M:bility | Magazine – Q2 2019

M:bility | Magazine Q2 2019

Volvo's EV superstar targets pole position

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ArcelorMittal’s automotive steels open the door to lighter, safer, and more sustainable vehicles – at an affordable cost.

As the world’s leading supplier of steel products and solutions, ArcelorMittal is a key partner for the global automotive industry. automotive.arcelormittal.com

longrine.com - (02/19) - Photos credits : Masterfile, Longrine

Steel: the strongest choice

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Published in March 2019 by:

Welcome... …to the Q2 2019 issue of M:bility magazine.

If current promises hold true, autonomous vehicles (AVs) will benefit the lives of many. A reduction in human error should revolutionise road safety, and those with limited access to transport will finally have a source of ondemand mobility.

While there are numerous concepts in development, many pilot programmes today use modified versions of existing passenger cars. Consider Uber’s fleet of Volvo XC90 SUVs, nuTonomy’s preference for the Renault Zoe and Waymo’s Chrysler Pacifica minivans. It makes sense to use off-the-shelf products; testing must be carried out sooner rather than later, and waiting for a suitable shuttle to be developed, tested and approved would see AV technology gathering dust.

Quality of life is impacted significantly by access to affordable, efficient and safe transportation, and ondemand AVs must be designed with all passengers in mind. As such, new prototypes are beginning to do away with traditional layouts. In many instances, the cockpit is no more, rows of seats have been replaced with carriagestyle benches, and open floor space caters to those with wheelchairs and other mobility needs.

By 2030, the United Nations expects 43 megacities—those with more than ten million inhabitants—to exist around the world. Today, the likes of New Delhi, Shanghai and São Paolo all host more than double that figure, with many residents already struggling to get around safely and efficiently. In some cases, frantic and unstructured road conditions could prove too much for robo-taxis to ever operate, but the industry will strive to prove otherwise—lives depend on it.

Automotive World est. 1992 Automotive World 1-3 Washington Buildings Stanwell Road, Penarth, CF64 2AD, UK www.automotiveworld.com T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 support@automotiveworld.com ISSN: 2053 776X Registered number: 04242884 VAT number: GB 815 220 173 CEO & Managing Director: Gareth Davies Editor: Freddie Holmes Contributors Azra Habibovic Cristofer Englund Derek Viita Diane O’Neill Freddie Holmes Jack Hunsley Jonas Andersson Megan Lampinen Xavier Boucherat Production: Anmol Mothy

Freddie Holmes Editor, M:bility Magazine

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

IN THIS ISSUE q2 2019

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Why are car giants investing in micro-scooters?

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The future of mobility in Mumbai hinges on pragmatism

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Automated vehicles – the opportunity to create an inclusive mobility system

22

More stringent, more technical: Uber’s new look self-driving programme

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A Swede growing in Tesla's back yard: Polestar goes EV

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US gives self-driving trucks the green light

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Tata Motors on fulfilling India’s electric dream

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Could brain power be the new car key?

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Consumer scepticism in autonomous vehicles remains unresolved

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Blind trust, culture clashes and robot empathy – Mercedes-Benz on autonomous cars

58

Heat seeking cameras help autonomous cars to see in the dark

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How AR could offer a glimpse into the mind of a robot

An Automotive World publication

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

18

50

Creating an inclusive mobility system

Mercedes-Benz on autonomous cars

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58

Car giants invest in micro-scooters

22

Uber's new look self-driving programme

Heat seeking cameras help autonomous cars to see in the dark

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34

A Swede growing in Tesla's back yard: Polestar goes EV

US supports self-driving truck tests

An Automotive World publication

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Š SEAT

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Why are car giants investing in micro-scooters?

Fleets of motorised micro-scooters have flooded city streets of late, but why has the trend drawn the eye of global automakers?

Freddie Holmes investigates

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An Automotive World publication

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

R

iding a micro scooter as a kid was a painful experience.

Aptly named ‘razor scooters’, they had the uncanny ability to remove the skin from your shins.

Propelled by simply kicking the ground, they were certainly fun to zoom around on but by no means a legitimate mode of urban transportation.

Fast-forward to 2019, and scooters have become the commute of preference for a growing number of adults. Equipped with electric motors and a top speed of around 15mph (24kph), today’s e-scooters have formed a new layer of public transportation.

Automotive industry watchers have questioned whether this is a legitimate piece to the future mobility puzzle, or simply a short-lived fad.

Interesting investments

© Ford

At face value—shared, connected and electric—they certainly tick the right boxes.

Ford acquired Spin in 2018

Over the past few years, many of the world’s largest household automotive names have emulated the work ethic of venture capital

firms. Alongside traditional vehicle manufacturing activities, sizeable investments into the weird and wonderful have come thick and fast. Electric scooters, however, appear to be one of the more

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I put it under the category of throwing something against the wall and seeing if it will stick - Matt DeLorenzo, Kelley Blue Book

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obscure targets. The trend has certainly raised eyebrows across the industry.

“I put it under the category of throwing something against the wall and seeing if it will stick,” said Matt DeLorenzo, Senior Managing Editor for Kelley Blue Book. He suggested that automakers are getting involved with e-scooters as “another attempt to make themselves seem relevant in the mobility movement.”

However, it has also seen valuations skyrocket. “If 12 months ago someone said ‘there is going to be a US$2bn scooter company’ you would have probably laughed them out of the door,” mused Sunny Madra, Vice President of Ford X when speaking at the Morgan Stanley Annual Laguna Conference in September 2018.

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E-scooters do in fact make good sense. They are relatively cheap to make and operate, which fits well with the key idea of MaaS - Axel Schmidt, Accenture

© Ford

Earlier that year, Ford had announced it would discontinue sedans and compact cars in the US, focussing instead on SUVs, pick-ups and performance models like the Mustang. A few months later in November, news broke that it had acquired Spin, one of the main players alongside Lime and Bird in the e-scooter market. Whilst a puzzling decision for some—dialling back on cars and doubling down on s c o o t e r s —t h e i n v e s t m e n t t i e s

back to Bill Ford’s 2011 TED Talk: “My concern changed from ‘how do we sell more cars and trucks’, to ‘what if we only sell more cars and trucks’.”

Beyond four wheels For an automaker to look beyond cars for new profit pools is not entirely surprising. “The future of the automotive industry will very much hinge on

OEMs becoming brokers of ‘Mobility-as-a-Service’, delivered through all kinds of modes of transportation: cars, trains, bikes… or scooters,” observed Axel Schmidt, Automotive Global Lead at Accenture.

Speaking at the Barclays Global Automotive Conference in November 2018, Joe Hinrichs, President of Global Operations at Ford, responded to criticism that “precious” capital was being spent

E-scooters fall under the umbrella term of ‘micro-mobility’

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© BMW

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

BMW X2City

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Automakers getting involved in this market will be at the mercy of local government, who may make moves to ban their use - Matt DeLorenzo, Kelley Blue Book

inconsistently. He backed the Spin deal as being an “important part” of the automaker’s mobility strategy.

It has become a lucrative area, with some start-ups earning so-called unicorn status; that is, a billiondollar valuation. Bird was reported to have been the fastest start-up ever to become a unicorn, taking little under a year. A round of investment led by Alphabet and Uber in July 2018 valued Lime—which was only founded in January 2017—at

US$1.1bn. “E-scooters do in fact make good sense,” said Schmidt.

“They are relatively cheap to make and operate, which fits well with the key idea of MaaS, and this is all about bringing down the cost per kilometer.”

The user base is growing significantly as a whole, and with e-scooters used primarily for short distance travel, utilisation rates are sky high. “It took Uber three years to get to one million rides, but it

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took Lime six months,” noted Ford’s Madra. “This is something that you just can't ignore if you're looking at mobility.”

It is not just Ford that is looking beyond four wheels for future mobility solutions. SEAT has developed its own motorised scooter in partnership with Segway. Equipped with front and rear LED lights, a digital display and even cruise control, the eXS is offered as a privately owned

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© Bird

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Bird already has a valuation north of US$1bn

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The market opportunity around mobility services is simply too large, and the bets that companies are making around it too substantial - Axel Schmidt, Accenture

scooter as opposed to a publically shared product. It builds on the Volkswagen Group’s existing ‘Cityskater’, a three-wheel scooter designed specifically for last-mile travel. Peugeot has offered the Micro e-Kick scooter as an accessory for the 3008 GT SUV for a couple of years now, while the folding BMW X2City e-scooter will also be sold to private customers.

At CES 2017, Hyundai previewed its Ioniq e-scooter concept, although little news has followed since.

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Bird graveyard E-scooters fall under the umbrella term of ‘micro-mobility’ in which solutions are designed to facilitate quick and easy last-mile travel. Haila-cab services have tapped into this market to significant success, but increasingly congested city roads have begun to tarnish their appeal.

Rather than waiting for a taxi, you can hunt for a scooter; it is less Uber and more Pokemon Go.

Initially, the lesser spotted e-scooter was likely to be found lying at the side of the road after having been abandoned by its rider.

Indeed, early deployment was not a glamorous affair. Videos shared on social media showed riders struggling to operate these e-scooters—colliding with cars, curbs and each other. Then there is Bird Graveyard, an Instagram account dedicated to the destruction of escooters, most often by throwing

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 them from multi-storey car parks.

As one PBS news reporter put it: “It gives new meaning to the term ‘bird droppings’.”

It is not quite the utopian future that some may have hoped for, and neither has it met the visions of city planners. Indeed, municipalities soon scrambled teams to perform what can only be described as pest control to round up abandoned rides.

Accenture’s Schmidt agrees.

“Scooters are easy to use, which means they are suitable for a much larger total addressable market—people without a driver’s license, or youths, for example,” he added. “They are also relatively sustainable and much better suited for crowded city streets than, say, large SUVs.”

Rogue deployment Much like the rebellious teens that first rode scooters decades ago, some start-ups went ahead and did as they pleased without permission. Back in July 2018, dozens of Bird electric scooters appeared in Boston seemingly overnight and with no formal partnership in place with the city.

© SEAT

Despite the clutter, mobility experts point to the bigger picture of a properly managed service: accessibility. “Many see e-scooters cluttering our sidewalks and streets and causing a safety hazard. In contrast, I see more travel choices,” said Dan Sperling, Professor of Engineering and Environmental Science at the University of California, Davis. “I see an opportunity to reduce dependence on cars, and thus a way to reduce the huge amount of urban space devoted to parking and roads, the large amounts of greenhouse gases emitted by vehicles, and an innovative way to increase accessibility and mobility.”

SEAT eXS KickScooter powered by Segway Dockless and free-floating, this also meant streets became dumping grounds. Piles of discarded scooters lined sidewalks like litter that had been blown aimlessly in the wind.

Once clear public walkways and cycle routes soon became graveyards for scooters that had fulfilled the brief needs of their riders, who pay little more than US$0.15 a minute on top of a US$1 unlock fee.

Boston Mayer, Marty Walsh, remarked at the time that, “if they drop them off here, we’re going to pick them up off the street and they can come pick them up at the tow yard.” Shortly after, Boston

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became a no-fly zone with the Bird smartphone app marking the entire city as off limits to riders.

Earlier in May, a local governmentled sweep in Nashville, Tennessee confiscated 150 Bird scooters that had been abandoned illegally on public rights-of-way.

“Automakers getting involved in this market will be at the mercy of local government, who may make moves to ban their use,” said Kelley Blue Book’s DeLorenzo.

“State and local governments will determine how and where these scooters will be used. The bigger issue is the one of the unsightly litter of these bikes, especially those that lack docking stations.”

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© Ford

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Hunt for a scooter via an app; it is less Uber and more Pokemon Go In August, the San Francisco Municipal Transport Agency (SFMTA) also put its foot down and abruptly cut short the operations of numerous scooter start-ups. Of 12 applicants, relatively unknown players Skip and Scoot gained approval after meeting the SFMTA’s strict guidelines for a ‘safe, equitable, and accountable scooter-share service.’

In November, Bird hit back against an ‘unceremonious’ ban of e-scooters in Beverley Hills. A few months earlier, around 1,000 Bird scooters had been impounded by city officials, along with a reported US$100,000 bill for their release.

In December, Gold Coast officials in Brisbane, Australia hit out at Lime for ‘plonking’ e-scooters on city streets and footpaths without permission.

“Cities that have banned or limited them, including Los Angeles, San Francisco and Santa Monica, worried that the scooters were cluttering sidewalks and creating

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safety hazards for pedestrians and riders,” said Sperling. “Even my own city of Davis—perhaps the ideal host for e-scooters because of its extensive bike network and bike culture—temporarily banned e-scooters in November 2018.”

Interestingly, many of these cities are also advocates for emissionsfree transportation. New mobility solutions need to be implemented according to official guidelines, however, and not at the leisure of start-ups seeking growth first, and approval later. “What we like about Spin is they work collaboratively with the local government,” noted Ford’s Hinrichs in November, who suggested that developing a close relationship with cities will be vital.

The last (three) miles The appeal of a kick scooter is likely to vary depending on where you live. For a rural dweller out in

the sticks, the attraction will be fairly limited. For city slickers that contend with gridlock day in, day out, the e-scooter is no gimmick.

