KINGDOM OF THAILAND BOND MARKET FINANCING THAILAND’S FUTURE & CONNECTING ASEAN
Progress Update
» Committing to FY2018 Fund Raising Plan » GOVT Bond Auction Results » T-Bill Auction Results » GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q4/FY2018 » SOE Bond Auction Schedule Q4/FY2018 » PDMO Bond Calendar FY2018
Basic & Essentials
» Bond Market Capitalization » Bond Market Development Strategy » Public Debt Outstanding and Portfolio » Liquidity & Secondary Market Trading » Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds issuance » Bath Bond Process » Corporate Bond » Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond Q4/FY2018
PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE MINISTRY OF FINANCE KINGDOM OF THAILAND facebook.com/pdmo.go.th
Quick Facts Public Debt Outstanding (as of May 2018) 6,497,689 THB Mil. (40.78 % of GDP)
14
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved GOVT Direct Debt Profile Dramatically (as of May 2018) » Average-Time-to-Maturity (ATM) 13yrs » Average Cost 3.42% » Well-Balanced Fixed : Floating Ratio 88 : 12 » Well-Distributed Maturity Profile 34:18:48 (TTM<5 : 6-10 : >10yrs)
15
Bond Market Capitalization (as of June 2018) 12,000,917 THB Mil. (74% of GDP)
16
GOVT Bond 38% of total Bond Market outstanding BOT Bond 27% SOEs Bond 7% Corp Bond 27% Baht Bond 1%
Baht Bond Outstanding and its Market Share (as of June 2018) 91,177 THB Mil. (1% of Bond Outstanding)
19
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond (as of June 2018) » Annual Capital Flow (YTD) -6,764 THB Mil. GOVT Bond : 27,521 THB Mil.
22
BOT Bond :
» NR Holding in THB Bond GOVT Bond : BOT Bond : Others :
-34,285 THB Mil.
844,558 THB Mil. (7.04% of Thai Bond Market Cap.) 710,611 THB Mil. (15.5% of GOVT Bond Outstanding) 133,187 THB Mil. (4.1% of BOT Bond Outstanding) 760 THB Mil.
Progress Update
Total Fund Raising Plan FY2018 GOVT Bond Auction Results
T-Bills Auction Results GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q4/FY2018 SOE Bond Auction Schedule Q4/FY2018 PDMO Bond Calendar FY2019
1
2
2018 - 2022
750 – 1,150 THB Bil. per year
Government Funding Needs
1,124,006
New Borrowing 450 - 600 THB Bil.
2,XXXMB
3XXMB
4,XXXMB
38,XXXMB
Insurance Decree Substitution for foreign currency bond
86MB 59,XXXMB
5x,xxxMB
38,XXXMB
Per year
- Tentative -
THB mil.
57,251MB
162,922
On-Lending Supplementary Budget Deficit
100,000
(2018-2022) 58,940
200,666
344,084
300,000
250,000
250,000
GOVT
390,000
450,000
15,000
140,192
390,000
390,000
On-Lending
16,051MB
14,943
Water and Road Management Bond Switching
56,682
90,000
307,945
138,161
82,000
342,458
277,632
158,246
65,953 FY2016
101,800
37,900
109,000
-0-
FY2017
FY2018F
FY2019F
FY2020F
FY2021F
FY2022F
-0-
(2018-2022)
450,000
50,000
Rollover 350 - 550 THB Bil.
Per year
Deficit
390,000
189,xxx
52,000
149,209
231,000
453,367
114,286
112,708
286,104
FIDF 340,122
191,095
129,124
59,374
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
1,124,006 MB
57,251 100,000
Promissory Notes R-Bill, and Others Deficit
FY2018
GOVT Fund Raising Plan
On-Lending Supplementary Deficit
607,251 MB
New Borrowing
FY 2018
113,014
450,000
Benchmark Bond Auction Plan Tenors
5 Overallotment
Savings Bond Rollover SOEs Debt
10
16,051
Roll Over 516,755 MB
15
Rollover 342,458 Govt Debt
Remark :
LB22DA LB23DA** LB26DA LB28DA** LB316A LB326A*
Auction Size Total Issuance Times (Billion Baht) (Billion Baht)
24 – 50
6-7
180 – 210
12 – 18
6–7
90 – 110
11 – 15
5-6
70 – 90
Benchmark Bond
20
LB366A
10 – 13
5-6
60 – 80
5-10-15-20-30-50 yr
30
LB466A
10 – 13
5-6
60 – 80
580,000
50
LB676A
11 – 15
5-6
70 – 90
Note : * New Issue in Q4FY2018 ** Re-open in Q3FY2018
Rollover 158,246 FIDF Debt
By Bills
Symbol
By Instruments
1. Exclude external funding for both new borrowing and rollover debt with amount of 111,xxx THB mil 2. Exclude T-Bill rollover debt with amount of 80,000 THB mil
Government Bond Supply Keep Increasing Since 2009 Amount of Benchmark Bond Issuance to Actual Fund Raising (FY2009 – FY2018)
THB mil.
Others + Bond Switching
Benchmark Bond 1,250,000
6% 8% 1,000,000
17% -11% 750,000
37%
1%
2% 49% 500,000
10%
250,000
0
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
ALL FY2018 Benchmark Bond is approximately 580 Bil. - Tentative -
THB Mil.
500,000
Benchmark Bond Tenors
Symbol
Issuance Size
5-yr
LB22DA
180,000 – 210,000
10-yr
LB26DA
90,000 – 110,000
15-yr
LB316A
70,000 – 90,000
20-yr
LB366A
60,000 – 80,000
30-yr
LB466A
60,000 – 80,000
50-yr
LB676A
70,000 – 90,000
400,000
Total
580,000 Mil.
