ก ก % • ก 1 3 ก ก • ก . . 2551-2555 • % &'( ) * % +( ( • ก , . . 2551-2555 • ก ก* - ./ , 0 - 2555
24 ก 2554
1 %+ 7.118 ( (- 65 :( GDP) (. + /1 ((ก)
, ก1 ก, 1%
(ก) 18% ก 5 7% 7 % . + 0 - 36%
38% : ( 1
22 ? 5 ก - 2554
5 ภภ? -O ภ, 1+% , :( 3 ภ:( , O ภ7 ภภ%
+ - 12% :( GDP . . 2540
140%
128%
128%
120% 105%
100%
98% 98%
76%
80%
75%
67%% 65
72% 72%
67%
60%
52% 52%
40%
39%% 39
ภ? -O ภ,
20% 7%
12%
12%
Bank Loan / GDP
Equity Market / GDP
2554 (Q3)
2553
2552
2551
2550
2549
2548
2547
2546
2545
2544
2543
2542
2541
2540
2539
2538
2537
2535
0%
2536
7%
Bond Market / GDP
&'( % - - 1+ภ'- ' -& The 5 ภภ, Thai Bond Market has Developed Rapidly and Efficiently 10
8
O ภ7 ภภ%
100%
ภ+(0 2554: + ภ-ภPD + ภ)&'( V- *1 * % + LB 50 , ILB 80% + 7 &'( --+(- C
2550 @ 2553: ŕ¸
ภ? @ 2543: ภ((ภ&'(ภ, C ภ5 1 %+ ' :D 3 + 7 ' :D ภ+ 50 +
((ภ7 Benchmark (-+ 'O (
% &'( &( ภ+P
. 5 ภ) ,ŕ¸
+ :(
' :D 5 ภ3% 44
(BoT and PD)
67 65%%
6
)+ ภ+( ภ? -O ภ, - 0 + * % +( - 0 + Benchmark bond - /1 ((ภ+ T+%&( ภ5 - ภ, + T+ --+(-
% of GDP
4
60%
40%
2555F
2554 (Q1)
2553
2552
2551
2550
2549
2548
2547
2546
2545
2544
2543
2542
2541
0% 2540
0 2539
20%
2538
2
1
2550 . , ภ-, ภ((ภ7 7 . ภ. ภ33. . 2550 . , ภ-, 7Z 7Z ภ((ภภ, ภภPublic Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance - Thailand O ŕ¸
7 ภภ%
I.
% [ ' ภ1
II.
' 1 +(%
5 ภZ 1 % &( &( ( &'(ภ+( ภภภ5 - supply :( 7 Benchmark 'O ( ( )
+ -:
8,000
10,000
12,000
15,000
4,000 FYFY07 50
III. ' :( 7 Benchmark
+ -:
FY 51 FY08
FY 52 FY09
1 0 0, 0 0 0
FY 52 FY10
FY 54 FY11
1 2 0, 0 0 0
40,000 FYFY07 50
FY 51 FY08
FY 52 FY09
FY 52 FY10
FY 54 FY11
2
Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan
Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty ก , ก ก
Million Baht
200,000
207,270
Actual
+170% 175,999
200,500
203,000
+2%
+33% 43,191
60,000
59%)
677,961 MB (+
+86%
80,000
100,000 65,000
Total Funding needs increased from: 424,691 MB to
Plan
0
CASH BAL = 278,694 MB
Benchmark Bond
200,000
0 Benchmark Bond
CASH BAL = 417,166 MB
154,000
170,000
131,000
100,000
-45%
-8%
-51% 82,233
20%)
Actual
281,000
309,826
310,000
300,000
60,000
635,000 MB (-
Others
Plan
0%
+118% Total Funding needs decreased from: 801,171 MB to
T-Bill (Outstanding)
Million Baht
FY2010 Lower Borrowing needs due to Economic Recovery approx. -160,000 MB
Savings Bond
261,171
400,000
Non Benchmark Bond
80,692
Higher government funding needs due to Stimulus Package I & II approx. +250,000 MB
+40%
238,941
300,000
281,000
FY2009
Non Benchmark Bond
Savings Bond
T-Bill
Others
(Outstanding)
Keep Our Word to get Investor Confidence for the Plan
Firm Committed Supply of Benchmark Bond Regardless of Budget uncertainty ก , ก ก
Million Baht 400,000
FY 2011
Plan
approx. -250,000
300,000
339,900
349,500
Higher than expected revenue collection
Actual
-3%
MB
Total Funding needs decreased from: 709,014 MB to
-38%
36%)
125,691
+344% 9,000
1,072
0
CASH BAL = 510,180 MB
0 Benchmark Bond
Non Benchmark Bond
Saving Bond
T-Bill (Outstanding)
ILB
-85% 29,954
-26% 70,000
95,000
100,000
40,000
452,617 MB (-
205,514
204,000
200,000
Others
3
% , :( 0 O ภ7 ภภ%
/1 ((ŕ¸
• 82 ŕ¸
ภ!" # $ %&'() * "! + %, $" + ! -*) * .
