M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 by Automotive World

M:bility | Magazine Q1 2019

CEO exclusive: ZFâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s shift from product to service An Automotive World publication

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

Published in December 2018 by:

Welcome... …to the Q1 2019 issue of M:bility magazine. The traditional business model of designing, manufacturing and selling a car is changing. Whether that model is ‘under threat’ or simply ‘evolving’ depends on your place in the chain, and the investments required to fit in. While many still desire to own a vehicle, the expectation is that – particularly in urban hubs – dwindling convenience and rising costs will wither that attraction. In place of the privately owned car will come a myriad of new mobility options, some bearing the familiar badges of household automotive names, and others as fresh faces in a new market.

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The idea is that fleets of shared autonomous vehicles and other last mile solutions will plug the gaps in mobility underserved by public transport. Be it through reluctant acceptance or bullish confidence, household names have made moves to adapt, gradually diversifying from the competencies that had fuelled their initial success. Even centenarian mega supplier, ZF Friedrichshafen, has embraced a new age of software and electronics alongside its expertise in transmissions.

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The trend has also seen the revival of brands seemingly destined for the history books: Fisker Automotive, famous for producing the Karma supercar, was recently reborn as a mobility company. Chief Executive and ex-Aston Martin designer Henrik Fisker is confident that a second stab at luxury EVs and a ‘unique’ autonomous shuttle has come at the right time.

Editor: Freddie Holmes

All of these trends are set to change the usual flow of business, affecting not only how new vehicles are designed and developed, but also sold. With the future of the brick and mortar dealership thus brought into question, it is anything but ‘business as usual’ in the automotive industry.

Freddie Holmes Editor, M:bility Magazine

CEO & Managing Director: Gareth Davies

Contributors Axel Schmidt Dan Sperling Jack Hunsley Josh Wickham Martin Kahl Megan Lampinen Xavier Boucherat Production: Anmol Mothy

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

IN THIS ISSUE q1 2019

Automakers get on board with in-car Wi-Fi

‘Waymo’s not on our radar’ – Henrik Fisker on the future of premium shared mobility

Why OEMs should fix, not abandon, the dealership experience

Can cities afford the future of mobility?

From mission-critical to passenger comfort: wireless connectivity prepares for step change

From product to service – ZF gears up for future mobility

In future, the autonomous car may have its eye on you

Red handed – connected car ‘threat analytics’ could catch cyber attackers in the act

Could fewer crashes lead to lighter cars?

The ECU diet: heterogeneous computing could save power, weight and space in the vehicle of the future

Evolving EVs demand a passive safety rethink

The three revolutions: our best hope for a sustainable transportation future?

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

18 22 12 56

30 An Automotive World publication

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

Automakers get on board with in-car Wi-Fi Where cars and trucks were once accepted as a blackspot, a connection to the internet has become nearly essential for new vehicles today. With future model cycles in mind, automakers are targeting the rise of digital natives â&#x20AC;&#x201C; young car buyers looking to continue the connected experience once inside the vehicle. By Freddie Holmes

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

In-vehicle Wi-Fi appears to be the next stomping ground, a trend that is being facilitated by mobile network providers and the rise of the ‘eSIM’, an embedded chip that need not be removed from the device in question like a traditional SIM card. General Motors has offered 4G Wi-Fi subscriptions through its OnStar service for a few years now, with Ford’s Sync platform providing a similar service. It may seem a frivolous endeavour, as most smartphone packages now come with a significant chunk of data included in the monthly fee. However, reports have shown that consumers across the board are far more inclined to use Wi-Fi data than cellular data – between 2.3 and 4.1 times more GB of data on average according to an August 2018 report from Strategy Analytics. The appeal also extends far beyond simply streaming music or making phone calls. A Wi-Fi hotspot within the vehicle would benefit all passengers, not just the driver. Today, some in-car hotspots allow more than ten different devices to connect, an attractive proposition to families. Consider also the vision of shared vehicles, where groups of data hungry riders want to avoid a dip in connectivity. Then there are improvements to the vehicle’s embedded navigation services and other apps within the infotainment system. In-vehicle internet browsing could become as seamless as any other connected device, too.

n-vehicle connectivity was initially a differentiator for auto brands, with those getting in early reaping the rewards of an early mover advantage. However, the competition soon caught up as connectivity shifted from being a ‘bonus’ to a ‘must-have’.

Jacques Bonifay, Chief Executive of Transatel

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Automakers manufacture a device – the car – and being a service provider is not in their DNA

Terra incognita For those in the automotive industry, the mobile network space can be a confusing collection of acronyms and relationships. A mobile virtual network enabler (MVNE) should not be confused with a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO), for example, nor a mobile network operator (MNO). MNOs such as AT&T, T-Mobile or Verizon, for example, provide the underlying mobile networks, whilst MVNOs are the next tier down the chain and do not run their own

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infrastructure. MVNEs – the ‘enablers’ – offer business infrastructure solutions required by MVNOs such as billing, operations support and back-end services. Paris-based MVNE Transatel is pushing to become a major facilitator for automotive connectivity, and recently landed contracts with the likes of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). As the largest MVNE in Europe, Transatel has focussed primarily on consumer devices such as smartphones and laptops, but the vehicle is becoming a firm target.

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

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As well as launching a telematics system for all FCA cars across the European Union, the company will provide a global cellular connectivity solution to Jaguar and Land Rover cars in Germany, Italy and the UK. This will enable internet browsing and navigation services from the vehicle console, as well as on-board Wi-Fi. As the MVNE, Transatel will provide and manage the service, handle customer and retailer relations and support, and oversee the payment process for data bundles. Vehicles will come with three years of connectivity, with 500 megabytes per month financed by JLR initially. Much like a smartphone data plan, users can top up and buy additional data from Transatel if the monthly allowance is hit early. At the end of the three years, the consumer can then decide to renew the subscription and pay a monthly fee. It is an interesting dynamic for the automotive industry, which continues to find new sources of

Automakers want control, and do not want to be dependent on mobile operators who would otherwise capture most of the value

revenue once a vehicle has been sold; buying a new car is far from a one-off payment today.

From automaker to mobile operator Transatel is a relatively unknown player in the automotive space, and it is interesting that the majority of automakers are not forming close partnerships with primary mobile network operators. But as Jacques Bonifay, Chief Executive of Transatel, tells M:bility, automakers are “moving away from the major operators” in order to achieve independence. “They want control, and do not want to be dependent on mobile operators who would otherwise capture most of the value. OEMs want to manage all those data flows, and thus need control of the car’s network.” This element of control spans a number of areas, one of which is revenue. “As a car manufacturer

you only want one SIM card in the car, which is fully optimised and under your control,” he continues. If the OEM owns the data, it can then be sold on. “If an insurance company wants to know how someone drives in order to adapt monthly premiums, you want to be able to monetise this data.” Just as automakers are voicing plans to become ‘mobility providers’ as opposed to simply ‘vehicle manufacturers,’ Bonifay throws in a third dynamic: “We are convinced that car manufacturers will become mobile operators. When you look at the market of the connected car, you see that there is a big trend in this direction.” He highlights Audi, which is working with Dublin-based Cubic Telecom to offer in-vehicle data plans. Globetouch, another MVNE, is working with General Motors to expand OnStar’s international footprint with a single network. Then there are Transatel’s deals with FCA and JLR.

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

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“It is far more efficient to have your own car network, to develop and integrate it once and then deploy globally with a simple connectivity agreement,” explains Bonifay. This is relatively new territory for the world’s major automakers, but other trends such as leasing and more recently, ride-sharing, have helped with the transition. “Automakers manufacture a device – the car – and being a service provider is not in their DNA. This is changing now as they lease new cars, think about car-sharing and are starting to offer Wi-Fi on board.”

Don’t get stung But as with most forms of connectivity, Wi-Fi can also be brought in as a third party device by the consumer. Off-the-shelf devices can be plugged into the 12volt socket inside a car to instantly create an internet hot-spot. Data packages can be purchased directly by the consumer, and

there are a raft of options available from well-known players such as EE, O2 and AT&T. Automakers will be hoping to sway consumers against these WiFi ‘dongles’ and instead toward an embedded solution in order to tap recurring sources of revenue. However according to experts, the cost to end consumers could be surprisingly steep regardless of the provider. Derek Viita, Senior Analyst at Strategy Analytics, observes that many consumers are unaware of the data limits or overall cost of in-vehicle Wi-Fi. “When consumers generally hear ‘Wi-Fi’ or ‘Wi-Fi hotspot’ they envision either public or home Wi-Fi without data limits,” he says. “Unfortunately, within the car this is not the case.” Chris Schreiner, Director of InVehicle User Experience (IVX) at Strategy Analytics, shares similar concerns. “Data limits on invehicle Wi-Fi would not support

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Ten years ago you had no idea of the number of applications you would have on a smartphone. Today you have no idea of the number of applications that will be available within the car in a couple of years consistent usage of streaming video, as only a few hours of usage per month would use up all allotted data,” he says. Transatel will cap its data plan with JLR vehicles at 500 megabytes per month during the initial three-year contract, but Bonifay suggests this may be extended. “The global trend is that data usage is going to increase, and if you don’t stream video, it’s enough… If you do start to use the connectivity for video, then it’s probably not enough.” Looking ahead, Bonifay estimates that by 2019 most high-end vehicles globally will be equipped with on-board Wi-Fi, with the rest of the fleet in major markets following suit by 2021. “Ten years ago you had no idea of the number of applications you would have on a smartphone. Today you have no idea of the number of applications that will be available within the car in a couple of years.”

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

‘Waymo’s not on our radar’ – Henrik Fisker on the future of premium shared mobility Various players are establishing mobility services around the connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE) megatrends. Recently reincarnated from its previous life as a luxury EV manufacturer, Fisker Inc. believes there is a gap in the market for a premium offering. Freddie Holmes caught up with Founder and Chief Executive, Henrik Fisker, to find out more

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

t the tap of a button, your ride from the coffee shop to the airport has been confirmed – a ticker on the smartphone displays an approximate arrival time, and a pin highlights the exact pickup location. With little more than a whirr from its electric motors, a shuttle soon glides to the side of the road and opens its bay doors. There’s no driver in sight, or steering wheel, and its open plan layout gives the option to sit or stand. It’s a short trip, but there’s plenty of room so you take a seat. Passing by bus stops teeming with flustered travellers, the shuttle comes to a halt outside of the departures terminal. It’s been a breeze, and you even managed to get some work done on the way. This is a popular concept, and surprisingly is not the specific vision of Waymo, Uber or any of the other familiar ride-share names that have been pumping money into the segment; the shuttle in question is being developed by Fisker Inc., the exautomaker that recently rebranded itself as a ‘mobility and technology company’.

It is a significant shift from the firm’s heritage in manufacturing premium sports cars. Previously known as Fisker Automotive, the brand’s only production model, the Karma, launched back in 2011. Much like the Tesla Model S, it quickly garnered a cult following due to its powerful yet silent powertrain. “Fiskers don't make noise when they start up, just so you know,” touted rapper Childish Gambino in a single released back in 2013. By 2014, however, Fisker Automotive had gone under following supply issues with its battery pack manufacturer, A123 Systems. Fast forward to 2018, and Fisker Inc. is developing its own solidstate batteries, and has scheduled a second attempt at a premium electric vehicle (EV). Due to launch in 2020, the EMotion is a fully electric four-door luxury coupe with nearly 800bhp and a 400-mile driving range. While the EMotion will undoubtedly take the lion’s share of media attention, it is future mobility that has Founder and Chief Executive, Henrik Fisker, excited. As he puts

it, automakers will not be able to cut it in a world of shared mobility if building cars is their only offering. “All car companies today will have to change their business model if they are going to survive long term,” he told M:bility. “As a car company, the audience you can attract will be far too small if you only make passenger cars in the future. We will still have private vehicles, but there will also be a menu of other mobility options that we will either be tempted – or forced – to use, because of regulations.” Much of this comes down to the idea of optimising ‘last mile’ travel. Congestion and pollution has led many cities to discourage private vehicle use within city centres, and it is proving increasingly difficult to reach the heart of a city. Then there are the needs of locals, who may not need or be able to own a car. Ride-share services have helped to offer an alternative, as have escooters and dockless bicycles. However, there are also those that will be travelling on business and expect more of a high-end

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Those people who eventually exit their Bentley – or Fisker EMotion – would then want to get into a more luxurious choice of transport instead of sitting in an ugly fridge on wheels with a cheap plastic bench. Our idea is to oﬀer our customers that last mile of mobility with a Fisker experience

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 experience. It is this segment that Fisker has in mind, and it is pushing the idea of premium mobility on demand. “People today have a choice between buying the cheapest model right up to a Rolls-Royce or Bentley,” he explains. “Those who eventually exit their Bentley – or Fisker EMotion – would then want a more luxurious next choice of transport instead of sitting in an ugly fridge on wheels with a cheap plastic bench. Our idea is that we should offer our customers that last mile of mobility with a Fisker experience.”

