Issue 6 Religion and Superstitions Jun 2010 by Noviscape Consulting Group

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RELIGION AND SUPERSTITIONS Overseas Chinese Shrines in Southeast Asia: Existence and Changes Making ASEAN a New Hotpot, Not a New Hot Spot

Religion vs. Society in Southeast Asia, Who is Winning? Interview with Dr. Soraj Hongladarom Casual Layer Analysis (CLA)

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LEADER

By Wyn Ellis Chief Editor

ISSUE 6 - RELIGION AND SUPERSTITIONS

Welcome to Issue 6 of TrendNovation Southeast- a monthly magazine devoted to discussion of long-term social, technological and political trends in Southeast Asia. The last issue focused on the influence of long-term shifts in power relations among key actors, triggered by global transformations such as globalization, structural realignment within the military, democratization, the rise of terrorism, and power struggles among old and new regimes. This issue considers the deep-rooted influences of religion on all aspects of society. Although people and societies across Southeast Asia have undergone massive shifts in value systems in recent decades, for many the glitzy Western-style veneer is skindeep. Traditional religions, superstitions, and belief systems are never far from the surface and still play undeniably profound roles in people’s lives and day-today decision-making, irrespective of education, title or social standing. These aspects of human development are rarely monitored, but they are nevertheless real and constantly changing. In his article “Overseas Chinese Shrines”, Dr Surasit Amornwanitsak discusses the co-existence of traditional Chinese values alongside superficially Western lifestyles and aspirations, and characterizes the resurgence of interest in traditional Chinese religious culture, particularly among Asia’s new generation, as a kind of ‘fashion trend’, driven in part by social pressure and social networking tools. Dr Surasit’s article is followed by a commentary by Mr. Navaphol Viriyakunkit and Mr. Samernai Pengchan, both of Sasin Consulting Unit, Chulalongkorn University. Their essay “Making ASEAN a New Hotpot, Not a New Hot Spot” argues that because of the intensified flow of people and mixing of cultures triggered by ASEAN’s economic integration, people follow their religious practices wherever they go, creating tensions between immigrants and their host communities. The third article “Religion vs. Society in Southeast Asia, Who is Winning?” by Pamela Hongsakul, considers five emerging patterns on spiritual evolution in Southeast Asia- commercialization of religion, an East-West spiritual fusion, evangelism, secularization, and the co-opting of religion for political ends. TrendNovation Southeast this month interviews Dr. Soraj Hongladarom, a lecturer at the Faculty of Arts, Chulalongkorn University. Dr Soraj is Director of the Center for Ethics of Science and Technology and an associate professor of philosophy at the Faculty of Arts, Chulalongkorn University. Dr Soraj shares his views on topics such as the future of Buddhism in Southeast Asia, and the interplay among Southeast Asia’s religions in the coming years. Finally, the Trend Tool section considers another forecasting technique: Casual Layer Analysis (CLA). CLA is an analytical tool conceived by Professor Sohail Inayatullah, a renowned political scientist and futurist at Tamkang University, Taiwan. It is used especially to investigate the causes of social phenomena and generate a set of forecasts as to their future trajectory. The results can guide the development of more effective, deeper, inclusive, and longer term policies. TrendNovation is available online at http://www.trendsoutheast.org. As always, your comments and feedback are invaluable to us.

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Overseas Chinese Shrines in Southeast Asia: Existence and Changes By Dr. Surasit Amornwanitsak, Lecturer at the Faculty of Liberal Arts, Thammasat University, Thailand

IDEA: Shrines pervade the world’s religions, and serve as a focal point for Chinese folk religion. The Overseas Chinese - the earliest foreign diaspora in Southeast Asia - took their religion with them, and most Overseas Chinese communities in the region still worship before a Chinese shrine. Today, though, the popularity of Chinese shrines is waning. Increasingly, only the elderly continue to follow tradition, suggesting a weakening of cultural cohesion within such communities in the future, especially within the younger generation.

Scenarios: Chinese religion is not a theological entity, but rather a cultural complex that combines Taoism, Buddhism, Confucianism, and popular beliefs, which have melded and evolved to create a unique set of symbols and ritual practices.[1] Chinese shrines are dedicated to a specific deity, ancestor, and saint and serve as a bridge to their roots and cultures. Chinese people

KEYWORDS: Sinophere; Overseas Chinese; cultural values; fashion; new generation

have always believed in gods, and that the spirits of the gods who reside within the shrine will bring happiness and prosperity to their lives, in return for homage. Southeast Asia can be seen as part of the “Sinosphere”, a concept of East Asia integration. Linguist James Matisoff coined the term to describe a grouping of countries and regions that are currently inhabited by a majority Chinese population or were historically under significant Chinese cultural influence.[2] It is a sphere of influence with a cultural representation of a Confucian and Chinese language. Countries in Southeast Asia that have an extensive Chinese cultural heritage include Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Chinese Filipinos are unique in the region in being overwhelmingly Christian, while Overseas Chinese in Thailand are mainly Buddhist. Religious intermixing between the cultures of Overseas Chinese and the beliefs of their host countries is evident from records of the prevalence of intercultural marriages and cultural flows in the Philippines and countries around the Malacca Strait during the first wave of migration from China in the 15-16th centuries. In the Philippines, Chinese mestizos are recognized as persons of mixed Chinese and either indigenous Malay or Spanish (or both) ancestry.[3]

Disclaimer : The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reﬂect the ofﬁcial positions of Noviscape Consulting Group or the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright © Trendsoutheast 2009 - 2011. All Rights Reserved.

