer, Vice President, Manufacturing

executives to embrace connected

think of the ability to change as a skill.”

with passenger cars and heavy trucks.

Najork noted that if corporations are to

‘Industry 3.5’. While there may not be a

needs to be as painless as possible,

elements and steps to achieve Industry

factories in the way that they have

“The biggest challenge is not the

technology, it is organisational change

and the approach for a large company

www.automotivemegatrends.com

embrace Industry 4.0, the transition

and bring swift returns. “You can’t have

a big lead time with manufacturing,

Bosch,

suggested

that

some

automotive plants are already at

cookbook that outlines the necessary

4.0, the recipe clearly contains two key ingredients: ambition, and uncertainty.

Testing, testing, testing

21st century winter testing – it’s about far more than tyres Continental’s winter testing facility in Arvidsjaur, just short of the Arctic Circle, is playing a crucial role in helping the supplier make important developments in safety and autonomy. By xavier boucherat

emperatures

Arvidsjaur,

sun appears for as little as three hours

low as -40C (-40F) in the winter

(population 4,500), the surrounding

Northern Sweden, can drop as

months. Located a few hundred kilometres shy of the Arctic Circle, the

a day, and outside of the small town white

wilderness

like a desert.

stretches

out

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Testing, testing, testing

“

Not everywhere is like California. A car must be able to recognise these extreme circumstances every time - Volker Mornhinweg, Head of Mercedes-Benz Vans

In short, it is not the sort of place

Scandinavian markets where heavy

you’d expect to see a Mustang, and

snow and thick ice are regular features,

February, an orange blur moves

as Germany, where conditions are

yet on a nearby runway in midat speed into a slalom course,

ducking between cones. Things go to plan, until a test engineer in the car

flicks a switch, de-activating the

next-generation electronic stability

controls (ESC). The vehicle over-

and Middle-European markets such seasonal and less harsh. Over 2,000 sets of tyres are tested each winter.

One of those currently undergoing

examination is the seventh generation

of VikingContact tyres for extreme

steers into a turn, and safely skids

condition markets. On a purpose-

The runway is a part of Continental’s

fitted with the new tyres are being

out across the snow.

built track cut into the snow, a small

modern ESC. Meanwhile, on a nearby frozen lake, a new spiked tyre concept

being

measured

against existing technology. The new design houses the spike in a rubber

body, as opposed to an aluminium

one, which allows the spike to

better

penetrate

the

ice

while

reducing damage done to the road by the spike.

But whilst these developments are

fleet of older generation vehicles

important, Arvidsjaur is now also used

expansive winter testing facility,

put through their paces. In terms of

safety features, some of which will

supplier puts a variety of technologies

fleet of brand new vehicles fitted

achieves higher levels of connectivity

finding made all the more impressive

style strip was used to test just anti-lock

opened in 1992. Here the mega-

through their paces. Chief among them

are the company’s diﬀerent sets of

winter tyres, including oﬀerings for the

www.automotivemegatrends.com

handling, these are outperforming a

with older VikingContact tyres, a

by the fact that the older models lack

to test a wide array of chassis and

prove important as the industry

and autonomy. Originally, the runway-

braking systems (ABS) and traction

Testing, testing, testing

Continental's sensor-based Road Condition Observer (RCO) technology feeds road information to the Cloud for sharing with other vehicles control systems, but today over 30

functions are tested. Along with ABS

and ESC, the 1,450-metre track gives

engineers a chance to test things like the MK C1 for highly automated driving,

an electronic braking system with high

levels of redundancy, and sensor-based Road

Condition

Observer

(RCO)

advanced

driver

company believes that the higher levels

of autonomy, and the pairing of data with ADAS, could provide a solution.

Alfred Eckert is Director of Advanced

Engineering for Continental’s Chassis

and Safety Division. As he explains, the

Arvidsjaur facility is important for these

master. We could see an earlier

introduction of Level 3 and Level 4

technologies

places

where

conditions are good, because this is

easier to execute, but at the end of

the day we have to provide a

sustainable, eﬀective system which

can handle things like heavy rain. In

technology, which can improve the

developments for several reasons. For

addition, an autonomous system

assistance systems (ADAS) such as

the perfect place for durability testing,

like a skilled driver and decide when

performance

a start, the extreme conditions make it

automatic emergency braking (AEB).

The focus for Continental is safety, and

componentry in the car. But in addition,

the achievement of its Vision Zero goals

– zero fatalities, zero injuries, and

eventually, zero collisions. With 1.25

million road traﬃc deaths recorded

worldwide in 2015, considerable work

remains to be done, particularly in

developing markets. Like many, the

important

consideration

with

needs to be able to make decisions

it can’t drive at all, for example in

autonomous systems requiring more

heavy fog, or blizzards.”

Arvidsjaur

Arvidsjaur, Eckert says, frequently

helping

advanced

functionalities learn how to read these challenging environments.

“Not everywhere is like California,” he

says. “The weather conditions seen

up here are something we need to

sees these conditions, and thus

provides sensors with a template

which can then be built into the technology. “This is the minimum we

must achieve,” he says. “A car must

be able to recognise these extreme

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

circumstances every time. Things would be very dangerous if a vehicle

didn’t realise it was driving through

fog, for example.”

Testing, testing, testing

Thus, the facility is a good place to test

the RCO, which uses a camera to determine friction levels on the road,

and whether conditions are slippery.

This

data,

along

with

further

information from other sources such

as the tyres, vibrations and ABS interventions, can then be fed to the

Cloud and shared with other vehicles.

Arvidsjaur provides the opportunity to

test the system’s algorithms, and whether they are correctly recognising

diﬀerent conditions such as dry tarmac, rain and snow.

In another test, RCO is used to feed information to Continental’s motion control technology, which executes

autonomous driving itself via GPS. On

a snow-covered track at the top of the runway, a Mercedes E-Class uses

friction data to determine the top speed at which it can drive itself, and adjusts its movement around the track accordingly.

As Eckert notes, the introduction of

technologies such as ABS in 1978,

ESC in the mid-1990s and AEB in 2006

has demonstrably improved road safety. In Germany, for example,

fatalities per annum at one point

reached over 20,000 at the start of

the 1970s. The 2017 figure was 3,170.

Technologies such as those tested in

Arvidsjaur will continue to drive the

figure down, but their reliability and robustness will be paramount for OEMs, particularly those that take

control out of the driver’s hands, and

they will require assurances that

systems can stand up to fierce

environments. Such is one of the

major roles of facilities like Arvidsjaur

in 2018 – if it works here, it’s likely to work anywhere.

www.automotivemegatrends.com

The Arctic Circle may play a key role in the testing of black circles, but it's not the sort of place you'd expect to see a Mustang... 43

Autonomous cars will turn parking into an unpleasant memory

Photo credit: Jeﬀrey Charles Photography, Inc.

Autonomous Car Detroit 2018

There’s much to be done before we have autonomous cars on public roads, ranging from testing and validation to developing business models, writing regulation and defining liability. But enough with the problems, say the AV proponents – let’s talk about solutions! At Autonomous Car Detroit, Martin Kahl heard about the challenges, and the opportunities AUTONOMOUS CARS SAvE livES When it comes to autonomous cars,

how to prove out the safety of a self-

better than humans will enhance the

Huai Peng of Michigan’s Mcity – and

a proactive way with governments,

to cut into that 94% statistic so often

safety is the number one issue, said

driving vehicle. We need to engage in

transportation experience and begin

cited as the percentage of human

no-one at the event disagreed. There’s

cities, regulators and academics to

technology but also the regulatory

safety and business side.”

main focus of autonomy should be

Vehicle Programs at Uber’s Advanced

Better quality time spent on the

NavInfo and the Open AutoDrive

still plenty to do to perfect not only the

frameworks. Stephen Lesh, Head of

Technology Group, who gave his

keynote at the event just days before tragedy struck in Arizona, noted that,

“There are no deﬁnitive guidelines on

build out the regulations on both the

road; increased productivity; increased

error-related car crash deaths. “The

to save lives,” said Volker Sasse of

Forum. Get the technology right,

mobility for the elderly and the

said Sasse, and “the risk of human

drunk – autonomous cars that drive

many lives.”

infirm, for the blind and the blind-

error can be reduced and will save

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Autonomous Car Detroit 2018

HUMAN FACTORS MATTER Develop a great business model,

develop a great vehicle, and perfect the

autonomous drive technology – but if

you fail to factor in the human

autonomy, we need to get through the

semi-autonomous phase. It’s a strange

phase, said Chris Rockwell, CEO of

Bernhart of Roland Berger concurred:

“OEMs must ﬁgure out how to keep the

driver engaged so they can take over if

Lextant: “Vehicles still rely on the driver

needed but they can still use their time

Ironically, partial automation is often

ideal experience for most vehicle

practically or for entertainment.” The

experience, then your vehicle is as good

to take over if things don’t work well.”

won’t meet its revenue goals. Human

more stressful than fully manual

occupants using a Level 5 vehicle on a

every autonomous vehicle programme.

monitor whether the vehicle is doing

unambiguous and predictable, noted

as redundant, and your business model

factors must be at the heart of any and

driving, as drivers need to constantly

regular basis will be one that is

And before we get anywhere near

what it is supposed to. Wolfgang

Sam Abuelsamid of Navigant Research.

“We can use our network to handle all

will need to be a vast supporting

also mentioned by Maven’s Jeﬀ Shields,

Lesh. “We haul people, food and freight.

