KINGDOM OF THAILAND BOND MARKET FINANCING THAILAND’S FUTURE & CONNECTING ASEAN
Progress Update
» Committing to FY2017 Fund Raising Plan » GOVT Bond Auction Results » T-Bill Plan Q1/FY2017 » Bond Switching Transaction for LB176A in FY2016 Result
» GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q1/FY2017 » SOE Bond Auction Schedule Q1/FY2017 » PDMO Bond Calendar FY2017 Basic & Essentials
» Bond Market Development Strategy » Public Debt Outstanding and Its Composition » Total Domestic Public Debt » Bond Market Capitalization and Its Composition » Supporting Inclusive Growth Through ASEAN Bond Market Integration
»
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE MINISTRY OF FINANCE KINGDOM OF THAILAND
Quick Facts Public Debt Outstanding (as of July 2016)
5,958,103 THB Mil. (42.89 % of GDP)
14
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOVT Direct Debt Profile Dramatically (as of July 2016) » Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) 12yrs 1mth » Average Cost 3.82% » Well-Balanced Fixed : Floating Ratio 89 : 11 » Well-Distributed Maturity Profile 33:20:47 (TTM<5 : 6-10 : >10yrs)
15
Bond Market Capitalization (as of September 2016)
16
10,611,220 THB Mil. (75% of GDP)
GOVT Bond 38% of total Bond Market outstanding BOT Bond 28% SOEs Bond 8% Corp Bond 25% Baht Bond 1%
Baht Bond Outstanding and its Market Share (as of September 2016)
67,499 THB Mil. (1% of Bond Outstanding)
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond (as of September 2016) » Annual Capital Flow (YTD) 159,554 THB Mil. GOVT Bond : 38,434 THB Mil. BOT Bond :
» NR Holding in THB Bond GOVT Bond : BOT Bond : Others :
19 22
121,120 THB Mil.
732,436 THB Mil. (6.9% of Thai Bond Market Cap.) 592,966 THB Mil. (14.5% of GOVT Bond Outstanding) 138,591 THB Mil. (4.7% of BOT Bond Outstanding) 879 THB Mil.
Progress Update Total Fund Raising Plan FY2017
GOVT Bond Auction Results T-Bills Plan Q1/FY2017 Bond Switching Transaction for LB176A in FY2016 Result GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q1 /FY2017 SOE Bond Auction Schedule Q1/FY2017
PDMO Bond Calendar FY2017
1
2
2016 - 2022
Government Funding Needs
700 - 950 THB Bil. per Year
957,xxx 86MB
2,XXXMB
New Borrowing 350 - 450 THB Bil.
Per year
Insurance Decree
3XXMB
4,XXXMB 38,XXXMB 59,XXXMB 38,XXXMB
Infr
THB mil.
5x,xxxMB
Substitution for foreign currency bond On-Lending
390,000
Deficit Bill 58,940
(2016-2022) 200,666
344,084
300,000
250,000
250,000
390,000
390,000
390,000
390,000
390,000
114,286
112,708
GOVT 140,192
Bond Switching
50,000
Rollover 350 - 500 THB Bil.
Per year (2016-2022)
-0-
52,000
149,209
231,000
307,945
252,898
2xx,xxx
177,545
453,367
3xx,xxx
102,059
101,800
37,900
109,000
-0-
FY2017
FY2018F
FY2019F
FY2020F
FY2021F
FY2022F
286,104
FIDF FY 2017
113,014
340,122
191,095
129,124
59,374
104,236
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015F
FY2016
GOVT Fund Raising Plan Insurance Decree
440,XXX MB
New Borrowing
On-Lending
Roll Over 517,XXX MB
957,xxx MB -Tentative-
5x
50,xxx
390,xxx
Deficit
Promissory Notes R-Bill, And Others
Savings Bond Rollover SOEs Debt
Rollover Govt Debt
15,xxx
189,xxx
Loan Bond 5-10-15-20-30-50 yrs
Rollover FIDF Debt By Bills
Remark :
FY2017F
313,xxx
550,xxx
By Instruments
1. Exclude external funding for both new borrowing and rollover debt with amount of 71,xxx 2. Exclude T-Bill rollover debt
Government Bond Supply Keep Increasing Since 2009 THB mil.
Amount of Benchmark Bond to Actual Fund Raising (FY2009 – FY2017)
1,000,000 Others
Benchmark Bond
750,000
9% 1%
-11%
500,000
14%
37% 2% 10% 49% 250,000
-
ALL FY2017
Benchmark Bond is approximately 550 Bil.
60% of FY2017 Funding Needs 957 Bil.
THB Mil.
500,000 Benchmark Bond
400,000
Tenors
Symbol
Issuance Size
5-yrs
LB226A
140,000 – 160,000
Total
10-yrs
LB26DA
90,000 – 100,000
15-yrs
LB316A
70,000 – 80,000
20-yrs
LB366A
60,000 – 70,000
30-yrs
LB466A
60,000 – 70,000
50-yrs
LB666A
80,000 – 90,000
550,xxxMil.
