KINGDOM OF THAILAND BOND MARKET FINANCING THAILAND’S FUTURE & CONNECTING ASEAN
Progress Update
» Committing to FY2018 Fund Raising Plan » GOVT Bond Auction Results » T-Bill Plan Q2/FY2018 » GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q2/FY2018 » SOE Bond Auction Schedule Q2/FY2018 » PDMO Bond Calendar FY2018
Basic & Essentials
» Bond Market Capitalization » Bond Market Development Strategy » Public Debt Outstanding and Portfolio » Liquidity & Secondary Market Trading » Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds issuance » Bath Bond Process » Corporate Bond » Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE MINISTRY OF FINANCE KINGDOM OF THAILAND
Quick Facts Public Debt Outstanding (as of December 2017) 6,371,416 THB Mil. (41.76 % of GDP)
14
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOVT Direct Debt Profile Dramatically (as of Dec 2017) » Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) 12yrs 10mth » Average Cost 3.52% » Well-Balanced Fixed : Floating Ratio 88 : 12 » Well-Distributed Maturity Profile 40:14:46 (TTM<5 : 6-10 : >10yrs)
15
Bond Market Capitalization (as of December 2017) 11,401,095 THB Mil. (74% of GDP)
16
GOVT Bond 39% of total Bond Market outstanding BOT Bond 26% SOEs Bond 8% Corp Bond 26% Baht Bond 1%
Baht Bond Outstanding and its Market Share (as of December2017) 94,177 THB Mil. (1% of Bond Outstanding)
19
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond (as of December 2017) » Annual Capital Flow (YTD) 217,048 THB Mil. GOVT Bond : 113,010 THB Mil.
22
BOT Bond :
» NR Holding in THB Bond GOVT Bond : BOT Bond : Others :
104,038 THB Mil.
851,839 THB Mil. (7.5% of Thai Bond Market Cap.) 683,090 THB Mil. (15.4% of GOVT Bond Outstanding) 167,471 THB Mil. (5.5% of BOT Bond Outstanding) 1,278 THB Mil.
Progress Update
Total Fund Raising Plan FY2018 GOVT Bond Auction Results
T-Bills Plan Auction Results GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q2/FY2018 SOE Bond Auction Schedule Q2/FY2018 PDMO Bond Calendar FY2018
1
2
2018 - 2022
750 – 1,150 THB Bil. per year
Government Funding Needs
1,024,xxx
New Borrowing 350 - 600 THB Bil.
2,XXXMB
3XXMB
4,XXXMB
38,XXXMB
Insurance Decree Substitution for foreign currency bond
86MB 59,XXXMB
- Tentative -
THB mil.
5x,xxxMB
38,XXXMB
57,251MB
On-Lending Supplementary Budget Deficit
162,922
Per year (2018-2022) 58,940
200,666
344,084
300,000
250,000
250,000
GOVT
390,000
450,000
15,000
Rollover 350 - 550 THB Bil.
390,000
390,000
On-Lending
16,051MB
14,943
Water and Road Management Bond Switching
56,682
90,000
82,000
342,458
277,632
158,246
101,800
37,900
109,000
FY2017
FY2018F
FY2019F
FY2020F
FY2021F
-0-
(2018-2022)
390,000
50,000 140,192
Per year
Deficit
390,000
189,xxx
52,000
149,209
231,000
307,945
138,161
65,953 FY2016
453,367
114,286
112,708
286,104
FIDF
FY 2018
507,XXX MB
340,122
191,095
129,124
59,374
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
450,000 Overallotment
Savings Bond 16,051
Roll Over 516,XXX MB
Rollover SOEs Debt
Rollover Govt Debt
342,458
Benchmark Bond 5-10-15-20-30-50 yr
580,xxx
Benchmark Bond Auction Plan Auction Size Times (Billion Baht)
Total Issuance (Billion Baht)
Tenors
Symbol
5
LB22DA
24 – 40
6-7
180 – 210
10
LB26DA
12 – 18
6–7
90 – 110
15
LB316A
11 – 15
5-6
70 – 90
20
LB366A
10 – 13
5-6
60 – 80
30
LB466A
10 – 13
5-6
60 – 80
50*
LB676A
11 – 15
5-6
70 – 90
Remark : * New Issue in FY2018 Coupon of 50-yr Benchmark Bond will be announced later
158,246
By Bills Remark :
-0-
1,024,xxx MB
Note :
Rollover FIDF Debt
FY2022F
57,251
Promissory Notes R-Bill, and Others Deficit
FY2018
GOVT Fund Raising Plan
On-Lending
New Borrowing
113,014
By Instruments
1. Exclude external funding for both new borrowing and rollover debt with amount of 111,xxx THB mil 2. Exclude T-Bill rollover debt with amount of 80,000 THB mil
Government Bond Supply Keep Increasing Since 2009 - Tentative -
Amount of Benchmark Bond Issuance to Actual Fund Raising (FY2009 – FY2018)
THB mil.
Others + Bond Switching
Benchmark Bond 1,250,000
6% 8% 1,000,000
17% -11% 750,000
37%
1%
2% 49% 500,000
10%
250,000
0
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
ALL FY2018
Benchmark Bond is approximately 580 Bil.
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
60% of FY2018 Funding Needs 1,024 Tril. - Tentative -
THB Mil.