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Peranakan and Baba-Nyonya (or Straits Chinese) are terms used to refer to descendants of late 15th and 16th-century Chinese immigrants to the Nusantara region as in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore during the Colonial era. They have partially retained their culture, but along the way, they also developed a new and unique local dialect.[4] Though mainly devout Catholics, many still subscribe to Chinese beliefs. The first contemporary religious trends among these groups were religious duality and conservatism. The second, contemporary wave of migration showed a shift in the minds of Overseas Chinese from a focus on Chinese historical identity (consciousness of traditional family values and symbols of a glorious Chinese past) towards cultural identity (a modern version of the traditional Chinese identity). Surprisingly, this modern cultural content is not Chinese or even Southeast Asian, but rather grounded in Western cultures.[5] The rise of capitalism and materialist values has led to erosion of traditional beliefs and value systems among Overseas Chinese. Many go as far as to suggest that contemporary influences threaten the very existence of Chinese shrines and their significance for the next generation of Chinese diaspora.

Implications: The lives of Overseas Chinese has always revolved around the shrine, with all events in the life-course of individuals and the fortunes of the clan celebrated and solemnified at the shrine. Homage is paid and blessings requested throughout life. But traditions have not stood still, and today innovations have been introduced, especially through the adoption of ICTs, in the hope of sustaining and re-animating the culture in the face of modern influence: •

A number of shrines have incorporated ‘cultural edutainment’ and put technology to work in service such as fortune-telling and

Kuan Im Shrine shows impressive carved wood and is one of the oldest, most important shrines in Bangkok. Source: http://www.nileguide.com/destination/blog/ bangkok/2011/02/08/more-photos-from-bangkoks-chinese-new-year-2011/

•

medium services to attract visitors. Other recent additions include Chinese opera for important occasions, traditional Hu (Chinese worship in form of paper) and worship using auspicious coins as talisman, and the appearance of shrine websites in multi-lingual versions. This helps the shrine adapt and integrate with the modern world and earn more income. This revitalization allows them to serve a younger generation and address a wider audience. Court administrators place importance on cultural beliefs by conducting additional research in order to ready to inform and diffuse knowledge to worshipers and others interested in Chinese religion. Creativity in aligning contemporary beauty trends with leading goddesses, because of the myth that female divinities could promote the myth of eternal beauty. Introduction of cyber-information and sophisticated marketing strategies to attract the younger generation to visit shrines, and expand the shrine’s social network across countries, as part of the current increasing popularity of “meditation tourism” or “transformational tourism” as a fashion trend.

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The roles and functions of today’s Chinese shrines might have changed from the past, but we can be sure that the shrine, in whatever form, will still exist as long as Chinese communities continue to believe in the power of the divine. However, though core values remain untouched, the forms of their expression and dissemination will be modernized, materialized, and diversified to serve the next generation.

Early indicators: •

•

• •

Mixed marriages between Overseas Chinese migrants and non-Buddhist local inhabitants of the host countries have produced a new generation.[6] More shrines have been constructed. According to Thailand’s Department of Provincial Administration, since 1998, there are more than 686 registered Chinese shrines across the country, with over 30 new sacrificed places. These data do not include the many unregistered Chinese shrines.[7] A rise of mediation tourism, particularly in mainland Southeast Asia.[8] Increasing use of social networks for religious purposes among the new generation and popular shrines.[9]

About The Writer: Dr. Surasit Amornwanitsak Dr. Surasit obtained a Doctor of Literature in Ancient Chinese Literature from Zhejiang University and a Master of Classical Chinese Literature degree from Nanjing University, China. With five Bachelor Degrees in religion, mass communication, political science, Thai studies, and education from leading universities in Thailand, he has actively conducted research in the areas of classical Chinese literature and Chinese mythology, and has also taught Chinese as a Foreign Language. He is currently a lecturer at the Faculty of Liberal Arts, Thammasat University, Thailand.

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Drivers & Inhibitors: Drivers: • •

Increased demand for local social work.[10] Introduction of “prophetic innovation”.[11]

Inhibitors: • • •

The rise of Chinese economic and social influence in Southeast Asia. Racial policies in some countries. Conservative mindset among public authorities.

