GEOPOLITICS E-MAG JUNE-2020 by newsline6

ATTRACTING FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN DEFENCE Vol XI, Issue I, JUNE 2020 n `100

DEFENCE n DIPLOMACY n SECURITY www.geopolitics.in

BATTLE

CRIES?

There is everything in favour of India and China to de-escalate their military standoff in Ladakh and for this both have to give up the usual bogey of "perceptual differences" on the Line of Actual ControlÂ

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EDITORIAL

K SRINIVASAN

Return the favour n a recent piece, The Caravan commenting on the faceI“The off in Ladakh between Indian and Chinese forces said: ongoing border dispute between India and China,

following incursions by the People’s Liberation Army into regions in Ladakh and Sikkim in early May, marked the third major transgression in four years by the Chinese armed forces without facing significant pushback from the Narendra Modi government. While the Indian Army has deployed additional troops in response, one such faceoff with the PLA, in the Bhutanese territory of Doklam in 2017, had led to a shift in the status quo in China’s favour. Since then, the Indian government has also ignored several incursions into Arunachal Pradesh, according to a parliamentarian and local politicians. In fact, the Modi administration routinely issued formal responses, but a closer scrutiny raises questions about whether India has adopted a policy of silence about China’s transgressions along the border.” While The Caravan is a usual suspect because of its hard questioning not much appreciated by the present dispensation, there is much truth in what they are saying. There is simply no doubting that on most occasions we have been at the receiving end of the insatiable Chinese appetite to grab land. As a colleague recently commented during a conversation on the Ladakh faceoff: “Why is it that we are always at the receiving end and trying to push the Chinese back? Why is it that it never happens that the Chinese are trying to push us back.” In fact, this land grab was outlined in detail by the former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran. During his tenure as the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy and National Security Advisory Board Chairman, he carried out multiple detailed surveys of the country’s border infrastructure. In one report, Saran states that the PLA troops came in as deep as 18-19 kilometres into Indian territory and the

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country lost close, to 640 sq km of land thanks to “area denial” by the PLA patrol. That was in 2013. Of course, then Defence Ministry A K Anthony vociferously denied it. In a more recent interview to The Times of India, Saran said: “The frequency of such incidents has been increasing because significant improvements in border infrastructure on both sides have enabled more regular patrolling of hitherto remote areas. The subsequent incident in the Galwan river area in Ladakh is more worrying because our forces have been active in this area, including in undertaking road building, without Chinese objection in the past. Reacting to such activity on our side of the LAC with a build-up of forces and, in effect, expanding its territorial claim, is escalatory behaviour.” More recently in November, the BJP MP from Arunachal East constituency, Tapir Gao said that “today, China has occupied more than fifty–sixty kilometres of Indian territory”. Quoting this incident, The Caravan said: “But India had formally denied any incursion, attributing it to ‘differing perceptions of the Line of Actual Control’.” Speaking in the context of the latest incursion in Ladakh and Sikkim, Gao (said) that China has continuously led construction activity within Indian territory since 2018. “They are going on occupying land,” he said. “Why didn’t we resist till now?” Why haven’t we resisted and why haven’t we returned the favour? Two questions that need some answers.

srini@newsline.in

June 2020

CONTENTS

COVER STORY NUCLEAR ‘CHINDIA’ RISING OR UNBOUND? 18 Indian armed forces' warfighting support system and infrastructure must be ready for the worst. Agreeing to “adjustment” of current Chinese positions “as is where is” will hand over critical strategic space to China.

COVER STORY

India’s weak border defence provokes China

24 Dealing with China

China is systematically grabbing land in Ladakh by exploiting its Consistency has never been a virtue for the communist rulers of topographical features. New Delhi leaving the region under the China in settling their border disputes with neighbours. Using difadministrative control of J&K have weakened border defences. ferent principles for different countries have led to the bottleneck.

COVER STORY

New Delhi is doing little

SPOTLIGHT

40 A likely gamble

What India will actually do, owing to a long habit of slavish thinking The latest decision to raise the FDI cap in defence is fine but unacand a self-abnegatory mindset, is that it will continue doing what it companied by land and labour reforms, the environment will not be attractive enough to entice foreign and Indian investors. is doing- trying to please Beijing and Washington.

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

CONTENTS

SPECIAL FEATURE

UNIFORMED SAVIOURS OF HUMANITY

(14)

The large-scale mobilisation of Indian troops and their exemplary contribution towards handling COVID-19 have made the country proud. The men and women in uniform have proved their mettle.

SPECIAL REPORT

GLOBAL WATCH

TRACKED METAL BEASTS OF THE INDIAN ARMY (46)

A POST COVID-19 WORLD ORDER (58)

With more than 4500 Main Battle Tanks divided into 67 armoured regiments, the Indian Army has one of the largest tank fleets in the world. But modernisation is still a work in progress. EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

PERISCOPE A boost for self-reliance and space

K SRINIVASAN EDITOR

PRAKASH NANDA

MANAGING EDITOR

PANORAMA The Rafales are arriving!

TIRTHANKAR GHOSH

DEFBIZ Vivek Lall joins General Atomics

Collins: The ejection seat saga

CONSULTING EDITOR

M MURLIDHARAN S. VASANTHAKRISHNAN SUB-EDITOR-CUM-REPORTER

AMARTYA SINHA

SENIOR PROOF READER

RAJESH VAID

FOCUS Embraer KC-390 Millennium

50 62

VOL XI, ISSUE I, June 2020 DIRECTOR

RAJIV SINGH PUBLISHING DIRECTOR

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DESIGNER

MOHIT KANSAL

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PHOTO EDITOR

For editorial inputs: geopolitics@newsline.in

H C TIWARI

RIGHT ANGLE Nepal’s cartographic war

Globally we are going to see a push towards greater investment in healthcare and a reduction in defence spending. The virtual world will also grow exponentially with rigorous digitalisation.

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All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Archna Printers D-127, Okhla Indl Area Ph-1, New Delhi -110020, Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in www.geopolitics.in

June 2020

AttrActINg ForEIgN INVEstmENt IN DEFENcE Vol XI, Issue I, JUNE 2020 n `100

DEFENcE n DIplomAcy n sEcUrIty www.geopolitics.in

BATTLE

CRIES?

Cover Design: Mohit Kansal The total number of pages in this issue is 64



LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

‘B

COVER STORY

THE SPACE MISSION OF A BILLION INDIAN DREAMS

reaking the enemy’s armoured jaws’ (Geopolitics, May 2020) was an interesting read. It clearly portrays the existing ATGM (anti-tank guided missile) capability of the Indian Army in a positive light. But the writer could have focussed a bit more on futuristic technologies in this domain. European giant MBDA has recently setup a joint venture (JV) with India’s Larsen and Toubro for manufacturing a fifth-generation ATGM in India. The JV is offering opportunities under the ‘Buy (Indian-IDDM)’, ‘Buy (Indian)’, ‘Buy & Make (Indian)’, and ‘Make’ categories of defence procurement. The new weapon’s prototype was showcased at DefExpo-2018 in Chennai as ‘ATGM-5’. It is supposed to be configured for launch from ground-based and aerial platforms. A 10-km long-range version of the missile is also being planned. More, India’s DRDO and BDL should also mass produce and operationalise the MPATGM at the earliest. The day shouldn’t be far when armour plates of hostile tanks and APCs are ripped-off using Indian-made weapons. Paramita Brahmachari, Kolkata

BREAKING THE ENEMY’S

ARMOURED JAWS 12

May 2020 www.geopolitics.in

‘T

he space mission of a billion Indian dreams’ (Geopolitics, May 2020) was an informative article. It explains the background of India’s manned space mission (Gaganyaan) and projects a bright future. It was good to know about the very crucial aspects of job creation, employment generation and MSME welfare related to Gaganyaan. The nonchalance shown by the erstwhile UPA government towards allocation of funds for the initiation of this project is very unfortunate. But due to efforts of the visionary NDA government, ISRO could march forward with such ambitious plans. A special mention of Vyommitra, the female humanoid built by ISRO for the test flights of Gaganyaan mission was missing in this article. Moreover, as the nation is badly affected by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it will be wise for the government to postpone the mission to 2024 and reallocate resources to priority areas instead. Many scientists are also in favour of multilateral collaborations to carry out money-guzzling projects. Shreshtha Sarbadhyaksha Jalpaiguri All correspondence may be addressed to: The Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin East, New Delhi-110013. Or mail to: geopolitics@newsline.in

SPOTLIGHT

DEFBIZ

FOCUS

CORONA AND BIO-WEAPONS

‘WE HAVE TWO FACTORIES TO HANDLE THE PRODUCTION OF MINE PROTECTED VEHICLES’ The revamped MPV is a superbly built worldclass product and everyone is proud of it. It will prove to be a feather in the cap for all users. The cutting-edge vehicle is a symbol of India’s technological prowess in the third decade of 21st century, says DEVENDRA BHARDWAJ, Deputy General Manager, Ordnance Factory Medak in this interview with AMARTYA SINHA The newly launched MPV seems to be a brand-new product from the Ordnance Factory Board portfolio. How will it help the Indian Army and paramilitary forces? Actually, this is a very rugged Mine Protected Vehicle (MPV). The platform is not brand new as it has already been in service since the last 10 years. These vehicles are very much useful for mobilising forces in the insurgencyaffected areas like Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand and Northeast. Maoists often plant mines and high-explosive charges beneath the roads and fire on moving troops during an ambush which puts the lives of soldiers at risk. Our revamped MPV can carry a total of 10 personnel in a 5+5 seating arrangement in any mission area. It is well protected from all sides from high energy explosions and highcalibre bullets.

As far as the features of the vehicle are concerned (armouring, wheelbase, etc), how robust is it?

The MPV can withstand a blast of 10 kg of TNT from beneath. The armour is so strong that it can sustain explosions from 5-metres range. The armour plates easily withstand hits from 7.62 mm gun

rounds. The vehicle can also be equipped with several weapons including a roofmounted light/medium machine gun. The MMG port at the top can rotate 360 degrees thus giving the gunner total flexibility in shooting down enemy troops and terrorists. From mobility point of view, the MPV has a 220-horsepower diesel engine and a 4WD (four-wheel drive) system. Armed with a power steering and automatic transmission. The steering controls have the options of both left-hand drive and right-hand drive as per the user’s requirements. Above all this, we have also developed a preventive threat analysis mechanism. We have started a concept design for the integration of a drone with the MPV. The drone will do the route surveillance and transmit all data to the MPV and control stations in realtime. So, the threat potential of the route to be taken by the MPV will be pre-empted beforehand. So, depending on the analysis, the commander and soldiers can decide which route they would like to follow. Everything will be based on Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning models which we are building. Moreover, we will be having additional

May 2020

sensors like optical sensors and infrared sensors along with some radar sensors. So, whenever the UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) will identify any threat signature, the AI programme will run and the drone will come down towards the ground for scanning the likely threat. So, if any landmine or IED is laid, the UAV will alert the crew and control stations and will give a 360-degree view and general awareness of the affected area. So, if any unprecedented threats are detected, those dangers can be handled very smartly.

Recently, it has been observed in Jammu & Kashmir that Pakistan-sponsored Islamic terrorists are using steel-core bullets and armour-piercing match (APM) rounds for martyring our Indian Army soldiers. Can the armour of the revamped MPV protect the occupants from such highly penetrating bullets?

Graphic render of a Covid-19 cell

As I have stated before, the armour can easily sustain 7.62mm rounds. But if the user needs more protection, we are having the facility to give add-on armour. So, we can provide any range of protection as required by the soldiers. But protection comes with some compromise with the mobility. Because, adding extra

SCMP

As the Covid-19 pandemic has infected its way through human populations around the globe, it has reminded the world about the dangerous presence of biological weapons and horrific prospects of biological wars, argues PRAKASH NANDA

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‘W

May 2020

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‘C

e have two factories to handle the production of Mine Protected Vehicles’ (Geopolitics, May 2020) was an eyeopener for everyone. The newly launched revamped MPV of OFB will prove to be a boon in transportation of paramilitary and police personnel in insurgency-hit areas. It seems that the new vehicle will give touch competition to other products of the same class like Kalyani Maverick and Kalyani M4. DSIL’s Zebu armoured vehicle is another product of the same category. These vehicles should go a long way in realising the Prime Minister’s dream of a self-reliant India. It is high-time that the union government incentivises R&D in armouring technologies. Credible efforts also need to be made towards improving the fuel-efficiency of MPVs. The government should enforce mandatory rules for the Indian Army and paramilitary forces so that all APCs and MPVs are acquired from Indian companies, thus barring all kinds of foreign imports of such products.

orona and bio-weapons’ (Geopolitics, May 2020) was a very enlightening writeup. As of June 11, 2020, more than 74,60,415 people across the world have tested positive with COVID-19 infection out of which 4,19,049 patients have passed away. Large parts of the world are still under some kind of lockdown which is affecting the livelihood of billions. In India, the COVID-19 graph would have been flattened by now if Tablighi Jamaat’s Markaz event wouldn’t have been held in Delhi. There is not even an iota of doubt that the event should be treated as an act of biological terrorism and strict legal action must be initiated against the Islamic perpetrators. Moreover, as the virus has its origins at Wuhan, stringent action needs to be initiated against the Chinese government for paralysing the global economy. Responsible powers like the US, Russia, China, UK, EU and India should explore the option of enforcing a 5-year trade embargo on China as a punitive measure.

Dr Rohit Keshav Shrivastava, Bhopal

Vishal Asarpota, Mumbai

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

PERISCOPE

A BOOST FOR SELF-RELIANCE AND SPACE Chandrayaan-2 spacecraft’s Vikram lander and Pragyan rover

Replacing import quantity with indigenous production

Will notify a list of weapons/platforms for a ban on import with timelines. budget provision for domestic capital to facilitate production of those items domestically. initiatives to promote indigenisation of imported spares like realistic setting of General Staff Qualitative Requirements (GSQRs) of weapons/platforms.

Ordnance Factory corporatised

Board(OFB)

Corporatisation of OFB to performance and efficiency.

Easing FDI norms

improve

FDI limit in the defence manufacturing

under automatic route is being raised from 49 percent to 74 percent.

Time-bound process

Time-bound defence procurement process and faster decision making will be ushered in by: • Setting up of a Project Management Unit to support contract management • Realistic setting of General Staff Qualitative Requirements of weapons/platforms • Overhauling trial and testing procedures

Reforms to script new stories in space

Building on India’s global reputation in space, a new set of reform measures has paved the way to make the private sector also a part of this journey. Highlights • The private sector can use ISRO facilities and other relevant assets to improve their capacities. • Future projects for planetary exploration, outer space travel etc to be open for the private sector as well.

ISRO

he Narendra Modi government on May-16 announced a slew of measures to promote indigenisation of defence production under the “Make in India" programme including raising the foreign direct investment caps through the automatic route. The Highlights

•

Liberal geospatial data policy for providing remote-sensing data to tech-entrepreneurs and reducing reliance on imported data. Reforming space sector organisations to provide a predictable policy and regulatory environment to private players.

Reforms in atomic energy

Paving the way for private participation in atomic energy has also opened new areas of opportunities • Establishing nuclear research reactor in PPP mode for the production of medical isotopes helps in finding affordable treatment for cancer and other diseases. • Using nuclear irradiation technology for food preservation complements agricultural reforms and assists farmers. This, along with reforms announced in agriculture, further helps by increasing shelf life, reducing the need for pesticides, and increasing export avenues. • India’s robust start-up ecosystem will be linked to the nuclear sector and for this, technology development-cumincubation centres will be set up for fostering synergy between research facilities and tech-entrepreneurs. In shaping the post-Coronavirus world, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has brought together talents beyond the governmental system in sophisticated sectors like defence, space, and atomic energy to use them for the greater common good.

MAHINDRAARMORED.COM

Indigenously developed Mahindra’s ‘MEVA Straton Plus’ armoured personnel carrier

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June 2020

PANORAMA

THE

RAFALES ARE ARRIVING!

PIB

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

PANORAMA

rance has officially said that it will deliver Dassault Rafale fighter jets to the Indian Air Force on time despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. This was communicated to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh by his French counterpart Florence Parly during a phone call on June 2, 2020. “France reaffirmed its commitment to ensure timely delivery of Rafale aircrafts despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic,” the defence ministry said in a statement after the two ministers spoke. The IAF is likely to get the delivery of the first batch of four Rafale fighters from France by July-end. The four fighters were supposed to fly to their home base in India in May 2020, but the plan was delayed due to the Coronavirus outbreak. Confinement measures announced by France to battle the outbreak had temporarily halted production at aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation’s Merignac facility. The history of the MMRCA (Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft) deal under which the Dassault Rafale was eventually chosen, dates back to 2001 when the IAF projected a requirement to buy 126 new aircraft for managing the depleting number of squadrons. The original MMRCA deal was scrapped by the NDA-2 government in 2015 and an off-the-shelf contract worth Rs. 59,000 crores for 36 Rafales was inked in September, 2016 as an emergency purchase to arrest the worrying slide in the IAF’s combat capabilities. Reliance Defence has created a joint venture with Dassault Aviation, which currently manufactures components for Rafale fighters as a part of the offset agreement. France handed over to India its first Rafale fighter during a ceremony attended by Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh and French Defence Minister Florence Parly in Merignac on October 8, 2019, which coincided with the IAF’s 87th founding day and the festival of Dussehra. According to the delivery schedule, the first 18 jets (including the four in the first batch) are supposed to be delivered to the Indian Air Force by February 2021, with the rest expected by April-May 2022. The first Rafale squadron will be based at Ambala Air Force station in Haryana and the first four Rafales be inducted at the same base. The Rafales will be operated by Number-17 squadron of the IAF which has operated Harvard-II B, de Havilland Vampire, Hawker Hunter and MiG-21 aircraft in the past. The second Rafale squadron will be based at Hasimara Air Force station in West Bengal and will be operated by Number-101 squadron of IAF. The No-101 was earlier based at Naliya in Gujarat and has operated Spitfire and MiG-21 fighters in the past. The No-101 squadron will replace the now defunct Number-22 squadron at Hasimara which used to operate MiG-27s till very recently. The Hasimara base is strategically located in Alipurduar district in North Bengal, which is near the India-China border and the India-China-Bhutan trijunction. The base has also played a critical role in launching combat sorties against ground targets deep inside East Pakistan during the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971. The Dassault Rafale is known for its speed, weapons holding capacity and ground attack capabilities. The plane is powered by two SNECMA M88 turbofan engines. These powerplants help it to attain a high speed of 1,912 km per hour and has a range of more than 3,700 km. The fighters are equipped with the AESA radar, SPECTRA Electronic Warfare System and IRST system, and has been categorised as 4.5+ generation fighter. It also has the capability to deliver nuclear weapons. For India, the aircraft will also have the Meteor air-to-air missile, which can shoot down an enemy aircraft over 100 km away without crossing into hostile airspace. The jet is also armed with 1,300 kg, Scalp long-range air-to-ground stand-off cruise missiles, which has the capability to strike almost 600 km deep into enemy territory. Other India specific enhancements include radar warning receivers, low band jammers, 10-hour flight data recording along with infrared search and tracking systems. The 36 Rafale purchase-contract signed by India and France has a provision which states that India may import 36 additional Dassault Rafale fighters in the near future without any price escalation. As per Ministry of Defence sources, this add-on deal is being seriously considered by the government. Last but not the least, the ongoing deal to purchase 114 medium multirole combat jets is also very much on the cards which may witness the Rafale emerging as a winning contender once again.

