KINGDOM OF THAILAND BOND MARKET FINANCING THAILAND’S FUTURE & CONNECTING ASEAN
Progress Update
» Committing to FY2018 Fund Raising Plan » GOVT Bond Auction Results » T-Bill Auction Results » GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2018 » SOE Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2018 » PDMO Bond Calendar FY2018
Basic & Essentials
» Bond Market Capitalization » Bond Market Development Strategy » Public Debt Outstanding and Portfolio » Liquidity & Secondary Market Trading » Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds issuance » Bath Bond Process » Corporate Bond » Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
Q3/FY2018
PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE MINISTRY OF FINANCE KINGDOM OF THAILAND
Quick Facts Public Debt Outstanding (as of March 2018) 6,454,169 THB Mil. (41.04 % of GDP)
14
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOVT Direct Debt Profile Dramatically (as of March 2018) » Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) 12yrs 10mth » Average Cost 3.34% » Well-Balanced Fixed : Floating Ratio 88 : 12 » Well-Distributed Maturity Profile 38:16:46 (TTM<5 : 6-10 : >10yrs)
15
Bond Market Capitalization (as of March 2018) 11,487,017 THB Mil. (73% of GDP)
16
GOVT Bond 39% of total Bond Market outstanding BOT Bond 26% SOEs Bond 7% Corp Bond 27% Baht Bond 1%
Baht Bond Outstanding and its Market Share (as of March 2018) 92,177 THB Mil. (1% of Bond Outstanding)
19
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond (as of March 2018) » Annual Capital Flow (YTD) 21,063 THB Mil. GOVT Bond : -8,757 THB Mil.
22
BOT Bond :
» NR Holding in THB Bond GOVT Bond : BOT Bond : Others :
29,820 THB Mil.
872,584 THB Mil. (7.6% of Thai Bond Market Cap.) 674,333 THB Mil. (15.1% of GOVT Bond Outstanding) 197,291 THB Mil. (6.6% of BOT Bond Outstanding) 960 THB Mil.
Progress Update
Total Fund Raising Plan FY2018 GOVT Bond Auction Results T-Bills Auction Results GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2018 SOE Bond Auction Schedule Q3/FY2018 PDMO Bond Calendar FY2018
1
2
2018 - 2022
750 – 1,150 THB Bil. per year
Government Funding Needs
1,124,xxx
New Borrowing 450 - 600 THB Bil.
2,XXXMB
3XXMB
4,XXXMB
38,XXXMB
Insurance Decree Substitution for foreign currency bond
86MB 59,XXXMB
- Tentative -
THB mil.
38,XXXMB
Per year
5x,xxxMB
57,251MB
162,922
100,000
On-Lending Supplementary Budget Deficit
(2018-2022) 58,940
200,666
344,084
300,000
250,000
250,000
GOVT
390,000
450,000
15,000
140,192
390,000
390,000
On-Lending
16,051MB
14,943
Water and Road Management Bond Switching
56,682
90,000
307,945
138,161
82,000
342,458
277,632
158,246
65,953 FY2016
101,800
37,900
109,000
FY2017
FY2018F
FY2019F
FY2020F
FY2021F
-0-
(2018-2022)
390,000
50,000
Rollover 350 - 550 THB Bil.
Per year
Deficit
390,000
189,xxx
52,000
149,209
231,000
453,367
114,286
112,708
286,104
FIDF 340,122
191,095
129,124
59,374
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
450,000 Overallotment
Rollover SOEs Debt
Roll Over 516,755 MB
-0-
1,124,006 MB
100,000
Savings Bond 16,051
Rollover 342,458 Govt Debt
Benchmark Bond 5-10-15-20-30-50 yr
Benchmark Bond Auction Plan Auction Size Times (Billion Baht)
Symbol
5
LB22DA
24 – 40
6-7
180 – 210
10
LB26DA
12 – 18
6–7
90 – 110
15
LB316A
11 – 15
5-6
70 – 90
20
LB366A
10 – 13
5-6
60 – 80
30
LB466A
10 – 13
5-6
60 – 80
50
LB676A
11 – 15
5-6
70 – 90
Rollover 158,246 FIDF Debt
By Bills
Total Issuance (Billion Baht)
Tenors
580,000
Remark :
FY2022F
57,251
Promissory Notes R-Bill, and Others Deficit
FY2018
GOVT Fund Raising Plan
On-Lending Supplementary Deficit
607,251 MB
New Borrowing
FY 2018
113,014
By Instruments
1. Exclude external funding for both new borrowing and rollover debt with amount of 111,xxx THB mil 2. Exclude T-Bill rollover debt with amount of 80,000 THB mil
Government Bond Supply Keep Increasing Since 2009 - Tentative -
Amount of Benchmark Bond Issuance to Actual Fund Raising (FY2009 – FY2018)
THB mil.
Others + Bond Switching
Benchmark Bond 1,250,000
6% 8% 1,000,000
17% -11% 750,000
37%
1%
2% 49% 500,000
10%
250,000
0
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
ALL FY2018 Benchmark Bond is approximately 580 Bil. - Tentative -
THB Mil.
500,000
Benchmark Bond
400,000
Tenors
Symbol
Issuance Size
5-yr
LB22DA
180,000 – 210,000
10-yr
LB26DA
90,000 – 110,000
15-yr
LB316A
70,000 – 90,000
20-yr
LB366A
60,000 – 80,000
30-yr
LB466A
60,000 – 80,000
50-yr*
LB676A
70,000 – 90,000
Total
580,000 Mil.
