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Turf wars impact national security Vol XI, Issue IV, september 2020 n `100

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J&K: one year after abrogation of Article 370

Armyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s artillery saga and the quest for modernisation

Democrats or Republicansâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; does it matter to India?

dealing with the

Dragon In order to understand the Chinese strategy, India needs to combine conventional thinking with unorthodoxy

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R MADHAVAN

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CMD, HAL

As Aero India 2019 kicks off in Bengaluru, it is time the MoD revs up the process to boost IAF’s capacity build-up that still remain a work in progress.

60,000 business visitors and 100,000 general visitors attending the show. As the curtain lifts on the show at Yelahanka airforce station, the nation’s air force awaits speedier modernisation goals with bated breath aided by requisite budgetary support. Since, the last Aero India show in 2017, no major defence deal has been signed with any foreign vendor to boost the Indian Airforce’s combat jet and rotary-wing capabilities and the ruling political dispensation has paid lipservice to the modernisation goals. The number of depleting squadrons of the IAF remains an ongoing nightmare for the strategic establishment as well as the Ministry of Defence. The IAF urgently needs to induct more combat aircraft to boost the combined fighter aircraft strength to at least 42 squadrons by 2032. That will fend off the two-and-a-half front strategic challenge from

he Aero India-2019 show begins in Bengaluru today. The biennial spectacle which is witnessing the participation of hundreds of

PRATESH GANDHI Director,

foreign D E F E N C E n D I P L O M A C Y General n SECUR I Tand Y domestic delegates is attracting thousands of visitors

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ARAVIND

UDAYANT MALHOUTRA

MELLIGERI STEVE Chairman & CEO, Aequs GERBER

CEO & Managing Director, Dynamatic

M V GOWTAMA

CMD, BEL

Spokesperson, Global Industry Leader- Aero, QuEST Global

ILYA

TARASENKO BO THÖRN VP for Military Cooperation, United Aircraft Corporation

DR. SUBBA RAO

CMD, Ananth Technologies Ltd

JITENDRA J JADHAV

PRABHAT KUMAR BHAGVANDAS

Director CSIR-NAL

MICHAEL KOCH

VLADYSLAV Acting Managing BELBAS Director, Boeing

CEO,Defense India and

CEO, Rossell Techsys SpetsTechnoExport Vice President, India, (Division of Rossell Boeing Defense, Space & Security India Ltd)

WATCH OUT FOR THE LCA MK 1!

tion market in the world, the opening session also witnessed an address by Suresh Prabhu in which he referred to the 20 per cent monthly growth rate of the civil aviation sector since the last four years. While referring to the growing number of airports, the Civil Aviation Minister said that 103 airports were already operational in the country while 100 more

Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy referred to the state’s ecosystem in attracting investments in the aerospace and defence sector through 98 per cent compliance to provisions of the business reforms action RAJINDER SINGH plan. He said that Bengaluru had been ranked as one of BHATIA the leading digital cities the President and in CEO world very recently and had (Defence & the potential to attract invest-

Aerospace), Bharat Forge Ltd

“THERE IS NO SCANDAL WITH RAFALE DEAL”

ERIC TRAPPIER

France in aggressive marketing push at Aero India Aero India underlies the strong presence of a maintained and after sales defence ecosystem. The French are thus selling India not just major weapon systems; they are also providing back-up services and the whole defence infrastructure, including a lucrative spare parts business and the emerging business of electronic warfare equipment and artificial intelligence enabled systems. The French government has a large dedicated stall that Continued on page 3

billion is

Bezhalel Machlis, President and CEO, ELBIT SYSTEMS Ltd., Israel, handed Over the first Export Order worth Million Dollars and which is expected to grow to Millions of Dollars in the next 4 - 5 Years to Col. H. S. Shankar, VSM (Retd) Chairman and Managing Director, Alpha Design Technologies at Aero India.

trained manpower to cater to an analysis serves no purpose the aviation sector. Such The state it is primarily the stakeholders government is slatedsince to conthat meetneed to do whatever is required duct more than 450 B2G and the government is only one of ings during the course of Aero stakeholders and they possess no India in the next five the days. specialist The closing remarks were in this domain. The main are the Armed Services, delivered by Defencestakeholders Minister the DPSUs and various wings of the

CMD, Saab India

Country Head India, MBDA

H C Tiwari

would come up in the next one decade with an investment of $65 billion. He also added that 235 new destinations had been recently added under the UDAN scheme. He said that the country would require 2300 new passenger planes to cater to the increasing growth in air traffic. With Karnataka already well-known as an aerospace hub in the country, Karnataka

ments in other high-tech sectors as well. While referring to the A&D sector, he said that the Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) sector in Bengaluru was one of the largest in Asia. A defence manufacturing cluster in Mangaluru was also being planned which may prove to be a catalyst in the direction. The Chief Minister said that the state government had also set up a centre for excel-

Nirmala Sitharaman. Addressing the 12th edition of the show, she said that 200 companies were participating in the current edition of the show. She stressed on the ‘Make in India’ policy of the government and highlighted peninsular India’s contribution towards setting up A&D industries in the domain of aerospace compoContinued on page 3

n SECURITY

ABRACADABRA! Will the government be able to satisfy the demands of the defence forces? For that, it will need more than a wave of the magic wand.

DRDO. These stakeholders need to work as a well-knit team instead of acting in conflict. The excitement and awe associated with aerospace and defence (A&D) industry has been replaced by dirty bickerings with political leanings rather than addressing the vital security needs of the country. Whether it is the Tejas of Rafale or MiGs or Sukhois, there have been allegations and counter allegations and this has certainly affected the morale of all stakeholders over the last couple of decades. This has definitely taken a toll on the IAF, which is mandated to protect our nation in spite of depleting strength and quality of fighting platforms. HAL, the only PSU involved in the manufacture of aircraft and helicopters in India, has

President & Managing Director of Airbus India & South Asia

been having its own little storms with the armed services for over five decades degenerating to a point where the two parties have finally drawn their swords out. It is not difficult to imagine the thoughts of an MSME vendor being put onto this stage. “Run away” may be a stronger feeling than “take-off to a billion opportunities”. This would clearly summarise the state of Indian private sector industries already present or just venturing into the A&D sector today. While there have been quite a few success stories spread across large as well as MSMEs here and there, the mood in the public as well as private sector

COL H S SHANKAR (RETD),

ANAND E STANLEY

LOÏC PIEDEVACHE

n DIPLOMACY

TAKE-OFF OR ABORT? unway to a opportunities”

President, lence in aerospace inquestion. partnerThis article does not try to ship with Dassault Systems. Rolls-Royce, evaluate The minister also affirmed thethe achievements or failures India and the present government in the state’sAsia potential in of providing South A&D (Aerospace & Defence) sector.

OLA RIGNELL

ALEXANDER MIKHEEV

for the Indian Navy. MBDA, the missile company, displayed at the air show the under-development next generation meteor missile with a reported range of 130 kilometres that will arm the Rafale. Rafale and MBDA are not alone. Companies like Thales, aircraft engine maker SAFRAN and a host of smaller companies make up the French presence. These include Aérocampus Aquitaine, Aerometals & Alloys, Air Liquide, Axon' Cable among others. The French presence at

“R

DEFENCE www.geopolitics.in

Continued on page 3

Highlighting the initiatives to boost investments, Raksha Mantri points to the the tagline of the forthcoming Aero contribution of peninsular India for setting up industries in the domain of aerospace India-2019. Whether the opportunities components, structures and avionics. KISHORE are meant for Indian businesses or JAYARAMAN foreign OEMs is the most important

t a time when the nation is awaiting the Lok Sabha elections and defence modernisation drives are on the backfoot, Aero India-2019 kicked-off in Bengaluru on Wednesday with some rays of hope. The opening ceremony came a day after two Surya Kiran jets crashed killing an IAF pilot on the outskirts of the Yelahanka Air Force station. The show was inaugurated by Defence Minister Nirmala1Sitharaman Come 2022, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited will raise the curtain on the Light Combat Aircraft Mark even in the presence of Union Civil Aviation as a number of foreign countries show a keen interest to acquire it. Minister Suresh Prabhu, Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, The Artificial Intelligence aspectUnion Minister he Light Combat Sadanand Gowda, Minister of of the Simulator points to future Aircraft was the centre State for Defence Dr Subhash augmented reality capabilities. of attention as HAL set Bhamre, Chief of Naval Staff HAL will also announce 2022 as the debut date for the Sunil Lanba, Chief the induction Admiral of the Light LCA Mark 1 at Aero India. The Utility Helicopter,of aArmy multi Staff role General Bipin more advanced MK2 prototype Rawat, Chief of Air Staff Air transport helicopter weighing may fly in 2023 and will have Marshal Birender Singh DhaDirector General, just 3000 kilos. Chairman forward canards as the key noa,out, Defence Secretary Sanjay “The differentiator. Rosoboronexport Madhavan pointed andlight DRDO Chief Dr G delivery scheduleMitra of the Following the completion Sathish Reddy. The show also utility helicopter and all relevant of the final operational clearwitnessed the presence of repsystem tests are progressing ance for the LCA on February resentatives from many counwell and the helicopter should 20, 2019, Chairman of HAL tries like Ghana, Afghanistan, make its debut.” R Madhavan announced today Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, HAL Chairman said that the that the LCA will now speed up Russia and South financial positionMauritius, of the comits delivery schedule. Korea. pany had improved on the back There are now indications began of payments coming The in for programme past that the delivery schedules address by Dr. Subprojects and the with 2019andefence of LCA trainer too will be H C Tiwari hash Bhamre budget. He also said that the or- in which he reexpedited. The LCA is a threerecent reforms exeder book with a ferred mix of to deliverdecade-old programme but now by Army the Modi government for IAF, the weaponised MK1 version participating in Aero India be funded for augmenting the flexible role and thus increase ies going forwardcuted in the Aerospace and Defence its availability as a weapons and Navy was robust. is ready to be mass-produced. 2019. Malaysia and the UAE delivery schedule. sector. the governIn the shadow of the Praising tragic Besides, with three new platform for the Navy.” This will test HAL production are believed to have shown infor boosting crash initiatives earlier The other major develop- Mirage 2000 airment’s terest in the LCA Mark 1 and programmes HAL showcased capabilities. investments in the A&D sector, HAL “LCA is 60 per cent indig- relevant authorities from both its future priorities at Aero In- ment of the HAL is a new simu- this month in Bangalore, he mentioned itself forrecent initiatives enous and 30 per cent of its countries have made extended dia 2019. The naval advance lator that HAL is showcasing at is clearly positioning like Make India, Start-up Inslew of in new manufacturing including some visits to the LCA facilities in light helicopter with a folding the air show. HAL's Supersonic the future with a dia and innovation for defence said mainframe and fuselage parts Bangalore. In fact, Madhavan boom and folding rotors will al- Omni Role Trainer Aircraft projects. HAL’s Chairman excellence schemes. are now outsourced,” Madha- has openly talked about follow- low this chopper to do service (SPORT) simulator will allow that the court of inquiry was wouldIndia not poised to bepilot trainingAviation and doing its job and he With ing “the Israeli model” where with smaller ships in the Indi- for real time van said. CEO, Dassault come the third largest aviaabout HAL Chairman also said HAL will manufacture products an Navy and thus increase its situational combat assessment comment on speculation Page 3) of the Mirage 2000 the cause that some countries had shown not only for domestic needs but utility. Said HAL Chairman R and training. The artificial in- (See Madhavan, “The ability to have telligence component of the crash. interest in importing LCA and also for global markets. Sources told GEOPOLITICS folding rotors and boom allow simulator allows for advance although he did not name the — Ninad D Sheth countries, he said they were that a new assembly line may the helicopter to fit into a more training to be integrated online.

he boom that accompanies the afterburners as the Rafale fighter jet does multiple rolls and goes into a steep climb is an excellent metaphor for French presence at the air show. The Rafale CEO underlined this presence by firmly rebutting that there was any scandal in the deal and asserting that it was keen to sell more aircrafts should the Indian government want to enhance the fleet. “100 Rafales would be a nice number,” he said. Rafale is also looking to sale its naval version

RM INVITES WORLD TO INVEST IN A&D SECTOR

FRIDAY 22, FEBRUARY 2019

from India and all across the globe. The show which will play as a platform for Business to Business (B2B) and Business to Customer (B2C) networking among the small and medium scale vendors, global defence majors, government officials and policymakers may prove to be a gamechanger for the country’s military and civilian aerospace industries in the years to come. At the previous edition of the show in February 2017, the exhibition confirmed its status as a premier aerospace event in Asia. That edition saw participation from 549 companies (270 Indian and 279 foreign) and 72 participating aircraft covering a total area of 27,678 sq mt and witnessed participation from 51 countries. The 2017 event also led to

Technical Head, FFV Ordnance

DEFENCE n DIPLOMACY n SECURITY

Atomics Aeronautical Systems

AERO INDIA-2019 SPECIAL Vol IX, Issue IX, FEBRUARY 2019 n `100

CMD, Alpha Design Technologies Pvt. Ltd

Continued on page 3

JIM WALKER

Vice President, Customer & Account Management for Collins Aerospace in Asia Pacific

CONTENTS

COVER STORY IS THE NEW “LAC NORMAL” HERE TO STAY? 14 The Chinese are fighting very differently. Thus, Indian forces will have to balance conventional wisdom for Pakistan with Chinese unorthodoxy and recourse to deception and deceit and trump both approaches.

PERSPECTIVE

The story of atmanirbharta in defence

8 Forfeiting national security for turf

SPECIAL REPORT

SPOTLIGHT

24 370 – One year later

Agni-VI will give India tremendous diplomatic leverage at global high tables and will deter big powers from attempting Balkanisation of India during future conflicts.

The abrogation of Article-370 and Article-35A of the Constitution of India has seen an outpour of developmental initiatives in the two newly formed union territories.

The editorial column will resume next month since the Editor-in-Chief is on leave.

Interorganisational cooperation and camaraderie is a fallacy which has been propagated for long. Calamities are manifested through cascading effects of numerous blunders.

Will the embargo on import and carving out of a separate budget head for local procurement give impetus to indigenisation and self-reliance in a new way?

High time for Agni-VI ICBM

September 2020 www.geopolitics.in

CONTENTS

FOCUS

PERISCOPE 74 percent FDI allowed in defence through automatic route

DIPLOMACY

DEFBIZ Boeing offers F/A-18 Block-III Super Hornets to Indian Navy 46 Rafael offers FireFly and Drone Dome C-UAS to India 48 Lockheed Martin concludes annual Suppliers Conference 50

HIT TO KILL: THE ARTILLERY SAGA

(38)

As India is increasingly facing the risk of a two-front war, the Indian Army’s artillery modernisation drive requires a tremendous thrust from the government.

DEMOCRATS VERSUS REPUBLICANS: DOES IT MATTER TO INDIA? (56)

It will be the ability of both the Indian and American leadership to make arrangements that satisfy their mutual national interests, which will be more important for both the nations.

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Raksha Mantri launches BEML’s indigenous products 52 BEL upgrades ATDS Maareech manufacturing facility 53 Raytheon and Rafael establish Iron Dome production facility in US 54 BAE delivers first AMPV to US Army

K SRINIVASAN EDITOR

PRAKASH NANDA

DIRECTOR MANAGING EDITOR

TIRTHANKAR GHOSH CONSULTING EDITOR

M MURLIDHARAN S. VASANTHAKRISHNAN SUB-EDITOR-CUM-REPORTER

AMARTYA SINHA

RAJESH VAID

RIGHT ANGLE

DESIGNER

MOHIT KANSAL

RAJIV SINGH PUBLISHING DIRECTOR

RAKESH GERA LEGAL ADVISOR

VASU SHARMA SUBSCRIPTION

ALKA SHARMA DISTRIBUTION

SENIOR PROOF READER

Skilling gaps in defence production.

VOL XI, ISSUE IV, September 2020

STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER

HEMANT RAWAT

BHUSHAN KOLI For advertising and sales enquiries, please contact : 9810159332, 9810030533 For editorial inputs: geopolitics@newsline.in Editorial and Marketing Office Newseye Media Pvt. Ltd., D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin East, New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033382 / 84

All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Archna Printers D-127, Okhla Indl Area Ph-1, New Delhi -110020, Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in www.geopolitics.in

September 2020

TURF WARS IMPACT NATIONAL SECURITY Vol XI, Issue IV, SEPTEMBER 2020 n `100

DEFENCE n DIPLOMACY n SECURITY www.geopolitics.in

J&K: one year after abrogation of Article 370

Army’s artillery saga and the quest for modernisation

Democrats or Republicans— does it matter to India?

DEALING WIH THE

DRAGON In order to understand the Chinese strategy, India needs to combine conventional thinking with unorthodoxy

Cover Design: Mohit Kansal The total number of pages in this issue is 64



LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

‘M DEFBIZ

‘WE HAVE DEVELOPED AI-ENABLED SECURITY SOLUTIONS’ At a time when the nation is increasingly facing internal security threats, Globus Infocom has emerged as a prominent player in the domain of cutting-edge security and surveillance gadgets. The Indian company is literally redefining the law enforcement landscape in India and is playing a pivotal role in police modernisation. KIRANDEEP DHAM, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Globus Infocom Limited, explains the nuances in the field of latest security and surveillance solutions in this interview with AMARTYA SINHA We being a ‘Make In India’ brand are strongly promoting and boasting this and working towards reaching 100 percent indigenisation provided the government supports on two factors - the making of Industry specific clusters and building the whole ecosystem around it, and by mentioning and encouraging ‘Make in India’ brands by putting this clearly in the purchase guidelines. Most importantly the buying behaviour has to change for all the citizens of the country and each one of us have to be vocal for local.

What exactly is the concept of a data wall solution? How is Globus Infocom reshaping this domain with cutting-edge products and services?

What are some of your products and solutions in the domain of security, surveillance and law enforcement? Globus Infocom has a wide range of products and solutions under its security and surveillance vertical, suiting the diverse requirements of businesses and organisations. Our product basket includes AI-enabled CCTV cameras with smart video analytics features like face recognition, perimeter intrusion, object removal to provide round the clock and comprehensive surveillance. We also have body worn cameras for security personnel, fleets, police officers and paramilitary

units to provide convenient and scalable surveillance.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the top leadership of the nation has stressed upon making India self-reliant in all technologies and solutions. How is Globus Infocom boosting ‘Make in India’? Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ Initiative has greatly boosted the morale of the manufacturing industries and shown us a positive direction. We totally support his idea of making India self-reliant in terms of manufacturing and design.

Data wall solutions provide freedom to form one large screen of desired size using multiple high-quality displays. However, looking at current market requirements and recent technological advancements, we have introduced LED wall solutions since the LED signage technology is not only high-end and low-maintenance but also cost-effective. It is scalable and highlycustomisable as per users’ requirements. As compared to the traditional signage technology, LED display walls are more visually-appealing, impactful, easy to maintain and most importantly, environment-friendly. Globus, as a brand believes in creating a one-stop solution for our customers’ needs. We aim to serve as a single point of contact for their hardware, software as well as installation requirements. Therefore, we not only provide highend signage solutions but also have an interactive, user-friendly signage software to manage the content of the display. We

odernising the paramilitary’ (Geopolitics, August 2020) was a very interesting read. One very important aspect which was highlighted is the requirement of a modern sidearm. As the 21st century battlefield has gone a massive transformation due to widespread usage of asymmetric warfare tactics by Islamic terrorists and left-wing insurgents, it is quite evident that all active paramilitary personnel must be equipped with a modern secondary firearm for handling a multitude of situations. It may take several hours for mobilising special forces troopers for handling a hostage situation. But if regular paramilitary soldiers are armed with a modern sidearm like the Glock-17 or an underwater pistol like the ‘Heckler & Koch P-11’, CRPF/ BSF/ITBP/CISF personnel can handle the crisis by using the manpower and resources at their disposal at the earliest without waiting for the army to intervene. The union government must modernise the paramilitary forces by arranging the funds through strategic disinvestment of PSUs and corporatisation of ordnance factories. Silpa Banerjee, Kolkata

MODERNISING

THE PARAMILITARY

Strict maintenance of law and order by deploying modern technology and contemporary tactics is extremely crucial for maintaining India’s internal stability and territorial integrity. Now is the time to go full-throttle on paramilitary modernisation, writes AMARTYA SINHA

A team of Border Security Force’s female soldiers patrolling the IndiaBangladesh border

YOUTUBE

entral Armed Police Forces (CAPF) or paramilitary forces in public parlance, are always considered a crucial part of India’s internal security mechanism, without which the war against anti-national elements can’t be taken to a logical conclusion and sociopolitical order can’t be maintained. While the three branches of the Indian Armed Forces (Army, Navy and Air Force) are expected to counter external security

threats at the border, paramilitary organisations such as Assam Rifles, Border Security Force (BSF), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), and National Security Guard (NSG) are expected to reign in internal sub-conventional level threats emanating from isolated pockets and closely guard the nation’s vital strategic installations from hostile forces. It goes without any

saying that these troopers need better arms and ammunitions along with cutting edge communication gadgets to live up to the best of national leadership’s expectations.

