THAI BOND MARKET WEEKLY REPORT Public Debt Management Office, Ministry of Finance, Kindom of Thailand Contact : Bond Market Development Bureau (02-271-7999)
HighLights FED คงอัตราดอกเบีย ้ นโยบาย ตามทีน ่ ั กลงทุนคาดการณ์ไว ้ แต่ BOJ ตัดสินใจคงนโยบายทางการเงินในการประชุมเมือ ่ วานนี้ (28 เมษายน) ซึง่ สวนทางกับการคาดการณ์ของตลาดทีค ่ าดว่า BOJ จะใช ้มาตรการผ่อนคลายการเงินเพิม ่ เติมจึงทาให ้ตลาดผันผวน
เล็กน ้อย
May 2, 2559
สานั กเศรษฐกิจการคลัง ปรับลดประมาณการเศรษฐกิจไทยในปี 2559 เหลือเพียงจาก 3.3% จาก 3.7 - 3.8 % เนือ ่ งจากเศรษฐกิจ ไทยทีช ่ ะลอตัวและส่งออกทีล ่ ดลงจากเศรษฐกิจโลกทีไ่ ม่แน่นอน
Inflation Rate
MACRO DATA
Inflation Rate Core Inflation Nominal Inflation Forecast
Policy Rate
YoY(%)
MoM(%)
2013 2014 2015
Source : MOC As of May 2016
Avg. Selling Rate (THB)
Currency
Thai Policy Interest Rate YTD
35.2636 51.4657 40.0929 32.1472 5.4662
USD GBP EUR JPY CNY
EQUITIES
2.90 0.70 2.80
GDP Forecast 2016
1.50%
-2.5% -3.3% 2.1% 6.8% -1.3%
Next Meeting:
3.10 2.8-3.8 3.30
BOT NESDB FPO
11-May-2559
OIL (USD/Barrel)
47.37 45.92
BRENT WTI
Last Update : 25-Mar-2016
PRECIOUS METALS (USD)
1,290.50 17.82
GOLD SILVER
As of 2-May-2559
Source : BOT
1,404.61 16,666.05 17,830.76 2,065.30 10,038.97 21,316.47 6,241.89
SET NIKKEI DJI S&P500 DAX HS FTSE100
Source : NESDB
Major World Currencies
176.70
Source : Bloomberg As of Apr 2016
YoY(%)
0.50% 0.50% 0.00% -0.10%
American Interest Rate (Fed) British Interest Rate (BoE) European Interest Rate (ECB) Japanese Interest Rate (BoJ)
0.78 0.01 0.07 0.55 0.00 - 1.00
INT'L RESERVE THAI (b.USD)
GDP Growth
nd
Source : Bloomberg
As of May 2 , 2559
PUBLIC DEBT DATA GOVT Debt Securities
Public Debt 44.13%
% Mutual Funds 2%
6,005,787.17 THB Mil. Oustanding Debt
3,423,881.65 3,338,010.86 85,870.79
GOVT - Domestic - Foreign
57% 56% 2%
991,470.11
FIDF SOE -G - NG
17% 7% 10%
-134.68 510.67 -645.35
528,522.96
8%
-2,608.22
17,430.10
1%
4.31
6,005,787.17
100%
25,126.50
Others
Financial Institution 3%
Bot 6%
9
6
128%
3.84
Nominal Cost of Debt
4 3
Insurance Company 27%
2
ATR
MW Duration
Source : BOT as of Feb 2016
Nominal Cost of Debt Source : PDMO as of Feb 2016
GOVT Bond Auction Schedule Q2/FY2016 Domestic Bond Market Classified by Issuer
Spread over T-1 Date
Tenor (Year)
Symbol
10 50 20 15 5 30 10 50 15 10 5 30 10 15
LB25DA LB666A LB366A LB296A LB206A LB446A LB25DA LB666A LB296A LB366A LB206A LB446A LB25DA LB296A
Auction Amount (THB Mil.)
Baht Bond 1%
120%
Duration
5
Bond Market Cap. 140%
6.22
ATM
Source : PDMO as of Feb 2016
% Share of GDP
8.93
ATR
7
Contractual Funds 27%
Depository Corporation 14%
NR 14%
9.44
ATM
8
-238.29
1,044,482.35 420,286.39 624,195.96
SFIs
Total
28,103.38 26,743.00 1,360.38
17%
10
Household 5%
(THB Mil.)