Sharing vehicles is great in theory, but it

cars with a ﬂeet management system

technology.” The food and freight might

behaviour, and the support network

network, all geared towards providing

business. For Uber’s self-driving ﬂeet –

potentially

SElF-DRiviNG CAR NETwORKS will NEED A vAST SUPPORTiNG ECOSySTEM diﬀerent types of mobility,” said Uber's

Essentially it’s the same underlying turn out to be the easier parts of the

indeed, for any self-driving ﬂeet – there

network, or ecosystem, as Lesh called it.

will be diﬃcult to control people’s

could be very busy on the upkeep of vandalised

and

soiled

vehicles. Such a back-end ecosystem,

PARKiNG will bE CONFiNED TO HiSTORy Even those of us who like driving

head to the city limits to park. Inner-

hate parking, remarked Jon Demerly

city parking will be a thing of the past,

“But what if your car could drop you

currently occupied by parking garages.

smart cities of the future, autonomous

cited

of Volvo-Autoliv joint venture Zenuity.

oﬀ, and then go and park itself?” In the

cars will take you to your destination

would support the ﬂeet of self-driving and

service

and

maintenance

what Lesh predicted will be “a great rider experience that will encourage

people to adapt to this new technology.”

simply driving around looking for

parking, said Nathan Donnell of INRIX

estate

Parking Services, which results in

The elimination of parking is often

It’s an incredible statistic, given that, as

freeing

valuable

leading

real

beneﬁt

autonomous drive technology. Up to

37,000 gallons of fuel wasted annually.

Donnell pointed out, “There are 250

million cars in the US, and a billion

30% of city traﬃc is made up of people

parking spaces.”

If an AV is nothing more than the next

human driver is in control of the

calibration as just one of a host of

matter – and looks are likely to be

sudden movements or unexpected

possible. The smoother the ride, the

ease of ingress and egress, rather

brake

for the way it drives, unremarkable is

being sought for this issue, Navigant's

and then, if not required elsewhere,

AUTONOMOUS CARS NEED TO bE…UNREMARKAblE? available

robo-taxi,

looks

won’t

dictated by seat conﬁguration and than sportiness and aerodynamics. As

the name of the game. When a good

www.automotivemegatrends.com

vehicle, there are generally few if any

turns. AVs will need to accelerate, and

steer

smoothly

and

unremarkably. Whilst solutions are Abuelsamid suggested suspension

ways of making the ride as smooth as

better – you won't be hailing a robo-

taxi for its torque and acceleration,

but for its ability to drive without

inducing fear or motion sickness, noted Abuelsamid.

Cyber security

The modern dashboard must be a digital fortress, urge experts Infotainment systems and advanced clusters provide drivers with more functions than ever, but If OEMs donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t take proper care, they could provide hackers with a back door. By xavier boucherat

he hack of a Tesla Model S

back

September

2016

grabbed considerable headlines.

Researchers from Chinese tech giant

Tencent, an investor in the OEM, were

have

been

examples of car-hacking.

malicious

That said, one detail to emerge from

able to remotely control features like

the hacks neatly highlights a central

most worryingly, the brakes.

become hubs of connectivity. In both

door locks, seats, indicators and, Less than a year later, in July 2017,

security concern for OEMs as vehicles

incidents, the hackers exploited the in-

vehicle web browser built into the

the same team was able to hack a

infotainment system. Today, these

statement from Tesla assured owners

norm for new vehicles, and customer

in the wild was very low, and Tencent

dashboards and instrument clusters is

Model X, with similar results. A

that the risk of such events occurring

affirmed that its complex methods

required certain circumstances which

would be difficult to replicate. The

statistics back Tesla up â&#x20AC;&#x201C; to date,

there

infotainment systems are virtually the

appetite for connected features in their

only set to grow. The question for OEMs

is, how can these functions be provided without creating new security risks?

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Cyber security

If you have a process with access to the CAN bus running, this could potentially be used to take control of a vehicle. There’s no way an infotainment system should be able to access critical systems on the CAN bus, be it directly or indirectly

To answer this, it is important to

understand

what

happened

Director

Automotive

for some time, is that as more vehicles

Brokish. “There is far more content,

get connected, so too do they become

because alongside the critical indicators

Business

“The amount of code that’s getting put

information from the infotainment

explains that in this case, the oversight

being added, is growing at an alarming

directions, radio, climate control, and

examples like Tesla’s. Chuck Brokish, of

Development at Green Hills Software,

lay in enabling access to the vehicle’s

CAN bus, from where functions can be controlled, through the infotainment

more susceptible to vulnerabilities.

and

gauges,

there

additional

system, such as mapping, turn-by-turn

into vehicles, and the features that are

rate,” says Brokish. “Every line and

other vehicle information.”

module of code that you add is one

The solution to prevent incidents

more opportunity for vulnerabilities.

system. “What the previous hacks have

More features mean more attack

moving forward, says Brokish, is strict

with access to the CAN bus running,

over 150 million lines of code, and an

determined whether a function is

over 20 million lines.

access to the CAN bus or other critical

control was not limited. And there’s no

What’s more, modern dashboards are

require it, its access must be restricted.

able to access critical systems on the

interplay

demonstrated is, if you have a process this could potentially be used to take

control of a vehicle,” he says. “In this case, it was an example in which access

way an infotainment system should be

CAN bus, be it directly or indirectly.”

The fundamental concern, and one

which the industry has been aware of

mandatory access control. It must be

surfaces.” Modern vehicles can use

infotainment system alone can use

safety-critical, and whether it needs

vehicle systems. If a function doesn’t

characterised in part by a complex

To that end, the company recently

systems and instrument panels. “When

concept, developed in collaboration

between

unveiled its Connected Cockpit Vehicle

infotainment

we talk about safety critical, the dash

with Renesas Electronics and others.

The key element from Green Hills is

today is far more complex than

traditional dashes have been,” says

the INTEGRITY real-time separation Facial Recognition Algorithms

Digital Instrument Cluster Altia Engine

Rear View Camera

Facial Recognition Camera

OpenGL ES3.1

Video Driver

Multimedia Streaming

Navigation

SDR

Android Oreo

Resources Monitoring and Analysis

Health Monitor

Vehicle Bus Interface

Gear Shift Controller (PRNDL)

INTEGRITY Multivisor Virtual Machine

INTEGRITY RTOS HyperFlash

SD Card

eMMC

2x HDMI

Display Controller

Video Controller

R-Car H3 Salvator-X

Touch Screen

Gigabit Ethernet

4x Arm Cortex-A53

4x Arm Cortex-A57

GPU

Renesas Electronics and Green Hills Software collaborated to showcase the INTEGRITY RTOS and Renesas R-Car H3 for trusted consolidation of multiple eCockpit functions

www.automotivemegatrends.com

Cyber security

Get your priorities right: If displays are to share safety-critical and infotainment functions, there can be no compromise on the safety-critical aspect kernel – an operating system which

(ADAS) may make use of the same

achieved the highest level of safety

vehicle cameras as a rear-view

and which separates tasks.

and security certiﬁcation in the world,

“

One of the main challenges in

system, the latter being a safetyfunction.

Equally,

the

infotainment system makes use of

alongside non-critical functions, such

as map rendering or showing the label of the music being played on the

infotainment system, it cannot aﬀord

have

non-critical

functions

the same audio system needed

occupying the graphics engine to the

parallel with non-critical ones is

safety function. Not only must the

the driver needs in time. And so

are

free from interference.

running

safety-critical

tasks

guaranteeing the required resources available

for

the

former,

particularly when resources are

for warning-based chimes from a

resource be available, but it must be

shared between the two. Consider a

“Another shared example is graphics,”

advanced driver assistance systems

graphics for safety-critical functions

camera, says Brokish: informational

says Brokish. “If a vehicle is to use

detriment of the safety critical tell-tales

mandatory access control determines what

functions

resources.”

have

Graphics

access

become

particularly complex as vehicles adopt

3D digital gauges, which compared to their simpler 2D predecessors look far

The dash today is far more complex than traditional dashes have been. Alongside safetycritical indicators and gauges, there is additional information from the infotainment system, such as mapping, turn-by-turn directions, radio, climate control, and other vehicle information

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Cyber security more realistic and can convey far more

information to a driver, including

those safety-critical tell-tales.

Another challenge is that as time goes on, vehicle complexity increases the

diﬃculty of proper separation. A

fundamental process used by Green Hills, explains Brokish, is the Hazard

“

Analysis and Risk Assessment (HARA),

which addresses what functions are running in the vehicle, and whether

these can interfere with the smooth

running of other functions. “The whole

process gets more complicated as more functions are added,” he says,

“and safety functions need to be

Mandatory access control is the best way to defend safety-critical functions from malicious intervention, believes Chuck Brokish of Green Hills Software

The amount of code that’s getting put into vehicles, and the features that are being added, is growing at an alarming rate. Every line and module of code is one more opportunity for vulnerabilities. More features mean more attack surfaces

separated not just from non-critical

designed in such a way that they have

Collaboration, suggests Brokish, will

that no one function aﬀects the safe

those systems themselves need to be

meet the challenges in complexity

ones, but from each other, to ensure

access to safety-critical busses, then

operation of another.

considered

“Proper separation of the non-critical

contributing to safety or not. What’s

assessment,

within

safety-critical

whether

they’re

only become more important to

ahead. “If you consider how much code is in a vehicle today,” he says,

“no one vendor is going to be able to

functions can also make this easier

more, certain features could move

related,” he continues. “If I can

for example, eﬀorts are under way in

medicine today – of course there is a

and rely instead on cameras, which

most cases, you’ll end up seeing a

when trying to assess what is safety

guarantee that, for example, my

infotainment system is running and is

from convenience to safety-critical – the industry to remove side mirrors

not able to get access to critical busses

transforms the role of surround view

from

cameras and displays transition from

in the system, then I can remove this the

list

safety

critical

variables.” For now, however, as

Brokish points out, if systems are

www.automotivemegatrends.com

create it all. There are areas of

expertise much like you see in

place for a general physician, but in

specialist. And this is now the case

cameras. When this happens, those

for software vendors.” All of this

informational convenience functions

done with safety and security of the

to safety-critical functions.

collaboration, he concludes, must be

end product in mind.

