2.2. Natural Disasters and vulnerability

Climate changes and urban growth are two trends that force the world to consider the urban resilience to disasters in the coming years. It’s expected that there will be an extremely increase in the number of climate events in the coming years and that the population growth is causing vast clusters of people vulnerable to natural disasters. The global population is continuously getting more urbanized and many cities are located in coastal areas that are vulnerable to climatic events. As disasters strike in urban areas, where the concentration of perople and complexity of systems are, they lead to severe impacts, driving significant threats to technological systems and people in urban areas which is a major concern to urban planners and policymakers, thus disaster management considering implementing adaptation strategies and mitigation measures, building resilience, recovery and construction should be considered. Increasing urbanization, which entails the spatial concentration of people and infrastructure in relatively small areas, means increased and concentrated exposure of human and economic assets to various geophysical and hydro-meteorological environmental hazards. The geography of many major cities around the world—low-lying coastal or riverside locations—is another critical factor that increases the likelihood of severe natural disaster impacts in urban areas. As the trend of urbanization continues across the globe, disaster scholars increasingly pay attention to the specificity and uniqueness of urban hazard risk when evaluating regional disasters and hazard management approaches. There is broad consensus among urban disaster scholars that disaster risk is large and growing in urban areas and that it should be an integral part of urban planning and management in order to effectively and proactively mitigate disaster risk, thus reducing the ex-post recovery cost [Mitchell 1999; Bull-Kamanga, et al. 2003; Dilley, et al. 2005; and Lall and Deichmann 2012.]

2.2.1. Natural disasters in Egypt

Flash floods, earthquakes, droughts, landslides, and sandstorms are all common in Egypt. Temperature extremes, windstorms, and diseases have all occurred in recent decades. The southern end of the Gulf of Suez, the northern Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aqaba have the most seismic activity in Egypt. The deadliest natural catastrophe in the last two decades was the November 1994 flash floods in Upper Egypt, which killed 600 people and injured over 300 others while displacing over 140,000 people after destroying more than 20,000 homes and buildings. [Solyman and Abdel Monem, 2020]

Figure 25: Population statistics in the Middle East / Map credit: Aymen Solyman and Tarek Abdel Monem

2.2.2. Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Flash Floods in Alexandria

Alexandria is Egypt's second largest city, with the country's primary harbor and a significant industrial base that accounts for 40% of the country's industrial production. Furthermore, its shore hosts a plethora of summer tourist and cultural heritage attractions. Alexandria will be vulnerable to sea level rise, which will result in severe coastal erosion and floods, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and numerous research. Infrastructure, beaches, and cultural heritage sites will all be severely impacted.

Alexandria, like numerous other Arab towns, is completely unprepared for natural disasters. There are no preparedness measures in place that will increase adaptation and resilience. Rapid urbanisation and climate change have aggravated the problem even further. Local officials believe that some 30000 additional structures have been unlawfully erected near the main pumping station in the Al-Max neighborhood during the previous five years. This issue might have a significant negative impact on hydrology, and further research is needed to quantify the increased runoff from newly urbanized regions.

Alexandria may face severe coastal flooding as a result of climate change. The creation of a flood forecasting model, as well as evidence-based study on the capacity of the drainage system, are viewed as urgent initiatives that can considerably increase the city's readiness for floods. In addition, the region features a number of huge lakes that might be used to retain excess water as a flood-prevention technique. Two water bodies have been discovered, notably Maryout Lake and Airport Lake, from which water may be pumped out in advance to retain storage accessible in case of floods and to allow water to be used during dry seasons. Alexandria was hit hard by floods in October 2015. The flooding was produced by a tremendous quantity of rain in a short period of time in a city that does not ordinarily receive much rain. The severe rains resulted in a massive amount of runoff that the city's drainage system was unable to discharge to the Mediterranean Sea. The flood killed seven persons and caused massive direct and indirect damage. There is no flood forecasting system in place in the city. The excessive rainfall may have been predicted around a week ago, according to an examination of rainfall forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Flooding may have been foreseen long in advance if a flood forecasting model had been in place. [Characterisation of flooding in Alexandria; 2015]

Figure 26: Photo of Miami District in Alexandria during the flooding season / Image credit: anonymous

Figure 27: Photo Corniche of Alexandria during the flooding season / Image credit: Scoop Empire

Figure 28: Drivers maneuver through floodwater after a torrential rain in Alexandria, Egypt. / Image credit: Ibrahim Ramadan, Anadolu Agency, Getty Images

Ineffective political action related to flood disaster risk reduction, management deficiencies, public awareness, and a lack of money and stakeholder help are the most problematic issues that raise the risk of catastrophes in Arabian nations.

August should be peak tourist season on Egypt's Mediterranean coast. However, Alexandria's seaside restaurants are nearly empty. Many international visitors are staying away because of security concerns. But there's a deeper concern: that Egypt's prospects will worsen as the weather warms and the shoreline disappears.

Scientists believe that human-caused climate change – the result of greenhouse gas emissions from items like vehicles and industries – is raising sea levels and warming the oceans.

The Nile River delta, the triangle where the Nile extends out and flows into the sea, is being impacted by rising sea levels. It is here that Egypt grows the majority of its crops. According to the World Bank, Egypt is one of the nations most vulnerable to climate change because of its existing high poverty rates and quickly expanding population.

Alexandria is one of the UNESCO World Heritage sites in the Mediterranean that is vulnerable to coastal flooding and degradation owing to rising sea levels. Because of its location on the Mediterranean, the city is particularly vulnerable to increasing sea levels. Alexandria is one of Egypt's UNESCO World Heritage Sites that is at risk of flooding. Coastal erosion is thought to constitute a threat to all ancient monuments along Egypt's northern shore. By 2050, the flood danger in Alexandria is predicted to reach critical levels. “The water used to flood and cover the people and their cars, that’s why the government put up the barriers – to stop the high water so it won’t flood the street.” [Adel, a fisherman in Alexandria]

The government has built barriers all along the shoreline to protect against the increasingly severe winter storms. This area of the seashore lacks a beach. Years ago, the sand washed away.

Many scientists estimate a two-foot rise in sea level here by the end of the century. As salt water seeps through the masonry, some old structures are already disintegrating. Entire communities might be flooded. Alexandria's fortunes have risen and fallen with the tides for thousands of years. [In Egypt, A Rising Sea — And Growing Worries About Climate Change’s Effects : Parallels : NPR, 2019]

Figure 32: The Alexandria boardwalk is lined with concrete barriers to keep back rising waves. / Image credit: Jane Arraf/ NPR

Figure 33: A fisherman stands on what are believed to be remains of the ancient lighthouse of Alexandria — considered one of the Seven Wonders of the ancient world. / Image credit: Jane Arraf/NPR

Figure 34: A cement barrier placed as reinforcement against rising water levels near the citadel. b. The barriers and other protective measures along the shore of Alexandria. In this August 8, 2019, photo, workers prepare to place cement blocks to reinforce the sea wall against rising water levels on the corniche in Alexandria, Egypt. / Image credit: Sayed Hemeda