500,000
Benchmark Bond
400,000
Tenors
Symbol
Issuance Size
5-yr
LB22DA
180,000 – 210,000
10-yr
LB26DA
90,000 – 110,000
15-yr
LB316A
70,000 – 90,000
20-yr
LB366A
60,000 – 80,000
30-yr
LB466A
60,000 – 80,000
50-yr*
LB676A
70,000 – 90,000
Total
580,000 Mil.
300,000
Total Benchmark Bonds Remark : * New Issue in FY2018
10 15
Top-up
20 30
Top-up
Top-up
Top-up
Top-up
5
200,000
580,xxx MB
100,000
5
10
15
-
20
-
30
-
-
LB666A LB676A LB676A
LB616A
LB466A LB466A
LB446A
LBA37DA LB383A LB396A LB406A LB416A
LB366A LB366A
LB316A LB316A LB326A
0
TTM
LB17OA LB183A LB183B LB191A LB193A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB206A LB213A LB214A ILB217A LB21DA LB226A LB22NA LB22DA LB22DA LB233A LB236A LB244A LB24DA LB25DA LB267A LB26DA LB26DA LB27DA ILB283A LB283A LB296A
New-Issue
50
-
50
3
FY2017 – Q1FY2018 GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Auction Schedule THB Mil.
bps
FY2018
FY2017
120,000
40
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
100,000 30 74,436
73,442
80,000
60,000
60,000 69,670
20,993
20,000
42,270
36,133
40,000
36,455 29,374 29,035
23,515
18,370 17,507
13,545
11,060
10,822
20
52,679
46,520
49,510
49,117
34,854
21,410 21,170 17,564 16,480
31,980 25,400
20,956 12,260
20,820 15,906
27,140
18,090
26,968 24,652 17,820 10,860
T-1= 0 0
10
0
-20,000 -10 -40,000 -60,000
-20
-80,000 -30 -100,000 -120,000
-40 Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
May-17
Jun-17
Overallotment Spread [AAY- Yield(T-1)]
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Not Fully Allocated or Subscribed Max. (bps)
Min. (bps)
FY2017 – Q1FY2018 GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Tenor THB Mil. 120,000
Benchmark Bond 5 – 10yr 5-Yr
10-Yr
Benchmark Bond 15 – 50yr 15-Yr
20-Yr
30-Yr
50-Yr
bps 40
100,000 30 80,000 60,000
20
40,000 10 20,000
T-1= 00
0
-20,000 -10 -40,000 -60,000
-20
-80,000 -30 -100,000 -120,000
4
Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
Overallotment Spread [AAY- Yield(T-1)]
-40 Not Fully Allocated or Subscribed Max. (bps) Min. (bps)
FY2017-18
Low Cost of Funding High Volume of Short-term Demand
T-Bill Auction Result
THB Mil.
Basis Points
100,000
15.00
Q2
80,000
Q3
Q4
Q1 10.00
60,000
40,000
4.8
5.00 2.9
2.7
20,000
0.8
0.9
0.4
-0.2 -0.7 -1.1 -1.9
T-1= 00
-1.4 -3.1
-5.2
-3.0
-4.6
-5.0
-5.1
-4.8
-5.00
-6.1
-6.8
-40,000 -7.6
-7.5
-7.5
-8.0 -8.9-8.6
-8.2 -9.5 -10.2
-60,000
-9.0
-9.3
-10.0
-10.2
-10.6
-10.9 -11.1 -11.2
-80,000
-100,000
0.00
-1.5 -3.3
-4.1 -5.8
0.2 -0.5 -0.5
-2.4
-2.9-2.9
-20,000
2.5
T-bill 1 month T-bill 3/6 months R-bill 3/6 months Jan-17
Feb-17
-10.00
-13.2
Participated Amount (Excess Demand) Not Fully Allocated or Subscribed Spread [AAY-Yield(T-1)]
-14.6
-15.00 Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17 Nov-17
Dec-17
5
6
1. LB676A = LB366A = LB466A = LB316A = LB22DA =
,
2.125%
28,000
13,000
15,000
LB26DA 10-yrs
(Re-open Re-open Re-open Re-open Re-open
17-Dec-2026
MOF Outright PD
17-Dec-2022
2.000%
Coupon
Maturity Date
55,000
30,000
25,000
LB22DA 5-yrs
Total
28 Mar 2018
21 Mar 2018
14 Mar 2018
7 Mar 2018
28 Feb 2018
21 Feb 2018
14 Feb 2018
7 Feb 2018
31 Jan 2018
24 Jan 2018
17 Jan 2018
10 Jan 2018
3 Jan 2018
Auction Date
(Greenshoe Option) (Re-open
20-Jun-2031
3.65%
12,000
12,000
LB316A 15-yrs
17-Jun-2036
3.40%
25,000
12,000
13,000
LB366A 20-yrs
17-Jun-2046
2.875%
12,000
12,000
LB466A 30-yrs
)
17-Jun-2067
3.600%
25,000
12,000
13,000
LB676A 50-yrs
-
157,000
-
13,000
12,000
12,000
30,000
12,000
-
12,000
-
15,000
13,000
38,000
Total
Auction Schedule for Q2/FY2016 Q2/FY2018 GOVTGovernment BondBondAuction Schedule (Jan â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Mar 18)
7
Source : Debt Management Bureau 2
Not Guaranteed by GOVT Gauranteed and Serviced by GOVT
NG : Non Guarantee
GG : Gov. Guarantee
Sources
Quarter 2 Term/Loan (year) Month Week-Date 0.5 1 1.7 2 3 5 Wk. 14 1 2 4 Wk. 15 8 9 11 Wk. 16 15 Jan 16 18 Wk. 17 22 NHA GG 23 25 1,300 Wk. 18 29 BMTA GG 30 1 5,722 Wk. 19 5 6 8 Wk. 20 12 MPC 13 15 Feb Wk. 21 19 20 22 Wk. 22 26 BMTA GG 27 1 6,108 Wk. 23 5 BAAC GG 6 8 12,000 Wk. 24 12 13 Mar Wk. 25 15 19 BMTA GG BMTA GG 20 22 1,742 1,656 Wk.26 26 MPC 27 29 รวม 12,000 1,742 0 2,956 6,108 5,722 0
0 28,529
3398
0
12,000
6,108
0
0
0
5,722
S
0
A
Auction Condition
Next 5 working days
Auction Bond
Next 5 working days (since pricing date)
Syndication Bond
e-Bidding Bond
7,000
7,000
BAAC GG
0 Date
Thursday
Tuesday
Monday
0
MPC
MPC
3,000
3000
BAAC GG
Bond (year) 7 8
7,000
1,000
SRT GG
10
10,000
10,000
EGAT NG
15
6,000
6,000
EGAT NG
20
Total
0 27,000
1,000
0
7,000
10,000
0
0
0
6,000
0
3,000
0
5
0
4 0
3 0
1,300
Total
0
0
0 55,529
4,398
19,000
16,108
0
0
0
11,722
1,300
3,000
Grand total (Thai Mil.)
