2040 LRTP Tech Memo #3: 2040 Socioeconomic Forecasts by North Florida TPO

Technical Memorandum #3 2040 Socio Economic Forecasts

December 12, 2014

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Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

ACRONYMS ABM AC ACS BEA BEBR BRT CC COM DRI EAR ENCPA FAR FLDOE FLUM FT HH ICUF IVC LRTP MIX NERPM NERPM-AB PopGen PHH PUD PUMS SF TAZ TND TPO

Activity Based Model Activity Center American Community Survey Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Economic Business and Research Bus Rapid Transit Community Centers Commercial Development of Regional Impact Evaluation and Appraisal Report East Nassau Community Planning Area Floor Area Ratio Florida Department of Education Future Land Use Maps Facility Type Households Independent Colleges and Universities of Florida Interchange Village Center Long Range Transportation Plan Mixed Use North East Florida Regional Planning Model North East Florida Regional Planning Model â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Activity Based Population Generator program Persons Per Household Planned Unit Development Public Use Microdata Sample Square Feet Traffic Analysis Zone Traditional Neighborhood Transportation Planning Organization

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS.................................................................................................................................................... I LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................ III LIST OF FIGURES........................................................................................................................................... IV 1.

INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................1 ORGANIZATION OF THIS DOCUMENT ...............................................................................................................................3

YEAR 2040 DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS...............................................................................................4 DATA COMPARISON – YEAR 2035 AND 2040 ..................................................................................................................4 COORDINATION...........................................................................................................................................................6

YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS..........................................................................8 METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................................................................................8 APPROVED DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................................................... 12 GROUP QUARTER AND SEASONAL POPULATION............................................................................................................. 12

YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS......................................................................13 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................................... 13 APPROVED DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................................................... 19

YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS .........................................................23 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 REASONABLENESS CHECKS ......................................................................................................................................... 25

DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS BY COUNTY ...........................................................................................26 NASSAU COUNTY...................................................................................................................................................... 26 Nassau County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process .................................................................. 26 Nassau County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process ............................................................... 33 Nassau County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ...................................................... 35 DUVAL COUNTY ....................................................................................................................................................... 38 Duval County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process .................................................................... 38 Duval County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process.................................................................. 52 Duval County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ......................................................... 58 ST. JOHNS COUNTY............................................................................................................................................... 60 St. John’s County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process ............................................................... 60 St. John’s County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process ............................................................ 64 St. John’s County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ................................................... 69 CLAY COUNTY .......................................................................................................................................................... 70 Clay County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process ....................................................................... 70 Clay County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process .................................................................... 76 Clay County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ........................................................... 79 BAKER COUNTY ........................................................................................................................................................ 80 Baker County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process .................................................................... 80 Baker County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process.................................................................. 89

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

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Baker County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ......................................................... 90 PUTNAM COUNTY .................................................................................................................................................... 92 Putnam County Year 2040 Population Development Process .......................................................................... 92 Putnam County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process .............................................................. 99 Putnam County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ................................................... 101 7.

FINALIZATION OF DATA ....................................................................................................................... 102

YEAR 2030 DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS........................................................................................... 103

APPENDIX A: COORDINATION .................................................................................................................... 106 APPENDIX B: REVIEW COMMENTS.............................................................................................................. 141

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Comparison Population Projections Year 2035 and 2040 .............................................................................................. 5 Table 2: Year 2010 and 2040 Population Totals by County ......................................................................................................... 5 Table 3: Year 2010 Vacant Residential Parcels and Vacant Housing Units ................................................................................ 10 Table 4: Year 2010 Employment Distribution Compared to Population Distribution by County .............................................. 13 Table 5: Year 2010 Employment Data Sources .......................................................................................................................... 14 Table 6: BEA 2000 and 2005 Employment Data – Growth Rate ................................................................................................ 15 Table 7: BEBR 2005 and 2010 Employment Data – Growth Rate .............................................................................................. 15 Table 8: BEA Year 2000 and 2010 Employment Data ................................................................................................................ 16 Table 9: Year 2040 Employment Estimates based on BEA ........................................................................................................ 16 Table 10: Year 2040 Employment Projections and Population in Households .......................................................................... 17 Table 11: Year 2040 Population and Year 2040 BEA Employment Estimates Comparison ....................................................... 18 Table 12: NERPM-AB Year 2010 and 2040 Population and Employment Control Totals ......................................................... 18 Table 13: NERPM-AB Employment Sectors ............................................................................................................................... 19 Table 14: Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sectors ............................................................................................................ 20 Table 15: Year 2010 Employment by Sector by County ............................................................................................................. 21 Table 16: Year 2040 Total Sector Employment by County ........................................................................................................ 22 Table 17: Year 2010 School Enrollment Data versus Age Group Data....................................................................................... 23 Table 18: Year 2040 School Enrollment Projections versus Age Group Projections.................................................................. 24 Table 19: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) .............................................................. 32 Table 20: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sector ..................................................................................... 34 Table 21: Nassau County Year 2040 DRI Employment Estimate................................................................................................ 35 Table 22: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data .................................................................................... 37 Table 23: Duval County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) ................................................................ 50 Table 24: Duval County Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sector ....................................................................................... 53 Table 25: Duval County Year 2040 Approved Development Employment ................................................................................ 55 Table 26: Duval County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data ...................................................................................... 59 Table 27: St. John's County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH)........................................................... 63 Table 28: St. John's County Year 2010 and 2040 Employment Data ......................................................................................... 65 Table 29: St. John’s County Year 2040 DRI Employment Estimate ............................................................................................ 67 Table 30: St. John’s County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data by District ............................................................................... 70 Table 31: Clay County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Data Living in Households (HH) .......................................................... 75 Table 32: Clay County 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sector .................................................................................................. 76 Table 33: Clay County Year 2040 Approved Employment Estimate .......................................................................................... 78 Table 34: Clay County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data by District ....................................................................... 80 Table 35: Baker County Summary of Parcel Data TAZ 2402 ...................................................................................................... 87 Table 36: Baker County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) ................................................................ 88 Table 37: Baker County Employment Totals by Sector 2010 and 2040 ..................................................................................... 89 Table 38: Baker County Year 2040 Employment Estimate Alternate Scenario.......................................................................... 90 Table 39: Baker County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data ...................................................................................... 91 Table 40: Putnam County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) ............................................................. 99 Table 41: Putnam County Employment Totals by Sector 2010 and 2040 ............................................................................... 100 Table 42: Putnam County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data ................................................................................ 102 Table 43: Year 2030 Population living in HH and Number of HH by County ........................................................................... 103 Table 44: Year 2030 Sector Employment by County............................................................................................................... 104 Table 45: Year 2030 School Enrollment Projections by County ............................................................................................... 105

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

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December 12, 2014

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: North Florida TPO NERPM-AB Six County Study Area .................................................................................................. 2 Figure 2: Study Area District Map ................................................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 3: Nassau County Municipal Boundaries ........................................................................................................................ 27 Figure 4: Nassau County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ..................................................... 28 Figure 5: Fernandina Beach Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ................................................ 29 Figure 6: Nassau County Future Land Use Map ......................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 7: Nassau County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment .................................... 36 Figure 8: Duval County Municipal Boundaries ........................................................................................................................... 39 Figure 9: Duval County District 5 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ........................................ 40 Figure 10: Duval County District 6 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................... 41 Figure 11: Duval County District 7 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................... 42 Figure 12: Duval County District 8 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................... 43 Figure 13: Duval County District 9 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................... 44 Figure 14: Duval County District 10 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units .................................... 45 Figure 15: Duval County District 11 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units .................................... 46 Figure 16: Duval County District 12 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units .................................... 47 Figure 17: Duval County District 13 and 14 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units......................... 48 Figure 18: City of Jacksonville Future Land Use Map................................................................................................................. 49 Figure 19: Duval County DRI Locations ...................................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 20: Duval County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment .................................... 58 Figure 21: St. John's County Municipal Boundaries ................................................................................................................... 61 Figure 22: St. John's County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ................................................ 62 Figure 23: St. John's County DRIs ............................................................................................................................................... 68 Figure 24: St. Johnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment .............................. 69 Figure 25: Clay County Municipal Boundaries ........................................................................................................................... 71 Figure 26: Clay County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ........................................................ 72 Figure 27: Clay County DRI's and Master Plans ......................................................................................................................... 74 Figure 28: Clay County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment....................................... 79 Figure 29: Baker County Municipal Boundaries......................................................................................................................... 81 Figure 30: Baker County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................................... 82 Figure 31: Baker County Inset Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ............................................. 83 Figure 32: Baker County TAZ 2402 ............................................................................................................................................. 85 Figure 33: Baker County Parcel Data for TAZ 2402 .................................................................................................................... 86 Figure 34: Baker County 2040 School Enrollment Projections based on 2010 Ratio ................................................................ 91 Figure 35: Putnam County Municipal Boundaries ..................................................................................................................... 93 Figure 36: Putnam County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Block with Vacant Units .................................................... 94 Figure 37: Palatka Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units................................................................ 95 Figure 38: Putnam County TAZ Locations of Possible Future Growth ....................................................................................... 96 Figure 39: City of Palatka TAZ Locations of Possible Future Growth ......................................................................................... 98 Figure 40: Putnam County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment ............................... 101

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

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Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

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1. INTRODUCTION

Land use is what drives our need to travel and is therefore an extremely important input into the transportation planning process. Land use development decisions are made at the local level but the effects of these decisions can be seen in the regional travel patterns. The coordination between the local communities is important so that the growth pattern is beneficial for the area as a whole and not done in a vacuum. Figure 1 show the six county study area for which socioeconomic data was collected. Representing the correct vision in the data set allows the North Florida TPO to measure the effect of the development patterns on the regional transportation system. The data development process described in this technical memorandum applies to the input data sets for the year 2040 Trend Scenario socio-economic data set and the year 2040 Alternate Scenario socio-economic data set. The Trend refers to the continuation of the current development patterns as documented in Comprehensive Plans, Evaluation and Appraisal Report (EARs) and visually represented on the Future Land Use Maps (FLUM). The Alternate year 2040 socio-economic data reflects the desired changes in land use patterns (changing travel patterns), which local governments would like to see implemented in an effort to relieve roadway congestion problems caused by the increase in population and intensification of development. The process of data projection starts with setting the control totals for the permanent residents. The employment and school enrollment files are created once control totals for population are established. Both scenarios use the University of Florida, Bureau of Economic Business and Research (BEBR) 2040 medium population projections for the county. The control total by county is used to calculate the number of dwelling units that need to be built to accommodate the countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth in population. The placement and densities of the housing units are directed by the residential land use categories as established in the FLUM. In previous transportation models used by the North Florida TPO, the trip rates were based on a crossclassification matrix which stratified the trip rates by type of dwelling unit and household characteristics such as number of people per dwelling unit and number of automobiles per dwelling unit. Based on this cross classification, a trip rate was selected for the dwelling units within a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) and the daily average number of trips was calculated based on these input variables. The transportation model used in the year 2040 LRTP, the North East Florida Regional Planning Model â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Activity Based (NERPM-AB), no longer selects a trip rate based on cross classification. It assigns travel patterns to households and the individuals within the household. Actual number of dwelling units, types of dwelling units, whether or not they are occupied is no longer needed as input data. The input data is based on the many characteristics of the household and the individual. It is reasonable to assume that every household lives in a housing unit; however the data set does not keep tract of the units, only the households. The household characteristics are obtained from the 2010 Census data and the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) which is a subsample of the American Community Survey (ACS) data. Characteristics that are part of the NERPM-AB input data set are the number of individuals per household, age of the head of the household, number of workers per household, income level of the household, number of households with children versus no children, and the age of the individuals in the household. Automobile availability is also used and is obtained through the use of an

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

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2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 1 - North Florida TPO NERPM-AB Six County Study Area 2

10,560 Feet

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9 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

automobile estimation model rather than provided as direct input. The automobile availability model is discussed in the validation report. The employment and school enrollment NERPM-AB data files require more detailed information as well. On the employment side, these changes are mainly related to the number of employment sectors that are identified in the input data file, and the school enrollment is stratified by type of school. The 2010 household data sets are projected to 2040 using the year 2010 Census Data and the 2010 Property Appraisers Data. The U.S. Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and BEBR are the basis for the employment data projections. The school enrollment projections are based on data obtained from the Department of Education, countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s school boards and colleges and universities. All forecasts were closely coordinated with the local governments.

ORGANIZATION OF THIS DOCUMENT This technical memorandum first discusses the overall data development process. Secondly, it discusses the coordination process with the local governments in order to obtain their insights into the expected/proposed development patterns. The third point of discussion is the approved development in each of the counties and finally the additional growth added to the areas. In some instances, the approved developments provided enough housing units to accommodate the 2040 population. In other instances additional growth had to be assumed.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

2. YEAR 2040 DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

The NERPM-AB requires five distinct socio-economic data input files. These files contain information concerning the permanent residents; group quarters residents (e.g. nursing homes, jails, and dormitories), seasonal residents, employment and school enrollment. In the absence of a land use model, the typical process followed in the long-range planning process in Florida is to use the medium population projections developed by BEBR for the counties totals and distribute the total to the appropriate TAZ within the counties. All other socio-economic data files have logical relationships to these population totals. A significant growth in school enrollment or employment cannot be projected if there is no significant growth in the population. Since the NERPM-AB not only requires projections of the totals but also makes assumptions about the age groups within the population, all socio-economic data input files need to “correspond” with the population projections. Although the employment total is related to the population totals, other data sources such as the BEA, the employment estimates from BEBR are typically reviewed to predict a reasonable employment control total. Employment growth in certain sectors follows population growth but other economic factors also influence the employment growth pattern. These economic patterns are reflected in the BEA data. Since the population projections form the basis of all the socio-economic data input files, the method used to project the population is discussed first, followed by the employment projections and the school enrollment projections.

DATA COMPARISON – YEAR 2035 AND 2040 At the Steering Committee meeting held on June 13, 2013 the preliminary methodology to forecast the future year population was discussed. At the meeting, members were informed that the NERPM-AB necessitates the location of households at the parcel level. On Table 1, population totals are shown for the base year (year 2005) and the current base year (year 2010) for the LRTP. The other totals shown are the two sets of year 2035 projections used for the previous LRTP; these were a Trend Scenario and an Alternate Scenario. Counties on Table 1 are ordered as they are in the travel demand model. The other columns reflect the BEBR medium population projections for the years 2035 and 2040. As illustrated on Table 1, the 2040 population forecast developed by BEBR is lower for 2040 (1,999,400) than the year 2035 population forecasts (2,030,000) used for the previous LRTP. Table 2 summarizes the population totals by county for the NERPM-AB. The table shows that the total growth for the total study area is 40.9% over the 30-year period. This equates to a 1.4 % annual population growth rate. The county with the highest annual population growth rate is St. John’s (3.3%). Clay population follows with an annual population growth rate of 2.2%. The two counties with the slowest annual population growth rates are Duval (0.8) and Putnam (.02%), and Baker is expected to grow at a rate of 1.5% a year and Nassau at a rate of 2.0% a year.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

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Table 1: Comparison Population Projections Year 2035 and 2040

County

Nassau

2035 LRTP Year 2005

2040 LRTP Year 2010

2035 LRTP Year 2035 Trend Scenario

2035 LRTP Year 2035 Alternate Scenario

BEBR Population Medium Estimates Year 2035 *

BEBR Population Medium Estimates Year 2040 **

Difference BEBR 2040-2035

67,681

73,314

110,192

126,238

111,500

116,700

5,200

Duval

855,572

864,278

1,276,410

1,247,857

1,169,700

1,071,600

-98,100

St. Johns

157,918

189,396

344,117

322,895

342,800

377,000

34,200

Clay

181,624

190,865

359,526

275,649

290,800

315,700

24,900

Baker

23,952

27,115

36,096

34,600

39,000

4,400

Putnam

73,756

74,364

88,465

87,496

80,600

79,400

-1,200

1,999,400

-30,600

Totals 1,360,503 1,419,332 2,214,806 2,096,231 2,030,000 * Florida Statistical Abstract 2010 Table 1.41 ** http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/content/florida-county-population-projections FPS 162 Revised.xlsx

Table 2: Year 2010 and 2040 Population Totals by County

County

Nassau

NERPM-AB Year 2010 Total Population living in Households

NERPM-AB Year 2010 Total Population living in Group Quarters

BEBR Population Medium Estimates Year 2040

NERPM-AB Year 2010 Total Population

Growth in Numbers 2040-2010

Growth Rate

Annual Growth Rate

72,771

543

73,314

116,700

43,386

59.2%

2.0%

Duval

844,293

19,985

864,278

1,071,600

207,322

24.0%

0.8%

St. Johns

186,598

2,798

189,396

377,000

187,604

99.1%

3.3%

Clay

189,614

1,251

190,865

315,700

124,835

65.4%

2.2%

Baker

24,771

2,344

27,115

39,000

11,885

43.8%

1.5%

Putnam

72,957

1,407

74,364

79,400

5,036

6.8%

0.2%

1,391,004

28,328

1,419,332

1,999,400

580,068

40.9%

1.4%

Totals

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

As illustrated in Table 2, the population in the NERPM-AB is classified as living in a household or group quarter. As noted earlier, “group quarters” can be a school dormitory, barracks at a military installation, nursing homes, jails, etc. The group quarters population has different travel characteristics than the household population and is therefore treated differently in NERPM-AB. The input data for the population living in group quarters is categorized by age and gender, and the household population is categorized by the following groups: • • • • • • •

Number of Persons in Household Age Group of Head of Household Children or no Children in Household Income Level of Household Number of Workers in Household Gender of Persons in Household Age Group of Persons in Households

Another population group that is identified in the NERPM-AB is seasonal population. This group is generally identified as a percentage of seasonal households within a particular parcel. The year 2010 data is based on the year 2010 Census Data and the PUMS data. The base year 2010 socioeconomic data files were developed by the North Florida TPO. No changes were made to the year 2010 data.

COORDINATION After the population control totals were established a coordination effort was initiated. Within the six-county study area there are twenty-eight local governments. Listed below are the counties and the municipalities within them. •

•

Nassau o Callahan o Fernandina Beach o Hilliard Duval o Atlantic Beach o Baldwin o Jacksonville Beach o Neptune Beach St. John’s o Hastings o Marineland o St. Augustine o St. Augustine Beach Clay o Green Cove Springs o Keystone Heights o Orange Park o Penney Farms Baker o Glen St. Mary

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

â&#x20AC;˘

o Macclenney Putnam o Crescent City o Interlachen o Palatka o Pomona Park o Welaka

Each of the county governments and municipalities were contacted to arrange meetings to discuss the LRTP and the socio-economic data. Twenty-one of the local governments were able to meet in person, and six (Macclenney, Glen St. Mary, Penney Farms, Pomona Park, Baldwin, Marineland) were able to communicate through email and phone calls. Only one of the local governments did not respond (Welaka). During the meetings with the local governments, we obtained agreement on the use of the BEBR year 2040 medium population projections, information regarding the current and future growth patterns within the communities, and the major issues related to growth and the transportation system in the area. The input received from the local government was used as a guideline in calculating the year 2040 population and employment projections by parcel. Meeting summaries were developed and are included in Appendix A of this document.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

3. YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS METHODOLOGY Whereas some of the municipalities within the study area are nearing build out (Fernandina Beach, Jacksonville Beach, Neptune Beach, St. Augustine Beach, and City of St. Augustine), an inventory of the vacant residential parcels and vacancy rates of the existing housing stock was performed. The vacant residential parcels were assumed to develop first, unless other information was obtained from the local governments. To identify the vacant residential parcels the year 2010 parcel data was obtained from the Florida Department of Revenue and the County Property Appraiser Office and the vacant residential parcels (Land Use Code 000) were identified. Due to the recent down turn in the economy, the numbers of vacant units by census block were also identified. This data was obtained from the year 2010 Census data. As illustrated on see Figure 2, there are 35 districts within NERPM-AB. Table 3 identifies the number of vacant residential parcels and the number of vacant housing units summarized by district. The districts listed in Table 3 are developed by the local governments. According to the 2010 Census, 13% or 82,272 of the housing units within the six county area are vacant. The county with the highest vacancy rate is Putnam County with a reported 21%. The Counties with the lowest vacancy rates are Baker and Clay counties with 9%. The last three columns in Table 3 summarize the vacant residential parcels in both number and in area. For the more rural areas this information is not as pertinent because they are able to change land use from timberland or agricultural to residential. In the urbanized sections of the study area, the beaches communities for example, there are few undeveloped parcels remaining. The information identified in Table 3 is presented in a map for each of the counties. The information shown on the tables and maps were discussed with the local governments and were used to identify the locations of currently approved developments and to identify the most likely locations of future development. In addition to the 2010 parcel data and the 2010 Census data information sources, the base year 2010 socioeconomic data, the FLUM, and input directly received from the local governments were used to develop the 2040 population projections. All the projections are aggregated to the TAZ level for review; however they are developed at the parcel level. This is necessary because the data used in the NERPM-AB are disaggregated to the parcel level by the Population Generator (PopGen) program. This program synthesizes the population to the characteristics identified in the Census and PUMS data sources and allocates it to a household/parcel and individual level. Since the data is to be assigned to the household/parcel level, it is important to base the projections on parcel data to ensure that any future projections for the TAZs can actually geographically fit within the TAZ. To do that, the parcel data was used to allocate the approved development and additional future growth. The application of the PopGen program is discussed in the Validation Report and in the Users Guide.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

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¬ «

301

441

25A

309

" ) 308

502

200

" )

200A

200

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 2 - Study Area District Map 9

10,560 Feet

4.5

9 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 3: Year 2010 Vacant Residential Parcels and Vacant Housing Units Location

2010 Parcel and Household Units Data Census 2010 Total Units

Census 2010 Occupied Units

2010 Census Vacant Units

Vacant Units Divided by Total Units

2010 Number of Vacant Residential Parcels (1)

2010 Area of Vacant Residential Parcels in Acres

Total Area Divided by Number of Parcels

District

District Number

Nassau

Fernandina

13,721

9,351

4,370

32%

1,973

964

0.49

Nassau

Yulee

10,805

9,772

1,033

10%

3,880

29,527

7.61

Nassau

Hilliard

3,668

3,353

315

1,358

4,073

3.00

Nassau Nassau Total

Callahan

6,834

6,337

497

1,867

11,477

6.15

35,028

28,813

6,215

18%

9,078

46,042

5.07

County

Duval

Northside

29,700

26,808

2,892

10%

4,757

5,200

1.09

Duval

83,155

73,975

9,180

11%

2,014

1,509

0.75

5,821

5,191

630

11%

145

0.28

3,493

3,192

301

0.33

Duval

Arlington Atlantic Beach Neptune Beach Jacksonville Beach

11,882

10,040

1,842

16%

490

143

0.29

Duval

Southside

110,325

99,962

10,363

3,433

2,496

0.73

Duval

Downtown Westside (North)

18,597

14,026

4,571

25%

2,486

281

0.11

57,777

49,715

8,062

14%

5,565

3,698

0.66

Baldwin Westside (South)

636

568

11%

152

101

0.67

67,164

59,032

8,132

12%

3,608

2,847

0.79

388,550

342,509

46,041

12%

22,733

16,344

0.72

13,969

12,083

1,886

14%

1,307

866

0.66

3,056

2,214

842

28%

1,064

429

0.40

Duval Duval

Duval Duval Duval Duval Total St. John’s St. John’s St. John’s

Ponte Vedra Coastline Vilano Nocatee Golf Village

8,920

7,639

1,281

14%

4,756

2,650

0.56

12,513

11,847

666

2,252

946

0.42

10,587

9,435

1,152

11%

2,692

2,207

0.82

St. John’s

Fruit Cove West St. John’s County Coast line Crescent Beach

15,064

9,755

5,309

35%

2,062

563

0.27

St. John’s

Matanzas

20,647

17,952

2,695

13%

7,102

3,245

0.46

St. John’s St. John’s

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 3: Year 2010 Vacant Residential Parcels and Vacant Housing Units Continued Location

County

St. John’s St. John’s Total Clay Clay Clay Clay Clay Clay Clay Clay Clay Clay Clay

District

Hastings

Orange Park BellairMeadowbrook Fleming Island Oakleaf Plantation Middleburg-Clay Hill Keystone Heights Penney Farms Asbury Lake Green Cove Springs South West Keystone Heights City

Grand Total

2010 Number of Vacant Residential Parcels (1)

2010 Area of Vacant Residential Parcels in Acres

Total Area Divided by Number of Parcels

Census 2010 Total Units

Census 2010 Occupied Units

2010 Census Vacant Units

Vacant Units Divided by Total Units

5,110

4,445

665

13%

7,020

6,785

0.97

89,866

75,370

14,496

16%

28,255

17,690

0.63

3,997

3,574

423

11%

119

0.75

7,199

6,589

610

0.68

10,440

9,821

619

367

273

0.74

27,105

25,002

2,103

2,981

1,384

0.46

7,091

6,504

587

1,218

2,258

1.85

321

194

127

40%

0.91

5,445

5,021

424

906

1,007

1.11

3,142

2,836

306

10%

596

1,087

1.82

3,045

2,683

362

12%

575

363

0.63

7,046

5,988

1,058

15%

4,354

7,137

1.64

503

445

12%

0.45

75,334

68,657

6,677

11,294

13,722

1.22

9,687

8,772

915

2,289

5,341

2.33

37,337

29,409

7,928

21%

53,757

26,841

0.50

635,802

553,530

82,272

13%

127,406

125,980

0.99

District Number

Clay Total Baker Total Putnam Total

2010 Parcel and Household Units Data

1. Department of Revenue Parcel Data Land Use Code = 000

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

APPROVED DEVELOPMENT The first step was to work with the local governments to identify residential development that is approved but not yet build. The number of housing units associated with the residential developments is typically provided by the local governments. If the counties were unable to provide the status of build out, the numbers were checked against the parcel data and aerial photographs. Additional checks and calculations that needed to be made were related to the TAZ boundaries. The TAZ boundaries do not always match those of the Development of Regional Impact (DRI). This inconsistency necessitates the calculation of the parcel size associated with the DRI to ensure that the appropriate geographical area within the TAZ is used for the DRI. In addition to identifying approved development, the likelihood of a reduction of vacancy rates was discussed. Several of the local government requested a reduction in the vacancy rate, assuming it was higher than usual due to the economic downturn.