300,000
Total Benchmark Bonds 5
Remark : * New Issue in FY2018 15
Top-up
20 30
Top-up
Top-up
Top-up
10 Top-up
200,000
580,xxx MB
100,000
5
10
15
-
20
-
30
-
-
LB666A TBA LB676A
LB616A
LB466A LB466A
LB446A
LBA37DA LB383A LB396A LB406A LB416A
LB366A LB366A
LB316A LB316A LB326A
0
TTM
LB17OA LB183A LB183B LB191A LB193A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB206A LB213A LB214A ILB217A LB21DA LB226A LB22NA LB22DA LB22DA LB233A LB236A LB244A LB24DA LB25DA LB267A LB26DA LB26DA LB27DA ILB283A LB283A LB296A
New-Issue
50
-
50
3
FY2017 – Q2FY2018 GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Auction Schedule THB Mil. 120,000
bps
FY2018
FY2017 Q3
Q2
Q1
40
Q2
106,505
97,350
100,000
30 74,436
73,442
80,000
62,845
60,000
60,000
49,510 36,455
34,854
17,564 21,410 21,170 16,480 13,545
20,000
T-1= 0 0
20
46,520
42,270
40,000
58,015 52,679
31,980 20,820 15,906
20,956
25,400
26,968
27,140
17,820
18,090
12,260
24,652 18,118 16,570
10,860
12,865 12,432
10
22,276 15,960
23,515
0
-20,000 -10 -40,000 -60,000
-20
-80,000 -30 -100,000 -120,000
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
Aug-17
Sep-17
Overallotment Spread [AAY- Yield(T-1)]
Oct-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
-40
Mar-18
Not Fully Allocated or Subscribed Max. (bps)
Min. (bps)
FY2017 – Q2FY2018 GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Tenor THB Mil. 120,000
Benchmark Bond 5 – 10yr 5-Yr
10-Yr
bps
Benchmark Bond 15 – 50yr 15-Yr
20-Yr
30-Yr
50-Yr
40
100,000 30 80,000 60,000
20
40,000 10 20,000
T-1= 00
0
-20,000 -10 -40,000 -60,000
-20
-80,000 -30 -100,000 -120,000
4
Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
Overallotment Spread [AAY- Yield(T-1)]
-40 Not Fully Allocated or Subscribed Max. (bps) Min. (bps)
FY2017 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Q2FY2018 T-Bill Auction Results Classified by Auction Schedule THB Mil.
Basis Points
100,000
15.00
Q3
80,000
Q4
Q1
Q2 10.00
60,000
40,000 5.00
5.9 4.8
4.7 4.1
20,000 3.1
2.5
T-1= 00
2.9
0.9
0.4
-1.5
-2.4 -3.1 -4.6
-5.0
-6.8 -8.0 -8.6 -8.9
-4.1 -4.9 -5.0 -5.6
-4.8
-5.00
-7.5
-7.5 -8.2 -9.5 -10.2
-10.00
-9.0
-9.3
-80,000
-10.0
-10.2 -10.9 -11.1 -11.2
T-bill 1 month T-bill 3/6 months R-bill 3/6 months
-13.2
-100,000 Apr-17
-2.9
-3.0
-3.3
-40,000
0.00
0.5 -0.2
-1.4
-20,000
-60,000
0.6
0.2 -0.5 -0.5
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17-14.6
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17 Nov-17
-10.6
-9.9
Participated Amount (Excess Demand) Not Fully Allocated or Subscribed Spread [AAY-Yield(T-1)]
-15.00 Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
5
6 Total
LB326A = LB676A = LB26DA = LB366A =
LB A = 2. LB22DA =
30,000
17-Dec-2026
2.125%
15,000
15,000
25-Jun-2032
3.775%
(Greenshoe Options) Re-open
Re-open Overallotment)
Re-open
Re-open 2561 14 (Re-open MOF Outright PD
17-Dec-2022
2.000%
Coupon
Maturity Date
30,000
Total
27 Jun 2018
20 Jun 2018
13 Jun 2018 13,000
(Re-open
17-Jun-2036
3.400%
13,000
14,000 3.600%
LB676A
2560 3) 30,000-36,000
17-Jun-2067
LB366A LB466A
17-Jun-2046
2.875%
26,000
)
113,000
-
13,000
-
13,000
15,000
14,000
15,000
-
30,000
13,000
6 Jun 2018
13,000
14,000
LB676A 50-yrs
-
15,000
15,000
13,000
LB466A 30-yrs
30 May 2018
23 May 2018
16 May 2018
9 May 2018
2 May 2018
25 Apr 2018
18 Apr 2018
30,000
LB366A 20-yrs
-
LB326A 15-yrs
11 Apr 2018
LB26DA 10-yrs
-
LB22DA 5-yrs
4 Apr 2018
Auction Date
Auction Schedule for Q2/FY2016 Q3/FY2018 GOVTGovernment BondBondAuction Schedule (Apr â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Jun 18)
7
Source : Debt Management Bureau 2
Quarter 3 Week-Date Month Wk. 26 26 Mar 27 29 Wk. 27 2 3 5 Wk. 28 9 10 12 Apr Wk. 29 16 17 19 Wk. 30 23 24 26 Wk. 31 30 1 3 Wk. 32 7 8 10 Wk. 33 14 May 15 17 Wk. 34 21 22 24 Wk. 35 28 29 31 Wk. 36 4 5 7 Wk. 37 11 12 14 Jun Wk. 38 18 19 21 Wk. 39 25 26 28 รวม
1
-
3,232
Not Guaranteed by GOVT Gauranteed and Serviced by GOVT
NG : Non Guarantee
GG : Gov. Guarantee
Sources
6,280 39,034
6,280 31,151 4,650
7,000
0
0
0
4,650
7,000 SRT GG
SRT GG
4,650
-
1,000
S
A
MPC
-
Next 5 working days
Auction Bond
Next 5 working days (since pricing date)
Syndication Bond
e-Bidding Bond
Auction Condition
7,000
7,000
Thursday
Tuesday
Monday
Date
3,000
3,000
-
0
3,000
3,000 0
0
1,219
NHA GG
10,000
0 21,000
6,280 60,034
7,000
3,000
3,000 0
0
7,000
4,650
0
3,000
1,219
2,013
7,980
11,891
5,000
1,000
Grand total (Thai Mil.)