Replacing old service rifles

Assault rifles are one of the primary weapons being used by CAPF troopers in sub-conventional level battlefields. Starting with close quarter battle (CQB) engagements with left-wing insurgents

August 2020 www.geopolitics.in

COVER STORY

SPOTLIGHT

‘We have developed AI-enabled security solutions’ (Geopolitics, August 2020) was an informative interview. It is good to know that Globus Infocom is actively working on cuttingedge digital technologies and gadgets for the state police forces and the Indian armed forces. While the company is doing a commendable job towards development of night surveillance solutions, body-worn cameras and face recognition, a massive opportunity lies in the domain of development of laser walls, ruggedised motion sensors for border protection and software-defined radios (SDR) for soldiers. There are also increasing scopes of R&D in futuristic technologies and solutions like blockchain, 5G wireless, machine learning, Internet of things (IoT), and big data. The recently launched new National Education Policy (NEP)-2020 also lays more stress on intense digitalisation of education. It has potentially opened up a vast market for corporations like Globus Infocom. Investments are also required for completely transforming digital health services in India. Prashemi Ghosh, Guwahati All correspondence may be addressed to: The Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin East, New Delhi-110013. Or mail to: geopolitics@newsline.in

SPECIAL REPORT

THE TIME FOR ALLIANCE?

BOOSTING INFRASTRUCTURE

ALONG THE INDIA-CHINA BORDER AMARTYA SINHA takes a look at the state of infrastructures near the Line of Actual Control with China, keeping in view that an armed confrontation with the communist neighbour can be prevented only when the Indian military achieves the technological and strategic edge over the adversary in terms of good quality metalled roads, railway tracks, bridges, tunnels, ALGs and airbases An aerial view of the Dhola-Sadiya Bridge which connects Assam with Arunachal Pradesh

PIB

he 2020 India-China border skirmishes have been an eyeopener of all. The rapid and widespread mobilisation of Indian and Chinese forces at multiple standoff points on the banks of Pangong Tso Lake (Finger-5, 6, 7 and 8), Galwan Valley (Patrolling Point-14) and Hot Springs Sector (Patrolling Points15 & 17A) have proved the efficacy of having good quality road-infrastructure

in those areas. Had it not been the world class infrastructure near the LAC (Line of Actual Control) boosting the Indian military’s capability of mobilising assets for countering the hostile build-up, the Chinese would have possibly launched ground incursions inside Eastern Ladakh using the same strategy of 1962. Thus, a dense mesh of all-weather metalled roads, railway tracks, bridges and advanced landing grounds (ALGs)

August 2020

near the international boundary will prove to be a boon for the Indian military in challenging the enemy’s adventurist motives in those areas. These new generation infrastructures will significantly enhance the Indian forces’ reach towards frontline positions on the LAC, thus giving the nation a massive strategic leverage over an expansionist neighbour. Slew of infrastructure projects are

www.geopolitics.in

‘B

August 2020

www.geopolitics.in

‘T

oosting infrastructure along the IndiaChina border’ (Geopolitics, August 2020) was an enlightening writeup. It aptly highlighted the urgency for modernising road, rail and air infrastructure near the India-China border. Building good quality infrastructure and boosting connectivity in Northeast is the only way for deter an expansionist China from carrying out aggressive manoeuvres against India. But it is also high time for the Indian government to finish the pending rail projects and electrify the railway tracks in these areas. One such route Is the New Delhi-Guwahati route which is yet to be electrified after New Jalpaiguri. The Nashipur rail bridge in Murshidabad district of West Bengal is one more such project which needs be operationalised at the earliest. Meanwhile, the Guwahati-Lumding-Dibrugarh railway line is yet to be doubled whereas the Siliguri to Guwahati stretch of National Highway-27 is yet to be four-laned. Work on the SivokRangpo rail link also needs to be speeded up.

ime for an alliance?’ (Geopolitics, August 2020) was an eye opener for all. The author has rightly argued that India needs to build-up a greater strategic alliance with the United States of America. The recent signing of the Industrial Security Annex agreement with the United States will facilitate the transfer of more advanced defence technologies and equipment and will also lead to formation of joint ventures between Indian private sector giants and American OEMs. The much-awaited Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for sharing of geospatial intelligence should also be wrapped up at the earliest which will seal the fate of Indo-US defence partnership for the long run. Last but not the least, the Indian government should seriously consider the option of giving the US a base on Indian territory, preferably in the Andaman Islands chain. Australia should join the Malabar series of naval exercises as a permanent partner. It is time to reshape the Quad as an Asian NATO.

Meenakshi Kashyap, Hyderabad

Himanshu Datt Sharma, New Delhi

September 2020 www.geopolitics.in

PERISCOPE

74 PERCENT FDI ALLOWED IN DEFENCE THROUGH AUTOMATIC ROUTE for domestic procurement, 101 items for domestic procurement, etc. will encourage and give a fillip to domestic defence industries. He also stated that the union government is working on speeding

research and innovation in the private sector and in academic institutions as well. He mentioned that emphasis is on co-production through joint ventures with foreign partners.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi examining an AK-203 automatic assault rifle during DefExpo-2020 in Lucknow

PIB

rime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the seminar on Atmanirbhar Bharat in Defence Manufacturing via Video Conferencing on August 27. Stressing on the need to become Atmanirbhar (self-reliant) in defence manufacturing, the Prime Minister said that the nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s aim is to boost defence production, develop new technology and give significant roles to private players in the defence sector. Complimenting Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and his entire team for working on a mission mode and taking relentless efforts, the Prime Minister stated that the objective of achieving self-reliance in defence production will definitely gain momentum from the seminar. Narendra Modi said when India became independent, it had a great potential and ecosystem for defence production in India but for decades no serious efforts were made. He remarked that the situation is now changing while continuous and persistent efforts are being undertaken to bring about reforms in the defence sector. He enumerated several concrete steps undertaken in this direction such as improvement in licensing process, creating level playing field, simplification of export process, etc. PM remarked that a sense of confidence in the defence sector is essential for building a modern and self-reliant India. Decisions such as appointment of CDS (Chief of Defence Staff ), which were pending for decades have been taken now, which reflects confidence of new India. Appointment of CDS has resulted in better synergy and coordination among the three forces, and has helped in the scaling up of defence procurement. Similarly, he highlighted that opening of defence sector by permitting 74 percent FDI via automatic route reflects the confidence of new India. Modi said that steps such as earmarking a part of the capital budget

up the procurement process, streamlining the system of testing, etc. Speaking about corporatisation of ordnance factories, he said that once completed it will strengthen both the workers and the defence sector. Emphasising on the need for technology upgradation for selfsufficiency in modern equipment, the Prime Minister said that in addition to DRDO, government is encouraging

www.geopolitics.in

September 2020

On the infrastructure front, the Prime Minister spoke about two defence corridors underway in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. He said the state-ofthe-art infrastructure is being built in collaboration with the state governments of Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. An investment target of `20 thousand crores in the coming five years has been set for this.

PERSPECTIVE

An Indian-made LCA Tejas multirole fighter jet in flight

THE STORY OF ATMANIRBHARTA IN DEFENCE Will the embargo on import and carving out of a separate budget head for local procurement give impetus to indigenisation and self-reliance in a way that the measures taken in the past two decades have not? AMIT COWSHISH attempts an answer

riven as much by the government’s ‘Atmanirbhar India’ agenda for economic revival, as by the strategic imperative of being selfreliant in defence production, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has prohibited import of 101 items. The list includes not just various types of ammunition which we should have started making in India long ago, but also weapon systems, radars,

sonars, combat and transport vehicles, naval platforms, helicopters, and aircraft. According to press release of August 9, 2020, the embargo will come into effect for 69 of these 101 items as early as in December 2020, for another 31 in a phased manner between December of 2021 and 2024, and for a solitary item – Long Range Land Attack Cruise Missile – in December 2025. Some of the items on the list like various variants of military

trucks are already being made in India. A separate budget head has also been carved out of the capital procurement budget for 2020-21 to cater for purchases from the domestic sources. Just to make it clear, capital procurement (or acquisition) budget is not a distinct budget head, but only a notional sub-set the ‘Capital Outlay on Defence Services’, which also includes allocation for acquisition of land, capital civil works, etc., none of which are WIKIMEDIA

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considered to be a part of the putative capital procurement budget. The press release proclaims that these measures are ‘a big step towards self-reliance in defence’ which ‘offers a great opportunity to the Indian defence industry to rise to the occasion to manufacture the items in the negative list by using their own design and development capabilities or adopting technologies designed by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) to meet the requirements of the Armed Forces in the coming years’. This is not the first time that steps have been taken to achieve strategic selfreliance– a concept that can be interpreted in several ways - through indigenisation of defence production. The MoD has been striving for this goal for almost three decades. In 1993, a committee headed by late Dr APJ Abdul Kalam had suggested a plan to improve the self-reliance quotient from the 1992 level of 30 per cent to 70 per cent by 2005, but nothing much came out of it. The need for indigenisation for achieving self-reliance in defence shot into limelight again after the Kargil War in 1999 and led to the defence sector being opened to private sector participation and limited foreign direct investments in 2002. A customised acquisition procedure was also promulgated along with the setting up of a dedicated procurement structure in the MoD. Several measures have been taken since then to promote the domestic defence industry. In 2006, the ‘Make’ procedure was adopted to promote indigenous design and development of futuristic equipment. The category was split into two in 2016 and is now proposed to be split into three sub-categories to make the scheme work, which has not been the case so far with not a single ‘Make’ project fructifying. Meanwhile, separate directorates were also set up for each service to promote indigenisation. All this was done with the ultimate objective of achieving selfreliance in defence production. It will be fair to ask whether the embargo on import and carving out of a separate budget head for local procurement will give impetus to indigenisation and self-reliance in a way that the measures taken in the past two decades have not. There is no official report on why the past and existing policies and procedures have not delivered as expected on the promise of indigenisation and selfreliance, but the measures announced on August 9 wrongly give the impression

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Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inspecting the K9 Vajra-T artillery gun at L&T Armoured System Complex, in Hazira on January 16, 2020

that availability of the option to import equipment even if it was already available, or could be developed, in India was a major hurdle in achieving self-reliance, and that this escape route is now sought to be plugged by closing altogether the option to import such equipment. While the intention underlying these measures cannot be faulted, treating these measures as the ultimate catalyst for hastening self-reliance through indigenisation would be disingenuous. The negative list basically conflates an existing procurement category with future requirements of the armed forces, but leaves many ends untied. As for carving out of a separate moiety for procurement from local sources, it cannot solve the core problem of paucity of funds for modernisation that has persisted for more than a decade.

Procurement of indigenously designed equipment

The existing procedure requires every capital procurement proposal to be categorised under one of the several categories prescribed in the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2016. Five of these categories are arranged hierarchically in a descending order of preference. The ‘Buy (Indian – Indian Designed, Developed, and Manufactured), or ‘Buy (IDDM)’, category, which tops this hierarchy, envisages procurement of equipment from the Indian companies. Since companies offering indigenously designed and developed equipment have to compete with other

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companies offering foreign-designed equipment under the Buy (IDDM) category, the former are incentivised by allowing them to offer equipment with indigenous content (IC) of 40 percent, while the latter must have 60 percent IC in the equipment offered by them. This is a needless complexity which is now being removed. The draft Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP)-2020 circulated by the MoD in July, 2020 seeks to restrict the scope of the Buy (IDDM) category only to those Indian companies which can offer indigenously designed, developed and manufactured equipment with a minimum IC of 50 percent. This would completely rule out the possibility of importing any equipment if an indigenously designed equivalent is available from the Indian sources. Coming back to the negative list, the August 9 press release says that the list has been prepared after several rounds of consultations with all stakeholders, including the armed forces, DRDO, Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) and the private industry to assess their capability for manufacturing various types of ammunition, weapons, platforms and equipment in India. This implies that the list comprises items, of which indigenously designed and developed prototypes will be available, and the Indian companies will be ready to go into production, when the embargo comes into effect. That being the case, the existing procedure anyway would not

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MAHINDRA

An indigenously developed Mahindra Marksman Light Armoured Personnel Carrier Vehicle

have permitted import any such item, leaving no option but to procure such items under the ‘Buy (IDDM)’ category from the Indian companies. Seen in this perspective, the negative list does not add much value to the existing policy on procurement of indigenously designed equipment, except for making it more inflexible.

Negative List as an indication of future requirements of the armed forces

According to the August 9 press release, the ‘aim behind promulgation of the list is to apprise the Indian defence industry about the anticipated requirements of the Armed Forces so that they are better prepared to realise the goal of indigenisation’. This is reminiscent of the Technology and Capability Roadmap (TPCR) notified by the MoD in April, 2013 which too aimed at providing a glimpse of the military capabilities required over the next 15 years so that the industry could partner with the MoD in developing and productionising the requisite technologies to meet the requirement of the armed forces. The second TPCR was notified by the MoD in 2018 to provide to the industry an overview of the equipment expected to be inducted till late 2020s so that the industry could plan or actually commence developing the requisite technologies,

as e t head h e g d u b te a A separ carved out of th for t also been ocurement budge ses capital pr cater for purcha 2020-21 todomestic sources f r om t he

forge partnerships with technology providers, and make arrangements for production. Unlike the previous document, TPCR 2018 contained specific information on broad parameters, requisite technologies, and approximate quantitative requirement in respect of as many as 221 projects/programmes. The negative list notified on August 09 serves the same purpose as the TPCRs of 2013 and 2018, except in two respects. One, unlike the earlier TPCRs, it specifies the cut-off dates by which the Indian industry is expected to be ready to deliver the items included therein, as there will be a complete embargo on import of such items after stipulated cut-off dates. And

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two, such items should be indigenously designed and developed by the Indian industry. This seems like a good strategy to galvanise the Indian industry, but several issues that could impinge on its execution will have to be addressed to make it succeed.

Missing odds and ends

Speaking at a webinar organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) on August 17, a top MoD official told the participants that the government ‘is now working on the second negative import list of defence items’ and expects ‘the industry to come forward and start investing to meet our requirements,'. One cannot help wondering why the objective of this exercise cannot be achieved under the existing procedure, at the most by just tweaking it a little bit. For example, all the embargoed – and to be embargoed – items could be included in the list of Make-II design and development projects which are self-funded by the industry, stipulating the cut-off date by which the industry must complete design and development. If nothing else, this would have been less upsetting for the foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) who must be wondering about the impact of this ‘negative list’ on their prospects in the

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

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India’s Nag anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) indigenously developed by DRDO

Indian defence market. Be that as it may, since MoD seems keen on releasing the second list, it may be worthwhile looking at some problematic aspects. One, there is a need to define the parameters for determining whether the equipment is indigenously designed and developed so that no disputes arise on this count with the industry, especially the private sector entities. This assumes a greater significance in view of a second press release, issued on August 10, which says that for a product to be considered as an indigenous system, the percentage of IC has to meet the minimum laid down specifications and that the manufacturers ‘are also required to ensure indigenisation and decrease import content to the permissible limit’. It is difficult to understand these multiple requirements that a vendor must meet for his product to be acknowledged as indigenously designed and developed. If the vendor meets the minimum IC requirement prescribed for the Buy (IDDM) category under which all the embargoed items would probably be procured (this too requires to be confirmed by the MoD) what is the purpose of stipulating additional requirement of ensuring ‘indigenisation and (decreasing) import content to the permissible limit’ that the vendor must meet? Two, almost all the items are

n l r ep or t o ia c i f f o o n T he r e i s a s t a nd e x i s t i ng e v e why th p nd procedures ha n a o policies red as expected n o not delive se of indigenisati i the prom eliance lf e a nd s r

mentioned in the list in generic terms. The list does not contain even broad specifications and other minimal information about any item, unlike TPCR 2018 in which these details were given to rectify one of the biggest flaws of TPCR 2013. With this, the negative list, which is essentially a reformatted TPCR by another name, has turned full circle. How is this going to be ensured that the indigenously designed and developed product, other than those that are already being made in India as per the armed forces’ specifications like the Pinaka Rocket and Akash Missile systems, meets the operational and qualitative requirements of the armed forces?

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Instances of the products developed by DRDO/DPSUs not finding favour with the armed forces are not uncommon. The most recent case is of the Indian Navy (IN), which is reportedly not in favour of buying the Naval Utility Helicopter (NUH) made by the stateowned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) on the grounds that the size of the blades and the time it takes them to fold exceeds IN’s operational requirement as this could hamper rescue or quick surveillance missions. Such possibilities would make it commercially unviable for the industry, especially the private sector, to undertake design and development of the embargoed items. Three, the issue is not just about the specifications. One thing that came out clearly when the TPCR-2013 was issued was that in the absence of information about operational requirements, essential qualitative requirements, approximate quantity, assurance that the equipment will be procured from successful vendors even if it has to be on a single vendor basis, etc., the private industry cannot present a business case to their boards for investing in the developmental projects to meet the future requirement of the armed forces. The biggest problem is the uncertainty about whether the MoD will indeed buy the embargoed items and, if so, when. The industry cannot be expected to design and develop a product risking

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WIKIPEDIA

A rugged computing tablet used by the United States Army

not only its rejection by the armed forces on the grounds that it does not meet their requirement, but also braving the uncertainty that the product meeting all specifications will be procured by the MoD without any higgle-haggle about the price. Four, while TPCR-2013 now seems to be a thing of the past, the negative list creates another category of projects in addition to 221 projects listed in TPCR2018 and 53 projects under the ‘Make’ category, fifty of which are being selffunded by the industry. It was only in July, 2020 that the first Request for Proposal was issued for any ‘Make’ project – four years after it was introduced – for Manoeuvrable Expandable Aerial Targets (MEAT). Besides these projects, several other projects are being pursued under the Defence Technology Fund and iDEX (Innovation for Defence Excellence) scheme. With different agencies involved in execution of these diverse projects, there is a need for creating a mechanism for coordination so that all these efforts are harmonised towards a common goal. The MoD not only needs to set up such a mechanism immediately, but also clarify whether design and development of the embargoed items could be taken up under the ‘Make’ category, one of whose

es ure requir d e c o r p g n The existi ital procurement nder p a c du every ategorise ies c e b to l a propos several categor one of the d in the Defence P)prescribe ent Procedure (DP Procurem 2016

sub-categories also involves funding of prototype development by the MoD. Five, India has been wooing the global companies to manufacture defence equipment in India. The Strategic Partnership Model introduced in 2017 for making aircraft, helicopters, submarines and armoured fighting vehicles in India, envisages collaboration between Indian companies and foreign OEMs. Such collaboration is also envisaged under the ‘Buy and Make (Indian)’ and ‘Buy and Make’ procurement categories. All these categories basically entail local manufacturing of equipment/platform

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originally designed and developed by the foreign OEM. In May this year, the finance minister announced raising of the cap on foreign direct investment in defence from 49 per cent to 74 per cent trough the automatic route and the proposal is presently before the cabinet for approval. A new category called ‘Buy (Global –Manufacture in India) is proposed to be included in the Defence Acquisition Procedure-2020, presently being finalised by the MoD. Notification of the negative list, which in any case gives a negative vibe, could make them anxious about their prospects in the Indian defence market. Although it appears that the first negative list does not seriously impinge on the projects in which the foreign OEMs are likely to be involved, assurance from the MoD that the second and subsequent lists would not impair their prospects would go a long way in assuaging their apprehensions.

Need for a formal government order

It would be desirable for MoD to address all such issues that have a bearing on execution of the projects included in the negative list, only some of which have been highlighted here, and issue a formal government letter/order/notification. Notification of the negative list as an

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WIKIMEDIA

Production line of HAL Dhruv helicopters in Bengaluru

annexure to a press note is an unusual way of promulgating a new policy decision.

Separate budget for local procurement

The decision to create a separate budget head to cater for purchases from the domestic sources provides a surreal and disjointed footnote to embargo on imports. The contract for any embargoed item is unlikely to be awarded during the current year ending March 2021 and, therefore, earmarking of a separate budget for domestic purchases will not make any difference to these projects. Even if this decision is seen in isolation, its impact remains unclear as it is not known how much additional money will become available, after accounting for all the committed liabilities, for awarding new contracts to the domestic companies during the current year as a result of the creation of a separate moiety of Rs 52,000 crore, and whether it will be possible for the MoD/services to conclude enough fresh contacts to utilise those additional funds. It remains unclear whether this is going to be a regular and formal feature of the capital budget. It may create another

d e s no t ad o d t s li e tiv The nega e to the existing lu a much v procurement policy on ously designed ng o f i n d i g e n t , e x c e p t f o r ma k i equipmen flexible it more in

complication in management of funds if it is going to be. For, in a situation where the funds are likely to remain underutilised under one segment while there is a requirement of additional funds under the other segment, MoD will have to go through the time-consuming process of re-appropriation of funds from one segment to the other. While one will have to wait and see how the decision to impose an embargo

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on import of a large number of items and creation of a separate budget head for domestic procurement pans out, one cannot help getting the feeling that the MoD has boxed itself into a corner. It will have no option but to waive the embargo if indigenously developed items with requisite specifications are not available by the stipulated dates. Creation of a separate budget head may not be of much help. Given the fact that the gap between the funds asked for by the services and the budget allocation raising more than fourfold from about Rs 23,000 crore a decade back to about Rs 1,03,000 crore this year, and there being little chances of this situation improving any time soon, MoD may find it difficult to procure everything that figures in the negative list, assuming that the industry would be ready with indigenous design and production capacity when the embargo kicks in. Amit Cowshish is a former Financial Advisor (Acquisition), Ministry of Defence and Consultant, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting Nimu in Ladakh for interacting with Indian troops on July 3, 2020

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IS THE “NEW LAC NORMAL” HERE TO STAY? Presenting a “Reality Check”, GEN RAJ MEHTA argues that while India’s conventional war-fighting approach suffices for Pakistan (in the event of Chinese collusion in SSN), the Chinese fight very differently. Thus, Indian forces will have to balance conventional wisdom for Pakistan with Chinese unorthodoxy and recourse to deception and deceit and trump both approaches

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he ongoing Sino-Indian standoff since May 5, 2020 has resulted in serial standoffs/ unarmed Neanderthal clashes from Naku La in the Muguthang Sub Sector of North Sikkim to the Depsang Bulge, south of the Karakoram Pass in the very sensitive DBO portion of Sub Sector North (SSN). It is in proximity of the strategic LehDarbuk-Shyok-Galwan-Murgo-DBO Road nearing completion by BRO after overcoming substantial terrain-related and alignment hurdles. That this road is a major reason for China to have upped the ante against India, even as it was coping with the rapid spread of the Chinese-started COVID-19 pandemic is a no-brainer. The Chinese Global Times editorial comment and diplomatic Corps says as much. One also cannot ignore the Chinese penchant for “teaching lessons” to countries that defy/challenge its proprietary arrogance in calling China the “Middle Kingdom” or Zhongguo. So seriously do they take this fixation that they have made a 89x41m Map Mural (See Graphic-1) between “Fingers” 4 and 5 descending into the Pangong Lake in India’s Chushul Sector. They have depicted the ancient name of China in Mandarin and, alongside, the map of China to let satellites pick up their claim of possession and intimidate those who need of learning lessons. Let’s just say India isn’t amused and has strongly retaliated.

