การพัฒนาตลาดตราสารหนี้ในประเทศให้เป็น 1 ใน 3 เสาหลักทางการเงิน

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การพัฒนาตลาดตราสารหนีใ้ นประเทศ ให้เป็น 1 ใน 3 เสาหลักทางการเงิน พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2554 ประชุม”สบน. งบประมาณ 171,114,531,400 บาท” รัฐสภา

ก ก % • ก 1 3 ก ก • ก . . 2551-2555 • % &'( ) * % +( ( • ก , . . 2551-2555 • ก ก* - ./ , 0 - 2555

24 ก 2554

1 %+ 7.118 ( (- 65 :( GDP) (. + /1 ((ก)

, ก1 ก, 1%

(ก) 18% ก 5 7% 7 % . + 0 - 36%

38% : ( 1

22 ? 5 ก - 2554

5 ภภ? -O ภ, 1+% , :( 3 ภ:( , O ภ7 ภภ%

+ - 12% :( GDP . . 2540

140%

128%

128%

120% 105%

100%

98% 98%

76%

80%

75%

67%% 65

72% 72%

67%

60%

52% 52%

40%

39%% 39

ภ? -O ภ,

20% 7%

12%

12%

Bank Loan / GDP

Equity Market / GDP

2554 (Q3)

2553

2552

2551

2550

2549

2548

2547

2546

2545

2544

2543

2542

2541

2540

2539

2538

2537

2535

0%

2536

7%

Bond Market / GDP

&'( % - - 1+ภ'- ' -& The 5 ภภ, Thai Bond Market has Developed Rapidly and Efficiently 10

8

O ภ7 ภภ%

100%

ภ+(0 2554: + ภ-ภPD + ภ)&'( V- *1 * % + LB 50 , ILB 80% + 7 &'( --+(- C

2550 @ 2553: ŕ¸

ภ? @ 2543: ภ((ภ&'(ภ, C ภ5 1 %+ ' :D 3 + 7 ' :D ภ+ 50 +

((ภ7 Benchmark (-+ 'O (

% &'( &( ภ+P

. 5 ภ) ,ŕ¸

+ :(

' :D 5 ภ3% 44

(BoT and PD)

67 65%%

6

)+ ภ+( ภ? -O ภ, - 0 + * % +( - 0 + Benchmark bond - /1 ((ภ+ T+%&( ภ5 - ภ, + T+ --+(-

% of GDP

4

60%

40%

2555F

2554 (Q1)

2553

2552

2551

2550

2549

2548

2547

2546

2545

2544

2543

2542

2541

0% 2540

0 2539

20%

2538

2

1

2550 . , ภ-, ภ((ภ7 7 . ภ. ภ33. . 2550 . , ภ-, 7Z 7Z ภ((ภภ, ภภPublic Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance - Thailand O ŕ¸

7 ภภ%

I.

% [ ' ภ1

II.

' 1 +(%

5 ภZ 1 % &( &( ( &'(ภ+( ภภภ5 - supply :( 7 Benchmark 'O ( ( )

+ -:

8,000

10,000

12,000

15,000

4,000 FYFY07 50

III. ' :( 7 Benchmark

+ -:

FY 51 FY08

FY 52 FY09

1 0 0, 0 0 0

FY 52 FY10

FY 54 FY11

1 2 0, 0 0 0

40,000 FYFY07 50

FY 51 FY08

FY 52 FY09

FY 52 FY10

FY 54 FY11

2

Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty ก , ก ก

Million Baht

200,000

207,270

Actual

+170% 175,999

200,500

203,000

+2%

+33% 43,191

60,000

59%)

677,961 MB (+

+86%

80,000

100,000 65,000

Total Funding needs increased from: 424,691 MB to

Plan

0

CASH BAL = 278,694 MB

Benchmark Bond

200,000

0 Benchmark Bond

CASH BAL = 417,166 MB

154,000

170,000

131,000

100,000

-45%

-8%

-51% 82,233

20%)