0
7,000
0
0
10,000
1,219
BMTA GG
10,000
0
1,000
Total
0
EGAT NG
20
2,013
15
2,013 PWA NG
PEA NG
MPC
10
0
MPC
Bond (year) 7
7,980
BAAC GG
5
7,980
1,000
4 NHA GG
1,891
0
3
1,891 SRT GG
Total
5,000
BMTA GG
4
5,000 BMTA GG
SRT GG
Term/Loan (year) 2 3
Q3/FY2018 SOE Bond Auction Schedule (Apr – Jun 18)
Quarter 2
Quarter 1
8
Mar 2018
Feb 2018
Jan 2018
Dec 2017
Nov 2017
Oct 2017
27
13
12
26
6
5
20
27
26
19
20
19
13
30
29
12
23
22
6
16
15
5
9
2
1
8
26
25
New Year's Day
19
12
11
18
5
4
Substitution Day for Constitiution Day
28
27
14
13
21
7
6
20
31
30
24
23
Substitution Day for Chulalongkorn Memorial Day
17
10
9
16
3
2
Mon
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
Substitution Day for New Year's Day
The birthday of His Majesty the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej
Tue
28
21
14
7
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB676A (50Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5Y) : 30,000MB
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 15,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5y) : 25,000 MB LB676A (50y) : 13,000 MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5Y) : 40,000MB
Auction LB676A (50Y) : 14,000MB NEW 50Y
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 14,000MB
Wed
29
22
15
8
1
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
Thu
Substitution Day for Makha Bucha Day
MOF Outright PD Committee : Quarterly PD's Evalution
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
MOF Outright PD Committee
Royal Cremation of His Majesty the Late King
PDMO Bond Calendar FY 2018
30
23
16
9
2
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
Last day of submission for Baht Bond Application (2/2017)
Baht Bond 3/2017 special
His Majesty the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej Memorial Day
Fri
31
24
17
10
3
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
1
25
18
11
4
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
Sat Sun
Sep 2018
Aug 2018
Jul 2018
Jun 2018
May 2018
Apr 2018
9
18
25
24
11
10
17
4
3
14
13
28
7
6
27
31
30
21
24
23
Substitution Day for H.M. The Queen's Birthday
17
16
20
10
9
12
11
3
5
4
26
29
28
2
22
21
25
15
14
19
8
18
1
24
7
Baht Bond 1/FY2018
30
23
Subsitution Day for Songkarn Day
17
10
9
16
3
2
Visakha Bucha Day
MOF Outright PD Committee : Quarterly PD's Evalution
Last Day of submission for MOF Outright PD's Application
National *Labour Day
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
25
18
11
4
Auction TBA (new 5Y) : 25,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 7,000MB
Auction LB666A (50Y) : 7,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 20,000MB
Baht Bond 3/2017 Application Submission
Auction TBA (new 5Y) : 25,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 6,000MB
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 14,000MB
Auction LB666A (50Y) : 14,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 15,000MB
Auction LB676A (50Y) : 14,000MB
Auction LB326A (15Y) : 15,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5Y) : 30,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 13,000MB
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
26
19
12
5
Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day
Annual PDMO-Market Dialogue + MOF Awards
MOF Outright PD Committee : Final Review
Asarnha Bucha Day
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
Songkran Festival Day
Chakri Memorial Day
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
Remark : Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day- waiting for an annoucement This schedule is subject to change without prior notice.
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
27
20
13
6
10
Basic & Essentials Bond Market Capitalization
Bond Market Development Strategy Public Debt Outstanding and Portfolio Liquidity & Secondary Market Trading Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds Issuance Bath Bond Process
Corporate Bond Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
11
Peers Comparison
BOND market capitalization Source : Asian Bond online (ADB) % : GDP
BOND mkt. cap : GDP
250%
10
Public Sector (GOVT + CB + SOE) Private Sector
200%
Government BOND Yield Curve
% Yield
210%
9
150%
126% 95%
100%
72%
8
69%
Indonesia
50%
7
22%
Philippines
0%
6 As of December 29th ,2017
Vietnam
5
Malaysia
Share of PUBLIC sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Bond to Total BOND mkt. cap.
China 4
USD Billions 300
% : BOND mkt. cap.