China has better perspective planning/ infrastructure and operational balance Unlike India which does not invest too much in deep strategic planning China thinks and acts deep. See Graphic-2 for one depiction of deep planning by the PLA with respect to its LAC operations. In an article of August 14, 2006, a Google Earth follower, a German, KenGrok was quoted by author Stephen Hutcheon (https://www.smh.com. au/technolog y/the-riddle-of-chinasa r e a - 5 1 - 2 0 0 6 0 8 1 4 - g d o 6 6 w. h t m l ) for identifying this model. Though computer simulation has come about in a big way, terrain models aren’t obsolete and are used to train PLA soldiers for warlike contingencies and pilots of PLAAF on perception management of terrain. This writer feels that that Chinese sensitivity to their strategic highway linking Kashgar to Lhasa through Aksai Chin and Indian offensive threats to it was one possible aim of the PLA wargaming contingencies thereto. What must be remembered is that the

Graphic-1: Finger 4 ridge/base on the LAC is choked with defences. The boxed map mural is on its East – easy pickup for satellites. Retd Col Nitin Chandra, an erudite open-source satellite imagery expert has interpreted the imagery.

site with full supporting infrastructure for troops was located by Google Earth bloggers/followers 14 years ago; irrefutable proof of deep and meticulous Chinese planning and rehearsals, followed by limited ground execution till interdicted by Indian troops. Also see — https://armchairtravelogue.blogspot. com/2009/01/1500-model-of-aksai-chinarea_06.html Though the current imbroglio started in 2019 at Naku La in North Sikkim, it was the June 15/16 2020 outbreak of violence leading to fatalities on both sides at Galwan that inflamed passions nationwide with both sides losing officers and men; the Chinese dead exceeding Indian losses as judged by foreign observers. Prisoners were taken and later released on both sides. There were serious physical standoffs in the Pangong area and eye to eye confrontations elsewhere in Galwan, in the Hot Springs/Gogra area; in the Depsang Bulge where deep penetration above Murgo near Burtse has been attempted and heavy Chinese troop movement in the Middle Sector/ Mansavovar and Trijunction area where Chinese/India/Nepalese boundaries meet.

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Indian Army orders for using personal weapons for self defence emanated after the Galwan deaths and stop-start disengagement started days later with meetings at all levels from Foreign Secretary down to Maj Gen/ equivalent. There is little to report but for semantics and, unlike in the past, both sides continue improving their defence and infrastructure to beat the weather before winter sets in making large scale operations well nigh impossible. Day temperatures in SSN already touch minus 10 degrees centigrade and reach beyond minus 50 degrees centigrade. Meetings have followed each other with India demanding “complete disengagement and de-escalation to April 2020 positions” and Chinese Ambassador Sun Weidong stating that China favours not clarifying the LAC. India has imposed economic sanctions and cancellation of IT/railway/sports/ infrastructure related contracts which are unlikely to be more than pin-pricks for the much larger Chinese economy. In terms of perception management however, these measures have popular support. The Chinese media reactions have promoted blameworthiness on India for encroaching Chinese territory.

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Graphic-2: A 2006 picture showing Chinese workmen creating a 900m x 700m (350 x 450 km) 1:500 scale-model of Aksai Chin and surrounding areas of 1,57,500 square kms. Located at Huangyangtan, near Yinchuan, Ningxia, Northern China

The ground reality is stark: India claims Aksai Chin as its rightful legacy and China rejects that claim besides claiming almost all of Arunachal Pradesh. These stands are incongruous and, probably, the new normal which appears to have emerged is that India’s demand of status quo ante (return to April 2020 positions) will probably not be met. Similarly, Chinese hopes of India making territorial concessions in Arunachal Pradesh and elsewhere is equally a pipe dream. The reason is stark: China is not willing to clarify the LAC and India’s parliament has approved retaking PoK and Aksai Chin; so there is diplomatically and militarily no going back but accepting the new normal. There is lack of consistency in Chinese Graphic-3: Demchok is a persistent trouble spot statements on the faceoff. On June 16, Chinese Colonel consensus vide which “the sovereignty Zhang Shuili, spokesperson over the Galwan Valley area had always for the PLA's Western Command, said belonged to China". Note that on June that the Indian military violated bilateral

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22, US News & World Report reported that US intelligence agencies have assessed that the Chief of China's Western Theater Command had sanctioned the skirmish. This supports this writer’s belief that nothing that the Chinese have done has not been planned, rehearsed and then executed.

What are the stakes involved for China and India?

The stakes are amazingly high for both countries. Let us take China first; both in LAC and thereafter in generic terms. Starting with the North, the Naku La incident and had physical confrontation in which the PLA came off second best. Muguthang is a remote, separated part of India’s North Sikkim deployment in so far as Kerang Plateau at 17,000 feet is concerned. Access to it is across a steep pass. There is nothing much the PLA can expect to do in North Sikkim with the area “settled” but one must be ready for Chinese surprises. In the Middle Sector, again, there

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isn’t much at stake for China except posturing/fishing in troubled waters that have resulted from the current India-Nepal impasse on border alignment. The recent media reports of enhanced Chinese deployment in this area including possible SAM related infrastructure development in the Mansarovar Lake area is worrisome. PLA activity there has resulted in Indian alertness in the area and need to get India-Nepal relations back on track. See Graphic-3. Demchok/Nyoma are areas where Chinese transgressions take place routinely on account of differing perceptions of grazing rights but this issue does not figure in the current standoff. India however needs to speed up its infrastructure in this area. It is in the Pangong area and in SSN that synchronised PLA driven trouble erupted in the ongoing faceoff. In brief, the areas where both sides have traditionally patrolled (between Fingers-4 and 8) have been transgressed by China with physical unarmed confrontation taking place resulting in consequent serious injuries on both sides. The Pangong area is called the Chushul Sector by us since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. The Chushul Valley is bounded by the Ladakh Range on one side and the terminal ranges of the Karakoram, colloquially called the Pangong Range. It is critical for India not just because of its road connectivity with Leh across the Ladakh Range but also because it has Chushul Advance Landing Ground (ALG) that has great strategic advantage as heavy transport aircraft can land on it. India landed AMX-13 14 ton tanks on it using AN-12 aircraft in Oct 1962. These fought along with 114 Inf Bde/3 Inf Div/15 Corps troops in Oct/ Nov 1962 to stave off Chinese threats to Chushul. The last important pass on the Pangong/Karakoram Range, Rezang La on the LAC was the scene of a heroic last stand by ‘C’ Company of 13 Kumaon led by Maj Shaitan Singh, PVC (Posthumous) with him and 113 soldiers dying in unsuccessful defence of the pass on 18 Nov 1962. On the adjacent Gurkha Hill, 1/8 GR (less a company) earned an MVC posthumously and other awards vainly defending it but, in so doing, defending Chushul Airfield across the Spanggur/ Moldo Gap which lay below along with the AMX tanks of 20 Lancers. Behind Gurkha Hill was deployed the remaining 1/8 GR company across the Pangong Lake at Sirijap (Finger-8) under Maj Dhan Singh Thapa. His company

Graphic-4: One Chinese approach to Chushul ALG were via Sirijap

Graphic-5: The longer Chinese approach to Chushul was via Rezang La

suffered severe casualties and he, seriously wounded, was taken prisoner after a heroic fight that got him the PVC. See Graphics-4 and 5.

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What is important to note is that the Chinese suffered heavily in this area in 1962 and, on balance, we yielded ground but at heavy cost to the PLA. In

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Graphic-6: The SSN transgressions by PLA since early May 2020

the recent physical confrontations, the Indians have again given as much as they have got. However, Pangong/Chushal area, taken singly or with Demchok in its pale has strategic value because once taken, Leh, the Indian Army’s communications and command control hub stands exposed to PLA depredations.. The PLA transgression in the Fingers area cannot be taken lightly by us as China, more than in the SSN/Galwan area, has developed permanent defence and supporting infrastructure that indicates that status quo ante as in April 2020 is a very remote possibility indeed. Chushul ALG also remains a vulnerability even if the IAF has proactively revived more ALGs like Fukche, close to Demchok. Let us now look at SSN in context of the current standoff and this has greater strategic significance; is perhaps

the casus belli for the entire, carefully nurtured and planned faceoff by PLA. Readers may recall this is the only area where China and Pakistan can carry out active or passive collusion to degrade Indian warfighting capability and divide its attention between two fronts. It may be recalled that, way back in 1963, China had obtained Shaksgam Valley (5000 square kms) in the Siachen area on permanent lease in exchange of small territorial concessions. See Graphic-6. Hot Springs/Gogra, Galwan Valley from LAC to its junction with Shyok, Depsang/Raki Nallah; its Bulge, DBO ALG, and, towering above just 15 odd kms away, the forbidding Karakoram Pass, the entry gate to the old Silk trade route passing through SSN via Depsang Pass/Saser La have something in common: They are points on the new 225 km BRO constructed road that links

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Leh to DBO over Saser La and on to Murgo village of a few Baltis, “the gateway to hell” as known in Balti…Burtse is close by; the area of Murgo being called the “Depsang Bulge” where the deepest penetration of 19 km was made by a PLA platoon in April 2013 but vacated under Indian military and diplomatic pressure and where PLA mechanised forces are currently disposed in the Depsang Plains area with Indian mechanised forces in all weather watch. See Graphic-7 for this BRO road alignment and the traditional part foot part mule route which was used to maintain DBO till the new road was commissioned in 2019 though finishing work on it still continues. Note also that the Sasoma-Murgo alignment is being rapidly made jeepable as a far lesser vulnerable alternate to the Leh-DarbukShyok-Margo-DBO Road if cut off at any or all of several points in its alignment with the Shyok River, running as it does parallel to the LAC at these areas. A brief word on Depsang Plains will not be out of place at this juncture. See Graphic-7. The roughly rectangular, 750 square km Depsang Plains at over 16000 feet windswept the year round at around minus 10 degrees centigrade are located at the LAC about 35 km south of the Karakoram Pass and 20 odd kms below DBO. India controls the larger western portion of the plains as part of Ladakh, whereas the much smaller eastern portion is part of Aksai Chin held by China but claimed by India. In April 2013, the Chinese PLA troops sneaked into the Indian part set up a temporary camp in the Depsang Bulge. The PLA troops had then intruded 19 km across the LAC to camp at the Raki Nalla area; with the confrontation finally being resolved after 21 days of hectic diplomatic negotiations after then Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid had called the transgression as a minor “acne”. That notwithstanding, the PLA managed another intrusion near Burtze in September 2015. With the Chinese asserting that their claim in Depsang runs another five km westward beyond their 2013 19 km entry, it is clear that talks where China maintains the “sanctity of remaining within its borders” mean precious little to Indian negotiators, more so when China comes for such talks with written down scripts. In the current impasse, the Chinese presence is at Y Junction/Bottleneck where there is one of four big rocky outcrops on the Depsang Plains., a few kms off Burtse. The worrisome issue is there for us to

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Graphic-7: The Sasoma-Saser La-Murgo alignment is marked in broken yellow lines. Note that it links the Leh-Siachen Base and Leh-DBO axes and is a critical SSN infrastructure development

examine: The Chinese have easy access to cut off DBO by interdicting the Leh-DBO Road severally as also the Sasoma-Saser La-Murgo under-development road across “Probably the most impressive and dangerous of Ladakhi passes, Saser La,” as described by Historian John Keay. If DBO is so circumscribed, collusion with Pakistan in the Siachen area would be possible by opening up the Karakoram Pass route. Such collusion will be assisted by the fact that the adjacent Shaksgam Valley is already with China and the Pakistani Army has the Indian Army on the Saltoro Ridge of the Karakorams and its passes between them and China in the SSN. It may then be that the disparaging “acne” assessment of the Depsang Plains intrusion by China made off-the-cuff by Salman Khurshid may return to haunt him like a huge, jagged scar. That India’s Armed Forces won’t let that happen is our saving grace.

A reality check- quo vadis India?

In an unusual and bold move, government bit the bullet a few days ago when it accepted that the Chinese had transgressed in several areas across the LAC. The follow up atmospherics are of no consequence but the hard talk speaks of a new beginning and acceptance of ground realities on the LAC and the hard slog ahead. This reality is also that the Chinese are very hard to interact with at formal

military and diplomatic levels. The pragmatic solution that the union government has drawn is that enhanced military deployment supporting operational logistics before winters isolate the area climatically is now de jure as return to April 2020 positions on an undemarcated LAC has few takers in the short term. Reports suggest that optical fiber cable is now hooking up the elaborate Chinese defence works/ infrastructure. We can assume India is doing likewise for its warfighting equipment/men/materials besides engaging in contingency planning. It is heartening to note that the IAF has been proactively onboard ab initio and the Navy is ready with its plans and options. Such synergy has rarely happened; the last time around being in 1971 when Bangladesh was liberated by synergised Indian Armed Forces. On 23 August, 2020, the CDS Gen Bipin Rawat announced that, should ongoing diplomatic efforts and militaryto-military talks fail, India will explore “other options”. These haven’t been specified but reflect the unusually positive state of the Armed Forces; a welcome sign. It is this writer’s military conviction that while the apex China Study Group does what it can in strategising the current stalemate and coming out winners; it may be the right time, at functional operational and tactical

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September 2020

levels to revisit the key tenets of Chinese warfighting with their enormous focus on deception and deceit as the linchpin of their war- waging strategy. This, the writer feels, will help our men and planners to better understand the new normal on the LAC and cope with it proactively. This revisit, the writer feels, is necessary because while our conventional warfighting approach suffices for Pakistan (in the event of Chinese collusion in SSN), the Chinese fight very differently. Thus, our forces will have to balance conventional wisdom for Pakistan with Chinese unorthodoxy and recourse to deception and deceit and trump both approaches.

Deception is the Chinese way of war

Chinese military teaching opines that “warfare is a way of deception” and promotes an asymmetric approach to fighting. War is interpreted as: ‘you die and I live’ and morality is consciously ignored. In Chinese understanding, deception refers to unconventional warfare underpinned on cheating and ability to take the constant flux of warfare in ones stride. This makes deception a “magic weapon”. Recent assessment sees "seduction"—convincing the enemy to make fatal mistakes—as the highest form of deception, with misleading the enemy/denying intelligence it’s lesser

COVER STORY

form. The Chinese penchant for “Salami tactics” originated from the Hungarian szalámitaktika in the 1940’s is a divideand-conquer process of threats and alliances used to eventually take a landscape piece by piece. In this fashion, the opposition is eliminated "slice by slice" till the objective is achieved.

Methods

Sun Tzu’s Art of War presents 12 methods of employing deception. The first four methods deceive/mislead. The next four provide ways of adopting a flexible response strategy. The last four focus on weakening an adversary’s warfighting capability in terms of morale, psychology, stamina, cohesiveness. For example, Method-9 (If your adversary is angry, aggravate him) implies “Thinking of ways to enrage an enemy if he is bad tempered or obstinate and selfopinionated, causing him to do battle in a state of unreason.”

Applying deception

PLA teaching is littered with deception applications: “Show yourself to intimidate the enemy”; “Show the false to confuse”; “Create momentum to harass”; “Deceive to obstruct.” PLA commanders must employ agile and flexible deceptive responses to the actual conditions encountered in battle. Magic weapon or not, the fact is that deception has become the accepted Chinese way of war. The Chinese have since the 1960’s, also adapted the Russian approach to deception called Maskirovka ('disguise'), extending from camouflage to denial and deception. Deceptive measures include concealment, imitation with decoys and dummies, maneuvers intended to deceive, denial, and disinformation. The doctrine includes strategic, political, and diplomatic means including manipulation of "the facts", and perceptions to affect the media and opinions to achieve tactical, strategic, national and international goals. In the Chinese-Russian doctrine, a commander’s gift of cunning and guile is aided by deception practiced by the whole organisation. It does not carry the sense of being "evil" but instead, desirable. Military deception has multiple types – optical, thermal, radar, radio, sound/ silence; varying environments – aquatic, space, and atmosphere, each involving active or passive measures. The levels are the conventional military ones, strategic, operational, and tactical. Finally, there are identified principles

Graphic-8: Oblique image of Chinese Defences/Infrastructure

– plausibility, persistent aggressive activity; technological capability all backed by political strategy. Readers are bound to be curious and wonder if such deception and deceit has been tried out in war or warlike conditions. This writer will briefly recall what happened in the 1999 Kosovo War when NATO/USAF confronted the Yugoslav Forces in this context and then show Graphics of how cleverly China has conducted its ongoing LAC battle/ created defences strongly hinged on the theory and practice of deception, deceit and high technology involving satellites.

The Kosovo War

Op Allied Force/Op Noble Anvil was the NATO/US bombing of Yugoslavia in March-June 1999 during the Kosovo War. NATO's intervention was prompted by the then Yugoslavia's bloodshed and ethnic cleansing of Albanians by Serbs, which drove the Albanians into neighbouring countries. The Serbs were tacitly supported by Russia and China. Air combat took place between the Yugoslav Air Force and NATO/USAF flying F-15s and F-16s flying from Italian bases. They attacked mainly Yugoslav MiG-29 fighters in poor operational shape and had attained near-total air supremacy. NATO reported that it lost 21 UAVs with the Yugoslav Army claiming 30 including

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using helicopters to shoot down drones. US/NATO F-16CJ/Tornado ECR aircraft carried out successful Suppression of Air Defences (SEAD) operations destroying/ jamming/intercepting Yugoslav radar systems using HARM missiles. NATO reportedly fired 743 HARMs during the course of the 78-day campaign, but could confirm the destruction of only three of the original 25 SA-6 batteries. Over 800 SAMs were fired by Yugoslav forces at NATO aircraft, for the downing of only two Apache helicopters and two NATO manned aircraft (one F-16C and one F-117 were shot down). After launching 38,000 sorties, NATO/USAAF claimed the destruction of 93 tanks (out of 600), 153 APCs, 339 other vehicles, and 389 artillery systems of the enemy. A Newsweek piece published in 2000 however stated that only 14 tanks, 12 self-propelled guns, 18 APCs, and 20 artillery systems had actually been obliterated, not that far from the Yugoslavs' own estimates of 13 tanks, 6 APCs, and 6 artillery pieces. The Yugoslav Air Force sustained 121 aircraft destroyed.

Deception, decoys, concealment

camouflage

and

Operation Allied Force inflicted far less damage on the Yugoslav military than

COVER STORY

Graphic-9: Vertical imagery of Graphic-8 with defence works/infrastructure numbered

originally thought due to the use of camouflage and decoys. NATO hit a lot of dummy and deception targets. Other misdirection techniques were used to disguise targets including replacing the batteries of fired missiles with mockups, as well as burning tires beside major bridges and painting roads in different colors in order to emit varying degrees of heat, thus guiding NATO missiles away from vital infrastructure.

and indicate why status quo ante is a firm No-No option for China. It also indicates to what extent China has planned its defences and deception and why much assessment done at least in open media/ social platforms may be needlessly optimistic or off-track. The main reason

is hasty reading of commercial satellite imagery and yardstick application of value without detailed analysis or awareness of intrinsic use of deception and deceit by China. The graphics have been taken off Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) imagery from Google Earth by Col Nitin Chandra, a retired satellite imagery expert who has trained at the Army’s Intelligence School, the National Remote Sensing Agency (NSRA) Hyderabad besides doing other imagery training and practice over years in terms of payload planning and telemetry of Low Earth Satellites (LEO) that orbit in varying modes as per need at heights of 500-800 kms. Most satellites have a resolution of 0.6m (60 cm). The golden rule (often violated) is that it isn’t the imagery that speaks but its detailed interpretation which is often found missing in reportage. Graphic-8 depicts Chinese defences in black on the Finger-4 ridgeline completely overlooking the ITBP infrastructure seen in the Finger-3 valley. In the Finger-4/5 valley and highlighted in pink, you see Chinese habitat, HQ and other logistics infrastructure. The black top road is depicted in yellow. The map mural is indicated by the lakeside in black. Graphic-9 gives details of the defence works by number, some of which will be shown zoomed in to show their detail. The impression one gathers is that the

Assessment

Even a lay reader will make out the staggering impact of Yugoslav deception on the damages it suffered from relentless bombing by US/NATO forces in the mountainous Kosovo area where heights and conditions are nowhere as daunting as in the high Himalayas and Karakoram Ranges. Not just that, the impact of AD weapons on attacking aircraft was equally abysmal. Post war assessments discovered that most NATO/ USAF claimed “hits” were on dummy/ decoy targets which the Serbs had set us with jugaad more than sophisticated technology.

Chinese defences and infrastructure in ongoing standoff

A look now at the defence works and infrastructure taken of a small portion of the Pangong area will be eye opening

Graphic-10: The blow up is of Site Pink 9, a HQ location with wide dispersion.