%, *
• 98 # $ ภ- ภ% %,$" + ! -*) *
! * Investment Grade
/1 [&(% (
• %&, ภ* $
%ภ. .ภ# ; + % !" ) ภ$ ภ%
(. + /1 ((ภ) Total Outstanding 7.118
% + )&'([&(:( * - BBB
2%
A
(ภ)
19
%
ภ5 8
%
7 . 36%
AA
(&' P
9%
7%
3%
39%
AAA
38
4%
ภ5 8
%
(. + /1 [(& )
Government
%
13%
27 % ( ภ, - - )
( ภ, --+(-)
39% Household and Non-profit
32
%
Depository Corporation
7 % )-Z26% 18 %
%
' : ThaiBMA (30 ภ- - 2554)
2550-2554
38
Insurance and % Other Corporation
( ภ, + ) )
7 . 34
' : ThaiBMA (22 ? 5 ภ- 2554)
5%
7 .
' : 7 . (30 ภ- - 2554)
ภ:(
FY 2550-2553
O ภ7 ภภ%
7 30
• )+ ATM f )
ภ+! ภ6 I D 10 I • * . Portfolio $ $ ภ5.7 D 6.3 I
7 . (- 4 (FRB)
• )+ % !" Float ` Fixed ภ5% D 13% • ! + # $ ! BIBOR
(( -Z: 0
• & %ภ. ! ; -!" * Q () P ภŕ¸
+ • # ภ, %&, -!" ; ภ. % F,%
FY 2011
l TT ) - - (( (ภ-% ')
7 50 7 ) )- jk( 7 &'( --+(- C
FY 2012
Amortized Bond Bond Switching & Consolidation
, 7 V-) Z.
' PD
â&#x20AC;˘ ; %ภ. " )+ = ภ% *) " / " ภ. â&#x20AC;˘ P+! .ภ%, Benchmark Bond â&#x20AC;˘ , < ภ, )= + * . Portfolio â&#x20AC;˘ D ) 4 ภ)
ภ% F,% - 50 I ( ! ภ% ภK L %) ; ) â&#x20AC;˘ , < UV ( â&#x20AC;˘ )+$" + ภภ%, P ! ภâ&#x20AC;˘ D ; ภEmerging Asia Economies )
ภILB â&#x20AC;˘ " % )= ภ'* 1,000 , â&#x20AC;˘ + '* P % I â&#x20AC;˘ + '* Q! $ *) ATM â&#x20AC;˘ â&#x20AC;˘ â&#x20AC;˘ â&#x20AC;˘
$ *) +* ŕ¸
+ . = %, $ ภMega Project ;,, PPP -= $* ภ! $ ,ภ= . *) ! +" % ภ$ %
%&, ; %ภ. + %,
< ภ. ; , % ŕ¸
< P ! + F # )+" $ $ !
.! + = " .! ) $ ! ) )+ (
ภ( , ภ1 &'(ภV% 7 . (ภ.)