84%
81% 61%
1.84% 52%
USD Billions
50%
1
150
SOE 26
166
156 USD Billions
Japan
0
166
BOT 93
89
0 Indonesia
Philippines
Te n o r
-1
0% Vietnam
Thailand
Thailand
2
73%
135 GOVT
45
USA Singapore Korea
2.56%
3
94%
100%
3.50%
3.31%
Singapore
5 yr
Malaysia
As of March
As of December 29th ,2017
30th
10 yr
30 yr
50 yr
,2018
Government BOND Yield Matrix
ASEAN & Peers
As of March 30th ,2017
1 yr
2 yr
3 yr
4 yr
5 yr
6 yr
7 yr
8 yr
9 yr
10 yr
15 yr
20 yr
25 yr
30 yr
35 yr
40 yr
Japan
-0.14
-0.14
-0.12
-0.11
-0.11
-0.09
-0.05
-0.03
0.01
0.04
0.25
0.52
0.63
0.74
0.81
0.88
Singapore
1.67
1.78
1.88
1.98
2.08
2.14
2.20
2.26
2.32
2.39
2.66
2.72
2.78
2.84
Korea
1.85
2.04
2.17
2.29
2.40
2.44
2.49
2.53
2.57
2.61
2.62
2.62
2.63
2.63
USA
2.08
2.29
2.43
2.52
2.60
2.66
2.72
2.74
2.76
2.78
2.84
2.89
2.96
3.02
Thailand
1.33
1.37
1.60
1.65
1.84
1.99
2.14
2.29
2.43
2.56
2.99
3.14
3.23
3.31
3.35
China
3.23
3.35
3.47
3.54
3.61
3.66
3.72
3.71
3.70
3.70
3.96
4.00
4.06
4.12
4.14
Malaysia
3.21
3.34
3.46
3.51
3.56
3.76
3.85
3.90
3.94
3.95
4.42
4.55
4.68
4.80
Vietnam
2.29
2.53
2.77
2.99
3.22
3.46
3.71
3.92
4.14
4.35
4.84
Philippines
3.32
4.15
4.54
5.39
5.16
5.81
6.46
6.29
6.12
5.95
6.24
6.52
Indonesia
5.28
5.50
6.08
6.16
5.99
6.35
6.55
6.63
6.59
6.64
6.87
7.27
7.32
7.37
Brunei Cambodia Laos Myanmar
12
below 1%
2.01% - 3%
over 4%
1.01% - 2%
3.01% - 4%
no data
45 yr
50 yr
3.38
3.42
3.50
4.16
4.17
4.18
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN
Domestic Bond Market in Transition
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN (2013 – 2018) FY2018 Highlights
Market Deepening Oriented (2010 - 2012)
Sustainable Source of Fund
Water Decree (350,000 THB Mil.)
Full Funding Capacity : 1,200,000 THB Mil.
Thai Khem Khang (350,000 THB Mil.)
1,900,000 THB Mil. Long-Term Infrastructure Inv’t
Baht Bond (Foreign Issuers Bond)
Baht Bond (CLMV) Credit Guarantee Investment Facility (CGIF)
Regional Connectivity / AEC
Debt Folio Enhancement
Foreign Currency Bond (Plan) ATM Lengthened
Well-Distributed Investor Base
Cost Lowered
Well-Balanced Fixed-Floating Ratio
FIDF Decree Passed = 70,000 THB Mil. Fiscal Space
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile / Bond Switching Bond Switching (Multiple-to-Multiple)
Appointed 14 MOF-Outright PD
Market Infrastructure
Strengthening PD system
Activated Public Debt Management Fund
(Exclusivity, League Table, Greenshoes Option)
STRIPS Bond
Innovation / Product Development
Inaugural 10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (10-yr)
Electronic Bond Switching
Long-term Fixed Promissory Notes (25-35-45-yr)
Saving Bond Online
Electronic Retail Savings Bond (3-5-yr)
25-yr Back-End Amortized Bond Annual PDMO Market Dialogue
Annual PDMO Market Dialogue
Market Consultation
Quarterly PDMO one-on-group MOF Outright PD Dialogue
Quarterly PDMO one-on-one PD Dialogue
50
30
Building Yield Curve / Enhancing Liquidity
15 10 7 5 3
Monthly PDMO one-on-one MOF Outright PD Dialogue
Liquidity-Oriented
300,000 MB
20
8 Tenors of Benchmark Bonds
150,000 MB Outstanding Amount
3 5 7
10
15
20
30
50
Equilibrium of Domestic Bond Market Issuers
• 72 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are issued by Government, Bank of Thailand and State-Owned Enterprises
Credit Rating
• 99 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment Grade
Investors
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor types
Domestic Bond Market (Classified by Issuers)
Domestic Bond Market (Classified by Credit Rating)
Baht Bond 1%
1% Non-rated
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors) Mutual Other Funds 1% 2%
Household 4%
Non- profit organization 1%
A A % 12
Corp Bond Government
27%
39% BOT
12%
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Mar 2018)
Government
39% % 39
AAA 4%
SOEs SOEs 8% 8%
26% Total of 11.5 THB Trillion
Government Government
38%
BOT
BOT BOT
26%
2928 % % Total of 11.5 THB Trillion
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Mar 2018)
Financial Institution 3%
Contractu al Funds 22%
Bot 9%
NR 14%
Depository Corporation 15%
Depository Corporation NR 15% %
Insurance Company 28%
31
Total of 4.0 THB Trillion
Source : BOT (End of Feb 2018)
13
Public Debt Outstanding (as of Mar 2018) = 6.45 THB Trillion (41.04% of GDP) Components of Public Debt
Units : THB Mil.
