Issue 15 Knowledge Transformer Dec 2011 by Noviscape Consulting Group

15 ISSUE

Knowledge Transformer THE THINK TANK AND KNOWLEDGE REGIME IN THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN CONTEXT

KNOWLEDGE ACCESSIBILITY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PYRAMID

PRIVATIZING PUBLIC PLANNING INTERVIEW WITH MR. SONGSAK SAICHEUA 2010 THINK TANK INDEX

EDITORIAL

MR. KAN YUENYONG Founder, Siam Intelligence Unit

Thinking by the human brain can be directed to modify our environment, and the surrounding environment can in turn refocus our thinking once again. A single idea, however, may forever transform the world. The countries of Southeast Asia are transforming from resourced-based and labor-intensive economies and will soon transcend into knowledge-based economies. This transition will affect several aspects in country development, such as the degree of openness in their politics, and the use of knowledge-intensive management both in the private and public sectors. This change will finally have an effect on the pursuit of knowledge in overall society. Work will be changed from that of the blue collar worker into the interpretation of symbols and signals, figures and equations by the white collar worker instead. In this issue, as a frontier of knowledge industry, we will talk about the think tank in the first article. Knowledge, whether it be in any form of medium, in its pure final output from the think tank will definitely impact both public and private sector competitiveness in the long run. This article, however, discusses think tank behavior and its adaptation during this transition phase in the Southeast Asian context. Because of its lens on politics and geopolitics, the article will deal with the development of think tanks, their history, and all possible trends in the future to reflect their reality as much as possible. Mr. Songsak Saichue, Minister of the Royal Thai Embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia will add more from his interview as part of the history, development, and future of the think tank in Southeast Asia, while an infographic section takes a quick snapshot for an overview of regional think tanks. The second article talks about a long debated idea of constraint on providing an education for poor people at the Bottom of pyramid due to a regional demographic change and decreasing of international grant. This idea will lead to various development of Social Enterprise nowadays (BOP2.0). And it will not only change the regional economy, but also its socio-political landscape to reach the point of no return. The third article discusses the specialist outsourcing trend in the public sector, especially in urban planning sector. It argues that instead of using internal specialists, the public sector has tended to outsource more and more work to external specialists. This not only reflects upon the trend toward “smaller government”, but also raising a question on accountability, transparency and, capability on such outsourcing or public-private partnership scheme too. The current transitioning of the whole Southeast Asia region is ongoing, thus each country will face its own problems during the process; as stated by the well-known Italian thinker, Antonio Gramsci, “The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear.” We cannot view our destiny like a trend that will automatically lead us to a prosperous and brighter future. The question is yet to be unveiled about who will be the key player, and how it will be transformed.

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of Noviscape Consulting Group ot the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2011. All Rights Reserved.

The Think Tank and Knowledge Regime in the Southeast Asian Context BY MR. KAN YUENYONG Founder, Siam Intelligence Unit

IDEAS Think Tanks connect the academic world and policy making communities. They also transmute complicated policy research1 into layman’s language for policymakers and the public in general. They actively communicate their ideas in order to gain an impact on the public policymaking process through various channels (conferences, seminars, and discussion with key policymakers) and publications (books, research monographs, reports, and policy briefs).2 Moreover, they present ideas via writing op-eds, magazine commentary, and providing interviews for media as their most reliable tools. Normally, Southeast Asian think tanks engage on various topics of public policy, ranging from economics, public administration, international relations, security, and so on. Many think tanks engage on poverty eradication and inequality as economic development advocates. As long as these think tanks do not touch on restricted topics, such as on social structure of each of the respective countries, they continue to be allowed to propose alternative ideas to affect public policymaking process. In this paper, we will examine the ideal role and the future of the think tank in Southeast Asia, especially on public policy, the institutional context, and its relevancy to a changing socio-political terrain in the region.

SCENARIOS There are many agents within a supply chain of knowledge who range from political figures, academics, NGOs, journalists, independent scholars and think tanks that play a critical role in the public policymaking process. Think tanks in the US and Western countries context share a better advantage for policy advocacy. McGann (2007) has suggested that a philanthropic context and highly developed civic culture3 in the US thus makes American think tanks stay independent, while their counterparts in Central and Eastern Europe are doing very little planning at the beginning of their research projects and also lack clear methodology for

KEYWORDS:

Think tank, public policy, policy research, foreign relations policy, national security policy, economics policy, policymakers, public policymaking process, knowledge regime

achieving their desired change, which in turn undermines their credibility (Buldioski, 2010). In Southeast Asia, the think tanks have adopted some degree of this aspect from both American and Central & Eastern European think tanks, but with added explanation resulting from a different unique regional characteristic.

An Isolated island The 2010 Global Goto Report - Think Tank Index reviewed think tanks all over the world including Southeast Asia. However, there was no proper review on the current status of Southeast Asia think tanks. The report only describes incomplete information about think tanks in the region. For example, the report indicated that there are only 8 think tanks in Thailand (out of 1,200 think tanks in Asia), and some of them is now defunct, albeit with data collection from its network initiative led by Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its think tank, the Saranrom Institute of Foreign Affairs (SIFA), which could identify more than 16 think tanks active and operating within Thailand. Incomplete data caused by the inability to amalgamate sources of information can be improved by a close cooperation between global and local research initiatives. This tactic can also help transcend a different interpretation due to barriers of language and culture. Without complete data on regional think tanks, it is hard to identify systematic problems for the overall think tank industry. Furthermore, each think tank tends not to collaborate on research, setting up forums, thus failing to share knowledge together. Because of the current political crises In Thailand, local academics and scholars jump in to finding research on income distribution. This trend also brings well-known think tanks, such as the Thailand Development and Research Institute (TDRI), into further discussion on income distribution and inequality, which will finally affect overall country

A conventional think tank will engage on a broad social science research such as political science, economics, public administration, and international affairs, while some modern “boutique” think tank tend to focus on specific research area, such as environment public policy. 2 Modern think tank may use social media and website to increase its efficiency communication. 3 Philanthropy culture does not suddenly emerge in the US. It has a long development history; a remarkable milestone would be a written of an essay “The Gospel of Wealth” by Andrew Carnegie in 1889. 1

4 poverty improvement policy. However, due to a lack of collaboration among think tanks in the region, this issue cannot be gearing up to be a regional agenda item.