“Scooters have really highlighted the sub three mile market,” said Ford’s Madra at the Morgan Stanley conference in September. “I was at Twitter in San Francisco a couple of months ago… To get to the Ferry Building with an Uber X would have taken 15 or 20 minutes and cost US$8 due to traffic. It took me three minutes on a scooter to get there.”

Those that frequent long-stay car parks could also feel the benefit.

Depending on the user’s luggage, an e-scooter could take away the pain of walking the final stretch to the car after a tiring plane or train journey.

“They can serve as an important link in multi-modal mobility service offerings,” explained Accenture’s Schmidt. “Why not, for example, rent a scooter to get from your ‘park and ride’ spot at the end of the lot to the train station that’s 2km down the road if you’re in a hurry?”

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

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Within one year, shared electric scooters have gained the fancy of travellers, start-ups, investors and multinational automakers. But will those billion dollar unicorn investments soon turn into financial disappointments? I hope not - Dan Sperling, University of California, Davis

Prior to the clampdown on e-scooters, it was somewhat of a free-for-all. Scooters would zip in and out of traffic on roads, and pedestrians on public walkways.

Now, cities like San Francisco have put strict regulations in place that limit where, and how, scooters can be ridden and parked. Integration with existing traffic could be eased by limiting their use to cycle lanes.

“E-scooters are compatible with bicycles; they have similar speed profiles and can use the same infrastructure. Indeed, they increase the pressure to build more safe protected bike lanes, which would be used by both the e-scooters and bikes,” said Sperling. “My own personal experience is that they are fun and easy to use—some people reluctant to ride a bike find the scooters more acceptable.”

Challenges do remain. Will e-scooters be seasonal, for example? Snow, ice and bitterly cold weather do not make for an attractive—or safe—user experience.

Roads and cycle lanes also need to

be kept clear and in good condition; a car’s suspension may suffer from hitting a pothole, but could send a scooter rider hurtling. Irresponsible riding is also a threat. In August 2018, an elderly woman was hit and killed by someone riding an escooter in the Catalan barrio of Esplugues de Llobregat.

Keep on scooting While movements in the US may have captured the headlines, it is very much a global phenomenon. Berlin startups Wind Mobility and Tier, Swedish start-up VOI and Parisbased Bolt make up a growing contingent taking hold in Europe.

Bird is expanding in various regions across South America, including Mexico City, Buenos Aires and Bogota. In Brazil, Yellow is making waves in the investment community and recently sealed a US$75m investment round. In January 2019, Singapore’s Land Transit Authority (LTA) began accepting applications to operate shared escooter services in the city-state.

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“Within one year, shared electric scooters have gained the fancy of travellers, start-ups, investors and multinational automakers. But will those billion dollar unicorn investments soon turn into financial disappointments?” mused Sperling. “I hope not. They are not for everyone nor suited to all occasions, but they are fun and easy to drive, inexpensive, have miniscule carbon footprints, and provide a good alternative for trips up to about three miles.

Build more protected bike-scooter lanes, and we have a massive success story.”

Accenture’s Schmidt is of a similar view. “I fully expect this to not be a fad, but a trend,” he concluded.

“The market opportunity around mobility services is simply too large, and the bets that companies are making around it too substantial. All the players pushing for these kinds of offerings – be they OEMs like Ford and SEAT, or start-ups like Bird and the VC firms backing them—are already creating considerable momentum. Expect to see more scooters around.”

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

The future of mobility in Mumbai hinges on pragmatism Underground metros and robo-cabs are under consideration, but simple measures such as dedicated bus and cycle lanes could provide immediate respite from the pressures of urbanisation. Freddie Holmes visits Mumbai to find out where the financial capital of India stands on smart mobility solutions

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

M

umbai has been through significant change over the years. The city originally consisted of seven islands, but, following more than a century of reclamation projects, now sits as a single landmass. Its next challenge will be to lay down the foundations of a sustainable, safe and efficient mobility ecosystem, as urbanisation pushes the city to its limits.

Mumbai is described by many as the financial epicentre of India—it runs the country, as locals put it— but pockets of wealth remain interspersed with extreme poverty: more than 40% of Mumbai’s estimated 22 million inhabitants live in slums today. At an event held by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), and materials supplier Covestro, which gathered figures from a range of industries to discuss the long-term future of mobility in the city, M:bility learned that it is under greater pressure to adapt than ever.

and the CII estimates that around 200 new vehicles are added to Mumbai’s vehicle parc each day.

“Mumbai is a city of extremes,” noted Markus Steilemann, Chief Executive of performance materials supplier Covestro at the event. “You can sit in traffic for hours, and yet we still want to own a car here.”

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You can sit in traffic for hours, and yet we still want to own a car here - Markus Steilemann, Chief Executive, Covestro

Congestion hampers mobility Including two- and three-wheelers and passenger cars, nearly every household in India owns a vehicle,

© Niko Palosuo

Talk of a new age in mobility is hard to imagine when taking to the capital’s city streets. Transforming the level of safety, accessibility and

efficiency will be a herculean task, but the city’s future depends on it.

“If we do not move people efficiently in future, we will not be a strong economy,” warned Ashish Kumar Singh, Principle Secretary of Transport & Port at the Government of Maharashtra, India’s wealthiest state.

An event hosted by Covestro highlighted many challenges facing mobility in Mumbai

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Parking limitations have also been exacerbated by the attraction of new companies into Mumbai’s business districts. “As we become bigger, large companies are mushrooming within the city,” said Singh. “Trucks, cars and other vehicles cannot be parked far away from the city when it comes to freight deliveries.

Unfortunately, they utilise prime space without being used—in some cases 23 hours a day, seven days a week—occupying space and causing congestion.”

The needs of those without a vehicle also need to be better addressed, argued Singh.

According to analysis from the CII, around 40% of journeys within Mumbai are carried out on foot.

More must be done to improve the mobility of buses, said Singh, “which are more efficient and cheaper” compared to private vehicles and taxis. However, with dedicated bus lanes only occasionally found on arterial links out of the city, buses are often stuck in traffic. “The only solution is mass rapid transit systems, or

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 the city will choke,” warned Vinod Rohira, Managing Director, Commercial Real Estate at K Raheja Corp.

Mumbai’s current rail network is heavily relied on for commuters making their way in and out of the city each day, and with limited lines and carriage sizes, it is not a comfortable or safe journey.

Carriages are stuffed with paying travellers like sardines—a dynamic that most have simply accepted.

“High-speed rail networks could be a game changer,” commented Ashutosh Limaye, Director, Consulting Practice at Anarock Property Consultants.

An underground line that is currently under construction will supplement the existing overground metro line, which connects the east and west of the city. “We are seeing Mumbai spend extreme amounts of money on infrastructure, but this is extremely necessary for mobility,” noted Rohira.

Safety In December 2017, former joint commissioner of police for Mumbai Traffic, B K Upadhaya, told The Times of India that the culture around Indian road safety needs to change. “In foreign countries, both pedestrians and motorists follow the traffic system and guidelines,” he said. “In India, such a system is not up to the mark.”

This becomes immediately apparent when taking to the road. During a visit to Colaba, Mumbai’s main tourist district, one scooter rider collided with a taxi as he cut across an intersection at the last minute.

Both parties simply shared a glance, gestured that all was well, and continued with their day.

This nonchalance can be seen across all road users, including

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I would cycle, but it is just too dangerous… I’d need to carry my insurance policy with me

pedestrians, who simply merge with oncoming traffic to cross the road. Locals argue it is a system that works, but the statistics suggest otherwise: in 2016, 577 people died on Mumbai roads, down from 611 the year previous.

Police officers enforce the flow of traffic for many large intersections, and camera systems have been installed across the city to catch those that run red lights. However, a single journey quickly highlights that

this is rarely adhered to. It is widely described as organised chaos, and questions have been asked of the effectiveness of these cameras. “When does anybody ever get pulled up on this data coming from the traffic cameras?” mused Jayant Kohale, Business Head at RPG Smart Infra, a conglomerate that sits on India’s Smart City Council. Rupee fines may not be the best solution to red light jumping, he continued.

“The system could be pointsbased, rather than a fine—some

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 drivers could keep paying 100 rupees without breaking a sweat,” he explained.

Heavy-duty trucks dominate the road even within the heart of the city. These tall, heavy vehicles with poor visibility—some operate with broken mirrors that hang limply to the side of the vehicle— do not bode well for micromobility options without dedicated lanes. “I would cycle, but it is just too dangerous,” noted Rohira. “I’d need to carry my insurance policy with me.” In September, e-scooter start-up Bird posted a job listing for a Mumbai-based General Manager.

However, the current safety dynamic could see micro-mobility solutions such as e-scooters and e-bikes struggle. On Mumbai’s crowded streets today, it would prove extremely dangerous unless drastic changes to road infrastructure are seen.

Autonomous unlikely for the foreseeable Elsewhere, driverless shuttles are widely believed as the answer to mobility issues faced in urban areas. In India, the prospect is somewhat hampered by notoriously busy, unstructured road networks and frantic driving styles. Integrating an autonomous vehicle (AV) within the centre of Mumbai would frankly seem ludicrous at this point, but with a long-term view in mind, the possibility has not been ruled out.

“AVs would perhaps be a good answer,” said Singh. “You could get a car on demand without having to own it—it will be as good as ownership.”

Automakers in the country are not quite so bullish. “The required traffic and infrastructure solutions

are not there yet,” Tom von Bonsdorff, ex-Managing Director of Volvo Cars India, told Automotive World in 2015. “In some of the most congested areas like Delhi, Pune or Mumbai, I do not see autonomous driving coming out.”

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Others industry observers share a similar opinion, suggesting that new roads will simply become an additional source of gridlock.

“The real way we reduce congestion in cities is to keep personal cars on the outskirts or

Autonomous [driving] will not be relevant in India - Guenter Butschek, Chief Executive, Tata Motors

Speaking to M:bility in February, Tata Motors Chief Executive, Guenter Butschek, also snubbed the idea. “Autonomous [driving] will not be relevant in India,” he said. “We need to cover the most urgent use cases; radical solutions do not work here.” Referring to the common industry acronym CASE (Connected, Autonomous, Shared and Electric), Butschek advised that ‘CES’ is more appropriate. “I am sick and tired of being asked about what autonomous driving means in India,” he continued. “Here it is about driver assistance systems and making human driving safer.”

More roads, more problems?

Suggestions that road capacity could simply be expanded to deal with congestion have also been met with criticism. “If I’m getting fat, changing my dress size is not the solution,” said Desai. Instead, so-called ‘smart mobility solutions’ need to be considered.

“More roads, metros and bridges may not be the answer,” he noted.

“We have to change the strategy.”

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in designated areas, and have a planned, efficient, equal access transport system inside the city,” says Brian Moody, Executive Editor of Autotrader. Cities that add or expand roads will eventually “fall prey to the rule that if you add capacity, it’s going to just fill up anyway,” adds Nick Cohn, Senior Traffic Expert at TomTom. “The increased industrialisation of urban areas is driving people into mega cities like Mumbai,” concluded Covestro’s Steilemann. “Mumbai is on one hand considered as the metropolis of India, while on the other, nearly half of its inhabitants are still living in slums. With innovative solutions, we can seek to respond to such challenges.” Mumbai will continue to attract new settlers at an alarming rate, but as a city that already struggles to meet the needs of its existing citizens, feasible mobility solutions must be rolled out in force. Traffic congestion, road safety and pollution will continue to worsen if the city drags its heels, but how and when such solutions may materialise remains up in the air.

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Š Navya

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Automated vehicles – the opportunity to create an inclusive mobility system Automated vehicles must be designed to suit the requirements of those who need them most. By Azra Habibovic, Jonas Andersson and Cristofer Englund from RISE Research Institutes of Sweden

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 utomated vehicles are expected to improve mobility and thereby address one of the major barriers to equality and inclusion in society. However, if the development continues to overlook needs of the marginalised population and those who have limited mobility today, existing mobility issues may be amplified. To ensure that automated vehicles and corresponding mobility services serve all people, stakeholders need to truly embrace a ‘whole journey’ mindset using the universal design from early development phases.

Figure 1: Assessment of how well the current transportation system fulfills daily transportation needs of visually impaired people (median on a scale 0 to 10) as identified within the Swedish study Automation for increased accessibility?, funded by the Strategic Innovation Programme Drive Sweden

© RISE Research Institutes of Sweden

A

Mobility is a fundamental human right The Universal Declaration of Human Rights adopted by the United Nations in 1948 underlines that freedom of movement is a fundamental human right. Today, however, mobility of many people in our society including children, the elderly and those with disabilities, is often limited. This may make them feel dependent on others and socially excluded.

For instance, street design and traffic complexity commonly limit children’s independent mobility up to a rather high age. Elderly people may need to give up driving due to their age, but public transport is not easily accessible— even in countries like Sweden with highly-developed public transportation. In the vehicle, elderly people face difficulties using advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) due to complex interfaces. On top of that, the need to park closer to their destination is increasingly difficult due to the growing number of vehicles and decreasing number of parking spaces in cities.

Physically disabled people, especially those with severe disabilities, can drive currently available vehicles with expensive adaptations, or are unable to drive at all. The situation is similar for people with cognitive disabilities.