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June 2020

RAFALE

SPOTLIGHT

A LIKELY GAMBLE The latest announcement to raise the FDI cap in Defence is fine, but unaccompanied by the fast tracking comprehensive reforms within the country in the areas of land, labour, infrastructure and governance, the environment will not be attractive enough to entice foreign and Indian investors, warns AMIT COWSHISH

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inspecting the K-9 Vajra-T artillery gun at L&T Armoured System Complex, in Hazira on January 16, 2020

PIB

he cap on foreign direct investment (FDI) in defence manufacturing is all set to go up to 74 per cent. This was announced by the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on May 16, 2020 as a part of the wider reforms package for eight sectors. Though not specially mentioned by her, foreign investment beyond 74 per cent will most likely continue to require the government’s permission. The decision to raise the FDI cap has taken many by surprise. It may be recalled that in 2013 the

then commerce and industry minister in 2013 had proposed to raise the cap to 74 per cent, but the ministry of defence (MoD) opposed it on the grounds that this will hamper the growth of the Indian industry. Even the NDA government found it expedient not to raise the cap beyond 49 per cent while amending the FDI policy on a couple of occasions after assuming power in 2014. The Indian industry was anyway never too warm to the idea. It seems unlikely that the MoD and the industry have had a change of heart. The reform package announced

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

on May 16 also includes some other measures like corporatisation of the ordnance factories board, creating a negative list of importable defence items and providing a separate budget for domestic capital procurement. The finance minister made it clear that these reforms are intended to pave the way for an Atmanirbhar Bharat – the new mantra for resuscitating India’s economy savaged by the Covid-19 pandemic. One must, therefore, shed the past prejudices and judge the efficacy of the reforms package, especially raising of the FDI cap, by the promise it holds

SPOTLIGHT

for promoting ‘atmanirbharta’ (selfreliance) in defence production and associated activities. Sadly, the prospects do not look very promising if the objective is to achieve self-reliance in defence. One can, of course, give a twist to this polysemic term and argue that it means something other than self-reliance, but that would be ingenuous. To recall the words of the then defence minister, as reported by the Times of India on July 4, 2013, “allowing foreign companies to set up manufacturing/ assembly facilities here will be a retrograde step as it will stymie the growth of indigenous design and development – and our dependence on foreign countries and OEMs for modern weapons will get perpetuated.” The argument remains valid even today. Nothing has really changed since 2013, except that the country is now braving a pandemic-induced economic crisis. This shifts the focus from selfreliance to economic recovery within the trope of atmanirbharta. Can the decision then be justified on the grounds that the expected economic gains from relaxing the FDI limit for the economy will be so substantial as to override the old concerns about its impact on the local defence industry? This is where we enter the realm of the unknown. The trade-off between self-reliance and economic gains can perhaps be justified if higher volumes of foreign investment provide a lifeline to the beleaguered small and medium enterprises, start-ups, and even some bigger companies by integrating them more extensively with the supply chain of the OEMs. The question, however, is by how much should the foreign investment increase over the next one or two years to start yielding these economic gains. The finance minister did not give any indication of the volume of foreign investment expected to be received once the cap is formally raised, but a look at the official data shows that the level of investment will have to rise exponentially for the government to claim that the gamble of raising the FDI cap has actually worked and it has had a positive impact on economic revival. Going by the official data, this is going to be a challenge. Between 2001, when the defence sector was opened to FDI up to 26 per cent, and March 2020, the defence sector has attracted a paltry sum of `56.88 crore by way of foreign investment. It figures at the 60th position in the list of 63 sectors, in which the flow of foreign investment is tracked by the department for promotion

Production line of HAL Dhruv helicopters in Bengaluru WIKIPEDIA

ernment v o g 2 A ND i se Even the xpedient not to ra e t found it eyond 49 per cen licy t h e c a p b e n d i n g t h e F DI p o r while am le of occasions afte on a coup power in 2014 a s s u m i ng

of industry and internal trade. To put these figures in perspective, investment in this sector does not amount to even 0.01 per cent of the total foreign investment in India. The success of the new policy will, therefore, be measured by the growth in the volume of foreign investment. It will have to be exponential and, more importantly, it must materialise within a short period of time for it to be hailed as a success story. This may not be easy as India is presently faced with heavy odds on several fronts, the latest being downgrading of India’s sovereign rating by the international rating agency Moody’s. This development has been poohpoohed by the finance ministry, but it

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June 2020

is instructive that the rating has been lowered because of weak implementation of the earlier reform measures in India and not just on account of the impact of the pandemic on the economy. It would be a mistake to disregard this while fleshing out the new FDI policy. Some other issues also need to be addressed, through a concerted effort by various ministries, if the objective of the new FDI policy is to be achieved. First, the conditions attached to foreign investment, whether through the automatic route or with the government’s permission, should not complicate the process, as they presently do. This will require a review of the following conditions which are presently in force, as they engender bureaucratic intervention and introduce an element of uncertainty and subjectivity in implementation of the policy: (a) Infusion of fresh foreign investment within the permitted automatic route level, in a company not seeking industrial license, resulting in change in the ownership pattern or transfer of stake by existing investor to new foreign investor, requires government approval. (b) Investee company is required to be structured to be self-sufficient in areas of product design and development. The investee/joint venture company, along with manufacturing facility, is also required to have maintenance

SPOTLIGHT

MAHINDRAARMORED.COM

A ‘Toyota Coaster’ manufactured by Mahindra Emirates Vehicle Armouring (MEVA). It is a world class product built under license from a foreign giant

and life cycle support facility of the product being manufactured in India. (c) Foreign investment in the sector requires security clearance from and conform to the guidelines contained in MoD’s Security Manual. Second, issues related to labour laws, land acquisition, stability of the tax regime, licensing, regulatory framework, bureaucratic delays, etc., continue to be stumbling blocks in attracting foreign companies to set up base in India. Some states have been trying for long to attract investment by offering land, power, and other facilities. Recently, a few of them have eased the labour laws. The union government has also been promoting investment in the defence industrial corridors. It is difficult to say, though, if there is much they have to show for their efforts. The problem seems to be that all these developments are haphazard and inadequate. Rhetoric apart, things continue to move at a snail’s pace when it comes to walking the talk, but for some sterling exceptions. This state of affairs does not inspire confidence of the foreign investors. Fast tracking comprehensive reforms is necessary for creating the right environment for investment by the foreign and Indian investors. Now is the time to push these holistic reforms as the pandemic has made everyone malleable

ce t h e d e fe n n e h w , 1 0 20 p to Between s opened to FDI u 0, 2 a 0 sector w nt, and March 2 cted 26 per ce ce sector has attra e by the defen um of ` 56.88 cror a paltry s reign investment w a y of fo

to drastic changes which otherwise would have been vehemently opposed in the normal circumstances. Third, defence manufacturing is a capital-intensive, time-consuming and monopsonic sector with multiple suppliers (in most cases) and only one buyer, i.e. the MoD. So, unless there are good chances of the investee company being able to sell its products in the domestic market and to export them to supplement the domestic sale, there can be no business case for investment. This concern has acquired a new dimension because of MoD’s renewed focus on indigenous design, development, and manufacturing

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

of defence equipment, platforms, assemblies, sub-assemblies, spare parts, military materials, et al. The decision announced last month that only Indian companies will be allowed to participate in government tenders up to `200 crores may have reinforced these concerns. The foreign investor must be reassured that all companies registered in India will be treated at par irrespective of the extent of FDI in them. The extant Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2016, which governs capital procurement, does say that all companies registered in India that comply with the licensing requirement and the FDI norms would qualify as Indian vendors, but there are exceptions. The ‘Make’ projects, for example, can be undertaken only by the companies that are ‘owned and controlled’ by resident Indian citizens. Similar conditions also apply to the companies vying for projects under the ‘Strategic Partnership Model’. As some major projects, like manufacturing of aircraft, helicopters, submarines, and armoured vehicles, are likely to be undertaken under these categories, the stipulation relating to control by the Indian citizens needs reconsideration, apart from other similar restrictions. Fourth, it seems serendipitous that the decision to raise the FDI cap has come at a time when a new procurement category – Buy (Global – Manufacture in India) – is proposed to be included in the next version of the DPP. This category would entail procurement of equipment from the foreign OEMs with a minimum indigenous content of 50 per cent which can be achieved by them by manufacturing the equipment or its components, or by providing MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) services, in India through their subsidiaries. There is little doubt that the OEMs will be allowed to operate under this category through subsidiaries with foreign investment up to 74 per cent. However, it will make the FDI policy more attractive if the foreign OEMs are also permitted to set up wholly owned subsidiaries with 100 per cent FDI to execute contracts under the aforesaid category. This may not require any major change in the existing policy, which permits foreign investment exceeding 49 per cent (which is now to be raised to 74 per cent) ‘wherever it is likely to result in access to modern technology’ or for ‘other reasons to be recorded’. All that is needed is to notify that execution of a contract under the aforesaid category will

be deemed to be covered by the ‘other reasons’ for which foreign investment up to 100 per cent would be permitted through the automatic route. Fifth, a new clause has been included in the standard contract document in the draft DPP-2020 which seeks to empower the MoD to rope in a third party for indigenising the components, or improving the performance, of any equipment being bought under a contract or during its warranty period. This will add to the concerns that the foreign OEMs have about their intellectual property rights. There is a need to review the provision proposed to be included in the acquisition contracts. Sixth, a well-thought-out policy can at best create a conducive environment for investment. The actual investment will come in only if the investors are convinced that the budgetary constraints will not come in the way of procurement of equipment made by them in India by the MoD. It is no secret that the ministry has been in the grip of a severe and persistent resource crunch. The gap between the requirement projected by the armed forces and the budget allocated to them has grown from just about `23,000 crore a decade back to more than `1,03,000 crore in 2020-21. The situation may not change much for the better in the coming years as huge sums of money will be required for other sectors like health, infrastructure, and agriculture. It implies that the MoD may not be able to spend huge sums of money on procurement. Can exports make up for the low levels of procurement by the MoD? The official, narrative is that India offers a good opportunity to set up a manufacturing base to cater to the export market, which can more than make up for the lack of demand in the domestic defence market. This is questionable if look around to see who the big buyers are and what are the chances of their buying defence equipment from the India-based companies. According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, apart from India, the list of the largest importers of defence equipment includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Australia, and China. Put together, these five countries and rest of Asia and Oceania accounted for 41 per cent of the arms import between 2014 and 2019, followed by the Middle East (35 per cent), Europe (11 per cent), Africa (7.2 per cent) and Americas (5.7 per cent). It is hard to imagine why would the foreign OEMs make substantial

AMARTYA SINHA

SPOTLIGHT

An Indian-made ‘Kalyani M4’ armoured fighting vehicle on display at DefExpo-2020 in Lucknow. It is a worldclass product in its category

olm to Stockh Research g n i d r o c e Ac t he onal Peac Internati apart from India, of Institute, largest importers s list of the quipment include alia, e t s defence abia, Egypt, Au r S a ud i A r a a nd C h i n

investment to relocate their manufacturing facilities to India to export defence products to these countries, and why would these countries prefer to buy those products vis-à-vis those made by the same OEMs in their own countries, assuming that they continue to buy

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June 2020

big time. No alternative markets with sizeable appetite for imports also seem to be in sight which would justify such investments. It all boils down to the need for a pragmatic FDI policy that complements the procurement policies and procedures, transparency about the budget allocations in the future years, and faster decision-making, if the track record on foreign investment is to be improved. Even then, it will do no harm to have a realistic expectation of how much investment India could receive in the coming years, as there is no certainty that the results would be spectacular. One would, of course, be happy to be proved wrong on this count. Amit Cowshish is a former Financial Advisor (Acquisition), Ministry of Defence and Consultant, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi

SPECIAL FEATURE

THE UNIFORMED SAVIOURS OF HUMANITY AMARTYA SINHA elaborates the large-scale mobilisation of Indian troops and their exemplary contribution towards handling the COVID-19 pandemic in the country

he Coronavirus pandemic has literally engulfed the entire world with the total number of cases reaching up to 73,23,868 with 4,13,723 deaths as of June 10, 2020. In India the total number of cases already stands at a whopping 2,75,413 with 7719 patients dead. With the economy in tatters, transport systems crippled and normal

life jeopardised, it was the Indian Armed Forces and Central Paramilitary Forces who proved to be the backbone for keeping the logistics supply lines running. While the Indian Army launched ‘Operation Namaste’ for battling the crisis, the Indian Navy also joined the fight with ‘Operation Samudra Setu’ and evacuated thousands of Indians

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

stranded in foreign shores. The Indian Air Force also joined the bandwagon by airlifting thousands of tonnes of critical medical equipment, food and other logistics from one part of the country to another. The IAF initiative towards bringing back stranded Indian citizens in the extended neighbourhood was also extensively lauded by the proletariat.

SPECIAL FEATURE

Operational readiness and execution

The top leadership of the army, navy and air force have been working round the clock with key stakeholders including the Armed Forces Medical Services (AFMS), Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), defence public sector undertakings, Ordnance Factory Board, Indian Coast Guard, cantonment boards, and the National Cadet Corps (NCC) in putting swift and co-ordinated mechanisms in place to thwart the virus. The Integrated Defence Staff which advises the Chief of Defence Staff is an organisation especially suited to bring in synergy and jointness in the current rapidly evolving scenario. The National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) has been overseeing the command, control and coordination of the Crisis Management Group (CMG) of various wings of the union government and Indian armed forces. The very first tasks assigned to the armed forces were two missions to evacuate Indians stranded in foreign lands which had become hotspots for

These centres provide holistic facilities for medical treatment, as also their physical and mental wellbeing. The army has taken over a civil quarantine centre at Narela. Chief of Defence Staff- General Bipin Rawat visited the camp recently to take stock of the situation and to interact with doctors from the Army Medical Corps (AMC) and the armed security personnel deployed there. In case of further escalation of the crisis, various army schools have also been tasked to be on standby as quarantine facilities. The Armed Forces Medical Services (AFMS) is the backbone of the Armed Forces response to the pandemic. More than 8,500 doctors, 50,000 paramedical personnel and the vast infrastructure of the AFMS have been placed at the disposal of the nation. Twenty-eight service hospitals have been earmarked purely for coronavirus cases. These hospitals will cater not only to military personnel, but also to civilian patients transferred from state health facilities. High Dependency Care Units (HDUs) and Intensive Care Unit Units (ICUs) are being readied in 51 service hospitals to receive patients. Moreover, field hospitals across the country have been instructed to set-up a 45-bed isolation facility and create a 10-bedded intensive care unit exclusively for COVID-19 patients. Quick-reaction medical teams (QRMTs) and Battlefield Nursing Assistants (BFNA) will augment resources at short notice wherever required. Five Armed Forces hospitals,

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A C-17 Globemaster aircraft of the Indian Air Force comprising of crew, medical team and supporting staff before departing to Wuhan from Palam Air Force Station in Delhi on February 26, 2020

COVID-19. 112 Indian citizens and citizens of friendly foreign nations were flown back from Wuhan on February 27, 2020 in a C-17 Globemaster aircraft and 58 Indians were evacuated from Tehran on 10 March 2020 onboard the same plane. These evacuees were quarantined in six facilities across the nation including Manesar, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Chennai, Hindon and Mumbai. Seven other air force quarantine facilities have been kept in a state of readiness in Bhatinda, Devlali, Dundigal, Chakeri, Agra, Gorakhpur and Bangalore. The Indian Navy has set up quarantine centres at its bases in Visakhapatnam and Kochi. On March 27, 2020 the Indian Army Chief- General Manoj Mukund Naravane launched Operation Namaste for fighting the spread of Coronavirus and helping the union government in fighting against the pandemic. Eight quarantine facilities were established by the Indian Army all across the country. As part of the campaign the army established command wise helpline numbers. Moreover, the facilities for army families to visit the nearest army camp in case of emergencies were also set-up. As the army can’t always maintain social distancing due to tactical and operational reasons, a few advisories were also issued to the personnel. Three Coronavirus positive cases from Indian Navy quarantine centres were also transferred to a referral hospital in Delhi. Indians evacuated from Iran have been hosted in an army wellness facility at Jodhpur under ‘Operation Namaste’.

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Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai visiting the Coronavirus quarantine centre, at ITBP Chhawla camp in Delhi on March 13, 2020

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June 2020

PIB

SPECIAL FEATURE

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh reviewing the functioning of Armed Forces Medical Services and their assistance to civilian authorities in containing the spread of COVID-19, on April 17, 2020

including Army Hospital Research and Referral, Delhi and Armed Forces Medical College, Pune have begun testing for SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for causing COVID-19 illness in humans. The Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and the various agencies under its ambit have taken on the responsibility of augmenting vital equipment and resources needed by medical personnel.Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) has been tasked to manufacture ventilators and the Ordnance Factory Board has scaled up production of handsanitisers, masks and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). The Indian Air Force has done a commendable job in transporting men, women and material to the remotest locations in the country using heavy-lift transport jets. Commanders are all too aware that personnel of the armed forces are also vulnerable to rapid transmission and spread of the virus in view of their living conditions and deployment in hazardous operational areas like forward posts and battleships. Commanders at all levels are taking steps to prevent such an eventuality while performing their assigned task. In a laudable move, the men and women in uniform have decided to contribute one day’s salary to PMCARES fund amounting to about Rs

Raksha Mantri thanks the heroes

i ned ce also jo r o F r i A n g The India agon by airliftin cal w d it n r the ba s of tonnes of c i d thousand quipment, food an t of med i c a l e s t i c s f r om one p a r other logi ry to another the count

500 crore. Twenty-five thousand cadets of the National Cadet Corps (NCC) have been mobilised to assist the civil administration in traffic management, supply chain management, sensitisation of the public about social distancing and other essential measures. While the armed forces have responded with speed and efficiency to the on-going pandemic, the Chief of Army Staff has assured the nation that this will in no way affect their core duty of protecting the nation from external aggression and defending the vulnerable borders.

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh appreciated efforts of the Armed Forces on May 3, 2020 for carrying out hundreds of activities at various locations across the country on ground, in water and air to salute the COVID-19 warriors who have been steadfastly fighting to stop the spread of the virus. “The Armed Forcesorganised several activities to express gratitude to the Corona Warriors who are battling against the pandemic. These frontline warriors are doing commendable work in strengthening the morale of all those involved in India’s fight against COVID-19,” Rajnath Singh said. Referring to the fly pasts and showering of petals by helicopters of Indian Air Force, Indian Navy and Indian Coast Guard on hospitals, he said they saluted the nation’s resolve and unity in overcoming the challenges posed by COVID19 under the leadership of Prime MinisterNarendra Modi. The Raksha Mantri also thanked the armed forces for their special initiatives through several performances to express gratitude towards medical professionals, police and other frontlinewarriors and added that the entire nation stood united in these challenging times. The COVID-19 warriors, including doctors, nurses, hygiene and sanitation

SPECIAL FEATURE

staff, police personnel, media and several others engaged in maintenance of essential services and supplies have steadfastly contributed to the national effort to prevent spread of Coronavirus. These warriors are risking their lives every day to ensure that basic amenities such as electricity and water are delivered toeveryone, streets are clean, basic food items are available, no patient is returned untreated, law and order is maintained and those Indians stranded abroad are brought back and cared for. Indian armed forces paid rich tributes to India’s Corona Warriorsin a unique military way. From Srinagar to Thiruvananthapuram and Dibrugarh to Kachchh, the army carried out various activities like laying wreath at the Police memorials, honouring and felicitating health professions and emergency supply operatives. Visits to hospitals were carried out over hundreds of towns in all states from the local army formations all over the nation in small and big numbers by army teamsalong with military bands which played patriotic tunes as a tribute to the nation’s frontline warriors against Corona. Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru, Bhopal, Agra, Amritsar, Belgaum, Ranikhet, Pithoragarh among many metropolises, big and small townships saw the army, navy and IAF and Coast Guard visiting hospitals and paying

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Representatives of tri-Services paying homage to martyrs at the National Police Memorial, as part of the ‘Armed Forces Salute Corona Warriors’ programme, in New Delhi on May 3, 2020

of bilisation g o m le a c s n The largen troops for handliced n ia the Ind has clearly sile COVID-19 and validated the ng li all critics apability in hand nation’s c ave crisis su c h a g r

tributes. The activities started with laying wreaths at the local police memorials, an event which is truly unprecedented and brings the forces closer to their uniformed brethren. The entire country and all citizens enjoyed this rich salute and poured wishes and love to the armed forces over social media. The Indian military also organised multiple other events like flypasts by fighter jets and transport aircrafts of the IAF throughout the length and breadth of the country. The helicopters of Indian Air Force, Indian Navy and Coast Guard showered flower petals on the hospitals treating COVID-19 patients. The army

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June 2020

and IAF bands visited Corona hospitals and played tunes in an expression of gratitude to the COVIDwarriors. Fighterformations, comprising of the Sukhoi-30 MKI, MiG-29 and Jaguar flew past over Rajpath and orbited over Delhi visible to the residents from their terraces. In addition, IAF’s C 130J Super Hercules transport planes also flew over the NCR region. The navy and Coast Guard ships formed formations near shores at select locations. The ships were illuminatedat 25 locations covering the entire coastline of the country including the remote sites and far flung island territories of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep and Minicoy islands.

A strong resolve

The large-scale mobilisation of the Indian troops for handling COVID-19 has clearly silenced all critics and validated the nation’s capability in handling such a grave crisis. Moreover, the challenge came at a time when eastern Indian states like West Bengal and Odisha were battered by Super Cyclonic Storm ‘Amphan’. With a decisive union government at the helm of affairs and the Indian armed forces’ strong resolve in battling the ongoing pandemic, the Indian military actions towards countering COVID-19 will be embedded with golden letters in the pages of contemporary history.

