Post-Revolutionary Egypt What’s Next ?
Mohamed Amine Belarbi
Post-revolutionary Egypt: What’s next? Almost a month has passed since the crowning of Mursi as President of Egypt after a runoff election which put the whole country of not the world on a standstill. With a nation deeply divided over the nature of the presidential candidates and their respective agenda, the victory of the Muslim brotherhood is far from being celebrated as an achievement, and rather mentioned as an inevitable destiny the presidential elections put forward before the sealed box container could unveil their secret ballots. Now that the results are known and the president has been sworn to office, the future of Egypt remains as uncertain as during the midst of the revolution. With remains of the old regime being, as custom goes, fiercely pointed as conspirators behind any vice the country suffers and every tragedy the public opinion hears of, and a zealous base of supporters of Ahmed Shafiq who see stability as key component of the country’s daily life, a stability threatened by a potential confrontation between the Muslim brotherhood and the Supreme Council of Armed Forces. Regardless of the fuss raised about the secret agendas and the hidden hands, one thing remains certain: Egypt is in downwards financial, social and political slide, and that is far from being an unseen and dubious course of events. The President, in a challenge not only to prove himself a worthy figure, but in a confrontation as well that will shape the future of the Political Islamism across the MENA region, can only thrive for a solid consolidation of his victory through the accomplishment of highly valued successes internationally, and most importantly on the domestic arena. I will develop a set of arguments and ideas about the future decisions that ought to be taken in the fields of economics, politics, military and religion in order to insure a peaceful transition towards democracy for a nation that spilled enough blood to buy its dignity and prosperity back from decades of tyranny. Economy: Being the 27th greatest economy with a GDP flirting with the 530 Billion $ is something to be proud of, yet endangering the nation’s wealth and input has become the key concern for the Egyptian citizen, blaming the financial collateral damages of the revolution for the downwards spiral the nation has been experiencing on the casual streets as well as on the stock market. The spilled billions of $, along with the damaged industries and slowed production has merged to establish an unsustainable financial situation that puts at risk the political credibility of the new leadership and questions the very necessity of the revolution in the first place. Looking back at the nature of the country, its past focal industries and the professional sector its universities produces, one can lay a working scheme for how the nation ought to operate its economy in order to boost its GDP and consolidate its revolution with a flourishing democracy propelled by promising financial records. 1. The Nile: Aiming at economic development cannot acquire its credibility unless the fuel to power plants, to fire machines and to melt iron can be secured. Providing electricity for the hungry fuel-consuming
industries must be a priority for chief economic and financial advisors for the new leadership, and doing so won’t need the implementation of the American or Chinese natural resources exploitation schemes. (Neither American military driven quest for oil nor Chinese diplomatic venture in African dictatorship controlled markets). What nurtured the civilization of the great pharaohs and what witnessed the royal naval processions of ancient monarchs is well endowed to provide the Egyptian economy with the necessary blood to water its veins. The mere figure of 12%1 is the amount of electricity produced by the Dams scattered across the Nile in the Egyptian soil, and given the political turmoil on its southern borders, Egypt could easily increase the figure to new records. The 1959 Nile Waters treaty entitles Egypt to 82% of the water volume, thus restricting the access of Cairo to the full capacity of the river’s potential electrical output. The plans of the former Egyptian regime to increase its number of Dams along the river have been met with furious discontent from the southern neighbors spanning from Sudan to Ethiopia. The political conditions of Sudan and Ethiopia now are a domestic burden prone to be exploited by an awaking power in the North. Sudan, now divided into two countries since the independence of the south, is not in a position to sustain its internal politics and economics due the loss of the major oil reserves and to the cracking of its domestic affairs between political unrest and social revolts. Egypt, through the offering of economic and diplomatic assistance to Khartoum in its struggle with Southern Sudan could manage easily to turn the currency of such business into Sudan’s acquiescence to the ventures of Cairo in the Nile resources. Khartoum is now draining in its stockpiled petro-dollars which are everything but eternal, and the current socio-economic conditions warns of an imminent drought of the nation’s monetary reserves. With nothing to sustain the efforts of war and diplomatic confrontation with Juba, Sudan will see the extended hand of Egypt as a divine intervention which ought to be celebrated and greeted by any necessary compromises and sacrifices. A full access to the Nile, even with Khartoum consent and Juba’s acquiescence due to its abundant oil reserves and thus lack of interest in Hydro-electric power wouldn’t be possible without Ethiopia’s approval. This challenge could be overcome by coupling a strategy of intensifying trade relations and Egyptian