METANOIA September 2015
METANOIA EXECUTIVE AND STAFF
A NEW WAY OF THINKING
PUBLISHERS
SALME JOHANNES LEIS & ALLISON PATTON
COPY CHIEF
CALEB NG
EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS
JR LEIS AND HEINO LEIS
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF MARKETING
DAL FLEISCHER
PHOTO ARCHIVIST
GALINA BOGATCH
INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTOR
SUZETTE LAQUA
CONTRIBUTORS Maureen Bader Hank Leis Alex Barberis Salme Leis Andy Belanger Chris MacClure Donald J. Boudreaux Dunstan Massey Dr Tim Brown Seth Meltzer Brian Croft Dr Caleb Ng Miki Dawson Janice Oleandros Cheryl Gauld Dr Allison Patton Kulraj Gurm Luis Reyes Marilyn Hurst Cara Roth Richard King IV Pepe Serna Peter and Maria Kingsley Dan Walker Nina Khrushcheva Harvey White Suzette Laqua Dr Bernard Schissel Marilyn Lawrie Dr Jack Wadsworth Cover photo: actor Gerald Auger
METANOIA MAGAZINE is a publication of METANOIA CONCEPTS INC. For questions, comments, or advertising contact by Phone: 604 538 8837, Email: metanoiamagazine@gmail.com, Mail: 3566 King George Blvd, Surrey, BC, Canada, V4P 1B5
METANOIA CONTENTS
A NEW WAY OF THINKING
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A NEW WAY OF THINKING RANT CANADIAN EDUCATION VENTER ARTICLE DONALD TRUMP INTERVIEW: GERALD AUGER VIDCON THE STOCK MARKET IN MEMORIAM THE INTERNATIONAL SHENYANG & NORTH KOREA KIDNAPPING, EXTORTION AND BLACKMAIL MISSIVES
BY HANK LEIS BY DR. JACK WADSWORTH BY HANK LEIS BY HANK LEIS BY HANK LEIS BY SUZETTE LAQUA BY DR. JACK WADSWORTH BY HANK LEIS
BY DAN WALKER
BY DONALD BOUDREAUX
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This month we have a story about the very educated and ambitious Huma Mir. She has pursued a career path that encompassed Medicine, Showbiz, and Business. She is an extraordinary person with an unusual story. Seeking Perfection seems hardly to be a rant, but when that perfect person being discussed is Putin, then of course anything is possible. Suzette Laqua, star interviewer, visits Vidcom in L.A. and reveals her experiences at the show. Donald Trump – the perfect choice for President? Come On! Only Hank Leis would think so. Dr. Jack Wadsworth’s article on making money in the Stock Market continues. Sadly, Jack passed away from cancer on August 8, 2015. He was a kind man, a great friend and a brilliant researcher. He will be sorely missed. Hank Leis and Allison Patton write about J. Craig Venter, probably one of the most important scientists living today. His work and discoveries will inevitably lead to the most signifi cant changes in the future of humankind since Einstein’s equation E= mc2. Gerald Auger is an actor, but his life story is anything but an act. It is the story of a survivor and an achiever.
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Next month we will feature a true story that is still ongoing. We are immersed in an unlikely venture, that includes kidnapping, extortion, letter bombs, death threats and corruption and this is only the beginning. We hope that our readers can assist in finding the culprits who instigated these dastardly deeds - an award is being considered. Read page 33 and the next issue.
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METANOIA
A NEW WAY OF THINKING
T
he Greek origins of the word Metanoia [met-uh-noi-uh] convey the notion of an experience or a moment that is transformative. In fact the change itself would be so remarkable as to shift paradigms and these shifts actually would cause a change in behavior and ultimately the consequences of those behaviors. The articles in this magazine are intended to introduce a different way of thinking so that ideas and notions we take for granted can be reframed in such a way as to renew our life by making it more interesting, challenging and rewarding. Many of us have abandoned our intelligence, our ability to think, our various gifts for being able to create and instead joined the masses whose only goal is to perpetuate the species and dwell in a complacent and apathetic state amounting to nothing more than mere existence. We at Metanoia believe we are all capable of more than that and more importantly are able to generate epiphanous moments for you. We hope that our plethora of deep-thinking writers will be able to transform your life into something meaningful and wondrous. Every one of us, to a varying degree, has experienced these moments and most of us who have been so transformed are driven to rediscovering the process that first allowed us our enlightened clarity of mind. In the last decade, scientific advancements have given insights into human phenomena that were previously thought science fiction, such as the viral theory as a contributing factor in the feeling of “love”. Anthropologists may have noticed nuances in human behavior early in our development, but these scientific discoveries now actually explain the physiology of “metanoic thinking”. Our own behaviors are being re-examined in light of these discoveries about brain function, and in particular that our usual way of thinking leads us to our usual results. Moreover mostly we do not think- but react- not unlike reptiles- and this process does not always serve us well. Humankind is evolving, and more and more the primitive fears that govern our behaviors are being discovered to be limiting rather than opportunistic. What we are discovering about ourselves is what our evolution is all about; the beast within will soon be quelled and what will emerge is anybody’s guess. Individually, the context of one individual within a population of seven billion suggests his/her insignificance – let alone a lifetime in the span of eternity. And yet we still have this narcissistic sense that our existence is of tremendous relevance. And while there may be something to this belief, how do these enormous discrepancies in size and time fit together to explain the relevance of this epic story? Simplified, what is the relevance of a person making a living to pay for food and shelter to the formula E=mc2. Our mission, certainly for Metanoia is to explore all those ideas, and to change ourselves and you in pursuit of this intelligence. To put it another way, we want your brain to be engaged in way it never has been before. Are you ready for the challenge?
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Leading Actors Alina Kabaeva
Patriarch of Moscow and all Russia Kirill
Vladislav Surkov, Agitprop
The Casualties
Putin’s Alter Ego, Krudo El Rabidor
The Negotiators
Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia
John Kerry, Secretary of State, United States
Rant Rant
Seeking Perfection By Hank Leis
I have spent my life seeking perfection; not for myself, but in finding those who are perfect. Perfection is such an elusive concept and in trying to define it, one can only get it wrong. Perfection is easy to find in nature, because by definition, everything about nature is the standard. Nature therefore can do no wrong. With humans, it is different. They are manipulative, deceitful, lack integrity and are rarely true to form. They indulge in hypocrisy – especially those whose vanity espouses the virtues of being politically correct. I love politicians who don’t have that three second pause, to formulate a reply to a question to get the response politically correct. I love it in general when people don’t spend that three seconds in creating that false image that is designed to make themselves look better than who they are.
Putin’s eyes and witnessed the inner workings of a man he could deal with. The chemistry between Secretary of State Kerry and Putin was somewhat different – he saw the empty eyes of a cold blooded killer that said to him “I am death.” Both were right. Putin is the embodiment of soul and soullessness. His honesty is beyond reproach. What other politician would openly admit to having been a thug? Putin is a lover. He has a mistress, some forty years younger than him. She is a gymnast and apparently has borne him two children. A gymnast! My God! Every young man’s hero! Every old man’s hero too for that matter as well – and of course mine because I am old. In the U.S. he would be described as “da maaaaan!” as in “You da Maaan!”
It has taken some considerable courage for me to “come out” and reveal how much I love Vladimir Putin. Yes His homo erotic photographs riding shirtless on it is that kind of erotic love that one man can have for horseback, doing judo with young men half his age and another, and do it openly by coming out of the closet. enjoying sports are legendary. His attendance at the And somehow I knew that Putin in his heart of hearts would reciprocate this love, if only he knew of my admiration for him. We all know of his perfection. Even George W. Bush, former President of the United States saw the glint in
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Australian Summit of world leaders reminds one of the Captain of The Good Ship Lollipop as he stands legs apart on his military Russian Warship Marshal Shaposhniker accompanied by two or three other warships as he shows his aura of power. His rejuvenation of Russia has instantly created more billionaires in Russia than it took decades to create in the U.S. and the rest of the world. Putin himself is a Ph.D. having received his diploma from the St. Petersburg Mining Institute in 1996. His integrity is such that he has ordered a ferreting out of Ph.D. plagiarisms in all of Russia. According to Fedyukin, the ferret, there were no grounds to review Putin’s thesis, of which 16 pages with minor changes were copied from an American textbook. Mr. Putin speaks German and some English. He is truly a Renaissance man and a man for all seasons and reasons.
