CommitteeonConstitutionalAffairsI(AFCOI

BalkInorBalkOut? WithseveralBalkancountriesbeingcandidatesandpotentialcandidatesforEU membershipandbenefitingfrompre-accessionfunding,severalaccessioncriteriastillneedtobe fulfilled,leavingnegotiationsstagnating.How,ifatall,shouldtheEUensureasmoothaccession processofBalkancountries,alsoinlightofthepotentialsetbacksthatsuchenlargementcouldbring totheEUʼsstabilityasawhole?

byEnricoZonta(IT)

1. Backgroundandrelevance

“WewanttheWesternBalkansintheEuropeanUnion,therecannotbeanydoubtthatourgoalis enlargement. ” UrsulaVonderLeyen-6thOctober2021,Brdo,Slovenia.

These are the words that the President of the European Commission Von der Leyen used on the 6th October,2021intheEU-WesternBalkanssummitinBrdo,Slovenia,conveyingaclearmessageonthe EUʼs joint will to welcome the Balkan enlargement. However, the political turmoil over the topic among the EU leaders and the stagnating progress in the Balkan region might present a more complexandintricateperspective.

In order for a country to join theEuropeanUnion,ithastofulfilltheaccessioncriteria,alsoknownas Copenhagen criteria,consistingofpoliticalcriteria,suchasdemocracyandtheruleoflaw1 ,economic criteria, such as a functioning market economy, and administrative criteria, such as the capacity to effectively implement the acquis2 . Aer having filed an application for the EU membership and being considered ready by the European Council, a country is granted a candidate status, meaning that accession negotiations between the country and the EU are opened. Since 2003 the Western Balkans are granted a favoured route for accession to the EU, due to theirstrategicimportancefortheUnion in termsoftrade,migration,stability,andgeopoliticaldominanceoftheregion.Theprocessisreferred to as Stabilisation and Association Process (SPA) and involves favourable contractual and trade relationships, financial assistance, and political dialogue for the stability of the region. Currently, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo have been granted a Potential Candidate Status under the Stabilisation and Association Process, while Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia have been granted Candidate Country status and their accession talks with the EUhavestarted.However,

1 The rule of law is the legal concept by which everyone in thecountryfallsunderthelawandhastorespectit, boththecitizensandthegovernment. 2 TheAcquiscommunitaireisthebodyofcommonrightsanddutiespertainingtoEUMemberStates,comprising allofitssourcesoflaw.

progress has been stagnating. While Albania and North Macedonia have opened accession talks in July 2021, negotiations with Serbia and Montenegro havestarted,respectively,in2014and2012,with only two andthreenegotiationchaptersalreadyclosed,outofmorethan30intotal,someofwhich haveyettobeopened.

The main issues that revolve around the Western Balkans are the respectfortheruleoflaw,judicial independence, the fight against corruption, freedom of expression,managementofmigrationflows, and a competitive market economy. Such issues, especially the respect for fundamental EU values enshrined in art. 2 Treaty on the European Union (TEU), are a cause of great concern among the EU leaders, such as the President of France Macron, who advocates for an EU-wide reform before proceedingwithfurtherenlargement.

ImageSource:MapofEuropeaccordingtotheaccessionyear

In fact, opponents of enlargement advocate that the EU is still coping with theissuesbroughtabout by the 2004-2007 enlargement, which created further economic and social divisions,whiledifferent Member States raise concerns on the capacity of new countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia tointegratetheacquis.Giventhewell-establishedissueswiththeruleoflawinMemberStates such as Poland and Hungary,themainargumentofopponentsoftheBalkanenlargementis:iftheEU

does not find a way to solve its internal problems, how can it even support external countries willingtojointheUnion?

2. Keystakeholders

PleaseconsulttheStakeholdersMapatthislink

The European Commission, beingtheexecutivebranchoftheEuropeanUnionandcomposedofone Commissioner per country, is responsible for recommending to the European Council the steps to take concerning an application to join the EU and to negotiate with the country. Once it is given a negotiating mandate by the Council, it can set benchmarks for candidate countries and formally negotiate the terms with them. Specifically, the Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and enlargementnegotiations(DGNEAR)isthebranchoftheEuropeanCommissionassistingcandidates and potential candidates in meeting the requirements for accession. It develops and implements the stabilisationandassociationpolicyfortheWesternBalkans.