expertise exports to Addis Ababa to help develop the inexistent infrastructure and implement industries meant to strengthen the fastest growing non-oil-dependent African economy between 2007 and 20082 (with what it brings of industrialization ties to Cairo and thus relative dependence on it), and through a stronger US-Egyptian cooperation to counter Chinese intrusion in Ethiopian market since it would pose a serious threat to the water resources which Chinese economic tentacles in Africa avidly consumes. Such strategy, if put in place could expand Egyptian access to the Nile water over its prescribed shares, granting greater hydro-electric capacity and wider civilian and industrial access to the river’s waters, thus empowering furthermore the Egyptian economy and sustaining its supplies of fuel through a consolidated electrical generation through the Nile waters. 2. Never too late: industrialization, services and technology Egypt, since the major period of industrialization under the Nasser administration, fell back on the international arena to a mere import oriented economy relying for its most on foreign production to 1 2
Egypt Energy Issue http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/energy-issues/egypt/index.shtml "Ethiopia sees Africa's fastest growth". Afrol.com. http://www.afrol.com/articles/28991
fulfill its market’s needs. Nowadays, after a toppled regime and a genuine declared war against corruption and centralization, the Egyptian economy is ready to engage once more in the competitive sector of major industries spanning from the petrochemical sector to the production and assembly of automobiles and military weapons. The educational system in Egypt is one which is acknowledged for its quality and excellence, a success mostly witnessed through top class intellectuals and engineers whom Egypt exports throughout the world. One would doubt the necessity and indeed the potential attributes of an imminent industrialization in Egypt, especially in a world which industrial wheel has been rotating since the 19th century, but the current situation in the Middle East and especially the Gulf attests of a different reality. Acetex, Corporation has entered a newly formed joint venture to build a US 1 Billion $ plant in Jubail Industrial City in Saudi Arabia3, and this comes after Qatar built the biggest gas-to-liquid plant at the grand pleasure of the Qatari Emir. The region is witnessing a fervent ascension to major industrialization, and it is a favorable time for Egypt to enroll in such efforts. Whether through implementing gas and petroleum refinery plants in joint ventures with the gulf countries as did Tunisia along Qatar in a 2 Billion 2$ Investment4 (Especially that the oil and gas fields in Egypt are poorly exploited through an old and inefficient exploitation and delivery infrastructure), or be it through the privatization of the state owned plants in order to reform and improve the soviet dated firms and production lines to the requirements of the 21st century. Another aspect of the Egyptian economy is its large agricultural activities which account for 13.5% of the GDP. Looking back at the wealthy fields across the Nile strikes the viewer immediately: the scene never exceeds the view of poor installations, few human resources and archaic tools of production. Nations with far smaller land mass whose workforce in the agricultural sector is dwarfed by that of Egypt still manages to have a colossal input in the world market. What is needed is indeed a reform and improvement of the mean of productions in Egypt, a qualification of the workforce and the introduction of technology, genetic selection and mass production in the agricultural fields. This will boost not only the productivity, but will as well expand the usable land mass in the vast desertic fields as what is been done in Saudi Arabia and co. Egypt is rich in resources, and the abundant oil, gas, iron, manganese, limestone or phosphates are here to further confirm it. The human resources to exploit these natural riches are as well in excess, so what is needed is a true political willingness to advance the economic competitively of Egypt instead of using induces poverty and illiteracy as political tools to enslave the people as has been done during the Mubarak Era. Furthermore, the prospects of monetary rehabilitation are appealing, and the necessity for Egypt to uphold thus far a diplomatic and strategic foreign policy supportive of the US is more than encouraged in order to secure the American Billions of dollars’ worth of aid. This, coupled with an up to market prices trade with Israel over the oil exports would enrich the state monetary reserves of another dozen of billions $. Finally, the alignment of Egypt with the West and the gulf countries in their effort to ignite a war against Iran will inevitably poor on the Egyptian reserves juicy banknotes
3 4
http://www.siteselection.com/ssinsider/snapshot/sf040419.htm http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE84E09Z20120515