GROUP QUARTER AND SEASONAL POPULATION The group quarter and seasonal population projections were based on input received from the local governments. Due to the lack of available data sources, it was decided to keep the assumptions for 2040 the same as in 2010 unless specific changes were provided by the local governments. Clay and Duval counties identified the development of new nursing homes. The City of St. Augustine discussed an increase in seasonal housing units in the downtown area but no specific information was provided and no changes were made to the dataset.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

4. YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS METHODOLOGY As noted earlier, when developing employment projections it is important to maintain a logical and reasonable relationship with population. Table 4 illustrates the relationship between 2010 population living in households by county and the total number of employees by county. Table 4: Year 2010 Employment Distribution Compared to Population Distribution by County

County

Nassau Duval St Johns Clay Baker Putnam Total

Total 2010 Population living in Households

NERPM Year 2010 Total Workers

Year 2010 Percentage of Workers related to Total County Population living in Households

Year 2010 Percentage of Workers related to Total Study Area Population living in Households

72,771 844,293 186,598 189,614 24,771 72,957

24,126 519,142 61,714 54,454 7,396 25,148

33% 61% 33% 29% 30% 34%

2% 37% 4% 4% 1% 2%

1,391,004

691,980

50%

It should also be noted that in 2010 50% of the population of households in the region are workers, with Duval County having the highest percentage of workers per household. In the earlier four-step NERPM the accuracy of the employment projections was important because attractions were generated by this data and adjusted to match productions generated by the household data. In the NERPM-AB, this adjustment will not take place and the actual number of employees is “matched” with the workers per households and the individual workers in the household themselves, based on the PUMS data. The North Florida TPO developed the 2010 employment data and no changes were made to the 2010 base year data. The 2010 data set was developed using a combination of BEBR and the BEA data sources (see Table 5). The BEBR, the BEA and the Info Group business data were analyzed to develop 2040 control totals for the counties. Table 5 shows totals by county. The difference between the BEA and BEBR is primarily related to a different reporting methodology, the BEBR is based on wage and salary employment, also referred to as wage and salary jobs, and measures the average annual number of full-time and part-time jobs in each area by place-of-work. All jobs for which wages and salaries are paid are counted. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted with equal weight. The BEA employment series for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, fulltime plus part-time, by place-of-work. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted at equal weight. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included. The employment estimates are designed to be consistent with the estimates of wage and salary disbursements and proprietor’s income that are calculated part of the personal

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 5: Year 2010 Employment Data Sources County Nassau

Year 2010 Employment Totals NERPM-AB

BEBR

Year 2013 BEA

Info Group

24,126

18,919

26,561

24,767

519,142

484,350

612,268

517,756

St. Johns

61,714

57,880

71,959

82,613

Clay

54,454

45,894

62,898

58,714

7,150

9,317

8,872

25,148

19,074

22,227

23,338

Duval

Baker Putnam

Total 691,734 633,267 805,230 716,060 1. NERPM-AB data was developed by the North Florida TPO 2. University of Florida, Bureau of Business and Research data was obtained from http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/data/series/annual/411/table 3. Bureau of Economic Analysis data Tables listing full-time and part-time employment by SIC Industry obtained from http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1#reqid=70&step=1&isuri=1 4. Year 2013 InfoGroup business data obtained from the North Florida TPO

income series. The Info Group data is developed by a private company and is based on surveys. The NERPM-AB 2010 data used the BEBR and BEA sources in their development and was a combination of the two. The Info Group data was received too late to be used in the development of the 2010 data set. After analyzing the employment growth patterns of the last three decades using the BEA data source, it was determined that the growth during the last decade represented the most realistic growth pattern to apply to future projections. Table 6 and Table 7 illustrate the growth rates over a 5-year period within the decade. The growth rate from the decade, as illustrated in Table 8, was 9.53% with an annual growth rate of 0.95%. The county with the highest employment growth rate is St. Johns with an annual growth rate of 3.69 % second is Baker with 2.73%, third Nassau with 1.74%, fourth is Clay with 1.59%, and Duval shows a 0.63% increase and Putnam County a negative annual growth rate of -0.06%.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 6: BEA 2000 and 2005 Employment Data – Growth Rate Year 2000 - 2005 Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment Data County 2000

Growth in Numbers

2005

Growth Rate

Annual Growth Rate

Nassau Duval St Johns Clay Baker Putnam

22,624 576,067 52,566 54,258 7,320 22,356

25,706 620,337 67,123 59,440 9,125 23,388

3,082 44,270 14,557 5,182 1,805 1,032

13.62% 7.68% 27.69% 9.55% 24.66% 4.62%

2.72% 1.54% 5.54% 1.91% 4.93% 0.92%

Total

735,191

805,119

69,928

9.51%

1.90%

Table 7: BEBR 2005 and 2010 Employment Data – Growth Rate Year 2005 - 2010 Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment Data County 2005 Nassau Duval

Growth in Numbers

2010

Growth Rate

Annual Growth Rate

25,706

26,561

855

0.03

0.01

620,337

612,268

-8,069

-0.01

0.00

St Johns

67,123

71,959

4,836

0.07

0.01

Clay

59,440

62,898

3,458

0.06

0.01

9,125

9,317

192

0.02

0.00

23,388

22,227

-1,161

-0.05

-0.01

805,119

805,230

111

0.00

Baker Putnam Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 8: BEA Year 2000 and 2010 Employment Data Year 2000 - 2010 Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment Data County 2000

2010

Growth in Numbers

Growth Rate

Annual Growth Rate

Nassau Duval St Johns Clay Baker Putnam

22,624 576,067 52,566 54,258 7,320 22,356

26,561 612,268 71,959 62,898 9,317 22,227

3,937 36,201 19,393 8,640 1,997 -129

17.40% 6.28% 36.89% 15.92% 27.28% -0.58%

1.74% 0.63% 3.69% 1.59% 2.73% -0.06%

Total

735,191

805,230

70,039

9.53%

0.95%

If we apply the annual growth rates as reflected in Table 8 to the year 2010 employment numbers (Table 9), we obtain a total employment number of 988,226 for the six county area. Table 9 shows the 2040 employment forecast applying the BEA growth rate to the 2010 BEA employment totals. To insure that employment growth in this dataset occurs logically, we need to go back and examine the relationship between population and employment in the 2010 dataset. Table 9: Year 2040 Employment Estimates based on BEA County Nassau Duval

Year 2010 NERPM-AB Year 2010 Workers

Year 2040 Projected Workers based on BEA Compounded Annual Growth Rata

Annual Growth Rate *

24,126

40,661

1.74%

519,142

627,144

0.63%

St. John's

61,714

186,691

3.69%

Clay

54,454

87,737

1.59%

7,396

16,775

2.73%

25,148

29,218

-0.06%

691,980

988,226

0.95%

Baker Putnam Total

* Growth rate for Putnam County is adjusted to 0.05%

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Comparing Table 4 (showing the 2010 population in relationship with the 2010 employment), with the employment projections based on the BEA data (Table 9) reflecting the economic and development trend as it has been occurring over the last decade, it is evident that the relationship is skewed. These two data sources are compared in Table 10. In Table 10 it can be seen that Duval, Clay and Baker counties are not unreasonable. However, if only the BEA trend is used, the 203% growth rate for employment in St. Johnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s County corresponds to a 101% population growth rate and in Baker County a 127% employment growth rate with a 48% population growth rate. As the counties are focusing on ways to increase the employment within their boundaries, it is not realistic to assume that current commuting pattern into and out of Duval County will be the same in 2040. Since employment projections carry a high degree of uncertainty with them, a combination of both sources (BEA and population growth pattern) was used. To normalize the relationship between the population and employment projections, an average, based on the two sets of employment numbers as shown in Table 11 was used. The average is based on the employment projection solely based on the population growth and the employment projection based on BEA data trends. The final employment projections are shown in Table 12. Table 10: Year 2040 Employment Projections and Population in Households County Nassau Duval St Johns Clay Baker Putnam Total

72,771 844,293 186,598 189,614 24,771 72,957

116,159 1,050,684 374,207 314,010 36,657 77,991

Population Growth Rate 2010 - 2040 60% 25% 101% 66% 48% 7%

1,391,004

1,969,708

42%

Total 2010 Population in HH

Total 2040 Population in HH

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

24,126 519,142 61,714 54,454 7,396 25,148

40,661 627,144 186,691 87,737 16,775 29,218

Workers Growth Rate 2010 - 2040 69% 21% 203% 61% 127% 16%

691,980

988,226

43%

Total 2010 Workers

Total 2040 Workers

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 11: Year 2040 Population and Year 2040 BEA Employment Estimates Comparison County

Year 2010 Population living in HH

Year 2040 Population living in HH

Year 2010 NERPMAB Total Workers

Year 2040 Estimated Workers based on NERPM-AB Population Data A

Year 2040 Estimated Workers based on BEA Trend B

Nassau

72,771

116,159

24,126

38,511

Duval

844,293

1,050,684

519,142

St Johns

186,598

374,207

Clay

189,614

Baker Putnam

Year 2010 Percentage of Workers related to Population living in HH by County

Year 2040 Percentage of Workers related to Population living in HH by County A

Year 2040 Percentage of Workers related to Population living in HH by County B

40,661

33%

35%

646,048

627,144

61%

60%

61,714

123,762

186,691

33%

50%

314,010

54,454

90,178

87,737

29%

28%

24,771

36,657

7,396

10,945

16,775

30%

46%

72,957

77,991

25,148

26,883

29,218

34%

37%

Total 1,391,004 1,969,708 691,980 936,328 988,226 A = Number of workers based on percent workers of total county population B = Number of workers based on annual growth based on BEA data

50%

48%

50%

Table 12: NERPM-AB Year 2010 and 2040 Population and Employment Control Totals County Nassau Duval St Johns Clay Baker Putnam

Year 2010 Population living in Households 72,771 844,293 186,598 189,614 24,771 72,957

Year 2040 Population living in Households 116,159 1,050,684 374,207 314,010 36,657 77,991

Population Growth Rate 2010 -2040 60% 24% 101% 66% 48% 7%

Year 2010 NERPM-AB Total Workers 24,126 519,142 61,714 54,454 7,396 25,148

Year 2040 Estimated Workers * 39,586 636,596 155,227 88,958 13,860 28,051

Workers Growth Rate 2010 -2040 64% 23% 152% 64% 87% 21%

Total 1,391,004 1,969,708 42% 691,980 962,278 * Average between BEA 10 year growth rate (2000-2010) and NERPM-AB growth rate of population year 2040.

39%

In the four-step NERPM model employment data was segregated into four sectors are follows: Light Industrial, Heavy Industrial, Commercial and Service. The NERPM-AB identifies twenty different sectors. A detailed description of each of the sectors can be found at http://www.naics.com/search.htm Table 13 lists the sectors identified in the employment data set. In Table 13 the sectors are organized by the three main categories of employment: Industrial, Commercial and Service. This grouping was needed to place the approved development data into the appropriate sector. The approved development data received by the local governments is in most cases identified by the three main groupings and not by the specific sector.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 13: NERPM-AB Employment Sectors NAICS*

Industrial Sector

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

Construction

31-33

Manufacturing

48-49

Transportation and Warehousing Commercial Sector

Utilities

Wholesale Trade

44-45 72

Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Service Sector

Information

Finance and Insurance

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

55 56

Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

Educational Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Other Services (except Public Administration)

99 Public Administration * North American Industry Classification System

Table 14 shows the year 2010 and the forecasted 2040 employment data by sector. The largest employment sector is Retail Trade (12.57%), followed by the Health Care and Social Assistance employment sector (11.22%). The Accommodation and Food Services and Public Administration sectors both account for about 9% of the employment. Of the three major sectors, the service sector employs 55.83% of the workers, the commercial sector 29.05% of the workers, and the industrial sector employs 15.12% of the workers. Table 15 shows the distribution among the different sectors of the year 2010 data, and Table 16 lists the same information for the year 2040.

APPROVED DEVELOPMENT As with the population data, the geographic placement of the employment data took into account the available land area. These available land area calculations were restricted to the approved development areas. Since redevelopment is more common for service and commercial sites, the employment growth (other than for the approved developments) was assumed to occur at their current locations and current employment sector.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 14: Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sectors Employment Sectors

NAICS* 11 21 23 31-33 48-49

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Construction Manufacturing Transportation and Warehousing

Sub Total 22 42 44-45 72

Industrial Sector

Sub Total 51 52 53 54 55

Commercial Sector

56 61 62 71 81 99 Sub Total

Year 2010

Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration

Service Sector

Total

Year 2040

Percent of Total

2,080 420 51,998 47,509 27,083

4,341 517 77,230 63,126 35,243

0.3% 0.1% 7.5% 6.9% 3.9%

129,090 1,937 26,443 90,336 61,204

180,457 2,473 34,991 120,934 85,846

18.7% 0.3% 3.8% 13.1% 8.8%

179,920 16,832 46,078 16,952 35,687 5,746

244,244 23,466 61,827 25,475 49,762 7,469

26.0% 2.4% 6.7% 2.4% 5.2% 0.8%

40,938 43,066 76,661 9,299 31,374 60,337

55,660 62,810 107,820 14,731 45,037 83,520

5.9% 6.2% 11.1% 1.3% 4.5% 8.7%

382,970

537,577

55.3%

691,980

962,278

100.0%

The distribution of employment by sector is kept constant for the year 2040 with exception of the DRIs, which are not reflected in Table 14. The DRI development is incorporated on a per county basis and is handled differently in the Trend versus the Alternate Scenario. The Trend Scenario is based on the current relationship that exists between the counties distribution of population and employment as discussed previously. In the Trend Scenario the employment data identified in the DRI is added to match the calculated employment control total for the county as listed in Table 12, with the effect that the DRI employment only alters the distribution within the sectors. In the Alternate Scenario all employment identified by the different DRIs is added to the year 2040 dataset, which alters not only the distribution in employment related to the sectors but also the population employment ratio in the study area.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 15: Year 2010 Employment by Sector by County Employment Sectors Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

Year 2010 Baker

Clay

Duval

551

Nassau

Putnam

St. Johns

351

501

531

Total 2,080

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

276

420

Utilities

619

376

753

1,937

Construction

545

4,637

39,403

1,582

1,927

3,904

51,998

Manufacturing

171

1,546

39,670

1,027

2,837

2,258

47,509

Wholesale Trade

671

1,480

20,322

414

774

2,782

26,443

1,112

11,450

61,371

3,329

3,223

9,851

90,336

Transportation and Warehousing

247

956

24,412

388

409

671

27,083

Information

599

859

13,882

201

211

1,080

16,832

Finance and Insurance

175

1,244

41,546

616

601

1,896

46,078

1,504

11,509

665

408

2,783

16,952

220

2,260

28,713

868

1,236

2,390

35,687

177

5,425

5,746

Retail Trade

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

1,420

35,270

810

984

2,372

40,938

573

5,327

27,718

1,920

2,349

5,179

43,066

1,194

6,908

57,340

2,307

2,688

6,224

76,661

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

1,523

5,009

583

117

2,006

9,299

Accommodation and Food Services

539

6,240

38,919

4,390

1,403

9,713

61,204

Other Services (except Public Administration)

377

2,835

21,486

1,236

1,971

3,469

31,374

Public Administration

677

3,351

45,944

3,304

2,649

4,412

60,337

7,396

54,454

519,142

24,126

25,148

61,714

691,980

Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance

Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 16: Year 2040 Total Sector Employment by County Employment Sectors

Baker

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration Total

Clay

Duval

Year 2040 Nassau

Putnam

St. Johns

Total

129

207

633

1,486

560

1,326

4,341

315

517

2 1,020 321 1,265 2,083 464 1,123 329 155

863 12,455 4,152 2,062 15,951 2,636 1,318 1,907 2,306

433 45,140 45,455 23,285 70,362 27,982 17,836 53,425 14,766

123 6,632 4,344 524 4,194 1,644 244 741 801

826 2,148 3,166 851 3,533 825 231 656 448

226 9,835 5,688 7,004 24,811 1,692 2,714 4,769 6,999

2,473 77,230 63,126 34,991 120,934 35,243 23,466 61,827 25,475

412

3,462

37,481

1,044

1,351

6,012

49,762

273

6,914

214

7,469

153 1,074 2,237 113 1,007

2,176 8,165 10,477 2,334 8,694

45,319 35,652 73,825 6,418 44,615

974 2,305 2,770 703 5,529

1,077 2,574 2,946 126 1,537

5,961 13,040 15,565 5,037 24,464

55,660 62,810 107,820 14,731 85,846

704 1,269

4,344 5,135

27,617 59,123

1,486 3,964

2,161 2,917

8,725 11,112

45,037 83,520

13,860

88,958

636,596

39,586

28,051

155,227

962,278

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

5. YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS METHODOLOGY Unlike the earlier NERPM four step model, school enrollment data in the NERPM-AB separates the school enrollment data into three categories; kindergarten through 8th grade, 9th grade through 12th grade, and universities and colleges. As with the population and the employment data, the base year 2010 school enrollment data was developed by the North Florida TPO and no changes were made to the base year data set. As with the employment data, the school enrollment data is based on a logical relationship with the population data. In the NERPM-AB the population is stratified into the following age groups: less than 5, between 5 and 14, between 15 and 17, between 18 and 24, between 25 and 39, between 40 and 54, between 55 and 64, between 65 and 74 and over 75 years in age. The 2040 school enrollment projections were checked against the number of persons within the different age groups. For the kindergarten through 8th grade the age group of 5 through 14 was used, and for the 9th grade through 12th grade enrollment the age group of 15 through 17 was used as a guideline. It should be noted that the kindergarten starts at the age of 4, and high school continues through the age of 18, so the age groups are used as a guideline in projecting the school enrollment data and do not match exactly. Table 17 shows the relationship between the age groups in the 2010 base year data and the 2010 school enrollment data. The relationship between the population age groups and the school enrollment for the kindergarten through high school is maintained in the year 2040. Table 17: Year 2010 School Enrollment Data versus Age Group Data Florida Department of Education 2009-2010 Enrollment Numbers County

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th Grade thru 12th Grade

University and College

NERPM-AB Age Groups Total

5 thru 14 Years

15 thru 17 Years

Nassau Duval St. Johns Clay Baker Putnam

8,563 111,995 23,288 26,779 3,829 9,051

3,538 41,224 10,359 13,760 1,399 3,090

1,494 95,946 8,605 7,302 0 7,409

13,595 249,165 42,252 47,841 5,228 19,550

9,592 112,797 26,332 29,797 4,035 9,212

2,901 37,089 8,541 10,425 1,162 2,670

Total

183,505

73,370

120,756

377,631

191,765

62,788

To forecast 2040 school enrollment, a ratio is calculated using total 2010 age group and 2010 total enrollment data. This ratio is multiplied by the 2040 age group forecast as shown in Table 18. Subsequently, 2040 school enrollment county totals are divided and assigned to TAZs using the same relationship and student enrollment percentage in each TAZ for 2010. The relationship between 2010 school enrollment and age groups is kept the same as 2040. Unless specific information was provided by the School Board, the Florida Department of Education (FLDOE) or the County about new facilities, it was assumed that the increase of enrollment is addressed at existing facilities.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 18: Year 2040 School Enrollment Projections versus Age Group Projections County Nassau Duval St. Johns Clay Baker Putnam Total

Total

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade 13,389 141,606 49,317 40,947 5,576 9,757

9th Grade thru 12th Grade 5,584 52,601 24,151 21,095 2,037 3,339

University and College 1,805 114,890 10,875 8,057 0 9,014

20,779 309,092 84,343 70,100 7,614 22,108

260,592

108,807

144,641

514,036

NERPM-AB Age Groups 5 thru 14 15 thru 17 Years Years 14,998 4,579 142,620 47,325 55,763 19,913 45,562 15,982 5,876 1,692 9,931 2,885 274,750

92,376

At the TAZ, District and County level, 2040 Elementary, Middle School, High School and Universities/Colleges enrollment totals were checked against FLDOE, County School Board, and the 2010 base year data sources. FLDOE provided the following data: • • • • • •

Public School enrollment data from 2001 to 2012 Private School enrollment data from 2008 to 2009 Public Universities enrollment data from 1997 to 2013 Independent Colleges and Universities of Florida (ICUF) enrollment data from 2000 to 2012 Florida College System enrollment data from 2003 to 2018 Commission of Independent Education enrollment data from 2009 to 2012

County School Boards provided the following data: • • • • • • •

Clay 2013 to 2023 Public School forecast enrollment by school name Duval 2000 to 2020 Public School forecast enrollment by school name Duval Long Range Facility Master Plan (March 2007) Nassau 2013 to 2024 Public School enrollment by grade Nassau 2013 – 2014 5-year District Facilities Work Program St Johns 2013 – 2014 5-year District Facilities Work Program St Johns 2008 County School Concurrency, Public School Facilities Element Data and Analysis report

The School Boards in the six counties were contacted to obtain information on possible new school buildings. As a result, one new school was added in St. John’s County in the Twin Creeks DRI. The 2040 colleges and universities enrollment forecasts where not linked to the population data since these institutions have students who do not permanently reside within the study area. Instead, the 2009-2010 enrollment totals were compared with the additional enrollment numbers obtained from the different institutions. The Florida College System provided forecasts to the year 2019 for enrollment at the Florida State College Campuses and the St. Johns River College. The last year of enrollment data available for the University of North Florida, Flagler College, and Everest University, Florida Coastal School of Law, University of St. Augustine, and the independent colleges was 2012.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

In most of the cases the enrollment either decreased or remained the same. In light of the minimum increase of enrollment numbers and the development of on-line schooling for colleges and universities the forecasts are made in a conservative manner. The enrollment figures obtained for the last available year is increased by 1% in a compounded rate up to the year 2030 and assumed to be constant through the year 2040. If, due to the decrease in enrollment between the 2009-2010 enrollment and 2012-2013 enrollment figure, the 2040 projection resulted to be lower than the 2009-2010 numbers, the 2009-2010 enrollment numbers were used. Table 17 provides the numbers for 2010, and Table 18 provides the enrollment numbers for 2040.