COVER STORY

NUCLEAR ‘CHINDIA’

RISING OR UNBOUND? The sub-text is crystal clear…India and its armed forces; its warfighting support system and strategic infrastructure must be ready for the worst even as we insist on status quo pre-May 2020 as non-negotiable. This is because agreeing to “adjustment/acceptance” of current Chinese positions on ground “as is where is” will hand over critical strategic and geo-political space to China. It will make Sino-Pak collusion in Eastern Ladakh a nightmarish reality; make Leh, Siachen/Saltoro/DBO/Chushul and our communications/command and control set up fraught with risk of sudden attack and loss. GEN RAJ MEHTA examines the issue and takes a macro view above the cacophony of satellite driven nit-picking about weapons, bunkers, tents, vehicles and such wearisome detailing

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

COVER STORY

The Pangong Tso lake in Ladakh

WIKIPEDIA

he India Today issue datelined June 8, 2020, carries more than a delicious oxymoron: what was considered Nuclear armed China-India (Chindia) rising falling down to “clashing with clubs and stones” across portions of the 3488 km long LAC that separates the two countries; thus darkly echoing a quote often attributed to physicist Albert Einstein about how a future war would be fought. That the two nations which did $90 billion of bilateral trade of course added a key strand to the irony. So did the expected outcome of the General Officer level border talks between the two warring nations at the Chushul/Moldo border meeting point on June 6, 2020 whereby among chants of both sides “seeking a peaceful way out” the MEA indicated that both countries were in for a long haul before a tenuous peace can be restored across the alpine Himalayan wastes. This, even as Lt Gen SL Narsimhan (Retired), a member of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) remarked that “reading into the

happenings of the past few days, there is a possible solution”. Readers will of course wonder how Chindia; the clever marketing buzzword of 2008 vintage has come down to streetfighter like slugfests and stone throwing with both sides soldiers carrying weapons sheathed and with barrels pointing downward; having last fired weapons in anger 45 years ago at Tulung La in October, 1975. Both sides are reflecting a refrain which amounts to neither breakthrough or breakdown… Just “stasis in glacial progress” as it has been since November, 1962 as veteran defence analyst C Uday Bhasker put it succinctly in an article datelined June 8, 2020. A Navy veteran, Uday who heads a respected think-tank, Society for Policy Studies, opines that there is need to look beyond the LAC where a grueling, grinding confrontation will stay for longer than the Doklam faceoff perhaps and take constructive action about our historical “sea blindness”. He suggests that China’s ambitions about becoming the lead superpower by 2049 needs secure sea lines of communication for its vast trade and energy imports. A Pacific Ocean power, it is at sea in the Indian Ocean which should have been an Indian Navy’s strength but isn’t. It is hurtful that while China has allotted 30 percent of its $180 billion defence budget ($54 billion), India has allotted

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only 14 percent of its $46 million to the navy ($7 billion). By current projections, the Chinese Navy by 2030 will have 550 ships compared to an optimistic 175 ships for the Indian Navy. Uday suggests that managing China has to be a multipronged approach in which development of trans-border capabilities should include all three services including the security and growth for all in the IOR (SAGAR) a 2015 PM Modi initiative which will have to be navy driven and will need heavy investment in capital assets like ships/submarines/marine aircraft. A word about Chindia is necessary here to add an uber dimension to the largely linear and jingoism led territorial dispute on both sides that has been aired on several public and social media platforms. The book ‘Chindia Rising’ by Professor Jagdish Sheth, Kellstadt Professor of Marketing Goizueta Business School, Emery University, USA says that in Thomas Friedman’s words, nations that are both part of the same major global supply chain are extremely unlikely to go to war with each other. Micheal Dell, Sheth avers, says much the same in his “Dell Theory of Conflict Prevention” by defining it thus: “These countries (Chindia for instance) understand the risk premium that they have and they are pretty careful to protect the risk equity they’ve built up”. For emerging China

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COMMONS.WIKIMEDIA

he says after many visits there that the average Chinese has tasted economic independence, a better lifestyle and a better life for family and they don’t want to give it up. Strategic thought leader Francis Fukuyama says that economic interdependence has largely rendered conflict counterproductive and China and India are aware of this reality. This view may be far too liberal because China is waging war in some far from Asia Pacific to South Asia and the ongoing competition between China and India has made both nations bellicose; China leading the stakes by a length in that space as has now happened.

a hile Chin w t a h t l u s f It is hurt d 30 percent of it ($54 has allotteon defence budget nly $180 billi ndia has allotted o to billion), I t of its $46 million 14 percen ($7 billion) t h e na v y

Aksai Chin Sino-Indian border map

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

That said, the book concludes that with people in Chindia pre-COVID 19 finding new jobs, improving their lot in life and both rising to economic and political parity with the developed world, such progress rather than military conflict is more likely to be the new normal. This economic pragmatism and enlightened self-interest is probably what Chindia is more likely to embrace and leave the territorial and political dispute recessed for later times and opportunities, so far as China is concerned. If we carefully read the tea leaves post the June 6, 2020 border meeting of apex Generals on either side, the careful MEA/Chinese statements as also NSAB member Gen Narsimhan’s cautious but perceptive prediction of a solution sooner rather than later, Professor Sheth’s conclusion match perfectly. There is far more space for peace rather than there is for concerted military action above unarmed combat of the jousting kind as has been on current display. In pursuit of their national interests, nations pursue perceptions both for internal and external reasons as also perception management and calibrated conflict from which disengagement is rarely lost sight of. This is one accepted method of conveying messages/ signals without losing political and operational equilibrium. Why it was important to inform readers of this fact is the reality that, post Doklam 2017, India has pleasantly surprised all its clientele within and outside India across the globe that its self-image has changed irrevocably for the better. The current border crisis despite COVID-19 limitations reinforces that cheerful impression. Besides, this remarkable turnaround has made startled, bullying China pause and rethink what it must do about its historical bellicosity against all nations posturing to compete against the Middle Kingdom’s self-image of being the center of the world. It no longer is and the COVID-19 damages have made things infinitely worse for the Dragon Kingdom. Outside India, its grip over Hongkong; suzerainty demands over Taiwan and ability to threaten Vietnam with consequences are being openly challenged and the USA and its allies, Japan and Australia are executing bold new bonds of friendship in China’s backyard that are challenging its historical and economic claims and initiatives such as modern “trade” revival of the ancient land and sea silk

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routes, besides being India-centric… China more than India is worried and apprehensive and that perhaps has manifested in its new adventurism across the Asia Pacific-South Asia swathe of land and sea mass. Emerging and more self-assured India clearly no longer subscribes to being overwhelmed by China post the 1967 Nathu La skirmish followed by the more successful 1987 Wangdung standoff. It has started giving as good as it gets, yet retaining the wisdom to keep all channels open for de-escalation or damage limitation and thus balance nuanced aggression with pragmatism. A Breaking News example of this new and well-founded spirit is the statements given by two senior ministers of the union cabinet, both members of the Cabinet Committee on Security Members (CCS) datelined June 9, 2020 while addressing a virtual party rally. While Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stated that India would not succumb to Chinese muscle flexing in the Ladakh Sector, combative Home Minister Amit Shah stated that India will make no concessions to any one at the cost of its national interest and national pride. He added that, like USA and Israel, India too has the capability to conduct pre-emptive strikes and has demonstrated this capability against Pakistan severally. This remark was probably provoked by the Chinese statesponsored Global Times which released a video on June 6, 2020 showing a Chinese Airborne Brigade taking just hours to deploy from the Chinese hinterland to the ‘northwestern region (Eastern Ladakh) amid border tension’. In a separate public statement as Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh stated that India wanted an early resolution to the long pending border dispute with China. He added that “we never try to hurt anyone’s honour and can’t tolerate any hit to our own.” Similarly blowing hot and cold, the Chinese Foreign Ministry on June 9, 2020 described the LAC situation as “stable and controllable”. Yet, the unspoken and practical subtext for India may well be to contemplate whether the stalled across LAC offensive Strike Corps it was raising needs revival from cold storage and its arming, fielding and readiness for employment if at all warranted. The worry that a spike in defence budget allotment to 3 percent of GDP from the measly 1.46 percent must also now be a compelling concern even in COVID-19 affected India.

ng w a r i n i f ic to i g a w s i Pa c C h i na om A s ia ng oi ng r f r a f e s om eo and ia a nd t h S o ut h A s n b e t w e e n C h i n a s o c o mp e t i t i m a d e b o t h n a t i o n I nd ia ha s bel l ic ose

We know that we are still far away from being in control when push comes to shove and, worse, if the security threat becomes double-headed and the conflict spectrum also includes Pakistan; a Chinese proxy for putting India off balance since 1963, when Pakistan illegally seceded Shaksgam Valley and its 5000 sq km for petty gains. It lies across the Siachen Glacier and close to the Indian Army’s Saltoro Ridge occupation of commanding passes and heights which control access to Siachen. Loss of this critical area hedged in by Saltoro-Siachen-DBO with the base of this strategic territory being the Galwan Valley to China or through Sino-Pak

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collusion will make Leh vulnerable to the extreme and practically indefensible. It is majorly for this strategically worrying reason that this current imbroglio in Eastern Ladakh in the main (Naku La in North Sikkim, 1600 km South is just a distraction) has India discomfited. It is the very setting where a dual front threat to India will manifest and this is worrisome as much as it is a strategic and geo-political possibility for which India has to do rather more in terms of military, political and infrastructure development to deflect/ deny t hat eventuality, and ensure strong, well-armed and supplied military forces international diplomatic and political support to cope with the fallouts of such Sino-Pak collusion.

The LAC imbroglio

Gen Rajiv Narayanan, who heads Research in India’s No 1 Think Tank headed by Gen BK Sharma, has, in a recent peer-reviewed article examined the LAC imbroglio at length. He says that unlike LAC is unlike the LOC with Pakistan which is “well defined, delineated, but not demarcated (defined means point-to-point details are written, delineated means these points and the line joining them are clearly marked on large scale maps – large scale is needed to avoid ambiguity). Demarcated means this delineation is

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marked on the ground by surveyed and numbered boundary pillars. He adds that, unlike the LoC, the LAC, however, has different connotations across the Western (Eastern Ladakh), Central (Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand), and Eastern (Sikkim, Arunachal) sectors. In the Western Sector, the Indian claim line is based on the 1865 Johnson Line, claiming the whole of Aksai Chin, while the Chinese had generally accepted the 1899 Macartney-McDonald Line along the Laktsang range till East of Karakoram Pass (overlooking the area where the Chinese built the SinkiangLhasa road). Post 1962, the Chinese have come further ahead. The Central Sector, the boundary lies along the watershed with limited claims by China, while the Eastern Sector has the famous Macmahon line dividing Tibet and British India, drawn on a very smallscale map, with no clear definition, except that it follows the watershed, based on the 1914 Shimla Agreement between British India, Tibet, and China. Post annexation of Tibet by China in 1950, it has refused to accept the

Ladakh and operates on interior lines of operational logistics support and China has the obverse; exterior lines of communication over long distances. India thus has the operational advantage. COVID 19; its huge impact as a global pandemic and negative impact on China as the probable source of this misery has taken the sheen off its Belt and Road and linked multilayered economic, social, cultural and hegemony-related initiatives, rendering them comatose and unattractive. Another galling point is the gathering closeness between India and the USA; the current sole super power and India’s increasing self-confidence and operational assertiveness in redefining J&K and aggression against Pakistan for sponsoring terror. The mix of these factors as already brought out has made the LAC a ‘Go To’ rallying place for China. Out of 3448 km long LAC, 857 km are covered in Ladakh of which 368 km is the International Border (IB) and the remaining 489 km is the LAC. This was the line reached by China in 1962. The Himalayas/Karakorams (also called Pangong Range) extend from 14-18000 ft and are largely unoccupied. The main defences are therefore located on the Ladakh Range, Pangong Range, along Shyok River and in the Depsang plains manned by the army with LAC deployment by ITBP which is not continuous due to terrain constraints.

n f collusio tan o y t li i b i s The pos hina and Pakis usion C between ub text of this intr ses was the s dictate our responand and must ls of governance at all leve esponses military r

treaty the Qing dynasty had signed with the British India in 1914. That said, the LAC has neither been correctly defined, delineated nor demarcated, even during British India. Thus, it suffers from a weakness of differing perceptions of the LAC by both India and China, leading to patrol face-offs and stand-offs like the ongoing one in Eastern Ladakh. He states that because India have better infrastructure than China in Eastern

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

What has happened in Eastern Ladakh/ Naku La, North Sikkim

In a deeply researched article by ex DGMO and later VCOAS Gen Vijay Oberoi states that, moving from north to south, the important areas are firstly the disputed Karakoram Pass, India’s ALG at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO), the 260 km long Shyok-DBO road by BRO and the Chip Chap Valley, coveted by China for various reasons. He adds that some area North of Pangong Tso including some areas of Galwan and Chang-Chenmo are under control of China. Thirdly the area from Lukung to Chushul covers the approaches to Leh. In the extreme south are the areas of Chumar and Demchok. Chumar is strategically important due to its proximity to the Manali-UpshiLeh axis and Demchok is the traditional route from Tibet to Ladakh. Not the least, the area of Naku La in North Sikkim erupted in a clash in January, 2020 uncharacteristically erupted in physical, not weapon fired clashes. In May, 2020, these clashes started

ABHIJIT IYER-MITRA @DETRESFA

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Pangong area LAC

taking place and seemed coordinated and overseen by higher Chinese military control. India has responded robustly, giving as much as it has got. That said, the situation has nowhere got out of control. This writer will not test the patience of the readers by going irrelevant tactical detail of each small incident often boisterously commented upon on TV and in other mass/ social media platforms but rather more soberly in print media. Suffice it to say that the following important points emerge:  The Chinese presence at Galwan road construction site, south of DBO poses immense danger to not just DBO ALG but also our operational logistics and must be contested. Galwan, if held, is like a knife held at the throat of our DBO connectivity and cannot be accepted.  The “finger” clashes between Finger 4 and 8 on the Northern Pangong Tso banks are “no man’s land” and must revert to that status. In this connection, it is not worth spending inordinate time figuring who is in physical possession of these fingers. It is more important that status quo be restored a sin April 2020.  The Naku La clash is a distraction and needs no further discussion.

rfighting a w r o f s i on While opt ould be sensible to ly on w exist, it powder dry and reomic k e e p t he t r eng t h a nd e c on military s s to carry Chindia astutenes prosperity forward to

 We must continue our infrastructure development as planned and negate PLA efforts to deny us this right in what is clearly our territory.

Afterword

China is an avowed enemy nation and is to be watched with care, perspicuity and confidence, military strength and professional skills and alertness at all levels. The possibility of collusion between China and Pakistan was the sub text of this intrusion and must dictate our responses at all levels of governance and military responses. The country

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and its armed forces have conducted themselves with admirable firmness and restraint and must continue in the same vein. In end October 2018, orders were issued to create defence cyber and space agencies and a special operations division. The heads of these three triservice organisations were posted in May, 2019 and the raisings are to be completed by September, 2022. This must be ensured for strategic utilisation. The need to be better prepared in terms of military strength demands immediate release of money and national will to spend it prudently and wisely. In that context, funding for suppressed military formations must be made available as also funding for stronger services. This implies a healthy increasing in defence budgeting to around 3 percent of GDP. Lastly, while options for warfighting exist, it would be sensible to keep the powder dry and rely on military strength and economic astuteness to carry Chindia forward to prosperity, not mutually assured losses of an unacceptable kind delivered with fairness, respect, eternal watchfulness and territorial integrity. Maj Gen RS Mehta, AVSM, VSM(Retd) is an Armoured Corps veteran

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An aerial view of Kushok Bakula Rimpochee Airport in Leh

SHIFT IN INDIAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S BORDER DEFENCE PROVOKES CHINA

WIKIPEDIA

Explaining how China is systematically grabbing land in Ladakh by exploiting its topographical features, P STOBDAN suggests the way forward

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ver since India has changed the rules of the game in handling border post-2014, China's response has become different. In the past decades, Chinese were used to India’s lax attitude. However, a shift in India under the BJP government has adopted a more “assertive posturing” to “interdict” Chinese troops came after 2014. This led to increased frequency of face-offs from once or twice a month to almost daily. Having been used to browbeat the Indian army in the past, the PLA is perhaps surprised by India's swift counter build-up and firmness at the commander’s flag meetings. The current border stand-off in Eastern Ladakh has a long history though recurrently erupted to make news headlines. The issue has not been about clarity of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) along the long-disputed border but about China’s pervasive encroachment over a large tract of land that had remained under dispute since the 1960s. Not only did the Chinese troops frequently enter through land and air, but they also regularly entered through the water in boats along with vehicular patrols across the Pangong Lake. New Delhi’s prolonged neglect of Ladakh and leaving the region under the administrative control of J&K was among the key factors that weakened Ladakh’s border defence. New Delhi outsourcing it to Kashmir and Srinagar being too preoccupied with its own mess for decades meant that the protection of Ladakh land suffered. While the past governments also cared less about the defence and building infrastructure of the area the vacuum was exploited by China and Beijing found it easy to grab Ladakh land through multitudes of tactics. A report of the Jammu and Kashmir government that was highlighted by the media in September, 2009 suggested that the Chinese have been grabbing Indian, especially in Skakjung area of Eastern Ladakh in ‘inches and not in yards’. Even after losing Aksai-Chin (East of Chang-Chenmo) and Menser villages in the 1950s and 60s, Chinese have been occupying further land in Eastern Ladakh. A careful survey on the ground also indicated that nothing drastic changes had been made by J&K authorities to defend its territory even after 1962 as the Chinese have never stopped encroaching into the pastureland traditionally grazed by the

out t b e en a b a l o n s a h e T h e i s s u t h e L i n e o f A c t u gclarity of AC) along the lon Control (Lborder but about ment disputed ervasive encroach d China’s p ge tract of dispute over a lar land

available pastures here are kept untouched during the summer months so that they can be used for winter grazing by the shepherds. For centuries, the shepherds took their livestock to Skakjung between December and March every year. During this time, nomads prepare for the lambing process and young lambs become capable of walking. Skakjung also remains a source of collecting Tama firewood and cow dung for the Chang-pas. The area sustains 80,000 sheep/goats and 4,000 yak/ponies during winter. They consume over 75,000 quintals of tama

China’s Tianshuihai army service station in Aksai Chin

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Chang-pas (shepherds) in Ladakh. Although most of the 846 kilometres border in Ladakh is disputed, the section most critical has been the area between Dumtsele and Demchok – a distance of over 45 kilometres. The area is locally known as Skakjung located 300 kilometres east of Leh and is traditionally the only winter pasture for several villages including Chushul, Tsaga, Niddar, Nyoma, Mud, Dungti, Kuyul, Loma etc. This area is located on the right bank of Indus between Dungti and Fuktse but the area extends even up to Demchok. Skakjung is lowland and a relatively warmer place compared to the high mountains surrounding it. Copiously

or dry forage, worth `10 crore annually. There is no exact demarcation of a boundary between India and China in Skakjung but there exists enough documentary evidence that Skakjung (measuring at least 9 × 40 kilometers) had historically fallen into the control of Ladakh kingdom. In the contemporary times, Chinese advancement in Skakjung had intensified after 1986 when Deng Xiaoping pursued a forward economic policy for large-scale infrastructural development in the Ngari area of Tibet, facing Ladakh. In the absence of reliable information, the exact Chinese advancement cannot be ascertained; however, few correspondences that Continued on page 28

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THE BORDER QUAGMIRE AND THE ZONES OF ACTION

adakh is a land abounding in awesome physical features, set in an enormous and spectacular environment. Bounded by two of the world's mightiest mountain ranges, the Karakoram in the north and the Great Himalaya in the south, it is traversed by two other parallel chains, the Ladakh Range and the Zanskar Range. In geological terms, this is a young land, formed a few million years ago. Its basic contours, uplifted by tectonic movements, have been modified over the millennia by the process of erosion due to wind and water, sculpted into the form that we see today. Literally meaning the land of high passes, Ladakh, is nestled among a series of Himalayan ranges mostly running longitudinally. These mountain clusters by no means runs exactly North-South. Nature in fact doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t seem to believe is symmetry or straight lines- it likes to weave its own weird patterns, with languidly designed twists and turns without a care for Earth or elsewhere in the universe. Tucked in between these strings of lofty ridges are numerous valleys and basins which lodge numerous lakes and through which flows a number of rivers and rivulets. Between Pir Panjal and Zanskar ranges lies the beautiful state of Kashmir. Sandwiched between Zaskar and Ladakh Ranges is the valley of Ladakh which once had its summer capital at Leh and winter capital at Skardu (now in PoK). Spreading between the Ladakh and Karakoram ranges are the Nubra and Shyok valleys of Ladakh. Ladakh is a big chunk of territory sprawling over 21080 square miles, its most important river, of course, is the Indus, with rivers Shyok and Nubra being

its biggest tributaries. Indus and Shyok have their origins in Western Tibet and flow from east to west, while Nubra has its source in the glaciers of Karakoram range and flows from north to south. Nubra joins Shyok at Lungzhun and then the two rivers flow west to make a confluence with the Indus at Skardu. These rivers meander through highly mountainous and rugged terrain and form deep gorges along their courses. None of these, is therefore navigable, though these become fordable when these get deep frozen in winter. Even laden ponics and camels can cross their thick layer of ice. There is a saying: As religions lead to community formation, rivers lead to people. Thus most of the important towns and other habitations of Ladakh are located on the banks of these three rivers and the main communication routes between Tibet/ Xingjiang also generally follow their courses. Leh, Hemis, Nimu, Saspool and Khalsi are the notable towns on the banks of the Indus, whereas the towns of Chiang Chenmo, Khalsar, Shyok and Biangdangdo are located along the course of river Shyok. Henache, Nubra and Panamik are the prominent towns of Nubra valley. Today a high-altitude desert, sheltered from the rain-bearing clouds of the Indian monsoon by the barrier of the Great Himalaya, Ladakh was once covered by an extensive lake system, the vestiges of which still exist on its southeast plateaus of Rupshu and Chushul, in the drainage basins or lakes of Tso-moriri, Tso-kar and Pangong-tso. But the main source of water is winter snowfall. Dras, Zanskar and the Suru Valley on the Himalaya's northern flanks receive heavy snow in winter, this feeds the