Actual

281,000

309,826

310,000

300,000

60,000

635,000 MB (-

Others

Plan

0%

+118% Total Funding needs decreased from: 801,171 MB to

T-Bill (Outstanding)

Million Baht

FY2010 Lower Borrowing needs due to Economic Recovery approx. -160,000 MB

Savings Bond

261,171

400,000

Non Benchmark Bond

80,692

Higher government funding needs due to Stimulus Package I & II approx. +250,000 MB

+40%

238,941

300,000

281,000

FY2009

Non Benchmark Bond

Savings Bond

T-Bill

Others

(Outstanding)

Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan

Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty ก , ก ก

Million Baht 400,000

FY 2011

Plan

approx. -250,000

300,000

339,900

349,500

Higher than expected revenue collection

Actual

-3%

MB

Total Funding needs decreased from: 709,014 MB to

-38%

36%)

125,691

+344% 9,000

1,072

0

CASH BAL = 510,180 MB

0 Benchmark Bond

Non Benchmark Bond

Saving Bond

T-Bill (Outstanding)

ILB

-85% 29,954

-26% 70,000

95,000

100,000

40,000

452,617 MB (-

205,514

204,000

200,000

Others

3

% , :( 0 O ภ7 ภภ%

/1 ((ŕ¸

• 82 ŕ¸

ภ!" # $ %&'() * "! + %, $" + ! -*) * .

%, *

• 98 # $ ภ- ภ% %,$" + ! -*) *

! * Investment Grade

/1 [&(% (

• %&, ภ* $

%ภ. .ภ# ; + % !" ) ภ$ ภ%

(. + /1 ((ภ) Total Outstanding 7.118

% + )&'([&(:( * - BBB

2%

A

(ภ)

19

%

ภ5 8

%

7 . 36%

AA

(&' P

9%

7%

3%

39%

AAA

38

4%

ภ5 8

%

(. + /1 [(& )

Government

%

13%

27 % ( ภ, - - )

( ภ, --+(-)

39% Household and Non-profit

32

%

Depository Corporation

7 % )-Z26% 18 %

%

' : ThaiBMA (30 ภ- - 2554)

2550-2554

38

Insurance and % Other Corporation

( ภ, + ) )

7 . 34

' : ThaiBMA (22 ? 5 ภ- 2554)

5%

7 .

' : 7 . (30 ภ- - 2554)

ภ:(

FY 2550-2553

O ภ7 ภภ%

7 30

• )+ ATM f )

ภ+! ภ6 I D 10 I • * . Portfolio $ $ ภ5.7 D 6.3 I

7 . (- 4 (FRB)

• )+ % !" Float ` Fixed ภ5% D 13% • ! + # $ ! BIBOR

(( -Z: 0

• & %ภ. ! ; -!" * Q () P ภŕ¸

+ • # ภ, %&, -!" ; ภ. % F,%

FY 2011

l TT ) - - (( (ภ-% ')

7 50 7 ) )- jk( 7 &'( --+(- C

FY 2012

Amortized Bond Bond Switching & Consolidation

, 7 V-) Z.

' PD

• ; %ภ. " )+ = ภ% *) " / " ภ. • P+! .ภ%, Benchmark Bond • , < ภ, )= + * . Portfolio • D ) 4 ภ)

ภ% F,% - 50 I ( ! ภ% ภK L %) ; ) • , < UV ( • )+$" + ภภ%, P ! ภ• D ; ภEmerging Asia Economies )

ภILB • " % )= ภ'* 1,000 , • + '* P % I • + '* Q! $ *) ATM • • • •

$ *) +* ŕ¸

+ . = %, $ ภMega Project ;,, PPP -= $* ภ! $ ,ภ= . *) ! +" % ภ$ %

%&, ; %ภ. + %,

< ภ. ; , % ŕ¸

< P ! + F # )+" $ $ !

.! + = " .! ) $ ! ) )+ (

ภ( , ภ1 &'(ภV% 7 . (ภ.)

