Scientific Paper on Abductive Reasoning and its role in Design decisions for Climate change

Abductive Reasoning - Its role in making Design decisions for climate change Palak Panchal (Student ID number: 962415; Person code: 10775665) Architecture and Urban Design Politecnico di Milano 31st December 2022 Abstract

Abductive reasoning is related to insight and creative problem-solving, and it is this creative problem-solving that is at the heart of the design synthesis methods that follow…The responsibility for harnessing this information falls on the shoulders of Designers, citizens and leaders. Data can help us measure and understand the individual and collective impacts of decision-making for the cities and energy use— and this type of awareness can influence decisions and empower individuals to embrace their role in creating a more sensitive and livable future.

Keywords: Abduction, Design thinking, Architecture, Urban planning, Urban growth, Climate change.

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Introduction

To understand the word “Abduction” let’s start with the derivation of this word. The word in Latin divides into two fragments 1. Ab - which means “away”; 2. Duco – which means “to lead”. When put together termed as “to lead away”.

When put under the anatomy’s context, this word means an “act of drawing apart, a movement that separates a limb from other parts”. [1] When abduction is further explained under logical context it could be understood as “a syllogism, where majorly the premise is evident, and the minor could be probable” [2] The word abduction differs from the words, Deduction – which proves something must be, and Induction – which shows that something which actually is operative.

Abduction – merely suggesting something that something may be.

What is Abductive reasoning?

Abduction means determining the precondition. It is using the conclusion and the rule to assume that the precondition

could explain the conclusion. [3] Abduction sometimes refers to the process of generating possible explanations, sometimes to the process of generating the best explanation, and sometimes, as is often the case in design, to both. (W. Shearer, 2015).

Abduction is an inference mechanism were given a knowledge base and some observations; the reasoner tries to find hypotheses that explain the observations together with the knowledge base. Reasoning based on such an inference mechanism is referred to as abductive reasoning. [3] Understanding complex words through easy day-to-day examples/observations could help us understand this style of reasoning.

E.g., "When it rains, the grass gets wet. The grass is wet, it must have rained."

Diagnosticians and detectives are commonly associated with Abduction reasoning. [3] What is abductive Reasoning through Filtering?

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on (compositional) partial models and formal semantics of the reasoning behaviour based on (compositional) partial temporal models. [5]

Abduction is an inference mechanism where given a knowledge base and some observations, the reasoner tries to find hypotheses which together with the knowledge base explain the observations.

Reasoning based on such an inference mechanism is referred to as abductive reasoning. Given a theory and some observations, by filtering the theory with the observations, we mean selecting only those models of the theory that entail the observations. Entailment with respect to these selected models is referred to as filter entailment. [4]

Design synthesis is fundamentally a way to apply abductive logic within the confines of a design problem.

Methods I. Reframing II. Concept mapping III. Insight combination

We can define design synthesis as an abductive sensemaking process of manipulating, Given a theory and some observations, by organizing, pruning, and filtering data in the filtering the theory with the observations, context of the design problem in an effort to selecting only those models of the theory that produce information and knowledge. entail the observations draws the working of the Abduction reasoning through the filtering “The abductive suggestion comes to us like a process. [4] flash. It is an act of insight, although extremely

fallible insight. It is true that the different elements of the hypothesis were in our minds before, but it is the idea of putting together what we had never before dreamed of putting together which flashes the new suggestion before our contemplation.” [6] Synthesis is an abductive sensemaking process.

Abduction can be thought of as the “step of adopting a hypothesis as being suggested by the facts . . . a form of inference.” [7]

Throughout the course of critical thinking, I was very keen to understand the theory of Abduction reasoning’s application in Architecture and Design derivation and decision-making for any existing or new idea.

Working in a group of people with different educational backgrounds made it more interesting to understand and compare the applications in various fields. This paper tries to focus only on Urban planning and design through the rising issue of climate change.

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The process of design thinking comprises five different stages namely:

The Process in Design thinking

Design tasks typically deal with incomplete information and involve flexible reasoning patterns for which sophisticated control strategies are needed. As a result, the reasoning patterns are highly dynamic and non-monotonic. The logical framework introduced provides formal semantics of state descriptions of design processes based

- Empathise - Define - Ideate - Prototype - Test Designers may follow a user-centred discovery process to immerse themselves in a particular subject or discipline, and then go “incubate” that material. After a period of reflection, they will produce a tangible artefact as a visual representation of the reflection.

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Figure 1 The Process in Design Thinking by Teo Yu Siang and Interaction Design Foundation.