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September 2020

COVER STORY

Graphic-11: The blow up is of Site Pink 4, a largely tented/stores/vehicle area

defences are well sited, permanent and well connected. Please see Black numbers- 4/5 and Pink numbers- 4 and 9 as these will be shown blown up. Graphic-10 depicts a well laid out controlling HQ under camouflage. The orange/pink blobs are a false colour and merely indicates a camouflaged position. What it contains and why is the subject of detailed interrogation. Keeping deception in mind, nearly 40 percent could be false depiction; a huge amount made credible by camouflage/ support material. Graphic-11 depicts elaborate semicircular tentage clusters, stores, dug down vehicles and open transport mostly under camouflage and interconnected by tracks. Remember the element of deception and you can scale down initial impressions of a huge assembly of troops. Graphic-12 indicates the extensive dumping along and on the Finger-4 top and slopes as well as by the roadside. These are classic indications of permanent defence material like corrugated iron sheets/iron beams/ wooden logs, cement, construction tools and other material. Ample scope for deception exists using such material and digging.

Overview

The writer has carried out a detailed reality check on the ongoing LAC standoff as it exists. He has examined it holistically in the light of Chinese

predilection for deception and deceit. This Chinese capacity has dictated a new normal for India which we have accepted and are preparing for even as diplomacy and military talks seek a solution however remote it appears as of today. The CDS has indicated the possibility of examining “other options” if current efforts fail which is something that needs a detailed review/option formulation. We have a strategic need to cater for collusion between China/Pakistan and therefore need to be prepared for conventional as well as unorthodox warfighting. We also need to remember that satellite imagery is double edged and is as much a perception management/ deception tool as it is a planning tool if interpreted assiduously by practical, trained interpreters. It is clear that this aspect has not been understood well enough resulting in misinformation/ wrong deductions about what we are confronted with. It is good to remember, in concluding, that the armed forces have, this time around, shown enviable synergy at the very start. Should push come to shove, they will work to wipe off 1962 as India’s recurring bad memory. Unlike China, this ancient civilisation does not teach lessons but effectively delivers its Idea of India. Maj Gen RS Mehta, AVSM, VSM(Retd) is an Armoured Corps veteran

Graphic-12: The blow up shows Black Sites- 4 and 5 atop Finger-4. The blow up has amazing detail

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SOCIAL DISTANCING IS THE MANTRA

geopolitics SALUTES THOSE IN THE FRONTLINES SERVING US

SPECIAL REPORT

HIGH TIME FOR AGNI-VI

INTERCONTINENTAL

BALLISTIC MISSILE Now is the time for the NDA-3 government to prove its political will by swiftly approving the AgniVI thermonuclear ICBM programme which will push India into the elite league of military superpowers like USA, Russia and China. Such a capability will give India tremendous diplomatic leverage at global high tables and will deter big powers from attempting Balkanisation of India during future conflicts, explains AMARTYA SINHA

An Agni-V missile being test-launched

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SPECIAL REPORT

enowned Indian philosopher Vishnugupta had once very pragmatically stated, “The power of a king lies in his mighty arms. Security of citizens at peacetime is very important because state is the only saviour of men and women who get affected only because of negligence of the state.” At a time when expansionist aspirations of some rogue nations are on the rise all across the world, Vishnugupta’s quote is very much valid and applicable in totality, even in the third decade of the 21st century. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategic vision is to see India emerging as a first rung global military power by the middle of the new decade. Maintaining an effective intercontinental-range nuclear deterrence will play a key role in fulfilling this Indian dream. While the Agni-V, the nuclear capable intercontinental range ballistic missile (ICBM), has undergone seven successful test flights since 2012, there has been very little movement on the much-awaited Agni-VI missile project. After Agni-V’s maiden trial on April 19, 2012, former DRDO Chairman, Dr Vijay

MORGAN PHOENIX

India’s upcoming Agni-VI ICBM will have a 10,000 km-plus range

Kumar Saraswat had very clearly stated that India had no intention to cap the Agni missile programme and that there would be more missiles in the Agni series as a follow-up of Agni-V in the coming years. The Agni-V has an effective range of almost 5500 kms with a 1.5-tonne nuclear warhead. A basic law of physics is that due to gravity and momentum, there is an inverse relationship between the weight of a warhead and the range of a missile. If the same rocket boosters of Agni-V (better with a slow burning propellant) for the heavy load is used

MOD

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for a lighter load amounting to a 500 kg warhead, the range of the missile can be enhanced up to 10,000 km. So, by this theory, the Agni-V is already a 10,000 km-class ICBM albeit with a less powerful warhead. And this is one of the prime gaps in India’s nuclear deterrence which the Agni-VI is supposed to plug. Agni-VI is expected to have a range between 6,000 kms and 8,000 kms with a 3-tonne nuclear payload, and a range between 10,000 kms and 12,000 kms with a lighter 1.5 tonne package. Guidance system of Agni-VI will include inertial navigation system with Ring laser gyroscope, optionally augmented by IRNSS (Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System) along with terminal guidance with possible radar scene correlation (this is a kind of terrain contour mapping which will improve the accuracy of missile). In 2011, IAF’s former Chief of Air Staff, Pradeep Vasant Naik, who was also the head of Chiefs of Staff Committee had vehemently argued in favour of broadening India’s nuclear striking capabilities beyond the immediate neighbourhood. The higher range of Agni-VI will bring at least four of the capitals of major world powers within India’s strike envelope. A 10,000 km-plus range will increase India’s flexibility which is very important for an effective deterrence and will also enable the country to hit Chinese ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and warships attempting to hide as far out as the Southern Indian Ocean and Central Pacific Ocean. This is assuming India develops more accurate ICBM guidance systems (on the lines of China’s DF21D anti-ship ballistic missile) against warships and submarines. India must wish that the Agni-Vi should have the minimum range of 8000 kms (equivalent to China’s JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile) which will make the ICBM programme worthy of its stature. Agni-VI is supposed to be capable of carrying up to 10 nuclear/ thermonuclear warheads in MIRV (Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle) and MaRV (Manoeuvrable Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicle) configurations. The rocket may also have the capability to carry light decoys and chaffs to beat the most formidable anti-ballistic missile systems and to confuse hostile radar defences. As India has reportedly developed a deadly arsenal of doublestaged thermonuclear fusion devices and single stage boosted-fission bombs,

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THERMONUCLEAR POWER PUNCH

fter the ground shook under the hot desert sands of Pokhran on May 11, 1998, India had officially declared herself as a ‘full-fledged nuclear weapons power’ with two simultaneous nuclear blasts. Three more detonations followed on May 13, 1998 thus ending the series of planned tests. Soon after the series of explosions was over, eyebrows were raised in Western scientific and media circles regarding the blast-yield of one of the underground detonations. The thermonuclear weapon prototype which was reportedly detonated at an explosive yield of around 45 kilotons, soon found itself in the middle of the controversy. The device reportedly had a design yield of up to 200 kilotons and was dubbed as a fizzle by some Western experts. But the country’s scientific establishment later conducted an official press conference in which eminent scientists- Dr APJ Abdul Kalam and Dr Rajagopalachari Chidambaram clarified that the thermonuclear weapon performed on expected lines and that the blast yield of the Shakti-1 thermonuclear device was deliberately kept low taking into consideration the terrain and topography of the area and the test site’s proximity to Khetolai village. BARC (Bhabha Atomic Research Centre) officially clarified that Shakti-1 was a highly compact thermonuclear device which used a sophisticated fusion-boosted-fission trigger as the primary stage and a Tritium cylinder as the secondary stage. In order to put all controversies to rest, BARC also executed a radiochemical analysis of soil and rock samples extracted from the thermonuclear blast site. The post-shot radioactivity measurement report on the samples says“The signatures of the fusion reaction are activation products due to 14 MeV neutrons, such as, 54Mn, 22Na, 58Co, 46Sc, as marked in the gamma-ray spectrum. The estimation of 14 MeV neutron yield from the measured radioactivity of these products requires

the knowledge of the amount of the target elements present at the site of the event and the reaction cross sections. The two major radionuclides which could be assayed in most of the samples were 54Mn and 46Sc. Although the fission neutron spectrum has a high energy tail, the total number of neutrons produced by fusion fraction being much larger, the majority of the high energy neutrons can be attributed to fusion neutrons. The possible sources of error in the measurement of fission yield are: assay of radioactivity (5-7 percent); nuclear data such as half-life, gamma-ray branching intensity and fission yields (8 percent); and the error in integration which arises mainly due to the error in Rc (15 percent). In the assessment of fusion yield, the sources of errors are uncertainty in the elemental composition of the surrounding rock and its effect on the neutron spectrum used in the Monte Carlo simulations of the activity. The propagation of these errors leads to an overall error on the measured yield which is around 20 percent. Thus, it is concluded that the total yield of the thermonuclear device is 50 + 10 kT.” While the report confirms that 14 MeV neutrons were found as a result of initialisation of the fusion reaction from the secondary stage of the bomb, the total explosive yield has been disputed by senior scientists like Dr K Santhanam and Dr PK Iyenger who have argued that the total yield of the thermonuclear blast didn’t exceed 20 Kilotons. This once again puts into doubt the union government’s claim of having a deployable thermonuclear deterrence in operational configuration. The story of India’s Hydrogen Bomb programme (thermonuclear bombs) dates back to the late 1980s when scientists found an easy way to extract Tritium gas (an isotope of Hydrogen) from heavy water. Unlike nations like United States and Russia which used light water as a moderator in their nuclear reactors, the Indian nuclear program

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YOUTUBE

A thermonuclear weapon test being executed

was primarily based on heavy water. It is quite evident that the heavy water contained high doses of radioactive Tritium which exposed reactor workers to potential health hazards. So, an initial attempt was made to extract the Tritium component through water distillation. But soon, the process was abandoned as the Tritium collected through the process was in liquid form and proved to be extremely risky to handle and store. So, scientists found an alternative way to extract the Tritium through chemical exchange process followed by cryogenic distillation. The Tritium extracted through this innovative was stored in gaseous form and was 90 percent radioactive which rendered it highly useful for fabrication of thermonuclear weapons. Thus, what was dubbed primarily as an effort by scientists towards making the nuclear reactors safer by eliminating Tritium from heavy water, proved to be a boon for manufacturing of Hydrogen bombs. A pilot detritiation plant was also established in Kalpakkam nuclear research reactor. As the new process for extracting Tritium proved to be quite economical in comparison to the traditional process, stockpiling of Tritium became an easy task. As the Indian way of extracting Tritium from heavy water proved to be much cheaper than the age-old accelerator process used by the Americans, the country got the highly enriched Hydrogen’s isotope at negligible additional costs. Moreover, more electricity production by Indian nuclear reactors also ensured that large quantities of Tritium was extracted and stored for the country’s thermonuclear bomb program. The country which was once a gross importer of heavy water became a net exporter of the same compound by the late mid-1990s. It is estimated that India had assembled the first prototype thermonuclear device by 1995 in preparation of a test under the then union government led by erstwhile Prime Minister Narasimha Rao. But as American reconnaissance satellites hovered over the Pokhran firing range and the images of the test preparations circulated in the Western media, the Indian government had to cancel the test under American pressure. The Shakti-1 thermonuclear device was finally fabricated in test configurations and eventually exploded in 1998. While it is a well-known fact that no nuclear power has been able to successfully test a doublestaged thermonuclear weapon in the very first attempt, the Indian test and the ensuing speculations about the blast yields raises doubt over the deployability of the capability in

SPECIAL REPORT

India’s first ever thermonuclear device (Shakti-1 Hydrogen Bomb) was successfully detonated on May 11, 1998 in Pokhran

PIB

operational warhead configuration atop Agni series of medium-range, intermediate-range and intercontinental-range ballistic missiles. While questions have been repeatedly raised on India’s capability in possessing and fielding a credible thermonuclear deterrence, the country has reportedly deployed a small thermonuclear arsenal through ballistic missiles after the completion of Pokhran-2 series of tests. Renowned nuclear scientist Dr Anil Kakodkar while interacting with journalist- Karan Thapar during a media interview after the 1998 tests, confirmed that India has already fielded multiple hydrogen bombs in operational configuration. But the million-dollar question about India’s capability in potentially achieving massive thermonuclear yields during nuclear strikes without actually testing those devices in full design yields during field trials still carries an air of ambiguity. While renowned strategic experts like Bharat Karnad has repeatedly stated publicly that India should resume thermonuclear testing for mastering the double staged fusion design (Teller-Ulam design), there are others like R Prasannan who argue that India has already developed advanced supercomputer simulations and that bigger bombs with higher yields can be confidently developed and deployed based on the data gathered from previous tests. Strategic experts like Sanjay Badri Maharaj also argues that the question whether India has deployed a credible thermonuclear deterrence, is somehow irrelevant as the Shakti-1 device exploded on May 11, 1998 had a boosted-fission device as the first stage. A boosted-fission device is equivalent to a compact hydrogen bomb and will serve the purpose of a credible thermonuclear deterrence in the modernday strategic level battlefield when deployed onboard long-range ballistic missiles. As India’s deterrence requirements evolve over time, it is quite evident that the country must develop an effective and significantly large arsenal of thermonuclear weapons. The thermonuclear devices with adjustable and variable yields will make good use of India’s limited stockpile of fissile materials and will effectively act as a force multiplier. With increasing precision in the design and development of lighter and compact payloads, the thermonuclear warheads can be easily deployed onboard Agni-V and the upcoming AgniVI Intercontinental range Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) in the form of MIRVs (Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles) and MaRVs (Manoeuvrable Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles) which will massively boost India’s long-range striking capabilities deep inside the enemy’s heavily populated urban centres.

ce, ICBM for le ib d e r c Without a always be looked a l India wil othing more than try n s upon a ental bully- a coun with subcontin es to play hardballated to that aspir but ends up releg the giants league the minor

each MIRV warhead may have explosive yields of up to 250 kilotons, thus capable of wiping out entire metropolitan areas and vaporising tens of millions of people with a single strike. Having a gross weight of up to 70 tonnes, AgniVI is supposed to be a four-stage rocket which will also enable India to launch military satellites into low earth orbit (LEO) during contingencies, thus also validating its FOBS (Fractional Orbital Bombardment System) capability. Renowned strategic experts like Bharat Karnad, Brahma Chellaney and Rakesh Krishnan Simha have repeatedly argued in the past that India must develop a global striking capability with a credible ICBM force in the near future. “It is high time for India to develop genuine ICBMs with 10,000+ kms

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September 2020

range. The Agni-VI project should be immediately approved for development. Geopolitical pressures faced by a country are always the results of a nation’s will and its strategic vision. The incumbent union government must show the spine to stand up to such pressures without which India can never aspire to become a great power”, says Bharat Karnad, Research Professor at the Centre for Policy Research and a popular national security expert. A large ICBM force consisting of Agni-V and Agni-VI missiles will ensure a very strong security shield for the country in the strategic level battlefield and will severely deter big powers from attempting Balkanisation of India during future conflicts. While the erstwhile UPA-1 and UPA-2 governments were considered as ‘pacifist’ by many policymakers, it is high time for the incumbent NDA-3 government to prove its political will by swiftly approving the Agni-VI programme and by test launching the first prototype over the coming years, thus pushing India into the elite league of military superpowers like USA, Russia and China. Such a capability will give India tremendous diplomatic leverage at global high tables. Without a credible ICBM force, India will always be looked upon as nothing more than a subcontinental bully- a country that aspires to play hardball with the giants but ends up relegated to the minor league. The ball is now in the ruling dispensation’s court.

SPOTLIGHT

ARTICLE 370 â&#x20AC;&#x201D;

ONE YEAR LATER, HUGE INFRA PUSH IN J&K

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval eating biryani with locals while roaming the streets of Shopian after the abrogation of Article-370 DOORDARSHAN

The abrogation of Article-370 and Article-35A of the Constitution of India has seen an outpour of developmental initiatives in the two newly formed union territories, reports AMARTYA SINHA

n August 5, 2019, the NDA3 government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi abrogated Article-370 though a constitutional order and reorganised the state into

the two separate union territories of Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh. It has now been followed up with notification of new domicile rules. Meanwhile, the union government is also implementing a slew of measures through various

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developmental initiatives and an upcoming global business summit for ensuring Kashmirâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic progress in the long run. Following is a sneak peek into the various developmental projects and constructive initiatives which are set

SPOTLIGHT

to transform Kashmir and Ladakh in the new decade.

Boosting railway infrastructure

The Kashmir Railway Project (KRP) is being developed to provide a reliable allweather transport system to the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The line is officially known as the JammuUdhampur-Katra-Quazigund-Baramulla link (JUSBRL). KRP is the only railway line in mountainous ranges in India that is being constructed in broad gauge. The estimated cost of the project is $13 billion. The 345km extension of the Indian Railway network will allow a 900 km direct journey from New Delhi to Srinagar. The KRP line also connects Jammu with Srinagar. There will be 30 stations along the route and the network and will be served by up to 12 trains a day. The entire project is divided into four sections. While the first section referred to as Leg-0, stretches 53 km in the sub-mountainous region (Jammu to Udhampur) and has been operational since April 2005, the second section (Leg-1) connects Udhampur to Katra (25 km) and has been in operation since July 4, 2014. The 111 km-long third section (Leg2) will connect Katra to Banihal and is scheduled to be opened in 2022. It is the most challenging section, as it involves construction of many tunnels and viaducts. A 1.3 km long bridge being constructed across the river Chenab is the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s highest railway bridge. It will be 359 metres above the riverbed. The fourth section (Leg-3) which connects Banihal to Baramulla, is 135 km long. It includes 704 major and minor bridges across rivers, canals and roads. This section was completed in October 2009. As soon as the remaining work on Leg2 is completed, there will be seamless train operations between Srinagar and mainland India via Jammu. As stated Union Railway Minister Piyush Goyal, the entire KRP project is supposed to be completed by August, 2022. With the Indian railways making a rapid transition to clean fuel for propulsion, the entire route will be electrified with 25kV AC power lines. The Bilaspur-Leh line is another high elevation all-weather broad-gauge railway route that is planned to connect Bilaspur in Himachal Pradesh to Leh in Ladakh. The total expected length of this line is 498 km and it would become the highest railway track in the world (overtaking the current record of the

A train rounding a curve near Qazigund railway station

AMARESHWARA SAINADH

transport f c li b u p e th so To relieve tween the two citiemmu system be d Srinagar, the Ja Jammu anir government has il a & Kashm two light metro r uary d r e b e m nF confir the state o in ts c je o r p 6, 2020

Qinghai-Tibet Railway of China) once the project is completed. After JammuBaramulla line in Kashmir, the BilaspurLeh track will be the most challenging project in the history of Indian Railways due to high mountains, a large number of tunnels, bridges and severe cold weather conditions. The Northern Railways is in the process of acquiring land for setting up a camp office in Leh for overseeing this ambitious project. Once this line is completed, Leh will be directly connected to Himachal Pradesh and the rest of India by rail.

Srinagar and Jammu metro rail projects

To relieve the public transport system between the two cities of Jammu

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and Srinagar, the Jammu & Kashmir government has confirmed two light metro rail projects in the state on February 6, 2020. It has been considered that an efficient local public transport system including Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS) is important for inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth. To complete this target, elevated Light Rail Systems have been conceived for Srinagar and Jammu cities to provide superior mobility in terms of secured, credible, cost-effective, useful and sustainable public transport systems. The elevated light metro rail system will not only facilitate easy and quick movement of people, but will also have a positive impact on the economy and quality of life in these two cities. The Light Rail Transit System in Jammu will have one corridor from Bantalab to Bari Brahmana with an entire length of 23 km. The metro rail system in Srinagar will have two corridors, the first one will be from Indira Nagar to HMT Junction and the second will be from Usmanabad to Hazuri Bagh, with a total route length of 25 km. The investment cost of the project at current prices including price of land and taxes are supposed to be `4,825 crore for Jammu Light Metro and `5,734 crore for Srinagar Light Metro. The Railway consultancy firm- RITES has recently submitted the final Detailed Project Reports (DPRs) to the Housing

SPOTLIGHT

and Urban Development Department (HUDD) for both the cities. The administrative council has authorised HUDD to submit both DPRs to the union government for appraisal and funding including external funding. As per the two DPRs, the projects have a deadline of four years and is supposed to be completed by December 2024. The expected ridership of the Jammu and Srinagar metro rail has been estimated to be 2.6 lakh by 2024 which is supposed to increase up to 5.42 lakh by 2044 in each city. After receiving approval from the centre, the HUDD will notify the government lands within 500 meters on each side of the corridor and reserve the equivalent for development purposes. Works on the two projects are expected to start by December, 2020.

