Issue 5 Power Shifts May 2010 by Noviscape Consulting Group

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POWER SHIFTS The Unfamiliar War Fear & Symbols of Power The Dawn of Localism Interview with Dr. Pitch Pongsawat Cross-Impact Analysis

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LEADER

ISSUE 5 - POWER SHIFTS

Welcome to Issue 5 of TrendNovation— a monthly magazine devoted to discussion of long-term technological, social and political trends in Southeast Asia. Whilst our last issue focused on implications of the digital revolution and its influence on the political arena in Southeast Asia, the current issue continues by examining long-term shifts in power relations among key actors. These shifts have been triggered (or at least fuelled) by a number of global transformations, including globalization, democratization/digital politics, and the rise of terrorism. In his article ‘The Unfamiliar War’, Col. Dr. Teeranan Nandhakwang discusses how global influences are threatening the traditional close relationship between the military and political élites, and raising the level of political and economic risk across the region. He identifies new and uncomfortable challenges for the military in dealing with the unfamiliar threats of international terrorism as well as their role in the political arena.

By Wyn Ellis Chief Editor

Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana follows this with a discussion of geopolitical power, fear, and demographic change. He considers trends in power shifts, and the undermining of traditional autocratic government brought about by globalization and the explosion in grass-roots activism empowered largely by the Internet. In his commentary “The Dawn of Localism” Asst. Prof. Apiwat Ratanawaraha discusses the phenomenon of decentralization and its likely impact on Southeast Asia’s political landscape. He discusses its various forms or intensities (from deconcentration, to delegation to devolution) and perceives the trend as a mixed blessing. He predicts that whilst contributing to localization and grass-roots democracy, the continuing rise in local autonomy may at the same time generate more local conflicts, whilst not necessarily narrowing social inequity. TrendNovation this month interviews Dr. Pitch Pongsawat, a lecturer of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University. Dr. Pitch is a prolific newspaper and political magazine columnist, internet blogger, and co-producer of political commentary on internet television. Taking a geo-political perspective, he extends the discussion of decentralization and an increasing hunger for self-determination amongst Asia’s citizenry. Finally, the Trend Tool section considers another forecasting technique (crossimpact analysis) that focuses on the critical role of interactions among future events in determining the ultimate trajectory of complex systems. The technique can help elucidate the ways that multitudes of factors—technological, socio-economic, cultural, or natural—interact in complex systems to create the emergent properties of a future reality. This question has long challenged researchers, perplexed at inaccuracies or even downright failures in forecasts based on simple linear techniques such as extrapolation. TrendNovation is available online at http://www.trendsoutheast.org. As always, your comments and feedback are invaluable to us.

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The Unfamiliar WaR By Colonel Dr. Teeranan Nandhakwang, Deputy Director, Strategic Studies and Research Division, Royal Thai Army. The relationship between politics and the military in Southeast Asian countries has always been deeprooted, with military actors openly playing political roles on a diverse political landscape ranging from authoritarian military regimes to full democracies. Though in recent decades military influence on political structures has generally become less overt, it remains very much as a central pillar shaping power structures in the region. But how will this change in the future? Will military influences in the political arena wane under the pressures of Western-style democratization? Will armed forces be ready to face a journey of self-transformation towards the Western model- that of a ‘professional army’ whose role is restricted to shielding and protecting the nation state from external military threat? This article discusses some of the factors and trends that might lead to such a shift.

Figure 1: Modalities of nation states

tricate power games and granting of political favor to sustain the locus of political power and continuity of economic stability. The distance between political parties and the armed forces is considered a fairly good indicator of the overall level of democratization, and explains the emergence of different modalities (as illustrated in Figure 1).

Trend A: Democratization of Southeast Asian armed forces

However, over the coming decade we may witness an erosion of this broad playing field for the military in Southeast Asia, as greater transparency challenges the legitimacy of the convergence of interests between the military and political elites. Mounting social opposition and even distaste for the military’s history of supporting political elites have brought unfamiliar pressures that challenge the military’s traditional loyalties to the elites.

Elites of all political colors have long cultivated close relationships with the military, characterized by in-

The middle classes in some leading economies such as Singapore and Thailand appear generally con-

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the ofﬁcial positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.