300,000
Total Benchmark Bonds
580,000 MB
Remark : Not include Bond Switching Set as Benchmark Bond since Q1FY2018
Set as Benchmark Bond since Q3FY2018
10
Set as Benchmark Bond since Q4FY2018
20
Top-up
15
30
Top-up
Top-up
Top-up
Top-up
5
200,000
15
Top-up
100,000
50
New-Issue
LB17OA LB183A LB183B LB191A LB193A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB206A LB213A LB214A ILB217A LB21DA LB226A LB22NA LB22DA LB22DA LB233A LB236A LB23DA LB23DA LB244A New-Issue LB24DA LB25DA LB267A LB26DA LB26DA LB27DA ILB283A LB283A LB28DA LB28DA LB296A New-Issue
5
5
10
15
20
-
30
-
-
LB666A LB676A LB676A
LB616A
LB466A LB466A
LB446A
LB366A LB366A -
LBA37DA LB383A LB396A LB406A LB416A
0
TTM
LB316A LB316A LB326A LB326A
10
-
50
3
FY2017 – Q3FY2018 GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Auction Schedule THB Mil.
FY2017
120,000
bps
FY2018
40
106,505 97,350
100,000
30
83,182
80,000
74,436
73,442
69,670
62,845
60,000
60,000
49,510
49,117
58,015
20
52,679 48,010
46,520
42,270
20,000
36,455
36,133
40,000
34,854
31,980
29,374 29,035 18,370 17,507
23,515
20,993 11,060
10,822
13,545
21,410 21,170 17,564 16,480
25,400 27,140 20,956
20,820 15,906
12,260
17,820
5,410
27,834
26,968 24,652
18,090
10
22,276 18,118 16,570
10,860
12,865 12,432
15,960
10,870 -
T-1= 00
0
-20,000 -10 -40,000 -60,000
-20
-80,000 -30 -100,000 -120,000
-40 Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Overallotment Spread [AAY- Yield(T-1)]
Oct-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Not Fully Allocated or Subscribed Max. (bps)
Min. (bps)
Mar-18
Apr18
May 18
June 18
Not Allocated
FY2017 – Q3FY2018 GOVT Bond Auction Results Classified by Tenor THB Mil. 120,000
Benchmark Bond 5 – 10yr 5-Yr
10-Yr
bps
Benchmark Bond 15 – 50yr 15-Yr
20-Yr
30-Yr
50-Yr
40
100,000 30 80,000
60,000
20
40,000 10 20,000
T-1= 00
0
-20,000 -10 -40,000
-60,000
-20
-80,000 -30 -100,000
-120,000
4
Short-term Benchmark Bond (<10 yrs) Long-term Benchmark Bond (>10 yrs)
Overallotment Spread [AAY- Yield(T-1)]
Not Fully Allocated or Subscribed Max. (bps) Min. (bps)
-40
FY2017-18
FY2018
FY2017
THB Mil.
Low Cost of Funding High Volume of Short-term Demand
T-Bill Auction Result
Basis Points
100,000
15.000
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
80,000
10.000 60,000
40,000
5.000
5.9 4.8
4.7 4.1
20,000 3.1
2.9
2.3
T-1= 0
2.5
0
0.4
-0.2
-1.4
-20,000
0.000
0.5 -1.0
-1.5 -3.0
-3.3 -4.6
-40,000 -5.0
0.6
0.2 -0.5 -0.5
-3.1
-4.8
-5.0
-2.7 -2.6
-5.000
-4.1 -4.9 -5.6
-6.0
-7.5
-60,000
-8.2
-8.3
-10.000
-9.0
-10.0
-80,000
-100,000
T-bill 1 month T-bill 3/6 months R-bill 3/6 months -13.2 Jul-17-14.6
-10.6
-9.9
Participated Amount (Excess Demand) Not Fully Allocated or Subscribed Spread [AAY-Yield(T-1)]
-15.000 Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17 Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
5
6 5,000
5,000
LB676A 50-yrs
12,000
20,000
Total
50,000
LB326A = LB676A = LB26DA = LB366A =
LB A = 2. LB22DA =
Maturity Date
Coupon
30,000
2561
17-Dec-2023
n/a
14,000
25-Jun-2032
3.775%
(Greenshoe Options) Re-open
Re-open Overallotment)
Re-open
Re-open 14 (Re-open MOF Outright PD
17-Dec-2028
n/a
35,000
24,000
5,000
(Re-open
17-Jun-2036
3.400%
3.600%
LB676A
2560 3) 30,000-36,000
17-Jun-2067
LB366A LB466A
17-Jun-2046
2.875%
)
133,000
-
26 Sep 2018
Total
-
20,000
19 Sep 2018
12 Sep 2018
12,000
5 Sep 2018
12,000
-
14,000
55,000
29 Aug 2018
22 Aug 2018
15 Aug 2018
-
5,000
LB466A 30-yrs
8 Aug 2018
12,000
LB366A 20-yrs
-
14,000
LB326A 15-yrs
1 Aug 2018
20,000
15,000
LB28DA 10-yrs
-
50,000
LB23DA 5-yrs
25 Jul 2018
18 Jul 2018
11 Jul 2018
4 Jul 2018
Auction Date
Bond Auction Schedule for Q2/FY2016 Q4/FY2018 GOVTGovernment Bond Auction Schedule (Jul â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Sep 18)
7
Source : Debt Management Bureau 2
Quarter 3 Week-Date Month Wk. 40 2 3 5 Wk. 41 9 10 12 Wk. 42 16 Jul 17 19 Wk. 43 23 24 26 Wk. 44 30 31 2 Wk. 45 6 7 9 Wk. 46 13 14 Aug Wk. 47 16 20 21 23 Wk. 48 27 28 30 Wk. 49 3 4 6 Wk. 50 10 11 Sep Wk. 51 13 17 18 20 Wk. 52 24 25 27 รวม
14,000
2,940
7,000 20,000
SRT GG
20,000
BMTA GG 2,940
14,000
MPC
1,891 SRT GG
5,000
SRT GG
Not Guaranteed by GOVT Gauranteed and Serviced by GOVT
0 72,870
NG : Non Guarantee
Sources
8,280
7,000
-
S
MPC
A
-
Next 5 working days
Auction Bond
Next 5 working days (since pricing date)
Syndication Bond
e-Bidding Bond
Auction Condition
6,000
Date
Thursday
Tuesday
Monday
0
0
2,940 0 85,870
0 13,000
59,000
0
6,000
2,000
6,280
2,000
0
6,000
1,650
Grand total (Thai Mil.)