A happy Kashmiri woman with her child

Banihal-Qazigund Road Tunnel is an 8.5 km road tunnel at an elevation of 1790 meters above the sea level in the Pir Panjal range. It connects Banihal with Qazigund. It is a double tube tunnel consisting of two parallel tunnels one for each direction of travel. Each tunnel is 7 metres wide and has two lanes of road. The two tunnels are interconnected by a passage every 500 metres for maintenance and emergency evacuation. The tunnel will have forced ventilation for extracting smoke and stale air and infusing fresh air. It will have state of the art monitoring and control systems for security. The existing road tunnel below the Banihal pass (Jawahar tunnel), has been a bottleneck on the road due to its elevation of 2194 metres and limited traffic capacity. The new tunnel's average elevation at 1790 metres is 400 metres lower than the existing Jawahar tunnel's elevation, which would make it less prone to avalanches. When completed, the tunnel would reduce the road distance between Banihal and Qazigund by 16 km. The project is slated to be completed by March, 2021 and it will be the second tunnel to be opened for traffic in recent years, after the inauguration of Dr Syama Prasad Mukherjee tunnel in April, 2017. The country’s national security planners are pushing hard to complete an all-weather strategic route to Ladakh that will link Darcha in Himachal Pradesh to Nimu via Padum in Kargil’s Zanskar valley. Nimu is 35 km from Leh town and headquarters of XIV Corps responsible for the defence of East Ladakh and Siachen Glacier. This will be the first allweather route to Ladakh which is already connected by two other routes; the first

MIKE PRINCE

Roads, tunnels and bridges

via Zoji La in Jammu and Kashmir and the second, via Himachal’s ManaliUpshi-Leh axis. The 9.02 km Atal tunnel at Rohtang La, which will reduce the distance between Manali and Leh by 46 km, is also set to become operational by the end of September, 2020. The need to build the third axis was felt as tunnelling would be required under four more high mountain passes on the existing ManaliLeh route if the road has to be kept open through the year. The Atal tunnel at Rohtang La on this route has been built at an altitude of 10,171 feet and is already the world’s longest at this altitude. The four passes that would require tunnels on the existing Manali-Leh route are at higher altitudes: Baralacha La (16,500 feet), Nakee La (15,547 feet), Lachung La (16,616 feet), and Tanglang La (17,480 feet). These passes are only open for traffic between mid-May and midNovember and covered with deep snow remaining part of the year. However, the Darcha-Padum-Nimu route requires only a single 4.5 km tunnel through the 16,570 feet Shingo La between Darcha and Padum to ensure that the road is closed only for two months in winter. Darcha is 147 km from Manali and lies on the highway to Leh after Jispa and Keylong across Rohtang La. The distance between Darcha and Padum is about

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148 km with the Zanskar sub-divisional town connected to Kargil via a 230-km long single lane road. Work is already on to build the Darcha-Padum road with another 260 km road work in progress between Padum and Nimu. The new road will meet the aspirations of the people of Ladakh. On July 9, 2020, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh unveiled six crucial bridges in Jammu and Kashmir which are located in sensitive areas near the international border and Line of Control (LoC). Two bridges on the Tarnah Nallah in Kathua District and four bridges which are located on Akhnoor-Pallanwala road in Akhnoor/Jammu district have spans ranging from 30 to 300 metres. These structures have been constructed at a total cost of `43 crores. Constructed by Project Sampark of the BRO, these will help in the movement of the Indian armed forces in the border areas which is strategically very important for the nation, and will also help in the economic growth of the remote border regions.

Revolutionising power supply

According to Ministry of Power’s data, 33 substations and 745 new distribution terminals have been built under union government schemes in the last one year since the Union Territory of Jammu and

SPOTLIGHT

Revitalising IT and real estate

The information technology (IT) industry is one of the pillars on which the new union territory of Jammu and Kashmir is banking on for employment generation and industrialisation. Two IT parks- one each in Srinagar and in Jammu spread over a gross area of 5 lakh square feet will be ready by 2021. The IT parks are being developed in cluster mode, will have secure infrastructure and optical fibre connectivity. These parks will be connected with nearby airports. In addition to the IT policy, the state administration has also released real estate policy which said that land banks created by the government will be disbursed to private developers through a transparent bidding process. The union home ministry has clarified that no private land will be acquired for infrastructure projects.

Giving wings to civil aviation

As many as 11 airports in the two newly formed union territories including the ones in Fukche and Chushul, are being expanded. These two airports are currently used as Advanced Landing

A Cham dance being organised during the Dosmoche festival at Leh Palace in the Union Territory of Ladakh

SUMITA ROY DUTTA

Kashmir has been created. Besides this, 48 km of feeder lines were separated, 2020 km of distribution lines and 356 km of aerial bunched/underground cables were laid to cut transmission losses and improve supply during this period to ensure 24X7 uninterrupted power supply. More than 3,00,000 households have also been given access to electricity for the first time in 70 years. As a matter of pride, Keran and Mundian villages near the LoC were connected with the national electricity grid 73 years after India’s independence. The most spine-chilling makeover is the installation of energy-efficient LED streetlights under Street Lighting National Programme, similar to what is seen elsewhere in the country. Energy Efficiency Services Ltd (EESL) under the power ministry, has installed some 1.2 lakh LED streetlights, split almost equally between Jammu and Srinagar, under an agreement with Jammu and Kashmir power and urban development departments. This single initiative alone has saved `57 crore in power bills for municipalities, leaving more funds for health and sanitation. The LED scheme is also estimated to have resulted in energy saving of 81 million units, avoided peak demand of 13.63 megawatts and reduced Carbon Dioxide emissions of 56,345 tonnes.

nt is governme of measures n io n u e h T w ting a sle tal implemen rious developmen lobal a g through v and an upcoming g initiatives mmit for ensurin in the u s s s s e s r e busin omic prog n o c e ’s ir Kashm long run

Grounds (ALG) by the Indian military for airlifting troops and supplies to IndiaChina border. In fact, the Chushul ALG was used to land tanks during the 1965 war. In addition to this, military airports along India-Pakistan border like Poonch, Rajouri, Gurez, etc. are also being spruced up and opened up for civilian use. Srinagar’s Sheikh ul-Alam International Airport along with Jammu Airport have been equipped with night landing facilities which is a huge milestone towards enabling 24X7 domestic as well and international flight services to the newly formed union territory.

Preparations for Global Investors’ Summit

Ahead of a planned Global Investors’

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Summit, the government of J&K organised a first-of-its-kind pre-summit investors’ meeting in January, 2020 in New Delhi. It showcased the policy and regulatory environment in the union territory and the huge investment opportunities available in 14 sectors aimed at boosting manufacturing and the creation of jobs. The success of the meeting can be judged by the fact that 168 memorandums of understanding worth $1.8 billion, were signed at the drop of a hat. The maiden edition of Jammu and Kashmir Global Investors’ Summit can be held as early as 2021.

Infrastructure development

projects

and

urban

To boost the infrastructure in Jammu and Kashmir, more than 500 projects worth in excess of $80 million have been completed, and more than 2000 projects worth nearly $800 million have been approved. Bottlenecks that have been delaying projects in a number of sectors have been removed and many of those projects are now nearing completion. Jammu and Srinagar are now being developed as modern, sustainable smart cities, in which 190 projects worth more than $900 million are planned. A first-ever housing, slum development, rehabilitation and township policy has been approved, under which the construction of 2,00,000 houses is planned.

PERSPECTIVE

A BSF trooper maintaining tight vigil on the IndiaPakistan international border BSF

FORFEITING NATIONAL SECURITY FOR TURF Inter-organisational cooperation and camaraderie is a fallacy which has been propagated for long, laments PANKAJ BHAGWATI “Men will always be haunted by the vastness of eternity’ fretting how their actions would echo across the centuries. Will they be known for the greatness they achieved or by the blunders they committed?” ‘The Iliad’ by Homer

he defeat of 1962 is a psychological watershed in the history of our independent nation. Even today the progeny of VK Menon, the infamous defence minister, avoid in public familial linkages with his persona as do those of General Kaul (the Eastern Army Commander) or Gen

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Thapar (the Chief of Army Staff) who decided to go on a foreign holiday just prior to the Chinese invasion. But rather than blame a few, often calamities are manifested through the cascading effects of numerous blunders that have escaped rectification, courtesy the silence of stakeholders. This article is an attempt

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to bring into limelight one such blunder at the national level which under the blanket of turf is essentially leading to divergence of security alignment and dissipation of our resources.

A bedlam of agencies

India has a myriad of armed entities entrusted with a plethora of tasks which can broadly be classified as policing to maintain law and order, border management and territorial defence. It has the armed forces (army, air force, navy) to protect the nation from external aggression and internal disorders. Then there are Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), who have been given the mandate of maintaining law and order and border management. We have the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), the Railway Protection Force (RPF) in whose gambit falls the task of law and order, and safeguarding infrastructure. The National Security Guard (NSG) whose function is to carry out counterterrorist operations and VIP security is also a CAPF. Further, we have the border management agencies of Border Security Force (BSF), the Indo-Tibetian Border Police (ITBP) and the Shashastra Seema Bal (SSB). Assam Rifles (whose task also involves policing the borders of North Eastern States) is a paramilitary force under the control of the Indian Army, but which is increasingly being mentioned as a CAPF in various literatures emanating out of New Delhi. The Indian Coast Guard whose task is primarily policing of the maritime boundaries has surprisingly been classified as an armed force parallel with the navy. Each of these parallel organisations function adiabatically with their independent headquarters, training infrastructure, intelligence gathering agencies, communication apparatus, pay and pension disbursing agencies, financial departments, procurement agencies, etc.

The Problem Geographical and task overlap

The term national security with its nebulous scope covers an entire range of activities ranging from overt external threats to internal disturbances. In today’s world of unrestricted and across the spectrum warfare, security of the nation is as vulnerable to activities within its borders as it is to those

1962 saw the Indian military's darkest hour

r der v e t he b o B or d e r a h e w , r Furthe ent agencies of ndomanagemForce (BSF), the I P) Security Border Police (ITBBal Tibetian hashastra Seema a nd t he S (SSB)

outside. It is therefore not surprising that within India, we find different agencies tasked by the government within the same geographical space to fight common or different threats. Thus the Indian Army battles counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir, while also defending the border. Within the same geographical space, the BSF, the ITBP, the CRPF, the state police force and a host of intelligence agencies also fight the same battle. Compartmentalised within their organisational structures and reporting channels, the environment can best be described by the term ‘Bugger's-Muddle’. It is simply not possible to have a seamless flow of intelligence

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and execute joint operations in a streamlined manner owing to rigid structures, different operating procedures, non-compatible communications, different training and motivational standards and above all ‘Turf’. Inter-organisational cooperation and camaraderie is a fallacy which has been propagated for long. This situation is replicated in the North-Eastern states of India. Unsurprisingly, responses to threats to national security are stymied, incoherent and uncoordinated, lack synergy and above all wasteful in maneffort and economy.

Hierarchical handicap to responses

Manifestation of threats onto our national sovereignty would broadly emanate across the domains of air, maritime or land. The response to an aerial threat is most streamlined in India with the Air Force as the mother agency in-charge of our airspace. A response to maritime threats would face a time-delay due to the simple fact that two parallel agencies (rather than a single one), the Navy and the Coast Guard are both responsible, enhanced by the impossibility of maintaining clear jurisdictional separation while responding to it. Responses to land-based threats are appallingly disjointed due to geographic and jurisdictional overlap of a multitude of agencies. It is not

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J&K sees a wide body of troops operating, with coordination being a huge concern

coincidental that incidences of Pathankot and Pulwama occurred. The worrisome aspect is that we continue to not learn from our mistakes, diverting our attention and efforts towards other aspects rather than address the key problem- hierarchy of command.

Impending disaster in war

The hamstrung responses to threats during peace-time will magnify disastrously in war. It will be surprising to learn that the stated mandates of every paramilitary body or CAPF with the exception of Assam Rifles and the Rashtriya Rifles (both of which are under operational control of the Army) have no enunciation in War. The BSF which until the last war had functioned under the operational control with the Indian Army and had aligned and intimately trained with it, is today a parallel organisation with no cross-pollination of men or officers. Surprisingly today, the task of defending the border by occupying defensive positions in concert with the army finds no mention in its mandate. This alarming omission in task is resonated by the other border management agencies of ITBP and the SSB. This has resulted in these agencies relegating their capabilities

consequences.

restricted n u f o ld r wo In todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s s the spectrum ion t s and acro security of the na s warfare, erable to activitie is as vuln borders as it is to within its ide s those out

to merely policing and deprived them of the capability to augment the army in defending the border during war and freeing it to undertake offensive actions. Being officered purely by the Indian Police Service (IPS) who do not have the domain knowledge of warfare or the nuances of fighting against a uniformed adversary, the ITBP or the SSB have simply not optimised their potential. The present ongoing debate of reorganising the Assam Rifles on the same lines of the ITBP will be another major blunder with ruinous

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What must be done The German example

The effects of turf and parallel organisations can best be summarised by invoking the example of Germany during the Second World War. Despite the fact that Germany had finally overcome its combat regeneration capabilities in 1944, its resources were divided amongst numerous organisations such as the Volkssturm, SS Waffen, the LuftWaffe (which also maintained a ground army), the Sturmabteilung, Hitler Youth, etc which frittered away its advantage. Parallel organisations with independent command hierarchies when entrusted similar tasks only create dissonance. Hemmed in by a belligerent Pakistan and an aggressive China we in India are emulating the follies of Germany.

Where did we err?

Our unique problem with two belligerent neighbours demands a large standing force. On the West we face the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sixth largest military force and on the East the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest. Manpower requirements for a force commensurate to the task in hand are

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The CAPF's being officered by IPS officers is a major point of contention

economically prohibitive. However, manpower intensive force cannot be wished away as territorial sanctity has to be ensured. Therefore, we should have economised and optimised our security forces in such a manner that CAPFs are able to complement the tasks of the armed forces and manpower can be sidestepped from one organisation to the other when necessity demands. Instead of creating security organisations with integrated structures, we created parallel organisations. Every organisation must have a primary and a secondary role. While the secondary role of the army is in the realms of policing, the secondary role of CAPFs should have been to assist the armed forces in war. The omission of enunciating war-time roles has curtailed the scope of individual training in police organisations and denied the employment of this vital resource in war.

What can we do?

One method to rectify this miscalculation is to revise our concept of employment of manpower of CAPFs and enhancing their manpower potential enabling them to undertake

ses to ly, respon rity g n i s i r p r s ecu Unsu national rent and to s t a e r h t d , i nc o he s y ne r g y e i m y t s e k ar nated, lac uncoordi e all wasteful in a n d a b o v r t a n d e c o n o my man-effo

a variety of tasks within the security domain. Even at the individual level, the ability to swap manpower in between the CAPFs and the armed forces would enable a major upgrade in our capability of fighting a two-front war. In times of war, the CAPFs could become immediate feeder agencies supplying trained manpower to the armed forces (plugging the gestation gap between recruitment and training of fresh soldiers), and also retain the capacity to relieve the Indian Army from low intensity areas. The idea is

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to view every man in uniform bearing arms as an asset empowered and capable of effectively participating in all security related tasks?

Cross-pollination

At the lowest level, the capability of an individual is incumbent primarily on his aptitude, the training he receives and leadership he follows. Therefore, given the training and leadership, every constable in a CAPF can become a soldier and every soldier can also carry out policing. Though it may not be practical or economical to train every individual within the CAPFs as a soldier, we seem to have closed a very important avenue to enhance his potency i.e. cross-pollination with the army. In order to optimise our manpower and streamline our effort at combating threats to national security we must carry out the following reforms:(a) Mandatory tenures: If every officer and individual in every security agency is mandated to serve for one or two tenures with the army, he will not only develop deep linkages with it, but also by virtue of his posting become trained and more empowered in prosecuting war related tasks in addition to that of

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CAPF's should be augmented into war-fighting roles when required

his domain. Similarly, formalising compulsory cross-pollination of all officers and men of the army into these sister agencies will broaden their horizons in analysing and performing tasks related to civil administration and policing. Subsequently, soldiers of the army after completion of their terms of service can sidestep automatically into the CAPFs, retaining their currency to act as reservists and populating vacancies within these organisations. If religiously ensured, then within the span of a decade, all individuals in uniform (army and CAPF) would have valuable exposure, capable of performing all security related tasks in both peace and war. (b) Command hierarchy: During peacetime, a unified HQ, staffed by Army and CAPF personnel and officers, under an appointed commander (based on seniority of operational service) should have operational

jurisdiction. Supported by a unified intelligence apparatus, such a HQ will better be able to respond to internal threats. During war, the army HQs will take precedence and have under its command the resources of other services to augment its effort. Mandates for War should therefore be clearly enunciated for CAPFs and PMFs. (c) Intelligence infrastructure: The present diversion of intelligence effort by having multiple service specific intelligence agencies should be abandoned and a unified intelligence branch capable of feeding both internal and external intelligence in war and peace, should be established. This intelligence amalgam should infact be christened into a separate arm.

What will we achieve?

The above minor changes will enable

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us to optimise our resources in terms of security. It will enable us to majorly upgrade our capabilities and streamline security responses by affording the following spin-offs:(a) Manpower: During war, the army is always short on manpower. Crosspollination with and by the army will provide CAPFs with a strong skeletal structure upgrading their capabilities during war. The availability of 186 battalions of BSF, 56 of ITBP, 41 of SSB & 246 of CRPF (529 battalions in total), will majorly free up the army from tasks such as defence of low-priority areas, rear area security, etc., thus substantially increasing manpower available for offensive tasks. (b) Leadership base: Exposure gained through cross-pollination by officers of army, BSF and IPS will hugely optimise mid-level leadership of all security agencies empowering and enabling them to handle varied portfolios across the spectrum in both peace and war. During peace-time, this can also iron out issues related to cadre management and lateral absorption. (c) Lateral absorption: Formalisation of this idea will also open doors for lateral absorption not only for army personnel (after completion of their terms with the army), but also allow for sidestepping of officers and men of other services who discover greater aptitude for army-related tasks. This will enable retention of best talent pools for respective portfolios. (d) Opportunities and allowances: Officers and personnel posted to an organisation will have the same opportunities and receive the same salaries and allowances as their counterparts in that organisation by virtue of location and commonality of threats they face. This will not only remove grounds for inter-service animosity but also promote camaraderie through greater interactions and alignment to cause. (e) Orientation training: Orientation and pre-induction training prior to cross-pollination can be carried out for a few weeks in training establishment of respective services designed in such a manner that knowledge/training-voids specific to the service are covered (on similar lines as Rashtriya Rifles).

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NSA Ajit Doval during an inspection amidst the Delhi riots

Stumbling blocks

However logical synergising multitude of agencies towards national security may appear, such ideas in our nation often get buried under perceived notions of impracticality, difficulty in implementation, and issues of turf. Undoubtedly, there will be a great deal of rehashing and restructuring clubbed with the methodology of implementation of the idea; but some turmoil is always associated with the dynamism of reform. The largest and most potent threat to any transformation, is without debate, the officer community, who restricted by traditional, compartmentalised thought-process are characterised behaviourally by a substantial resistance to exit comfort zones, also possess an amazing propensity to disrupt and kill even the most progressive and logical reform despite it being in the national interest. The next issue is definitely turf which is a bastion that can only be breached by strong directives from the highest levels of policy making.

Conclusion

1Vietnam Border Defence Guards are

ats a s ed t h r e b d n la ue s to Response ingly disjointed d ional ll t are appa phic and jurisdic to geogra f a multitude of overlap o So, incidences of cur c agencies. t and Pulwama o o k Pathan

a branch of the Vietnamese People’s Army. The Tahan Phran which is the border patrolling force of Thailand is an auxiliary of the Royal Thai Army. The Border Defence Regiment of China works under operational control of the Central Military Commission. Nearly every nation in the world has a strong integration at the execution level between its regular armed Forces and other security agencies. In 1986, the United States of

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America passed the Goldwater-Nichols act that laid the path for the defence reorganisation. We in India have yet to have that moment despite debacles such as 1962. Contrary to all logic and global precedence we continue to move towards parallel adiabatic structures ruled by turf sentiments, frittering away our national rsources and endangering national security. In the 18th century prior to Nadir Shah’s invasion, the Dutch representative to the Mughal Court noted that- “The Mughal army was so large and finances so abundant that they could have conquered the whole known world; if only they had been trained in European Standards.” It was never a question of availability of resources. It was always the resistance to change and adapt which has been our perpetual malady. This article was written for the Army War College Journal and then shared by the think-tank “Mission Victory India” and now reprinted in this journal with permission. The author during his service in the Indian Army had served in counter-insurgency operations both in Jammu & Kashmir and North-East India

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HIT TO KILL: THE ARTILLERY SAGA At a time when India is increasingly facing the threat of a two-front war on its borders, it will be very apt to conclude that the Indian Army’s artillery modernisation drive requires a tremendous thrust from the government, argues AMARTYA SINHA

155mm X 45 calibre ‘Dhanush’ artillery howitzer during field-firing trials

MOD

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FOCUS

n October 20, 2019, the Indian Army launched massive artillery strikes across the Line of Control in Kashmir. The targets, located 40-50 km deep inside Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), consisted of four major terrorist camps along with Pakistani fire support bases and bunkers. The 155mm shells fired from Bofors Haubits FH-77and Dhanush howitzers scored deadly and accurate hits on the pre-designated high-value targets. The mobilisation of 155mm heavy artillery guns along with very highcalibre 214mm Pinaka and 300mm BM30 Smerch multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRL) on the border carried a clear message to Islamabad that India was ready to up the ante at a very short notice, in case of further provocations. While medium machinegun engagements, mortar bombardment and usage of ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) for strafing border posts and bunkers have been quite frequent since the NDA-2 government took over in 2014, large cross-border artillery exchanges were a rarity since the end of the 1971 India-Pakistan war. But with tremendous improvements in navigation and guidance systems of artillery shells and missiles in the last two decades, India has now developed the capability to hit pre-designated targets with tremendous precision thus minimising civilian deaths on the other side of the fence. The occasional usages of 155mm shells have proved to be very helpful in suppressing enemy fire and in taking out hardened targets entrenched deep underground which are otherwise difficult to be engaged with light mortars and low-calibre field artillery cannons. The importance of a large and well-equipped artillery force was proved during the 1999 Kargil war when guided and unguided shells were used to hit Pakistani intruder positions on mountaintops from BLOS (Beyond Line of Sight) ranges. While the Indian Army has one of the largest artillery forces in the world, the capability enhancement and technological upgradation remains an ongoing process.

