Growth has been resilient but is slowing
Note: Seasonally and calendar-adjusted data.
Easing inflation will support
a moderate recovery
OECD projections for France
Real GDP growth, %
Consumer price inflation, %
Unemployment rate, %
Note: Consumer price inflation refers to the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.
Addressing fiscal challenges
Fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing reforms would put debt on a sustainable path
Baseline
Scenario A: 50 basis point rise in interest rates
Scenario B: Reforms offsetting cost increases in pensions & health and long-term care
Scenario C: Scenario B + recommended structural reforms
Note: In the baseline, assumptions include nominal GDP growth of 3.2% and an average apparent interest rate of 3.9% by 2060. The primary deficit is expected to narrow gradually to0.5% of GDP in 2030 and to remain at that level thereafter.
Scenario A: Compared to the baseline, the apparent interest rate on debt is 50 basis points higher in 2025 and remains stable thereafter.
Scenario B adds to the baseline a compensation of ageing costs related to pensions, health care and long-term care as described in European Commission 2021 Ageing report.
Scenario C adds to Scenario B the estimated effects of selected reforms proposed in the Survey (improving the efficiency of tax incentives for R&D spending, reducing regulation in the services sector, increasing schools’ accountability, strengthening support to older people in employment). This scenario assumes a rise of 2.3% in structural GDP by 2033.
“The
Public expenditure should be reduced, notably in the local administration
Source: OECD. General government expenditure
Note: Data for the OECD and EU are unweighted averages of countries with available data. Data for Chile, Colombia, the Netherlands and Türkiye are for 2021.
Boosting productivity growth and employment
Boosting innovation and digitalisation and reducing regulation will support potential growth
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.
Share of small and medium-sized enterprises at each level of digital intensity EU Digital Intensity Index, 2022 Note:
Improving educational outcomes
Learning outcomes would benefit from a more frequent use of modern pedagogical practices
Source: OECD Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), 2022 Reading, Mathematics and Science Assessment.
Note: Represents the simple difference in scores, not controlling for any other explaining factors. A socio-economically advantaged (disadvantaged) student is in the top (bottom) quarter of the PISA
Spending should be rebalanced towards primary schools
Total expenditure on educational institutions per full-time equivalent student
2020, in equivalent USD
Note: Equivalent USD are converted using purchasing power parity (PPP) for GDP. Spending on vocational education includes lycées agricoles and centres de formation en alternance (CFA.) EU25 represents EU27 countries except Cyprus and Malta.
Source: OECD Education at a Glance 2023.
Note: The work-based component represents between 25% and 90% of the programme in programmes combining work and study. These programmes may be organised in partnership with the authorities or educational institutions. Source: OECD/UIS/Eurostat Percentage of upper secondary vocational students enrolled in combined
Teachers would benefit from training in classroom management
Note: OECD31 does not include Canada, Costa Rica, Germany, Luxembourg, Poland, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
Source: OECD, TALIS 2018 Database.
Supporting the green transition
All sectors need to contribute to achieve emission reductions
Greenhouse gas emissions
industries and construction Residential and other sectors Energy Industries
2050 net zero target: includes carbon sinks & forests
Note: Excludes land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) except for the 2050 net zero target. Emissions for 2022 are an estimate. The 2030 target is a provisional goal. SNBC-3 will put forward definitive carbon budgets.
Source: Citepa, Greenhouse gas emissions inventory, Secten data, 2023 edition, General Secretariat for Environmental Planning; authors’ calculations.
Carbon prices should be more closely aligned across sectors
Main messages
Fiscal
Reducing public debt should be a priority and requires implementing a short and medium-term fiscal consolidation plan.
Structural reforms
Low potential growth can be revived by supporting innovation and digital skills and by reducing regulatory barriers in services. Labour market policies should target older and young workers.
Education
Education can be improved by rebalancing spending in favour of primary education, making the teaching profession more attractive and allocating more resources to socio - economically disadvantaged students.
Green
Achieving greenhouse gas emissions targets will require boosting environmental policies across many sectors, further aligning carbon prices and accelerating the phase - out of implicit fossil fuel subsidies.
Disclaimers:
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.