Q2/FY2018 SOE Bond Auction Schedule (Jan – Mar 18)
Quarter 2
Quarter 1
8
Mar 2018
Feb 2018
Jan 2018
Dec 2017
Nov 2017
Oct 2017
27
13
12
26
6
5
20
27
26
19
20
19
13
30
29
12
23
22
6
16
15
5
9
2
1
8
26
25
New Year's Day
19
12
11
18
5
4
Substitution Day for Constitiution Day
28
27
14
13
21
7
6
20
31
30
24
23
Substitution Day for Chulalongkorn Memorial Day
17
10
9
16
3
2
Mon
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
Substitution Day for New Year's Day
The birthday of His Majesty the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej
Tue
28
21
14
7
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB676A (50Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5Y) : 30,000MB
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 15,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5y) : 25,000 MB LB676A (50y) : 13,000 MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5Y) : 40,000MB
Auction LB676A (50Y) : 14,000MB NEW 50Y
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 14,000MB
Wed
29
22
15
8
1
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
Thu
Substitution Day for Makha Bucha Day
MOF Outright PD Committee : Quarterly PD's Evalution
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
MOF Outright PD Committee
Royal Cremation of His Majesty the Late King
PDMO Bond Calendar FY 2018
30
23
16
9
2
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
Last day of submission for Baht Bond Application (2/2017)
Baht Bond 3/2017 special
His Majesty the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej Memorial Day
Fri
31
24
17
10
3
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
1
25
18
11
4
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
Sat Sun
Quarter 3
Quarter 4
9
Sep 2018
Aug 2018
Jul 2018
Jun 2018
May 2018
Apr 2018
Substitution Day for H.M. The Queen's Birthday
25
11
10
24
4
3
18
28
27
17
21
20
14
31
30
13
24
23
7
17
16
6
10
12
11
9
5
4
3
29
28
26
22
21
2
15
14
25
8
7
19
1
30
18
24
23
Subsitution Day for Songkarn Day
17
10
9
16
3
2
Visakha Bucha Day
MOF Outright PD Committee : Quarterly PD's Evalution
Last Day of submission for MOF Outright PD's Application
National *Labour Day
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
25
18
11
4
Auction TBA (new 5Y) : 25,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 7,000MB
Auction LB666A (50Y) : 7,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 20,000MB
Baht Bond 3/2017 Application Submission
Auction TBA (new 5Y) : 25,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 6,000MB
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 14,000MB
Auction LB666A (50Y) : 14,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 20,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 11,000MB
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 11,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 20,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB226A (5Y) : 25,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 13,000MB
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
26
19
12
5
Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day
Annual PDMO-Market Dialogue + MOF Awards
MOF Outright PD Committee : Final Review
Asarnha Bucha Day
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
Songkran Festival Day
Chakri Memorial Day
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
Remark : Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day- waiting for an annoucement This schedule is subject to change without prior notice.
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
27
20
13
6
10
Basic & Essentials Bond Market Capitalization Bond Market Development Strategy Public Debt Outstanding and Portfolio Liquidity & Secondary Market Trading Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds Issuance Bath Bond Process Corporate Bond
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
11
Peers Comparison
BOND market capitalization Source : Asian Bond online (ADB) % : GDP
BOND mkt. cap : GDP
250%
Government BOND Yield Curve
% Yield
210%
10 Public Sector (GOVT + CB + SOE) Private Sector
200%
9 150%
126% 8
95%
100%
73%
66%
Indonesia
7
50%
22% 6
0%
As of September 29th ,2017
Philippines Vietnam
5
Malaysia China
Share of PUBLIC sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Bond to Total BOND mkt. cap.
96%
100%
4
USD Billions 300
% : BOND mkt. cap.