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tent to see a role for the armed forces as a guardian of economic stability, and (in Thailand’s case) as a backstop when political feuds escalate to the extent that they jeopardize national stability and particularly, economic activity. In Thailand, for example, it is commonly observed that Thai society seems to yearn for a knight on a white horse to solve short-term problems by whatever means, without considering the longer-term repercussions. But today, this status quo is challenged by the growing power of alliances among less privileged middle income earners and the poor who, unhappy with widening income disparities, are undermining the existing political hegemony. As these new political forces press for a greater voice, an inexorable shift in the balance of power between the elites and the armed forces seems set to redefine the way the political pie is divided. Partnerships and accommodation between political parties and armed forces have always been regarded as strategically essential in the interests of both security and stability. With at least three major longterm flashpoints in the region, this is no mere rhetoric. Ideological confrontation remains unresolved across the Taiwan Straits and between the two Koreas, nuclear-armed India and Pakistan are at their highest level of confrontation since the early 1970s, and Indonesia- the world’s fourth-largest country- is facing major internal conflicts that threaten its very existence. How it deals with demands for democracy, decentralization and political and religious diversity could well influence the course of events in Asia and beyond. And the list goes on- the recent face-off between Japan and China over Japan’s arrest of a Chinese ship’s captain was a disturbing reminder of the many territorial disputes that threaten to re-ignite deep-seated historical, territorial, ideological, and religious conflicts in the region. It should therefore come as no surprise therefore that the Asia-Pacific region spends about US$150 billion a year on defense more than any other part of the

Source: http://dabbondanzo.umwblogs.org/globalizationeconomic-colonization/

world except the USA and the NATO countries. The stakes are therefore undeniably high for both politicians and generals - whilst domestic political forces clamor for greater separation between military and political powers, geopolitical considerations demand that the military and politicians close ranks in an unshakeable alliance to protect against these simmering and very real threats to regional security. How the region’s armed forces respond to such competing demands will be closely watched as a measure of the professionalism of the military as well as a bellwether of the risk of war or regional military conflicts. ‘Professionalism’ has become a buzzword in today’s military debate: what that really means might be open to wide interpretation.

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Trend B: An emerging paradigmthe new battlefield With the economies, resources and geopolitical significance of the ASEAN region and its trade routes, a complex strategic situation is emerging as China, Japan and India compete among themselves for military and economic advantage over their lucrative backyard, and in a more united challenge to the dominance of the USA in the region. This of course is only to be expected. However, the ascent of radical fundamentalism has brought disruptive and irrevocable change that significantly raises the political and economic risk across the region. Their methods have exposed the impotence of both politicians and military forces to deal with non-traditional threats that do not fit with traditional set-piece battle strategies. Military strategies, designed for battle with a visible, identifiable enemy in a specific location, have been blown asunder by 9/11 and subsequent attacks around the world.

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ASEAN’s aspirations to become a single economic community by 2015 are underpinned by expectations that harmonization will catalyze greater cohesion among its peoples at all levels- culturally, politically, commercially and militarily. However, this free flow of trade and labour mobility will increase the burden on security forces to deal with transnational crimes, particularly narcotics, people trafficking and terrorism. Thailand may face the brunt of a new wave of these activities due to its strategic location at the hub of Southeast Asia. These two trends- democratization and the emergence of non-traditional security threats- carry profound implications for the role of the military around the region. In the domestic arena, the military’s role in politics and in society at large will come under greater scrutiny, and on the regional scene, there seems to be no alternative to ramping up the level of regional cooperation, especially among national intelligence services, in order to deal with the growing threats to economic security, and provide effective regional mechanisms for mediating in national conflicts among ASEAN member states.

Globalization and greater freedom of movement have facilitated the ease with which terrorist movements can operate in their attempts to destabilize Western political and economic confidence; their tactics have proved remarkably effective in creating a climate of fear and economic insecurity. The shortcomings of traditional military strategy are exacerbated in Asia by the weaknesses of the kind of regional security mechanisms that serve as a safety net in the European arena. The Asian economic crisis of 1997–1998 was a transformational event in Southeast Asia that derailed attempts to establish a role for ASEAN as a regional security organization, as well as placing a severe strain on national defence budgets. The crisis left ASEAN states with a sorely diminished ability to counter security threats, both traditional and non-traditional.

