International Affairs on the Edge Mag 3 by Mohamed Amine Belarbi

3rd Edition – March 2012

Turkey: A much-‐ needed Middle Eastern Power?

Hedge Funds: Crossroads of International Affairs and Money Malian Crisis: A golden chance for Algerian geopolitics How is Morocco shedding away foreign investments

Reading beyond the Iranian Pakistani Pipeline An economic Oil hungry giant satisfied, and a US presence deterred is a dream becoming reality for both Iran and China who aspire to become key regional players in the area. Iranian oil and gas capabilities have long been undermined, and the model developing now is strikingly similar to the case of Russian geopolitical development in the last decade.

Reforms or Continuity: Pope Francis says Amen to both "The difference between the US presidency and the Papacy is that, unlike in the US, the pope indeed exercises vast power and command over the policies of the Roman Catholic church, with not much constraints posed by the complex of cardinals and priests scattered inside the Holy See or throughout the globe. It is thus uncontestable that the election of a new head of church is not an aesthetic change but a true shift in the direction of the Christian Institution, a shift that will ultimately reflect the hopes, fears, beliefs and ideological biases of the new pope Francis." 1

Index • Reading beyond the Iranian Pakistani Pipeline

• Reforms or Continuity: Pope Francis says Amen to both

• Turkey : a much needed Middle Eastern Power ?

• Hedge Funds: Crossroads of International Affairs and Money

• Malian Crisis: A golden chance for Algerian geopolitics

• How is Morocco shedding away foreign investments

Reading beyond the Iranian Pakistani Pipeline

Oil & Gas Pipelines: Geopolitics in the Making The announcement of the construction of the 1600 Km Iranian-Pakistani gas pipeline didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t fail to create a true sensation in the world of politics, let alone in the corridors of the White House. In previous articles, I have talked endlessly about the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and specifically in the Baluchistan Region that includes Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, yet the theoretical rant on the rise of the rest mainly driven by Chinese geopolitical ambitions is now crystallizing with every tube that is being laid down between Iran and Pakistan. An unfaithful ally (Pakistan) collaborating with a declared enemy (Iran), all under the financing of the second world superpower (China) will not bring much thrust to the crippled foreign policy and strategic planning that the US is conducting overseas, and is sure to reverse the balance of power in the region. The Chinese backing of the pipeline is a clear act of defiance towards Washington, because it does not only redefines the rules of the game and establishes a new standard for approval of sensitive projects in the region, but also jeopardizes the effort of the US to tear down the Iranian economy, and bring to a halt the suspected military nuclear program the mullahs in Teheran are undertaking. Oil and gas have long been decisive assets in determining the outcome of geopolitical games and conflicts, and their grand power in forging alliances and cementing collaboration is what threatens the very strategic scheme the US has been trying to implement in AF-PAK region. Iran has not only managed to distance Afghanistan from the US through its economic and political support of Kabul, but is now more than ever closer to breaking the US Pakistani alliance via its economic support of the Pakistani economy through the establishment of the pipeline that will provision Pakistan with an additional 4000 Megawatts of electricity. A reliant Pakistan on Iranian gas provisioning does not only ensure that Pakistan will orbit closer in the circle of Teheran, but will also kill any potential complicity of Pakistan in a future military action against Iran. The Islamic Republic of Iran, though under severe sanctions and economic embargo, is playing geopolitics way better than what analysts in the White House would have predicted, and this reinforces the fallacy of economic sanctions on Oil economies, a fallacy that proved inefficient in Iraq and is now blatantly failing with Iran. In a region where economic models are Byzantine and ailing, Iranian oil is a commodity that can ensure economic growth for its Â