85%
81%
50%
3
2.54%
USA Singapore
Korea
Thailand
2
73%
132 GOVT
3.44%
2.96%
61% 53%
1
150
1.85%
Japan
USD Billions
SOE 25
153 83
USD Billions
44
162
0
159
BOT 87
-1
0%
0 Vietnam
Indonesia
Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
5 yr 10 yr
Malaysia
30 yr
50 yr
Te n o r
As of September 29th ,2017
As of September 29th ,2017
Government BOND Yield Matrix
ASEAN & Peers
As of December 29th ,2017
6m Japan USA
1.53
Singapore
1 yr
2 yr
3 yr
4 yr
5 yr
6 yr
7 yr
8 yr
9 yr
10 yr
15 yr
20 yr
25 yr
30 yr
35 yr
40 yr
-0.15
-0.15
-0.12
-0.11
-0.10
-0.09
-0.06
-0.03
0.01
0.04
0.29
0.56
0.71
0.81
0.90
0.98
1.76
1.89
1.98
2.09
2.20
2.27
2.33
2.35
2.38
2.40
2.49
2.58
2.66
2.74
1.73
1.65
1.66
1.67
1.68
1.74
1.81
1.87
1.94
2.00
2.36
2.38
2.41
2.44
50 yr
Korea
1.58
1.81
2.11
2.18
2.31
2.45
2.49
2.52
2.56
2.59
2.63
2.61
2.58
Thailand
1.37
1.42
1.47
1.61
1.70
1.85
1.98
2.11
2.23
2.34
2.54
2.87
2.96
3.10
3.15
3.24
3.34
3.41
3.44
China
3.57
3.57
3.61
3.65
3.75
3.85
3.87
3.89
3.90
3.91
3.92
4.19
4.23
4.30
4.36
4.38
4.40
4.41
4.41
2.97
3.15
3.33
3.49
3.64
3.75
3.86
3.86
3.87
3.87
4.34
4.63
4.78
4.93
2.86
3.99
4.27
4.83
4.75
5.03
5.31
5.45
5.59
5.73
5.71
5.70
Vietnam
3.45
3.57
3.69
3.90
4.11
4.31
4.52
4.73
4.94
5.15
5.57
Indonesia
5.01
5.41
5.63
5.77
5.89
5.99
6.10
6.21
6.32
6.42
6.87
7.20
7.24
Malaysia Philippines
3.26
7.10
Brunei Cambodia Laos Myanmar
12
45 yr
below 1%
2.01% - 3%
over 4%
1.01% - 2%
3.01% - 4%
no data
ment
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN
Domestic Bond Market in Transition
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN (2013 – 2018) FY2018 Highlights
Market Deepening Oriented (2010 - 2012)
Sustainable Source of Fund
Water Decree (350,000 THB Mil.)
Full Funding Capacity : 1,200,000 THB Mil.
Thai Khem Khang (350,000 THB Mil.)
1,900,000 THB Mil. Long-Term Infrastructure Inv’t
Baht Bond (Foreign Issuers Bond)
Baht Bond (CLMV) Credit Guarantee Investment Facility (CGIF)
Regional Connectivity / AEC
Debt Folio Enhancement
Foreign Currency Bond (Plan) ATM Lengthened
Well-Distributed Investor Base
Cost Lowered
Well-Balanced Fixed-Floating Ratio
FIDF Decree Passed = 70,000 THB Mil. Fiscal Space
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile / Bond Switching Bond Switching (Multiple-to-Multiple)
Appointed 14 MOF-Outright PD
Market Infrastructure
Strengthening PD system
Activated Public Debt Management Fund
(Exclusivity, League Table, Greenshoes Option)
STRIPS Bond
Innovation / Product Development
Inaugural 10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (10-yr)
Electronic Bond Switching
Long-term Fixed Promissory Notes (25-35-45-yr)
Saving Bond Online
Electronic Retail Savings Bond (3-5-yr)
25-yr Back-End Amortized Bond Annual PDMO Market Dialogue
Annual PDMO Market Dialogue
Market Consultation
Quarterly PDMO one-on-group MOF Outright PD Dialogue
Quarterly PDMO one-on-one PD Dialogue
50
30
Building Yield Curve / Enhancing Liquidity
15 10 7 5 3
Monthly PDMO one-on-one MOF Outright PD Dialogue
Liquidity-Oriented
300,000 MB
20
8 Tenors of Benchmark Bonds
150,000 MB Outstanding Amount
3 5 7
10
15
20
30
50
Equilibrium of Domestic Bond Market Issuers
• 74 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are issued by Government, Bank of Thailand and State-Owned Enterprises
Credit Rating
• 99 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment Grade
Investors
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor types
Domestic Bond Market (Classified by Issuers)
Domestic Bond Market (Classified by Credit Rating)
Baht Bond 1%
1% Non-rated
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors) Mutual Funds 2%
A Corp Bond Government
26%
Financial Institution 3%
A % 12
39% BOT
12%
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Dec 2017)
Government
39% % 39
AAA 4%
SOEs SOEs 8% 8%
26% Total of 11.4 THB Trillion
Government Government
38%
BOT
BOT BOT
26%
2928 % % Total of 11.4 THB Trillion
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Dec 2017)
Other 1%
Household 4% Bot 8%
NR 14%
Non- profit organization 1%
Contractual Funds 23%
Depository Corporation 15%
Depository Corporation
31%
NR 16%
Insurance Company 27%
Total of 4.0 THB Trillion
Source : BOT (End of Nov 2017)
13
Public Debt Outstanding (as of Dec 2017) = 6.37 THB Trillion (41.76% of GDP) Components of Public Debt
Units : THB Mil.
