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Setting the Stage for 2018 Trends Middle-market M&A strengthens in 2018 STRONGER M&A ACTIVITY IN THE MIDDLE-MARKET ARENA THIS YEAR WOULD BUILD ON THE POSITIVE MOMENTUM RECORDED IN 2017.
H
eightened private equity investing, increasing valuations and a growing number of deals involving foreign buyers are likely to drive U.S. middle-market activity higher in 2018. Stronger M&A activity in the middlemarket arena this year would build on the positive momentum recorded in 2017. Middle-market companies—institutions with annual revenue ranging from $10 million to $1 billion—were targets in $100 billion in announced deals. That represents a 14 percent increase from the levels seen in 2016 and marks the highest aggregate value for middle-market deals since 2014, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Middle-market M&A activity in 2017 was bolstered by strength in the technology
space, which led all sectors in both the number of deals and total deal value, generating 90 transactions with nearly $22 billion in aggregate value. Private equity firms also helped drive middle-market M&A activity higher in 2017. Leveraged buyout activity in the middlemarket space rose to $8.9 billion in 2017 from $6.7 billion a year earlier. The level of activity last year marked the highest disclosed dollar amount for middle-market leveraged buyouts since 2013, when $10.5 billion in transactions occurred. Private equity interest in middle-market companies seems unlikely to wane in 2018, with firms holding in excess of $1 trillion of so-called dry powder, or capital raised but not yet deployed. For instance, in January 2018 alone, Compass Diversified Holdings LLC agreed to
U.S. Middle-Market M&A - Average TEV/EBITDA by Year Average announced middle-market deal valuations based on TEV/EBITDA last year rose to the highest level since 2014.
25 20 15 10 5 0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Data as of 2/15/2018
MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT | 1
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purchase Foam Fabricators Inc. for $247 million, and Francisco Partners Management LLC announced plans to acquire a controlling stake in health care technology firm Connecture Inc. for $112 million. Traditional strategic buyers should support further M&A activity in the middle-market arena as well, as cash in corporate America stands at extraordinary levels. Calculations place total cash and investment holdings among nonfinancial and real estate S&P 500 companies at more than $2 trillion. The passage of tax reform should cause that number to increase even further as companies receive a windfall of profits from the corporate tax rate falling to 21 percent from 35 percent. As middle-market M&A moves ahead in 2018, we anticipate valuations may edge higher. The average valuation in 2017, based on a transaction’s total enterprise value relative to a target’s 12-month trailing EBITDA, rose to 19.3x from 16.3x in 2016, marking the highest multiple since 2014.
Announced U.S. Middle-Market M&A Summary * Transaction Screening Aggregates Merger & Acquisition Statistics
2014
2015
2016
2017
108,624.3
96,262.0
87,893.5
100,153.2
Valuation Summary Total Deal Value($mm) Average Deal Value:
178.4
172.8
190.9
222.6
Average TEV/Revenue:
2.52
2.08
2.08
2.63
Average TEV/EBITDA:
19.84
13.10
16.32
19.25
Number of Deals by Transaction Ranges $500 - $1000.0mm
56
59
49
72
$100 - $499.9mm
242
185
160
168
$0.1 - $99.9mm
311
313
250
210
*Transactions where a target’s annual revenue is between $10 million and $1 billion, and disclosed transaction value is $1 billion or less. Data as of 2/15/2018
While many economists believe the current U.S. economic cycle could be entering the late stages, U.S. corporate profits just recently reached a record level of $1.86 trillion in the third quarter of 2017, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The surplus of cash and the current phase of the economic cycle could increase buyers’ willingness to bid assets higher. Borrowing costs have begun to rise and that could potentially deter some buyers, but steady increases in interest rates last year failed to cool activity or hinder valuations. There remains strong interest from foreign buyers in the U.S. middle-market space as well. Last year, the disclosed value of foreign purchases of middle-market U.S. companies exceeded $20 billion for the second consecutive year, while the number of deals reached the highest level since 2011. As principal analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, Richard Peterson provided in-depth evaluation of capital markets activity from M&A transactions, IPO issuance, corporate cash balances and fixed-income underwriting.