4,271,805.78 873,223.21 918,898.16 381,046.94 9,194.81
1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF)
2. Government Debt (for FIDF) 3. Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt 4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 5. Autonomous Agency Debt
6,454,168.90
Public Debt Outstanding
Autonomous Agency Debt
0.14% 9,194.81 THB Mil. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
5.90
% 381,046.94 THB Mil.
Non-Financial
State Enterprise Debt
14.24
% 918,898.16 THB Mil.
GOVT Debt
GOVT Debt 66.19% 4,271,805.78 THB Mil.
(for FIDF)
13.53% 873,223.21 THB Mil.
Source : Information Technology Centre, PDMO
Portion of Public Debt Serviced by The Government Public Debt Components “All”
Public Debt Components “serviced by the government ”
6.45 THB Trillion
4.59 THB Trillion
Autonomous Agency Debt
0.14% 9,194.81 THB Mil.
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 5.90% 381,046.94 THB Mil.
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
serviced by the government
Autonomous Agency Debt
serviced by the government 0.02%
5.05%
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
14.24% 918,898.16 THB Mil.
GOVT Debt
GOVT Debt 66.19%
(for FIDF)
4,271,805.78 THB Mil.
13.53%
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
GOVT Debt 64.56%
serviced by the government
873,223.21 THB Mil.
1.52% As of Mar 2018 * Remark : Include external debt
14
100%
71%
Total Domestic Public Debt = 6.20 THB Trillion As of Mar 2018
Non-financial SOEs
400,000
financial SOEs
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
Autonomous-Agencies
SOE Debt (Serviced by GOVT) = 370,372 THB Mil.
300,000
Excluding Not serviced by GOVT 762,972 THB Mil. External SOE debt 175,795 THB Mil.
11% 7%
11,500
10,000
6,000 3,400 28,000 2,600
38,000
61,249
5,82910,400
25,000
71,000
9,120
64,528
0 TTM Fiscal Year
Next 5 yrs
FIDF 1
400,000
TTM Fiscal Year
74,000
40,000
56%
Next 5 yrs
6-10 yrs 10 yrs +
3,000
Budget Deficit
20,000 3,700 33
TKK
On-lending Loan
= 12yrs 10mths = 3.34% = 88: 12 = 7%
24,700
18,900
Maturity Profile
20,000
176,081
27,600
29,400
97,877
128,057
95,936
196,379
5,500
24,318
20,000
138,590
33,581
46%
38%
12,000
3,900
176,378
214,252
10,000
2,400
239,798
15,000
134,923
75,311
60,742
100,443
59,000
10,000
208,917
409,378
100,872 150,754
349,889
266,993
1,38166,610 35,577
Ext. Guaranteed Debt
(Excluding foreign debt 94,207 THB mil. ) 5,667
9,283
DPL
GOVT Direct Debt (exclude FIDF) = 4,177,599 THB Mil.
1,650 17,198 27,000
200,000
RW
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
TTM Fiscal Year
16%
43,055
7,682
300,000
T-Bill
9,000
37,989
165,902
400,000
0
= 3yrs 10mths = 3.54% = 86: 14 = 19% Maturity Profile
16,000
50,000
100,000
10 yrs +
44%
40,000
71,000
69,000
25,450
88,900
30,732 40,000
15,000 111,800
71,293
100,000
28,198
151,850
200,000
6-10 yrs
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
FIDF 3
GOVT Debt (for FIDF) = 873,223 THB Mil.
300,000
0
Maturity Profile
82%
200,000 100,000
= 3yrs 2mths = 2.82% = 86: 14 = 14%
Next 5 yrs
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOV’T Direct Debt Profile Dramatically
6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
ATM Lengthened Cost Lowered Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Note : Government Direct Debt = 4,043,892 THB Mil. (exclude FIDF and external debt)
As of Dec 2007
As of Mar 2018
ATM
Average-Time-to-Maturity LENGTHENED by 7yrs 7mths
12yrs 10mths
ATM
5yrs 3mths
Avg. cost
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 116 bps.
4.5%
(While ATM Lengthened by 7yrs 7mths)
Avg. cost
3.34% Floating
Well-Balanced Fixed/Floating Ratio (Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 85 : 15)
10%
Floating
Fixed
Fixed
90%
88%
54% 28%
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile (Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs is less than 50% of Total Debt)
Next 5 yrs
6-10 yrs
18% 10 yrs +
12%
46%
38% 16% Next 5 yrs
6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
15
Bond Market Cap.= 11 THB Trillion
GOVT Bond = 4.5 THB Trillion Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer
128%
118%
Baht Bond 1%
97%
73%
Corp Bond 27%
24%
SOEs Bond 7 % 869,549 THB Mil.
Asian Fin. Crisis
12%
BOT Bond 26%
2,969,489 THB Mil.