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neighbors through the fueling of major projects, and the provisioning of electric coverage especially in times where social unrest is prone to benign disturbances and popular dissatisfactions with the lack of governmentproduced public goods. The US has challenged the sovereignty of Pakistan more than once, a challenge that couldn’t be silenced through small financial grants especially that Islamabads’ cooperation with Washington on counter terrorism has long been unrewarded. With such opportunity, Iranian policy makers couldn’t miss the chance to terminate US-Pakistani relations and boost Teheran influence over its neighbor in a never-ending game of dominos. After the US intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan, both countries ended up getting closer to the Islamic Republic, not by choice but by necessity given the lack of long-term vision on the part of US leadership. Now after the series of drone strikes on Pakistani soil, the storming of Bin Laden’s compound in Abottabad and the recurrent attacks of US media and US political sphere on the Pakistani intelligence (corruption and collaboration with hostile forces), Pakistan cannot refuse the extended hand of Iran, an extended hand that will at least prove to be an economic catalyst for growth and development in the mostly rural and tribal country. If Iran is exploiting the US foreign policy breaches in Baluchistan, someone in the Far East is not missing on supporting the Iranian leadership in its anti imperialistic efforts to counter Uncle Sam. Beijing, keeping a low profile through the 90s and the first decade of the 21st century, is now moving on to upholding its imposed role of event shaper in Asia pacific, the Middle East and the Sub-Continent area, yet still without indulging in a direct confrontational policy with the US. China has been leading a new type of proxy warfare, a warfare not conducted with weapons and fighter jets, but with economic packages and financial loans. Well in line with Marxist “Economic Determinism”, Chinese officials are now realizing the true power of money in shaping global events and molding alliances, a lesson that has long been proven effective by the IMF and the World Bank loan programs. Financing the Gas pipeline between Pakistan and Iran with a $500 million package is not an economic signal Beijing is making, but a resonant geopolitical statement to the US that American blessing for major projects is now obsolete, and that Chinese interests in the region are as critical as those of the US. What we are witnessing is the formation of a complex network of economicbased loyalties that China is establishing throughout South East Asia region, with Iran as a primary broker. The IP Pipeline, if ever achieved, will initiate a spree of pipeline branching that will ultimately connect China to Iranian Gas and Oil fields, making it impossible for the US to ever consider military action against Teheran given the fact that such action will directly jeopardize Chinese interests in the country. An economic oil-hungry giant satisfied, and US presence deterred is a dream becoming reality for both Iran and China who aspire to become key regional players. Iranian oil and gas capabilities have long been undermined, and the model developing now is strikingly similar to

the case of Russian geopolitical development in the last decade. The Russian gas empire has only recovered from its Soviet collapse trauma after developing an extensive network of pipelines in Eastern and Western Europe with the help of business oligarchs, and what we are witnessing today in Iran is a similar scenario, with the only difference that the Russian oligarchs are now substituted with Chinese wealthy sovereign funds that are financing Iranian projects. The years to come will witness an extensive pipeline networking throughout the South East Asia region, a networking that will seal forever the US leave from the region, and will anchor the establishment of a new balance of powers where China and Iran are the key decision makers, one signing events with Oil and Gas, the other with piles of dollars and financial loans. The rise of the rest is finally overcoming the initial period of economic growth and reaching out to the geopolitical aspirations for influence and control. A new world order is shaping up, and the US seems oblivious to these new geopolitical equivalents to tectonic shifts.

Mohamed Amine Belarbi

Arab Institute for Youth Policy Making

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Reforms or Continuity: Pope Francis says Amen to both!