References [1] Barrett, T. H. (2005), Chinese Religion in English Guise: The History of an Illusion, Modern Asian Studies, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp.. 509 – 533. [2] Fogel, J. A. (2009) Articulating the Sinosphere: Sino-Japanese Relations in Space and Time, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. [3] Wickberg, E. (1964) The Chinese Mestizo in Philippines History, The Journal Southeast Asian History, Vol.5, No. 1, March 1964, pp. 62-100. [4] Hardwick, P. A. (2008) “Neither Fish nor Fowl”: Constructing Peranakan Identity in Colonial and Post-Colonial Singapore, Folklore of East Asia, Folklore Forum, Vol. 38, No. 1, Indiana University; USA. [5] Cushman, J. W. and Gungwu, W. (1988) Changing Identities of the Southeast Asian Chinese Since World War II, Hong Kong University Press. [6] Ganug Nugroho Adi (2011) A Javanese-Chinese ‘Imlek’ for Solo, The Jakarta Post, February 2, 2011. [7] www.dopa.go.th [8] Rocharungsat, P. (2009) ASEAN Image Positioning: The Case Study of Mynmar, Thailand International Journal on Tourism, Thailand Research Fund (TRF); Bangkok. [9] http://www.lengnoeiyi.com [10] Walsh, J. (2010) Thai Khem Kaeng: An inadequate response by the Thai State to the impact of the 2008 economic crisis, Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 1-8. [11]Goh, D. P. S. (2009) Chinese Religion and the Challenge of Modernity in Malaysia and Singapore: Syncretism, Hybridisation and Transfiguration, Asian Journal of Social Science Vol. 37, pp. 107-137.

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Making ASEAN a New Hotpot, Not a New Hot Spot By Navaphol Viriyakunkit, An expert in organization strategy and conflict management

IDEA: As Southeast Asia moves towards closer co-operation under the three pillars of the ASEAN Community framework, one could not help but wonder where this might lead the region? If the goal of closer integration is realized, ASEAN’s diverse peoples would be living together in much closer cultural, geographic, economic and religious proximity – a ‘hotpot’ of 570 million people with diverse cultures, values, and beliefs. Are we heading into an era of peaceful multiculturalism, or towards major conflict? Is there a way to avoid cultural collision and promote peaceful living in the region?

KEYWORDS: ASEAN; labor mobilization; cultural conflict; religious differences; root causes; plural society

About The Writer: Mr. Navaphol Viriyakunkit Mr. Navaphol Viriyakunkit is an expert in organization strategy and conflict management. His experience includes assisting Thailand’s Department of Trade Negotiations deal with trade conflicts between Thailand and its trading partners and leading a consulting project to assist the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) devise the next National Development Plan which is scheduled to be implemented in 2012-2016. He received a bachelor degree from Chulalongkorn University, Thailand, (First-class Honors), and a Master degree in Applied Economics from New York University (Thai Government Scholarship). He is currently Director of Research and Consultancy at the Creative Entrepreneurship Development Institute (CEDI). He can be reached at jaynavaphol@gmail.com.

Scenarios: Southeast Asia is one of the most diverse cultural and religious areas in the world. Islam dominates the region (39%), with major populations of Buddhists (24%), Christians (20%) and others (17%). Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Singapore are predominantly Buddhist, whilst the majority of people in the Malay Peninsula and islands of Indonesia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei) are mostly Muslim. Indonesia itself is home to the world’s largest Muslim population. People in the Philippines and East Timor are largely Christian (Catholics). Other than the three major religions, Zen, Confucius, Hindu, and animist cults abound.

Exhibit: ASEAN Population by Religion, 2010 Source: CIA World Fact Book

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Economic integration → labor mobilization → religious interaction

such as Thailand or Malaysia. Thus the issue of how countries deal with illegal workers will sooner or later need to be addressed by ASEAN and other regional fora, as well as at national level.

Closer economic ties within the region have brought significant changes affecting the lives of people in the ten member countries of ASEAN. Liberalization and economic cooperation under the ASEAN Economic Community framework (AEC) will enhance flows of goods, services, investment and labor in the region as never before, and the pace will only accelerate as we approach 2015, a key milestone for the integration process.

This neglect of the social and cultural implications of labor migration is a prime example of how supranational and national bodies around the region have lost focus. Mishandling of the issue of religious and cultural co-existence could lead to long-term conflict and violence, whose consequences may easily last for generations. True, we can raise both positive and negative socio-economic consequences related to the migration of unskilled foreign labor, but the existing plans for an integrated AEC have neglected to accommodate at least two social components – a new mindset and the emerging plural society. The case of the long-running conflict in Thailand’s three southernmost provinces may shed some light on these dilemmas

Historically, trade and investment in the region have relied upon cheap labor to drive growth and competitiveness. Unskilled labor shortages among some leading economic powerhouses around the region drive massive domestic and regional migrations of manpower from less developed areas into both new industrial and trading zone. Increased cross-border movement of labor will thus be inevitable, even though, under the AEC framework, only skilled workers (both blue and white collar) are allowed to move freely from one country to another. Generally, labor movements between countries reflect differences in economic development and opportunities provided. We also notice that workers generally prefer to travel and work in another country of the same faith – this applies to both Buddhist and Muslim workers. So what are the implications of these movements?