Maturity Profile vs Remark : Excluded P/N , TL
Govt Bond 39%
4,475,489 THB Mil. As of 30 Mar, 2018
*Source: BOT Exchange rate as of 31 MAr2017
Constantly Loan Bond Issuance Creates an Effective Government Bond Yield Curve % 5.00 4.50 4.00
Thailand’s Loan Bonds (LBs) weighting in international indices
On-the-run Benchmark Bond in FY2018 Tenor 3 5 7 10 15 20 30 50
Symbol LB22DA LB26DA LB316A LB366A -
GBI-EM Global JP Morgan
Remark Included in GBI Index Included in GBI Index
7.94%
Included in GBI Index Included in GBI Index -
iBoxx Asia ex Japan Markit
10.78%
AGBI Citi
4.56%
Last Update : End of March 2018, except iBoxx Asia as end of Feb
3.50
20
30
15
3.00 2.50
10 7
2.00
5 1.50
3
1.00 0.50
TTM
16
Source: ThaiBMA Government Bond Yield Curve (end of March 2018)
Benchmark Bond Objectives - 8 tenors of Benchmark Bond (3 5 7 10 15 20 30 and 50 years) build the benchmark yield curve as a reference rate for SOEs and private sectors - Main Government’s financing instrument - Build liquidity in the secondary market
50
Tier 1 > 100,000 THB Mil. in Size (96% of Trading Volume)
Total GOVT Bond = 37 Series (Since 1 Oct 2017 - 31 Mar 2018)
Tier 2 > 50,000 THB Mil. in Size
(3% of Trading Volume)
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
400,000
FY2018 Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market Tier 2 Tier 1
Tier 1: >100,000MB (18 Series)
350,000
96%
3% 1%
Outstanding size (THB Mil.)
300,000
0 250,000
0%
50
100
50%
100%
Tier 2: 50,000 – 100,000MB 10
200,000
(9 Series)
15 5 20
150,000
30
100,000 100,000 50
50,000
LB383A
LB396A
LB406A
LB244A
LB22NA
LB214A
LB19DA
LB676A
LB267A
LB24DA
LB233A
LB193A
LB198A
LB283A
LB191A
LB326A
LB213A
LB416A
LB27DA
ILB217A
LB466A
ILB283A
LB446A
LB366A
LB616A
LB22DA
LB316A
LB666A
LB206A
LB236A
LB26DA
LB226A
LB25DA
LB296A
LBA37DA
LB196A
LB21DA
0
FY 2018 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Source : ThaiBMA
GBI-EM Thailand – JPMCB0
FY2018 Secondary Trading Volume
10 of 10 most Trading Volume have outstanding size over 100 bil.
(Since 1 Oct 2017 – 31 Mar 2018)
Outstanding
Trading Volume
(THB Mil.)
(THB Mil.) Current Outstanding ≥ THB 100 Bil. Current Outstanding = THB 50-100 Bil. Current Outstanding ≤ THB 50 Bil.
11 GOVT Bond series are included in JPMCB Index 4 of which are on-the-run Benchmark Bond (5-10-15-20-yr)
400,000
400,000
FY 2018 on-the-run Benchmark Bond GBI-EM Thailand - JPMCB
350,000
350,000
Trading Volume
300,000
300,000
250,000
250,000
10
200,000
200,000
15 5
20
150,000
150,000
30 100,000 100,000
100,000
50
50,000
50,000
LB383A
LB396A
LB406A
LB416A
LB22NA
LB267A
LB24DA
LB244A
LB214A
LB19DA
LB233A
LB283A
LB666A
LB446A
LB326A
LBA37DA
LB616A
LB213A
LB27DA
LB198A
LB193A
ILB283A
LB191A
ILB217A
LB676A
LB296A
LB466A
LB236A
LB366A
LB25DA
LB316A
LB196A
LB21DA
LB206A
LB226A
LB26DA
0 LB22DA
0
Source : ThaiBMA
17
Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds Issuance by Bond Types THB Mil. 750,000
Saving Bonds
Amortizing Bonds
Inflation-Linked
Long-term (>10 yr)
Medium-term (5-10 yr)
Short-term (<5 yr)
Not included Bond switching 150,000 mb 32,570 40,000
7,367 69,073
20,141 54,000
7,000 89,379
31,577 65,000
500,000 82,234
50,872
3,814
29,338
315,552
38,000
293,000
40,000
269,862 61,000
152,861
136,641
140,733
134,000
22,730 148,900
151,471
250,000 221,110
223,850 266,139
259,826 215,000
309,009
274,999
306,000
202,000
98,850 47,000
96,000 51,605
46,000
11,000
0
F Remark : * Estimated from FY2018 Fund Raising Plan
Average Time to Maturity (ATM) VS Average Cost of Funding GOVT Debt and Public Debt ATM (Year)
13
Public Debt ATM
Gov’t Debt ATM*
12
11.05 Yr Gov’t Debt
11 10 9
9.71 Yr
8
Public Debt
Dec-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
May-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
7 Cost (%)
4.25 Public Debt Avg. Cost
Gov’t Debt Avg. Cost* 4
3.50% Gov’t Debt
3.75
3.47% Public Debt
3.5
Remark : * Include FIDF Debt and Foreign Debt
18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
3.25
Baht Bond Process
Who can apply?
Timeline For Baht Bond Application Process APPLICATION PROCESS: 3 rounds per year (9-mth issuance period for each round)
018 - 032
Baht Bondâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Maturity Profile (Classified by Issuers) Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
92,177 THB Mil.
THB Mil. 25,000
CLMV
EDL-Gen
7%
63
l.
58,362 THB Mil.
20
l.
