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6. Conclusions To reach the global temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, Parties aim to “achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century" (UNFCCC, 2016[2]). The rationale for reaching net-zero emissions was further supported by the subsequent 2018 IPCC Special Report (IPCC, 2018[3]) and reiterated in the 2021 Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, which notes that limiting global warming requires reaching at least net-zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other GHG emissions. The timeline for reaching net-zero varies, for example in scenarios that start in 2015 and have very low and low GHG emissions, limiting global warming to between 1°C to 2.4°C by 2100 requires CO2 emissions to reach net-zero around or after 2050 and then reach varying levels of net-negative CO2 emissions (IPCC, 2021[4]). Against this context, the last few years have seen a considerable rise in the number of net-zero commitments put forward by countries, sub-national governments and companies. According to analysis carried out for this paper, as of 1 October 2021, 51 countries and the EU have adopted net-zero emissions targets that are in law, proposed in legislation, or included in national policy documents. These targets cover around 65% of global CO2 emissions. Many more countries are considering similar targets and over 4,500 non-state actors have joined the “Race to Zero” campaign (UNFCCC, 2020[11]). Countries are adopting diverse approaches across key dimensions of their net-zero targets. Some key differences and similarities across countries’ net-zero targets include the following:
Target status: Countries have chosen different approaches to integrating net-zero commitments in their national policy frameworks. Of the 52 net-zero targets analysed, 17 have been enshrined in law, 4 are in the process of being adopted in the national legislature, and 31 are reflected in an official national policy document, including NDCs and LT-LEDS.
Terminology used: Countries adopt different terms in defining their net-zero commitments (e.g. net-zero, climate neutrality, GHG neutrality, carbon neutrality) which in some cases is misleading (e.g. carbon neutrality used for a target that covers all GHGs) or confusing (e.g. different terms used interchangeably in the same policy document or in different documents).
Scope of GHG emissions: While most net-zero targets analysed are understood to cover all GHG emissions, some countries exclude selected GHG emissions from the scope of their net-zero target (e.g. biogenic methane in New Zealand). In some cases there is ambiguity on the scope of GHG emissions covered (e.g. for certain carbon neutrality targets).
Sectoral coverage: Most targets analysed in this paper are economy-wide. Some net-zero targets exclude certain sectors (e.g. Sweden’s net-zero target excludes emissions and uptake from the LULUCF sector30). Emissions from international aviation and shipping are excluded in most countries' targets assessed in this paper, with a few exceptions (e.g. the UK). Some countries have committed to reviewing this exclusion at a future date (e.g. New Zealand).
30
The LULUCF sector can only contribute to Sweden’s net-zero target through additional measures to increase carbon sequestration in forests and land (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, n.d.[51])
UNDERSTANDING COUNTRIES’ NET-ZERO EMISSIONS TARGETS Unclassified