Total Benchmark Bonds
550,xxx MB
300,000
Top-up
5
20
Top-up
Top-up
10
30
TTM
5
10
15
-
20
-
30
-
-
LB666A LB666A
LB616A
LB466A LB466A
LB446A
LBA37DA LB383A LB396A LB406A LB416A
LB366A LB366A
ILB353A
LB316A LB316A LB326A
0
LB16NA LB171A LB175A LB176A LB17OA LB183A LB183B LB191A LB193A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB206A LB213A LB214A ILB217A LB21DA LB226A LB226A LB22NA LB233A LB236A LB244A LB24DA LB25DA LB267A LB26DA LB26DA LB27DA ILB283A LB283A LB296A
Top-up
100,000
Top-up
50 15
Top-up
200,000
-
50
3
FY2016 – Present GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Auction Schedule THB Mil.
Q1
100,000
Q3
Q2
bps
Q4
40
75,000
30
50,000
20
25,000
10
T-1= 00
0
-25,000
-10
-50,000
-20
-75,000
-30
-100,000
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
-40
Sep-16
Max. (bps) Min. (bps) Average Accepted Yield
FY2016 – Present GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Tenor THB Mil.
100,000
Benchmark Bond 5 – 10yr 5-Yr
10-Yr
Benchmark Bond 15 – 50yr 15-Yr
30-Yr
bps
50-Yr
40
75,000
30
50,000
20
25,000
10
T-1= 00
0
-25,000
-10
-50,000
-20
-75,000
-30
-100,000
-40 Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
4
20-Yr
Max. (bps) Min. (bps) Average Accepted Yield
FY2016
Low Cost of Funding High Volume of Short-term Demand
T-Bill Auction Result
Basis Points
THB Mil. 75,000
10
Q1
60,000
Q3
Q2
Q4 8
45,000 5 30,000 3
15,000
2.4
T-1= 00
0.7 -0.4
-0.6 -0.8
-1.2
-15,000
2.0 1.3
0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.00.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -2.4
-2.1
-2.5
0.2
-2.6
-3.1
-30,000
-1.5 -1.6
-2.5 -3.0
-1.8 -2.3
0.1
-0.1 -0.5
-1.1
-1.4
-1.5
0
-0.1 -0.2
-3
-2.2 -2.4
-2.6
-3.8 -4.4
-45,000
-1.5 -1.7
-1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -3.2
0.9
0.6 0.3
-5.5
-5
-4.3
-4.4 -4.9 -5.2 -5.4
-5.0
-4.8
-5.0 -5.4
-8
T-bill 3 month
-60,000
T-bill 6 months R-bill 3/6 months
T-bill (Allocated Amount) Participated Amount (Excess Demand) -8.8 Spread [AAY-Yield(T-1)]
-8.4
-75,000
-10 Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
=
: 218,683 : :
Sep-16
162,000 20 56,682
(Bond Switching) (
Source Bond Destination Bonds Switched Amount
LB206A LB2 A LB DA LBA37DA LB666A
300,000
LB176A
250,000
Apr-16
• • •
LB176A 350,000
Mar-16
-56,682
3 5 10
)
, , ,
49
.3 100
,
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
LB666A
LB616A
LB466A
LB446A
LB416A
LB406A
LB396A
LB383A
LB366A
LBA37DA
LB326A
LB316A
LB296A
LB27DA
ILB283A LB283A
LB267A LB26DA
LB25DA
LB244A LB24DA
LB233A LB236A
LB226A LB22NA
LB213A LB214A ILB217A LB21DA
LB206A
LB193A LB196A LB198A LB19DA
LB183A LB183B LB191A
LB175A LB176A LB17OA
LB16NA LB171A
0
5
6
20,000
15,000
1. LB316A = 2. LB666A = 3. LB226A = (Greenshoe Option) 4. LB366A = 5. LB26DA = 6. LB466A =
MOF Outright PD
17-Jun-2022
1.875%
Coupon
Maturity Date
50,000
Total
28 December 2016
21 December 2016
14 December 2016
Re-open
Re-open
Re-open Re-open Re-open
17-Dec-2026
2.125%
16,000
Re-open
20-Jun-2031
3.65%
30,000
-
17-Jun-2036
3.40%
17-Jun-2046
2.875%
13,000
-
17-Jun-2066
4.00%
28,000
159,000
-
14,000
24,000
15,000
13,000
30 November 2016
7 December 2016
-
23 November 2016
12,000
14,000
12,000
36,000
14,000
16,000 13,000
Total
16 November 2016
16,000
14,000
LB666A 50-yrs
-
12,000
LB466A 30-yrs
9 November 2016
2 November 2016
26 October 2016
19 October 2016
30,000
LB366A 20-yrs
15,000
15,000
LB316A 15-yrs
12 October 2016
LB26DA 10-yrs
-
LB226A 5-yrs
5 October 2016
Auction Date
Auction Schedule for Q2/FY2016 Q1/FY2017 GOVTGovernment BondBondAuction Schedule (Oct â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Dec 16)
7
ที่มา : สานักจัดการหนี้ 2 สานักงานบริหารหนี้สาธารณะ
Quarter 1 Month Week-Date Wk. 38 20 Sep Wk. 39 22 27 29 Wk. 1 4 6 Wk. 2 11 Oct Wk. 3 13 18 20 Wk. 4 25 27 Wk. 5 1 3 Wk. 6 8 10 Wk. 7 15 Nov 17 Wk. 8 22 24 Wk. 9 29 1 Wk. 10 6 8 Wk. 11 13 Dec Wk. 12 15 20 22 Wk. 13 27 29 รวม
2,698
BMTA GG 2,698
9
Gauranteed and Serviced by GOVT
3,565
GG : Gov. Guarantee
16,595
SRT GG 9,000
BMTA GG 3,515
Not Guaranteed by GOVT
Sources
4,400
MPC
SRT GG 4,080
SRT GG 3,565
33
NG : Non Guarantee
39,701
BAAC GG 36,080
SRT GG 3,621
Term/Loan (month) 12 18 24 BMTA GG 4,400