issued by the petro-dollar rich and grateful gulf nations for the Egyptian efforts to sustain “peace and stability” to the region. An enhanced industrialization, a fierce war on corruption and a rehabilitation of the monetary system and relief of the aggregating debts is to engage Egypt in the path of economic competitiveness and major industrial production, a deeply needed pathway where the economic survival of the nation ultimately rests. Military: One thing worth noting, the Egyptian military is everything but a defense body preoccupied with the nations’ security and protection. The Supreme council of the armed forces is operating not only as a nation’s arms bearer, but indulges in day to day operations related to real estate, tourism, business transactions and political follies. "It's a business conglomerate, like General Electric," said Robert Springborg, professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, referring to the Egyptian military. "It's represented in virtually every sector of the economy."5 In a country where a transition from military to civilian rule has just taken place, the nostalgia for power remains a driving force for decrees, actions and conspiracies led by the SCAF generals. What one ought to understand is that non-confrontational diplomacy is not enough in the case of Egypt, alienating the SCAF the way the Turkish Islamists alienated the Ataturk military officials is the only way to regain control over state affairs and domestic legislations. It is important and crucial for president Mursi to realize the necessity to station the military back into their right position, and failing to do so will have deep impacts on the national security of the nation and on its economic performances. On one hand, the military in Egypt, as asserted by the Global Research Center for Research on Globalization, have been a staunch adversary of free market and liberal transactions. With a tight grip on different industrial sectors, the Scaf advocate and advance state ownership over the private sector in order to secure the privileges and interests they cultivate through state owned corporations. It goes without mentioning that without liberal policies and a more market oriented economic strategy, the Egyptian economy will suffocate under the pressure of foreign competitiveness and services. On the other hand, the current conditions of the military are worrying. The weaponry and logistical acquisitions are in a poor condition, and the readiness of the Egyptian troops is far from meeting the necessary requirements in case of conflict escalation. The recent incidents spanning along the Egyptian border have pinpointed to a lack of management of the territorial security, and recurrent breaches by smugglers, fighters or immigrants could jeopardize the safety of Egypt, especially in instances of attacks against Zionist troops or rocket firings which would ultimately lead to a retaliation Egypt is far from being able to support and legitimize. Looking back at a neighboring country, Turkey, one can draw lessons on how to assert civilian state leadership and overturn military arrogance and inference in domestic legislations: Sledgehammer!
5
Global Research, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23211
Sledgehammer conspiracy was the widely mediatized set of trials that involved top Turkish military, with the majority of the chief secular generals convicted for attempts to lead a military coup and seize power from the AK civilian government. Whether real or simply an Islamist masterminded scheme to get rid of the trouble makers who opposed the non-secular civilian leadership, the AK party managed to drag top officials to the courts and induced many to resign promptly from their functions. A similar Sledgehammer scenario could easily be implemented in the current conditions, and a quick look at the charges held against the Turkish military allows us to draw clear similarities: “It reportedly involved plans to bomb mosques and provoke tensions with Greece, in order to spark political chaos and justify a military takeover“6 In a country where the shadowy decades of military rule still resonates in people’s minds, and where the Supreme Council of Armed Forces is widely pointed as culpable and accomplice in the mass unrest unraveling in Egypt, holding formal accusations against the military will not only prove to be legally founded, but will as well secure the approval of the public opinion. The military establishment in Egypt is corrupt on different levels, and a massive rehabilitation of the institutions is a prerogative the new Egyptian government ought to prioritize. A top down cleansing of the military should set the priorities of the presidential agenda since the political motives in the military are comprised to the leading elite. It is time to ensure the safety of the nation both domestically and abroad through a strong military institution, independent and non-aligned with national political currents, a military transparent and sophisticated with high levels of alertness and readiness at all times. Partnerships ought to be explored with regional allies, and Turkey is a well-developed nation with highly skilled and well equipped army contingents. An important notion in the military institution is armament. Armament sets forth two important aspects: technology advance and price competitiveness. These two attributes are well covered by the Turkish state. As a leading arm exporter (leading armament manufacturers corporations ASELSAN, Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation MKEK, Turkish Aerospace Industries TAI), a world top military spender (15th),a NATO member and a roaming economy with budget surpluses, Turkey is the perfect ally to seek in Egypt’s military restructuration. It goes without saying that the political and ideological likeliness of the two governments will furthermore facilitate any potential alliance and military collaboration between the two states. Politics & Religion: One would hardly conceive consulting a chapter on state reforms without having separate rooms for religious and political analysis and recommendations, yet with an elected president formed and nurtured under the auspice of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt, it is becoming harder to distinguish between political agendas and religious commandments even though glorious empires and successful state management has once been led by fervent prophets and religious apostles.