4,140,445.23 886,993.21 940,263.44 393,062.98 10,651.26
1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF)
2. Government Debt (for FIDF) 3. Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt 4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 5. Autonomous Agency Debt
6,371,416.12
Public Debt Outstanding
Autonomous Agency Debt
0.17% 10,651.26 THB Mil. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
6.17
% 393,062.98 THB Mil.
Non-Financial
State Enterprise Debt
14.76
% 940,263.44 THB Mil.
GOVT Debt
GOVT Debt 64.98% 4,140,445.23 THB Mil.
(for FIDF)
13.92% 886,993.21 THB Mil.
Source : Information Technology Centre, PDMO
Portion of Public Debt Serviced by The Government Public Debt Components “All”
Public Debt Components “serviced by the government ”
6.37 THB Trillion
4.42 THB Trillion
Autonomous Agency Debt
0.17% 10,651.26 THB Mil.
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 6.17% 393,062.98 THB Mil.
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
serviced by the government
Autonomous Agency Debt
serviced by the government 0.02%
5.25%
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
14.76% 940,263.44 THB Mil.
GOVT Debt
GOVT Debt 64.98%
(for FIDF)
4,140,445.23 THB Mil.
13.92%
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
GOVT Debt 63.50%
serviced by the government
886,993.21 THB Mil.
0.70% As of Dec 2017 * Remark : Include external debt
14
100%
69%
Total Domestic Public Debt = 6.07* THB Trillion As of Dec 2017
Non-financial SOEs
400,000
financial SOEs
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
Autonomous-Agencies
SOE Debt (Serviced by GOVT) = 380,279 THB Mil.
300,000
Excluding Not serviced by GOVT 764,838 THB Mil. External SOE debt 198,861 THB Mil.
200,000
10% 7%
11,500
10,000
35,000
3,4006,000 28,000 2,600 25,000
61,249
10,120 5,82910,400 81,000
0 TTM Fiscal Year
Next 5 yrs
FIDF 1
400,000
28,198
74,000
40,000
71,000
69,000
25,450
111,800
70,732 42,059
0
66,680
80,224
57%
Next 5 yrs 3,000
Budget Deficit
50,000
DPL
Ext. Guaranteed Debt
(Excluding foreign debt 96,553 THB mil. )
6-10 yrs 10 yrs +
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
= 12yrs 10mths = 3.52% = 88: 12 = 7% Maturity Profile
24,700
20,000 10,000
176,081
14% 18,755
27,600
29,400
88,145
128,057
95,936
5,500
24,318
20,000
112,390
3,900
164,378
214,252
33,581
196,379
12,000
10,000
2,400
59,000
239,798
100,443
105,623
147,325
15,000
46%
40%
18,900
60,742
409,378
100,872 121,445
349,889
266,993
745 37,500 138,124 1,381
RW
165,902
7,682
On-lending Loan
1,650 7,728
70,890
0
TKK
27,000
16,600
100,000
T-Bill
GOVT Direct Debt (exclude FIDF) = 4,043,892 THB Mil.
35,409
300,000 200,000
20,000 9,000
3,100
= 3yrs 11mths = 3.58% = 88: 12 = 12% Maturity Profile
16,000
TTM Fiscal Year
400,000
10 yrs +
43%
40,000
151,850
200,000
6-10 yrs
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
FIDF 3
GOVT Debt (for FIDF) = 886,993 THB Mil.
300,000
100,000
Maturity Profile
83% 73,435
100,000
= 3yrs 5mths = 2.78% = 85: 15 = 15%
TTM Fiscal Year
Next 5 yrs
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOV’T Direct Debt Profile Dramatically
6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
ATM Lengthened Cost Lowered Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Note : Government Direct Debt = 4,043,892 THB Mil. (exclude FIDF and external debt)
As of Dec 2007
As of Dec 2017
ATM
Average-Time-to-Maturity LENGTHENED by 7yrs 7mths
12yrs 10mths
ATM
5yrs 3mths
Avg. cost
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 98 bps.
4.5%
(While ATM Lengthened by 7yrs 7mths)
Avg. cost
3.52% Floating
Well-Balanced Fixed/Floating Ratio (Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 85 : 15)
10%
Floating
Fixed
Fixed
90%
88%
54% 28%
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile (Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs is less than 50% of Total Debt)
Next 5 yrs
6-10 yrs
18% 10 yrs +
12%
46%
40% 14% Next 5 yrs
6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
15
Bond Market Cap.= 11 THB Trillion
GOVT Bond = 4.4 THB Trillion Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer
128%
103%
Baht Bond 1%
97%
74%
Corp Bond 26%
24%
SOEs Bond 8 % 869,549 THB Mil.