Roman Catholic Church on the crossroads of Continuity and Reform: With the announcement of the new head of the catholic church, now is the time to reflect on what are the signals the Vatican is giving to its followers and observers through the new appointment, and what are the policies that will be enacted in order to seal a new chapter in the long turbulent history of the 1.2 billion adepts strong borderless empire. The start of a new page in the life of the Catholic Church cannot be discussed without a quick review of the period preceding it, namely the numerous scandals that rocked the very foundations of the Vatican. From the sex scandals involving priests and cardinals, to the financial fraudulent transactions undertaken by the “Bank of God”, to the shady disclosures of the relationship between the Vatican and Mussolini, the Catholic Church has had its share of downturns that didn’t go without impacting its credibility and reputation. It is thus understandable that a radical change was a critical necessity to re-brand the Church, and that the best way to go about such venture is to ultimately change the very icon of it: the pope. This reminds the casual observer of a similar undertaking in the US, where the election of a new African American president with an appealing charisma to the minorities, the Muslims and the East in general helped reconcile the US with the international community, and allowed it to regain its attractiveness on the world stage. The difference between the US presidential election and the papal appointment is that, unlike in the US, the pope indeed exercises vast power and command over the policies of the Roman Catholic church, with not much constraints posed by the complex of cardinals and priests scattered inside the Holy See or throughout the globe. It is thus uncontestable that the election of a new head of church is not an aesthetic change but a true shift in the direction of the Christian Institution, a shift that will ultimately reflect the hopes, fears, beliefs and ideological biases of the new pope Francis. A quick look at the background of Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio already sends a wave of disappointment among the advocates of a 21st century liberal Church. The Argentinian cardinal’s position on same sex marriage for example leaves the growing numbers of Christian reformists with a bitter taste for the future of their God appointed government. In a letter dated June 2010, the cardinal doesn’t hide his resentment for the changing legal meaning of marriage, extended to include homosexual marriage, and makes it clear to his network of churches and priests in Argentina that fighting the popularization of

the LGBT rights ought to be a divine quest. The New York Times correctly pointed out the conservative nature of the Pope Francis in a recent article: “A doctrinal conservative, Francis has opposed liberation theology, abortion, gay marriage and the ordination of women, standing with his predecessor in holding largely traditional views.”[1] The background check, led by various journalists, does unveil more about the convictions and deeds of Pope Francis. Not only isn’t the new pope a great fan of homosexuals, but he isn’t either a fan of human rights delegation if we believe the rumors and the article Hugh O'Shaughnessy wrote in the Guardian in 2011. Pope Francis, according to the author, allegedly participated in hiding political prisoners victims of the “Dirty War” from a visiting commission of human rights. Although Pope Francis’s past might convey a gloomy picture, it is nonetheless irresponsible to make precipitated judgments on the likelihood of the path the new pope will drive the church into. The papacy will ultimately affect the stances of the new pope given the enormous responsibility it imposes on its leader, and given the growing liberal aspirations of the Church followers without whom the Holy See would be pointless, and note, go bankrupt. The decision of the conclave to elect Jorge Mario Bergoglio is indeed a reflection of the new image the Vatican is trying to paint to the world, and what better way to do that than to appoint the first non European, Latino pope in the history of the Roman Catholic church? Prior to the decision, the very resignation of the pope Benedict was a clear sign of the new currents unraveling in the Vatican, and his emphasis on “so many rapid changes” and “shaken” in his resignation speech streamlines the life crisis the Catholic Church is going through: “I am well aware that this ministry, due to its essential spiritual nature, must be carried out not only with words and deeds, but no less with prayer and suffering. However, in today’s world, subject to so many rapid changes and shaken by questions of deep relevance for the life of faith, in order to govern the bark of Saint Peter and proclaim the Gospel, both strength of mind and body are necessary, strength which in the last few months, has deteriorated in me to the extent that I have had to recognize my incapacity to adequately fulfill the ministry entrusted to me.”[2] It is thus unmistakable that the reformative prophecy Pope Benedict envisioned for his institution had to be enacted in order to preserve the “relevance” of the Vatican in today’s world. This relevance was sustained through the election of a Latin American cardinal, sending a strong message that the Church values its adepts in the South, which accounts for a great deal