0
0
59,000 2,940
0
6,000
0
0
0 MEA NG 6,000
2,000
2,000
0
5000
3,000
2,000
NHA GG
5,000
0
0
0
1,000
MPC
Total
0
BAAC GG
20
1,650
15
0
Bond (year) 10
0
7 0
5 NHA GG 0
Total
6,280
1,650
1,650
BMTA GG
5
6,280 NHA GG
SRT GG
3
GG : Gov. Guarantee
26,000
MPC
25,000
BAAC GG
EXAT NG 1,000
Term/Loan (year) 1 2
BAAC GG
0.75
BAAC GG
0.5
Q4/FY2018 SOE Bond Auction Schedule (Jul – Sep 18)
Quarter 2
Quarter 1
8
Mar 2018
Feb 2018
Jan 2018
Dec 2017
Nov 2017
Oct 2017
27
13
12
26
6
5
20
27
26
19
20
19
13
30
29
12
23
22
6
16
15
5
9
2
1
8
26
25
New Year's Day
19
12
11
18
5
4
Substitution Day for Constitiution Day
28
27
14
13
21
7
6
20
31
30
24
23
Substitution Day for Chulalongkorn Memorial Day
17
10
9
16
3
2
Mon
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
Substitution Day for New Year's Day
The birthday of His Majesty the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej
Tue
28
21
14
7
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB676A (50Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5Y) : 30,000MB
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 15,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5y) : 25,000 MB LB676A (50y) : 13,000 MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5Y) : 40,000MB
Auction LB676A (50Y) : 14,000MB NEW 50Y
Auction LB316A (15Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 14,000MB
Wed
29
22
15
8
1
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
Thu
Substitution Day for Makha Bucha Day
MOF Outright PD Committee : Quarterly PD's Evalution
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
MOF Outright PD Committee
Royal Cremation of His Majesty the Late King
PDMO Bond Calendar FY 2018
30
23
16
9
2
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
Last day of submission for Baht Bond Application (2/2017)
Baht Bond 3/2017 special
His Majesty the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej Memorial Day
Fri
31
24
17
10
3
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
1
25
18
11
4
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
Sat Sun
Sep 2018
Aug 2018
Jul 2018
Jun 2018
May 2018
Apr 2018
9
18
25
24
11
10
17
4
3
14
13
28
7
6
21
31
30
27
24
23
20
17
16
Substitution Day for H.M. The Queen's Birthday
10
12
11
3
5
4
9
29
28
2
22
21
26
15
14
25
8
7
19
1
30
18
24
17
23
Subsitution Day for Songkarn Day
10
9
16
3
2
Visakha Bucha Day
MOF Outright PD Committee : Quarterly PD's Evalution
Last Day of submission for MOF Outright PD's Application
National *Labour Day
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
25
18
11
4
Auction LB28DA (10Y) : 20,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB326A (15Y) : 14,000MB
Auction LB23DA (5y) : 50,000 MB LB466A (30y) : 5,000 MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 12,000MB
Auction LB28DA (10y) : 15,000 MB LB676A (50y) : 5,000 MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB366A (20Y) : 13,000MB
Auction LB26DA (10Y) : 15,000MB
Auction LB676A (50Y) : 14,000MB
Auction LB326A (15Y) : 15,000MB
Auction LB22DA (5Y) : 30,000MB
Auction LB466A (30Y) : 13,000MB
27
20
13
6
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
26
19
12
5
Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day
Annual PDMO-Market Dialogue + MOF Awards
MOF Outright PD Committee : Final Review
Asarnha Bucha Day
Quarterly PD Market Dialogue
Songkran Festival Day
Chakri Memorial Day
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
28
21
14
7
30
23
16
9
2
26
19
12
5
29
22
15
8
1
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
Remark : Royal Ploughing Ceremony Day- waiting for an annoucement This schedule is subject to change without prior notice.
28
21
14
7
31
24
17
10
3
27
20
13
6
29
22
15
8
1
25
18
11
4
27
20
13
6
10
Basic & Essentials Bond Market Capitalization Bond Market Development Strategy Public Debt Outstanding and Portfolio Liquidity & Secondary Market Trading Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds Issuance Bath Bond Process Corporate Bond
Non-Resident Holding in Domestic Bond
11
Peers Comparison
BOND market capitalization Source : Asian Bond online (ADB) % : GDP
BOND mkt. cap : GDP
250%
Government BOND Yield Curve
% Yield
210%
10 Public Sector (GOVT + CB + SOE) Private Sector
200%
9 150%
125%
Indonesia
98%
100%
8
73%
68%
50%
Philippines 7
23%
Vietnam
6
0%
As of March 30th ,2018
5
Malaysia
Share of PUBLIC sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Bond to Total BOND mkt. cap.