Perfection is really the art of being true to oneself. Perfection is unapologetic, and without regret. And it goes on until it does not. I love perfection, so by implication I love Putin (who wouldn’t, you might say). I have tied my wagon to his. I suspect we both have an interesting future – what there is left of it. Putin is the most powerful man on the planet because he operates with impunity – and his followers love him for it – because he gets who they are – unlike the leaders of China who constrain each other and in the U.S. with an opposition party voicing “their opinions”. He is a man who has no constraints, neither for himself nor what he will do to others. He is exactly who he is – and without the need to explain his motives, desires, or ambitions to anyone. He is perfect. He answers the question “Why?” with “Why not?”
More recently on July 31st, 2015 “Vladimir Putin” ordered killing - according to the Litvinenko Inquiry Hearings. Alexander Litvinenko was a Russian spy – who broke with Putin. Not a wise move. Litvinenko was murdered with Polonium and traces of the radioactivity trail virtually led to Putin’s front door. In February 2015, Borris Netsov, a sharp critic of Putin, was shot dead. Putin like OJ is looking for the killer. Putin is the nemesis of those who are “bad” not only in Russia, but internationally. For him, there are no boundaries. Vladimir Putin is the pride of Russia (80% support) and intends to leave a legacy of toughness, shrewdness and impeccability. Russian women love Putin. He is their Koodo’s El Tabador - cute, cuddly, and harmless. He is a kind of mini-man, a narcissistic rascal with the mind of a teenager, who flexes his muscles to gain attention – but dangerous to others who might try to mock their narcissistic adolescent leader. His effect on the world will be impossible to erase. And his proactivism in world affairs has yet to end. Crimea and Ukraine, are works in progress as is the challenging the legitimacy of the existence of the Baltic countries, and as is sustaining the masterminds of Syria in their rightful place. Which world leader dares say with alacrity, that his messenger is connected to God? But, Kirill (Archbishop of Moscow and all of Russia) is God’s connection to Putin – and God believes in Putin and so all He does is blessed.
Putin looks out of a nuclear submarine Karelia, in the Barents Sea, in Severomorsk, in 2000.
The Institute is pleased to publish this exploratory approach to the analysis of Canadian educational policy. Mr. Wadsworth brings to his subject the point of view of an observer outside the organized structure of education. From this vantage point he examines policy in education from three distinct but overlapping viewpoints, which he describes as the rational, the pragmatic, and the research approaches. Such an analysis is of particular consequence today. Education costs have reached the point where the taxpaying public is questioning the entire educational structure, and at the same time, many within the structure have expressed profound discontent. The need for fresh analyses of our schools and school systems is paramount. Mr. Wadsworth’s study is being published in order that his ideas and recommendations may receive attention. R. W. B. Jackson, Director. The Ontario Institute for Studies in Education Toronto, June 1971
Description of Policy Analysis The objectives of policy analysis may be listed simply: • To provide the policy maker with a knowledge of the substantive issues in the particular area of interest; • To provide the policymaker with an exhaustive list of alternative policies, with a description of their total implications if implemented; • To provide the policy maker with a description of the total implication of an existing policy.
In attempting to achieve these objectives, the policy analyst is aware that he is trying to close the gap between political
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power and the knowledge of substantive issues, and the further gap between the knowledge of substantive issues and the knowledge of policymaking. Naturally, the knowledge of substantive issues in the particular area of interest can only result from analytical research performed by creative analysts immersed in the various disciplines associated with the area of interest. The knowledge of policy making results from a synthesis of the following: available knowledge of how organizational structures operate (organization theory); available knowledge of ways to improve the quality of the people engaged in policymaking (personnel development); knowledge of collecting and using information (intelligence studies and information theory); knowledge of coordinating and integrating different policymaking units (political science); knowledge of designing better decisions (operations research and decision sciences); knowledge of analyzing, improving, and managing complex systems (systems theory); and so on.
The Rational Approach The rational approach to policy analysis has been stated thus: • Establish a complete set of operational goals, with relative weights allocated to the different degrees to which each may be achieved. • Establish a complete inventory of other values and of resources, with relative weights. • Prepare a complete set of the alternative policies open to the policy maker. • Prepare a complete set of valid predictions of the costs and benefits of each alternative, including the extent to which each will achieve the various operational goals, consume resources, and realize or impair other values. • Calculate the net expectation for each alternative by multiplying the probability of each benefit and cost for each alternative by the utility of each, and calculating the net benefit in utility units. • Compare the net expectations and identify the alternative (or alternatives, if two or more are equally good) with the highest net expectation.
There are inherent intractabilities in the rational approach. Unfortunately, the rational approach immediately emphasizes man’s analytical incapacity, to deal with both the range of information required and the uncertainties that are raised about the future course of events resulting from the implementation of a particular policy. These intractabilities have been delineated classically by Lindblom. The above intractabilities question in the extreme the ability of policymaking to influence significantly human destiny, which is highly determined by environmental factors; these may be expressed as a social concept of entropy, which is a tendency for society to run down to a state of undifferentiated chaos. Dror has coined the MalthusDror law, which states that problems requiring analysis tend to increase geometrically, while analysts only increase arithmetically.
The Pragmatic Approach The pragmatic approach to policy analysis attempts to deal with the two areas of intractability (the inability to handle all the analytical information required and the inability to resolve the uncertainties of the future), essentially by comprising the scope of the analysis and by limiting the policy analysis to a short time-horizon. This limiting of analytical scope results in the concept of “satisficing” whereby some acceptable level of goal accomplishment short of maximization is accepted. Thus the search for a policy to attain this level is much more tractable than an exhaustive search for the policy that would achieve the maximum level of goal accomplishment. In fact, one satisfices, rather than maximizes. The classical treatment of uncertainty by the reduction of the time-horizon uses the concept of incremental change, whereby a policy is chosen that is only incrementally or marginally different from existing policies.
Another pragmatic approach is the “sequential decision” approach, whereby feedback is generated by actual experimental implementation of different policies.
The Extrarational Approach The extrarational approach to policy analysis is characterized by the disregard of all analytical rational processes and a reliance upon intuition, judgment, etc. Although extrarational processes are unconvincingly documented, the usefulness of creative processes that would seem to depend upon serendipity or accident cannot he ignored in the process of policy analysis. Although the objectives of policy analysis can be appreciated easily, the processes by which these objectives may be achieved generate many widely different approaches and much conflict. Both extremes of policy analysis (a completely rational approach and a completely extrarational approach) may be only of academic interest to the policymaker, but it is felt that certain segments of the continuous spectrum between the two extremes may be of very definite benefit.
Motivations for Policy Analysis in Canadian Education The Crisis in Education The most important motivation for attempting to perform a policy analysis on Canadian education is the crisis it is now experiencing. It is significant that this crisis is not characteristic of Canada but of the whole of the Western world. Coombes has succinctly captured the crisis under the following headings: The Student Flood. There has been an inexorable and almost overpowering rise in demand for more education of every sort and at every level. The flood of aspiring students, released in the first place by an expansion of human expectations, then enlarged by a population expansion has inundated every educational system. The managers of the system have been so thoroughly occupied merely with the staggering problems of rescue and logistics that they have had little time to think of other things, such as the effectiveness and the efficiency of the whole operation. It appears that the flood of numbers is not going to subside but promises to keep on rising for some time to come. Acute Resource Scarcities. To cope with the flood of students, and paradoxically to swell it, the resources devoted to education have multiplied in an unprecedented manner since the early 1950s. Unfortunately, the supply of teachers and buildings, equipment and textbooks, scholarships and fellowships, and the money required for each of these, has lagged well behind the rising educational demand, thereby imposing severe restrains upon the ability of educational systems to respond satisfactorily to the demand. It would appear that resource scarcities relative to need will persist. Rising Costs. Increasingly stringent resource limitations add to the afflictions of educational systems because of the
upward trend of their real cost per student. Apart from the familiar havoc that inflation plays with educational budgets and teacher incomes, this upward trend of unit costs centres mainly in the fact that education remains a labor-intensive industry, still close to the handicraft stage. Apparently it becomes more labor-intensive with each effort to raise its so-called quality through its conventional means. Unsuitability of Output. In these already harrowing circumstances, educational systems are further beset by evidence that what they are teaching and what they are turn in and out seems in important respects not to be right for the times and the occasion. The outputs of educational systems are evidently ill-fitted to the rapidly altering needs of national development, and to the similarly changing needs of individuals in changing societies. Furthermore, the attitudes, job preferences, and status patterns given to the students by their environment work against the proper use of the outputs of a modern educational system and against the promotion of an authentic development process bent towards social change and economic modernization. Inertia and Inefficiency. The response of Canadian educational systems in the above circumstances has been essentially to carry on with the same methods of education. Apparently this has not worked. The old arrangements that served well in the past (the system of administration, the syllabus, curriculum and teaching methods, the means of teacher training and recruitment, etc.) are proving no match for the new situation. In fact, the education system has displayed an inherent inertia that has perhaps deterred it in the work of adapting its internal affairs with sufficient speed to meet a fast-changing set of circumstances.