Baht Bond
CGIF (Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility)
4
% &'( ) % O t5:( ภ7 Benchmark O ภ7 ภภ%
Popular Benchmark Bond: % F,% Benchmark .! . 5 I + ภ'* D % %, ) 1 ($ D 25% ภ'* % + )
!" : % Share of Market Trading Volume
Turnover Ratio: % F,%
.! . 5 I ! ภ"! $! f ) ) 0.7 - 1.0
28%
27% 20%
5
20%
3.9 3.1
1.7
2.4
2.2
7% FY 51 FY08
FY 52 FY09
FY 53 FY10
FYFY11 54
Demand Concentration: 80 ภ'* % F,%
%&,
ภ.ภ%" ! 10 % %,; ŕ¸
FY07 FY 50
FY08 FY 51
FY09 FY 52
FY10 FY 53 FY11 FY 54
Well Developed Benchmark Bond Pays Off: %&, + . " % F,%
Benchmark P $ ภ$ ภ%,
!" : % Share of Market Trading Volume
+3.2 bps +1.4 bps
+1.2 bps
70%
383,269 .
76%
80%
223,363 .
78%
440,826 .
84%
409,900 .
FY 50 FY07
-0.4 bps FY07 FY 50
FY08 FY 51
FY09 FY 52
FY10 FY 53
FY11 FY 54
FYFY51 51
FY 52 FY52
FYFY53 53
FY 54 FY54
&'( 0::( 7 ) )- jk( (Inflation Linked Bond: ILB) (14 ภ.%. 2554) O ภ7 ภภ%
1 .
Capital Indexed Bond (%, % ( )
ภ,
,+ ( -,:( 7
10
40,000
)O (ภ-
,ภ6 &(
) ( (
Headline CPI
Indexation Lag
3 &(
Index Ratio
CPIt /CPI0
( (ภ-. 5
1.2 %
7 ภ)O %&
Bullet
ภ+(0 ภ((ภ(-+ +( &('
ภ5 [ ภ+
15,000 MB
[ ŕ¸
20,000 MB
5,000 MB
--+(-
ภ5( w& ( : 1.4 +
+ * % +( :( 7 ) )- jk( FY 2555 : ./ ภ((ภILB (-+ +( &'( - 7 ภ1 ( ,ภ0 ) FY 2012 : ' -( % % :( ILB ,+ ( -, ( ภ60,000 '( + * % +( ภILB ./ +(0 : ((ภILB ,+ ( -,(&' (3- 5- 7 )
' :( PD
FY 2012 : ภC + ภ1 ILB . ŕ¸
./ +(0 : ภC + ภ)& (: - ILB ( ./ +(0 : ( firm bid / ask spreads (
5
13
z 7 &'( --+(- C (Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers) 29 .%. 54 O ภ7 ภภ%
ภ. ภŕ¸
ภ!"#! $ ภ#! !%ภ# & ' &( ! ) %*+ ,# )- ภ# ' .- ภ' /) - ภ01 , 2 / /% . .( # , 3 , 2 / 4 ,1)
, "56 ( 1 Retail Bond @ ATM for Micro Savers)
1) #', "5! ) /ภ/ . ภ, 2 / ! , M! ) # 3 ภภ1 1. 01 ' /) - , 1,000 ! . ภภ/ 10,000 ! 2. ภ.- ) - / ! S . ภภ/ 5 3. ภ, ) U ! ภ.- 1) ATM . ภภ/ .- ' ' 2 / ! . / . , 2 / 4 ,1)
, "56 ' &( # .- # ภ! ! ) ภ# ' / & ภภ$ . '
' , 2 / 4 ! !