Deviation of function As mention earlier, internal politics in each Southeast Asian country has barred think tanks in this region from playing a role in introducing critical thinking in government public policymaking. Most of these think tanks have close ties with the government, or are academic affiliates. Some of them will suggest critical thinking in an area such as budget recommendations, but in order to keep their connection with the government they will abide by the social norm of not touching taboo topics (which has an effect on public policy analysis) in each country. In Singapore, think tanks try to avoid criticism of internal politics, thus they are keen on security issues and international affairs. The Track I inter-governmental security forum, The Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) held by a co-partnership between Singapore’s Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) and the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is an example. Meanwhile, the racial issue in Malaysia and the surrounding issues of lèse-majesté cases in Thailand have barred both countries’ think tanks from engaging on such debate4. But they can still suggest recommendations as long as they do not cross the taboo border line. Sometimes, they provide a mediator role to compromise between contrasting extreme discussions in the society.

EARLY INDICATORS • A conflict on controversial figures of the Bumiputra’s corporate ownership brought a surprise resignation from a renowned Directorship of the Malaysia Centre for Public Policy Studies (CPPS), by Dr. Lim Teck Ghee on October 11, 2006.5 Eyes of regional foreign relations insiders then browsed back into the politics of racial tensions in Malaysia. With globalization of ICT, Wikileaks uncovered an investigation by the US Embassy in Kuala Lumpur, under the topic of “Malaysia’s most prominent Think Tanks”.6 It has enflamed a recent debate on Malaysia’s online community.7 This is good example of a “Back to the Future” effect. • Talking has occurred on a collaboration initiative of a bilateral Thai-Malaysia think tank and scholar network. • A transition of the socio-political context in Southeast Asia and a need for alternative opinion on development and economic policy by both public and private sectors will lead to more creation of think tanks.

These think tanks may and will engage on public policy such as poverty improvement or the income distribution issue. But, they will do so without touching upon any discussion of the internal political structure, which is mostly a taboo topic in each correspondent country; such an effort cannot be considered as a sustainable approach, but rather a shallow form of policy suggestion. However, local research by people in the Pak Moon River region in Northeastern Thailand, with assistance from Midnight University scholars, opposed mainstream opinion on the development of the Pak Moon Dam, and may encourage a mainstream think tank to get more involved in investigating on such an issue. Cooperation between rural people and intellectuals in order to get more negotiation power may be a new trend of grassrooted based think tanks. ASEAN’s target to decrease the poverty rate according to a millennium goal will lead think tanks to engage more on poverty improving policy as well.

SIU and Muslim Center, Institute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University co-organize a public seminar “Lessons from Egypt Crisis: The Impact on Middle East and Thailand” at Chulalongkorn University on February 14, 2011. (c) Siam Intelligence Unit.

This is not a new thing or restricted to only a Southeast Asia context; offside engagement by Institute of Pacific Relations in the US during the1950s with China’s Communist Party took down its operation. It may be a lot safer to playing a soft approach while waiting for a policy window to open. The US will inevitably officially engage with China after that, but the challenge for the public policymaker here is how much is not too late too little? 4

5 IMPLICATIONS • Most of Southeast Asia’s think tanks depend for their financial sustainability upon government. Pulling support from the private sector may help by balancing their financial budget. But in the longer term, making advocacy or public education on the philanthropy concept to the Southeast Asian elite and business leaders, along with tax incentives also being considered, could increase the viability of independent think tanks. • Encourage a dialogue or debate with a research or knowledge basis, setting up a regional think tank forum and co-research among think tanks in different countries to increase think tank recognition. This approach will finally boost both the private and public sector to see the importance and need for a knowledge-based society. Public debate and discussion on policy will bring representative ideas from every interested group, which finally will help create a sound public policymaking process for society. • Promotion of quality assessment in research will help to increase think tank credibility, such as tools as the RAND standards of high quality research, and the RAPID outcome mapping approach which are helpful. More qualified and quality think tanks will bring in support from both the private and public sector.