China 4
USD Billions 300
% : BOND mkt. cap.
85%
2.80%
3
94%
100%
3.62%
3.71%
USA Singapore
Thailand
80%
2.16%
61% 53%
GOVT 50%
Korea
2
73%
143
1
150
USD Billions
Japan
SOE 27
160 49
USD Billions
86
BOT 95
Philippines
Thailand
175
182
Singapore
Malaysia
0
0% Indonesia
Te n o r
-1
0 Vietnam
5 yr As of July
As of March 30th ,2018
10th
10 yr
50 yr
30 yr
,2018
Government BOND Yield Matrix
ASEAN & Peers
As of July 10th ,2018
1 yr
2 yr
3 yr
4 yr
5 yr
6 yr
7 yr
8 yr
9 yr
10 yr
15 yr
20 yr
25 yr
30 yr
35 yr
40 yr
Japan
-0.12
-0.12
-0.11
-0.11
-0.11
-0.08
-0.06
-0.03
0.01
0.04
0.25
0.48
0.59
0.69
0.75
0.81
Korea
1.81
1.99
2.07
2.27
2.31
2.36
2.40
2.44
2.48
2.53
2.53
2.53
2.52
2.51
2.50
Singapore
1.78
1.88
1.97
2.07
2.16
2.21
2.27
2.32
2.38
2.43
2.65
2.67
2.72
2.77
USA
2.32
2.56
2.66
2.70
2.74
2.77
2.81
2.82
2.83
2.84
2.87
2.89
2.92
2.95
Thailand
1.56
1.72
1.85
2.03
2.16
2.30
2.43
2.55
2.69
2.80
3.17
3.31
3.50
3.62
China
3.06
3.18
3.29
3.32
3.34
3.44
3.54
3.54
3.54
3.54
3.82
3.86
3.93
4.00
Malaysia
3.35
3.46
3.57
3.66
3.75
3.85
3.95
4.00
4.05
4.09
4.55
4.80
4.86
4.91
Vietnam
2.32
2.75
3.12
3.38
3.65
3.86
4.07
4.33
4.59
4.84
5.19
5.73
5.89
6.06
Philippines
4.61
4.81
4.93
5.66
5.65
5.96
6.27
6.30
6.32
6.35
6.86
7.36
7.54
Indonesia
7.11
7.20
7.30
7.34
7.38
7.38
7.37
7.37
7.37
7.36
7.80
7.97
8.46
Brunei Cambodia Laos Myanmar
12
below 1%
2.01% - 3%
over 4%
1.01% - 2%
3.01% - 4%
no data
8.46
45 yr
50 yr
2.49
2.48
2.47
3.63
3.63
3.65
3.71
4.01
4.01
4.01
4.02
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN
Domestic Bond Market in Transition
Funding Infrastructure Investment Connecting ASEAN (2013 – 2018) FY2018 Highlights
Market Deepening Oriented (2010 - 2012)
Sustainable Source of Fund
Water Decree (350,000 THB Mil.)
Full Funding Capacity : 1,200,000 THB Mil.
Thai Khem Khang (350,000 THB Mil.)
1,900,000 THB Mil. Long-Term Infrastructure Inv’t
Baht Bond (Foreign Issuers Bond)
Baht Bond (CLMV) Credit Guarantee Investment Facility (CGIF)
Regional Connectivity / AEC
Debt Folio Enhancement
Foreign Currency Bond (Plan) ATM Lengthened
Well-Distributed Investor Base
Cost Lowered
Well-Balanced Fixed-Floating Ratio
FIDF Decree Passed = 70,000 THB Mil. Fiscal Space
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile / Bond Switching Bond Switching (Multiple-to-Multiple)
Appointed 14 MOF-Outright PD
Market Infrastructure
Strengthening PD system
Activated Public Debt Management Fund
(Exclusivity, League Table, Greenshoes Option)
STRIPS Bond
Innovation / Product Development
Inaugural 10-yr Inflation-Linked Bond (10-yr)
Electronic Bond Switching
Long-term Fixed Promissory Notes (25-35-45-yr)
Saving Bond Online
Electronic Retail Savings Bond (3-5-yr)
25-yr Back-End Amortized Bond Annual PDMO Market Dialogue
Annual PDMO Market Dialogue
Market Consultation
Quarterly PDMO one-on-group MOF Outright PD Dialogue
Quarterly PDMO one-on-one PD Dialogue
50
30
Building Yield Curve / Enhancing Liquidity
15 10 7 5 3
Monthly PDMO one-on-one MOF Outright PD Dialogue
Liquidity-Oriented
300,000 MB
20
8 Tenors of Benchmark Bonds
150,000 MB Outstanding Amount
3 5 7
10
15
20
30
50
Equilibrium of Domestic Bond Market Issuers
• 72 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are issued by Government, Bank of Thailand and State-Owned Enterprises
Credit Rating
• 99 percent of Thailand’s debt securities are classified as Investment Grade
Investors
• Thailand’s government debt securities are held by a wide group of investor types
Domestic Bond Market (Classified by Issuers)
Domestic Bond Market (Classified by Credit Rating)
Baht Bond 1%
1% Non-rated
Mutual
Household Funds 4% 2%
A Government
27%
Financial Institution 3%
A % 12
Corp Bond
38% BOT
12%
27% Total of 11.5 THB Trillion
Source : ThaiBMA (End of June 2018)
Government Government
Government
39% % 39
AAA 4%
SOEs SOEs 8% 8%
Government Debt Securities (Classified by Types of Investors)
38%
BOT
BOT BOT
26%
2928 % % Total of 11.5 THB Trillion
Source : ThaiBMA (End of Mar 2018)
Non- profit organization 1%
Other 1%
Contractual Funds 22%
Bot 8%
NR 14%
Depository Corporation 15%
Depository Corporation NR
Insurance Company 28%
31%
16%
Total of 4.4 THB Trillion
Source : BOT (End of May 2018)
13
Public Debt Outstanding (as of May 2018) = 6.49 THB Trillion (40.78% of GDP) Components of Public Debt
Units : THB Mil.