155mm artillery weapons

The history of the 155mm guns goes back to 1986 when the deal for 410 Bofors Haubits FH-77 guns was clinched with Sweden. With all the guns delivered by 1991, Indian Army acquired the much-needed firepower which it had

HEMANT RAWAT

A Bofors 155mm artillery cannon of the Indian Army

tion in naviga as ts n e m e v h ro With imp nce systems, Indiay a it id il and gu loped the capab now deve designated targets us to hit pre- endous precision thon the with trem g civilian deaths minimisin of the fence other side

been craving for since the conclusion of the India-Pakistan war in 1971. The FH-77 has a Volvo B-20 auxiliary power unit (APU) which makes it suitable for easier shoot and scoot operations along with all-terrain mobility. But it requires a towing-vehicle for long-distance transportation and mobilisation. The rate of fire was, at the time, exceptionally high for a 155 mm howitzer. The gun, equipped with a 39mm barrel and an interrupted screw breech, could fire 4 rounds in 9 seconds, or 6 rounds in 25 seconds. In a sustained firing role, it

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could fire 6 rounds every two minutes for a duration of 20 minutes. The Howitzer's APU can be started and controlled by the driver of the towing vehicle to give an extra boost during off-road driving. The maximum towing speed is 70 km an hour which makes it suitable for highway driving as well as off-road deployment. The engine is connected to three hydraulic pumps, of which two are linked to the wheels and one is used for a traverse, elevation, ramming and ammunition crane. The fuel tank can hold 40 litres of diesel, with two extra 20 litre jerry cans as reserve in front of the gun layer's position. The FH77 is manoeuvred by the gun layer, controlling the torque of the two main wheels through a joystick. The gun’s speed is regulated by changing the APU's RPM. The howitzer is deployed by spreading the trail legs, raising the castor wheels and driving the howitzer in reverse to anchor the recoil spades. The weapon uses standard NATO 155mm ammunition with bagged drive charges. It is capable of using basebleed ammunition as well as ‘Bofors 155 Bonus’ shells. It can also fire ‘M982 Excalibur’ satellite-guided artillery bombs along with ‘2K25 Krasnopol’ laser-guided shells.

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USMC

United States Marine gunners test-firing an M-777 howitzer

While the Indian Army has been operating Bofors FH-77s since the last three decades, the Indian Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) has been struggling all these years for developing a cutting-edge indigenous product as an alternative. Massive investments in high-end metallurgy and precisionengineering technologies finally started bearing fruits. After many years of being unable to acquire or import foreign artillery guns due to Bofors-related corruption charges, OFB developed the Dhanush gun. In trials, it came out better by 20 to 25 percent than the Bofors in parameters like range, accuracy, consistency, low and high angle of fire, along with shoot-and-scoot ability. Barring a failed trial in July, 2016 when a shell hit the muzzle brake, all tests of the game changing weapon system has been highly successful with commendable performance. The all-weather trials were conducted by firing about 5000 shells in the desert regions and icy glaciers of the Himalayas without any incident. Dhanush passed its final development trials in June, 2018 and the approval for serial production came in February, 2019. The first six guns were formally handed over to the Indian Army in April 8, 2019. As of December, 2019,

d to ave prove ssing h s ll e h s 155mm elpful in suppre t be ver y h e and in taking ou d deep enemy fir targets entrenche er wise hardened und which are oth light undergro be engaged with nons difficult to nd low-calibre can mortars a

114 Dhanush cannons are on order. Moreover, with most of the Bofors guns nearing the end of their operational life, a decision has been made to eventually replace all 410 FH-77 cannons with the indigenously developed Dhanush guns. Meanwhile, a decision was made to run a parallel indigenous towed-artillery gun project alongside Dhanush. The Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS) was envisaged by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) for indigenously developing a

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155mm/ 52 calibre towed-howitzer. The project was started in 2013 by DRDO to replace older guns in service in the Indian Army with a modern 155mm artillery gun. The Armament Research and Development Establishment (ARDE) partnered with Kalyani Group, Tata Power and Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) for this purpose. The gun consists of a barrel, breech mechanism, muzzle brake and recoil mechanism to fire 155 mm calibre ammunitions with a firing range of up to 40 km. It has an all-electric drive to ensure reliability and minimum maintenance over a long period of time. It also has advanced features like high mobility, quick deployability, auxiliary power mode, advanced communication system, automatic command and control system with night capability in direct fire mode. The gun is a couple of tonnes lighter than other weapons in the same category and is designed to provide better accuracy and range. It is capable of firing five successive rounds in short duration. ATAGS is also compatible with ACCCS-Shakti command and control network of the Indian Army. With the project lingering for more than six years, the delay has mainly been attributed to realisation

PIB

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K-9 Vajra artillery units of the Indian Army participating at the 2019 Republic Day Parade in New Delhi

of ordnance and recoil system and supply issue with manufacturing of sub-systems. In August 2018, Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved the procurement of 150 ATAGS with an estimated cost of Rs. 3364.78 crores. During trials in 2017, ATAGS broke the world record for 155mm gun by firing the round up to a distance of 47.2 km. As of December, 2019, the cannon has successfully completed all trials and the manufacturing of the first batch of 40 guns is set to start soon. At a time when India is facing increasing geopolitical threats on the North-Eastern front, it is quite evident that the county should take all necessary measures for deploying heavy artillery over the Himalayas. But the pathetic condition of some of the roads in North Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh makes it very difficult to mobilise heavy 155mm cannons near the LAC (Line of Actual Control). A solution was found by clinching a deal for acquiring 145 M-777 ultra-light howitzers from the United States in 2016. The M-777 has a mass of around 4200 kg which makes it suitable for airlifting onboard heavy-lift capable Mil Mi-26 and the newly acquired Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters.

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These weapon systems can easily be positioned on remote artillery bases in high-altitude regions and can redirect highly accurate hits on Chinese military positions in Tibet. The M777 uses a digital fire-control system to provide navigation, pointing and self-location, allowing it to be put into action quickly. The Digital Fire Control System is powered by a unique new design of rotary hybrid-electric engine designed and manufactured by Liquid Piston. The weapon can be combined with the M982

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Excalibur GPS-guided shells, which allows accurate fire at a range of up to 40 km. This almost doubles the area covered by a single battery to about 1250 square km. The Indian Army received its first shipment comprising two M-777 howitzers in May 2017. The brand-new weapons were used in the Himvijay exercise in Arunachal Pradesh which involved the newly raised Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs). A total of seven artillery regiments are planned, each of 18 guns. The first regiment is planned to be raised by end-2020 with 15 guns supplied by BAE systems and three guns supplied by Mahindra Defence Systems Limited. In addition to the ultralight howitzers, a decision was also made to acquire 100 units of 155mm K-9 Vajra self-propelled howitzers based on tracked mobile platforms. A tracked system makes the weapon suitable for easier off-roading and quicker shoot and scoot capability in difficult terrain. K9, developed by Hanwha Techwin, is a South Korean system of an all-welded steel armour construction which is rated to withstand 14.5 mm armour piercing munition (APM) rounds,152 mm shell fragments and anti-personnel

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Gun, more than 700 units of 105mm L-118 towed light gun, 80 units of FV433 Abbot SPG 105mm tracked selfpropelled artillery, and 110 units of 2S1 Gvozdika 122mm calibre tracked selfpropelled artillery. 180 M-46 cannons are being upgraded to 155mm standard by Soltam Systems of Israel while 300 are being upgraded by the Ordnance Factory Board. With the D-30s reaching the end of their life-cycle, a decision has been made to replace all 550 units with M-46s. Meanwhile, the entire fleet of 1700 Indian Field Guns are being upgraded with digital fire control systems and inertial navigation systems for extending the range of shells up to 30 km with bleed base, whereas the 700 light guns are also being upgraded. All 80 FV-433 Abbot SPGs and 2S1 Gvozdikas will eventually be replaced by the K-9 Vajras. The sub155mm class guns play a pivotal role in shorter range and direct line of sight (DLOS) artillery engagements against the enemy.

AMARTYA SINHA

Multi-barrel rocket launchers

A Bharat-52 towed artillery howitzer indigenously manufactured by Bharat Forge, a subsidiary of Kalyani Group

mines. The main armament consists of a 155 mm/52 calibre ordnance with a maximum firing range of 40 km. The K307 BB-HE projectile propelled by the K676 top charge has a muzzle velocity of 928 metres a second. State-of-theart mobility subsystems include a 1000 horsepower engine with potential for growth and hydropneumatic suspension unit. It offers greater mobility, longer range, higher rate of fire, and increased battlefield survivability as it can quickly be brought into action, open fire, and come out of action. K-9 is less likely to be engaged by counter-battery fire. Larsen and Toubro is in the process of manufacturing this game changing weapon system in India under full technology-transfer from South Korea.

The deal also has the provision of acquiring 50 additional K-9s in the near future. So, 150 such cannons may be eventually fielded over the coming years.

Sub-155mm field gun systems

With the 155mm guns designed for longrange artillery engagements, Indian Army also possesses an ageing inventory of sub-155mm cannons. While large parts of the vintage inventory are being replaced with cutting-edge weapons, some of these guns are being upgraded for boosting firepower in the tacticallevel battlefield. The Indian Army has an active arsenal of 900 units of 130mm towed artillery field gun- M-1954 (M-46), 550 units of 122mm howitzer- 2A18 (D30), 1700 units of 105mm Indian Field

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Multi-barrel rocket launcher systems play a key role in destroying high-value targets spread over large areas. A barrage of artillery rockets can flatten an entire base/ garrison within minutes with intensely concentrated bombardment. Depending on the calibre of ammo, the propelled-shells cannot just demolish entire BUAs (Built-up Areas), but can also take out deeply entrenched underground facilities including bunkers, ammunition storage facilities and fuel-dumps. Such rockets can at times penetrate the earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s surface up to dozens of metres and are a nightmare for the enemy. At present, the Indian Army has a significant fleet of more than 150 units of BM-21 Grad launchers, 54 units of Pinaka launchers and 62 units of BM30 Smerch launchers. The BM-21 is a 122mm truckmounted multiple rocket launching system of Soviet origin which has been in active service with the Indian Army since the 1970s. The weapon system played a very important role during the final assault on Tiger Hill during the Kargil War in 1999.The launch vehicle consists of a Ural-375D six-by-six truck chassis fitted with a bank of 40 launch tubes arranged in a rectangular shape that can be turned away from the unprotected cab. The vehicle is powered by a watercooled V-8 180 horsepower gasoline engine, has a maximum road speed of

VITALY KUZMIN

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A BM-30 Smerch multi-barrel rocket launcher (MBRL)

75 km an hour and mobility range of up to 750 km. Each 2.87metre rocket is slowly spun by rifling in its tube as it exits, which along with its primary fin-stabilisation keeps it on course. Rockets armed with high explosivefragmentation, incendiary, or chemical warheads can be fired 20 km away. Newer high explosive and cargo (used to deliver anti-personnel or anti-tank mines) rockets have a range of 30 km and above. Each warhead weighs around 20 kg, depending on the type. The Pinaka is a complete MBRL system with each Pinaka battery consisting of six launcher vehicles, each with 12 rockets; six loaderreplenishment vehicles; three replenishment vehicles; two Command Post vehicle (one of which is a standby) with a Fire Control computer, and the DIGICORA MET radar. A battery of six launchers can neutralise an area of 1,000 metres × 800 metres. The Indian Army generally deploys a battery that has a total of 72 rockets. All the 72 rockets can be fired in 44 seconds, taking out an area of one square km. Each launcher can fire in a different direction too. The system has the flexibility to fire all the rockets in one go or only a few, as per operational requirement. This is made possible with a fire control computer. There is a

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command post linking together all the six launchers in a battery. Each launcher has an individual computer, which enables it to function autonomously in case it gets separated from the other five vehicles in a war. Having a maximum range of up to 75 km, the Mark-2 version of Pinaka can wipe out targets as far as Lahore and Sialkot, when positioned near the India-Pakistan border in Punjab. A longer-range version of Pinaka is also in development which will be capable of destroying targets as far as 120 km. All ageing BM-21 systems will be eventually

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replaced by indigenous Pinaka systems over the coming years. The BM-30 Smerch is a Soviet heavyweight multiple rocket launcher. The system is intended to defeat personnel, armoured and soft targets in concentration areas, artillery batteries, command posts and ammunition depots. The Smerch system consists of 9M55 or 9M528 rockets (in containers); BM 9A52-2 launcher vehicle; TZM 9T234-2 transloader with an 850 kg crane and 12 spare rockets; automated fire control equipment in the command post 1K123 ‘Vivary’; PM-2-70 MTO-V maintenance vehicle; 9F819 set of arsenal equipment;9F827 and 9F840 training facilities. The 300mm rockets with a firing range of 70 and 90 km and various warheads have been developed for the Smerch MLRS. The 9A52-2 vehicle with the automated system ensures delivery of fire from an un-surveyed fire position. It facilitates laying of the launch tube cluster with the crew staying in the cabin and without using aiming points. It also ensures autonomous determination of an azimuth of the launch tube cluster’s longitudinal axis. The weapon system also has visual representation of graphical information for the launch tube cluster laying the route of vehicle movement and location

AMARTYA SINHA

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An indigenously developed Kalyani MGS 4X4 (166mm X 39 calibre) artillery gun system

as well as a point of destination and direction of movement on the video terminal. This leads to increase in MLRS survivability owing to reduced time of staying at a fire position and increased comfort for the laying operator, especially in adverse weather conditions and at night. The vehicle also increases independent operation owing to the navigation and survey equipment, which allows it to rapidly change firing positions and move autonomously. The automated system leads to reduction of the combat crew.

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Urge for next-generation precision-guided artillery bombs

In July, 2019, the Indian Army reportedly took a decision to acquire 155mm satellite-guided ‘M982 Excalibur’ artillery rounds for long-range strikes. A decision was made to purchase the cutting-edge ammunition under the emergency procurement procedures (EPP) from the United States. The acquisition case was processed under the emergency powers for procurement of weapon systems and ammunition to be battle-ready during post-Pulwama and post-Uri like situations. As per plans, the forward units of Indian Army deployed along the Line of Control in Kashmir are being

armed with the guided artillery bombs initially. The 155mm M982 Excalibur can be configured in airburst and groundburst configurations for obliterating heavily fortified enemy bunkers located in difficult terrain. The shell is capable of reaching targets located up to 57 km from the launch site and is guided by Global Positioning System (GPS) and Inertial Navigation System (INS). The new generation rounds can be used from M777 ultra-light towed artillery howitzers recently purchased from the United States.

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While the Indian Army has been using guided and unguided artillery projectiles for quite some time, satellite-guided M982 Excalibur rounds are providing a massive boost to the country’s armed forces in the tactical level battlefield. The new generation round uses GPS guidance for improved accuracy and has a CEP (Circular Error Probable) of just 5 metres. The 50km+ range is achieved by using folding glidefins which allow the projectile to glide from the top of a ballistic arc towards the target. The guidance system of the weapon has been developed by Raytheon Missile Systems of the United States whereas the body, base, ballistics and payload have been developed by BAE Systems AB of Sweden. While Excalibur is used to minimise collateral damage, it is also used for hitting targets beyond the range of standard munitions and for precise firing within 150 metres of friendly troops. It proves as a boon when the line of sight (LOS) is limited by difficult terrain. The shell has a multi-function fuse that can be programmed to explode in the air once it hits a hard surface, or after it penetrates a target. An Excalibur projectile can accurately hit an intended target that would require the use of between 10 and 50 unguided artillery rounds, thus improving efficiency. The M982 has witnessed widespread usage by Western coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan in the mid-2000s. On many instances, the guided rounds have scored direct hits on insurgent hideouts during combat operations killing hundreds of Islamic terrorists. The rounds are resistant to GPS jamming technology and uses semi-active laser targeting capability for destroying mobile targets. It also uses millimetre wave (Extremely High Frequency) seeker for fire-andforget operations. The projectile can carry multiple DPICM (Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munition) and SADARM (Project Sense and Destroy Armour) as smart submunitions. The shell can take the Excalibur Shaped Trajectory (EST) thus giving the operator an opportunity to choose the final attack angle in the terminal phase. While the Indian Army has been using 155mm unguided artillery rounds fired from Bofors FaultHaubits FH-77 howitzers made by Swedish Bofors AB since the 1980s, Russian made laserguided Krasnopol shells witnessed widespread usage during the Kargil War in 1999. The cannon-launched, fin-stabilised, base bleed assisted,

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semi-automatic laser-guided ‘9K25 Krasnopol’ rounds were very effective in taking out Pakistani bunkers, mortar positions and machinegun nests positioned on hilltops. While fighting hostile forces, the shells were accurately directed towards the target by using handheld laser-target designators. With each round costing around Rs.15 lakh, more than 2000 Krasnopol bombs were imported from Russia. The rounds were fired from BLOS (Beyond Line of Sight) ranges and were successful in hitting the targets with top-attack pattern. The high-explosive fragmentation warheads in the projectile took out strong-points including hardened cement-concrete walls of hostile bunkers. The 9K25 Krasnopol played a very important role in the war eventually leading to a decisive Indian victory on July 26, 1999. With India enjoying its MDP (Major Defence Partner) status with the United States of America since 2016, the Indian military establishment has got access to almost 99 per cent of the US defence inventory. While the acquisition of M982 Excalibur artillery bombs will be a significant plus for the Indian Army, further enhancement of the Indian inventory with more advanced American made guided munitions will be a significant game-changer. India can opt for more sophisticated rounds like the ‘M712 Copperhead’ 155mm

AMARTYA SINHA

Various artillery shells manufactured by the Indian Ordnance Factory Board (OFB)

e K-9 makes th roading m te s y s A tracked able for easier offVajra suit er shoot and scoot . The and quick in difficult terrainechwin, capability ped by Hanwha T an allK9, develo Korean system of ction is a South el armour constru welded ste

calibre CLGP (cannon-launched laserguided projectile) and the 120mm ‘XM395’ PGMM (precision satelliteguided mortar munition) to counter the Pakistani and Chinese threats in the tactical-level battlefield. The recent signing of the Industrial Security Annex (ISA) agreement with the United States will facilitate the transfer of more advanced defence technologies and equipment and will also lead to formation of joint ventures between Indian private sector giants and American OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers). The much awaited BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation

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September 2020

Agreement) for sharing of geospatial intelligence should also be wrapped up at the earliest which will seal the fate of Indo-US defence partnership for the long run. The potential is enormous and the Indian government should opt for more cutting-edge American technologies and products to replace its current inventory of Soviet-era vintage shells.

Time for more tangible action

At a time when the nation is increasingly facing a multi-front challenge, it will be quite apt to conclude that Indian artillery modernisation needs a massive thrust from the government. Other than the cannons, stocks of artillery ammunition also need to be replenished for future wars which can span across several months or even a year. The future lies in indigenously designing heavy mortars with rapid mobility, whereas the need of the hour is maintaining a large stockpile of high explosive (HE) warhead-enabled ground-launched precision-guided rounds. With the Integrated Battle Groups taking shape under the Cold Start doctrine, and the Mountain Strike Corps being raised for deterring an expansionist neighbour, India needs the requisite firepower for effectively executing short-to-medium range as well as long-range pre-emptive artillery strikes deep inside enemy territory.

DEFBIZ

The F/A-18 Block-III Super Hornet naval fighter aircraft which has been offered to the Indian Navy

BOEING OFFERS F/A-18 BLOCK-III SUPER HORNETS TO INDIAN NAVY

ndia is the front and centre of significant opportunities for Boeing, with India’s defence forces having invested in advanced capabilities for now and the future. Boeing is committed to supporting, as well as helping the modernisation of India’s armed forces. At a virtual pre-Farnborough Air Show-2020 briefing, Boeing discussed its delivery of two F/A-18 Block-III Super Hornet flight test aircraft to the US Navy. Boeing is on schedule to deliver next-generation Block III capabilities to the US Navy in 2021. By 2024, one squadron per carrier air wing will consist of Block-III Super Hornets. The same Block-III aircraft that is being built for the US Navy is also on offer to

the Indian Navy. Thom Breckenridge, Vice President of International Sales for Strike, Surveillance and Mobility, Boeing Defence, Space & Security, said that the F/A-18 for the Indian Navy provides the best capability with the BlockIII configuration, and benefits from the multi-billion dollar investments made towards new technologies in the Super Hornet by the US Navy and international customers. Additionally, the F/A-18 Super Hornet will provide superior value and tremendous opportunity to the Indian Navy. It can enhance collaboration in the areas of naval aviation between the Indian Navy and the US Navy to maintain peace and security throughout the Indo-Pacific

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region. “The F/A-18 Super Hornet will enhance collaboration between the US Navy and Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean region,” said Breckenridge. “Boeing’s plan is to offer ‘By India, For India’ sustainment programme that will build on other successful sustainment programmes that Boeing is executing for the Indian Air Force and Indian Navy today, to sustain, modify and upgrade F/A-18 Super Hornet from India,” Breckenridge added. The Super Hornet will offer the Indian Navy the most economical path to get access to newer technologies. With massive scale of the Super Hornets (more than 700 plus aircrafts in US inventory), the cost of incorporating

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Two F/A-18 Super Hornets of the US Navy after taking-off from an American aircraft carrier

defence customers are starting to signal the need for digital training solutions and believe this is where the training space will move to in the future. That’s why we’re already taking steps to address this future need. There is an increasing need for our performancebased logistics (PBL) solution based on their proven impact to readiness and plan to focus on how we can further enable mission readiness for our customers in this area. Through powerful logistics planning and new technologies, we believe PBLs will continue to evolve and offer one of the best solutions for our customers in the long-run. We’re looking at

Two F/A-18 Super Hornet jets flying in formation

ALL PHOTOS: BOEING

newly developed advanced technologies will be very competitive as the overall cost will be spread across large number of aircrafts. The future collaboration between the two navies can thrive on huge economies of scale which helps in interoperability and improves economics for collaboration on new technologies to meet the emerging threats. The F/A-18 Super Hornet has a very attractive lifecycle cost. It not only has an affordable acquisition cost, but it costs less per flight hour to operate than any other tactical aircraft in production in the US forces inventory, including single engine fighters. This is possible because the fighter is designed for ease of maintainability and offers impressive durability Torbjorn (Turbo) Sjogren, Vice President, International Government and Defence, highlighted trends in government services offerings seen around the world in digital, training, supply chain and maintenance. “Defence platforms and services business are moving towards systembased approaches, utilising digital/ automation to enable our production and services. Think: digitally sustained aircraft. Our defence business in Australia is already adopting many of these innovative practices and our business in the UK is not far behind. That said, we could see our business in India modelling this approach in the future.” Sjogen said. “We’re seeing a strong intersection between training and digital. Our

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optimising our predictive maintenance capabilities through digital tools. This is key and will reduce costs for our customers without jeopardising readiness,” he added As a result of COVID-19 impact, the global defence spending will vary. However, Boeing is committed to improve budget reliability, through performance-based logistics. Boeing is closely working with the Indian government to reduce aircraft lifecycle cost in the long-term by mapping out cost effective sustainment and training models. “We see tremendous opportunity for growth in India’s defence sector and further strengthening our relationship with the Indian armed forces. We are committed to flawless execution on our current programmes and supporting India with their future defence needs,” Sjogren stated. “Also, with India’s recent strides in space exploration and ambitions towards human space flights before August 2022, we see immense opportunity to partner with ISRO in their endeavours. Notwithstanding our six decades of space experience, Boeing is inspired by what India has achieved and its aspirations for the future,” he rounded off. With lessons learned from supporting C-17, P-8I and other military aircraft in India, combined with indepth experience in sustaining aircrafts worldwide, Boeing is in the process of developing sustainment concepts for the Apache and Chinook helicopters. Boeing is seeing a wave of big international opportunities and campaigns in the region and around the planet.