3. Design thinking in Urban Planning and Design.

Figure 2 The Industrial City

These kinds of problems are societal problems, not scientific or engineering problems. Planning problems are inherently wicked. As distinguished from problems in the natural sciences, which are definable and separable and may have solutions that are findable, the problems of governmental planning-and especially those of social or policy planning-are ill-defined; and they rely upon an elusive political judgment for resolution. (Not "solution." Social problems are never solved. At best they are only resolved repeatedly.) [8]

Now, discussing the reasoning specific to Architectural city planning and design, it is considered to be the Wicked Problem.

They are "wicked" problems, whereas science has developed to deal with "tame" problems.

Policy problems cannot be definitively described. Moreover, in a pluralistic society, there is nothing like the undisputable public good; there is no objective definition of equity; policies that respond to social problems cannot be meaningfully correct or false; and it makes no sense to talk about "optimal solutions" to social problems unless severe qualifications are imposed first. [8]

Wicked problems, in contrast, have neither of these clarifying traits; and they include nearly all public policy issues--whether the question concerns the location of a freeway, the adjustment of a tax rate, the modification of school curricula, or the confrontation of crime.

A. Beginning of an Idea

What are wicked problems?

During the industrial age, the idea of planning, in common with the idea of professionalism, was dominated by the pervasive idea of efficiency. That has been a powerful idea.

Planning was seen as a process of designing problem solutions that might be installed and operated cheaply. Because it was easy to get consensus on the nature of problems during the early industrial period, the tasks were assigned to the technically skilled, who in turn could accomplish simplifying the vision.

According to Rittel and Webber, wicked problems take the form of intractable issues, vicious circles, and elusive problems. [8] There is no definitive solution to a wicked problem. They are never solved, but rather resolved repeatedly. Urban issues are wicked

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problems.

climate change problem and the impact it is creating on the earth and human lives. Does this mean that there would be no development? No creating opportunities for the beings? Does that mean no jobs and incomes? This might lead to cultural deprivation. spatial dislocation? problems of ego identity? deficient political and social skills? and so on.

If we can formulate the problem by tracing it to some sort of source such that we can say, "Aha! That's the locus of the difficulty," i.e., those are Figure 3 Urban wicked issues-Interpretation (By author’s the root causes of the differences between the group) "is" and the "ought to be" conditions then we The information needed to understand the have thereby also formulated a solution. To find problem depends upon one's idea for the problem is thus the same thing as finding the solving it. So, in order to describe a wicked solution; the problem can't be defined until the problem in sufficient detail, one must solution has been found. [8] develop a detailed inventory of all conceivable solutions ahead of time. The reason is that every question asking for additional information depends upon the understanding of the problem and its resolution at that time.

Problem understanding and problem resolution are concomitant with each other.

Therefore, in order to anticipate all questions (in order to anticipate all information required for resolution ahead of time), knowledge of all conceivable solutions is required.

Figure 4 Regarding the city and trying to give resolutions to the urban issues; how is the city’s environment? Who makes this environment and how? ((By author’s group)

For wicked planning problems, there are no true or false answers. Normally, many parties are equally equipped, interested, and/or entitled It is not possible to talk about the solution to a to judge the solutions, although none has the design problem; rather, it is only possible to power to set formal decision rules to determine discuss possible resolutions in the future. – correctness. Their judgments are likely to differ Guessing? widely in accord with their group or personal How can we accommodate the future and interests, their special value sets, and their guide our present actions? By anticipation ideological predilections. Their assessments of (proposing hypothesis). proposed solutions are expressed as "good" or The most basic form of anticipation: How is the "bad" or, more likely, as "better or worse" or connection between the system and its "satisfying" or "good enough." environment?

Consider, for example, what would be Planning has been misused: Imposing physical necessary in identifying the nature of the and social arrangements (giving a “solution”) 5 B. Abduction and wicked problems

rather than letting possible resolutions has it become an important issue to be emerge. The way in which we understand the addressed? How does political opinion city does not depend on the planner's plan. influence the outcome?

Maybe it comes up spontaneously. An experiment on freedom will not look like a 4. Urban Planning and planner’s dream but it could work. [9]

Design for Climate change.

Nearly seventy per cent of the world’s population lives near areas where sea levels are expected to rise dramatically and inundate urban areas. Thus, urban planning is at the forefront of the needs of basic human existence as we face a new challenge of matching the forces of nature against the building systems of mankind.

Unfortunately, very few urban planning tools are being considered in the redeployment of resources in a climate change era by national and local policymakers. [10]

Figure 5 Abstract representation of A Non-Plan-Plan

Cities are growing and as climate change continues, the urban landscape might continue to feel the effects of "crisis." The built environment of cities accounts for 70 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions while consuming two-thirds of the world's energy, according to C40 Cities. [11] Infrastructure failures and resource shortages are a few of the effects of climate change which are vast and urban landscapes have a responsibility to plan accordingly.

