Manchester Monitor November 2013

Manchester Monitor November 2013

Vacancies data boost recovery hopes

Vacancies on the rise Firms see sales boost Airport numbers continue to fly House prices continue to buck national trend GM sees ongoing fall in crime www.neweconomymanchester.com research@neweconomymanchester.com

Monitor Focus Vacancies data boost recovery hopes This month’s Manchester Monitor finds that the overall economic climate in Greater Manchester (GM) is continuing to improve, with a number of different datasets offering signs of encouragement. Nationally, the latest GDP data also point to an improving picture, showing that the economy grew 0.8% between July and September 2013. Whilst modest, this latest data builds on a 0.7% GDP rise between April and June 2013 and marks the best quarterly performance since 2010.

A particularly positive indicator for GM is the rising number of vacancies. The latest data from Labour Insight1 shows that there were 24,500 job openings in GM in September 2013, an increase of 12.0% on this time last year and 15.6% more than in August 2013. The highest number of vacancies were in professional occupations (6,900 or 28.0%), followed by associate professional and technical occupations (5,100 or 20.9%).

Another positive trend is the decline in Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants, with the latest figures from DWP showing a decline of 4,100 (5.4%) between August and September 2013 to 72,500, a faster improvement than either the North West (4.7%) or Great Britain (4.8%). Nevertheless, as a proportion of the resident working-age population, 4.1% of people in GM were claiming JSA in September, which remains higher than the North West (3.7%) and Great Britain (3.2%).

The Q3 2013 GM Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) gauges the opinion of more than 800 companies across GM. The latest results reveal a much more positive picture as we move towards the end of 2013, with the outlook for UK orders and deliveries much higher for the quarter in both the service and manufacturing sectors.

The QES found that the balance of GM service sector companies reporting improving UK sales figures was up 15 points on Q2 2013 to +27%, whilst the balance of GM manufacturing companies was up 14 points to +17%. The survey also revealed a broadly positive picture in relation to both export orders and sales across the two sectors.

1

Licensed from Burning Glass Technology

1 | Manchester Monitor – November 2013

The latest monthly airport data from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) reveal that Manchester Airport has now seen year-on-year rises in passenger numbers for 16 consecutive months. The Airport handled 2.36 million passengers in August 2013, 157,100 (7.1%) higher than 12 months previously. Month-on-month passenger numbers also increased by 4.2% (96,200), from 2.27 million in July 2013.

This trend looks set to continue, with the introduction of a multitude of new routes from spring 2014. This includes the introduction of a new a non-stop service between Toronto and Manchester five times a week from June 2014, a new non-stop service between Manchester and Charlotte, North Carolina from Spring 2014 and new routes to destinations including Naples in Italy, Agadir in Morocco, Hurghada in Egypt, and Enfidha in Tunisia and Vienna in Austria from Summer 2014.

In further good news for the conurbation, GM’s hotels continue to show high occupancy rates, boosted this month by a number of sporting events and conferences. Average hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were recorded at 80% in September 2013, whilst average occupancy rates in GM were 79%.

The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average house in GM cost £102,400 in September 2013, a decline of 1.1% (£1,200) when compared to September 2012. This contrasts with the national picture where house prices in England & Wales rose 3.4% (£5,500) between September 2012 and September 2013 to £167,000 – the highest price recorded since August 2008.

Crime comparator data from Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) provide comparator information on crimes committed in GM with other similar constabulary areas in England & Wales. For the year ending June 2013, the number of offences committed per 1,000 of the population fell substantially in GM to 65.6. This amounts to 6.4 fewer offences per 1000 of the population – a faster decline than any other comparable force.

Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants

Airport Passengers





14.6%

7.1%

since last year

since August 2012

UK Sales in GM Firms (Q3 2013)

Hotel Occupancy





The balance of GM service sector companies reporting improving UK sales figures is up 15 points on Q2 2013 to +27%. The balance of GM manufacturing companies reporting improving UK sales is up 14 points on Q2 to +17%.

House Prices

3%pts on September 2012

Crime Volume

Average house price in GM: £102,441



7.3% since September 2012

Manchester Monitor – November 2013 | 2

People Monitor GM vacancies on the rise.