2 | MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT
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Health Care
The S&P Capital IQ platform provides a powerful array of financial data, analytics and research. The web-based platform combines deep information on companies, markets and people worldwide, featuring robust tools for analysis, idea generation and workflow management. Utilizing the platform to examine the trends in health care over 2017, we see that demands and services for health care continue to grow. Health care reform—involving the way care is provided, where it’s provided, the value received, and how it’s paid for and funded—is a major issue, and all elements are under redesign in some way. Here’s a look at health care by the numbers.
TRANSACTIONS IN 2017 BY REGION
TOP FIVE
MOST ACTIVE SECTORS
618 307
61
1,060
48
HEALTH CARE SERVICES 544 Deals Completed
TARGET
HEALTH CARE FACILITIES
BUYER
$30.3 BILLION
370 Deals Completed
WAS THE LARGEST
HEALTH CARE TRANSACTION IN 2017
TRANSACTIONS IN 2017 BY QUARTER
PHARMACEUTICALS
Q3
Q2
Q1
595
Q4
263 Deals Completed 522
496
481
HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT
TRANSACTIONS BY YEAR
2018 YTD
2,094 Deals
2017
2,406 Deals
2016
2,699 Deals
2015
2014
2013
2,092 Deals
2,431 Deals
217 Deals Completed
HEALTH CARE TECHNOLOGY 213 Deals Completed
225 Deals
Source: S&P Capital IQ platform - Data as of 2/15/2018
MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT | 3
TRENDSREPORT HEALTH CARE
Why Private Equity Likes Radiology Private equity interest in radiology is now growing for many of the same reasons behind the growth of emergency care and anesthesia
STEVE STANG Principal CliftonLarsonAllen
W
ith the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, private equity activity involving hospitals and contract-based specialty practices began to increase significantly. Early on, much of this activity involved emergency medicine, and several practice consolidators emerged during this period. Anesthesia followed emergency medicine as the next top specialty focus area for consolidators and private equity firms. Ironically, while radiology has long been viewed as a leading field for adopting new technologies and practices, it has lagged behind emergency medicine and anesthesia when it comes to private equity activity. That appears to be changing now; private equity interest in radiology is now growing for many of the same reasons behind the growth of emergency care and anesthesia. Radiology is a highly fragmented $18 billion-plus industry. As reimbursement continues to shift from volume to value, hospital consolidation continues, and technology and infrastructure needs increase. More and more independent radiology groups are determining that they need to partner in order to prosper—and in some cases, to survive. In today’s health care environment, imaging is increasingly becoming more critical to improving the overall quality of care, including for care coordination, utilization management, big data, and improved quality and outcomes. Core market drivers that make radiology appealing to private equity include: ɒɒ
Market size
ɒɒ
Highly fragmented market
ɒɒ
Favorable demographics (i.e., aging population)
4 | MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT
ɒɒ
Increasing technology costs
ɒɒ
Need for improved back-office operations
ɒɒ
Increasingly central role in population health management
ɒɒ
Importance of scale for success
Private equity groups recognize the tremendous opportunity to scale the business model. There are many groups that can act as platform investments to scale to regional or national providers. In fact, the largest independent radiology groups in the country continue to grow. Radiology Business reported in its 2017 Top 100 listing that the number of groups with 65 or more full-time-equivalent, or FTE, radiologists grew to 28 in 2017 from eight in 2009. The average number of FTEs in the top 10 groups increased to 121 in 2017 from 100 in 2015.
TRENDSREPORT HEALTH CARE In addition, there are a tremendous number of add-on opportunities. The Radiology Business 2017 ranking showed that the top 50 groups had a combined 3,837 radiologist FTEs—only 12 percent of the more than 30,000 radiologists estimated nationally.
The 50 Largest Radiology Groups Are Growing Average Number of Radiologists - Full-Time-Equivalents
2015
Several factors that make private equity attractive to radiology groups include:
2016
2017
Top 10 Groups
100 121
Top 11-25 Groups
70
Increasing technology needs – Compared with other specialties, radiology requires much higher technology capital expenditures. Faced with increasing costs, many groups recognize that their future compensation may likely decrease.