The Significance of Education It is almost clichÊ to point out that education in Canada represents something like 10% of the country’s GNP; it employs about 5% of the labor force; education capital expenditures represent nearly 10% of business capital investment; education accounts for 50% of all local government spending, 30% of provincial government spending, and 5% of federal government outlays. Such an enormous national involvement, although constitutionally a direct involvement of only provincial governments, cannot fail to be of some concern to the federal government indirectly insofar as elementary and secondary schooling is involved, but directly for postsecondary activities where the federal government is directly committed. Canadian education has significance on a national level, moreover, because of the interdependence within the modern state. The modern industrial state is so interdependent, particularly in technical and economic terms, and its population is so mobile, that it has become quite impossible to think of government policies and programs as affecting only the people within the jurisdiction of the particular government responsible for these policies. Thus the central government cannot avoid a concern with Canadian education generally.
The Visibility of Apparent Social Pathology Since the mass media, with their preoccupation with socalled student unrest and student activism, have heralded the present allegedly low level of implied social pathology as only a precursor for more widespread and deeper campus unrest, it is challenging to attempt to examine what the nature of this very visible social activity is. One extreme view of campus unrest will call it nothing more than what is highly familiar to anyone with any experience as a family counselor. Students do sound very frequently like petulant, emancipated adolescents demanding simultaneously, as a matter of right, unlimited access to the family car and more attention and affection. Faculty and administrators do sound very frequently like aggrieved parents outraged that so little recognition is given to their unstinting self-sacrifice and labor, lovingly served up to their ungrateful offspring. An observer of university communities interested in finding support for the thesis that the family conflict model offers the best means of explaining most of the phenomena need not travel far nor listen long before coming across much evidence. The above is dismissed by Astin, who points out that, although the issue of student activism is potentially one of the most compelling research topics for the behavioral scientists, very little systematic empirical research has been reported in the literature. This is to say not that both the popular and the scholarly journals are not already inundated with articles concerning student protests, but simply that most of the published material has been of a journalistic and speculative nature representing for the most part anecdotal accounts of confrontations on specific campuses or speculative analyses of the protest movement. While such writings have provided a wealth of provocative hypotheses concerning student activism, they offer little empirical information concerning the personal and social determinants of student activism. Astin’s examination of some 246 institutions confirms the findings of most previous empirical studies of student protest behavior conducted at single institutions. Typically, activists and non-activists are compared in terms of various biographical characteristics and psychological test scores. Although these earlier studies vary widely in terms of methodology, type of student body, type of institution, and other factors, certain highly consistent findings have emerged. For example, compared to the non-activist, the activist student tends to be more intelligent, politically liberal, individualistic, and independent. Activists are more likely than other students to major in social sciences and humanities and less likely to be taking preprofessional programs. They also show more in tersest in artistic and aesthetic pursuits. Compared to the parents of typical college students, the parents of activists tend to be more highly educated, wealthier, more politically liberal, less religious (in the sense of formal church attendance), and more inclined to be permissive in rearing their children. To be continued in the next issue of Metanoia
Let us do the cooking At Choices Markets, Saturday, September 12, 2015 8am - Noon
Prostate Cancer Awareness Pancake Breakfast
Prostate cancer is the most common cancer to affect Canadian men. One in seven men will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime.
All proceeds go to Prostate Cancer Canada Network-Surrey and White Rock.
At Choices Markets Alder Crossing in South Surrey Sponsored By Prostate Cancer Canada Network Surrey
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Venter Article By: Hank Leis and Dr. Allison Patton
The mystery of life is so perplexing that we as humans don’t have the words to ask the questions we want answered. “What is our purpose here on Earth?” is the most commonly asked question. But somehow it is inadequate. Religions have long sought the answer- and in many cases have provided answers that defy belief because the answers are about believing. Yet there is this innate need or urge we all have, that there is more to know. In the midst of our doing, our business- our minds wander- if for but a moment- to ask the question, “What’s it all about?” Somehow our presence and our activity needs a better reason
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than the one we have been given or have assumed. And our concentration on the task before us, interferes with finding the answer. So quickly we go back to what we are doing, and the thought is lost or obscured by focusing on doing what we need to do to survive, neglecting the fundamental question, “Why?” Scientists, to some extent have turned the question upside down. Physicists and astronomers regard the question of existence about the creation of energy and matter. But they too enter the ethereal world of defining existence, when they discover through their research that space between things that exist is greater than the thing Higgs called that tiny thing a boson. In other words, the mass of the Universe of what is, can be compressed into a volume smaller than a marble (Higgs boson- the God Particle). And the phenomenon that created the
Universe was the Big Bang, a kind of explosion that separated the actual dense thing that existed, and dispersed it into space- but by this separation it created space to expand into. And more confusingly existence is time- but man created this imaginary concept of telling time- by an illusionary measurement based on Earth’s travel around the Sun. So telling time that we take for granted is a measurement of movement relative to some designated reference point. So time is a tool we have created- not discovered- because it does not exist. Einstein did much of his theorizing, not by physical experiments, but by thought experiments. Mind experiments are done- by thinkingand each thought leads to anotherand ultimately the natural logic or sequence of thoughts is translated into mathematical formulas based on standards created by man. In measuring the speed of light, conjectures had to be made that light travelled, not just was.
The speed of light is probably one of the easiest measurements to make, yet so few have any idea of how to do it.
genius contributed to the completion of the genome’s interpretation much earlier than anticipated.
Evolutionists have come to regard the process of reproduction as distinguishing living from matter. But crystals reproduce themselves. The distinction of living organisms from other matter is not altogether clear. The path from the big bang to life, though complex, is rational, but selfawareness is not as “easily” explained, although many have tried. That we are witness to what is, and without us and our explanations nothing would be. Our existence, and our meaningfulness is defined by our biological feedback loop. Our meaninglessness is defined by logic. We are interpreters of what it means to exist by existing. So the big bang- inherently had us “in mind” and as the Universe expanded, it produced stars and planets where on at least one, humans now reside, studying all that has been and all that ever will be. We are currently the beginning and end of the feedback loop- that begins with the phenomenon of existence and ultimately circles back to nonexistence.
Venter was a premedical student at the University of California, San Diego. He has a Bachelor of Science degree in biochemistry and a PhD degree in physiology and pharmacology. He founded The Institute for Genome Research, a non-profit genomic research institution in Rockville, MD. He is now president of the J. Craig Venter Institute and has published over 160 research articles.
On April 25, 1953 James D. Watson and Francis Crick published an article entitled, “Molecular Structure of Nucleic Acids; A Structure for Deoxyribose Nucleic Acid”. The mystery of who we are had been solved- and what was left was the detail work. The surprise was its simplicity. We are, in essence, the result of a sequence of a four letter alphabet; G A T C (Guanine, Adenine, Thiamine, Cytosine) forming a double helix known as the DNA (Deoxyribonucleic Acid) structure. Its unique ability is to make copies of itself, and to instruct the organism it creates to sustain itself by creating environments that support its maintenance. The discreet parts on the double helix that create meaningful traits are called genes and the total package the genome. The mapping out of the genome became one of the most significant undertakings since the development of the atomic bomb (The Manhattan Project) in Los Alamos, New Mexico. The U.S. government and J. Craig Venter (privately funded) began a race to discover the secret. The extent to which they co-operated or who really won- is still being argued- but generally it is agreed that Craig Venter’s passion and
On June 16, 2015, Dr. Venter spoke in Vancouver updating a room full of scientists, business people, insurance companies and dignitaries about the current status of the Genome project. My colleague and I from the magazine attended the event. For me, as soon as Dr. Venter started speaking, it was like I had just found my favourite old sweater. I was suddenly brought back to my days in University; biochemistry, science, chemistry, biology and psychology. The framework in my brain that housed all of this history felt exhilaration, joy, comfort and satisfaction. I looked around, did anyone else feel the same way? The man next to me, a financial planner, did not seem to get it. The man two seats away from me a Geneticist, surely did. I was in my element; something that didn’t happen very often lately, outside of my work as a physician. We are always pushing our brains into new areas of discovery and learning, as we too search for answers. Dr. Venter described a future that included working on completing the digitization of the Genome’s of every person on the planet, downloading vaccines from the internet for use by humans, mapping the genes of cancer cells in the body to create personalized vaccines and medicines to treat these conditions, and even sending a virus implanted with synthetic DNA into a living creature that would destroy the genes of that organism and cause the synthetic DNA to start replicating. It was mind blowing for me to see how quickly this science is advancing. Dr. Venter is extremely intelligent and has good intentions. He works tirelessly on projects for the advancement of health care and science. From a professional point of view, I think this
is to be commended. I must admit though, as I listened to him speak, there was a tiny kernel of doubt and fear that I could feel deep within the pit of my stomach. Each new discovery that is meant for good, has unintended consequences. I also realized that there is no way to stop this from moving forward; it is happening and happening quickly. As I often do, I pushed this thought out of my head and shook off the sensation in the pit of my stomach. It did not seem that I was meant to spend my time worrying about this indefinitely. For now, I will continue to watch the progress of this project with interest and some trepidation. The unintended consequences will likely become relevant in a generation, if that, and I might be lucky enough to see where our genes will take us or where we will try to take our genes.
