PDMO Annual Market Dialogue FY2017 8th September, 2016 Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand
Bond Market Development Bureau 1 Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
เรื่องเพื่อหารือ / รับฟังความคิดเห็น 1. ผลการออกตราสารหนี้รัฐบาล ประจาปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ. 2559 2. ผลการการแลกเปลี่ยนพันธบัตรรัฐบาลรุ่น LB176A ในปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ. 2559 3. แผนการระดมทุนและแผนการดาเนินงานในปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ. 2560 4. แผนการลงทุนและความก้าวหน้าในการดาเนินโครงการโครงสร้างพื้นฐาน
1. ผลการออกตราสารหนี้รัฐบาล ประจาปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ. 2559 • รายงานผลการออกตั๋วเงินคลังในปีงบประมาณ • รายงานผลการออกพันธบัตรรัฐบาล Benchmark
FY2016
Low Cost of Funding High Volume of Short-term Demand
T-Bill Auction Result
THB Mil.
Basis Points
75,000
10.00
Q1
60,000
Q3
Q2
Q4 7.50
45,000
5.00 30,000 2.50
15,000
2.4
T-1= 00
0.4 0.2 0.1
-0.4 -1.2
-15,000
-0.9
-2.4
-30,000
1.3
0.9
0.7 -0.6 -0.8
2.0
-2.1
0.2
0.00.1 -0.2 -0.6 -1.0
-2.5
-1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -3.2
-2.6
-3.1
-60,000
-1.5 -1.7
-1.5 -1.6
-2.5 -3.0
-1.8 -2.3
0.1
-0.1 -0.5
-1.4
-1.5 -2.6
-2.50
-2.2 -2.4
-3.8 -4.4
-45,000
0.00
0.6 0.3
-5.5
-4.3
-4.4 -5.0
-4.9 -5.2 -5.4
-5.00 -4.8
-5.0 -5.4
-7.50
T-bill 3 month T-bill 6 months R-bill 3/6 months
T-bill (Allocated Amount) Participated Amount (Excess Demand) -8.8 Spread [AAY-Yield(T-1)]
-8.4
-75,000
-10.00 Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
4
FY2016-Present GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Auction Schedule Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs) Inflation-linked Bond Amortized Bond
Participated Amount (Excess Demand) Spread [AAY-Yield (T-1)]
THB Mil.
Basis Points
120,000 100,000
96,320
30
FY2016
25
81,300
80,000 64,588
60,000 40,000 20,000
20
73,730 66,409
15
55,899 11.2
37,355 29,850
28,602 24,420 22,472 26,905 23,707 21,525 16,761 19,829 15,407 15,895
24,915
-20,000
10
26,110
25,69324,270 21,700
7.0 16,807 30,000 18,534 17,923 18,155 16,764 17,409 17,890 13,893 4.6 24,000 4.3 3,2708,200 5 11,920 20,436 10,230 2.9 16,000 16,000 15,000 1.9 16,000 13,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 9,802 9,320 7,730 0.2 0.00 -1.2 -1.5 2,600 -2.1 -2.4 -2.7 -3.2
16,190 23,779 4.4 14,330
13,000 13,000 11,0009,00013,000 11,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 9,000 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -2.2 -1.9 -1.9 -2.6 -4.0 -5.2
T-1= 0 0
33,860
-5.8
-6.4 -6.2
-5
-6.1
-7.8 -9.4
-40,000
-10
-11.2
-60,000
-15 -16.5
-20
-19.9
-100,000
-25
31-Aug-2016
24-Aug-2016
10-Aug-2016
27-Jul-2016
20-Jul-2016
13-Jul-2016
6-Jul-2016
29-Jun-2016
22-Jun-2016
15-Jun-2016
15-Jun-2016
8-Jun-2016
18-May-2016
27-Apr-2016
20-Apr-2016
5-Apr-2016
5-Apr-2016
30-Mar-2016
16-Mar-2016
9-Mar-2016
2-Mar-2016
17-Feb-2016
10-Feb-2016
27-Jan-2016
20-Jan-2016
13-Jan-2016
6-Jan-2016
23-Dec-2015
8-Dec-2015
2-Dec-2015
25-Nov-2015
18-Nov-2015
11-Nov-2015
28-Oct-2015
21-Oct-2015
-25.1
21-Oct-2015
-120,000
-17.7
-18.8
-80,000
-30
5
FY2016 – Present GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Tenor THB Mil.