4,337,655.83 864,437.21 907,969.04 378,871.31 8,756.18
1. Government Debt (excluded FIDF) 2. Government Debt (for FIDF) 3. Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt 4. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 5. Autonomous Agency Debt
6,497,688.57
Public Debt Outstanding
Autonomous Agency Debt
0.13% 8,756.18 THB Mil. Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
5.83
% 378,871.31 THB Mil.
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
13.97
% 907,969.04 THB Mil.
GOVT Debt
GOVT Debt 66.76% 4,337,655.83 THB Mil.
(for FIDF)
13.30% 864,437.21 THB Mil.
Source : Information Technology Centre, PDMO
Portion of Public Debt Serviced by The Government Public Debt Components “All”
Public Debt Components “serviced by the government ”
6.49 THB Trillion
4.64 THB Trillion
Autonomous Agency Debt
0.13% 8,756.18 THB Mil.
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt 5.83% 378,871.31 THB Mil.
Special Financial Institutions Guaranteed Debt
serviced by the government
Autonomous Agency Debt
serviced by the government 0.02%
4.98%
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
13.97% 907,969.04 THB Mil.
GOVT Debt
GOVT Debt 66.76%
(for FIDF)
4,337,654.83 THB Mil.
13.30%
Non-Financial State Enterprise Debt
GOVT Debt 65.05%
serviced by the government
864,437.21 THB Mil.
1.49% As of May 2018 * Remark : Include external debt
14
100%
71%
Total Domestic Public Debt = 6.20 THB Trillion As of Mar 2018
Non-financial SOEs
400,000
financial SOEs
Autonomous-Agencies
SOE Debt (Serviced by GOVT) = 368,166 THB Mil.
300,000
Excluding Not serviced by GOVT 927,430 THB Mil. (External + Internal)
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
200,000
13% 7%
11,500
38,000
7,000
25,000
61,148
6,000 3,400 28,000 2,600
10,000
9,0875,82910,400 64,000
0 TTM Fiscal Year
Next 5 yrs
FIDF 1
400,000
28,198
74,000
25,450
40,000
71,000
69,000
88,900
15,732 25,000
30,000 111,800
62,507
100,000
54%
10 yrs +
= 3yrs 10mths = 3.57% = 87: 13 = 15% Maturity Profile
46%
55,000
151,850
200,000
6-10 yrs
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
FIDF 3
GOVT Debt (for FIDF) = 864,437 THB Mil.
300,000
0
Maturity Profile
80% 62,456
100,000
= 3yrs 1mths = 2.84% = 89: 11 = 11%
16,000
TTM Fiscal Year
Next 5 yrs
6-10 yrs 10 yrs +
3,000 50,000
Budget Deficit
20,000 9,000
RW
DPL
Ext. Guaranteed Debt
(Excluding foreign debt 94,484 THB mil. )
= 13yrs = 3.42% = 88: 12 = 7%
409,378
Maturity Profile
20,000 10,000
176,081
TTM Fiscal Year
52,488
27,600
29,400
128,057
108,097
95,936
196,379
5,500
24,318
20,000
138,590
71,046
34%
12,000
15,000
2,400
191,905
214,252
59,000
155,113
100,443
75,311
15,000
260,474
10,000 264,153
100,872 158,254
ATM Avg. Cost Fixed : Floating Callable
24,700
165,902
7,682
312,662
5,667
60,742
0
204,220
27,000
1,381 53,289 31,577
100,000
On-lending Loan
18,900 1,133 19,070
200,000
TKK
GOVT Direct Debt (exclude FIDF) = 4,243,170 THB Mil.
4,790 33 36,473
300,000
T-Bill
3,900
400,000
Next 5 yrs
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Well-Developed Bond Market Improved
GOV’T Direct Debt Profile Dramatically
48% 18% 6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
ATM Lengthened Cost Lowered Well-Balanced Fixed-Float Ratio Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
Note : Government Direct Debt = 4,043,892 THB Mil. (exclude FIDF and external debt)
As of Dec 2007
ATM
Average-Time-to-Maturity LENGTHENED by 7yrs 9mths
13yrs
ATM
5yrs 3mths
Avg. cost
Avg. Cost LOWERED by 108 bps.
4.5%
(While ATM Lengthened by 7yrs 9mths)
Avg. cost
3.42% Floating
Well-Balanced Fixed/Floating Ratio (Target : Fixed/Float ratio = 85 : 15)
Next 5 yrs
Floating Fixed
90%
88%
28%
Well-Distributed Maturity Profile
10%
Fixed
54% (Maturing Debt in the next 5 yrs is less than 50% of Total Debt)
As of May 2018
6-10 yrs
34% 18% 10 yrs +
Next 5 yrs
12%
48% 18% 6-10 yrs
10 yrs +
15
Bond Market Cap.= 11 THB Trillion
GOVT Bond = 4.6 THB Trillion Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer
128%
114%
Baht Bond 1%
97%
74%
Corp Bond 27%
24%
SOEs Bond 7 % 883,899 THB Mil.