Dr. Allison Patton with Dr. Craig Venter
Hank Leis, author of, The Leadership Phenomenon: A Multidimensional Model
Why in the U.S. Donald Trump is the Perfect Choice, for President for the Thinking Man By Hank Leis
Donald
exercised his fi rst amendment rights to freedom of speech and in a way that no other politician would dare. His views are not always well articulated nor have a presentation that is smooth and oily of a politician. But that is exactly why he is gaining support- even though it might not be by “thinking men”. For one thing- there are so few of them. The many who claim virtue and entitlement to the Presidency because of their political correctness- have Democracy is not thought about an odd concept. what they say at It is the next all. They have best thing to memorized by anarchy. It is rote, the “right” about rationality things to say. and order that fl ows out of irrationality- and in current circumstances it would be about Trump’s law and Trump’s Hillary Clinton is old. We probably know more about her order created by the past order which has resulted in grid than any other candidate who has aspired to that offi ce. Once lock and impotence. Not really all that much different from we hated her, then we loved her and now we are just tired Putin’s law and order. of her. Eighteen years of having known Hillary is too long. Trump is a thinker. His diatribe in his announcement to seek the U.S. Presidency, could not have occurred without considerable thought. Moreover he is the perfect foil for Putin- another thinking man. Both are men of action- not pussyfooters like the rest of the herd of Republicans or Hillary Clinton, the tired old lady, the only viable leader of the Democratic persuasion.
“I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created.”
These are the ravings of an already famous man who has tapped into the minds of the public who has no voice. He has
Marriages don’t last that long. As for the Republicans, they are all clones of each other. We have heard it all before from
old white men- only now to be repeated by slightly younger men, saying the same maddening things. The Republicans are afraid of Trump, because in one way or another, this blabber mouth will create in the minds of the electorate, a permanent toxic brand, from which they will never recover. It is too late for that- the avoidance of using common language, instead modified statements with innuendo, but politically correct- has made the U.S. elections a one party system and all of it is toxic. CNN fact checks Trump’s pronouncements. This outrages the thinking voters even more- because facts as presented by the media tend to distort how they feel. They are angry, they are not going to take it anymore and the facts are not the problem- it is the interpretation of the facts that is the lie. And finally here is a man who cares as little about the facts as they do- and isn’t in politics for the money. He already has money, and as he proclaims, lots and lots of it. But most important, he shows contempt for the establishment, politicians and business- as they do- but he has the ability to make it stick. Trump is a thinking man. Most others who criticize him are not. They have bought the Kool-Aid of misstatements, purity of thought, which result in inaction. They mouth the party line- which is why, in a sense, America is weak. America is showing weakness because it can. It spends its treasure on narcissistic pursuits. And that terrifies Americans who actually think, even more than its stability based on the status quo that is achieved through being satisfied constantly. Stability is the enemy of proactivity and America needs a shake up and Trump is doing that. It is becoming like China has always been- corrupt, slow to change- regressive and mundane. It is too big to fail- but it is failing- making its enemies more confident and willing to encroach on what was once American territory and their perceived right to enjoy without interference. For those who dwell in the land of defining people as racists or non-racists, they demonize with alacrity those they deem unworthy by accusations of racial bias. The accusation of racism in an easy out for the press (right or left wing) so that discussion is minimized and uncomfortable. But racism as defined has no innocents. But voters are not comfortable with this harsh one-sided criticism. They do not feel secure. They don’t know quite how to express what it is they feel. While Donald Trump does not exactly reflect what they feel and see- he comes close. And as they reflect on these matters, the language barrier to articulating what they want to express hopefully will improve. Donald Trump in many respects is a hateful man. He is not easy to like- and many of those who support him may not even like him. But the truth is not always easy to hear- and more so when spoken through angry words and a callous indifference to anyone who might be injured by them. Politicians cater. Trump does not. He insults with impunity and there is something positive to be said about that even if
you are the injured party- and if you are perhaps, it is a time to reflect not necessarily that he is right and you are wrongbut that the time has come to detach from that particular paradigm. When racism, or suspicion of it, is a non-issue, then dialogue becomes more open. Academics are stuck in a paradigm where process is perceived as more significant than performance. A doctorate requires meticulous adherence to a very special code that is intended to substantiate every declaration made by the author. Peer review is a substantial part of obtaining recognition and gaining legitimacy. The application process to determine who gets admitted to university and who does not- can be restrictive and is often administered by groups of incestuous like-minded judges. Omit the word “sustainability” in the projects title and the candidate application is likely to be rejected. Is a thinking person truly one who conforms or one who rejects the concept of a sustainability as a disingenuous artifact to gain acceptance. The concept of unintended consequences has demonstrated that even long term planning does not make “the plan” sustainable. Economists are more likely to fail than not in their predictions. We falsely ascribe credibility to the admonitions of educated people who we believe actually think. Mostly they regurgitate. Donald Trump is not a “thinking man” in the traditional, accepted sense. He is a thinking man- because he is impolite, a bully, has anger issues, but is never dull. He is unafraid and therefore does not constrain his language to suit a particular audience, then modify it for another. He is a thinking man because he is irreverent- and irreverence is a measure of the freedom we have giving us permission to have the ability to say what we believe- even if it is not true or makes others uncomfortable. In our everyday conversations with family and friends- we are Donald Trump. We are angry, we curse, we say offensive things- and then we make up and start all over again. We say what we mean and mean what we sayuntil we don’t. The idea that in Universities students congregate to discuss ideas, debate, fight and explore has long ago been extinguished. Students are brought together to tow the party line, by learning to conform and to buy into pre-defined virtues and develop language skills that emphasize tolerance, political correctness and to exist in an environment that exclude ideas that deviate from the norm as being unacceptable. Intolerance, rage, threats and abusive behaviour are not acceptable. This is not as much a matter of learning words to express oneself but to supress what is natural. Sometimes there are no words to express frustration. Expulsion of individuals who conduct themselves outside this norm is considered to be abusive. Oppression is conducted with due process and it should be noted that due process can be oppressive, mostly because of its finality in limiting opportunity.
Interview with Gerald Auger By Hank Leis
The story of Gerald Auger is a tough story to hear. It is even more difficult to tell. There just seem to be no words that can express the horror of the lonely, hopeless life on the street for a child, that could possibly describe the fears, turmoil, and the angst that were part of everyday life. What happened was his personal experience, not for consumption by those who would make his story less by pitying. This is about how he lived and how he survived and became a warrior, accepting his fate as belonging to him, and then taking responsibility for it all-even the childhood years when others his age were protected escape-was no different from many in their surroundings. other young people who could not Auger has never had that sense of endure their life-and so escaped into being safe-not now-not ever. He the unknown rather than remain developed his survival skills at an and live the life that is hell each day.
perfected his routines and learned to speak English.
And then there were those times, when stuff happens-when things from nowhere have agendas and early age by not trusting anyone. His leaving was made simple. There motives that also come from He was born in a tiny village in was no choice. His father kicked nowhere-at least nowhere that can Alberta. His parents were alcoholics- him out. And so at the tender age easily be explained. no different from the others in his of twelve he hitchhiked to the grand He was standing by a bar in community. And his reaction to city of Edmonton, Alberta-where life Edmonton doing his usual bit of was better in the alleys, where rats scurried in the overflow of garbage just hanging around and running cans, and prostitution was rampant. for the working girls. A street cop He adapted well, by making friends approached him and asked him in similar circumstances-fighting what he was doing there-he said he for other’s leftover food, clothes and could tell from the way he spoke struggling to find shelter. Stealing, English there was more to him and drinking, taking and selling drugs he did not belong there. become a way of life- and all this Auger gave him his usual smart-alec while still barely speaking English, reply-but the comment haunted having only communicated in his him. He became preoccupied by native tongue. thoughts of his future. It was then He hitchhiked and hopped trains that he realized society’s perception from town to town. In addition to of all indigenous people as Edmonton he lived on the streets worthless, drunken welfare Indians. of Vancouver, Calgary, Regina, Things changed for him or perhaps Winnipeg, and Toronto. He he changed, and his life began to take a different direction.