100,000
Benchmark Bond 5 – 10yr 5-Yr
10-Yr
Benchmark Bond 15 – 50yr 15-Yr
20-Yr
30-Yr
bps
50-Yr
40
75,000
30
50,000
20
25,000
10
T-1= 00
0
-25,000
-10
-50,000
-20
-75,000
-30
-100,000
-40 Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
Max. (bps) Min. (bps) Average Accepted Yield
6
เปรียบเทียบวงเงินการออกพันธบัตร Benchmark ในปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ. 2558 และ 2559 Benchmark FY2015
FY2016
Tenors
%Chang Amounts (MB.)
5 Yrs. 10 Yrs. 15 Yrs. 20 Yrs. 30 Yrs. 50 Yrs. Amortize 25 Yrs. Total
155,558 73,198 73,476 49,255 36,760 53,970 442,217
Amounts (MB.)
168,827 83,000 82,000 53,830 56,532 62,000 506,189
9% 13% 12% N.A.
15% 69% N.A.
14%
7
2. ผลการการแลกเปลี่ยนพันธบัตรรัฐบาลรุ่น LB176A ในปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ. 2559 • รายงานผลการแลกเปลี่ยนพันธบัตร สาหรับพันธบัตรรัฐบาล รุ่น LB176A
ผลการแลกเปลี่ยนพันธบัตร สาหรับพันธบัตรรัฐบาลรุ่น LB176A
• ความเสี่ยงลดลง • หนี้ที่แลกมีอายุยาวขึ้น • เพิ่มสภาพคล่อง
=
: 218,683 ลบ. : จาก 9 เดือน : ออกพันธบัตรใหม่
162,000 ลบ. 20 ปี 9 เดือน 56,682 ลบ.
ล้านบาท
ยอดคงค้างพันธบัตรรัฐบาลหลังจากการทาธุรกรรมแลกเปลี่ยนพันธบัตร (Bond Switching)
350000
Source Bond Destination Bonds Switched Amount
ชื่อของรุ่นพันธบัตร
อายุคงเหลือ
วงเงินพันธบัตรออกใหม่ (ลบ.)
ร้อยละ
LB206A LB226A LB26DA LBA37DA LB666A รวม
3 ปี 10 เดือน 5 ปี 10 เดือน 10 ปี 4 เดือน 21 ปี 4 เดือน 49 ปี 10 เดือน
11,000 9,000 14,182 7,000 15,500 56,682
19.4 15.9 25 12.4 27.3 100
300000
LB176A
250000
-56,682 ลบ.
200000
150000
100000
50000
9
LB666A
LB616A
LB466A
LB446A
LB416A
LB406A
LB396A
LB383A
LBA37DA
LB366A
LB326A
LB316A
LB296A
ILB283A LB283A
LB27DA
LB267A LB26DA
LB25DA
LB244A LB24DA
LB233A LB236A
LB226A LB22NA
LB213A LB214A ILB217A LB21DA
LB206A
LB193A LB196A LB198A LB19DA
LB183A LB183B LB191A
LB175A LB176A LB17OA
LB16NA LB171A
0
Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds Issuance by Bond Types THB Mil.