The Fisker experience The connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE) megatrends have been thrust into the marketing plans of most major automakers, along with a slew of start-ups looking to grab a piece of the action. This could all be interpreted as little more than

toothless spiel, but follow the money and it becomes clear that it is being taken seriously. In March 2011, Bill Ford, Chairman of Ford Motor Company, spoke about how his vision had changed from “how do we sell more cars and trucks” to “what if all we do is sell more cars and trucks.” Since then, the automaker has made a gradual transition toward becoming ‘Ford Mobility Company’, with its Chariot ride-hailing programme rolling out in several markets. In December 2016, Volkswagen created MOIA, an in-house mobility services company tasked with investigating alternative and ‘attractive’ solutions. “Even though not everyone will still own a car in future, MOIA can help make everyone a customer of our company in some way or another,” said then Group Chief Executive Matthias Müller at its launch. Daimler’s car2go and BMW’s DriveNow car-sharing services are in the process of merging to consolidate resources. General

Motors has formed Maven, a peerto-peer service in which owners can rent their cars out when not in use. In October 2018, Elon Musk described Tesla’s long-term strategy for shared mobility as a “combination of Uber, Lyft and Airbnb.” Then there are a slew of other mobility services formed by start-ups like Didi (China), Enjoy (Italy) and Grab (Singapore) to name but a fraction of the market. According to the 2018 Bloomberg New Energy Finance report, the number of passengers using ridehailing apps globally grew by 28% in the second half of 2017, up to 769 million users. How, then, does ‘the Fisker experience’ break into what is an already crowded market? Enter the ‘Orbit’, a shared and autonomous shuttle concept based on a purpose-built driverless platform. Power is provided by inwheel electric motors, which free up space in the cabin to create a wide, flat floor like a lounge. The shuttle will be fully autonomous, with no steering wheel or option

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 for human control. Riders will be able to hail an Orbit via a smartphone, stopping only when necessary and avoiding the delays public buses or shuttles often suffer when stopping to wait for potential passengers. “It recently took me 20 minutes to get a rental car from Chicago airport because the bus had five scheduled stops even though there was nobody waiting, with only five people on one giant bus,” notes Fisker. “It’s another example where you want five of these small autonomous shuttles that stop only when you need them to. People will get to where they need to go more quickly and efficiently.”

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The audience you can attract will be far too small if you only make passenger cars in the future… There will be a menu of other mobility options that we will either be tempted – or forced – to use

Deployment is targeted at geofenced routes initially – such as university campuses, hospitals and airports. Eventually, the Orbit should be able to operate within areas of ‘smart cities’. The idea is to create a genuinely attractive service; there’s no reason a shuttle can’t be affordable, classy and über comfortable. Indeed, Fisker suggests that the Orbit will have a smoother ride than a Rolls-Royce. “Looking at some of these other shuttles that have come out, there are none that I would actually want to get into, or go home and tell my neighbour about,” he says. “We have created a last mile mobility choice for the type of people who would like the Fisker experience.” He notes that “one of the largest technology companies in the US” is interested in deploying Orbit shuttles at one of its corporate campuses. “It has several buildings spread over a large campus, and Orbit shuttles could run the whole day. You could just stop it with your app and hop on board to reach the next building,” Fisker muses. “That was when we realised that there’s maybe a much bigger market for the Orbit.” There has also been interest in China, with one of Fisker Inc.’s

investors eyeing the possibility of operating Orbit shuttles at certain college campuses. By cutting out the cost of a human driver and high fuel bills, operators could run more shuttles, more frequently, and improve the efficiency of the operation. This is true for various applications today, such as a ‘hotel hopper’ outside an airport and a shuttle that ferries students

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around a university campus, or employees around a business park. “Even to run just one traditional minibus seven days a week, 12 hours a day, you need about ten drivers. This is extremely expensive, which means it is less convenient because high costs prevent several buses from running,” says Fisker. “Instead of running one bus with ten drivers, you can have five autonomous shuttles.”

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 Such shuttles could also be used within the airport grounds itself, solving a long-standing issue of underutilisation within existing fleets. According to Nick Smith, Fund Manager at the UK-based Airport Industrial Property Unit Trust, 90% of London Gatwick Airport’s airside vehicles are stationary at any one time. This is “both hugely inefficient and demands a vast amount of space,” he explains. “A much smaller pool of electric-powered autonomous vehicles would drastically cut costs, free up land, reduce emissions and improve safety.”

a huge market for us and quite frankly, I don’t really see any direct competitor at this point,” he affirms. “Somebody might pop up, and I’m sure they will, but we are not going into the basic public transport approach where it is simply about getting somebody from A to B as cheaply as possible… We’ll leave it to somebody else to fight that battle.” In April 2017, Waymo began a pilot programme in Phoenix, Arizona, that put real members of the public in the back seat of autonomous Chrysler Pacifica minivans. These

been adapted to shared autonomous mobility. The interior is not ‘social’ and space has not been optimised in the same way as the Orbit, he argues. The same can be said for nuTonomy, which has used Renault Zoe EVs, as well as the Nissan NV200 vans used by Drive.ai. “Our vehicles are purpose built, and we are tailoring them more to the premium segment,” he explains. “That’s one of the difficulties for all of these ridehailing services; they are essentially buying a vehicle that is designed for a private individual and trying to turn them into shared

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We are not going into the public transport approach where it is simply about getting somebody from A to B as cheaply as possible… We’ll leave it to somebody else to ﬁght that battle

Competition’s thin, for now Despite huge interest in shared autonomous mobility across the industry and beyond, Fisker is bullishly confident in the company’s competitive position. In fact, he sees little threat from even those deemed the leaders in shared autonomous mobility services. He is quick once more to highlight the Orbit’s ‘premium’ approach as the differentiator. “In terms of our vehicle, I see us leading what is a very unique segment. We are not deploying these shuttles randomly in a city; we’re deploying them on closed environments with set routes. I see

‘early riders’ have opted in, and can order a free ride from their house. Some go to the cinema, others commute to work or use it for the school run. On 31 October 2018, Waymo received the green light from California regulators to offer the service—without safety drivers— on public roads in the state. Singapore residents have also taken part in nuTonomy’s autonomous ride-hailing pilot, with free rides around the one-north business district offered to willing subjects. A similar programme is run by Silicon Valley start-up Drive.ai in Frisco, a suburb in Texas. But Waymo, says Fisker, is “not really on our radar.” He alludes to the fact that Waymo is using traditional minivans that have not

vehicles – but they were never designed for that.” The Fisker Orbit is no bigger than a minivan, but passengers can stand up whilst riding and there is no need to duck on exit or entry. “You’re not going to fall over each other,” says Fisker, a criticism he levels at current ride-share vehicles. Indeed, the company’s own research on existing programmes has found that riders often have to “crawl over each other” to get in and out of a vehicle. If passengers are in the rear two seats of a sevenseat vehicle, this also requires other passengers to get out. Owners of a three-door car will be familiar with this issue. “People don’t like having to do that, so we’ve designed a vehicle that

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

avoids it,” he says. “It is far more convenient, and that is our advantage: we’re not trying to convert a vehicle.”

It’s all about convenience Fully autonomous driving technology is generally presented as an opportunity to improve road safety by eliminating human error, the cause of most crashes. While this is certainly a part of the picture, the overall goal for the Orbit shuttle is to offer comfort and convenience. Fisker adds that the shuttle will always offer a smooth ride: a selfdriving computer does not have mood swings. “Think about the last time you took an airport shuttle; you have to hang on to these bars and the driver doesn’t care about the comfort of the passengers,” he says. “With an autonomous vehicle, we can programme it to offer a smoother ride than a Rolls-Royce. It can accelerate, brake and steer exactly the way you programme it to, and consistently.”

It is an interesting time for autonomous driving technology. While more companies than ever are dabbling in the segment, consumer sentiment remains a sticking point. Recent studies have shown that many consumers like the idea of features that can be engaged or disengaged at will, but very few would ride in a vehicle without a driver. According to the 2018 Cox Automotive Evolution of Mobility Study: Autonomous Vehicles, published in August, just 16% of consumers surveyed would be comfortable letting an autonomous vehicle drive them without the option of being able to take control. Many hope that by testing autonomous vehicles in perceivably ‘low-risk’ situations where speed and driving routes are restricted, crashes will be few and far between. Acceptance – and appeal – of driverless shuttles will grow as a result. The next few years will be crucial as investments continue to pour into pilot schemes and start-ups; those investments need to make big returns, and stakeholders will

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be loath to see autonomous mobility meet the same fate as some human-operated car-share programmes. For example, BMW’s DriveNow programme was recently axed in Stockholm, Sweden following dwindling demand and high costs stemming from congestion tax and parking fees. Autolib’s shared EV service in Paris has also been scrapped, with stories of chronic underutilisation. In many cases, vehicles were used as a refuge by the homeless. There are many challenges facing the roll out of shared autonomous mobility services, but Fisker believes the opportunities are sky high with the Orbit. “There are so many possible applications, and I believe our entire transport environment is going to change in the future… Partly because it has to – we have too much congestion and pollutant emissions – but also because people simply want to have a more efficient and enjoyable transport system.”

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

Why OEMs should fix, not abandon, the dealership experience With the rise of digitisation, changing buyer behavior and the emergence of new challengers, the automotive dealership is under pressure. But will it break, vanish, and give way for something entirely new? Not so, writes Axel Schmidt, Global Head of Accentureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Automotive practice, who argues that dealerships will remain the linchpin of the car buying experience â&#x20AC;&#x201C; but not in their current form

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

he automotive retail experience, which includes dealerships, needs fixing. Survey after survey reveals that the current retail model is failing buyer expectations, and automakers’ own numbers confirm these findings. Dealerships everywhere are struggling with fewer visitors, high staff turnover and slumping profits. In the US, for example, sales staff churn is now at 67%, and dealership profits halved between 2016 and 2017. Changing consumer needs are adding to the pressure; in a 2015 report Accenture highlighted how car buyers not only wanted a better digital experience, but even then, most were ready to complete the entire process online. OEMs appear to be unsure about how to react to this growing pressure. Should they break away from the current retailing model and start selling straight online, like some experts have suggested? Should they re-work the model, take over many, if not all of their outlets, and pursue a strategy of vertical integration? Or should they try to fix what is broken with dealerships right now?

Accenture’s view is that the latter option looks best, and that the dealership is here to stay. Almost every automaker should start by fixing the dealership experience first, and then create a new carbuying experience that fits consumer needs. A comprehensive, well-thought out retail strategy that has ‘new’ dealerships at its core will take any OEM a very long way – and will be more effective and less risky than most e-commerce or vertical integration plays.