In 1995, Auger was asked to be the token Indian boy with one of the Elders at the closing ceremonies at an event in Alberta. A talent agent spotted him and two weeks later he was on set in Italy and given a supporting role in the film, Il mio West (Gunslinger’s Revenge), starring David Bowie and Harvey Keitel. Auger graduated from Grande Prairie Regional College with a Marketing Management Diploma and a Small Business Management Certificate. He was president of the Student Association, president of the Student Society for Alberta Vocational College and the Circle of Aboriginal Students. He received the Charles S. Noble Student Leadership Award from the Department of Advanced Education and Province of Alberta. He was also awarded the National Native Role Model by the Governor General of Canada spending two years visiting more than 30 communities across Canada.
But this is not the end of the story because like all real stories how it ends is not that clear.
production of Lewis and Clark, Great Journey West-playing Sacagawea’s brother, Chief Cameahwait. He has also played Crow Hunter in Dreamkeeper, and Chief Ambrose Maquinna in the CTV produced Luna-Spirit of the Whale.
He has done the opening and closing ceremonies for the Arctic In 1998, Auger was given the Winter Games, had a role in FUBAR supporting role in Steven Spielberg’s 2, Western Confidential and The TV mini-series, Into the West Plateau. He landed the role of playing the role of Soaring Eagle. He Pawnee Killer in the AMC drama was also the first aboriginal recipient Hell on Wheels. He is currently of the Rotary International Integrity filming HBO’s Lewis and Clark. Award for the Avenue of Nations in He has written and produced Alberta. Walking Alone and Honour Thy Father. He won Best Film He has a lead role in the IMAXRepresenting Cultural Diversity at the Alberta Motion Picture Industry Awards. He wrote and produced The Ancients and is currently editing his sequel to Honour Thy Father, called The Forgotten Truth of the Wilderness. He is cast as Ghostkiller in Scattered Leaves: Legend of the Ghostkiller. He is owner and CEO of Black Eagle Entertainment-and he has plans to produce films, TV series and documentaries aimed at advancing the status of his indiginous people and debunking common stereotypes.
Gerald Auger has taken a six year sabbatical from Hollywood. He went home-yes to that village where he escaped from-to come to terms with his past and to seek groundingbecause even though the Hollywood life was rich and fun, he felt lonely and used and not at all part of that culture. He was and is neither fish nor fowl. He belongs somewhere and nowhere. His self-discovery has been slow and painful. He has gone back to his roots-looking for salvation. His grandfather died from a logging accident when he was 12 which ended his traditional land based teachings. His grandmother has passed away and the death of his father, Jack Richard Auger, inspired his film, Honour Thy Father. In the six years he reconnected with himself and people, ceremonies, the forests and the land. He has traversed the great divide and lives in both worlds. There is a brief story that also needs telling. There was a cop who used to “hassle” him when he was a so called “bad boy”. One day he was arriving in the Edmonton airport he heard the chief security guard being paged. He thought he recognized the name. He approached the man and asked if he could remember him. The man could not until Gerald pulled off his glasses. He recognized him immediately, Gerald thanked him for his advice-the chief of security teared up-sometimes the magic works. His official website is: www.geraldauger.ca
Hank Leis, author of, The Leadership Phenomenon: A Multidimensional Model with actor, Gerald Auger
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Vidcon
Suzette Laqua of Vancouver Web Fest with Mark Ruffalo
By Suzette Laqua I was a VidCon virgin. Never knowing much about VidCon, it was suggested to me by Bernie Su, Producer, Director, Writer and Vancouver Web Fest 2015’s keynote speaker, that I should check it out. So I did. I took the leap and landed in Anaheim at their convention centre for VidCon 2015. A little about VidCon for those who are also not familiar. The conference was started in 2010 by notable internet personages Hank and John Green, a.k.a the “Vlog Brothers.” The first conference held only 1,400 attendees but quickly ballooned to the size of a state university, and now features more than 145 speakers and 300 of YouTube’s biggest stars directly interacting with their fans. With over 22,000 people in attendance this year, the number of young preteens and teenagers, mostly girls, was insane. But then I remembered where I was, VidCon, where the masses of YouTubers, fans, and online video professionals take over Anaheim, California for 4 days. First on my ‘to do’ list was to contact Enrique Soissa, Country Manager for Dailymotion Canada. I found him and his Dailymotion USA coworkers
Suzette Laqua with Adobe and Bernie Su
gathered in one of the many conference rooms. I don’t remember the room, but it was jam packed with kids. Welcome to VidCon! Just as I turned I saw someone familiar, but I couldn’t remember his name. Enrique and his buddy’s clarified, it was Mark Ruffalo. OMG, I have to get a photo with him. He was there with his son, so I didn’t want to invade their time too much, but I smiled and politely asked for a photo. We chatted for a minute, caught up on all the latest, for about 2 minutes, and then thanked him and hugged him. I am a hugger after all! What a way to start off my first day at VidCon. I had my plan of action…what talks, keynote speakers, panels and screenings I wanted to see. But it’s amazing how side tracked you can become. Constantly meeting people and next thing you know you’ve missed that panel(s). But the people are great connections so it’s not a bad
With Nick Uhas
thing. One speaker I did manage to see was Susan Wojcicki, YouTube’s Chief Executive. One announcement that got the audience’s attention was a mobile redesign for the platform. She also called mobile YouTube’s top priority, which comes as no surprise considering the statistics shown during the presentation. More than half of YouTube views come from mobile devices, and mobile revenue is growing 100% year to year. As much as you hear about it and it’s all over the web, virtual reality is the new frontier. Wojcicki announced that later this year, YouTube will add 360-degree, 3-D video support that will “enable truly immersive virtual reality experiences.” Then it was time for the “New Form” Digital Industry Reception. This was a great networking opportunity. I was introduced to future sponsors, panelists, workshop speakers and attendees. Followed by an ‘invite only’
Adobe party. Which I was invited to, by Bernie Su – thanks Bernie. It was amazing, a really great group of people from Adobe. Fingers crossed we get Adobe at Vancouver Web Fest 2016 for a workshop (and sponsor). The evening was filled with great conversations, amazing talent and yummy food. Day 1 for me was over and a success!
amazing after sitting all day watching your favourite web series, panels and keynote speakers.
Back to why I was at VidCon. It was amazing to see how the digital world is rapidly changing. I’m well aware how quickly it’s changing, but when you see what’s out there and who is out there, it really opens your eyes. With YouTube Morning comes early sometimes, but continuing to explode in the decade I was very excited to get to VidCon since it first launched in 2005, to the for my Day 2 (but actually Day 3 of point where the top five most influential VidCon). The panels and keynote figures among American teens are speakers were really interesting. I all YouTube stars. Hence, half the went throughout the day meeting attendees at VidCon are kids. But one various peeps from around the world. thing that continuously came up over I did manage to meet one local guy, the 3 days I was there was how much it Drew Scott of The Property Brothers. had changed in its short 6 year history. He and his brother are originally from For instance, VidCon used to be about Maple Ridge. He was a real charmer, spotting your favorite YouTube or a really nice guy! Now I just need him Vine star, and then running, shrieking, to do something with my basement. to mob around them and get pictures Hint hint! I wrapped up Day 2 with taken with them. And while there was the invite only “Fullscreen” pool party. still plenty of that this year, there was Fullscreen, Inc. is a global network of also a lot more kids with the pressing content creators and brands on YouTube question: How do I make my channel owned by a joint venture of AT&T and relevant? YouTube, with its panels, was The Chernin Group. It too was a great always geared towards helping people networking opportunity. And then off grow their channels, but this year more to the YouTube party. It was crazy! than any other year, kids who are just But fun! Saw tons of YouTube stars starting out are looking for advice more including Lilly Singh, Tyler Oakley, than selfies. It is hinting at the power of and Matt Espinosa. Even though VidCon’s future for educating. I know I had absolutely no idea who these I learned a lot. YouTube stars were, it was important Until next time….maybe MIPCOM that I let them know who I was and in Cannes, France?? Go ahead, google that I was probably old enough to be it. their mom. They all had an amazing sense of humour, they either laughed with me or at me, but they laughed. So the lucky ones that did get their photos with me were King Bach, Nick Uhas, Joanna Sotomura & Brent Bailey (Lizzy Bennet Diaries), King Bach, Bart Baker, Nicole Arbour & Matthew Santoro (Canadian). So Day 3, my final day and the final day of VidCon. The Panasonic lounge. Massage chairs. Big massage chairs! Oh yeah! That’s how I started of my Saturday. And it was worth all 16 minutes in the chair. Something I’m thinking about bringing in to Vancouver Web Fest 2016. I think they’d go over well. But in the meantime, I think I’ve convinced our amazing sponsor, Mountainview Wellness, to bring in portable massage chairs, which are also
With Dave Brown (Victorious)
With Rachael of WebVee Guide
With Daily Motion Canada and US
With Joanna Sotomura and Brent Bailey
With Marzy Hart
With Drew Scott
With Bart Baker
IF YOU’RE SO SMART, WHY AREN’T YOU RICH? A REALISTIC ASSESSMENT OF MAKING MONEY IN THE STOCK MARKET By Dr Jack Wadsworth
Continued from previous issue As to be expected, the initial reaction to the concept of index mutual funds was somewhat negative. It was branded to be unAmerican since it removed all the individual enterprise from fund/portfolio management.
identify in advance and they very rarely repeat their unique performances. In fact it is possible to explain the appearance of these few on the basis of chance rather that skill. Malkiel has captured this “exceptional” performance as follows:
Furthermore, it was a “Rip-Van-Winkle” approach requiring only an initial purchase of the index or a wide range of stock that emulated the S&P index and then holding it forever. This type of management required no high flying Harvard MBA’s or expensive stock analyst researchers.