Based on a series of workshops with visually impaired people, a recent Swedish study entitled Automation for increased accessibility? financed

by Drive Sweden, identified a range of challenges that they face daily, including the difficulty to plan ahead while using mobility services or when transferring from one mode of transportation to another, lack of announcements at stops, lack of information on baggage allowance, and difficulty countering abrupt movements in a bus or tram (Figure 1).

It is also evident that access to mobility differs depending on factors such as city design, culture,

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income, degree of new infrastructure and regional economic status. From this, it follows that mobility needs to be improved from several aspects, and across the entire trip.

High expectations are placed on automated vehicles Automated vehicles, and the mobility services based on them, are expected to address many of these transportation issues for those with limited mobility. In this context, the World Economic Forum states: “The elderly, children and people with disabilities can make use of new end-to-end mobility options”.

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 Similarly, the Coalition for Future Mobility, a 37-strong group advocating for safety and independence through autonomous vehicles, suggests that full automation offers more personal freedom: “People with disabilities, like the blind, are capable of self-sufficiency, and highly automated vehicles can help them live the life they want.” It is also emphasised that automated vehicles can enhance independence for seniors and improve comfort. According to Bosch’s recent survey Shifting Into Gear: New Car Buyers’ Preferences and Expectations with Automated Vehicle, nearly 50% of 1,000 respondents believed automated vehicles will offer the best in passenger comfort.

Do automated vehicles live up to these expectations?

The current development of automated vehicles and new mobility services based on them makes several of these expectations questionable.

Prototype autonomous driving systems are frequently installed in existing vehicle models that are typically not designed with elderly and disabled people in mind. While fully automated shared shuttles could meet some of their needs, the problem of entering such vehicles without support from the human driver is still unsolved.

Due to road design and lack of parking spaces along streets, current on-demand services typically stop on the street for

customer drop off and pick up, and it is not unlikely that the corresponding automated services will adopt a similar behavior.

While this may be convenient for many people, it would be highly unsuitable for children, the elderly and disabled people.

Furthermore, several stakeholders have demonstrated ‘first and last mile’ services running along predefined routes. For many people this would not be an option as it still requires walking and navigating in traffic. Related to this, a topic that is still under debate is the interaction with automated vehicles and the feeling of safety when encountering them.

It is also alarming that automated vehicles and corresponding mobility services are today mainly piloted in wealthier areas with relatively good infrastructure and access to public transportation (Figure 2). This may impact how much of the population they will actually serve, and whether they will reduce exclusion and inequality.

© RISE Research Institutes of Sweden

This is largely in line with the expectations of visually impaired people highlighted in the Swedish study Automation for increased accessibility?, where it became evident that mobility services based on automation are expected to increase predictability,

accessibility, independence, flexibility, social acceptance, and perceived safety in traffic.

Figure 2. Automated vehicles are commonly piloted in wealthier areas with relatively good infrastructure and access to public transportation, such as within the S3 project in Gothenburg, Sweden

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Visually impaired people need support before, during and after a journey in a vehicle. Adopting a ‘whole-journey’ mindset and applying the universal design principle may help to address these needs

However, there are efforts being made to address issues of marginalised groups in society.

Some manufacturers are well aware of the above challenges and design solutions are under way. There are also research projects that address these issues. Still, the main focus is commonly on the vehicle rather than the whole journey.

The way toward a more inclusive mobility system Automated vehicles have a unique opportunity to provide independence, freedom and improved quality of life for those who have limited access to our present transportation system.

However, if the development continues along the current path, putting technology and certain segments of society in focus, only some of these opportunities are likely to come true.

To ensure that automated vehicles contribute to a more inclusive mobility system, the RISE Research Institutes of Sweden argues that designers, manufacturers and procurers need to adopt a ‘whole-journey’ mindset. Why is that? Based on

our experience of working with blind, deaf, and deaf-blind people, their support needs are as follows: Before the journey: Planning; reduced waiting times; improved accuracy; guiding to the vehicle and its entrance; support when entering the vehicle and information about the presence and seating of other passengers in the vehicle.

During the journey: Information about the plan and progress of the journey; the route; possible detours and unexpected events; notification on the required maintenance or refuelling of the vehicle; proper illumination for gaze or lip reading; information about transferring to other modalities and guidance.

After the journey: Information on the destination that has been reached; how to safely navigate the surrounding environment, and guidance to the final destination having exited the vehicle.

From this it follows that a multimodal mobility approach that takes into account the entire journey—before, during, and after traveling in a vehicle—is necessary.

Only when the service of a whole journey, from start to end, has been established will the

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individual and societal benefit of independence and freedom be fulfilled. This will require a tight and transparent collaboration between private and public stakeholders; otherwise it may be difficult to create a mutual understanding and identify beneficial opportunities.

These design challenges can be met by using the universal design principle. This means that solutions need to be usable by as many people as possible without the need for adaptation.

Adopting the universal design principle is also crucial to ensure that existing inequality and exclusion is not amplified.

Ideally, this would already be done from the early development phases of automated vehicles and new mobility services. To this end, potential users, including those that are commonly marginalised, should be involved in research and development projects to a much greater extent than today. By working side-byside with a mixture of users, we are likely to discover new horizons and reach out to a wider population. A more thoughtful selection of areas for piloting and deploying automated vehicles is also encouraged to ensure that these vehicles will be used by those who need them most.

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© Uber

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More stringent, more technical: Uber’s new look self-driving programme Uber’s foray into the world of self-driving cars was tarnished by tragedy, but its test cars are now back on the road after a lengthy hiatus. Freddie Holmes looks into what’s changed since that crash, and how ‘state of the art’ test protocols leave the company in a good place moving forward

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 n August 2016, Uber’s footing in the autonomous drive space became significantly more assured, having penned a deal with Volvo Cars to jointly develop the technology. In November 2017, a framework was established that would allow for an order of up to 24,000 Volvo vehicles for self-driving developments. In August 2018, Toyota Motor Corporation made a US$500m investment in the ride-share giant, along with a partnership that will see its technology installed in purpose-built Toyota vehicles.

Part of the attraction is Uber’s g r o u n d i n g i n r i d e - s h a r i n g —a segment it rejuvenated as an start-up back in 2010. The company has garnered swathes of data on how, where and when riders travel, how long each trip takes and the cost of doing so. In theory, you couldn’t ask for a better foundation in understanding how a robo-taxi service might work. “All that experience helps a tremendous amount,” Stephen Lesh, Head of Hardware and Vehicle Programmes at Uber Advanced Technologies Group (ATG), told M:bility. “There’s almost an infinite number of self-driving scenarios to solve, so we use that pool of data from the Uber ride-share network to prioritise our autonomous vehicle development.”

Having spent two decades working at Ford Motor Company, Lesh made the swap to Uber in October 2016. Ironically, Ford is now pushing to become a mobility company.

Based in Detroit, Lesh handles the development of Uber’s self-driving hardware and its integration within the vehicle, including the sensors, computers, electronics and connections, as well as all of the integration work with Uber’s OEM partners—power, cooling, mounting structures, vehicle safety and integrity.

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We use that pool of data from the Uber ride-share network to prioritise our autonomous vehicle development

© Uber

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As one of the world’s largest automakers, Ford gave Lesh valuable insight into the requirements of large-scale engineering programmes, and it is here that he underlines Uber’s lofty ambitions. “In the auto industry everything starts with a clay model, but develops to the point where every part in the vehicle can be mass produced in multiple assembly plants around the world,” he said. “Here at Uber we’re still in the development phase, but everything we do is aimed towards designs, components and assemblies that can eventually be mass produced.”

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Self-driving taxis The company has bulked out its expertise in various elements of selfdriving technology. Experts in anything from mapping and LiDAR to artificial intelligence (AI) and motion planning can be found at the ATG head office in Pittsburgh, where testing recently resumed on public roads—nine months after operations came to an abrupt halt following a fatal collision with a pedestrian.

On 18 March 2018, 49-year-old Elaine Herzberg was pushing her bicycle across the road in Tempe, Arizona. At around 10pm that

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© Uber

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There has been a comprehensive package of changes that we feel are now state-of-the-art in safe on-road testing

night, an Uber self-driving test vehicle, operating in autonomous mode and with a test driver behind the wheel, failed to avoid a head-on collision. The safety driver, seemingly distracted by an episode of The Voice, according to a 318-page police report, had also failed to notice Herzberg in time.

The event sent a shockwave across the entire autonomous drive sector. In conversation with various industry experts in recent years, the overriding opinion has been that a fatality during public testing was inevitable. However, very few had expected the day would come so early on.

In July 2018, Uber test vehicles resurfaced in Pittsburgh but under manual control. The company’s

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voluntary safety report was later issued to the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in November, with company Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi noting ‘deep regret’ for the event that transpired in Tempe. However, he conceded that whilst the firm is “committed to anticipating and managing risks that may come with this type of testing… We cannot—as no selfdriving developer can—anticipate and eliminate every one.”

As things stand, Uber’s test vehicles are back on public roads in Pittsburgh in autonomous mode, but under significantly stricter guidelines and with a number of stringent measures introduced across the board. “We felt it was very important before

we went back on the road that we not only made changes—having learned from experiences—but also that we publicly communicate those changes,” said Lesh.

A new driver monitoring system has been introduced to gauge the driver’s alertness, and whether they are looking at the road ahead. The system, says Lesh, can provide immediate feedback to the driver if they are adjudged to be distracted, with that information also sent back to a supervisory team at HQ. Enabled via a front-facing camera, a realtime feed of each trip can also be viewed remotely. The prior monitoring system was fairly rudimentary, simply recording a view of the cabin via a dashmounted camera.

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“ © Uber

The idea is for riders to manage their experience without interacting with a driver. Sound familiar? It should— it is the basis of all robo-taxi services

Speaking to M:bility in October 2018, Gabi Zijderveld of Bostonheadquartered Affectiva, noted that its AI-based driver monitoring system “can help to identify whether a safety driver testing an autonomous vehicle is truly engaged.” While Zijderveld could not name specific partners, she advised that the company has seen significant interest from various parties testing autonomous drive technology on public roads.

Every standard Volvo XC90 on sale today comes with automatic emergency braking (AEB).

However, in Uber’s modified XC90 test vehicles, certain driver assistance features—including AEB—were disabled. Uber test vehicles now utilise the vehicle’s collision mitigation system, which is engaged regardless of whether the car is in Uber’s self defined ‘manual’ or ‘auto’ driving mode.

An extra safety driver, or ‘Mission Specialist’, has also been added to each vehicle. “They can work with each other to maintain alertness,” explained Lesh. In addition, a more extensive training and selection process for its Mission Specialists has been employed. “We created a new job description that was more technical to source people with the skill-sets that better understand how the vehicles work and behave in certain situations,” he explained. An advert posted in January 2019 described the role as being ‘responsible for monitoring all systems in the vehicle’ and ‘providing clear and concise feedback to developers.’

Much like any commercial driving role, hours of service—how long a driver can be in the vehicle before a break is legally required—have also been limited. Driver fatigue is

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a leading cause of heavy truck crashes globally, and the trend has also been recognised in the burgeoning market of self-driving test vehicles. “There has been a comprehensive package of changes that we feel are now state-of-the-art in safe on-road testing,” said Lesh.

In Pittsburgh, the cars run on a set loop known as an ‘operational domain’, passing a number of Uber’s engineering facilities on the way. The loop has been selected as it contains traffic scenarios the self-driving software has passed in simulation and during closed track tests.

Only until the car has passed both sets of tests can it run on the road. In addition, the cars do not drive the loop during inclement weather such as snow or ice. In San Francisco and Toronto—Uber’s other test beds— autonomous test cars are on the

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© Uber

It’ll never be an exciting experience, and any commute that’s rather boring is probably a good one

road but only in ‘manual mode.’ It is a somewhat confusing expression, which Lesh is keen to clear up.

behind the scenes are also working hard to craft the user experience.

The user experience

Even with the current Uber app, a focus has been placed on creating a consistent customer service, allowing riders to change their destination mid-drive, rate how the trip is going or share their route with friends. Then there is the cashless payment system, with a ride ordered and paid for via a smartphone. The idea, says Lesh, is for riders to manage their experience without interacting with a driver. Sound familiar? It should—it is the basis of all proposed robo-taxi services so far.

“Uber today has already made significant efforts to automate the customer experience. Not having a driver in the car will be a final step, but it won’t be the first time that Uber has tried to automate parts of the customer experience,” he explained.

While the focus is on ensuring public road tests resume without incident, engineering teams

Automating the customer experience is one thing, but removing the driver entirely is a

“With manual testing, the sensor suite and computer are fully up and running, taking in data just as they would in autonomous mode,” he explained, “but the vehicle is controlled by our Mission Specialists.” This, he says, allows Uber to gather data from the on-board LiDAR, camera and radar sensors, which can then be leveraged by computer simulation programmes. With sensors continuously scanning the surrounding environment, it also aids the development of high-definition maps, which give the car a better idea of where it is on the road.