Automotive software

OEMs need modular platform strategies for software Vehicle manufacturers should apply car manufacturing techniques to software development. Megan lampinen talks to Wind River’s Marques McCammon

erfecting

aspects

the

technological

connected

car

systems may prove the easy bit

for vehicle manufacturers; it's working out a proﬁtable and practical business

model for mass production that's the real challenge.

Connectivity is presenting today's

OEMs with a double whammy in that

add enough diﬀerentiation on top to

appeal

the

consumer?

The

potential savings in time and cost would be enormous.

Plugging the software gap

"Today we are moving into a software-

investment requirements are rising

related industry, and the vehicle

vehicle manufacturers are investing

that

while proﬁts are declining. Most

manufacturers are entering a space they

don’t

understand,"

the software space. At the same time,

Connected Vehicle Solutions at Wind

basic vehicle proﬁt margins are under

attack. With the incoming regulations

around safety, security and fuel

observed

necessarily

tremendous amounts of money –

billions of dollars in some cases – in

McCammon,

General

Marques

Manager,

River.

At the end of the day, OEMs are

economy, some forecasts call for a 1-

basically aiming to accomplish four

over the next ﬁve to ten years. The key

down

2% drop in average proﬁt per vehicle

to surviving the squeeze could lie in

targets, which McCammon breaks into

Abstract

the

their

acronym

ACRU:

dependencies

software strategy.

multiple levels in the way that they

Some OEMs today spend between

compute resources so they don’t have

US$50m and US$80m for a single

instance of an infotainment system. They will generally develop separate

systems for their upmarket brands or

models, their mid-market oﬀering and

handle software; Consolidate their

simply

keep

adding

controllers and more engineers in

order to execute eﬀectively; Reuse the

software

that

they’ve

already

generated and invested in; and

the lower-end oﬀering. What if they

Update

harden it, test it and reuse it across all

provide long-term value.

could take the same basic framework,

of their various price classes, but just

the

software

and

the

experience to the consumer to

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

Automotive software

The belief that OEMs need to take more control of the software and know from whence it’s coming is valid, but considerable time and attention has to go into looking at how they execute that part of the business

Some incumbents have been trying to

develop all the necessary expertise in-

house but ﬁnd themselves up against

Amazon, Google and Apple, the likes of

which live in the software domain full time and move through it much more

dynamically. "The notion of just setting

up software teams or going out and buying software is probably not going

to prove to be suﬃcient in the long

run," McCammon told Megatrends.

"The belief that OEMs need to take

more control of the software and know from whence it’s coming is valid,

but considerable time and attention

has to go into looking at how they

execute that part of the business."

without any impact on payback. One

solution could be to create a level of

separation in the approach to software.

Wind River suggests separating the its

dependence

the

the microprocessors and the silicon

Some brands have been trying to meaning

its Android-based infotainment system.

the consumer sees. The focus is

Redistributing responsibility

the applications at the top layer that

squarely on the framework in the

middle. "We try to find ways to

standardise the framework across

the industry to ensure a predictable

encourage our customers to let us

redistribute

root

applications that the consumer sees.

This requires signiﬁcant investment,

some of which could be avoided

www.automotivemegatrends.com

responsibilities

the

roles

involved

and the

software design development. It is

the top level where the consumer

They can then focus investment at

While this may represent a shift in

thinking for automotive players when

unlikely to be practical for every OEM staﬀ

thousands

software

engineers, but they could more easily staﬀ several hundred and restrict their focus to those customer-facing areas. They would then look to the software

it comes to software, it's not a million

industry to provide the frameworks

approach

integrating these frameworks.

framework of a car, or the chassis, is

very

start early enough, it is possible to

strong so they can put their trust in it.

framework level all the way up to the

the

If collaborations among OEMs, Tier 1

suppliers and software specialists

miles away from how they already

from

are

The aim is to gain scale and speed.

performance. This also allows us to

developing

everything

they

with Honda on such an approach with

on which the software runs, as well as

sees the value."

address the software stack at all levels,

software, but it requires a diﬀerent

Wind River has already been working

from

make that framework extremely

Focus on the framework

"We can do the same thing with

computing side, including things like

value to shareholders while still

the marketplace.

money they save," he pointed out. thought process."

control costs," said McCammon. "We

remaining dynamically competitive in

frequently they can use it, the more

software framework in the middle

These companies need to invest only where it will yield the most proﬁt and

reliability and durability. The more

car

production.

The

and the Tier 1 suppliers to assist with

generally reusable at some level.

"It represents a disconnect from the

developing a basic platform to give it

the Tier 1 provides all the software

"OEMs spend considerable time on

current supply chain model, where

Automotive software locked into a box and then hands it

competition and drive down costs.

the reality is we can use that update

McCammon. "In that model, the OEM

speed," McCammon commented.

designing until the time that we start

Consolidation kicks in quickly as well.

said McCammon.

over

“

the

OEM,"

conceded

does not have suﬃcient control of its

destiny. The alternative is that the

This should also help me achieve

OEM does all the work in-house, but

In the experimentation phase of

aspects that don't return value. The

most OEMs run cars with super

then it ends up spending money on brands then lose the scale and the

shared business risk model. We are

trying to help the industry turn

traditional thinking on its side."

autonomous vehicles, for instance,

computers in the trunk, cooled by

huge fans because they run extremely hot. That's simply not possible in a

production environment.

philosophy from the time that we start

the next design. From cradle to cradle,"

A living, breathing thing

One of the biggest obstacles to realising this general approach is a

misunderstanding about the nature of

OEMs spend considerable time on developing a basic platform to give it reliability and durability. The more frequently they can use it, the more money they save

ACRU broken down These changes become all the more

pressing as companies shift from pilot

volumes to mass market. Moving to

The savings from the 'reuse' aspect are

software design. It cannot be delivered

experimentation, software models for

vehicle. "When we hold software to the

easily apparent. In the early stages of

automated driving features are very

likely to be built on PCs. Once these

are validated, engineers go back and

production is a completely diﬀerent

redesign them in more production-

bubble of a small scale trial. "When a

approach is very wasteful. "We need to

discipline from operating in the

company starts to move towards production, the change has to shift

from sizzle to steak. Everyone needs

oriented

software.

That

whole

provide the industry with frameworks

in which they can start developing and

experimenting from day one," said

to start looking at how to achieve scale

McCammon. "We need to make it so

reliability and conﬁdence in the

same software base over and over.

protect themselves against potential

architected and rebuilt."

and speed in the execution along with

delivery," he noted. "They also need to for risk."

This is where ACRU comes into play,

starting with that abstraction away

from dependencies on hardware. "If

I’m not dependent on one particular

schedule, resulting in a mismatch," he

warned. Hardware matures in a very

diﬀerent way to software. This goes

back to the idea that software is

constantly moving and changing.

The software specialists realise how

organic software is. "It is like a living,

breathing

There is less that needs to be re-

extract new value from it or make it

The ﬁnal aspect, updating, is critical due

thing,"

emphasised

McCammon. Today everyone is trying to

stronger. In automotive, that's not always possible due to the hard and fast

production schedules. With the shift

to the evolving nature of software.

towards mobility as a service, that

we have to make sure that we have the

the economics and the quality of the

"Because software continues to evolve, ability to touch it continuously. When

then I can benefit from supply chain

harvesting value post deployment, but

same delivery pattern, the same

production cycle and production

that as they evolve, they’re reusing the

ECU or one particular microprocessor

in order to make my system work,

like other hard components in the

talk

about

updating

vehicle

software, we’re only thinking about

changes. "That has a direct impact on automotive industry," he added. "To realise that, we have to pivot our

thinking as an industry to intercept the

way that world functions and operates."

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Machine learning

Artiﬁcial intelligence in smart cities – what’s the link? With smart cities thriving on automation and data processing, AI will ﬁnd a raft of applications – but it needs to learn from humans, learns Freddie Holmes

rtificial intelligence (AI) could

play a key role in numerous

applications within a smart

city, from improvements to traffic and

parking management to the safe

integration of autonomous rideshare vehicles.

However, in many cases, human

“

creativity is necessary in order to teach

an AI programme the models and patterns that need to be recognised.

Once trained, this AI can then sift through a monumental volume of data

in a ﬂash, and at high accuracy.

“Basic AI, or machine learning to be

Francisco-headquartered AI platform.

“There are many layers that can be

unpeeled in terms of possibilities.”

Figure Eight trains, tests and tunes

machine learning models to ‘make AI work in the real world.’ The ﬁrm’s

human-in-the-loop AI platform works

with data such as audio, image, text and video for a range of applications

including autonomous vehicles, ‘chat

bots’ and facial recognition.

Smile, you’re on camera

A significant application for AI in the

more apt, is ideal for adoption in the

smart city is video surveillance, and

Marketing Oﬃcer of Figure Eight, a San

television (CCTV) cameras already

smart city,” said Randi Barshack, Chief

in some cities today, closed-circuit

Basic AI is ideal for adoption in the smart city, and there are many layers that can be unpeeled in terms of possibilities

www.automotivemegatrends.com

“

Machine learning

AI can do in milliseconds what it might take years for a human to process, but you need to have those data points, and you need to have the theory; AI is not at the point where you can just say: make the traﬃc patterns better

use AI for facial recognition. In December 2017, a BBC reporter

demonstrated how this technology could be used for security purposes,

to solve, and how AI can be applied to solve them.”

For example, if traffic congestion is

and was tracked down by AI in the

an issue, there are a variety of

ten minutes. In Zhengzhou, police

traffic lights are metered, or building

Chinese city of Guiyang in less than

officers are using ‘smart’ AI glasses to

the same effect, recognising criminal

suspects and finding civilians with fake IDs.

solutions such as adjusting the way

or closing new roads. AI can be used to process this traffic data, but there

the

scene.