In any activity in which large numbers of people are engaged, although the average is likely to predominate, the unexpected is bound to happen. The very small numbers of really good performers we find in the investment management business actually is not at all inconsistent with the laws of chance. Indeed, as I mentioned earlier, the fact that good past performance of a mutual fund is generally of no help in predicting future performance only serves to emphasize this point.
The crusty Nobel Laureate academic, Samuelson, in his “speaking truth to power” mode expressed it delicately: But a respect for evidence compels me to incline towards the hypothesis that most portfolio decision makers should go out of business–take up plumbing, teach Greek, or help produce the annual GNP by serving as corporate executives. The immediate positive financial advantages of passive fund/portfolio management as opposed to active management are: • Considerably reduced management costs—no sophisticated stock selection through research and analysis and no needed stock market monitoring. • Considerably reduced transactional costs because of the very limited need to trade (sell and buy) stock. • Considerably reduced income tax costs because capital gains are not realized until the fund/portfolio is liquidated.
There is no doubt that there are examples of professional money managers who do beat the market—that is, produce financial performances that exceed the stock market averages. However, these few managers are very difficult to
24.
Perhaps the laws of chance should be illustrated. Let’s engage in a coin-flipping contest. Those who can consistently flip heads will be declared winners. The contest begins and 1,000 contestants flip coins. Just as would be expected by chance, 500 of them flip heads and these winners are allowed to advance to the second stage of the contest and flip again. As might be expected, 250 flip heads. Operating under the laws of chance, there will be 125 winners in the third round, 63 in the fourth, 31 in the fifth, 16 in the sixth, and 8 in the seventh. By this time, crowds start to gather to witness the amazing ability of these expert coin-flippers. The winners are overwhelmed with adulation. They are celebrated as geniuses in the art of coin-flipping, their biographies are written, and people urgently seek their advice. After all, there were 1,000 contestants and only 8 could consistently flip heads. The game continues and some contestants eventually flip heads 9 and 10 times in a row. The point of this analogy is not to indicate that investment-fund managers can or should make their decisions by flipping coins, but that the laws of chance do operate and they can explain some amazing success stories.
Whilst it may appear counter intuitive that a nihilistic passive approach to portfolio management is superior to active management employing the cream of the MBA crop, it can be rationalized by the currently accepted economic view of the stock market. The revolutionary concept of passive management is a natural outcome of the “Efficient Market Hypothesis”. The EMH simply postulates that security prices fully reflect all the available information. This means that security prices already take into account any public information that may be contained in balance sheets, income statements, dividends and the like. The EMH implies that all market players (fund managers, stock analysts, and the like) are constantly looking for securities which may outperform the market, and that this competition is so effective that any new information about the fortune of a company will be rapidly built into the price. The Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson sums up the situation as follows: If intelligent people are constantly shopping around for good value, selling those stocks that they think will turn out to be overvalued and buying those that they expect are now undervalued, the result of this action by intelligent investors will be to have existing stock prices already have discounted in them an allowance for their future prospects. Hence, to the passive investor, who does not himself search for under or over valued situations, there will be presented a pattern of stock prices that makes one stock about as good or as bad as another. To that passive investor, chance alone would be as good a method of selection as anything else.
The EMH does not state that stock prices move aimlessly and erratically and are insensitive to fundamental information. On the contrary, the reason prices move in a random fashion is just the opposite. The market is so efficient, prices move so quickly when new information arises, that no one can buy or sell fast enough to benefit. New news develops randomly, that is unpredictably. It cannot be predicted by studying either past technical or fundamental information. Even the legendary Benjamin Graham, heralded as the father of fundamental security analysis, reluctantly came to the conclusion that fundamental security analysis could no longer be counted upon to produce superior investment returns. Shortly before he died in 1976, he was quoted in an interview in the financial analysis journal as saying, “I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when Graham and Dodd was first published; the situation has changed... today I doubt whether such extensive effort will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their costs...I’m on the side of the efficient market school of thought”. Peter Lynch, just after he retired from managing the Magellan Fund, as well as the legendary Warren Buffett, admitted that most investors would be better off in an index fund rather than investing in an actively managed equity fund. The EMH provides the theoretical support for the practical reality that passively managed index funds and portfolios (needing no analysis, no stock picking or forecasting)
generally produce superior results compared to actively managed funds (using all possible analysis, stock picking and forecasting). This is tantamount to stating that it is impossible to forecast what will happen in the stock market. However, right from the inception of the EMH there have been challenges, both from academics and practitioners, to the universality that the market is always efficient in digesting and exchanging information. These challenges maintain that there are identifiable instances of market inefficiencies where active management could produce exceptional results— stock market behaviour could be forecast. Perhaps the major academic challenge is to the fundamental assumption that all the players in the market are rational. It is definitely erroneous to assume that all people in the stock market continuously act in a rational manner, omitting the effects of culture, advertisement and other influences on decision making. The construct of a rational player in the market implies the widespread existence of Homo Economicus. This economic man (yes, he is male) never had a childhood, never has children, has never depended upon a caregiver and does not have anyone he provides care for. He only experiences well-being by making money. He is rational, selfish, a psychopath... he isn’t influenced by hundreds of billions of dollars in advertising or the purchases of his neighbours and colleagues. Shiller concluded from the study of the history of stock market fluctuations that stock prices show far too much variability to be explained by an efficient market theory of pricing. He asserts that one must look to behavioural considerations and to crowd psychology to explain the actual process of price determination in the stock market. He maintains that these characteristics can lead to predictable patterns of stock price movements and can be used by savvy investors to implement successful investment strategies. As has been mentioned earlier in this writing, a googling of “making money in the stock market” will produce a myriad of sure fire ways of forecasting and therefore beating the market. Malkiel has reviewed, and dismissed most of the popular schemes: • Some attempts to discredit the unpredictability of the market are just dismissed as ridiculous. These are the alleged correlation with who wins the Super Bowl and the height of women’s hemlines. • It takes a little closer look to dismiss the old chestnuts of “Dogs of the Dow”, the January effect, the “Thank God It’s Monday Afternoon” pattern, and the Hot News Response. • It takes some analysis to dispose of schemes that seek to nail down the market’s direction such as Trend is you friend, the Dividend Jackpot Approach, the Initial P/E Predictor, and the “Back We Go Again” Strategy. • Deeper analysis is needed to fairly reject the cross sectional strategies of the “Smaller is Better” Effect and the claim that Value Will Win.
While some of these strategies may have some merit, some more than others, not one is able consistently to penetrate the veil of unpredictability cloaking the market.
The comments of Richard Roll (He holds the Japan Alumni Chair in Finance at UCLA Anderson, and has functioned as a business man running billions of dollars of investment funds.) on market effi ciency are particular noteworthy: I have personally tried to invest money, my client’s money and my own, in every single anomaly and predictive device that academics have dreamed up... I have attempted to exploit the so called year end anomalies and a whole variety of strategies supposedly documented by academic research. And I have yet to make a nickel on any of these supposed market ineffi ciencies... I agree that investor psychology plays an important role. But, I have to keep coming back to my original point that a true market ineffi ciency ought to be an exploitable opportunity. If there’s nothing investors can exploit in a systematic way, time in and time out, then its very hard to say that information is not being properly incorporated into stock prices... Real money investment strategies don’t produce the results that academic papers say they should.
