E book global warming

Global Warming The scientific opinion on climate change is the overall judgment among scientists regarding whether global warming is occurring, and (if so) its causes and probable consequences. This scientific opinion is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these respected reports and surveys.

Global warming is the observed and projected increases in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. The Earth's average temperature rose about 0.6° Celsius (1.1° Fahrenheit) in the 20th century, see temperature graphs below.

Fig. 1: Definition for global warming: Temp. increase in the last 1'000 years (graph http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/b/bb/1000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png)

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from

Fig. 2: Definition for global warming: Temp. increase in the last 150 years (graph http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record_png)

from

Prediction for future temperature increase (global warming predictions) According to different assumption about the future behaviour of mankind, a projection of current trends as represented by a number of different scenarios gives temperature increases of about 3° to 5° C (5° to 9° Fahrenheit) by the year 2100 or soon afterwards. A 3°C or 5° Fahrenheit rise would likely raise sea levels by about 25 meters (about 82 feet).

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Global Warming Causes Global warming is primarily a problem of too much carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere—which acts as a blanket, trapping heat and warming the planet. As we burn fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas for energy or cut down and burn forests to create pastures and plantations, carbon accumulates and overloads our atmosphere.

Certain waste management and agricultural practices aggravate the problem by releasing other potent global warming gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide. See the pie chart for a breakdown of heat-trapping global warming emissions by economic sector.

The main cause of global warming It took more than 20 years to broadly accept that mankind is causing global warming with the emission of greenhouse gases. The drastic increase in the emission of CO2 (carbon

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dioxide) within the last 30 years caused by burning fossil fuels has been identified as the major reason for the change of temperature in the atmosphere More than 80% of the world-wide energy demand is currently supplied by the fossil fuels coal, oil or gas. It will be impossible to find alternative sources, which could replace fossil fuels in the short or medium term. The energy demand is simply too high.

Another issue is the non-renewable characteristic of fossil fuels: It took nature millions of years to generate these resources, however we will have used them up within the next decades. Alone the shrinking supply will not make it possible to continue as usual for a longer time.

The main cause of global warming is our treatment of Nature 

Why have warnings about climate change been ignored for more than 20 years?



Why were ever more scientific evidence demanded to find the coherence of man-made CO2 emissions as cause of global warming? Why wasn't common sense reason enough to act?

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The true cause of global warming is our thoughtless attitude to Nature.



Why can one still today find people who stick their head in the sand and don't want to understand what's going on in the earth's atmosphere?



Why do most people refuse to change their personal behavior voluntary in order to reduce CO2 emissions caused by their activities?

The answer to all these questions is a rather simple one: In our technology and scientific minded world, we seem to have forgotten that mankind is only a relatively minor part of Nature. We ignore being part of a larger whole.

We believe to be able to control Nature instead of trying to arrange ourselves with Nature.

This haughtiness is the true main cause of global warming. As a matter of fact, some

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people still believe that technical solutions alone would be sufficient to fight global warming.

Although we are guests on Earth, we behave as if no further visitors would arrive after us.

It's like having a wild party where we destroy beds, the kitchen as well as the living room of a hotel without ever thinking about our future staying in the hotel nor about other guests arriving later.

In addition, our unit of measure is more and more often money only. What has no price tag, seems to have no value to us any more. In doing so we mix up economic growth with general well-being and financial income with personal happiness, respectively.

There is a loss of value behind this attitudes. We got blind for the true reason of our incarnation on earth: We live here to train those traits , which will finally lead to perpetual harmony with ourselves and with our environment as well as to inner calm and peace.

The lesson from global warming is to base all decisions on deep respect and consideration for Nature.

The ultimate global warming solutions is to behave as part of a larger whole Many people between 20 and 65 years seem to live for the one and only purpose of earning as much money as possible in order to be able to buy as many things as possible. In this light, it is not surprising that discussions about potential solutions to fight global warming concentrate on technical measures instead of a fundamental change of our attitude to life in general and to Nature in particular.

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Someone who respects Nature and regards mankind as a part of a larger whole would never dream about using up non-renewable resources in a short time nor would this person contaminate the environment with gigantic amounts of pollution. By contrary, someone who respects Nature and regards mankind as a part of a larger whole would in all decisions carefully evaluate any effects on Nature. The preservation of Nature would be given a very high priority. On this base, it wouldn't have been possible to deny and ignore global warming for more than 20 years!

It's your personal decision whether you want to be the cause of global warming In this context the question is whether global warming and its effects will eventually wake up mankind and spark off a change of paradigm. Will we understand this hint of Nature to follow the true meaning of life or will we continue to let us manipulate by media and advertisement as sheer and willing consumers in the economic cycle? Will we continue to strive for power, prestige and possessions following the concept „the more the better "?

Shall economic growth and an ever increasing personal income continue to be the reason for being here, beyond everything else?

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These questions can and must be answered by everyone. It is not primarily a decision of politicians or of the government. Everyone has to make a personal decision.

It is in our very own interest to induce fundamental changes in our attitude and behavior towards Nature: Modesty and humility, admiration and respect for all life on Earth instead of arrogance and haughtiness.

Let's emphasize it again: Not the others need to change, we must change ourselves. There are no international treaties or additional national laws required to start changing. We can start to change our consciousness immediately. It is really only about our personal behaviour - independent of what others do or don't do.

It's time for change!

Global Warming Is Urgent and Can Be Addressed CO2 survives in the atmosphere for a long time—up to many centuries—so its heattrapping effects are compounded over time. Of the many heat-trapping gases, CO2 puts us at the greatest risk of irreversible changes if it continues to accumulate unabated in the 8

atmosphere—as it is likely to do if the global economy remains dependent on fossil fuels for its energy needs. To put this in perspective, the carbon we put in the atmosphere today will literally determine not only our climate future but that of future generations as well.

Substantial scientific evidence indicates that an increase in the global average temperature of more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) (or 2 degrees Celsius [°C]) above pre-industrial levels poses severe risks to natural systems and to human health and wellbeing. The good news is that, because we as humans caused global warming, we can also do something about it. To avoid this level of warming, large emitters such as the United States need to greatly reduce heat-trapping gas emissions by mid century.

Delay in taking such action means the prospect of much steeper cuts later if there is any hope of staying below the 3.6°F (2°C) temperature goal. Delayed action is also likely to make it more difficult and costly to not only make these reductions, but also address the climate consequences that occur in the meantime.

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The Consequences of a Warming World Over the last century, global average temperature has increased by more than 1°F (0.7°C).

The 2001-2010 decade is the warmest since 1880—the earliest year for which comprehensive global temperature records were available. In fact, nine of the warmest years on record have occurred in just the last 10 years.

This warming has been accompanied by a decrease in very cold days and nights and an increase in extremely hot days and warm nights. The continental United States, for example, has seen record daily highs twice as often as record daily lows from 2000 to 2009. While the record shows that some parts of the world are warming faster than others, the long-term global upward trend is unambiguous.

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Of course, land and ocean temperature is only one way to measure the effects of climate change. A warming world also has the potential to change rainfall and snow patterns, increase droughts and severe storms, reduce lake ice cover, melt glaciers, increase sea levels, and change plant and animal behavior.

Regional Actions Add Up to Global Solutions Any action to reduce or eliminate the release of heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere helps slow the rate of warming and, likely, the pace and severity of change at any given hot spot. Local sources of carbon emissions vary from region to region, suggesting that solutions are often decided at the community level.

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Some regions, however, must rely upon global solutions such as international agreements to reduce the carbon overload in the atmosphere that threatens them. Small islands, for example, are a paltry source of carbon emissions and yet are disproportionately affected by the consequences of global carbon overload as accelerated sea level rise threatens the very existence of low-lying islands.