6
Turkey: Military chiefs resign en masse, BBC website, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14346325
Political Islamism nowadays has bridged the divide between state management and religious theology, and the Muslim brotherhood fashion has embodied such philosophy following the recommendations of its founder AlBanna. A legacy which, though inspired revolutions and ignited incidents, is still at the center of interrogation by both the public opinion and the centers of powers worldwide. Far from being compared to the Turkish Gullen movement who advances an Islamic agenda through education and business, the Muslim brotherhood embraces a full political approach directed towards the control of key positions inside the government, thus implementing its vision through state organs. This being said, the mischievous game of politics can easily put the current government under stress and recurrent test, especially that the social, religious and geographical features of Egypt allow malicious schemes to take effect without much planning. Whether a plot to blow up a church, or a furtive attack on border patrols near the Rafah crossing point, the blames of state mismanagement or blind and reckless compassion with Hamas are common currency in Pharaoh’s land, a currency too easily manipulated by the political lack of regulation. The Egyptian government needs to act quickly and efficiently to reverse the power flow and to assert the will of the public opinion as main source of legislation instead of induced and forced actions prompted by the Military council and allies of the former regime. This can be achieved through greater representation, active engagement of the civil society and formation of key political alliances. The greater representation has already been upheld by president Mursi when nominating Coptic Christians in key positions in the government, yet the increase of the female representatives in the government has not been as much secured. Nominating females for senior posts in the state will not only draw support and appreciation from the public opinion, but will also clear the doubts about the approach of the Muslim brotherhood indoctrinated president about women rights and representation. Moreover, representation ought not only to give justice to women, but also to the generation Y without which a revolution could not proceed. The inclusion of the young individuals in the ministerial cabinet and state offices is a priority and an ethical imperative to pay tribute to the effort of the grassroots youth movements who came to the streets and scarified lives and wealth for the nation’s welfare. With a 71% literacy rate and a an almost 63% of population aged 15-647, the young generation is not only abundant, but is also educated and well-endowed to uphold responsibilities in the political spheres of the country. Relevant fields of state legislations cannot be competitive, visionary and innovative unless under the guidance of a young official. Such fields comprise the ministries of new technologies and higher education and scientific research. On another note, political alliances are crucial for healthy political performances both due to its effectiveness in channeling efforts towards consensual goals and preventing political confrontation which undermines state efforts in most cases. The political offspring of the Muslim Brotherhood, the freedom and justice party, ought not to indulge in ideological quarrels with the secular and liberal movement in order not to alienate itself amid a growing critical base in the Egyptian street. The alliances can be policies-specific and thus would neither endanger the ideological integrity nor identity of the Muslim Brotherhood representatives. The policies pertinent to the nations’ economy, for example, can be drafted in coordination with the liberal movement which abides by the market 7
The CIA World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html
oriented principle of economy. Their inclusion in the process of establishing a liberal, market oriented vision for Egypt will indeed strengthen the image of the current government as an inclusive institution meant to represent the entire ideological and political spectrum in an effort to incrust a political democratic offset to the leading Freedom and Justice party. Finally, sound state management in a democratic society ought to empower the civil society and uphold it as a crucial partner in elaborating the domestic policies. The civil society in Egypt has proven to be an illuminated establishment with unequal human resources, yet the attention required to recognize the work of the numerous associations and equip them with the necessary financial and logistical needs has been overlooked. Joining the different NGOs in state building is not only a matter of democratic exertion but is a point pertinent to national security concerns. Several NGOs in Egyptian and foreign territory acquire funding and expertise from foreign government to promote an agenda which sometimes threatens Egyptian interests. Given the political circumstances which put Egypt on a sensitive position in the world chess board, and the disturbances which populate the relationship between Egypt and several governments amongst is Israel, allowing the civil society to be infiltrated by foreign agendas because of certain political alignments or plain negligence is a fatal error which endangers the homeland security at the highest levels. This being said, these set of recommendations and opinions are to be observed and implemented, and timing in state management is a crucial feature which alone can determine whether a government can indeed succeed or fail dramatically regardless of the nature of its policies. Egypt is in a historical turnout, and recalling the losses in human and financial resources makes it clear that enough has been suffered and scarified, and time has come to do the right things at the right moment. Mohamed Amine Belarbi Co-founder and President of the Arab Institute for Youth Policy Making med.amine.belarbi@gmail.com This document is the intellectual property of both Mohamed Amine Belarbi and the Arab Institute for Youth Policy Making. Any copy or redistribution of part or of the entire essay ought to include a reference to both parties. This essay is referenced as a publication of the AIYPM sourcing in its branch in Morocco, the MIYPM. You can consult the AIYPM blog on the following address: www. aiypm.co.cc