Source: http://no-pasaran.blogspot.com/2005_04_17_archive.html

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Fear & Symbols of Power By Dr Pun-Arj Chairatana, Managing Director – Noviscape Consulting Group

The nature of power has always held humanity in thrall, seemingly eluding all attempts at definitive analysis. Mainstream social scientists have conceptualized power through various prisms such as institutional structures, resources, paths, positioning, control, domination, addiction, influence, and empowerment. However, such approaches may fail to fully capture the dynamism of the diverse power relations among humans.

Fear at the top For the next decade at least, classical power-juggling between the establishment and their opponents in Southeast Asia is unlikely to favor the nurturing of “people power”. To the contrary, we can readily anticipate a higher degree of State control as a response to multiple threats to the status quo. Still, the region is already feeling the wind of democratization, particularly in such fundamental areas as the restructuring of constitutions and laws covering

Power is generally defined according to perception or by how we encounter it. Interestingly, for the last millennium, symbols of power have co-evolved across many different civilizations as a means of avoiding the need to actually exercise that power. Such symbols include linguistic codes and patterns of communication for specific audiences. Political symbolism emerged early as a representation of a political standpoint, and is regarded as a footprint of civilization. We all have direct experience with such symbols as flags, banners, pictures, or mottos. Some of these carry intuitive symbolism; for example, the red flag signals a range of meanings, from socialism or communism in Western cultures, to wealth, fortune, and elite status in Asian cultures. Fear of course is a tool to gain power. Those in power make humans their instruments of power through securing their obedience. In this article, we discuss trends in power shifts, focusing on emerging symbols of power based on the fear factor.

Parades are a demonstration of power, a demonstration of the army’s readiness Source: http://weapons.technology.youngester.com/2008/11/ tanks-rockets-roll-across-red-square-in.html

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human rights, basic access to public services, good governance and public participation. Such winds threaten traditional leadership structures (the ruling classes and the technocrats), who still enjoy privileged status. Needless to say, change is not always welcome and however one defines it, power is rarely relinquished without a struggle. Nevertheless, governments in Southeast Asia will be increasingly influenced by ASEAN and APEC. APEC in particular may prove an important forum for regulatory bargaining and political lobbying, while ASEAN will continue to face challenges in its efforts to emulate EU-style transformation. In light of expectations that Southeast Asia is likely to face more separatist insurgencies and terrorism, as well as possible escalation of territorial disputes, the region’s defense budgets continue to rise. Over the coming decade, the cozy relationship between the military and governments in the area of defense procurement will come under increasing scrutiny, amid demands for transparency and good governance. Governments are already feeling the pinch and responding with authoritarian measures. In Malaysia, the governing United Malays National Organization (UMNO) won the 2008 general election by a narrow margin, but has managed to retain control for over a decade despite heavy by-election defeats and internal instability. In 2010, the current Thai government cites national security as a reason for maintaining the state of emergency in Bangkok, declared last April. And in Myanmar, the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) recently announced a general election on 7 November, 2010. Despite their very different political and social contexts, such responses reflect the depth of the establishment’s fear of democratization, which, in demanding more accountability from political leaders, presents a real threat to their power base. To a greater or lesser extent, general elections will continue to be used as a fig-leaf over thinly-veiled authoritarian regimes. This will seriously hamper real progress in democratization. Nevertheless, the

Empire: illustration by Matt Wuerker is as concise a summation of the sociopolitics of war as could be presented in two dimensions. Source: http://cantseetheforest.org/2007/09/22/a-matter-of-semantics/

‘digitization’ of democracy is proving a potent force in stimulating political activism through social networks. It therefore seems inevitable that today’s hierarchical power structures will gradually yield towards a more horizontal landscape, characterized by more accountability, tolerance for dissenting voices, and new political directions. Fear will no longer be an instrument of command and control for the exclusive few, but will essentially be transformed through the process of “social flattening”, as those at the top of the Pyramid encounter more newcomers, themselves empowered and sometimes, to be feared. The new access to power, for example by grass-roots activist groups, and new models forms of power sharing that will emerge to accommodate the negotiation among actors, will inevitably be viewed with hostility by those who have most lose.

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Equation of fear

in Laos and Myanmar. In these countries, India and China will be the new super-powers, slowly edging out US influence.