Asian Fin. Crisis
12%
BOT Bond 26%
3,041,769 THB Mil. Maturity Profile vs Remark : Excluded P/N , TL
Govt Bond 39%
4,431,884 THB Mil. As of 29 Dec, 2017
*Source: BOT Exchange rate as of 31 MAr2017
Constantly Loan Bond Issuance Creates an Effective Government Bond Yield Curve % 5.00 4.50 4.00
Thailand’s Loan Bonds (LBs) weighting in international indices
On-the-run Benchmark Bond in FY2018 Tenor 3 5 7 10 15 20 30 50
Symbol LB22DA LB26DA LB316A LB366A LB466A LB676A
GBI-EM Global JP Morgan
Remark Included in GBI Index Included in GBI Index
iBoxx Asia ex Japan Markit
8.07%
Included in GBI Index Included in GBI Index -
10.8%
AGBI Citi
9.98%
Last Update : End of Dec 2017
3.50
50 30
3.00
15 2.50
20
10 7
2.00
5 1.50
3
1.00 0.50
TTM
16
Source: ThaiBMA Government Bond Yield Curve (end of Dec 2017)
Benchmark Bond Objectives - 8 tenors of Benchmark Bond (3 5 7 10 15 20 30 and 50 years) build the benchmark yield curve as a reference rate for SOEs and private sectors - Main Government’s financing instrument - Build liquidity in the secondary market
Tier 1 > 100,000 THB Mil. in Size (78% of Trading Volume)
Total GOVT Bond = 39 Series (Since 1 Oct 2017 - 31 Dec 2017)
Tier 2 > 50,000 THB Mil. in Size
(19% of Trading Volume)
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
400,000
FY2018 Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market Tier 2 Tier 1
Tier 1: >100,000MB (17 Series)
350,000
78%
Outstanding size (THB Mil.)
300,000
0
19%
3%
50
100
250,000
Tier 2: 50,000 – 100,000MB 200,000
(11 Series)
15 10 150,000
20
30 5
100,000 100,000
50,000
50 LB383A
LB396A
LB676A
LB406A
LB183A
LB244A
LB22NA
LB214A
LB19DA
LB267A
LB24DA
LB233A
LB193A
LB198A
LB283A
LB191A
LB326A
LB213A
LB183B
LB27DA
LB416A
LB22DA
ILB217A
LB466A
ILB283A
LB366A
LB446A
LB316A
LB26DA
LB616A
LB666A
LB206A
LB236A
LB226A
LB25DA
LB296A
LBA37DA
LB196A
LB21DA
0
FY 2018 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Source : ThaiBMA
GBI-EM Thailand – JPMCB0
FY2018 Secondary Trading Volume
8 of 10 most Trading Volume have outstanding size over 100 bil.
(Since 1 Oct 2017 – 31 Dec 2017)
Outstanding
Trading Volume
(THB Mil.)
(THB Mil.) Current Outstanding ≥ THB 100 Bil. Current Outstanding = THB 50-100 Bil. Current Outstanding ≤ THB 50 Bil.
12 GOVT Bond series are included in JPMCB Index 4 of which are on-the-run Benchmark Bond (5-10-15-20-yr)
400,000
160,000
FY 2018 on-the-run Benchmark Bond GBI-EM Thailand - JPMCB
350,000
140,000
Trading Volume
300,000
120,000
250,000
100,000
200,000
80,000
15
10 150,000
20
60,000
30
5 100,000 100,000
40,000
50,000
20,000
50
Source : ThaiBMA
LB383A
LB396A
LB406A
LB416A
LB233A
LB24DA
LB22NA
LB214A
LB267A
LB666A
LB283A
LB244A
LB19DA
LB446A
LB193A
LB326A
LBA37DA
LB183A
LB616A
LB198A
LB27DA
ILB283A
LB191A
LB213A
ILB217A
LB676A
LB296A
LB236A
LB466A
LB366A
LB183B
LB206A
LB25DA
LB21DA
LB316A
LB196A
LB226A
LB22DA
0
LB26DA
0
17
Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds Issuance by Bond Types THB Mil. 750,000
Saving Bonds
Amortizing Bonds
Inflation-Linked
Long-term (>10 yr)
Medium-term (5-10 yr)
Short-term (<5 yr)
Not included Bond switching 150,000 mb 32,570 40,000
7,367 69,073
20,141 54,000
7,000 89,379
31,577 65,000
500,000 82,234
50,872
3,814
29,338
315,552
38,000
293,000
40,000
269,862 61,000
152,861
136,641
140,733
134,000
22,730 148,900
151,471
250,000 221,110
223,850 266,139
259,826 215,000
309,009
274,999
306,000
202,000
98,850 47,000
96,000 51,605
46,000
11,000
0
F Remark : * Estimated from FY2018 Fund Raising Plan
Average Time to Maturity (ATM) VS Average Cost of Funding GOVT Debt and Public Debt ATM (Year)
13
Public Debt ATM
Gov’t Debt ATM*
12
11.14 Yr Gov’t Debt
11 10 9
9.73 Yr
8
Public Debt
Oct-17
Nov-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17
Feb-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
7 Cost (%)
4.25
Gov’t Debt Avg. Cost*
Public Debt Avg. Cost
4
3.52% Gov’t Debt
3.75
3.49% Public Debt
3.5
18Remark : * Include FIDF Debt and Foreign Debt
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
May-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
3.25
Baht Bond Process
Who can apply?
Timeline For Baht Bond Application Process APPLICATION PROCESS: 3 rounds per year (9-mth issuance period for each round)
018 - 032
Baht Bondâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Maturity Profile (Classified by Issuers) Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
94,177 THB Mil.
THB Mil. 25,000
24
%
CLMV
7%
l.
12
%
WOORI
11
WOORI
KNM
8
%
WOORI EDL-Gen
3
%
MOFL
KEXIM MOFL
0
Today
41
%
%
KEXIM
MOFL
Credit Rating
(38,815 THB Mil.)