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different story. With a traditional Uber, there is still an option to interact with the driver if necessary; the rider can observe his or her driving style, whether they are distracted and if they have recognised a potential hazard ahead. Replicating the core elements of a comfortable journey will be pivotal for any driverless service. “This will be especially true early on, when customers are trying to build up comfort with the technology,” said Lesh.

“We’ve been experimenting with displays that show a primarily LiDAR-generated view of what the vehicle sees— identifying vehicles and pedestrians and other things,” he continued. “It brings comfort to the passenger. They can see that the vehicle has spotted another car nudging out of an intersection, or that a pedestrian might step out from the crosswalk. We’re still experimenting with what kind of information would be useful for the rider in order to become comfortable.”

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 Buckle up – it’s going to be a boring ride Driverless cabs present an interesting dynamic in which comfort will be defined not only physically, but also emotionally.

To achieve the former, engineers can tweak the vehicle’s handling,

respond to the actions of other road users. That type of thinking is how we are programming our vehicles,” explained Lesh.

going to be very difficult to have a self-driving car operate, potentially ever,” said Lesh. “Human drivers could do those trips instead.”

The difficulty is that a ‘good’ driver is subjective; while some may prefer a brisk drive, others may feel unsafe. “This is an extremely important issue for selfdriving technology. The industry as a whole needs to collaborate on

One use case for driverless cars has arisen in the food delivery industry.

Ford and Toyota have both voiced an interest in using driverless cars to deliver pizza, and Uber Eats could prove an early use case for autonomous vehicles outside of

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Once the self-driving technology is fully proven out, it’s easy to see how it could be extended to other parts of the Uber business

change the seating arrangement and provide individual air conditioning zones. For the latter, a dull drive is almost the desired effect. “Our vehicles are programmed to drive safely, cautiously and always within the law, which tends to make them very boring. It’ll never be an exciting experience, and any commute that’s rather boring is probably a good one,” said Lesh.

“There will be a curve of acceptance. Riders will be excited at first, and once they see it performing safely, reliably and very much like a normal car, it becomes boring.”

Part of that comes down to ensuring the ride is essentially uneventful—you simply get in and get out without incident. This can only be facilitated if the system itself is cautious, predictive and quick to respond. “My driving instructor always talked about being alert, cautious and able to

a set of metrics that define what self-driving is,” he said. “That will go far beyond factors like cornering speed, but if we’re really going to get this technology on the road, we must have an industry standard. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done on that.”

Don’t bin the bread and butter While the plan is not to supplant human-driven Ubers—the bread and butter of the business— numerous opportunities for driverless services are becoming clear. This view is not exclusive to Uber; various players have agreed that autonomous vehicles will form an additional part of the broader transportation network, running alongside traditional taxis, privately owned cars, trains, buses and even e-scooters. “There are certain operational domains where it’s

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ride-sharing. “We’ve had a lot of discussions around that, and what else we could do with the technology,” said Lesh. “Right now our focus is on the core ride-share business, but once the self-driving technology is fully proven out it is easy to see how it could be extended to other parts of the Uber business.”

Uber is not alone in its pursuits, with countless test programmes across Europe and the US already underway. As of January 2019, more than 60 individual players hold licenses to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in California alone. In China, Baidu continues to refine its Apollo platform, which is notably being leveraged by Ford and Daimler in the country. Delphi-owned nuTonomy ran an autonomous cab service in Singapore’s onenorth business district back in August 2016, with a paid-for service planned for 2019.

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A Swede growing in Tesla's back yard: Polestar goes EV

Pictured: Polestar 2

© Polestar

Volvo’s performance offspring, Polestar, looks to be one of a few brands realistically competing in the premium performance EV space. Armed with the Geely-owned automaker’s backing and a wealth of shared technologies, the brand is set to change the negative perception of electrified vehicles. Freddie Holmes speaks to Polestar’s Head of Product, Christian Samson, to find out more

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It is a segment that has attracted significant attention, both from household names and new entrants into the space such as Byton, Faraday Future, Fisker, Rivian and Nio. An aura of scepticism has surrounded many of these start-ups, often armed with little more than a proof-ofconcept and in some cases, without a factory in place.

Questions remain as to whether these fresh faces will make it, or crash out. Will the flow of funds eventually stymy as investors lose heart, and if these vehicles do make it to production, will it be an attractive ownership experience?

A national servicing network, mechanical reliability and strong residual values are part and parcel for any new brand to succeed.

A strong foundation In many ways, Polestar launches with a strong reputation already in hand, and with Volvo Cars as a parent company, there is arguably little need to approach with caution. As of 2019 Volvo will electrify its entire product line up, seeing the portfolio flush with mild-hybrids, battery electric models and everything in

© Polestar

n July 2015, Volvo Cars acquired Polestar, a tuning company that has long been the Swedish automaker’s partner of choice for high-performance engineering.

Originally tasked with transforming existing Volvo models into track-ready road cars, the Polestar brand has been revived—and this time with a charging cable. It is no longer only about boost and bite, but also driving range, plugging in and saving the planet. Volvo’s underpinnings remain distinct, but the new-look Polestar now sits as a standalone hybrid and electric performance brand.

The Polestar 1, a high-performance plug-in hybrid

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We have very clear and ambitious goals that will position our brand as a forerunner in the industry’s shift to electric cars

between. It is a wealth of resources of which Polestar can leverage to great effect.

from the outset—we are proud to have Volvo as one of our parent companies.”

“Having Volvo as one of our parent companies has many benefits for Polestar. It gives us immediate scale with expertise in vehicle design, research and development and manufacturing to be able to bring our cars to market successfully from the very beginning,” Christian Samson, Head of Product at Polestar, told M:bility. “Volvo’s excellent reputation with customers, media and the industry as a whole also gives us advantages and credibility

Samson has nearly 15 years’ experience with Volvo Car Group, serving in various design roles and more recently as project lead for the Volvo XC40. A former Saab and BMW engineer, he is now tasked with overseeing the continued development of Polestar’s current batch of models, namely the 1, 2 and 3.

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Polestar has been known for its performance credentials since the 1990s, and the brand will not only

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“ © Polestar

Bringing additional models into the premium electric segment drives competition and awareness amongst customers that a premium electric car is a product to consider

have to carry that mantra on, but also win over electrification sceptics. The ‘new’ Polestar, says Samson, is now an electric performance brand. “Our knowledge and experience from the past has enabled us to bring triedand-trusted performance elements to our electric performance cars,” he explained. “For Polestar, electric performance is about more than just a 0-100 km/h sprint time, because any high-powered EV is going to be quick in a straight line.

We also want to deliver the most engaging levels of driving dynamics, with excellent suspension, braking and chassis characteristics.”

Polestar’s chief test driver, Joakim Rydholm, also happens to be a chassis-tuning expert, having developed all Polestar-related Volvo models in the past as well as all new Polestar cars.

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Its first model, the Polestar 1, is a high-performance plug-in hybrid (PHEV). In January, Geely announced that more than 500 pre-orders had been registered.

Its second model, the Polestar 2, is a ‘fastback’ EV with more than 400hp. It was revealed in February. Following will be the Polestar 3, a fully electric SUV with a low roofline and wide stance designed to emphasise the brand’s performance positioning.

It will sit between the Polestar 1 and 2 in terms of price and volume, and will be revealed around 2021. Looking further down the pipeline, he advised that the model line-up will continue to expand. “The future is very bright for Polestar and we will be a portfolio brand within the next six years or so,” said Samson. “We have very clear and ambitious

goals that will position our brand as a forerunner in the industry’s shift to electric cars.”

‘Tesla killer’ has become a lazy industry expression for any new entrant into the EV space, regardless of vehicle segment or price bracket. Prior to its reveal in February, the Polestar 2 had also attracted comparisons with the Tesla Model 3, which has been presented as a mass market electric vehicle (EV). It would seem that in this case, the comparisons are fair.

“The Tesla Model 3 is the only other EV on the market with similar characteristics to Polestar 2, in terms of body style, market segment and price,” Samson confirmed. “Polestar 2 brings a sharper, more focussed approach to the segment, with very clear performance credentials. We also

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 believe that bringing additional models into the premium electric segment drives competition and in turn, awareness amongst customers that a premium electric car is a product they should consider.”

A common criticism levelled at EVs is the discrepancy between a vehicle’s stated driving range and that which can be achieved in the real-world. EVs are inherently efficient at low speeds; gentle town driving with high regenerative braking can even ‘add’ miles to the range. By comparison, highway driving can see the estimated range plummet.

“Highway driving just requires more energy than slow driving, and this is a fact that is disregarded by many EV drivers, simply because combustion engines are far more efficient on the highway,” says Wenzel Prochazka, Product Manager of Battery Systems at engineering service provider AVL. The issue has even led to the rejuvenation of the term ‘hypermiling’, originally coined by drivers looking to ramp up miles per gallon. Extreme examples have seen some EVs add hundreds of miles onto the manufacturer’s stated driving range. In July 2018, a Tesla Model 3 drove more than 600 miles on a single charge, albeit at an average speed of 36kph (22mph).

“As engineers of electric vehicles we have seen high levels of efficiency even in highway driving, on top of the obvious performance advantages of electric drivetrains,” said Samson.

Early leaders in the EV space such as Renault and Nissan have seen success with models that arguably place performance fairly low on the list of priorities, and instead focus on day-to-day usability. The

© Polestar

EV range

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Much attention has been focussed on aerodynamic efficiency to ensure that we minimise drag and maximise range

Renault Zoe, for example, accelerates from 0 to 60 miles per hour in around 12 seconds.

However, for a manufacturer promising the best of both worlds, balancing the performance expected from a Polestar model with the long-range efficiency of a high-end vehicle is a tall order.

“For Polestar, performance is about more than just straight-line acceleration and speed. We engineer our cars to deliver great driving dynamics during cornering and braking too, delivering an allround performance product,” said Samson. “As for highway motoring, drivers still need to remain within

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the speed limits—highways aren’t necessarily performance environments. Much attention has been focussed on aerodynamic efficiency to ensure that we minimise drag and maximise range. All of Polestar’s electric cars will deliver real-world usable range sufficient for every type of journey, and when the driver is ready to stop and take a rest, we will ensure they have access to the charging infrastructure that supports them on their journey.”

The Polestar 2 should have a 500km (310 mile) range based on the WLTP cycle in Europe, and an EPA-rated 275 miles in the US.

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© Polestar

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With Volvo Cars’ backing, Polestar is in an enviable position

Construction of the Polestar Production Centre in Chengdu, China—a state-of-the-art factory that will produce the Polestar 1— began in January.

regulations. The government has taken a strict stance on vehicle emissions, with automakers tasked to meet a minimum quota of new energy vehicles (NEVs) each year.

By 2025, around 20% of all new cars sold in the country will come with a charging cable.

China has long been seen as the world’s largest market for plug-in vehicles, not only in terms of annual sales but also due to

“It is an undeniable fact that we have seen rapid development of NEVs since 2011,” said Zhong Zaimin, Vice Dean at Tongji

Looking to China

University’s School of Automotive Studies during a press event in Shanghai. “The electrification of transportation is an inevitable choice.” He noted that while some within the industry see the PHEV as a “makeshift solution”, the Chinese government views it as a critical part to the policy. “With longer mileage, ICEs will eventually be phased out.

Plug-in hybrids are not the ideal solution, but China does not see it as a short-term solution,” added

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One of our parent companies, Geely, is Chinese, which presents advantages from a regulatory and legislative point of view

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© Polestar

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The Polestar 2 is the brand’s first pure EV

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The Tesla Model 3 is the only other EV on the market with similar characteristics to Polestar 2, in terms of body style, market segment and price… Polestar 2 brings a sharper, more focussed approach to the segment

Zaimin. For example, the BYD Qin, a PHEV with around 40 miles of electric driving range, is “the perfect solution” in China today, as most owners simply rely on the battery for short trips around the city, and recharge whenever the opportunity arises. “According to our analysis, Qin owners use 90% of their time in electric power, and use the ICE only 10% of the time. They have a habit of charging as often as possible to use electric energy.”

For Polestar, which is owned by Chinese giant Geely, these trends

bode well as the company ramps up to launch in its home market.

“China is of course the world’s fastest-growing EV market and we expect high demand for our cars in the country,” said Samson. “It makes sense, then, to produce the cars closest to the highest demand.” There are other benefits to setting up in Chengdu, he continued, “the most obvious of which is that one of our parent companies, Geely, is Chinese, which presents advantages from a regulatory and legislative point of view.”

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Rooted in the burgeoning Chinese market and unhampered by the constraints associated with most start-ups in the EV space, the brand appears to be in an enviable position. Financially sturdy and with an arsenal of electric powertrain components at its disposal, it will be interesting to see how Polestar fares following product launches over the next few years and beyond. Comparisons to Tesla are often tenuous, but in the case of the Polestar 2 there is clear competition.

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Š TuSimple

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US gives self-driving trucks the green light The US government has said it will do what it takes to make self-driving trucks a reality, and developers must now decide how best to deliver the technology. Xavier Boucherat speaks to TuSimple, the Chinese start-up that is already hauling paid-for loads across Arizona

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n October 2018, the US Department of Transportation (DOT) published Preparing for the Future of Transportation: Automated Vehicle 3.0 (AV3.0), building on previous guidance to outline its vision for transport beyond passenger cars. It acknowledges the potential for automation to transform freight transportation, and states its goals moving forward will be to modernise regulations, and encourage a consistent regulatory environment across constituent states. For example, it suggests certain states could modify laws concerning vehicle following distance, as these could hamper platooning applications.