Facial

recognition technology could also source the person’s name, age and

home

address,

information

and

pass

the

this

relevant

authorities. “But it’s not just that this

technology can recognise a face or an

anomaly, it can also register facial

expressions and gesture recognition,”

added Barshack. “The number of

things you can do with camera-based AI is virtually endless, but it is critical

for municipalities and cities to first

understand the problems they need

provision of accessible, aﬀordable and clean mobility services – be it public

and on-demand vehicle hire. In many

might take years for a human to

detect that a medical professional is

A pillar to any smart city is the

place. This is where human creativity

algorithm to work with in the first

assistance. If a pedestrian collapses required

Future mobility brings new challenges

transport or through private vendors

is necessary. As Barshack explained,

in the street, camera-based AI could

matter of minutes.”

must be an initial theory for the

AI could be used not only to

apprehend, but also to provide

prove out can now be done in a

“AI can do in milliseconds what it process, but you need to have those

that oﬀer ride-sharing, bike sharing cities,

ride-sharing

has

become

particularly popular, but there have been teething pains for city planners.

data points, and you need to have

The nature of ride-sharing results in

where you can just say: ‘make the

stops on a single journey, much like a

the theory. AI is not at the point traffic patterns better’.”

these vehicles making numerous

city bus. However, a lack of dedicated pick-up and drop-oﬀ areas can lead to

By using human intelligence to

a spike in congestion and an increased

then be used to model the results of

the antithesis of a smart city road

create potential solutions, AI can

proposed measures. This also allows

likelihood of a road traffic incident – network. “Traffic is a significant issue

better

in San Francisco these days, for

‘what if’ scenarios can be explored at

occurs because there are no spots

for

corner

understood speeds

you

cases

beforehand. never

would

“Those have

imagined before,” she explained.

“What might have taken years to

example, and much of that traﬃc

where ride-sharing vehicles can pull

over,” said Barshack. “If spaces were

freed up, what would happen to

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Machine learning parking congestion?” Human-in-theloop AI could help city planners to understand this, she suggested.

Autonomous cars are also considered

bicycle sharing, while in California,

electric scooter hire has become

the diﬀerence between a pedestrian

and a person on a scooter,” continued

increasingly popular. With improved

Barshack. “Policy and lawmakers also

to mobility in mind, city planners are

happening in this space; if you’re used

air quality and greater ease of access

need to be educated on what is

a signiﬁcant element to any smart city.

encouraging such alternatives to

time is wasted as it is either stationary

pose a number of new challenges to

understand what you’re dealing with.”

Today, the vast majority of a vehicle’s

private vehicle ownership. This will

in a parking lot or at home. This

autonomous driving AI in coming

drivers are simply searching for a

increasingly capable of driving amid

creates a situation where many

“ parking

space,

exacerbating

congestion issues. “In theory, these

years, which will need to become these new parties.

vehicles could be moving, transporting

“In San Francisco, e-scooters have

more interesting way,” said Barshack,

place,” said Barshack, “but a person

and managing our lives in a much pointing to the opportunities of a fully

autonomous vehicle.

suddenly popped up all over the

on a scooter could be really confusing for an autonomous car. It thinks it

regulating

horses,

and

cars

suddenly come in, you need to

Machine learning needs human creativity

It is clear that AI will have a part to

play in the smart city, both in terms

improving

the

capability

autonomous vehicles and in assisting

the development of roadways that can

The number of things you can do with camera-based AI is virtually endless, but it is critical for municipalities and cities to ﬁrst understand the problems they need to solve, and how AI can be applied to solve them

Over

the

past

decade

so,

autonomous test vehicles have been

taught how to recognise a plethora of objects they may encounter on the

sees a pedestrian, but its trajectory is faster than the average speed of a

can

Francisco city authorities blasted a

reduce crime and improve incident

pedestrian.”

April

2018,

San

road and surrounding environment.

number of electric scooter-share

pedestrian, to a dog or parked truck

permission.

Anything

from

lamppost

has been programmed into the

system, with an understanding of how

these actors may walk, run, change lanes or pull into the road. However,

in a smart city, there will not only be

cars and pedestrians to worry about.

For example, one of the fastest

growing trends in Chinese cities is

www.automotivemegatrends.com

handle new forms of mobility. Citizens

companies for deploying without Proposed

legislation

also

expect

under more accurate surveillance to response eﬃciency.

City authorities will be able to work

would see all operators require a

through huge quantities of data to

that are not ‘parked responsibly’. Bikes

with demand for parking, and access

permit, with penalties for scooters

and baby strollers can also pose issues to autonomous driving AI.

“Development teams will be ensuring

that autonomous driving models understand all these nuances, such as

test and deploy new initiatives to cope

ride-share

vehicles.

What

interesting is that despite the push to

develop AI that is more capable than a human, it is the human element that

will prove vital in training these

algorithms in the ﬁrst place.

Connected Car California 2018

Auto industry makes the CASE for the MaaS market car Whether shared, electriﬁed or autonomous, the car of the future will be connected. At Connected Car California, a future-of-the-auto-industry event organised by Automotive Megatrends, OEMs and suppliers joined mobility companies and tech suppliers to discuss the auto industry’s connected future. Martin Kahl reﬂects on the key talking points CONNECTiviTy EASES CONGESTiON Since the birth of the automobile,

we’ve been hailing and sharing rides,

yet ride-hailing and ride-sharing have

much anyway – most cars stand

unused for over 90% of the time. Why buy a car, when – with just a few

become central to mobility as a

swipes of an app – you can use a car

removes ten vehicles from the road,

burden of ownership?

service (MaaS). Every shared car

said keynote speaker Akshay Jaising of

Maven. Just look at the numbers: car

ownership costs an average US$800 a

month, before it’s even been driven,

said Jaising. And it won’t be driven

whenever you want without the MaaS is a “response to the economic

and social growth we’re in,” said

Launch Forth’s Adam Elmaghraby,

representing Local Motors – but

three trends need to be combined for that response to be efficient and viable,

noted

Mark

Thomas

Ridecell: car-sharing, ride-sharing and

ultimately

also

autonomy.

Jaising’s message backed that up: the

automotive industry is evolving,

“becoming more autonomous and taking steps in the right direction to

connected, autonomous, shared and electric vehicles.”

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Connected Car California 2018

PARKiNG – wHAT A bUSiNESS! It’s easy to dismiss parking as a

Thanks to connectivity and smart

of the past thanks to autonomous

worth US$35bn in the US alone and

reduced relatively easily to zero. The

works out how to survive this

connected car, because it helps it

ensure

change in the smart cities of the

for parking, to congestion caused by

might, with city centre parking a thing

city-limit parking lots.

We love apps. The average smartphone

connected cars, said Pulathaneli –

is on the rise; by 2020, we can expect

Timur Pulathaneli. Apps provide users

AppLink and the multi-OEM SDL

connected cars globally, according to

their apps safely whilst driving. The

Connected Car at Cisco Jasper, and 400

necessary evil, but it’s a big business,

US$100bn globally. Sizeable numbers,

for sure, but it’s an industry with

considerable cash loss. The holes are

being plugged, and the cash loss is

coming down, but it’s still as high as 15%, noted Ed Lewis of ParkWhiz.

bOy, wE lOvE OUR APPS contains 119 apps, Ford AppLink’s

parking, that cash loss can be

parking industry is a big fan of the

make

money.

That

won’t

future, but the nature of parking

something which Ford aims to do with

driving. While the parking industry paradigm shift, city planners must we

don’t

move

from

congestion caused by people looking driverless cars heading to and from

to see anywhere between 220 million Krish Inbarajan, Global Head of

with the data they want and need; in

Platform which enables people to access

OEMs get the data they need and want.

resultant data transfer rates are eye-

million, according to Green Hills

25GB/hour; for an autonomous car, it’s

right is all-important for future success:

return, the service providers and the

It’s during boring commutes that

drivers want to use the content on their

phone, so the challenge is to deliver

that content appropriately to the

watering: a connected car generates

around 170-840GB/hour – per car. Now

factor that across a ﬂeet of vehicles.

Software’s Chuck Brokish. Getting it

“Big Data and AI are key ingredients

to next-generation mobility,” said

future

And the number of connected cars

Evangelos Simoudis of Synaps.

In several languages, safety and

secure updates for the automotive

millions of other connected devices.

hundreds

millions

SAFETy AND SECURiTy bOOKEND THE CONNECTED CAR security are the same word; Brokish

industry. The development of the

the well-designed connected car. And

number of attack surfaces: We’ve

believes safety and security bookend

there’s no place for complacency: a

ﬂaw built into one vehicle is replicated

across a vehicle platform: “Mass

production can ultimately end up in

mass destruction,” he warned, adding: “If it’s not secure, it’s not safe” – a theme echoed by Elektrobit’s Walter

Sullivan, who discussed the need for

Nancy Zayed of MagicCube, noting

advanced,

smartphone and Raspberry Pi, right

but

left

ourselves

vulnerable, was the common theme.

Another common theme was that anything connected to the internet is

vulnerable – and depending on

security protocols, it could be exposed

question is, in what form? And

Katz, Co-Founder of Phantom Auto.

match human driver awareness and

Level 5, would be the headline from

enough, would be the qualiﬁcation.

“Level 5, where the vehicle can drive

anywhere and do anything a human

www.automotivemegatrends.com

range

from

through to a connected car. The big

diﬀerence is that a connected car is an IoT device moving at 65mph. Again

the overlap between safety and

security – and one that becomes

increasingly

important

for

0.001% better than humans, they

Technologies, Renovo Motors and the debate – but it can’t come soon

devices

can do, is a long way off,” said Elliott

Luminar’s CTO Jason Eichenholz

Phantom Auto. We’re a long way from

IoT

autonomous future…

when? ‘The path to Level 5 autonomy’

panel featured PSA Group, Luminar

that

to the vulnerabilities introduced by

THE PATH TO lEvEl 5 AUTONOMy iS lONG Autonomous driving is coming; the

What even is an IoT device? asked

connected car has vastly increased the

agreed: “We’re 20-25 years out to

decision-making.” But in order to

access the full potential of autonomy

in the near future, OEMs need to start getting these vehicles onto the

road, said Eichenholz. For Chris

Heiser, Renovo’s CEO, speed is of the

essence: “The moment robots are

should be on the roads.”