Saving Bonds
Amortizing Bonds
Inflation-Linked
Long-term (>10 yr)
Medium-term (5-10 yr)
Short-term (<5 yr)
* Include Debt Switching
700,000 7,367
600,000
20,141
69,073
54,000
500,000
31,577 82,234
3,814
7,000 89,379
65,000
50,872 38,000
29,338
40,000
400,000
136,641
134,000
152,861
61,000
269,862 140,733
22,730 148,900
300,000
151,471 221,110
200,000
223,850 266,139
259,826 215,000
274,999
100,000
202,000 98,850
0
47,000
46,000
2010
2011
96,000 51,605
2012
2013
2014
2015
11,000
2016 10
The Average Maturity of Thai Government Bonds Issuance 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
9 years and 4 months
11 years and 8 months
11 years and 2 months
14 years and 10 months
16 years and 10 months
14 years and 6 months
15 years and 10 months 11
Average Maturity in year of the debt stock by country Year 16
14
12
9.58
10
8
6
4
2
0 US
Italy
Germany
Australia
Korea
Note : Korea As of 20 US Italy Germany Australia Canda France UK As of 2015 Thailand As of Jan 2016 Japan As of May 2016
Canada
France
Japan
Thailand
UK
Source : Debt Management Office UK and OECD
12
Linking CGIF & BAHT BOND to the Development of Bond Market Total Outstanding 10,457,440 THB Mil.
CGIF
(As of 7th Sep, 2016 )
Inaugural (Noble, Hong Kong)
Baht Bond (Foreign Issuers Bond)
BAHT BOND
0.65%
THB
67,499 Mil.
THB 2,850 Mil.
Corp Bond
25%
SOEs Bond
8%
2013 2014 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 201 2017 201 2018201 20192020 2020
111111 Natural Hedging
Inv’t Grade
BOT Bond
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MHBK
CABEI
28%
KEXIM
WOORI EDLGEN
Targeted Industry
GOVT Bond 38%
Why now?
MOFL
What next? Broadening Issuer Base : AEC Becoming bond market leader of the region
Entering ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)
(PDDF.)
13
BAHT BOND ISSUERS FOR 2016
1/2559 (1 Jan 2016 - 30 Sep 2016)
2/2559
Malayan Banking Berhad (Maybank) Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI)
Ministry of Finance, Lao PDR (MOFL)
(1 May 2016 - 31 Jan 2017)
3/2559 (1 Sep 2016 - 31 May 2017)
Trina Solar (Singapore) Science & Technology PTE. LTD. (Trina Solar (Singapore)) KNM Group Berhad (KNM Group)
14
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Issuance Period 9 months (Jan – Sep)
CONSIDERATION
Issuance Period 9 months (Sep – May) SUBMISSION
CONSIDERATION
Issuance Period 9 months (May – Jan) SUBMISSION
CONSIDERATION
Submission period: 3 Round per year Issuance period: 9 month
Jan
CONSIDERATION
Dec
SUBMISSION
Nov SUBMISSION
Baht Bond SUBMISSION PERIOD
Issuance Period 9 months (Jan – Sep)
15
3. แผนการระดมทุนและแผนการดาเนินงานในปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ. 2560 • แผนการออกตั๋วเงินคลัง ปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ. 2560 • แผนการออกพันธบัตรรัฐบาล ปีงบประมาณ พ.ศ. 2560
2016 - 2022
Government Funding Needs
700 - 950 THB Bil. per Year
957,xxx 86MB
2,XXXMB
New Borrowing 350 - 450 THB Bil.
Per year
Insurance Decree
3XXMB
4,XXXMB 38,XXXMB 59,XXXMB 38,XXXMB
THB mil.
5x,xxxMB
Substitution for foreign currency bond On-Lending
390,000
Deficit Bill 58,940
(2016-2022) 200,666
344,084
300,000
250,000
250,000
390,000
390,000
390,000
390,000
390,000
GOVT 140,192
Bond Switching
50,000
Rollover 350 - 500 THB Bil.