REASONABLENESS CHECKS The first check made was to verify the number of schools within each TAZ against the TAZâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s enrollment numbers. This was done by comparing the FLDOE data against the 2010 base year school enrollment data by TAZ. GIS layers and aerials were used when there was a discrepancy. Next, 2010 number of persons in age group 5-14 was compared with elementary and middle school enrollment by county, and the 15-17 age group population was compared with high school enrollment data by county. This analysis was developed for each county and for each district. The 2040 school enrollment was checked to make sure school enrollment countywide did not exceed an average enrollment of 1,200 per school for both elementary and middle schools and the high school enrollment did not exceed 2,000 students per school. These limits were based on county wide totals.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

6. DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS BY COUNTY The process described above was used in the projections of the data for the six counties and the municipalities. The following sections discuss what particular changes were made in each of the counties and the municipalities within them.

NASSAU COUNTY NASSAU COUNTY YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS In 2010 Nassau County had a population of 73,314. According to BEBR’s medium population projection, the population in the year 2040 is expected to be 116,700 growing by 43,386 persons. This represents a growth rate of 59% and an annual growth rate of 2%. As shown on Figure 3, within Nassau County there are three municipalities. The 2010 Census data regarding population and persons per household (PHH) is as follows: Nassau County Town of Callahan Town of Hilliard City of Fernandina Beach

73,314 persons 1,123 persons 3,086 persons 11,487 persons

2.59 PHH 2.36 PHH 2.65 PHH 2.37 PHH

As noted on Table 3, Nassau County has 46,042 acres of vacant residential parcels, and the Census reported 18% of the housing units vacant. The vacancy rate in Nassau County is approximately 9%, excluding the City of Fernandina Beach. The City of Fernandina Beach has a high percentage of seasonal housing units, which is reflected in the vacancy rate of 32%. Figure 4 shows the locations of the vacant residential parcels in red and the vacant housing units in the pink colored census blocks. As requested by the Nassau County staff, the vacancy rate reported by the year 2010 Census was reduced by assigning 1,670 households to the vacant units. The reduction in vacancy rate was applied to TAZs with more than 10 housing units and a vacancy rate greater than 10%. The vacancy rate was reduced by half for those TAZs with the above mentioned characteristics. In total 29 TAZs were adjusted. Nassau County has a no shortage of developable parcels. Many of which are listed as timberland or other agricultural uses. The vacant residential parcels are primarily located in the East Nassau Community Planning Area (ENCPA), which has an approved development plan. In the City of Fernandina Beach the vacant residential parcels were used in the projection of future development (see Figure 5). Growth anticipated by the Fernandina Beach staff has been documented and can be found in Appendix A. The population projections are shown in Table 19. Both Callahan’s and Hilliard’s input are also documented in Appendix A and illustrated in Table 19.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

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Legend

Facility Type

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Divided Arterial

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TAZ Boundaries and Numbers

Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000

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2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 5 - Fernandina Beach Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

5,280 Feet

0.35

0.7 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Approved Development Most of Nassau County’s growth is expected to take place within the ENCPA. This area is located in TAZs 37, 39, 41, 42, 44, 46, 48, 52, 65 and 66 and is depicted in Figure 6. Based on input from the Nassau County staff, the following developments were added first: • • • • • •

The area of TAZs 46, 52, 65 and 66 is expected to add 2,000 single-family units. TAZ 37 is expected to add 600 single-family units. TAZ 55 (Three Rivers DRI) is permitted to build 3,200 units. TAZ 53 and 56 (Yulee Woods) 357 single-family units in TAZ 53 and 714 single-family units in TAZ 56. TAZ 54 includes an approved PUD add 115 single-family units. TAZ 17 add 100 single-family units.

Households were first assigned to the approved developments. Next the vacancy rate was reduced and lastly single-family units were assigned to vacant residential parcels based on the densities allowed by the FLUM. The assumed household size was 2.67 for the new development, which was based on the household size in Yulee Woods, a fairly recent development. As stated earlier, all three municipalities provided specific directions regarding the growth in the population and the number of housing units. These details are listed in the meeting summaries in Appendix A: Coordination, and the numbers are reflected in the 2040 population projections listed in Table 19.

Group Quarter and Seasonal Population In Nassau County the Year 2010 Census reported that 543 persons resided in group quarters. Group quarters population is included in the total population number of the 2040 BEBR projections. No specific information was provided by Nassau County regarding group quarter or seasonal population, so these numbers were kept constant.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 6 - Nassau County Future Land Use Map Date: 9/8/2014

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

3.5

7 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 19: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH)

District

TAZ

Municipality or Development

Year 2010 Population living in HH

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2

108 109 110 112 113 114 116 100 104 117 118 37 46 52 65 66 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 16 17 78 79 84 87 54 55 53 56

Callahan Callahan Callahan Callahan Callahan Callahan Callahan Callahan annex Callahan annex Callahan annex Callahan annex ENCPA ENCPA ENCPA ENCPA ENCPA Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach Fernandina Beach and Nassau Hilliard Hilliard Hilliard Hilliard PUD Three Rivers Yulee Woods Yulee Woods Remaining Area

100 118 28 72 186 19 417 1,112 1,744 646 917 2 46 1,329 64 7 225 1,582 88 508 718 168 1,267 874 1,020 1,219 1,210 1,906 1,058 566 672 72 368 571 3,677 1,707 3,810 1,853 40,825

Growth Population Year 2010 - 2040 in HH 104 63 0 17 25 11 49 455 1,106 554 295 2,054 3,029 1,504 2,451 2,228 0 0 167 217 181 66 421 33 103 289 170 208 200 329 103 0 194 900 2,894 8,343 953 1,899 11,797

72,771

43,412

Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

204 181 28 89 211 30 466 1,567 2,850 1,200 1,212 2,056 3,075 2,833 2,515 2,235 225 1,582 255 725 899 234 1,688 907 1,123 1,508 1,380 2,114 1,258 895 775 72 562 1,471 6,571 10,050 4,763 3,752 52,598

38 45 12 33 74 9 195 410 601 231 306 1 19 487 175 4 119 659 39 272 338 76 482 392 456 653 568 915 424 251 258 27 133 220 1,342 564 1,427 691 16,004

Growth HH Year 2010 2040 39 24 0 8 10 5 23 168 381 198 148 769 1,251 574 767 833 0 0 74 116 85 30 160 15 46 155 80 100 80 146 39 0 70 347 1,119 3,200 357 714 4,806

116,159

28,950

16,938

Year 2040 Population living in HH

Year 2010 Total HH

Year 2040 Total HH 77 69 12 41 84 14 218 578 982 429 454 770 1,270 1,061 942 837 119 659 113 388 423 106 642 407 502 808 648 1,015 504 397 297 27 203 567 2,461 3,764 1,784 1,405 20,810 45,888

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

NASSAU COUNTY YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology The employment projections in the year 2040 Trend Scenario were based on a combination of BEA trend analysis and population growth projections (see Table 11). The employment year 2040 control totals are listed in Table 12. The year 2040 employment control total for Nassau County is 39,586. This is an increase of 15,460 employees from the 24,126 employees listed in the base year 2010 data. The increase in employment during the 30-year period represents a growth rate of 64 % (2 % annual growth rate).

Approved Development The first step in allocating the employment growth was identification of the number of employees associated with the developments approved by the County. Table 20 lists the total number of employees for Nassau County by sector for the year 2010 and the year 2040 for both scenarios. The employees associated with approved development are listed in Table 21. The total number of employees associated with the approved development is 25,468 which is higher than the additional 15,460 employees needed to obtain the control total of 39,586. For the Trend Scenario the control total was maintained, and for the Alternate Scenario the total number of employees was added. By adding the 25,468 the population employment ratio will change in the future scenario and will increase from 0.34 to 0.43. The ENCPA identifies employment in the Industrial, Commercial and Service sectors. Vacant industrial, commercial and timberland parcels were identified in the TAZs located in the ENCPA and their area in acres was used to calculate the possibility of accommodating the expected employment in these zones. Table 21 shows the area of each vacant parcel in each TAZ, the assumed percentage of industrial development in a parcel and the number of employees in each TAZ. The number of employeesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; per acre calculation was based on the Business Park Land Use Section in Trip Generation, 7th edition. The numbers of available acres in the parcels were assessed and a total number of 25,468 employees were associated with the parcels within these TAZs. The distribution of the employees is shown in Table 21. In addition, Three Rivers Master Plan shows industrial and commercial development in TAZ 55. After identifying the development size, the number of employees was calculated similar to ENCPA. The number of employees was calculated using the same existing relationships between area and employees. An average size for offices is 200 to 325 square feet per employee and in retail and commercial 14 employees per acre. The number of available acres in the parcels was assessed and 379 employees were associated with the parcels within this TAZ. The Crawford Diamond Industrial Park, located in TAZ 115 has 10.5 million square feet associated with approved industrial development. Furthermore, the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Amelia Island will increase their rooms from 446 rooms to 1,000 rooms. Consequently it will create more employment. Therefore, this hotel was also considered in the employment calculations. To calculate the additional number of employees the ITE Trip Generation value of 0.90 employees per room was used and 499 employees were added to TAZ 20.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 20: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sector Employment Sectors

Year 2010

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

Year 2040 Trend

Alternate

351

1,486

2,217

Construction

1,582

6,632

9,994

Manufacturing

1,027

4,344

6,488

388

1,644

2,451

3,356

14,143

21,200

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

Transportation and Warehousing Industrial Sector-Subtotal Utilities

123

136

414

524

591

Retail Trade

3,329

4,194

4,749

Accommodation and Food Services

4,390

5,529

6,262

8,228

10,370

11,737

Wholesale Trade

Commercial Sector - Subtotal Information

201

244

267

Finance and Insurance

616

741

818

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

665

801

883

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

868

1,044

1,153

810

974

1,076

Educational Services

1,920

2,305

2,550

Health Care and Social Assistance

2,307

2,770

3,064

583

703

774

Other Services (except Public Administration)

1,236

1,486

1,642

Public Administration

3,304

3,964

4,388

12,542

15,073

16,657

24,126

39,586

49,594

Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Service Sector - Subtotal Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 21: Nassau County Year 2040 DRI Employment Estimate TAZ

Development Name

Development Area Acres

Ritz Amelia Island

East Nassau NPA

Year 2040 Approved Additional Employment Industrial Commercial Service Total 0

499

1.72

225

235

East Nassau Community Planning Area

80.35

7,738

1,658

11,054

East Nassau Community Planning Area

26.78

2,579

553

3,685

East Nassau Community Planning Area

53.57

5,159

1,105

7,370

Three Rivers

25.74

199

180

379

East Nassau SPA

0.57

115

Crawford Diamond Industrial Park

241.00

2,169

17,844

3,509

4,115

25,468

Total

NASSAU COUNTY YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology The reasonableness of the age group distribution of the base year school enrollment data was verified. Figure 7, illustrates the data in the base year 2010 NERPM-AB compared to the FLDOE data for relative age groups. Consistency is clearly demonstrated. The relationship between the school enrollment groups (kindergarten thru 8th and 9th thru 12th) and the population within the age group of base year data was used to forecast the school enrollment for the year 2040.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Figure 7: Nassau County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment

Table 22, lists the numbers associated with the enrollment projections for 2040 as well as the 2010 base year numbers.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 22: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data Florida Department of Education 2009-2010 Enrollment

Forecast 2040 Enrollment Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th thru 12th Grade

University Colleges

178

278

667

879

1,546

1,043

1,387

2,430

560

172

732

876

271

1,147

591

924

145

131

205

806

1,260

823

1,287

1,494

1,805

846

961

1,807

1,323

1,517

2,840

1,174

448

1,622

1,836

707

2,543

100

108

778

1,216

110

229

250

358

391

113

620

969

115

661

1,034

116

1,011

1,013

1,596

1,599

124

127

269

421

8,563

3,538

1,494

13,595

13,389

5,584

1,805

20,779

9th thru 12th Grade

District

TAZ

178

Total

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

University Colleges

Total

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

DUVAL COUNTY DUVAL COUNTY YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS As reported in the 2010 Census, the population of Duval County was 864,278. For 2040, the medium population projection is 1,071,600 adding a population of 207,322 resulting in a growth rate of 24% and an annual growth rate of 0.8%. In addition to the City of Jacksonville, Duval County includes three Beaches Communities and the Town of Baldwin. The four municipalities are shown in Figure 8. The 2010 Census data regarding population and persons per household (PHH) is as follows: Jacksonville Atlantic Beach Baldwin Jacksonville Beach Neptune Beach

821,784 persons 12,655 persons 1,425 persons 21,362 persons 7,037 persons

2.57 PHH 2.41 PHH 2.42 PHH 2.21 PHH 2.08 PHH

As shown on Table 3, Duval County has a total of 16,344 acres identified in the parcel data as vacant residential parcels, and the Census reported 12% of the housing units vacant. The City of Atlantic Beach has 41 acres of vacant residential parcels; the City of Neptune Beach has 27 acres of vacant residential parcels, and the City of Jacksonville Beach has 143 acres of vacant residential parcels. The vacancy rate in downtown Jacksonville is the highest, with 25% of the units vacant. Figure 9 through Figure 17 show the locations of the vacant residential parcels in red and the vacant housing units in the pink colored census blocks by District. The District boundaries are identified on Figure 2. The City of Jacksonville Beach requested a reduction in the vacancy rate of 35%, this reduction was applied to each TAZ within the municipalityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s boundary and added approximately 800 households.

Approved Development In the City of Jacksonville, the anticipated development was first allocated to the approved development and second to the vacant residential parcels. The densities were based on the allowable densities as listed on the FLUM (see Figure 18). The three beach communities provided specific directions regarding the growth in the population and the number of housing units. These details are listed in the meeting summaries in Appendix A: Coordination, and the numbers are reflected in the population projections for the year 2040 as listed in Table 23.

Group Quarter and Seasonal Population The people residing in households are counted separately from the persons residing in group quarters. In Duval County the Year 2010 Census reported that 19,985 persons resided in group quarters. The estimate of persons residing in group quarters is included in the 2040 population projection for the county developed by BEBR. In Duval County the Nocatee development is planning for a nursing home with a population of 180. The group quarters population was adjusted to 20,165 to reflect this change. The percentages associated with the seasonal population were kept the same.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

138

1 14

139

2 148

144

151

156

147

167

143

164

166

1902

159

153

154 1904 1909 150 1907206 1901 155 1913 1601916 158 162 161 165 168 169 1 170 172 173 175 171 183 78 17 176 1 163 181 178 8 185 2 190 1 7 1922 1914 1 86 9 9 194 184 1925 188 187 191189 782 783 786 787 785 198 1926 789 201 204 791792801 805798 800 202 790 205 203 79 813 5 809 818812 806 814 228 226 9 7 810 817 825 824816 822827 1938 230 22 22 231 826 835 232237 842 236 852 847 1900240 239 846 849 590 235 1941247 233 841858 855 797 241 862595 857589 600 245 2441942 860 863 865 872 260 255 353 1953 1949 608 620 617618 252 266 870 877 869 1952 263 881 355 356 258 269 893 890 883 882 887899876 885 631 636637 272 273 892 1950 895 6 635 89 903 900 285 271280279276 278 277357360 910916 914901 725 905 908 253 906 281289 902 292 744 294 5 923 922 295 919 767 98 924 372 369370 921 926 300 409 408 307 314297313 302 1983 949 932 306 989 2 986 94 373382 939 990 941940 951 943 418 992 996 311 320 308 1994 1989 956 334 310 385384383 9991003 323 305 424421 420 315 325333321 955 957 958 1011 1010 387 335 316 330 1014 10181016 447 431 426 438436 390 4 1007 432446 435445444 442 3 1015 434 0 7 451 394395 441 44 439 449 1028 1025 10371 454 462 453455 461 026 2321 398 2028465 5682022 226010481045 1050 1039 469 467 468 399 401 1053 466 1052 104 472 479 1059 10541060 2101 480485 3 564 2036 402 400 2004 106810562271 1063 1122 2037 481 574 474 2023 487 490 1070 492 488 1074 4 84 1078 1077 486 493 2105 10731075 1069 49 495 567 575 2063 20 2057 10791123 2272 497 1 1092 7 496 501 2061 500 502 10 108911001098 2279 2068 508 11021101 1103 1099 5062070 509 507 2072 510 511 1120 1113 1109 515 2078 2080 514 512 1094 1114 1119 2284 1117 1116 519 2075 570 520 2086 2085 1115 529 2087 523 2082 522 531534 532 562 527 537 542 535 536 2096 540 545 546 2098 544 539 549 543 569 2095 553 551 548547550 554 558 559 560 555 811

174

457

393

Jacksonville Beach

459

NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

Baldwin

109

Atlantic Beach

Neptune Beach

498

Jacksonville

210

995

991

1093

1083

257

256

982

1019

102

463

Legend

1095

1121

997 1005

1112

5 1106 110

859

837

984

977975 1000 976 1008 1012

Conservation Lands

209

561

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 8 - Duval County Municipal Boundaries Date: 10/28/2014

Water Bodies

576 577

ÂŻ

Roadway System 0

10,560 Feet

6 Miles

Legend District 5 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries Duval Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000 Duval Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units Duval Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data

14 1

Conservation Lands

143

Water Bodies

139

14 0

144

138

Roadway System

190

1926 4 20

202

201

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 9 - Duval County District 5 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

163

199

205

197

151

19 0

17 3

167

17 2

206

147

190 7

189

19 1

7 18

194

174

1912 1919 171 1920

164

5 17

198

1935

18 6

1913

161

169

1918

1915 1923 1921 181 180 1 5 179 8 8 1 2 193 192 1951928 1925 1931 196 1932 1933

16 2

5 14

1908

1909

150

1901

168

1905

1910

159

1917

1 19

2001924

1911

158

6 17

183 178 1927 1922 18 188 4

170

165

1906

166

1902

2 15

17 7

160 1916

1903

155

153

156

154

15 7

14 9

148

14 6

2 14

203

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

2 Miles

22 6

230

1938

9 257

1983

19 4

233 242

Legend

33 5

323

Duval Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000

310

8 32

33 0

District 6 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries Duval Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units

334 329

316

277

256

276

1988

241

248

190 0

235

25 9 270

1993

2322 1996

333

306

301

309

308

281

263

1970

279

28 2

196 2

28 4

31 3

1991

1945 1944

267

268

272

292

303

296

253

300

29 9

294

295

1989

311

262

278

5 19

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 10 - Duval County District 6 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

0 25

19651960

1994

1995

258

3 195

283

298 302

243

239

240

1 25

1 195

5 19

1972 1966 1987 1985 1984

321

325

331

289

1990

6 19

332

1979

1954

324

327

288

255

1936

260

314

315

32 6

1980

297

1946

9 26

82 1986 19 1981

320 312

322

1969 1968

80 1971 2 1 1975 290

25 4

1955 26

3 29

319

307 31

1956

1977 29

4 30 1992

317

271

1978

4 26

266 3 27

1958 275 1963 4 1961 1964 27 1974 285 87 286 2

265 5 19

252

1959

7 24

1943

4 24

1942

249

238

245

246 1947 1948

194 1

237

1939

4 23

236

23 2

22 8

9 22

1940

231

7 22

305

Duval Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies Roadway System

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

0.8

1.6 Miles

Legend

District 7 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

Duval Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000 Duval Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units Duval Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies

353

354

Roadway System

355

358

357

356

1997

9 35

361

360

362

363

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 11 - Duval County District 7 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

500 Feet

0.1

0.2 Miles

9 36

37 1 370

2 37 3 37 8 199

District 8 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

375

374

Legend Duval Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000 Duval Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units Duval Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies Roadway System 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 12 - Duval County District 8 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

2,000 Feet 0

0.1

0.2 Miles

Legend

District 9 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

Duval Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000 Duval Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units Duval Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies

Roadway System

1999

2000

382 381

384

383

386

387

388

385 389

392

390

391

394

2002

393

396

395

40 0

398

397

399

2003

401

402

2001

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 13 - Duval County District 9 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

2004

2007

2005

2006

ÂŻ

500 Feet

0.15

0.3 Miles

488

49 2

567

484

498

2063

4 50

2073

2072

2061

496

459

49 20

2036 2047571

210 2

7 52

2082

2083

4 208

535

6 55

560

561

Roadway System 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 14 - Duval County District 10 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units

7 55

9 209

555

Water Bodies

2097

569

554

1 54

543

4 54

550

558

547

548

552

2023

469

4 51

519

532

549

Conservation Lands

Date: 10/28/2014

441

457

46 8

47 2

210 5

5 57

500

559

2 202

573

6 48

553

8 56

1 48

0 21

479

2 51

Duval Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data

542

Duval Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units

2095

463

471

1 46

454

5 46

Duval Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000

551

438

436

451

428

5 43

449

District 10 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

539

Legend

21 0

43 7

440

466

20112010 408 410409 2009 411 2013 2014 416417 418 4 424 422 423 20 2017 425 427430421 429 2019 2025 433 431426 432 4 445 444 2026 443 34 439447 6 8 450 4 4 4 452 4 3 2024 442 4 456 5 5 2 46 2027 4 5 2021 460 458 2028 464 467 2035 2030 2032 473 2033 475 2104 476 564478 483 2040 480 4 477 2048 2038 20392037 2044 57 2045 474 485 2051 49 470 491 489 0 4 9 3 2050 487 2053 2060 495 2057 494 2052 2100 497 20 566 58 2056 50 2054 499 2 565 1 0 5 2065 2064 2062 2071505 2069 2068 5032066 2070 508 506 507 509 511 0 2074 51 516 5132076 515 2078 518 2077 2080 2081 52 2075 0 517 7 0 524 5 2079 86 5 7 0 8 2 208 5255 530 526528 20 29 2089 523 521 531 2091 522 4 53 533 562 563 2090 2096 536 537 2094 538 2092 54 2098 546 0 545

ÂŻ

576 0

577

10,560 Feet

2 Miles

590

591

652

2161

657

647

670

616

2162

716

618

76 7

2166

21 6

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 15 - Duval County District 11 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

742

764

762

761

763

768

685

744

Roadway System

2164

769 770

2136 678

Water Bodies

651

765

766

Conservation Lands

3 216

Duval Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data

638 639

673

District 11 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

627

2140

2121

635

2138

617

637

645

629

643

606

636

634

674

Legend Duval Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units

2113

211 2 2119

633

613

632

65 653 4 656 2145 2147 2146 2150 659 663 662 661 2157 664 667 666 665 2148 2152 671 6 669 72 6 79 677 675 711 709 696 701 687 2149 695 702 693 710713 720 0 7 0 2 7 7 1 15 740 738 739 749 745 741 731 734 754 751 750 753 755 771 758 756 743 725 8 7 74 75 759 760