DEFBIZ

RAFAEL OFFERS FIREFLY LOITERING MUNITIONS AND DRONE DOME C-UAS SYSTEMS TO INDIA

ELI HEFETS Regional Director â&#x20AC;&#x201C; India

afael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures and supplies a wide range of high-tech defence systems for air, land, sea space and cyber applications for the Israeli Defence Forces and the defence establishment, as well as for customers around the world. The company offers its customers a diversified array of innovative, multi-disciplinary solutions at the leading edge of global technology, from underwater systems through naval, ground, and air superiority systems to space systems. Rafael's technologies address a vast scope of operational needs with end-to-end, force-multiplying solutions. In 2019, Rafael posted record sales of $2.7 billion, up 3.9 percent from 2018. Our international sales market share is about 60 percent of total sales. On top of that, we have an order backlog of over $7 billion, which covers approximately 2.5 years of sales. Our systems are in service in all 5 continents, ranging from naval to land to air, space and cyber solutions. We are involved in major programmes

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throughout the world, and are competing in major tenders, spanning digitisation of land forces, aircraft upgrades, communication across all forces, air defence, precision munitions, anti-drone systems and many more. Our approach has always been to stay a few steps ahead of the game. Just as we work to constantly develop technologies and systems to give our partners and users the advantage and edge they needs to win the battle, the enemy is also never staying put, continuously looking for new means to challenge us defensively and offensively. This is true for our immediate environment in the Middle East, and it is no less true in other regions around the world. This is why Rafael invests over 8 percent of its revenues each year in R&D, and it's why we have on board the world's best scientists and engineers, as we insist on excellence, out-of-the-box thinking and imagination. Systems such as the Iron Dome, David's Sling, Spice, Trophy, Spike, and many others, are proof of success of this forward-thinking approach which has yielded some of the world's most ground-breaking systems. Rafael's systems and solutions are applicable and can be integrated to a variety of platforms, land, air and sea, with full commonality. Rafael prides itself in being able to create partnerships with international leading aerospace and defence companies overseas. Over 100 offset activities and industrial cooperation have been set up with over 20 countries worldwide. India is an important client for Rafael, given the strategic nature of ties between the Israel and India. For more than 25 years Rafael has also been a strategic partner for India, and as such, has remained fully committed to the Indian Armed Forces technological edge and operational readiness with Rafael's state-of-the-art systems. For example, Rafael has stood by India to supply systems at short notice in various operational contingencies, including air-to-ground, air defence, ATGMs, targeting and reconnaissance pods, SDR communication gear and more.

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Given that approach, Rafael will keep on striving for the induction of its systems in all defence and security forces, platforms and units. Throughout the years, Rafael has continued to supply sophisticated weapon systems to the Indian MoD. Given the current trends in the government, Rafael has been more than willing to create structures to ensure technological transfers to India, which will also serve as an important pillar in propelling India to be part of an global export supply chain. Over the last few years, Rafael has continued to realise its commitment to the Indian market and to its economy. As we speak, our JV is fully involved in leading Rafael in major Make-II programme bids vis-à-vis Indian Armed Forces branches. In fact, we were one of the first global companies to establish local industrial activity in India, and we are implementing India's vision of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ in actuality, no trivial matter considering the scope of our international and domestic competition and the nature of our industry. To date created two joint ventures in diverse fields to support ‘Make in India’ initiatives of the government, including last summer’s inauguration of a state-of-the-art facility at Hardware Technology Park, Hyderabad as part of its JV with Astra Microwave that has yielded ARC (Astra Rafael Company), for local manufacturing of the SDR BNET communication system for the Indian Air Force, with a $30 million purchase order. In addition, Rafael has placed a $100 million Order for MRSAM missile kits for the Indian Army and Air Force from KRAS (Kalyani RAFAEL Advanced Systems Ltd. India). This, among other steps, is testimony to RAFAEL’s global commitment to local production, knowledge transfer and industrial cooperation. Our supply chain in India is supported by more than 100 vendors, most of them are MSMEs that have been trained and qualified to supply parts of our systems. Private companies are willing to make more investments for the future to come. We believe that based on local contracts within India, the same supply chain can support export activities from India. Rafael already works with the different branches of the Indian military and the Indian security apparatus and has cooperated to integrate its land, air and naval systems in the leading operational platforms including electrooptical systems, advanced ordnance, as well as its air-to-air and air defence systems on the Indian Air Force and

Indian Navy platforms. With increasing future challenges emerging, we believe that our fifth generation systems, such as the Reccelite ISR pod with features like increased standoff and SAR capabilities, will serve a significant benefit and provide an important operational advantage to all branches of the Indian military and allow them to stay ahead of the adversary in various operational arenas. Recently, we have initiated interaction with Indian counterparts to explore a number of new technologies that have only received center stage, one being our FireFly loitering munition that has been recently sold to the Israeli Defence Force, and the other being the Drone Dome C-UAS system, having recently completed a series of tests that included a unique laser interception capability. Both systems have received substantial international interest, with India included. The COVID-19 pandemic places a hurdle in progressing programmes not only in India, but with most other countries, even ones which have been in

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the pipeline, and in some cases nearing fruition. Having said that, we are carrying on as planned and on schedule, and we are optimistic that once the situation stabilises, we'll be back on track to complete pipeline business activities and make further progress on ones that have slowed down. Despite the challenges and limitations posed by COVID-19, we continue to work in supporting India's defence programmes as best as can be done remotely, in full cooperation with the Indian MoD to address its needs, and fulfil its operational requirement, with the support of our local JVs. While waiting for the dust to settle, we are not stagnating, and are constantly on-the-move, researching, developing, keeping in close touch with our partners and customers around the world, adapting to the new reality of travel freeze, while maintaining relations via alternative digital routes, as we remain with a finger on the pulse, optimistic about renewed personal engagement with our Indian partners and hoping to see everyone at Aero India-2021.

DEFBIZ

An MH-60R Seahawk naval helicopter. India has ordered a total of 24 such choppers NAVY.MIL

LOCKHEED MARTIN CONCLUDES ANNUAL SUPPLIERS CONFERENCE

eaffirming its continued commitment to and focus on Make in India, Lockheed Martin has announced the culmination of the 7th edition of its annual Suppliers Conference on July 31, 2020. The event was cohosted with Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers (SIDM) and Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). Themed ‘Making India part of the Global Supply Chain’, the five-day conference witnessed more than 400 delegates. More than 200 companies of all sizes — large, MSMEs and startups participated in the conference. 62 companies joined the conference as exhibitors and used the virtual exhibition area of the ‘CII HIVE’ platform to showcase their company. V L Kantha Rao, Additional Secretary,

Department of Defence Production, Ministry of Defence; and Brigadier General Brian R. Bruckbauer, Director, Air Force Security Assistance and Cooperation Directorate, United States Air Force was Lockheed Martin’s Chief Guest and Guest of Honour respectively at the inaugural session of the conference. Rakesh Sasibhushan, Chairman of CII National Committee on Space delivered the special address to the delegates along with Lockheed Marin and SIDM leadership. William L Blair, Vice President and Chief Executive of Lockheed Martin India, said, “The annual Suppliers Conference is testimony to Lockheed Martin’s longstanding commitment to partnering with the Indian industry. Like previous editions, this year too, we saw

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an encouraging response from our supply chain network, MSMEs and the industry at-large with participation from more than 400 delegates, 200 companies and 62 exhibitors. Aligned with fulfilling the Indian Prime Minister’s vision of selfreliance, we continue to build on the foundation and support the growth of an indigenous defence manufacturing ecosystem, advancing the aerospace and start-up ecosystem, and strengthening India’s strategic security and industrial capabilities.” During the conference, Lockheed Martin shared new partnership opportunities with the Indian industry on its business areas including Aeronautics, Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS), Missiles and Fire Control (MFC), and Space.

DEFBIZ

A highlight from the company’s RMS group is future work with MH-60R for India. There is an offset requirement for the programme, and so as part of that, Lockheed Martin will put more indirect work over in India. During the February, 2020 visit of US President Donald Trump, India had announced that it will procure 24 MH-60R helicopters, worth around USD 2.6 billion. The RMS team will work with capable Indian companies over the next 7-8 years and provide opportunities to the industry to integrate into the global supply chain. RMS’ supply chain team already works with several industrial partners in India and plans to expand that list, strengthening its commitment to the country. India’s selection of the MH-60R multimission chopper provides the Indian Navy with the most advanced anti-surface/ anti-submarine warfare helicopter in operation today. The MH-60R offers the lowest risk and best value option because the aircraft is already in full production and globally supportable. The MH-60R provides a vital capability in the IndoPacific region and equips the Indian Navy with a tremendous capability that is ready for operations immediately upon delivery. As the world’s most advanced maritime security helicopter, the MH60R has a plethora of unmatched multimission capabilities which include AntiSubmarine Warfare (ASW)/ Anti-Surface Warfare (ASuW); Special Operations/ Search and Rescue (SAR); Utility/ Vertical Replenishment (VERTREP); and Command and Control (C2) capability. These choppers will be able to coordinate with Indian satellites, as well as other aircraft in the fleet in a very dense network centric environment. The aircraft’s fully integrated mission system also builds complete situational awareness and actionable knowledge, enabling target engagement both though close-in and over-the-horizon modes. The MH-60R also has unrivalled Anti-Submarine Warfare benefits that include nearly 1.5 times longer mission endurance time, larger search areas and greater threat detection capabilities. Along with higher availability rates, ease of maintenance activities and extremely less expensive operating costs, the helicopter brings advanced and immediate advantages to the Indian Navy. As a part of a separate deal, in April, 2019 the Indian Air Force had issued an RFI (Request for Information) or an initial tender to acquire 114 multirole fighter jets at a cost of around $18 billion, which is billed as one of the world's biggest

WILLIAM L. BLAIR VP & Chief Executive Lockheed Martin India military procurement in recent years. The top contenders for the deal include Lockheed's F-21, Boeing's F/A-18, Dassault Aviation's Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon, Russia’s MiG-35 and Saab's Gripen aircraft. In July 2019, Lockheed Martin, had highlighted that the company's offer of F-21 fighter jets is a very robust 'Make in India' proposition and if the country goes for the deal it will be "plugging into the world's largest fighter plane ecosystem". The F-21 comes equipped with advanced APG-83 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, an Advanced Electronic Warfare (EW) System, LongRange Infrared Search & Track (IRST) and Triple Missile Launcher Adapters (TMLAs). The APG-83 AESA radar has detection ranges nearly double that of previous mechanically scanned array radars and the ability to track and attack more targets with higher precision. The Long-Range Infrared Search and Track (IRST), enables pilots to detect threats without getting detected. Triple Missile Launcher Adapters (TMLAs) allow the F-21 to carry 40 per cent more air-toair weapons. Additionally, the F-21 also comes with a Dorsal Fairing which enables increased growth capacity and indigenous systems integration in the

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September 2020

future. The F-21 is also the only fighter in the world with both probe/drogue and boom aerial fueling capability. This, along with Conformal Fuel Tanks (CFTs), may deliver greater range penetration and loitering staying power to the Indian Air Force. The F-21 goes further, faster, and stays longer than the competitors, all at the most optimal Life Cycle Cost for the Indian Air Force with the longest service life of any competitor (12,000 flight hours). India’s integration into this robust fighter ecosystem through selection of the F-21 jet would result in being at the epicenter of a $165 billion market, with future opportunities to expand its footprint through further developing indigenous capabilities and global supplier relationships. The F-21 will be a game-changer for the Indian Air Force, Indian industry and the Indo-US strategic relationship. Richard A Smith, Vice President of Global Supply Chain Management, Lockheed Martin Space, said, “The Space Day of the conference witnessed more than 110 participants. The Space supply chain management team see potential to engage with more than seven suppliers through the virtual meeting rooms of the CII HIVE platform in the coming weeks to expand supplier footprint even further in India.” “Lockheed Martin’s Missiles and Fire Control division met with several new suppliers in India during the conference to better understand their manufacturing capabilities. Our suppliers in India continue to deliver quality products and services on time, and we look forward to expanding our supply base there”, stated Brian Kubik, Vice President of Global Supply Chain, Missiles and Fire Control. Lockheed Martin has also worked with Indian automobile giant- Ashok Leyland to develop a next generation military vehicle for India and the global market. The vehicle has been field evaluated in various environmental conditions by the Indian customers and has been selected by some of the military users in India. Lockheed Martin’s engineering support and the cooperative working relationship with Ashok Leyland was instrumental for the success of development and production of indigenous equipment, thus setting another great example of ‘Make in India’. Lastly, the event reiterated Lockheed Martin’s resolve to develop the capabilities of suppliers and to give them access to the global supply chain to manufacture in India, from India, for India and the world.

DEFBIZ INDIA

Raksha Mantri launches BEML’s indigenous products R aksha Mantri Rajnath Singh launched BEML’s Indigenously designed and developed products such as BH150E 150-tonne dump Truck; BE1800E 180-tonne electrical

Rolls-Royce celebrates a decade of R&D for Power Systems in India

is leading the way by introducing indigenously designed & developed products that will not only contribute to the country’s GDP but also ensure savings of precious foreign exchange. These products reemphasise BEML’s commitment towards ‘Make in India’ and selfreliance.”

BEML bags order of 1512 mine ploughs: BEML

excavator; BD50HST heliportable dozer; and Medium Bullet Proof Vehicle ‘GAUR’ (MBPV) coinciding with ‘Atmanirbharta Saptah’ on August 13. Among the BEML products the 150-tonne electric dump truck and BE1800E 180-tonne super giant electrical excavator built with swadeshi technology will cater to the requirements of the mining industry. Deepak Kumar Hota, CMD, BEML said, “At a time when the government is promoting ‘Atmanirbharta', BEML

has received order from the MoD for supply of 1512 Track Width Mine Ploughs (TWMP) for T-90 S/SK tanks at an approximate cost of Rs 557 crore. Under ‘Make in India’ policy the contract has Buy and Make (Indian) categorisation with a minimum of 50 percent indigenous content in make portion of the contract. These mine ploughs will be fitted on T-90 tanks of Indian Armoured Corps which will facilitate individual mobility to tanks while negotiating mine fields. Mobility of the tank fleet will enhance manifold, which in turn would extend the reach of armoured formations deep into enemy territory without becoming mine causality. This de-mine equipment is time tested for different soil conditions in Indian desert and customised for Indian operations.

olls-Royce is celebrating the tenth anniversary of its Engineering and Research Centre (EARC) in Pune, India. With the establishment of the development centre in 2010, the Rolls-Royce business unit- Power Systems launched its first research and development facility outside Germany. "The EARC in Pune is now our second-largest development site after Friedrichshafen. We benefit in many ways from the location in India: better influence on one of the growth markets, more resources and competencies in the development area and a more diverse corporate culture," said Andreas Schell, CEO of Rolls-Royce Power Systems. "With the development centre, we are not only demonstrating our presence in the Indian market, but with the support of our Indian colleagues we are also strengthening our core business and development in Germany," he added.

HAL’s indigenous LCH deployed for operations at Leh

wo HAL-produced Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) have been deployed for operations at high altitude (Leh sector) at short notice to support IAF missions. “It is the lightest attack helicopter in the world designed and developed by HAL to meet the specific and unique requirements of Indian Armed Forces reflecting the crucial role of HAL in Atmanirbhar Bharat”, said R Madhavan, CMD, HAL. The Vice Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Harjit Singh Arora took part in one such operation along with HAL test pilot- Wg Cdr (Retd) Subash P John recently by taking-off from high altitude location to a forward area for a simulated attack on a high-altitude target. This

was followed by a landing at one of the most complex helipads in the region. Prowess to forward locations in extreme temperatures. LCH is a potent weapon platform because of its state-of-the-art systems

September 2020 www.geopolitics.in

and highly accurate weapons that are capable of hitting any type of target by day or night. The other features of LCH include its ability to operate in the complete ‘Area of Responsibility’ (AOR) and altitudes. It has capability to carry adequate weapon loads at high altitudes under varied conditions. All these characteristics make it most suitable for hot and high-altitude operations. The IAF and the Indian Army together need around 160 LCHs. The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) had approved the proposal for initial batch of 15 LCHs. The IAF issued Request for Proposal (RFP) for 15 Limited Series Production (LSP) helicopters (ten for IAF and five for army).

DEFBIZ INDIA

BEL upgrades ATDS Maareech manufacturing facility

he upgraded state-of-the-art Maareech integration facility was innagurated by Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh on August 10 Gowtama MV, Chairman & Managing Director, Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), on the occasion gave a presentation to the Raksha Mantri on Advanced Torpedo Decoy System (ATDS) Maareech. This initiative by BEL is in accordance with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of an ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’, a selfreliant nation. ATDS Maareech is a fully indigenous system involving sensors and decoys developed jointly by DRDO labs, Naval Physical & Oceanographic Laboratory

(NPOL) and Naval Science & Technological Laboratory (NSTL), and productionised by BEL. Two production grade systems manufactured by BEL have been installed and trial evaluated onboard INS Gomati and INS Ganga. The Indian Navy has awarded BEL a contract for Maareech systems. Prior to the induction of ATDS Maareech, the Indian Navy had imported the system for 12 platforms. But now with the indigenous development of this system, BEL has upgraded its existing facilities with the capacity to manufacture and deliver 12 ATDS Maareech systems every year. This facility enables BEL to

provide a reliable defence mechanism for surface ships of the Indian Navy against possible torpedo attacks.

Govt working on second negative import list of defence products R aj Kumar, Secretary, Department of Defence Production, Ministry of Defence on August 17 said that the union government is working on the second negative import list of defence items. He added that it will be a continuous process and the government will, periodically, expand the list. Addressing a webinar ‘Army Make Projects-2020’, organised by FICCI jointly with the Indian Army, Kumar invited the Indian industry to invest and explore opportunities in the defence sector. “We are also examining when the second list will come, and we expect you (industry) to come forward and start investing to meet our requirements,” he said. He further said that the government has launched various policy initiatives to make the sector more attractive for the private sector. “All policies of the government, including the two defence industrial corridors, defence production and export promotion policy and the negative import list are focusing to ensure that our industry becomes the top producer of defence items in the world,” he added. Highlighting the potential of Army Make Projects-2020, Kumar said that the industry should stand up to the needs of the army, both in terms of quality as well as quantity and be price competitive. “We want to make for India and for the world. We also want you to export and the government will stand side by side

with the industry to promote exports,” he assured. In order to attract more foreign investments in the defence sector, Kumar said, “The proposal for up to 74 percent FDI in defence sector through automated route has already been submitted to the cabinet.” He added that the announced draft Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy-2020 focuses on attaining target of $25 billion of domestic production and $5 billion of exports by 2025. Lt Gen SK Saini, Vice Chief of the Army Staff, Indian Army, said that the Indian defence industry has radically changed in the last few years and it can emerge as a global hub of defence equipment. He further assured the industry of full support from the Indian Army. “It will always be an honour for us to fight and win wars with equipment made in India and made by Indians,” he added. He also urged the industry to adopt latest technology to make world-class equipment. “Developing indigenous and local capabilities to confront the emerging security challenges is an imperative,” he emphasised. To further support the industry, Lt

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September 2020

Gen Saini also highlighted that the Indian Army is giving impetus to promote MSMEs and small-scale industries to become part of the defence production ecosystem. He also assured handholding

the industry in developing the prototype with a dedicated team of officers. Sanjay Jaju, Joint Secretary (DIP), Ministry of Defence said that R&D is not limited to DRDO and DPSU. Design and development will benefit the competitive private sector. Make-2, idex, Strategic Partnership are examples of these. "DPSUs are given a target of 5000 items to indigenise revenue items. They have released EOI to industry in the development of prototypes," he said.