Per year (2016-2022)
52,000
-0-
149,209
231,000
307,945
252,898
2xx,xxx
177,545
453,367
114,286
112,708
286,104
3xx,xxx
102,059
101,800
37,900
109,000
-0-
FY2017F FY2017
FY2018F
FY2019F
FY2020F
FY2021F
FY2022F
FIDF 113,014
340,122
191,095
129,124
59,374
104,236
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015F
FY2016
17
Government Bond Supply Keep Increasing Since 2009 Government Fund Raising Strategy
30%
Bond 70%
Bank Loan T-bill P/N
Benchmark Bond Savings Bond Others
18
FY 2017
GOVT Fund Raising Plan Insurance Decree
440,XXX MB
New Borrowing
On-Lending
Roll Over 517,XXX MB
50,xxx
Promissory Notes R-Bill, And Others
Savings Bond Rollover SOEs Debt
Rollover Govt Debt
15,xxx
189,xxx
Loan Bond 5-10-15-20-30-50 yrs
Rollover FIDF Debt By Bills
Remark :
-Tentative-
5x
390,xxx
Deficit
957,xxx MB
313,xxx
550,xxx
By Instruments
1. Exclude external funding for both new borrowing and rollover debt with amount of 71,xxx 2. Exclude T-Bill rollover debt
19
FY 2017
T-Bills Plan 3 & 6 months T-bill : Issue on demand
THB Mil. 30,000
Q1
25,000
Q2
Q4
Q3
20,000
10,000
5,000
Amount xx,xxx
15,000
1 month T-bill : Rollover
0 Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
20
ALL FY2017
Benchmark Bond is approximately 550 Bil.
60% of FY2017 Funding Needs 957 Bil.
THB Mil.
500,000 Benchmark Bond Tenors
400,000
Symbol
Issuance Size
5-yrs
LB226A
140,000 – 160,000
10-yrs
LB26DA
90,000 – 100,000
15-yrs
LB316A
70,000 – 80,000
20-yrs
LB366A
60,000 – 70,000
30-yrs
LB466A
60,000 – 70,000
50-yrs
LB666A
80,000 – 90,000
Total Benchmark Bonds
Total
550,xxxMil.
550,xxx MB
300,000
Top-up
5
15 20
Top-up
Top-up
10
30
TTM
1
2
3
4
5
5
6
7
8 9 10 11
10
12
13 14 15 16 17-18 19-20 21 22 23 24 25 26-27 28 29 30
15
20
30
31-39
40
41-44
45
21 45-49
LB666A LB666A
LB616A
LB466A LB466A
LB446A
LBA37DA LB383A LB396A LB406A LB416A
LB366A LB366A
ILB353A
LB316A LB316A LB326A
0
LB16NA LB171A LB175A LB176A LB17OA LB183A LB183B LB191A LB193A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB206A LB213A LB214A ILB217A LB21DA LB226A LB226A LB22NA LB233A LB236A LB244A LB24DA LB25DA LB267A LB26DA LB26DA LB27DA ILB283A LB283A LB296A
Top-up
100,000
Top-up
50
Top-up
200,000
50 50
Benchmark Bond Auction Plan in FY2017
Tenors
Symbol
Coupon
Auction Size
Frequency
Total Issuance
5
LB226A
1.875%
20,000 – 30,000
5-6
140,000 – 160,000
10
LB26DA 2.125%
18,000 – 20,000
5-6
90,000 – 100,000
15
LB316A
3.65%
14,000 - 16,000
5-6
70,000 – 80,000
20
LB366A
3.40%
11,000 – 13,000
5-6
60,000 – 70,000
30
LB466A
2.875%
11,000 – 13,000
5-6
60,000 – 70,000
50
LB666A
4.00%
14,000 – 16,000
5-6
80,000 – 90,000
Remark: Including Greenshoe Option for 5-yr Benchmark Bond
22
4. แผนการลงทุนและความก้าวหน้าในการดาเนินโครงการโครงสร้างพืน้ ฐาน
Financing Infrastructure Investment Kingdom of Thailand
Jindarat Viriyataveekul Executive Director of the Public Infrastructure Project Financing Bureau Public Debt management Office, Ministry of Finance, Thailand MARKET DIALOUGE 8 September 2016
Content Current State of Thailand Transportation Infrastructure Transport Infrastructure Development Master Plan
2015-2022 Financing Transportation Investment
25
Current Situation: Public Debt VS Thailand Competitiveness Thailand’s Public debt to GDP stood at moderate level compare to other countries
หมายเหตุ : ข้อมูล ณ เมษายน 2559
Thailand Global competitiveness 2016 Infrastructure
Source: World Economic Forum (2016)
Value Rank/140
26
Current State of Transportation Infrastructure in Thailand
Source : MOT, Nov 2015
Current
Master Plan
Financing
27
Current State of Transportation Infrastructure in Thailand Bangkok Mass Rapid Transit
Bangyai – Bangsue 23 km.