S
Share
25
0
Total 0
66,959
0
9,000
3,515
0
H.M. the King's Birthday
0
BMTA GG/S 4,657
Auction Condition
A
Next 5 working days
Auction Bond
Next 5 working days (since pricing date)
Syndication Bond
0
Thursday
Tuesday
Date
0
0
MPC
Borrowing
Total
New borrowing for investment
New borrwing for capital substitution
Rollover
0
Substitution Day for Constitiution Day
93,616
75,143 13,117 5,356
Amount
0
80% 14% 6% 100%
26,657
0
0
0
4,657
0
0
0
0
0
MPC
22,000
0
0
2,698
36,080
0
4,080
3,621 0
0
20
0
0
15
0
22,000
Bond (year) 7 10
Substitution Day for Chulalongkorn Memorial Day BAAC GGLB197A or GGLB317A GG/S
5
0
3 0
2
3,565
4,400
Total
93,616
0
9,000
3,515
4,657
0
2,698
36,080
0
26,080
0
3,621
0
0
3,565
4,400
Grand total (Thai Mil.)
Q1/FY2017 SOE Bond Auction Schedule (Oct – Dec 16)
Quarter 2
Quarter 1
8
Mar 2017
Feb 2017
Jan 2017
Dec 2016
Nov 2016
Oct 2016
27
20
13
6
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Substitution Day for Makha Bucha Day
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Substitution Day for New Year's Day
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Substitution Day for Constitiution Day
H.M. the King's Birthday
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Baht Bond 1/FY2017
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Substitution Day for Chulalongkorn Memorial Day
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Mon
28
21
14
7
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
Baht Bond 2/FY2017
Tue
29
22
15
8
1
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
Action LB666A (50Y) : 10,000MB
Action LB226A (5Y) : 24,000MB
Action LB316A (15Y) : 15,000MB
Action LB466A (30Y) : 13,000MB
Action LB26DA (10Y) : 16,000MB
Action LB366A (20Y) : 12,000MB
Action LB226A (5Y) : 30,000MB
Action LB666A (50Y) : 14,000MB
Action LB316A (15Y) : 15,000MB
Wed
30
23
16
9
2
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
MOF Outright PD Committee
Thu
MOF Outright PD Committee : Quarterly PD's Evalution
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
PDMO Bond Calendar FY 2017
31
24
17
10
3
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
Auction T-bill
Fri
1
25
18
11
4
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
2
26
19
12
5
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
Sat Sun 1
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
9
Sep 2017
Aug 2017
Jul 2017
Jun 2017
May 2017
Apr 2017
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
24
17
10
3
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Substitution Day for H.M. The Queen's Birthday
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Substitution Day for Asarnha Bucha Day
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
National *Labour Day
Auction T-bill
Auction T-bill
First Day of submission for MOF Outright PD's Application
Auction T-bill
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
25
18
11
4
MOF Outright PD Committee : Quarterly PD's Evalution
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
26
19
12
5
Visakha Bucha Day
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
27
20
13
6
Songkran Festival Day
Chakri Memorial Day
Annual PDMO-Market Dialogue + MOF Awards
MOF Outright PD Committee : Final Review
Baht Bond 3/FY2017
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day
Coronation Day
Last Day of submission for MOF Outright PD's Application
Songkran Festival Day
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
Remark : Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day- waiting for an annoucement This schedule is subject to change without prior notice.
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
28
21
14
7
10
Peers Comparison
BOND market capitalization Source : Asian Bond online (ADB)
BOND mkt. cap : GDP
221%
Government BOND Yield Curve
% Yield
Public Sector (GOVT + CB + SOE) Private Sector
200%
130%
150%
98%
74%
100%
65%
Hundreds
% : GDP 250%
10%
9%
8%
Indonesia
7%
50%
23%
Vietnam 6%
0%
5%
Philippines Malaysia
Share of PUBLIC sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Bond to Total BOND mkt. cap. % : BOND mkt. cap.
