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OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF
OSLO 20 June 2024
new challenges oe.cd/NOR
Living standards are among the highest in the OECD, though Norway’s lead has declined over the past 15 years
Note: 1. Expressed in purchasing power parity. Total GDP for Norway.
Source: OECD, National Accounts database.
2
GDP per capita Thousand USD¹ 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Norway OECD upper half
The labour market remains tight
Note: Seasonally adjusted values.
Source: Statistics Norway; OECD, Labour Force Survey.
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Job vacancy rate % of available jobs¹ Unemployment rate % of labour force¹ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
to
4
policy
remain sufficiently restrictive
national
price
adjusted
tax changes
energy
Bank. Inflation and policy interest rate % 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jan-2021 Jul-2021 Jan-2022 Jul-2022 Jan-2023 Jul-2023 Jan-2024 Policy rate Inflation Inflation target
Monetary
should
to bring inflation down
target Note: Inflation refers to the
consumer
index
for
and excluding
products (ATE). Source: Statistics Norway; Norges
Fiscal policy should be tighter
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Source:
Outlook No. 115 database. Balances -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 % of potential GDP % of GDP ←Fiscal balance Structural, non-oil budget balance→ 2023
Note: Fiscal balance is the difference between total government revenues and expenditures. The structural non-oil balance is shown as a share of mainland trend GDP.
OECD Economic
Note: 1. Million standard cubic meter of oil equivalent.
Source: Ministry of Energy and Norwegian Continental Shelf Directorate.
6
Petroleum production is projected to fall, and so are petroleum revenues
Petroleum production Million Sm³ oil equivalent¹ 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Production Projected future production
Growth is expected to pick up
Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 115 database (updated).
Real GDP growth (%) 0.5 2023 2024 2025 Consumer price inflation (%) 5.5 1.2 2.1 2.8 3.7 3.6 4.1 4.0 Unemployment rate (% of labour force)
Raising productivity sustainably
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Productivity is high, though its growth is low
Source: OECD, Productivity database.
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GDP per hour worked % gap to
average,
latest B. GDP per hour worked Average annual growth, %, 2010-2023 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Greece Estonia HungaryCzechia Latvia Poland PortugalLithuania Slovenia Slovak RepublicSpain Italy United KingdomFinland France Iceland GermanyNetherlands Austria BelgiumSweden Denmark Switzerland NorwayLuxembourg -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Greece LuxembourgItalyFrance Netherlands Finland NorwayBelgium United KingdomAustria SpainGermanySweden Denmark Switzerland PortugalEstonia Iceland Czechia Slovenia Hungary Slovak RepublicLithuania Poland Latvia
OECD
2023 or
The decline of foundational skills should be addressed
Note: 1. Programme for International Student Assessment. The score of 500 is the normalised average of all participating countries.
Source: OECD, PISA 2022 results.
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PISA scores¹ 440 450 460 470 480 490 500 510 520 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2022 Reading Mathematics Science
11 Progression opportunities for students in vocational education and training should be expanded Source: OECD, Education at a Glance database. Students in vocational education and training (VET) Share in upper-secondary education, 2021 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 School-based VET Work-based VET
Growing energy demand requires more investment in generation and transmission
Note: 1. Terawatt hours. Long-term power market analyses 2017-2030; long-term power market analysis 2021-2040; and long-term power market analysis 2023-2040.
Source: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate.
12
Electricity consumption TWh, actual and projected¹ 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Actual consumption Projection 2017 Projection 2021 Projection 2023
Taxes on greenhouse gas emissions should gradually be broadened and increased
Source: OECD, Effective Carbon Rates.
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Net effective carbon tax rates 2021 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 20 40 60 80 100 Effective carbon rates in EUR per tone of CO ₂ Cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, from lowest to highest priced Norway OECD
transport
road transport, electricity & other
fisheries & industry
Road
Off-
Construction,
Raising the effectiveness of public spending
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The fiscal framework needs to
15
be strengthened to contain government spending Note: Mainland GDP for Norway. Source: OECD, National Accounts database. Total general government spending, % of GDP 30 40 50 60 70 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Norway Finland Sweden Denmark OECD
Small municipalities should merge, or they should cooperate more closely to increase operational scale
Number of municipalities, by population size 2023 or latest available data
Note: Total number of municipalities in brackets. January 2023 data for Norway and Denmark, December 2022 data for Finland and Sweden.
Source: Statistics Norway; Statistics Finland; Statistics Sweden; Statistics Denmark.
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 to 2500 2501 to 5000 5001 to 10000 10001 to 20000 20001 to 50000 50001 to 100000 100001 to 500000 500001 or more Norway (355) Finland (309) Sweden (289) Denmark (99)
Note: 1. OECD estimates, expressed in current USD purchasing power parities.
Source: OECD, Health at a Glance 2023.
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To contain health spending, coordination between municipal health centres and hospitals should improve
Health expenditure per capita, USD PPP,
nearest year 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 Slovak Republic¹ Poland Greece¹ Estonia Latvia¹ Lithuania Slovenia Portugal Italy Spain¹ Czechia¹ OECD United Kingdom Finland¹ Ireland Denmark Luxembourg Sweden Belgium¹ France¹ Austria Norway¹ Germany Switzerland¹ United States¹ Government/Compulsory Voluntary/Out-of-pocket
2022 or
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investment should become more cost efficient Note: OECD average refers to overall investment weighted average. Source: OECD, National Accounts database. Public investment in percent of total investment 0 5 10 15 20 25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Norway Sweden Finland Denmark OECD
Public
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sick leave compensation rate should be reduced Source: OECD Sickness Leave Database (unpublished). Number of days of sickness absence of full-time dependent employees, annual averages, 2022 or latest 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Greece Hungary Luxembourg Italy Lithuania Poland Ireland Slovak Republic Switzerland Denmark Latvia OECD Netherlands Austria Iceland Belgium Czechia Germany Estonia Sweden Slovenia Spain France Portugal Finland Norway
The
Early intervention should be strengthened to ensure fewer young people enter the disability scheme
Recipients of disability benefit as a share of the population, %, by age
Note: Data from 30 September 2014 to 30 September 2023, excluding recipients of the temporary Work Assessment Allowance (AAP) benefit.
Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration; Statistics Norway.
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2014 2023 18-34 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2014 2023 35-54 21 21.5 22 22.5 23 23.5 2014 2023 55-67 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 2014 2023 Overall
Total support estimate relative to agricultural production %, 2020-22
Note: Countries are ranked according to total support estimate relative to the value of agricultural production in 2020-22.
Source: OECD (2023), Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation 2023.
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Agricultural subsidies need to be lowered and focus on less environmentally harmful forms of support
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
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