The European Council, composed of the 27 Heads of States and being responsible for setting the priorities of the EU agenda, is granted by art. 49 Treaty on the European Union (TEU), the power to make decisions on the accession steps totake,whichneedtobeagreedonunanimously.Unanimous voting implies that every Member State has veto power on the accession of other countries, in the specifics of the Western Balkans. The Balkan countries within the scope of the EU enlargement process are Albania,BosniaandHerzegovina,Kosovo,NorthMacedonia,Montenegro,andSerbia;they all filed an application for EU membership and have been granted candidate orpotentialcandidate status. The current negotiations with the Commission require their national governments to implementthemeasuresneededtoreachthebenchmarksestablishedandclosethenegotiations.

Additionally, National Parliaments play a role in the accession: in fact, when a country joins the EU, they sign an accession treatywithallMemberStates.Beingsuchaninternationaltreaty,eachNational Parliament of each Member State will have to, according to their own constitutional requirements, ratify the agreement before it enters into force. Should a national parliament not support the accession of a country, despite their governmentsupportingitintheEuropeanCouncil,theycanhalt themfromenteringtheEU.

3. Challengesandmeasuresinplace

Furtherenlargementvs.riskoffurtherinstability

Article 1oftheTreatyontheEuropeanUnionstatesthattheTreatymarksanewstageintheprocessof creating an ever closer union among the peoplesofEurope.Anever-closerEuropeisoenwhatthe advocates for a stronger role of the EU or for a further enlargement call for. Though in the recent twenty years Europe hasindeedcomecloserbothintermsofgovernance,thankstothe2009Treatyof Lisbon, and in terms of different peoples, thanks to the 2004-2007 enlargement, significantly major issues have risen. Currently, the EU suffers from a wide economic, democratic and political divide between the Western and the Eastern countries, likely linked to the fact that the latter have joined the Union only in 2004, 2007, and 2013. In fact, new countries joining the internal single market and the monetary Union led to phenomena such as relocation of companies in Eastern Europe, where they enjoy a lower labour cost. The democratic divide lies in theissueswithcorruptionandtherule of law in countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, and Hungary. The EUʼs decision-making has also been hampered by the enlargement: in fact, certain decisions in the European Council, such as those concerning possible consequences on the breach of fundamental values, are taken unanimously, therefore all Member States hold veto power, regardless of the population size. Therefore, a further enlargement to other post-communist Eastern-European countries, some of which suffer from similar rule of law issues,scaresWesternEuropeancountriesthatcallforawideEU internal reform to improve its functioning and procedures beforewelcomingothercountries.Hence, as long as some Member States oppose enlargement, Balkan accession will be realistically impossibletoachieve.

StruggleoftheWesternBalkanstofulfilthecriteria

As of February 2020, the EU has adopted anewapproachtoWesternBalkanenlargementthatgoes beyond the aforementioned Stabilisation and Association Process. Such approach entails a stronger focus on fundamental reforms, an increase in high-level political dialogue, a reorganisationofthe accession talks according to thematic clusters and a clearer and merit-based evaluation. In fact, as the acquis is in continuous evolution, the goal to reach by accessing countries seems to be always moving: with the new approach, the EU will establish specific benchmarks for every negotiation chapter that need to be achieved, both for the opening and the closing of the chapter. Additionally, the Commission established thatthechaptersontheruleoflawanddemocracywillbethefirsttobe

opened and the last ones to be closed: progress in such areas will determine the overall advancementofthetalks.

On October 19th, 2021, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and the Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement presented the impact assessment on the progress of the Western Balkans.Ononehand,theresultspresentsignificantprogressincertainareas,suchastheopeningof the chapters of competitiveness and green agenda for Serbia and the first municipal election in 12 years held in the city of Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina. On the other hand, the Commission states that the progress of the talks has been proportional to the progress of reforms in the rule of law area of the candidates, thus still stagnating. It is worth mentioning that Serbia still struggles with judicial independence, fight against corruption, and media freedom, while Montenegro has issues with media freedom and fight against corruption, and Bosnia and Herzegovinaʼs divisive political environmentkeepspushingbackfundamentalreformsinthefieldsofjusticeandadministration.