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TuSimple is running its own fleet services, making up to five deliveries a day for 12 customers

This is not to say that TuSimple has already perfected its offering.

The mild tempering of expectations for self-driving that has followed in the wake of the self-driving Uber crash in March 2018 has illustrated that technical challenges remain for developers, such as object detection in all conditions and dealing with extreme but safety-critical corner cases. But whilst ten years ago the thought of self-driving semis would have made many scoff, today the self-driving truck appears tantalisingly close, and the

© TuSimple

Such commitments to eradicating regulatory barriers are exciting for autonomous truck developers such as TuSimple. Chuck Price, Chief Product Officer at the US and China-based company, says regulatory matters now represent perhaps the biggest obstacle to the self-driving roll-out across the US. “Right now, the regulatory environment across the different states is a patchwork,” he explains. “TuSimple is hoping for a 50-state solution, and the launch of the AV3.0 initiative by the DOT gives us hope. This, along with other initiatives, will reduce the burden of getting the technology accepted.” the DOT’s AV3.0 means those with the final say—the government—are fully on board.

“TuSimple has moved beyond the research phase,” says Price.

“This is no longer rocket science, but a matter of engineering.” The figures appear to back this up.

TuSimple has recently announced unicorn status, following its Series D funding round. Funds will grow the company’s fleet to 50 trucks by June 2019, taking testing out of Arizona and into Texas. Its

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strategy is two-fold: the company is running its own fleet services, making up to five deliveries a day for 12 customers. At the same time, it is working with truckmakers and Tier 1s on joint production programmes.

However, exactly how the selfdriving future will play out remains to be seen. Different companies are proposing different visions, and cultivating different ideas for applications. For TuSimple, little short of full autonomy will suffice.

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© TuSimple

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Sensor technology is advancing quite rapidly, and the ability to be able to see in extremely low light conditions is really improving

My way or the highway Ike Robotics is one of the latest arrivals to the self-driving truck market. Its proposition is to ‘descope’ the autonomous challenge by strictly limiting self-driving applications that use its technology to the highway. Chief Executive Alden Woodrow, the former lead for Uber’s self-driving truck programme prior to its

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closure, has previously told Wired magazine that trucks fitted with Ike’s technology “won’t take a single right turn off the highway”.

All other driving tasks will be handled by a driver.

It makes sense to some: the highway is an infinitely less complex environment than a built up urban centre, with long straight roads, largely clear markings and virtually no pedestrians nor traffic light infrastructure. What’s more, freight trucks will spend much of

their driving lives on the highway. Ike’s model envisions transfer hubs, directly off the highway, much like a service station. Here, humans can take the wheel, or swap out the selfdriving cab for their own, and complete the journey.

The problem with the transfer hub model, says Price, is that it would require an infrastructure overhaul.

“A transfer hub is basically a giant parking lot right next to the highway,” says Price. “The idea

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 sounds good in theory, but let’s imagine the process being executed for one hundred trucks at a time. Straight away you need 100 acres of land, security needs to be built up, and then there’s the task of managing this process for large numbers of trucks. It starts to look like a port, and we know what port operations look like: they’re nightmares.”

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A vehicle that cannot operate autonomously off the highway doesn’t solve the driver shortage issue for our customers

What’s more, anything less than full autonomy, he argues, doesn’t solve one of the main challenges facing the trucking industry today: a chronic driver shortage. Today’s driver population is already ageing, with the average age of US drivers up to around 55 years. Meanwhile, freight transport demand continues to grow dramatically. “You will not find depots on the highway,” says Price. “Sometimes, they’re several miles off. And so a vehicle that cannot operate autonomously off the highway doesn’t solve the driver shortage issue for our customers.

The bar is high Of course, designing a solution which can navigate off-the-highway is a far more challenging technical feat. Key to enabling depot travel will be additional capabilities, says Price, such as vehicle monitoring and recovery services. Other valueadd services, such as autonomous refuelling, will form an important part of the offer.

The other crucial challenge is sensors. TuSimple favours cameras, which Price argues have a longer range than LiDAR: whilst the latter can only achieve

© TuSimple

“Fleets need a solution that adds significant value,” he continues, “or there’s no point in adopting it. If instead what it’s doing is adding significant burden without a commensurate dramatic reduction in cost, it’s not worthwhile to them.”

effective distance of 100 metres, he says, cameras can provide ten times that at a thousand metres, enabling trucks to reach full speed on the highway. Should a 40-tonne articulated truck encounter a braking event with only a hundred metres’ notice on the highway, it may already be too late. But cameras are often cited as being susceptible to failure, whether through weather or otherwise. Price believes TuSimple has found a workaround: “We have trained our AI system to be able to see through inclement conditions such as rain and dust,” he says.

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“There is also the secondary radar system. Sensor technology is advancing quite rapidly, and the ability to be able to see in extremely low light conditions is really improving.”

In short, Price is confident that the technology is almost there. Much remains to be done, not least further validation and additional testing miles for the full confidence of regulators. Whilst AV3.0 may demonstrate enthusiasm on their part, it will be a foolish government that rushes the self-driving agenda before it is fully ready, as perhaps demonstrated last March in Arizona.

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Tata Motors on fulfilling India’s electric dream Freddie Holmes speaks to Guenter Butschek about the brand’s goal to create an e-mobility ecosystem—but is it just a pipedream?

I

ndia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and it is not expected to slow down any time soon. Current forecasts suggest the country’s GDP will grow by 7.5% between 2019 and 2020, with the automotive industry proving a strong economic engine.

This may be best expressed by the fact that it currently accounts for 50% of the GDP contributed by manufacturing in India.

This growth is overlaid with a number of challenges, some of which are immediately apparent.

Pollution, traffic congestion and infrastructure limitations underpin some of the issues facing both

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“

India’s air pollution is extremely serious - Guenter Butschek, Chief Executive, Tata Motors

industry and consumer in India. In 2018, the World Health Organization (WHO) found that 14 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world are in India. Gridlocked

roads can lead to stationary traffic for hours. An ageing fleet and less stringent emissions standards have created dangerous living conditions for many urbanites.

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 To understand how these challenges affect one of the country’s most long-standing domestic manufacturers, M:bility visited Tata Motors to speak with its Chief Executive, Guenter Butschek.

An industry veteran and Daimler executive for more than two decades, he has held the top job at Tata Motors since 2016. “India’s air pollution is extremely serious,” he said, highlighting the sky-high levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) in some of India’s major cities. In Delhi, a reading of 119 was registered between May and June of 2018. “Any reading higher than 70 is considered to bring a halt to any kind of outdoor activity,” explained Butschek. “Can you even imagine going running, taking one deep breath after another?”

Government support In 2015, the Indian government launched the FAME scheme (Faster Adoption & Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) to incentivise the purchase of electrified two- and three-wheelers, passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Then in 2016, it laid out ambitious plans to go all electric by 2030, signalling a desire to dramatically cut back on fossil fuel use and reverse damaging levels of pollution. Scepticism across the board saw this strategy amended to just 30% of vehicles within the same timeframe. Local media reported that the government had ‘finally woken up’.

The contract outlined that such EVs must have a range of 130km (80 miles) on a full charge, the ability to fully recharge in six hours and a ‘fast charge’ option of 90 minutes.

The vehicles were to be supplied in phases of 500 vehicles at a time, with the first delivery deadline set for 30 November 2017. In June 2018, it was reported that many government officials had refused to use the vehicles, alleging that realworld driving range was closer to 80km on a single charge. Only 150 or so EVs had been procured by this point, according to the state body, which cited teething pains related to charging infrastructure and user scepticism of the technology. Tata strongly refuted these claims, noting: “We have not heard range as a major concern.”

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The expression ‘get it right in India and you are fit for the rest of the world’ may be no more true than in the case of EVs

Much like other markets where urban pollution is spiralling, the answer is deemed to come with a charging cable, and has prompted Tata Motors to promote an electric vehicle (EV) offensive. It is a bold statement for an emerging market in which new vehicles remain relatively low-tech in comparison to markets such as Europe, the US and Japan. The expression ‘get it right in India and you are fit for the rest of the world’ may be no more true than in the case of EVs. To deploy a business model in India that is yet to flourish even in the most developed markets is no mean feat.

Early initiatives appeared promising. Tata Motors, also known as TaMo, entered a bidding war with domestic competitor Mahindra over a contract to supply EVs to government officials. In November 2017, TaMo announced it had bagged a contract to supply up to 10,000 EVs to the Energy Efficiency Services (EESL), along with Mahindra. “As of now, we will be selling 6,500 to 7,000 units and if the other company (Mahindra) opts out, we will lap up the rest of the order as well,” noted Tata’s Butschek at the time.

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Previously in March 2018, the Union Minister of State Power and New & Renewable Energy had launched the National E-Mobility Programme, which aims to stimulate the ‘entire e-mobility ecosystem’. Automakers, charging infrastructure companies, fleet operators, service providers and various other players would now be taken into account, and would be supported by continued procurement of EVs from the EESL agency. More recently, the current administration has held strong on its intentions to transition India toward EVs. In January, import

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duties were cut to just 10% for ‘unassembled’ EVs brought into the country, with potential job creation and stimulation of the EV market deemed attractive. Complete EVs will see a 25% import duty by comparison. Amid the backdrop of looming national elections, in February 2019 the government presented an interim budget for the 2019-2020 financial year. Speaking at the announcement, Piyush Goyal, Interim Finance Minister, spoke of how India will “lead the world in the transport revolution through electric vehicles.”

The second phase of the FAME programme—dubbed FAME 2—was expected to bring further subsidies for EVs and also, to a lesser degree, for charging infrastructure. However, plans were quashed after a seemingly last-minute about-turn. “FAME 1 was purely focussed on the OEMs, with clear subsidies provided for mild hybrid solutions up to EVs. The new scheme was close to approval with the same approach, but all of a sudden the government stopped it,” Butschek explained.

A rare spot of blue sky above the Tata Lake House in Pune

over what had been discussed so far, and would like to refine his opinion in order to really accelerate the adaptation to electrification. Afterwards, we learned that FAME 2 will not just incentivise vehicles, but also infrastructure and the localisation of EV-specific components, such as batteries,” he continued. “Today,

“

You need to join hands with a larger set of players in order to build the ecosystem

The turnaround came in September 2018 following the MOVE Summit held in New Delhi—a “high calibre event” according to Butschek.

“We all expected that the government would announce FAME 2, but Prime Minister Modi said he had certain question marks

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the battery is the single largest cost proposition of an EV, and we either have to source it from South Korea or China. To really accelerate developments, much can be done with the money that goes into import duties from batteries, as part of a concerted effort between the government and the industry.”

©Freddie Holmes

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Playing a greater part Speaking to M:bility from the tranquil Tata Motors Lake House, a picturesque site populated by lush greenery, exotic birds and water features, Butschek explained how Tata Motors aims to lead the EV revolution in India. A far cry from the hustle and bustle of the industrial belt in which it sits, the location is a stark reminder of what is at risk from rising pollution. Beyond the lake, towering skyscrapers are obscured by a thick haze of smog, but just a couple of hours outside of the city, the air turns from a murky grey to bright blue. If ever there was motivation to go EV, it is hidden in the smog of the industrial hotbeds of India’s megacities.

Vehicle purchase incentives alone will not be enough, and reliable and well-placed charging infrastructure could prove the most persuasive in luring fleets and consumers to EVs. Traditionally, an automaker would not have to provide fuel for its customers—be it gasoline or diesel—but could automakers

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 become closely involved, and invested, in the development of infrastructure in order to facilitate India’s electric dream?

“Not necessarily the automaker, but you at least need to join hands with a larger set of players in order to build the ecosystem,” affirmed Butschek. “Yes, you need to think much broader, but you do not necessarily need to be the one who provides all of the services required in this ecosystem.” In Tata Motors’ case, the company plans to leverage its ties with other companies within the Tata Group, such as Tata Power. The company has already established charging stations in Mumbai, Delhi and Hyderabad in commercial, office and public locations, with thousands more planned. There was no debate as to whether Tata Power would build charging stations, continued Butschek. “It immediately came to mind. Just blankly producing electric vehicles and expecting that somebody else will develop the infrastructure is a thought process we stopped relatively early in our considerations. We need to bring momentum through discussion with the government.”

Tata Motors is not the only player pushing EV alternatives for the domestic market. Alongside Mahindra are Maruti Suzuki, Toyota, Volvo Cars, Hyundai and Kia, all with solutions in the works. Butschek recognised that

“

The battery is the single largest cost proposition of an EV... We either have to source it from South Korea or China

it will take a collective effort of the incumbent automotive industry, state and new players to meet long-term targets. “This is a race where no single front-runner can win. It needs to be inclusive, and there needs to be a clear message and direction coming from the government—all the way to players that we might not even have on our ‘players map’ today,” he said. New service offerings could be required in order to differentiate Tata Motors from its competition, he noted.