The latest vacancies data from Labour insight reveals that there were 24,500 job openings in GM in September 2013, an increase of 12.0% on this time last year and 15.6% more than in August 2013. In addition, figures from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) show that the number of JSA claimants is also continuing to decline.

Vacancies Data The highest number of vacancies in GM were in professional occupations (6,900 or 28.0%), followed by associate professional & technical occupations (5,100 or 21.0%).

The majority of vacancies (just over 15,500) in GM in September were found in Manchester, followed by Stockport (1,800 vacancies) and Wigan (1,100 vacancies).

The top three detailed occupation types in September were nurses (800 vacancies), programmers & software development professionals (800 vacancies), and business sales executives (600 vacancies).

JSA Claimants The latest figures from DWP show that 72,500 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM in September 2013 – a decrease of 4,100 (5.4%) when compared with the figure for August 2013 of 76,600, faster than the declines in the North West (4.7%) and Great Britain (4.8%).

Nevertheless, as a proportion of the resident working-age population, 4.1% of people in GM were claiming JSA in September, which remains higher than the North West (3.7%) and Great Britain (3.2%).

Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in August 2013

The number of male JSA claimants fell on a monthly basis by 5.8% (2,900) to 47,200. The number of female claimants also fell slightly more slowly, by 4.7% (1,200) to 25,300. Yearon-year, there was a fall in male JSA claimants in GM of 9,300 (16.5%) but a slower decline in female claimants of 10.7%, 3,000 less than this time last year.

Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16–24) in GM decreased on a monthly basis between August and September, falling by 1,200 to 19,100. Year-on-year the number of youth JSA claimants declined by 23.5% and is now 5,900 lower than this time last year.

There was also a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimants in GM in September 2013 to 34,800, a monthly fall of 2,000 (5.4%). On an annual basis, the number of long-term claimants is now 8.8% (3,400) lower than this time last year.

The decline in the number of JSA claimants across all cohorts at a GM level was echoed at a North West and national level. However, whilst this is very positive news there remains much to do. Going forward, it will be crucial for GM to ensure that all of its residents have the necessary skills to access the jobs available and to enable them to access better quality jobs.

Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change

72,535 Decreased by 14.6% year-on-year

Vacancies - Annual Change Women

Men

Youth

Long-term

$10.7% $16.5% $23.5% $8.8%

12.0% 3 | Manchester Monitor – November 2013

Business Monitor UK Sales Figures in GM Firms

UK Services sector sales Q3 2013: +27%

40 30 20

Balance of firms

10 0 -10

UK manufacturing sector sales Q3 2013: +17%

-20 -30 -40 -50

Manufacturing

Q3-13

Q2-13

Q1-13

Q4-12

Q3-12

Q2-12

Q1-12

Q4-11

Q3-11

Q2-11

Q1-11

Q4-10

Q3-10

Q2-10

Q1-10

Q4-09

Q3-09

Q2-09

Q1-09

Q4-08

Q3-08

-60

Services

GM firms see sales boost The Q3 2013 GM Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey gauges the opinion of more than 800 companies across GM. The latest results reveal a much more positive picture as we move towards the end of 2013, with the outlook for UK orders and deliveries much higher in the quarter in both the service sector and in the manufacturing sector and a broadly positive picture in relation to both export orders and sales across the two sectors.

Services

Manufacturing

GM Chamber’s Q3 QES shows the balance of service sector companies reporting improving UK sales figures standing at +27%, its highest level since the QES began ten years ago.

The strong rise of 15 points from the previous quarter indicates a large increase in demand over the last three months. The strength of the service sector’s UK order book is also good, rising 13 points to 20.0%. This too is at its highest level for around ten years and only two points lower than its record in the first quarter of 2004.

Continuing the cause for optimism seen in the last quarter, the QES shows the wider sector building strongly in Q3, with the UK sales balance up 14 points to +17%, its highest postrecession figure and the highest figure since the last quarter of 2007. Orders have also increased this quarter, up 20 points to +18%, the strongest quarter-on-quarter increase on record.

