Haiti: just another failed state? After a series of violence and natural disasters caused havoc , what is the outlook for Haiti?

Rory Smith

‘State Failure’ is a dirty term in the West. It conjures up images of tinpot dictators, vicious warlords and devastating humanitarian crises. A horrific and lamentable situation, but one that only occurs far away from us in the West, in places like Somalia, South Sudan and Afghanistan. They are felt to have li le impact on the West, and are easily forge able. Less than two hours away from Miami, a state is collapsing before our very eyes. Haiti has been destabilised by years of foreign intervention and sits on a fault line that causes powerful and regular earthquakes - an earthquake in 2010 caused $8 billion worth of damage, and left lasting social impacts.

In the summer of 2021, Haiti all out collapsed. Amidst an atmosphere of general political unrest, the President, Jovenel Moise, was assassinated. A quirk of timing and the Haitian Constitution meant that there was no clear successor. Instead, former Prime Minister Claude Joseph, Prime Minister Ariel Henry (who had been declared PM the day before the a ack but had not yet been sworn into the role) and Senate Speaker Joseph Lambert were all able to lay claim to the role.

Haiti has been detabilised by years of foreign intervention

The government, weak and riven by infighting, declared a state of emergency. It did not have the ability or funds to mitigate the damage, estimated at 10% of Haiti’s GDP. Criminal gangs stepped into the vacuum left by the state. Due to suspected links to the Haitian political and business elites, two major gangs, G-9 and G-Pep, were able to use earthquake relief money to buy weapons from the impoverished Haitian military.

The circumstances of President Moise’s death further aggravated the situation. Henry, who eventually won the presidency, promised elections that still have not yet happened, and was accused of involvement in the murder. The former PM was allegedly killed on the orders of a cabal of prominent Haitian political and civil leaders whom he had been investigating for corruption, and Henry had allegedly had contact with a key suspect. The choice of Henry for President was thus not one to inspire confidence in the Haitian political elite.

The final seeds of state collapse were sown when a 7.2 magnitude earthquake hit Haiti in August 2021, killing more than 2000 people.

Meanwhile, gangs provided a safety net for newly homeless and unemployed men, left resourceless at a time when the government was too weak to respond to the crisis. Gangs now control at least 60% of Port-au-Prince and there is open warfare on the streets. The UN estimates 1,377 people were lost to gang-related violence between June and September in the capital last year. It is too dangerous to travel the streets, except under guard: 1,107 people were kidnapped between January and October 2022.

Haiti is still without an elected president and the government is accused of being in league with the gangs, rendering it unable to solve the crisis. Senate Speaker Joseph Lambert has recently been sanctioned by the US for his alleged involvement with organised crime. MPs cannot access their own parliament building, as it is in gang territory. In September last year, gangs captured Haiti’s fuel port and held it to ransom for two months, crippling the economy further whilst increasing their share of its income.

Recently, Haiti has been hit by more violence as the police, fed up with gang a acks on police stations (14 police officers killed in the first two weeks of January), have rioted. There looks to be no end to the violence in sight. There is a failed state in the western hemisphere.

Seemingly out of the blue at a routine press conference, the Prime Minister and Leader of the New Zealand Labour party resigned. Kiwis, and the world along with them were shocked when Jacinda Ardern, a beacon of progressive politics in populist times, announced her plan to step down. Most Prime Ministers rise to power on their own terms, and few leave without being marred by scandal or party revolt. Perhaps it is emblematic of her premiership that Ms Ardern, in her signature Kiwi dignity, could admit to herself that she no longer had “enough in the tank” to carry out her job.

Most Prime Ministers rise to power on their own terms, and few leave without being

By Scandal Or Party Revolt

Her reputation for good governance and quiet competence was shown by her deftness and delicacy after the Christchurch Mosque shooting and her willingness to sacrifice longterm economic damage for the preservation of life in response to Covid-19. This la erly has become much more controversial. While having six times fewer deaths than the UK adjusted for population, the lockdowns Ardern employed were much more brutal, and the vaccine roll-out was much slower.

The social and economic ramifications have caught up with Kiwis, with Ardern’s party being punished in the polls, down from her historic 49% landslide, to polling at 30% this January. She has offered li le in terms of economic recovery, only proposing a tax on the top 2%, and the hope that tourism may rescue soaring inflation, currently at a 32-year high of 7.3%. It is unusual for a party in a proportional system to be able to govern outright, but this has landed Ardern with the curse of personal responsibility for all her successes and failures. Those down under blame her and her alone for their version of the costof-living crisis, a dangerous game for any government.

Her replacement, Chris Hipkins, her odd-jobs man in government, was appointed Prime Minister unopposed. Known for his upbeat persona and quiet competence, he is seen as a continuation of the Ardern ministry. He pulled the strings behind New Zealand’s Covid-19 policy, and then after a rise in gang crime as a side effect of Labour’s failed social housing policy, Ardern dispatched him on a mission to oversee the national police force.

However, if the tank is running dry, why go for continuity? Mr Hipkins has promised a back-tobasics approach to government; he has stripped back the pursuit of unpopular policies on water companies and the treasured state broadcasters, and has set his sight on reducing the squeeze on Kiwi pockets. He has also been seen as competent in the way he dealt with the recent Auckland landslides, landing him some popularity win the polls. Only time will tell if this will translate into the ballot box and overcome their National party rivals.

Now that the ‘Jacinda-mania’ has worn off, many are asking what her future holds - when she was elected, she was one of the youngest heads of government in the globe at age 37. Many ex-heads of government struggle to replicate their successes after their taste of power. In the short term, she has commented on the ‘sacrifices’ made by her family during her time in power

Now that the ‘Jacinda-mania’ has worn off, many are asking what her future holds

Many people have speculated that she may get involved on the international stage, in the UN or another NGO, or potentially representing New Zealand. As a young head of government, some have speculated another potential term in office; at 42 she is nearly half the age of US President Joe Biden. Or she may, in the long line of former heads of government, set up her own foundation. Either way, while she is refilling those tanks, her premiership will be remembered for her dignity, compassion, and competence, and the way that projected onto the world stage.

As your season comes to an end, it’s time to let love into your life once and for all. Break down those walls that have been holding you back from commitment, they are thinner than you think.