DRIVERS & INHIBITORS

REFERENCES Buldioski G. (2010). Think Tanks in Central and Eastern Europe and the Need to Improve the Quality of Their Policy Research. (MA in Public Policy Thesis). Central European University, Hungary. Campbell J. L., and Pedersen O. K. (2007). KNOWLEDGE REGIMES AND COMPARATIVE POLITICAL ECONOMY. Retrieved from Laboratorio de Análisis Institucional del Sistema Universitario Mexicano. http://laisumedu.org/DESIN_Ibarra/desin/imagenescampbell/dos-d.pdf Chokerd P. (2011). Think Tanks role in country development. Retrieved from Siam Intelligence Website http://www.siamintelligence.com/think-tanks/ McGann J. G. (2011). 2010 Global Goto Report - Think Tank Index Unedition v15. University of Pennsylvania, USA. Retrived from http://www.gotothinktank.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ 2010GlobalGoToReport_ThinkTankIndex_UNEDITION_15_.pdf McGann J. G. (2007). Think Tanks and Policy Advice in the United States : Academics, advisors and advocates. Routledge, USA. National Center for the Dissemination of Disability Research. (2005). What Are the Standards for Quality Research? FOCUS Technical Brief No. 9 2005. Overseas Development Institute. (2009). Helping researchers become policy entrepreneurs : How to develop engagement strategies for evidencebased policy-making. Retrieved from Overseas Development Institute. http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/download/1127.pdf Rich A. (2004). Think Tanks, Public Policy, and the Politics of Expertise. Cambridge University Press, USA. RAND Corporation. (2011). Standards for High-Quality Research and Analysis. Retrieved from RAND Corporation. http://www.rand.org/pubs/corporate_pubs/CP413-2011-05.html Siam Intelligence Unit. (2011). Public Policy Making. Retrieved from Siam Intelligence Website http://www.siamintelligence.com/public-policymaking/ Siam Intelligence Unit. (2011). Songsak Saichue’s Interview on Think Tank and role on Thai Bureaucrat system regarding public policy. Retrieved from Siam Intelligence Website http://www.siamintelligence.com/ songsak-interview/

Drivers: • The increase of unforeseen phenomena and events or a new reality will need new conceptual thinking and explanation from think tanks, which journalists cannot cover. • Cross-cultural and global level management and coordination need a forum and networking space which is another function of think tanks. • An unveiled of classified source, such as Wikileaks, which will gear up social transformation and may need practical and timely public policy recommendations from think tanks.

Inhibitors: • It is easy for a think tank to have their operation shutdown when it comes across a taboo topic in their country, whether by legal or political pressure. If such an event happens, it will slow down the overall progressive initiative of the whole think tank industry.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Kan Yuenyong is a co-founder and executive director of Siam Intelligence Unit (SIU) http://www.siu. co.th, an alternative think tank and research service on various social, environment, business and economic issues. He is now studying in the advanced certificate course on Promotion of Peaceful Society (class 3) at King Prajadhipok’s Institute. He was selected by The Friedrich Naumann Foundation to represent Thailand in seminars on Strategic Planning and New Public Management in 2009, held at the International Academy for Leadership, Germany. He formerly worked at Internet Thailand Public Company Limited.

He published his well-researched paper regarding an outcome of economic development and inequality issues among race which was conducted by the Government of Malaysia. Based on the race idea; government of Malaysia’s New Economic Policy (NEP) tried to target increasing economic distribution proportion among Bhumibutra, other race and foreigner from 2.4%, 33%, and 63%; to be 30%, 40% and 40% accordingly. But, Dr. Lim provided different conclusion which was proposed by the government of Malaysia. In order to maintaining a justification of NEP and their race preserving policy, the report was criticism on using incorrect data, some politician called the report was garbage, Dr. Lim then was distanced from CPPS and led to his resignation. Read his resigned paper at http://www.jeffooi.com/CPPS_Resignation_statement_111006.pdf. 6 http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=07KUALALUMPUR495 7 http://www.malaysia-today.net/mtcolumns/43422-wikileaks-malaysias-most-prominent-think-tanks 5

6 BY MR. BANK NGAMARUNCHOT

AND MR. KITTIPONG RUEANTHIP

IDEA A relationship between ‘knowledge accessibility’ and ‘poverty reduction’ has been extensively studied by a number of renowned economists.1 Most recent studies have shown that both of them have a close relationship to each other. That is, as knowledge accessibility is decreased, reduction in poverty tends to decline (increase in poverty) too, and vice versa. This is because ‘poverty’ is a significant cause and consequence of the inaccessibility of knowledge and education. Inaccessible education also eventually obstructs the poor from escaping from their poverty trap, as many people have named this situation a ‘vicious cycle’.

Knowledge Accessibility

at the Bottom of the Pyramid KEYWORDS:

Knowledge society; knowledge diffusion; educational quality and opportunity; demographic change; foreign aid; vicious cycle; bottom of the pyramid of the Education Council of Thailand attempted to create an educational reform in the next decade which will focus mainly on quality of education, for instance, teacher quality, quality of schools, universities and education centers, and the quality of school management.5 Such attempts have shed some light on educational quality and given us some hope that it will be better in the near future.

Hence, it can be argued that one of the most effective ways to deal with the poverty problem is by targeting more education, in term of both quality and quantity, to the poor. Currently, there have been some weak signals regarding the development of education in the near term. All of these issues have had a critical impact on changing the accessibility to the knowledge system at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP).

Education may somewhat improve, though slowly. Trends in education development would be more concentrated on quality than quantity, and might face more problems since 1) an older age population structure could force political parties and public agencies to launch policies which benefit the old rather than the young, 2) grants from international agencies to improve the education system in SEA countries tend to be deducted, and 3) the BoP2.0 concept is still ignored since many people still consider the poor as only a cheap labor and/or consumer source, while indeed they have sufficient social capital and capability to become successful entrepreneurs.