Baht Bond

CGIF (Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility)

4

% &'( ) % O t5:( ภ7 Benchmark O ภ7 ภภ%

Popular Benchmark Bond: % F,% Benchmark .! . 5 I + ภ'* D % %, ) 1 ($ D 25% ภ'* % + )

!" : % Share of Market Trading Volume

Turnover Ratio: % F,%

.! . 5 I ! ภ"! $! f ) ) 0.7 - 1.0

28%

27% 20%

5

20%

3.9 3.1

1.7

2.4

2.2

7% FY 51 FY08

FY 52 FY09

FY 53 FY10

FYFY11 54

Demand Concentration: 80 ภ'* % F,%

%&,

ภ.ภ%" ! 10 % %,; ŕ¸

FY07 FY 50

FY08 FY 51

FY09 FY 52

FY10 FY 53 FY11 FY 54

Well Developed Benchmark Bond Pays Off: %&, + . " % F,%

Benchmark P $ ภ$ ภ%,

!" : % Share of Market Trading Volume

+3.2 bps +1.4 bps

+1.2 bps

70%

383,269 .

76%

80%

223,363 .

78%

440,826 .

84%

409,900 .

FY 50 FY07

-0.4 bps FY07 FY 50

FY08 FY 51

FY09 FY 52

FY10 FY 53

FY11 FY 54

FYFY51 51

FY 52 FY52

FYFY53 53

FY 54 FY54

&'( 0::( 7 ) )- jk( (Inflation Linked Bond: ILB) (14 ภ.%. 2554) O ภ7 ภภ%

1 .

Capital Indexed Bond (%, % ( )

ภ,

,+ ( -,:( 7

10

40,000

)O (ภ-

,ภ6 &(

) ( (

Headline CPI

Indexation Lag

3 &(

Index Ratio

CPIt /CPI0

( (ภ-. 5

1.2 %

7 ภ)O %&

Bullet

ภ+(0 ภ((ภ(-+ +( &('

ภ5 [ ภ+

15,000 MB

[ ŕ¸

20,000 MB

5,000 MB

--+(-

ภ5( w& ( : 1.4 +

+ * % +( :( 7 ) )- jk( FY 2555 : ./ ภ((ภILB (-+ +( &'( - 7 ภ1 ( ,ภ0 ) FY 2012 : ' -( % % :( ILB ,+ ( -, ( ภ60,000 '( + * % +( ภILB ./ +(0 : ((ภILB ,+ ( -,(&' (3- 5- 7 )

' :( PD

FY 2012 : ภC + ภ1 ILB . ŕ¸

./ +(0 : ภC + ภ)& (: - ILB ( ./ +(0 : ( firm bid / ask spreads (

5

13

z 7 &'( --+(- C (Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers) 29 .%. 54 O ภ7 ภภ%

ภ. ภŕ¸

ภ!"#! $ ภ#! !%ภ# & ' &( ! ) %*+ ,# )- ภ# ' .- ภ' /) - ภ01 , 2 / /% . .( # , 3 , 2 / 4 ,1)

, "56 ( 1 Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers)

1) #', "5! ) /ภ/ . ภ, 2 / ! , M! ) # 3 ภภ1 1. 01 ' /) - , 1,000 ! . ภภ/ 10,000 ! 2. ภ.- ) - / ! S . ภภ/ 5 3. ภ, ) U ! ภ.- 1) ATM . ภภ/ .- ' ' 2 / ! . / . , 2 / 4 ,1)

, "56 ' &( # .- # ภ! ! ) ภ# ' / & ภภ$ . '

' , 2 / 4 ! !