While Southeast Asia societies are expected to become more egalitarian, the emerging conflict between the old guard and the new breed of political actors is likely to escalate, hampering the democratization of the region, but paving the way for new power platforms. By 2020, the region will experience drastic shifts in demographic structures: Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam will have more hungry mouths to feed, while Singapore and Thailand will become ‘grey nations’. The anticipated explosion of regional migration coming in the wake of the formation of the ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 will create a new recipe for regional citizenship, and new challenges to multiculturalism as already experienced by countries such as Malaysia and Singapore. The fear factor resulting from demographic change will undoubtedly shake existing power structures across the region and stretch the boundaries of ethnic tolerance, through new demands for public services, especially in education, healthcare, and freedom of speech. It is this fear that far-right movements in Europe have exploited to great effect in mobilizing support.

Of course, the ASEAN countries are highly sensitive to their dependence on India and China as the region’s heavyweights, and over the coming 10-20 years, it is to be expected that this fear will unify its member states in an attempt to generate come collective leverage. ASEAN may thus start to flex its muscles and portray itself as a new economic powerhouse, perhaps aspiring to assume a place at the superpower negotiating table.

The new single ASEAN economic community will become a key economic engine which will no doubt represent a threat to its northeastern neighbors. Geographically, Southeast Asia enjoys unique strategic advantages, controlling the continent’s international sea-lanes and air transport routes. With more new international airports (e.g. in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam) urbanization will increase across the region, and countries such as Myanmar and Cambodia will emerge as the next growth engines, particularly for labor-intensive manufacturing outsourced from Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and other Northeast Asian countries. Economic growth and power in this region will be based on exploitation of abundant natural resources in these countries and cheap labor costs in the Greater Mekong Sub-region, particularly

References Damrongchai, N. (2009), The Future of Science & Technology and Pro-Poor Applications, paper presented at Foresight for Smart Globalization: Accelerating & Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities Workshop, March 16-20, 2009, Rockefeller Bellagio Conference Center: Bellagio, Italy. Dosch, J. (2006), The Impact of Democratization on the Making of Foreign Policy in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, Südostasien aktuell 5/2006. McCargo, Duncan and Ukrist Pathmanand (2005), The Thaksinization of Thailand, Copenhagen: NIAS Press Putnam, R.(1988), “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games,” in: International Organization, 42(3), pp. 427-460 Prus, R. (1999) Power Mystique: Power as Intersubjective Accomplishment. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, The Malaysian Insider, various issues. Weatherbee, D. E. (2008) Political Change in Southeast Asia: Challenges for U.S. Strategy, in Tellis, A. L. and Wills, M. (eds.), Strategic Asia 2007-2008: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy.Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research: Tellis, A. L., Marble, A., and Tanner, T. (eds.), Strategic Asia 2010-2011: Asia’s Rising Power and America Continued Purpose.Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research.

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The Dawn of Localism By Asst Prof Dr. Apiwat Ratanawaraha, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Chulalongkorn University

Arriving in Southeast Asia somewhat later than in other regions, decentralization has nevertheless taken root in several Southeast Asian countries. An inexorable shift from centralized control is taking place, which seems likely to shape the political landscape for years to come. Decentralization efforts have taken various forms, ranging from deconcentration where functions and resources are transferred to subnational units, to delegation as local governments assume more responsibilities for providing services under central supervision, to devolution where central government transfers authority and power to elected local governments. The Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and to a lesser extent, Cambodia and Vietnam, have all formulated decentralization laws and policies, with the aim of increasing local autonomy to various degrees. Administrative decentralization is usually but not always followed by fiscal and political decentralization. Malaysia is a notable exception, which has retained its comparatively centralized political system.

Local business domination

Source: http://www.mybusinessfirst.com.au/local-business-domination/

Local autonomy will continue to increase Several factors explain the trend of decentralization in Southeast Asia. One is democratization, characterized by the downfall of dictatorships and greater tolerance of political pluralism. The government in post-Soeharto Indonesia faced the formidable challenge of provincial separatism and increasing demands for regional autonomy. With the alarming potential for national disintegration in the late 1990s, ‘big-bang’ decentralization to sub-national governments was unavoidable, and served as a solution that pre-empted possible massive violent uprisings and preserved the integrity of the State. Similarly, in the Philippines, the collapse of the Marcos regime energized local demands for greater autonomy, and the decentralization effort in this country is arguably the most extensive in the region. The rise of participatory democracy is another contributing factor. As people demand more direct participation in development and public life, decentralization of decision-making powers to local governments becomes increasingly hard to resist. Thailand’s 1997 Constitution laid a foundation for participatory democracy, and decentralization became a cornerstone of the movement for participatory democracy. The push by international donors that ardently support decentralization, notably the World Bank, is also a significant factor. Growing economies and rapid urbanization in secondary cities have also forced governments to accommodate rising demand for social services by deconcentrating administrative functions and responsibilities, as well as tax-raising and spending powers. Vietnam’s enactment of the 2002 State Budget Law represented a bold step