107
Physician leadership – First and foremost, quality of care is the most critical factor when deciding to partner. Unlike acquisitions by hospitals, radiology groups acquired by private equity often retain control over things like care protocols, hospital relationships, scheduling and other patient-centered activities.
105
Personal liquidity – Often a radiologist’s largest personal asset is the value of his practice. By selling the practice to a private equity firm, the radiologist can better diversify his personal portfolio and mitigate risk.
73
Shifting radiologist demographics – As baby boomers age, a large number of retirements are expected in the coming years. These retirees are often being replaced by younger radiologists who are less interested in running the business side of a practice. Top 26-50 Groups
55
Steve Stang is a principal at CliftonLarsonAllen with more than 26 years of experience. He currently serves as the firm’s health care transactions services practice leader.
69
All these factors are increasing private equity investment in the radiology space, and this trend is expected to continue for several years.
54
Long-term gain – Almost every private equity transaction will require the radiologists to roll over part of their equity. However, it allows the radiologist to participate in potential gains when the private equity group exits its position in five to seven years.
0
30
60
90
120
Source: Radiology Business’ 2017 “Radiology 100” Ranking
MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT | 5
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Retail
Utilizing the S&P Capital IQ platform to examine trends in retail over 2017 shows that retail isn’t dead, but it is declining. With a lack of millennial brand loyalty impacting retailers, many consumer products companies are turning to digital technologies and in-house venture capital funds to drive innovation and differentiate themselves. Here’s a look at retail by the numbers.
TRANSACTIONS IN 2017 BY REGION
TOP FIVE
MOST ACTIVE SECTORS
329 198
48
219
24
INTERNET & DIRECT MARKETING 277 Deals Completed
TARGET
BUYER
$8.7 BILLION
WAS THE LARGEST
DISTRIBUTORS 236 Deals Completed
RETAIL TRANSACTION IN 2017
TRANSACTIONS IN 2017 BY QUARTER
SPECIALTY STORES
Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4
94 Deals Completed 239
210
182
187
APPAREL RETAIL
TRANSACTIONS BY YEAR 1,008 Deals
Source: S&P Capital IQ platform - Data as of 2/15/2018 6 | MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT
2018 YTD
2017
2016
818 Deals
2015
2014
2013
993 Deals
999 Deals
1,092 Deals
83 Deals Completed
78 Deals
HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL 40 Deals Completed
TRENDSREPORT RETAIL
To Stay on Trend, Retailers Are Changing the Way They Market Disruptors are reshaping consumer behavior and, in response, retailers are stepping up their game
CAROL LAPIDUS National Industry Practice Leader RSM US LLP
R
etail is in a state of conventional disruption and vital transformation, from the tremendous growth in consumers’ use of e-commerce to the rise of personalized mobile shopping apps and elaborate in-store shopping experiences. Thriving brands and retailers are addressing these changes head-on to meet consumer needs, reinvigorate their brands, stay relevant and remain profitable. RSM’s national industry practice leaders, Carol Lapidus, consumer products, and John Nicolopoulos, retail and restaurant, share their insights.
What has changed in terms of how retailers are marketing and selling to consumers?
JOHN NICOLOPOULOS National Industry Practice Leader RSM US LLP
Carol Lapidus: Consumers want convenience and value, and these key preferences are changing the way retailers market, engage and sell to them. For instance, we’re seeing an increase in subscription-based services, particularly for apparel, where apparel and accessories are curated for the individual consumer based on his or her personal choices. This saves consumers time and effort since the shopping is done for them. Companies like Stitch Fix are capitalizing on this trend. They’re appealing to busy consumers because they offer desired products and act as a personal stylist all in one convenient service at a bundled price. In addition, while we know online shopping is desirable for shoppers, we’re still seeing 70 to 80 percent of shopping occur at brick-and-mortar stores. However, physical stores are not always about vast quantities
of products in every size and color. Rather, some innovative stores, like the newly launched Nordstrom Local, have created experiential showrooms where consumers can meet with a personal stylist, sip a latte, get a manicure, and be pampered as they consider clothing purchases.