! ) &( ภ.- , 2 / V / ATM &1 $ ! ) 1 ' ภ, 3 , 2 / 4 ,1)

, "5 ' $ Electronics ! )# , 2 / . ภ"(ภ5 ภ.-

, 2 / ,1)

, "5 / M X/ ( ! ) 2) ! )! - ภ# 5* M ( ! ) 3) ! , 2 / ! )# ภ. U U U U . / . ) ภY ' ภ# !2 + , -- ภภภ--

Fact & Figures &'( 0::( “ 7 &'( --+(- Câ€? ( -, : 3 I ( (ภ- : 3.75 ! I )& (: ' O : 1,000 , )& (: 1 : 1,000,000 , [ '5O + - : ATM ; $ <

< F $ ภ. P ภ5+ - (ภ- : ! I 2 " 5O + - : 29 $+ – 30 F% " $+ 2555 6

13

% ( ก , 5 5O . . 2551 - 55 (. + * ก} -) O ก 7 ก ก %

800,000

80,000

600,000

233,023

48,162 49,999

260,000

67,740

107,099

400,000

58,940 69,731 73,178 69,440 35,731 10,000 56,582

200,000

441,061

25,000

39,836 52,000 400,000

232,575 165,000

200,666

0

2551

2552

2553

2554

2555F

2551 2552 (- (-

2553 2554 (- (-

2555F (-

. :

,

165,000

62%

441,061

64%

232,575

35%

200,666

47%

400,000

54%

. V%

56,582

21%

67,740

10%

25,000

4%

52,000

12%

. .ก. FIDF 1

10,000

4%

49,999

7%

69,440

11%

39,836

9%

107,099

14%

. .ก. FIDF 3

35,731

13%

48,162

7%

69,731

11%

73,178

17%

233,023

31%

80,000

12%

260,000

40%

58,940

14%

By source

. .ก. 52 (TKK) % ( ก , 5

267,313

100% 686,962

100%

656,746

100% 424,620

100%

740,122

100%

7

13

ภ, 5O . . 2551 - 2555 (. + * % &(' &() O ภ7 ภภ%

800,000

ภ100,000 80,000

% ( ภ, 5

600,000

30,000

50,000

22,000

65,000 260,000

134,000

400,000

50,693

125,122 47,000 61,171 3

25,950

200,000

58,940

46,000 54,014 1,075

18,000

400,000

370,269 288,572

264,591

82,230

71,309 40,000

223,363

00 ภ. - (T-bill &( Bank Loan) &'(150,000 % '- . % &'( &( +P

By product

124,254

2551

2552

7 (LB) 7 (( -Z (SB) l TT ) (P/N) l % ((ภ+ (T-bill) (+) 7 ( (ภ- (- (FRB) ภ1 5 ภ7 % )-Z (Bank Loan) (+) 7 (( -Z: 0 (SB_UP)

223,363 18,000 25,950 0

% ( ภ, 5

267,313

2552 (-

84% 7% 10% 0%

370,269

54%

50,693 134,000 22,000 30,000 80,000

7% 20% 3% 4% 12%

686,962

288,572 3 61,171 0 47,000 260,000

82,230 124,254

267,313

100%

686,962

2555F 2554 (-

33% 0% 7% 0% 5% 30%

656,746

7 (( -Z: 0 (SB_UP) 7 (LB) 7 ) )- jk( (ILB) l TT ) ( .% ' (Fixed P/N) Amortized Bond ภ,

2554 2553

(-

100%

40,000

30,000

34,600

2553

2551

60,000

863,230

264,591 1,075 54,014 0 46,000 58,940

2555F (-

46% 0% 9% 0% 8% 10%

424,620 10% 14%

100%

71,309 40,000 34,600

570,529

(-

400,000

46%

125,122 65,000 50,000

14% 7% 6%

100,000

11%

740,122 12% 7% 6%

100%

60,000 40,000 30,000

870,122

7% 5% 3%

100%

8

9

2555

: ภ56 6ภ6%76$ ! # ) 89 $ !% . ': . ) TBMA (( 8 5 ภ. . 54)

!% . can do/ cannot lead

!% . can do/ can lead

( ภ/ %./% *./ภ. . ./ ./TBMA)

4.2 * C SBT :( C ŕ¸

( ภ++)

2554 - 2558

2555

4.1 -ภ* C 0 '% 5 ภCapital Gain :( ภ, --+(- ' Resident . Non-Resident

KPI : Execution Rate 25%

2.2 NR ((ภBaht Bond ( ./7 ./ภ. . .)

KPI : 1 Pilot Project

2.1 CGIF ( ./ภ. . ./ ภ/TBMA/PD)

2555

/ * ƒZ ŕ¸

, * C

} 1 ภ} -

ภ)&'( V-

&'( ( AEC 2015

-ภภภ/1ภ:

:( .