Total 123 km.
Bangsue – Hualumpong 20.8 km.
Bangsue - Talingchan 15 km. Airport Rail Link 28 km.
Morchit-OnnuchNational StadiumTaksin bridge 24 km.
Taksin bridge-Bangwha 7.5 km.
Current
Onnuch-Barring 5.25 km.
Master Plan
Source : MOT, Nov 2015
Financing
28
Master Plan 2015-22 : Thailand Transport Infrastructure Development Total of 112.8 Bil. USD (equiv. 3.3 Tril. Baht) * Source: MOT June 2015
Inter-city Rail Network
Highway Network
• Upgrade rail infrastructure and overall system
• Develop 4 lane-road networks linking Thailand’s key economic regions and borders areas
• Build double-track in 6 main rails with their extension to respective borders
• Construct new motor ways • Develop facilities along the main roads such as container yards
Action Plan 2015-16
Public Transportation Network in Bangkok & Metropolitan • Extend mass transit railway system in Bangkok and vicinity • Improve quality of service and safety of mass transit bus as well as to enhance its environment standard
Maritime
Action plan 2016 mln baht
3,895 mln baht
Mode Meter gauge 118,026 mln baht
1,796,386
Air Transport
51,607 mln baht
Current
Maritime Transport Development
• Enhance airport capacity to be the regional center of air transportation
• Improve seaport on both Thai gulf and Andaman sea
• Establish the aviation industrial estates
: Bidding of 20 Projects
Total of 60 Bil. USD (equiv. 1.796 Tril. Baht) Inter-city network 160,420 mln baht
Air Transport Capacity Enhancement
Master Plan
Borrowing
PPPs
SOEs
59%
3.9
7%
13.2
22%
Motorway
5.3
9%
Airport
1.7
3%
Maritime Transport
0.1
0%
59.8
100%
MRT
Mass Rapid Transit 396,614 mln baht
Budget
35.5
RAIL - Standard Gauge RAIL - Meter Gauge
Standard gauge 1,065,824 mln baht
Sources of Fund
$Bil.
Total
Financing
29
Dual Track : 1 m. gauge 5 routes
Dual Track: 1.435 m Standard gauge 4 Routes
Construction process
Kongkaeng
1 Dual-track routes from Jira rd. to Kongkaeng Approx. 185 Km. Investment budget 26,004 mil baht Progress 1.9% (expected to finish in May 2019)
Paknampho
Bidding process
Lopburi
3
Jira
Nakhonpathom
Preparation for cabinet approval 3 Dual-track routes from Mapkabao to Jira Approx. 132 Km. Investment budget 26,004 mil baht (expected to finish in November 2019) 4 Dual-track routes from Nakhonpathom to Huahin Approx. 165 Km. Investment budget 20,036 mil baht (expected to finish in December 2019) 5 Dual-track routes from Lopburi to Paknampho Approx. 148 Km. Investment budget 24,840 mil baht (expected to finish in December 2020) Current
1 Mapkabao
5
2 Dual-track routes from Prachuap Khiri Khan to Chumphon Approx. 167 Km. Investment budget 17,249 mil baht. (expected to sign contract in October 2019)
Air transportation and maritime transport development
Public Transportation Network in Bangkok & Metropolitan 5 routes
Highway Network 3 routes
Master Plan
4 HuaHin Prachuap Khiri Khan 2
Chumphon
Financing 30
3
Dual Track : 1 m. gauge 5 routes
Dual Track: 1.435 m Standard gauge 4 Routes
Highway Network 3 routes
Public Transportation Network in Bangkok & Metropolitan 5 routes
Air transportation and maritime transport development
EIA Approval and Preparation for PPP approval Dual- track High speed train from Bangkok to Huahin Approx. 211 Km. Investment budget 94,673 mil baht. (expected to propose to PPP committee in October 2016) 2 Dual- track High speed train from Bangkok to Rayong Approx. 193.5 Km. Investment budget 152,528 mil baht. (expected to propose to PPP committee in October 2016) 1