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glaciers from which melt water, carried down by streams, irrigates the fields in summer. For the rest of the region, the snow on the peaks is virtually the only source of water. As the crops grow, the villagers pray not for rain, but for sun to melt the glaciers and liberate their water. Ladakh lies at altitudes ranging from about 2,750 metres at Kargil to 7,672 metres at Saser Kangri, in the Karakoram Range. Summer temperatures rarely exceed 27 degrees Celsius in the shade, while in winter they may at times plummet to minus 20 degrees Celsius even in Leh. Surprisingly though, the thin air makes the heat of the sun even more intense than at lower altitudes. It is said that only in Ladakh can a man sitting in the sun with his feet in the shade suffer from sunstroke and frostbite at the same time. For nearly 900 years, from the middle of the 10th century, Ladakh was an independent kingdom, its ruling dynasties descending from the kings of old Tibet. The kingdom attained its greatest geographical extent and glory in the early 17th century under the famous king Singge Namgyal, whose domain extended across Spiti and western Tibet right up to the Mayum-la, beyond the sacred sites of Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar. Gradually, perhaps partly due to the fact that it was politically stable, Ladakh became recognised as the best trade route between the Punjab and Central Asia. For centuries it was traversed by caravans carrying textiles, spices, raw silk, carpets, dyestuffs, narcotics, etc. Heedless of the landâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rugged terrain and apparent remoteness, merchants entrusted their goods to relays of pony transporters who

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took about two months to carry them from Amritsar to the Central Asian towns of Yarkand and Khotan. On this long route, Leh was the midway stop, and developed into a bustling entrepot, its bazars thronged with merchants from distant countries. The famous pashmina (better known as cashmere) also came down from the high-altitude plateaux of eastern Ladakh and western Tibet, through Leh, to Srinagar, where skilled artisans transformed it into shawls known the world over for their softness and warmth. Ironically, it was this lucrative trade that finally spelt the doom of the independent kingdom. It attracted the covetous attention of Gulab Singh, the ruler of Jammu in the early 19th century, who sent his general Zorawar Singh to invade Ladakh in 1834 AD. There followed a decade of war and turmoil, which ended with the emergence of the British as the paramount power in north India. Ladakh, together with the neighbouring province of Baltistan, was incorporated into the newly created state of Jammu & Kashmir. Just over a century later, this union was disturbed by the partition of India, as a result of which Baltistan became part of Pakistan, while Ladakh remained in India as part of the State of Jammu & Kashmir. Aksai Chin is a portion of the Kashmir region, at the northernmost extent of the Indian subcontinent in south-central Asia. It constitutes nearly all the territory of the Chinese-administered sector of Kashmir that is claimed by India to be part of the Ladakh area of Jammu and Kashmir state. Geographically, Aksai Chin is a southwestward extension of the Plateau of Tibet. The territory administered by China

is situated largely in the southernmost part of the Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang, China, with a small portion on the southeast and south sides lying within the extreme western limit of the Tibet Autonomous Region. With an average elevation of some 5,180 metres, Aksai Chin consists largely of a high, isolated, inhospitable, and mostly uninhabitable plain bordered to the west and southwest by the Karakoram Range and to the north and northeast by the Kunlun Mountains. Its terrain is more rugged to the northwest, and there is internal drainage into small alkaline lakes in the east. The climate is cold and dry, with most of the little precipitation the region receives falling in the summer months of July and August. Because of its remoteness and isolation, Aksai Chin was long an ignored corner of the subcontinent, but the Chinese built a military road through it in the 1950s in order to connect Tibet with Xinjiang. The Indian discovery of the road and objection to the Chinese presence in the sector was one of the factors leading to sharp border clashes between the two countries in 1962. At the conclusion of the conflict, China retained control of about 38,000 square km of territory in Aksai Chin. The area remained a point of contention between the two countries. For India, it was country's only gateway to Central Asia after the partition in 1947. For China, the remote western provinces of Tibet and Xinjiang were effectively separated by Indian possession of Aksai chin and prevented it from movement of armed forces from Tibet to Xinjiang and vice-versa, regions where there was considerable unrest. Sometime in the decade of 1950's, Chinese decided to construct a road joining Tibet and

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Xinjiang illegally, in Indian territory. Indians consider the border to at Lanak La Pass (Johnson Line 1865) and the Chinese consider the border to be at Kongka La Pass (Macartney-Macdonald Line 1899 accepted by PRC until 1959). After India became independent, the responsibility of defending this region was given to ITBP or Indo-Tibetan Border Police. Since the region became quite inaccessible during winter months, patrols were run by the ITBP during summer time to Aksai Chin. In 1952, an Indian patrol party first came to know about the Chinese construction. Till 1955, the Chinese People's Liberation Army’s presence was minimal in the sector. But the road the Chinese were constructing was completed in 1957 (Chinese National Highway G-219) connecting China’s Xinjiang and Tibetan Province cutting through the Aksai Chin. An announcement was made from Beijing and the announcement was published in the People's Daily which also presented a map of the region showing Aksai Chin as Chinese territory. In 1958, it was impossible for Indian border patrol teams to go to Lanak La without being detected by PLA units. Till 1959, the Indian government did not take any action because Jawahar Lal Nehru did not want to deteriorate SinoIndian Relations and Nehru thought that China was India's great friend but the Tibetan Rebellion (1959), the Dalai Lama seeking asylum in India and Konkga La Pass Incident (1959) pressurised him and then Defence Minister Krishna Menon to change their stance on Hindi-Chini-BhaiBhai jingoism. —Geopolitics Bureau

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Sketch Showing Skakjung Area (Eastern Ladakh) Where Chinese Incursions are Frequent

Continued from page 25 were dispatched in 1993 by the Deputy Commissioner to the Jammu and Kashmir Government in Srinagar had suggested that the Chinese pushed the herdsmen into the Indian side in Skakjung with large livestock numbering 8,000 to 10,000 illegally every year. Enraged by the Chinese aggressiveness, the Indian herdsmen, complained to the district authorities every year to push the Chinese herdsmen back across the LAC. An official letter by Deputy Commissioner, Leh addressed to the Chief Secretary J&K dated 29 October 1993 said ‘there [Chinese] transgressors pitched 35 tents in our side of the LAC unauthorised for grazing their animals… the ‘public of Changthang accordingly lodged serious resentment…this kind of overgrazing by outsiders would have definitely resulted into the paucity of surface grass in the winter reserve of the local nomads and perishing of their livestock ultimately due to starvation… even there are apprehension of clash of serious nature between the local nomads and the transgressors over the

t of ed neglec n g n lo o r p i’s gio New Delh nd leaving the re ntrol o a c Ladakh administrative under theas among the key kh’s of J&K w at weakened Lada factors th fence bor der de

grazing land.’ In the early 1990s, when the Chinese PLA troops were not fully deployed along the LAC, the local administration in Ladakh was able to regain some pastureland from the Chinese. A report suggested that a local sub-inspector of police T. Gyalpo had once camped himself in Skakjung with the support

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of ITBP personnel and was able to push the intruders back into the Chinese side in 1993. Among other things, the district administration in Ladakh had frequently written to the Government of India for an early demarcation and clarification of LAC in this sector. Since then, the Chinese have been upgrading their infrastructure and military capabilities in the Ngari region opposite Skakjung and so has changed their ability to push their nomads from the area through a well-planned strategy into the Indian side. The modus operandi that the Chinese repeatedly used had included the threatening and scarring of Indian herdsmen to abandon the grazing land they hold during winter months. Once they had vacated the area, the Chinese would occupy it and construct permanent structure to lay their claims. Local herdsmen had cited hundreds of such incidents in which they had lost their grazing area. The prominent among them includes the loss of Nag-Tsang across the Indus located opposite to Fuktse that was under the Indian control until 1984. Later in 1991,

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National Highway No.-1 connecting Srinagar with Leh

WIKIPEDIA

according to the revenue department of Nyoma sub-division, another spot Na-Kung had fallen into the control of China. Similarly, in 1992, yet another grazing point Lungma-Serding was lost to the Chinese. There are numerous such instances of Chinese blatant encroachment into Indian Territory – fact Indian security agencies are often not willing to accept (See illustration). The last bit to grab land in Skakjung took place on 28 December 2008, a month after the 26/11 incident of Mumbai when India was preoccupied with terrorism. The Chinese had threatened the Change-pas at Dokbug opposite Doley Tsango to vacate the area or face the consequences. Dokbug and Doley Tsango are the places where shepherds of Kuyul and Demchok took their livestock for winter grazing. According to a J&K official, seven families of Kuyul had to pack the Rebo tents from Dokbug on 29 December 2008 to shift to Doley Tsango. According to the Deputy Commissioner’s report of 4 January 2009 addressed to the Divisional Commissioner of Kashmir, the matter had become much more serious as he said ‘the seriousness of the matter may be imagined from the fact that they are not even accepting it as a disputed area but claiming it as their territory.’ The report was based on the inputs filed from the field by a former Sub Divisional Magistrate (Nyoma) Tsering Norboo. Apart from suggesting to the government about the need for protecting the age-old grazing rights of local shepherds, he had recommended that these shepherds should be taken into confidence while planning any activity in the area as they form the second-line birds-view watchers of the border. Obviously, there was a clear sign of India withdrawing as the area covered under the LAC was shrinking as a result of China’s repeated incursions. A report in January 2010 suggested that incursions were taking place due to serious discrepancies in the maps that are in possession of various Indian agencies. It is a mystery why the Chinese have suddenly heightened this time the tension at its border with India and diverted 5,000 PLA troops from an interior site to the Ladakh border. From early May onwards, the PLA has been intruding into some pockets in Eastern Ladakh and disrupted normal patrolling in Galwan Nala, Hot-Spring points and Serijab area in Pangong Lake.

r es ble pastu ring la i a v a Copiously ept untouched du ey k th here are r months so that g e n the summ d for winter grazi en e e c a n b e u s p h e r d s . T h i s ha s b e h by the s since centuries g ha p p e n i n

PLA also disrupted Indian construction activities taking place inside the LAC. In the absence of an international border, and a disputed LAC, both sides have agreements and CBMs that if there is conflict, they will resolve it at the border at a local level. However, Eastern Ladakh area is huge and has an 830 km border with China. Most of it is disputed. This time they seemed to have come 2-3 km into the Galwan Valley. If we lose Galwan valley, the Chinese will come into Shyok Valley and can then cut off the northern flank including the Karakoram Pass, Nubra Valley, Aksai Chin. This will make Ladakh vulnerable security wise.

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There are 200-300 incursions taking place every year, mostly in Ladakh, but it is the sensitivity of the area this time which is threatening. Galwan is a pivotal, strategic vantage point. Many analysts have cited numerous reasons for the Chinese provocation this time. But it comes against the backdrop of multiple developments raking place at the global level. To cite a few there is an intense conflict unfolding between the US and China, initially started with the tariff war. The Covid-19 seemed to have further sharpened the difference between added anger among the people in the Western world against China’s mishandling of the outbreak of the epidemic since it began at the end of last year. China is also isolated over its handling of Hong Kong unrest. China’s belligerency over its claims in the South China Sea has gone. Tensions with Taiwan have heightened, besides the worsening situation in Xinjiang province has put China on a spot All of these and especially after the pandemic, Chinese image has been badly hit and there is growing demand for isolating, punishing China and it is getting cornered. Therefore, it is natural that “more cornered they are more they tend to show that they are powerful. They become belligerent and this is what

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The Shyok river flowing through Ladakh

they have done now in Ladakh, where the stake is low as compared to taking conflict with Taiwan and opening some other fronts in the Indo-Pacific. The provocation could be that after going slow in building roads and infrastructure in Ladakh for many years, India is now going in for fast track construction activities. The Chinese may have been provoked by our activity. India’s stepped-up construction activities has been perturbing to them, forcing PLA to react differently, accusing India of transgressions and altering LAC position. Despite the topographical challenges, the BRO, since 2014, had fasttracked the road construction activities in Ladakh. This time around 260 km long Shayok-DBO road construction that probably provoked PLA intrusion in early May triggering the current Galwan stand-off. Chinese media cited PLA’s actions in response "India's recent, illegal construction of defence facilities to disrupt Chinese border patrolling and unilaterally changing the border status quo.” There have been some analyses about China getting irked over our decision to reorganise the J&K and

e in h for trad ially s u p ld u o India sh ic interest, espec m its strateg ond the Karakora of trade bey the Mazar Valley e Pass into province and revivoad Xinjiang h-Kashgar Silk R the old Le

make Ladakh a separate Union Territory last year. It is possible that not only has China used the bifurcation issue as a Trojan horse to factor itself in the Kashmir dispute but also forward its stakes in Ladakh. Clearly, some kind of strategic move or a joint thinking between China and Pakistan may be there. The issue was featured in the Pakistan-China joint statement last August. On the ground Chinese are trying to push India into the Galwan Valley towards the Shyok valley. Possibly,

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Chinese also fear that their several flagship regional connectivity projects in South Asia like CPEC through Pakistan and BRI through Nepal are getting effective where lots of investments are at stake. India has been active in constructing roads in Ladakh and in the Uttarakhand region bordering China. Aksai Chin illegally held by China is an extension of the dry plateau and is not part of the Himalayas. Now they are coming into a water rich area with three rivers- the Shyok, Galwan and ChangChenmo. This is a hugely strategic move. On the map it looks very complicated but they have a strategy, design and focus on the big picture. Right now, all their connectivity is north of the Karakoram Valley through which CPEC passes. They are for instance building a new airport in Tashkurgan, north of the Siachen glacier. Having declared Ladakh a UT and having decided to build infrastructure and connectivity in Ladakh, India should also have a matching forward objective to push for trade its strategic interest especially trade beyond the Karakoram Pass into the Mazar Valley of Xinjiang province and revive the old Leh-Kashgar Silk Road. Through Lepulekh, we should be asserting for

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WIKIMEDIA

Phyang Monastery in Ladakh

reopening our traditional pilgrimage and border trade routes with Tibet. The mantra of the LAC has been chanted for so many years that we react only to Gilgit Baltistan and not Aksai Chin. Why has the narrative of Aksai Chin not been kept alive? Right now, the Chinese show it as part of Xinjiang. It is time to change the narrative with China and not just with Pakistan on PoK. It is important we should also respond strategically to reach out to the world beyond Ladakh borders that have remained so far frozen in time.

is w the Hemer o ll a ld u o India sh y (along with oth l Monaster non-governmentage interested ons) to build a lar engo organisati -go-Wangchuk-Ch d in Gate Gyas war on its own lan or Shiv-d Demchok

The way forward is the following

The authentic J&K revenue map (Sambhat 1958) available in Leh Mafiz Khana should be used for all functional purposes. The UT Ladakh administration should distribute the entire starch of vacant land in eastern Ladakh (from Chumur to Karakoram) among the population of ‘Leh district’ for agriculture, horticulture and for other economic activities. The government must build infrastructure airport/road network in the entire eastern Ladakh which are already underway. The local authorities must re-habitat

the area with legal ownership to the people and don’t leave it vacant. The government must provide incentives for Changpa nomadic farmers presently settled in Leh (Kharnag-Ling settlement) to return to the borderland areas and encourage them to reactivate their nomadic Rebo herding. Security forces should be directed not prevent the movement of local Rebos along the border areas. The local government along with other concerned agencies must undertake massive forestation and

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large-scale grass-sowings activities through aerial seeding and use of dripirrigation technology. The NITI Aayog should prepare a defence-development plan with the help of Indian Army, Border Road Organisation and DRDO for area development. The Indian Air Force must reactivate the Fukche airport for both civilian and military use. Attempts are made to reopen and refurbish the old Chuchul airport base. Both Indian Army and PLA should revisit the idea of legalising the existing illegal border trade at specific places such as at Dhumtsele and Demchok. It should be experimented initially for 6 months during summer months. April – September, India should allow the Hemis Monastery (along with other interested non-governmental organisations) to build a large Gate Gyas-go-WangchukChengo or Shiv-dwar on its own land in Demchok so that the spot can be developed as a pilgrimage site like the Amarnath. Ambassador Stobdan is a native of Ladakh and an expert on border affairs

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DEALING WITH CHINA

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Chitkul Village in Himachal Pradesh as seen from the road to the ITBP checkpost

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Consistency has never been a virtue for the Communist rulers of China in settling their border disputes with the neighbours. They have used different principles for different countries. And this is the biggest bottleneck in arriving at an amicable solution to the present faceoff between the Chinese and Indian troops, argues PRAKASH NANDA

or nearly two months, troops of India and China have been facing each other at three places in Ladakh (Pangong sector, Galwan sector and Hot Springs). There have been minor skirmishes, but now the situation is that of a standoff, which, many analysts consider, is likely to be a prolonged one. Because, the Modi government, like its predecessors, cannot take the easy option of declaring that since the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the border has not exactly been identified and accepted by both the countries, perceptions of the LAC differ from time to time by their respective troops, that in these cases the two countries have devised ways to settle the differences through their local commanders and diplomatic means and that there is nothing to worry as both New Delhi and Beijing are committed to “the maintenance of peace and tranquilly” along the LAC as per their bilateral agreement on September 7, 1993. Committed to nationalism that the Modi government is (at least, it professes so), it cannot hide the facts like its predecessors that since 2002, the Chinese have been systematically transgressing the LAC into the Indian side. If the so-called perceptions vary, then why is that we have not come across a single instance of the Chinese complaining of Indian transgression? And, what is worse, the Chinese have not necessarily gone back to their previous positions after the diplomatic or localcommander-level talks have defused the situations in the past. In fact, in the present case, as Lt. General (Retd) HS Panag, Northern army commander 2006-2008, has written elsewhere, “the PLA has crossed the LAC and physically secured 3-4 km of our territory along Galwan River and the entire area between Finger 5 and Finger 8 along the north bank of Pangong Tso, a distance of nearly 8-10 km. There also seem to be minor incursions in the area of Hot Springs, in Ladakh’s Chang Chenmo River valley and at Demchok.” More worryingly, the territory the PLA has actually secured may be many times more because, he asserts, “the intrusion by regular troops is not linear like normal border patrols going to respective claim lines. If a brigade size force has secured 3-4 km in Galwan River, it implies that the heights to the north and south have been secured, thus securing a total area of 15 to 20 square km. Similarly, along Pangong Tso, the PLA brigade having secured 8-10 km on the north bank would have also secured the dominating heights to the north to physically control 35-40 square km. And if China subsequently realigns its claim line based on the areas secured, the net area

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CNN

The Pakyong Airport near the India-China border in Sikkim may evolve as a major base for Indian military mobilisation in case of an armed confrontation with China

secured would increase exponentially.” General Panag cautions that, “In Galwan sector, the PLA has secured the heights north and south of the Galwan river with. The PLA seems to have come across the LAC for 2-3 km in the valley and then climbed up the heights. It is also possible that it climbed the heights from China’s side of the valley and then moved along the heights westwards up to 3-4 km. What matters in mountains/ high-altitude is the control of the heights. The valleys become untenable when surrounding heights are with the enemy. It is likely that the PLA has secured the heights with two battalions with one held as reserve at the LAC.... it is pertinent to point out that there are no differing perceptions about the LAC along the Galwan River. The intrusion here is deliberate to threaten the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DS-DBO) Road and prevent us from defending it by securing the Galwan valley and the heights north and south of the river.” On Hot Springs, General Panag adds, “As per my assessment, at Hot Springs/ Gogra, the PLA with nearly a battalion has almost surrounded the post and effectively denied the approach to Kongka La pass, which lies on the LAC

e he Chinesk t , e s r o w t is bac And, wha necessarily gone fter t have no revious positions ato their p atic or local-com fused the diplom vel talks have de mander-leions in the past the situat

but is not held by us. The aim here is to prevent road construction by India to the Kongka La pass. At Hot Springs and Kongka La, which is 4-5 km away from Hot Springs, there is no “differing perception” about the LAC.” Let us realise that consistency has never been a virtue for the communist rulers of China in settling their border disputes with the neighbours. They have used different principles for different countries. And this is the biggest bottleneck in arriving at an

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amicable solution to the present faceoff between the Chinese and Indian troops. It may be noted that China shares land boundaries with as many as 14 neighbours (North Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam) and maritime boundaries with four(Japan and South Korea in the East China Sea, the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea). If its claims over the whole of South China Sea is to be conceded, then Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia will come to the picture, leave alone Taiwan that China claims to be its own. With most of these countries, China has had “disputes” over the territories; it has fought full-fledged wars with three of them- India, Vietnam and Russia. And, if voices emanating from the Chinese media are any indication, China is ready to fight a second war with India. As a communist country, it is quite understandable when it says that Beijing does not believe in the sanctity of all the “unequal treaties”, that were the “imperial products” when China was weak – and all these pertain to ‘British India”, Russia and Japan. But it

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The Thikse Gompa in Ladakh

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considers all the treaties or territorial gains made by the powerful Chinese emperors in the past to be sacred and non-negotiable. In other words, for the communist rulers in Beijing, territorial gains by a “strong” China in the past are sacrosanct, but territorial concessions or adjustments made by a “weak” China in the past are profane or blasphemous. For instance, the Chinese say that Tibet became a part of the Chinese empire when the great Mongol Genghis Khan annexed Tibet (most parts of it) in the early 13th century. It is a strange logic, because taken to its logical conclusion, one could argue that China is a part of Mongolia (Khan was then ruling over Beijing as well) and does not deserve to exist as an independent nation. Secondly, why are the Chinese not claiming a quarter of Europe, Russia and the whole of West Asia (Middle East) and Central Asia since these also constituted the Mongol empire of Genghis Khan? The problem with the Chinese version of history is where to draw the line. After all, it is also a fact that the pre-Mongol history of Tibet was militarily glorious. In the eighth century, the Tibetan empire was expanding at such a pace that at one time the then Chinese emperor had to flee his capital and a Tibetan nominee was put on the Chinese throne! Peace was restored in the year 821 with the conclusion of a Treaty, which laid down clearly the boundaries between China and Tibet. It read: “Tibet and China shall abide by the frontiers of which they are now in occupation. All to the East is the country of Great China; and all to the west is, without question, the country of Great Tibet….” But then, China has a selective knowledge of history. It has always believed in the dictum, and this is the first principle of its border-settlement strategy – “might is right”. Under this principle, it has annexed Tibet. And it has absorbed a part of Mongolia – Inner Mongolia. When China thinks that it is militarily not that strong to completely overwhelm the other party, it talks of the importance of “mutual trust and benefit”, seeking cooperation towards a “win-win” solution for everybody to succeed. And while pursuing this second principle, the Chinese ‘talk” (in mandarin, there is no equivalent to the word “negotiate”) sees everything as a “zero-sum game”, in which they set out to “win-lose” you. Their

s/ mountain of n i s r e t t What ma de is the control me u o high-altit s. The valleys bec t g the heigh when surroundin untenable e with the enemy r heights a

bargaining technique is based on Sun Tzu’s secret: “To subdue the enemy without fighting.” They will weaken you psychologically to have their way. And in this they utilise “the external forces” against you– the unfriendly international factors, existence of other enemies but China’s friends (like Pakistan in the case of India), and the carrot of the Chinese economic power that can be of help to you if you agree on a border-settlement. And if, this tactic does not work, then the Chinese will withdraw from the bargaining table and keep the things as they are till they are in a position to fight back.