of the Christendom. This point didn’t go unnoticed, and even Obama made sure to reiterate its relevance and importance in a congratulatory note to the pope: “As the first pope from the Americas, his selection also speaks to the strength and vitality of a region that is increasingly shaping our world, and alongside millions of Hispanic Americans, those of us in the United States share the joy of this historic day.”[3] The internationalism of the Roman Catholic Church reverberates a strong belief that the Vatican is now stretching its appeal beyond the European fortress, and is indeed enlarging its reach in a geographical spot where loyalty to the Catholic Institution was challenged by various evangelical churches. This not only boosts the influence of the Roman Catholic Church in Latin America, but also attends to its financial crisis that pushed its bank along Banco Ambrosiano to fall prey to the appeal of fraudulent activities linking it to money laundering and early financial entanglement with the Italian Fascist leader Mussolini. Another signal the pope Francis sends to the world is the cutting with financial elitism inside the walls of the Vatican. The speculated wealth of the Holy See, its banking activities, its corruption scandals and the excessive luxury and overspending charges against its personnel didn’t fail to create an outrage against the Catholic Church, an outrage that the Humble and modest Francis will surely silence given his background, and surely his name significance. All in all, the conservative approach of the pope Francis to sensitive matters, along with the grand reformative, if not strategic vision that his election bears to the outside observer sets the Roman Catholic Church in an interesting path of Continuity and reforms. Amen.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/world/europe/cardinals-elect-newpope.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 [2] http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b4d86704-743b-11e2-80a700144feabdc0.html [3] http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/world/europe/cardinals-elect-newpope.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Mohamed Amine Belarbi

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Turkey : A much needed Middle Eastern Power ? The first major victory of the Seljuk Turks over the forces of the declining Byzantine Empire at the battle of Manzikert on 26th August 1071, gave prominence to the Turkic peoples especially those associated with Osman the great Turkish Muslim warrior. These peoples later became known as the Ottoman Turks or Osmanlılar (Turkish for “those associated with Osman”). Like the battle of Gaugamela in 331BC, in which Alexander ‘the great’‘ the great dealt a crushing blow to the glorious Persian armies of Darius III, the Seljuk Turks or Ottomans in series of military triumphs, dealt the final blow to what was left of Emperor Constantine’s empire in the levant in the subjugation of Constatinople by Mehmed II in 1453. The conversion of the Hagia Sophia (the capitol of orthodox Christianity and the seat of the Patriach of Constatinople) an architectural master piece of Athemios of Tralles and Isodorus of Miletus by the victorious Ottomans to a mosque emphatically announced the rise of another Islamic power after the decline of the glorious age of the Arab Caliphs and Caliphates. The Ottomans (a non-Arab Muslim people) struck a chord different to the rulership style of their spiritual Arab brethren (the originators of Islam) in that, they sought a blend between the Orient and Occident. This was clearly emphasized in the administration of Sultan Mehmed II the Conqueror (14321481) to Süleyman I, The Magnificent (1494-1566), Sultan of the Ottoman Empire (1520-1566), during whose reign the empire reached its zenith of power and splendour. During his reign, the Ottomans rocked the gates of Vienna----the seat of the Hapsburgs and lords of the Holy Roman empire. At a moment when the Arabs lacked natural leadership, the Ottomans (Spiritual Bethren of the majority Arab Muslim middle east), proved a congruous force in bringing the middle east at par with advances of the ever seeking dominant European powers. The Ottomans were able to effectively administer their heterogenous religious and ethnic populations with minimal issues of tensions among the various subjugated peoples. A PATH TO DECLINE In signing the treaty of Karlowitz in 1699, the Ottoman Empire began to tread the path of a steady decline and non-relevance in international politics; and by the end the first world war in 1918, the Ottoman empire was in ruins! All subjugated peoples of the empire had gotten their agitation for independence and Constatinople (the Seat of Ottoman power) was under Allied (British, French and U.S) occupation. At the moment of Ottoman desperation, a vanguard for Turkic liberation arose in Mustafa Kemal who in his nationalistic fervour revoked the Treaty of Sèvres and pushed the Allied occupation force out of Constatinople. Abolishing what