Asian Fin. Crisis
12%
BOT Bond 27%
3,267,808 THB Mil.
Maturity Profile vs Remark : Excluded P/N , TL
Govt Bond 38%
4,597,848 THB Mil. As of 29 June, 2018
*Source: BOT Exchange rate as of 31 MAr2017
Constantly Loan Bond Issuance Creates an Effective Government Bond Yield Curve % 5.00 4.50 4.00
Thailand’s Loan Bonds (LBs) weighting in international indices
On-the-run Benchmark Bond in FY2018
Tenor 3 5 7 10 15 20 30 50
GBI-EM Global JP Morgan
Symbol LB326A LB366A
Remark Included in GBI Index Included in GBI Index
LB466A LB676A
Included in GBI Index Included in GBI Index
7.94%
3.50
iBoxx Asia ex Japan Markit
10.78%
AGBI Citi
4.56%
Last Update : End of March 2018, except iBoxx Asia as end of Feb
30 20
15
3.00
10 2.50
7 5
2.00
3 1.50
Benchmark Bond Objectives - 8 tenors of Benchmark Bond (3 5 7 10 15 20 30 and 50 years) build the benchmark yield curve as a reference rate for SOEs and private sectors - Main Government’s financing instrument - Build liquidity in the secondary market
1.00 0.50
TTM
16
Source: ThaiBMA Government Bond Yield Curve (end of June 2018)
50
Tier 1 > 100,000 THB Mil. in Size (96% of Trading Volume)
Total GOVT Bond = 37 Series (Since 1 Oct 2017 - 30 Jun 2018)
Tier 2 > 50,000 THB Mil. in Size
(3% of Trading Volume)
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
FY2018 Market Share of Trading Volume in Secondary Market Tier 2 Tier 1
Tier 1: >100,000MB
350,000
(19 Series)
96%
300,000
Outstanding size (THB Mil.)
0 250,000
3% 1%
50
100
10
5 200,000
Tier 2: 50,000 – 100,000MB
20
(9 Series)
30
150,000
15
100,000 100,000 50 50,000
LB383A
LB396A
LB406A
LB244A
LB22NA
LB214A
LB19DA
LB267A
LB24DA
LB233A
LB676A
LB193A
LB198A
LB191A
LB283A
LB213A
LB416A
LB27DA
ILB217A
LB326A
ILB283A
LB206A
LB466A
LB446A
LB366A
LB616A
LB666A
LB316A
LB236A
LB196A
LB226A
LB25DA
LB22DA
LB296A
LBA37DA
LB26DA
LB21DA
0
FY 2018 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
Source : ThaiBMA
GBI-EM Thailand – JPMCB0
FY2018 Secondary Trading Volume
10 of 10 most Trading Volume have outstanding size over 100 bil.
(Since 1 Oct 2017 – 30 June 2018)
Outstanding
Trading Volume
(THB Mil.)
(THB Mil.)
600,000
600,000 Current Outstanding ≥ THB 100 Bil. Current Outstanding = THB 50-100 Bil. Current Outstanding ≤ THB 50 Bil.
11 GOVT Bond series are included in JPMCB Index 4 of which are on-the-run Benchmark Bond (5-10-15-20-yr)
FY 2018 on-the-run Benchmark Bond
500,000
500,000
GBI-EM Thailand - JPMCB Trading Volume
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
10 5 200,000
200,000
20 30
15 100,000
100,000
100,000
50
LB383A
LB396A
LB406A
LB416A
LB214A
LB22NA
LB244A
LB233A
LB19DA
LB24DA
LB283A
LB267A
LB446A
LB666A
LB616A
LBA37DA
LB213A
LB27DA
LB198A
LB193A
ILB283A
LB191A
LB676A
ILB217A
LB296A
LB466A
LB236A
LB366A
LB326A
LB25DA
LB316A
LB196A
LB206A
LB21DA
LB226A
LB22DA
0
LB26DA
0
Source : ThaiBMA
17
Historical Changes in Thai Government Bonds Issuance by Bond Types THB Mil. 750,000
Saving Bonds
Amortizing Bonds
Inflation-Linked
Long-term (>10 yr)
Medium-term (5-10 yr)
Short-term (<5 yr)
Not included Bond switching 150,000 mb 32,570 40,000
7,367 69,073
20,141 54,000
7,000 89,379
31,577 65,000
500,000 82,234
50,872
3,814
29,338
315,552
38,000
293,000
40,000
269,862 61,000
152,861
136,641
140,733
134,000
22,730 148,900
151,471
250,000 221,110
223,850 266,139
259,826 215,000
309,009
274,999
306,000
202,000
98,850 47,000
96,000 51,605
46,000
11,000
0
F Remark : * Estimated from FY2018 Fund Raising Plan
Average Time to Maturity (ATM) VS Average Cost of Funding GOVT Debt and Public Debt ATM (Year)
13 Public Debt ATM
Gov’t Debt ATM*
12
11.28 Yr Gov’t Debt
11 10 9
9.96 Yr
8
Public Debt
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Jan-18
Feb-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
Apr-17
May-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
7 Cost (%)
4.25 Public Debt Avg. Cost
Gov’t Debt Avg. Cost* 4
3.42% Gov’t Debt
3.75
3.41% Public Debt
3.5
Remark : * Include FIDF Debt and Foreign Debt
18
May-18
Apr-18
Mar-18
Jan-18
Feb-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
May-17
Apr-17
Mar-17
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
3.25
Baht Bond Process
Who can apply?