ATM, ATR, Duration, Nominal Cost of Debt Government Debt Portfolio
Year / %
Non- profit organization 1%
Chg. from Dec-14
%
(THB Mil.)
Other 1%
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16
Debt to GDP =
GOVT Debt Portfolio
Classified by Type of Investors
Total Allocated CB+NCB (THB Mil.)
Allocated CB (THB Mil.)
greenshoe
NCB (THB Mil.)
BCR
AAY (%)
1.42 3.59 1.51 1.43 5.10 2.62 2.87 3.21 2.53 2.79 1.40 2.12 1.68
2.6207 3.7590 2.9867 2.6938 1.6393 3.1589 2.0340 3.2490 2.0213 1.3694 2.1708 1.6891 2.0594
Spread (bps)
Min. (bps)
Max. (bps)
100% 100%
99% 80%
75 %
60%
24%
40% 20%
12%
2,535,296 THB Mil 778,058 THB Mil.
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
0%
Asian Fin. Crisis
Corp Bond 24%
Bank Loan /GDP
Equity/GDP
Bond Market / GDP
BOT Bond 28%
6-Jan-16 13-Jan-16 20-Jan-16 27-Jan-16 10-Feb-16 17-Feb-16 2-Mar-16 9-Mar-16 16-Mar-16 30-Mar-16 5-Apr-16 5-Apr-16 20-Apr-16 27-Apr-16
14,000 10,000 10,700 10,000 24,000 10,000 13,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 24,000 10,000 16,000 10,000
14,000 10,000 10,700 10,000 23,779 10,000 13,000 10,000 10,000 20,000 10,000 16,000 10,000
14,000 8,325 10,700 10,000 18,900 9,500 13,000 8,000 9,600 20,000 8,518 16,000 10,000
3,779 436 -
1,675 1,100 500 2,000 400 1,482 -
-2.56 -11.18 -7.80 +4.38 -2.36 -18.80 -2.74 -25.13 -3.683 0 -0.07 -20 +1.3 +5.1
2,895,387 THB Mil.
Source : ThaiBMA
Maturity Profile BOT vs GOVT Bond
10%
79%
≤1
-6.63 -1.83 -14.08 -10.38 -11.47 -4.47 +2.00 7.00 -2.79 -1.89 -21.19 -16.69 -2.74 -2.74 -30.73 -22.33 -6.41 -2.81 0.00 0.00 -0.10 -0.30 -25.63 -5.63 -0.76 +0.53 +1.52 +6.62
GoVT Bond 39 % 16%
21%
17%
24%
1<yr≤3
3<yr≤5
5<yr≤10
33%
Top 5 Most Active GOVT Bond No.
Symbol
Outstanding Value (THB Mil.)
4,044,461 THB Mil.
10<yr≤50
Source : ThaiBMA as of Apr 29th, 2016
1 2 3 4 5
Total Trading Value (THB Mil.)