Why dealerships are here to stay There are many surveys that suggest buyers are willing to shop for new cars online; a recent study by eBay stated that 63% of buyers surveyed were thinking about doing so. However, findings like these ignore an important role that the dealership plays. Buyers still seek ‘offline’ experiences in a dealership. They are keen to shop online, configure cars on the web, and some return to an OEM’s website to order and

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Automakers should start by fixing the dealership experience first, and then create a new car-buying experience that fits consumer needs

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pay once they have made a final decision. But in between these steps, car buyers like to find a showroom, speak to an expert, and ‘get the feel’ of a car before they take it for a test drive. Oddly enough, this tends to be especially true for those who are very digital-savvy. An Accenture survey found that so-called ‘digital natives’, who do most of their shopping online, were likely to visit their car dealer more often than their more conservative ‘digital laggard’ peers: 60% of the digital natives stopped at their dealer more than twice before buying a car, compared to only 47% for the more conservative customers. If these numbers really reflect current buyer behavior, then dealerships are anything but obsolete. Automakers have another reason to keep their brick-and-mortar stores open – e-commerce can be a double-edged sword. If car buyers shop online, they mostly do so because they think they can get a better price. Research by Accenture has found that nearly half (43%) of digital natives surveyed would consider purchasing a new vehicle online if prices were cheaper than those at the dealership; 50% of digital laggards said the same. What, then, about the huge online success of Tesla, which relies heavily on e-commerce, and received 300,000 pre-orders for its Model 3 online before customers had the chance to even see one up close? A key factor was that the company had a monopoly on a sought-after electric car, and sold it – almost exclusively – through the one channel that made sense. In other words: Tesla’s e-commerce retailing model is successful because Tesla buyers do not have a choice, and alternatives from other brands in the electric vehicle market are still limited.

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

“ © Audi

Dealerships are anything but obsolete

Why vertical integration is risky Dealerships are failing buyers’ expectations, but they are also still key to almost every auto retail strategy. Which is why, for most OEMs, the question must become: what can be done to fix the broken dealership and offline experience? The answers are fairly clear. Today’s car buyers are ‘channelagnostic’; they expect a meaningful, personalised service when they visit an OEM’s website and a dealership. In fact, they don’t differentiate between the OEM and a dealer, and all their expectations are being shaped by their experiences as customers of other, highly digitised industries. Which means they’d really like to see a well-integrated, multi-channel play that provides whatever they seek, whenever they seek it, at whichever touchpoint they are. That’s exactly why so many experts think that automakers should pursue vertical integration, or in other words, sell their cars

directly by cutting out the dealers. It’s also why several of the OEMs are already trying just that. The Volkswagen Group already runs its own flagship stores for some of its brands, and it has made it very clear that it would like to sell more cars through its own factory outlet, Autostadt, near its headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany. Then there is Mercedes-Benz Cars’ flagship store on 11th Avenue in Manhattan, New York City. This is a sensible approach because it does give OEMs far more control of the overall buyer journey and experience. But it’s also a high-risk strategy: if an automaker carries out too little vertical integration, it will see little to no results. If it does too much, it might upset dealers and soon find itself without the network of dealerships, which, again, is critical to sales and therefore business success. Then there are the costs that come with setting up and running physical stores. Industry estimates show that setting up a decent-sized auto store near a mid-sized city can

easily require upwards of US$10m (€8.55m), and operating costs of one store have been reported to add up to over $4.5m per year. Do OEMs have that kind of budget whilst making sky-high investments in connected, autonomous, shared and electric vehicles? If Volkswagen, one of the more cash-rich manufacturers out there, were to replace only 20% of its roughly 9,000 dealerships with wholly-owned VW stores, the company would have to put aside US$18bn just to set them up, and another $8.1bn to run them for a year. That seems like too big a line item for even the most cash-rich automakers.

Why revising retail first is the way to go The best solution in terms of securing a seamless customer experience across all channels without taking the financial risks of vertical integration lies in the close collaboration between automakers and their dealers. For example, some premium OEMs have begun to

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Digital solutions should also be used to enable new mixed reality experiences in and outside of the store

upgrade the dealership experience by bringing in new staff that are more consultants than sales reps – like BMW with its ‘Product Geniuses’, or by adding aftersales offerings like call-center services, which are run by the OEM (Volvo being a good example). These strategies fix many of the things that are wrong with the current dealership experience, and at relatively low cost. They also enable automakers to test, enhance, and scale new ways of doing business, which they can then put into place beside their existing channel retail strategy – all while enjoying the cost- and cashflow upside of the channel retailing

model. That’s not to say that this kind of strategy is without risk. Relying on third-party dealers might create challenges for the future, when a huge share of revenues and profits will come from selling, tracking, and enhancing data and digital services. These kinds of revenue sources generally don’t lend themselves well to channel retailing.

First steps So, what should automaker C-Suites do next? While there are many answers, a general recommendation is to first review the current retailing strategy and experiences that come

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from it. Then, make a commitment to collaborate with dealers and support them to fix what is broken. Brands should shape an ‘engage everywhere, any way’ strategy for jointly driving customer engagements through a wide variety of channels, including new store formats. Digital solutions should also be used to enable new mixed reality experiences in and outside of the store – think augmented reality (AR) product experiences, digital service offerings for buyers and owners, and more. Finally, automakers should build a data-driven retail culture both within the company and the dealers it works with.

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Can cities afford the future of mobility?

ÂŠ Bosch

The future of mobility is often presented through a utopian lens; a landscape of clean, safe and efficient roadways, where transportation will be seamless and affordable. Cities will be awash with new services and technologies, and the decades of investment behind these advances will have finally paid off. While that vision may well be possible from a technological standpoint, governments and private investors need to buy into the ideal. There is also a risk that behind the scenes, public funding will be put under serious pressure. By Freddie Holmes

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f all goes to plan, the benefits of launching autonomous, electric and shared vehicles are clear, but recent research has cautioned that this could in fact create a drain on government finances. According to July 2018 research from Deloitte, titled Funding the future of mobility, vehicle-derived revenue in the US could fall significantly by 2040 if measures are not taken. The issue is also relevant on a global scale, with most developed economies seeking to sculpt their own smart cities. Today, governments derive a significant amount of funding from transport-related fees. Parking penalties, tolls, fuel tax and license registrations, for example, all make valuable contributions, but those pools of revenue are at risk of drying up in future. At the same time, the pressure on urban mobility is only expected to grow; Deloitte forecasts a US$7.5 trillion shortfall in global road infrastructure funding by 2040. While this is some time away, it does highlight an important issue: significant investments have been made by automakers, suppliers and municipalities worldwide, partly for societal benefit, but also for business reasons. As such, returns need to be seen across the board one way or another.

“There are many regional variations, but the way we fund transportation in the public sector is generally built on the existing transportation system, which is car and fossil fuel dependent,” Derek Pankratz, a Research Manager with the Center for Integrated Research at Deloitte Services, told M:bility. “Many of the dynamics of that transportation system are changing: electrification of vehicles, the eventual emergence

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Autonomous and shared vehicles are in theory utilised more and need to park less

of autonomous vehicles and increased use of shared mobility. Those three forces in convergence will push down today’s sources of funding.”

Parking Inner-city parking brings in serious money for most developed municipalities. In 2016, New York City generated nearly US$1bn from parking fees and fines, for example. Spaces are often hotly contested, prompting the value of each spot to soar. Full utilisation of multistory car parks is almost guaranteed during peak hours. But in a world where drivers become riders, the need for public car parks could fall. “Estimates vary pretty widely on the demand for parking, but in a lot of cities it is a real revenue generator,” said Pankratz. “Autonomous and shared vehicles are in theory utilised more and need to park less, or at least need to park less in expensive, dense urban areas.” Funding could also fall as a result of new technologies that can prevent drivers from being stung by parking fines. Both private and public car parks typically set a minimum hourly rate for access, which must be paid even

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if the driver is stationary for just a few minutes. According to a 2017 study by traffic information expert INRIX, US drivers overpay US$20.4bn a year, while in the UK and Germany overpayments total £6.7bn (US$8.7bn) and €4.4bn (US$5.1bn) respectively. Connected cars could work with infrastructure in future to provide an accurate fee for the time they are parked. “Imagine if your vehicle understands the parking rules and auto-renews your parking if you haven’t returned in time, while notifying you in advance to ensure you leave before breaching any maximum stay restrictions,” says Ozgur Tohumcu, Chief Executive of Tantalum, a connected services provider that aims to ‘automate’ parking through its Pay.Car service. A loss in revenue is almost guaranteed, he suggests. “By automating parking through the connected car, fines can be made a thing of the past.”

Shared and electric vehicles Then there are electric vehicles (EVs), which will gradually eat into the amount of gasoline and diesel fuel purchased at the

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forecourt. Deloitte estimates that by 2040, gasoline demand could fall by 30% in the US due to improving fuel economy standards and rising demand for EVs. Annual fuel tax income would fall by US$10bn as a result. As it stands, 86% of the US Highway Trust Fund comes from fuel taxes – bringing in around US$36bn each year. Many EVs on the road today are part of a ride-share fleet, run by operators that have eyed an opportunity to reduce operating costs and bypass potential congestion or pollution charges within a city. However, Paris-based EV ride-share programme Autolib was recently axed after seven years of operation, with chronic underutilisation and soaring expenses seeing its contract (originally running to 2023) cut short. Local media had reported

that the vehicles were widely used as a refuge for the homeless, and often found with smashed windows and dirty cabins. Despite this, Renault believes it stands a better chance and has effectively launched a replacement service. In partnership with rental service ADA, the Moov’In.Paris scheme will see a fleet of EVs – 100 Zoes and 20 Twizys – hit the streets. Renault is certainly bullish, stating in September 2018 that “the number of vehicles put into service will quickly increase to follow the customer demand.” Parked in specific authorised locations, vehicles can be reserved with a minimum €3.90 charge for access (€0.39 per minute, with a minimum ten minute rental period). Users are exempt from parking and charging fees.

The nature of this service differs to that of a hail-a-cab model, popularised in the US by the likes of Uber and Lyft, but both approaches are expected to continue gaining traction. The effect of this is simple: fees that would typically be associated with private vehicle ownership will fall. “If more people use shared mobility, vehicle registrations and the number of people obtaining driver’s licences starts to dip,” said Pankratz. “We’ve already seen in the United States and some other markets a kind of peak in younger people getting driver’s licences.” According to Deloitte research, income from vehicle licenses and registrations could fall from US$41bn in 2016 to US$29bn in 2040. While ride-sharing is far from the accepted norm today, the trend could begin to erode the appeal of owning and running a

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If more people use shared mobility, vehicle registrations and the number of people obtaining drivers licences starts to dip

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vehicle. However, it is difficult to gauge the overall success of future mobility trials so far, and thus forecast how the trend will progress over the next couple of decades. Not all schemes have been successful. BMW’s DriveNow service was scrapped in Stockholm, Sweden, and Ford’s Chariot Service was temporarily suspended in October 2017 after failing inspections from California regulators. The service was also criticised for following existing public transport routes and creating congestion on otherwise efficient journeys.

Autonomous vehicles Between 2016 and 2040, revenue derived from traffic enforcement is expected to fall from US$6bn a year

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It is not an obvious or foregone conclusion that these technologies and services will yield something that is better for everyone

to US$2bn. Part of this is due to the potential reduction in driver error as certain elements of driving are delegated to a computer. Driving speed can be set to match the local limits, and dangerous manoeuvres that could result in a fine should be reduced. This is of course

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dependent on the capability and error-rate of the self-driving system in question, among other factors. “In theory, autonomous vehicles will not run red lights or drive above the speed limit,” noted Pankratz, “so all of that traffic enforcement revenue goes down too.”

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 It is almost impossible to forecast quite how legislation in the US will have developed by 2040, and there are various hypothetical elements that could make or break the planned deployment of socalled robo-taxis. Will the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) levels of automation remain the benchmark for which functions are certified, for example? If all goes to plan there could be a huge shake up in city transportation thanks to autonomous driving technology. Deloitte’s experts believe all eventualities need to be planned for and carefully considered sooner rather than later. “It is not an obvious or foregone conclusion that these technologies and services will yield something that is better for everyone,” mused Pankratz. “They certainly have that potential, but it will take active management by all participants – the public and private sector, regular citizens – to make sure that we achieve that better outcome.”