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towards fiscal decentralization, giving subnational governments greater fiscal powers to deal with burgeoning needs for public services. In sum, these factors make further decentralization in Southeast Asian countries almost inevitable.

Localization of political conflicts and cliques, but not yet accountability Decentralization can bring new problems, or worsen existing ones; the emergence of local power cliques potentiates local conflicts as never before. In Thailand, local elections for Tambon Administration Organizations (TAOs) are rife with reports of violent confrontation among candidates and supporters. Localization of corruption is also an inevitable part of the package as a result of discretionary power gained by locally elected officials. In localities where politics is based on traditional patronage relationships, cronyism is widespread. There is a joke in Thailand that its best paved roads usually lead to the houses of TAO leaders and their relatives. Nonetheless, proponents of decentralization argue that this is part of the learning process. In the longer term, local constituencies will eventually gain sufficient power to hold their local representatives to account. It remains to be seen, however, how long such a learning process might take.

Corruption

Source: http://www.contemporaryrelations.eu/1565/lack-of-political-will-thwartsanticorruption-efforts/

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Decreasing neutrality, increasing partnerships As decentralization continues, the norms of neutrality and impartiality of civil service as traditionally practiced in most Southeast Asian countries will inevitably come under challenge at the local level. Forms of local governments are likely to evolve in line with global, regional, and national trends, with an increasing significance attached to partnerships in public administration. As the influence of the ‘new public management’ dogma trickles down to the local level, local officials will increasingly act more like public managers than civil servants. The role of local officials will shift towards facilitating and supporting, rather than leading or directing. With decentralization, we may expect more local partnerships between non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and local governments. In the Philippines, NGOs have long been active at the local level. Curiously, this is less the case in Thailand, where NGOs have dealt more directly with the central government than with local governments. In recent years, however, more NGOs are working directly with local officials, and with increasing decentralization, this trend is expected to continue. Although we foresee the coming age of localism in Southeast Asia, it is uncertain that local governments will be able to contribute towards solving local development problems. Because of the intricacy and complexity of development efforts, local governments will have to enhance their resources, capabilities and their exercise of governance considerably before their developmental roles could be meaningful. They will also have to rely on the tight networks of governmental, business, and non-governmental actors at the national level.

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sian study finds worsening disparity between regions and schools in terms of educational achievement following decentralization. Fiscal decentralization may actually lead to reduced actual pro-poor resource allocations, as has been reported in the case of Vietnam. Although population growth rates are decreasing across the region, migration to large cities, particularly of young people is increasing fast. Decentralization efforts may help counter this trend, but migration to big cities will continue and economic prosperity will be spatially unequal as ever. Unless central and local governments implement drastic policy instruments to reverse the migration trend, the light of dawn of localism might never become bright enough.

Partnership

Source: http://www.hire-ability.com.au/index_sub2.html

Despite rising localism, regional disparities will not improve While decentralization to provincial cities and towns will continue, giving the local governments greater power and responsibility, megacities will retain control over economic and political power. This necessarily limits the potential of decentralization to reduce economic and social disparities. In a cross-country study, decentralization was not found to reduce regional disparities among localities in low and medium income countries, a finding that most likely will also apply to Southeast Asian countries, where regional disparities are large and growing. In fact, one Indone-

References White, R. and Smoke, P. (2005) East Asia Decentralizes. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Schroeder, L. (2003) Fiscal decentralization in Southeast Asia, Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 15(3): pp. 385-413. Hague, M. (2005) Reforming Public Administration in Southeast Asia: Trends and Impacts, Public Organization Review, 4(4): pp. 361-371. Rodríguez-Pose, A. and Ezcurra, R. (2010) Does decentralization matter for regional disparities? A cross-country Analysis, Journal of Economic Geography, 10(5): pp. 619-644 Toi, A. (2010) An Empirical Study of the Effects of Decentralization in Indonesian Junior Secondary Education, Educational Research for Policy and Practice, 9(2): pp. 107-125 Nguyen, H.P. (2008): What is in it for the poor? Evidence from fiscal decentralization in Vietnam, Journal of Public and International Affairs, 19: pp. 69-90.