was left in the 623 year rule of the Ottoman Sultanate in deposition of Mehmed IV Vhadettin, Turkey became a republic on November 1, 1922. Mustafa Kemal, later known as Ataturk (Father of the Turks) instituted revolutionary reforms in his new found republic among which are: • The abolishment of the Sultanate and Caliphate (making Turkey a republic), • The ban on the wearing of Islamic dress in public (the fez cap and the hijab) • The separation of religion from state. • The Latinization of the alphabetical characters used in writing the Turkish language—a departure from the use of Arabic alphabetical characters. He also de-Arabized the Turkish language. • The introduction of European styled canonical law for governance. Ever since then, Turkey began a pro-western path and it was no surprise when Turkey joined the western military alliance (NATO) in 1952; becoming a buffer against Soviet expansion in the Levant during the height of the cold war. Thus, Turkey has been a darling to both the western powers and its Arab and Muslim neighbours in its unique relationship with both the middle orient and the occident. No wonder Turkey (a Muslim nation) has diplomatic relations with Israel (an unwanted entity to most Arabs) to the tune of joint military cooperations. From its fall after the Second World War, the population of Anatolia has witnessed a steady rise in Muslim population while the traditional Christian population has declined. Persecuted Muslim populations of the Caucasus found a welcoming home in Turkey and thus the Muslim population of Turkey has swelled from over 50% in the early 1900’s to 99%. Despite Turkish attempts in joining the European Union after series of westernization policies, Turkish membership has been declined in reminisce of its religious significance as a Muslim majority nation. This may not be seen as a set back for Turkish cause as she needs to identify her role as a bridge between the Levant and the Occident. Whilst this role was well administered by the defunct Ottoman empire in its glory days, mordern day Turkey can draw an inspiration from its glorious Ottoman past. Her ability to chide Israel and still maintain diplomatic sanity with the Jewish state, walk arm in arms with the Western powers and still maintain spiritual communion with its Arab muslim neigbours most of whom practice Sunni Islam (the orthodox form of Islam) does lends a credence to any purported form of Turkish dominance of levantine politics. Whilst Egypt, Iraq, and Syria have tried and failed trump the Arab and Muslim cause in the middle east and Iran (a majority Shiite nation) not seen as a credible option by most Sunni Arab Muslims, Turkey provides a worthy leadership.

At a time when western powers are wary of military intervention in the Middle East in the face of inconclusive battles and withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan, there’s a vacuum for a Muslim leadership in the Middle East as the Arab league lacks clear leadership vigour in tackling the unrest in the Middle East. As the Syrian conflict drags unending with countless hundreds of thousands of civilian causalities and the UN security council powers bickering their interests rather than resolve the quagmire, the initiative beckons on Turkey to front the leadership of the Muslim middle east!

Samson Faboye

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Hedge Funds: A crossroad for international affairs and money One would hardly perceive politics as a source of income outside the realm of governmental agencies or consultancy firms, yet a great deal of wealth is being generated by an unorthodox type of politician: politicians who haven’t had to integrate parliament to make enough money for a decent living and beyond. As we sit tight in our desks, contemplating the course of events the world has sailed on or the dynamics geopolitics has imposed on the international chessboard, many are turning history not into a set of lines inscribed in encyclopedias and articles, but into cheques with up to 9 figures. While politics might seem as an end in itself for standard politicians, for such individuals it turns out to be a means by which to generate cash without necessarily contributing to shaping the policies or decisions usually upheld with triumph by congressmen and statesmen. Nor do these people abide by the virtues and precepts of theorists. Not concerned with the philosophical implications of communism, expressing disdain for the ethical controversies raised by capitalism, they see and read politics in the most convenient ways: the way of making money regardless of the nature of a political system. If the political tide turns bright, they invest long, while if it darkens and announces sour shortcomings, they sell short: Moral of the story, they make money! These people, with a deep appreciation for analysis and great disdain for practice, are the men and women populating the numerous hedge funds proliferating throughout the globe. Traders, not necessarily overlooking the Bull from their ivory towers in Wall Street, have grown to display a strong affinity for international affairs and world dynamics, and understand the power of geopolitics and Realpolitik in generating wealth without great deal of debate or heated conversations. While the policy makers struggle to pass bills or promote certain military agendas in order to earn their wages, it has now become possible to take the ready product of such political debates and analyze its implications worldwide in order, after a quick call to your broker, to make some cash flow into your account. Quick example: with the Russian invasion of Georgia a couple of years ago, one could look up the geography of the country and easily notice the pipeline going through its borders, thus realizing that the implications of the war would be disastrous for the pipeline in terms of output and net delivery. A trader resumes such analysis in a quick short selling of the shares of the Oil and Gas companies benefiting from the pipeline, therefore making money once BP’s