Religions and labor movement: An unseen mobilization How do those countries deal with people coming from different background, culture and set of beliefs? Though the labor migration in the region is well documented, much less attention has been paid to their social and political implications. Malaysia, for instance, is home to approximately 300,000 foreign domestic workers – both legal and undocumented; of these only about half are registered. Though many criminal cases related to abuse, sexual assault and slave working conditions are reported in the media, little has been done to address their underlying causes. It is reported that more than 1,000 maids, mainly Indonesians, flee cruel or abusive employers every year. It is extremely difficult to prevent illegal labor crossing the borders for work, especially those countries sharing long land borders

Implications: Lessons from the south of Thailand: do not try to assimilate Thailand is Buddhist-dominated country with Muslims comprise only 5 percent of the total population, mostly living in the southern part of Thailand. Thailand’s ‘nationalism’ policy, dating back to the government of Paek Piboonsongkram in 1938, has played a key role in defining the country’s social and economic structure. The policy favored Buddhist Thais and was partly designed to assimilate Muslim people in the South to be ‘Thai’ people within a narrow definition – that true Thais are Buddhist Thais. Muslims in Thailand therefore have been forced to live within this Buddhist-centric social and economic construct. They must also adjust themselves in terms of education, language, dress code and other cultural activities. Inevitably, tensions are bound to emerge as a result of such inequitable treatment. Such circumstances offer a ready recruiting ground for extremists, who have successfully radicalized some segments of the population in these provinces. The ongoing conflict has claimed more than 4,100 lives and some 6,500 injuries during the six years running from January 2004 to January 2010 when the violence actually escalated.

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As such, one alternative approach that could break the cycle of violence might be for the government to abandon its old-fashioned and discredited ‘assimilation’ creed – as other countries have already done. Muslim schools, dual official languages and accommodation of diverse religious practices should be recognized and endorsed, in order to send one key message: that Thailand embraces all cultures and religions, and Muslim Thais are no less Thai than Buddhists.

Difference in religion is not a cause of conflict New mindset The answer to the question of whether religious differences are the underlying cause of the ongoing conflict in Thailand is really quite obvious: no. Rather the problem has arisen from the insensitivity of policymakers in dealing with these differences. In so many areas in Southeast Asia, people of different religions co-exist in harmony. A recent interview with villagers in a rural part of the southern province of Narathiwat – the scene of innumerable terrorist atrocities - revealed that Muslims and Buddhists, a minority in the province, had lived peacefully together long before the violence started to erupt in 2004 when official guns and weaponry were stolen from a government’s weapon storage in the area. During the interview, they even explicitly expressed their affection and sympathy towards each other. They were friends in the same school. They lived in the same village. They went to the same local markets and restaurants, and so on. So even though the social and power structure favors Buddhist Thais; there is a significant amount of social capital within society that united the people at a personal level. Unfortunately this social capital has been gradually and systematically dismantled by dissidents and extremists, aided by corrupt government officials and the military, effectively lowering trust among the people in the region. Therefore, it is not differences in religion per se but the way governments perceive and manage religious and cultural difference that can sow the seeds of conflict. The assimilation policy is not working anymore and perhaps it never did. The Thai government must acknowledge this and attempt a major policy reform, sooner rather than later. But what alternatives exist? What is the best way to deal with social and cultural differences in today’s fast-changing environment when assimilation as a policy has been abandoned by modern democracies around the world?

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Preventing culture clash by promoting a plural society Fostering greater understanding and empathy among people of different socio-cultural backgrounds will help erase prejudice born of fear, improve mutual respect and increase the level of interaction among discrete groups. Therefore it is all-important for ASEAN’s peoples to learn more about others who come from a different culture and share different values and beliefs. Future ASEAN citizens must prepare themselves for a society with a richer cultural mix. Better understanding, greater acceptance and higher adoption of diverse beliefs and cultures are crucial to harmonious living in ASEAN. The social component of the ASEAN integration is vital and cannot legitimately be considered in any way secondary to the economic aspect. Differences should be viewed with appreciation and treasured with open-mindedness and true understanding to create a strong foundation for Southeast Asia to prosper. ASEAN governments should cooperate more actively to foster understanding among their peoples, while creating a harmonious cultural ‘hotpot’, rather than conflicting ‘hot spots.’

Early indicators: • •

Some Southeast Asian public authorities inhibit attempts by local feminist organizations to engage international human rights activities.[1] More engagement among foreign workers in processes of community formation, networking and moral obligation.[2]

Drivers & Inhibitors: Drivers: • • •

Globalization of labor migration into Southeast Asia. Aging populations in Singapore and Thailand. ASEAN Economic Community in 2015.

Inhibitors: • • •

The rise of Chinese economic and social influence in Southeast Asia. Racial policies in some countries. Conservative mindset among public authorities.

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Religion vs. Society in Southeast Asia: Who is Winning? KEYWORDS: Commercialization; east-west fusion; evangelism; secularization; politicization

IDEA: The rapid globalization of the last two decades has held Southeast Asia in the grip of cross-cultural evolution – and this has affected not only its secular but also its religious structure. The overall pattern, on five levels, individual to societal – points to an invisible war between the higher and lower levels of consciousness, between religion and society.

