30 June 2020 | www.moneymarketing.co.za @MMMagza
First for the professional personal financial adviser
WHAT’S INSIDE
YOUR JUNE ISSUE
MoneyMarketing's guide to investing offshore in volatile times
Page 11
ATTRACTED TO THE COMFORT OF CASH?
WHAT COVID-19 MEANS FOR D&O INSURANCE
There may be better options to consider
The impact of COVID-19 has struck some sectors particularly heavily
Page 21
Page 27
A new world on the horizon
T
Michael Power, Global Strategist, Ninety One
here is no ‘normal’ any longer, according to eminent futurist and Ninety One’s Global Strategist, Michael Power. “We’re in a fluid environment and there’s nothing very much we can take for granted anymore,” he recently told intermediaries. “Part of my job is to think long term, but I’m not sure what long term is any longer. Things that I thought were, for instance, going to happen by 2030, are now probably in many instances going to happen by 2025, or possibly even before. But long term is something that is affecting portfolios now, which is why our portfolio managers have to really be on their toes at the moment.” Power explains, in the words of historian Yuval Harari, that emergencies fast forward historical processes – and the COVID-19 pandemic is doing exactly this. There were trends in place before the pandemic that were expected to play out in the next 10 years, but he now expects these changes to unfold over the next three to five years.
Asian economies appear to be recovering strongly from the coronavirus pandemic, in contrast to the West – and one of the processes that is being fast forwarded is the one that shifts the centre of gravity away from the West to the East, making China a larger economy than the United States by 2023. Power believes it’s essential that investors study opportunities available beyond the old world, “because the new world is going to come into focus much quicker than I was predicting, and I think this is something that will drive us at Ninety One during the next five years. Thankfully, we’re ahead of the game as we have heavy-duty exposure into these areas, both in fixed-income and in equities.” Power believes that macroeconomics in the West have been largely ‘nationalised’ and there’s little difference now between fiscal and monetary policies, with central banks no longer truly independent. Modern Monetary Theory – meaning that sovereign governments with sovereign currencies can ‘print’
money for society’s benefit – is being applied everywhere, with the Bank of England being the most extreme. Budget deficits are no longer an issue. “We started the year with the probability that the United States was going to run a budget deficit of about $1.2tn – but that’s been reached already. ‘Whatever it takes’ is now the order of the day.” He thinks that whoever is elected as president of the United States in November this year will preside over the loss of primacy of being the largest economy in the world. “In this process of change, capital will start to leave the West and move to the East.” Some of that capital is probably going to be what Power calls “a bridge between the two worlds”. Continued on page 3
Your hunt for USD Yield ends in Africa The Laurium Africa USD Bond Prescient Fund offers competitive USD yields. Government backed, moderate volatility, well diversified, 10% Africa allowance approved.
COMPETITIVE USD YIELDS
Visit www.lauriumcapital.com to find out more.
We know Investments T +27 11 263 7700 E laurium@lauriumcapital.com www.lauriumcapital.com
Laurium is an authorised financial services provider (FSP No 34142). Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) should be considered as medium to long-term investments. The value may go up as well as down and past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. CIS’s are traded at the ruling price and can engage in scrip lending and borrowing. A schedule of fees, charges and maximum commissions is available on request from the Manager. There is no guarantee in respect of capital or returns in a portfolio. A CIS may be closed to new investors in order for it to be managed more efficiently in accordance with its mandate. CIS prices are calculated on a net asset basis, which is the total value of all the assets in the portfolio including any income accruals and less any permissible deductions (brokerage, STT, VAT, auditor’s fees, bank charges, trustee and custodian fees and the annual management fee) from the portfolio divided by the number of participatory interests (units) in issue. Forward pricing is used.Prescient Management Company (RF) (Pty) Ltd is registered and approved under the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act (No.45 of 2002). For any additional information such as fund prices, fees, brochures, minimum disclosure documents and application forms please go to www.lauriumcapital.com.