Export sales in the service sector eased this quarter, with the balance falling four points from +17% in Q2 to +13% in Q3.

More positively, export orders continued to grow, rising two points from +13% Q2 to +15% in Q3 – the highest level since Q1 2007.

After a weakening in manufacturing exports sales towards the end of the 2012, there have now been three consecutive quarters of increasing international demand, with sales rising four points in Q3 to +21%. Export orders also rose sharply this quarter after a small weakening in their growth rate in Q2, jumping ten points from +9% in Q2 to +19% in Q3.

Manchester Monitor – November 2013 | 4

Place Monitor Airport numbers continue to fly The latest monthly airport data from the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) reveal that Manchester Airport has now seen yearon-year rises in passenger numbers for 16 consecutive months, a trend which is forecast to continue with the introduction of a multitude of new routes from spring 2014. In further good news for the conurbation, GM’s hotels continue to show high occupancy rates, boosted this month by a number of sporting events and conferences.

Airport Passenger Numbers Manchester Airport handled 2.37 million passengers in August 2013, 157,100 (7.1%) higher than 12 months previously. Month-on-month passenger numbers again increased, from 2.27 million in July 2013, a rise of 4.2% (96,200).

The annual growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport is also higher than all of the other major UK airports, with the exception of Heathrow, which was slightly higher at 7.7% between August 2012 and August 2013. Over the same annual period, Gatwick, Stansted and Birmingham saw passenger numbers grow by 5.0%, 3.1%, and 1.8% respectively.

The increase in passenger figures marks Manchester Airport’s sixteenth consecutive month of year-on-year growth, with performance boosted by the continuing ‘Fly Manchester’ campaigns, which ensure that the airport continues to attract more passengers from its catchment area.

The introduction of a multitude of new routes for spring/summer 2014 means that this growth looks set to continue well into 2014. Air Canada rouge recently announced the introduction of a non-stop service between Toronto and Manchester five times a week from June 2014.

In addition, US Airways has announced that from spring 2014 a new non-stop service will begin between Manchester and Charlotte, North Carolina. Monarch Airlines also announced four new routes for summer 2014 to Naples in

Airport passenger numbers

(+7.1%)

Italy, Agadir in Morocco, Hurghada in Egypt, and Enfidha in Tunisia. Jet2.com will serve three more city destinations for summer 2014, including Vienna, which will be the only direct service from the north of the UK to the city.

Hotel Occupancy Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were recorded at 80% in September 2013, slightly lower than the 82% recorded twelve months previously. Weekend occupancy in the city centre averaged 84% during the month, down two percentage points on the September 2012 figure of 82%. The weekday average occupancy in the city centre was 79%. This was the highest weekday average for 2013, boosted by mid-week sporting events and a number of conferences. Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre during September were: • 17 September – occupancy of 96% was achieved, boosted by the Manchester United–Bayer Leverkusen football match and a two day conference at Manchester Central • 25 September – 95% occupancy was recorded, boosted by the Manchester United–Liverpool Capital One Cup fixture and the British Cycling Elite & Paracycling National Track Championships event.

For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in September were 79%, just under the 2012 figure of 82%, which had been the highest recorded since 2006.

Hotel occupancy (city centre)

2,371,172

80%

Flights

Hotel occupancy (GM)

(+2.8%)

16,170

79%

% represents year-on-year change IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.

5 | Manchester Monitor – November 2013

(-2% pts)

(-3% pts)

Housing Monitor House prices 2008 - 2013 £180,000 £170,000 £160,000 England & Wales average house price: £167,100

£150,000 £140,000 £130,000

North West average house price: £110,000

£120,000 £110,000 £100,000

GM average house price: £102,400

£90,000 £80,000 September 2008

September 2009

September 2010 GM

September 2011

North West

September 2012

September 2013

England & Wales

GM house prices continue to buck national trend The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average house in GM cost £102,400 in September 2013, a decline of 1.1% (£1,200) when compared to September 2012. This compares with house prices at a national level, with prices in England & Wales rising 3.4% (£5,500) between September 2012 and 2013 to £167,100, the highest price recorded since August 2008.