Catering to Indian needs The signs are encouraging, and it is clear that a focus is also on creating an attractive product, and not only on pumping out EVs to meet the quota. At Tata Motors’ Pune plant, a stone’s throw from the Lake House, engineers have modified advanced testing

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The price must be right for any hope of achieving an e-mobility ecosystem

An Automotive World publication

chambers to refine the NVH qualities of its electric powertrains. A test track outside the passenger vehicle production line also subjects new models to extreme road conditions, closely mimicking Indian highways.

But however well engineered, an EV will only be as attractive as its supporting charging network.

This is expected to remain a sticking point for years to come despite government support. The move to become a cashless society does bode well for the tap-and-go nature of EV charging, however, and if stations can be strategically located off-street and away from key congestion areas, India’s EV dream may eventually become a reality.

There remains the challenge of finding space to deploy dedicated charging ranks, however. In crowded megacities such as Mumbai, Pune and New Delhi, space is at a premium as streets struggle to contain the effects of rapid urbanisation. Then there is consumer spending power, which remains extremely low for many residents in even the most affluent cities. Next door to one of Mumbai’s business districts sits one of the largest hand clothes washing operations in India.

Sandwiched between slums, it illustrates the vast gap between the rich and the poor, and that the price must be right for any hope of achieving an e-mobility ecosystem.

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Š Hyundai

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Could brain power be the new car key?

With advances in biometric technology, the human body becomes the key to the vehicle and the challenge of authentication steps up a gear. By Megan Lampinen

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An Automotive World publication

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

B

iometric recognition systems are rapidly gaining ground across numerous industries, and automotive is no exception.

Automakers and suppliers are actively exploring ways to improve the in-vehicle experience for drivers and passengers, both in terms of safety and convenience. Initial applications have centred around unlocking and starting the vehicle, but as the industry gradually moves towards shared and autonomous mobility, these could prove just the tip of the iceberg.

Fingerprints and facial recognition With biometric authentication, the owner’s body essentially becomes the key to the vehicle. Hyundai is preparing to introduce fingerprint access on the 2019 Santa Fe. A sensor on the door handle scans the driver's fingerprint and then unlocks the door. A scanning sensor on the ignition allows the driver to start the vehicle. Once entry is granted, biometrics can be harnessed to personalise the invehicle experience as well.

Hyundai intends to enhance this application in the near future so the driver's fingerprint can also be used to automatically adjust the seat position, steering wheel position, and angle of the rear-view mirror based on personalised settings.

Biometrics is also being used in real-time to detect the state of the driver, particularly to determine if he is distracted or fatigued.

Harman, now a Samsung company, is developing a digital assistant system that measures an individual's pupils and looks at facial expressions to determine their mood. "Your pupils can give insight into your cognitive mode," explained Jason Johnson, Director of User Experience Design &

Studio Lead – Detroit/Novi, at Harman. "They reflect not what you’re thinking but how much you’re thinking, and how much activity is happening." If the system detects that the driver is highly stressed, for example, it may decide to delay relaying a non-urgent message about wiper fluid levels, for example.

driver’s breathing starts to increase, it understands he is stressed and responds to that. Or maybe it just soothes the driver and doesn't offer too much nonessential information," he predicted. "Eventually, these are the sorts of things that biometrics and artificial intelligence will do for you."

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So far, all biometric systems have been easily hacked or breached because they make use of a database or because they compare images

Nuance Communications is also looking to harness biometric data to determine the driver's emotional state. On this front it has been partnering with Affectiva, a specialist in artificial emotional intelligence (Emotion AI). Using a camera to view the driver's face, the system can then deduct his or her cognitive state.

That could determine exactly how and to what degree the digital assistant then interacts with the driver.

"Biometrics is a massive space," observed Krishna Jayaraman, Program Manager – Connectivity & Telematics in Frost & Sullivan's Automotive & Transportation practice. "It won't be long before these systems will be able to understand when a driver is stressed. Maybe the seatbelt will feature sensors to pick up on respiration and as soon as the

An Automotive World publication

Security from the inside Like many new technologies, some of these biometric systems raise concerns about potential hacking. Anyone with an identical twin faces a risk of having their vehicle stolen or used without permission. In some cases, a different makeup routine or a new beard could throw off the facial recognition system. What if an emergency arises and the owner needs to access or start the car immediately and can't wait for an official facial verification process?

"So far, all biometric systems have been easily hacked or breached because they make use of a database or because they compare images," commented Martin Zizi,

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Š Hyundai

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

“

Initial applications have centred around unlocking and starting the vehicle, but as the industry gradually moves towards shared and autonomous mobility, these could prove just the tip of the iceberg

Chief Executive of Aerendir, a biometric authentication developer.

"It’s very easy; there are more than 400 tutorials on the internet about this." With an abundance of instructional videos out there like 'Instructions on fooling facial recognition' and 'How to copy a fingerprint like a Spy', it's clear the current systems are far from fool proof. According to some videos, systems can be hacked with simple tools like PlayDoh and pressuresensitive tape combined with a lipstick print or a fingerprint.

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For Hyundai, the answer lies in capacitance recognition, which detects differences in the electricity level of various parts of the fingertip. The automaker estimates that the system has a one in 50,000 chance of granting access to someone other than the owner.

Silicon-Valley's Aerendir takes a similar inside-out approach to the challenge. Instead of looking to outside physical features, it taps into a person's nervous system activity, specifically the micro-

vibrational patterns in a user's hands. The company's NeuroPrint technology is based on proprioceptive neurophysiology.

"Muscle fibres are connected to the brain's neural network, and no two brains are alike," Zizi told M:bility. "We can start to play with this and use an individual's brain pattern to identify them."

These signals are generated within all individuals and uniquely shaped by their brain. They can be picked up by the incredibly sensitive

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 sensors in modern smartphones or tablets and authenticated by simply holding the device for three to four seconds, or less than one second if embedded into a car seat.

Importantly, Zizi claims that it is nearly impossible to hack. "The body is difficult to hack when you use a live signal like ours," he added.

The system operates entirely on the specific device involved, meaning that personal data need not be transferred to an external server during the authentication process.

This eliminates the possibility of interception via hackers.

someone loses consciousness, their muscle tone changes radically. The system could detect this," he added.

Assuming a future of autonomous vehicles, the system could potentially redirect the vehicle to a hospital for emergency medical treatment in the case of a crash or a general medical emergency. This could dramatically improve the chances of survival in urgent cases.

Emergency services require an average of 12-14 minutes to reach an incident site in an urban location.

Outside of the city the average is 17-

programme, we could bring the price of a dedicated chip down to US$0.20. If I were to make a do-ityourself kit, it would be around US$2-$3 because of the sensor and microcontroller. However, the future of this technology is to be fully embedded inside the electronic system of a car."

Towards autonomy In the longer term, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could make accurate identification

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No matter how a robot is programmed or the AI is refined, at the end of the day the AI is not alive and it has no heartbeat, it has no brain waves.

The fact that I’m alive is the final frontier between human and machine

NeuroPrint technology has been developed and is operational. It is currently being adapted to vehicles.

Safety bonus In addition to security, the NeuroPrint system also offers inherent safety benefits for drivers.

Along with brain activity it also picks up a driver's heartbeat, from which it can deduce the respiration rate. Combined with the data on muscle tone, this makes for a fullyfledged physiological monitoring system. Such a system could theoretically be used to safely stop a car when it detects the driver is unwell, perhaps suffering a heart attack or severely impacted by alcohol. "In the short time before

19 minutes. The brain can only survive for six to eight minutes without oxygen. "If the vehicle knows the occupant's physiology it could have the ability to triage," suggested Zizi. "It could then direct emergency responders on a priority basis. If it can move itself, it could drive towards the first responder."

Costs And it all stems from a cheap sensor costing less than a dollar. For the full system, Zizi estimates that it would add US$1-US$10 to the cost of a vehicle, depending on scale. "It's trivial compared to the rest of the car. We could even be quoted on ASIC (application specific integrated circuit), and because of the way we

An Automotive World publication

all the more important. Zizi is particularly concerned about the potential threat from AI robots and their ability to impersonate humans.

"In a world where everyone’s data has been shared online, even biometry eventually, what will prevent an AI bot from impersonating you, creating contracts on blockchain behind your back?" he asked. "The one thing that can prevent that is physiology. No matter how a robot is programmed or the AI is refined, at the end of the day the AI is not alive and it has no heartbeat, it has no brain waves. The fact that I’m alive is the final frontier between human and machine."

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© Waymo

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Consumer scepticism in autonomous vehicles remains unresolved Consumers are having a hard time learning to trust autonomous driving technology, and the human-machine interface (HMI) is partly to blame. By Derek Viita, Senior Analyst and Diane O’Neill, Director at Strategy Analytics’ UX Innovation Practice 46

An Automotive World publication

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

T

he development and spread of advanced ‘semi-automated’ features among personal vehicles has been bold. The fact that nonpremium consumers now have access to a feature which allows their car to steer itself into a parking space is nothing short of a triumph. But notwithstanding this achievement, the market for semi-automated and autonomous vehicles—either personal or through mobility services—has yet to be proven viable with actual consumers.

Only a narrow segment of consumers are interested in features that leverage self-driving technology; and most remain wary of automated driving features. In a situation exacerbated by the poor user experience (UX) of existing semi-automated features, such as park assist and automated highway driving systems, in addition to high-profile crashes and fatalities involving self-driving test vehicles, automakers have done little to nothing to address this problem thus far.

To drive consumer demand, it is not enough for semi-automated and autonomous vehicles just to be safe; they must also be practical and desirable.

Percentage change in consumer interest for automated driving features 2017 to 2018, by region 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12%

Fully Autonomous Driving

Autonomous Highway Driving

Lane Change Assist Traffic Jam Assist

W. Europe

Consumer interest is beginning to fracture The broader consumer market outside of the premium segment has been slow to warm to semi-

US

Autonomous Park Assist

China

automated driving features in large numbers, primarily due to a lack of trust in the technology.

Research by Strategy Analytics showed that after a pronounced decrease in 2016, interest in semi-automated and autonomous driving features rebounded in 2017, despite mixed levels of reported satisfaction.

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Only a narrow segment of consumers are interested in features that leverage self-driving technology

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 Ranking of reasons for lack of interest in self-driving taxi or ride-share, by region (2018) Do not yet trust self-driving tech

1

1

1

No use for such a service

2 (tie)

3

3

No interest in such a service

4

2

4 (tie)

No interest in self-driving tech

2 (tie)

4

6

Will never trust self-driving tech

5

5

8

Price is expected to be too high

6

6

4 (tie)

Vehicle quality concerns

8

8

2

Other transport is preferred

7

7

7 Source: Strategy Analytics

However, after several years of uniform increases and decreases, interest in these varied features has now begun to fracture, especially in the US and China.

Semi-automated driving functions no longer tick the right boxes for the premium class; consumers are now providing feedback on their usefulness and what we are learning is that not all features are equal. While interest in park assist is growing, particularly in the US, interest in traffic jam assist is dropping, particularly in Europe.

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Usefulness and usability are critical to gain trust Investigating further, Strategy Analytics found that there are two underlying reasons for the fracturing of interest in certain features, and the lack of trust many consumers have with them—especially in personal vehicles.

The interface design and usability of these features remains abysmal

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Firstly, the usefulness of these features remains questionable, particularly for systems such as traffic jam assist which require the user to ‘check in’ once every ten seconds. Such systems add no value to the enjoyment of the driving experience, and questionable value in terms of perceived safety. Secondly, the interface design and usability of these features remains abysmal, as system status and handoff/takeover methods are confusing not just to drivers—as Strategy Analytics' extensive benchmarking of these systems has proven—but to dealers as well, who cannot fully explain their functions or benefits.

These systems are also hindered by the lack of standardisation in how they are activated, how they behave, and even what they are called. A recent study by the American Automobile Association (AAA) found that semi-automated and other ADAS features have too many different names, which confuses consumers.

An Automotive World publication

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

“

It is not enough to simply build an automated transport programme and expect consumers to ‘flock’ to a service autonomous mobility services and personal autonomous vehicles: if consumers cannot see the value of each of these elements in autonomous vehicles, then there is no basis for consumer demand.

Practical usefulness also hinders automated shared transport

offered must be usable and practical for local use cases.

Moreover, just as Strategy Analytics has found with reactions to semi-automated driving systems, consumer scepticism toward automated transport in general remains unresolved.

Furthermore, consumer attitudes toward automated shared transport, such as taxis and buses, are no different. Consumer interest worldwide is extremely narrow because the practical usefulness of such services has yet to be proven to consumers beyond the early-adopter segment. In addition to not having a use for automated taxi or bus services, sceptical consumers do not yet trust automated transport technology. Consumers in China also show strong concern for the quality of the vehicles which might be utilised for such a service.