Utopia or dystopia? Despite the uncertainty, there are positives to take from these future mobility trends. Revenue from tolls is expected to continue rising, for example, as vehicle miles travelled increase; vehicle utilisation is expected to be higher than ever, and then there is the simple effect of urbanisation. “There’s just a natural increase in demand,” said Pankratz. “Part of it may come from people shifting away from public transportation and towards ride-hailing or ridesharing, but for many other reasons that’s not necessarily an optimal outcome.” Michael Flynn, co-author of the report and Deloitte’s Global Financial Advisory Public Sector

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Shared mobility, autonomous and electric vehicles are just over the horizon… It is critical for governments to think seriously about the implications, and to start planning for those changes now

Leader, agrees. “As mobility becomes more convenient and less expensive with shared autonomous vehicles, people will travel more. When you’ve got more readily available autonomous vehicles, the elderly, the disabled and younger generations are able to get around far more easily, and that contributes to more travelling.” Based on its research, Deloitte proposes a handful of potential measures that could help cities work with the trends of the future. Usage-based charging could help to account for the drop in licensing fees, for example, and benefit from the rise in vehicle utilisation. Mobility data could be monetised to create new and potentially lucrative revenue streams, although privacy concerns could prove a sticking point. New public-private partnerships (PPPs) could also create longterm relationships between the public sector and private businesses to catalyse investment into cities. As Deloitte’s research argues, “the private sector can bring speed, efficiency, a drive

for innovation, and reduce the amount of upfront capital required to perform a project.” With so many variables in play and over such a broad time frame, this research is not intended to paint a concrete picture of how future mobility will play out. Instead, it is a pragmatic snapshot of how these business models and technologies must be paid for. “Shared mobility, autonomous and electric vehicles are just over the horizon. The timing is a little uncertain, and exactly how they’re going to play out is not completely clear, but it is critical for governments to think seriously about the implications, and to start planning for those changes now,” concludes Pankratz. “It needn’t be an apocalyptic situation, but it does require some fresh thinking and to be open-minded about some of the alternative mechanisms outside of traditional tax-based approaches.” “Savings and efficiencies are achievable, but there is a lot of planning required in order to get there,” adds Flynn. “The sooner cities start the journey to deliver that, the easier and more beneficial it will be.”

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From mission-critical to passenger comfort: wireless connectivity prepares for step change 5G could revolutionise the transportation landscape, but who's in charge of connecting the car to the mobile network? Megan Lampinen investigates

ireless communication could prove pivotal in the establishment of smart transportation networks. Cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) connectivity promises to benefit everything from traffic flow and congestion to emissions levels and safety statistics. It could also pave the way for autonomous vehicles (AVs) further down the line and

offers a path forward that is compatible with 5G when it eventually arrives.

Current estimates suggest browsing speeds could be up to 20 times faster than today’s mobile broadband.

Consumers increasingly expect to find the same connectivity they experience at home and with their phones when they are travelling in the car, and 5G – following on from 3G and 4G – promises a faster, more reliable connection than ever.

For the past 15 years Qualcomm has been building up its expertise within the automotive domain; it was the first company to enable 4G LTE in the car in 2014, and the first to provide an automotive hot spot with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth in the car. With 5G it could be aiming for another industry first.

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Cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) connectivity promises to benefit everything from traffic flow and congestion to emissions levels and safety statistics

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"We are now experiencing an evolution as the industry moves from a car that needs someone to control it, to autonomous driving. This innovation is based on technology, and one of the most important is wireless access technology," explained Riccardo Calabro, Director of Product Marketing at Qualcomm. Managing this wireless communication effectively is no easy task but it could prove a lucrative one and Qualcomm is pursuing it aggressively. For this particular supplier, it also offers a means of remaining relevant in a

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Fully autonomous driving will need the support of technology that can serve missioncritical services, and this is something that 5G can do

rapidly changing environment. The company has been working to expand its expertise in wireless communication for mobile phones into new realms, and automotive is a primary target. Today, there are 40 active connected car programmes using Qualcomm technology, with an increasing focus on C-V2X. Qualcomm's first C-V2X solution, the 9150 C-V2X chipset, will power commercial products which will be available in 2019. Earlier this year the company teamed up with PSA Group to demonstrate how cars can benefit from C-V2X technology complementing advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) sensors. On display at the In&Out Digital Mobility event in Rennes, France, the vehicles showcased their ability to alert each other of potential roadside hazards or distressed vehicle situations. The company has also conducted C-V2X trials with other project partners around the world, including Ford in the US, Nissan in Japan and Audi in Germany. More are to follow in 2018 in different regions.

5G or bust The automotive industry has previously adopted 3G and 4G to enable connectivity in the car, serving up internet access, enhanced infotainment content, and emergency assistance services such as eCall and ERAGLONASS. These networks have also facilitated services like Waze for navigation or shared mobility schemes like Lyft and Uber. All these offerings have been taking advantage of the modem in the car, but there's a game-changer coming in the form of 5G. The fifth generation mobile network will introduce dramatic improvements in data throughput and latency, opening up many new use cases. "The evolution to 5G will basically bring us to the next level of communication capabilities, enabling communication not only to the internet but also between cars, between car and infrastructure, and car and pedestrian," elaborated Calabro.

Qualcomm's initial C-V2X product is based on Release 14 LTE (4G), which complements vehicle sensor input. Autonomous vehicles rely on several different kinds of sensors to detect and infer their surroundings and road conditions. Sensors such as radar and camera systems are essential but are limited by their line-of-sight (LOS) operation. Rel-14 C-V2X direct communication adds to this by providing 360-degree non-LOS (NLOS) awareness, extending a vehicle’s ability to detect farther down the road – even at blind intersections or in poor weather conditions. This is particularly useful given that today’s camera sensors often struggle with heavy rain or snow. "These capabilities will all be possible thanks to the PC5 interface, which does not need any operators subscription or network coverage," added Calabro. Importantly, the product is also designed to work with the evolution to 5G. Trials are already taking place around the world, with widespread implementation

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 expected within the next few years. By that time, the network's higher throughput and reliable, low latency communication should enable cars to share information in pivotal areas such as advanced path planning. For instance, a car travelling along the road will be able to receive information in real time from other cars, which can also collect information with their sensors. All this information can be shared, providing a real model of the world around the car. Other vehicles will receive this information and can then understand the environment more clearly and make better-informed decisions.

Cross-industry collaboration Qualcomm was one of the founding members of the 5G Automotive Association (5GAA), a cross-industry organisation of companies from the automotive, technology, and telecommunications industries (ICT). The scope is to develop an end-to-end connectivity solution for intelligent transportation and smart cities, with a focus on communication solutions. Interest has been strong and it now boasts more than 85 members, many of which gather every three months or so for discussion.

potential new leader in vehicle connectivity and 5G, perhaps nowhere more so than at Qualcomm. NXP seemed an ideal fit to Qualcomm's automotive ambitions. The giant chip supplier, which previously acquired Freescale, enjoys a strong position in vehicle connectivity and ADAS. The combined company was expected to have annual revenues of more than US$30bn and leadership positions in global automotive semiconductors, ADAS, infotainment, safety systems, body and networking, powertrain and chassis, secure access, telematics and connectivity. However, the proposed deal fell through in July 2018.

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The ďŹ fth generation mobile network will introduce dramatic improvements in data throughput and latency, opening up many new use cases

Beyond mission-critical services, the capabilities of 5G will also help transform the wider passenger experience as the industry moves towards autonomous driving. The idea is that as the driver becomes the passenger, he will have a wider range of options available to pass the time. Vehicles may start to include multiple screens and entertainment systems will be able to download movies in a matter of seconds. "One of the things that 5G will enable is a multi-gigabit data rate. This will bring a lot of data to the car that will be consumed in a different way," Calabro told M:bility. "The data pipe will enable new ways to utilise time in the car, as we will not be driving anymore."

The group believes that 5G will facilitate the arrival of autonomous vehicles, but it isn't necessarily essential to their functioning. "Fully autonomous driving will need the support of technology that can serve mission-critical services, and this is something that 5G can do," said Calabro. "This doesn't mean autonomous vehicles will only happen with 5G, but it will be a key element to make them successful."

Without NXP Qualcomm's bid for leadership in mobile communications will have to be effected without the help of NXP's assets. The proposed NXP acquisition had raised expectations across the automotive industry of a

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"The rationale for the NXP acquisition was to accelerate our strategy of growing into adjacent opportunities where mobile compute was becoming ubiquitous. This strategy remains unchanged," Chief Executive Steve Mollenkopf assured analysts in a recent earnings call. Over the past couple of years, the supplier has sought to leverage the industry dynamics of mobile everywhere, and with good results. In key industries, such as automotive, its pipeline of awarded design wins has expanded dramatically. So far this year it stands at US$5bn. "That is up US$2bn from January as automakers and Tier 1 suppliers leverage the strength of our roadmap and begin gearing up for 5G-enabled cars in 2021," Mollenkopf added.

From product to service â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ZF gears up for future mobility Since taking over as CEO, Wolf-Henning Scheider has instigated considerable change at ZF to prepare the company for Next Generation Mobility. Martin Kahl sits down with the former Bosch and Mahle executive to find out how emerging trends are transforming even 100-year-old firms

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ÂŠ ZF

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or so long, business has been about the product. Build it, and they will come. So long, however, is becoming so old fashioned, as consumers turn away from buying products in favour of buying into services and experiences.

It’s a trend underpinned by eradefining technology that has fundamentally changed the way people interact, consume media and even travel. 15 years ago, there was no Skype; 14 years ago, there was no Facebook; 11 years ago, no iPhone; nine years ago, you couldn’t take an Uber; and Alexa only started answering back in late 2014. These new household names are relatively light on product, and heavy on service – where there is a product, it’s generally there to facilitate a service. The key theme here is that big business, over-confident of the longevity and relevance of its product, has been disrupted by innovative start-ups with a keen eye on technology and unburdened by corporate heritage. But disruption is not the exclusive domain of the start-up. In their book, ‘The Inversion Factor’ (The MIT Press), Bernardi, Sarma and Traub emphasise the need for companies to shift their strategies from product-first to needs-first; that is, instead of selling customers a product, companies should work out what it is their customers need, and how they can fulfil that need. It’s a trend that is being felt throughout the automotive industry. For such a traditionally product-centric sector, transformation from productfocused to needs-first involves a major change in mind-set. After all, automakers and suppliers are global businesses with fixed assets making tangible products; for the automotive industry, it’s always been about the product.

Disruption – it’s not just for start-ups That a century-old mechanical engineering company should be promoting its expertise in artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous driving highlights the impact of this needs-first way of doing business, and it’s what has been guiding senior leadership at ZF Friedrichshafen. The company celebrated its centenary in 2015 and now, under the leadership of Wolf-Henning Scheider, who became Chief Executive in 2017, a company with a deep heritage in intricate gearing technology is being repositioned as a leading player in the future of mobility. “We want to supply full systems solutions for the future of mobility, and that’s why we’ve called our strategy Next Generation Mobility. It’s not just three words, it’s really our motto and our theme,” Scheider tells M:bility. Indeed, at the 2018 IAA Commercial Vehicle Show, ZF announced a fiveyear, €12bn (US$13.8bn) investment in e-mobility and autonomous driving. The timing of the announcement was significant: the company believes the commercial vehicle sector will produce the first business cases for autonomous driving. “The logistics chain is very complex, with many people involved, and yet companies are struggling to find truck drivers,” notes the former Bosch and Mahle executive. “Here we see considerable demand for autonomous solutions. There is also a growing business case for people movers.” Introducing such a change in a company’s corporate direction and ensuring that this new way of thinking runs throughout the organisation is a major undertaking. “Obviously, this needs

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close co-operation and very thorough discussion with the leadership team and the associates,” says Scheider. “We also surveyed more than 1,000 people to get input and impressions, to understand exactly what our leaders’ perceptions were of the company.” Once the new direction for the company had been decided, the next stage involved outlining it to the company’s 146,000-strong workforce. “And that’s important,” he continues. “We really want everybody to be engaged in this. It’s a very motivating and challenging target, and it’s great that everybody understands it.” Furthermore, the company has the full support of its owners, he notes, referring to the Zeppelin Foundation, which in turn is managed by the City of Friedrichshafen, ZF’s home town in southern Germany.

