MAKING YOUR MILES COUNT Robert D. Scheper
Unvaccinated Turnover Writing an article in the middle of an uncertain negotiation is a gamble. A lot can change in a couple of weeks, especially this close to a January 1st proposed deadline. Negotiations can change very quickly, in either direction. One thing for certain is… nothing is certain. I’d like to comment on the impact of a potential double-digit drop in available trans-border drivers. Canada went through a similar issue like this in May 2003 during the BSE outbreak (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy or Mad Cow Disease), albeit a micro impact. Virtually overnight, almost the entire cattle hauling industry was shut down to US traffic. Nobody knew how long it would last. Some waited while negotiations raged through the media and others took action to preserve their livelihood. Trailers were parked/sold, trucks changed over to the oil rigs, flat deck, reefer and dry van. The move was considered ‘temporary’ by drivers/operators who assumed the shutdown to be in effect only a couple of months. Of course, it dragged out for over three years. Interestingly, many who left livestock hauling never returned. Most of the drivers in livestock today entered post-BSE. The first thing we learned was that drivers/ operators are flexible. They adjusted to a
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changing market; they moved to where they could. Some operators sold their trucks and equipment, some did not. Though BSE was a microcosm compared to all truck freight crossing the US border, it does reflect the pliant nature of human resources. Demands will be met; holes will be filled. The only questions will be is at what cost and how long will it take to fix? The CTA (Canadian Trucking Association) released an estimate that up to 38,000 drivers will not be available to cross the border. My estimates are not as high as their 19%+ drop in capacity; my estimate ranges from 10-12%. Those people who have declined the vaccine are somewhat geographically concentrated (spotted) rather than uniformly distributed, so there will be some jurisdictions and industries where a vacuum of demand will be intense, whereas other areas may be manageable/negligible. One thing is for certain… rates will increase. Vaccinated Operators: Congratulations! As of January 1st, 2022 (proposed) you have suddenly become very, very valuable. Therefore, expect a raise. It’s YOU the industry wants, not your truck, not a super high level of specific abilities or even your ability to work well with others. You can take a trailer across a border… period! You
DECEMBER 2021