Malkiel has gone on the record to state what he holds to be true, a conviction that has grown more steadfast over time— his Nicene Creed of investing:
Figure 6: Components of Growth Bogle correctly asserts, using the thinking of Keynes, that the three components of stock market growth are:
No one can consistently predict either the direction of • Dividend yield of the company. the stock market or the relative attractiveness of individual • The earnings growth of the company. stocks, and thus no one can consistently obtain better overall • Speculative return due to the changing psychology of the returns than the market. And while there are undoubtedly market— those factors which cause stock market bubbles to profi table trading opportunities that occasionally appear, infl ate and burst. these are quickly wiped out once they become known. No The time span of a millennium, to most investors, is one person or institution has yet to produce a long term, something of a geological age. However, on this timescale consistent record of fi nding money making, risk adjusted the stock market has relentlessly grown at an average rate of individual stock trading opportunities, particularly if they over 9% per year—in spite of wars, recessions, bubbles, as pay taxes and incur transaction costs. well as fantastic technological and socio-economic changes. The graphical raison d’être for investing in index funds for If the rate of infl ation during the last millennium is taken to the long term has been provided by Bogle—justifi cation for be 3%, then the real growth of one’s stock portfolio would the passive approach of buying and holding...for ever. Figure have been over 6% per year. This would have been quite 5 shows the behaviour of the S&P index (the market) over the an impressive performance and would have been automatic last millennium. This semi-logarithmic plot (the vertical axis bragging rights in any cocktail conversation. Unfortunately, is a logarithmic scale) shows how one invested dollar has few of us can contemplate such a life span. grown at the steady average rate of 9.6% per annum. Figure The bar charts in fi gure 6 offer some interesting insights: 6 breaks out the components of this growth—averaged for The upper bar chart shows that the investment return each decade. (dividend yield plus earnings growth) from one’s portfolio for most decades has ranged from 6.8 to 14.9%--with the exception of the 1930’s when it was a negative. The positive and negative effects of bubbles and the like are clearly shown in the middle bar chart. The amazing fact is that when averaged for the whole millennium the speculative return is virtually zero—coming in at only 0.1%! Combining investment and speculative returns yields the lower bar chart which provides the immediate caution that one cannot afford to be passively invested for the short term. In fact, it is blatantly revealed that perhaps the shortest term for passive investment to succeed is 2 decades—20 years!! Certain decades, totalling 30% of the millennium, produced returns less than bond rates.
Figure 5: Market Growth
To be continued in the next issue of Metanoia
In Memoriam: Jack Wadsworth We are sad to announce the passing away of our contributor, Jack Wadsworth on August 8th, 2015. Jack was a friend of all of us who are involved in the publication of Metanoia Magazine and MWC. He was a gentle man, meticulous in his research and clear in articulating his thought on all matters. The doctors of MWC were not only his caregivers but friends. Dr. Jack Wadsworth graduated from University of Leeds, UK, 1954 with a Bachelor’s degree in Mechanical Engineering and a Ph.D. In Engineering Physics— specializing in heat transfer. He joined the Royal Navy Scientific Service and did research on underwater weaponry. He joined the Mechanical Engineering Division of the National Research Council, Ottawa, in 1956 and was immediately sent off to M.I.T. to do course work in Nuclear Reactor Engineering. He published in the area of heat transfer processes in Nuclear Reactors and Nuclear weaponry. In 1966 he joined the National Aeronautical Establishment, NRC Ottawa, to head the Motor Vehicle accident study group.
Resulting from publications in this area in 1973 he was invited to join the multi-disciplinary study group in Federal Treasury Board looking at the effectiveness of government spending and implementing better financial management. He published policy analysis studies of Agricultural subsidies, supporting scientific research and Post-Secondary Education. In 1981 he was invited to direct the first Budget & Financial Analysis group in Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. In 1983 he was invited to join the Office of the Auditor General of Canada as a director and before retiring in 1995 audited Parks Canada, the Atmospheric Environment Service, Forestry and Native housing in the Arctic. While at the OAG was responsible for organizing several international symposia and meetings. He is survived by his pregnant wife, Juliette Wadsworth, and other family members.
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The International Dr. Huma Mir is a media celebrity who successfully established herself as a leading TV Actor, Anchor, Author, Columnist and Media Consultant. She was only 5 years old when she made her first media appearance. ‘Hum he Hum’ and ‘Saat Suron ki Dunya’ were her early childhood shows on Pakistan Television in which she participated as singer with numerous other children. Simultaneously she was doing Kids Shows ‘Tote Batote’ and ‘Bachhon ki Dunya’ on Radio Pakistan. Making her debut as a singer she soon started participating in Television Plays and got busy as a child star. Her famous dramas as a child were Chaman Apartments, Bahadur Ali, Mera Naam Mangu and many others. She also acted in few skits of the famous Comedy Show ‘Fifty Fifty’. Being a member of an educated family she was asked by her parents to focus more on her studies in science because she wanted to become a doctor. Having passion for screen as well as Medicine, she devoted herself to books and studies. It was perhaps the happiest day in her life when she was admitted to Medical College. She worked hard and studied day and night to achieve high marks. After school, she took modeling assignments and has been on the front page of showbiz magazines. Her charming innocent face was best suitable for leading roles in Pakistani dramas and she got them.
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with Former President of Pakistan, General (retired) Pervez Musharraf.
Soon she became a versatile TV star and performed landmark roles in many television drama serials. She is the first Pakistani actor who has performed from almost all the centers of Pakistan Television Corporation. She is categorized as an ‘outstanding’ artist by Pakistan Television. Her father Prof. Mir Hamid Ali, a well-known Broadcaster and News Anchor has always been her inspiration. She followed his footsteps to become an anchor. She is one of the most sought after Anchor and Master of Ceremonies for National and State functions attended by the President and Prime Minister of Pakistan as well as foreign dignitaries. With an excellent command of Urdu and English languages and a wide knowledge base, she has been conducting live TV programs on diversified topics such as Art and Culture, Politics, International Affairs and Social Issues. Her Showbiz career and Medicine ran side by side. She graduated from Sindh Medical College, completed her House job at Jinnah Hospital and was then appointed a Woman Medical Officer by the Government of Sindh. Her first posting was in Thatta, Sindh. Later she was posted to a Basic Health Unit in Karachi. Although her dream of becoming a doctor came true, for family reasons she resigned from her government job. The turning point in her life was when she decided to prove herself in Media and switched away from medicine. She did an Advanced Diploma in Communication Studies from CAM Foundation. Her modules were Advertising, Marketing, Research, Public Relations, Direct Marketing and Sales Promotion. Pakistan Advertising Institute awarded her a gold medal on this achievement. She is the first Pakistani girl to qualify. In 2001 she embarked on a new journey and was appointed as Event Manager at an Advertising Agency. As an event
manager she organized many events like musical concerts, product promotion displays, fun fairs, etc. In 2004 Dr. Huma Mir was appointed as Director, Pakistan Advertising Institute and in 2006 she was hired as Media and Public Relations Consultant to Sui Southern Gas Company, Pakistan. As well Dr. Huma Mir had her own advertising firm called ‘Tulips Communications’. Having done well in Advertising, Public Relations and Media Dr. Huma Mir also got involved in the Arts Council of Pakistan. She was elected a member of the Governing Body and was assigned to the Youth Committee. As a member of the Chairperson Youth Committee, she organized, conducted and hosted many programs to promote young talent. She headed the Youth Committee and received the highest votes in every election. In 2011 Dr. Huma Mir contested the post of Treasurer and was a winner again. She served as Treasurer for 3 consecutive years and in 2014 she was elected Joint Secretary Arts Council of Pakistan, Karachi. She has many Literary, Musical, Social and Cultural programs to her credit. She is the most popular candidate and has made a record of securing the highest number of votes in any Arts Council Annual Elections ever. Her love for Art & Culture, interest in literature and urge to do more made her think of doing a Masters in Urdu Literature. She then decided to do a Masters of Arts at the University of Karachi. Dr. Huma Mir is among those very few people who after graduating in Medicine went on to complete a Masters in Literature; a fine and unique combination. She proved herself studious and competent by acquiring First Class Position in her MA in Urdu.
L: at the Colloseum in Rome Italy. R: receiving Advertising Award by former Minister of State of Information for Pakistan
L: at Ad Asia 2005 in Singapore. R: in Pisa, Italy
L: Conducting 6th International Urdu Conference. R: Enjoying the water from Hot Springs of Karlovy Vary, Czech Republic
As a literature student she started writing articles in different magazines and newspapers and in a short span of time, became an authentic writer and columnist. Her columns are published regularly in leading newspapers and publications. Her writing skills peaked when she wrote the biography of famous Pakistani actor Talat Hussain. The book, titled, ‘Yeh Hain Talat Hussain’ became a big success as did her second book ‘Kuch Aur..’, which is based on short stories. She made her presence felt among the Authors Community.