SCENARIOS

Constrictive Pyramid of population structure and its impact on government policies:

Education Reform in Southeast Asia: The Time for Quality ‘Quality of Education’ is one of the most important problems of the education system in Southeast Asia (SEA). Most of the countries in this region share the same problem, which is a lack of quality teachers and a sufficient amount of teachers. By the way, the specific details of the problem vary among each of the countries, for instance, there are relatively low salaries for teachers in the Philippines, low social status for teachers in Indonesia, and a lack of teaching materials in both Vietnam and Laos.2 Although many studies have shown an improvement in educational access in the East Asia region, quality of education is still the key problem and has lots of room to improve. In the SEA region, there are many countries, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, where their students obtain low international test scores on average.3 And, according to Hanushek and Wobmann studies, they have found that such countries in which their students have low test scores there is a high probability of having lower economic growths rate than in those countries in which their students have high international test scores.4 The problem about education quality has gained more attention from both national and international agencies. For example, the Office 1 2 3 4 5

For instance, David Romer, N. Gregory Mankiw and Eric A. Hanushek Chapman and Adams, 2002 PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) score Hanushek and Wobmann, 2007 Wongsamarn, 2011

In next decade, the population age structure in Thailand and Singapore will shift to a ‘constrictive pyramid’ type in which the older age population shares a large proportion in the age structure diagram. In terms of political economy, the coming of the aging society especially in countries dominated by a democracy system could lead to changes in the pattern of resource allocation in the way that it would distribute higher benefits to older people. This is because a large retirement group of citizens would demand more and vote for the policies which essentially offer more advantages to the elderly, for instance, higher post-retirement benefits. Therefore, the concentration of government budget on child education in the near future may be restricted or grow more slowly than at present.

Declining international aid: Developing countries have to be concerned more about education quality because the way to gain international grant-in-aid is changing toa more difficult procedure. In the past, it was believed that granting international aid to undeveloped countries to help their poor people was one of the most effective ways to support those countries. 6 However, after implemented aid to many countries, it was discovered that poor offering aid regulations severely led to corruption and ineffective aid management in the countries that received the windfall aid.

7 In case of SEA countries, BoP2.0 perspective can effectively occur from tourist and services sector or other particular sector (i.e. agricultural sector) which highly related to local people’s way of living. This is because SEA is one of the regions which have their own unique culture and resources. Tourism and products which closely related to the culture8 has a high chance to grow and generate higher income for the poor who has skill related to this production and/or services.

EARLY INDICATORS • Better quality and quantity of education: In the last decade, there are many indicators that have provided a good signal of improvement in quantity of education, for instance, higher years of schooling on average and a larger proportion of children who have attained a primary and secondary school education. Overall, it may be predicted that quantity of education will have fewer problems in the future. • More financing in education from the private sector: In recent years, educational microfinance was introduced by the private sector into the educational loan system in many developing countries (i.e. Ghana) due to government budget limitations.

The Class Pyramid, Source: www.iww.org

And, eventually, the poor in those countries gained only a small portion of benefits from international aid.7 Nowadays, it is widely accepted that international aid is still important for developing countries; however, well-designed aid offering regulation is the point which should not be overlooked in order to avoid some adverse effects of granting. According to more aid offering regulations, developing countries are forced to improve their management system for gaining aid. For SEA countries, we may gain a smaller amount of international aid since we are considered as better developing countries compared to countries in Africa. Then, it is the time for us to mainly depend on market mechanism in our countries and solve the problem of educational accessibility via the market system, such as witha microfinance program, in the future.

• More variety of financing methods for education from the government sector: In some countries in SEA, a new educational financing model from the government sector was introduced to support the poor to access educational loans, for instance, the Income Contingent Loan (ICL) Program which was a pilot project in 2005 and is being implemented by the current Thai government. • Higher opportunity of information access via consumption: Thanks to the lower cost of communication devices and services, nowadays low income people can more easily access important information from using the internet via mobile and/or personal computers. • More recent evidence has shown that local people and communities, that normally have low income and education, can become productive and effective entrepreneurs. This success story can also be found in many countries in East Asia, such as Taiwan, Japan and Thailand.9

BoP2.0: Empowering the poor to become strong entrepreneurs: Since most of the poor have a lack of opportunity to continue their education at a high level (above high school level) due to financial discomfort in their family, SEA educational institutions, such as the university, may not be able to offer knowledge and/ or increase the chances for the poor effectively. Therefore, at least in the short-run, knowledge diffusion to Bottom of Pyramid (BoP) has to be supported by other mechanisms, for instance, learning via consumption driven, via production, and through entrepreneurship driven methods (BoP2.0). For BoP2.0, it is a recent development idea which attempts to support the poor to become effective entrepreneurs through some particular channels, such as cooperation with the private sector. From this idea, the local community can become the local firm that applies its social capital (i.e. local knowledge) to produce unique local products and operate business with other professional firms.

Workers at Thai cashew factory Some rights reserved by madaboutasia

One of the famous economists who support granting an international aid is Jeffery Sachs. For more Sachs’s argument and drawbacks (See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNWzYy186W8 and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/aid-ironies_b_207181.html) 7 Some economists who argue the negative effect of international aid are DambisaMoyo and William Easterly. For more empirical evidence, please see ‘Dead Aid’ book written by D. Moyo. (Easterly, 2003) (Easterly, Revine and Roodman, 2000) and (Easterly , The big push Deja Vu, 2006) 8 A culture related product in case of some developed European countries is wine, for instance. This is because when people consume wine, they do not just drink it, they also consume the way of production, history, and the culture behind it. 6