Scepticism is more Outlook Trust remains the elephant in than an issue of the room preventing widespread trust consumer demand. In order

In August 2018, a number of Arizona locals noted their frustration in sharing the road with autonomous test vehicles from Waymo’s self-driving taxi pilot. As such negative public feedback would illustrate, it is not enough to simply build an automated transport programme, roll out a charm offensive and expect consumers to ‘flock’ to a service. Supply will not create its own demand, and any service

But consumer scepticism is not only confined to trust. Strategy Analytics previously identified four major factors that consumers use to determine how to transport themselves: monetary cost, usability (as a function of availability, simplicity, and convenience), time or length of journey, and comfort.

to get consumers on board with fully automated driving and hasten the profitability of these services, providers need patronage from not just early adopters and willing beta testers, but from some portion of the large percentage of consumer base who are currently distrustful of the technology.

The importance of each individual factor can vary based on weather, cargo, the perceived safety of the environment, the urgency of the trip, and so forth.

But those overall decision factors are resilient. Plus, if a mobility service is too expensive for the use case, not available when or where it is needed, or is complex or unreliable to use, consumers are less likely to be satisfied, and unlikely to become loyal users.

This is wholly the case with

Large swathes of consumers, especially in the US and Western Europe, are still actively avoiding automated parking and driving technology.

Among these segments, a lack of trust is far and away the most prominent rationale for avoidance. An extensive human factors related overhaul of existing systems, and even pilot test systems at the human-machine interface (HMI) level, would go a long way toward addressing these issues.

An Automotive World publication

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Š Daimler

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Blind trust, culture clashes and robot empathy – Mercedes-Benz on autonomous cars Freddie Holmes speaks to Michael Hafner, Head of Automated Driving and Active Safety at Mercedes-Benz Cars

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An Automotive World publication

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

A

Autonomous shuttles such as these are edging further into the public eye, albeit the Urbanetic was limited to a single cordoned off lane in this case. Running alongside traffic on the Vegas Strip, the Urbanetic’s size becomes apparent: it is enormous. A bulbous roof protrudes well above nearby SUVs, and with no driver controls there is, in theory, room for 12 passengers. Bizarrely, the front headlights are almost identical to that of a Ford Transit van, and all that space is designed to ferry riders around the city— even predicting where crowd surges may take place. While explicitly a research vehicle, the

© Daimler

t CES 2019, Mercedes-Benz revealed the Urbanetic autonomous shuttle, a futuristic proof-of-concept to illustrate the kind of work that is being done behind closed doors, and the direction in which its Vans unit is headed. The vehicle also put a face to the various industry buzzwords being bandied around what has become the most important tech show on the automotive calendar.

Daimler plans to run a fully autonomous ride-hailing service in q2 2019 Urbanetic builds on Daimler’s earlier F 015 concept—a luxury vehicle as opposed to a shuttle bus—that posed around San Francisco back in 2015.

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Unlike consumer electronics, a glitch can cause real safety issues… A good Beta version will not be good enough for a release into the customer’s hands

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Alongside the development of people and product movers, the German automaker is also heavily invested in autonomous drive technology for privately owned passenger cars. The 2017 Mercedes-Benz E-Class launched with DRIVE PILOT, a suite of driver assistance systems that allow the car to control its steering and acceleration in specific highway conditions, and under the driver’s watchful eye. It is akin to that of other ‘highway pilots’ such as Cadillac Super Cruise, Volvo Pilot Assist and Tesla Autopilot, all of which require the driver’s hands—and brain—at the ready.

Under the vision of Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche, Daimler is pushing for fully autonomous systems that provide the option for human control, and driverless shuttles that do not. Tackling the former is Mercedes-Benz Cars, which is evaluating its autonomous systems on a global scale.

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© Daimler

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

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Chinese traffic is much denser, and we have seen many situations with partially obscured traffic signs

Around the world Michael Hafner is Head of Automated Driving and Active Safety at Mercedes-Benz Cars. Since October 2016, he has led the series development of semi-autonomous systems such as DRIVE PILOT. A doctor of automation technology, Hafner has been with Daimler for the last 17 years, and is deeply involved in the automaker’s push for a road-legal fully autonomous

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system. Testing across multiple markets is an undertaking of epic proportions, but also entirely necessary, he says. The ‘brain’ of the autonomous car must be able to cope with countless forms of road layouts, driving styles and climates.

But what are the most challenging markets in which an autonomous vehicle can be tested?

“We asked ourselves exactly that question a few years ago,” Hafner tells M:bility. At the 2017 IAA in

Frankfurt, Daimler’s autonomous driving team sent a standard SClass, albeit with slightly modified software and a trunk full of testing equipment, on a trip around the world. Over five months, the vehicle would investigate differences in road culture between the US, Europe and China, as well as in Australia and South Africa. This, says Hafner, was “to deliberately find situations in other countries we need to take into consideration.”

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So far, testing in China has proven particularly challenging.

“Chinese traffic is much denser, and we have seen many situations with partially obscured traffic signs,” explains Hafner. China has become a major test bed for autonomous vehicles, and Mercedes-Benz has been working with Internet giant Baidu to hone its system for local roads.

Demand for autonomous vehicles is generally expected to soar here, where consumers already favour alternatives to the private vehicle. “The mobility context in China is vastly different from mature markets,” says Bill Russo, an ex-Vice President at Chrysler and head of Shanghai-based advisory firm Automobility.

“Public transportation comes first, then on-demand mobility services—such as ride-hailing, taxis, micro transits, ride-pooling and car-sharing—and then private ownership.”

Elsewhere, it’s not just signage and traffic that can prove difficult. “In Australia, wildlife is a huge issue on rural roads, and in South Africa pedestrians and other vulnerable road users can be found on all types of roads,” says Hafner. “These are all rather challenging situations for which we are preparing.”

© Daimler

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

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Having to teach our cars to understand every new device on the road, in every colour or brand, would be a fight against windmills that we could not possibly win

Testing times Evaluating how an autonomous system reacts to plastic dummies on a test track is one thing. Testing on public roads can throw up entirely new situations, and ensuring the vehicle can handle the unexpected is vital. “Testing is crucial for practically any technical product before it enters the market, and when it comes to cars and other vehicles, testing is also elementary for the safety of the product,” says Hafner. “Unlike consumer electronics, a glitch can cause real safety issues, so a good Beta version will not be good

enough for a release into the customer’s hands.”

Before a test vehicle can hit public roads, it needs to be proven out through simulation. According to Elektrobit, an expert in hardware and software validation, as much as 95% of self-driving vehicle testing can be carried out in this way. Some programmes limit test vehicles to drive only on public

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routes that replicate successfully simulated conditions. Virtual testing allows millions of miles of driving to be completed in a short space of time. Real-world scenarios can be repeated over and over, allowing engineers to test and make tweaks in the safety of the lab. Unfortunately, the real world does not always play out as expected, and on-road tests cannot be avoided.

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 “We have seen many surprising situations during our multi-million kilometres of public testing which would never have been encountered in mere simulation,” explains Hafner. Situations seen on the road can be programmed into the simulation software, but “real world testing remains essential,” he affirms. “There are some situations you simply cannot predict beforehand, and we constantly need to ensure that the simulated situations are realistic.”

© Daimler

One challenge is learning the laws of the road; another is learning how to drive safely and efficiently amid other traffic. Late manoeuvres, aggressive acceleration and rapid braking could not only prove dangerous, it may also be offputting for the passenger. This raises the question of how an autonomous car should be taught to drive. “The definition of a ‘good’ driver depends very much on the perspective of the one assessing the

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Overreliance, or ‘blind trust’, in a system can be very dangerous

driving. It also depends on weather and traffic conditions and—not to forget—cultural aspects,” says Hafner. “Anyone who has driven in another country might sometimes perceive the driving there as ‘crazy’. However, a rather smooth and uneventful ride that does not put anyone in harm’s way is probably something that most people can agree on. In general, an autonomous car will be programmed to behave defensively, to obey traffic rules

and of course to drive comfortably— this is how we would like our selfdriving cars to behave.”

New challenges arise Autonomous vehicles are also learning how to adapt their driving in relation to other road users and pedestrians, just as a normal driver should. A dog on a leash is

Turquoise lights could indicate whether a vehicle is in autonomous mode

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 less likely to run out into the road, for example, than a stray dog without a human owner by its side. The vehicle, in this case, would slow down, take a slightly wider berth and err on the side of caution. Similar scenarios are being played out for the likes of toddlers, cyclists and a myriad of other entities that may be around the vehicle.

“Even though the mode of transportation might differ, the deep learning algorithms will still recognise a person on some form of transportation device and proceed with the necessary caution. Having to teach our cars to understand every new device on the road, in every colour or brand, would be a fight against windmills that we could not possibly win.”

© Daimler

In the test bed of San Francisco lies another rapidly growing trend: e-scooters and e-bikes. While rules are being established for how and where these scooters can ride, many riders can be seen whizzing in and out of traffic. For the autonomous car, predicting where these actors may turn next could prove tricky. “Thankfully, our machine learning methods can handle that task," says Hafner. “In general, we would classify riders of e-scooters and e-bikes as vulnerable road users—just like pedestrians, riders of regular bikes, riders of motorcycles, people in wheelchairs or even on hover-boards for that matter!

Daimler’s Cooperative Car features a 360-degree light signal

Trust me – I’m a robot

back to the driver with little warning. The driver should of course be alert and ready to take over, but the human-machine interface (HMI) is far from effective. Some systems simply remove a small green icon on the dashboard to indicate the system has switched off.

issue. In 2016, Swedish firm Semcon proposed the ‘smiling car’, which used LEDs on the front of the vehicle to indicate it was allowing a pedestrian to cross the road. Others suggest digital symbols could indicate whether the vehicle is coming to a stop, or just about to pull away.

Much interest has been placed on the so-called ‘handover’ situation, in which the vehicle transfers control back to the human driver.

This is already an issue on roads today, with semi-autonomous systems often thrusting control

There is also the interaction between car and pedestrian to consider; in the case of a driverless vehicle, it is crucial that other road users are not left guessing. There have been a number of attempts to crack the

“We believe that clearly communicating to the outside world as to whether the car is being operated in autonomous mode or not will help to increase acceptance of this technology as a mode of transportation in

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There is a need to distinguish between features that ‘support to a large degree’ and features that ‘perform the task completely’

© Daimler

everyday traffic,” says Hafner.

His team has conducted a significant amount of research into this issue, and concluded that turquoise could be a unique colour to indicate that autonomous mode is engaged. In addition, distinct patterns of light could “clearly signal” whether the car is stopping, accelerating

or notifying nearby pedestrians that the car is aware of their presence. “Imagine you are about to cross the street at a crosswalk and are unsure if the driver—or in this case the car—has recognised you. These lights will increase trust, safety and acceptance,” he explains. “We have introduced this concept

with our ‘Cooperative Car’ and are using it to conduct further research in this direction.”

In November 2018, Daimler hosted a debate in Berlin to discuss how trust can be established between human and vehicle. The Co-operative Car, a modified S-Class with 360-degree light signalling, was posed as a

A lightly modified S-Class tested autonomous driving functions across five continents

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 solution. "People need to be able to quickly and reliably gauge what an autonomous vehicle is going to do next,” said Alexander Mankowsky, a Futurist at Daimler’s Futures Studies & Ideation unit. “The vehicle must therefore provide information about its intentions in a way that people can grasp immediately and intuitively."

Speaking to Automotive World earlier in March 2017, Mankowsy noted that trust in automation “is a very serious issue,” and warned that “empathy with an automated car won’t come naturally.” So-called cognitive models, he said, would help consumers to understand the capabilities and limitations of an autonomous vehicle. “In doing so, we are about to replace blind trust— which can be dangerous—with ‘informed trust’ to make people comfortable with automated cars in [the] public space.”

Looking ahead, the marketing of autonomous drive technology will also prove an interesting watch.

While safety advocates widely present autonomous vehicles as a means to reducing traffic deaths, many automakers emphasise the technology as a comfort feature that relives the stress of driving.

Sitting in traffic can be boring, so say many brands today, and semiautonomous technology can help drivers to relax and leave the car to do most of the work—a potentially dangerous precedent to set. Many crashes have already been seen involving drivers that have become over reliant on semiautonomous systems.

“Overreliance, or ‘blind trust’, in a system can be very dangerous,” says Hafner. “Hence, our overall goal is to create what we call ‘informed trust’ with our customers, so that they always

© Daimler

Selling the idea

The Urbanetic shuttle concept was demoed at CES 2019

know what drive state they are in, what they are allowed to do and what they still need to do themselves.

“When it comes to handing over the driving task entirely to the vehicle—where the passenger can ‘only’ start and stop the process and determine the destination—it is mainly about comfort for the customer, but the obvious safety of the vehicle and the ride goes without saying,” continues Hafner. Systems that can be engaged on a freeway should make it crystal clear as to what the car can and cannot do in order for

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the driver to relax. Guessing as to whether the car will handle the next bend, for example, or whether it has recognised a sudden build up of traffic, is a stressful experience.

“Safety and comfort do not contradict each other. A comfortable driver is also a safe driver, and people who feel comfortable in a mode of transportation also feel safe,” he concludes. “But it is true that there is a need to distinguish between features that ‘support to a large degree’ and features that ‘perform the task completely’.”

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Š Adasky

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

Heat seeking cameras help autonomous cars to see in the dark While the future of mobility could hinge on technical intricacy, one aspect may be inspired by nature. With fears that LiDAR and radar sensors could be adversely affected by poor lighting and weather conditions, one company has been inspired by the viper’s ability to see in the dark. By Jack Hunsley

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s the automotive industry moves ever closer to an autonomous future, it is becoming ever more important to teach autonomous vehicles (AVs) not just to see, but also to perceive.