shares soar on the stock market. The availability of hedge funds, their cumulative ceiling of operations hovering around the $2.5 trillion, their ability to outperform the market and their various level of operations now allows many to integrate these financial institutions that are still widely underrated, and to put at use one’s appreciation of politics, business and international affairs. The trend now is in favor of exploiting political intelligence through consultancy firms; yet as the usage of singled trusted firms makes it hard to be unique in choosing the right investments to make for hedge funds, it is projected to see funds hiring their own political analysts or political evaluation departments in order to avoid investing like everyone else. Daniel Celeghin, a partner with the advisory firm Casey Quirk in the US, argues that the world’s top 30 hedge funds will probably all be consulting toptier political experts, whether it is former policy professionals or high-profile government figures. The combination of politics and economics is widely seen as an academic choice meant to be split on the edge of professional tracks, yet today it is possible and profitable to opt for something beyond sole economic or political career path, it is possible to marry both and still make more money than previously hoped for. The power of knowledge and foresight is an invaluable commodity on the trading floor, and being able to speculate on the course of events in far away lands based on a great understanding of international affairs and politics is an asset most hedge funds look crazily for. A decade ago, Political science was labeled an academic choice for theorists and students without a clear vision for their future professional involvement. The 9/11 attacks were a turning point in the perception of politics in the youth environment given the fact that international affairs and foreign political systems acquired ideological and physical reach in the heart of the Western World. The rush for PoliSci set the clock for a new wave of diplomats, ambassadors and intelligence officers with an acute knowledge of the various cultural, political, religious and social factors that shape the public opinion and political systems in Eastern nations. We are now living the 3rd revival of politics and international relations, a revival strengthened by the realization that politics and international affairs today can generate the most cherished commodity ever: profit! Traders are no longer required to be astute in math and economics, but are demanded to absorb abundant knowledge of geopolitics and international relations in order to know how Iran missile tests affect oil prices, or how “Fiscal Cliff aversion” spending cuts in the military budget drive down the shares of Lockheed Martin.

It is an ever growing joy to see politics adapting to the tides of the markets, and to witness the evolution of international relations from a set of factors affecting bilateral treaties taught in university, to a critical asset used to place trades in the stock market and foresee financial implications of political decisions, or indecisions. Most of all, it is a confirmation that the rigid politics we are brought to believe in is simply the tip of an iceberg widely undiscovered, and that the confinements of governmental policy making are not the only representation of politics, but rather the apparent limitations of a system of thought that expands beyond the government and bears practicality in virtually all field of human interactions and transactions.