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IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING Effects of global warming by region The report urges mankind to start acting quickly. But even very rigorous measures to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases can only mitigate severe effects on our environment. Among the general consequences of global warming are: 

Increasing number of deaths as a consequence of heat waves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and other extreme weather conditions.



More and larger fires in woods.



Within a couple of decades, hundreds of millions of people will not have enough water.



Reduction of the biological diversity on Earth: 20 to 30 percent of all species are expected to be extinguished. This will have severe consequences on the respective food chains.



The increase of the sea level is expected to force tens of millions of people per year to move away from coastal areas within the next decades.

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Melting of glaciers: Small glaciers will disappear entirely, larger ones will shrink to about 30% of their current size.



Change in agricultural yields will force many people (in particular for warmer countries) to migrate into other areas of the world. Hundreds of millions of people are facing starvation by the year 2080 as an effect of global warming.



Come back of diseases like malaria into areas, where they have previously been extinguished.

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Expected effects of global warming on Europe For the first time, wide ranging impacts of changes in current climate have been documented: retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, shift of species ranges, and health impacts due to a heat wave of unprecedented magnitude. The observed changes described above are consistent with those projected for future climate change.

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Nearly all European regions are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change and these will pose challenges to many economic sectors.

Climate change is expected to magnify regional differences in Europe's natural resources and assets. Negative impacts will include increased risk of inland flash floods, and more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion (due to storminess and sea level rise).

The great majority of organisms and ecosystems will have difficulties adapting to climate change.



Mountainous areas will face glacier retreat, reduced snow cover and winter tourism, and extensive species losses (in some areas up to 60% under high emission scenarios by 2080).

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In Southern Europe, climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism, and in general, crop productivity. It is also projected to increase health risks due to heat waves and the frequency of wildfires.



In Central and Eastern Europe, summer precipitation is projected to decrease, causing higher water stress. Health risks due to heat waves are projected to increase. Forest productivity

is

expected

to

decline

and

the

frequency of peatland fires to increase. 

In Northern Europe, climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects, including some benefits such as reduced demand for heating, increased crop yields and increased forest growth. However, as climate change continues, its negative impacts (including more frequent winter floods, endangered ecosystems and increasing ground instability) are likely to outweigh its benefits.

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Adaptation to climate change is likely to benefit from experience gained in reaction to extreme climate events, by specifically implementing proactive climate change risk management adaptation plans.

Global warming is already underway with consequences that must be faced today as well as tomorrow. Evidence of changes to the Earth's physical, chemical and biological processes is now evident on every continent.

To fully appreciate the urgency of climate change, it's important to understand the ways it affects society and the natural environment. Sea levels are rising and glaciers are shrinking; record high temperatures and severe rainstorms and droughts are becoming increasingly common.

Changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns alter plant and animal behavior and have significant implications for humans. In this section, explore the connections between the climate data and the changes happening around you—and those you can expect to see in the future—in all parts of the globe, including your own backyard.

Not only are global warming-induced changes currently underway, but scientists also expect additional effects on human society and natural environments around the world.

Some further warming is already unavoidable due to past heat-trapping emissions; unless 16

we aggressively reduce today's emissions, scientists project extra warming and thus additional impacts.

The Climate Map arranges current and future climate impacts into five main groupings: 

People



Freshwater



Oceans



Ecosystems



Temperature

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Each of these major groupings, in turn, is divided into specific categories that describe more fully some of the consequences we may face. Click on any of the categories listed on the left for more information. he issue with stopping or reducing global warming is about risk and managing risk: Science still does not know the exact mechanism by which smoking and its associated chemicals causes cancer. What we do know is that smoking is the biggest risk factor in developing lung cancer. The more you smoke, the more your risk of getting lung cancer.

Not everyone who smokes gets lung cancer, and not everyone who gets lung cancer has smoked.

Similarly with Climate Change (global warming), we are seeing that temperatures are rising at the same time that atmospheric greenhouse gas levels have gone off the charts over the last 650,000 years.

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HEALTH As our climate changes, the risk of injury, illness, and death from the resulting heat waves, wildfires, intense storms, and floods rises.

Extreme

heat.

especially

If

when

high

temperatures,

combined

with

high

relative humidity, persist for several days (heat

waves),

and

if

nighttime

temperatures do not drop, extreme heat can be a killer. Of all climate-related projections

by

scientists,

rising

temperatures are the most robust. Higher temperatures are also the most influenced by human behavior: the fewer heat-trapping emissions we release into the atmosphere, the cooler we can keep our planet. Because winter temperatures are rising faster than summer ones, cold-related deaths are likely to decline.

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"Natural" disasters. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation under global warming are likely to lead to other effects that threaten human health and safety. For example, changing precipitation patterns and prolonged heat can create drought, which can cause forest and peat fires, putting residents and firefighters in danger. However, a warming atmosphere also holds more moisture, so the chance of extreme rainfall and flooding continues to rise in some regions with rain or snow. In many heavily populated areas, sea-level rise is more likely to put people in the path of storm surges and coastal flooding. Warmer ocean waters may spawn more intense tropical hurricanes and typhoons while ocean cycles continue to be a factor in the frequency of tropical cyclones.



Poor air quality. Three key ingredients—sunlight, warm air, and pollution from power plants and cars burning coal and gasoline—combine to produce groundlevel ozone (smog), which humans experience as poor air quality. Higher air temperatures increase smog, if sunlight, fossil fuel pollution, and air currents remain the same.

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Allergens and other nuisances. Warmer temperatures and higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere stimulate some plants to grow faster, mature earlier, or produce more potent allergens. Common allergens such as ragweed seem to respond particularly well to higher concentrations of CO2, as do pesky plants such as poison ivy. Allergy-related diseases rank

among

common illnesses that can lead to lower productivity.

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and

the

most chronic



Spreading diseases. Scientists expect a warmer world to bring changes in "disease vectors"—the mechanisms that spread some diseases. Insects previously stopped by cold winters are already moving to higher latitudes (toward the poles).

Warmer oceans and other surface waters may also mean severe cholera outbreaks and harmful bacteria in certain types of seafood. Still, changes in land use and the ability of public health systems to respond make projecting the risk of vector-borne disease particularly difficult.

People do not bear the health risks of climate change equally because: 

Climate trends differ by region. People who live in floodplains, for example, are more likely to see river or coastal flooding. Similarly, people who live in regions with poor air quality today are at greater risk from poor air quality days in the future.



Some people are more vulnerable to illness or death. Young children, the elderly, and those who are already ill are less able to withstand high temperatures and poor air quality, for example. Temperature extremes and smog hit people with heart and respiratory diseases, including asthma, particularly hard.



Wealthy nations are more likely to adapt to projected climate change and recover from climate-related disasters than poor countries . Even within nations, less economically fortunate individuals are more vulnerable because they are less likely to have air conditioning and well-insulated homes, and because they have fewer resources to escape danger.

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Better planning—through investments in infrastructure and public health strategies—can help communities become more resilient in a warming world. However, the costs of coping with health risks linked to severe climate change are often higher than the costs of curbing heat-trapping emissions in the first place.

FOOD Climate-related threats to global food production include risks to grain, vegetable, and fruit crops, livestock, and fisheries.

Reduced

yields.

The

productivity

of

and

livestock,

crops

including

milk

yields, may decline because of high

temperatures

and

drought-related stress. 

Increased

irrigation.

Regions of the world that now depend on rain-fed agriculture may require irrigation, bringing higher costs and conflict over access to water.

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

Planting and harvesting changes. Shifting seasonal rainfall patterns and more severe precipitation events—and related flooding—may delay planting and harvesting.



Decreased arability. Prime growing temperatures may shift to higher latitudes, where soil and nutrients may not be as suitable for producing crops, leaving lowerlatitude areas less productive.