! ) &( ภ.- , 2 / V / ATM &1 $ ! ) 1 ' ภ, 3 , 2 / 4 ,1)
, "5 ' $ Electronics ! )# , 2 / . ภ"(ภ5 ภ.-
, 2 / ,1)
, "5 / M X/ ( ! ) 2) ! )! - ภ# 5* M ( ! ) 3) ! , 2 / ! )# ภ. U U U U . / . ) ภY ' ภ# !2 + , -- ภภภ--
Fact & Figures &'( 0::( â&#x20AC;&#x153; 7 &'( --+(- Câ&#x20AC;? ( -, : 3 I ( (ภ- : 3.75 ! I )& (: ' O : 1,000 , )& (: 1 : 1,000,000 , [ '5O + - : ATM ; $ <
< F $ ภ. P ภ5+ - (ภ- : ! I 2 " 5O + - : 29 $+ â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 30 F% " $+ 2555 6
13
% ( ก , 5 5O . . 2551 - 55 (. + * ก} -) O ก 7 ก ก %
800,000
80,000
600,000
233,023
48,162 49,999
260,000
67,740
107,099
400,000
58,940 69,731 73,178 69,440 35,731 10,000 56,582
200,000
441,061
25,000
39,836 52,000 400,000
232,575 165,000
200,666
0
2551
2552
2553
2554
2555F
2551 2552 (- (-
2553 2554 (- (-
2555F (-
. :
,
165,000
62%
441,061
64%
232,575
35%
200,666
47%
400,000
54%
. V%
56,582
21%
67,740
10%
25,000
4%
52,000
12%
. .ก. FIDF 1
10,000
4%
49,999
7%
69,440
11%
39,836
9%
107,099
14%
. .ก. FIDF 3
35,731
13%
48,162
7%
69,731
11%
73,178
17%
233,023
31%
80,000
12%
260,000
40%
58,940
14%
By source
. .ก. 52 (TKK) % ( ก , 5
267,313
100% 686,962
100%
656,746
100% 424,620
100%
740,122
100%
7
13
ภ, 5O . . 2551 - 2555 (. + * % &(' &() O ภ7 ภภ%
800,000
ภ100,000 80,000
% ( ภ, 5
600,000
30,000
50,000
22,000
65,000 260,000
134,000
400,000
50,693
125,122 47,000 61,171 3
25,950
200,000
58,940
46,000 54,014 1,075
18,000
400,000
370,269 288,572
264,591
82,230
71,309 40,000
223,363
00 ภ. - (T-bill &( Bank Loan) &'(150,000 % '- . % &'( &( +P
By product
124,254
2551
2552
7 (LB) 7 (( -Z (SB) l TT ) (P/N) l % ((ภ+ (T-bill) (+) 7 ( (ภ- (- (FRB) ภ1 5 ภ7 % )-Z (Bank Loan) (+) 7 (( -Z: 0 (SB_UP)
223,363 18,000 25,950 0
% ( ภ, 5
267,313
2552 (-
84% 7% 10% 0%
370,269
54%
50,693 134,000 22,000 30,000 80,000
7% 20% 3% 4% 12%
686,962
288,572 3 61,171 0 47,000 260,000
82,230 124,254
267,313
100%
686,962
2555F 2554 (-
33% 0% 7% 0% 5% 30%
656,746
7 (( -Z: 0 (SB_UP) 7 (LB) 7 ) )- jk( (ILB) l TT ) ( .% ' (Fixed P/N) Amortized Bond ภ,
2554 2553
(-
100%
40,000
30,000
34,600
2553
2551
60,000
863,230
264,591 1,075 54,014 0 46,000 58,940
2555F (-
46% 0% 9% 0% 8% 10%
424,620 10% 14%
100%
71,309 40,000 34,600
570,529
(-
400,000
46%
125,122 65,000 50,000
14% 7% 6%
100,000
11%
740,122 12% 7% 6%
100%
60,000 40,000 30,000
870,122
7% 5% 3%
100%
8
10 ภภ2555 ( ภ1 - 7) !" ภ! # !" ภ$ % & #! ' ()
1
2
3
4
5
-ภภภ/1ภ:
:( .