655

Duval Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000

612

60 4 619

624

642

641

614

605

2124

2141 2143 649 2142 650

2139 646

644

640 2144

2126

2135

2134

2137

648

603

2109

602

2123 621

2122

623

2117

607

2132

2133

2116

601

2110

600

610

2114

628

0 62

1 63

626

2118 622

630

611

0 212

2130

2125

2131

2127

212 9

2128

625

5 61

608

609

598

599

2111

593

2108

2115

596

2107

589

597

594

595

592

2106

ÂŻ

2,000 Feet

0.35

0.7 Miles

Legend District 12 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries Duval Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000

1 78

Duval Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units Duval Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies Roadway System

3 78

785 787 788 794 2167 799 798 795 2170 80280 5 804 2169 801 2171 815 807 806 813 819 818 814 821 820 2174 825 829 831 823 960 830 828 5 827 2177 7 834 835 832 21 839 838 833 1 854 853 9 851 47 842 2178 840 84 852 846 843 84 8 2179 857 858 844845 861 2180 864856 2181 5 86 873 875 872871 868 869 879 8 880 877 878 76 2182 88 1 889 888 7 8 8 885 891 884 890 883 894 90 898 897 904 2185901 3 900 911 909907 910 908 2183 2186 914 3 912 920 91 919 917916 918915 2187 922 929 926 923 930 925 932 928 936 934 931 2206 2205 22049382201 2199 947 948 945943 949 953 94422159502207 22129569542216 2203 22182217 958 959 786

82 4

822

81 2

86 2

810

85 5

811

863

86 0 955

899

939

941

902

882

87 0

957

940

942

886

924

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 16 - Duval County District 12 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

6 81

826

906

905

951

817

808

893

921

859

837

895

896

892

9 80

797

80 0

792

791 796

9 78

0 79

793

2168

784

782

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

2 Miles

Legend District 13 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries District 14 NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries Duval Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000 Duval Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units

982

Duval Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data

98 3

Conservation Lands Water Bodies

984 999

997

Date: 10/28/2014

2 110 2280 2278 11042281 1107 1113 1111 1108 1 1109 114 1115 1118 1117 1116 2283

ÂŻ

10 8

106 9

1088

2279 109 6

1093

4 10 9 48

1073

991 995

1083

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 17 - Duval County District 13 and 14 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units

1098 1097

1101

2284

1100

1120

10 9

1103

0 107

1019

7 107

8 10

5 10

1020

1043

1078

1 10

10 1037 39

0 226

1122

1025

2321 1052

1106

1007

1121

1005

1112

05 11

1095

2222 22309961006 1004 2234 2226 1009 2231 1002 1010 2236 1001 1013 1015 1014 2235 1016 10171021 1027 10222241 2244 22491032 1028 1036 2243 1026 1035 1024 1023 10341030 2252 1038 1050 1045 1044 1041 10481047 2261 1051 1053 1055 2263 1049 10581057 1060 1064 1063 1068 1056 1065 1059 2268 1067 1066 22751062 1074 2270 108010821081 1075 10851086 2273 1072 10761087 112 2269 2272 10911090 1092 3 2271

1012

988987 992 2221994 993 2227

101 1

976

986

1079

1008

975

1000

989

990

1003

985

977

Roadway System

10,560 Feet

22821119

2 Miles

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 18 - City of Jacksonville Future Land Use Map Date: 9/9/2014

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

2 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 23: Duval County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) Municipality or Development

Year 2010 Population living in HH

Growth Population Year 2010 2040

Year 2040 Population living in HH

Year 2010 Total HH

Growth HH Year 20102040

Year 2040 Total HH

District

TAZ

1093

Argyle

2,455

4,693

7,148

829

1,996

2,825

1094

Argyle

126

3,849

3,975

1,534

1,571

1120

Argyle

2,608

3,508

6,116

847

1,570

2,417

355

Atlantic Beach

1,126

317

1,443

639

180

819

356

Atlantic Beach

791

796

309

311

359

Atlantic Beach

688

712

255

264

360

Atlantic Beach

1,346

1,369

640

651

361

Atlantic Beach

1,059

183

1,242

388

455

363

Atlantic Beach

728

738

376

381

1997

Atlantic Beach

184

186

100

101

557

Bartram Park

4,836

3,594

8,430

1,658

1,674

3,332

2099

Bartram Park

2,219

6,689

8,908

1,111

3,349

4,460

556

Flagler DRI

268

1,637

1,905

103

650

753

2068

Freedom Commerce

482

1,823

2,305

316

1,195

1,511

381

Jacksonville Beach

818

171

989

487

102

589

382

Jacksonville Beach

1,060

1,132

457

488

383

Jacksonville Beach

1,020

1,111

467

509

384

Jacksonville Beach

1,456

139

1,595

583

639

385

Jacksonville Beach

857

127

984

312

358

386

Jacksonville Beach

291

325

170

190

387

Jacksonville Beach

924

982

456

485

388

Jacksonville Beach

622

656

263

277

389

Jacksonville Beach

353

392

147

163

390

Jacksonville Beach

849

103

952

563

632

391

Jacksonville Beach

616

113

729

226

268

392

Jacksonville Beach

393

Jacksonville Beach

2,031

129

2,160

872

927

394

Jacksonville Beach

826

103

929

392

441

395

Jacksonville Beach

709

769

303

329

396

Jacksonville Beach

1,048

231

1,279

585

129

714

397

Jacksonville Beach

956

248

1,204

530

137

667

398

Jacksonville Beach

609

631

249

258

399

Jacksonville Beach

1,663

127

1,790

696

749

400

Jacksonville Beach

327

189

516

135

213

401

Jacksonville Beach

602

688

267

305

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 23: Duval County â&#x20AC;&#x153;Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) Continued Year 2010 Population living in HH

Growth Population Year 2010 2040

Year 2040 Population living in HH

Growth HH Year 20102040

Year 2010 Total HH

Year 2040 Total HH

District

TAZ

Municipality

1999

Jacksonville Beach

530

100

630

320

381

2000

Jacksonville Beach

334

356

149

159

2001

Jacksonville Beach

101

173

274

103

2002

Jacksonville Beach

832

111

943

378

428

2003

Jacksonville Beach

215

259

2004

Jacksonville Beach

124

2005

Jacksonville Beach

112

2006

Jacksonville Beach

521

217

2007

377

431

214

245

142

Jacksonville Beach Jacksonville International Airport DRI

1,160

1,148

2,308

433

428

861

227

Mayport

1,638

1,262

2,900

449

346

795

1084

NAS

679

370

1,049

189

103

292

369

Neptune Beach

1,206

1,208

484

485

372

Neptune Beach

772

777

298

300

766

135

901

295

347

373

Neptune Beach

576

Nocatee

2,024

800

577

Nocatee

2,479

980

2033

Northeast Quad

179

1,488

1,667

102

848

950

461

Northeast Quad

3,348

3,591

6,939

1,637

1,756

3,393

155

River City Market

486

2,820

3,306

247

1,433

1,680

574

St Johns Towncenter

338

447

785

198

262

460

797

Westlake DRI

1,025

7,359

8,384

364

2,950

3,314

837

Westlake DRI

559

7,940

8,499

207

3,152

3,359

795

Westside Industrial Park

396

375

771

137

168

305

459

Windsor Parke

3,803

1,583

5,386

2,038

848

2,886

788,868

143,604

932,472

318,369

58,955

377,324

844,293

206,391

1,050,684

342,453

86,908

429,361

Remaining Area Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

DUVAL COUNTY YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology The employment projections in the year 2040 Trend Scenario are based on a combination of BEA trend analysis and population growth projections (see Table 11). The employment year 2040 control totals are listed in Table 12. The year 2040 employment control total for Duval County is 636,596. This is an increase of 117,454 employees from the 519,142 employees listed in the base year. The increase in employment during the 30-year period represents a growth rate of 23 % (0.8 % annual growth rate). In coordination with staff, it was decided that for the 2040 Trend Scenario the increase in employment would be “represented” by growing the current employment at their current locations and within their current sectors, with the exception of approved development. Table 24 lists the total for 2010 and for the year 2040 Trend and Alternate Scenarios. The sector totals for the Trend Scenario were adjusted based on the approved development numbers. The number of employees added to the 2010 total is 116,989. The number of employees associated with approved development is 105,534. An adjustment was made to the Industrial and Commercial sectors to accommodate estimated employment growth in the Service sector. Table 24 reflects this change. The total for the Alternate Scenario was reduced by 52,058 employees to accommodate the increase in employment development in Nassau, Baker and Clay counties. As a consequence, the ratio of workers to households decreases from 0.61 to 0.56.

Approved Development The City of Jacksonville Planning Department provided a list of approved developments, TAZ number, land use, and development size. These included industrial, retail, commercial, offices, restaurants, hotels, business parks, nursing home and service. Vacant industrial, commercial and timberland parcels were identified in the TAZs associated with the approved developments, and their area in acres was used to calculate the potential number of employees in these zones. Figure 19 shows the location of the DRIs and Table 25 shows the area of each vacant parcel in each TAZ. The assumed percentage of development in a parcel and the number of employees in each TAZ is also shown in Table 25. The number of employees’ per acre calculation was based on the Trip Generation, 7th edition and existing relationships between area and employees. An average size for offices is 200 to 325 square feet per employee and in retail and or commercial 14 employees per acre. After calculating the final number of employees per land use the ratio of vacant land in each TAZ was used to divide the employee total and assign the numbers to a specific TAZ. Based on the number of available acres in the parcels a total number of 105,534 employees was obtained. The distribution of the employees is shown in Table 25.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 24: Duval County Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sector

Employment Sectors

Year 2010

Year 2040 Trend

Alternate

38,919

44,615

120,988

138,695

Information

13,882

17,836

Finance and Insurance

41,546

53,425

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

11,509

14,766

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

28,713

37,481

5,425

6,914

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

35,270

45,319

Educational Services

27,718

35,652

Health Care and Social Assistance

57,340

73,825

5,009

6,418

Other Services (except Public Administration)

21,486

27,617

Public Administration

45,944

59,123

Service -Subtotal

293,842

378,376

541 271 38,677 38,939 23,962 102,390 369 19,947 60,240 38,202 118,758 17,848 53,416 14,797 36,916 6,975 45,347 35,637 73,722 6,440 27,625 59,070 377,792

Total

519,142

636,596

584,940

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

551

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

633

276

315

Construction

39,403

45,140

Manufacturing

39,670

45,455

Transportation and Warehousing

24,412

27,982

104,312

119,525

376

433

Wholesale Trade

20,322

23,285

Retail Trade

61,371

70,362

Industrial - Subtotal Utilities

Accommodation and Food Services Commercial - Subtotal

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Legend

148

ARGYLE FOREST

144

DRI NAME

139

138

NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

BARTRAM PARK

151

156

143

167

164

166

1902

159

153

147

154 1904 150 1909 1907206 1901 155 1601916 1581918 1913 162 161 165 168 169 1912 70 172 171 1 1 173 175 183 78 17 163 178 185 182 181 176 7 1922 190 1914 1 18 180 9 9 194 6 188184 1925 187 191 189 782 783 786 787 785 198 1926 789 204 202 201 798 790 791792 205 203 79 800 801 805 5 813 809 818812 806814 228 226 817 825 29 822827 1938 810 230 2 816 7 231 826 835 824 22 236 2322371941 853 846 852 849 590 847 855842 841 235 233 1900 240 239 247 858 862 241 245 2441942 860 595 857589 238 797 865 868 353 255 1951 608 620 617618 252 266 1949 260 870 877 876 869 1952 263 881 355356 631 636637 272 273 269 893 890 883 882 887899888 885 892 1950 635 285 271280279276 278 357 896 895 903 900 277 360 910916 914901 725 905 908 253 281289 906 902 744 292 294 5 921 919 923 922 767 370 98 369 372 924 932 926 1983 295 300 943 409 408 307 314297313 302 306 989 986 951 373 942 941940939938992934 382 990 311 320 308 1989 996956952 418 321 334 310 385384383 959 1003 999 8 421 323 315 5 325 9 305 420 424 955 957 1010 333 324316 330 335 387 1011 10181016 1014 447 431 426 432446 438436 390 4 1015 444 435 445 3 7 451 442 441 440 10271025 439449434 394 1028 395 1037 10241045 454 462 453455 461 2321 1026 398 2028465 5682022 1039 1050 469 1048 467 468 2260 399401 1052 10 1053 472 479 2036 1054 1060 4 2101 480485 564 3 402 4002004 1122 10681056 1059 1063 10702268 2037 481 574 474 2047 2023 487 490 492 488 484 9 486 493 2105 1078 1077 1074 107310751086 1069 575 495 04 1079 2271 2 567 2057 2063 1088 497 71 112310892272 1092 496 50 2061 500 502 10 1098 2279 2068 2073 1 2062 1100 508 507 2072 1103 10991111 11021101 506 2070 509 511 510 1120 515 2078 1109 1113 512 2080 514 1094 2284 1117 1116 1115 1114 1119 519 2075 570 520 2086 2085 525529 2087 523 2082 522 531534 532 562 527 537 542 535 536 2096 540 545 546 2098 539 549 543 569 2095 553 551 548547550 2097 554 558 560 559 811

174

863

NORTHEAST QUADRANT WESTLAKE INDUSTRIAL WESTSIDE INDUSTRIAL PARK WINDSOR PARKE ST. JOHNS TOWNCENTER RIVER CITY MARKETPLACE Conservation Lands Water Bodies

393

Roadway System

459

457

NOCATEE

109

1093

991

995

466

1083

257

256

982

3 98

258

195

1019

102

463

1095

1994

JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

0 11

FREEDOM COMMERCE CENTER

1106

1007

1121

1005

1112

859

837

984

977975 1000 976 997 1008 1012

FLAGLER DRI

210

498

561

209

555

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 19 - Duval County DRI Locations Date: 10/28/2014

576 577

10,560 Feet

6 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 25: Duval County Year 2040 Approved Development Employment TAZ

517 517 517 517 2099 2099 555 2099 2052 995 991 1071 1121 1122 2321 492 575 575 492 575

Development Name Avenues DRI

Office

Avenues DRI

Outparcel 1 (Ret/Commercial)

Avenues DRI

Outparcel 2 (Restaurant)

Avenues DRI

Outparcel 2 (Ret/Commercial)

Bartram Park DRI

Hotel

Bartram Park DRI

Office

Bartram Park DRI

Retail Commercial

Bartram Park DRI

Retail Commercial

Belfort Station DRI Cecil Field Cecil Field Cecil Field Cecil Field Cecil Field Cecil Field Deerwood Park DRI Deerwood Park DRI Deerwood Park DRI

First Coast Tech Park DRI First Coast Tech Park DRI Flagler Center DRI

Office Industrial and Mega Site Industrial and Mixed Use Industrial and Mixed Use Industrial and Mixed Use Industrial and Mixed Use Mixed Use Hotel Hotel Light IndustrialWarehouse/Distribution/R&D Specialty Commercial Specialty Commercial Support Commercial/Professional Office/Restaurant Support Commercial/Professional Office/Restaurant Light Industrial R & D Light Industrial Light Industrial

Flagler Center DRI

Office

Flagler Center DRI

Retail

Freedom Commerce Center Freedom Commerce Center Interstate Business Center DRI Interstate Business Center DRI

Commercial/Retail Office Commercial Restaurant

Deerwood Park DRI Deerwood Park DRI Deerwood Park DRI

492 Deerwood Park DRI 575 463 2101 556 556 556 2068 2068 2041 2041

Land Use

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

Sector

Service Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Service Commercial Commercial Service

Commercial Commercial Industrial Commercial Commercial

2,207,500 sf (50.6 acres) 70,000 sf (1.60 acres) 24,000 sf (0.55 acres) 5780 (0.13 acres) 31.08 acres (334 rooms) 474.45 acres (1,665,582 sf) 267.77 acres (1,403,452 sf) 267.77 acres (1,403,452 sf) 500,000 sf 172 acres 35 acres 98 acres 33 acres 65 acres 1 acre 250 rooms 250 rooms 1,162,340 sf 69,025 sf 69,025 sf 28,162 sf

Service

2040 Number of Workers 683 22 8 2 301 5,125 27 424 19 4,992 765 1,542 577 1,013 48 124 101 108 12

5 28,162 sf

Service Industrial Industrial Industrial Service

Development Size

Commercial Commercial Service Commercial Commercial

100,000 sf 100,000 sf 46 acres (2,003,760 sf) 4,400,000 sf (101.01 acres) 170,000 sf (4 acres) 600,000 sf 807,823 sf 55,000 sf 20,000 sf

4 36 36 715 13,538 56 193 724 18 22

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 25: Duval County Year 2040 Approved Development Employment Continued TAZ

146 149 156 149 146 149 156 158 1907 1911 154 156 146 154 156 149 154 146 149 154 156 158 1911 146

Development Name Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority

1907 466

Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville Aviation Authority Jacksonville International Tradeport DRI Jacksonville International Tradeport DRI Jacksonville International Tradeport DRI Jacksonville International Tradeport DRI Mayo Clinic DRI

466

Mayo Clinic DRI

577 577

Nocatee DRI Nocatee DRI

1907 1907 1907

Land Use Flex office / warehouse / workrooms Flex office / warehouse / workrooms Flex office / warehouse / workrooms Hotel / Conference room Light Industrial Light Industrial Light Industrial Light Industrial Light Industrial Light Industrial Limited service hotel (up to 3 sites) Limited service hotel (up to 3 sites) Low rise offices Low rise offices Low rise offices Multistory office Multistory office Retail / Restaurants / services Retail / Restaurants / services Retail / Restaurants / services Retail / Restaurants / services Retail / Restaurants / services Retail / Restaurants / services Shopping Centers Commercial DayCare Center Light Industrial

Service Service Service Service Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Service Service Service Service Service Service Service Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial

115,000 sq ft 265,000 sq ft 300,000 sq ft 4,115,000 sq ft 1,935,000 sq ft 4,280,000 sq ft 2,627,000 sq ft 574,000 sq ft 329,000 sq ft 225,000 sq ft

341 39 89 225 1,468 690 1,527 937 205 117 180

225,000 sq ft

180

335,000 sq ft 80, 000sq ft 210,000 sq ft 240,000 sq ft 240,000 sq ft 130,000 sq ft 40,000 sq ft 40,000 sq ft 85,000 sq ft 35,000 sq ft 35,000 sq ft 450 sq ft

1,675 400 1,050 1,200 1,200 42 13 13 27 11 11 145

108,900 sf

Service

12,000 sf 370.5 acres (16,138,980 sf)

Service

Hotel Facilities (Hotel, Monitored Hotel & Wellness Center Facilities Related Medical and Support Facilities Hotel Nursing Home

1,010,000 sq ft

2040 Number of Workers

Commercial

Industrial

Office

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

Sector

Development Size

Commercial Service Commercial Service

555,900 sf 500,000 sf (11.5 acres) 7,000,000 sf (160.7 acres) 225 rooms 180 beds

205 1,455 270 28,420 203 6

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 25: Duval County Year 2040 Approved Development Employment Continued TAZ

577 577 461 2033 155 155 155 477 564 564 564 574 493 1093 1094 1117 1093 1094 1115 1117 797 837 892 797 837 795 459 459 498 1903

Development Name

Land Use

Nocatee DRI

Office

Nocatee DRI

Retail

Northeast Quad DRI Northeast Quad DRI River City Marketplace DRI River City Marketplace DRI River City Marketplace DRI

Shopping Center/Commercial Shopping Center/Commercial Hotel Industrial Retail

Southpoint DRI Southpoint DRI Southpoint DRI Southpoint DRI St. Johns Towncenter DRI The Galleria DRI Villages of Argyle DRI

Light Industrial/Warehouse Light Industrial/Warehouse Restaurant Specialty Retail Movie theater Hotel Industrial

Villages of Argyle DRI

Industrial

Villages of Argyle DRI

Industrial

Villages of Argyle DRI Villages of Argyle DRI Villages of Argyle DRI Villages of Argyle DRI Westlake Industrial Park DRI

Office Office Office Office Business Park

Westlake Industrial Park DRI

Business Park

Westlake Industrial Park DRI

Business Park

Westlake Industrial Park DRI

Community /General Commercial

Westlake Industrial Park DRI

Community /General Commercial

Westside Industrial Park DRI

Commercial

Windsor Parke DRI Windsor Parke DRI

Commercial Office Commercial Hospital

Service Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Industrial Commercial Industrial Industrial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Industrial Industrial Industrial Service Service Service Service Service Service Service Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Service Commercial Service

Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

Sector

Development Size 147 acres (1,336,000 sf) 5 acres (32,000 sf) 506,443 sf 506,443 sf 300 rooms 31.4 acres 1,322,056 sf 30.35 acres 396,718 sf 396,718 sf 7,065 sf 500 seats 300 rooms 71 acres (1,817,000 sf) 71 acres (1,817,000 sf) 71 acres (1,817,000 sf) 1870000 sf 1870000 sf 1870000 sf 1870000 sf 273.2 acres (4,000,000 sf) 273.2 acres (4,000,000 sf) 273.2 acres (4,000,000 sf) 167.5 acres (2,500,000 sf) 167.5 acres (2,500,000 sf) 100,000 sf 2.3 acres 100,000 sf 1,534,028 sf 5,000,000 sq ft 300 beds

2040 Number of Workers 6,680 70 83 80 270 47 402 27 107 8 17 270 344 285 19 3,050 2,532 115 58 1,895 4,801 5,938 193 611 32 7 1,688 1,607 681 105,534

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

DUVAL COUNTY YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology The reasonableness of the age group distribution of the base year school enrollment data was verified. Figure 20, illustrates the data in the 2010 base year compared to the FLDOE data for relative age groups. Consistency is clearly demonstrated. The relationship between the school enrollment groups (kindergarten thru 8th and 9th thru 12th) and the population within the age group of base year data was used to forecast the school enrollment for the year 2040.