4%
USD Billions 300
98%
100% 86%
China 2.81%
3%
83% 74%
2%
58%
GOVT 117
50%
1%
150
Japan 0%
SOE 22
USD Billions
85
BOT 78
Philippines
Thailand
38
161
136
-1%
0%
Te n o r
0 Vietnam
Indonesia
Singapore
Korea
55%
USD Billions
125
1.83%
3.26%
Thailand
USA
2.18%
Singapore
Malaysia
As of September 30th ,2016
Government BOND Yield Matrix
ASEAN & Peers
As of September 30th ,2016
6m Japan
1 yr
-
-
2 yr
-
3 yr
-
4 yr
-
5 yr
-
6 yr
-
7 yr
-
8 yr
-
9 yr
-
10 yr
20 yr
30 yr
40 yr
50 yr
-
USA Singapore Korea Thailand China Philippines Malaysia Vietnam
-
Indonesia Brunei Cambodia Laos Myanmar
below 1% -
-
over 4%
-
no data
11
Basic & Essentials Bond Market Development Strategy Public Debt Outstanding Total Domestic Public Debt Bond Market Capitalization Liquidity & Secondary Market Trading Supporting Inclusive Growth Through ASEAN Bond Market Integration Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
12
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN
Domestic Bond Market in Transition
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN (2013 - 2016) FY2017 Highlights
Market Deepening Oriented (2010 - 2012)
Sustainable Source of Fund
Water Decree (350,000 THB Mil.)
Full Funding Capacity : 1,200,000 THB Mil.
Thai Khem Khang (350,000 THB Mil.)
1,900,000 THB Mil. Long-Term Infrastructure Inv’t
Baht Bond (Foreign Issuers Bond)
Baht Bond (CLMV) Credit Guarantee Investment Facility (CGIF)
Regional Connectivity / AEC
Foreign Currency Bond (Plan)
Debt Folio Enhancement
ATM Lengthened
Well-Distributed Investor Base
Cost Lowered
Well-Balanced Fixed-Floating Ratio
FIDF Decree Passed = 70,000 THB Mil. Fiscal Space
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile / Bond Switching Bond Switching on E-Auction
Appointed 14 MOF-Outright PD
Market Infrastructure
Strengthening PD system
Activated Public Debt Management Fund
(Exclusivity, League Table, Greenshoes Option)
STRIPS Bond Inaugural 10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (10-yr)
Innovation / Product Development
Saving Bond Online
Long-term Fixed Promissory Notes (25-35-45-yr)
Super- Size Inaugural 25-yr Back-End Amortized Bond
Electronic Retail Savings Bond (3-5-yr)
Annual PDMO Market Dialogue Annual PDMO Market Dialogue
Market Consultation
Quarterly PDMO one-on-group MOF Outright PD Dialogue
Quarterly PDMO one-on-one PD Dialogue
50
30
Building Yield Curve / Enhancing Liquidity
15 10 7 5 3
Monthly PDMO one-on-one MOF Outright PD Dialogue
Liquidity-Oriented
300,000 MB
20
8 Tenors of Benchmark Bonds
150,000 MB Outstanding Amount
3 5 7
10
15
20
30
50
Equilibrium of Domestic Bond Market Issuers
• 74 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are issued by Government, Bank of Thailand and State-Owned Enterprises
Credit Rating
• 98 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment Grade
Investors
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor types
Domestic Bond Market (Classified by Issuers)
Domestic Bond Market (Classified by Credit Rating)
Baht Bond 1%
Corp Bond
25%
Government
BBB
A % 12
13% 12
38%
Corp Bond BOT
38%
28 BOT% 29% Total of 10.6 THB Trillion
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Sep 2016)
4%
Government Government
Government 38%
Government
248%% SOEs
Mutual Funds 2%
Household 3% Financial Institution Bot 4% 6%
2% Non-rated
A
SOEs SOEs 8% 8%
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
39% 38%
BOT BOT BOT
28% 2928 % % Total of 10.6 THB Trillion
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Sep 2016)
Other 1%
Non- profit organization 1%
Contractual
NR 14%
Funds 27%
Depository Corporation 14%
Depository Insurance NR Corporation Company 14% 28%
31%
Total of 4.4 THB Trillion
Source : BOT (End of Aug 2016)
13
Public Debt Outstanding (as of July 2016) = 5.96 THB Trillion (42.89% of GDP) Components of Public Debt
Units : THB Mil.
1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF) 2. Government Debt (for FIDF) 3. Non-Financial Sate Enterprise Debt
Autonomous Agency Debt
0.41%
4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
5. Autonomous Agency Debt
24,472.17 THB Mil.
8.64
% 514,778.46 THB Mil.
Public Debt Outstanding *including External Debt
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
17.07% 1,016,826.65 THB Mil.
GOVT Debt 57.72% 3,439,391 THB Mil.
GOVT Debt (for FIDF)
16.16% 962,634.80 THB Mil.
Source : Information Technology Centre, PDMO
Portion of Public Debt Serviced by The Government Public Debt Components “All”
Public Debt Components “serviced by the government ”
5.96 THB Trillion
3.87 THB Trillion
Autonomous Agency Debt
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
0.41% 24,472.17 THB Mil.