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In fact, in the Chinese strategic thoughts, the idea of “Wei Qi” occupies an important place. It talks of checkmating and achieving victory through attrition rather than through forceful intervention. Wei Qi encapsulates the idea of a protracted campaign to gain relative advantage and in between emphasises strategic flexibility. Many a time, the Chinese have succeeded by utilising their second principle. The Russo-Chinese border was finally settled on the basis of this second principle after differences over 40 years (that included a war in 1969). It was not that there were serious territorial adjustments by both the sides in the end; the agreement was termed as “a refinement of the original border line” for laying “the crucial foundation” of Sino-Russian “strategic partnership”. Sometime, while working on the second principle China emphasises more on the economic component to buy over the other party. This it has done very successfully with North Korea and Kazakhstan. North Korea’s excessive dependence on China for food and security is too well-known for an explanation. The situation was all the more crucial for North Korea in 1962(soon after the Korean War) when it was “induced” to sign an

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A satellite picture of Brahmaputra Valley and Eastern Himalayas in Northeastern India

agreement delineating the 1416 km long border with the giant neighbour. In the case of Kazakhstan, with which it shares a border of 1700 km, China settled the issue in 1998 by offering a lucrative economic package, including investment in one of Kazakhstan’s biggest oil fields, a 3,000-km gas pipeline across Kazakhstan and a 15-year economic co-operation programme. It has played the same route of economicinducement in stabilizing border issues with Afghanistan, Pakistan (includes parts of Kashmir) and Myanmar. In fact, in the case of Myanmar, China has even abdicated its opposition to the “unequal treaties” imposed on it

le r the who e v o s im cla If Chinese hina Sea is to be nesia C of South then Brunei, Indo e , conceded ysia will come to ththat and Mala ave alone Taiwan picture, leims to be its own China cla

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by the imperial powers. For instance, it is totally opposed to the McMahon Line of 1914 that marked the effective boundary between Tibet and India (and Burma, then under the control of British India), and which India is committed to in settling the issue with China even now. But China has always rejected the Indian suggestion by describing the McMahon Line as “the product of imperialism”. But China did not hesitate to accept the validity of the eastern end of the same McMahon Line as the basis to delimit a section of the Sino-Burma border in the boundary agreement with Myanmar (Burma) in 1960. In reality, China needed friendship with Myanmar for a variety of reasons, stretching from exploiting that country’s oil and natural resources to the strategic linkage through roads, bridges and river-way between the Bay of Bengal and its Yunan province. There is a corollary to this second principle of China’s border-settlement, which we may refer as the third. Under this, economic inducement will be the primary motivation for the other party to agree with the Chinese, but in order to ensure that this succeeds, the Chinese will stake a very big claim on the territory to begin with, but all of a sudden they will get down to be seen as the most reasonable and accommodative for a friendly relationship with you. This the Chinese have done with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. China and Kyrgyzstan reached an agreement in 1999, defining 900 out of 1,100 km of the Kyrgyz-Chinese border. Accordingly, Kyrgyzstan received “70% of the disputed territory”. The demarcation of the boundary was finally completed in 2009. In the meantime, China has offered to help Kyrgyzstan build a power grid in the South, which would be the largest inter-governmental project between the two countries. That this agreement is still unpopular in Kyrgyzstan and there have been ethnic tensions over the issue (because of which China had temporarily closed its border in 2010) is a different issue. Similarly, China reached an agreement with Tajikistan in 1999, by forgoing “95 percent” of its original territorial claims. Apart from offering substantial economic assistance and investments, China was prepared for substantial concessions as it thought that a border settlement with the Tajiks will be helpful in controlling the surge of violence in its Xinjiang province that

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The Pangong Tso lake in Ladakh which witnessed the latest round of IndiaChina border brawl

is beset with Islamic fundamentalism and Uighur separatism. It is obvious that none of the above three principles of China has exactly worked with India, at least so far. Now, it cannot overwhelm India militarily; it cannot cite international factors to be unfavourable to India to seek a compromise; and it cannot afford to induce India economically for complying with the Chinese boundaryposition. Nor for that matter has China enhanced its reputation as a sincere party, given its scant regards for its own promises towards a compromise in the border issues. In 1960 and then in between 198085, China was talking of a “package deal”, by which it was prepared to accept an alignment in the Eastern Sector as understood by the McMahon Line, provided India conceded Aksai Chin to China in the Western Sector. But after 1985, China went back on the offer and claimed territories in the eastern sector. In 2005, China had said that any eventual border agreement with India would not affect ‘settled population’, but now it has broken that promise by hardening its claim on Tawang, a major town in Arunachal Pradesh. China has a serious credibility-

, in Beijing s r le u r t unis g” For comm gains by a “stron anct, l territoria e past are sacros r th China in rial concessions o k” a it r r but te o ts made by a “we e or n n e fa adjustm e past are pro th China in ous blasphem

paucity. In 1998, it signed a peace agreement with Bhutan, promising to ‘maintain peace and tranquillity on the Bhutan-China Border Areas’. And it now talks of 1890 –Convention between British India and China that apparently demarcated borders between Sikkim and Tibet. China claims that under this convention, the Doklam valley, where the Indian and Bhutanese troops have stopped the Chinese transgression, came under Tibet. But then, as Jawaharlal Nehru wrote

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in 1959, “This Convention of 1890 also defined the boundary between Sikkim and Tibet; and the boundary was later, in 1895, demarcated. There is thus no dispute regarding the boundary of Sikkim with the Tibet region. This clearly refers to northern Sikkim and not to the tri-junction which needed to be discussed with Bhutan and Sikkim and which is today the contentious area. And once more, let us not forget that the 1890 Treaty was an unequal treaty as Tibet, Sikkim and Bhutan were not involved.” Nothing could be said more aptly than the above on the Chinese duplicity. But then what can India to retrieve the situation? Obviously the standard local level military talks and diplomatic parleys at the official level are not working. Over the last two months many rounds of such talks have been held, the latest being on 6th June between the Corps Commander based in Leh and the Chinese Commander( Lt General Harinder Singh, XIV Corps Commander, and Major General Liu Lin, Commander of South Xinjiang Military District, in itself a rare phenomenon) in the Chushul-Moldo region. But to what effect? Nothing concrete seems to have emerged out of this meeting.

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Sunrise in Rangdum Valley in Suru-Zanskar Valley at Ladakh

The Chinese side never indicated that it will retreat from the areas that they have captured. Nor are they going to stop protesting against the infrastructural developments in our side, something the Chinese are relentlessly doing in their side. And yet our Ministry of External Affairs released a statement that said that the meeting “took place in a cordial and positive atmosphere. Both sides agreed to peacefully resolve the situation in the border areas in accordance with various bilateral agreements and keeping in view the agreement between the leaders that peace and tranquillity in the IndiaChina border regions is essential for the overall development of bilateral relations. ...Both sides also noted that this year marked the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries and agreed that an early resolution would contribute to the further development of the relationship.’ A typical bland diplomatic statement! One finds it really surprising how India has overlooked the fact of massive militarisation of Tibet as a whole, which, given the huge upgradation of military infrastructure there enables the PLA to rapidly mobilise its troops

that it is s k n i h t a in W h e n C h n o t t ha t s t r o ng t o e r th ly militari overwhelm the o ce n completely lks of the importa a t party, it trust and benefit of mutual

in the Indo-Tibet border for a military offensive against India anytime. But then, our governments – whether UPA or NDA- seem to have invariably joined forces with all those who sympathise with the Chinese behaviour. These proChina elements in India may not be exactly fifth columnists, but one thing is clear. All of them literally hate the United States. They are sure that China is the only country that can challenge the United States and end the so-called

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unipolar world or American hegemony. They, in the process, underplay the fact that in the name of multipolar world, China is striving for a unipolar Asia, where, true to its theory of “Middle Kingdom”, China will not allow another pole, whether it is India or Japan, to make Asia truly multipolar, let alone the world. Historically speaking, that has been the Chinese tradition. China throughout ages has done everything possible to halt the growth of Indian influence and dent India’s eminence. A 1974 poem by Mao Zedong displays the scorn with which China viewed India. The poem is like this: “The tiger avers its head, The tattered lion grieves, The bear flaunts its claws, Riding the back of the cow, The moon torments the sun, The pagoda gives forth light, Disaster comes to birth, The olive is seen waving.” As John W Garver explains, what Mao meant by this poem was that the tiger was the United states, the lion the Great Britain, the bear the Soviet Union, the moon the Islamic countries of West Asia, the sun the rich countries

of the West, the pagoda the Vietnamese revolutionary struggle, and its light the prospect of imminent victory. A pagoda giving forth light is a common Chinese literary smile indicating good fortune. The phrase disaster comes to birth referred to Mao’s dictum that either revolution would prevent war or war would lead to revolution, while the olive branch referred to the people’s desire for peace. The cow was India, which, according to Mao, has no talents and is only food or for people to ride and for pulling carts. The cow could starve to death if its master did not give it grass to eat. And even though this cow may have great ambitions, they are futile. In other words, it is not a new thing for China to reduce India’s potential, downgrade its image and diminish its influence. If anything, these illustrative, not exhaustive, examples expose the limitations of the “Hindi-Chini BhaiBhai” syndrome. As Teresita and Howard Schaffer, two former U.S. ambassadors, with long years of service in South Asia, have written elsewhere, the dominant view within China is that although India’s ambitions for a greater global role were “understandable,” in light of its improved economic performance, but in the end these are unrealistic. The argument here is that India is not yet ready for a major global role, that China’s Comprehensive National Power (CNP) exceeded India’s by a factor of three or four, and that the gap was widening. Many in Beijing also view that India’s missile programme is 10 years behind China’s. On the vexed border issue, the Schaffer couple found during their visit to China that no one there “expected this issue to be resolved within his professional lifetime; the best that could be hoped for was to manage it”. They were given a succession of presentations on 1960s-era opportunities for solving the border that had been squandered by India’s “excessive” ambitions. Solutions that might have worked in the 1960s, they heard repeatedly, were “no longer possible in light of the two nations’ power gap.” What can India do to checkmate the Chinese designs? While not dismissing the suggestions for augmenting our military might, I will stress on boycotting Chinese goods, something I advocated way back on April 14, 2008 in “The Tribune” newspaper (I was probably the first person in the country to advocate it on record). Under the title “Gandhigiri against Chinese Dadagiri”,

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Rakaposhi peak as seen from Karakoram Highway

al y ideologic n a e b t o n s There can stop Chinese good e w to t ground ny country. Bu tool entering a opt the Gandhian buy need to ad. Let’s pledge not to of boycott se goods e any Chin

I wrote that “the main component of rising Chinese power is its economic strength, particularly its foreign exchange reserve, that is, dollars. And this the Chinese have earned through export of their goods, which they produce cheaply by their cheap labour, in markets all over the world. In fact, for the most part, the Chinese enjoyed a system of “one-way free trade” in open markets of the Western countries while protecting its own market against western goods under some pretext or

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the other. As a result, the balance of trade was always in favour of China, and, that, in turn, endowed it with more and more dollars. This is the case even now. “In this age of the WTO, which ensures free trade, there cannot be any ideological ground to stop Chinese goods entering any country. But what we can do here is to adopt the Gandhian tool of boycott. Let us pledge ourselves not to buy Chinese goods. Once this Gandhian practice gains momentum, that is, if more and more people in the world, particularly in the United States – the biggest market for the Chinese goods, voluntarily stop buying Chinese products, it will have a salutary impact on the Chinese rulers. “The lopsidedness of the Chinese economy is so acute that an overwhelming majority of the Chinese people themselves continue to be too poor to buy their own country’s products. Once the Chinese rulers are unable to find buyers for their goods, their economic power will decline and their arrogance will evaporate. Let ‘Gandhigiri’ prevail over Chinese ‘dadagiri’.” My theme is more relevant today than in 2008 when I wrote on it.

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WHY CHINA IS DOING WHAT IT IS DOING AND DELHI IS DOING LITTLE Noted defence analyst BHARAT KARNAD suggests measures that New Delhi should take to deal with Beijing

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The Nathu La pass border crossing in Sikkim

he press reported that on May 23, 2020, the Army Chief, General MM Naravane, briefed Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh about the state of affairs in the Ladakh sector of the Line of Actual Control he visited in the previous days. That the National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat attended this briefing suggests the situation is more worrisome than the army has let on. Indeed, in a short interview carried by The Indian Express on May 14, 2020, Naravane was complacent, pooh-poohing the violently intrusive tack the PLA has taken in asserting China’s territorial rights to the detriment of India’s claims. “All such incidents are managed by established mechanisms where-in local formations from both sides resolve issues mutually as per established protocols and strategic guidelines given by the PM after the Wuhan and Mallaparam summits,” he averred. He clarified, helpfully, that such confrontations arise due to the unresolved “differing perceptions of the alignment of boundaries”. To tamp down on speculation regarding the potential for such incidents to snowball into active hostilities, he added that the Chinese aggression in the Pangong Tso Lake region of eastern Ladakh and on the Sikkim border in the Naku La section (on May 5-6) are not “corelated nor do they have any connection with other global or local activities”. In other words, that these were one-off incidences with no connecting policy skin and that the Indian media would do well not to play them up. However, on May 13 newspapers had reported serious injuries to a Colonel and a Major in the Pangong Tso environs because they were clubbed by the intruding Chinese troops with a new version of a medieval weapon — nailstudded wooden batons — that were being swung freely and with intention to do harm. In short, it was not latest in the series of mildly fricative pushing and shoving matches (as at Doklam in 2017) that have to-date typified Sino-Indian border interactions. Apparently, General Naravane and the Modi government do not consider the use against senior Indian field officers of long nail-studded wooden clubs by Chinese troops an escalation nor perceive such incidents to be other than of little account because their public statements seem to be drafted by the worst of the pandahuggers in the Ministry of External Affairs. The best possible spin on this is that Army Headquarters have imbibed a bit

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too much of the Wuhan and Mallapuram spirits brewed up by Modi than is good for India’s security, thereby indicating that they cannot be relied upon to call a spade a shovel where China and LAC are concerned, let alone to respond heftily in kind. Not for the forward deployed Indian units then the retaliatory joys of cracking open a few senior Chinese officers’ heads with a policy of ambush and hammer. A weak-kneed Indian government has long been suspected as infecting the Indian military with its preference for shambolic gestures instead. So, two Su-30s were dispatched from the Leh air base to patrol the skies around the Pangong Lake located at 5,000 metre altitude to do what good is anyone’s guess. Because a SinoIndian agreement to peacefully manage the LAC bars combat aircraft from flying within 10 kms of it. If an aerial gesture had to be made, why did the PMO (which has to clear any and every proactive measure or meaningful action and reaction on the 3,800 km-long China border) not deploy an armed helicopter or two for low-level flying the PLA troops could see to deter them from physically belabouring Indian soldiers in the cruel manner they did? Helicopters are permitted by the same accord to fly within one kilometre of LAC. In any case, the minimum response to such PLA atrocities should have seen Naravane decree that, along with normal infantry weapons, every Indian soldier be armed with a heavily weighted baseballtype bat with sharp protruding metal spikes he can pull out and smash PLA troopers’ faces with at the first hint of trouble at close quarters. This, of course, hasn’t happened. Indeed, Indian Army brass have taken great care to mention that these border ruckuses also involve Indian troops, thereby in effect equating Indian soldiers guarding the peace on LAC and the Chinese troops disrupting it, perhaps, because they expect the Indian jawans to stand still while getting whacked in their faces. In fact, the over-conciliatory tone adopted by Naravane with subdued action in train may now be the military’s norm. This even when PLA troops seem at liberty, when not wielding their 5.8 mm QBZ-95 assault rifle, to clobber Indian soldiers with metal spiked clubs. The Indian political and military leadership alike take comfort, ironically, from the short duration of these faceoffs, little realising that such PLA actions can, when not meant to intimidate, instantly lead to unanticipated but planned followup actions. Absent the sort of dense military use infrastructure build-up on

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USNI

Chinese military building artificial islands at Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea

the Chinese side of LAC and beyond into Indian territory, the Indian forces, will find such moves hard to resist. Ponder, for the nonce, the PLA’s modus operandi. The Pangong Tso Lake terrain features 8 hilly features, referred to as “fingers”. The western side of the lakefront is claimed by India, with Delhi stating that the LAC, running alongside these fingers, “co-terminates” with Finger-8. China, on the other hand, asserts its rights to almost all of the lake barring the 45 km lakefront held by India. By Delhi’s reckoning, Finger-2 lies wholly within Indian territory, except PLA built a 5 km motorable road in this area in 1998 when the Indian army was busy evicting the Pakistan army’s Northern Light Infantry from its redoubts in the Kargil heights, and which road the Chinese have patrolled with light vehicles ever since. There’s similar construction, for instance, in the Finger-4 area. In other words, even as China has constructed such roads, the Indian army and government contend that no such infrastructure has come up! The better, presumably, to deny that any violation of the LAC has taken place at all.

er e soldiers wing Chinese n ia d n I ud Two fa y the intr clubbed b h a new version odded troops wit weapon- nail-stu eing medieval atons- that were bntion wooden b eely and with inte s w u ng f r m to do har

Does this not mean that anytime the PLA aggressively stakes its interest in a piece of contested territory, Indian army and government all but readily concede it? So, the likely future is for a slow territorial aggrandisement by China — an exercise in which the Indian army and government are and will, in equal parts, be complicit and for which they are culpable.

