Manchester Monitor August 2013

Manchester Monitor August 2013

Encouraging signs for the labour market

Jobseeker numbers fall for fourth month in a row GM firms remain resilient Manchester Airport sees 20 million annual passengers GM housing market continues to struggle Ongoing fall in crime in GM www.neweconomymanchester.com research@neweconomymanchester.com

Monitor Focus Encouraging signs for labour market The latest Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) figures reveal

There was good news too for Manchester Airport, where

another solid decrease in claimants in Greater Manchester

annual passenger numbers hit 20 million for the first time

(GM), continuing the positive trend seen in recent months.

since 2009. Manchester Airport also experienced the fastest

Whilst there is no doubting that this remains a tricky period

growth rate of all of the UK’s major airports. Adding to the

for the labour market, GM is taking significant steps to

good news was the latest hotel data, which revealed

secure future jobs for the conurbation, that will in the long

occupancy levels in the city centre and GM in June 2013

term help to ensure that GM and its residents can benefit

had both increased on an annual basis.

from the economic recovery. GM’s recent Regional Growth Fund (RGF) success is evidence of that, with funding secured to support the growth of science enterprise and to help repatriate textile manufacturing back to the conurbation from abroad. Both projects will help to create thousands of local jobs at all skills levels.

The latest figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) show that 79,300 people were claiming JSA in GM in June 2013 – a decrease of 3,200 (3.8%) compared to the figure for May 2013 of 82,400. The North West (3.5%) and Great Britain (3.8%) also saw monthly decreases. As a proportion of the resident working-age population, 4.5% of people in GM were claiming JSA in June – which remains higher than the North West (4.0%) and Great Britain (3.5%) as a whole, highlighting the outstanding economic challenge. Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16– 24) in GM also declined between May and June, falling by approximately 960 to 20,655. Year-on-year, the number of youth JSA claimants is now 15.3% (3,725) lower than this time last year.

The latest English Business Survey (EBS) from the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) found that over the last 12 months businesses in GM have been largely resilient to the tough trading conditions, with the majority of businesses reporting that employment, labour costs and output prices were largely the same in Q1 2013 as in Q4 2012. GM Chamber’s latest Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) is also encouraging, finding that employment levels in GM have increased in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

1 | Manchester Monitor – August 2013

Crime continues to fall in GM, with the latest crime comparator data revealing that the number of offences committed per 1,000 of the population had fallen substantially in GM. The housing market, however, continues to struggle, with the latest data from the Land Registry showing further falls in GM house prices, by 2.1% for the year to June 2013, to an average price of £101,904. By contrast, England & Wales as a whole saw a small annual rise in house prices, while London continues to see strong annual growth. House sales in GM also continue to fall, declining by 10.5% on an annual basis, in stark contrast to both the North West and national picture where house sales rose by a similar amount.

Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants

Airport Passengers





5.3%

10.6%

since last year

since May 2012

Business Indicator (levels of output)

Hotel Occupancy





68% of firms reported that levels of output were either higher or remained the same in Q1 2013 compared to Q4 2012

House Prices

2%pts on June 2012

Crime Volume

Average house price in GM: £101,904



10% since June 2012

Manchester Monitor – August 2013 | 2

People Monitor Jobseeker numbers fall for fourth month in a row The latest figures (June 2013) show that 79,300 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM – a fall of 3,200 (3.8%) compared to the figure for May 2013 of 82,400, in line with the decrease in Great Britain and marginally better than the North West (3.5%). Though as a proportion of the resident working-age population, 4.5% of people in GM were claiming JSA in June, which remains higher than the North West (4.0%) and Great Britain (3.5%) as a whole, highlighting the outstanding economic challenge.

The number of male JSA claimants fell on a monthly basis

conurbation. Both projects will help to create thousands of

by 4.4% (2,415) to 52,873, while the number of female

local jobs at all skills levels. In addition, GM will also share a

claimants also fell by 2.7% (740) to 26,400. There was a

£50 million fund designed to reduce youth unemployment

year-on-year fall in male JSA claimants in GM of 4,546

in eight key regional cities. The money will go to firms that

(7.9%), but the number of female claimants remains 0.3%

employ a young person and will cover the cost of training

(83) higher than this time last year.

up new recruits and initial costs linked to recruiting staff.

These successes mean that GM is preparing itself for future

Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16–24) in GM declined on a monthly basis between May and June, falling

job growth, whilst the ongoing falls in JSA numbers are helping to fuel a more optimistic economic outlook.

by approximately 960 to 20,655. Year-on-year, the number of youth JSA claimants is now 15.3% (3,725) lower than this

Longer-term, underlying data at a UK level are beginning to

time last year.

signal that the economy may have turned a corner, with the latest GDP figures revealing the economy grew by 0.6% in

There was also a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM in June 2013 to 38,250, a monthly fall of 595 (1.5%).

the last quarter and revised Bank of England growth forecasts estimating growth of around 1.2% for 2013.

