Tracking Housing Data: What the Numbers Mean for 2025

By: Michele Lerner

Whether you’re a data fiend who loves to dive deeply into numbers or a people person who relies on statistics to support your market insights, reports from national, state, and local sources can provide valuable information to you and your clients. Interpreting the meaning of those numbers for your local market and your clients can add value to your services and help potential buyers and sellers develop a timeline for their transactions.

In 2024, the lack of inventory and persistently higher mortgage rates during the first half of the year had the biggest impact on housing markets in New Jersey. While sales slowed due to affordability issues and a lack of properties for sale, prices continued to rise due to high demand in most markets. As mortgage rates began to stabilize and decline in late summer and early fall, the pace of sales picked up.

In September 2024, closed sales were up 10% compared to September 2023, according to New Jersey Realtors® September Housing Market Data Report.

However, when looking at yearto-date numbers, closed sales were down 2.5% during the first nine months of 2024 compared to the first nine months of 2023.

Median sales prices were up 10.9% year-to-date in September 2024 compared to that period in 2023. Inventory was up 0.8% from the previous September, while new listings were up 5.4% when looking at year-to-date statistics.

New Jersey’s September 2024 statistics mirror the national market, with demand outpacing supply, which continues to put upward pressure on prices. The National Association of Realtors® reported a 4.0-month supply of homes, while New Jersey reported a 3.3-month supply of homes.

State and Local Stats to Follow

While Reginald “Reggie” Bouzy, a Realtor® with Coldwell Banker Realty in Jersey City and with team members in Princeton, Short Hills, and Robbinsville, tracks New Jersey Realtors® statewide statistics to understand market trends, he also reviews local market data.

“There’s a big difference between Jersey City, which is primarily a condo market, and Mercer County, which is primarily a single-family home market,” said Bouzy. “In Mercer County, the sales volume is low because there’s very little new construction and very low inventory. Homeowners aren’t willing to give up their low mortgage rate to buy another home.”

In contrast, Jersey City and nearby towns have higher sales volumes because of the availability of new condos.

“The buyers in Hoboken and Jersey City are either first-time buyers or move-up buyers who want to upgrade from a $300,000 condo to a $700,000 place,” said Bouzy. “They’re not in a mortgage prison because they know all their expenses are going up.”

In addition to tracking inventory, sales prices, and days on the market in his local markets, Bouzy relies on mortgage brokers who send him current mortgage rate information that can vary dramatically from national average mortgage rates.

The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will average 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, with an average rate of 5.8% anticipated for 2025 and 2026.

Hyper-Local Approach to Data

The dip in mortgage rates in late summer created a small increase in buyer demand in Montclair and nearby markets, but most state and national data doesn’t reflect what’s happening there, according to Ana Simon, a Realtor® with Brown Harris Stevens in Montclair.

“Our market is very specific and doesn’t even match up with New York City’s market, which is just 12 miles away,” said Simon. “Each town and county in Northern New Jersey is a little different.”

For Simon, that means tracking individual listings to see how many offers they receive, how long they take to go under contract, and how much the sales price is over the list price.

Simon also reviews all MLS data and monthly market statistics as a guideline for buyers and sellers.

One of the metrics Suzanne “Suzy” Minken, a Realtor® with Compass Real Estate in Short Hills, pays careful attention to is the sales-to-list price ratio.

“To identify trends, I look at year-to-date numbers compared to the previous year and then also compare the same period to 2019 for a pre-pandemic benchmark,” said Minken. “During the first nine months of 2024, the average sales-to-list price ratio has been over 100%. In other words, buyers are paying more than the asking price. In 2019 during that same period, the ratio was always below 100%, meaning buyers were negotiating for a lower price.”

Statewide, New Jersey Realtors® statistics show an average percent of list price received of 102.5% from January through September 2024, compared to 101.8% during that period in 2023.

“Inventory varies from one town to another, so I track listings and the sales-to-list price ratio by town in my region,” said Minken.

Minken also tracks days on market, but that metric has not increased over the past year due to low inventory and high demand.

National Sources to Supplement Market Knowledge

Sources such as Keeping Current Matters real estate blog and national market updates from real estate coaches Tom Ferry and Brian Buffini provide Nicholas “Nick” Christopher, a Realtor® with RE/ MAX Community in Williamstown, with inspiration to share with his database via social media.

“I take this information and put it into context for our local market,” said Christopher.

Otherwise, Christopher relies more on tracking his personal progress and his team’s progress toward their annual goals than on local market data.

“The lack of inventory has been a big constraint on sales this year, but prices have steadily increased,” said Christopher. “As mortgage rates have started going down, we’re seeing more activity, which could trigger bidding wars if too many buyers flood back into the market.”

What’s Ahead for New Jersey

Low inventory is likely to continue to plague Northern New Jersey, but Simon believes the housing market will be very active in early spring after the election and the holiday season.

“Unless mortgage rates drop even more and sellers see more value in moving, we’ll continue to see low inventory across Northern New Jersey,” said Simon. “But falling rates will motivate some sellers, so there will be a little more inventory. There’s not a lot of new construction in Montclair, so most listings are likely to have more than one interested buyer.”

Even if mortgage rates don’t drop significantly in 2025, Minken said stabilizing rates will have a positive impact on the New Jersey market.

“People react more to change than the rate itself,” said Minken. “The uncertainty about mortgage rates and their direction plays a bigger role in buyer confidence.”

Minken anticipates a larger pool of buyers in 2025 because many have been waiting on the sidelines to see what happens with rates.

“That will cause prices to go up and multiple offers unless rates drop enough to encourage more homeowners to sell,” said Minken.

Bouzy is optimistic about 2025.

“We’re turning the corner now that we’ve seen lower mortgage rates and the expectation is that rates will be lower going forward,” said Bouzy. “Affordability issues and the lack of inventory will linger, but we’re moving in the right direction.”