8 IMPLICATIONS • Improve pro-poor educational targeting program: Due to more budget constraint from both the national and international level, it is becoming more important to use the resources and/or budgets for an education for the poor more effectively by targeting educational financial innovation to support an extremely poor group through civil society and local community channels. • Enhance, educate, and launch more part-time programs and certify some working skills: enhance and/or educate poor people to gain higher working skills, create parttime educational programs for children from poor families (i.e. work integrated learning programs) and certify those skills that can improve their skills and knowledge in order to gain more income and a higher chance to obtain particular jobs. • Encourage the low income community to become an entrepreneur: Support people in such communities to become entrepreneurs, that can be achieved by knowledge transferred from participation from the private sector and/or pushing from the government sector.10 This process can lead to win-win situations in which both the private sector can benefit from goods produced by the local community with high value added, and local people can benefit from management knowledge from the private sector.11,12

DRIVERS/INHIBITORS Drivers:

• More studies and research regarding improvement of education quality: The government’s studies and policies tend to concentrate more on improvement of education quality, after an achievement of improvement in quantity and quality of education over the past decade. • Growth of pro-poor policies has emerged from median voters who have relatively low income: Demanding by the majority of voters, relatively poor and demand for the pro-poor policies13, was well responded by many political parties in last decade and are predicted to be well responded to in the future, at least in the short-term.

holds, low income parents tend to spend their income on their children’s education less than on consumption of entertainment, tobacco and alcoholic drink.16,17

REFERENCES Abhijit, B., & Duflo, E. (2007). The economic lives of the poor. Journal of economic perspectives, 141-167. Bagazonzya, K., & Todd, R. (2007). Experience in index-based weather insurance for agriculture lesson learnt from Malawi and India. Chapman, D., & Adams, D. (2002). Education in Developing Asia Volume 5: The Quality of Education Dimension and Strategies. Manila Philippines: Asian Development Bank. Debra, E., & Saiffudin, A. (2001). Hungry for tobacco: an analysis of the economic impact of tobacco consumption on the poor in Bangladesh. Tobacco control. Easterly , W. (2006). The big push Deja Vu. Journal of Economic Literature. Easterly, W. (2003). Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth.The Journal of Economics Perspectives. Easterly, W., Revine, R., & Roodman, D. (2000). NEW DATA NEW DOUBTS: A COMMENT ON BURNSIDE AND DOLLAR AID POLICY AND GROWTH. NBER. Hanushek, E. and Wobmann, L., 2007. The Role of Education Quality in Economic Growth (February 1, 2007). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.4122. Available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=960379 Erik, S., & Stuart, H. (2008). The base of pyramid protocol Toward next generation BoP strategy. Karnani, A. (2007). Eradicating Poverty through Enterprise. Karnani, A. (2009). The bottom of the pyramid strategy for reducing poverty: a failed promise. DESA woking paper. Marry, A. (2001). Impact of alcohol consumption on Asia. The Globe, 4-8. Prahalad, C., & Hart, S. (2002). The fortune at the bottom of the pyramid. Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. Sharma, R., Wirawan, A., Goh Chia Foong, S., & Win, Y. (n.d.). Bridging the knowledge gap in developing societies. Water and Sanitation Program. (2008). Economic Impacts of Sanitation in Southeast Asia. Jakarta: The World Bank. Wongsamarn, S., (2011). Direction of Thai Education in ASEAN community (in Thai). Avaiable: http://ird.oop.swu.ac.th/Portals/46/ASEAN%202015/ASEAN%20 2015_ONEC.pdf (2554). http://kv-lit.heroku.com/blogs/posts/457876.

วิสิฐกมล, น.

มือถือในป่ากล้วย.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

• Emergence of the non-governmental organization, which mainly focuses on empowering the poor through business participation: Many local NGOs empower the poor to gain stronger connection with private firms and support them to become entrepreneurs14 Although their impact nowadays is small, its impact will probably be more robust in the future.

Bank Ngamarunchot graduated from Chulalongkorn University in Master of Economics. Now, he is a researcher for the Policy Innovation Center of King Mongkut University of Technology [Thonburi] and a special teacher of Prince of Songkla University [subject: economics of politics]. For his nonacademic status, he is a writer, columnist and a member of the committee of the Senate House of Thailand.Harvard University, conducting research on infrastructure, technological development and innovation policy.

• Income Inequality: According to the data from WDI15, the share of income of the bottom fifth of income groups remained stable in many countries, such as in Indonesia and Thailand. This means that the poor are still poor, at least relatively. If more spending of household income on education is still the only way to gain a high quality of education, then a higher chance of the poor to get it is still going to be tough in the future.

Kittipong Rueanthip is a researcher at Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) in Sectoral Economic Program (SEP). His work at TDRI is mainly focused on topics of good governance in the healthcare system and telecommunication sector and unfair trade practices. In addition, due to his background of study in development economics, he is also interested in the issues related to poverty, inequality, agriculture, international trade and environment.

Inhibitors:

• Pattern of consumption of the poor: In many poor houseFor example, in the case of Thailand, a big push from government policy, namely OTOP policy, in 2005 encouraged many local communities to produce unique local products, working with a private firm (i.e. middle man and/or exporter) and sell their products in big cities in Thailand and export them to other countries. 10 Some examples of successive cases supported by the government sector have happened in Japan, Taiwan and Thailand. 11 One good example which can be compared to BoP 2.0 in Thailand is ‘One Tambon (district), One Product (OTOP)’ which attempted to encourage local community to produce the best single product based on their local skills and/or knowledge. 12 However, the point to ponder is that in many cases the private sector does not transfer knowledge to the local community, and/or local people cannot absorb the knowledge effectively. And, eventually, local people tend to be considered as only ‘products’ and exploited by firms (e.g.the case of minority groups in the Northern part of Thailand) 13 Those kinds of pro-poor policies are, for instance, higher minimum wage rate, free education and free healthcare etc. 14 For example, in one small city in Thailand, there is one businessman who attempted to bring local people, who have high skill of making particular handmade products, to produce local products in their own community. 15 World Development Index from World Bank 16 Karnani, 2009 17 Although this article supposes that weighting spending on children’s education is more important than consumption on in-merit goods, this article has no intention of telling anyone which way they should spend or not spend. 9