More pests. Insect and plant pests may survive or even reproduce more often each year if cold winters no longer keep them in check. New pests may also invade 24

each region as temperature and humidity conditions change. Lower-latitude pests may move to higher latitudes, for example. 

Risks to fisheries. Shifts in the abundance and types of fish and other seafood may hurt commercial fisheries, while warmer waters may pose threats to human consumption, such as increasing the risk of infectious diseases. Extreme ocean temperatures and ocean acidification place coral reefs-—the foundations of many of the world's fisheries-—at risk.

As with health risks, nations and individuals do not bear threats to the global food supply equally. Nations that lose arable land and critical fisheries may not have the resources or climate to pursue reasonable-cost options for maintaining food security.

Some nations are also more vulnerable to unfavorable international trade agreements and regional strife that may interrupt food distribution.

WATER USE Humans use water for everything from drinking and bathing to growing crops, supporting livestock and fish farms, shipping goods, generating electricity, and simply relaxing and having fun. Yet climate change is producing profound changes in this precious commodity, threatening water availability, access, and even quality.

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

Decline in drinking water—both quantity and quality—is expected for these reasons: ► Municipal sewer systems may overflow during extreme rainfall

events,

untreated drinking

gushing

sewage water

into

supplies.

► Loss of mountain snowpack and earlier spring snowmelt spurred

by

temperatures

higher

reduce

the

availability of drinking water downstream. ► The shrinking of mountain glaciers

threatens

drinking

water

supplies

for

millions

of

people.

► Sea-level rise can lead to saltwater intrusion into groundwater drinking supplies, especially in low-lying, gently sloping coastal areas. 

Decline in irrigation supplies. Loss of mountain snowpack reduces the amount of water available for irrigation downstream, while earlier spring snowmelt affects the timing. Saltwater intrusion may contaminate the supply from groundwater.



Higher shipping costs. Lower lake and river levels may reduce the capacity of ships to carry freight safely due to the danger of their running aground or preclude the use of large ships altogether—both of which may increase shipping costs for food and other commodities.



Disruptions to power supply. Lower lake and river levels may threaten the capacity of hydroelectric plants, while higher temperatures may mean that water is too warm to cool coal and nuclear power plants, leading to power brownouts.

Shrinking mountain glaciers threaten electricity generation as well.



Effects on recreation. Reduced snowpack and earlier spring snowmelt put traditional winter sports, such as skiing and snowmobiling, at risk, while lower

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water levels in lakes and rivers increase the costs of maintaining recreational amenities such as pleasure boat docks and even beaches.

COSTS Scientists and economists are beginning to grapple with the serious economic and environmental consequences if we fail to reduce global carbon emissions quickly and deeply. The most expensive thing we can do isnothing.

Damage to property and infrastructure. Sea-level rise, floods, droughts, wildfires, and extreme

storms

require

extensive repair of essential infrastructure such as homes, roads, bridges, railroad tracks, airport runways, power lines, dams, levees, and seawalls. 

Lost productivity. Disruptions in daily life related to climate change can mean lost work and school days and harm trade, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, energy production, and tourism. Severe rainfall events and snowstorms can delay planting and harvesting, cause power outages, snarl traffic, delay air travel, and otherwise make it difficult for people to go about their daily business. Climaterelated health risks also reduce productivity, such as when extreme heat curtails construction, or when more potent allergies and more air pollution lead to lost work and school days.



Mass migration and security threats. Global warming is likely to increase the number of "climate refugees"—people who are forced to leave their homes because of drought, flooding, or other climate-related disasters. Mass movements of people 27

and social disruption may lead to civil unrest, and might even spur military intervention and other unintended consequences. 

Coping costs. Societies may find ways to prepare for and cope with some climate impacts—provided that we do not let our carbon emissions continue unabated.

However, even a partial accounting of these measures suggests that coping is likely to be more costly steps to reduce carbon emissions thereby reducing associated climate impacts.

For example, farmers might need to irrigate previously rain-fed areas, cool vulnerable livestock, and manage new or more numerous pests. Local and state governments that taker early steps to ensure that houses are more energy efficient, and build early warning systems for heat waves and disasters and add emergency responders are more likely to cope with extreme events. Governments may also have to build seawalls, contain sewer overflows, and strengthen bridges, subways, and other critical components of the transportation system.

Rebuilding after disasters strike is likely to prove even more costly than these preventive measures, studies show. And these costs do not include those stemming from lives lost and other irreversible consequences of allowing heat-trapping gases to accumulate unchecked in our atmosphere.

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EXTREME WET A warmer climate spurs the evaporation of water from land and sea and allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture—thus setting the stage for more extreme precipitation.

The atmosphere's water-holding capacity increases by about 4 percent for every 1° Fahrenheit (0.6° Celsius) rise in temperature.

This

effect

similar

the

difference

to

is

between a warm bathroom and a cold bathroom: the mirror fogs up more when the air is warmer.

Extreme precipitation is likely when a storm passes through a warmer atmosphere holding more water. In warmer months, it takes the form of torrential rainstorms; in winter,blizzards are more likely.

At the same time, most regions, in the face of warming temperatures, are losing snow cover on the ground that lasts longer than 30 days. Winters are shorter, fewer cold records are set, more precipitation is falling as rain and less as snow—although whopper snowstorms are even more likely in some places—and snowpacks are shrinking and melting earlier.

Whether precipitation falls as rain or snow, these extremes can heighten the risk of flood, and cause economic and social disruptions for communities unprepared to cope.

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Wet places tend to get wetter. Atmospheric circulation over oceans, plains, and mountains helps determine where rainforests thrive and semi-arid regions develop.

However, wet places tend to get wetter and dry places dryer in a warming world—as is already occurring today.

Places now wetter than the historical average include Northern Europe, eastern North and South America, and northern and central Asia.

Northern Scandinavia and South and North Korea recorded precipitation increases of 315 percent per decade between 1979 and 2005. In the U.S. Northeast, the number of days with very heavy precipitation rose by 58 percent over the last 50 years, while the number of such days in the U.S. Midwest rose 27 percent. Yet even as rainfall occurs in heavier events, the periods between these extremes are likely to become longer, warmer, and drier. Scientists expect these trends to intensify if our carbon emissions continue unabated.

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EXTREME DRY While some regions are likely to get wetter as the world warms, other regions that are already on the dry side are likely to get drier.

Global warming affects evapotranspiration— the movement of water into the atmosphere from land and water surfaces and plants

due to

evaporation and transpiration— which is expected to lead to: 

Increased drought in dry areas. In drier regions, evapotranspiration may produce periods of drought—defined as below-normal levels of rivers, lakes, and groundwater, and lack of enough soil moisture in agricultural areas.

Precipitation has declined in the tropics and subtropics since 1970.

Southern Africa, the Sahel region of Africa,

southern

Mediterranean,

and

Asia,

the

the

U.S.

Southwest, for example, are getting drier. Even areas that remain relatively wet can experience long, dry conditions between extreme precipitation events. 

Expansion of dry areas. Scientists expect the amount of land affected by drought to grow by mid-century—and water resources in affected areas to decline as much as 30 percent. These changes occur partly because of an expanding atmospheric circulation pattern known as the Hadley Cell—in which warm air in the tropics rises, loses moisture to tropical thunderstorms, and descends in the

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subtropics as dry air. As jet streams continue

to

shift

to

higher

latitudes, and storm patterns shift along with them, semi-arid and desert

areas

are

expected

to

expand.

LAND ICE Shrinking land ice is wreaking havoc across the globe.

Sea-level rise. Water from shrinking glaciers and ice sheets is now the major contributor to global sea-level rise. Long locked away in polar regions and mountains, this extra runoff is adding new freshwater to the world's oceans. 

Long-term decline in water resources. Nearly one-sixth of the world's population lives near rivers that derive their water from glaciers and snow cover.