Figure 20: Duval County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment

Table 26, lists the numbers associated with the enrollment projections for 2040 as well as the 2010 base year numbers by district.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 26: Duval County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data Florida Department of Education 2009-2010 Enrollment District

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th thru 12th Grade

University College

Total

Year 2040 Enrollment Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th thru 12th Grade

University College

Total

8,503

2,097

10,629

21,229

10,752

2,674

12,841

26,267

22,519

7,754

21,033

51,306

28,471

9,892

25,531

63,894

651

656

823

829

1,217

2,362

3,579

1,539

3,014

4,553

4,840

4,853

6,120

6,137

26,348

10,677

31,416

68,441

33,313

13,624

36,959

83,896

10,345

4,070

16,280

30,695

13,080

5,193

19,668

37,941

18,327

7,910

911

27,148

23,172

10,090

985

34,247

938

647

1,585

1,186

826

2,012

18,307

5,689

15,677

39,673

23,149

7,261

18,906

49,316

111,995

41,224

95,946

249,165

141,606

52,597

114,890

309,092

Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

ST. JOHNS COUNTY ST. JOHN’S COUNTY YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS The reported population of St. John’s County in the 2010 U.S. Census is 190,039. The BEBR medium population projection for St. John’s County in 2040 is 377,000. This is an increase of 186,961 persons (growth rate 98%). The annual growth rate over the 30-year period is 3%. The average household size in 2010 was 2.55 PHH. As depicted in Figure 21, there are the four municipalities in St. John’s County. The 2010 Census data regarding population and persons per household (PHH) is as follows: Hastings Marineland Saint Augustine Saint Augustine Beach

58 persons 16 persons 12,975 persons 6,176 persons

2.49 PHH 1.83 PHH 2.08 PHH 2.15 PHH

As illustrated on Table 3, St. John’s County has a total of 17,690 acres identified as vacant residential parcels and 16% of the housing units reported as vacant. The vacancy rate in St. John’s County is approximately 10% if Vilano Beach and the Crescent Beach are excluded. Both communities have a relatively high number of seasonal housing units. Figure 22 shows the locations of the vacant residential parcels in red and the vacant housing units in the pink colored census blocks. St. John’s County has an ample number of developable parcels which are currently listed as either vacant, timberland or other agricultural uses. As directed by St. John’s County staff, first all approved development was allocated and second the areas between the DRI’s were assigned development according to the allowed densities listed in the FLUM. The information concerning the approved development was received from St. John’s County and is listed in Table 27. The municipalities of Hastings, St. Augustine and St. Augustine Beach provided specific information regarding development patterns in their boundaries. These are documented in Appendix A, and the projections are included in Table 27.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

3 114

11421140 23251145 1141 1147 1146 1148 1154

1144

2 23

115311521149

1155

1159

2 23

2328

2329

1193

2339 233 8 1229 1231 1228 1157 1230 2341 42 23 11561161 2330 1234 1232 1237 46 23 2347 2340 2333 58 11 12 1233 4 1163 3 1235 3 3 2 2345 6

1150

0 116

1151

1174

1194

1261

2369

6 23

2363

1 128

1337

6 237

2378

137 1

238 3

8 236

8 23

7 13

3 137

TOWN OF MARINELAND

TOWN OF HASTINGS

2 238

CITY OF ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH

8 23

1375

CITY OF ST. AUGUSTINE

7 236

1347

2375

8 7 13

St Johns Cnty TAZ Numbers

13 7

1344

1366

237

6 13

1370

2377

3 13

2 237

7 136

6 127

8 235

1363

5 2373

23 7

2356

3 23 5

1200

1180

0 12

6 13 1364

Legend

1178

1179 1204 1181 120 7 1205 1309 1182 23611306 1211 9 5 3 2 1308 13101311 1277 1304 23621316 1278 1324 13201279 13271321 1280 1282 1348 1329 1334 1286 1333 1285 23 1340 1339 2357 64 1341 1342134312881287 2365 1345 1289 2366 69 3 1 12911290

2 120

5 12

5 12 2371

2331

12 0

1177

2336

3 23

5 12

5 235

1260 2370

2354

9 119

1256

1198

2335

23 5

125 5

11 97

1325

235 0

1263

23 4

1 12

5 12

2351

1262

5 12

4 23

1176

2332

2348 1254

1196

1195

1175

1293

1292

1346

1377

2384

23 8

Conservation Lands Water Bodies

Roadway System 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 21 - St. John's County Municipal Boundaries Date: 10/29/2014

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

1.5

3 Miles

3 114

11421140 23251145 1141 1147 1146 1148

2 23

11521149

1155

1144 2 23

0 12

1263

1194

235 0

1261

2363

1366

1337 6 237

2375

2378

137 1

6 4

238 3

8 236

0 2384

23 8

Water Bodies

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 22 - St. John's County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units

7 236

1347

8 23

3 137

1 128

1286 1285 1340 1339 2357 1341 1342134312881287 2365 1345 1289 2366 12911290

3 13

23 6

13351334 1333

1344

2369

1325

23 4

23 7

6 127

6 23

6 13

1179

2356

1200

23 5

2331

2336

1180

8 235

1363

7 13

Conservation Lands

Date: 10/28/2014

1178

1204 1181 120 7 1205 1182 1309 23611306 1211 9 5 3 2 1308 13101311 1277 1304 23621316 1278 1324 13201279 13271321 1280 1282 13291348

St Johns County 2010 Census Blocks

2010 Census Blocks with Vacant Units

2 238

Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000

13 7

8 23

1375

St Johns Cnty TAZ Numbers

1177

One-way

237

8 7 13

Collector

Centriod Connector

2377

1370

6 13

Undivided Arterial

1176

3 23

2 237

7 136

Divided Arterial

2 120

5 12

Freeway

2335

6 13

1364

Facility Type

Not in Network

12 0

2371

2373

Legend

1198

5 12

2370

2354

5 235

1260

9 119

1256

23 5

1175

11 97

1262

125 5

1174

2332

5 12

2351

5 12

4 23

1193

2329

1196

1254

5 12

2328

1 12

2348

1195

1159

1150

0 116

1151

2339 233 8 1229 1231 1228 1157 1230 2341 42 23 11561161 2330 1234 1232 1237 46 2347 23 2340 2333 58 11 12 1233 41163 3 1235 3 3 2 2345 6

1154

1153

1293 1292

1346

1377

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

1.5

3 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 27: St. John's County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH)

District

TAZ

Municipality/Development

18 18 19 18 15 15 15 15 15 17 17 18 18 15 18 22 22 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 15 15 17 17 17 15 19 19 19 19 19 19 21 21 20 17 20

2340 2344 1253 1228 1143 1148 1152 2325 2327 2335 2337 1232 2343 2330 2346 1375 2381 1231 1234 2338 2339 2341 2342 1197 1161 1162 1193 1194 1196 2326 1251 1254 2348 2349 2350 2352 2362 2363 1280 1200 1281

Aberdeen Aberdeen Ashford Mills Bartram Park Caballos Del Mar Caballos Del Mar Caballos Del Mar Caballos Del Mar Caballos Del Mar Cordova Palms Cordova Palms Durbin Crossing Durbin Crossing Durbin Proposed Durbin Proposed Hastings Bulls Hit Hastings Smith Julington Creek Julington Creek Julington Creek Julington Creek Julington Creek Julington Creek Marshall Creek Nocatee Nocatee Nocatee Nocatee Nocatee Nocatee River Town River Town River Town Silverleaf Silverleaf Silverleaf Silverleaf Silverleaf St Augustine St Augustine Madeira St Augustine and St Augustine Beach

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

Year 2010 Population living in HH

Growth in Population Year 2010 - 2040

Year 2040 Population living in HH

Year 2010 Total HH

2,969 531 736 0 2,102 2,427 1,353 2,456 1,514 73 64 919 1,685 184 5 182 181 3,983 594 4,306 2,930 1,821 5,603 2,887 146 64 676 861 594 76 542 64 698 2,728 750 460 2,055 511 795 619 3,297

1,965 742 6,495 929 2,232 43 164 52 242 740 774 1,745 1,875 3,181 3,044 1,716 1,247 0 0 68 675 175 0 3,855 846 73 23,321 4,449 8 233 5,568 2,820 2,702 369 6,982 7,026 9,611 2,075 888 1,584 1,053

4,934 1,273 7,231 929 4,334 2,470 1,517 2,508 1,756 813 838 2,664 3,560 3,365 3,049 1,898 1,428 3,983 594 4,374 3,605 1,996 5,603 6,742 992 137 23,997 5,310 602 309 6,110 2,884 3,400 3,097 7,732 7,486 11,666 2,586 1,683 2,203 4,350

904 216 225 0 747 1,194 595 1,190 777 37 31 264 619 68 1 84 71 1,429 199 1,473 1,091 720 1,744 1,039 50 18 233 291 235 30 180 23 227 847 231 171 710 213 403 293 1,662

Growth in HH Year 2010 2040 1,046 287 2,633 367 966 21 72 25 124 375 375 789 788 1,262 1,204 792 489 0 0 256 334 69 0 1,626 342 36 9,252 1,808 3 92 2,235 1,117 1,117 377 2,825 2,788 3,901 809 450 750 531

Year 2040 Total HH 1,950 503 2,858 367 1,713 1,215 667 1,215 901 412 406 1,053 1,407 1,330 1,205 876 560 1,429 199 1,729 1,425 789 1,744 2,665 392 54 9,485 2,099 238 122 2,415 1,140 1,344 1,224 3,056 2,959 4,611 1,022 853 1,043 2,193

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 27: St. John's County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) Continued

District

TAZ

Municipality/Development

20 17 19 19 19 15 15 17 17 22 22 19

1284 1202 1258 1261 2355 1158 1163 1213 2334 2376 2380 2354

St Augustine Beach St Augustine Centre St Johns St Johns St Johns Twin Creeks Twin Creeks Twin Creeks Twin Creeks Watermark Proposal Watermark Proposal World Commerce Center Remaining Area

Year 2010 Population living in HH

Growth in Population Year 2010 2040

Year 2040 Population living in HH

913 992 2,000 1,135 4,579 176 17 105 14 0 4 816 120,708

153 371 2,885 3,549 959 3,409 4,555 4,272 403 6,199 6,200 1,790 51,997

1,066 1,363 4,885 4,684 5,538 3,585 4,572 4,377 417 6,199 6,204 2,606 172,705

429 454 695 543 1,447 68 6 39 6 0 2 276 50,545

Growth in HH Year 2010 2040 72 170 1,236 1,698 742 1,349 1,801 1,691 159 2,450 2,450 754 21,198

186,598

194,247

374,207

75,045

78,103

Total

Year 2010 Total HH

Year 2040 Total HH 501 624 1,931 2,241 2,189 1,417 1,807 1,730 165 2,450 2,452 1,030 71,743 153,148

Group Quarter and Seasonal Population As discussed previously, persons residing in households are counted separately from persons residing in group quarters. In St. John’s County the Year 2010 Census reported that 2,798 persons resided in group quarters. This group quarters population is included in the total population projected by BEBR for 2040. Unless, specific information was provided by the local government about group quarters, the group quarters population totals were kept the same. In St. John’s County the group quarters population was kept constant, as were the percentages associated with the seasonal population.

ST. JOHN’S COUNTY YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology The employment projections are based on a combination of BEA trend analysis and population growth projections (see Table 11). The 2040 employment control totals are listed in Table 12. The year 2040 employment control total for St. John’s County is 155,227. This is an increase of 93,513 employees from the 61,714 employees listed in the base year data. The increase in employment during the 30-year period represents a growth rate of 152 % (5.1% annual growth rate). In coordination with staff, it was decided that for the 2040 Trend Scenario the increase in employment would be “represented” by growing the current employment at their current locations and within their current sectors, with the exception of the approved development. No Alternate Scenario was identified.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 28: St. John's County Year 2010 and 2040 Employment Data Employment Sectors

Year 2010

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

Year 2040 Trend

531

1,326

Construction

3,904

9,835

Manufacturing

2,258

5,688

671

1,692

7,377

18,574

226

Wholesale Trade

2,782

7,004

Retail Trade

9,851

24,811

Accommodation and Food Services

9,713

24,464

22,439

56,505

Information

1,080

2,714

Finance and Insurance

1,896

4,769

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

2,783

6,999

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

2,390

6,012

214

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

2,372

5,961

Educational Services

5,179

13,040

Health Care and Social Assistance

6,224

15,565

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

2,006

5,037

Other Services (except Public Administration)

3,469

8,725

Public Administration

4,412

11,112

31,898

80,148

61,714

155,227

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

Transportation and Warehousing Industrial - Subtotal Utilities

Commercial - Subtotal

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Service - Subtotal Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Approved Development The St. John’s County Growth Management Department provided the DRI development, TAZ’s numbers and the approved area for each development. These includes industrial, retail, commercial, office and or service developments. One of the projects listed was Twin Creeks in TAZ 1158, 1163, 1213 and 2334. This was identified first as 2.9 million square feet of industrial, commercial and office use. The development order for this project was recently re-written (11-17-2013) to increase commercial development to 3.639 million square feet. Parcels were identified in the TAZs associated with the approved development and their area in acres was used to calculate the potential number of employees in these zones. Table 29 shows the area of each development in each TAZ and the number of employees in each TAZ. The number of employees’ per acre calculation was based on the Trip Generation, 7th edition and existing relationships between area and employees. An average size for offices is 200 to 325 square feet per employee and for retail and commercial 14 employees per acre. After calculating the final number of employees per land use, the ratio of vacant land in each TAZ was used to divide the number of employees into each TAZ. The number of available acres in the parcels was assessed and an estimate of 46,184 employees was calculated for these TAZs. The distribution of the employees is shown in Table 29. The locations of the DRI’s are shown in Figure 23.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 29: St. Johnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s County Year 2040 DRI Employment Estimate

TAZ

Development Name

2340 1253 1228 2325 2327 1232 2343 2330 2346 1231 1197 1193 1194 1196 2326 1251 1254 2348 2349 2350 1202 1261 2355 1158 1163 1213 2334 2376 2380 2354 1375 2381

Aberdeen Ashford Mills Bartram Park Caballos del Mar Caballos del Mar Durbin Crossing Durbin Crossing Durbin Proposed Durbin Proposed Julington Creek Marshall Creek Nocatee Nocatee Nocatee Nocatee River Town River Town River Town Silverleaf Silverleaf St Augustine Centre St Johns St Johns Twin Creeks* Twin Creeks Twin Creeks Twin Creeks Watermark Proposal Watermark Proposal World Commerce Center St Johns County St Johns County

Measurement Applied Acres 100,000 280,000 418,914

Rooms

Seats

480

1,600

442,439 170,000 3,268,000 120,000 628,658

3,933,698

500,000 1,770,000 1,168,407 5,540,000

3,639,000 1,475,000 3,428,631 492,228 75,500

Total * Source: St. Augustine Record, November 17, 2013

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

Vacant Land in Acres 55 1,061 3 9 2 269 9 67 218 16 14 706 1,419 654 836 779 5 77 7 1,045 143 26 25 764 14 136 741 2,035 10,272 9 408

Number of Employees Industrial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 35 16 20 32 0 3 1 116 106 447 427 319 6 57 309 59 296 144 0 0

Commercial 19 80 120 72 14 31 1 167 545 26 96 51 102 47 60 87 1 9 2 364 279 96 91 147 3 26 142 17 87 291 95 15

Service 200 150 224 744 141 339 11 1,535 4,997 200 1,643 1,726 3,468 1,600 2,043 452 3 45 9 1,491 0 3,925 3,745 1,616 29 288 1,566 124 626 6,510 984 151

Total 219 230 344 816 154 370 12 1,702 5,542 226 1,740 1,794 3,606 1,663 2,124 572 4 57 12 1,971 385 4,468 4,263 2,083 38 372 2,018 200 1,009 6,946 1,079 166

2,411

3,185

40,588

46,184

December 12, 2014

3 114

11421140 23251145 1141 1147 1146 1148 1154

1144

2 23

115311521149

1155

1159

2 23

2328

2329

1174

1193

2339 233 8 1229 1231 1228 1157 1230 2341 42 23 11561161 2330 1234 1232 1237 46 23 2347 2340 2333 58 11 12 1233 4 1163 3 1235 3 3 2 2345 6

1150

0 116

1151

1194

1261 2369

2363

1366

6 237

2375 2384

23 8

8 236

8 23

238 3

7 236

1347

137 1

1337

2378

6 4

3 137

1 128

1286 1285 1340 1339 2357 1341 1342134312881287 2365 1345 1289 2366 1290 1291

3 13

23 7

6 127

6 23 6 13

13351334 1333

1344

2356

3 23 5

1200

8 235

23 6

9 7 13

2331

2336

1180

0 12

2 120

1363

St. Johns Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data

1178

1179 1204 1181 120 7 1205 1309 1182 23611306 1211 9 5 3 2 1308 13101311 1277 1304 23621316 1278 1324 13201279 13271321 1280 1282 13291348

237

World Commerce Center

Twin Creeks

St. Augustine Centre

13 7

2 238

1375

Silverleaf

8 23

RiverTown

Saint Johns

5 12

Nocatee

1177

Marshall Creek (Palencia)

7 13

Julington Creek Plantation

6 13

Durbin Crossing

2377

1370

Caballos Del Mar Cordova Palms

3 23

2373

2 237

Bartram Park

1364

7 136

Ashford Mills

12 0

Aberdeen

5 12

DRI Name

St Johns Cnty TAZ Numbers

2371

6 13

Legend

5 12

5 235

1260 2370

2354

9 119

1256

1198

2335

23 5

1325

235 0

1263

23 4

23 4 125 5

11 97

5 12

2351

5 12

1 12

1254

1262

5 12

4 23

1176

2332

2348

1196

1195

1175

1293 1292

1346

1377

Conservation Lands Water Bodies

Roadway System 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 23 - St. John's County DRIs Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

1.5

3 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

ST. JOHNâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S COUNTY YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology The reasonableness of the age group distribution of the base year school enrollment data was verified. Figure 24, illustrates the data in the 2010 base year compared to the FLDOE data for relative age groups. Consistency is clearly demonstrated. The relationship between the school enrollment groups (kindergarten thru 8th and 9th thru 12th) and the population within the age group of base year data was used to forecast the school enrollment for the year 2040.

Figure 24: St. Johnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment

Table 30, lists the numbers associated with the enrollment projections for 2040 as well as the 2010 base year numbers by district. The districts are shown on Figure 2.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 30: St. Johnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data by District Florida Department of Education 2009-2010 Enrollment District

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th Grade thru 12th Grade

University College

Total

Year 2040 Enrollment Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th Grade thru 12th Grade

University College

Total

4,114

8,712

1,150

5,041

912

7,103

2,435

11,753

1,429

15,617

7,062

1,429

8,491

14,956

3,331

18,287

3,622

1,689

5,311

7,671

3,938

11,609

656

658

1,389

1,394

6,087

2,074

7,693

15,854

12,890

4,835

9,446

27,171

597

124

721

1,264

289

1,553

23,288

10,359

8,605

42,252

49,317

24,152

10,875

84,343

Total

CLAY COUNTY CLAY COUNTY YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS The reported population of Clay County in 2010 (U.S. Census) was 190,865. Using the BEBR medium projection, the County's population is expected to growth to 315,700, an increase of 124,835 persons (65% growth rate), at an annual growth rate of 2%. The reported average household size in 2010 was 2.77 PHH. There are four municipalities in Clay County (see Figure 25). The 2010 Census data regarding population and persons per household (PHH) is as follows: Green Cove Springs Keystone Heights Orange Park Penny Farms

6,908 persons 1,350 persons 8,412 persons 749 persons

2.71 PHH 2.52 PHH 2.26 PHH 1.61 PHH

Table 3 lists the vacant residential parcels and vacant housing units within the county and the local governments. In Clay County 13,772 acres were identified as vacant residential parcels, and the Census reported 9% of the housing units vacant. Clay and Baker counties have the lowest vacancy rates within the study area. Figure 26 shows the locations of the vacant residential parcels in red and the vacant housing units in the pink colored census blocks.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

2292 22931412 1415 2285 1413 1417 1395 14 14 2295 52 2300 1418 2294 1399 1400 1393 14 14 14541405 1404 1397 14 1406 2289 55 2311 1457 1460 1459 2291 2 1461 1463 6 14 1465 1464 2313 2314 1471 1472 2302 1473 14742315 23042301 2318 14761468 1 1475 1432 4 1479 78 1433 1435 1477 2317 1484 1482 2319 2308 1485 1483 2307 1436 2320

1431

1453

1536

1437

1487

1540

1552

1569

1564

1563

15 44

1543

1521

1558

15801579 61 158315821581 1584 1585 1586 1587 15 62

154

1550

1557

1559

156

1481

8 150

1440

1438

23062305

1546

1520 1523

154

1541

155

1594

1537

1539

1519

1535

3 15

1555

1506

1488

1489

1480

1502

1503

143

1466

1469

150

1499

1451

15 96

1565 156

1617 1619

1618

1605

1604

1599

1598

Legend

NAME

606

NERPM TAZ Clay County GREEN COVE SPRINGS KEYSTONE HEIGHTS ORANGE PARK PENNEY FARM

Conservation Lands Water Bodies

Roadway System 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 25 - Clay County Municipal Boundaries Date: 10/29/2014

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

1.5

3 Miles

1451

143 4

1536

1487

1481

156 0

1552

15 07

41 14 68 15

2 154

1521

44 15

1543

88 15

1563

1520 1523

1594

95 5 1

1539

1519

39 14

04 15

15 05

86 14

1502

1503

1466

1453

01 15

1564

150 0

1499

229314121415 142114131417 2285 14 2295 52 2300 2294 14001393 1414 1399 1404 14052291 1455 1457 1460 1456 1459 23131462 1464 1465 1431 1469 14711472 2302 147423151468 2304 1479 1478 1433 1432 1480 1484 1482 2307 1435 1485 1483 2320 14371436 1489 1488 14382306 1555 155 2305 6 1506 1534 1535 5 1440 154 1537 1508 1538 1541 1540 1546 1559 1557 1554 1558 1551 1 1550 57 1569 8 1579 15 15821584 53 1561 1585 1586 1587 15 62

15 22

1565

96 15

15 67

6 156

02 6 1

1605

1598

Legend

Facility Type

16 01

1599 16041617 1618

16 00

97 5 1

Not in Network Freeway

Divided Arterial

3 160

Undivided Arterial Collector

6 160

Centriod Connector One-way

NERPM TAZ Clay County

Clay Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode000 Clay Cnty Census Vacant Units

Clay Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 26 - Clay County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

1.5

3 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Clay and Baker Counties both have a significant amount of conservation areas and wetlands (green areas in Figures 26 and 29), nevertheless Clay is one of the fastest growing counties in the study area, second only to St. John’s County. At the meeting with planning staff and during follow up conversations, it was decided to first assume all the approved development to be built out and next to assume that the older developments would redevelop at an increased density.

Approved Development The staff informed us that Clay County has eight developments of regional impacts (see Figure 27) as follows: • • • • • • • •

TAZ 1452 and 1453 Oakleaf – Active with a total of 4,500 homes - built out (2010 shows 3,378 for 1452 and 4,310 for 1453). TAZ 1540, 1559, 1560 Saratoga 1,418 single-family units in each TAZ. TAZ 1567 Governor Park additional 6,000 single-family dwelling units. TAZ 1431 Pace Island (built out). TAZ 1433, 1434, 2301, 2304 Eagle Crossing (built out). TAZ 1438, 1439, 1441 Fleming Island Plantation (built out). TAZ 1486 Orange Park South (built out). TAZ 1502 Highland (withdrawn).