Timeline For Baht Bond Application Process APPLICATION PROCESS: 3 rounds per year (9-mth issuance period for each round)
2018 - 2032
Baht Bondâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Maturity Profile (Classified by Issuers) Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance
91,177 THB Mil.
THB Mil. 25,000
CLMV
EDL-Gen
7%
63
l.
l.
19
%
15,000
MHBK
MOFL (Government)
International
46
& CGIF
KEXIM
WOORI
11
%
HANA
10,000
WOORI
EDL-GEN
9
KNM
%
KEXIM CABEI
5,000 MOFL MOFL
MOFL
EDL-GEN
3
%
MOFL
KEXIM MOFL
0
Today
%
(33,815 THB Mil.)
NN2PC
KEXIM
37
(41,862 THB Mil.)
%
%
Credit Rating
%
15
12
10
% (6,500 THB Mi ) (9,000 THB Mi ) IFIs ,
%
57,362 THB Mil.
20,000
NN2PC
4
%
KEXIM MOFL
5
7
%
KEXIM
6
%
%
NN2PC
NN2PC MOFL EDL-GEN
2
%
MOFL MOFL
2 2 %
MOFL
MOFL
%
3
%
MOFL NN2PC
MOFL
Source : PDMO (As of June 29th, 2018)
19
2007 - 2018
Growth of Corporate Bond Outstanding has Accelerated
Baht Bond Outstanding
Total Outstanding 12,000,917 THB Mil.
Corporate Bond Outstanding
% Share of Corporate Bond Outstanding to Bond Market Capitalization % Share of Baht Bond Outstanding to Bond Market Capitalization
Baht Bond 1% 91,177 THB Mil (CGIF 2,780 THB Mil )
27% 26%
3,000, 000
26%
34%
Corp Bond 27% 3,160,186 THB Mil
3,160,186 THB Mil. 29%
26% 26%
SOEs Bond 7%
2,500, 000
24%
20% 20% 20% 2,000, 000
19% 18% 18%
20% 19%
BOT Bond 27% 3,267,808 THB Mil.
1,500, 000
14%
1,000, 000 9%
500,00 0 4%
91,177
GOVT Bond
THB Mil.
0
1.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1%
38%
4,597,848 THB Mil.
-1%
As of March
Source : ThaiBMA (As of June 29th, 2018)
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by TTMs)
Average size per issuance:
1,924 THB Mil.
THB Mil.
51%
Total Outstanding : Number of Corporate Bond:
35,276
1,500,000
Average size per issuance:
1,463,458.73
2,950,874 THB Mil. 1,534 (Series) 1,924 THB Mil. Baht Bond Corporate Bond
1,000,000
12%
500,000
8% 17,066
12%
6,384
12,741
343,080.90
338,074.35
12% 9,830
358,186.60
5% 9,881
204,522.47
152,373.50
TTM (Years)
20
0
Source : ThaiBMA (As of June 29th, 2018)
-
-
-
-
-
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
39%
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by Size)
are 12 Major Corporates
THB Mil. 200,000
Corporate Bond
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
No. of Issuers
A Rated Group (AAA, AA, A)
SCG CPALL
B Rated Group (BBB, BB)
≥ 50,001
12
39%
10,001 – 50,000
60
45%
≤ 10,000
165
16%
Total
237
100%
Unrated
Baht Bond Baht Bond
150,000
MOFL (BBB+)
BahtEDL-Gen Bond(BBB+)
PTT BJC BAY
% Share of Outstanding
NN2PC (A-)
100,000
NN2PC
MOFL (BBB+) 41,862 THB Mil.
(A-) 9,000 THB Mil.
50,000 50,000
EDL-Gen (BBB+) 6,500 THB Mil.
10,000 0
Issuer 1
Issuer 237
Source : ThaiBMA (As of June 29th, 2018)
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
Corporate Bond & Baht Bond Outstanding (Classified by Credit Rating) THB Mil.
Corporate Bond
200,000
Rating
AA Rated
SCG
A Rated
CPALL
BBB Rated
No. of Issuers
AAA
436,708
15%
13
AA
460,203
16%
27
1,539,721
52%
72
A
D Rated
BBB
404,408
14%
59
BB
42,852
1%
12
D
4,150
0%
1
Unrated
Baht Bond Baht Bond
Unrated
MOFL EDL-Gen
BAY
% Share of Outstanding
is A Rated
BB Rated
150,000
PTT
Outstanding (THB Mil.)
AAA Rated
52%
Total
62,833
2%
53
2,950,874
100%
237
NN2PC
100,000
MOFL (BBB+) 41,862 THB Mil.
NN2PC (A-) 9,000 THB Mil.
50,000 50,000
EDL-Gen (BBB+) 6,500 THB Mil.
10,000 0
A
AAA AA
Source : ThaiBMA (As of
June 29th,
2018)
BBB
BB D
Unrated
Remark : Excluded Commercial Papers (less than 1 year at issue)
21
Annual Capital Flow classified by GOVT & BOT Bond (2010 – 2018)
-6,764 THB mil. (2018YTD)
THB Mil.
350,000
300,000
250,000
93,249
200,000
84,003
104,038
150,000
-6,764 THB mil
.
23,052 100,000
196,463 129,454
117,144
50,000
0
45,963 29,642
27,521
15,548
0
0
-34,285
-53,807 -50,000
GOVT Bond 27,521 THB mil.
113,010
96,738
-71,124
-100,506
BOT Bond -34,285 THB mil. -37,994
-100,000
-150,000
2018 YTD
Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in BOT Bond Non-resident Net Buy/Sell in GOVT Bond
2018 Weekly
As of 29th Jun,2018
Net Change in Non-resident Holding (YTD) BOT Bond vs GOVT Bond
(The past 26 weeks)
(1 USD/ THB) THB Mil.