Scenarios: Five emerging patterns on spiritual evolution in Southeast Asia can be observed from (1) a commercialization in personal level, (2) an East-West fusion in group level, (3)an evangelism in group level, (4) a secularization in sector level, and (5) politicization in societal level.

Personal level: Commercialization References [1] Lyons, L. T. (2004) Organizing for Domestic Worker Rights in Singapore: The Limits of Transnationalism, Research Online, University of Wollongkong, Australia. [2] Johnson, M., Liebelt, C., McKay, D., Pingol A., and Werbner, P. (2009) Sacred Journeys, Diasporic Lives: Sociality and the Religious Imagination among Filipinos in the Middle East, University of Surrey, the UK.

By Pamela Hongsakul, Leadership & media advisor, and publisher of LAW Magazine

About The Writer: Pamela Hongsakul Pamela Hongsakul is a Bangkok based leadership & media advisor, and publisher of LAW Magazine. She has served as an executive coach to corporate executives, religious leaders, university deans, and new generation politicians, several of whom became ministers. http://hongsakul.com

Modern media have raised everyone’s expectations, and many religious followers now anticipate entertainment everywhere. Yielding to these forces, charismatic sects, churches and temples have converted to pop-style music for services, and scheduled more social activities for member families. New Age groups have tried to counterbalance this by focusing on a deeper inner life, exhorting followers to disregard ‘outer branding’ and work towards true emotional rewards. But their successful use of mass media has made it difficult to distinguish between sincere spiritual initiates and faddish followers. However, as they mature, the metaphysical may yet take root.

Culturallevel:East-Westfusion Cultural mixing has greatly increased the number of westerners flying to Southeast Asia for training and ordination in Buddhism, and meditation centers are flourishing. Conversions from Buddhism to Christianity and vice versa have multiplied, but seem dependent on personal relations. By contrast, both Muslims and Hindus, with their more closed social cultures, have experienced less flux. Zen and New Age groups have recruited mostly from the margins of these ma-

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jor religions. Thus population percentages of traditional faiths have held steady in each country. Non-indigenous religious groups have become more ensconced in the region – Hindu temples and statues of Hindu deities have long been common in places of worship across Southeast Asia. In recent years, many have turned to Ganesh: pictures, statues and amulets have multiplied in or around Buddhist temples. The Chinese goddess, Kuan Yin, gained enhanced popularity in the 1990’s, and the Japanese Shinnyo-en Buddhists have connected with many thousands in Southeast Asia since 2000. When joining such new groups, the motivation seems to be social as well as spiritual, with an expectation that enrolment will tangibly improve their lives. .

Group level: Evangelism Since Southeast Asia imitates developed nations with a lag period of about 20 years, the latest cycle of evangelism has just now hit the region. There is little cross-religion integration. A ‘results-driven’ business mentality has shifted the focus of many religious leaders from spirituality to recruitment. And intensified radicalism (exemplified by evangelical Christians and extremist Muslims) shows a reactionary stance against the perceived erosion of the purity of their culture. Oftentimes, outsiders have intervened, as in the case of the Malay model sentenced to be punished severely for drinking beer.

Sector level: secularization Religion has always played a role even in secular societies. But in times of crisis, the profusion of religious symbols suggests an atmosphere of increased hopelessness. Considerably more taxis now display amulets and pictures of Buddha for protection in Thailand, and many leaders have filled their offices with statues of deities. Some resorts even advertise a religious theme in order to gain from spiritual tourism; tour groups to Laos are fed a steady diet of mysticism concerning Luang Prabang.

Societal level: politicization But perhaps the most newsworthy trend is the politicization of religion. The most vivid examples of this are provided by the march of the Burmese monks in 2007, and the participation of monks in the more recent political protests in Thailand, which stretched the bounds of community engagement. And the battle over Cambodia’s Preah Vihear Temple has sparked political frenzy. Given the emergence of powerful religious sects, societal groups may co-opt their support

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for secular goals for a while, before a more spiritual focus can resurface.

Implications: Spiritual War The psychic energy in Southeast Asia has become more masculine (vs. the passive feminine) since the integration of Western-style action orientation. In the race for power in society, form has temporarily won over function; and dogma over experience. Throughout modern parts of Southeast Asia, we see examples of religion used as a tool for profit, rather than as a doorway to enlightenment. Blood curses on enemies, and feng shui adjustments at political and government buildings, illustrate this. The Cambodian ambassador to Thailand recounted how a Thai thief returned stolen Cambodian Buddhist statues to him because he associated a run of bad luck in his family to the dates these objects were in his possession. Mentalism (often dismissed as superstition by Westerners) remains a strong force in Southeast Asia. But everything occurs in cycles, and the swing back can take many forms. Though Western-style materialism is well engrained in the region, over the past few years Western influence in Southeast Asia is giving way to a new ‘ASEAN pride’. Now more protective of their disappearing culture, Southeast Asians are increasingly demanding that imported systems match local traditions. The war between short term satisfaction and future focused spirituality has begun since the economic crisis of 1997. The focus on entertainment, material gain, numbers, power, and position has a new enemy in the happiness index. In the medium term future, the zeitgeist of Southeast Asia may shift back towards spiritual enlightenment.