8.64% 514,778.46 THB Mil.
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
17.07% 1,016,826.65 THB Mil.
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
serviced by the government
Autonomous Agency Debt
serviced by the government 0.03%
7.34%
GOVT Debt 57.72%
GOVT Debt 53.31 % % 56.79
3,439,391 THB Mil.
GOVT Debt (for FIDF)
16.16% Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
962,634.80 THB Mil.
As of July 2016
14
100%
serviced by the government
0.84%
65%
Total Domestic Public Debt = 5.61* THB Trillion Assumptions : 6 months BIBOR = 1.72%, 6 months Fixed Deposit Rate = 1.225%, Inflation = 0.1%
Non-financial SOEs
400,000
Note : * Not included External Debt
financial SOEs
As of Jul 2016
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
Autonomous-Agencies
SOE Debt (Serviced by GOVT) = 489,012 THB Mil.
300,000 200,000
Excluding Not serviced by GOVT 816,693 THB Mil. External SOE debt (Serviced by GOVT) 62,540 THB Mil. External SOE debt (Not-Serviced by GOVT) 186,030 THB Mil.
TTM Fiscal Year
32,000
2,600
14,500
10,400 400 2,987 22,300 25,000
6,857
0
28,000
160,055
100,000
132,814
11,926 8,642
9%
10,000
FIDF 1
400,000
155,900
Budget Deficit
T-Bill
400,000 30,000
= 3,345,287
Next 5 yrs
6-10 yrs
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
10 yrs +
= 12yrs 1mth = 3.82% = 89: 11 = 6%
24,700
Maturity Profile
13,000
33% 165,902
47% 20%
10,000 39,000
27,600
29,400
20,000 5,500
128,057
196,379
3,900
95,936
2,400
33,581
35,000
214,252
12,000
57,900
59,000
239,798
88,320
59,141
53,664
22,688
2,450 76,700 18,900
286,104
27,000
164,501
176,164
16,000 10,302
146,713
10,115
100,000
Water RW DPL Ext. Guaranteed Debt (exclude FIDF) THB Mil. (Excluding foreign debt 94,104 THB mil. )
3,200
100,872
10,000
1,381 9,000 13,740 12,085
431,367
40,000
10,000
TTM Fiscal Year
On-lending Loan
20,000
5,344
0
TKK
GOVT Direct Debt
3,000
200,000
11%
20% 0%
300,000
= 3yrs 10mths = 3.92% = 94: 6 = 3% Maturity Profile
40%
TTM Fiscal Year
22,000
10 yrs +
32%
60%
74,000 28,198
126,850
57%
71,000
25,000
40,000 69,000
77,059
137,219
101,800
25,000
0
10%
6-10 yrs
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
FIDF 3
GOVT Debt (for FIDF) = 962,635 THB Mil.
300,000
100,000
Maturity Profile
81%
Next 5 yrs
200,000
= 2yrs 9mths = 2.85% = 69: 31 = 32%
10,000
Next 5 yrs
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOV’T Direct Debt Profile Dramatically
6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
ATM Lengthened Cost Lowered Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Note : Government Direct Debt = 3,345,287 THB Mil. (exclude FIDF and external debt)
As of Dec 2007
ATM
Average-Time-to-Maturity LENGTHENED by 6yrs 8mths
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 66 bps.
As of Jul 2016
12yrs 1mth
ATM
5yrs 3mths
Avg. cost
4.5%
(While ATM Lengthened by 6yrs 1 mth)
Avg. cost
3.82% Floating
Well-Balanced Fixed/Floating Ratio (Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 85 : 15)
10%
Fixed
Fixed
90%
89%
54%
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile (Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs is less than 50% of Total Debt)
Floating
28%
Next55yrs yrs year 6-10 yrs next 6 -10
18% 10 10 yrs yrs ++
33%
Next 5 yrs
11%
47% 20%
6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
15
Bond Market Cap.= 10.6 THB Trillion ($305 Bil.)*
GOVT Bond = 4.0 THB Trillion ($117 Bil.)*
% Share of GDP 140%
Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer
128%
120%
106% 100%
Baht Bond 1%
99%
80%
Corp Bond 25%
75%
2,682,581THB Mil
60% 24% 40%
SOEs Bond 8%
20%
12%
BOT Bond 28%
Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
0%
822,291 THB Mil.
Asian Fin. Crisis
Bank Loan /GDP
Equity/GDP
2,961,302 THB Mil.
Bond Market / GDP
Maturity Profile BOT vs GOVT Bond
Gov't Bond 38%
BOT ATM = 7mths GOVT ATM = 10yrs 8mths *As of Sep 2016
10%
78%
4,078,547 THB Mil.