Mohamed Amine Belarbi

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Malian Crisis: A golden chance for Algerian geopolitics With the situation in Mali progressing slowly towards a certain resolution that will be dictated by French military might, it becomes clear that what ought to be pondered is no longer the potential defeat or success of the intervention in Northern part of the country, but rather the future stakes that each regional and international player will bring back home. While French presence has been empowered more than ever by a loyal and grateful Malian government, Algeria on the other hand is still on the crossroads of defining its future role in Mali. The Malian stability cannot in any way be guaranteed by a short term military intervention, and the French support of today may no longer be an option given the growing reluctance of the public opinion to afford another burden on the national economy, or to indulge in another armed conflict. The guarantor of Malian stability will with no doubt be Algeria, the regional player that has long been at the vanguard of anti terrorism in the Sahel region. With such responsibility comes a great deal of advantage, an advantage that Algiers knows well can be exploited to enhance its influence and reach not only in the Sahel, but also in the Sub-Saharan region all while accommodating French interests. What the Malian crisis has shown is that the Malian military are far from being fully equipped to handle the challenges posed by domestic threats. The inability of the central government to provide security and stability throughout the vast territory accounts for a blatant lack of personnel and logistics among police forces and military troops. On the other hand, Algeria, the oil rich neighbor “most likely was the biggest military spender in Africa in 2009 and is the world’s ninth largest importer of weapons”. Moreover, Algeria’s military budget accounted this year for 10.3 Billion $ worth of equipment to modernize the military and boost security capabilities.[1] Instead of letting French presence shape the regional politics and military agendas in Mali, Algeria is far more concerned with dictating terms on its borders through influencing its neighbor by the provisioning of support and military assistance. The French presence in Mali might seem like a much welcomed initiative, yet as the urgency of the security threats in Mali fades down, the French troops and intrusion will turn into a target of criticism, speculation and even confrontation given the social, religious and political environment surrounding the region’s state of affairs. In order to enforce its agenda on Malian soil, Algeria will have to distance Paris and Bamako, creating an ideological rift that will make future support of Bamako relevant to the absurd. The way to go about such maneuver is to play the imperialism card, both on a domestic level and on a regional one.

Algerian diplomacy ought to conduct extensive talks with Malian authorities in order to warn them from a potential attempt by Paris to set foot in the region for exploitation purposes. As Maliâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s resources are being slowly tapped into, and as the revenue from gold mining reaches new records due to the financial setbacks in the EU economy, it becomes a plausible theory that French presence is motivated by resources agreements and predatory agendas, a theory Algerians know all too well how to shape given the years of antagonistic politics they engaged Paris in. The currency French authorities have on the table is military coverage and security provision, a currency quite affordable in Algerian soil. Thus, using a regional security umbrella pioneered by Algerian troops will uproot any need for French presence. Algeria has multiple incentives to engage in such scheme, from geopolitical ambitions for expansion and influence, to security advantages since it will have the ability to go after AQMI deep in Sahel soil. On another note, Algeria has all to win from establishing itself fiercely in the Sahel due to the increasing popularity of Touareg dissidences. Given the precarious nature of ethnical distribution in Algeria, it is all too probable that revolts and proclaimed partial independence in the Sahel might fuel similar ambitions in Algeria, a prospect that the central government in Algiers has been combatting for decades now. A greater presence in the Sahel using Mali as a springboard will allow greater monitoring of rebellious movements and quicker responses to crisis before they extend to proportions that are threatening Algerian national security in its military and social aspects. Finally, establishing itself as the primary player in the Sahel, Algeria gains de facto the role of the point contact in any initiatives including western interaction with the Sahel and Sub Saharan Africa. This gives any nation great leverage in shaping and dictating terms on the table of negotiations, in influencing the flow of trade and natural resources exploitation and in gaining benefits from future economic incursions by the US, EU or China in the rich mineral market of the Sahel.