C. Non planning as a hypothesis.

If cities are composed by people, why not let people shape their own environments?

What would happen if there were no plans?

What would people prefer to do?

At least, one would find out what people want, which can be one wicked problem planners have struggled to answer all this time. The city is a never-ending learning Cities consume the vast majority of our natural scenario. [9] resources. Over 230 billion square meters of In experimenting with the planning of a city new urban development will be constructed to make a liveable society there is a growing worldwide over the next 40 years, the concern about climate change which impacts equivalent of adding a city the size of Paris to the development and the existence of living the planet every single week. beings.

Instead of looking at rapid urban growth as a Now when we say climate change and threat, we should consider it our best Planning and Designing the city, how largely opportunity to save the planet. It’s a chance to it impacts the decision-making process? Why reimagine the very nature of our cities from the 6

ground up and build a future that is more in and knowledge, and has introduced three balance with the Earth’s resources and methods of formalizing the synthesis process in practice. ecosystems. [12] Each of the methods—reframing, concept and insight combination— To fully address the challenge, we must look mapping, beyond individual buildings: it takes more emphasizes prioritizing, judging, and forging than sustainable structures to make a connections. These qualities are derived resilient city. It also requires rethinking transit directly from the logical processes of abduction infrastructure, energy production, industry, and the cognitive psych ology theory of and more. On top of this, we’ll need to sensemaking. By applying these methods in address new challenges that are emerging practice, by commonly and continually due to the climate crisis including sea level describing the role of synthesis, and by considering synthesis in Design Research, both rise and extreme weather events. practitioners and researchers can better realize Through energy (solar panels, recycling and how life experience drives design decisions, and waste management, high-performance how inferential leaps can systematically drive insulation, etc.), transportation (electric innovation. [7] vehicle fleets for cities, autonomous vehicles, micro-transit, etc.) and technology (using Human activity is responsible for changes in the data to track individual impact, truly reaching climate. Scientists and the members of the "smart city" status), positive impacts can be general public who are skeptical about the theory of human-caused climate change have made. varied viewpoints along the spectrum.

A blurring of boundaries is taking place across Some reject the idea that human-caused the design professions. We must work to climate change exists; others have argued that better understand global forces at play so human-made climate change is occurring but that we may find new forms of collaboration. that the extent to which climate is changing and Building the cities of the future will require a the precise impact of human activity is coordinated effort across many fields of uncertain. Another group has argued that science and technology, government, and policies aimed at addressing human-caused private industry. In particular, designers will climate change are misguided or counterneed to become both more responsive to productive. priorities set forth by policymakers, and more active in helping to shape and advocate for It is time to suggest a research and policy policies that will enable the sweeping paradigm to craft better urban planning systems in response to climate change. changes we need. [12] Holistic urban design can tie all these threads together into a complete, coherent vision.

5. Conclusion This paper has defined design synthesis as an abductive sensemaking process of manipulating, organizing, pruning, and filtering data in the context of a design problem, in an effort to produce information

Figure 6 Flow chart giving an overview of understanding the theory of Abduction reasoning (by author)

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3 Available: ] https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry /Abductive_reasoning. [ C. Baral, 4 "223090302_Abductive_reasoning_through_Fi ] ltering," https://www.researchgate.net/publication, (2000). [ P. V. A. L. A. J. T. FRANCES BRAZIER, "A 5 LOGICAL THEORY OF DESIGN," Amsterdam, ] The Netherlands, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. [ C. S. Peirce, ""Pragmatism as the Logic of 6 Abduction," in The Essential Peirce: Selected ] Philosophical Writings," Peirce Edition Project (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1988), 227, 1893-1913. [ J. Kolko, "Abductive Thinking and 7 Sensemaking: The Drivers ] of Design Synthesis.," MIT's Design Issues: Volume 26, Number 1 Winter 2010, 2010. [ H. W. J. R. a. M. M. WEBBER, "Dilemmas in a 8 General Theory of Planniing," University of ] California, Berkeley, Berkeley, U.S.A.. [ R. Banhham, "Non-Plan: An experiment in 9 freedom," et al. (1969). . ] [ E. J. Blakely, "Urban Planning for Climate 1 Change, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy0 Working Paper," 2007 Lincoln Institute of Land ] Policy , New Orleans, LA 70112. [ "C40 Cities," [Online]. Available: 1 https://www.c40.org/about-c40/.

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