On an annual basis the number of long-term claimants is now 2.2% (875) lower than this time last year, though this

Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in June 2013

has not matched the annual falls seen in the North West (4.1%) and Great Britain (4.8%).

continuing the positive trend of recent months. However, it

79,273

remains a very tricky period for unemployment and the

Decreased by 5.3% year-on-year

These figures reveal another solid fall in claimant numbers,

labour market faces significant short-term challenges, especially as the school leaver and graduation period approaches.

Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change

h0.3%

$7.9%

$15.3%

Men

Youth

$2.2%

At a GM level, significant steps are being taken to secure future jobs for the conurbation, and whilst challenges will remain, in the long-term GM will be well placed to benefit from the economic recovery. GM’s recent Regional Growth Fund (RGF) bid wins are evidence of that, with funding secured to support the growth of science enterprise and to help repatriate textile manufacturing back to the

3 | Manchester Monitor – August 2013

Women

Long-term

Business Monitor Reported level of output by GM businesses compared to previous quarter 50% 45%

43% 41%

40%

39%

38%

37%

40%

38%

37%

35% 31% 29%

30%

30%

27%

25% 20%

21%

20% 15%

12%

10% 5% 0% Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Higher

Q2 2013*

The same

Lower

GM firms remain resilient The latest English Business Survey (EBS) from the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) found that over the last 12 months businesses in GM have been largely resilient to the tough trading conditions, with the majority of businesses reporting that employment, labour costs and output prices were largely the same in Q1 2013 as in Q4 2012. GM Chamber’s latest Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) is also encouraging, finding that employment levels in GM have increased in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

English Business Survey The EBS provides qualitative information across a range of variables (including output, capacity, employment, vacancies, prices, and investment) compared with three months ago plus expectations for three months ahead.

Results from the Q1 2013 EBS were released in June 2013.

In England as a whole the picture was relatively stable, with the majority of businesses reporting that employment, labour costs and output prices were largely the same in Q1 2013 as in Q4 2012.

A similar trend was evident in GM, where 68% of firms reported that levels of output were either higher or remained the same in Q1 2013 compared to Q4 2012. Looking to the future, 43% of GM firms expected output to be higher in Q2 2013 than Q1, while a further 40% expected output to be the same.

Employment levels in GM businesses were fairly stable according to the EBS, with 65% of those responding stating that the number of staff was the same in Q1 2013 as Q4 2012, a trend that businesses expected to continue in Q2 2013.

Turning to wages, 74% of GM firms said that the labour costs per person were the same in Q1 2013 as Q4 2012 and 17% said they were higher. This was similar to the national picture, where 73% of businesses reported consistent wage levels and 16% reported an increase. Two-thirds (67%) of GM firms expected wage costs to remain the same in Q2 2013, marginally higher than the 63% for England.

Quarterly Economic Survey GM Chamber’s Q2 QES showed an improvement in the balance of companies reporting an increase in employment in the last quarter for both manufacturing and services, with both up 3 percentage points to 13%. This is the strongest growth seen for 18 months and is only 2 percentage points lower than the pre-recession peak in Q3 2007.

Expectations for manufacturing employment in the coming quarter were also up, with the balance of GM companies expecting employment to rise up one percentage point to 18%, the strongest balance on record for the GM QES. However, employment expectations for services fell 3 percentage points from 19 in Q1 to 16 in Q2.

Manchester Monitor – August 2013 | 4

Place Monitor Manchester Airport sees 20 million annual passengers Annual passenger numbers at Manchester Airport have hit 20 million for the first time since 2009, with the airport also experiencing the fastest growth rate of all of the UK’s major airports. Adding to the good news was the latest hotel data, which revealed occupancy levels in the city centre and GM in June 2013 had both increased on an annual basis.

Airport Passenger Numbers Manchester Airport handled 1.9 million passengers in May 2013, compared to 1.7 million 12 months previously, an increase of 10.6% (182,293 additional passengers). The increase in numbers took Manchester Airport over the 20 million passenger mark over a 12 month period for the first time since May 2009. The good performance can be attributed to the continuing strength of long-haul destinations and the ‘Fly Manchester’ campaign.

The growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport is also higher than all of the other major UK airports, with Birmingham and the London airports at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted (now itself owned by Manchester) seeing passenger numbers grow by 7.2%, 4.7%, 7.9%, and 9.5% respectively between May 2012 and 2013.

All indications are that this growth will continue, with the launch of new routes, including Aegean’s service to Athens, Flybe’s service to Waterford in Ireland, and Egyptair’s new five-times a week service to Cairo.

Hotel Occupancy Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were recorded at 78% in June 2013, a rise of 1 percentage point on the same month last year. Weekend occupancy in the city centre averaged 84% during the month, up 2 percentage points on the June 2012 figure of 82%. The weekday average occupancy in the city centre was 76%, also up 2 percentage points since June 2012.

For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in June were 79%, a rise of 2 percentage points compared to the previous twelve months.

Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre during June were: • 8 June – occupancy of 99% was achieved, boosted by Bon Jovi and Rod Stewart playing in Manchester & theParklife festival in Heaton Park.

• 18 June – 99% occupancy was also recorded when Robbie Williams performed at the Ethiad Stadium & Lancashire played Scotland in a one-day cricket match.