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INTERVIEW with DR. PITCH PONGSAWAT AS MAJOR FACTORS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE BALANCE OF POWER IN SOUTHEAST ASIA? I think we should highlight two parallel influencing factors. At macro level, the most important factors are the relationships among the member states of ASEAN and between the region and the superpowers, especially the USA, EU, Japan, and China. At the domestic or micro level, domestic power struggles among people and their increasing ability to network and establish a political voice, will hold governments to greater levels of accountability. This of course will have an indirect effect on power juggling between the states and the supranational bodies. Democratization is therefore an important positive trend for the next decade, and I expect many countries to progress towards more democratic governance. However, the pace of change is unpredictable- it might be very slow, for example, in Myanmar,

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whilst in Thailand things might move far more rapidly due to the impact of digital politics. At the regional level, the leader in digital politics is Malaysiakini. Because of Malaysia’s strict censorship over the broadcast and print media, people saw online media as a freer and more promisingly alternative. Malaysiakini is a product of such a shift, and has grown into what is arguably the best-known online news website in Southeast Asia. Since the beginning, Malaysiakini presented itself as an alternative source of news and truth, often covering controversial issues and viewpoints considered taboo by mainstream media. Its readership continues to increase, even after the website started charging membership fees to view its content. Following in Malaysiakini’s footsteps, similar websites focusing on political and social issues have sprung up in other countries in Southeast Asia, including Prachatai in Thailand.

DECENTRALIZATION:

In my view, decentralization is a fundamental need that is taking root within the Southeast Asian establishment. The poor and vulnerable will benefit from decentralization, but this will be a slow process as central governments are reluctant to cede too much authority – or autonomy- to the local level (for example, in the process of budget allocation). Relatively speaking, the decentralization efforts of Indonesia and the Philippines have progressed to a greater extent than elsewhere in the region.

SELF-DETERMINATION:

We may also gain perspective on the power equa-

About DR. PITCH PONGSAWAT Pitch Pongsawat, a lecturer of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University is also a newspaper and political magazine columnist, an internet blogger, and a coproducer of political commentary internet television. Pitch’s publications include his 2007 “Middle-class Ironic Electoral Cultural Practices in Thailand: Observing the 2005 National Assembly Election and Its Aftermath” (in Chua Beng Huat. ed., Elections as Popular Culture in Asia, London: Routledge) and his 2002 “Virtual Democracy in Thailand: Information Technology, Internet Political Message Board, and the Politics of Representation in Thailand after 1992,” in Journal of Social Sciences.

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tion through the issue of self-determination. Progress towards self-determination will profoundly shape societies and individuals, and will challenge the dominance of élite regimes. Key mechanisms within this power shift are the ability to publicize and organize campaigns on specific issues, in order to hold governments accountable and act as a brake on their power. With such a high level of State control in many countries, it will take more than decade for societies in this region to reach a mature stage of self-determination.

WHAT WILL BE THE KEY POWER SHIFTS OVER THE NEXT 5 – 10 YEARS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA? Well, when we talk about power shifts we need to be very clear about the definition of power. Many people seem to look at power only from the empirical perspective, meaning that power is the ability to change other peoples’ minds or actions. But there are other ways of defining power. Power may also be seen as the ability to prevent other people from achieving what they want, and the ability to control information in order to divert attention from any issue, or turn it into a non-issue. When we talk about power shift, we the emergence of new political actors empowered through the internet as an example of the first definition- the power to disseminate information that can change people’s minds. We may view this as the first step towards grass-roots democracy, and certainly this is a major trend that has already changed the balance of political power in the region. But we also see examples of the second definition employed both by governments and by grass-roots movements, as they gain increasing negotiating ability and leverage to expose and frustrate the plans of governments or business interests. And yet, I am not an idealist, and am skeptical of those who believe that Southeast Asia will achieve full democracy over the coming decade, in terms of government by the people for the people. The third definition is not so clear-cut, and therefore potentially more dangerous. In its worst form we might call it propaganda. Nevertheless, increasing access to information and a more politically astute citizenry will tend to dampen the effectiveness of attempts to manipulate information to sway public opinion. Still, this is a potent mechanism that will become evermore sophisticated as politicians strive ever harder to win the hearts and minds of their electorates.