4 3
Feasibility study The joint railway cooperation between Thailand and China from Bangkok- Kaengkhoi- Nongkai and Kaenkhoi â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Maptaphut 4 The joint railway cooperation between Thailand and Japan from Bangkok â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Changmai 3
1 2 2
4
Current
Master Plan
Financing
Dual Track : 1 m. gauge 5 routes
Dual Track: 1.435 m Standard gauge 4 Routes
Highway Network 3 routes
Air transportation and maritime transport development
Public Transportation Network in Bangkok & Metropolitan 5 routes
Construction process Motorway from Pattaya to Maptaphut Approx. 32 Km. Investment budget 17,819 mil baht. Progress 1.3% (expected to finish in 2019)
Bidding process: Will be constructed in Sep â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Dec 2016) Motorway from Bangpain to Nakonratchasrima Approx. 196 Km. Investment budget 76,600 mil baht. Motorway from Bangyai to Kanchanaburi Approx. 96 Km. Investment budget 49,120 mil baht.
Bangpain Nakonratchasrima
Bangyai Kanchanaburi
Pattaya to Maptaphut
6
Current
Master Plan
Financing
Dual Track : 1 m. gauge 5 routes
Dual Track: 1.435 m Standard gauge 4 Routes
Highway Network 3 routes
Public Transportation Network in Bangkok & Metropolitan 5 routes
Air transportation and maritime transport development
Bidding process 1 Pink Line (Kaerai – Minburi) - Propose the Approx. 34.5 Km. selection to SEPO Investment budget 56,691 mil baht. in March 2017 2 Yellow Line (Ladprao – Sumrong) - Expected to sign contract in April Approx. 30.1 Km. 2017 Investment budget 54,644 mil baht. 3 Orange Line (Thai Cultural Center - Minburi) Approx. 21.2 km. Investment budget 92,532 mil baht. Expected to sign contract in May 2017 Cabinet Approved 4 Light red Line (Bangsue – Phayathai – Makkasan Huamark) and Dark red Line (Bangsue – Hualumpong) Approx. 25.9 Km Investment Budget 44,157 Mil baht. Proposing to Cabinet Approved 5 Purple Line (Taopoon – Ratburana) Approx. 23.6 Km Investment Budget 131,004 Mil baht. EIA study is also in the approval process. 5
Current
Master Plan
Financing
Dual Track : 1 m. gauge 5 routes
Dual Track: 1.435 m Standard gauge 4 Routes
Highway Network 3 routes
Public Transportation Network in Bangkok & Metropolitan 5 routes
Air transportation and maritime transport development
Construction Process
The Coastal port (Port A) at Laem Chabang Port Investment budget 1,819.29 mil baht. Progress 13.98% (expected to finish in November 2017)
The container depot development at Laem Chabang port phase I Investment budget 2,031 mil baht. Progress 0.09% (expected to finish in October 2017)
Bidding process The Suvarnabhumi airport development phase II Investment budget 50,322 mil baht. Got the 2 contractors from total 7 contracts (expected to finish in 2019)
7
Current
Master Plan
Financing
6,000
1.62%
1.58%invested Approx. 2006-2015 : Thailand 1.51% $6 4,000 Billion/Year (1.8% of GDP) in Transport Sector
5,000
1.08%
Million $
9,000.00
0.85%
3,000
8,000.00 7,000.00
1.00%
2,000 1.90%
2.01%
1,000
5,000.00
1.08%
4,000.00
0.99%
1.94%
2006 0.85%
2007
2008 0.85%
0.94%
2,000.00
2.50%
2007
2.00%
1.64% 1.47%
2008
2009
2010
2011
6. Motorway Fund 5. Road maintenance project
1.50%
0.85%
2.00%
1.65%
0.62%
2006
2.50%
0.60% 1.64%
1.54%
3,000.00
1,000.00
0.85%
%
2.14% 1.99%
1.76%
6,000.00
0.91%
1.44%
1.47%
2009
0.82%
20100.85% 2011
0.89%
1.50%
2012
1.00%