In addition, the following notes were made. • •

Lake Asbury has a Master Plan outlining its development TAZ 1540, 1545, 1550, 1551, 1552, 1553 (red area in Figure 27). Besides Lake Asbury, development is expected to take place in the following order: o Next TAZ 1562 and 1567 (South-east of Lake Ashbury) o Last TAZ 1544 and 1596 (South-west of Lake Ashbury)

Discussions regarding an alternative land use scenario pattern included increased development along Brannan Field Chaffee Road in the northern end of the County in TAZs 1460 and 1466. An estimate of 1,500 multi-family dwelling units could be added in those TAZs. Redevelopments will occur in the Saratoga development (TAZ 1560) and the Governor Park development (TAZ 1567) at a higher density. The land-use along the commuter rail corridor will redevelop as mixed use at a higher density. And finally, the Orange Park Mall area (North-eastern portion of the County) will redevelop as a mixed-use transit hub at a higher density.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

1451

1453

0 150

1499

22931412 1415 2285 21 1413 4 1 1417 2295 1395 14 52 2300 1418 2294 1399 1400 1393 14 14 14541405 14041397 14 1406 2289 55 2311 1457 1460 1459 2291 2 1461 1463 6 14 1465 1464 2313 2314 1471 1472 2302 1473 14742315 23042301 2318 1476 1468 1475 1478 1432 1479 1433 1435 1477 2317 1484 1482 2319 2307 2308 1485 1483 1436 2320

1469

1431

1536

1437

1487

1480

1557

1558

1569

1565

1543

1586

1563

15801579 61 158315821581 1584 1585 1587

1564

1552

156

1481

8 150

07 15

See Inset

1559

1550

1521

1438

1540

1523

1440

1546

154

1594

1520

23062305

154

1539

1519

1541

155

1537

1535

4 53

1506

1555

1488

1489

143

1466

1502

1503

156

Legend

143 1484

143 8

14 6

154 5

Fleming Island 1540

The Crossings at Fleming Island Fleming Island

Governors Park Pace Island

Saratoga Springs Villages of Argyle

Brannan Field MasterPlan 2306

148 9

155

Clay County DRIs

Orange Park South 1436

2303 2309 23 08

1437

230

144 0

143 2

1435

1468

606

NERPM TAZ Clay County

2305

2314

143 1

1459

2301

0 16

1461 4 6 14 1467

147 2

230 2

1604 1617 1618 1619 1605

1599

1598

Oakleaf

Lake Asbury Master Plan

Clay Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies

Roadway System

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 27 - Clay County DRI's and Master Plans Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

1.5

3 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

All four of the municipalities provided specific information regarding their growth patterns. These discussions have been documented in Appendix A, and the associated projections have been included in Table 31. In Table 31 the year 2010 and 2040 population associated with the development and the 2040 forecasts are listed. For each of the TAZs in the DRIâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s and Master Plans, the parcels and acreage was calculated and then based on the allowed densities in the development plans or the FLUM, the number of additional households was calculated. The average household size was assumed to be 2.65 PHH, which is the household size of TAZs in Clay County with similar development patterns. Table 31: Clay County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Data Living in Households (HH) Growth Persons Year 2010 2040

Year 2010 Total Persons living in HH

Year 2040 Total Persons living in HH

Year 2010 Total HH

Growth HH Year 2010 2040

Year 2040 Total HH

District

TAZ

Developments or Municipalities

1562

Governor Park plus growth

544

5,888

6,432

192

2,235

2,427

1567

Governor Park plus growth

998

11,020

12,018

377

4,158

4,535

1578

Green Cove Springs

1,926

1,051

2,977

797

435

1,232

1579

Green Cove Springs

492

472

964

216

207

423

1586

Green Cove Springs

4,453

4,550

1,669

1,717

1588

Green Cove Springs

1,810

1,815

682

685

1602

Keystone Heights

3,056

533

3,589

1,147

200

1,347

1604

Keystone Heights

725

139

864

261

311

1545

Lake Asbury

7,616

7,666

2,875

2,893

1550

Lake Asbury

12,658

12,659

4,776

4,777

1551

Lake Asbury

3,485

1,315

1552

Lake Asbury

4,901

4,905

1,848

1,851

1553

Lake Asbury

7,070

7,103

2,785

2,798

1452

Oakleaf & BFC

10,565

3,443

14,008

3,129

2,157

5,286

1453

Oakleaf & BFC

11,168

29,385

40,553

3,843

11,460

15,303

1540

Saratoga

25,476

25,562

9,616

9,646

1559

Saratoga

173

2,506

2,679

943

1,011

1560

Saratoga

260

1,237

1,497

471

570

Remaining Area

156,672

57,589

Total

189,614

124,395

314,009

68,792

48,325

117,117

Group Quarter and Seasonal Population The 2010 group quarters population total is 1,251 in Clay County. The City of Orange Park is expecting an increase of 442 persons in nursing homes, which brings the 2040 group quarter population total to 1,693. No changes were made to the seasonal population percentages.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

CLAY COUNTY YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology As discussed earlier, the employment projections in the year 2040 Trend Scenario are based on a combination of BEA trend analysis and population growth projections (see Table 11). The control totals are listed in Table 12 and shows that the year 2040 employment control total for Clay County is 88,958. This is an increase of 34,504 employees when compared with the base year data. The 2010 employment in Clay County was 54,454. The increase in employment during the 30-year period represents a growth rate of 64% (2% annual growth rate). In coordination with staff, it was initially decided that for the 2040 Trend Scenario the increase in employment would be â&#x20AC;&#x153;representedâ&#x20AC;? by growing the current employment at their current locations and within their current sectors, with the exception of the approved developments. However, the employment added by the approved development is greater than the employment associated with the approved development. Table 32 shows the 2010 employment numbers by sector and the year 2040 Trend and Alternate Scenarios. Table 32: Clay County 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sector Employment Sectors

Year 2010

Year 2040 Trend

Alternate

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

207

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

Construction

4,637

12,455

Manufacturing

1,546

4,152

956

2,636

7,257

19,491

Transportation and Warehousing Industrial - Subtotal Utilities

619

863

1,480

2,062

11,450

15,951

6,240

8,694

19,789

27,570

859

1,318

Finance and Insurance

1,244

1,907

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

1,504

2,306

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

2,260

3,462

177

273

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

1,420

2,176

Educational Services

5,327

8,165

Health Care and Social Assistance

6,908

10,477

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

1,523

2,334

Other Services (except Public Administration)

2,835

4,344

Public Administration

3,351

5,135

27,408

41,897

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Commercial - Subtotal Information

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Service - Subtotal Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

54,454

88,958

294 41 17,703 5,902 3,765 27,706 1,026 2,452 18,973 10,340 32,790 1,624 2,351 2,843 4,271 335 2,684 10,068 13,056 2,879 5,358 6,333 51,802 112,298

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 33 shows the employment numbers associated with the approved development. For the Trend Scenario the control total for the County was kept the same (89,069). In the Alternate scenario, the distribution between the Industrial, Commercial and Service Sector is based on the approved development ratios rather than on the 2010 ratios. This resulted in an increase in the percentage share in the Industrial sector, from 13% to 25%, a percentage decrease in share in the Commercial Sector, from 36% to 29%, and a decrease in share in the Service sector from 50% to 46%. For the Alternate Scenario, all approved employment was added (57,844 employees) creating a total 2040 employment projection of 112,298. Adding all employees changes the population employment ratio from 2010 of 0.29 to 0.36.

Approved Development The master plans for Brannan Field and Lake Ashbury were reviewed and the employment was placed in both of these developments and included industrial, retail, commercial, office and service. For Lake Asbury, the landuse codes IVC (Interchange Village Center), AC (Activity Center) and COM (Commercial) were used and for Brannan Field the land-use codes of TND (Traditional Neighborhood), AC (Activity Centers), CC (Community Centers) and MIX (Mixed Use) were used. Each development has its own characteristics and percentages of how much land is considered as developable land (Floor Area Ratio) and how much land inside the development will be associated with industrial, retail, commercial, office and or service land-uses. In addition to these two developments, the City of Green Cove Springs expects employment growth in Reynolds Industrial Park. Reynolds Industrial Park redevelopment will add 4 million square feet of commercial, 3.3 million square feet of industrial, 0.8 million square feet of office and 0.2 million square feet of institutional development. The City provided the guidance for the allocation of this development in TAZs 1586 (71 %) and TAZ 1588 (29%). Parcels were identified in these TAZs and their area in acres was used to calculate the number of employees associated with the land use in these zones. Table 33 shows the area of development in each TAZ and the number of employees associated with the land-use. The number of employeesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; per acre calculation was based on the Trip Generation, 7th edition and existing relationships between area and employees. An average size for offices is 200 to 325 square feet per employee and in retail and or commercial 14 employees per acre. After calculating the final number of employees per land use the ratio of vacant land in each TAZ was used to divide the number of employees into each TAZ. Based on the number of assessed available acres in the parcels a total of 57, 844 employees was calculated to be available for placement within these TAZs. The distribution of the calculated number of employees is shown in Table 33. For the Trend Scenario the 57, 844 will be scaled back to the control total of 34,615, and for the Alternate Scenario the total number of employees will be added and the difference (23,229) will be subtracted from the control total of Duval County. In the Alternate Scenario the counties are trying to attract more business and reverse the commuting trend to Jacksonville.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 33: Clay County Year 2040 Approved Employment Estimate TAZ 1452 1453 1460 1466 1479 1480 1481 1482 1487 1488 2318 2319 2320 1452 1453 1460 1466 1466 1481 1482 1487 1488 1466 1460 1466 1487 2313 Subtotal 1540 1546 1550 1551 1534 1536 1537 1539 1542 1550 1553 Subtotal 1586 1588 Subtotal 1416 Subtotal Total

Development

Acres

Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field AC Brannan Field CC Brannan Field CC Brannan Field CC Brannan Field CC Brannan Field CC Brannan Field CC Brannan Field CC Brannan Field CC Brannan Field CC Brannan Field MIX Brannan Field TND Brannan Field TND Brannan Field TND Brannan Field TND Brannan Field Lake Ashbury AC Lake Ashbury AC Lake Ashbury AC Lake Ashbury AC Lake Ashbury COM Lake Ashbury COM Lake Ashbury COM Lake Ashbury COM Lake Ashbury COM Lake Ashbury IVC Lake Ashbury IVC Lake Ashbury Reynolds Park Reynolds Park Reynolds Park Orange Park Orange Park

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

Industrial

166 76 87 67 334 496 134 64 30 128 33 149 55 34 39 8 7 144 90 56 21 14 280 385 313 188 24 3,423 192 4 251 3 6 25 4 24 3 27 151 689 54 22 76 12 12

694 316 364 279 791 2,070 560 269 124 534 139 621 228

1,514

8,503 356 8 465 5 0 0 0 0 0 1,542 8,751 11,127 582 238 819 0 0 20,449

Year 2040 Employment Commercial Service 468 0 214 0 246 0 188 0 939 600 1,397 0 378 0 181 0 84 0 361 0 94 0 419 0 154 0 77 412 87 470 19 102 15 81 323 1,738 201 1,082 125 673 47 253 32 171 245 0 860 1,647 718 2,234 326 1,014 0 0 8,198 10,477 322 3,086 7 65 422 4,036 4 40 20 266 88 1,006 14 157 84 960 11 143 330 330 1,876 1,876 3,178 11,965 548 1,136 224 464 771 1,600 854 352 854 352 13,001 24,394

Total 1,162 530 610 467 2,330 3,467 938 450 208 895 233 1,040 382 489 557 121 96 2,061 1,283 798 300 203 1,759 2,507 2,952 1,340 0 27,178 3,764 80 4,923 49 286 1,094 171 1,044 154 2,202 12,503 26,270 2,265 925 3,190 1,206 1,206 57,844

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

CLAY COUNTY YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology The reasonableness of the age group distribution of the base year school enrollment data was verified. Figure 28 illustrates the data in the 2010 base year compared to the FLDOE data for relative age groups. Consistency is clearly demonstrated. The relationship between the school enrollment groups (kindergarten thru 8th and 9th thru 12th) and the population within the age group of base year data was used to forecast the school enrollment for the year 2040. Figure 28 shows the results of applying this relationship to forecast the 2040 enrollment.

Figure 28: Clay County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment

Table 34, lists the numbers associated with the enrollment projections for 2040 as well as the 2010 base year numbers by district. The districts are shown in Figure 2.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 34: Clay County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data by District Florida Department of Education 2009-2010 Enrollment

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

3,022 1,205 3,338 10,574 2,717 0 2,720 20 1,762 580 841

19 26 2,406 8,352 0 171 28 1,443 2 1,313 0

3,676 0 0 3,626 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6,717 1,231 5,744 22,552 2,717 171 2,748 1,463 1,764 1,893 841

4,620 1,842 5,104 16,168 4,154 0 4,159 31 2,695 887 1,286

9th thru 12th Grade 29 40 3,689 12,806 0 262 43 2,212 3 2,013 0

Total

26,779

13,760

7,302

47,841

40,947

21,095

District

9th thru 12th Grade

Year 2040 Enrollment

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

University College

Total

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

University College

Total

3,676 0 0 4,381 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8,325 1,882 8,793 33,355 4,154 262 4,202 2,243 2,698 2,900 1,286

8,057

70,100

BAKER COUNTY BAKER COUNTY YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS The reported population (2010 U.S. Census) of Baker County in 2010 was 27,115. The BEBR medium population projection for the County for 2040 is 39,000, an increase of 11,885 persons. The growth rate over the 30-year period is 44%, and the annual growth rate is 1.5%. The Census also reported an average household size of 2.97 PHH. Baker County is the least populated county of the six counties. As illustrated on Figure 29, there are two municipalities, Glen Saint Mary and MacClenny. The County has large conservation areas within which no growth can occur. The 2010 Census data regarding population and persons per household (PHH) is as follows: Glen Saint Mary MacClenny

437 persons 6,374 persons

2.46 PHH 2.77 PHH

As discussed earlier and listed in Table 3, the first step was the identification of the vacant residential parcels and vacant housing units within the counties and municipalities. In Baker County a total of 5,341 acres were identified in the parcel data as vacant residential parcels, and the Census reported 9% of the housing units vacant. Figure 30 and Figure 31 show the locations of vacant residential parcels in red and the vacant housing units in the pink colored census blocks. Illustrated on Figure 30 and Figure 31 the residential area is located

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

2411

2401

3 241

2412

1 24

24 1

2420

2402

2407 2419 2408 2418 2417

6 240

2424

2404

1 24

24 0

2422

2405

24 2

2423

2426

2429

2416

2425

2428

2403

242 7

Legend

NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries GLEN ST. MARY MACCLENNY

Conservation Lands Water Bodies

Roadway System 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 29 - Baker County Municipal Boundaries Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

1.5

3 Miles

2411

2401

3 241

2412

1 24

24 1

2402

2416

2425

2428

6 240

2407

1 24 2

See Inset Figure 30

2404

1 24

24 0

2422

2405

2423

2429

2420

2419 2408 2417

2424

2426

2403

242 7

Legend

NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

Baker Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Vacant Residential Parcels

Baker Cnty Year 2010 Census Data Census Blocks with Vacant Units Baker Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies

Roadway System 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 30 - Baker County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

1.5

3 Miles

1 24

241

2403

2402 2416

2420

24 1

2418

2408

2407

24 2

240 5

2424

2 24

24 1

Legend

NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

Baker Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Vacant Residential Parcels

Baker Cnty Year 2010 Census Data Census Blocks with Vacant Units Baker Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data

2410

2422

Conservation Lands

0 24

Water Bodies

Roadway System 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 31 - Inset Baker County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units

Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

4,000 Feet

0.4

0.8 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

in the center of the County. Figure 30 shows the whole County, and Figure 31 is an inset of the more densely populated area within the center of the County. At the meeting held with Baker County staff, the staff informed us that prior to the recession a single family residential development of 6,000 units was planned for this area (TAZ 2402). Figure 32 shows the location of TAZ 2402. As illustrated, the TAZ is centrally located within the County. The TAZ is bordered on the west by CR 127, on the east by CR 125 and on the south by US Highway 90. The information depicted in Figure 33 is the year 2010 parcel data for TAZ 2402 and the different land use codes within the TAZ. The same parcel data shown on the map is summarized in Table 35. As listed in Table 35, there are 1,225 vacant residential acres within TAZ 2402. These 1,225 vacant residential acres are associated with 208 parcels ranging in size from 238 acres to 0.06 acres. The average vacant residential parcel is 5.8 acres. The TAZ has approximately 15,394 acres in agricultural type use parcels which could be rezoned to residential. Based on these observations, TAZ 2402 has the geographical ability to absorb the 6,000 units. The base year 2010 socio-economic data list that TAZ 2402 had 835 households and a population of 2,517 in the year 2010. The Census Data reported 806 households, and the parcel listed 270 single family units, 224 mobile homes and 2 residential buildings with less than 10 units. The average household size was 3.01 PHH in 2010 and was adjusted to 2.80 PHH for the 2040 future projections, to reflect the household size of developments in neighboring TAZs. As we noted earlier, using the medium population projections for Baker County developed by BEBR, a population of 11, 885 needs to be added to the base year population total. Table 36 shows the 2010 household and population numbers. As shown in the table, TAZ 2402 increased the number of households to 5,144 in the year 2040, which using an average household size of 2.80 increases the total population for the zone to 14, 403.

Group Quarter and Seasonal Population

Also listed in Table 36 are the group quarters populations. As stated earlier, in the NERPM-AB the people residing in households are counted separately from the persons residing in group quarters. In Baker County the year 2010 Census reported that 2, 344 persons resided in group quarters. This group quarters population is included in the total population number of the 2040 BEBR projections. Unless, specific information was provided by the local government about group quarters, the group quarters population totals were kept the same. In Baker County the group quarters population was kept constant, as were the percentages associated with the seasonal population.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Legend

Facility Type

Not in Network Freeway

Divided Arterial

Undivided Arterial Collector

Centriod Connector One-way

NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

2411

Year 2010 Parcel Data TAZ 2402

Baker Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies

Roadway System

2401

3 241

2412

1 24

24 1

2402

2416

2425

2428

2420

2407

6 240

2419 2408 2417

2424

2404

1 24

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 32 - Baker County TAZ 2402 Date: 10/28/2014

24 0

2422

2405

24 2

2423

2426

2429

2403

242 7

ÂŻ

10,560 Feet

1.5

3 Miles

Legend

NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

Description

1 24

ACREAGE NOT ZONED FOR AGRICULTURAL

AUTOMOTIVE REPAIR, SERVICE, AND SALES CHURCHES

CROPLAND SOIL CLASS 3

FOREST, PARK, AND RECREATIONAL AREAS GRAZING LAND SOIL CLASS 1 IMPROVED AGRICULTURE

MIXED USE, I.E., STORE AND OFFICE MOBILE HOMES

MORTUARIES, CEMETERIES

MULTI-FAMILY LESS THAN 10 UNITS

ONE-STORY NON-PROFESSIONAL OFFICES OTHER COUNTIES

OTHER MUNICIPAL PARCELS WITH NO VALUES

5 241

OTHER STATE

PARKING LOTS, MOBILE HOME SALES PUBLIC SCHOOLS SINGLE FAMILY

1 24

TIMBERLAND

4 241

STORES ONE-STORY

VACANT COMMERCIAL

VACANT INSTITUTIONAL VACANT RESIDENTIAL

WAREHOUSES, AND DISTRIBUTION CENTERS Baker Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies

2427

Roadway System

2425

2402

2416

2408

2406

2421 2426

2405

2424

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 33 - Baker County Parcel Data for TAZ 2402 Date: 10/28/2014

4,000 Feet

0.4

0.8 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 35: Baker County Summary of Parcel Data TAZ 2402 Number of Buildings

Land Use Code

1,215.6

270

453.5

Single Family

224

568.0

Mobile Home

Total

Acres

Description of Land Use Code Vacant Residential

1.0

241

050

3,225.8

053

106.2

Cropland Soil Class 3

054

126.4

Timberland

055

6,020.0

Timberland

056

4,231.1

Timberland

057

22.8

Timberland

059

1,072.0

Timberland

060

589.8

099

2,818.2

742

Multi-Family less than 10 Units Improved Agriculture

Grazing Land Soil Class 1 Acreage not Zoned for Agricultural

20,450.4

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 36: Baker County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH)

TAZ

Total Persons Living in HH Year 2010

Total Persons Living in HH Year 2040

Total HH Year 2010

Total HH Year 2040

Year 2010 Census Reported Average HH Size *

Year 2010 Total Persons Living in Group Quarters

Year 2040 Total Persons Living in Group Quarters

Year 2010 Total Population

Year 2040 Total Population

2401

226

2.54

226

2402

2,517

14,403

835

5,144

2.80

2,517

14,403

2403

1,971

705

2.80

270

2,241

2404

377

152

2.48

1,376

1,753

2405

1,108

391

2.83

1,108

2406

381

136

2.80

381

2407

832

306

2.72

877

2408

1,061

404

2.63

1,061

2409

1,162

405

2.87

516

1,678

2410

924

339

2.73

924

2411

111

3.17

111

2412

1,540

488

3.16

1,560

2413

1,056

366

2.89

1,056

2414

2,258

787

2.87

2,258

2415

130

2.60

130

2416

4,163

1,500

2.78

4,163

2417

226

2.63

226

2418

2.67

117

165

2419

977

345

2.83

977

2420

204

2.55

204

2421

1,435

505

2.84

1,435

2422

2.49

2423

2.00

2424

863

311

2.77

863

2425

637

217

2.94

637

2426

2.66

2427

2.71

2428

2.35

2429

248

2.51

248

24,523

36,657

8,772

13,081

2,344

27,115

39,001

Total

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

BAKER COUNTY YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology As discussed earlier, the employment projections in the year 2040 Trend Scenario are based on a combination of BEA trend analysis and population growth projections (see Table 11). The employment year 2040 control totals are listed in Table 12. The year 2040 employment control total for Baker County is 13,860. This is an increase of 6,464 employees from the 7,396 employees listed in the base year 2010 data. The increase in employment during the 30-year period represents a growth rate of 87% (2.9% annual growth rate). In coordination with staff, it was decided that for the 2040 Trend Scenario the increase in employment would be “represented” by growing the current employment at their current locations and within their current sectors. The year 2010 and the year 2040 Trend and Alternate Scenario’s employment totals by sector are listed in Table 37. Table 37: Baker County Employment Totals by Sector 2010 and 2040 Employment Sectors

Year 2010

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

Year 2040 Trend

Alternate

129

129 0

Construction

545

1,020

1,021

Manufacturing

171

321

320

Transportation and Warehousing

247

464

4,417

1,032

1,934

5,888

671

1,265

1,257

1,112

2,083

2,084

539

1,007

1,010

2,323

4,357

4,353

Information

599

1,123

Finance and Insurance

175

329

328

155

156

220

412

Industrial Sector - Subtotal Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Commercial Sector - Subtotal

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises

153

154

573

1,074

1,194

2,237

2,238

113

114

Other Services (except Public Administration)

377

704

706

Public Administration

677

1,269

4,041

7,569

7,573

7,396

13,860

17,814

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Service Sector - Subtotal Total

For the Alternate Scenario, the additional employment will be primarily placed along the major east-west routes in TAZs 2404, 2407 and 2429 (see Figure 32) and will be in the Transportation Warehouse sector. Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Vacant industrial and timberland parcels were identified in these three TAZs and their area in acres was used to calculate an estimated number of employees for these zones. Table 38 shows the area of the vacant parcels used in each TAZ and the associated floor area ratio used to calculate the amount of developable land. Based on the area, a percentage of industrial development in the parcels was calculated and the number of employees assigned to each TAZ. The number of employeesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; per acre calculation was based on the Industrial Land Use section in Trip Generation, 7th edition. Based on the number of available acres in the parcels, 3,954 employees were placed within the three TAZs. The distribution of the employees is shown in Table 38. The 3,954 employees were added in the Transportation Warehouse sector to the Alternate Scenario in Table 37. The additional 3,954 employees will be subtracted from the Duval County employment control total in order to maintain the regional control total. The Alternate Scenario reflects Baker Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s desire to attract more business and reverse the commuting trend to Jacksonville. The population employment ratio in Baker County was 0.30 in 2010. The 2040 ratio increases to 0.38 in the Trend Scenario and to 0.49 in the Alternate Scenario. Table 38: Baker County Year 2040 Employment Estimate Alternate Scenario TAZ

Vacant Area (Acres)

Floor Area Ratio (Acres)

Year 2040 Number of Estimated Employees Transportation and Warehousing Sector

2404

241.4

169.0

2,610

2407

11.6

8.1

125

2429

112.8

78.9

1,219

Total

365.8

256.0

3,954

BAKER COUNTY YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology The reasonableness of the age group distribution of the base year school enrollment data was verified. Figure 34, illustrates the data in the 2010 base year compared to the FLDOE data for relative age groups. Consistency is clearly demonstrated. The relationship between the school enrollment groups (kindergarten thru 8th and 9th thru 12th) and the population within the age group of base year data was used to forecast the school enrollment for the year 2040.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Figure 34: Baker County 2040 School Enrollment Projections based on 2010 Ratio

Table 39, lists the numbers associated with the enrollment projections for 2040 as well as the 2010 base year numbers. The growth rate of the total school enrollment is 45% as is the total increase in the school going age group. Table 39: Baker County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data

District

34 34 34 34 34 Total

New TAZ

2407 2416 2418 2419 2420

Florida Department of Education 2009-2010 Enrollment

Year 2040 Enrollment 9th Kindergarten thru University thru 8th 12th College Grade Grade

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th thru 12th Grade

University College

1,718

2,502

1,287 17 762 45

1,386 13 0 0

0 0 0 0

2,673 30 762 45

1,874 25 1,110 66

2,018 19 0 0

0 0 0 0

3,892 44 1,110 66

3,829

1,399

5,228

5,576

2,037

7,614

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

Total

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

PUTNAM COUNTY PUTNAM COUNTY YEAR 2040 POPULATION DEVELOPMENT PROCESS The 2010 U.S. Census reported the population of Putnam County as 74,364 and the average household size as 2.51 persons PHH. The BEBR medium population projection for the County in 2040 is 79,400. This is an increase of 5,036 (growth rate 7%). With an annual growth rate of only 0.2% Putman County is the slowest growing county in the study area. Putnam County has five municipalities located within the County (see Figure 35). The largest city in the County is Palatka. Palatka Crescent City Interlachen Pomona Park Welaka

10,558 persons 1,577 persons 1,403 persons 912 persons 701 persons

2.43 PHH 2.30 PHH 2.48 PHH 2.53 PHH 2.14 PHH

Table 3 lists the number of vacant residential parcels in acres for each of the counties. In Putnam County 26, 84 acres are listed under this category. Putnam County has the highest vacancy rate (21%) of all six counties. Figure 36 and 37 show the locations of the vacant residential parcels in red and the vacant housing units in the pink colored census blocks. As can be seen on Figure 36 and Figure 37 the residential vacant parcel and the vacant dwelling units are spread throughout the county but the majority are concentrated in the City of Palatka. Putnam County has suffered an economic downturn, with the loss of employment opportunities for county residents. Georgia Pacific, a major employer, closed one of two facilities it operated in the County eliminating 500 industrial jobs in TAZ 2461. This TAZ is located in the southwestern corner of the county and highlighted with a green border in Figure 36. There are two major employers in the County, Georgia Pacific facility and a hospital located in TAZ 2469 (see Figure 37). Future growth in the County is hinged upon new employment opportunities and expansion of the water and sewer system. Expansion is not budgeted at this time. The first phase of a planned expansion will occur in TAZ 2476 (Figure 37). County staff also suggested the potential for growth along SR 207 in TAZs 2475 and 2477 (see Figure 38). A Walmart Distribution Center is expected to add industrial employment in TAZ 2489 (Figure 38).