Life at Level 5 will be safer and

more eﬃcient than today, and will

beneﬁt society. Getting there will

be the challenge. “The complex

environment is the biggest challenge,

with the inﬁnite number of decisions

that must be made,” said Larry

Dominique, Chief Executive at PSA

Group North America.

From roadside assistance to digital assistants As cars evolve, as new business models arise, and as the term mobility takes on new and greater meaning, membership organisations like AAA are rethinking their strategies to keep ahead of the curve and ensure they remain relevant. By Celeste Dooley

ow does a hundred-plus

year-old

roadside

service

club remain relevant in the

industry it serves, when that industry

is teetering on the brink of some of

the greatest changes it has ever faced?

It’s a question troubling any and every

organisation that has for many decades

depended

upon

the

automotive

industry’s status quo. But recognising

that ‘business as usual’ is unlikely to be part

the

future

mobility,

AAA was established in 1902 at a time

when the car was only just becoming a

mainstream mode of transportation.

Some 116 years later, AAA provides a

organisations such as the American

number of services to its members,

forced to adapt in accordance with a

as well as car care, insurance, travel,

Automobile Association (AAA) are being new, technological era.

including of course roadside assistance,

driver and banking services. Having

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

The future of roadside service

“

The future of roadside service

We’re having discussions with OEMs to ﬁnd out how can we interact with newer vehicles in particular, and share that information with our members

been established to support that ﬁrst

become more reliable, increasingly

the horse from the transportation

diagnostics and over-the-air software

mobility evolution, when man removed

equation, the organisation is now

assessing how it can support another

mobility evolution – one which is likely

to see vehicle usership replace vehicle

ownership,

electriﬁcation

combustion

engines,

and

replace

even

automation replace human drivers.

how

the

equipped

for

remote

updates, even the need for roadside

assistance is expected to decline.

changes, AAA’s aim is to remain with its members for the duration of their

driving lives, explained Viral Patel, Chief

Enterprise Architect at Auto Club Group

Advanced driver assistance systems

George

Onofrio,

Vice

have a ﬂat tyre, batteries will need to

features trust this technology. However,

an accident,” he said, noting that this

afraid to ride in a fully self-driving car.

be situations where someone will be replaced or someone will get into

will happen whether a car has a

combustion engine or an alternative

AAA in that assistance will evolve, said

have

been

replaced

known navigation companies. As cars

www.automotivemegatrends.com

ﬁnding a positive angle, “is that there is

a gradual experience or gradual trust

explained. “Then we had web, then a

ﬁnd

integrated connectivity from well-

“What that suggests to us,” Patel said,

are stuck on the side of the road.”

their lives.” The organisation has

which

75% of drivers also said they would feel

one point, customers could only call us

One way in which AAA is going beyond

such as the provision of paper maps

semi-automated

looking beyond that, at how to

traditional roadside assistance to now

and route and destination guidance

vehicles

consumer needs and following the

connect to our members before they

member services become irrelevant,

with

Onofrio. “There will still be some type

told Automotive Megatrends.

already seen a number of traditional

integrated

owners

being established.” AAA can utilise this

of roadside assistance, but we’re

being involved in other aspects of

vehicle

driven or not. However, the role of

they’re in a connected vehicle or if

“We’ll see a shift from what used to be

safety at an ever-increasing rate. Recent

AAA research in the US found that 75%

members. “Our goal is to be with our

they’re on vacation somewhere,” he

(ADAS) are improving car and road

Development at ACG. “There will still

powertrain, and whether it’s human-

members, regardless of whether or not

particular, and share that information

with our members,” Onofrio explained.

Nonetheless, there remains a place

for roadside assistance going forward,

(ACG), the second largest club in the

AAA federation with over 9.6 million

can we interact with newer vehicles in

AAA on ADAS

President and Head of Application

industry

exploring right now. We’re having initial

discussions with OEMs to ﬁnd out how

Electrifying times

suggests

From roadside to by your side Regardless

frequently

this is to communicate with OEMs to solutions

problems

features.

For

for

common

utilising

example,

car

connected low

tyre

pressure or battery issues could potentially be communicated to the

driver before they require roadside

assistance, through the right connected features. “Those are things that we are

by adapting, as it always has done, to

trends of the rest of the industry. “At or speak face to face,” Onofrio

mobile app. Now automatic voice

control and digital assistance is out there.”

moving

along

with

technological trends, AAA has been

able to maintain provision of a service

while still adapting to the current

connected environment.

Although vehicles are becoming safer,

reparability is inevitably becoming more

expensive due to the number of

integrated

connected

features

replacing

The future of roadside service

vehicles. “In the past, replacing a bumper

meant

just

bumper,” Onofrio explained. “Now, in a

small fender-bender accident, you’re

not only replacing a bumper as there are sensors and cameras that can suﬀer

damage in seemingly minor accidents.”

Self-driving cars Autonomous although

drive

potential

technology, threat

business-as-usual for a number of industry sectors, does not present

any immediate threats to AAA,

“

believes

Onofrio.

“We’re

seeing

vehicles today that are at Level 2

“There will still be situations where someone will have a flat tyre, batteries will need to be replaced or someone will get into an accident” - George Onofrio, Vice President, ACG

autonomy, with semi-autonomous

capabilities. Going beyond Level 2

and being in a situation where all the

always engage with our members and

members can access our services with

at least Level 2 autonomy could be

automotive

language,” he said, with a nod to the

even further away, he believes.

regulatory bodies.”

vehicles on the road are minimally of

decades away.” A fleet at Level 3 is

we also provide feedback to the industry,

well

working closely with government and

the sound of their voice using natural connected member vision of the

company’s most senior executive

management,

Our goal is to be with our members, regardless of whether or not they’re in a connected vehicle or if they’re on vacation. We’ll see a shift from traditional roadside assistance to other aspects of their lives

including

AAA’s

President and Chief Executive, Joe

Richardson. “As part of that, we are

building a conversational platform

which our members can use to engage

with us,” Patel said. He compared this to Amazon’s Alexa and Google Home,

which recognise users’ voices without

the need for any button activation.

Evolution of the auto industry, evolution of AAA

The use of digital assistants will

improve the user experience for AAA

members, Shohreh Abedi, EVP, Chief

Indeed, on the ﬂip side, the rise in

Patel described a “paradigm shift” in

Operations and Technology Oﬃcer at

company. “Here at AAA, our goal is to

members. This is in part due to the

our

autonomy could be a positive for the

educate drivers on the safety beneﬁts and

the

limitations

these

engagement

increased

behaviour

integration

for

AAA

digital

assistants in vehicles. Patel explained

applications, whether it’s autonomous

that AAA has recognised this increased

or, as in the past, the importance of

compatible with the organisation’s

technologies which are emerging now,

the safety belt,” Patel explained. “We

ACG, told Megatrends. “As we evolve voice

commands,

AAA

will

become more powerful and easier to use on or oﬀ the road,” she said.

“Interactive technologies will provide

trend and is striving to make it

our members the ability to access our

aims. “We want to make sure our

whenever they need them. We are

products and services wherever and

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

The future of roadside service

Interactive technologies will provide our members the ability to access our products and services wherever and whenever they need them. We are achieving our connected member vision while preserving our brand value and embracing smart connected technologies

achieving our connected member

service through A3 Ventures; GIG Car

value and embracing the smart

and Oakland in California.

vision while preserving our brand

connected technologies our members use in their everyday lives.”

Looking further ahead, Patel said he

expects to see artiﬁcial intelligence (AI)

playing a bigger role in the company’s services. He cited as an example the

virtual automated call centre launched

Share is currently active in Berkeley

their

vehicles,

important mentality in an industry

support

may no longer own cars and may feel

they

AAA

ACG members.” This technology has

wake of smart mobility solutions,

venture

importance. Particularly for younger

could be much less prevalent in the

alleviated the issues associated with

which present opportunities to cut

centre to operate 24/7.

increasingly eﬃcient ways of getting

costs and emissions, while becoming around smart cities.

for connected, autonomous, shared

Digital assistants again can be an

but inevitably to cities more quickly

technology into mobility vehicles to

and electric (CASE) vehicles, is coming –

a new era in which its members

generations, the idea of owning a car

Change, in the wake of advancements

membership in a rapidly moving

and over nine months we successfully

peak volume and enables the call

for

industry, particularly one facing

where vehicle ownership is declining in

serviced over one million calls from

essential

continue

by AAA in 2017. “We were able to

reduce the whole call intake process,

organisation as old as AAA to be able

AAA wants to follow its members, than

Clearly, technological and corporate

evolution

Don’t follow the vehicle, follow the member rather

Evolution

eﬀective way of integrating connected

such membership. doing

longer

this

require

through

its

aforementioned Oakland-headquartered and

innovation

lab,

Ventures. “We exist to harness these

forces for the beneﬁt of members and future

generations,

humanizing

disruptive change for the betterment

of the communities we serve,” the A3

Ventures

website

explains.

Using innovation to build business

models and platforms, A3 Ventures

aims to keep AAA updated in an

than rural areas. “In more rural areas

make the driving experience a safer,

implement

the

a benchmark for this, with GM

Highly

wants to move away from single OEM

in examples such as ride-sharing and

“Our goal is to go beyond just one

of smart cars and smart cities and are

in this ecosystem and so it has

with that member, no matter where

are able to remain relevant in a fast-

where it may be more diﬃcult to and

manage

infrastructure, it’ll probably take more time,”

explained

Onofrio.

urbanised, smart cities utilise mobility

robo-taxis. AAA aspires to ﬁnd a place

deployed its own start-up car-share

www.automotivemegatrends.com

smarter one. GM’s OnStar may have set

pioneering the technology, but AAA alliance to concentrate on the member.

automaker,” said Onofrio, “and to be they are and which OEM they’re with.”

industry that is being transformed by disruptive technology.