Most of these communities can expect

to

resources

see peak

their

water

and

then

ultimately decline during this century. 

Short-term increase in

flash floods. Many rivers that derive their water from melting glaciers or snow are likely to have earlier peak runoff in 32

spring and an overall increase in runoff, at least in the short term—potentially increasing the risk of flash floods and rockslides. 

‘Accelerated warming from albedo. Land ice in polar regions reflects some of

the sun's energy back into space (known as albedo), helping keep the planet cool.

As this ice shrinks and darker land is exposed, it absorbs more solar energy— creating a feedback loop that accelerates the planet's warming.

Land ice includes any form of ice that lasts longer than a year on land, such as mountain glaciers,ice sheets, ice caps and ice fields (both similar to but smaller than an ice sheet), and frozen ground or permafrost. Nearly a quarter of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere is permafrost, with layers up to tens of meters thick. Abovefreezing temperatures occur at the base of the permafrost layer.

OCEAN CHEMISTRY The world's oceans are becoming more acidic, threatening sea life.

The acidification of the oceans due to climate change impairs the ability of coral reefs and shelled organisms to form skeletons and shells.

Acidification occurs when the oceans absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. Here is how this works. The ocean has dissolved inorganic carbon in three forms—most as bicarbonate, a little bit as carbonate and a very tiny part as carbon dioxide, or CO2.

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As more CO2 from the atmosphere dissolves into the ocean, it changes the relative proportion of these three, making the water more acidic.

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Specifically, it reduces the concentration of carbonate ions in surface ocean water by 10 percent, compared with pre-industrial levels. This is significant because coral reefs and shelled marine organisms need carbonate ions to form the lime or calcium carbonate that composes their skeletons and shells.

Some research shows that if atmospheric concentrations of CO2 reach 520 parts per million—we are at 382 ppm now, and 520 ppm is plausible by mid-century—most of the coral species living in warm ocean waters could scarcely support further growth such as species that have larvae that respond negatively to higher ocean acidity.

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SEA LEVEL Higher seas endanger coastal communities—where 40 percent of the world's population lives—and

threaten

groundwater

supplies.

Two major mechanisms are causing sea level to rise. First, shrinking land ice, such as mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets, is releasing water into the oceans. Second, as ocean temperatures rise, the warmer water expands. Trapped within a basin bounded by the continents, the water has nowhere to go but up. In some parts of the world, especially low-lying river deltas, local land is sinking (known as subsidence)— mak ing sea levels that much higher. The consequences of sea level rise include: 

Threats to coastal communities. Some 40 percent of the world's population lives within 62 miles (100 kilometers) of the ocean, putting millions of lives and billions of dollars' worth of property and infrastructure at risk. o

High tides and storm surges

riding on ever-higher seas are more dangerous to people and coastal infrastructure.

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o

Natural protections against damaging storm surges are increasingly threatened.

Barrier islands, beaches, sand dunes, salt marshes, mangrove stands, and mud and sand flats retreat inland as sea level rises, unless there are obstructions along the retreat path. If they cannot move, these natural protections are washed over or drowned.

Many shorelines have sea walls, jetties, and other artificial defenses to protect roads, buildings, and other vital coastal resources. In these areas, sea-level rise increases erosion of stranded beaches, wetlands, and engineered structures.

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

Saltwater intrusion. Sea-level rise can mean that saltwater intrudes into groundwater drinking supplies, contaminates irrigation supplies, or overruns agricultural fields. Low-lying, gently sloping coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to contamination of freshwater supplies.

LAKES AND RIVERS Climate change is already beginning to affect plants and animals that live in freshwater lakes and rivers, altering their habitat and bringing life-threatening stress and disease.

Displacement of cold-water species. As air temperatures rise, water temperatures do also—particularly in shallow stretches of rivers and surface waters of lakes. Streams and lakes may become unsuitable for cold-water fish but support species that thrive in warmer waters. Some warm-water species are already moving to waters at higher latitudes and altitudes. Dead

zones. In a warming climate, a

warmer upper layer in deep lakes slows down air exchange—a process that normally adds oxygen to the water. This, in turn, often creates large "dead zones"— areas depleted of oxygen and unable to support life. Persistent dead zones can produce toxic algal blooms, foul-smelling drinking water, and massive fish kills. 

Effects on reproduction. Earlier snowmelt, rising amounts of precipitation that falls as rain rather than snow, and more severe and frequent flooding—all linked to global warming—may affect the reproduction of aquatic species.

Some salmon populations have declined, for example, as more intense spring floods have washed away salmon eggs laid in stream beds.

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Stress. When stream flow peaks earlier in the spring owing to warmer temperatures, low stream flow begins earlier in the summer and lasts longer in the fall.

These changes stress aquatic plants and animals that have adapted to specific low-flow conditions. The survival rates of fish such as salmon and trout are known to diminish when water levels in rivers and streams are dangerously low, for example. That's partly because bears can snag spawning salmon more easily in very shallow water, as the salmon struggle upstream.

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

Disease. The more intense precipitation that accompanies a warming world makes river flooding more likely. This flooding—combined with sewer system overflows

and

other

problems

stemming

from

inadequate

sanitation

infrastructure—can lead to disease outbreaks from water-borne bacteria.

FLOODS, DROUGHTS, LANDSLIDES AND OTHER EFFECTS In most of Europe, less precipitation in summer and rising temperatures will lead to more frequent and intense summer droughts. The Mediterranean

region

is

already

experiencing these effects, and is expected to suffer from more extreme droughts in the coming decades, together with other regions, such as central Europe.

Greater droughts, heat waves and dry spells across most of the Mediterranean region will increase the length and severity of the fire season, the area at risk and the probability of large fires, possibly enhancing desertification. Locations currently not prone to fires could experience this catastrophic hazard and become risk areas.

40

Climate change will increase the chances of flooding in some regions of Europe. Flood damage is expected to rise across Europe. Meanwhile, some north-eastern parts will become less flood-prone due to a reduction in snow accumulation.

River floods are a common natural disaster in Europe, and along with storms have resulted in fatalities, affected millions of people and delivered massive direct economic losses in the last three decades. Climate change is likely to increase the occurrence and frequency of flooding across Europe in the coming years.

Heavy rainstorms are projected to become more common and more intense due to warmer temperatures. Flash floods and pluvial floods, triggered by local intense precipitation events, are expected to become more frequent throughout Europe.

41

In some regions, certain risks, such as early spring floods due to reduced snow accumulation during winter, could decrease in the short term, but new risks associated with climate change may offset positive effects in the medium term.

SEA ICE Loss of sea ice accelerates warming, threatens animals and peoples living in the Arctic and raises global security concerns.

Polar sea ice melts each summer and

reforms

each

winter—a

freeze-thaw cycle that in the Arctic has been dramatically altered by global warming. Not only is summer sea ice shrinking rapidly in the Arctic, but so is the average thickness of sea ice.

Where in the past, some Arctic sea ice grew to 10 feet (3 meters) thick over multiple years, now much of the ice has only one year of growth, making it much more susceptible to melting in the summer. Scientists project that the Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in summer in just a few decades. The cascade of consequences include: 

Accelerated warming from albedo. Lost sea ice exposes dark, open waters, dramatically shifting the ocean surface from highly reflective to one that absorbs most of the sun's energy. This can set off a vicious cycle: ice loss leads to further warming of the ocean surface, which can lead to more ice loss. The loss of polar reflectivity (albedo) is one climate-related amplification that has scientists losing sleep at night.

42



Accelerated warming due to higher Arctic temperatures. The loss and thinning of Arctic sea ice raises regional temperatures, delaying the formation of sea ice in the fall, and

transferring

more

heat

from

the

ocean

to

the

air.

If

higher

air temperatures speed the degradation of frozen ground (permafrost) on adjacent lands, they could release vast stores of carbon often trapped in the permafrost for thousands of years—further amplifying climate change.