DR. APIWAT RATANAWARAHA Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Chulalongkorn University

KEYWORDS:

Urban planning, consulting firms, government downsizing, decentralization

IDEA Urban planning in Southeast Asia is generally perceived as the government’s duty. However, due to recent trends in government downsizing, decentralization, and the growth of the private sector, various functions and activities of urban planning are increasingly being conducted by private developers and consulting firms. This may seem to be an oxymoron, but the trend in privatized public planning has important implications for public accountability, transparency, and capability.

Vietnam is perhaps still an exception to this trend, as national and city governments continue to dominate the practice of urban planning and development. This does not mean, however, that large real estate developers will sooner than later influence the city’s urban planning process and outcome. Already in Ho Chi Minh City the planning and development of Saigon South, a 3,100-hectare project, was largely driven by private developers.

SCENARIOS

Planning by consultants, driven by decentralization and downsizing

Privatization of urban planning Urban and regional planning is generally perceived as the duty and responsibility of public organizations. In most, if not all, Southeast Asian countries, agencies have been established, first at the national level and later at the local level, to plan and implement urban and regional development. Urban plans aim to direct public infrastructure investment, while controlling and guiding private-sector development through regulations and incentives. Some plans are more sector-specific, such as transport and other infrastructure networks. Others are structural and comprehensive, integrating a wide range of issues from land use and housing to transportation and infrastructure. Although urban planning still largely remains within the government domain, the practice of various planning activities has been increasingly “privatized” in Southeast Asia. In the Philippines, for instance, large real estate developers, such as Ayala Land, initiated and produced development plans in Metro Manila on a city-wide scale, and implemented them with the support of local and national governments. Government direct subsidies and tax credits allow private developers to expand their functions beyond the realm of city development to city planning.1 Similar phenomena can be observed in other Southeast Asian megacities, where the sheer geographic and investment sizes of property development in suburban and peri-urban areas not only affect the outcome but also the process of urban planning.

The expansion of the private sector into the realm of urban planning is not limited to large developers but includes an entourage of consulting firms. In Thailand, consulting firms such as Team Group have been commissioned by the Department of Public Works and Town and Country Planning (DPT) to develop Comprehensive Plans for cities across the country. Some firms only conduct field surveys, develop databases, and carry out sector-specific analyses. Others take charge of the whole process of comprehensive planning, including conducting public hearings and consultation. The outsourcing is not limited to urban plans. A few consulting firms were hired to develop Thailand’s National and Regional Plans for the year 2057. The trend is observed not only at the national level but increasingly at the local level. The development and revision of Bangkok’s Comprehensive Plans were conducted by the internal staff of the DPT and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA), Bangkok’s local government. But the tasks of developing the two most recent plans have been commissioned to consulting firms, one of which is Krungthep Thanakom. Ironically, the firm is 100% owned by the BMA and was set up in 2004 so that it could manage the city government’s projects without having to follow cumbersome bureaucratic procedures. Concerns have been raised about the transparency and accountability of this arrangement, as somehow the firm often receives high-profile projects from the city.

10 The increasing use of external consultants has been driven by the policies of decentralization and government downsizing since the late 1990s. Before decentralization, the central planning agency was responsible for almost the entire process of comprehensive planning. With administrative decentralization, the function of comprehensive planning has been transferred to the local government, regardless of their existing capacities and resources. Also since the late 1990s, governments throughout Southeast Asia have attempted to downsize in an effort to reform large and inefficient bureaucracy. During 2002-2006, the Thai government set the target for reducing the total government workforce by 10%. Since then the DPT has steadily reduced the number of planners for its Bangkok headquarters and assigned new positions to provincial planning offices. Several local governments now have positions for urban planners. As cities and their local governments continue to grow, there is an increasing need for urban plans and planners. This demand is currently being filled by consulting firms. An increasing number of urban planning graduates now work for consulting firms, as there are few jobs in the public sector. A similar trend has also been observed in Indonesia and the Philippines. Since Indonesia started its decentralization policy a decade ago, local consulting firms have become more significant, especially in conducting planning projects for local governments. Malaysia experienced the growth of consulting firms in the 1990s when cities were required to develop Structure Plans. Now that most cities have Structure Plans in place, the role of consulting firms has shifted to other planning functions, including project development and design.2

More domestic consultants, fewer foreign consultants Foreign consultants have been hired in various capacities to assist in developing urban policies and plans in the region. Indonesia’s modern urban planning was heavily influenced by the Dutch and later American traditions of urban planning. In Thailand, the presence of foreign consultants in comprehensive planning dated back to the 1950s. With the funding from the United States Operation Mission to Thailand, the government hired American consulting firms to develop Bangkok’s first Master Plan. About three decades later, another group of American consultants were hired to develop another Bangkok Plan, which became the basis for its next Comprehensive Plan in 1999. The American presence in this field may have become limited in recent years, but consultants from other bilateral aid agencies have had a strong presence. Among others, Japanese consultants from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) have provided consulting services to planning agencies in the region, particularly on transport planning and land readjustment. The former German Organization for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and the Danish Cooperation for Environment and Development (DANCED) have funded several urban environmental projects in Thailand. In addition,