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TREND TOOLS Cross-Impact Analysis In complex systems, how do multitudes of factors— technological, socio-economic, cultural, or natural— interact to create the emergent properties of a future reality? This question has long challenged researchers, perplexed at inaccuracies or even downright failures in forecasts based on simple linear techniques such as extrapolation. In this issue TrendTools considers another forecasting technique that focuses on the critical role of interactions among future events in determining the ultimate trajectory of complex systems. Thodore Gorden and Olaf Helmer are credited with deriving the cross-impact method in the 1960’s. Using this method, forecasts are based not for example, on extrapolation of a collection of single trends judged as significant determinants of future scenarios. As its name suggests, the cross-impact method relies upon judgments about how such future events may interact among themselves- a fundamental departure from the deterministic research paradigm. Unsurprisingly, this ushered in a new era for futures forecasting, and the method has since found wide utility in addressing research questions in diverse fields, notably in conjunction with other methodologies such as simulation modeling. In reality it is hard to imagine how most events and developments pertaining to a given scenario could be truly independent from one another, and so in essence, the cross-impact method analyzes judgments of the probabilities of interactions among forecasted items. Early on in the development of the method, researchers quickly realized that interactions among events often held the key to increasing accuracy of forecasts. They also discovered that the process of exploring individual perceptions of such interactions itself offered a powerful way to develop plausible future scenarios. Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the ofﬁcial positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2010. All Rights Reserved.

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in large scale simulations; (4) a structured Delphi Conference for group analysis and discussion efforts; and (5) a component of a lateral and adaptive management information system. Today, the method continues to be refined, though questions inevitably remain, particularly over its integration with other methods. For example, research is still needed on how experts judge probabilities. Still, most observers agree that the method offers a powerful tool in elucidating pathways to the future through increasing our grasp of interactions among trends, hidden causalities and feedback loops.

This article is based on original work by Theodore J. Gordon and Murray Turoff. To learn more about the cross impact method: Gordon, T.J. (1994) Cross Impact Report. United Nations Development Program’s African Futures Project in collaboration with the United Nations University’s Millennium Project Feasibility Study – Phase II, 1994. Available at: http://www1.ximb. ac.in/users/fac/dpdash/dpdash.nsf/23e5e39594c064ee85256 4ae004fa010/2a7a6240bcf05ebde5256906000a7322/$FILE/ Cross-im.pdf

Though the cross impact method can be used alone in futures research, it is increasingly used as a complement to other methods. Such integration offers a controlled introduction of qualitative perceptions about the future into an analytical process which is otherwise deterministic in nature. Primary data for cross-impact analysis can be gathered through standard methods such as Delphi, questionnaires, or expert interviews. Potential applications of cross impact analysis are diverse. Turoff and Lindstone (2002) cite several examples: (1) A modeling tool for analysts; (2) a consistency analysis tool for decision makers; (3) a methodology for incorporating policy dependencies

Turoff, M. and Linstone, H.A. (2002) An Alternative Approach to Cross Impact Analysis. Reprinted from Turoff (1972) Technological Forecasting and Social Change 3, 309-339 (1972). Available online at http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ ch5c.pdf Fontela, E. (2005) Linking Cross-Impact Probabilistic Scenarios to World Social Accounting Models, International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, Beijing,China (June27 – July1). Available online at www.iioa.org/pdf/15th%20Conf/ fontela_cantuche.pdf Chao, K. (2008) A New Look at the Cross-Impact Matrix and its Application in Futures Studies, Journal of Future Studies, 12(4): 45-52. Available online at www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/12-4/A04. pdf.

Col. Dr. Teeranan Nandhakwang Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana Asst. Prof. Apiwat Ratanawaraha Writers / Information Specialist Worapol Paiboonbudsrakum Project co-ordinator William Wyn Ellis Chief Editor Pinchathana Atthiwatthana Graphic Designer Regional Horizon / Environment Scanning (HS/ES) and trend monitoring for issues relevant to people, life, and regional transformation across the Southeast Asian region.

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