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

245 5

2458

2469 24702493 2472 3 7 2467 24

2494

2454

2465

4 247

24 6

2488

7 24 24 8

8 24

2462

2492

246 4

2477

2479

2466

2461

2475

2460

7 24

8 246

2452

2456

7 245

1 245

245 3

8 24 4

1 249

2490

2482

3 248

2486

2485

2487

2489

Legend

NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries Pomona Park City Boundary Crescent City Boundary Welaka City Boundary Interlachen City Boundary Palatka City Boundary Conservation Lands Water Bodies Roadway System 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 35 - Putnam County Municipal Boundaries

Date: 10/29/2014

ÂŻ

0 4,000 Feet

4 Miles

245 5

2460

2469 24702493 2472 3 7 2467 24 4 247

2494

2454

2465

8 24 0

2462

2492

24 8

7 24

246 4

24 6

2488

2477

2479

2466

2461

2475

2458

7 24

8 246

2452

2456

7 245

1 245

245 3

8 24 4

1 249

2490

2482

3 248

2486

2485

2489

Legend

2487

TAZ 2461 Pomona Park City Boundary Crescent City Boundary Welaka City Boundary Interlachen City Boundary Palatka City Boundary NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries Putnam Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000 Putnam Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units Putnam Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies Roadway System

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 36 - Putnam County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

0 4,000 Feet

4 Miles

245 3

6 24

2451

246 9

3 249

2470

2471

24 7

2455

2494

2475

2472 7 24 7

6 24

7 24

24 Legend Palatka City Boundary NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries Putnam Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000

2463

Putnam Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units Putnam Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Water Bodies Conservation Lands

2462

Roadway System

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 37 - Palatka Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

4,000 Feet

2478 0

0.5

1 Miles

245 5

2460

2469 24702493 2472 3 7 2467 24 4 247

2494

2454

2465

24 6

8 24 0

2462

8 24

2482

1 249

2490 3 248

2485

2486

Legend

2489

2475 2477 2489 Pomona Park City Boundary Crescent City Boundary Welaka City Boundary Interlachen City Boundary Palatka City Boundary NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries Putnam Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000 Putnam Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units Putnam Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data Conservation Lands Water Bodies Roadway System

2487

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 38 - Putnam County TAZ Locations of Possible Future Growth Date: 10/28/2014

24 8

7 24

246 4

2477

2479

2466

2461

2488

2492

TAZ

2475

2458

7 24

8 246

2452

2456

7 245

1 245

245 3

ÂŻ

0 4,000 Feet

4 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Approved Development The previously approved development in Putnam County is located within the City of Palatka. According to City staff, Palatka will grow by 3,000 people in the next three decades. The staff provided direction to assume that all vacant lots will be build out and new development will occur in the newly annexed southeast portion of TAZ 2474. The City of Palatka has been annexing commercial parcels not residential, resulting in irregular city boundaries as can be seen in Figure 37. By 2040, the City is expected to incorporate most of these residential parcels. There is one approved Planned Unit Development (PUD) named Cypress Mills. This development can potentially add 86 multi-family units and 10 single-family units to TAZ 2474. The same TAZ 2474 is expected to be annexed by Palatka and add 2,000 single-family units. Other directions received from staff included the assumption that TAZ 2467 and 2473 will grow first and to assume 25% multi-family units and the rest being single-family units. TAZ 2494 is expected to only add single-family units. TAZ 2468 has a large wetland area in the southeast portion, and the northeast portion will be developed as industrial. All TAZ locations are shown in Figure 39. The municipalities of Interlachen and Crescent City also provide specific information regarding expected growth in population. In Crescent City we were asked to add approximately 500 people, and the City of Interlachen is expecting an increase of approximately 90 single family units over the next 30 years. Table 40 provides the population projections for 2040 associated with approved development and the specific information obtained from the local staff. No alternative land use was identified. Appendix A: Coordination summaries the information which was obtained during the meetings with local staff.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Legend

245 3

2451

6 24

45 TAZ 5

2467 2468 2473 2474

246 9

2494 Palatka City Boundary

2494

Putnam Cnty Census Blocks with Vacant Units

2476

Putnam Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000

3 249

NERPM TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

2471

Putnam Cnty Year 2010 Parcel Data

2470

Water Bodies

2472

Conservation Lands

2477

Roadway System

6 24

7 24

2474

2463

2462 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 39 - Palatka City TAZ Locations of Possible Future Growth Date: 10/28/2014

ÂŻ

4,000 Feet

0.5

1 Miles

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 40: Putnam County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH)

TAZ

Municipality

Year 2010 Population Living in HH

Growth Population Living in HH 2010 - 2040

Year 2040 Population Living in HH

Year 2010 Total HH

Growth HH 2010 2040

Year 2040 Total HH

2484

Crescent City

275

138

413

143

215

2485

Crescent City

317

371

688

140

164

304

2460

Interlachen

1,995

234

2,229

766

856

2474

Palatka_Cypress Mills Annexation

4,509

4,291

8,800

1,723

1,797

3,520

Remaining County

65,861

26,637

72,957

5,035

77,992

29,409

2,123

31,532

Total

Group Quarter and Seasonal Population The group quarters population remains the same for 2010 as for 2040 (1,407) and no changes were made to the seasonal population percentages.

PUTNAM COUNTY YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology As discussed earlier, the employment projections in the year 2040 Trend Scenario were based on a combination of BEA trend analysis and population growth projections (see Table 11). The control totals are listed in Table 12 and show the 2040 control total for Putnam County as 28,051. This is an increase of 2,903 employees from the 2010 base year data. The 2010 employment in Putnam County was 25,148 resulting in a 30-year period growth rate of 21% (0.7% annually). With the exception of the Walmart distribution center, the 2040 increase in employment was â&#x20AC;&#x153;representedâ&#x20AC;? by growing the current employment at their current locations. The 400 employees associated with the Walmart distribution center were added to TAZ 2489. Putnam County did not develop an Alternate Scenario. The 2040 Trend Alternative employment projections by sector are shown in Table 41.

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Table 41: Putnam County Employment Totals by Sector 2010 and 2040

Employment Sectors

Year 2010

Year 2040 Trend

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Construction Manufacturing Transportation and Warehousing Industrial Sector - Subtotal Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Commercial Sector - Subtotal Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

501 82 1,927 2,837 409 5,756 753 774 3,223 1,403 6,153 211 601 408

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises

1,236 25

1,351

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

984 2,349 2,688 117

1,077

Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration Service Sector - Subtotal

1,971 2,649 13,239

2,161

14,514

Total

25,148

28,051

Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets

100

560 91 2,148 3,166 825

6,790 826 851 3,533 1,537

6,747 231 656 448 27

2,574 2,946 126 2,917

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

PUTNAM COUNTY YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Methodology The reasonableness of the age group distribution of the base year school enrollment data was verified. Figure 40, illustrates the data in the 2010 base year compared to the FLDOE data for relative age groups. Consistency is clearly demonstrated. The relationship between the school enrollment groups (kindergarten thru 8th and 9th thru 12th) and the population within the age group of base year data was used to forecast the school enrollment for the year 2040. Figure 40 shows the results of applying this relationship to forecast the 2040 enrollment.

Figure 40: Putnam County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment Putnam County 14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

Age 5 - 14/K-8th

Age 15 - 17/9th - 12th

Total

FL DOE 2009 -2010

9,051

3,090

12,141

2010 AGE GROUP

9,212

2,670

11,882

2040 RATIO ENROLLMENT

9,757

3,339

13,096

2040 AGE GROUP

9,931

2,885

12,816

Table 42, lists the numbers associated with the enrollment projections for 2040 as well as the 2010 base year numbers. The growth rate of the total school enrollment is 7.1% and the growth rate in the school going age group is 7.9%.

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Table 42: Putnam County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data Florida Department of Education 2009-2010 Enrollment

Year 2040 Enrollment Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th thru 12th Grade

University College

2,446

193

2,732

2,931

409

441

1,061

499

1,560

1,144

539

1,683

148

159

2477

2475

757

816

2474

484

485

522

523

2473

845

900

911

970

2470

482

1,449

1,931

520

1,566

2,086

2468

1,205

5,148

6,353

1,299

6,282

7,581

2467

958

1,012

1,033

1,091

2466

856

859

923

926

2464

2459

413

423

445

456

2458

429

462

2455

328

354

2454

540

914

1,454

582

988

1,570

2451

9,051

3,090

7,409

19,550

9,757

3,339

9,014

22,108

District

New TAZ

2494

179

2,261

2487

2485

409

2482

2479

Total

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th thru 12th Grade

University College

Total

7. FINALIZATION OF DATA After the data was developed for the six county area and its municipalities, teleconferences were conducted with each of the local governments to review the initial meeting summaries, the interpretation of them, the development of the data as well as the final projections. No changes were requested as a result of these calls. Appendix B contains the summary of the teleconferences. In subsequent calls with the City of Jacksonville staff, we were requested to accommodate the Davis/SR 9B development of 5 million square feet of commercial development and 1,115 single family units that are expected to be constructed by 2040. As directed, this developed was placed in TAZ 498. Also as directed, an assumption of 14 employees per acre was made, which resulted in the addition of 1,598 commercial employees. An average household size of 1.94 PHH was used resulting in an increase of 2,163 persons. Appropriated additions were made to the road network to reflect developer commitments.

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8. YEAR 2030 DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS The 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Update (Path Forward 2040) contains a 2030 interim year network and dataset. This required the development of population, employment and school enrollment data for the year 2030. These datasets were developed by interpolating between the 2010 and 2040 socioeconomic datasets, assuming a linear growth rate. Population Data Development Process As previously discussed the 2010 socio-economic data set was developed by the North Florida TPO, the FLUM combined with the input and data directly received from the local governments were used to develop the 2040 population projections. The 2030 population projections and number of households was projected using the growth from 2010 to 2040. To develop the 2030 population a constant growth rate was assumed. Table 43 shows the total population living in households and the number of households by county for the year 2030.

Table 43: Year 2030 Population living in HH and Number of HH by County

County

Nassau Duval St. Johns Clay Baker Putnam Totals

Year 2030 Total Population living in HH

NERPM-AB Year 2030 Total HH

NERPM-AB Year 2010 Total Population living in HH

NERPM-AB Year 2010 Total HH

NERPM-AB Year 2040 Total Population living in HH

NERPM-AB Year 2040 Total HH

Growth in HH 2040-2010

Growth in Population living in HH 2040-2010

101,696 981,887

40,190 400,387

72,771 844,293

28,794 342,453

116,159 1,050,684

45,888 429,354

43,388 206,383

17,094 86,901

311,671

127,114

186,598

75,045

374,207

153,148

187,609

78,103

272,545 32,695 76,313

100,827 11,645 30,824

189,614 24,771 72,957

68,792 8,772 29,409

314,010 36,657 77,991

116,845 13,081 31,532

124,395 11,886 5,035

48,053 4,309 2,123

1,776,807

710,987

1,391,004

553,265

1,969,708

789,849

578,696

236,584

Employment Data Development Process The employment data was based on the assumption that the growth rate between 2010 and 2040 would follow a straight line. Table 44 summarizes the 2030 employment data distribution by county among the different sectors.

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Table 44: Year 2030 Sector Employment by County Employment Sectors

Year 2030 Baker

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities

Clay

Duval

Nassau

Putnam

St. Johns

Total

109

164

611

1,108

542

1,069

3,603

304

490

781

418

114

802

192

2,309

Construction

863

9,849

43,268

4,949

2,075

7,851

68,855

Manufacturing

272

3,285

43,552

3,239

3,056

4,552

57,956

Wholesale Trade

1,069

1,870

22,323

488

826

5,603

32,179

Retail Trade

1,760

14,450

67,396

3,906

3,430

19,824

110,766

Transportation and Warehousing

392

2,075

26,759

1,225

688

1,353

32,492

Information

949

1,166

16,544

229

225

2,173

21,286

Finance and Insurance

277

1,687

49,495

699

639

3,819

56,616

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services

132

2,037

13,728

755

438

5,601

22,691

348

3,057

34,592

986

1,315

4,806

45,104

243

6,446

175

6,929

129

1,924

42,034

919

1,047

4,768

50,821

907

7,218

33,024

2,177

2,500

10,421

56,247

1,889

9,287

68,323

2,615

2,858

12,458

97,430

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

2,063

5,970

663

124

4,030

12,946

Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration

852

7,877

42,749

5,149

1,494

19,548

77,669

593

3,840

25,639

1,403

2,096

6,976

40,547

1,072

4,541

54,745

3,743

2,829

8,881

75,811

11,711

77,455

597,920

34,434

27,098

124,129

872,747

Health Care and Social Assistance

Total

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School Enrollment Data Development Process The 2030 school enrollment data was developed the same way as the 2030 population/household and the 2030 employment data. Table 45 summarizes the 2030 school enrollment by county. Table 45: Year 2030 School Enrollment Projections by County County Nassau

Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

9th Grade thru 12th Grade

University and College

11,720

4,875

1,701

130,292

48,668

110,240

St. Johns

40,563

19,441

9,968

Clay

36,058

18,060

6,594

Baker

4,935

1,822

Putnam

9,614

3,230

8,550

233,182

96,096

137,053

Duval

Total

As discussed in Section 3, the data projections in the NERPM-AB are aggregated to the TAZ level. The control totals by county and by TAZ, are used by the PopGen program. This program synthesizes the population to the characteristics identified in the Census and PUMS data sources and allocates it to a household/parcel and individual level. The 2030 marginal control totals used by the PopGen program are a straight line projection between the 2010 and 2040 marginal control totals and correspond with the 2030 controls listed in tables 43 through 44. The application of the PopGen program is discussed in the Validation Report and in the Userâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Guide.

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APPENDIX A: COORDINATION

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Meeting Summaries Nassau County And Municipalities Callahan Fernandina Beach Hilliard

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Meeting Date:

July 18, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Nassau County 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Nassau County Administration Building, Yulee

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Peter King (Planning Director) Scott Herring (Public Works Director) Taco Pope (Planning) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

In 2010 Nassau County had a population of 73,314 and the projected population for the year 2040 is expected to be 116,700 adding 43,386 people. The average household size in 2010 was 2.59 PHH. Most of Nassau County’s growth is expected to take place within the East Nassau Community Planning Area. This area is located in TAZs 37, 39, 41, 42, 44, 46, 48, 52, 65 and 66. The following developments will need to be added first: • • • • • •

Next, a third of the vacant units are expected to become occupied evenly spread throughout the county. If additional units are needed in order to accommodate the BEBR medium projections, additional vacant residential parcels will be assigned single-family units evenly spread throughout the county. In addition, employment is expected to grow in TAZs 42, 26 and 66. Industrial employment is expected to grow in TAZ 50 (Tradeplex). As an alternative land use scenario, the county discussed growth in industrial employment south of Callahan (TAZ 115), referred to as Crawford Diamond Industrial Park, in the form of an industrial distribution/warehouse center, which would bring with it residential growth in the western portion of the county. The following network comments were received: • Nassauville Road should be one lane in each direction in the 2010 network.

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Meeting Date:

July 31, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Town of Callahan 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Callahan

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Michael Williams (Public Works Director) Shirley Graham (Mayor) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The Town of Callahan is located in Nassau County. According to the 2010 Census, the population of Callahan was 1,123 in 2010 and the average household size was 2.36 PHH. The following estimates were made as far as the growth pattern in Callahan: • • • • • • •

TAZ 108 add 41 single-family units. TAZ 109 add 36 single-family units. TAZ 110 add 13 single-family units. TAZ 112 add 8 single-family units. TAZ 113 add 10 single-family units. TAZ 114 add 5 single-family units. TAZ 116 add 21 single-family units.

In addition, the Town of Callahan is looking to annex. The growth is expected to occur in the northeast direction and would add the following units: • • • •

TAZ 100 add 40 single-family units. TAZ 104 add 152 multi-family units and 163 single-family unit. TAZ 117 add 116 multi-family units. TAZ 118 add 11 multi-family units and 60 single family units.

In the alternative land use scenario a distribution center (Crawford Diamond Industrial Park) to the southwest of Callahan should be assumed, which will also stimulate multi-family development in TAZ 115. No changes are needed in the 2010 network, however in the needs network they requested to increase Lem Turner Rd’s capacity to two lanes directionally from US 1 to I-295.

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

July 16, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

City of Fernandina Beach 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

North Florida TPO

Purpose:

City Hall, City of Fernandina Beach

Attending:

Kelly Gibson (Planning) Adrienne Burke (Community Development Director) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Fernandina Beach is located in Nassau County. The City of Fernandina Beach had a population of 11,487 in 2010 and it is not expected that it will increase by much. The average household size for Fernandina Beach in 2010 was 2.29 PHH. The following projections were made for the year 2040: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

TAZ 1 no additional units. TAZ 2 25 units were built in 2010. TAZ 3 74 additional units. TAZ 4 116 additional units. TAZ 5 85 additional units. TAZ 6 30 additional units. TAZ 7 160 additional units. TAZ 8 15 units were built in 2010. TAZ 9 46 additional units. TAZ 12 155 additional units. TAZ 13 80 additional units. TAZ 14 100 additional units within city limits. TAZ 16 30 units were built since 2010 80 additional units. TAZ 17 46 additional units. Resulting in an additional total number of 937 single-family units and at a household size of 2.24 this would equate to an additional 2,099 people if all units are assumed occupied. No mobile homes are expected to be within the City limits by 2040. The seasonal population is assumed to remain the same. The vacancy rate is not expected to change by much.

For the alternative land use scenario more commercial and service jobs should be allocated to the identified activity centers. Several adjustments need to be made to the 2010 network. These are as follows: • Fort Clinch Road needs to be removed, it is in the state park and is not open to general traffic. • Sadler Road is two lanes by direction from Fletcher Ave to A1A.

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â&#x20AC;˘

A1A is 1 lane by direction north of A1A.

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111

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

August 28, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Hilliard 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

School Board Building, Yulee

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

David Buchanan (Mayor) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The Town of Hilliard is located in Nassau County. According to the 2010 Census, the population of Hilliard was 3,086 in 2010 and the average household size was 2.65 PHH. The growth in the Town of Hilliard has been slow. By 2040 an increase in population around 750 to 900 is to be expected. The following details were discussed: • • • •

TAZ 87 a PUD has been approved but did not occur due to the downfall in the economy. It would have included 30 multi-family homes and 300 single-family homes and a strip mall along the corridor, TAZ 84 plans had been made to add 70 multi-family units, TAZ 78 right outside City limits, industrial employment is to be expected along the railroad TAZ 79 is mostly wetlands,

No alternate land use scenarios were discussed and the 2010 network was reviewed and no comments were received.

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Summaries Duval County And Municipalities Atlantic Beach Baldwin Jacksonville Beach Neptune Beach

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December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

July 31, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

City of Jacksonville 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Ed Ball Building, City of Jacksonville Planning Department

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Soliman Salem (Transportation Planning) James Reed (Planner – GIS) Cory Sawyer (Planner – GIS) Gary Kresel (Acting Community Planning Div. Chief) Lurise Bannister (Transportation Planning) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Jacksonville has the same boundaries as Duval County; however, Duval County includes three communities in the Beaches area and the Town of Baldwin. In 2010 the population of Duval County was 864,278 according to the Census. For 2040, the medium population projection is 1,071,600 adding a population of 207,322. The 2010 Census number for the City of Jacksonville was 821,784, and the average household size was 2.57 PHH. The staff agreed that the methodology was reasonable and proposed to analyze the data and provide us with the year 2040 household type and number of unit allocations by TAZ. A list of approved development was going to be developed as well. The same approach was taken for the development of an alternative land use scenario with the understanding that the population control total will remain the same. The City of Jacksonville staff also agreed to review the 2010 transportation network and provide us with any needed changes.

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

August 9, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

City of Atlantic Beach 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Atlantic Beach

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Rick Carper (Public Works Director) Jeremy Hubsch (Planner) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Atlantic Beach is located in Duval County. Within the City of Atlantic Beach the 2010 population was 12,655 and the average household size was 2.41 PHH. The proposed methodology was accepted and the staff of Atlantic Beach provided the following directions: • • • • • • • •

TAZ 355 add 180 single-family dwelling units (Selva Marina redevelopment). TAZ 356 only two vacant lots are left add 2 single-family units. TAZ 359 add 9 single-family units. TAZ 360 add 11 single-family units. TAZ 361 will be redeveloped with low income housing, add 67 multi-family units. TAZ 363 add 5 single-family units (four are under construction). TAZ 1997 add 1 single-family unit (majority is wetlands). Check with the City of Jacksonville regarding plans concerning mobile home parks in TAZ 242 and TAZ 357.

The possibilities for alternative land use would be more commercial and service employment along Mayport Road, although it was not clear if perhaps that scenario should be made as part of the 2040 trend. Network comments regarding the 2010 network were as follows: • Seminole Road does not connect to Mayport Road. • A1A does not continue as far north as shown on the map, it stops at the Hannah Park gate. • Sailfish Road should be added to the network.