DEFBIZ GLOBAL

Rosoboronexport and Technodinamika to promote flight simulators globally

osoboronexport and Technodinamika, which are part of the Rostec State Corporation have signed a joint action programme to promote aircraft training aids in the world market. The programme aims to organise effective interaction between Rosoboronexport and Technodinamika in order to increase exports of training equipment for military, dual-use and civil aircraft. "The practice of the air forces around the world suggests that through crew training one can often minimise, if not avoid, nonbattle losses in personnel and materiel. Russian flight simulators have proven themselves effective. They are extensively used for training foreign specialists in Russia under Rosoboronexport’s contracts, as well as supplied to our partners for training pilots abroad. Today, our portfolio of orders includes contracts for the supply of Technodinamika’s flight simulators to more than 15 countries from various regions of the world. Together, I am sure, we will achieve a steady growth in this indicator," said Alexander Mikheev, Director General of Rosoboronexport and Deputy Chairman of the Russian Engineering Union.

Raytheon and Rafael establish Iron Dome production facility in US

aytheon and Rafael have signed a joint venture to establish an Iron Dome weapon system production facility in the United States. The new partnership is called Raytheon RAFAEL Area Protection Systems. This will be the first Iron Dome all-up-round facility outside of Israel. The new facility will produce both the Iron Dome weapon system, which consists of the Tamir interceptor and launcher, and the SkyHunter missile, a US derivative of Tamir. Both Tamir and SkyHunter can intercept incoming cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems and shortrange targets such as rockets, artillery, mortars and other aerial threats.

Raytheon and Rafael have teamed

for over a decade on Iron Dome, the world’s most-used system with more than 2,500 operational intercepts and a success rate exceeding 90 percent.

SpearUAV unveils Ninox, a drone system for instant ISTAR capabilities

pearUAV- an innovative company that develops and supplies unique UAS solutions for defence and HLS applications- has unveiled its Ninox family of encapsulated drones. Instantly launched and intuitively operated, the drones provide ondemand and on-the-move intelligence capabilities that create new

September 2020 www.geopolitics.in

dimensions on the battlefield. Compared to traditional drones of similar capabilities, Ninox offers both operational affordability and f lexibility: the drones can be launched manually or from a grenade launcher by individual soldiers, from a stationary or mobile land platform, or from an aerial or maritime system. Ruggedised and built to withstand extreme environmental conditions and vibrations, Ninox is available in a range of drone and capsule sizes, and can be easily customised to meet customer requirements. Requiring no deployment, the Ninox system comprises a drone, launched at high speed from the weapon, which then immediately unfolds and stabilises in the air without operator intervention. There are currently three solutions in the Ninox family: Ninox 40, Ninox 66 and Ninox 103.

DEFBIZ GLOBAL

Russian Helicopters unveils new high-speed rotor blades

ussian Helicopters presented new fully composite rotor blades designed to increase the maximum speed of Mi-28 and Mi-35 combat choppers at the International MilitaryTechnical Forum ARMY-2020. The blade possesses modern aerodynamic characteristics and elastic composition; it is manufactured using the technology of one-stage compression moulding. It was tested as part of the

undergoing factory f light tests on a Mi-28N helicopter. Russian Helicopters presents upgraded Mi-171Sh: The company for the first time presented the upgraded Mi-171SH "Storm" military transport helicopter at the show. The presentation also included the IBK V-17VP "glass cockpit" avionics suite and model of the new target sight system. "Upgraded Mi-171Sh provides superior level of

f lying laboratory of a new high-speed helicopter concept. "During the testing, the f lying laboratory based on Mi-24 helicopter equipped with a set of new blades, reached a speed of more than 400 km an hour without the need to change the base helicopter design. At the same time, we managed to maintain low vibration and load levels, which speaks of the high potential of this design", noted the Director General of Russian Helicopters, Andrey Boginsky. The new rotor blades are currently

protection for both the crew and transported troops, thanks to Titanium and Kevlar armour protection, and the vehicle's strike capabilities have been expanded to include guided missile weapons”, noted the Director General of the Russian Helicopters, Andrey Boginsky. Mi-171Sh "Storm" is equipped with upgraded engines, new rotor system with an improved profile composite main rotor and X-shaped tail rotor, as well as latest version of the President-S onboard aircraft defence system.

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BAE delivers first AMPV to US Army

he first Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle (AMPV) has driven off the BAE Systems production line to be delivered to the U.S. Army. The AMPV is central to the US Army’s modernization objectives and comes in five variants to meet a wide range of missions across the battlefield. Identified by the US Army as a top priority for safety and survivability, the AMPV family provides the Army with a highly survivable and mobile fleet of vehicles that address a critical need to replace the Vietnam War-era M113s and maneuver with the ABCT in challenging terrain on the front lines. Under the current low rate initial production contract awarded in 2018, BAE Systems will deliver more than 450 of the highly mobile, survivable, multi-purpose vehicles. “Finalizing the first AMPV for delivery marks a major milestone for the program and the U.S. Army,” said Bill Sheehy, AMPV program director for BAE Systems’ Ground Vehicles product line. “The AMPV is designed to meet the Army’s missions for the Armored Brigade Combat Teams (ABCT) and lay the foundation for the future of the battlefield.” The Mission Command vehicle will be the first vehicle delivered and is the cornerstone of the Army's ABCT Network Modernization Strategy. It facilitates digital mission command, taking advantage of increased volume, protection, power and cooling capabilities and provides flexibility and growth capacity for command, control, communications and computer capabilities. The AMPV has built-in growth to add new capabilities as technology evolves, including enhanced power generation for advanced electronics, and network connectivity. This gives the Army a vehicle to execute today’s missions, with the ability to adapt to future technologies and capabilities. The AMPV has completed nearly two dozen Army tests and has consistently met or exceeded all of its requirements.

September 2020

DIPLOMACY

Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcoming US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump, upon their arrival at Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport at Ahmedabad, Gujarat on February 24, 2020

DEMOCRATS VERSUS REPUBLICANS: DOES IT MATTER TO INDIA? 56

September 2020 www.geopolitics.in

DIPLOMACY

Joe Biden kicking off the rally for his 2020 US Presidential campaign

nce again the United States is getting ready to elect a President and Indian analysts are asking the question they ask every four years: will a Democrat or a Republican be better for India’s national interest? Before discussing the path to mutually beneficial agreements it is necessary to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates, their parties, and their attitude towards India.

Don’t count Trump out PIB

AMIT GUPTA argues that the party in power does not matter as much as the personal link between the leaders of the two countries and that while a personal connection may help, it will be the ability of both the Indian and American leadership to make arrangements that satisfy their mutual national interests, which will be more important

In 2016, the political pundits all thought that there was going to be a democratic wave that would sweep Hillary Clinton to power. Instead, Donald Trump won and the Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Both American and Indian analysts were flabbergasted by the outcome. In July of 2016, I gave a lecture to a group of retired bureaucrats and diplomats and they asked who would win? My answer was Hillary had a 51 percent chance of winning while Trump had a 49 percent chance; so don’t count Trump out. Four years later, the same dictum applies and there are several reasons for thinking that the race is a lot closer than it looks. First, Trump is a skilled campaigner and a user of both media and social media while, in contrast, Biden comes across as a traditional politician who is

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September 2020

WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

more conservative in his ability to use both mediums. Secondly, much of the unfavorable opinion against Trump comes from his handling of Covid-19 and the shrinking of the economy in the worst economic crisis since the great depression. If the economy rebounds by September-October, then Trump can take credit for weathering the crisis. Thirdly, much of Trump’s success comes from his using of racial, xenophobic, and nationalistic tropes to energise his base which feels threatened by the emerging demographic changes in America. Apart from Trump’s own skills there come the weaknesses of the different groups that the Democrats think will mobilise in large numbers to vote. The millennials, who tend to be liberal and believe in climate change, do not vote in large enough numbers to count. African-Americans and Hispanics have historically had low turnouts in elections even though they are the groups that have been the subject of most of Trump’s jingoistic rhetoric. If these groups do not show up in large enough numbers of election day, Trump will be swept to power by his diehard supporters who will show up in large enough numbers to help him retain power. There is also the problem of interference in the electoral process. Indians remember successful attempts to rig local elections, and then there

DIPLOMACY

US CONGRESS

United States Senator Kamala Harris who has been selected as the 2020 Vice Presidential candidate by the Democratic Party

is the time-honored Indian tradition of defection, but the United States loves to say as the world’s greatest democracy, it has the best electoral process. In fact, there is a long history of gerrymandering districts to make them less competitive, to stuff ballot boxes, and now there are attempts to use social media and even slowing down the postal service to make it difficult for people to vote. Putting all the factors together makes Trump, at least at the time of writing, a formidable candidate who it would be a serious error to underestimate.

p a i g ne r m a c d e ll i d a sk Trump is r of both media an es e m and a us dia. But Biden co ician social me a traditional polit n his across as re conservative i o who is m use both mediums ability to

Biden and the Kamala Harris factor

Joe Biden is an old school democrat who won the primaries because a large section of the Democratic Party was scared of the progressive Bernie Sanders with his vision of universal healthcare for Americans (and after COVID-19 and large scale unemployment, a lot of Americans are beginning to think Bernie was right

because their health insurance was tied to their job). The Democrats were scared of being dubbed radicals and socialists by the Republicans, so they chose a safe, centrist candidate in Biden. The former Vice President, in turn, has played it safe and chosen a self-identified black woman with good

September 2020 www.geopolitics.in

centrist credentials. The progressive wing of the party would have preferred the super smart Elizabeth Warren but they will now have to make a hard choice: stay home like so many of them did in 2016 because they were disgusted by Hillary Clinton; or go with the bland ticket of Biden and Harris. Biden’s choice of Harris is meant to appeal to the African-American community, women professionals, and even the small Indian-American community. But it is worth asking if Harris’s heritage plays any part in her self-identification or even in her views on India? Put simply, the answer is no. Harris’s success lies with the upbringing and support given to her by her Tamil Brahmin mother, Shyamala Gopalan. It was this mother who raised her two daughters while getting a medical degree and Harris grew up on a diet of Dosas, Idli, and Dahi. She also went to both a Black Baptist Church and a Hindu Temple and over the years has decided to stress her black identity as opposed to her Indian one. Before anybody gets too outraged by this, let us remember that everyone has a right to chose who they identify with and one wonders how much racism Harris faced from the Indian-American community because of her black heritage? Harris, therefore, may have Indian cultural roots, and occasionally acknowledges them, but her identity is African-American. Do not expect any sentimental or emotional ties from her on Indian issues. Further, if one looks at the people handling South Asia for the Biden campaign, they are Sumona Guha and Tom West, both of whom come out of the consultancy groups set up by former Washington insiders. Guha works for Albright Associates, the firm of Madeline Albright while West is a member of the Cohen Group and the focus of both will likely be on the IndiaUS business relationship. Indian analysts need to remember that while Modi supporters were

PIB

DIPLOMACY

Union Minister for Petroleum & Natural Gas and Steel, Dharmendra Pradhan at the event- ‘India-US Business Story: Opportunity, Innovation, Entrepreneurship’, in New Delhi on February 25, 2020

energised by the Howdy Modi show in Houston and the Namaste Trump meeting in Ahmedabad, neither event brought concrete improvements in the India-US relationship. This is because neither Trump nor Biden has any emotional ties to India as they do have for Europe and the future relationship will be determined by how both countries address concrete issues. What will decide the fate of the relationship is how the two countries are able to navigate particular issues: Kashmir, trade, human rights, and dealing with China.

s together r to c a f e h e ll t Putting a ump, at least at thle r b makes T riting, a formida a time of w who it would be ate candidate ror to underestim r s er i ou s e

Focus on issues, not personalities

For India, Kashmir is the public relations problem that never goes away in part because skillful Pakistani diplomats are able to use the slightest excuse to revive the issue in Washington while India’s diplomats sit idly by and let the Pakistanis get their diplomatic victory. After the revocation of Article-370, Imran Khan visited the United States and painted apocalyptic

scenarios about the new status of Kashmir within the Indian republic. Khan argued to receptive ears that Kashmir could lead to a nuclear war between India and Pakistan and, sadly, no Indian counterpoint was provided on any of the news shows that the Pakistan premier was a guest on—

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September 2020

Indian diplomacy had dropped the ball on the subject. In the past, India was able to keep Kashmir off the agenda by arguing persuasively to the Obama administration that it should keep its diplomatic activities restricted to looking for a Af-Pak peace settlement rather than a Af-Pak-Kashmir settlement. The Obama administration agreed to go with the Indian argument and until Trump said he was willing to mediate on Kashmir, US decision makers had let the issue lie. Whether Trump or Biden becomes President, the issue is likely to be revived in Washington circles. So Indian diplomacy must work to convince the American President, whoever he is that bringing Kashmir up will only poison the India-US relationship and that it would be a bad mistake at a time the US is adopting a more aggressive position vis-à-vis China. The best way to keep Kashmir off the agenda, however, is to deepen the trade relationship with the United States.

ARMY.MIL

DIPLOMACY

US and Indian Army Soldiers training to become a cohesive team at Joint Base Lewis-McCord, during exercise Yudh Abhyas-2019

Trade

As I have written before in this magazine, Indians are under the mistaken belief that India is well liked by the West and those countries have strong emotional feelings for New Delhi. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Western nations have close ties amongst themselves and tend to exclude the other countries in major decision making issues. What interests the West about India is what has driven the Western actions since 1608 when the Europeans went to the court of the Emperor Jahangir—to look for trading outlets. The Western countries, particularly the United States, see India as a large market for goods and services but the Indian government has never understood how to use the market size to its advantage. Markets create jobs and leverage for the country that opens up its economy to take advantage of external investments and, if India could rid itself of its arcane and archaic

is of Harris ricane ic o h c ’s Biden to the Af en l a e p p a meant to community, wom American ls, and even the a profession n-American ia small Ind y communit

land and labour laws, such investments would flow into the country. To date, the Modi government has not gone fast enough on the track to make investments easy and, instead,

September 2020 www.geopolitics.in

continued with the policies that dissuade so many countries from investing in significant amounts in India. With the recession in the Indian economy, New Delhi, however, may have reached another 1991 like moment where it will have to loosen up the bureaucratic red-tape to permit greater investment in the country. If this happens, the simple way to do so is to ask for greater investments in the 29 sectors other than defence that are listed in the ‘Make in India’ programme. If trade and investments can escalate in 2021, then whichever government comes to power in Washington is likely to look far more kindly at New Delhi and seek to accommodate vital Indian foreign policy interests.

Dealing with China

The other core interest that will prevail in Washington, regardless of the existence of a Republican or Democratic administration, is the

PIB

DIPLOMACY

Former US President Barack Obama attending the 2015 Republic Day Parade in New Delhi

need to seek allies to contain China. To do this, India will have to show that it is willing to go beyond the rhetoric of the Quad—which has led a lot of talk and symbolic military exercises—to a situation where the Quad shows a greater degree of military cooperation among the four countries. The IndiaJapan relationship will be crucial to accomplish this since Australia, despite all the hype in Canberra and Washington, is a bit player in the IndoPacific military competition. India should, therefore, be seeking a stronger military cooperation with Japan which could include purchasing the excellent Soryu class conventional submarines that Japan has shown a willingness to sell to India. An India which helps militarise the Quad would be viewed positively by Washington since it would suggest that the country had moved beyond rhetoric to actually taking concrete steps to challenge China’s rising hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region.

Human rights

The one issue where the political

if jobs and s e t a e r c s t Marke ld rid itself of it nd India cound archaic land a l arcane a ws, huge externa to the labour la nts would flow in i nv e s t m e country

identity of the regime in Washington will matter is in the pursuit of the human rights agenda of the United States. Trump has given considerable leeway on human rights to countries he favours working with and thus Saudi Arabia, Russia, and even China have not been challenged by the current

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September 2020

administration on their disregard for human rights. A Biden administration is likely to change that as both the issues of internal events in Kashmir as well as the broader issue of freedom of religion in India will be brought up. To placate the Biden administration, the Indian government will have to take some measures that satisfy critics in Washington but, as mentioned above, a dynamic trade policy would help mute such criticism. The fact, however, is that even if the Biden administration seeks to rebuke the Modi government, it would be mindful of both the market imperative and the China imperative; it would, therefore, criticise India gently. It would require a sophisticated and nuanced Indian diplomatic approach to cope with this. In conclusion, India’s best bet lies in addressing long-term issues that are mutually beneficial rather than second-guessing which administration will be favourable in the long run. Amit Gupta is based in the US and writes on economic and security issues

RIGHT ANGLE

SKILLING GAPS IN DEFENCE PRODUCTION

n accordance with its “Atmanirbhar Bharat” policy, the Government on August 10 announced a ban on import of 101 weapons, platforms and equipment. Later, none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi surprised the participants at a Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-event by his “unscheduled address”, in which he asserted that, “Our commitment to self-sufficiency in defence production is not limited to talks or papers. The effort in the last few years has been to break all the shackles associated with the defence sector. Our aim is to increase production in India, develop new technology in India, and maximise expansion of private sector.” In fact, the Prime Minister went to the extent of “making” India a major exporter of arms in near future. It is particularly noteworthy when the Prime Minister says that “the commitment to self-sufficiency in defence production is not limited to talks or papers”. After all, selfsufficiency in arms is not exactly a new goal; it has been stressed upon by every government in recent years. We have heard enough of schemes like “makeIndian” and “buy-Indian” in the defence sector. Obviously, the goal has not been realised and that explains why the Prime Minister now is talking of going beyond “talks”. Experts have pointed out many reasons why there Prakash has been a gap between the goal and the reality with regard to our defence production- capability. In fact, we have carried out an important essay on the subject in this issue of the magazine. Therefore, I will like to limit myself in pointing out only two aspects of the problem. First, and this may sound ironical, producing high-tech weapons or platforms at home either on your own or in collaboration with a foreign vendor may not be cheaper than the option of purchasing the item off the shelf from an original equipment manufacturer (OEM). For instance, the Su-30 MKI is developed by Russia’s Sukhoi and built under licence by India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the Indian Air Force. But then many studies say that the HALmade MKIs are much more expensive than if these would have been bought from Russia. Similarly, there is a huge cost difference between the cost of the Hawk trainer aircraft manufactured by British Aerospace and those made by HAL. Even, the original deal to procure Rafale fighter jets from France in 2012 did not fructify mainly due to the fact that producing them at HAL would have proved costlier and more time-consuming, something the OEM Dassault was not prepared for. Secondly, there is the more important issue of quality of the defence products manufactured by our eight defence public sector undertakings, 41 Ordnance Factories, and 49 Defence Research and Development Organisations (DRDO) establishments. Let alone their records in not meeting the deadlines of promised deliveries, the defence forces (the endusers) reject, more often than not, their products for want of quality. Of course, there is a very valid counter logic here. Citing the experience of China, it has been said that like the PLA our armed forces should not overstress the quality factor and thus encourage the indigenous base to produce more and more and thus learn from experience to develop better systems in course of time. I do not want join this debate. My simple point is that as things stand today, our indigenous base of developing quality strategic products in areas other than missiles, nuclear and

space, is rather poor. What does affect our quality? One reason is that since we invest the least, in comparison with technologically advanced countries, in basic research (R&D) in scientific and educational establishments, we are always dependent on foreign technologies, which, in turn, do not come to us easily. Over the last 20 years or so, India’s expenditure on R&D has been stagnant at as low as 0.6% – 0.7% of the GDP, much lower than countries like South Korea at 4.3%, Israel at 4.2% and Japan at 3.4%. The US invests around 2 .84 % of its GDP on R&D, but then given its large GDP this amount is huge ($553 billion in 2018). Even China, with an R &D expenditure (USD 275 billion in 2018) spends about 2.2 percent of its GDP. The other reason that is often underplayed is the quality man power in India. Prime Minister Modi often exaggerates India’s population dividend. But the bitter truth is that most our youth is unemployable, particularly in establishments developing strategic or defence products. We do not have employable engineers with a background in mecha-tronics, composites, and system integration knowledge, so important in technology-driven defence sector. Our DRDO is not getting enough engineers and young scientists despite its best attempts; the organisation, rather, has Nanda seen a number scientists resigning to avail of better opportunities elsewhere. On the contrary, just see the situation in countries producing world’s major weapon systems and platforms. France has specialised engineering schools like “Institut Superier de l’Aeronautique et de l’Espace (ISAE)” and “Ecole Nationale de l’AviationCivile (ENAC)” in Toulouse and “Ecole Nationale Superieure de Mecnique et d’Aerotechnique (ENSMA)” in Poitiers that produce engineers for its defence industry. The base of the successful manufacturing industry in Germany is built on the fine and firm foundation of “Apprenticeship Training”. The core of the model here is “dual training’ whereby trainees split their days between classroom instruction at a vocational school and on-the-job time at a company. The theory they learn in class is reinforced by the practice at job. This arrangement lasts for two to four years, depending on the sector. And this arrangement suits the prospective employer and potential employees eventually in jobs that cement the relationship further. Important, thus, is the factor of skills in general. In India, the skilled man power - base is pathetic, to speak the least. It is said to be at 4.69% of total workforce, compared to 24% in China, 52% in the US, 68% in the UK, 75% in Germany, 80% in Japan and 96% in South Korea. Of course, it is to the credit of the Modi-government that it is trying to promote skills, evident from its proposed new education policy. But then, there is a long path to cover. In sum, the most challenging task in becoming self reliant or “Atmanirbhar” in defence is developing men/women who are capable to produce quality weapon systems and platforms. A focused skill development policy for this sector is the need of the hour. We need as many talented engineering graduates to enter the core manufacturing sector (of which military-industrial establishment is a part) as in the glamorous IT sector, and to retain them once they enter.

September 2020 www.geopolitics.in

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