[1] Algeria Increasing Military Spending, Defence Web, http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2 8518&Itemid=118Mohamed Amine Belarbi

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How is Morocco shedding away foreign investments As I landed a couple of hours ago in Casablanca coming from Dubai, I couldn't help but have some reflexions on the horrid customer service provided in the Moroccan airport. Coming across an exasperated businessman from Bangladesh, I realized that such lack of consideration for the customer is not only a failure to comply with the rules of decency every airport ought to implement, but also a grave attack on potential foreign investments that are a crucial component for recovery in the current shaky economic conditions... How is Morocco shedding away foreign Investments In these times of financial and economic uncertainties, the world is striving to power boost growth and encourage investments in order to cut loose the ongoing nightmares of the ailing banking system and its repercussions on the world finance. Yet, as these efforts to encourage a quick recovery are spreading, and indeed populating most of world leaders speeches and TV apparitions, one country is lacking behind: Morocco. Although most observers might claim otherwise, Moroccoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s approach and methodology in restructuring its economy and lifting the purchase power of its citizen is all but comprehensive and sound. The gross mistake the Moroccan authorities have been conducting throughout the years, and more acutely now, is that the government tries to induce a top down growth through encouraging multibillion dollars investments instead of building a strong investment base powered by the middle class and small businesses. The last visit of the king to the Gulf countries, a recurrent theatrical play where the monarchy squeezes billions of dollars from the Gulf royalties whenever the domestic economics are not adding up, is an astounding example of such state practice of top down investment. Channeling investments and projects by Gulf corporations to Morocco might be of short-term benefits since it creates direct jobs in construction or tourism; yet, most of these foreign ventures end up frozen due to the absence of consumers of such products, and deficiency of completive small businesses that can create the necessary environment for a full investment to operate. What I mean by completive small businesses are those enterprises that offer services and products that a Hotel cannot offer, as simple as that. Luxurious resorts and Hotels are a product locals cannot afford, a fact not hard to miss on since the market these investments target are foreign. This poses the question: will a businessman, celebrities or highincome consumers visit Morocco on the sole basis of staying in a luxurious hotel? What draws outsiders are unique travel experiences that are prosperous for them to initiate potential ventures, that is to say a compelling cultural setting, the existence of advantageous telecommunication services and infrastructure, the flourishing of small businesses that offer skilled technicians and resources and the presence of quality transportation firms. Thus begging for Gulf investments without laying the foundations for these Â

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very ventures to thrive is pouring water on the sand. A state that cannot cope with rainfalls, rising criminality, poor consumer purchase power, degrading middle class and fiscal irregularities and fraud is far from succeeding in getting the economic house back in order through a couple of foreign investors.

Another flaw in Moroccan approach to economic growth is the discrepancy in treatments offered to foreign investors. While western investors are treated with the greatest forms of respect and privilege, Asian entrepreneurs are disregarded as casual travelers who have to pass through the hardships and tortuous airline and airports process, a process that the Moroccan airports made the worst possible in any sovereign nation. Lost luggage, hours in line for the passport checks, empty cubicles meant to be filed by airport officers and no regards for customer service… many of the realities of Moroccan airports that would push away any investor from thinking about traveling to Morocco. These are the basic services that a state should prioritize if it seriously considers drawing foreign cash to the mainland. Successful investment strategies are those that care about the small businesses, encourage entrepreneurship and facilitate foreign knowledge and expertise flow to the domestic market. If a nation cannot offer decent treatment for travelers and outsiders going through its airport –travelers who after all are walking wallets that can be tapped into -, then there is no premise for talking about economic recovery through foreign investments. It is saddening to see on one hand great nations deploy resources, efforts and time to empower small businesses as the ultimate path to recovery, and on the other hand witnessing one’s country waste money in lobbying and embassy held dinners to attract investments that will not impact the domestic economic landscape, because the state didn’t care enough to build a favorable base for these investments to flourish upon. The true change starts from within, not through aesthetic appliances to hide inherent flaws in the domestic scene, thus if Morocco is to ever join in the global effort to regenerate wealth and growth, it should start by permitting small businesses -domestic and foreign- to prosper, not by helping them financially, but simply through fulfilling the tasks every state is elected to accomplish in the first place. Mohamed Amine Belarbi

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