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That leads us to the issue of why it is that Beijing decided to stir up trouble in the first place along the entire LAC, including the Central Sector, with armed interventions even in and around Barahoti, which until now was considered “settled” border, meaning about which neither side had any problems? There are two sets of reasons — one militarypolitical, the other internal. “It has come to our attention that some political forces in the US are taking China-US relations hostage and pushing our two countries to the brink of a new Cold War,” declared Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi last evening at a press conference in Beijing. The possibility of a Cold War of the kind that brought down the Soviet Union in the early-’90s and which the Xi Jinping regime believes Trump’s America can unleash, is very much on Zhongnanhai’s mind. The vilification campaign against China as the locus genesis of the COVID-19 global pandemic, the closing off of America to Chinese travellers and most exports, and the sanctioning of Chinese high-tech companies (Huawei, et al) is perceived

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by Trump as only the opening shot in this war. The undertaking by the World Health Organisation to examine the coronavirus spread and to assign responsibility for it, will provide Washington with the ammunition to begin orchestrating a much wider, more telling, international political criticism and effort to quarantine and globally sideline China by cutting off its revenue stream, market access, and strategic reach. In just the first two months of 2020, China’s exports, according to the South China Morning Post, dropped by 17.2 percent with that country for the first time since 2009 experiencing a trade deficit of $7.09 billion, compared to the surplus of $41.45 billion over the same period last year. This could be a prelude to a plummeting of the Chinese economy, a process that could accelerate should Beijing reject the demands by disparate countries of sub-Saharan Africa and even states like Pakistan to write off infrastructure projects-related debt totalling hundreds of billions of dollars that have so far been racked up. In that case China stands to lose both goodwill and markets and still be saddled with unserviced debt that Beijing can do nothing about short of wiping it off its slate at heavy cost to itself. Along with a downward spiralling economy, there’s the military angle. The

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The Daulat Beg Oldi ALG (Advanced Landing Ground) in Ladakh

at t mean th essively o n s i h t s Doe ag g r t he P L A a p i e c e of e m i t y n n a interest i r my stakes its erritory, Indian a ly t i contested nment all but read r a nd g o v e ? concede it

US Navy has increased its freedom of navigation patrols through the waters of the South China Sea at a time when Vietnam and Malaysia at the two ends of the Southeast Asian littoral, far from backing down, are actively protecting their maritime assets and brown water and blue water territories. And as if to worsen the situation from the optics as well as the substantive ends, Taiwan has resoundingly re-elected Tsai Ing-Wen to, in effect, sound a death knell for the “one country, two systems” conceit Beijing has nursed all these years. “We hope that this election result”, said President Tsai, “can give the Chinese government an accurate message: the Taiwanese people reject

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‘one country two systems’. We value our democratic lifestyle, and we defend our sovereignty.” Complicating the situation some more for China, Tsai has promised help to Hong Kong. Taiwan will, she said in a Facebook post, “even more proactively perfect and forge ahead with relevant support work, and provide Hong Kong’s people with necessary assistance”. In the last four months, there has been a 150 percent increase in immigrants to Taiwan from Hong Kong. The murmurings inside PLA circles about forcefully stopping the Independent Taiwan wagon in its tracks, now that it might pick up speed, by invading that fortified island-nation is mired in serious doubts about whether the Chinese military, despite the out-sized growth in its capabilities, can pull it off. Worse, the relative pimple of a problem — Hong Kong, is proving nettlesome; its people long used to democratic rights and freedoms are resisting Beijing’s attempts at curbing them. It prompted Beijing to simply end that erstwhile British colony’s status as an entity separate from China — no pretense here about two systems, etc. The President for life, Xi Jinping, suddenly finds his dilemma to be like the proverbial frog’s in the warming bowl of water — unable to jump out because China still benefits all round from propping up the current international system, but facing

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An aerial view of the Baltoro Glacier

far too many challenges to do nothing. With the welcoming world order China exploited since Deng Xiaoping’s time in the late 1970s collapsing around it, and Taipei and the Hong Kong people throwing down the gauntlet, Xi no doubt feels uneasy and, therefore, senses he has to do something. More so because internally there are sections within his support base in the PLA and the Communist Party which are inclined to blame Xi, in the instance of Taiwan and Hong Kong, for doing nothing and doing something a little late respectively, and on the other hand, for needlessly goading America into action by disregarding Deng’s aphorism about “hiding your strength, biding your time” by openly flexing China’s military and technological muscles guaranteed, even without an impulsively bellicose Trump in the White House, to get the US all riled up and ready to get at China’s throat. So, PLA felt compelled to let off steam safely and a calculating Beijing to allow it, but against whom? Hong Kong is in the bag — small change, Taiwan cannot be invaded, Japan cannot be run out of the Senkaku Islands, Russia cannot be pushed around, Vietnam cannot be browbeaten, and taking on the US is surely to end China’s dream run. That leaves the usual

bot h ds to lose ts and still n ta s a n i e Ch a n d ma r k goodwill d with unserviced hing t be saddle Beijing can do no its t f f a o h debt t rt of wiping it about sho eavy cost to itself slate at h

target — the weak-willed, strategically dim-witted, India to pick on. But this too is a balancing act. Beijing has to calibrate the hostilities in a way so as to not precipitate a war and lose a huge market that grows more precious by the loss of markets elsewhere, but nevertheless to show up a big India and America’s friend as a country without a fight in it, and to hold out this non-confrontation as an episode for other Asian states watching the show to learn from. In the circumstances, what should a self-respecting India do, assuming such an avatar emerges by magic?

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Well, Delhi can follow what I have been advocating over the last 20-odd years. In no particular order (1) ask Beijing to shut the fuck up on Kashmir, and take to wagging an admonishing finger at Beijing on every forum now that it has tethered the freedom loving Hong Kongese to the Chinese Communist totalitarian yoke; (2) publicly initiate negotiations with Taipei to upgrade the extant trade and consular relations into a full-fledged diplomatic relationship with the sovereign state of Taiwan, and use Taiwan’s manifest superiority in high-technology to upgrade India’s manufacturing base, and industrial and military wherewithal — a perfect riposte to Beijing’s recently raking up the Sikkim status issue; the “virtual participation” in President Tsai’s investiture ceremony by BJP MPs Meenakshi Lekhi and Rahul Kaswan ought to be a precursor event; (3) officially bury China’s spurious “one country, two systems” policy by withdrawing support for it with respect to Taiwan, Hong Kong and also Tibet, the last on the legally sound basis, I have long advocated, of Tibet not being genuinely “autonomous” in any way and hence no part of China as Delhi had originally recognised it, thereafter India should spearhead a worldwide “free Tibet” movement; (4)

COVER STORY

openly support the Uyghur cause and use the OIC to mobilise the Islamic opposition to China’s systematic denigration of the native Muslims there and for turning Xinjiang into a vast prison camp for the natives; (5) cut-off imports of all goods from China, and having done that negotiate small incremental increases in access to the Indian market in return for strict reciprocity in trade and commerce combined with a heavily punitive regime to prevent small and big time traders within India from transacting any goods from China, and the formalisation of LAC as formal border; (6) as current chairman presiding over WHO, use the underway scrutiny of China on the Covid-19 issue to skewer China and pillory it as an opaque and irresponsible state not worthy of respect from the international community; (7) for God’s sake, use the precedent of China’s secretly transferring nuclear weapons and missile technologies to Pakistan to pay back Beijing in the same coin, even if 40 years too late, by onpassing the very same technologies, or better still, the nuclear warheaded Brahmos cruise missile, to any state on China’s periphery desiring the ultimate means of militarily keeping Beijing quiet. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, are you listening?!, and (8) by way of meta-

INDIAN NAVY

India’s lone operational aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya during sea trials

ctually dovish a l il w ia What Ind a long habit of sla tory owing to and a self-abnega nue thinking is this: It will conti g mindset at it is doing- tryinvour doing wh eously to curry fa hington simultan Beijing and Was with both

strategic arrangements, minimise China’s global salience by weaponising BRICS by excising China from it and getting Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa (BRIS) into a loose and informal security coalition; and to complement it by sewing up a similar coalition to India’s east — the ‘Mod Quad’ — the quadrilateral of India, Japan, Australia, and a group of rich and capable Southeast Asian countries minus the unreliable United States. It is an organic security scheme that will permanently box in China politically, militarily and economically with a marginal, extra-

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June 2020

territorial, role for the US should it want one. What India will actually do owing to a long habit of slavish thinking and a self-abnegatory mindset is this: It will continue doing what it is doing — trying simultaneously to curry favour with both Beijing and Washington — a high theme of the late K. Subrahmanyam’s supposedly superlative thinking Modi subscribes to and is now bureaucratically furthered by his son, S. Jaishankar as MEA minister. It is a policy previous government, for reasons that are incomprehensible, have been entranced by and which Modi feels will serve him as well. But he does not see, as Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh did not in their time at the helm, about what will, in fact, transpire. In attempting to be too clever by half, India will end up getting sucker-punched by both. But to be laid low thus requires India to be a sucker, and that is what India has time and again proven to be. And a sucker, as WC Fields reminded us, never gets an even break. Bharat Karnad is Professor for National Security Studies, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi. This piece had appeared originally in the author’s blog “Security Wise”

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TRACKED METAL BEASTS OF THE INDIAN ARMY AMARTYA SINHA reviews the fleet of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s tanks and armoured fighting vehicles

he two world wars in the last century witnessed widespread casualties among soldiers from both camps and forced many European nations to invest in better research and development initiatives to develop better armour and boosted-firepower in order to counter threats on tactical-level battlefield. With the evolution of high-explosive warheads, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), landmines and grenades capable of taking out infantrymen and vehicles, shielding

the soldiers and officers from enemy firepower became an abject necessity. Tanks and armoured vehicles were developed to cater to the needs of professional armies all across the world to take out enemy positions and mobile targets through LRDLOS (Long Range Direct Line of Sight) firing and to protect the soldiers inside the hardened armoured compartment from hostile fire. While the evolution of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s armoured fleet dates back to the 1950s, the country faced two massive ground wars with Pakistan

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

in 1965 and 1971 which witnessed widespread use of tanks, tank destroyer vehicles and armoured personnel carriers (APCs). As of 2020, with more than 4500 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) divided into 67 armoured regiments, the Indian Army has one of the largest tank fleets in the world. But tracked-armour modernisation is a work in progress.

Main battle tanks (MBTs) in operation

After the extraordinary performance of the Soviet-made T-55 tanks in the

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A side view of the indigenously developed Arjun Mark-1 battle tank

T-90 tanks of the Indian Army participating at the 2020 Republic Day parade in New Delhi PIB

HEMANT RAWAT

Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971, there was a rising chorus within the Indian military establishment for acquiring of a far superior and sturdy platform for future battles. By the late 1970s, Indian Army Headquarters also decided to acquire new-generation replacements for its British-origin fleet of Royal Ordnance Factories-built Centurion and Vijayanta tanks, which were based on the licenced production of the Vickers MBT, and consequently, paper evaluations concerning the firepower and mobility characteristics of the two principal contenders being offered for full in-country production- the AMX40 developed by GIAT Industries of France and the Chieftain-800 (which later evolved into the Challenger 1 from Royal Ordnance Factories (then owned by British Aerospace PLC) – were conducted by the Indian Army. Between these two contenders, the army had by the early 1980s zeroed in on the 43-tonne AMX-40 MBT, which was still on the drawing boards and was meant to be powered by a 1,100 horsepower Poyaud V12X 12-cylinder

diesel engine coupled with a LSG-3000 automatic power shift transmission built by RENK Aktiengesellschaft of Germany (offering a power-to-weight ratio of 25.6 horsepower per tonne and armed with a 120 mm smoothbore cannon). However, AMX-40 had only marginal protection by battlefield standards of 1980s. After coming back to power, the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi requested additional evaluation, including MBTs from the USSR, following which the Soviet Union's Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations made a formal offer to the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) to supply the 37-tonne T-72M Ob'yekt 172M-E4 MBT off-the-shelf, and according an approval for licensedproduction of the 41.5-tonne T-72M-1982 Ob'yekt 172M-E6 to the MoD-owned Heavy Vehicles Factory (HVF) at Avadi. By early 1981, two T-72Ms—powered by a 780-horsepower diesel engine, armed with 125mm 2A46M smoothbore gun and offering a power-to-weight ratio of 20 horsepower a tonne, were subjected to an exhaustive series of in-country firepower and mobility trials by the Indian Army. After review of trial results, T-72M and T-72-1982 (powered by a Model V-84MS four-stroke 12-cylinder multi-fuel engine developing 840 horsepower and offering a power-to-weight ratio of 18.8 horsepower/tonne) were selected as the Army's future MBTs, and a procurement contract for 2418 T-72s was subsequently inked, all of which are currently in service with the Indian Army. Following the induction of the T-72s a need was felt to import an MBT with a higher operational range. And thus, began the acquisition process of the T-90s.

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June 2020

The T-90 is a third-generation Russianmade battle tank. Armed with a 125mm smoothbore main gun (MG), 1A45T fire control system, upgraded engine and gunner’s thermal sight, it is validated as a massive force multiplier for ground forces. The standard protective measures of T-90 include a blend of steel and composite armour, smoke grenade dischargers, Kontakt-5 explosive-reactive armour and Shtora-1 infrared Anti-tank Guided Missile jamming system. In 2001, India acquired 310 T-90S tanks from Russia of which 124 were delivered as completely built units (CBUs) and the rest 186 were assembled from kits delivered in various stages of completion with an emphasis on shifting production to domestic means. The T-90 was selected because it is a direct evolution of the T-72 that India manufactures with 60 percent of the parts common with the T-90, thus simplifying training and maintenance. India opted to acquire the T-90 in response to numerous delays in the production of indigenously developed Arjun main battle tanks, and to counter Pakistani deployment of the Ukranian-made T-80 tanks in 199597. The T-90S platforms were made by Uralvagonzavod and the engines were delivered by Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant. A follow-up contract, worth $800 million, was signed on October 26, 2006 for 330 more T-90M Bhishma MBTs that were manufactured in India by Heavy Vehicles Factory at Avadi, Tamil Nadu. The T-90M Bhishma is a vehicle tailored for Indian service, improving upon the T-90S, and developed with assistance from Russia and France. The tanks are equipped with the French Thales-built Catherine-FC thermal sights, and utilise

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Kontakt-5 ERA in addition to the primary armour which consists of laminated plates and ceramic layers with high tensile properties. The new welded turrets first developed for the Indian T-90S Bhishma have more advanced armour protection than the early cast turrets. In April 2008, the Indian Army sent a request for proposal to Rafael, BAE Systems, Raytheon, Rosoboronexport, Saab, and IBD Deisenroth Engineering for an active protection system for the T-90S Bhishma. The contract was worth $270 million. Saab's LEDS-150 finally won the bid in January 2009.A third contract, worth $1.23 billion, was signed in December 2007 for 347 upgraded T-90Ms, the bulk of which were licence-assembled by HVF. The army hoped to field a force of over 21 regiments of T-90 tanks and 40 regiments of modified T-72s. The Indian Armybegan receiving its first T-90M main battle tanks in completely knocked-down (CKD) condition from Russia’s Nizhny Tagil-based Uralvagonzavod JSC by the end of 2009. The T-90M features the 'Kaktus K-6' bolted explosive reactive armour (ERA) package on its frontal hull and turret-top. It is fitted with an enhanced environmental control system supplied by Israel's Kinetics Ltd for providing cooled air to the fighting compartment, has additional internal volume for housing the cryogenic cooling systems for new-generation thermal imagers like the THALES-built Catherine-FC thermal imager (operating in the 8–12 micrometre bandwidth). In all, India plans to have 1,640 T-90 tanks in service by the end of 2020.The first batch of 10 licence-built T-90M Bhishmas was inducted into the Indian army on August 24, 2009. All of

ore than Ts) m h it w , B 0 As of 202 n Battle Tanks (M 4500 Mai to 67 armoured y has divided ins, the Indian Arm s in regiment largest tank fleet one of t he the world

these vehicles were built at the Heavy Vehicles Factory at Avadi, Tamil Nadu. A $1.4 billion purchase of 354 new T-90MS tanks for six tank regiments for the China border has also been approved which would take the total number of T-90 tanks in the Indian Army's inventory to 2011, thus making India the world's third largest operator of T-90 tanks. India plans to have 21 tank regiments of T-90S by fall 2020, with 45 combat tanks and 17 training and replacement units per regiment, for a total of 62 each. On September 17, 2013, the Ministry of Defence finally approved the production of 235 T-90 systems under Russian licence for under a contract worth $1 billion.

Indigenous efforts

With the T-72s being acquired during the 1970s, a need was felt by India’s strategic establishment to design and build an indigenous heavy tank for self-reliance in the long run. Thus, the Arjun MBT was formulated. Arjun is an

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India’s BMP-2 ‘Sarath’ armoured fighting vehicles during an exercise in Rajasthan

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

Indian designed and developed thirdgeneration main battle tank. It features a 120mm main gun with indigenously developed armour-piercing fin-stabilised discarding-sabot ammunition, one PKT 7.62mm coaxial machinegun, and a NSVT 12.7mm machinegun. Powered by a single MTU multi-fuel diesel engine rated at 1,400 horsepower, it can achieve a maximum speed of 67 kms an hour and a cross-country speed of 40 kms per hour. Arjun is operated by a four-member crew: a commander, a gunner, a loader and a driver. Automatic fire detection, suppression and NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) protection systems are included. All-round anti-tank warhead protection by the newly developed Kanchan armour is claimed to be much higher than available in comparable third-generation tanks of the category. Early development versions of the Arjun were held by the 43 Armoured Regiment which were displayed during the 2001 Republic Day parade in New Delhi. The first batch of 16 production version Arjun tanks were received in 2004 and they were provided as a squadron to the 43 Armoured Regiment. The regiment was later made up to 45 tanks on May 25, 2009 thus making it the first Arjun regiment of the Indian Army. At present, the Indian Army operates a fleet of 248 Arjun Mark1 and 118 Arjun Mark-2 tanks. The union government is planning to raise the fleet levels up to 500 Arjun MBTs in the 2020s.

Armoured troop carriers

With the tanks inducted, the fleet had to be supplemented with armoured personnel carriers (APCs). The APC fleet leading to a formidable mechanised infantry capability was conceived as a force multiplier for the tactical-level battlefield. Thus, the BMP-2 and was inducted as the backbone of Indian Army’s mechanised infantry during the 1980s. The main armament of the vehicle is a turret with a stabilised 30mm 2A42 autocannon with dual ammunition feeds, which provide a choice of 3UBR6 AP-T and 3UOR6 HET/ 3UOF8 HE-I ammunition and 9M113 Konkurs anti-tank guided missile. The gun has a selectable rate of fire, either slow at 200 to 300 rounds per minute or fast at 550 rounds per minute. The original stabilisation provides reasonable accuracy up to a speed of about 35 kilometres per hour. The commander's 1PZ-3 sight is specifically designed for anti-aircraft operation and combined with the high maximum elevation of 74 degrees, it allows the 30mm cannon to be used effectively against helicopters and

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The future is autonomous

Unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) are robotic vehicles which operate without any direct physical human interference. Such vehicles can be used in area surveillance as well as combat operations against the enemy. UGVs can also be used in mine-clearing operations in the tactical level battlefield. Armed with sensors, these vehicles can be operated in autonomous mode as well as with the help of remotecontrol units. Based on a durable chassis, UGVs include components like platform, sensors, control systems, guidance interface, communication links and systems integration features. Based on the ATV (All-Terrain Vehicle) platform, UGVs can be based on tracks and wheels

An Indian military T-72 main battle tank (MBT) in action

THEDEFENCEPOST.COM

slow flying aircraft. The turret traverse and elevation are powered and it can traverse 360 degrees in 10.28 seconds and elevate through 74 degrees in 12.33 seconds. A coaxial 7.62mm PKT machinegun is mounted to the left of the 30mm cannon, and 2000 rounds of ammunition are carried for it. Behind the turret is the troop compartment that holds six troops, the whereas the seventh sits just behind the driver. The BMP-2 fleet was further supplemented with BTR-50 armoured vehicles. The BTR-50 is a Soviet-made vehicle based on tracks. The hull of the vehicle is made of all-welded steel with the crew compartment at the front, the troop compartment at the centre and the engine compartment at the rear. It has the ability to transport up to 20 fully equipped infantrymen, who sit on benches that run across the full width of the troop compartment. They mount and dismount the APC by climbing over the sides of the hull. The driver sits in the centre of the front of the hull and has three vision blocks and periscopes located at the top of the sloping glacis plate. During night operations, the centre periscope can be swapped for the TVN28night vision device (NVD), which gives the driver clear vision up to 60 meters. The BTR-50 is amphibious due to its flat, boatshaped hull which is hermetically sealed and ensures minimal resistance when the APC is afloat. The vehicle’s armour is composed of homogeneous, cold rolled, welded steel- 13mm at the front, 10mm on the sides and top and 7mm at the rear. A total of 200 BTR-50s are currently in service with the Indian Army. The large of troops it could carry as compared to the BMP-2, proved its mettle and validated its force-multiplier effect during exercises like Operation Brasstacks.

t full-thrus rn o g to e It is tim uilding a mode towards b ry highly mobile ce 21st centu anised ground for y and mech f hitting the enem capable o urts the most where it h

for mobility. The sensors onboard the UGV may include compasses, odometers, inclinometers, gyroscopes, cameras for triangulation, laser and ultrasound range finders, and infrared technology. While some countries like China, Russia and the United States have made giant strides in the development of UGV technology, India is catching up too. DRDO’s Daksh UGV is one of the Indian projects which have reached the stage of operational deployment. The batteryoperated autonomous vehicle is capable of tracking down hidden explosives, climbing staircases, negotiating deep slopes and navigating narrow corridors. It can lift objects and scan them with a portable X-ray device and can diffuse bombs with a water jet disruptor. Daksh can even break open door-locks with the help of a shotgun and can scan cars for explosives. While cutting edge Russian unmanned combat ground vehicles (UCGV) like the Uran-9 have reached the stage of operational deployment and

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June 2020

have witnessed action in Syria, India is yet to develop such heavyweight UCGVs for replacing the existing fleet of tanks and armoured vehicles. It is high time that India increases R&D expenditures in this domain.