18%
≤1
22%
12%
1<yr≤3
3<yr≤5
24%
36%
5<yr≤10
10<yr≤50
As of 30 Sep, 2016
*Source: BOT Exchange rate as of Sep 2016
Constantly Loan Bond Issuance Creates an Effective Government Bond Yield Curve % 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00
Thailand’s Loan Bonds (LBs) weighting in international indices
On-the-run Benchmark Bond in FY2017 Tenor 3 5 7 10 15 20 30 50
Symbol LB226A LB26DA LB316A LB366A LB466A LB666A
GBI-EM Global JP Morgan
Remark Included in GBI Index Included in GBI Index -
iBoxx Asia ex Japan Markit
8.0%
Asian Local Markets HSBC
9.6%
8.0%
Last Update : JPMorgan and Markit as end of September 2016 HSBC as end of June 2016
50 30
2.75 2.50
15
20
2.25
10
2.00
7
1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75
5
3 Benchmark Bond Objectives - 8 tenors of Benchmark Bond (3 5 7 10 15 20 30 and 50 years) build the benchmark yield curve as a reference rate for SOEs and private sectors - Main Government’s financing instrument - Build liquidity in the secondary market
0.50
TTM
16
Source: ThaiBMA Government Bond Yield Curve (end of September 2016)
Tier 1 > 100,000 THB Mil. in Size (86% of Trading Volume)
Total GOVT Bond = 42 Series (End of September 2016)
Tier 2 > 50,000 THB Mil. in Size
(11% of Trading Volume)
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
Tier 1: >100,000MB
550,000
FY2015 Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market Tier 1 Tier 2
(12 Series) 500,000
450,000
86%
11%
3%
Outstanding size (THB Mil.)
400,000
0
50
100
350,000
Tier 2: 50,000 – 100,000MB
300,000
(16 Series)
250,000
200,000
150,000 100,000 100,000
50 5 15
20
50,000
10
30 LB383A
LB396A
LB466A
LB406A
LB183A
LB22NA
LB244A
LB26DA
LB214A
LB19DA
LB171A
LB175A
LB267A
LB24DA
LB233A
LB366A
LB198A
LB316A
LB16NA
LB226A
LB283A
LB191A
LB326A
LB213A
LB193A
LB27DA
LB17OA
LB183B
LB666A
LB416A
ILB217A
LB446A
ILB283A
LB176A
LB616A
LB206A
LB236A
LB25DA
LB296A
LBA37DA
LB21DA
LB196A
0
FY 2016 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Source : ThaiBMA
GBI-EM Thailand – JPMCB0
FY2016 Secondary Trading Volume
9 of 10 most Trading Volume have outstanding size over 100 bil.
As of Semtember 2016
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
Trading Volume Current Outstanding ≥ THB 100 Bil. Current Outstanding = THB 50-100 Bil. Current Outstanding ≤ THB 50 Bil.
10 GOVT Bond series are included in JPMCB Index 2 of which are on-the-run Benchmark Bond (5-20-yr)
550,000
FY 2016 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
500,000
550,000 500,000
GBI-EM Thailand - JPMCB Trading Volume
450,000
450,000
400,000
400,000
350,000
350,000
300,000
300,000
250,000
250,000
200,000
200,000
150,000
150,000
20 5
100,000 100,000
100,000
50
15
10 50,000
50,000
30
Source : ThaiBMA
LB396A
LB383A
LB183A
LB233A
LB283A
LB416A
LB267A
LB22NA
LB244A
LB214A
LB406A
LB19DA
LB616A
LB24DA
LB213A
LB326A
LB171A
LB175A
LB198A
LB16NA
LB27DA
LB466A
LB316A
LB17OA
LBA37DA
LB193A
LB183B
LB666A
LB191A
ILB283A
LB446A
LB26DA
ILB217A
LB226A
LB366A
LB236A
LB296A
LB176A
LB25DA
LB196A
LB206A
0 LB21DA
0
17
Linking BAHT BOND to the Development of Bond Market Total Outstanding 10,611,220 THB Mil.
BAHT BOND
(As of 30th September , 2016)
Baht Bond 1%
(Foreign Issuers Bond)
THB 66,499 Mil.
Corp Bond 25% SOEs Bond 8% MHBK
BOT Bond 28%
CABEI KEXIM
WOORI EDLGEN
MOFL
GOVT Bond 38% What next? (PDDF.)
18
Broadening Issuer Base : AEC Becoming bond market leader of the region
Baht Bond’s Maturity Profile (Classified by Issuers)
2016 - 2025
Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
THB Mil.
CLMV
30,000
66,499 THB Mil.
40
%
26,590 THB Mil.
35
Non-Gov’t
10%
%
(23,066) MHBK
(6,500 THB Mi ) l.
Baht
International Credit Rating
30%
Size : 3,000 THB Mil. Issue: Sept 28th, 2015
20,000
IFIs ,
Lao PDR (Government)
& CGIF
(20,090 THB Mil.)
(39,909 THB Mil.)