From cogs and oil to bits and bytes Drivetrain technology, gearing and transmissions – these all conjure up images of shiny metal dirtied by oil. For the best part of two decades, academia, media and industry have debated the question of whether data is the new oil, yet the automotive industry’s century-old dependence on oil is declining, if not drawing to a close. Meanwhile, its almost total dependence on data is now becoming clear. At the same time, the advent of electrification brings with it a reduction in moving parts, and a simplification of vehicle powertrain componentry. And the sharing economy brings in a whole new way of thinking about products. Such change requires an appropriate response from those who depend so heavily on the status quo. As the phrase goes, if you fail to prepare, then prepare to fail. Scheider’s ZF, however, is being prepared for industry change.

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We want to supply full systems solutions for the future of mobility, and that’s why we’ve called our strategy Next Generation Mobility. It’s not just three words, it’s really our motto and our theme

“We have a very strong tradition for innovation. It’s in our genes, and engineering remains important,” insists Scheider. “We’re also capable of complex manufacturing tasks. Throughout its history, and in the last 20 years in particular, ZF has shown a strong ability to change.” He cites the successful integration of a number of companies, notably TRW, Sachs and Lemfoerder. Other investments or acquisitions include Ibeo Automotive, doubleSlash and joint venture work with e.GO Mobile. “It helps that our team is used to change, and that they embrace it.”

The joy of being driven As the industry evolves, so too does the nature of the solutions that a company like ZF is asked to

quote for and supply. Longer term, there will be a considerable difference between engineering for traditional driving pleasure, and engineering for nextgeneration mobility; torque, power and handling will take a back seat in the world of autonomous ride-sourcing, where the vehicles will be expected to deliver journeys that are at least unremarkable. The average robotaxi passenger will be uninterested in the vehicle’s acceleration, braking and cornering, wanting simply a ride that gets them to their destination feeling refreshed and relaxed. “The challenges have changed significantly in recent years, no question,” agrees Scheider. “Mobility must respect environmental needs and safety, and we need to help cities come up with solutions to issues such as congestion, in preparation for

the future. At ZF, we also see ourselves as an enabler for these stakeholders. “It goes beyond the framework of maybe ten, 20 years ago. Some of the changes in technology requests are evolutionary, like our chassis safety components. These are very important, but the most significant changes are in electronics, automated driving for new mobility solutions, and in powertrain.” For autonomous journeys to be unremarkable, a key area of development is the elimination of motion sickness. Even leading proponents of autonomous vehicles – including former BMW executive Dr Ian Robertson, speaking to this publication – have cited motion sickness as a major area of concern. No-one will get into a vehicle they know makes them feel nauseous during or after the journey.

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“ © ZF

The logistics chain is very complex, with many people involved, and yet companies are struggling to ﬁnd truck drivers. Here we see considerable demand for autonomous solutions. There is also a growing business case for people movers

“This is a core domain for ZF,” says Scheider. “It’s essential for autonomous driving that the vehicle motion control is even smoother than in a manually driven vehicle. We have a systems group for vehicle motion, and we have long experience and technological expertise in this area. We’ve even invented a next-generation control unit called cubiX, which acts as the domain controller for the overall chassis. The domain interfaces with the automatic driving system to make the ride smooth and comfortable, and prevent you suffering motion sickness.” Part of ZF’s strategy is to transition from the joy of driving to the joy of being driven, a shift which leaves no room for motion sickness. “Many consumers suffer from some degree of motion sickness. It’s one of the core elements that must be solved. And we are right on it.”

Level 3 in doubt In terms of autonomous driving, ZF develops not only the technology for motion control, but also the ‘eyes’ of the vehicle; the company claims to be the world’s leading supplier of automotive cameras, and a technology leader in LiDAR through its company Ibeo. Both technologies will be essential for SAE Level 4 and 5 autonomous driving. The fatal crash in Tempe, Arizona in March 2018, when a pedestrian was struck and killed by an Uber test vehicle in autonomous mode, raised serious questions about technology that relies on being able to bring the driver back into the loop at short notice. As such, the viability of Level 3 is very much in doubt. During the discussion, Scheider never mentions Level 3, only Levels 4

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and 5. When asked about this, he explains the company’s two-sided approach to the development of autonomous drive technology. “We’re continuing to develop Level 1 and 2 ADAS functions, and these might evolve to Level 3. But at the same time, we’re developing the complex top end solutions for Levels 4 and 5. “They’re very different systems,” he continues. “For Levels 4 and 5, you need huge computing power, which we have with ZF ProAI. But you don’t need ZF ProAI for ADAS functions.”

Part of the MaaS revolution At its Technology Day in 2018, ZF announced investment in a manufacturing joint venture with Aachen, Germany-headquartered

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The E.Go Mover, an electric 15-passenger micro shuttle electric vehicle start-up e.Go Mobile. The e.Go Moove JV will build the E.Go Mover, an electric 15-passenger micro shuttle which will eventually also be able to drive at Level 4 autonomy. The JV is ZF’s clearest demonstration yet of its intention to be a part of the Mobility as a Service (MaaS) revolution, and underlines the company’s commitment to nextgeneration mobility. “There are some very nice mobility services in the field right now, but MaaS comes with some obvious challenges,” says Scheider. “Take for example carsharing: the car is not always where you need it, and then when you reach your destination, you often can’t get rid of that car. This creates a business case for autonomous driving, and in light vehicles that’s where I see it coming in first. But it will be a step by step process – it’s unrealistic to think that we can jump straight into fully autonomous driving in urban areas, but I could envisage

autonomous valet parking, with the car driving itself slowly to a nearby parking area.” In January 2018, ZF announced an autonomous valet parking programme in China in collaboration with Baidu, Nvidia and local car-sharing company Pand Auto. ZF’s contribution to the initiative is the vehicle sensor suite and its ProAI technology.

More Silicon Valley than Bodensee? ZF ProAI is a high-power computing and AI solution, developed with input from Nvidia. ZF has also been highlighting its expertise in areas such as blockchain. Two very different technologies, of course, but these and others have much more of a Silicon Valley tech feel than a Southern German engineering vibe, yet Scheider believes they are an essential part of the company’s future.

“We’ve realised that we cannot survive without them! They’re the enabling technologies that we need. It might seem strange for the transmission department to be asked to develop a new blockchain business case, but we have a dual operating system and we formed new teams within teams, with external input where necessary. They have a clear target, and one was to build a blockchain technology business case for the vehicle to be able to pay for services such as parking, refuelling or recharging, without any human interaction.” The result was Car eWallet, a business which ZF has recently spun off as a new Berlinbased start-up with a high degree of freedom to develop blockchain business cases for mobility services. “And it was a similar case with AI,” continues Scheider. “A separate team within our dual operating system was using AI technology to build up software algorithms for automated driving in complex situations. And it was very clear

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The challenges have changed signiﬁcantly over the last years, no question. Mobility must respect environmental needs and safety, and we need to help cities come up with solutions to issues such as congestion, in preparation for the future

that traditional algorithms are no longer sufficient for managing this complexity. We just needed to go for AI, and the team did it.”

It’s not about the product It looks increasingly as if nextgeneration mobility will be less about physical product and more about well-crafted solutions that

meet customers’ needs. Clearly, ZF is thinking about its corporate customers, but it’s also considering the end-customer. If, once it’s on the road, the users of an e.Go Mover autonomous microshuttle find the experience relaxing and otherwise unremarkable, ZF will have done its job well. Likewise, the recipients of packages delivered by the pilot of an autonomouslyparked parcel van, or the occupant of a car equipped with

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Car eWallet technology, who simply expect a good service that works well. Product will still be a part of the future of mobility, but consider the product to be redefined as mobility itself. Success or failure will depend on whether companies continue to focus on product, or reposition themselves to be able to identify their customers’ needs, and deliver the services they want and desire.

ÂŠ Affectiva

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

In future, the autonomous car may have its eye on you The concept of reducing crashes caused by human error appears to lend itself well toward autonomous driving. However, recent trends would suggest that drivers have become over-reliant on technology that is underdeveloped. Freddie Holmes investigates how new facial recognition technology could help to engage drivers that are tired, distracted or simply bored

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

utonomous driving technology will dramatically improve road safety by eliminating the dangerous traits associated with human driving. Despite the risks, people often get behind the wheel whilst tired or intoxicated, and frequently check their phones for social media updates. By delegating at least partial control of the vehicle to an ever-alert computer system with faster reaction times and a broader range of hazard detection, crashes that result from these human factors will fall. At least that is the idea. In May 2016, a Tesla Model S driver died after colliding with a semi-truck in Florida. Whilst in Autopilot mode, a semiautonomous highway comfort feature, the driver had failed to respond to prompts from the system to take control of the wheel. An investigation into the event found that he had been watching a Harry Potter film at the time. More recently, a pedestrian was killed by a self-driving test vehicle on the streets of Tempe, Arizona. The Volvo XC90, which was retrofitted with Uber selfdriving technology, failed to recognise Elaine Herzberg as she crossed the road at night, leading to a fatal head-on collision. Data obtained from video streaming service Hulu later showed that the safety driver behind the wheel had been watching an episode of The Voice. As local police put it, the event was “entirely avoidable.” This is not a new issue; drivers have been exploiting partially autonomous systems on public roads for years. Back in 2015, Chris Schreiner, a Director at Strategy Analytics, suggested that consumers widely viewed Autopilot as just a “gadget” that is “nice to show off to your

friends.” A quick internet search will show various Tesla owners overriding built-in safety protocols. Anything from a water bottle to an orange has been used as a prop to replicate a hand on the wheel, and to fool the system into believing the driver is paying attention to the road. Some videos show drivers moving to the backseat whilst on a highway, and even asleep whilst in crawling traffic. Indeed, many drivers today overestimate the capabilities of their highway pilot systems, now

Smile, you’re on camera To get around the problem, an advanced form of facial recognition technology is being developed to keep an eye on drivers. The topic of driver monitoring has been around for decades in the trucking industry in order to understand the cause of crashes and to deter drivers from making potentially dangerous decisions behind the wheel. Traditional camera systems simply observe, and cannot interact with the driver, but one

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A quick internet search will show various Tesla owners overriding the built-in safety protocols of Autopilot. Anything from a water bottle to an orange has been used to fool the system into believing the driver is paying attention to the road

offered by several brands including Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and Cadillac. Rather than reducing instances of distracted driving, the way in which these systems are being used is, arguably, exacerbating the issue. There is a discussion around creating features that drivers can trust, and feel comfortable using, but the question is now turning to: can drivers be trusted to use these technologies?

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company is developing what it calls ‘artificial emotional intelligence' (Emotion AI) in order to recognise when a driver is distracted or tired, and make proactive decisions to prevent an incident. Boston-headquartered Affectiva was borne out of the MIT Media Lab in 2009, and recently penned a deal to integrate this technology within ‘Pepper’, a humanoid developed by SoftBank Robotics.

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We want to identify the diﬀerent levels of drowsiness for the simple reason that it matters what happens next

This camera-based software is also being used to understand the emotional and cognitive state of human drivers, and particularly those using semi-autonomous driving features. “These systems are not aware of how humans interact and react with them,” says Gabi Zijderveld, Chief Marketing Officer at Affectiva. “We believe this very often causes superficial and sometimes ineffective interactions with technology.” The Emotion AI technology is hardware agnostic, and Affectiva does not develop its own cameras or microphones. The idea is to allow automakers and systems integrators the freedom to work the technology into their vehicles as they see fit. Camera placement is a key factor that can vary from vehicle to vehicle, for example, as it can affect the perspective of a driver’s face. The system works by first identifying, isolating and tracking a human face. Vision-based algorithms then analyse features and skin tones,

from which facial expressions can be identified. Different combinations of facial expressions allow the system to derive human emotions and states. At a more complex level, the system then measures different ‘intensities’ of these expressions – how tired, or how distracted a driver is, for example.