L: At the Marketing Institute in Singapore. R: With other delegates of Advertising Conference with former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shaukst Aziz
Dr. Huma Mir is in Canada these days and is active in social circles. She is contributing to local publications and also anchoring shows and events. With so many degrees, Radio & Television appearances, Media Exposure, Corporate experience, contribution towards Arts, Culture and Literature Dr. Huma Mir still thinks of adding to her activities. The sky is the limit. L: Conducting a Quiz Show on PTV. R: at Jumerah Beach in Dubai
The Dan Walker Chronicles Shenyang & North Korea This morning the power was off and on several times. It makes riding in an elevator a daunting thought, but in a 47 story building the alternative is not great either. Water is turned off at night, and for most of the night electricity is turned off throughout the country to be directed to factories - which explains why North Korea shows totally dark in world satellite photos at night. It took us 25 minutes to get to the lobby, as every elevator coming down was full. We eventually took an elevator up to the 46th floor and came back down a floor at a time as it picked up people. There are 8 elevators, but there are only 4 in service at a time. Our destination this morning was Nampo and the Great Sea Barrage. This was a huge construction project of an 8 km (5 mi) long causeway for a breakwater, road and railway, spillways for fish and a set of gates to control tide so the level of the Taedong River, which flows through Pyongyang. There are three locks for shipping: one for ships up to 2,000 tons, one up to 20,000 tons and one to 50,000 tons. The area was covered with dense fog, so we could see little from the observation area, but we did watch a movie on the construction, laced with the obligatory large dose of propaganda. Once down at dam level we could see three freighters going through the locks in line. We arrived here on the worst road yet, even though it was 8 lanes wide. With almost no cars what a waste of money - obviously it is for show. It would have been more sensible to build one lane each way and keep it repaired There seems to be little concern for others. We passed a person lying in the middle of the highway, likely hit by a car that didn’t stick around. Four pedestrians had come to help and were desperately trying to flag a vehicle down, likely to get the injured person to hospital. We saw half a dozen vehicles go out of their way to avoid stopping. Our driver and guides had no intention of stopping either - not their problem. There are a lot of broken down locally made army vehicles along all the highways, and armies of women
sweeping both highways & city streets with twig brooms. It is impossible to take photos as the driver pounds the vehicle over roads at high speed. Perhaps this is why there is little restriction on photography! They are apparently not permitted to stop for photos. We made the compulsory visit to Kim Il Sung square where we were informed we were to bow to the 20 meter (66 foot) bronze statues of Kim Il & son Kim Un. Not bloody likely - I informed them we don’t bow to statues. If they took the money they spend on statues, posters, and billboards that are everywhere they would have more than enough to repair the roads. It was interesting to ride the subway (Metro). It is billed as the deepest in the world at 100 meters (328 ft) below
Gymnasts Perform in North Korea for Grand Finale for tour
ground level. It is reached by the longest escalator I’ve ridden on. They modelled stations on the Moscow subway, with beautiful chandeliers and lots of huge paintings of the propaganda type. The trains are older but spotlessly clean. The 35 km long subway system was started in 1968 and finished in 1973. We wanted to see some regular stores and markets where the residents shop, but that that is prohibited. If it is like other Stalinist countries they likely have little in them, and thus the prohibition. The library was interesting. It is a massive marble building with main floor rooms several stories high. It has an electronic book cataloguing system and banks of computers where people look for books. Once found one goes to a counter with the number of the book and it is delivered by conveyor
belt. They claim to have over 30 million books including over a million foreign titles stored on 260 km (162 miles) of shelves. There are also rooms for listening to music, and 7 rooms with computer screens for digital books. The library employs 157 lecturers and has an average of 6,000 users per day. It is 10 stories high and is humidity and temperature controlled. A stop was made at the Worker’s Party Foundation Monument, a 50 meter high monstrosity done in the Soviet style with fists holding hammer and sickle. It is the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the party. Hundreds of women in colourful full length national dresses were gathered for the occasion. The grand finale for the day was the circus, held in a building built for the purpose. The stages move one on top of the other, the lower one being an ice rink where early performances included figure skating, acrobatics on skates and a bear plus two baboons skating. The show went on with spectacular trampoline and acrobatic acts, ending with breathtaking high wire and trapeze acts. We sat in the same area as the Hong Kong University group we met on the plane. They also leave by train tomorrow, except from the US students. US citizens are not permitted to ride by train, they must fly to Beijing. Dinner was a BBQ where we also sampled the high test Korean alcohol - possibly their answer to vodka.
Dan Walker is an adventurer, a businessman, and raconteur. He has visited every country in the world. His trusty Rolls Royce has taken him across many continents. He includes his grandchildren in some of his travels allowing them to select the destination. Originally, he hails from Victoria, British Columbia, but now resides in Costa Rica. We are pleased to present the Dan Walker Chronicles.
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Kidnapping, Extortion, Blackmail Costa Rican Style From: ryan.amlewis@sigaint.org Date: 18/08/2015 07:12 (GMT-08:00) To: marilynnWalker.cr@Gmail.com Subject: Self Rescue From Daniel Marilynn. We wanted to extend a one time offer to clear the slate as you are the only method we have to punish Dan. If you make arrangements to pay the principal of Dans debt by Friday including a 10 percent deposit. Then this will end and go no further. Failure to accept his total debt of 120.000 will mean all other interest and penalties are due and you will become our torture tool to inspire him. Right now you take for granted simple things like starting your car or opening mail. I hope that doesn't change. I look forward to your reply. from: ryan.amlewis@sigaint.org to: wdanielwalker@gmail.com date: Sat, Aug 22, 2015 at 6:58 AM subject: Marilynn mailed-by: sigaint.org Daniel, We have reached a new level. We sent a message to Marilynn giving her an opportunity to self rescue from future actions. The offer was for a fraction of the total amount owing forgiving interest and only claiming the principal. Ryans abduction was not enough to inspire you so now we will proceed with random acts of violence directed at her. Our intention will be to mame and disfi gure initially. The problem is the devices and components used are not precise. Also how quickly she receives medical care after will determine the damage. Acid is a tricky substance to control but combined explosives as a delivery system it is anybodys guess. We hoped it wouldn't come to this but we see no other way to inspire you. Enjoy her as she is now and remember you had the opportunity to prevent all the damage that she will be subjected to. The long term affects are also important as she will never feel the same way when a car starts or opening a piece a mail. Even walking in public won't be the same as she will never know who will be the next to throw a glass of acid into her face.
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Leading to the arrest and conviction of the perpetrators Contact metanoiamagazine@gmail.com
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MISSIVES FROM DONALD J BOUDREAUX This letter is a response to an e-mail from a homeschooling mom in Colorado. Don http://www.cafehayek.com ...................................... 20 July 2015 Dear Ms. Lauderdale: Thanks for your e-mail. You wonder why I don’t share your “fear that robots and technology will make only the 1% richer and make the rest of us poor by wiping out all the jobs.... There won’t be a thing left for human workers to do.”
can afford to use robots and other technologies to satisfy all of their economic needs and wants. There are no jobs for humans in this fantastic world only because robots and other technologies are the most affordable options for every person to use to satisfy each and every one of his or her economic desires. In contrast, if all of those jobs cannot be done by robots and other technologies at prices that everyone can afford, then the robots and other technologies have not achieved what your scenario assumes they achieve, namely, the wiping out of all opportunities for humans to work gainfully for each other. In short, a society in which robots and other technologies are so advanced and inexpensive to use that they are the least-costly way to satisfy all human economic desires cannot possibly also be a society with lots of poor people (that is, a society with lots people who cannot afford to satisfy many of their economic needs). Sincerely,
Your fear, which is widely shared, makes no sense Donald J. Boudreaux when you think about it. A society in which most people are poor and yet is also a society that contains Professor of Economics no opportunities for people to engage in productive, and gainful work for each other is difficult even to conceive, and in reality is an impossibility. Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center The essence of being poor is having an unusually large number of unmet economic needs and wants. Poor George Mason University people suffer the likes of too little clothing, cramped and poorly furnished housing, transportation vehicles that Fairfax, VA 22030 are dangerous and frequently break down, untreated illnesses - the list is long. So a society with many poor people is a society with an especially large number of jobs to be done rather than one with not “a thing left for human workers to do.” Now you’ll interject here by saying “Yes, but all those jobs will be done by robots and other technologies” – to which I respond: If all of those jobs can indeed be done by robots and other technologies at prices that everyone can afford, then everyone is very rich and no one is poor. The reason is that, by your assumption, everyone
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