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December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

September 5, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Baldwin 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Email Exchange and Phone Calls

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Stan Totman (Mayor) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The Town of Baldwin is located in Duval County. Within Baldwin the 2010 population was 1,425 and the average household size was 2.42 PHH. According to the Census, the total number of units was 664, and 588 were occupied and 76 were vacant. No major changes are expected to occur in Baldwin.

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December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

August 9, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

City of Jacksonville Beach 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Jacksonville Beach

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Bill Mann (Planning) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Jacksonville Beach is located in Duval County. Within the City of Jacksonville Beach the 2010 population was 21, 362 and the average household size was 2.21 PHH. The proposed methodology was accepted and the request was made to first fill up the vacant residential lots and if needed, reduce the vacancy rate to accommodate the population increase up to a growth of 3,500 people. The following items related to the 2040 projections were discussed: • The City of Jacksonville Beach is expected to add 3,500 people by the year 2040. • TAZ 400 will add 55 single-family units. • TAZ 2001 will add 59 single-family units. • TAZs 199, 131, portion of 387, 390, 391, 396, and half of 397 will develop adding multi-family units at a density of 20 to 40 units per acre. No alternative land use developments are expected to occur. One correction in the 2010 network was noted, to delete Coastal Highway Boulevard south of the Duval County line.

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December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

August 9, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

City of Neptune Beach 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Neptune Beach

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Amanda Askew (Community Development Director) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Neptune Beach is located in Duval County. Within the City of Neptune Beach the 2010 population was 7,037 and the average household size was 2.08 PHH. The proposed methodology was accepted and the request was made to first reduce the vacant units by half and then add additional single-family dwelling units on the available vacant residential lots. The following additional information was provided: • TAZ 372 add two single-family households. • TAZ 369 add one single-family household. • TAZ 373 add 52 single-family households. No alternative land use scenarios were requested. One comment was made on the 2010 network which was to remove Kings Rd as a collector. It does not function this way in the network.

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December 12, 2014

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Meeting Summaries St. Johnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s County And Municipalities Hastings Marineland St. Augustine St. Augustine Beach

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

July 16, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

St. John’s County 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

St. John’s County Administration Building

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Phong Nguyen (Planning and Zoning) Jan Trantham (Growth Management Department) Teresa Bishop (Director of Planning) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Terrel Shaw (HNTB) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

In 2010 St. John’s County had a population of 190,039. According to BEBR’s medium population projection, the population in the year 2040 is expected to be 377,000 adding an additional population 186,961. The St. John’s County staff agreed to use the medium projections. In addition, the average household size of in 2010 was 2.55 PHH. St. John’s County staff stated that the methodology was reasonable and proposed to analyze the data and provide us with the year 2040 household type and number of unit allocations by TAZ. Staff provided a list of approved development by TAZ. The same approach was taken for the development of an alternative land use scenario with the understanding that the population control total will remain the same. St. John’s County staff also agreed to review the 2010 transportation network and provide us with any needed changes.

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December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

July 22, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Town of Hastings 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Hastings

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Shelby Jack (City Manager) Pam Stevens (Land Use Coordinator) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The Town of Hastings is located in St. John’s County. The Census recorded a population of 580 in the Town of Hasting in 2010. The average household size in 2010 was 2.49 PHH. Prior to the economic downturn, plans had been submitted by two developers to develop two separate developments. The Town of Hastings has plans to annex the parcels to incorporate the developments within the city limits. The Bulls Hit Farm is located in TAZs 1375, and the Smith Property development is located in TAZ 2381. Following are the development impacts of the two plans: • •

TAZ 1375 192 multi-family units and 600 single-family dwelling units and 11.3 acres of commercial development. TAZ 2381 489 single-family dwelling units and 75,500 square feet of commercial development.

No alternative land use scenarios were discussed and no changes were needed to the 2010 network.

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Meeting Date:

N/A

HNTB Project No.

57564 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Town of Marineland 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Voicemail and email

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Contact:

Leslie Babonis (Mayor)

The Town of Marineland is located in St. Johnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s County. The Census counted a population of 16 in 2010, 15 units (6 occupied and 9 vacant) and an average household size of 1.83 PHH. It is assumed that no major changes will occur in Marineland.

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122

December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

July 15, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

City of St. Augustine 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, City of St. Augustine

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Mark Knight (Planning and Zoning Director) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of St. Augustine is located in St. John’s County. The City of St. Augustine had a population of 12,975 in 2010 and it is not expected that it will increase by much. The average household size reported by the Census in 2010 was 2.08 PHH. Development has been approved in the following areas: • • • • •

TAZ 1200 (Madeira) 375 multi-family units and 375 single-family units. TAZ 1280 360 multi-family units and 90 single-family units. TAZ 1281 455 multi-family units. All dwelling units which are not homestead exempt should be assumed seasonal by 2040. TAZ 1321 should add 250 industrial employees.

No alternative land uses were identified and there are continuing discussions about transit systems but no consensus has been reached.

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

August 6, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

City of St. Augustine Beach 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, St. Augustine Beach

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Gary Larson (Building and Zoning Director) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of St. Augustine Beach is located in St. John’s County. Within the City of St. Augustine Beach the 2010 population was 6,176 and the average household size was 2.15 PHH. The following estimates were discussed: • • • • • • • •

The population is not expected to growth significantly. TAZ 1281 add 11 single-family dwelling units. TAZ 1284 add 72 single-family dwelling units. The City will more than likely annex additional property in TAZ 1281 adding 65 single-family units. The vacancy rate is expected to drop to 25%. Seasonal population is expected to remain the same. Condos are located in TAZ 1283, 1285, and 1287. All new residential development is projected to be single-family.

The 2010 network was reviewed and no changes were needed. Also there is no need to develop an alternative land use scenario.

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting summaries Clay County And Municipalities Green Cove Springs Keystone Heights Orange Park Penney Farms

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

July 11, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Clay County 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Clay County Administration Building, Green Cove Springs

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Carolyn Morgan (Planning and Zoning) Holly Parrish (Planning and Zoning Director) Jeff Beck (Clay County Engineering and Public Works) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Terrel Shaw (HNTB) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

Clay County had a population of 190,865 in 2010 and is expected to growth with an additional 124,835 people in order to match the BEBER medium population projections of 315,700 in 2040. The average household size in 2010 was 2.77 PHH. Clay County has currently nine developments of regional impacts that were noted as follows: • • • • • • • •

TAZ 1594 and 1595 Black Creek (withdrawn). TAZ 1452 and 1453 Oakleaf – Active with a total of 4,500 homes - built out (2010 shows 3,378 for 1452 and 4,310 for 1453). TAZ 1540, 1559, 1560 Saratoga 1,418 single-family units in each TAZ. TAZ 1567 Governor Park additional 6,000 single-family dwelling units. TAZ 1431 Pace Island (built out). TAZ 1433, 1434, 2301, 2304 Eagle Crossing (built out). TAZ 1438, 1439, 1441 Fleming Island Plantation (built out). TAZ 1486 Orange Park South (built out). TAZ 1502 Highland (withdrawn).

In addition, the following points were made. • •

Lake Asbury has a master plan outlining its development TAZ 1540, 1545, 1550, 1551, 1552, 1553 Besides Lake Asbury, development is expected to take place in the following order: o Next TAZ 1562 and 1567. o Last TAZ 1544 and 1596. • Commercial employment is expected to occur along Brannan Field Chaffee Rd and Blanding Blvd. • Industrial employment is expected to occur along US 301.

Discussions regarding an alternative land use scenario patterns included: • TAZ 1460 and 1466 along Brannan Field Chaffee add 1,500 multi-family dwelling units. • TAZ 1560 (Saratoga) redevelop at an increased density. • TAZ 1567 (Governor Park) redevelop at an increased density. Land-use along the commuter rail corridor would redevelop as mixed use at an increased density.

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â&#x20AC;˘

Orange Park Mall would redevelop as a mixed use transit hub at an increased density.

Discussion regarding the transportation network included: â&#x20AC;˘ A request was made to extend the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service to Middleburg.

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Meeting Date:

July 23, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

City of Green Cove Springs 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Green Cove Springs

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Mike Null (Public Works Director) Janis Fleet (Development Services Director) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Green Cove Springs is located in Clay County. According to the 2010 Census the population in Green Cove Springs was 6,908 in 2010, and the average household size was 2.71 PHH. The following growth patterns were discussed: • TAZ 1578 has a platted PUD (Magnolia) of 435 single-family dwelling units and an additional 119 nonplatted single-family dwelling units. • TAZ 1579 add 18 single family dwelling units and 89 multi-family dwelling units. • Reynolds Park redevelopment is located in TAZs 1586 and 1588 TAZ 1586 is expected to add 2,782 single-family dwelling units and TAZ 1588 is expected to add 1,136 dwelling of a total of 3,919 dwelling units. • Reynolds Park redevelopment will add 4 million square feet of commercial, 3.3 million square feet of industrial, 0.8 million square feet of office and 0.2 million square feet of institutional development. The amounts should be split so that 71 % is in TAZ 1586 and 29% in TAZ 1588. In the alternative land use scenario, mixed use development should be added around the commuter rail stations. Network comments: • There is a transit link (FT 49) that needs to be removed from the 2010 network. • A by-pass corridor around the Saragosa DRI should be added to the needs network connecting Oakridge Ave to US 17.

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December 12, 2014

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Meeting Date:

September 5, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Keystone Heights 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Keystone Heights

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Terry Suggs (City Manager) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Keystone Heights is located in Clay County. According to the 2010 Census the population in Keystone Heights was 1,350 in 2010 and the average household size reported by the Census in 2010 was 2.52 PHH. The following details were discussed regarding two developments which were started prior to the economic down turn: •

Temple development of 40 acres or approximately 200 single family units in TAZ 1602

•

Shema property (Sunrise development) of 12 acres adding approximately 50 single family dwelling units in TAZ 1604. In total we were asked to add 250 single family units, which would add 617 people to the population.

In addition, commercial development is assumed to take place east and west along SR 100 and north along SR 21. The City of Keystone Heights is actively pursuing expansions in use and development at the Keystone Airpark, which is owned by the City of Keystone Heights.

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

July 10, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Orange Park 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Orange Park

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Cindy Hall (Town Manager) Chuck Pavlos (Public Works Director) TC Amato (Economic and Community Development Manager) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Terrel Shaw (HNTB) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The Town of Orange Park is located in Clay County. The Town of Orange Park itself had a population of 8,412 in 2010 and the expectation is that this number will remain about the same in the 2040. The average household size in Orange Park was 2.26 PHH in 2010. The following observations were made. • • • • • •

The population in Orange Park is aging. A 120 unit senior center is being planned for in TAZ 1404. A retirement home is being planned for (70 acres) in TAZ 1393. US 17 and SR 21 are the major roadways through the community and are very congested. Commercial development is expected to take place in TAZs 1394, 1395, 2285, 2286. Mixed use development is planned to take place at the intersection of Kingsley Ave and Park Ave (US 17).

Both the senior center and the retirement home population will be added to the group quarters population in those TAZs. For TAZ 1404, the number of added units is 120, and for TAZ 1393 80 units will be added. Discussion regarding the transportation network included: • City manager requested additional information regarding the commuter rail study. • Converting the existing railroad row to a new roadway creating an additional overpass across I-295. • The increased congestion on the two major corridors through Orange Park is the result of additional development occurring outside the City limits.

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

August 5, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Town of Penney Farms 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Email Exchange

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Martina Kohler (Town Manager) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The Town of Penney Farms is located in Clay County. In 2010 the Town of Penney Farms had a population of 749 people and an average household size of 1.61 PHH. No changes are expected to occur in the number or the make-up of the population. Meeting Date:

August 29, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Town of Penney Farms 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Phone Conversation

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Bob Rigel (CEO Penny Retirement Community) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

Mr. Rigel projection would be to expect the retirement community to grow by a 100 individuals and add somewhere between 50 to 75 units. Meeting Date:

N/A

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Town of Penney Farms 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Voicemails

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Contacts:

George Egan (CEO Reinhold Corporation) Cooper Murphy (VP Shadowlawn Operations)

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December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Baker County And Municipalities Glen St. Mary Macclenney

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

July 9, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Baker County 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

North Florida TPO

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Ed Preston (Baker County) Maurice Postal (Baker County) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Terrel Shaw (HNTB) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The population in Baker County in 2010 was 27,115 and the BEBR medium estimate for 2040 is 39,000, predicting a growth of 11,885 people. The average household size reported by the Census in 2010 was 2.97 PHH. Baker County has agreed to using the medium BEBR projections and the following observations were made. • • • • • •

Baker County has a lot of conservations areas where no growth will be occurring. Referring to the maps in the appendices, these are TAZs 2401, 2411, 2413, and 2428. Development is assumed to take place along US 90 and I-10. Preapproved development of 6,000 units was previously (before recession) planned for TAZ 2402. These were assumed to single-family units. There is a prison in TAZ 2404. TAZ 2407 is primarily multi-family Industrial type of development (warehouses) is assumed to occur in TAZs 2404, 2407 and 2429.

The average household size in Baker County in 2010 was 2.97 PHH. The additional households will be placed in TAZ 2402. Discussions concerning an alternative land-use forecast focused on land-use development related to industrial employment included: •

Warehouses and distribution centers are the “expected” land-uses. The goal would be to reduce the percentage of people having to commute to Jacksonville for employment opportunities. If additional industrial employment is added to TAZs 2404, 2407 and 2429 then some of the projected single-family units could be changed to multi-family units and added to TAZ 2407.

Transportation network changes discussed included: • Eddy Road needs to be removed from the network. It is a dirt road that will never be paved (going through conservation area).

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

September 9, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Town of Glen St. Mary 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Phone Conversation

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Donna Loadholtz (Town Clerk) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The Town of Glen St. Mary is located in Baker County. In Glen St. Mary, the population was 437 in 2010 and the average household size was reported to be 2.46 PHH. The total number of housing units reported by the Census in 2010 was 188 of which 178 were occupied and 10 vacant. No major changes are expected to take place in Glen St. Mary.

Meeting Date:

August 2, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Macclenney 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Phone Conversation

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Roger Yarborough (Assistant City Manager) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Macclenney is located in Baker County. In the City of Macclenney the population was 6,374 in 2010 and the average household size was reported to be 2.77 PHH. The total number of housing units reported by the Census in 2010 was 2,335 of which 2,143 were occupied and 192 vacant. The City referred to the Baker County staff to obtain information regarding future growth patterns and roadway improvements.

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Meeting Summaries Putnam County And Municipalities Crescent City Interlachen Palatka Pomona Park Welaka

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Meeting Date:

July 18, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Putnam County 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Putnam County Administration Building, Palatka

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Lanny Harper (Planning Manager) Mike Brown (Planning and Zoning) Brian Hammons (Planning and Development Services Director) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

In 2010 Putnam County’s population was 74,364, in 2040 the population is projected to be 79,400, adding 5,036 people. The average household size in 2010 was 2.51 PHH. Due to the economic downturn, Georgia Pacific closed one of its plants in Putnam County, which eliminated 500 mostly industrial employment positions in TAZ 2461. Another Georgia Pacific facility and the hospital are the two major employers in Putnam County and located in TAZ 2469. Growth in the County will be dependent on employment opportunities as well as expansion of the water and sewage system. The following possibilities of growth were discussed: • The first phase of the sewage and water service area expansion is expected to result in growth in TAZ 2476. • Additional growth is expected to take place along SR 207 in TAZs 2475 and 2477. • A Walmart Distribution Center is expected to add industrial employment in TAZ 2489. No alternative land-use scenario is planned for and there were no comments on the 2010 highway network. A requested network improvement was replacing the two-lane section on SR 20 with four lanes.

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

August 16, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

City of Crescent City 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Crescent City

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Patrick Kennedy (City Manager) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Crescent City is located in Putnam County. In 2010, the population in Crescent City was 1,577 people and the average household size was 2.30 PHH. The following assumptions were made about the future population projections in Crescent City: • The population is expected to grow by 500 people by 2040. • Most of the growth is expected to occur in TAZ 2484 and TAZ 2485. • TAZ 2484 will add 72 multi-family units (condos). • If the Walmart distribution center is built in TAZ 2489, then more multi-family units are to be anticipated in TAZ 2482 and 2486. The 2010 network was reviewed and the following comments were received: • The centroid connector for TAZ 2486 needs to be corrected. It is currently coded as a divided arterial. • The City of Crescent City is planning for a bike system running parallel to US 17 on the local street system. • The Ride Solution bus service should be extended past Crescent City to the Flagler county line in order to provide service to housing community right on the Putnam and Flagler county line. As an alternative land use scenario, a ferry system was discussed between Flagler County and Crescent City across Crescent Lake which would improve the east – west mobility. Additional focus on kayaking and recreational use of Crescent Lake and Lake Stellar could change the development patterns of Crescent City.

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

August 16, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Town of Interlachen 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Town Hall, Interlachen

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Pam Wilburn (Town Clerk) Richard Glover (Public Works Supervisor) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The Town of Interlachen is located in Putnam County. In 2010 the population in the Town of Interlachen was 1,403 people and the average household size was 2.48 PHH. The current growth rate in Interlachen is about three single-family units a year. Staff did not expect a change in this pattern. Therefore: • Three permits a year over 30 years would be 90 single-family units. • The growth is expected to take place in TAZ 2460. No alternate land use plans are expected or planned. The 2010 network was reviewed and it was requested to four-lane the two lane section of SR 20 in the future year networks.

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Meeting Date:

August 16, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 – North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Palatka 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

City Hall, Palatka

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

Thad Crowe (Planning Director) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The City of Palatka is located in Putnam County. The City of Palatka had a population of 10,558 and the average household size was 2.43 PHH. Palatka will grow by about 3, 000 people. The staff has provided direction to reduce the vacancy rate by a third and next assume that all vacant lots will be built out and new development will occur in the newly annexed southeast portion of TAZ 2474. Following are some of the assumptions that were made regarding the growth pattern: • • • • • • •

The City of Palatka has been annexing commercial parcels but not residential, resulting in irregular City boundaries. By 2040 the City will be expected to incorporate all the lots within the current outer boundary. TAZ 2474 has an approved PUD (Cypress Mills) add 86 multi-family units and 10 single-family units. TAZ 2474 is expected to be annexed and that would add 2,000 single-family units. TAZ 2467 and 2473 are expected to grow first. Assume 25% multi-family units and the rest single-family units. TAZ 2494 would only add single-family units. TAZ 2468 has a large wetland area in the southeast portion, and the north east portion will be developed industrial. TAZ 2451 is primarily wetland.

No alternative land use was identified. The 2010 network was reviewed and the following comments were made: • • •

Moody Road should be added as a collector from SR 100 to Silver Lake. Palm Ave should be added as a collector from SR 100 to Silver Lake. St. John’s Ave should be added as a collector from the River to SR 20.

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December 12, 2014

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Meeting Date:

August 12, 2013

HNTB Project No.

57564 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Pomona Park 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Teleconference

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Attending:

John Bergquist (Mayor) Denise Bunnewith (North Florida TPO) Jeanette Berk (HNTB)

The Town of Pomona Park is located in Putnam County. In 2010 the population in Pomona Park was 912 people and the average household size was 2.53 PHH. No changes are expected to take place in population. The population has remained steady and is predicted to stay the same, around 912.

Meeting Date:

N/A

HNTB Project No.

57564 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; North Florida TPO 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

Meeting Name:

Welaka 2040 Socio Economic Data Forecasts

Location:

Voicemail and email

Purpose:

Discuss Forecasting Methodology

Contact:

Judy Jones (Town Clerk)

The Town of Welaka is located in Putnam County. The Town of Welaka had a 2010 population of 701 and the average household size was 2.14 PHH. According to the 2010 Census, the number of housing units was 578 of which 327 were occupied and 251 vacant. It is assumed that no major changes will occur in Welaka.

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December 12, 2014

Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

APPENDIX B: REVIEW COMMENTS

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Teleconference for Duval and Baker Counties January 08, 2014 Subject:

Comments on Draft Socioeconomic Data Report and Meeting Summary Notes

Calls were made to Ed Preston (Baker County) and Salem Soliman (City of Jacksonville) but neither party expressed a need to discuss the socioeconomic methodology and forecasts nor roadway improvements. In subsequent calls with the City of Jacksonville staff, we were requested to accommodate the Davis/9B development of 5 million square feet of commercial development and 1,115 single family units are expected to be in place in the year 2040. The TAZ in which this development data is placed is TAZ 498. In coordination with the City a rate of 14 employees per acre was assumed, which added 1,596 commercial employees and a household size of 1.94 was used, which results in a population of 2,163. The roadway system associated with the development is reflected in the appropriate networks.

Teleconference Putnam County January 10, 2014 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM

Invited (Names in bold participated in teleconference) Putnam County: • Lanny Harker • Mike Brown, • Brian Hammons City of Palatka • Thad Creow City of Interlachen: • Pamela Willburn • Richard Glover City of Welaka • Judy Jones City of Pomona Park • Cindy Hair City of Crescent City • Patrick Kennedy Northeast Florida TPO • Denis Bunnewith • Milton Locklear Subject:

Comments on Draft Socioeconomic Data Report and Meeting Summary Notes

The socioeconomic forecasts were discussed and no changes were requested. No comments were made regarding the meeting summaries.

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Several requests were made regarding roadway improvements. These were: • •

US-17 widen to four lanes from San Mateo to County Line New Bridge parallel to current rail bridge to improve east-west connections

Plum Creek development in Alachua County was discussed due its proximity to the Putnam County line. The widening of SR 20 is of great importance to Putnam County.

Teleconference Clay County January 14, 2014 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM

Invited (Names in bold participated) Clay County: • Holly Parrish • Jeff Beck • Carolyn Morgan • Mike Kloehn City of Green Cove Springs • Janet Fleet • Mike Null City of Keystone Heights • Terry Suggs • May Lou Hildreth • Susan Fraser City of Orange Park • Cindy Hall • Chuck Pavlos • TC Amato City of Penney Farms • Martina Kohler Northeast Florida TPO • Denise Bunnewith • Milton Locklear Subject:

Comments on Draft Socioeconomic Data Report and Meeting Summary Notes

The socioeconomic methodology and forecasts were discussed and no changes were requested. No comments were made regarding the meeting summaries. No requests were made regarding roadway improvements.

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Teleconference Nassau County January 14, 2014 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM Invited (Names in bold participated) Nassau County: • Peter King • Scott Hering • Taco Pope • Dough McDowell City of Fernandina Beach • Kelley Gibson • Adrienne Burke Towne of Callahan • Michael Williams • Shirley Graham Town of Hilliard • David Buchanan Northeast Florida TPO • Denise Bunnewith • Milton Locklear Subject:

Comments on Draft Socioeconomic Data Report and Meeting Summary Notes

The socioeconomic methodology and forecasts were discussed and a change was requested to change the number of housing units from 80 units to 130 units for TAZ 16. Also, the collector road going all the way up to Fort Clinch needs to be removed from the map since this road is not open to the general public. No requests were made regarding roadway improvements.

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North Florida Transportation Planning Organization

Teleconference St. John’s County January 14, 2014 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM

Invited (Names in bold participated) St. John’s County: • Phong Nguyen • Jan Trantham • Teresa Bishop City of Saint Augustine • Mark Knight City of Saint Augustine Beach • Gary Larson Town of Marineland • Leslie Babonis Town of Hastings • Shelby Jack • Pam Stevens Northeast Florida TPO • Denise Bunnewith • Milton Locklear Subject:

Comments on Draft Socioeconomic Data Report and Meeting Summary Notes

The socioeconomic methodology and forecasts were discussed and no changes were requested. No requests were made regarding roadway improvements. A follow call was made to St. John’s County and no changes to methodology or data was requested.

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