Developments like these are critical

when keeping up with the development

the reason why organisations like AAA changing industry.

Rapid prototyping

Rapid turnaround: prototyping developments make RP indispensable The race to bring technologies to market means more RP, and advances in materials and hybrid CNC-3D printing machines will mean increased capabilities. By Xavier Boucherat

oday’s automotive industry is

awash with players who, ten

years ago, had little to do with

transportation, or didn’t even exist.

The entry of tech giants, start-ups and

service providers is testament to the

proﬁt potential of greater vehicle

connectivity and autonomy, with

Silicon

Valley

and

its

global

equivalents all scrambling to carve out

their own piece of the pie.

One consequence of this is greater

demand for rapid prototyping (RP), as

OEMs race to bring advanced features

to the roads ﬁrst. Demonstrator

vehicles are a common feature of modern automotive shows, and for

these purposes, traditional tooling

isn’t necessarily practical. Instead,

designers are turning to technologies

such as additive manufacturing and

computer numerical control (CNC)

machining. Not only can they provide

the required parts far quicker, with turnaround

times

weeks

opposed to months, but the volumes they produce are far more suited for

today’s purposes. As Daniel Konrad

Photopolymer and FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling) printers 62

explains, “customers want to see

results relatively quickly, and in most

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Rapid prototyping cases, they build only around ﬁve

often send vehicles to be

traditional number like 100, because

mounted systems. These need

vehicles, as opposed to a more

the rest of what they’d like to achieve can

done

environment.”

simulated

Konrad is Vice President, Engineering

at dlhBOWLES, a leading supplier of

ﬂuid management assemblies to the automotive

industry.

Applications

retroﬁtted

with

functional,

to be attractive, as quite often,

these demonstrator vehicles

are

for

the

executives,

beneﬁt

potential

funders, and the public at large.

“What we see in the industry

include sensor cleaners, headlight

today

chassis components. The company

the hardware out there for people

leveraging its unique position as one

“They need to be able to do this

washers, and a number of body and oﬀers customers a full RP service,

of the few suppliers of its kind in the

industry. This is particularly the case

with washers, says Konrad, with

is,

manufacturers

and investors to see,” he says. quickly, and in a visually

appealing way. Rather than

mocking something up and

using

cleaning for sensors. For example, it

oﬀ ready-looking vehicles,

may mock up a subassembly where a

camera sensor and wash nozzle have been integrated, requiring brackets

and housing. This

service

available

everyone from The Big Three to startups with minimal staﬀ. Alan Romack,

Manager of Product Development and

manager of the company’s 3D printing

lab and machine shop, says that all

and

players in the market want to put

greater vehicle autonomy and ADAS

requirements which demand robust

dlhBOWLES operates across the auto industry, from global OEMs to start-ups. Pictured: front camera cleaning assembly

camouﬂage,

companies are showing

partly because in some

cases it’s about securing the venture-capital.”

Companies

oﬀering

such

services have had to develop

exposure to UV. The

methods to produce near-

3D printing industry

ﬁnished quality components,

continues to pour

carefully combining the right

eﬀort into material

material with the proper

developments, says

resolution. The importance of

Romack,

and

new

players are now short-cutting their

the former, says Romack, cannot be

development processes, and that as a

the big limitations that remains for

dlhBOWLES faces no limitations, says

frequently. “Our ability to respond

printing. From a mechanical point of

parts are smaller than a shoebox,

customers

materials are the ones designed for

way

through

the

traditional

result, requirements are changing

quickly to these changes keeps our happy,”

says.

“Sometimes, a part will go through

multiple iterations in a week.”

The technical knowhow 3D

printing

hardly

new

technology, but one of the key challenges hindering RP in previous years has been its ﬁnished quality. As

Romack explains, companies will

www.automotivemegatrends.com

underestimated, and represents one of Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM) 3D

view, he explains, the best performing

machines with low resolutions, the

attractiveness of which is low – in other

words, the resulting parts clearly look

like they’ve been 3D-printed. Such parts

are ideal for structural uses, in which

materials are released

on a virtually weekly basis. Size-wise,

Romack, given that virtually all of its

which is easily within the range of

smaller, high-resolution printers.

The other trend in 3D printing which

Konrad points to is the use of

materials other than plastics, and in

particular, steel for rapid tool building.

case they do not play a visual role.

For now, he says, dlhBOWLES remains

Meanwhile, high-resolution parts with

additive manufacturing methods, in

an attractive ﬁnish tend to be made

from

photo-sensitive

materials,

meaning they become brittle with

committed

traditional

which the part is built directly on a 3D

printer,

but

keeping

abreast

developments remains important.

“

Rapid prototyping

Manufacturers want to put the hardware out there for people and investors to see. They need to be able to do this quickly, and in a visually appealing way. Rather than mocking something up and using camouﬂage, companies are showing oﬀ ready-looking vehicles

The company also relies on CNC

spray for cleansing applications, and

production. Like 3D printing, the

being the capability to work with a

engineer can come to me on Monday

(CAD). Without this, it would be much

cases, we can have it back in their

integrate its components within a

to ten hours. This is made possible

machining

for

prototype

part

process uses digital ﬁles, but with

subtractive methods, using tools to create parts from bricks of material.

By now, the process is mature, with

so on. It comes with challenges, one

customer’s computer-aided design harder for a supplier to eﬀectively

the roots of its development in the

vehicle’s tight packaging.

well-versed in its applications.

Ultimately, says Romack, dlhBOWLES’

1950s, and many companies are now However, says Romack, in this ﬁeld, the

company

also

expects

developments. “In terms of what we

can expect in the years to come, one

own commitment to RP is what enables the company to do what it

does. “We have a dedicated lab within

the conﬁnes of our building managed

by the R&D group, so that we have the

necessary speed,” he concludes. “An morning and ask for parts. In some hands

within

continuous

little

support

eight from

management, and capital to invest in

machines. It’s hard to put dollars on

time, but there’s nothing like the smile

you get from an engineer when, just

hours later, you hand them a part they

can show their customer.”

development we’re keeping an eye on is hybrid CNC-3D printing machines,”

he says. “These allow you to deposit

metal where you like, even at a

resolution you may not be happy with,

but you can use the CNC part of the

equipment to machine it back to

shape, giving you the best of both worlds.”

But what is to stop OEMs bringing

such operations in-house? Ultimately,

says Konrad, the expertise that dlhBOWLES has developed as a

supplier means that it knows best when

comes

integration,

including how to set up a part, the

correct angles for spraying, the correct

dlhBOWLES relies on CNC machining for prototype part production. Pictured: High speed CNC office mills Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Digital simulation

The shape of water: how soil and ﬂuid simulation can save OEMs millions

Martin Kahl talks to Exa about the mucky business of keeping sensors free from dirt and water

utonomous technologies and

Cameras, for example, can struggle

Exa’s PowerFLOW simulation software

systems (ADAS) require a

hence the need to supplement them

surface contamination patterns in the

cameras for rear visibility, or sensors

Keep it clean

autonomous vehicles exist, including

and lane keeping, the key to their

Both cameras and LiDAR must be

advanced driver assistance

number of cameras and sensors to operate. Whether they are substitute

for autonomous emergency braking unhindered operation is cleanliness.

Cameras and sensors are the eyes

with glare and low light scenarios,

with sensors.

environment

which

they

operate rarely oﬀers this luxury. In

and ears of modern vehicles, and

normal

would be impossible. Their operation

number of the following; dirt, salt,

world around them, but the world in

other contaminants. When these

without them autonomous driving is based on being able to detect the

driving,

real world environment in which

rain, wheel spray and wind conditions.

clean in order to operate correctly, but

the

can be used by OEMs to predict

autonomous

This information is vital to aid sensor

positioning decisions, or to change the

vehicle design to better protect the

desired

sensor

contamination.

location

from

vehicle will typically encounter any

“The ﬁrst way we can help is that we

water, snow, tyre debris, guano and

matter are going to hit the vehicle,”

can predict where dirt, bugs or other

explains Jilesen. “Then, we can help by

contaminants deposit on cameras or

advising how changes to the vehicle

of other vehicles, pedestrians, road

severely hinder their performance. In

drag counts that might cost.” The drag

more besides. Due to the complex

must either be positioned in locations

a design change or the alteration of a

contamination, or include some form

economy, or create a noise issue.

which they operate is not a simple

one. A vehicle’s surroundings consist signs, lane lines, animals and far

environment facing an autonomous

vehicle,

even

ideal

weather

and

infrared,

conditions, multiple sensor types

including

ultrasonic,

cameras radar

and

LiDAR

sensors are required to read the

environment clearly.

The reason that so many different

pieces of autonomous technology are

necessary

because,

individually, they have limitations.

www.automotivemegatrends.com

other sensors such as LiDAR, they can order to prevent this, the sensors which

are

shielded

from

of self-cleaning system.

“Sensors get dirty and there are diﬀerent sources of contamination,

will aﬀect issues such as how many count can be used to assess whether

camera position will impact fuel “The third way we can do it is with sprayers. We can predict how the

sprayers are going to spray the

and we can help with that in three

surface and we can tell whether or

Director

under

ways,”

explains of

Jonathan

Soiling

and

Jilesen,

Water

not at diﬀerent vehicle speeds or diﬀerent

yaw

conditions,

Management at Exa Corporation,

the spray will hit the target, and

Systèmes company.

clean anything.”

which in 2017 became a Dassault

with enough force to eﬀectively

Digital simulation

Exa can predict the acoustic implications of moving a mirror, or a windscreen wiper, and how it will sound to the driver. This data can then be used to predict what the driver will hear

Cleanliness costs less

With the speed of change in sensor

Water ingestion can create particular

problems for heavy trucks, he notes.

optimise

water

and

soiling

management, and BMW has used Exa’s

“Big trucks can draw in water and

PowerFLOW solution to understand

suggest that the need to keep sensors

their filters. The brakes of a train can

sticking-plaster

cause dust particles to get ingested

into

Dirty aero

underbody. The same can happen

From aerodynamics to soil and water

brake dust from your car, certain rim

but where air goes, so goes whatever

technology, it seems prudent to clean may simply be something of a solution

the

limitations of current technology.

that can cause issues if it gets into the

motor

that’s

the

Could it be that in even just a few years’

with car brakes, because if you have

a point where there may no longer be

designs will get more brake dust

time, technology will have advanced to

a need to keep sensors clean, as they

work even when obstructed? “We’ve

researched

into

diﬀerent

coatings, for example, but such solutions all still come with associated

costs,” says Jilesen. “There will always be a balance between investing in, for

example, an expensive coating on a

surface, and just moving a sensor by a couple of inches. We can still help.”