Public Policy To many observers, recent instances of intensified political disturbances, religious scandals, natural disasters, and health crises are but a manifestation of collective karma. The sins of society seem to have accumulated into a pool of poison: widespread gambling, prostitution, illicit drugs, corruption, and the ignoring of those in need. The symptoms of social malaise are in plain sight, but - and especially during a time of revival of organized religion -the solutions seem surprisingly unreachable. Various religious sects teach that problems are lessons for individuals. However, too many such lessons in one place may be unsustainable for a society. This may be the time for public policy to step in, not in a radical way as

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in the Spanish Inquisition, but as containment. The freedom of the actors may have to take a back seat to the needs of the victims, in order to heal spiritual starvation, and so that spiritual goals can make a return to their former usefulness in the political and socioeconomic spheres.

Early indicators: In analyzing religious trends, it is notable that evolution at all social levels, individual to societal, has been motivated by self-serving goals. But the downward spiral of the world order is reaching a tipping point, after which the entire physical/ sociopolitical/spiritual structure will correct itself: a catharsis will take place. The presencing of the holistic body will be aided by the new technologies of mass media, and this selfcorrection will filter through all levels of society.

Effects of mass media on spiritual trends A new religious landscape will emerge as a direct result of the internet revolution. Internet will allow the ‘truth within’ to strike a chord with a wider audience, leading to democratization of religious views. Media will bring in the common voice, and help to raise the status of women in religion, as well as find common ground within all faiths. Stereotypes and radical elements of religions will be brought to light and gradual mainstreaming of sects and cults will result in more moderate beliefs. Modern religions will go the way of pop-psychology and self-help groups, bringing basic spiritual truths to the masses, and to the common people who don’t attend temples and churches regularly. Communications will be more basic, because of increased exposure to the light of analysis by non-believers. Thus religious people will have to re-evaluate their convictions, resulting in more justified tenets, and more flexible dogma that must be applicable to everyday life. This will create a more fluid and responsive belief system.

Effects of spiritual trends on power structures Within power struggles in Southeast Asia of the past few years, much has been made of the rule of law, but not much has been said about the spirit of the law. Political parties wave about various laws and interpret them according to the whims of the current office holders. Riots and demonstrations have prevailed over structured discussions in official organi-

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zations. And traditional media outlets take sides according to personal affiliations rather than objectively covering all sides of the issues. But like the human body, which only hears its rhythms when it is ill – the social order will recognize the roar of its tsunami when the system fails. The Thai demonstrations were referred to as the ‘Mobile Phone Revolution’ and media have now dubbed the recent Egyptian demonstrations as the ‘Twitter Revolution’. But in future, these same media will have created a population that is no longer manipulated by puppet masters of technologies. Future leaders will need to deal with a new society that is only reachable from the inside, on a spiritual level, rather than mental. And their beliefs will be more fluid, not fixed on dogma from familial upbringing. In the newly spiritualized world, everyone knows how to use the media, so it will speed up the inevitable, taking a few less side roads to corruption. As Gandhi said, “The truth will always come out, always”. New media will make the inevitable truth a key factor in decision making. Future power structures will be more fluid – they will use the internet for consensus, they will throw their ideas out to the public more often, and let the people react through social networks, and these virtual town halls will yield real time results. However, whereas in the past, elections were precursors of populist policies for short term gain, future decisions will weigh in on deeper issues. Rule by numbers will evolve to rule by social choice.

Religion VS Society With the prevalence of new media, future believers will recognize that major religions share many fundamental tenets: compassion, sacrifice, honesty, “Let go and let God”. We will see a convergence of religions and religious leaders, rather than a polarity of extremists. Public reasoning will take place not only in social, but also in religious arenas. And as the thought structures of all sectors are rebuilt, we will see a new fluidity. But as the new world order achieves success, it will also try to make the new order permanent, thus lending itself to concrete groupings and new battles. This cycle will repeat itself throughout time like a spiral. When Voltaire wrote in Candide, “All things happen for good in the best of all possible worlds”, many critics thought he was satirizing this optimist philosophy. However, it is possible that on a deeper level, Voltaire recognized the spiral of the infinite waxing and waning of form, and the contribution of all events to the overall makeup of human existence. The interplay between religion and society follows this yin-

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yang history. Therefore, whereas it may seem that society today has more power than religion, we are approaching the tipping point when that trend will reverse, and religion will take over. The key will be to hold both in balance. The danger of either society or religion having too much sway over people expresses itself in extreme forms, such as uncontained sins, or over enforcement of faith-based rules and regulations. At the receiving end of punishments for infractions will always be the weak and poor, and thus a constant state of war. New Age faiths which follow the path of ancient religions such as Taoism and Zen, appreciate the totality of existence, and this is the spirituality that is coming into Southeast Asia in the medium to long term future. When we look, one day, it will just Be. In the meantime, we must take great care to not get in the way. Less form, more substance would allow this interchange, this balance, to happen. And in the long term, the higher level of consciousness will finally win over the lower level structured world. That will finally be the beginning of sustainable peace. • • • •

Changes in religion and social interaction resulted from increasing numbers of new media uses. Flows on old and new religions and belief systems within Southeast Asia. Increasing on Asian evangelism. Tangible presence on religious plurality in an individual and group.