Not only does the EU provide intergovernmental dialogue and guidelines for reforms to the Western Balkans, but it also provides concrete financial support. The Instrument for Pre-Accession III (IPA III), successor of the precedent IPA II, provides an overall€14.2billionofinvestmentstotheWestern Balkans andTurkeyforthe2021-2027periodtosupportfundamentalreforms,economicgrowth,and competitiveness. While its contribution to the progress in candidate countries is evident, issues concerning the control over the usage of funds and the lack of visibility that the EU support has in the countries have risen. As a result, forIPAIII,theEUhasadoptedastrategythatwillconnectstrictly the fulfilment of theaccessionbenchmarks,specificeconomicgoalsandtheimplementationofthe acquis to the funding provided through IPA III;theeffortsandprogressofthebenefitingcountrieswill besubjecttoarecurringevaluationofperformance.TheEUhasalsosupportedWesternBalkanswith a specific COVID-19 package, including financial support and vaccine provisions, as well as with setting up the Western Balkans Investment Framework, a platform of civil society for the socio-economicdevelopmentofthearea.

PoliticaltensionsintheWesternBalkans

With the effects of the 1990s Balkan War still visible in the region,severalissuesbetweentheWestern Balkan countries themselves, andbetweenthemandtheEUarestillunresolved.Firstamongall,there is the Kosovo-Serbia long-standing issue: the stabilisationofthecountriesʼrelationshipisoneofthe fundamental tenets in the accession talks, with the EU acting as mediator among the two. Serbia is also a protagonist of political tensions with Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the long aermath of the Srebrenica massacre, that Serbia still has to recognise, despite therulingoftheInternationalCourtof Justice. North Macedonia has recently solved a harsh diplomatic fightwithGreeceoverthenameof the country, changing its name from ʻMacedoniaʼ to ʻNorth Macedoniaʼ , due the Greek region named Macedonia. Such progress led to Greece liing the vetointheCouncilforaccessiontalkswithNorth Macedonia. The latter country has also unresolved issues with Bulgaria for several cultural and political disputes. These tensions that are present not only at a political level but also on asocietal

basis, hamper progress in the accession talks, due to the inconsistent international relations of the countries.

Another element contributing to geopolitical instability is the economic investmentsofChinainthe region: the country has increasingly augmented its investment in connectivity, trade, and foreign direct investment3 on companies, becoming one of the most fundamental partners of the Western Balkans. Though Chinaʼs goals seem to be more related to the economic sphere, while the EUʼs interest pertains more to the political and societal sphere, making the two ambitions possibly coexistent and beneficial, the attractiveness of the two different domains is call of a wide political debate,bothintheBalkansandintheEU.

4. Furtherquestions

● Could the European Union at its current state resist a further enlargement without serious repercussionsonitsstability? ● How would you change the EUʼs approach towards theaccessiondialoguewiththeWestern

Balkans?Howcanitbeimproved? ● WhatfurthermethodsshouldtheEUimplementfor acceleratingthenegotiations? ● How can the Western Balkans collaborate in order to accelerate countriesʼ accession negotiationswiththeEU?

5. Oneforall,allforone

The programme Interreg Italy-Albania-Montenegro is an instance of local initiative funded through the Instrument for Pre-Accession II, aimed at furthering cooperation between Member States and Candidate countries. Such local initiatives are paramount in fostering not only institutional cooperation, but also social exchangeandinteractionamongpeoplesofEUcountriesandaccessing countries, contributing to the sentiment of an ever-closer union of the peoples of Europe. The programme ran from 2014 to 2020 and was renewed for 2021-2027; it entails development of a cross-border market for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), cooperation on cultural programmes andcreativity,aswellascommonstrategiesforwaterlandscaping,giventhegeographicalproximityof the countriesʼ coasts. Some positive results are the knowledge sharing among private enterprises concerning storage of data, the promotion of high-quality production techniquesoffoodandtraining fortheyouth.

3 Foreign Direct Investment is the purchase of an interest of a private company by a foreign company or investor.

6. Materialforfurtherresearch

EssentialEngagement

- ReadthisfactsheetbytheEUonthecurrentstateofrelationswithWesternBalkans - ReadthisarticlebyEuronewsconcerningthepoliticaldivisionoverenlargement - ReadthisOpEdbytheClingdaleInstituteontheEUinfluenceovertheWesternBalkans - WatchthisvideobyDWNewsontheBrnoSummit

AdditionalEngagement

- ReadthisarticlebyHeinrich-BöllSiungonthe2004-2007EUenlargement - ReadthisarticlebyEuronewsonfurthercooperationbetweenWesternBalkans - ReadthispaperontheeffectivenessofEUinterventionintheWesternBalkans - WatchthisvideobyFrance24EnglishonaEuropeanperspectivefortheBalkans