ISO/TC 252
ISO/TC 252 ISO/TC 252 - Project committee: Natural gas fuelling stations for vehicles Email of secretary: shyreen.dahoe@nen.nl Secretariat: NEN (Netherlands)
N032 Liaison report & state of union NGV Global Mumbai 2010 Document type:
Other committee document
Date of document:
2010-11-29
Expected action:
INFO
Background: Committee URL:
http://isotc.iso.org/livelink/livelink/open/tc252
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Global Momentum •
Average growth (total numbers) since 2000 = 27% /annum Average of 4,000 new NGVs on the road per day (past 5 years) Average of 8 new NGV fuelling stations established per day (past 2 years) Vehicle growth on par with projections made in 2006, despite recession in 2009 65 million NGVs (approx. 9% of current world vehicle fleet size) projected by 2020 A lot of takeover and merger activity - $200 million in one week in July. Indicates consolidation and maturity for the industry
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ISO PC 252 – Liaison and State of Union
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Brett Jarman Executive Director
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Mumbai – November 2010 Connecting the Natural Gas Vehicle Industry
Markets are Maturing
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Dec 2009
NGVs
Stations
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Pakistan, Argentina, Iran and Brazil, all with more than 1.5 million NGVs each.
Pakistan
2,300,000
3,068
Argentina
1,807,186
1,851
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India – Now more than 1 million NGVs
Iran
1,665,602
1,021
Brazil
1,632,101
1,704
India
935,000
560
Italy
628,624
730
China
450,000
1,339
Colombia
300,000
460
Ukraine
200,000
285
Bangladesh
177,555
500
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Iran – 2 million NGVs
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Top ten nations account for 89% of total NGV population (10.096 million)
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Rate of growth in top four nations expected to slow (momentum increasing again in Argentina though) Mostly price sensitive markets
Projection
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Energy Security • Oil distribution– limited sources. Subject to price ‘management’ via supply
Energy Security • Natural Gas distribution – more widely distributed. Almost impossible to manage price via supply
Graphic - BP Statistical Review 2008 (red highlights added by NGV Global)
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Graphic - BP Statistical Review 2008
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Energy Security
Energy Reserves
• Natural Gas distribution – more widely distributed. Almost impossible to manage price via supply • OPEC has 77% of known oil reserves and thus controls world oil pricing. • Russia has an additional 9.2% of oil reserves. • This means more than 85% of world oil reserves are in the hands of only 13 countries.
Distribution of oil reserves (billion barrels)
Distribution of natural gas reserves (Trillion cubic metres) Less concentration in Middle East. More even distribution amongst other regions, including Asia- Pacific , where demand will likely increase most in coming years. With natural gas vehicles, OPEC will no longer have world economies ‘over a barrel’.
Graphics - BP Statistical Review 2010
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Industry SWOT
NGV Global Draft Strategic Plan
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
•Abundant gas supplies worldwide – highest capability in alternative fuel segment •Geographic distribution of NG •Capability (i.e. range of vehicles and applications) •Increasing product availability •High safety standards •Small scale LNG capabilities
•Low infrastructure availability •Fighting status quo of well established fuels •Inadequate profile in media •Low participation in NGV associations
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
•Leverage biomethane in renewables sector •More vigorous participation in commercial vehicle segment •Marine segment – massive fuel volumes •Raise media profile
•‘Other’ alternatives confusing market place •Fickle Government policy •Inconsistent treatment of methane as pollutant •Safety short cuts •Inadequate regulatory oversight •Diminishing perception of environmental benefits •Variable standards and regs across markets •Strong lobbying efforts from status quo fuels
• Four Focus Areas – – – –
Safety Information and Awareness Standards and Regulations Advocacy and Relationships
• Ongoing efforts in all areas • Additional focus given to one area each year for next four years
Safety
Information and Awareness
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• Constant gathering and dissemination of data (Research Assistant planned for 2011)
Main focus for first year Incident reporting system (online) Collate and analyse historical incident data Incident feedback system (lessons learnt communicated to industry) • Position paper on cylinder and vehicle identification • Incident investigation recommendations
– e.g. Gas composition data in conjunction with IGU
• Revamp website to become ‘knowledgebase’ • Updating members’ portal • Plans for industry year book – commencing 2011 calendar year • Specific PR strategy • Develop short 3-4 minute generic videos for use in all markets • Reviewing current Conference model
Standards and Regulations
Advocacy and Relationships
• Harmonisation main priority • Global audit of standards recently completed – published soon • Review cost of non-harmonisation to industry • Review industry for best practice cylinder inspection protocols • Stimulate culture shift amongst regulators re importance of policing regs (i.e. change current indifference to active role) • Increase liaison status with ISO and other committees (e.g. OIML) • Initiate NWIPs as required
• Provide global policy models for Governments (matrix of sectors and their needs) • Strive for consistent treatment of methane in emissions regs • Help establish and build national and regional NGV associations • Build on UN relationships (attending UNFCCC climate change talks in Mexico next month) • Monitor harmonisation of light and heavy duty test procedures • Build on NGO relationships – IGU, IEA, etc.
The Results Are In
The Results Are In
Pareto Principle (80/20 rule) ‘roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes’
HYBRIDS
HYBRIDS
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Major Trends (Opportunities) in Coming Decade
Hybrids – Expectation vs Reality
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• Commercial Vehicles Likely to Lead Market in High GDP Nations • Heavy Duty Applications (USA 7% of AFVs accounting for 67% of petroleum displacement) • Marine Applications • Renewable Biogas/Biomethane • Small Scale LNG Production Facilities • Modular ‘scalable’ CNG fuelling stations • CNG Hybrids. Buses especially. • Consolidation in CNG cylinder production (mergers and takeovers)
*2007 displacement = 16 million gallons
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NGV Global
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Brett Jarman – Executive Director bjarman@iangv.org
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Head Office - PO Box 128 446, Remuera, Auckland, New Zealand Web sites www.iangv.org (Industry Info) www.ngvglobal.com (Weekly News) SUBSCRIBE ONLINE FREE www.ngvglobal.org (Association Info)
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Over 300 members worldwide Network of national and regional affiliates
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Sponsor members…