ภ)&'( V-
&'( ( AEC 2015
} 1 ภ} -
, * C
/ * Â&#x192;Z ŕ¸
6
7
( % - ภC -
% . %, % ( /1 ,
2555
5.1 Inflation-Linked Bond ( ./7 ./TBMA/PD) 7.1 - ภ,%%
KPI : Launched/Liquidity
2555
5.2 Benchmark Bond 3 ( ./7 .)
2.1 CGIF ( ./ภ. . ./ ภ/TBMA/PD) KPI : 1 Pilot Project
5.3 Amortized Bond ( .) 2555
2555
- Electronic & Internet ( .)
2555
- Post Office ( .)
2556
Retail Bond
5.5 , ภภÂ&#x192;Z Municipal Bond ( ./( .)
4.2 * C SBT :( C ŕ¸
2555
5.6 ( Retail Bond ( ./ ภ/TBMA/PD)
( ภ/ %./% *./ภ. . ./ ./TBMA) 2554 - 2558
9
: ภ56 6ภ6%76$ ! # ) 89 $ !% . ': . ) TBMA (( 8 5 ภ. . 54)
Scriptless
KPI : Launched/Liquidity
4.1 -ภ* C 0 '% 5 ภCapital Gain :( ภ, --+(- ' Resident . Non-Resident
!% . can do/ cannot lead
( ./ %./7 ../ ภ. . ../ ./TBMA)
2555
5.4 Retail Bond : ATM ( .)
KPI : Execution Rate 25%
!% . can do/ can lead
2554 - 2558
2554
2.2 NR ((ภBaht Bond ( ./7 ./ภ. . .)
( ภ++)
2555
2556
5.7 Securitization O Infrastructure mortgage ( ภ/7 ./ภ. . ./TBMA) 2554 - 2558 5.8 % 1 Issuer . Investor ( ภ/7 ./ภ. . ./TBMA)
2554 - 2558
10 ภภ2555 ( ภ8 - 10) !" ภ! # !" ภ$ % & #! ' ()
!% . can do/ can lead 8
9
10
ภภ%( Z ) '
C ภ5 : - . % Z ( 'O
!% . can do/ cannot lead
8.1 . ŕ¸
8.2 * % +( (
8.1.1 /1 % ภ(Primary Dealers : PD) 8.1.2 Bond Switching 8.1.3 Bond Consolidation
8.2.1 Private repo and Short sell 8.2.2 ' issue size :( SOE V - ) Re-open 8.2.3 /+( % - ภÂ&#x192;Z NR , 0 ภ:D 8.2.4 Bond Futures and Interest rate future 8.2.5 DภC . ภ' * % +( ( O (ภ)
2555 - 2556
* % (ภ) 8.1.4 * C &'( %+ ) 5+ -((ภ.ภ+/1 ((ภ- +) ' % 8.1.5 ภ((ภCover Bond, Guarantee Bond 8.1.6 DภC . ภ5 Monoline 8.1.7 % 1 ภ((ภ, ภ1 2554 - 2558 8.1.8 , ภภ, 10
( ./ %./ ภ/ % ./7 ./ ภ. . ./ ./TBMA)
8.3 + --+(8.3.1 Bond Mart/ , Website/ )&'( website 7 . 8.3.2 ( % 1 2554 - 2558 (7 ./ภ. . ./ ./TBMA)
2554 - 2556 ( % . /7 . /ภ. . ./TBMA)
: ภ56 6ภ6%76$ ! # ) 89 $ !% . ': . ) TBMA (( 8 5 ภ. . 54)
8.4 V% & 8.4.1 OTC ETP 8.4.2 TFIIC 8.4.3 . Â&#x201E; ( 7, ŕ¸
, ภ1 8.4.4 ภ, '.:t .ภ+ ( (, %ภ, :( ภ( , . ภ, [ . / ภภ( , ' , , ภ1 ) 8.4.5 7 ภ)O % . + ( * % 2554 - 2558 ( ./ %./7 ./ภ. . ./ ./TBMA)
&(( ) ภ7 &'(ภ(-+ - ' -&
! , + )+ +P : ) %ภภp q % Fภ.
02 265 8050 ! 5100
juk@mof.go.th
Q = " ภ= %ภ, F s
= %ภ%t 02 271 7999 ! 5812, 5806, 5802