A decisive push required

While the Indian Army has come a long way since the early days of heavy armour deployment, the force needs a massive modernisation push from the incumbent NDA-3 government. Recently some Indian private sector corporations have successfully designed and developed latest generation armoured fighting vehicles with indigenous knowhow. The Tata Kestrel, Mahindra Marksman and Ashok Leyland PPC 4X4 vehicles are some world-class products which need serious consideration for orders by the Indian Army and paramilitary forces. Larsen and Toubro has also established the country’s first Armoured Systems Complex at Hazira in Gujarat for manufacturing Future Infantry Combat Vehicles (FICV), Future-Ready Combat Vehicles (FRCV) and future battle tanks. At a time when the Indian strategic establishment is gearing up the with the deployment of Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) for cross-border action under the ‘Cold-Start’ doctrine, the nation’s armed forces need a much more robust and large fleet of latest generation tanks and armoured vehicles which will prove to be the lifeline of Indian armoured corps during cross-border incursions and raids. It is time to go full-thrust towards building a modern 21st century highly mobile and mechanised ground force capable of hitting the enemy where it hurts the most.

FOCUS

KC 390 FLIES INTO TURBULENCE

ith the deal between Embraer and Boeing being called off, it is the KC 390, the pride of Embraer’s military and the flagship product from the defence division of Embraer, that stands at the cross-roads. Embraer desperately needs new partnerships for the KC-390 and its commercial business. Will it be an Indian or Chinese company? Or will it be Airbus? When Boeing terminated its $4.2 billion deal with for a majority stake in Embraer’s commercial aviation business it was a stake right in the heart of the defence collaboration between the two companies that had been formalised only months earlier at the Dubai Air Show in November 2019. In fact, the implications for the KC 390 — the pride of Embraer’s Military and the flagship product from the defence division of Embraer — are huge.

The Achilles’ heel, as far as Embraer was concerned, has always been to find the marketing muscle to make the KC390 a globally competitive aircraft. That would have been possible with the huge bandwidth that Boeing would have brought to the table with its behemoth marketing network across the world. It would have opened up new markets and significantly enlarged opportunities in terms of sales. In fact, this new market pitch was at the core of the agreement between the two companies: Boeing and Embraer agreeing to work together to “promote and develop new markets” for the KC-390. Embraer was to own a 51 per cent stake in the KC-390 joint venture, with Boeing owning the rest. Now all that has gone up in smoke. Post the acrimonious parting, Boeing let it be known that the previous teaming agreements (signed as early as 2014-15) to support Embraer with marketing the

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

C-390 internationally would hold. But no one takes that seriously. The bad blood between the two former partners could put paid to any such ambitions. The Embraer KC-390 Millennium is a mid-sized double-engine military tactical transport aircraft designed to set new standards in its category while presenting the lowest life-cycle cost of the market. It can perform a variety of missions such as troop and cargo air delivery, aerial refuelling, search and rescue and forest fire fighting. Following years of various tests and certifications since 2009, Embraer in August 2019 delivered to the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) the first multi-mission airlift KC-390. This paved the way for preparations for the aircraft’s entry into service by FAB’s First Troop Transport Group (1st GTT). Embraer has been conducting theoretical and practical training with the Air Force teams to start operations.

FOCUS

‘Embraer KC-390 Millennium’ military transport aircraft undergoing the take-off run

With Boeing and Embraer parting ways, the KC-390 has run into some turbulence. It will now have to create a network to sell the aircraft and find new customers. Also, possibly a new partner EMBRAER

Back to the Boeing-Embraer saga: Any way in November, the aircraft was rebranded as the C-390 Millennium that was multi-mission capable with the original being the aerial refuelling variant. It was also announced that the Joint Venture between Boeing and Embraer would be called: BoeingEmbraer Defence. It would have been specifically to sell the C-390. So gungho was the partnership just four months before it fell apart that Being spokesmen were talking of “100 percent of the sales of the C-390 programme”, through the JV. The KC-390 has hit several milestones this year. In August, Portugal became the first international customer to commit to the aircraft, inking a contract with Embraer to purchase five KC-390s, a flight simulator and support. A month later, the company delivered the first KC-390 to the Brazilian Air Force, and a second aircraft was delivered in December.

The big question now is whether Embraer seeks out partnerships elsewhere for either the KC-390 or its commercial business. Will someone emerge in 2021 or 2022 who ties up with Embraer? Will it be an Indian or Chinese company? There are many who are also talking about Airbus getting into the act and taking Boeing’s position on the C-390. Airbus — like Boeing — does not offer a medium cargo transport aircraft that directly competes against the C-130. Strategically, the Brazilian defence market — from Boeing’s perspective — mattered when that country was looking for fighters. However, the tapping of telephones by the US government of multiple world leaders including then Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff put paid to those hopes as the Brazilians went with Saab Gripen (they rejected the Super Hornet and they went with the Gripen). At present, Embraer is setting

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June 2020

up a final assembly line in Brazil where it will manufacture the Gripen E. Also, the two companies are collaborating on the Erieye — an airborne early warning and control system integrated aboard Embraer’s E-99 and other business jets. So, Saab is a key cog in the wheel. How it will go in the future is anybody’s guess. The manufacturer also received letters of intent from the Czech Republic (a partner in the programme), as well as Argentina, Chile, Colombia and aviation services firm- SkyTech. As part of its purchase agreement with the Brazilian Air Force, Embraer also signed a fiveyear services and support contract which makes it responsible for logistical and engineering support, maintenance control, component repair, support staff for the aircraft’s entry into service and materials supply. The agreement also encompasses structural analysis, maintenance bulletin development, aircraft painting and other services. As of May 2020, around 20 per cent of the worldwide transport fleet (869 aircraft) is made up of the Lockheed Martin C-130 or L-100. C-390 Millennium is prominently seen as a direct replacement of the ageing Lockheed Martin C-130 fleets in many air forces around the world. So, it is quite evident that the C-390 platform needs be salvaged by finding a new investor. This leaves a formidable room for many global aerospace giants including India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to step in. It is time to hit the right chords at an opportune moment in the post Covid-19 scenario. The KC-390 was developed as a joint venture project between the Brazilian Air Force and Embraer to set new standards for efficiency and productivity in its class, while presenting the lowest lifecycle cost in the market. The programme represents a significant advance in terms of technology and innovation for the Brazilian aeronautics industry and an operational improvement for FAB's transport aviation. In 2014, FAB signed a firm order for 28 units of the KC-390 aircraft and initial logistical support. The aircraft are produced at the Gaviao Peixoto factory, in Sao Paulo state. The KC-390 was granted the Type Certificate by the Brazilian civil aviation authority ANAC (Agencia Nacional de Aviacao Civil) in 2018, when it achieved Initial Operational Capability (IOC), which ensures that the necessary conditions have been met for the aircraft to start operations.

DEFBIZ

Vivek Lall joins General Atomics

prominent IndianAmerican aerospace and defence expert, Vivek Lall, has been appointed as the chief of one of the world’s leading privately held nuclear and defence companies: General Atomics Global Corporation, based in California. Lall, who played key roles in some major Indo-US defence deals between India and the US, had resigned in April as Vice President of Aeronautics Strategy and Business Development at Lockheed Martin to spend more time with his family in San Diego. “With Dr Lall’s expertise, GA Global will expand its global footprint for managing sales, service, and international industrial collaboration in strategically important countries like Japan, Australia, the UAE, and others,” GA said in a statement. In his capacity as chief executive of strategic development at GA from 2014 to 2018, Lall played a key role in the decision of the Trump Administration to sell missile-capable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and MH-60 Romeo naval helicopters to India, a nonNATO country.

Army’s Yuma Proving Ground, in collaboration with the US

Rosoboronexport to roll out state-of-the-art radar

Navy and Arnold Defense, a premier manufacturer of rocket launchers. The team used Arnold’s FLETCHER 2.75-inch/70mm Weapon System concept.

BAE Systems ground-launches APKWS rockets

AE Systems successfully completed test shots of its APKWS laser-guided rockets from a tactical configuration ground-based weapon system for the first time. The proof-ofconcept testing demonstrated the flexibility of APKWS rockets to deliver standoff precision strike capabilities for ground forces, providing war fighters with a unique solution for engaging targets with greater range than small arms fire and without the need for air support. BAE Systems tested the APKWS rockets at the US

RT offers SkyStar aerostats for delivery

ountries looking for costeffective surveillance means to secure borders from illegal crossing during Covid-19, have an irresistible offer from RT LTA Systems Ltd., developer and manufacturer of the SkyStar aerostats family. RT's SkyStar 180 aerostat is a cost-effective mean for border control, HLS, defence, and security missions, as it provides persistent surveillance and communication over long periods at a very minimal cost. Only

two people are required to deploy the system. The SkyStar aerostats can operate in harsh weather conditions, and offer availability of over 85 percent in any given area. The systems have already accumulated more than 2 million operational hours worldwide. RT has recently inaugurated a new and elaborated assembly line which allows a much faster and more efficient production process.

SC Rosoboronexport has started marketing work to bring on the world market of armaments the 59N6-TE mobile three-dimensional radar, developed and produced by the JSC “Federal Research and Production Center “Nizhniy Novgorod Research Institute of Radio Engineering” (NNIIRT). The 59N6-TE mobile three-dimensional station is an exclusively Russianmade product, which implies present-day Russian hardware components with digital processing and signal generation. It is fully solidstate and has high potential together with enhanced jamming resistance. The 59N6-TE is a radar of medium and high altitude, having a decimeter wavelength range. Apart from hypersonic targets, it also effectively detects aerodynamic and ballistic objects.

Rafael to supply M-346FA with Litening-5 and RecceLite

afael Advanced Defence Systems will supply 5th generation Litening-5 and RecceLite systems to equip Leonardo's M-346FA light combat aircraft. This is the first integration of 5th generation electro-optical (EO) pods to Leonardo's M-346FA platform. The M-346FA is the multi-role combat variant of

the most advanced jet trainer that has been designed for a wide range of training

capabilities, long-term reliability and cost-effective operations.

The FA variant is also able to operate very effectively as a multi-role tactical aircraft, capable of air-to-surface, air-to-air and tactical reconnaissance missions. Integrated with Rafael's pods, the jet will now have combat-proven, stand-off capabilities using the Litening-5 multi-spectral airborne targeting pod. The

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

Litening-5 pod is in use by 27 air forces and carried by over 25 platforms globally. Litening-5 delivers real-time, forward-looking infrared (FLIR+SWIR) and day HD colour camera imagery. Its high-resolution sensors and effective EO/ IR (infrared) design ensures reliable operation at significant stand-off ranges.

DEFBIZ

Rolls-Royce opens its digital academy

olls-Royce is publishing, for free, its world-class digital skills training programme to help people and businesses around the world prepare for a potentially digital-centric recovery from COVID-19. The first suite of courses includes introductions to data science, artificial intelligence, machine learning, coding and digital culture. Head of the Digital Academy at Rolls-Royce, Manisha Mistry, said: “Many people and businesses are experiencing incredibly tough circumstances and these free training packages are a tangible way for us to offer some help. Many have been tried and tested by RollsRoyce employees. They can help people prepare for work and businesses transform ready for a digital future, just like we’ve been doing at Rolls-Royce for the last couple of years.”

Israel will lease Heron UAVs to Greece

srael and Greece have signed the first agreement to lease the Israeli Heron system developed by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). In light of the COVID-19 crisis, the agreement was signed digitally. Israel will lease the Heron system in its maritime configuration to Greece over three years, with an option to purchase the system upon completion of the leasing period. The Heron system, equipped with both day and night activity platforms, maritime patrol radars and satellite communications,

offers extended operational endurance in a wide range of scenarios including maritime

patrol, marine and land border protection, search and rescue, disaster management and more. The system is operational in the IDF and naval forces around the world.

MH-60R contract awarded by India

ockheed Martin has been awarded a modification contract to a previously awarded firm-fixed-price, costplus-fixed-fee deal. This modification provides for the production and delivery of three MH60R Seahawk maritime choppers for the navy and 21 MH-60Rs for India.

BEML delivers modern MEMU train

EML has dispatched prototype of indigenously developed Mainline Electric Multiple unit (MEMU) train to Indian Railways. The MEMU with 3-phase onboard propulsion system, is an existing Indian Railways approved Carbody

design. The train has regenerative braking system for energy saving, and saves around 30 per cent of energy thus reducing the carbon footprint. Energy saving LED lights are also used for illumination in the coaches. AK Srivastava takes over as Director: AK Srivastava, has assumed charge on June 1, 2000 as Director (Defence Business) and nominated as member of the Board of BEML Limited. Prior to this elevation, he was Chief General Manger, BEML Defence (Marketing).

“India’s selection of the MH-60R ‘Romeo’ multi-mission helicopter provides the Indian Navy with the most advanced anti-surface/ anti-submarine warfare helicopter in operation today. The MH-60R offers the lowest risk and best value option because the aircraft is already in full production and globally supportable.

A400M completes key certification

he Airbus A400M new generation airlifter has successfully achieved certification of the simultaneous

paratrooper dispatch capability and completed the full industrial development of the type’s paratrooping deployment capacity, with a maximum dispatch of 116 paratroopers using both side doors (58 + 58). Earlier in May, the aircraft had achieved a new decisive milestone after the certification of its automatic low-level flight capability, offering a unique in its class capability for a military transport aircraft. The certification campaign, performed throughout the month of

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June 2020

April, 2020 above the Pyrenees and central France, involved operations down to 500 feet, including transitions from low level flight to other operations like aerial delivery. Airbus wins SatCom deal: Airbus has won the new satellite communications framework contract named ‘EU SatCom Market’ will allow EU member states to centralise their satellite communications requirements and obtain coordinated, more economical and effective access to these services.

DEFBIZ

EJECTION SEAT SAGA

REDEFINING THE NEW NORMAL OF COMBAT AVIATION The Collins ACES II®’s stable, 9-13 G catapult at ambient temperatures is also important when the pilot is operating aircraft in hot environments. High temperatures affect the acceleration during the catapult phase and when the risks of spinal injuries tremendously increase around 20 G’s, having some buffer will ensure pilot safety, writes DON BORCHELT The Evolution Of The Ejection Seat In barely more than a century, the world of aviation safety has progressed incredibly. In the book “Flying”, written by Gustav Hamel and Charles Cyril Turner in 1914, the authors present several treatises on early aircraft safety wherein they debate crash-resistant wicker cockpits and the merits of whether it’s better to use a seat belt, or if it’s better to be thrown free of the cockpit when crash-landing. Later in the book, another aviation pioneer, Henry Farman said about flying “it will be so safe that we shall hear no more of the need to carry parachutes or other safety devices, for the contingency of having to abandon the machine in the air will seem an absurdity to contemplate.” The world of combat aviation has made tremendous gains in safety and mishap prevention. Accordingly, the ejection seat has continued to evolve as a critical component of modern combat and trainer aircraft. Previously, aircraft manufacturers were responsible to design and installation of ejection seats into their aircraft. However, after some introspection and incident analysis, authorities came to realise that ejection seats had wildly different performance characteristics. Further, while ejection seats were saving lives, their instability and other basic design characteristics

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

DEFBIZ

resulted in frequent injuries to the pilot. Survival may seem by some the sole raison d'être of an ejection seat, but for combat aircraft potentially operating in contested areas, hostile environments or remote mountainous locations, the ability to deliver the pilot safely uninjured to the ground is critical. The aircrew must be able to immediately seek shelter, use the radio to call for rescue, and if required by the situation, to be able to escape and evade capture while doing so. A pilot suffering an ejection-induced back injury will be tremendously disadvantaged and his or her chance for survival immediately jeopardised. Aviation authorities realised this stark reality in the late 1960s and early 1970s where many pilots survived their initial ejection, but were unable to evade subsequent capture due to back or neck injury.

ACES II®

Fast forward to 1978 when Collins Aerospace introduced the ACES II ejection seat. The US Air Force (USAF), together with industry partners endeavored to develop a lightweight, high performing ejection seat that could fit into to a wide variety of aircraft. Since that day, The ACES II has saved 670 fighter pilots and aircrew worldwide flying a range of aircraft including all variants of the F-15, F-16, B-1, B-2, A-10 and most recently the F-22. As important

as saving lives, the ACES II proved itself tops in the industry with verifiable data showing less than a 1 per cent chance of a spinal injury during ejection. These exceptionally low spinal-injury rates are between 5 and 40 times lower than other ejection seats currently fielded. This compelling injury data is clear and irrefutable, appearing in scientific and academic papers such as Survivability and Injuries from Use of Rocket-Assisted Ejection Seats: Analysis of 232 Cases by Matthew Lewis. While developing the ACES II, USAF authorities were careful to establish a robust supply chain. This supply chain ensures competitive sourcing for the hidden expenses of maintaining ejection seats; consumables and spare

i on bat aviat s in m o c f o The world tremendous gain on. has made d mishap preventi at safety an gly, the ejection sea Accordin nued to evolve as rn has conti mponent of mode t critical cond trainer aircraf c om ba t a

parts. United Propulsion Company (UPCO), a Collins subsidiary, was set up to make cartridge- and propellantactuated devices (CAD/PAD). The ability to competitively source for CAD/ PAD is key to keeping sustainment costs affordable over the long-term and UPCO facilitated sourcing of the replacement parts. Whereas some ejection seats use proprietary, sole-source CAD/PAD, ACES II allows customers the flexibility to source for the best deals to maintain their seats. Further, ACES II CAD/PAD has, on average, over 10-years of service life on the seat. Put together, the ACES II CAD/PAD lasts longer and is less expensive. That means that the ACES II is about 50 per cent less expensive per year to maintain than other seats. In fact, a recent USAF Justification and Authorisation, which announced the service's intent to award a solesource procurement contract for the ACES 5® (which will replace the ACES II), highlighted $1.5 billion worth of sustainment savings by selecting the ACES family of systems. Aside from affordability, some of the most high-profile ejection events of recent combat attest to the essential ability to “hit the ground running” escape, evade capture and talk on the radio to summon rescue forces. The current USAF Chief of Staff, General David Goldfein, who ejected using ACES II during a combat mission in

B-2 bomber ejection seat upgrade

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June 2020

DEFBIZ

BOEING

ACES 5® Next Generation Ejection Seats

Collins Aerospace to provide ACES 5® ejection seat and landing gear system for Boeing T-7A Red Hawk trainer

the Balkans in 1999, was back home in time for breakfast with his family after his rescue and was again flying combat missions in short order. Also, in possibly one of the most widely circulated and amazingly photographed events in aviation history, Capt. Chris “Elroy” Stricklin ejected from his F-16 “Thunderbird” at a Mountain Home Air Force Base airshow. This ejection was well outside the technical performance specification of the ACES II, but the proven and reliable features of the seat including the CKU-5 load-compensating catapult and the Stability Package (STAPAC) pitch stabilisation rocket motor worked flawlessly in tandem, and demonstrated that industry leading terrain clearance performance can be accomplished without harming the aircrew. Although other seats can perform with 18-20 G’s or higher accelerations during the catapult phase, they are not effective when the thrust vector is pointed in the wrong direction because the seat pitches forward or rearward where there is no active pitch control. The ACES II’s stable, 9-13 G catapult at ambient temperatures is also important when the pilot is operating aircraft in hot environments. High temperatures affect the acceleration during the catapult phase and when the risks of spinal injuries tremendously

increase around 20 G’s, having some buffer will ensure pilot safety. In all scenarios tested to date, whether on the bench or a real-world ejection, the CKU5 delivers a stable, reliable, consistent, load-compensating push. The load compensation is achieved through a complex mix of physics and chemistry. The shape of the burn chamber is specifically optimised to allow different rates of burn, and the propellant will burn faster when subject to increased pressure. Therefore, when ejecting heavyweight aircrew, the propellant will burn faster (and push harder) as the pressure builds in the burn chamber. Conversely, when ejecting a light-weight aircrew, less “push” is needed to achieve the desired performance, and less pressure is encountered while moving a lighter mass and therefore the burn rate slows. Compared to other ejection seats that are black powder based “mortar” style catapults, no switches are required to be set (and potentially forgotten) by the pilot to optimise the seat performance. Finally, the ACES II has never activated on its own and when not commanded to eject. Thus, whether in combat or in peacetime, the ability to walk away from an ejection and fly another day is essential. Nations invest a lot of money to train their aircrew so returning the pilots to active flying status preserves a valuable military resource.