301,994 153,118 306,104 218,683 177,854
LB196A LB206A LB21DA LB176A LB25DA
414,548 411,013 384,159 257,129 240,967
% of
Total Trading value
T/O (เท่า)
16.84% 16.70% 15.61% 10.44% 9.79%
1.37 2.68 1.25 1.18 1.35
Source : ThaiBMA (As of Apr 29 th ,2016 )
GOVT Yield Curve Movement 5%
MPC
3 yr
5 yr
10 yr
20 yr
50 yr
4% 3%
2% 1%
1.5%
3.19% 50-yr 2.30% 20-yr 1.83% 10-yr 1.56% 5-yr 1.44% 3-yr
Source : ThaiBMA (As of Apr 29th ,2016 )
BOND Foreign Yield
SWAP Interest Rate Swap IRS
3.00%
THAI
1-yr
2-yr
5-yr
7-yr
10-yr
US
%
0.79
0.91
1.25
1.46
1.70
EU
%
-0.14
-0.14
0.05
0.29
0.64
JAPAN
%
-0.04
-0.10
-0.05
0.03
0.14
THAILAND
%
1.55
1.59
1.90
2.09
2.29
1-yr
2-yr
5-yr
7-yr
2.50%
US 2.00%
UK 1.50% 1.00%
EURO
0.50%
Cross Currency Swap CCS
JAPAN 0.00% 3m
6m
2-yr
5-yr
10-yr
30-yr
10-yr
THB/USD
%
1.550/1.500 1.540/1.460 1.485/1.335 1.535/1.355
1.485/1.335
EUR/CBS
Mid
-0.30
-0.35
-0.45
-0.46
-0.44
JPY/CBS
Mid
-0.54
-0.64
-0.84
-0.88
-0.84
10-yr (bps)
-0.50% US
-1.00%
UK
EURO
JAPAN
Thailand
3M
6M
2yr
5yr
10yr
30yr
US
0.20%
0.37%
0.77%
1.28%
1.82%
2.67%
Credit Default Swap CDS
6M (bps)
1-yr (bps)
2-yr (bps)
5-yr (bps)
7-yr (bps)
UK
0.45%
0.49%
0.52%
0.97%
1.59%
2.39%
US
22.40
22.36
23.25
23.84
33.55
43.89
EURO
-0.56%
-0.56%
-0.48%
-0.28%
0.28%
1.01%
UK
11.07
12.11
18.58
38.39
56.80
77.00
JAPAN
-0.24%
-0.30%
-0.25%
-0.20%
-0.09%
0.32%
JAPAN
6.51
10.66
16.44
47.45
55.16
72.01
THAILAND
1.36%
1.38%
1.41%
1.56%
1.83%
2.55%
THAILAND
23.12
24.50
45.71
128.33
165.71
th
186.22 th
Source : ThaiBMA , Bloomberg (As of Apr 29 , 2016)
Source : Reuters , Bloomberg (As of Apr 29 , 2016)
Non-Residence Trading NR Holding Weekly
Peers Comparison
THB.Mil.
Percentage share of Non-resident Holding in Local Government Bond
350,000
250,000
Indonesia
40%
2016
300,000
38.40% Dec’ 15
Malaysia
93,249
31.70% Dec’ 15
30%
200,000
84,003 150,000
BOT Bond 78,080 THB mil.
23,052 100,000
Thailand 20%
196,463 129,454
50,000
0 -22,494
30,216 -2,793
13.6% As of Apr'16
117,144
96,738
80,737 21,608
29,642 -1,598 -7,506
-53,807
-50,000
Korea
210
4,919
-27,157
7,991
6,087
9.96%
10%
-30,352
Sep’15
Japan
-18,866
-71,124
9.77%
-100,506
-37,994
0% Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16
-100,000
Sep’ 15
GOVT Bond -5,745 THB mil.
-150,000 Jan 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Feb
2015
Mar
Apr
2016
Source : PDMO (As of Apr 29th, 2016)
Source : PDMO (As of Apr 29th, 2016)
BAHT BOND
72,799 HB Mil.
THE OUTSTANDING BAHT BOND Classified by issuers based on TTM
CLMV
Non-Gov’t
39
8%
%
THB Mil.
Non-Gov’t
(6,500 THB Mil )
28,090 THB Mil.
.
9
%
Government
30000
25Government %
IFIs , International Credit Rating & CGIF
(6,500 THB Mi ) l.
30
IFIs , International Credit Rating & CGIF
(21,590 THB Mil.)
32
%
%
ADB
(23,066)
AFD
MHBK
67
(21,590 THB Mil.)
%
20000
61% 14
KEXIM
9
%
%
10000
(9,584)
8
8
%
%
ADB
(6,330) Hana
(5,668)
AFD
CITI
CBA
CABEI
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
2016
2017
WOORI
HANA
KEXIM WOORI
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
EDL-Gen Lao PDR (Gov,t)
2018
2019
8
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
(5,701)
2020
EDL-Gen
%
(8,000)
%
KEXIM CABEI
WOORI
0
11
(10,000)
2
(1,500)
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
KEXIM
2021
2022
4
(2,800)
(3,000)
%
%
KEXIM
4
%
KEXIM
EDL-Gen
2023
2024
Lao PDR (Gov,t)
2025
Source : PDMO (As of Apr 29th, 2016)