43



Severe threats to polar creatures. Polar creatures that depend on ice for all or parts of their life cycle are highly threatened by a warming world. In the south polar region, some penguin colonies are moving to new locations because their main food source—krill, small creatures near the bottom of the marine food web— is changing in response to shifting ocean temperatures. In the Arctic, polar bears must swim greater distances in open water to find the sea-ice habitat that is home to their prey: seals, which use breathing holes through the ice.



Threats to indigenous ways of life. These changes in animal habitat and abundance threaten indigenous ways of life, some of which have flourished in the Arctic for thousands of years. Traditional hunting methods, for example, are becoming more risky because of thin ice, and because the dates when ice forms and thaws are less predictable.



Shoreline erosion in Arctic. The loss of sea ice also exposes Arctic coastal areas to severe erosion from wind and waves—sometimes forcing entire communities to move further inland to avoid collapsing shorelines.



Security concerns from new shipping routes. An ice-free Arctic Ocean might open up more efficient global shipping routes, and provide easier access to 44

oil and gas deposits. However, both developments could bring security concerns, as Arctic countries vie for access to valuable resources or feel compelled to protect these natural and commercial resources.

Loss of sea ice does not raise sea level (though loss of land ice does). Because sea ice forms from the sea and floats on the sea, it behaves like ice cubes in a glass of water—their melting does not cause the glass to overflow.

LAND Rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are changing the geographic areas where mammals, birds, insects, and plants that live on land can survive—and are affecting the timing of lifecycle events, such as bud bursts, leaf drop from trees, pollination, reproduction, and bird migration. 

Forced migrations and extinctions. Plants and animals are migrating to higher altitudes and latitudes. Land-based species that already live in extreme habitats—such as plants and animals found only in alpine regions—may become extinct because they literally have no place to go, while other shrubs and boreal trees encroach on the warming tundra. Plant-hardiness zones are shifting as formerly low-latitude plants survive at higher latitudes. 

Increase in agricultural

pests. Agricultural pests formerly constrained to low-latitude locales are moving to higher latitudes as those regions warm. And some pests are reproducing more often as warm seasons last longer. In the now beetle-infested forests of the Kenai

45

Peninsula of Alaska, for example, the pine bark beetle often completes two or three reproduction cycles per year instead of only one.



Desynchronization of life-cycle events. Many formerly synchronized lifecycle events are now out of whack. For example, bird migrations timed to seasonal changes or temperatures may begin earlier. And these birds may find that the insects and other creatures on which they feed along migration routes are not available. Meanwhile warmer temperatures in late winter may force flowers to bud early, leaving them vulnerable to late-season frost.



Changing woodlands. Many tree species are adapted to particular temperature and moisture conditions. As these conditions change, habitats become unsuitable for saplings to grow, and species attempt to migrate. Because trees are so longlived, the effects may not be noticeable for many years. However, species that now grow only in certain areas—such as the sugar maple, now found in parts of EUROPE—may be quite rare in their southern range by the end of this century.



Increase in allergens and noxious plants. Rising concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere act as fertilizer to many plants. These changes may stimulate growth in certain crops, trees, and weeds—at least under moderate temperature increases as the climate warms. Some potent allergens and noxious plants, such as 46

poison ivy—to which roughly 80 percent of people are allergic—seem to especially thrive in warm and CO2-rich conditions.

SALT WATER Although marine species are more difficult to see and less well studied than land and freshwater species, they are known to be experiencing some of the same—and some different—effects from global warming. 

Forced

migrations.

Cold-

water species are on the move, seeking cooler, deeper, or higherlatitude waters, while warm-water species are moving to places formerly too cold for their survival. 

Disease. Scientists are detecting

marine diseases, such as lobster-shell disease, in waters historically thought to be too cold.

There is some indication that higher ocean temperatures—between 86 and 95° Fahrenheit (30 to 35° Celsius)—promote optimal growth of several coral pathogens.

47



Coral bleaching. As seawater temperatures rise above the range that corals can tolerate, they are expelling their symbiotic algae and exposing white skeletons—a process known as bleaching.



Harm to wetlands. Coastal wetlands, salt marshes, and mangroves are highly vulnerable to inundation as sea levels rise, unless they can migrate inland unimpeded. More frequent droughts in upland and coastal areas may also reduce the flow of freshwater into these brackish ecosystems, contributing to marsh dieback and shoreline retreat. Freshwater from melting land ice and extreme rainfall—the results of global warming—dilutes salinity levels near shore, potentially disrupting the delicate balance among creatures in these productive waters.

In addition, retreating sea ice exerts a cascading influence on marine ecosystems.

For example, it affects ocean bottom-dwelling species that depend on plankton blooms near the ice edge, on up the marine food chain to the commercially valuable fish species that lived where the ice edge used to be.

48

AIR TEMPERATURE Rising air temperatures bring heat waves, spread disease, shift plant and animal habitat and cause extreme weather events, from drought to blizzards.

How do we know the air is getting warmer? The evidence is very strong. 

The 2001-2010 decade is the

warmest since 1880—the year when enough temperature records became available worldwide to calculate a global average. 

Over the last 50 years, the number

of

cold

days

and

record

low

temperatures in various locations has declined, while the number of hot days and heat waves has risen most places worldwide. 

The best projections show that average global temperatures are likely to increase 3.1-7.2° F (1.8-4.0° C) by the end of the century depending on the amount of carbon emissions.

To document air temperature, scientists measure land surface temperatures a short distance above the ground at stations around the world. These researchers standardize the measurements by accounting for elevation, latitude, time of observation, and type of instrument, and then integrate the information to form a long-term record at a particular location.

49

Scientists combine measurements of land surface temperatures and sea surface temperatures to calculate the global average temperature. They report this average as the difference from a historical base period.

For example, NASA compares the global average temperature each year to a base temperature of roughly 57.2° F (14° C)—an average derived from several decades.

Three major research centers regularly calculate the global average temperature.

Although each center uses a slightly different technique, all the results show the same two

50

trends. The first is that each of the last three decades has been hotter than the one before.

The second is that the long-term average global temperature is rising.

CO2 CONCENTRATION There is no doubt any more: In order to mitigate global warming, the emission of greenhouse gases must be reduced, the sooner the better. This will then lead to a stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere - and in the very long term hopefully to a decreasing concentration.

51

The level at which the greenhouse gas concentration gets stabilized does determine the warming effect, i.e. the temperature increase of the earth's surface and of the oceans.

The following graph shows the relation between the greenhouse gas concentration (expressed as CO2-equivalents) and the resulting average global temperature increase on the surface.

The above graphs represents the state of knwledge according to IPCC as per November 2007. The black line in the middle of the range is the most likely relationship, the red line on top and the blue line on the bottom indicate the uncertainty (95% confidence interval).

A temperature increase of more than about 2° C will with high likelyhood lead to dramatic effects on the environment. This is the reason why the European community suggests to limit the global warming to max. 2° C. This means according to the

52

above graph limiting the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere to about 450 ppm CO2 equivalents. The current value is about 380 ppm CO2.

CARBON FOOTPRINT A carbon footprint is defined as:

The total amount of greenhouse gases produced to directly and indirectly support human activities, usually expressed in equivalent tons of carbon dioxide (CO2).

In other words: When you drive a car, the engine burns fuel which creates a certain amount of CO2, depending on its fuel consumption and the driving distance. (CO2 is the chemical symbol for carbon dioxide). When you heat your house with oil, gas or coal, then you also generate CO2. Even if you heat your house with electricity, the generation of the electrical power may also have emitted a certain amount of CO2. When you buy food and goods, the production of the food and goods also emitted some quantities of CO2.

53

Your carbon footprint is the sum of all emissions of CO2 (carbon dioxide), which were induced by your activities in a given

time

frame. Usually

a

carbon footprint is calculated for the time period of a year.