%
MHBK
%
KEXIM WOORI
11
WOORI
KNM
9
%
CABEI 5,000
MOFL
EDL-Gen
3
%
MOFL
KEXIM MOFL
0
Today
37
%
%
KEXIM
MOFL
Credit Rating
(33,815 THB Mil.)
KEXIM
EDL-Gen
MOFL
46
& CGIF
NN2PC
HANA
10,000
International
(42,862 THB Mil.)
%
12
MOFL (Government) %
15
15,000
10
% (6,500 THB Mi ) (9,000 THB Mi ) IFIs ,
%
20,000
NN2PC
4
%
KEXIM MOFL
5
7
%
KEXIM
NN2PC
NN2PC MOFL EDL-Gen
1
%
MOFL
MOFL
6
%
%
2 2 %
MOFL
MOFL
3
%
MOFL
%
NN2PC
MOFL
Source : PDMO (As of March 30th, 2018)
19
2007 - 2018
Growth of Corporate Bond Outstanding has Accelerated
Baht Bond Outstanding
Total Outstanding 11,487,017 THB Mil.
Corporate Bond Outstanding % Share of Corporate Bond Outstanding to Bond Market Capitalization % Share of Baht Bond Outstanding to Bond Market Capitalization
Baht Bond 1%
34%
92,177 THB Mil (CGIF 2,780 THB Mil )
27% 26% 26%
3,0 00,00 0
94,177
Corp Bond 27%
THB Mil.
3,091,56429% THB Mil.
26% 26%
3,091,564 THB Mil
2,5 00,00 0
24%
20% 20% 20% 2,0 00,00 0
SOEs Bond 7%
20% 19% 18% 18%
19%
BOT Bond 26% 2,969,489 THB Mil.
1,5 00,00 0
14%
1,0 00,00 0
9%
500 ,000
GOVT Bond
4%
92,177
39%
THB Mil.
0
4,475,489 THB Mil.
1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9%
-1%
As of March
Source : ThaiBMA (As of
30th
March, 2018)
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by TTMs)
Average size per issuance:
1,923 THB Mil.
THB Mil. 1,500,000
Total Outstanding : Number of Corporate Bond: Average size per issuance:
37%
1,499 (Series) 1,923 THB Mil. Baht Bond Corporate Bond
28,725
1,000,000
2,882,291 THB Mil.
1,048,350.37
20% 15,500
500,000
13%
557,392.17
14,437
12%
13% 7,939
13,805 359,050.06
374,846.50
317,751.55
5% 11,772
TTM (Years)
132,723.50
0
20
Source : ThaiBMA (As of 30th March, 2018)
-
-
-
-
-
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
39%
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by Size)
are 11 Major Corporates
THB Mil.
Corporate Bond
200,000
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
No. of Issuers
A Rated Group (AAA, AA, A)
SCG CPALL
B Rated Group (BBB, BB)
≥ 50,001
11
39%
10,001 – 50,000
61
46%
≤ 10,000
157
15%
Total
229
100%
Unrated
Baht Bond 150,000
Baht Bond
Lao PDR (Gov’t)
BahtLaoBond PDR (EDL-Gen)
PTT BJC BAY
100,000
% Share of Outstanding
NN2PC
MOFL
(A-) 9,000 THB Mil.
(BBB+) 42,862 THB Mil.
50,000 50,000
EDL-Gen (BBB+) 6,500 THB Mil.
10,000 0
Issuer 1
Issuer 229
Source : ThaiBMA (As of 30th March, 2018)
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by Credit Rating) THB Mil.
Corporate Bond
200,000
Rating
AA Rated
SCG
A Rated
CPALL
BBB Rated
No. of Issuers
AAA
443,097
16%
14
AA
458,702
16%
27
1,450,628
50%
62
A
D Rated
BBB
418,992
15%
59
BB
38,612
1%
10
D
4,250
0%
1
Unrated
Baht Bond Baht Bond
Unrated
MOFL EDL-Gen
BAY
% Share of Outstanding
is A Rated
BB Rated
150,000
PTT
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
AAA Rated
50%
Total
68,010
2%
56
2,882,291
100%
229
NN2PC
100,000
MOFL (BBB+) 42,862 THB Mil.
NN2PC (A-) 9,000 THB Mil. 50,000 50,000
EDL-Gen (BBB+) 6,500 THB Mil.
10,000 0
AAA AA Source : ThaiBMA (As of
30th
March, 2018)
A
BBB
BB D
Unrated
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
21
Annual Capital Flow classified by GOVT & BOT Bond (2010 – 2018)
21,063 THB mil. (2018YTD)
THB Mil.
350,000
300,000
250,000
93,249
200,000
84,003
104,038
150,000
21,063 THB mil
.
23,052 100,000
196,463 129,454
117,144
50,000
45,963 29,642
0
-53,807
29,820 -8,757
15,548
0
-50,000
BOT Bond 29,820THB mil.
113,010
96,738
0
GOVT Bond -8,757 THB mil.
-71,124
-100,506 -37,994
-100,000
-150,000
2018 YTD
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in BOT Bond Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in GOVT Bond
2018 Weekly
As of 23th Mar,2018
Net Change in Non-resident Holding (YTD) BOT Bond vs GOVT Bond
(The past 13 weeks)
(1 USD/ THB) THB Mil.
Accumulative NR Holding = 21,063 THB mil.