Accumulative NR Holding = -6,764 THB mil.
THB Mil.
(Since 1 Jan – 29 June 2018)
150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000
GOVT Bond 50,000
27,521 THB mil. 25,000
0
1 USD = 33.166 THB
0
BOT Bond
-25,000
-34,285 THB mil.
-50,000 -75,000 -100,000
WK26
WK25
WK24
WK23
WK22
WK21
WK20
WK19
WK18
NR Holding in BOT Bond WK17
WK16
WK15
WK14
WK13
WK9
WK10
WK8
WK7
WK6
WK5
WK4
WK3
WK2
WK12
NR Holding in GOVT Bond
Foreign Exchange (USD/THB) WK1
-150,000
WK11
-125,000
As of 29th Jun, 2018
22
2018
Outstanding
Non-Resident Holding in THB Bond = 844,558 THB Mil.
Thai Bond Market Cap. = 12,001,917 THB Mil.
27%
7%
27% 3,267,808 THB Mil.
Non-Resident Holding Non-Res Hol di ng (THBi dent Million)
Issuer
Issuer
% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap. (9,202,573 THB Million)
(THB Mi l l i on)
GOVT Bond GOVT Bond BOT Bond BOT Bond SOE Bond SOE Bond Foreign Bond Corp Bond Corp Bond TOTAL TOTAL
710,611
5.921%
574,063
6.24%
133,187
1.110% 1.390%
118,177
1.28%
0
0.000% 1.28
0
0.00%
84
0.001% 0.01
666
0.01%
676
0.006%
692,906
7.53%
844,558
GOVT Bond Outstanding 4,597,848
7.038% BOT Bond Outstanding 3,267,808
THB Mil.
Domestic Investors
Domestic Investors 3,134,621 THB Mil.
3,887,237 THB Mil.
95.9
84.5
4,597,848 THB Mil.
THB Mil.
Non-Resident 133,187 THB Mil.
Non-Resident 710,611 THB Mil.
38%
% Share of Thai Bond Market Cap.
%
%
As of 29th June,2018
Peers Comparison 50%
Non-Resident Holding in Thai GOVT Bond is 710,611 THB mil. or 15.5% of Total GOVT Bond Outstanding
Percentage share of Non-resident Holding in Local Government Bond (Mar 2009 - Present)
Indonesia
39.31%
40%
Mar 17
Malaysia 29.23%
30%
Dec 17
Thailand
15.5%
20%
As of 29th June,18
Korea 11.21%
10%
Dec 17
Japan 11.21% Dec 17
2010
Source : AsianBondsOnline, ThaiBMA
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
2009
Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17
Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16
0%
2016
2017
2018 As of 29th Jun,2018
23
Source: Public Sector Development Group, PDMO
Pro-active Debt Management
Develop Domestic Bond Market to be a Sustainable Source of Funding for the Stability of Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Financial System
Foster Strong and Effective Organization
3 PDMOâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Strategies
Formulate sound public debt management policies and strategies as well as conduct, monitor and evaluate public debt management operations under the relevant legal framework and guidelines
Mission
Transparency, Discipline, Trustworthiness, Driving Social and Economic Development
Values
Professional in public debt management for sustainable development
Vision
Sunee Eksomtramate Executive Director
Ekaraj Khuankhunsathid Executive Director
Sittan Sathianphattanakool
Economist
Nakarin Prompat, Director
Government Bond Market Development Division
Paroche Hutachareon, Senior Expert
Policy and Planning Bureau
Kittipoom Ounjai
Economist
Wanthanee Phongam
Senior Economist
Angsuporn Suyangkul
Economist
Sujitra Numthong, Director
Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division
Teeralak Sangsnit Executive Director
Anchana Wongsawang Acting Executive Director
Puttipong Kanna
Economist
Sriarpa Ruangruchira
Senior Economist
Thitiphan Economist Pairojteerarach
Senior Economist
Oraporn Thomya, Director
Front Office Middle Office Back Office Support Offic
Siribha Satayanon Secretary
Office of the Secretary
Sirus Pussayanavin
Senior Economist
Chanikarn Chaiyasena
Economist
Nakarin Prompat, Acting Director
Financial Product Development Division
Payment Administration Bureau
Risk Management Group Public Infrastructure Project Management and Evaluation Bureau
International Bond Market Policy Division
Anchana Wongsawang Executive Director
Upama Jaihong Executive Director
Public Infrastructure Project Financing Bureau
Bond Market Development Bureau
Legal Advisory Group
Pimpen Ladpli
Sirasa Kanpittaya
Information Technology Center
Public Sector Development Group
Internal Audit Group
Ace Viboolcharern
Public Debt Advisor
Deputy Director-General
Poomsak Aranyakasemsuk
Director-General
Deputy Director-General
Jindarat Viriyataveekul Executive Director
Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Debt Management Bureau 2
Debt Management Bureau 1
Theeraj Athanavanich
Bond Market Advisor
For Further Information : Upama Jaihong
upama@pdmo.go.th
Executive Director of Bond Market Development Bureau
Paroche Hutachareon
paroche@pdmo.go.th
Senior Expert on Bond Market Development
Oraporn Thomya
oraporn@pdmo.go.th
Director of International Bond Market Policy Division
Nakarin Prompat
nakarin@pdmo.go.th
Director of Financial Product Development Division
Sujitra Numthong
sujitra@pdmo.go.th
Director of Fund Management and Bond Market Infrastructure Development Division