The best way is to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions based on the fuel consumption. In the next step you can add the CO2 emission to your carbon footprint. Below is a table for the most common used fuels: Examples: 

For each (UK-) gallon of petrol

fuel consumed, 10.4 kg carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted. 

For each (US-) gallon of gasoline

fuel consumed, 8.7 kg carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted. 

If your car consumes 7.5 liter diesel per 100 km, then a drive of 300 km distance consumes 3 x 7.5 = 22.5 liter diesel, which adds 22.5 x 2.7 kg = 60.75 kg CO2 to your personal carbon footprint.

Each of the following activities add 1 kg of CO2 to your personal carbon footprint:



Travel by public transportation (train or bus) a distance of 10 to 12 km (6.5 to 7 miles)

54



Drive with your car a distance of 6 km or 3.75 miles (assuming 7.3 litres petrol per 100 km or 39 mpg)



Fly with a plane a distance of 2.2 km or 1.375 miles.



Operate your computer for 32 hours (60 Watt consumption assumed)



Production of 5 plastic bags



Production of 2 plastic bottles



Production of 1/3 of an American cheeseburger (yes, the production of each cheeseburger emits 3.1 kg of CO2!)

55

To calculate the above contributions to the carbon footprint, the current UK mix for electricity and trains was taken into account.

Carbon dioxide is a so called greenhouse gas causing global warming . Other greenhouse gases which might be emitted as a result of your activities are e.g. methane and ozone. These greenhouse gases are normally also taken into account for the carbon footprint. They are converted into the amount of CO2 that would cause the same effects on global warming (this is called equivalent CO2 amount).

Few people express their carbon footprint in kg carbon rather than kg carbon dioxide. You can always convert kg carbon dioxide in kg carbon by multiplying with a factor 0.27 (1'000 kg CO2 equals 270 kg carbon). The carbon footprint is a very powerful tool to understand the impact of personal behaviour on global warming. Most people are shocked when they see the amount of CO2 their activities create! If you personally want to contribute to stop global warming, the calculation and constant monitoring of your personal carbon footprint is essential.

56

For registered users, there is a carbon footprint calculator on this website, which allows to store individual activities like, e.g. travelling by car, train, bus or air plane, fuel consumptions, electricity bills and so on (we call the individual contributions "carbon stamps"). You can then see the amount of CO2 created for each individual activity. You can do this either in advance and use it as a help for decisions or afterwards to continually sum up your carbon dioxide emissions.

There are graphs available on this site for the CO2 emissions per capita by country (average carbon footprint by country). In the medium- and long term, the carbon footprint must be reduced to less than 2'000 kg CO2 per year and per person. This is the maximum allowance for a sustainable living .

CO2 EMISSIONS BY COUNTRY The following graph shows the total CO2 emission in million tons by country for the year 2002. Data source was the World Resources Institute (WRI). The CO2 emissions for the year 2006 are about 12 to 15% higher than the figures shown here.

Below are the values of the carbon footprint by capita for the year 2002. Data source was again the World Resources Institute (WRI). Some remarks to these values: 

The world-wide average is 4 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) per person per year



The average of all industrialised nations is about 11 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) per person per year



In the medium and long term, a world-wide average emission of maximum 2 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) per person per year must be targeted. This amount is nowadays considered to be the maximum allowed quantity for a sustainable living on earth.



The International Energy Institute (IEA) predicts a further increase of the world-wide CO2 emissions by 55% within the next 25 years if no immediate actions to stop global 57

warming are put in place.

However,

even

in

their

alternative scenario

where

"... vigorous new policy measures already being contemplated.." are

introduced,

IEA predicts growth CO2

of

compared

58

the

emissions

by 2004!

a

28% to

59

OCEAN TEMPERATURE Warmer oceans put coastal communities at risk, increase infrastructure costs, endanger polar creatures and threaten coral reefs and fisheries. Perhaps most alarmingly, rising ocean temperatures accelerate the overall warming trend.

Not only are ocean surface waters getting warmer, but so is water 1,500 feet below the

surface.

These

increases

in

temperature lie well outside the bounds of natural variation.

In fact, the ocean

has

absorbed so much heat— about

20

times

as

much as the atmosphere over

the

past

half-

century— that some models suggest that it is likely to warm the air another degree Fahrenheit (0.55° Celsius) worldwide over the coming decades.

Although ocean temperatures are more difficult to measure than land temperatures, scientists can use several methods to create an extensive ocean record.

60



Dropped from ships or airplanes, probes gauging the ocean's conductivity, temperature,

and

density

provide

nearly

continuous

surface-to-bottom

measurements at specific times. However, these probes rarely reoccupy an exact location. 

Remote vehicles can measure the temperature of deep ocean waters, and periodically surface to transfer the information to satellites.



Moorings on the ocean bottom can measure temperatures at fixed distances above the bottom, until a ship retrieves the instruments—typically after a few months or years.

61



The most common measurements, however, are taken at the sea surface. Scientists combine these measurements with land surface measurements to calculate the global average temperature.



Scientists also know that ocean temperatures are rising because warm-water species are moving into areas that were formerly too cold, while cool-water and cold-water species are likewise on the move.

WATER TEMPERATURE Warmer lakes, rivers and streams threaten aquatic species, by disrupting reproductive cycles, displacing cold-water species and creating dead zones in deep lakes.

Scientists rely on automatic stream gauges to measure the temperature of rivers.

Researchers

can

use

techniques

similar

to

those

used

to

monitor ocean

temperatures—ships, buoys, remote vehicles, airplanes, and satellites—to record the temperature of large lakes.

62

Scientists also know that freshwater temperatures are rising because warm-water species are moving into areas that were formerly too cold, while cool- and cold-water species are likewise on the move.

GROUND TEMPERATURE As permafrost (frozen ground) thaws, it releases heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, which accelerates global warming. It also alters local ecosystems and destabilizes infrastructure, necessitating costly repairs.

Permafrost—an

essential

component of many high-latitude landscapes—is soil or rock that remains at or below 32° F (0° C) for at least two years.

In

Arctic

regions,

permafrost

temperatures often sink to 17.6° F (8° C) or lower. Permafrost averages 656 feet (200 meters) thick, but can be as much as 2,132 feet (650 meters) thick.

Permafrost is very sensitive to direct changes in air temperature and snow cover, making it especially vulnerable to global warming. And as permafrost thaws, it can release both carbon dioxide and methane from carbon often stored in soil for thousands of years. (The type of heat-trapping gas the permafrost releases depends on moisture conditions, and whether the permafrost has contact with air.) The thawing of the permafrost can therefore worsen climate change.

The thawing of permafrost in northern forests could completely alter local ecosystems.

Existing thawing is already destabilizing the human infrastructure, which require frequent repair.

63

Scientists typically measure the temperature of permafrost near the top of the "active layer," which freezes and thaws seasonally. Scientists may also drill a borehole to measure temperatures deep below ground.

64

SOLUTIONS Scientists estimate that by 2050, we need to reduce worldwide emissions to at least half of their 1990 levels in order to avoid further harmful impacts from climate change. It’s an urgent challenge, and it requires an equally urgent response. Around the world, many of the most vulnerable communities are already struggling to cope with the impacts of climate change.

CI has been pioneering ways to help communities adapt to challenges like rising sea levels, severe storms and more frequent flooding. We also develop new ways of farming that support a healthy environment, minimize climate impacts and create a better quality of life for farmers. And, in addition to on-the-ground expertise and scientific know-how, CI offers practical recommendations that policymakers need to make smart decisions.

Cause of global warming: Consensus on consensus A research team confirms that 97 percent of climate scientists agree that climate change is caused by humans. The group includes Sarah Green, a chemistry professor at Michigan Technological University.