Various planning activities has been increasingly “privatized” in Southeast Asia - Some rights reserved by Isriya

consultants from AusAid have been particularly active in supporting urban planning initiatives in Indonesia. Back then, domestic consultants were hired only occasionally for specific technical aspects of planning, such as surveying and infrastructure engineering. University professors with overseas training or working experiences with foreign consultants were the major pool of domestic consultants. Few consulting firms would take on the whole process of urban planning. The situation has changed. Almost all comprehensive planning initiatives in Thailand now hire domestic consultants. According to the Thai Consultant Database Center of the Ministry of Finance, there are 200 domestic consulting firms and 4 independent consultants registered in the field of urban development. Furthermore, most consulting firms still hire university professors as advisors on a project-by-project basis. This trend is expected to continue. As local capability rises, local consulting firms will be able to take on more functions of urban planning. Nonetheless, foreign consultants will still be in demand for new technologies and applications for which local capabilities have not been fully developed, such as planning for sustainable infrastructure, disaster management, and climate change resilience.

ASEAN integration will expand the professional market An increasing integration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has important implications for urban planning practices and professions. Currently, due to differences in professional accreditation and certification, urban planners from one country cannot legally work in another country. Regional accreditation of urban planners would expand the market for private consulting firms in this field. Urban planners in Singapore and Malaysia would be able to find work in Indonesia and Thailand, and vice versa. In fact, at one of the meetings at the ASEAN Summit in Bali in November 2011, country representatives of urban planning professionals and educators discussed regional cooperation and harmonization of regulations governing the planning profession.

11 IMPLICATIONS Accountability Although hiring external consultants is not unusual for government agencies, there are potentially serious governance implications. One issue is with accountability. In principle, planners are accountable to the citizens in each city. However, as more urban plans are drafted and developed by private consultants, the issue of accountability comes into question. As most consultants do not live in the locality for which a plan is developed and usually leave the place once the plan is issued and endorsed, they have little personal stake in satisfying the long-term needs of local citizens. They are more likely to respond to the requests and needs of the planning officials who hire them. Even in cases where they are hired by local governments, consultants are not accountable once the plan is legally endorsed. They are thus inclined to take on only the minimum tasks required by their clients. In Thailand, for instance, the current City Planning Act requires at least one public hearing in a comprehensive planning process, so consultants may arrange only one public hearing to fulfill the requirement, even though several more may be necessary to comprehensively gather the public’s opinions and requests.

DRIVERS & INHIBITORS • If government downsizing continues, the role of private consulting firms will increase. • Decentralization will only increase the need for local development plans and planners. If there are not enough urban planning graduates, private consulting firms will continue to be commissioned to develop urban plans. • The integration of ASEAN will expand the role of private consulting firms within the region. But local protectionism and favoritism may substantially delay such integration.

REFERENCES 1

Shatkin, G, 2008. “The city and the bottom line: urban megaprojects and the privatization of planning in Southeast Asia” Environment and Planning A, 40 (2), 383 – 401 2 Personal communications. Indonesia: Dr. Tubagus Furqon Sofhani; Malaysia: Dr. Nor Haslina binti Hassan; Vietnam: Dr. Nguyen Minh Hoa.

Transparency Another concern with hiring private consultants is transparency. Without concrete evidence, it is impossible to measure the extent of corruption and nepotism in the planning consulting business. Nonetheless, it is rather well known in this field, at least in Thailand, that consulting projects with planning agencies often involve payment of facilitation fees of sorts to officers who are directly or indirectly involved in the project. The payment could be in cash or in kind, ranging from per diem payment to overseas trips. Some of these payments could be legitimate, but some are just pure rent-seeking. It remains to be seen how accountability and transparency can be improved with regards to the use of private consulting firms in urban planning.

Capacity building A more serious issue is with capacity building of public planners. As more planning tasks are outsourced to private consultants, public planners are left with administrative tasks. Although the amount of work may not be diminished, the focus is less to do with urban planning and more with project administration and proof reading. As technical aspects of planning are conducted by consultants, internal planners have little opportunity to exercise and improve their analytical skills. They could also be tempted to spend the budget to hire consultants to do the “tough and rough” work, such as public hearings and consultation, instead of doing that work themselves. This situation may be temporary in the case of Thailand, as the field of planning is transitioning and there is an urgent need for urban plans throughout the country. However, if this trend continues it could become a serious problem for planning practice in Thailand and possibly other countries. Planning schools and professional associations will have to play more active, critical, and leading roles for enhancing local planners’ capability, credibility, and accountability.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Apiwat Ratanawaraha is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, Thailand, where he teaches infrastructure planning and finance, urban management, and economic development. His current research includes projects on city innovations in Southeast Asian megacities, infrastructure justice, and inequality in access to basic services in Thailand. He has been a Visiting Assistant Professor at the Department of Urban Studies and Planning at MIT, teaching infrastructure finance and energy security. He was a Doctoral Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, conducting research on infrastructure, technological development and innovation policy.