Drivers & Inhibitors: Drivers: • • • • •

ISSUE 6 - RELIGION AND SUPERSTITIONS

INTERVIEW with Dr. Soraj Hongladarom By Dr Pun-Arj Chairatana,

Managing Director – Noviscape Consulting Group

Q: What is your view on the future of Buddhism in Southeast Asia? I think we should highlight two parallel influencing “We are returning to decentralization of the administration of Buddhism. In Thailand the Sangha establishment (Buddhism Council), which from the outside appears quite strong, is in fact riven with factions. We can expect its influence and authority to decline over the next decade. “There are already some situations that signal this. For example, we see a movement of the nuns or Bhikkhuni. If you go to the west, in Europe in Christian community, the nuns are considered as female monks. But here in Thailand, nuns have lower status compared with monks. The Sangha establishment has been silent so far, and has not accepted the Bhikkhunis as officially belonging to Dheravada Buddhism.

Increasing of new media in religion and spiritual sectors. More people with social networking access in Southeast Asia. Religions and secular groups adopt and implement more media technologies. Variety of belief systems are available for people to practice. Increasing engagement of religion in national politics.

Inhibitors: • • • • •

Intensified control by state authorities. Societal control by religious leaders. Conflicts within seculars. Miscommunication between believers and nonbelievers. Co-opting of evangelistic activities by secular groups.

RELIGION AND SUPERSTITIONS - ISSUE 6

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“Nonetheless, there are those in Thailand who hold nuns in high esteem and greatly value the presence of nuns in their communities, whatever the highranking monks in Bangkok have to say. At the temple of Bhikkhuni Dhammanunta, in a major temple for Bhikkhunis in Nakhon Pathom, nuns follow the traditional teaching of Dheravada Buddhism. They have overcome their initial concern over non-recognition by the Sangha and have carried on their duties as nuns. She and her fellow nuns in the temple are often invited to peoples’ homes to officiate, chant and eat, just as monks do elsewhere.”

Q: Do other groups practice or interpret their beliefs in their own way? “We are seeing the rise of new Buddhist sects, mostly imported from other cultures. These include Tibetan, Chinese, Japanese, and Zen Buddhism. These forms of Buddhism have been adopted into Thailand, and their followers are extremely devout. We can see this from the huge reception given to Thich Nhat Hanh, the Vietnamese monk in the Zen tradition, so I see this as another emerging trend.”

Q: Is religion just for the rich? “Religion has no fences. At grass roots level, people neither know nor care about the Sangha establishment; they often have no idea of the hierarchy leading up to the Supreme Patriarch. But still they worship devoutly, following the monks from their local temples. We have ‘grass root monks’, who relate to the people because monks have always depended on the people, they have to go out for alms every morning. There are differences in the content of the teaching of monks such as Thich Nhat Hanh and others, whose followers are mostly middle and upper class, and so-called grass-roots monks. Typically, we find that monks who cater to grass roots people tend to rely more on rituals and charms. We might even say that they appear less rational than the style of Buddhism preferred by the educated middle classes. Nevertheless, if we look more closely at the middle classes, we cannot say that they are absolutely more rational. They also believe in magical abilities and superstitions, only in different forms. For example, the Wat Dhammakaya movement is popular among the middle classes in Thailand. For them a central tenet is the belief that the abbot is some kind of manifesta-

About Dr. Soraj Hongladarom Dr. Hongladarom is Director of the Center for Ethics of Science and Technology and an associate professor of philosophy at Faculty of Arts, Chulalongkorn University. His research interests include epistemology, philosophy of language, logic, as well as problems arising from the relationship between philosophy and literature. His major concern at the moment is on the problems arising from the interplay between modern science and Thai culture.

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tion of the Buddha himself. As such they believe in magical ability. “The rise of ‘Celebrity monks’ is part of this trend, which will probably continue in the future because of our fascination with personality cults. Cambodian and Lao Buddhists are likely to follow trends set in Thailand, especially as these three countries share the same religious cultures. So there is a good chance that whatever happens in Thailand, will be repeated in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, but perhaps less in Vietnam, which has a quite different culture.

Q: What are the prospects in regard to future relationships and interactions between Buddhists and Muslims in Southeast Asia? This is a serious issue; we need more dialogue and more mutual understanding but sadly I am pessimistic at the prospects. I think the situation will remain much as it is now, with Buddhists and Muslims keeping to them with only a superficial level of interaction. The relatively high level of social integration of Muslims in Bangkok has come with economic opportunity, but in the deep-south, things are very different, and religious strictures loom large in peoples’ lives. In the past Muslims and Buddhists co-existed harmoniously, until somehow politics intervened and something happened that broke the trust between the two cultures. It is my hope that globalization and economic opportunity will increase tolerance among religious cultures over the coming decade.