House Prices Nationally, property prices in England & Wales rose by 1.5% (£2,400) in the month between August and September 2013 to £167,100, marking a sixth consecutive month of house price rises. On an annual basis, house prices grew by 3.4% (£5,500) nationally.

In the North West, house prices remained fairly static at £110,000 in September 2013, up 0.7% (£800) on the August 2013 average. On an annual basis, house prices in the North West also remained fairly flat, rising by 0.6% (£600) between September 2012 and 2013.

House prices in GM remained flat on a monthly basis, rising by 0.2% (£200) between August and September 2013 and currently standing at £102,400. On an annual basis, house prices in GM remain 1.1% (£1,200) lower than this time last year.

Across GM, only Trafford (3% or £5,500), Stockport (1.3% or £1,800) and Manchester (0.9% or £900) saw house prices rise between September 2012 and September 2013. The remaining seven districts all saw declines, with the largest

found in Rochdale (5.3% or £4,800), Wigan (4.6% or £4,200), and Tameside (3.9% or £3,600).

House sales Land Registry house sales data reveal that there were 2,600 properties sold in GM in July 2013, a monthly increase of 5.1% (100), albeit still much lower than the increases seen in the North West (7.5% or 500) and nationally (9.2% or 5,900).

On an annual basis, house sales in GM have risen by 28% (600), which is closer to the North West and national picture where house sales have risen 35.1% (1,900) and 30.8% (16,300) respectively on an annual basis.

At a national level, figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders recently showed that mortgage lending in September 2013 was up 41% from 2012, the largest increase in lending for five years. The growth in lending is fuelling the rise in house sales, with the Help to Buy scheme expected to inflate this further as it becomes fully operational from January 2014.

Manchester Monitor – November 2013 | 6

Crime Monitor All Crime Offences per 1,000 Population, 2012-2013 90.0 77.8

80.0 72.0 70.0

71.8

71.8 68.0

66.1 64.7

65.6

64.4 60.9

60.0 49.7 48.3

50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Greater Manchester

Merseyside

Northumbria

South Yorkshire

West Midlands

West Yorkshire

Police Force Year ending June 2012

Year ending June 2013

GM sees ongoing fall in crime Crime comparator data from Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) provide comparator information on crimes committed in GM with other similar constabulary areas in England & Wales. For the year ending June 2013 the number of offences committed per 1,000 of the population had fallen substantially in GM. Crime Comparator Data Crime comparator data shows that for the year ending June 2013 there were 65.6 offences committed in GM per 1,000 of the population.

fewer cases. Whilst most victim-based crimes continued to fall, the number of sexual offences rose by nearly 16% (400 cases) over the year, with nearly 3,100 crimes reported.

Looking at similar forces in England & Wales, the figure is below that for West Yorkshire (71.8) and South Yorkshire (68.0), though above that of Merseyside (64.7), the West Midlands (60.9), and Northumbria (48.3).

Crimes Solved

This should not however disguise the positive trend within GM, with 6.4 fewer offences per 1,000 population for the year ending June 2013, an improvement larger than any other comparable force.

Crime Volumes Data released by Greater Manchester Police (GMP) for the year ending September 2013 show that there were 178,800 reported crimes in GM – an annual decline of 7.3% or 14,000 fewer offences.

Victim-based crime (violence, sexual offences, criminal damage & arson, and stealing) saw 160,700 cases reported over the same period, a year-on-year fall of 5.1% or 8,700

7 | Manchester Monitor – November 2013

GMP successfully solved 28.8% of all crimes for the year ending September 2013 – a decline of 3 percentage points on the twelve months previously when 31.3% of crimes were solved.

In terms of victim-based crime, 23.4% of cases were solved over the 12 months to September 2013, a fall of 2 percentage points from 2012 when 25.0% of victim based crimes were solved.

GM Fire & Rescue Service Data Deliberate fires in GM were recorded at 9,500 for the 12 months to September 2013, compared to a figure of 8,100 for the previous year, an annual increase of 16.7% (1,300).

Primary fires, those where owned property is involved, were recorded at 5,100 for the year ending September 2013, a year-on-year fall of 6.9% (400).