Wakey wakey Drowsiness is a common problem for professional drivers, both in the passenger car and commercial vehicle space, who often spend long hours behind the wheel in monotonous traffic. Those that travel the same route each day can also become complacent, and when it comes to testing autonomous vehicles, over confident in the system. Robert Molloy, Director of the National Transportation Safety Board’s (NTSB) Office of Highway Safety, describes his work as the analysis of human performance, or

‘investigating why people make errors’. Speaking to Automotive World in 2016, he highlighted that many professional drivers believe they are skilled enough to handle fatigue – a dangerous train of thought. “The problem is that none of us are really great at determining when we’re too fatigued,” he warned. With the help of technologies such as advanced facial recognition, spotting a tired driver could turn monitoring into a proactive tool. Algorithms are trained to look for tell-tale signs of tiredness, and can tailor alerts to the driver depending on the perceived severity of the issue. “Today, we can detect whether someone is showing signs of drowsiness, but we want to identify the different levels of drowsiness for the simple reason that it matters what happens next,” explains Affectiva’s Zijderveld. “If I yawn once that suggests I am only mildly drowsy, and major alerts should not be going off. If I’m beginning to yawn frequently and

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Those with a stake in autonomous driving must ensure that it is not only the technology that can be trusted, but also the humans overseeing its operation

my head is nodding slightly, I may be moderately drowsy and require a gentle alert or reminder,” she suggests. “But if I’m beginning to fall asleep, then it is time for me to pull over and stop driving – that may require a more severe warning.”

Keeping tabs But it is not all about tiredness. Indeed, the technology is also used to monitor enjoyment, laughter, frustration or sadness. Distraction is one of the most dangerous cognitive states, however, and Zijderveld suggests this issue is becoming more commonplace as semi-autonomous driving systems proliferate. This is true not only for products on the market today, but also beta systems that are being refined on public roads. Along with Arizona and Nevada, California has become a hot bed for testing activity, and as of 4 December 2018, a total of 61 separate players hold a permit to test in the state. The number of companies successfully applying for such permits around the world has been climbing steadily, and automakers are pushing out advertisements for safety drivers as fleets expand. In May 2018, Waymo announced plans to add up to 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivans to its self-driving fleet in

the US, a significant expansion of its 600 strong Pacifica fleet at the time. With public road testing set to soar, Affectiva is pushing for greater awareness of the dangers associated with an inattentive safety driver. “There is a big angle around driver monitoring, especially when you’re testing autonomous vehicles with a safety driver,” says Zijderveld. “Much of this automation is intended to make driving safer, but research has shown that it is in fact causing more distraction. Our technology can help to monitor a safety driver in a semi-autonomous vehicle, and gauge whether he or she is alert.” Adding a degree of automation presents a new degree of flexibility for drivers. The issue is now not only that drivers are looking at screens whilst behind the wheel, the underlying challenge is keeping drivers’ eyes on the road and brains engaged. “With semi-autonomous vehicles you still have a steering wheel and a driver who should be alert enough to take over control at any given notice. That hand-off between the driver and the system is a major problem,” continues Zijderveld. “Our technology is software based and doesn’t require any special sensors or wearables, and can help to identify whether a

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normal driver, or a safety driver testing an autonomous vehicle, is truly engaged.” Affectiva has been working with Renovo Auto, a Silicon Valley firm that has developed a platform for safety driver monitoring. The system can detect driver distraction, and features a series of thresholds for escalating levels of driver assistance. Prolonged periods of inattention lead to audible prompts, whilst continued distraction instructs the autonomous driving system to gently reduce speed and illuminate the brake lights to warn following vehicles. If the situation worsens and the driver shows no sign of response, the hazard signals are applied and the vehicle is brought to a stop. Immediate alerts can be sent back to HQ, and data from the trip can be used for driver training. Safety drivers need to stay alert during long periods of inactivity, as do consumers when using the latest highway pilot technology. According to Affectiva, nine people are killed and a further 1,000 injured every day in the US due to distracted driving. Around 6,000 deaths result each year due to drowsy driving. Those with a stake in autonomous driving must ensure that it is not only the technology that can be trusted, but also the humans overseeing its operation.

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

Red handed – connected car ‘threat analytics’ could catch cyber attackers in the act Connected and autonomous systems promise to improve vehicle safety, but does the risk of a cyber attack undermine this benefit? By Josh Wickham

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s vehicles become increasingly automated and connected, the challenge for automakers becomes reassuring consumers that it is safe to make the switch. However, the threat of cyber attacks could make this difficult. Application protection firm Arxan Technologies aims to put its customers one step ahead of cyber criminals. It has been active for 18 years, and for the last five has specialised in protection software for connected vehicles. Automotive, says Rusty Carter, Vice President of Product Management at Arxan, is a rapidly growing industry which is made “massively vulnerable by the risks associated with being connected.” With 125 million cars with connected capabilities expected to ship worldwide between 2018 and 2022, according to a recent report from Counterpoint Research, there is an obvious need for sophisticated protection software.

cyber attacks often cannot identify the source, leaving them unable to combat it. Speaking to M:bility, Carter explained that Threat Analytics is also a key component of protecting a connected vehicle. “It is really an instrumentation of all of the security controls and detections that we put into an application,” he added.

The threat and the solution Although connected and autonomous vehicles could be hugely beneficial to the safety and efficiency of transportation, their functionality is highly dependent on computerised systems and the internet, making them a target for malicious activity. “A connected vehicle has a large attack surface, and we’ve found that the biggest vulnerability today is the user’s interactions via a mobile device,” advised Carter. “We have

steering and acceleration could be controlled remotely. “Criminals are looking for opportunities to take advantage of the fact that these applications and devices are connected to the internet,” Carter said. “For years now, people have tried to plug into the electronic control unit (ECU) and manipulate a vehicle through a wired connection. As these become connected over the network, all those vulnerabilities are exposed.” Carter emphasised that cyber attacks on connected vehicles represent a substantial threat moving forward. Part of the risk is that a car could be hacked whilst being driven, the dangers of which were illustrated back in 2015 when Wired journalist Andy Greenberg was left stranded on a St. Louis highway. Although cyber crime has the potential to cause harm to drivers, passengers and other road users, Carter suggested that it is more likely for cars to be hacked and stolen whilst stationary.

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As these applications and the devices are connected to the internet, criminals are looking for opportunities to take advantage of that

Arxan, says Carter, is ready to fulfil that demand through its Threat Analytics programme, which launched earlier in 2018. Threat Analytics is a ‘monitoring service’ that provides users with visibility into cyber attacks, allowing them to pinpoint the source of the threat and optimise their defences to stop it. The programme gives users realtime data showing exactly how attackers are targeting an application. Without such protection in place, victims of

customers that use Threat Analytics to protect a connected vehicle that uses a smartphone as a key, which offers hackers an entry point.” Research into connected vehicle threats has been ongoing for some time now. At the 2015 Black Hat USA security conference, one demonstration involving a Jeep Cherokee displayed the ease at which vehicles with connective capabilities could be hacked, and how systems such as braking,

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Consumer concerns Connected and autonomous vehicles will be a new and potentially intimidating concept for many consumers. For those that have been in control of the vehicle for their entire life, it will be challenging to convince them to relinquish some, or all, of this control to a computer. However, Derek Viita, Senior Analyst for

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 Strategy Analytics’ Automotive and Mobility UX team, explained that: “With the proliferation of smartphone ownership and usage, consumers increasingly understand the privacyconvenience trade-off with such devices.” He stated that as a result of this, consumers’ privacy concerns tend to become “deprioritised” during the purchase process, though they are re-prioritised if a breach occurs. Akshay Anan, Executive Analyst for Kelley Blue Book, told M:bility that consumers are typically not concerned about the risks of a cyber attack. “Potential cyber attacks can be a deterrent for consumers considering purchasing connected cars, but the reality is that most consumers do not think about the topic unless it is in the news. Consumers do expect to be safe from threats, though they are far more concerned about issues such as bad driving.” However, as automated vehicles become more common, the conversation around cyber security is expected to heat up; this could represent a barrier to sales, and challenge the automotive industry’s marketing efforts. “There is a lack of awareness from the consumer’s side and this is something that car manufacturers need to change,” said Carter. “It really is one of the biggest challenges for manufacturers today. Many consumers are inherently fearful of connected driving, and at Arxan we want our programmes to reassure them.” Carter compares the situation currently facing automakers to that which PayPal faced when it launched two decades ago. “Everyone was afraid to use an internet service to make payments, but PayPal took the opportunity to start educating

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Many consumers are inherently fearful of connected driving and at Arxan we want our programmes to reassure them

customers about the level of security they put into the solution,” he said. He believes that it was because of this reassurance that consumers finally began to develop trust in the service, and is something that

Arxan plans to replicate. Carter believes that in order to convince consumers to invest in connected and autonomous vehicles, automakers should be more vocal about the risk of cyber attacks, and the steps that are

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In the autonomous space, so much attention has been put on the safety of connected vehicles, in terms of the car’s ability to detect hazards and so on, but we are missing the discussion around the security aspect of a vehicle

being taken to combat them. “Most automotive manufacturers have been silent on the issues of cyber crime today,” he explained. “While these companies are developing ways of protecting their vehicles, they really should be talking about it in order to gain the trust of the consumer.”

A collective effort: the fight back against cyber crime In January 2017, Hyundai began working with Cisco, a leader in IT and security technology, to develop a cyber security platform for its connected cars. In September 2016, Volkswagen set up its own company to develop cyber security protection called Cymotive. A month prior, a group of researchers had found a way to clone key fobs used for the wireless entry systems of millions of Volkswagen Group cars sold between 2000 and 2016. As an increasing number of critical driving systems become automated – such as steering and braking – the threat to vehicle security will rise. Because of this, stakeholders will

need systems in place that can react to threats as soon as they arise, instead of developing solutions after the fact. “The most important thing is to be able to detect issues quickly and react before they become a problem,” explained Carter. “Our application protection needs to be able to remediate an attack as this is what will ultimately minimise the impact and the losses incurred.” National governments are also becoming involved in the fight against cyber crime. Both France and Germany have proposed parameters for how to collect and use data generated from smart vehicles in order to protect consumer privacy. In 2017, the UK government’s innovation agency, Innovate UK, issued funding to the 5*StarS consortium (formed by Horiba MIRA, Ricardo, Thatcham Research, Roke and Axillium Research), to launch the Automotive Cyber Security through Assurance project. Governments in the US, China and Singapore have also introduced policies to address cyber security risks. In the US, Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao has voiced concern about the potential for autonomous vehicles to be hacked and weaponised. In 2017, the US Security and Privacy in Your (SPY) Car Act was

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introduced to enhance controls on cybersecurity and privacy to all vehicles. The bill dictates that all critical and noncritical software systems must be separated; it also requires vehicles to be able to instantly detect, stop and report attempts to steal driving data or take over vehicle controls. However, Carter believes that administrations around the world are still not doing enough to combat cyber crime. “One of the biggest challenges is getting legislators to understand some of the concepts of how attacks take place, and so worldwide, we haven’t seen regulation on this,” he said. “In the autonomous driving space, so much attention has been put on safety, in terms of the car’s ability to detect hazards and so on, but we are missing the discussion around the security aspect of a vehicle.” Although connected and autonomous features promise to improve safety and comfort, past hacks have raised questions about their vulnerability. Cyber security has long been a concern for those with any connected device, and as these optional extras become standard, automakers must ensure that new vehicles do not become a target for rogue cyber activity once

ÂŠ SSAB

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

Could fewer crashes lead to lighter cars? Autonomous vehicles may mean no more crashes, but passive safety is non-negotiable for future vehicle design. Freddie Holmes speaks to SSAB to find out why

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

uman error is linked to the vast majority of road collisions – 94% according to US safety regulator NHTSA – and this has driven the industry’s push for autonomous driving. Take away the potential for distraction, drowsiness, inebriation and the myriad other factors associated with human driving, and crashes should decline. This could mark a significant step change for an industry that, for the better part of a century, has been developing stronger, more impact resistant vehicles. Is such a focus on crash safety still necessary for fleets of low-speed autonomous vehicles operating within geo-fenced areas, such as dedicated city streets or corporate campuses? Instead, super-strength metals could be cut out and replaced with significantly thinner, lighter materials.