65

"What's important is that this is not just one study -- it's the consensus of multiple studies," Green says. This consistency across studies contrasts with the language used by climate change doubters. This perspective stems from, as the authors write, "conflating the opinions of non-experts with experts and assuming that lack of affirmation equals dissent."

Environmental Research Letters published the paper this week. In it, the team lays out what they call "consensus on consensus" and draws from seven independent consensus studies by the co-authors. This includes a study from 2013, in which the researchers surveyed more than 11,000 abstracts and found most scientists agree that humans are causing climate change. Through this new collaboration, multiple consensus researchers -- and their data gathered from different approaches -- lead to essentially the same conclusion.

The key factor comes down to expertise: The more expertise in climate science the scientists have, the more they agree on human-caused climate change.

66

Skeptic vs. Doubter There are many surveys about climate change consensus. The problem with some surveys, Green points out, is that they are biased towards populations with predetermined points of view. Additionally, respondents to some surveys lack scientific expertise in climate science.

67

"The public has a very skewed view of how much disagreement there is in the scientific community," she says. Only 12 percent of the US public are aware there is such strong scientific agreement in this area, and those who reject mainstream climate science continue to claim that there is a lack of scientific consensus. People who think scientists are still debating climate change do not see the problem as urgent and are unlikely to support solutions.

This new paper is a rebuttal to a comment criticizing the 2013 paper. Green is quick to point out that skepticism, a drive to dig deeper and seeking to better validate data, is a crucial part of the scientific process.

"But climate change denial is not about scientific skepticism," she says.

Broader Impacts Refuting climate change doubters is the main purpose of a website Green contributes to called skepticalscience.com. The website is run by the new study's lead author, John Cook from the University of Queensland in Australia. He says consensus studies have helped change political dialogue around climate change.

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Co-author Naomi Oreskes from Harvard University originally pursued consensus data about climate change in 2004 and co-wrote Merchants of Doubt, which was turned into a documentary in 2014. She says that this latest work places the findings in the broader context of other research.

"By compiling and analyzing all of this research -- essentially a meta-study of metastudies -- we've established a consistent picture with high levels of scientific agreement among climate experts," she says.

And among climate scientists, there's little doubt. There is consensus on consensus.

SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL WARMING There is no single solution to global warming, which is primarily a problem of too much heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere. The technologies and approaches outlined below are all needed to bring down the emissions

69

of these gases by at least 80 percent by mid-century. To see how they are best deployed in each region of the world, use the menu at left. 

Boosting energy efficiency: The energy used to power, heat, and cool our homes, businesses, and industries is the single largest contributor to global warming. Energy efficiency technologies allow us to use less energy to get the same—or higher—level of production, service, and comfort. This approach has vast potential to save both energy and money, and can be deployed quickly.



Greening transportation: The transportation sector's emissions have increased at a faster rate than any other energy-using sector over the past decade.

A variety of solutions are at hand, including improving efficiency (miles per gallon) in all modes of transport, switching to low-carbon fuels, and reducing vehicle miles traveled through smart growth and more efficient mass transportation systems.



Revving up renewables: Renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy are available around the world. Multiple studies have shown that renewable energy has the technical potential to meet the vast majority of our energy needs. Renewable technologies can be deployed quickly, are increasingly cost-effective, and create jobs while reducing pollution.

70



Phasing out fossil fuel electricity: Dramatically reducing our use of fossil fuels—especially carbon-intensive coal—is essential to tackle climate change.

There are many ways to begin this process. Key action steps include: not building any new coal-burning power plants, initiating a phased shutdown of coal plants starting with the oldest and dirtiest, and capturing and storing carbon emissions from power plants. While it may sound like science fiction, the technology exists to store carbon emissions underground.

71

The technology has not been deployed on a large scale or proven to be safe and permanent, but it has been demonstrated in other contexts such as oil and natural gas recovery. Demonstration projects to test the viability and costs of this technology for power plant emissions are worth pursuing.



Managing forests and agriculture: Taken together, tropical deforestation and emissions from agriculture represent nearly 30 percent of the world's heattrapping emissions. We can fight global warming by reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and by making our food production practices more sustainable.



Exploring nuclear: Because nuclear power results in few global warming emissions, an increased share of nuclear power in the energy mix could help reduce global warming—but nuclear technology poses serious threats to our security and, as the accident at the Fukushima Diaichi plant in Japan illustrates to our health and the environment as well. The question remains: can the safety, proliferation, waste disposal, and cost barriers of nuclear power be overcome?

72



Developing

and

deploying

new

low-carbon

and

zero-carbon

technologies: Research into and development of the next generation of lowcarbon technologies will be critical to deep mid-century reductions in global emissions. Current research on battery technology, new materials for solar cells, harnessing energy from novel sources like bacteria and algae, and other innovative areas could provide important breakthroughs.

73



Ensuring sustainable development: The countries of the world—from the most to the least developed—vary dramatically in their contributions to the problem of climate change and in their responsibilities and capacities to confront it. A successful global compact on climate change must include financial assistance from richer countries to poorer countries to help make the transition to low-carbon development pathways and to help adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Adapting to changes already underway: As the Climate Map demonstrates, the impacts of a warming world are already being felt by people around the globe. If climate change continues unchecked, these impacts are almost certain to get worse. From sea level rise to heat waves, from extreme weather to disease outbreaks, each unique challenge requires locally-suitable solutions to prepare for and respond to the impacts of global warming. Unfortunately, those who will be hit hardest and first by the impacts of a changing climate are likely to be the poor and vulnerable, especially those in the least developed countries. Developed countries must take a leadership role in providing financial and technical help for adaptation.

74

GLOBAL WARMING SOLUTIONS – SENSIBLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION The causes of global warming show strikingly well that our energy policy has been inadequate to put it mildly. For years we have been emitting much too much carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere as a result of burning fossil fuels, i.e. coal, gas and oil.

All well meant appeals to mitigate the consumption have failed miserably.

Oil is not only used for heating or fuelling a car's engine, however. It is a very valuable raw material for many everyday products, like e.g. all sorts of plastics, paints and lacquers, drugs, washing powders, detergents, fertilizers, and many more. It would be irresponsible to future human generations if our generations used up this limited resources within a short time.

75

Which alternative fuels can replace fossil fuels?

In search for global warming solutions, people are suddenly asking for alternative energies. However, more than 80% of our energy is currently taken from the fossil sources oil, gas or coal. It is absolutely impossible to supply this much of energy from alternative sources within the next 10 to 20 years.

Therefore, we should ask how much energy is really required to have a good quality of life, instead of taking our current energy consumption for granted or even indispensable. In a second step, we can then look for potential energy sources to fulfil this need.

As a lesson from history, we should at the same time strive to maximize the share of renewable energies (wind power, water power, solar power, wood, biomass, etc.) and on the other hand minimize over time the share of non-renewable energy sources like oil, 76

gas, coal and nuclear power. Otherwise our global warming solution will be just a pretentious one.

How much energy is required for a good life?

Scientific researches have shown that the quality of life is depending of the energy consumption up to a yearly energy consumption of 9'000 kWh per capita . This value equals the energy contained in about 1'000 litres of oil. If a person uses less energy per year, life gets more laborious. Above this limit however, life quality is in essence independent

of

the

energy consumption. For a good quality of life according to our current standards

in

industrialised nations, a minimum yearly energy requirement of 10'000 kWh seems therefore to be a realistic assumption.

The following table shows the energy consumption per capita for the year 2003 for some areas of the world. The values for 2006 are 12 to 15% higher.

A similar reduction of the yearly energy consumption to values in the order of 17'500 to 20'000 kWh per capita should therefore be possible for most countries of the world without really decreasing the quality of life. The following graph displays the energy consumption per capita for some industrialised countries for the year 2003. For the year 2006, the values would be about 12 to 15% higher on average.