60
%
15
KEXIM
%
12
(10,000)
%
10,000
9
9
%
%
(5,668)
1
%
(434)
CITI
Today
WOORI
HANA
WOORI
WOORI CABEI Lao PDR (Gov,t)
0
KEXIM
(6,330)
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
EDL-Gen Lao PDR (Gov,t)
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
(8,000)
9
%
(5,701)
4
KEXIM CABEI
2
EDL-Gen
(1,500)
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
KEXIM
%
(2,800)
%
KEXIM
4
KEXIM
%
(3,000)
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
EDL-Gen
Source : PDMO (As of 30th September , 2016)
19
2007 - 2015
Growth of Corporate Bond Outstanding has Accelerated
Baht Bond Outstanding
Total Outstanding 10,611,220 THB Mil.
Corporate Bond Outstanding % Share of Corporate Bond Outstanding to Bond Market Capitalization % Share of Baht Bond Outstanding to Bond Market Capitalization
Baht Bond 1% 66,499 THB Mil
25% Corp Bond 25% 66,499 THB Mil.
20%
2,682,581 THB Mil
2,682,581
18%
THB Mil.
SOEs Bond 8% BOT Bond
28%
2,961,302 THB Mil. GOVT Bond
1.4%
0.6%
0.6%
38%
4,078,547 THB Mil.
End of Sep 2016
Source : ThaiBMA (As of 30th September , 2016)
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by TTMs) THB Mil.
Average size per issuance:
867 THB Mil.
34%
1,000,000
35,563.8
26%
887,947.0
Total Outstanding : Number of Corporate Bond: Average size per issuance:
2,353, 578 THB Mil. 2,715 (Series) 867 THB Mil. Baht Bond Corporate Bond
1,934.0 716,733.5
16%
500,000
13,701.2
411,193.3
10% 4,300.0
11% 11,000.0 300,140.6
279,638.1
3% -
TTM (Years)
80,708.0
0
Source : ThaiBMA (As of 30th September , 2016)
20
-
-
-
-
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
3%
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by Size)
are 10 Major Corporates
THB Mil. 200000
Corporate Bond CPALL
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
B Rated Group (BBB, BB)
Baht Bond
10
3%
10,001 – 50,000
59
21%
≤ 10,000
215
76%
Total
284
100%
Baht Bond
PTT
Lao PDR (Gov’t)
BahtLaoBond PDR (EDL-Gen)
100000
% Share of Outstanding
≥ 50,001
Unrated
SCG
150000
No. of Issuers
A Rated Group (AAA, AA, A)
CPF BAY
Lao PDR (Gov’t)
THAI
(BBB+) 20,090 THB Mil.
50,000 50000
Lao PDR (EDL-Gen) (BBB+) 6,500 THB Mil.
10,000 0
Issuer 1
Issuer 284
Source : ThaiBMA (As of 30th September , 2016)
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
1%
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by Credit Rating) THB Mil. 200000
Corporate Bond
Rating
AA Rated
150000
No. of Issuers
375,242
16%
12
AA
425,044
18%
28
BB Rated
A
954,596
41%
56
Unrated
BBB
432,600
18%
61
BB
35,642
2%
4
BBB Rated
PTT
% Share of Outstanding
AAA
A Rated
CPALL
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
AAA Rated
is A Rated
Baht Bond Baht Bond
Baht Lao Bond PDR (Gov’t) Lao PDR (EDL-Gen)
Unrated
127,123
Total
2,353, 578
5%
123
100%
284
100000
Lao PDR (Gov’t)
SCG
BAY
(BBB+) 20,090 THB Mil.
CPF THAI 50000 50,000
Lao PDR (EDL-Gen) (BBB+) 6,500 THB Mil.
10,000 0
AAA AA Source : ThaiBMA (As of 30 September , 2016) th
A
BBB
BB Unrated
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
21
Annual Capital Flow classified by GOVT & BOT Bond (2007 – 2016)
159,554 THB mil. (2016YTD)
THB Mil.
350,000
159,554 THB mil
300,000
.
250,000
+93,249
BOT Bond 121,120 THB mil.
200,000
GOVT Bond 38,434 THB mil.
+84,003
150,000 +23,052
100,000 +129,454
50,000
0
0
-50,000
121,120
+196,463
+30,216 -22,494
-2,793
+117,144
+96,738 38,434
29,642
-1,598 -7,506
-53,807
-27,157
-71,124
-100,506 -37,994
-100,000
-150,000
2016 YTD
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in BOT Bond Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in GOVT Bond
2016 Weekly (The past 39 weeks) THB Mil.
150,000
As of 30th Sep, 2016
Net Change in Non-resident Holding (YTD) BOT Bond vs GOVT Bond
As o
(1 USD/ THB) THB Mil.
Accumulative NR Holding = 159,554 THB mil. (Since 1 Jan – 30 Sep 2016)
125,000
41
40
BOT Bond 100,000
121,120
39
THB mil.
75,000
38
50,000
37
GOVT Bond 25,000
38,434 THB mil.