Q: What do you think about the business of religion? The business of religion is flourishing. The amulet business is lucrative here in Thailand, and there are many wealthy temples due to the generosity of Thai people. Also, sects such as Wat Dhammakaya have been highly successful in raising funds through shrewd marketing and recruitment. Luang Por Pramote and Santi Asoke are also good examples, aimed at different target groups. We can say that we are approaching a trend of ‘spiritual fashion’ which will be characterized by the emergence of new sects, many of which will be led by foreign monks.

ISSUE 6 - RELIGION AND SUPERSTITIONS

TREND TOOLS Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) By Dr Pun-Arj Chairatana,

Managing Director – Noviscape Consulting Group

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is an analytical tool used as a means to investigate the causes of social phenomena and generate a set of forecasts as to their future trajectory. The results are used to assist in developing more effective, deeper, inclusive, and longer term policies. Originally conceived by Professor Sohail Inayatullah , a political scientist and futurist at Tamkang University, Taiwan, CLA can be viewed as a method to create alternative futures with detailed transformational spaces based on understanding the outer and inner layers of collective views and concerns about the future. In common with the Delphi technique, this sophisticated analytical tool combines empirical research with future methodologies to reProfessor Sohail Inayatullah is a political scientist and futurist. A prolific academic scholar, author and speaker, He is a professor at Tamkang University, Taiwan and adjunct professor at the University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia.

fine multi-layers of thoughts for effective projection of future scenarios. CLA has grown from its original role as a key tool for future studies, and since the early 2000s has been widely adopted as policy tool by both private and public sectors, in fields ranging from ageing to university reform. In Southeast Asia, it has evolved through repeated exercises in some countries, particularly in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. CLA has been used in Malaysia for analyze the future of higher education, in Thailand for city foresight, and in APEC member countries for scenario building in relation to emerging infectious diseases. The method requires meeting sessions of representative groups selected from multiple cultures. CLA is

RELIGION AND SUPERSTITIONS - ISSUE 6

structured with four layers of analysis and five key activities. • First layer - Litany: This is the most visible and obvious layer, representing the ‘official’ accepted view of reality. It requires relatively simple analytic capability and uses clear and tangible assumptions. A key activity is to identify change through observing current elements such as: events, qualitative trends, diagnosed problems, media spin, opinions, and policy, e.g. increases in crime rates, climbing divorce rates, or ageing populations. • Second layer - Social causes: This layer focuses on social causation and the systemic perspective. The key activity is the interpretation of quantitative data from economic, cultural, political, and historical factors. This non-academic analysis is obtained from published policy briefs, and other publications such as editorials in newspapers and popular journals. The key activity at this second level is to explain and challenge data of the litany, and also to systematically analyze shortterm historical data (measured in years). Examples include trends in crime rates, adoption of digital technologies, marriage, improvement in health care and change in demographic structure. • Third layer - Discourse/worldview: This layer focuses on the unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue, and the structure and the discourse/worldview that supports and legitimizes it. The key activity is to find deeper social, linguistic, and cultural constructs that are independent, invariant or actor-invariant. These might include values, paradigms/mental models, or how language frames or constrains the issue. The analysis is used to derive discrete alternative scenarios that provide a horizontal dimension to our layered analysis. For example, monogamy, self-sufficiency, double standards, seniority. • Fourth layer - Myths and Metaphors: The layer is concerned with deep stories and collective archetypes, and provides a ‘gut feeling’ emotional level experience and visual images to the worldview. It takes participants to the civilizational level of identity. The key activity here is to envision images of authentic preferred futures, or ‘visions’, for example, security vs. fear of commitment, rejuvenation, vicious cycles, grow or die (for business). The last key activity is to plan and create change. This final phase identifies stakeholders, resources;

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Source: S. Inayatullah (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_layered_analysis)

clarifies goals; designs strategies; and organizes action to create change. CLA is an approach to create constructs of problems through their context. The method perceives the context at multiple levels, and can be considered in essence as a search for methodological integration, seeking to bring together differing research traditions, allowing authentic alternative scenarios and preferred futures to emerge.

References Inayatullah, S. (2007) Futures Studies in Asia: Players and Institutions, paper presented at the 3rd Global Knowledge Conference, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; 12 December 2007. Inayatullah, S. (1993) From Who am I to When am I?: Framing the Time and Shape of the Future, Futures, 25(3): 235-253. http://www.metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm

Dr. Surasit Amornwanitsak Mr. Navaphol Viriyakunkit Mr. Samernai Pengchan Ms. Pamela Hongsakul Dr. Soraj Hongladarom Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana Writers / Information Specialist Nartrapee Wongseangchundr Project co-ordinator William Wyn Ellis Chief Editor Pinchathana Atthiwatthana Graphic Designer Regional Horizon / Environment Scanning (HS/ES) and trend monitoring for issues relevant to people, life, and regional transformation across the Southeast Asian region.

Trendnovation Southeast Newsletter is published by

Noviscape Consulting Group (NCG) www.noviscape.com