CABEI
MOFL
46
& CGIF
%
KEXIM
EDL-Gen
MOFL
International
NN2PC
HANA
10,000
MOFL (Government)
(42,862 THB Mil.)
%
KEXIM
6
l.
15
15,000
NN2PC
% (6,500 THB Mi ) (6,000 THB Mi ) IFIs ,
%
55,362 THB Mil.
20,000
5,000
EDL-Gen
59
MHBK
4
%
KEXIM MOFL
5
7
%
KEXIM
NN2PC
NN2PC MOFL EDL-Gen
MOFL
6
%
%
1
%
MOFL
2 2 %
MOFL
MOFL
%
MOFL
MOFL
Source : PDMO (As of December 29th, 2017)
19
2007 - 2017
Growth of Corporate Bond Outstanding has Accelerated
Baht Bond Outstanding
Total Outstanding 11,401,951 THB Mil.
Corporate Bond Outstanding % Share of Corporate Bond Outstanding to Bond Market Capitalization % Share of Baht Bond Outstanding to Bond Market Capitalization
26%
Baht Bond 1%
26%
26%
94,177 THB Mil (CGIF 2,780 THB Mil )
26% 94,177
27%
Corp Bond 26%
THB Mil.
2,964,572 THB Mil.
2,964,572 THB Mil
2,500, 000
20%
20%
20%
20% 18%
22%
19%
18%
SOEs Bond 8%
2,000, 000
17%
BOT Bond 26% 3,041,769 THB Mil.
1,500, 000
12%
1,000, 000
7%
500,00 0
2%
0.6%
0.9%
1.2%
1.0%
1.4%
1.1%
1.4%
1.0%
0.9%
0.7%
GOVT Bond
0.8%
39%
4,431,884 THB Mil. -3%
0
Source : ThaiBMA (As of 29th December, 2017)
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by TTMs)
Average size per issuance:
1,891 THB Mil.
THB Mil. 1,000,000
Total Outstanding : Number of Corporate Bond:
29% 800,000
27% 26,066
Average size per issuance:
23,159
2,772,491 THB Mil. 1,466 (Series) 1,891 THB Mil. Baht Bond Corporate Bond
781,678
716,656
600,000
14% 400,000
13%
14,437
12%
9,939
377,033
11,805
359,406
306,267
5%
200,000
8,772
137,275
TTM (Years) 0
-
20
Source : ThaiBMA (As of 29th December, 2017)
-
-
-
-
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
40%
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by Size)
are 11 Major Corporates
THB Mil.
Corporate Bond
200,000
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
No. of Issuers
A Rated Group (AAA, AA, A)
SCG CPALL
B Rated Group (BBB, BB)
≥ 50,001
11
40%
10,001 – 50,000
58
45%
≤ 10,000
154
15%
Total
223
100%
Unrated
Baht Bond 150,000
Baht Bond Lao PDR (Gov’t)
BahtLaoBond PDR (EDL-Gen)
PTT BJC
% Share of Outstanding
BAY 100,000
MOFL
NN2PC
(BBB+) 42,862 THB Mil.
(A-) 6,000 THB Mil.
50,000 50,000
EDL-Gen (BBB+) 6,500 THB Mil.
10,000 0
Issuer 1
Issuer 223
Source : ThaiBMA (As of 29th December, 2017)
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by Credit Rating) THB Mil.
Corporate Bond
200,000
Rating
AA Rated
SCG
A Rated
CPALL
BBB Rated
AAA
411,318
15%
11
AA
397,073
14%
22
1,425,266
52%
60
A BBB
408,236
15%
59
BB
39,537
1%
10
D
4,250
0%
1
Baht Bond
Unrated
MOFL EDL-Gen
BAY
No. of Issuers
D Rated
Baht Bond PTT
% Share of Outstanding
is A Rated
BB Rated
Unrated
150,000
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
AAA Rated
52%
Total
86,811
3%
60
2,772,491
100%
223
NN2PC
100,000
MOFL (BBB+) 42,862 THB Mil.
NN2PC (A-) 6,000 THB Mil. 50,000 50,000
EDL-Gen (BBB+) 6,500 THB Mil.
10,000 0
AAA AA
Source : ThaiBMA (As of
29th
December, 2017)
A
BBB
BB D
Unrated
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
21
Annual Capital Flow classified by GOVT & BOT Bond (2010 – 2017)
217,048 THB mil. (2017YTD)
THB Mil.
350,000
217,048 THB mil
300,000
.
250,000
BOT Bond 104,038 THB mil.
93,249
200,000
84,003
104,038
150,000
23,052 100,000
196,463 129,454
50,000
117,144
113,010
96,738
45,963 29,642
0
15,548
0
-53,807 -50,000
GOVT Bond 113,010 THB mil.
-71,124
-100,506 -37,994
-100,000
-150,000
2017 YTD
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in BOT Bond Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in GOVT Bond
2017 Weekly (The past 52 weeks)
As of 29th Dec,2017
Net Change in Non-resident Holding (YTD) BOT Bond vs GOVT Bond (1 USD/ THB) THB Mil.
THB Mil.
Accumulative NR Holding = 217,048 THB mil. (Since 1 Jan – 29 Dec 2017)
150,000
GOVT Bond
125,000
113,010 THB mil.
100,000
BOT Bond 104,038 THB mil.