0
36
0
35
-25,000
1 USD = 34.625 THB
-50,000 -75,000
34
33
-100,000
32
-125,000
Foreign Exchange (USD/THB)
NR Holding in GOVT Bond
31
NR Holding in BOT Bond
WK1 WK2 WK3 WK4 WK5 WK6 WK7 WK8 WK9 WK10 WK11 WK12 WK13 WK14 WK15 WK16 WK17 WK18 WK19 WK20 WK21 WK22 WK23 WK24 WK25 WK26 WK27 WK28 WK29 WK30 WK31 WK32 WK33 WK34 WK35 WK36 WK37 WK38 WK39 WK40 WK41 WK42 WK43 WK44 WK45 WK46 WK47 WK48 WK49 WK50 WK51 WK52
-150,000
As of 30th Sep, 2016
22
T
Non-Resident Holding in THB Bond = 732,436 THB Mil.
Outstanding
Thai Bond Market Cap. = 10,612,220 THB Mil.
GOVT Bond GOVT Bond
574,063 592,966
BOT Bond Bond BOT
118,177 138,591
SOE Bond Bond SOE
0 73
Corp Bond Corp Bond
6.24% 5.587% 1.390% 1.28% 1.306% 1.28 0.00% 0.001% 0.01 0.008% 0.01%
806 666
732,436
TOTAL TOTAL
7.53% % 6.902
692,906
GOVT Bond Outstanding 4,078,547
BOT Bond Outstanding 2,961,302THB Mil.
THB Mil.
Non-Resident 138,591 THB Mil.
Non-Resident 592,966 THB Mil.
28%
% of Thai Thai Bond Bond Market Market Cap. % Share of (9,202,573 THB Million)
Non-Res i dent Hol di ng Non-Resident Holding (THB Mi l l i on) (THB Million)
Issuer Issuer
25%
2,961,302 THB Mil. Domestic Investors
Domestic Investors
38%
2,822,711 THB Mil.
3,485,581 THB Mil.
95.3
85.5
4,078,547 THB Mil.
%
%
As of 30th Sep, 2016
Peers Comparison
Non-Resident Holding in Thai GOVT Bond is 592,966 THB mil. or 14.5 % of Total GOVT Bond Outstanding
(C
Percentage share of Non-resident Holding in Local Government Bond (Mar 2008 - Present)
40% Indonesia
39.1% Jun’ 16
Malaysia 34.52% 30%
Junr’ 16
Peak @ 19.1% (Apr’ 13)
20%
Thailand
14.5%
As of 30th Sep,16
Japan 10.26% Mar’ 16
10%
Korea 9.65 % Jun’16
2008
2009
Source : AsianBondsOnline, ThaiBMA
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Dec-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
0%
Mar-08
e a
2016
2016 As of 30th Sep, 2016
23
Source: Public Sector Development Group, PDMO
Pro-active Debt Management
Develop Domestic Bond Market to be a Sustainable Source of Funding for the Stability of Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Financial System
Foster Strong and Effective Organization
3 PDMOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Strategies
Formulate sound public debt management policies and strategies as well as conduct, monitor and evaluate public debt management operations under the relevant legal framework and guidelines
Mission
Transparency, Discipline, Trustworthiness, Driving Social and Economic Development
Values
Professional in public debt management for sustainable development
Vision
Nantachod Samarnwong
Economist
Sittan Sathianphattanakool
Economist
Nattakarn Boonsri, Director
Government Bond Market Development Division
Nattakarn Boonsri, Senior Expert
Kittipoom Ounjai
Economist
Phimonphan Tanwattana
Economist
Wanthanee Phongam
Economist
Paroche Hutachareon, Director
Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Executive Director
Upama Jaihong
Bond Market Development Bureau
Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division
Sunee Eksomtramate Executive Director
Pimpen Ladpli
Ekaraj Khuankhunsathid Executive Director
Executive Director
Policy and Planning Bureau
Public Infrastructure Project Management and Evaluation Bureau Acting Executive Director
Phacharaporn Khotnarin
Economist
Sriarpa Ruangruchira
Senior Economist
Puttipong Kanna
Economist
Oraporn Thomya, Director
International Bond Market Policy Division
Executive Director
Jindarat Viriyataveekul Jindarat Viriyataveekul
Public Infrastructure Project Financing Bureau
Sirasa Kanpittaya
Theeraj Athanavanich
Debt Management Bureau 2
Deputy Director-General
Suwit Rojanavanich
Director-General
Deputy Director-General
Debt Management Bureau 1
Bond Market Advisor
Bond Market Advisor
Front Office Middle Office Back Office Support Offic
Siribha Satayanon Secretary
Office of the Secretary
Nakarin Prompat, Acting Director
Financial Product Development Division
Teeralak Sangsnit Executive Director
Payment Administration Bureau
Risk Management Group
Information Technology Center
Legal Advisory Group
Public Sector Development Group
Internal Audit Group
Ace Viboolcharern Public Debt Advisor
Public Debt Advisor
For Further Information : Upama Jaihong
upama@pdmo.go.th
Executive Director of Bond Market Development Bureau
Nattakarn Boonsri
nattakarn@pdmo.go.th
Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Paroche Hutachareon
paroche@pdmo.go.th
Director of Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division
Oraporn Thomya
oraporn@pdmo.go.th
Director of International Bond Market Policy Division
Nakarin Prompat
nakarin@pdmo.go.th
Acting Director of Financial Product Development Division