While granting AVs the gift of sight is an important step towards the future of mobility, the ability to distinguish humans from animals or vehicles from buildings, for example, is a hugely important milestone to overcome.

the transition to automotive far easier. Its wealth of expertise in the field has led to the production of the first high-resolution, thermal imaging camera for the AV. Known as ‘Viper’, this camera measures

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If you take sun glare as an example, our competitors have yet to build a robust solution that can operate in direct sunlight. Our FIR camera is also the only one that is able to see through thick fog, dense rain, haze or dust

© Adasky

Many systems have been developed in an attempt to achieve this goal, but, in the minds of some experts, significant doubts remain over the ability of technologies such as radar and LiDAR to operate flawlessly in all weather and lighting conditions.

One such plug here could be the use of far infrared (FIR) sensing equipment, which creates an image of a vehicle’s surroundings using infrared radiation. Of those experimenting in this space, Israelbased Adasky is perhaps one of the best-placed players.

As Adasky’s Director of Sales Engineering, Sharon Fiss, explained to M:bility, the company’s decades worth of experience in FIR solutions for civilian and military use has made

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© Adasky

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Our FIR solution is the only one currently capable of operating 24 hours a day, seven days a week in any weather condition

just 4.3cm by 2.6cm, and works by passively detecting and classifying living and inanimate objects through thermal signatures. The camera registers and combines emissivity—the rate at which an object emits heat—and thermal temperature in order to create an image, in a similar fashion as wild vipers do in order to identify and hunt their prey. This image can then be used by perception algorithms to detect and classify objects around the vehicle.

Today, the camera operates using the highest resolution available for automotive, VGA, and can run up to 60 frames a second while detecting a temperature variance of 0.05 degrees Celsius. All of these factors combined allow Viper to precisely identify obstacles, vehicles and pedestrians at a range of several hundred metres, allowing more time for autonomous and driver assistance solutions to react to any given scenario.

While vipers in the wild use infrared to seek and hunt, in the AV, Viper instead plays quite the opposite role—protecting, not endangering.

While this technology has its uses today, Adasky believes that it will support autonomous functions from Level 3 onwards. In particular, Fiss pointed towards

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how FIR’s increased perception ability will enhance the general public’s trust in an AV. “Adasky was founded on the understanding that there are huge gaps which remain in the automotive industry for understanding the vehicle's environment,” said Fiss. “We have seen several high-profile incidents in the last few years that have limited the development of AVs. However, we see great potential in FIR to improve the safety of these AVs. Eventually, we will be able to run logic and decision-making processes to aid an AV, as well as implement intention recognition of other road users.”

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 Role of deep learning Not unlike other similar technologies, Adasky’s solution leverages artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning techniques to make the most of the solution.

Specifically, deep machine learning plays a large role in the operation of Adasky’s technology.

Even though uses cases for AI have only recently emerged in automotive in a major way, Adasky has been making use of its resources, including that of its AI algorithm engineers, to develop its solution at a consistent rate since 2015. In that time, it has acquired and annotated over two million objects for its perception features, which run using complex machine learning techniques and end-to-end neural network algorithms. Such efforts will allow Viper to be scaled appropriately with demand. “As long as we continue to acquire data from locations all over the globe, as well as in various weather conditions, we will be able to continue improving our solution at a scalable rate,” Fiss added.

Other competitors Automakers have also experimented with other 24/7 capable sensors. In 2016, Ford demonstrated as part of ‘Project Nightonomy’ that its Ford Fusion self-driving vehicle was capable of driving in pitch black conditions without FIR assistance. On a closed road in Arizona, Ford’s test mule was able to navigate the course using only radar and LiDAR assistance. Prior to Arizona, Ford also carried out a similar test in snowy conditions at the University of Michigan’s Mcity facility.

In terms of direct competition, one of the most relevant players for Adasky is Oregon-based

perception specialist FLIR, which is also developing thermal infrared cameras for AVs alongside its work in the marine, industrial and security markets, to name but a few. However, Adasky remains confident that its solution is the current market leader. “Our FIR solution is the only one currently capable of operating 24 hours a day, seven days a week in any weather condition,” explained Fiss.

Fiss pointed towards localisation and mapping as key markets that could be bolstered with the use of FIR. “Alongside the AV evolution, there is now increasing understanding that there are specific needs in the automotive market that could be answered by combining complementary technologies,” said Fiss.

As Fiss highlighted, developing sectors such as last mile delivery

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While vipers in the wild use infrared to seek and hunt, in the AV, Viper instead plays quite the opposite role—protecting, not endangering

Applying Adasky’s FIR solution to the real world could bring significant positives. For example, Tesla’s fatal Autopilot crash in 2016—caused due to the Model S’ inability to distinguish between a white truck and bright skyline— could have theoretically been avoided using infrared rather than direct images to inform the vehicle of its surroundings. “If you take sun glare as an example, our competitors have yet to build a robust solution that can operate in direct sunlight,” added Fiss. “Our FIR camera is also the only one that is able to see through thick fog, dense rain, haze or dust.”

With these use cases already covered, attention at Adasky is beginning to turn towards applying its solutions in other areas of automotive. For example,

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and ride-sharing have been labelled as potential fields for the use of FIR technology. “The technologies and infrastructure that will be required for smart transportation solutions to work safely could benefit through the inclusion of FIR,” Fiss continued.

“At the moment, we are evaluating the potential value in these areas within the entire automotive ecosystem.”

Overall, the technology is still at an early stage of development, but Viper’s successful debut at CES 2019 could mark a turning point for the technology in automotive.

Perhaps the myriad of LiDAR and radar booths which littered the Las Vegas Convention Centre floor at this year’s event could in the coming years be replaced by those touting the value of FIR for the AV.

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Š BMW

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

How AR could offer a glimpse into the mind of a robot Bleeding edge augmented reality technology could bring human workers and industrial robotics closer together than ever before, learns Freddie Holmes

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he subject of machine automation naturally raises a number of questions for those that work side by side with mechanical leviathans: how can humans understand what a robot is about to do next, and be sure that it will not accidentally cause harm?

Augmented reality (AR) could prove pivotal in alleviating concerns, with real-time 3D

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graphics helping workers to better understand the intentions of their robot colleagues with little more than a glance.

Outside of the factory, AR is being considered for in-vehicle navigation. Rather than displaying directions in the driver’s peripheral vision on an infotainment screen, arrows and

instructions can be overlaid directly on the road via an AR windshield. At CES 2019, Hyundai revealed that it has been working with WayRay, a Swiss start-up that has developed just a system.

Also at the show, Nissan laid out plans to introduce digital passengers in the cockpit—computer generated avatars that can ride alongside the driver.

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AR has found numerous uses elsewhere, even directing retail shoppers to their preferred items and saving them the pain of hunting aisle to aisle. In 2014, a DARPA-funded prototype headset was tested to improve military situational awareness by tagging and tracking objects, and overlaying information into a soldier’s line of sight. AR is also rife in consumer electronics, with mobile apps such as Snapchat and Pokemon Go taking the spotlight.

In 2016, AR was included in Facebook’s ten-year roadmap as a key technology for growth up to 2026. However, AR offers far more than just entertainment value. Introduced in the right areas within the factory, efficiency and safety could hit new heights.

Say hello to your digital twin Simon Mayer is Professor for Interaction- and Communicationbased Systems at the University of St.Gallen in Switzerland. A computer scientist by training, he describes the profession as ‘putting magic into the real world.’

His team has been investigating how mixed reality can help workers to interact with an assembly line. Leveraging the Microsoft Hololens AR headset, the proposed solution—dubbed ‘HoloMiracle’—allows the user to make vocal queries and control a digital cursor to manipulate 3D graphics. This means that decisions can be made on the spot rather than from a computer lab.

In future, it could also provide an insight into a robot’s intentions, or more specifically, the tasks it has been programmed to perform.

“Augmented reality overlays 3D images over a particular space. A digital twin attached to a physical robot, which is only visible through an AR lens, could show

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

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Introduced in the right areas within the factory, efficiency and safety could hit new heights

what that machine will be up to in few seconds’ time,” explained Mayer. The problem, he says, is that this form of technology within the manufacturing sphere is not just cutting-edge; it is at such an early stage that he describes the solution as ‘bleeding-edge’.

Working with giants AR could also prove helpful in the realm of collaborative robots, or cobots, which are far smaller and easier to move than heavy-duty industrial robots. Today, co-bots already assist human workers with tasks that are particularly strenuous, such as fitting heavy components on a vehicle or other ‘dirty, dangerous and dull’ tasks. Workers at BMW’s plant in Dingolfing, Germany use

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Kuka co-bots to take the strain of mounting heavy gearboxes, for example, while Skoda’s Vrchlabí plant in the Czech Republic uses cobots to insert gear actuator pistons into transmissions.

In order for robots and humans to work together in more complex situations, improved communication between man and machine will be key. Safety and efficiency must continue to rise as machines become more capable and modular. If current projections hold true, the so-called smart factory of the future will leverage highly flexible robots in order to facilitate quick changeover times and the production of a greater range of products.

According to Rolf Najork, President of the Executive Board at Bosch

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M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019 Rexroth, there will only be six fixed parts to the smart factory: four walls, the ceiling and the floor.

Large robots are typically housed in the safety of a manufacturing cell—a confined area in which a towering machine operates out of harm’s way. Such robots can be tasked with handling materials well over 1,000kg (2,200lbs), and are capable of moving objects in wide sweeping motions at speed. It is a dangerous place for any human, particularly where movements may be sudden and unpredictable. While this is likely to remain standard procedure for the majority of tasks, Mayer believes that AR could help to bring the human into the loop in a safer and more efficient way.

Follow the bubbles AR could not only show the actions a robot may be about to perform, but also a real-time view of the devices and networks with which it is wirelessly connected. Devices in smart environments, explains Mayer, form complex networked systems. However, communication between each system essentially occurs invisibly, or ‘behind the back’ of human workers. “The more autonomous behaviour instilled to any given system that interacts with humans, the more we need to keep the human in the loop and informed,” he said.

Prior to his current role, Mayer served as a Research Scientist with

computer designed to control manufacturing processes) and a Microsoft Kinect motion-sensing device. When viewed through an AR headset, streams of blue bubbles show the various wireless interactions that take place as the robot is instructed to pick up a box.

Making AR a reality It is worth highlighting the difference between virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality. AR overlays the real world with 3D images—computer generated graphics that are not really there—whilst VR uses a purely digital landscape, like a videogame.

The benefit of AR is that it allows

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If humans are working among heavy, dangerous and autonomous machines that interact with each other, they need to be informed about the intentions of all these robots

“Today, even partially autonomous robots are fenced in a box and no one is allowed to enter. As soon as it detects a human entering the cell, the entire system switches off.

This is the kind of setup we are trying to get away from,” he explained. “If humans are working among heavy, dangerous and autonomous machines that interact with each other, they need to be informed about the intentions of all these robots.” The issue has not been ignored by the industry; in the summer of 2019, industrial robotics giant, Kuka, will launch a programme to investigate, implement and test use cases for AR and VR glasses in robotics.

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Siemens Corporate Technology in Berkley, California between 2014 and 2017. During this time he coauthored a report into how the interactions of ‘autonomous cognitive machines’ could be visualised through a technology called HoloInteractions. The idea is for workers to “directly observe which devices interact with each other, and what data is transmitted between them at any given moment.”

This AR system was tested in a manufacturing cell outfitted with a Universal Robots UR5 collaborative robot, a programmable logic controller (a

work to be carried out in situ, rather than from in front of a computer screen elsewhere.

“The use of augmented reality can enable remote asset inspection and reduce the costs of downtime,” notes Arthur D. Little’s Future of Mobility 3.0 study. Indeed, workers at a number of ZF plants have investigated how AR headsets can be used to troubleshoot issues on the production line in real-time.

Specialists are often in remote locations away from the plant, but an AR headset allows both parties to demonstrate changes that may need to be made using overlaid 3D images and instructions. Metal

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© Microsoft

M:bility | Magazine - Q2 2019

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The use of augmented reality can enable remote asset inspection and reduce the costs of downtime

components supplier Gestamp has been trialling AR that allows workers at its Abrera plant in Barcelona to step inside a digital 3D model of a vehicle—useful for analysing the result of a crash test.

Toyota has used Microsoft Hololens headsets to aid inspection processes—such as checking the thickness of exterior coatings—and to optimise the layout of the factory

floor. PSA is considering how AR could assist the way in which robots used in welding lines and paint shops are programmed.

“Augmented reality could prove a way for workers to gain knowledge of how and where they will work in the future, and exactly how the environment around them will change,” noted Yann Vincent, Groupe PSA Executive Vice President, Supply Chain &

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Manufacturing in Automotive World’s 2018 special report ‘Vehicle manufacturing & Industry 4.0’.

As machines become increasingly autonomous and almost self aware—able to adapt their actions on the fly and not simply perform repeated set tasks—the ability to visualise their interactions and intentions could prove invaluable.

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