75,000 50,000 25,000
0
0
-25,000 -50,000 -75,000 -100,000
-150,000
1 USD = 32.649 THB Foreign Exchange (USD/THB)
NR Holding in GOVT Bond
NR Holding in BOT Bond
WK1 WK2 WK3 WK4 WK5 WK6 WK7 WK8 WK9 WK10 WK11 WK12 WK13 WK14 WK15 WK16 WK17 WK18 WK19 WK20 WK21 WK22 WK23 WK24 WK25 WK26 WK27 WK28 WK29 WK30 WK31 WK32 WK33 WK34 WK35 WK36 WK37 WK38 WK39 WK40 WK41 WK42 WK43 WK44 WK45 WK46 WK47 WK48 WK49 WK50 WK51 WK52
-125,000
As of 29th Dec, 2017
22
2017
Non-Resident Holding in THB Bond = 851,839 THB Mil.
Outstanding
Thai Bond Market Cap. = 11,401,951 THB Mil.
Non-Resident Holding Non-Res Hol di ng (THBi dent Million)
Issuer
Issuer
683,090
6.24%
167,471
1.469% 1.390%
118,177
1.28%
0
0.000% 1.28
0
0.00%
85
0.001% 0.01
666
0.01%
1,193
0.010%
692,906
7.53%
851,839
4,431,884
7.473% BOT Bond Outstanding 3,041,769
THB Mil.
Domestic Investors
Domestic Investors
39%
2,874,298 THB Mil.
3,748,794 THB Mil.
94.5
84.6
4,431,884 THB Mil.
THB Mil.
Non-Resident 167,471 THB Mil.
Non-Resident 683,090 THB Mil.
26% 3,041,769 THB Mil.
5.993%
574,063
GOVT Bond Outstanding
8%
% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap. (9,202,573 THB Million)
(THB Mi l l i on)
GOVT Bond GOVT Bond BOT Bond BOT Bond SOE Bond SOE Bond Foreign Bond Corp Bond Corp Bond TOTAL TOTAL
26%
% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap.
%
%
As of 29th Dec, 2017
Peers Comparison
Non-Resident Holding in Thai GOVT Bond is 683,090 THB mil. or 15.4% of Total GOVT Bond Outstanding
Percentage share of Non-resident Holding in Local Government Bond (Mar 2009 - Present)
50%
Indonesia
40.03% Sep 17
40%
Malaysia 27.93%
30%
Sep 17
Peak @ 19.1% (Aprâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; 13)
Thailand
15.4%
20%
As of 29th Dec,17
Korea 11.44% Sep 17
10%
Japan 11.01% Sep 17
2009
2010
Source : AsianBondsOnline, ThaiBMA
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Dec-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Mar-17
Sep-16
Dec-16
Jun-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Dec-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Mar-09
0%
2017 As of 29th Dec, 2017
23
Source: Public Sector Development Group, PDMO
Pro-active Debt Management
Develop Domestic Bond Market to be a Sustainable Source of Funding for the Stability of Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Financial System
Foster Strong and Effective Organization
3 PDMOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Strategies
Formulate sound public debt management policies and strategies as well as conduct, monitor and evaluate public debt management operations under the relevant legal framework and guidelines
Mission
Transparency, Discipline, Trustworthiness, Driving Social and Economic Development
Values
Professional in public debt management for sustainable development
Vision
Sunee Eksomtramate Executive Director
Ekaraj Khuankhunsathid Executive Director
Paroche Hutachareon, Acting Senior Expert
Nantachod Samarnwong
Economist
Sittan Sathianphattanakool
Economist
Nakarin Prompat, Director
Government Bond Market Development Division
Policy and Planning Bureau
Kittipoom Ounjai
Economist
Wanthanee Phongam
Senior Economist
Angsuporn Suyangkul
Economist
Phimonphan Tanwattana
Economist
Sujitra Numthong, Director
Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division
Teeralak Sangsnit Executive Director
Anchana Wongsawang Acting Executive Director
Puttipong Kanna
Economist
Sriarpa Ruangruchira
Senior Economist
Thitiphan Economist Pairojteerarach
Senior Economist
Oraporn Thomya, Director
Front Office Middle Office Back Office Support Offic
Siribha Satayanon Secretary
Office of the Secretary
Sirus Pussayanavin
Senior Economist
Chanikarn Chaiyasena
Economist
Nakarin Prompat, Acting Director
Financial Product Development Division
Payment Administration Bureau
Risk Management Group Public Infrastructure Project Management and Evaluation Bureau
International Bond Market Policy Division
Anchana Wongsawang Executive Director
Upama Jaihong Executive Director
Public Infrastructure Project Financing Bureau
Bond Market Development Bureau
Legal Advisory Group
Pimpen Ladpli
Sirasa Kanpittaya
Information Technology Center
Public Sector Development Group
Internal Audit Group
Ace Viboolcharern
Public Debt Advisor
Deputy Director-General
Prapas Kong-Ied
Director-General
Deputy Director-General
Jindarat Viriyataveekul Executive Director
Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Debt Management Bureau 2
Debt Management Bureau 1
Theeraj Athanavanich
Bond Market Advisor
For Further Information : Upama Jaihong
upama@pdmo.go.th
Executive Director of Bond Market Development Bureau
Paroche Hutachareon
paroche@pdmo.go.th
Acting Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Oraporn Thomya
oraporn@pdmo.go.th
Director of International Bond Market Policy Division
Nakarin Prompat
nakarin@pdmo.go.th
Director of Financial Product Development Division
Sujitra Numthong
sujitra@pdmo.go.th
Director of Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division