Exa’s simulation technology is not exclusive to light vehicle applications,

however.

“We

developed

this

deposits on them than others. And if

you get that brake dust depositing on

the side body, it causes rust issues.

We can help with that.”

When it comes to the location of

sensors, Exa works not only with the

windscreen sprayer location.

management seems a strange leap, is being carried along by that air, including dirt and water. “The

aerodynamic

performance

strongly impacts the soiling,” nods

Jilesen. “We’re able to accurately

predict the transient aerodynamics,

which you need to do in order to

sensor manufacturers and the sprayer

correctly predict the soiling line. But at

vehicle manufacturers. At the 2014

because if I make the vehicle more

manufacturers, but also directly with Paris Motor Show, Jaguar displayed the

all-new XE, the ﬁrst car to have moved into production without a prototype

build for aerodynamic testing. The OEM

used Exa’s digital simulation for all

the same time, there are trade-oﬀs,

aerodynamic, it’s likely to get very dirty, especially for square-backed vehicles.

But there are other situations where the side body soiling will get better

because you’re going to manage your

technology without really seeing how

aerodynamic testing, as well as key

wheel weight better, for example.”

autonomous vehicles,” said Jilesen.

such as heat exchanger performance,

This raises an interesting question; in

cooling and aeroacoustic wind noise

aerodynamic performance, or the

Rover used Exa’s simulations to during

greater demand for a company such as

important it was going to be for “When

started

autonomous

thinking

vehicles,

about

realised

there’s a big marketing potential. But it’s also about trucks, buses, and oﬀ-

road vehicles.”

thermal

management

applications

grille sizing (with active shutters), brake

design evaluation. More recently, Land the development of the 2017 Discovery

today’s automotive industry, is it the sensor

location

which

generates

Exa? “It depends how fast the vehicle is

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Digital simulation moving,” grins Jilesen. “In trucks,

aerodynamics

deﬁnitely

important because fuel economy is

king for trucks. But at the same time,

you can’t have a failure issue due to water ingestion, so that’s a priority.”

Thermal and acoustic Beyond aerodynamics and the path of

water, Exa’s software can also be used for assessing thermal and acoustic

introduce an annoying tonal noise. We

Speak to any automotive supplier, and

Then, we use other software to

regarding is that they are not included

can predict that based on the airﬂow.

extrapolate that inside the cabin and

predict what the driver will hear.”

one of the main complaints they have

early enough in the OEM’s vehicle

design process. When asked what

advice he might have for the vehicle

location, location, location

manufacturers as they develop future vehicles, Jilesen echoes this concern:

The ultimate goal is to create vehicles where sensors are placed optimally for

minimal dirt deposition. Sensors must

“The advice that Exa is giving to the vehicle manufacturers and customers is

that if you do the simulation early, you

will ﬁnd all those problems in simulation,

performance. “And now we’re also

not be placed where they are exposed to

and you could make considerable

This is an area that he expects to play a

the capability to simulate the lifecycle of

problem as opposed to ﬁxing it later.”

“

getting into cabin comfort,” says Jilesen.

large droplets of water. PowerFLOW has

signiﬁcant role in the development of

raindrops as they approach the vehicle,

cabin is a substantial power drain from

the wake, and become deposited on the

electric vehicles. “To cool or heat the the vehicle. And that includes how the

splash on its surface, are entrained into vehicle’s

surfaces.

This

capability

ﬁnancial savings. You can eliminate a By

doing

this

the

development

work

virtually,

manufacturers can optimise designs in phase,

saving

vehicle heats up when it’s exposed to

liberates vehicle manufacturers to

hundreds of millions of dollars in

certain temperature.”

process to avoid costly cleaning devices.

identifying

the sun, and keeping the cabin at a

position sensors early in the design

expensive

physical

camera

models, and

and

sensor

We’re also getting into electric vehicle cabin comfort. To cool or heat the cabin is a substantial power drain from the vehicle. And that includes how the vehicle heats up when it’s exposed to the sun, and keeping the cabin at a certain temperature

In terms of acoustics, Exa uses the

However, if such devices are needed,

underlying digital physics methodology

correctly position sprayer cleaning

Lattice

Boltzmann

Method,

the

placement issues while they can still

the software can also be used to

be ﬁxed, relatively cheaply.

used for all Exa's simulation, including

systems, thereby accounting for the

Previously, he notes, an OEM had to

and

vehicle speed. This allows for the

management, with costs running into

acoustics. “We can get out the noise, tones,

and

predict

design

performance, such as the acoustic

implications of moving a mirror, and how it will sound in the ear of the

driver. Or if you change the design of

the windshield wipers, you may

www.automotivemegatrends.com

impact of local airﬂow at any given comprehensive

assessment

sprayer properties, such as cone

build a car to test its soiling and water

millions of dollars simply to change an

A-pillar mould. “You don’t want to do

angle, spray velocity and droplet size,

that!” he says. “We can give you that

once installed on the vehicle.

even built anything.”

on the cleaning power of the sprayer

feedback much earlier, before you’ve

Photo credit: Jeﬀrey Charles Photography, Inc.

Powertrain Detroit 2018

The powertrain of the future is BEV (and HEV, and PHEV, and FCEV…)

The car of the future may be a ‘CASE’ robo-taxi, but on the way to the future, range, battery, infrastructure and durability will dictate the powertrain, from PHEVs to BEVs, and HEVs to FCEVs. At Powertrain Detroit, Martin Kahl heard stakeholders outline why there’s still plenty for powertrain engineers to do HybRiDiSATiON iS COMiNG “Hybridisation is deﬁnitely coming,” said

Geoﬀ

Duﬀ

Honeywell

Transportation Systems, who predicts

that most ICEs will use some form of

mild hybrid by 2025. Steven Sherman of Novation Analytics and AVL’s Thomas

Huettner both agreed; the ICE, said Sherman, will dominate to 2025, but without additional electriﬁcation, it

cannot meet future CO2 regulations, so

“hybridisation in mild or full form will

come.” According to Huettner, “48V

mild hybridisation will be a cost-

more clearly: by 2035, 30% of European cars will be BEVs, 40%

hybrids, and 30% ICEs. In the US, the

eﬀective element of future OEM ﬂeet

split will be 26% BEV, 36% HEV and

CO2 beneﬁts when compared with HEV,

electrified. But combine ICEs and

CO2 strategies, but it also oﬀers limited

PHEV, BEV and FCEVs.” Schaeffler’s

Patrick

Lindemann

couldn’t have outlined the situation

38% ICE. Thus, over 62% will be

HEVs, and by 2035, 70% of vehicles

will also still use a combustion

engine. There’s plenty of life left in

the ICE.

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

Powertrain Detroit 2018

wHiCH POwERTRAiN TECH FOR THE FUTURE? All OF THEM! The top three best-selling vehicles in the

“The ICE is not the long-term solution,”

diﬃcult to make the transition to other

technologies.” The future includes BEVs

US are pick-ups, and even Ford's future

said John German of the ICCT, adding,

prepare for the future while maintaining

ICE.” He cited Mazda’s attempts to

customer and application: “I don’t think we

new hybrids and EVs is planned for the

“which is fuel cell territory. Short term,

to win in the long run,” said German. “We

product portfolio reﬂects the need to

near-term sales volumes – a range of US, but it’s heavy on trucks and SUVs.

“But beyond the ICE lies the improved

achieve

56%

thermal

eﬃciency,

these improved ICEs make it more

wE All NEED EvS, bUT wE DON’T All wANT EvS There are three reasons why OEMs

are switching to EV, said Ford’s

Venkat Anandan: CO2 reduction, fuel

perceive a lack of public charger

availability. According to the OEM’s

the need to use ugly charging cables.

vehicles stand motionless for more

daily

routine.

And

since

than 95% of each day, usually at

to 15 years.” According to Ford’s

home or workplace, the industry

of new vehicle sales could be EV. But

charging’ model and ensure charge

there are barriers to adoption.

Range anxiety prevails, and drivers

Current technology could also be a

barrier to adoption, suggested Rakan

their

result, “Most projections are pointing Rebecca Shelby, by 2030, up to 30%

need to promote all of them.”

Chabban of HATCI. The attractiveness

saw a public charging point during

to strong EV sales over the next ten

can predict which technologies are going

research, 60% of respondents never

economy regulations and the need to reduce energy dependence. As a

and FCEVs, but solutions will depend on

needs to ignore the ‘gas station

points

are

located

‘routine dwellings’.

those

of the EVs themselves is countered by The solution? Wireless charging. And

for those concerned about the safety and performance of Li-ion batteries, “solid state battery technology is the

only technology that could deliver

better volumetric energy density and safety,” noted Ford’s Anandan.

REvOlUTiONS iN GASOliNE TECH will bREATHE NEw liFE iNTO THE iCE Electriﬁcation

developing

evolutionary form, said Brett Smith of

the Center for Automotive Research

(CAR), but concurred with German that developments in gasoline engine

technology are almost revolutionary.

eﬀective

for

electriﬁcation.

consumers

Valeo’s

Matti

than Vint

noted that boosted and downsized engine technology is out there now,

but in the longer-term, port-fuel

injection,

direct

injection

and

Skyactiv-X

engine

mean

there’s

plenty of life left in combustion. Chi La

of IAV agreed – through variable compression

ratio

low-

temperature combustion, we’re going to see improvements in the thermal eﬃciency of gasoline engines.