2554

2555

2556

- Post Office ( .)

2555

2554 - 2558

5.7 Securitization O Infrastructure mortgage ( ภ/7 ./ภ. . ./TBMA) 2554 - 2558

2556

5.6 ( Retail Bond ( ./ ภ/TBMA/PD)

5.8 % 1 Issuer . Investor ( ภ/7 ./ภ. . ./TBMA)

2554 - 2558

7.1 - ภ,%%

% . %, % ( /1 ,

7

Retail Bond

Scriptless

( ./ %./7 ../ ภ. . ../ ./TBMA)

5.5 , ภภƒZ Municipal Bond ( ./( .)

2555

- Electronic & Internet ( .)

KPI : Launched/Liquidity

5.4 Retail Bond : ATM ( .)

5.3 Amortized Bond ( .)

2555

KPI : Launched/Liquidity

5.2 Benchmark Bond 3 ( ./7 .)

6

( % - ภC 2555

5.1 Inflation-Linked Bond ( ./7 ./TBMA/PD)

5

4

3

2

1

!" ภ! # !" ภ$ % & #! ' ()

10 ภภ2555 ( ภ1 - 7)

10

( ./ %./ ภ/ % ./7 ./ ภ. . ./ ./TBMA)

* % (ภ) 8.1.4 * C &'( %+ ) 5+ -((ภ.ภ+/1 ((ภ- +) ' % 8.1.5 ภ((ภCover Bond, Guarantee Bond 8.1.6 DภC . ภ5 Monoline 8.1.7 % 1 ภ((ภ, ภ1 2554 - 2558 8.1.8 , ภภ,

2555 - 2556

(7 ./ภ. . ./ ./TBMA)

2554 - 2558

: ภ56 6ภ6%76$ ! # ) 89 $ !% . ': . ) TBMA (( 8 5 ภ. . 54)

( % . /7 . /ภ. . ./TBMA)

2554 - 2556

8.2.1 Private repo and Short sell 8.2.2 ' issue size :( SOE V - ) Re-open 8.2.3 /+( % - ภƒZ NR , 0 ภ:D 8.2.4 Bond Futures and Interest rate future 8.2.5 DภC . ภ' * % +( ( O (ภ)

8.1.1 /1 % ภ(Primary Dealers : PD) 8.1.2 Bond Switching 8.1.3 Bond Consolidation

8.3 + --+(8.3.1 Bond Mart/ , Website/ )&'( website 7 . 8.3.2 ( % 1

ภภ%( Z ) '

8.2 * % +( (

9

8

8.1 . ŕ¸

!% . can do/ cannot lead

!% . can do/ can lead

( ./ %./7 ./ภ. . ./ ./TBMA)

2554 - 2558

8.4.1 OTC ETP 8.4.2 TFIIC 8.4.3 . „ ( 7, ŕ¸

, ภ1 8.4.4 ภ, '.:t .ภ+ ( (, %ภ, :( ภ( , . ภ, [ . / ภภ( , ' , , ภ1 ) 8.4.5 7 ภ)O % . + ( * %

8.4 V% &

C ภ5 : - . % Z ( 'O

10

!" ภ! # !" ภ$ % & #! ' ()

10 ภภ2555 ( ภ8 - 10)

&(( ) ภ7 &'(ภ(-+ - ' -&

! , + )+ +P : ) %ภภp q % Fภ.

02 265 8050 ! 5100

juk@mof.go.th

Q = " ภ= %ภ, F s

= %ภ%t 02 271 7999 ! 5812, 5806, 5802

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