Is this just fantasy? It is not the first time the subject has been brought into question. Bill Russo, an ex-Vice President at Chrysler and current Chief Executive of business advisory firm Automobility, suggests that automakers may no longer need to meet the crash requirements of a high speed Autobahn collision when designing cars for autonomous urban travel. “For urban mobility, cars are overengineered,” he remarked at an event in Shanghai. Holly Lei, a Senior Vice President at lightweight materials supplier Covestro, agrees. “Having just one

autonomous vehicle on the road is not sufficient in order to transition away from today’s high strength materials,” she said. “But if every vehicle is autonomous, then it will not be necessary for body parts to have as much strength.” For materials suppliers, it is indeed an interesting proposition, and none more so than for global steel producers that have dominated vehicle bodies for decades. As it stands however, cars are still driven manually, and passive safety tests are not getting any less stringent. Olof Carré, Head of Product Management for Docol products at SSAB, is confident that steel will retain the lion’s share of

In theory, the appeal is clear: that extra weight loss could facilitate significant jumps in electric driving range, more compact vehicle bodies that take up less space, and even the opportunity to house digital screens within body panels.

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For urban mobility, cars are over-engineered

Steel takes the lion’s share of most passenger car bodies

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The overall feeling today is that passive safety remains extremely important. The best solution for that is steel

materials used in light vehicles for the foreseeable future. As he puts it: “The overall feeling today is that passive safety remains extremely important. The best solution for that is steel, and it’s been that way for many decades.” That said, SSAB is considering the long-term implications of autonomous developments. In June 2018, the steel producer demoed a lightweight steel frame developed for an urban autonomous vehicle made by Finnish start-up Sensible 4. Grades of Docol Steel – SSAB’s automotive advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) – helped the vehicle’s frame to meet weight constraints without impacting strength. Carré likens the potential ‘robocab’ experience of the future to that of a train ride: “You can just sit and eat your lunch, and take it

easy,” he says. This will influence how vehicle structures are designed in future. “You want more open space in the car, so it will be interesting from a steel point of view; the car may have longer sections of ultra highstrength steel to allow the car to be more like a living room or office,” he suggests. “We will continue using super highstrength steel in order to reduce dimensions and make the structure lighter.”

Risky business That said, it is still very early days for autonomous driving; Waymo only recently received a license from the California DoT to operate driverless taxis in the state, and for now, these will only be available to employees. Volkswagen has

announced plans to fully commercialise a fleet of Level 4 autonomous taxis in Tel Aviv, Israel by 2022, while US start-up nuTonomy has trialled a similar service in Singapore for a few years now. Ford is working with Baidu to the same end in China. While the outlook for autonomous driving has moved firmly into ‘when’ not ‘if’ territory, manually driven vehicles will rule the roost for years and decades to come. Most within the industry believe it would be naïve to assume otherwise, and that means efforts in crash structures must continue. “I’m not so sure that the requirements of passive safety will fall very quickly at all,” assured Carré. “There are still risks with autonomous driving vehicles, especially when combined with cars of today. Most people will still be driving themselves, and they

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“ © Euro NCAP

In the meantime, serious crashes will still take place and the body structure of vehicles must continue to be designed to reﬂect that

could be drunk, tired or distracted and crash into you.” It is also worth highlighting the midground of autonomous vehicles in which drivers are expected to monitor semi-autonomous systems such as Tesla’s Autopilot, Volvo’s Pilot Assist and Cadillac’s Super Cruise. Autopilot in particular has come under significant scrutiny thanks to a spate of crashes in recent years, some of which have proved fatal. It is not only the element of human error that comes into the equation, but also software malfunction. If the self-driving computer fails, a collision could be unavoidable and the consequences severe. This error could occur naturally, or as the result of a malicious cyber attack – both instances require that the vehicle retains a crash resistant structure. “There is a risk that the

computer may break down, or somebody may hack into the car and take control of it. Because of this, automotive manufacturers will continue to develop passive safety for a long time,” explained Carré.

Don’t cut out steel just yet Virtually all autonomous test vehicles require backup drivers to take control in an emergency, providing a final layer of safety. In a similar way, passive safety structures act as the fallback scenario in the event that a fully driverless car is unable to avoid a collision. The ultimate goal is to achieve an entirely crash-free society, which is being pursued on an

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international level via the Vision Zero initiative. In the meantime, serious crashes will still take place and the body structure of vehicles must continue to be designed to reflect that. Whether the material of choice is steel, aluminium or more exotic fibre-based structures, it is ultimately down to passive safety to keep occupants safe, regardless of the technology on board. World Auto Steel, the automotive group of the World Steel Association, has voiced a similar view. “It will take many years before all vehicles on the road have these technologies in play,” the organisation stated earlier in 2018. “Consequently, until every form of transport on the road is autonomous and connected, the need for passive safety will remain for the foreseeable future.”

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

The ECU diet: heterogeneous computing could save power, weight and space in the vehicle of the future While heterogeneous computing could help automakers to produce better and lighter electric and autonomous vehicles, it will require a change of mindset. By Jack Hunsley

ikening a connected vehicle to a computer on wheels has become a common analogy. With more connected features and autonomous safety systems, more computing power is being placed in the hands of the driving system. However, for an industry in which IT has never been a core competency, this transition raises interesting questions for the impact on vehicle architecture. New vehicles boast more computing power than ever, which has created a need for more electronic control units (ECUs) – in some cases upwards of 100 individual ECUs. However, there are already concerns that this architecture model may not be sustainable. “The number of ECUs just keeps rising,” explained Marques McCammon, Vice President at Wind River. “If we continue to just increase the number of ECUs in a car every time we want to add a new feature, at some point in time we will run out of space.”

This is in the crux of the problem. While at the moment the industry is still dominated by gasoline and diesel powertrains, once electrification becomes the norm both power and physical space in the vehicle will become precious commodities. Weight is also a significant concern; according to analysis from Frost & Sullivan in July 2018, the powertrain of a battery electric vehicle (BEV), with a 35.8kWh battery pack and a 100kW electric motor, can weigh nearly 125% more than a standard ICE vehicle powertrain, limiting battery range and efficiency. For autonomous vehicles (AVs), a 2018 report from the University of Michigan found that the added weight of sensing and computing subsystems limited powertrain efficiency and the amount of useable space in the vehicle. The study also found that such autonomous technology could increase energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions by between 3% to 20%.

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If we continue to just increase the number of ECUs in a car every time we want to add a new feature, at some point in time we will run out of space typically do,” said McCammon. “At the moment we only do it to align functions that are very similar to each other. What we need to do is combine functions that have absolutely no relationship: functions that have completely different methods of maturing and validation, timing

cycles and value propositions, and bring them together in one space to work in harmony.” This need for harmony is vital, especially with the industry rapidly advancing towards autonomous transportation. For example, while any bugs that

At Wind River the solution is believed to be simple: reduce the number of ECUs through the use of heterogeneous computing. However, making the transition will require a complete change of mindset in automotive. “Heterogeneous computing is not something that we as an industry

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We’re bringing software into the automobile and it brings with it a consumer electronics mindset

may occur when combining an infotainment unit with a radio may be harmless, the occurrence of a similar error when combining these systems with safety-critical autonomous technology could be catastrophic. “A window controller and seat controller could run on the same control module because they’re similar in what they do and how they function,” explained McCammon. “That makes some sense, but the notion of having a braking system and a window system on the same controller is foreign. Those are the kinds of challenges we’re looking at.”

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ACRUE Making this transition to heterogeneous computing is not a jump which can be made blindly. Therefore, in order to begin to tackle the problem Wind River has come up with a fourstep process known as ACRUE (Abstraction, Consolidation, Reuse, Extrapolate). “In the past, every piece of software that we brought into the car was intimately tied to the hardware upon which it sat and the applications that ran above it,” explained McCammon. “The first thing to do is to break those bonds through abstraction. After

What enables a healthy industry is the industry’s ability to create competition amongst its constituents

that, we can consolidate, and use virtualisation to have every function in the car believe that it’s in control when in fact it’s sitting inside of a box that’s catered and built especially for it.” The next stage – reuse – will then see older software recycled when new iterations are released. “The amount of software that we carry over is quite limited,” McCammon continued. “If we could get to a point where we reuse a considerable amount of that software, the same way that automakers reuse much of the content in a car, we can drive down cost and improve return on investment.” Finally, the ‘extrapolate’ stage would require an adoption of a consumer electronics mindset in regard to product lifecycle. “We need to look at other domains where software is more prevalent or has been a critical element of a value proposition for longer periods of time,” said McCammon. “In the consumer electronics space, everyone has been on that bandwagon for some time but the reality is that consumer electronics does not have the same rigours that automotive does. We need to look at other places where the critical nature of software delivery is a little bit higher.”

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 Change of pace Other industries such as aerospace made the switch to heterogeneous computing some 20 years ago, according to McCammon. Automotive, however, is lagging behind. “In the automotive industry we are very controlled and deliberate,” explained McCammon. “We do not typically release anything until we have proven, without a shadow of a doubt, that it has no flaws or weaknesses. But as we’re putting more computing power

using over-the-air (OTA) updates, the overwhelming majority of vehicles on the road cannot be altered remotely after they leave the showroom and instead require specialist assistance at garages and workshops.

New value While the benefits have been felt elsewhere, this is not to say automotive should instantly make the switch to a more consumer electronics friendly life cycle. Concerns, for example, revolve

What is needed therefore is an adaptation of the industry’s mindset. If, as some analysts predict, around 50% of a future vehicle’s market value will come from software, automakers need to take control of how this software is delivered to them. By asserting control and leveraging competition, automakers could manage their bill of materials in a more cost-effective manner. “What enables a healthy industry is the ability to create competition amongst its constituents,” said McCammon. “That’s not to say that

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While the pace of change that we see now is much faster than anything that automotive has seen in its history, by everyone else’s standards it is still slow

inside the car, the automotive industry’s and the software industry’s pace of product development has become grossly dissimilar. These two cultures are clashing.” This evolving mindset revolves around the different expectations of the consumer electronics market compared to automotive. For example, while it can be reasonably expected that a new version of any major smartphone will be released on a yearly basis, the lifecycle of a vehicle model can be as much as five to seven years. This discrepancy in lifecycle is limiting the automotive industry’s ability to introduce heterogeneous computing. While a connected vehicle or an AV can be refreshed

around an adjustment to how automakers would earn money from a vehicle. What many are beginning to realise is that shared, connected and autonomous services are set to change the current value model of a new vehicle. “Consider how the automotive supply chain works: one of the first thing automakers do when building a new model is contact their suppliers,” explained McCammon. “They will tell the suppliers what they need, the suppliers will provide a product, and the product goes in the car. If these products have connected features that interest consumers, then the cost to the automaker is going to increase as the suppliers can charge more. For automakers that is not sustainable.”

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it has to be dog-eat-dog; there are some places where partnerships and standards will arise.” In short, change is coming. The value of making the switch to heterogeneous computing, especially in regard to power, space and weight savings, will be extremely valuable as the industry moves closer to EVs. However, this change will not come overnight. “Automotive is slow to change,” concluded McCammon. “While the pace of change that we see now is much faster than anything the automotive industry has seen in its history, by everyone else’s standards it is still slow. If we want the industry to be as healthy and vibrant as it has been in the past, then at some point it is going to have to transform itself.”

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

Evolving EVs demand a passive safety rethink Worldwide, ArcelorMittal expects that some 25% of new vehicles will be at least partially electrified by 2025. Lightweighting remains important – but it’s not the only consideration, writes Xavier Boucherat

t is hard to understate the weight of electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Take the 85 kWh pack used in the Tesla Model S, which weighs in at around 540kg (1200lbs) – that’s slightly heavier than the average fully grown Kodiak grizzly bear. Smaller models which can sacrifice some lithium-ion cell capacity aren’t quite so hefty, but still considerable. At 436kg, the Chevrolet Bolt battery pack is around the weight of a standard grand piano, and still results in an overall vehicle weight increase compared with an internal combustion engine (ICE) equivalent.

A consequence of this is that in the event of a crash, the car has more energy to absorb. Furthermore, the design of EVs is such that the way it absorbs that energy is also different. A battery pack sits on the bottom of a vehicle, lowering the centre of gravity, whilst an electric motor is smaller than that of an ICE, changing the way space is distributed up front.