WHILE WE KNOW ONLINE SHOPPING IS DESIRABLE FOR SHOPPERS, WE’RE STILL SEEING 70 TO 80 PERCENT OF SHOPPING OCCUR AT BRICK-AND-MORTAR STORES. HOWEVER, PHYSICAL STORES ARE NOT ALWAYS ABOUT VAST QUANTITIES OF PRODUCTS IN EVERY SIZE AND COLOR. It’s truly a shopping destination, but shopping may not be the primary objective for the consumer. It’s about the memorable experience.
MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT | 7
TRENDSREPORT RETAIL community, gauge likes, and inevitably direct consumers to purchase products.
Given this fast-moving climate of change and disruption, are private equity firms investing in retail and if so, where?
Another interesting way retailers are reaching out and selling to customers is through social media outlets like Snapchat or Instagram. Products are featured on these channels and with a tap, consumers move on to more information or the ability to purchase products seamlessly. Retailers are using this strategy more and more to form connections and provide convenient shopping avenues for their customers. John Nicolopoulos: Digital media marketing and sales methods like this are essential for today’s retailer. To be successful, retailers need a multipronged strategy to engage and sell to consumers, and an omnichannel approach is key, from interacting with the customer on social media, and providing helpful product information and reviews online, to offering a complementary showroom experience. Likewise, another change or disruptor we’re seeing in retail is the growing importance of social influencers. Consumers are getting inspiration from fashion bloggers, for instance, who might feature an outfit of the day or a limited supply of an exclusive product. These influencers, sometimes compensated by retailers or apparel manufacturers, churn up excitement and urgency around products and can be drivers for sales. It’s a definite gamechanger for retail and another way to connect, nurture 8 | MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT
John Nicolopoulos: We all know retail is changing. That frightens those who believe retail is dying and it excites those who equate change with opportunity. We continue to see private equity investment flowing toward retail, although the categories of greatest interest have evolved with consumer spending. For instance, as residential real estate markets have improved, we’ve seen increased investment activity in home furnishing companies as consumers invest more in their homes. We’ve also seen private equity investment follow consumer spending on health- and beauty-related retail businesses. Americans are spending more on health clubs, spas and salons, and private equity firms are trying to capitalize on those trends. We’re seeing investment in a broader spectrum of retail businesses, far beyond more traditional categories that come to mind when we think of traditional retail. We’ve also seen upticks in related businesses that support retail, specifically technology businesses that can support the changing expectations of the U.S. consumer. The digital transformation of the retail environment has spawned the growth of technology companies specializing in this space. We’ve seen investment in these companies come from a variety sources. Although not direct investment in the retailer, we’d be remiss not to acknowledge investments being made in businesses supporting and driving change through the retail industry, whether from venture firms, private equity firms or large strategic acquirers. Read more in RSM’s “Dealing with Disruption: Retail’s Challenge and Opportunity” at www.rsmus.com/retaildisruption. Carol Lapidus is RSM’s national industry practice leader for consumer products; John Nicolopoulos is the firm’s industry practice leader for retail and restaurants.
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Regulation
The Securities and Exchange Commission has indicated that it will prioritize efforts to protect retail investors, which could signal a reduction in its examinations of private equity advisers. Under the leadership of SEC Chairman Jay Clayton, who was sworn in last May, the commission has also expressed a desire to reduce unnecessary compliance burdens, although how the SEC will implement its priorities under its new leadership remains to be seen. For now, here’s a look at the how the SEC approached enforcement in 2017. THE SEC’S NATIONAL EXAM PROGRAM The Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations conducts the SEC’s National Exam Program (NEP). The NEP’s stated mission is to protect investors, ensure market integrity and support responsible capital formation through risk-focused strategies intended to:
IMPROVE COMPLIANCE
PREVENT FRAUD
MONITOR RISK
INFORM POLICY
IN FISCAL YEAR 2017
THE U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Obtained judgments and orders totaling more than
$3.7 BILLION IN DISGORGEMENT AND PENALTIES
In fiscal year 2017, the NEP completed over
2,870 EXAMINATIONS
an 18 percent increase over FY 2016
BROUGHT A DIVERSE MIX OF
754 ACTIONS 196 were “follow-on” proceedings seeking bars based on the outcome of commission actions or actions by criminal authorities or other regulators.
In fiscal year 2017, the NEP completed over
2,100 EXAMINATIONS
OF INVESTMENT ADVISERS
a 46 percent increase over FY 2016 The SEC’s examination coverage included 15 percent of all investment advisers, up from 8 percent just five years ago.
446 were “stand-alone” actions brought in federal court or as administrative proceedings.
112 were proceedings to deregister public companies—typically microcap—that were delinquent in their commission filings.
Sources: SEC 2018 National Exam Program Examination Priorities // SEC Division of Enforcement Annual Report 2017
MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT | 9
TRENDSREPORT REGULATION
The SEC Comes Full Circle with Retail Investor Protections What issues can we expect regulators to examine in today’s markets as they train their sights on retail advisers?
ROSEMARY FANELLI Managing Director & Chief Regulatory Strategist Duff & Phelps, LLC
I
n September 2017, the Securities and Exchange Commission revealed an important business and enforcement goal: the establishment of a retail strategy task force that would focus exclusively on the protection of individual investors—an effort that has, in many ways, brought the commission full circle.
Joseph Kennedy, the commission’s very first chairman, said it best. The “cards have been stacked too close to those who have power,” he said. “The federal government is the only power which can assure to the buyer that he is purchasing gold value and not gold bricks.” The current chairman, Jay Clayton, echoed Chairman Kennedy’s sentiments: “There is no room for someone who ruins somebody else’s life using the capital markets.” It is obvious that investment products and risks have changed significantly since Chairman Kennedy warned against the sale of “gold bricks.” So what issues can we expect regulators to examine in today’s markets as they train their sights on retail advisers? In an October 2017 speech, the commission’s co-chief of enforcement, Stephanie Avakian, offered a clue. “Issues in this space are extensive,” she said, “and often involve widespread incidents of misconduct, such as charging inadequately disclosed fees, and recommending and trading in wholly
10 | MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT
unsuitable strategies and products.” She identified the following additional areas of concern: ɒɒ
Steering customers to mutual fund shares with higher fees, when lower-fee shares of the same fund are available.
ɒɒ
Buying and holding products like inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for long-term investment, when they are generally used as a temporary downward hedge.
ɒɒ
Selling structured products that fail to fully and clearly disclose fees and other factors that can negatively impact returns.
ɒɒ
Churning and excessive trading that can generate large commissions at the expense of the investor.
Inadequate disclosure and suitability are hardly new offenses; why, then, does it seem that retail fraud is more common than ever? One reason, ironically, is
TRENDSREPORT REGULATION
the Dodd-Frank Act. It essentially directed the SEC to de-register all small (primarily retail) advisers and leave regulation to the states, where oversight and enforcement practices are inconsistent, unreliable and resource-constrained.
INADEQUATE DISCLOSURE AND SUITABILITY ARE HARDLY NEW OFFENSES; WHY, THEN, DOES IT SEEM THAT RETAIL FRAUD IS MORE COMMON THAN EVER? ONE REASON, IRONICALLY, IS THE DODD-FRANK ACT. But Dodd-Frank got it backward. Rather than requiring registration of all the largest advisers, Congress should have required oversight of all the smallest managers, since institutional investors are generally more capable of detecting fraud and mismanagement than are “Mr. & Mrs. 401(k),” as Chairman Clayton calls them.
of instilling confidence and fairness into the securities markets. As he signed, the president asked, “Now that I have signed this bill and it has become law, what kind of law will it be?” An aide replied, “It will be a good or bad bill, Mr. President, depending upon the men who administer it.” Prioritizing the protection of Main Street investors answers President Roosevelt’s question affirmatively: The bill creating the Securities and Exchange Commission is a very good one indeed—as measured by the men, and now women as well—who are administering it. Rosemary Fanelli is a managing director and chief regulatory affairs strategist for Compliance and Regulatory Consulting at Duff & Phelps. She joined Duff & Phelps in January 2016 as a result of Duff & Phelps’ acquisition of CounselWorks, a firm she cofounded and ran for almost 10 years.
In 1934, President Franklin Roosevelt signed into law a bill that vested a new agency with the responsibility
MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT | 11
TRENDSREPORT REGULATION
Should You Be Registered? What investors need to know
I CARRIE WISNIEWSKI President/Founder B/D Compliance Associates, Inc. and Bridge Capital Associates, Inc.
often hear intermediaries say, “I’m only offering unregistered securities, so I don’t have to be registered.” Wrong. Whether the securities are registered (’33 Act) has nothing to do with whether the individuals offering securities are required to be registered (’34 Act). “But I’m not offering securities; I only do M&A.” “My deals only involve one buyer and one seller.” That doesn’t change anything. “I’m not a broker. I’m a consultant.” The SEC and FINRA don’t care what title you give yourself. Go ahead and call yourself the Wizard of Oz. The first question is whether you are ever acting as an intermediary in the offering of securities. Activities involving capital raising (public or private) require registration. Even if you never raise capital, you may still be involved in a securities transaction. If a private company is sold to another private company and the stock on the balance sheet is changing hands, then you are a party to a securities transaction. Even in the M&A world, if an unsecured seller’s note is part of the transaction, that too is a security. The next issue is compensation. The SEC says that if you are assisting with a transaction involving securities and are paid based on transaction value then you are earning a commission on a securities transaction. Registration as a broker is required. Flat fees earned for advising do not require registration, but if you receive variable compensation without registration, you are running a risk. Even if you don’t initially expect a security will be involved, deal terms often change on short notice. There may be some relief provided under
12 | MIDDLE-MARKET TRENDS REPORT
the SEC’s M&A no-action letter (Jan. 31, 2014), but it may be difficult to prove the intermediary is acting under the exact fact pattern contained in the no-action letter. If the SEC or state determines after a closing that you should have been registered, the consequences are dire. You may not be paid upon a transaction closing because a party to the deal realizes you were not registered. Regulatory authorities may require rescission and disgorgement of profits. Fines may be levied, and cease-and-desist orders become public record. Such situations are low-hanging fruit for investor lawsuits. You have worked too long and hard to have your reputation ruined. There are deals where registration is not required. Asset sales are not securities transactions. However, more institutional investors will not look at any deal offered by unregistered intermediaries. The lack of registration becomes a credibility issue, yet no regulations have been violated. You have options to consider. You may choose to ignore the securities laws and operate as an unregistered intermediary. Or you may opt to form your own brokerdealer. The final option is to affiliate with an existing broker-dealer. There are pros and cons to each. Carrie Wisniewski is a former FINRA examiner and the founder of B/D Compliance Associates, Inc. and Bridge Capital Associates, Inc. (member FINRA, SIPC). You can reach her at carrie@bd-compliance.com.
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An Angelo, Gordon Company
$392.2M
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Joint Lead Arranger & Documentation Agent Add-On Acquisition
Sole Lead Arranger & Administrative Agent Recapitalization
Sole Lead Arranger & Administrative Agent Leveraged Buyout
Sole Lead Arranger & Administrative Agent Recapitalization & Add-On Acquisition
F EBRUARY 2018
JAN U ARY 2018
JANUARY 2018
JANUARY 2 0 1 8
$50M
Sole Lead Arranger & Administrative Agent Refinance
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Sole Lead Arranger & Administrative Agent Add-On Acquisition
Sole Lead Arranger & Administrative Agent Leveraged Buyout
DECEM BER 2017
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Sole Lead Arranger & Administrative Agent Leveraged Buyout
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NO VEM BER 2017
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SEPTEMBE R 2 0 1 7
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Sole Lead Arranger & Administrative Agent Refinance & Add-On Acquisition
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Administrative Agent Control Recapitalization
SEPT EM BE R 2017
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