Manchester also received a significant boost in visitor numbers this month thanks to the Manchester International Festival, which GM Chamber estimated to have attracted 250,000 visitors and generated up to £40m for the local economy.

Airport passenger numbers

(+10.6%)

Hotel occupancy (city centre)

1,900,527

78%

Flights

Hotel occupancy (GM)

(-2.8%)

14,994

79%

% represents year-on-year change

IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.

5 | Manchester Monitor – August 2013

(1% pt)

(+2% pts)

Housing Monitor GM Housing Market 140,000

7,000

120,000

6,000

100,000

5,000

80,000

4,000

House Sales 60,000

3,000

40,000

2,000

20,000

1,000

0

0 Apr-05

House Sales

Average House Price

House Prices

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

GM housing market continues to struggle The latest data from the Land Registry show further falls in GM house prices, by 2.1% (£2,215) for the year to June 2013, to an average price of £101,904. By contrast, England & Wales as a whole saw a small annual rise in house prices, with London continuing to see strong annual growth. House sales in GM also continue to fall, declining by 10.5% on an annual basis, in stark contrast to both the North West and national picture where house sales rose by a similar amount.

House Prices Property prices in England & Wales grew very marginally in June 2013, rising by 0.6% (£956), and now stand at £162,621, the highest figure since August 2012. House prices in London continue to see strong growth, rising by 3.1% (+£11,401) in June to £383,930.

In contrast, house prices in the North West saw a monthly decline of 1.2% (£1,367) between May and June 2013. On an annual basis house prices in the region fell by 2.7% (£2,994).

House prices in GM saw a slight monthly fall of 0.4% (£390) in June 2013 to £101,904. On an annual basis, house prices in GM have fallen 2.1% (£2,215). Across GM, only Manchester (1% or £967) and Trafford (0.2% or £319) saw house prices rise marginally between June 2012 and 2013.

The remaining eight districts all saw declines, with the largest

falls seen in Oldham (5.5% or £4,480), Salford (7.3% or £6,824), and Rochdale (7.5% or £6,790).

House sales Land Registry house sales data reveal that there were 1,958 properties sold in GM in April 2013, a monthly fall of 5.4% (111). This reflected the picture in the North West (9.7% or 568) and nationally (9.1% or 4,877), which also saw a monthly fall in house sales. However, on an annual basis, whilst house sales in GM have fallen by 10.5% (187), this is in stark contrast to both the North West and national picture, where house sales have risen 10.4% (498) and 11.8% (5,115) respectively.

Despite these trends, a recent national survey by the Halifax found that confidence in the property market has risen to its highest level in more than two years, with 52% of people expecting house prices to rise in the coming year.

Manchester Monitor – August 2013 | 6

Crime Monitor All Crime Offences per 1,000 Population, 2012-13

90.0

80.5 80.0 70.0

74.4

73.5 66.0

68.4

71.6 68.0

67.6

64.2 60.0

60.0 51.8 46.7

50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Greater Manchester

Merseyside

Northumbria

South Yorkshire

West Midlands

West Yorkshire

PoliceForce Year ending March 2012

Year ending March 2013

Ongoing fall in crime in GM Crime comparator data from Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) provide comparator information on crimes committed in GM with other similar constabulary areas in England and Wales. For the year ending March 2013 the number of offences committed per 1,000 of the population had fallen substantially in GM. Crime Comparator Data Crime comparator data shows that for the 12 months to March 2013 there were 66 offences committed in GM per 1,000 of the population.

Criminal damage and arson saw the biggest year-on-year fall of all victim-based crimes, with 28,773 offences for the 12 months to June 2013, down by 15.0% (5,046) on the 2012 figure.

Looking at similar forces in England and Wales, the figure is below that for West Yorkshire (71.6 offences) and South Yorkshire (68 offences) but above that of Merseyside (64.2 offences), the West Midlands (60.0 offences) and Northumbria (46.7 offences).

Crimes Solved GMP successfully solved 29.5% of all crimes for the year ending June 2013 – a slight decline of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months.

This is however part of a positive trend, with 8.4 fewer offences per 1,000 population in GM for the year ending March 2013. This is higher than any other comparable force apart from West Yorkshire (8.9) Crime Volumes Data released by GM Police (GMP) for the year ending June 2013 show that there were 178,972 reported crimes in GM – an annual decline of 10%, or almost 21,000 fewer offences.

Victim-based crime saw 160,259 cases recorded over the same period, a year-on-year fall of 8.0% (14,091 cases).

7 | Manchester Monitor – August 2013

In terms of victim-based crime (violence, sexual offences, criminal damage & arson, and stealing), 23.8% of cases were solved over the 12 months to June 2013, a marginal year-on-year fall of 0.9 percentage points.

GM Fire & Rescue Service Data Deliberate fires in GM were recorded at 8,934 for the 12 months to June 2013, compared to a figure of 9,020 for the previous year, an annual decline of 1.0% (86).

Primary fires, those where owned property is involved, were recorded at 5,068 for the year ending June 2013, a year-onyear fall of 11.1% (635).