77

Chart 1: Current energy consumption per capita by country for the year 2003. The target value of 18'000 kWh is the energy consumption for a good quality of life according to our current standards.

(Source of data: World Resource Institute wri.org.)

Demand has to follow available supply of (renewable) energy Up to now, any demand of energy has been satisfied. Anyone who has been willing to pay accordingly could and still can get any amount of energy. In this system, nobody has any interest in a mitigated energy consumption: By contrary, all commercial interests clearly speak for an increasing energy consumption. This has led to an ever increasing energy consumption and it has also led to ignoring or denying the problem of global warming for more than 20 years.

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Now, a change is urgently required in our energy policy: We must manage the natural resources on earth based on criteria of sustainability . The demand of energy has to follow the supply of renewable energy. This is the only way to implement a sustainable living, which is the base for a survival of human beings in the long run.

Mitigation of the demand for energy A reduction of the energy consumption per capita to less than 20'000 kWh per year as a global warming solution is a challenge for all industrialised countries (see chart above). Basically, there are two potential ways to achieve this goal: 

Reduction of the personal energy

consumption by free will on account of a higher consciousness of the population. 

Establishing

appropriate

commercial basic conditions within each

country

and

between

the

countries.

The first suggestion would be simple and fast to implement. However, for this to take place, many more people needed to seriously think about the meaning of life and about our relation to nature. Otherwise, decisions of mankind will continue to be guided by money and power instead of rationality or a higher consciousness .

79

Therefore, in the short and medium term, it will most likely be indispensable to establish the above mentioned basic conditions to force the required change. Suggestions for concrete implementations have been available already for a long time.

SOLUTIONS TO GLOBAL WARMING IN EUROPE Solutions to global warming pursued by the European region include binding national commitments to reduce emissions, the multi-national cap-and-trade program known as the

European

Union's

Emission Trading Scheme, and strong

supports

for

its

renewable energy and energy efficiency industries.

The

European

region,

encompassing 52 countries, bears

a

significant

responsibility for its historical contributions

to

global

warming pollution. This region is home to six of the top 20 annual global CO2 emitters, including Russia, which ranks third globally.

The

European

Region,

however, is also home to a robust renewable energy sector and

has

achieved

deep

renewable energy penetration. In 2009 alone, the deployment of renewable energy resources enabled the EU to reduce its CO2 emissions by about 7 percent against 1990 80

levels. Furthermore, nearly 20 percent of electricity in the EU in 2009 came from renewable sources. Many European countries appear to be on a path of reducing emissions and increasing efficiencies and renewable energy—given this region's historical and current emissions, these actions are urgently needed.

European Union Climate Commitments and Progress. In 2006, the European Union (EU), which consists of 27 members, committed to reducing its global warming emissions by at least 20 percent of 1990 levels by 2020, to consuming 20 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2020, and to reducing its primary energy use by 20 percent from projected levels through increased energy efficiency.1The EU has also committed to spending $375 billion a year to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050 compared to 1990 levels.2 The EU is meeting these goals through binding national commitments which vary depending on the unique situation of a given country 81

but which average out to the overall targets. Europe has also made important commitments to international climate finance to help developing countries transition to low-carbon energy sources, reduce tropical deforestation, and adapt to climate change.

One noteworthy example is Norway's commitment of $1 billion to compensate Brazil for its emissions reductions.

European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the world's first, and largest multi-national capand-trade program for reducing heat-trapping emissions. This program includes 27 countries and all large industrial facilities, including those that generate electricity, refine petroleum, and produce iron, steel, cement, glass, and paper.

The first phase of the EU ETS—from 2005 to 2007—drew criticism for not achieving substantial cuts in emissions, excessive allowance price volatility and for resulting in windfall profits for some utility firms that received carbon allowances for free but were able to pass through their full cost to consumers in the form of higher electricity prices.

These criticisms are valid. However, the EU viewed Phase 1 as a trial learning period. The extent to which Phase 2—which runs from 2008 to 2012—helps Europe fulfill its

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commitments under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce emissions will be a better test of the program.

Promoting Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. Europe is home to several powerhouses of renewable energy and energy efficiency. Norway, Austria, Portugal, Spain and Germany among others have had great success increasing the amount of renewable energy produced in their countries through the use of feed-in tariffs. Feed-in tariffs provide a specific, guaranteed price for electricity from renewable energy sources— typically over a 10-20-year period. These tariffs have led to a massive increase in the amount of renewable energy projects in these countries. Norway gets over 99 percent of its electricity from renewable sources, often producing more than it requires and exporting the energy to other countries. More than 16 nations in Europe produced 15 percent or more of their electricity from renewable sources in 2007.

Ocean scientists recommend plan to combat changes to seawater chemistry Global carbon dioxide emissions are triggering permanent changes to ocean chemistry along the North American West Coast that require immediate, decisive action to combat.

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That action includes development of a coordinated regional management strategy, concluded a panel of scientific experts including Andrew Dickson, a professor of marine chemistry at Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

A failure to adequately respond to this fundamental change in seawater chemistry, known as ocean acidification, is anticipated to have devastating ecological consequences for the West Coast in the decades to come, the 20-member West Coast Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia Science Panel warned in a comprehensive report unveiled April 4.

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"Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions from human activities are not just responsible for global climate change; these emissions also are being absorbed by the world's oceans,"."Our work is a catalyst for management actions that can address the impacts of ocean acidification we're seeing today and to get ahead of what's predicted as ocean chemistry continues to change."

Dickson said the regional focus of the report sets it apart from other analyses of the risks of ocean acidification that have traditionally considered the problem at either a local scale or global scale. The report is also significant in accounting for the complexity of the issue.

In particular, it recognizes the likely interactions between multiple simultaneous stresses acting on marine ecosystems, he said.

"This can be viewed at once a problem and a benefit," said Dickson. "The problem is there is no single fix for marine ecosystems; the benefit, that although reducing atmospheric CO2 levels may seem a distant goal, reducing stresses of any type, and especially local contamination that increases CO2 or reduces O2 levels, can benefit marine ecosystems

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and may help them to be more resilient to those stresses that remain, including the longer-term threat of anthropogenic ocean acidification."

The panel was convened in 2013 to explore how West Coast government agencies could work together with scientists to combat the effects of ocean acidification and a related phenomenon known as hypoxia, or low dissolved oxygen levels.

The panel is urging ocean management and natural resource agencies to develop highly coordinated, comprehensive multi-agency solutions, including:



Exploring approaches that involve the use of seagrass to remove carbon dioxide from seawater. Supporting wholesale revisions to water-quality criteria that are used as benchmarks for improving water quality, as existing water-quality criteria

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were not written to protect marine organisms from the damaging effects of ocean acidification. 

Identifying strategies for reducing the amounts of land-based pollution entering coastal waters, as this pollution can exacerbate the intensity of acidification in some locations.



Enhancing a West Coast-wide monitoring network that provides information toward development of coastal ecosystem management plans. Supporting approaches that enhance the adaptive capacity of marine organisms to cope with ocean acidification.



Although ocean acidification is a global problem that will require global solutions, the panel deliberately focused its recommendations around what West Coast ocean management and natural resource agencies can do collectively to combat the challenge at the regional level.

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The panel, which was convened for a three-year period that ended in February 2016, also has recommended the formation of a West Coast Science Task Force to continue to advance the scientific foundation for comprehensive, managerially relevant solutions to West Coast ocean acidification.

"Communities around the country are increasingly vulnerable to ocean acidification and long-term environmental changes," said NOAA Chief Scientist Richard Spinrad. "It is crucial that we comprehend how ocean chemistry is changing in different places, so we applaud the steps the West Coast Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia Science Panel has put forward in understanding and addressing this issue. We continue to look to the West Coast as a leader on understanding ocean acidification."

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