The traditional ideas which have thus far guided passive safety design have therefore changed, and certain solutions need a rethink. That’s according to Jean Luc Thirion, General Manager,

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At 436kg, the Chevrolet Bolt battery pack is around the weight of a standard grand piano

Global R&D for Automotive at ArcelorMittal. Once upon a time, it was generally thought that aluminium was the obvious choice for making EVs, with its weightsaving potential enabling acceptable ranges. This, suggests Thirion, is changing, as automakers accept that some extra weight when compared with ICEs is unavoidable, and with the advent of advanced high strength steels (AHSS) and ultra high strength steels (UHSS). “Progressive improvements in battery technology will see weight become less of a problem,” he says. “Consider that a weight saving of 100kg only gives around 11 or 12km more range, which isn’t so high.

I believe that passive safety, along with cost, are becoming the most important considerations for EV manufacturers.” Certain developments back Thirion up. Tesla upset the aluminium sector when it announced it would move away from the material for Model 3 production. The Nissan Leaf, the Renault Zoe and the Chevrolet Bolt have all also followed a largely steelbased strategy.

Taking a battering The most immediate concern when it comes to EV safety is the battery itself. Whilst there is little to suggest that an EV is more likely to catch fire than an ICE, the consequences

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of lithium-ion cell fires have made themselves known in recent years. Fire services have had to develop special protocols to deal safely with high-voltage blazes, and packs involved in crashes have been known to spontaneously reignite days after the fact. “There’s not much freedom to play with the shape or design of a battery box, because it’s rectangular,” he explains. “The main freedom is the material itself, and so it’s clear that roll-forming will become one of the manufacturing technologies used to produce such framing. We produce martensitic grades with very high strengths, up to 1500 megapascals (MPa).” Customers

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are now requesting strengths of 1700MPa, he says, and are even exploring options for 2000MPa. “This is a real trend,” he adds. “Strengths will get higher and higher to protect battery cells.”

Passive safety, along with cost, are becoming the most important considerations for EV manufacturers of a crash, they can accept a certain amount of deformation. Batteries raise the anti-intrusion requirement, and roll-formed or press-hardened martensitic steels are an excellent solution.”

Throughout the vehicle

The effect on production

But beyond the battery, Thirion expects there will be a general rework of safety throughout the car, and as such, martensitic steels could find themselves used to make other parts of the vehicle. Shield panels fitted to the underside of the vehicle will be required to mitigate the risk of stones, water and other roadside debris from rupturing the battery. Meanwhile, further bodyin-white (BIW) protection could reinforce the battery, and ultra-high strength side seals and rocker panels (fitted between the front and rear wheels which sit beneath the doors at the level of the battery) of up to 2000MPa could become a requirement for customers.

Do these new requirements present manufacturing challenges? Over the last five years, says Thirion, investment from ArcelorMittal in new capacities has been sizeable. First came investment in upstream facilities, to ensure access to steels with excellent levels of cleanliness. Next, a mix of new hot-rolling and cold-rolling capabilities were needed to produce high-strength steels which are sufficiently thin, to save weight. Finally, specific facilities were required to create annealing capacity, in which heated metals can be quenched extremely quickly to create very high strength grades.

“It’s different from conventional ICE vehicles,” says Thirion, “because whilst ideally an automaker doesn’t want penetration in the event

“Today, it’s no longer a matter of investment,” he says. “For hot stamping grades and thirdgeneration AHSS for cold stamping, we are already at industrial levels

in Europe and North America. In the mid-term we want to be able to produce these products across all four regions, including China and South America.” In an example of how EVs are effecting change in steel production, Thirion points to ArcelorMittal’s developments in the field of laser-welded blanks for press-hardened steels. A standard B-pillar, he explains, is made by welding an upper part of 1500MPa and a lower part of 500MPa. New grades have boosted these to 2000MPa and 1000MPa respectively. Using higher strengths might normally present risks: the traditional process uses ‘ablation’, in which the aluminium coating used on top of advanced steels is removed via laser to ensure it can’t enter the weld and make it brittle. However, removing it altogether can cause corrosion along the weld. Simultaneous welding and partial ablation is now possible at ArcelorMittal’s line in Uckange, France, following an investment of €7m (US$7.98M). “With this new technology,” says Thirion, “we can create products in the 2000MPa range

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Whilst an automaker doesn’t want penetration in the event of a crash, they can accept a certain amount of deformation… Batteries raise the antiintrusion requirement

without any risk, thus protecting batteries and passengers against intrusion, particularly in the case of side-crashes.”

The time is now ArcelorMittal’s current analysis suggests that electric vehicles, including all types of hybrids, could represent 25% of new vehicle sales worldwide by 2025, and this

figure will be higher in specific markets. As such, new grades of EV-suitable steel will become key offerings to ArcelorMittal’s customers. Along with lighter parts that can still offer adequate safety performance, Thirion points out that electrical steels used in electric motors and elsewhere will be an important area for the manufacturer. Normally thinner, this too has required investment in production and innovation.

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“It will be a challenge for all steelmakers to follow this incredible growth,” concludes Thirion. “It’s probably the highest growth rate the industry will know for electrical steels, which in themselves are a very interesting products.” The debate around EV manufacturing has moved far beyond how light you can make it, and moving forward, steel manufacturers can expect requirements to transform as fast as the industry itself.

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

The three revolutions: our best hope for a sustainable transportation future? The automotive revolution of the 20th century brought massive benefits. Safe, affordable cars enabled people to travel farther and faster, expanding access to jobs, schools, health care, and much more. But we’ve gone too far – mass car ownership is imposing huge costs on individuals and society, writes Dan Sperling

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019

oad congestion in the US cost US$305bn last year, mostly in lost time; the average Los Angeles driver spends a whopping 102 hours per year in traffic, for example. Increased driving and energy use has resulted in transportation edging out electricity as the top producer of US greenhouse-gas emissions. And while cars have grown far safer over the years, car crashes kill close to 40,000 people per year in the US and injure many more.

actually family travel). And billions more has been spent on public transit, with 80% of transit costs subsidised, yet ridership has dwindled to only about 1% of passenger miles traveled. We’ve built a society centered on the automobile. Walking, biking, buses, and trains can all be good options in some circumstances, but they usually can’t match the flexibility, comfort, and range of a car. We can’t just eliminate cars. However, we can rethink

automated features such as adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping, and automatic braking. Fully self-driving vehicles are expected to enter commercial service on a limited basis by 2019. Trips taken through app-based ride-hailing services such as Lyft and Uber will exceed bus travel by the end of 2018, and every major automaker has electric cars on the market. We can predict with near certainty that automation and electrification will eventually dominate the car

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We can predict with near certainty that automation and electriﬁcation will eventually dominate the car market (and much of trucking as well). Vehicle sharing—often referred to as pooling—is the less certain revolution

Perhaps most disconcerting is that vehicle dominance has resulted in the marginalisation of those too poor to own cars and those with physical limitations that make it difficult to drive; 20% of households at or below the poverty level don’t own a vehicle, and many others own old, unreliable vehicles, sharply reducing economic, social, and recreational opportunities. The presumed solutions, carpooling and mass transit, have largely failed, despite massive investment. Billions of dollars have been spent on highoccupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, yet carpooling has declined from 20% of commute trips in 1980 to less than 10% today (with about half of those “carpool” trips

how cars are designed, powered, and used. Vehicle automation, sharing, and electrification—what I refer to as the “Three Revolutions” of transportation— have incredible potential to dramatically decrease congestion, traveler costs, road construction, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions, while also enhancing mobility and accessibility for all.

Technology gains bring societal issues These three revolutions are already occurring. Most new cars are equipped with some semi-

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market (and much of trucking as well). Vehicle sharing—often referred to as pooling—is the less certain revolution. Pooled vehicles are those serving two or more passengers. Pooling is a critical complement to driverless vehicles. If driverless vehicles simply replace today’s conventional vehicles, we could see even more congestion and environmental impacts from cars than we do today. Because driverless vehicles give occupants the freedom to work, relax, sleep, eat and drink, and more, car travel will be fun and productive rather than a hassle. Studies support the intuition that fully automated vehicles will increase vehicle use by as much as 100%. This increase will include many “zombie miles”—miles traveled

M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 by empty vehicles—as owners direct their vehicles to wander the streets or head home rather than park. There is an alternative. Instead of having automated vehicles be individually owned, fleets of automated vehicles could be managed and deployed by mobility service companies providing pooled services. These would be similar to today’s uberPOOL and Lyft Line services, but without a driver. The cost advantage of pooled, automated

vehicles are huge. By operating vehicles for 100,000 miles per year, spreading costs over multiple passengers, and eliminating drivers, pooled travel will be remarkably inexpensive on a per-passenger mile basis—as little as a third of the cost of owning and operating a personal vehicle today. And if these pooled, automated vehicles are also electric, travel will become even cheaper as a result of reduced fuel costs, lower maintenance requirements, and longer vehicle life.

From a societal perspective, pooled, automated, electric cars are highly compelling, and not just because of cost savings. They promise reduced traffic congestion, road and parking infrastructure, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as more mobility and access by those marginalised by our carcentric transportation. But pooling implies giving up personal ownership of cars. While some of us will gladly rid ourselves of the burden of car ownership, research by my colleagues at the University

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While some of us will gladly rid ourselves of the burden of car ownership, research suggests that most will not

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M:bility | Magazine - Q1 2019 of California, Davis suggests that most will not. Low cost will not be enough to convince people to pool. Many will cling to personal car ownership for a variety of reasons, including privacy. We already know that it’s difficult to get people to pool on a wide scale in the driver-oriented world of today. We need to start thinking creatively about how to get people to pool in the driverless world of tomorrow.

An action agenda for pooling, automation and electrification First, the automotive industry must rethink car design. Cars of today are built for the driver, but cars of tomorrow should be built for the passenger. Cars could be redesigned to ease entering and exiting, especially for older or disabled riders. Car interiors could be redesigned to enhance privacy for passengers who don’t know each other but wind up sharing a ride. And raw power and speed could be exchanged for comfort and stability. A rapid acceleration from 0 to 60 miles per hour in three seconds may be exhilarating for a driver, but not for passengers working or relaxing. Second, more choice in transportation should be valued and promoted. Trip purposes and needs vary. Some trips are short, others long. Some need additional space to transport luggage, groceries, etc. Mobility service providers should make it easy for customers to choose the ride that best suits their need. Cities and companies should work together to make it easy and safe for those physically competent

to rent and use dockless electric scooters and bikes for shorter trips, including first-/last-mile connections to rail and bus. Increasing transportation choice is also essential to easing the transition away from a car-centric society. Today, gas taxes and congestion pricing can feel like punishments since most travelers depend on cars for work commutes and other essential trips. Giving people alternatives would do a lot to help. Some progress has been made on this front in recent years. We must keep the momentum going.

pooling pick-up and drop-off zones, giving pooled rides priority access at high-traffic venues such as airports and sporting arenas, and restructuring fees on Lyft, Uber, and microtransit companies such as Via. Many cities and states are actively discouraging pooling by imposing a per-passenger fee on users of these services; changing this is urgent. More profound policy changes include reforming transportation finance to encourage transit operators to do what they do best—serve dense routes—while encouraging new mobility companies to serve less dense areas with pooled services.

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Cities and companies should work together to make it easy and safe for those physically competent to rent and use dockless electric scooters and bikes for shorter trips

Finally, we need to create and implement transportation policy that expedites the integration of automation, sharing, and electrification. Key to this is the understanding that pooling is the only transportation strategy that simultaneously improves congestion, efficiency, cost, and equity. Simple policy changes that support pooling include designating some curb space as

Policymakers could also establish incentives to reward automakers that build passenger-centric vehicles for mobility service providers that embrace pooled, electric vehicles. The three revolutions are our best hope for a truly sustainable transportation future. We must act now to ensure this hope becomes reality.

Dan Sperling is the Distinguished Blue Planet Prize Professor of Engineering and Environmental Science at the University of California, Davis. He is also lead author of Three Revolutions: Steering Automated, Shared, and Electric Vehicles to a Better Future.

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