6. Motorway Fund 0.52% 5. Road maintenance project 0.50% 4. TKK - Ministry of Transport 3. Borrowing 2. SOE Revenue- Transportation Sector0.00% 2012 2013 2014 2015 1. Gov Budget -Transportation Sector Budget to GDP Total Transport Inv to GDP
4. TKK - Ministry of Transport 3. Borrowing
0.85%
1.00%
2. SOE Revenue- Transportation Sector 1. Gov Budget -Transportation Sector
0.52%
Budget to GDP Current 0.50%
Total Transport Inv to GDP
Master Plan
Source : Budget Bureau , MOT, NESDB, PDMO, SEPO
Financing
35
Financing Transport Investment Action Plan 2016 Borrowing remains major tool while PPPs increasingly becomes a prominent method
SOEs Revenue
3%
Toll Road Fund 1% Unit : $ Billion
Annual Budget PPPs 21%
12%
Government/ SOEs Borrowing 63%
Source of Fund Borrowing
2016
2017
2018 2019-2022
37.9
0.11
0.83
2.29
33.69
Budget
7.1
0.47
1.71
2.18
2.72
SOEs Rev.
1.9
0.06
0.51
0.80
0.49
12.6
-
0.42
0.61
11.53
0.5
0.07
0.13
0.14
0.13
59.8
0.70
4.60
6.02
48.66
PPPs Toll Road Fund
Total
Current
$bil
Master Plan
Financing
36
Infrastructure Financing Options Sources
Use
Limitations
projects with local currency return/expenditure
Limited resources
SOEâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Revenue
SOE projects with HIGH financial return
SOEâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Revenue does not meet its rapid demand of infrastructure investment
Borrowing/Bond/ Debenture
projects with foreign currency return/expenditure
Public Debt should not exceed the fiscal sustainability level at 60% of GDP to ensure stability and credibility
SOE Public Offering/ Privatization
projects with HIGH financial return (Financial Viable)
Needs mature Industry structure and public understanding
PPP
projects with HIGH financial return (Financial Viable)
Alternative source for infrastructure investment and increases private participation but may be restricted in certain subsectors
Brown Field Projects
Another solution to invest sustainably despite higher cost of capital and more complexity compared to plain debt financing
Budget
Infrastructure Fund
Public Debt/GDP
Fiscal Sustainability Current
Debt repayment/GDP
Master Plan
Financing
37
Sources of Fund: Government or SOEs? High Financially Viable : SOEs
Expressway
SOE Revenue/ Borrowing
Airport
Electricity
Project Finance
PPPs
Energy
Infrastructure Fund
Low Financially Viable with High Economic Return : Government
Rail & MRT
Budget
Current
Public Health
Road System
Government Borrowing
Master Plan
Education
PPPs
Financing
38
Funding Sources also depend on Purposes of Expenditure Metropolitan Mass Transit
Provincial Rail Network
Annual Budget
Land acquisition Consultants
Land acquisition Consultants
Land acquisition Consultants
Land acquisition Consultants Construction
Government Borrowing
Civil Works
Civil Works Signaling System
Civil Works
Civil Works (Large Projects)
SOE Revenue & Borrowing
Rolling Stock Signaling System
Financing Source/Sector
PPPs Infrastructure Funds
Rolling Stock
Current
Highways /Motorway
Rolling Stock Civil Works Fee Rolling Stock collection system Maintenance
Master Plan
Water Transport
Equipment and tools
Air Transport
Consultants Civil Works Equipment and tools
Financing
39
Public debt projection
within Sustainability framework (<60%)
- Projection -
Source : PDMO as of 22 July 2016
Current
Master Plan
Financing
40
Thank you Q/A Bond Market Development Bureau 41 Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance