M MILITARY SYSTEMS & Technology
IF CBRN IN UKRAINE IS A POSSIBILITY CAN IT BE DEFENDED AGAINST? Lutra is frequently asked what the issues are in Ukraine in terms of the fighting and in particular the use of CBRN. n simplified form this is what we tell people. The stress has to be on “simplified” because that is what it is. There are lots of throw away lines any of which can be picked apart but in essence it is the situation.
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There is not space here to cover the whole context but it is important to understand it. The press have covered the actual conduct of the fighting and it’s outcomes. We have got to a point where a number of stalemates are the result. The much vaunted Russian Armed Forces have been unable to complete Putin’s invasion plans in scope or timeframe. This does not mean though that its “game over”. There are probably several rolls of the dice to occur before that can be called and use of CBRN is one possible roll or series of rolls. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine caught the Western and Allied democracies off guard. Fuelled by decades of kowtowing to Russia’s view of itself the liberal left and academic thinkers failed to realise they were not in an intellectual argument but a stand up fight with a playground bully The soft left people in power, or advising them, caved in expecting that he, and his cronies, would back off.
their homeland. Secondly they have been fighting the Russians for 8 years and are well versed in their tactics. Thirdly Ukraine was advised and equipped by some pretty capable armies who had read the Russian pamphlets and understood their way of war and the technology needed. Finally the Russians have perhaps gone a bit soft and corrupt. From generals downwards Russian soldiers have seen their political master and his friends getting richer whilst the gain share has not reached them. Couple all this with a propensity to make them look 10 feet tall especially in their own eyes and issues are bound to arise.
However he wanted more. This is key to the person; he was brought up in a system where being a bully was encouraged and he was used to all those around him being bullies. The playground rules applied. The rules are the bully’s not the teachers. Unless the other boys and girls come together and fight back or the teachers impose discipline the situation deteriorates. Mix that with his failure to accept the demise of the power of the Soviet Union, and therefore his value system, and one sees the problem.
Anecdotally there are lots of reasons for it and we have all seen them in the press but a personal experience was listening to a retired German general explaining tank design. He spread his arms to their full extent and said “tank tracks need to be this wide”. Students on the course asked why that was, expecting some wonderful formula to be explained. He simply said “At this time of the year the mud is very deep in Ukraine!” Those who have read the books and talked to old soldiers who did the fighting know that if the only route is the road you have a problem; read about Arnhem. If there is lots of rubble infantry is king. Too much mud, too few roads and lots of rubble equals nowhere to go. Get stuck on a road unable to move and the result for a motivated, savvy, innovative defence is what the Americans call a target rich environment. The plan shuddered to a halt and Putin was left wondering what to do next.
The original plan was classic Soviet Military theory it would not have been out of place in West Germany. Advance on a broad front, aim to engage as many of the enemy as you can pin them down developing a line or two of main effort. Throw all your available forces down those lines to rapidly advance and achieve political and strategic objectives. So what went wrong? The Ukrainians have fought with courage, guile and determination to defend
Apart from using his remaining forces to crash and smash to a limited objective and then presenting failure as a victory or threaten more of the same conventional vandalism or engage in a war of attrition, all of which are unacceptable, about the only card he has got left is the use of CBRN. He has been making noises about special weapons aka Chemical Weapons or Tactical Nuclear warheads or Enhanced Radiation Munitions and then test launches his latest Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) all to ratchet up the uncertainty level. The threat and the message; stop supporting the kid I have decided to bash up. There is an Arab proverb, you cheated me once shame on you, you cheated me twice shame on me. One hopes the Western Democracies are not shamed. www.militarysystems-tech.com
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