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

Collins Aerospace is dedicated to continuously improving and tackling its customer’s most critical needs. After listening closely to pilots, aircrew, maintainers, and acquisition officials in the early 2000’s, the ejection seat design engineers moved to further improve the ACES II ejection seat that was introduced in 1978. When developing the F-22, the USAF required a seat that provided pilots with passive arm and leg restraint and a seat structure strengthened to withstand wind forces up to 700 knots. Once added, the F-22 evolution became internally known as the ACES 3. Later, the USAF required a modular seat that could be disassembled in the cockpit and this modularity concept evolved into the ACES 4. Finally, the passive arm and leg restraints, modularity, and Passive Head and Neck Protection were combined into a single ejection seat called ACES 5, the most advanced ejection seat in the industry. Through a series of internally funded technical demonstrations, ACES 5 demonstrated an impressive pedigree of USAF-sanctioned test data. In addition to the internallyfunded testing and development, the ACES 5 family has also qualified and been delivered to upgrade the B-2A Spirit. Over the years, this repeatable data has completely fleshed out the pedigree of the ACES 5 and shows reliable performance that meets and exceeds the modern standards of injury criteria that any nation should expect from now on: MIL-HDBK-516C and its most recent 2016 update. The ACES 5 is even simpler to maintain than the ACES II. The modular design means that the canopy doesn’t need to be removed in order to remove the ejection seat. ACES 5 has been demonstrated to be disassembled and removed from the back seat of an F-16 cockpit in 15-20 minutes, with reinstallation only taking about 20-30 minutes. This means that aircraft will be

DEFBIZ

DON BORCHELT

Business Development Director ACES II/5, Mission Systems, Collins Aerospace

ACES 5® Next Generation Ejection Seat

reduced to less than 1 per cent and major injuries to less than 5 per cent. To date, close to 670 lives have been saved with ACES technology. One of the lesser known, but equally critical features of the ejection seat is the volume of the survival kit. Collins Aerospace’s 1500 cubic inch survival kit can be tailored with maximum flexibility to the specific survival needs of any theater of operations. Further, it is a single, contiguous volume as opposed to being partitioned into multiple, separate, smaller spaces. In fact, USAF pilots are now flying with converted M4 assault rifles in their ACES II survival kits, giving aircrew a real fighting chance to enhance their likelihood of survival. Finally, as announced in October 2019, the USAF intends to sole source the ACES 5 to upgrade all existing ACES II seats. In addition, the ACES 5 is also the seat of choice for the new USAF trainer aircraft, the T-7A Red Hawk, which will begin fielding in the coming years. What will the future bring to the ACES family of systems? Engineers are constantly hard at work developing technology that will make ejections even safer and create game-changing ejection seat technology and performance. One can all dream like aviation pioneer Henry Farman did more than 100 years ago, and while modern aircraft are safer than ever before, the ACES 5 ejection seat stands ready to ensure those born to fly, live to walk away. Don Borchelt retired from the US Air Force in 2018 where he was assigned as the 1st FW Vice Commander. It was in his Flight Safety roles where Don became even more passionate about the imperative to provide aircrew with the safest, best performing ejection seat possible. He has 2000 flight hours and over 100 combat hours. In his role, Don leads and implements business capture strategies to develop, test, and field the ACES 5 ejection seat to reduce ejection risks for fighter, bomber, and trainer aircrew in the US and internationally

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June 2020

ALL PHOTOS: COLLINS AEROSPACE

mission capable more often and more effectively. In addition, the patented Passive Head and Neck Protection (PHNP) is a simple, robust mechanical system compared to a complex, highmaintenance, airbag-style system. All that is required is a simple visual inspection by maintenance technicians. ACES 5 is made of robust, machined aluminum and designed to withstand shocks and loads induced at very high-speed ejections. Together with the Passive Arm- and Leg-Restraint System, the seat secures the limbs of the aircrew and transfers the loads into the seat structure itself. This prevents windblast induced flailing injuries of the limbs, another key feature to being able to evade capture or crawl into a survival raft. Pitch and yaw stability of the ACES 5, particularly critical at high speeds, are the core requirements of injury prevention. ACES 5’s active pitch stability provided by the STAPAC is retained from the ACES II while adding a new fast-acting drogue parachute that deploys milliseconds sooner to stabilise the seat in the yaw axis. Finally, aircrew land under the canopy of the newest, best-performing ejection seat parachute available today, the GR-7000. The GR-7000 slows the decent of even the heaviest aircrew, up to 245 pounds with a full survival kit (a total of 337 pounds suspended weight), to a very slow speed of less than 21 feet-per-second. The parachute is more steerable, and the built-in forward drive prevents random oscillations common in older parachutes. Together with the slow descent rate, the GR-7000 stability decreases the probability of a lowerleg injury very low levels that exceed modern injury criteria. To help update those modern injury criteria, Collins Aerospace worked closely with the airworthiness authorities and help set a new standard of injury performance – the MILHDBK-516C airworthiness certification criteria which is a total overhaul from the original version. ACES 5 is the only ejection seat certified to this standard. The result is that ACES 5 retains the lowpotential for spinal injury and protects pilot in ejections up to 600 knots. In fact, with ACES 5, spinal injuries are

GLOBAL WATCH

A POST COVID-19 WORLD ORDER AMIT GUPTA discusses what changes may emerge in the world affected by the Covid–19 pandemic and their potential implications for India

People suffering from corona

YOUTUBE

assim Nicholas Taleb became famous for writing about a black swan event— an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences— and the Covid-19 pandemic certainly

fits that description. While Covid-19 was totally unexpected, and what Thomas Friedman has called in a different context (the terror attack of 9/11) a failure of imagination, we are now seeing a range of at times wild predictions about how the postCovid-19 world order will look. These

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

range from China’s loss of power within the international system to the death of globalisation. The consequences of the pandemic will be felt in economic and military restructuring while at the same time giving a boost to certain aspects of globalisation. In economic terms,

GLOBAL WATCH

analyst Mohammed El Erian has suggested three consequences to the pandemic: the world moves from physical to virtual; companies and governments move from efficient to resilient; and countries move from an international to a national perspective. The virtual world will only grow as individuals, corporations, governments, and academia recognise that much of the work that was done through a physical presence can be done just as effectively through virtual interaction. Virtual interaction is also having an unintended impact since by going online such meetings have met a wider audience who recognise that the way business was done was mostly inefficient or wasteful. American parents, for example, have been sitting in on their children’s online classes at universities and are reportedly underwhelmed by the quality of education that their children are getting and for which parents are paying exorbitant prices. We will, therefore, move to greater online interaction and this will benefit some sectors of the Indian economy. Moving some legal and medical services to India will not only reduce costs in these sectors but also remove the growing constraint posed by anti-immigration forces in the west and particularly in the United States under the Trump administration. While Trump officials have sought to reduce immigration through measures like clamping down on H1-B visas, American hi-tech companies have been fighting to keep the immigration pipeline open since they get much of their intellectual labour through that path. American companies could, for example, place more offices on the Canadian side of the border, where immigration laws are more relaxed, and work virtually with employees—and some firms are already doing this. To put this is context, Seattle, the home of Microsoft, is a two and a half hour drive from Vancouver where the company has a large subsidiary where, according to its website, “Microsoft Vancouver is home to teams working on Notes, MSN, Gears of War, Skype and mixed reality applications, both for desktop and HoloLens.” Expect, therefore, much more of the global economy to be configured in this manner. Resiliency will come particularly in the realm of medicines and pharmaceuticals where, after the pandemic broke loose, countries

were scurrying around the world to get supplies of masks, ventilators, and medications. Some of these requirements, therefore, will be met by countries ramping up domestic production efforts although this is leading to the false hope that it will lead to a large-scale return of production lines to the West and to a boom in employment in these countries. Instead, it is likely that while some factories return, they will be largely automated to keep down labour costs and ensure profitability. El-Erian argues that we are already seeing this in the United States where there are now, “…. government mandates to secure safer inputs for sectors deemed to be of nationalsecurity interest. We are already seeing such requirements in the United States for energy generation,

he enc e s of t n u q e s n o c T he ll be felt i i w c i m e ry p a nd and milita at the same c i m o n o c e in ring while restructu g a boost to certa n i time giv globalisation f asp ect s o

telecommunications, health-care materials, and pharmaceuticals. It is only a matter of time until this trend spreads to other sectors and countries.” Which then brings up the issue of national versus international in the policy choices of governments. Governments around the world are now engaging in a blame game on Covid-19 and the proponents of globalisation fear that this will add to the anti-globalisaton sentiments that have been growing in the Western world. While the United States and Australia have been quite vocal in their criticism of China’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis, Europe has mostly been discreet in its criticism of China. In fact, in March 2020, the G-7 group of advanced industrial nations was unable to issue a joint declaration because the United States was insisting that in the

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June 2020

official declaration the virus be referred to as the Wuhan virus. Observers believe that this may change as anger with China rises across the world. One needs, however, to take the attempt to hold China accountable for what it is, which is political posturing, rather than a serious and concerted effort to make Beijing be more transparent. Australia’s Prime Minister has been vocal about the Chinese lack of transparency but his country cannot break its economic interdependence with China. Canberra’s major exports are commodities, education, tourism, agriculture, and services and four of these revenue earners depend on a continued relationship with the Chinese. Australia sells large amounts of copper and iron ore to China and it was this sale of minerals that sparked a boom in the Australian economy that has continued until this year. China imports 63 billion Australian dollars of iron ore, 16 billion dollars of natural gas, and 14.6 billion dollars of coal from Australia. Large numbers of Chinese students study at Australian universities and contribute 12 billion dollars to the Australian education system while Chinese tourists are vital to the Australian tourist industry. Australian data reveals that the country gets 8.5 million visitors annually and 1.4 million of those are Chinese. Further, Australia makes 43.9 billion Australian dollars from tourism and 12 billion of that comes from Chinese tourists—over 25 percent of the revenues earned from tourism are from Chinese visitors. Australia now sells about 12 billion dollars of agricultural products to China which is about a quarter of Australia’s total agricultural exports. Moving in a significant way against Beijing would potentially, therefore, lead to very painful economic consequences for Canberra. Similar economic constraints affect the relationships of other Asian countries with China as well as the attitude of some European countries towards Beijing—the perception exists that Italy, one of the ten largest economies in the world, will become even more economically interdependent on China in post Covid-19 world. Which brings up the issue of the status of China in a post-Covid-19 world.

China in a post-Covid-19 world

In the United States, scholars used to fall into two categories: the old-fashioned Cold Warriors who were “Panda Haters”

UNILY.COM

GLOBAL WATCH

An employee of a private corporation working from home. Telecommuting has become the new normal in the post Covid-19 world

and sought a strategic competition with China; and “Panda Huggers” who were Globalisers who believed the two countries could work out their differences and that with growing economic interdependency, Beijing could become a serious stakeholder in the West- created liberal international order. In the aftermath of the pandemic, it looks like the hawks have gained ascendency as the Trump administration seeks to hold China accountable. Concerns of resiliency are also seeking the creation of alternative supply chains outside of China, thus, it is presumed, lessening the economic interdependency with China which is one of the fundamental premises of globalisation. Yet it is difficult to both put a lot of pressure on China or to easily break the economic ties that bind. China has reacted in a hostile manner to attempts to hold it responsible for the Covid-19 outbreak. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has sought to get China investigated and in response Beijing has begun to play hardball with Canberra by raising the tariffs on Australian barley by 80 percent. Other countries who signed on with fanfare to the Chinese led Regional Comprehensive Economic Programme (RCEP)—which promises the development of the largest free

row ill only g w ld r o w l a s, The virtu uals, corporation d ia i m iv as ind nts, and acade work e governm that much of the ugh recognise ne effectively thro can be do teraction v i r t ua l i n

trade agreement in the world—are also likely to be diffident in their criticism of China. Moreover, China’s diplomats, who in the past were known for careful behind the scenes coalition building are now engaging in what has been described as “wolf warrior” diplomacy and are being increasingly confrontational with the representatives of other countries. China’s own foreign ministry has told its diplomats to tone it down but the reaction has been seen in world forums before when, in the face of a crisis that reflected badly on the country, Chinese diplomats ratchetted up hyper-nationalism. The problem for

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

Washington, however, is that the United States has not provided the economic or political leadership that would lead to a concerted global effort against the pandemic (to hold China accountable in a low-key and responsible way) or to provide an alternative to China’s global economic clout. As far as cutting supply chains are concerned, two problems emerge. First, while it is easy to break a supply chain it is not that easy to rapidly set up a replacement. While some supply chains have moved out of China it has been for low-technology low-value goods and not for high-technology, high-value added goods where the Chinese have had a comparative advantage. There, major multinational corporations still recognise that moving away from China will be a slower and more painful process. Secondly, you have to find a country that has the ability to make goods as cheaply, quickly, efficiently, and reliably as China—very few can do that and no one can do it in the volume that China does. While some of this rerouting will go to Vietnam, not that much will come the way of India. Not only do Indian land and labour laws continue to bedevil potential investors but Indian industrialists would be the first to admit that they cannot match the advantages that China has in the globalised trade network.

US lack of leadership

Part of the problem with holding the Chinese accountable and providing an alternative to the economic advantage of the Chinese is that the Trump administration has been fueling nationalistic flames, engaging in electoral politics, and worse, has no real vision for a new global economic structure. This being an election year, the American response to Covid-19 has been based on short term political objectives rather than a clear attempt to control the pandemic and show American leadership in the process. Trump has pushed to have the American economy open prematurely and this may have the effect of further spreading the pandemic in the United States. Further, with American unemployment now at 40 million, a drawn-out trade war and the reconfiguring of supply chains will only hurt the economy and Trump’s chances of reelection. What the outside observer does not realise is that the US economy is not geared towards saving but

towards debt fueled consumption and most Americans actually live paycheck to paycheck. A US Federal Reserve survey found that in the event of an emergency 40 percent of Americans did not have $400 in savings while 60 percent could not access $1000. So, it will require the US government to give a huge fiscal stimulus to the country and it already has spent $2 trillion along with the Federal Reserve now holding $7 trillion in assets which observers point out is the equivalent of a third of the US economy. With the need to bring the economy back quickly, therefore, there has to be a quick revival of global trade but a range of industries like hospitality, aviation, restaurants, and tourism will not bounce back as easily as once thought. Delta Airlines executives now feel that getting back to normal will take till the end of 2021. Added to the economic displacement is the lack of leadership on combatting the actual disease and this is in part due to unscientific claims about the nature of the disease as well as not collaborating with other countries around the world as was the case during past pandemics. Thus, during the Ebola crisis, it was the Obama administration that took the lead and ensured that the spread of the disease was contained. With Covid-19, instead, there has been little effort to bring together the countries of the world and Trump has exacerbated matters by discouraging social distancing and the wearing of masks as well as suggesting unproven remedies like the use of Hydrochloroquine as a prophylactic. In contrast, countries like South Korea and even tiny Cuba have set examples by sending test kits and, in the case of Cuba, doctors around the world to combat the disease. This is where globalisation will continue to be important since it is only through scientific cooperation in the international community and rapid and widespread release of a vaccine that Covid-19 can be successfully tackled. With this in mind the AstraZeneca/ Oxford University vaccine research programme is working with Puneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Serum Institute to be able to rapidly and widely release a vaccine when it becomes available.

Implications for India

There are four major takeaways for India to keep in mind as and when the Covid-19 pandemic winds down. First, at the political and diplomatic level, do

PIB

GLOBAL WATCH

Indian Railways announced the launch of Shramik Special trains on May 1, 2020 for evacuating stranded labourers to their home states

s of mificationwe a r m r te The long are that globally ards the virus to see a push tow hcare are going vestment in healt greater in uction in defence a nd a r ed s p end i ng

not dismiss the Chinese. They still have a huge financial and industrial clout in the world and cash strapped nations in both Asia and Europe will be looking to them as they cannot generate resources domestically or from other western sources, particularly the United States. India, therefore, while rightly asking for the Chinese to have greater transparency on the Covid-19 issue, since that would lead to a better chance of finding a cure, should be careful not to get into hyper-nationalistic argument with the Chinese by siding with the more diplomatically bellicose nations in the world. Secondly, India must work with its partners in the international economy to quickly bring investments into India. The recent moves to allow over 70 percent investment in defence

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June 2020

barely scratches the surface and what is required are 1991-styled radical reforms that lead to the fundamental transformation of the economy. In the post-Covid-19 world there will be opportunities for diversifying some supply chains but it will require the Indian government to be proactive in the pursuit of such investments. Thirdly, unlike Brazil, whose Presidentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s approach towards Covid-19 defies comprehension, India has followed the scientific procedures that the rest of the world nations are following. What India should be doing is working for an international medical coalition to deal with the crisis and have a global template for dealing with future outbreaks. Finally, the long-term ramifications of the virus are that globally we are going to see a push towards greater investment in healthcare and a reduction in defence spending. Countries will invest in their societies and here India has to make the move to rachet down current tensions in the neighbourhood since India and its neighbours cannot afford an expensive war. What we are likely to see, therefore, is a new world order in which some economic decoupling will take place but, as the same time, scientific and medical imperatives will require the greater integration of the global system. Amit Gupta is an economics and security analyst who lives in the United States

RIGHT ANGLE

NEPAL’S CARTOGRAPHIC WAR

leader who was otherwise losing confidence of his own Communist party and was about to be replaced has now been able to rally all the political forces in the country. He is Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, Prime Minister of Nepal. And he has done this by projecting India as a country that has grabbed Nepal’s territory and turned what was a small irritant in the overall bilateral relations into a matter of major confrontation. Under Oli’s initiative Nepal’s Parliament is going to endorse a new political map of the country showing the areas of Lipulekh, Kalapani, and Limpiyadhura as part of its territory though it has been with India as per the provisions of the 1816 Sugauli Treaty signed between the two countries. Even China that shares the border near these areas that constitute a trijunction with Nepal and India recognises the Indian position and status. Various India-China Agreements have talked of facilitating the border trade through this trijunction; the area also falls under the shortest pilgrimage- route between India and the famous Mansarovar Lake in Tibet. Significantly, as famous American political scientist Leo Rose points out, the territoriality of Kalapani and trijunction was first raised by the Nepalese government only in 1998, when the Prakash country was undergoing a turbulent phase of democratisation following the end of the royal rule. But it was a minor issue in the overall Indo-Nepal bilateral relations. The area was very much in the India’s political map then as it is now and it is sheers lies when Kathmandu points out that it was only in November 2019 that India’s new political map showed Kalapani within India. It, of course, is a fact that because of their special relations spanning thousands of years, boundaries have never mattered between India and Nepal, though 97 percent of the 1751 km-long border has been demarcated without any problem by the two countries’ Joint Technical Committee. The two have open borders and their nationals do not require a visa to visit each other. That being the case, I do not intend to go into technical details of the dispute, except pointing out that though the 1816treaty limited Nepal’s border to western side of the Kali river (known as Sharda in India and Mahakali in Nepal), leaving Kalapani, lying on the eastern side of the river and hence to India, problems have arisen because of the frequent changes in the course of this river that freezes in winter and remains unsettled through the monsoons. Nepal also challenges the real source of the river, its position being that the river flows to the west of Kalapani, making it a part of its territory; whereas India argues that the River Kali originated from a smaller rivulet named Pankhagad, lying on the southern portion of Kalapani and the subsequent ridge on the eastern part of this area is the true border. However, the point is that how for the Nepali elites a matter, which was not even a minor issue until 1998, has become such a dispute of life and death all of a sudden, triggering nothing but hatred against India so much so that Oli talks the “Indian virus” spreading the coronavirus pandemic into Nepal. And this comes at a time when the armed forces of India and China are having a stand –off over their disputed border in Ladakh. Needless it is to say that over the last few years China has

made a huge presence in Nepal. In fact, it is an open secret that Oli occupies his present position to Chinese benevolence to a considerable extent. The situation now is such that India’s lavish economic assistance and concessions to Nepal are hardly acknowledged, let alone appreciated. Two-thirds of Nepal’s foreign trade is with India which also accounts for half of Nepal’s foreign direct investment. The Nepali currency is pegged to the Indian rupee. Over the years, India has built highways, optical fibre links, medical colleges, trauma centres, polytechnics, schools, health centres, bridges, etc. For flood protection and embankment construction in Nepal, India provides hundreds of crores. It is often argued by the Nepalis that Indo-Nepal relationship is highly “unequal” because of the unequal Treaty of Peace and Friendship which the two countries signed in 1950. However, the fact remains that it was Nepal that had wanted this treaty in order to maintain the special ties with independent India that it had with British India. Moreover, many a time India has asked the Nepalese side what provisions of the treaty were unequal; but there has been no concrete response. It may be noted here that according to Articles VI Nanda and VII of the treaty, citizens of both countries have equal rights in matters of residence, acquisition of property, employment and movement in each other’s territory. The treaty provides for an open border between the two countries and allows Nepali nationals to work in India without a work permit, to apply for government jobs and the civil services (except for the IFS, IAS, and IPS), to open bank accounts and buy property. Incidentally, India had waived its rights under reciprocity as a sign of goodwill. The provisions of the ‘secret’ side letters to the Treaty, which required Nepal to consult India on its defence requirements, which Nepalis perceive as unfair and which are often used by politicians to whip up anti-India sentiment, are no longer secret or even observed. Who does the open border, or for that matter the 1950 treaty, favour more? But this question is not appreciated in Nepal, despite the fact that the open border has been grossly misused by the anti-India terrorists and criminals. A former Indian Army Chief has been on record that about 15-20% of the Pakistan-trained terrorists sneaks into India through Nepal. Besides, the open Indo-Nepal border is used to ferry fake Indian currency from Pakistan to India. The same route is taken to smuggle arms into India as well. In fact, Nepal has been a safe haven of sorts for not only militants from Jammu and Kashmir but also for terror outfits of north - east India. Viewed thus, it is time for India to revisit the open border system. We must take the hard decision to close the open border. Let Nepal, like any other landlocked country, be allowed few trade and transit points by India as permissible under international law. And let Indians and Nepalis visit each other with VISA only. Let nothing special remain between India and Nepal. Let India and Nepal interact as “normally” as is the case between any two sovereign nations.

June 2020 www.geopolitics.in

prakashnanda@newsline.in

S:176 mm

RNI No. DELENG/2010/35319

S:240 mm

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