THB Mil.
(Since 1 Jan – 30 Mar 2018)
150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000
BOT Bond
25,000
29,820 THB mil.
0
0
GOVT Bond
-25,000
-8,757 THB mil.
-50,000
1 USD = 31.215 THB
-75,000 -100,000
WK13
WK12
WK11
WK10
NR Holding in BOT Bond WK9
WK8
WK5
WK4
WK3
WK2
WK7
NR Holding in GOVT Bond
Foreign Exchange (USD/THB) WK1
-150,000
WK6
-125,000
As of 30th Mar, 2018
22
2018
Non-Resident Holding in THB Bond = 872,584 THB Mil.
Outstanding
Thai Bond Market Cap. = 11,487,017 THB Mil.
Non-Resident Holding Non-Res Hol di ng (THBi dent Million)
Issuer
Issuer
674,333
6.24%
197,291
1.718% 1.390%
118,177
1.28%
0
0.000% 1.28
0
0.00%
87
0.001% 0.01
666
0.01%
873
0.008%
692,906
7.53%
872,584
4,475,489
7.597% BOT Bond Outstanding 2,969,489
THB Mil.
Domestic Investors
Domestic Investors
39%
2,772,198 THB Mil.
3,801,156 THB Mil.
93.4
84.9
4,475,489 THB Mil.
THB Mil.
Non-Resident 197,291 THB Mil.
Non-Resident 674,333 THB Mil.
26% 2,969,489 THB Mil.
5.870%
574,063
GOVT Bond Outstanding
7%
% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap. (9,202,573 THB Million)
(THB Mi l l i on)
GOVT Bond GOVT Bond BOT Bond BOT Bond SOE Bond SOE Bond Foreign Bond Corp Bond Corp Bond TOTAL TOTAL
27%
% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap.
%
%
As of 30th Mar, 2018
Peers Comparison
Non-Resident Holding in Thai GOVT Bond is 674,333 THB mil. or 15.1% of Total GOVT Bond Outstanding
Percentage share of Non-resident Holding in Local Government Bond (Mar 2009 - Present)
50%
Indonesia
39.82% Dec 17
40%
Malaysia 29.23%
30%
Dec 17
Peak @ 19.1% (Aprâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; 13)
Thailand
20%
15.1%
As of 30th Mar,18
Korea 11.44% Sep 17
10%
Japan 11.21% Dec 17
2009
2010
Source : AsianBondsOnline, ThaiBMA
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Sep-17
Dec-17
Jun-17
Mar-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Mar-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Mar-15
Sep-14
Dec-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Mar-09
0%
2017 As of 30th Mar, 2018
23
Source: Public Sector Development Group, PDMO
Pro-active Debt Management
Develop Domestic Bond Market to be a Sustainable Source of Funding for the Stability of Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Financial System
Foster Strong and Effective Organization
3 PDMOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Strategies
Formulate sound public debt management policies and strategies as well as conduct, monitor and evaluate public debt management operations under the relevant legal framework and guidelines
Mission
Transparency, Discipline, Trustworthiness, Driving Social and Economic Development
Values
Professional in public debt management for sustainable development
Vision
Sunee Eksomtramate Executive Director
Ekaraj Khuankhunsathid Executive Director
Nantachod Samarnwong
Economist
Sittan Sathianphattanakool
Economist
Nakarin Prompat, Director
Government Bond Market Development Division
Paroche Hutachareon, Senior Expert
Policy and Planning Bureau
Kittipoom Ounjai
Economist
Wanthanee Phongam
Senior Economist
Angsuporn Suyangkul
Economist
Phimonphan Tanwattana
Economist
Sujitra Numthong, Director
Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division
Teeralak Sangsnit Executive Director
Anchana Wongsawang Acting Executive Director
Puttipong Kanna
Senior Economist
Sriarpa Ruangruchira
Senior Economist
Thitiphan Economist Pairojteerarach
Senior Economist
Oraporn Thomya, Director
Front Office Middle Office Back Office Support Offic
Siribha Satayanon Secretary
Office of the Secretary
Sirus Pussayanavin
Senior Economist
Chanikarn Chaiyasena
Economist
Nakarin Prompat, Acting Director
Financial Product Development Division
Payment Administration Bureau
Risk Management Group Public Infrastructure Project Management and Evaluation Bureau
International Bond Market Policy Division
Anchana Wongsawang Executive Director
Upama Jaihong Executive Director
Public Infrastructure Project Financing Bureau
Bond Market Development Bureau
Legal Advisory Group
Pimpen Ladpli
Sirasa Kanpittaya
Information Technology Center
Public Sector Development Group
Internal Audit Group
Ace Viboolcharern
Public Debt Advisor
Deputy Director-General
Prapas Kong-Ied
Director-General
Deputy Director-General
Jindarat Viriyataveekul Executive Director
Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Debt Management Bureau 2
Debt Management Bureau 1
Theeraj Athanavanich
Bond Market Advisor
For Further Information : Upama Jaihong
upama@pdmo.go.th
Executive Director of Bond Market Development Bureau
Paroche Hutachareon
paroche@pdmo.go.th
Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Oraporn Thomya
oraporn@pdmo.go.th
Director of International Bond Market Policy Division
Nakarin Prompat
nakarin@pdmo.go.th
Director of Financial Product Development Division
Sujitra Numthong
sujitra@pdmo.go.th
Director of Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division