This could prove to be more cost-

compression-ignition such as Mazda’s

“Autonomous vehicles won’t just

deliver that level of comfort. “The

society,” said the ICCT’s German.

a battery electric automated robo-taxi

services might have to go to fuel cell,

robo-taxis, will need to oﬀer a smooth

iMPACT OF FUTURE MObiliTy ON PROPUlSiON change transportation, they’ll change

Shared ride AVs, and autonomous

ride, with ‘unremarkable’ a common

adjective for future AV driving style.

They’ll also need enough power to

www.automotivemegatrends.com

technology is not viable right now for

service,” said CAR’s Smith. When does

ﬁve

years’

time.

battery

technology doesn’t develop, robo-taxi

or even highly eﬃcient gasoline-

state

hybrid systems. After all, as German

he noted, but we don’t know yet how

the explosion in miles travelled will

become

viable?

Solid

technology might make a diﬀerence,

much energy an AV requires now, or

noted, “AVs will increase driving, and

work against EVs.”

The future of freight

Freight – there’s an app for that Real-time digital load matching services and freight aggregator apps are a clear example of how connectivity can increase eﬃciency and generate revenue. By Megan lampinen

oad matching technology, Freight

as a Service (Faas), Trucking as a

Service (TaaS) – call it what you

will, this new approach to goods

transportation is rerouting the path

2018, the ability to make better

decisions on how freight moves goes

vehicle ﬂeets in 2018. On-demand

trucking will turn the current system

up noticeably."

of multiple phone calls and high

It's a simple idea: provide greater

Theresa Bui Revon, Director of IoT

admin levels on its head," observed

Strategy at Cisco.

companies.

transparency into the shipments that

involved a long-drawn-out process that

that are available to take them. Throw

ABI Research’s 2017 Industry Survey

frequently

friendly user interface and there is

disruptive trend at work in the

ahead

for

Negotiating

trucking

loads

has

historically

– despite best intentions – all too results

deadhead

journeys. That could soon be a thing of the past.

"We are seeing a substantial number of

players getting into load matching," observed FTR President Eric Starks. "Not only is Uber part of that equation,

but you are looking at the whole broker

community doing that. As we move to

need to be delivered and the vehicles in connected, real-time data and a

ranked

FaaS

the

primary

potential to streamline operations and

automotive industry. "FaaS will take

big names, big potential

delivery, fuelled by e-commerce’s

boost productivity.

"In addition to ride and bike-sharing,

TaaS will have a major impact on how operators start to manage their

over part of traditional short haul and exploding delivery needs, which are

largely based on the availability of ondemand service models," predicts

Susan Beardslee, Senior Analyst at

ABI Research. "Open and competitive cargo

markets

will

stimulate

Indian start-up Truckola hopes to cash in on the country's highly fragmented freight industry

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

“

The future of freight

Transportation has to change. It has to be much more eﬃcient, and last mile logistics needs to be optimised for quick and reliable delivery - Volker Mornhinweg, Head of Mercedes-Benz Vans

competition and help both private and

for-hire

fleets

absorb

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, J.B. Hunt

and Uber. For Uber, it was a relatively

unexpected demand, as well as level

simple step from taxis to trucks with

help address the 20% cargo capacity

companies with shippers, providing

out seasonal fluctuation. FaaS will

utilisation deficit in the US, resulting

in higher profitability."

Plenty of diﬀerent companies are keen to play. The list of disruptive

digital freight brokers is growing, but

some of the bigger players at the moment include Convoy, Trucker Path.

working conditions

Not everyone is as bullish on their

Uber Freight. The app links trucking

outlook for the impact of connectivity

visibility on available loads and their

President of Trucking Research, it all

ﬁnal destination. It oﬀers upfront

payment and an option to book with a simple click. Uber wasn't the ﬁrst to oﬀer this sort of brokerage service but

it did bring a big name to the

movement and could help change customer perceptions.

and FaaS. For Avery Vise, FTR's Vice

depends on the region. "I don't see

this as much of a disruption for the

established markets, like the US or

Europe. Here there is already a very

established infrastructure and plenty

of technology for handling spot market freight," he told Megatrends.

Notably, the US market is currently

operating at very tight capacity just

now and Avery estimates that most drivers are already fully utilised.

Instead, he sees this technology as a

means of "keeping the pressure on for innovation." Where it could have

signiﬁcant impact is among smaller

carriers and owner operators. "It does

open up the chance for these guys to

set their own rules on how they want

to operate. Rather like Uber in

passenger transport, truck drivers can

decide when to work, the terms

under which they work, etc," Vise

Transport as a Service (TaaS) will have a major impact on the way operators manage their fleets in 2018, says Cisco www.automotivemegatrends.com

explained. "You don't see much of

that in trucking, because the drivers need to make their truck payments. It

is not as if they just had the truck sitting around anyway, as Uber

drivers would their personal car.

“

The future of freight

FaaS will take over part of traditional short haul and delivery, fuelled by e-commerce’s exploding delivery needs, which are largely based on the availability of on-demand service models

However, in the longer term, this type

- Susan Beardslee, ABI Research

disruptive. It would allow for the supply

Himatsingka. The company is taking a

exist at all now. Quite possibly, the only

that's where the current players

of arrangement allows drivers to set

chain to tap technology that might not

Emerging markets

method that works in some of those

places is a phone call or even a load

Emerging markets are another story

requirements at a truck stop."

point real-time connected technology

has much greater potential, albeit

Start-up company Truckola is targeting

route planning on return journeys and

infrastructure," added Vise. "These

transport industry in India is highly

altogether. "In emerging markets, this

within the limitations of the overall

markets do not have the same kind of established third party intermediary

systems like the US or Western Europe.

In those cases, it could be very

board, where people just post load

limited to retrospective analysis, with no

predictive analysis. However, at some

could allow for much more eﬃcient

the Indian market in particular. "The

searching for cargo opportunities.

fragmented, with numerous very small

grand vision. Once that happens we can

"Incorporating more technology is our

players. What we attempt to do is

have

Founder and Chief Executive Raghav

more eﬃcient," he added.

organise

it,"

explained

From taxis to trucks: Uber Freight was launched in May 2017, matching trucking companies with shippers

operate. Today, it's all on a phone and

Truckola

real

time

data

vehicle

movement and the operation becomes

conditions of their work."

relatively low-tech approach to start, as

Automotive Megatrends Magazine

The future of freight

OEM involvement

change. It has to be much more

"With dispatch systems, you need to

At some point, the CV manufacturers

logistics especially in urban regions

your ﬂeet. In order to create this

eﬃcient in the future, and last mile

themselves may become directly

needs to be optimised to satisfy the

like this. Sandeep Kar, Chief Strategy

reliable delivery," he explained. To

involved in truck connectivity services

Oﬃcer at IoT solution provider Fleet

Complete, believes they will have to.

“

demands of consumers for quick and make logistics more eﬃcient and

always

digitalisation

companies, or partner with them, so

that they can tap into the revenue

stream," he pointed out.

demand will be in an hour from now,

(IoT)

overall demand volumes may slow. "In are trying to acquire some of these

need to be able to predict where the

two hours from now, three hours from

to be a part of the Internet of Things

this kind of environment, the OEMs

eﬃciency, you need to rely on data. You

need to understand the market. You

intelligent, vans of the future will need

As vehicles are used more eﬃciently,

ﬂeets will require fewer vehicles and

create eﬃciency in the way you operate

too.

Mornhinweg as

one

ﬂagged

the

megatrends signiﬁcantly impacting

now, in order to make sure that you're occupied,"

explained

Liad

Itzhak, Vice President and Head of

Mobility at HERE. "On top of that, you

the company’s business and its

need to know where the supply is."

environment changes, you either

Many

customers’ businesses. "When the evolve or disappear," he conceded.

companies

developing

their

have

own

been

dispatch

I don't see this as much of a disruption for the established markets, like the US or Europe. Here there is already a very established infrastructure and plenty of technology for handling spot market freight - Avery Vise, FTR

Kar paints a worrying picture for those

"And so we are evolving from a

systems, but many smaller players

truck is travelling from San Francisco to

transportation solutions, and are

this sort of investment. "These guys

that miss out: "Imagine a Peterbilt

Los Angeles, and the freight load board service it is using is from a company

manufacturer to a provider of holistic

thinking far beyond our core product."

that has been acquired by Volvo. What

The Mobility Dispatch

transmission begins to overheat? The

Navigation specialist HERE is putting

if,

some

point,

the

truck's

service will ﬁnd a mechanic in the area that can ﬁx the problem but it won't be

directed towards a Peterbilt dealership.

It will be a Volvo one."

This also applies to last-mile logistics. Volker

Mornhinweg,

Mercedes-Benz positioning

Vans,

for

Head

this

actively trend.

"Transportation in general has to

www.automotivemegatrends.com

its own twist on the approach with a

lack the ﬁnancial resources to back don't have the R&D, they don't have

access to the market data to see the

full picture of demand and supply in

order to create eﬃciency," Itzhak told Megatrends.

This

what

HERE

Mobility brings to the table with its

fresh application of its expertise. The

dispatch solution, which provides

Mobility Dispatch solution, a real-time

utilisation

company

recently

launched

The

ﬂeet utilisation and optimisation

service

that

uses

advanced

tools such as demand prediction, ﬂeet and

smart

zone

management. "These are the kind of

toolsets that they lack at the moment,

algorithms for demand prediction.

and this helps level up the smaller

insight and analysis to maximise each

as the larger ones in the way they

Speciﬁcally, it harnesses Big Data for

transport opportunity.

players to put them on the same level

operate their ﬂeet," he added.