INTERVIEW W

BY MR. KAN YUENYONG

Founder, Siam Intelligence Unit

Mr. Songsak Saicheua

Could you please give an overview of Southeast Asian think tanks? Think tanks in Southeast Asia that have major impact on global and regional level are located on Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, while think tanks in the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam can make some impact on global and regional level. There was some initiative on setting up regional network think tank such as ASEAN-ISIS which is now coordinated by Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) since 1988, but it has some limitations. Most think tanks in this region tends to have some link with either the government or university’s affiliate (or government influenced think tank), although they are some independent private think tanks such as Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) in Singapore, Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER), Asian Strategy & Leadership Institute (ASLI), and Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) in Malaysia. However, there is an increasing trend of private think tanks. These Southeast Asia think tanks, somehow, have some linkage with Asia-Pacific Network think tank as well, such as the long known Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC). This council was established by a renowned Former Thai Foreign Minister, Dr. Thanad Co-mand. It is an economic concentrated network of tripartite, comprised of technocrat, business person, and academic circle. Beside of PECC and ASEAN-ISIS, the Council for Security Cooperation in Asia Pacific (CSCAP) led by Australia is another regional network that concentrates on security issue. In ASEAN+3 frameworks, there are Network of East Asian Think-tanks (NEAT) initiated by China and Thailand; and East Asia Forum, initiated by Japan and Malaysia. But these networks are quite small since they have only 1-2 think tanks from each country as regular members. Shangri-La Dialogue

(SLD) led by Singapore’s Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a British think tank is another important security forum in this region. Therefore, there is room here to support the expansion and development of think thanks network among Southeast Asian countries. We may make more efforts to support ASEAN ISIS network and at the same time ASEAN countries may also explore the possibilities to set up bilateral think tanks’ network between themselves and may respond to other ASEAN countries to take part in that bilateral network. Think Tanks and Track II are very important in supporting ASEAN to move towards the ASEAN Community. It is also supportive to help bring ASEAN down to the people and to the public level more. ASEAN also needs think tanks to help in studying and suggesting some policy initiatives and some regional issues.

What’s think tanks’ role and their limitation

In Singapore, think tanks will focus mostly on international relations and security issue. Singapore think tanks also act like a regional hub for coordination with outside regional think tank as well. In Malaysia, besides ISIS-Malaysia, there are a few think tanks attached to the government agencies such as Malaysian Institute of Defence and Security (MiDAS) which is under the Ministry of Defence, and Maritime Institute of Malaysia (MIMA). There are also a number of research institutes and centers affiliated to the Universities which conduct both academic and policy research. In addition, there are also some independent think tanks such as the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) and Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS). One of the interesting points of Malaysian think tanks is a trend that some conglomerate group also set up and support think tanks such as the

13 Asian Strategy & Leadership Institute (ASLI) supported by Sunway Group and Institute of Blue Ocean Strategy of UCSI Group. Think tanks In Vietnam like in China, they are government linked, but with a rapid expansion, since their economic and development policy suggestions are needed by the government. Vietnam also tries to align itself in international arena, so they have to use these think tanks. Thai think tanks have outstanding in personal aspect, but lack of institutional management. Think tanks in Thailand still lag behind think tanks in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia or even in Vietnam. Most of research topics depend on researcher attention instead of systematic issue based. They are domestic oriented, thus lack of international perspective when compared to other countries in Southeast Asia. Low funding from the government and other sources is also another cause for not being able to command their own agenda. Hence they have to ask for international support for financially survival. At least, Thai think tanks should also provide Southeast Asia perspectives like in Singapore and Malaysia.

poor despite some rural poor, which is quite different from Thailand which is more on the rural poor despite some urban poor. Different economic policy should be provided on village that can sustain themselves, and that can link with globalization. Optional of private contract farming and cooperative support is yet to be reviewed.

What conditions will support think tank

1. Political environment, more open environment will support growth of think tanks. 2. Better institutional and financial management of each think tank. 3. Support from government and private sector and a transition to a knowledge based society. 4. A global business competition and economic competitiveness will drive growth of think tanks.

Thailand has a great potential to become a regional hub for think tanks in Southeast Asia. Thailand has a number of excellent scholars, researchers, thinkers and human resources. There should be more think tanks in Southeast Asian countries in order to help generate more policy research and study at the national, regional and global aspects. Think Tanks in ASEAN should have more collaborations and make more contributions to the ASEAN process and the Asia-wide regional architecture.

Think tank’s role on poverty improvement

Think tanks in Thailand, because of an open environment, have a great potential to conduct studies on poverty improvement and development policy. Some of them have already undertaken studies on how to tackle income disparities and poverty issues. More studies should be done, including more research on how to combine sufficiency economy and globalization. Suggestion on agricultural sector ratio compare to overall economic activity is also another interesting topic. Agricultural sector in Thailand contribute 7% on GDP, but the sector have to support to 30 – 40% of population, which can be considered as imbalance. In Malaysia, they have more balance economic sector such as service sector contribute for 57% of GDP and support 50% of population, while agricultural sector contribute for 9% of GDP and support the same percentage of population. Therefore, Malaysia’s poverty problem is more on the urban

ABOUT MR. SONGSAK SAICHEUA Mr. Saicheua is Minister and Deputy Chief of Mission of Royal Thai Embassy in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He has extensive knowledge on global and regional think tanks. He helped Saranrom Institute of Foreign Affairs (SIFA), Ministry of Foreign Affair’s think tank to setup regional and local think tank network. He used to prepare national policy for think tanks’ development in Thailand too. Prior to being posted to Malaysia, he worked as Deputy Director –General in Department of American and South Pacific Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana Dr. Apiwat Ratanawaraha Mr. Kan Yuenyong

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Regional Horizon / Environment - Scanning (HS/ES) and trend monitoring for issues relevant to people. life, and regional transformation across the Sotheast Asian region. Mr. Kan Yuenyong Dr. Apiwat Ratanawaraha Mr. Bank Ngamarunchot Mr. Kittipong Rueanthip

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Mr. Songsak Saicheua

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