MoneyMarketing August 2020

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31 August 2020 | www.moneymarketing.co.za @MMMagza

First for the professional personal financial adviser

WHAT’S INSIDE

YOUR AUGUST ISSUE

KEEPING MOMENTUM DURING A CRISIS

TECH OPPORTUNITIES RISE IN THE EAST

It has been a tough couple of months for both financial advisers and their clients Page 6

China’s Alibaba has a lot in common with Amazon

Page 13

INVESTING IN GOLD THROUGH ETFS This year alone has seen the price of gold soar around 19%

Page 17

Pages 21-27

Ability of households to save will be limited

T

he ability of households to save will be limited. That’s the view of Izak Odendaal, Investment Analyst at Old Mutual Wealth, who was speaking at the release of the 2020 Old Mutual Savings & Investment Monitor. “When the COVID-19 virus arrived in South Africa, we were already on a very, very weak footing, and the pandemic just compounded a whole bunch of problems that will limit the ability of households to save,” he told the webinar. Odendaal believes that savings behaviour will play a big role in how the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. “This is the first time that the whole world has been in lockdown and the impact on economic activity has been absolutely staggering. While we’ve had several forecasts [as to how economies will recover], they should, at this stage, be treated with a pinch of salt because there is still so much uncertainty. If one looks at the direction of the forecasts, both for the world economy and for South Africa, one can see that the pandemic is unprecedented – in

fact, far worse than the global recession of 2008 and 2009. The good news is that I think the worst is over.” Most countries have emerged from lockdown, and even in SA economic activity has been resumed to a large extent – but the shape of the recovery has still not been determined. “I think a V-shaped recovery assumes that basically after a couple of months of people sitting at home watching Netflix, life just returns to normal and we just pick up where we left off, which seems a little bit unrealistic. In terms of a U-shaped scenario, the main thing to take into account is how consumer behaviour has changed. How ready are people to go out and do the things they did before the pandemic? How comfortable are people to go to restaurants, or to packed bars or busy nightclubs? Are people prepared to get into a plane to fly off on holiday? So far, the evidence suggest that some people are willing to do all of this, while some people are unprepared. How this plays out will be a key determinant in how quickly

Women’s month

economic activity rebounds.” Odendaal again emphasised the importance of savings behaviour. “We have data from advanced economies, including the US, where we’ve seen a massive spike in savings levels. This is largely because people weren’t able to spend. They were working from home and still earning an income, but unable to go out and spend it.” As a result, savings rates increased massively. “In the case of the US, the savings rate went up to more than 30% of disposable income, and a record $2tn ended up in people’s bank accounts not having been spent – that is what we call involuntary savings. However, you would expect this to decline as life returns to normal and as people get more opportunity to

spend their income – but there is also a strong chance that savings levels will remain elevated, even as life slowly returns to normal.” Odendaal added that people may decide to set up buffers against a future shock should more pandemics occur – and even if the savings rate declines, it may remain elevated. When households increase their savings in response to economic distress, they are obviously behaving in an appropriate manner. However, if all households do this at the same time, it becomes a drag on economic recovery because there’s more savings and less spending. “This could be an interesting element to watch going forward in order to gauge how the economy recovers both globally and also in SA.” Another determinant of economic recovery will be policy support. “The policy response we’ve seen has been out of the ordinary on the fiscal side where it relates to government spending and government tax policy. Continued on page 3

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MoneyMarketing August 2020 by New Media B2B - Issuu